Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Biosphere model'

Uncertainty in model predictions is associated with data, parameters, and model structure. The estimation of these contributions to uncertainty is a critical issue in hydrology. Using a variety of single and multiple criterion methods for sensitivity analysis and inverse modeling, the behaviors of two state-of-the-art land surface models, the Simple Biosphere Model 3 and Noah model, are analyzed. The different algorithms used for sensitivity and inverse modeling are analyzed and compared along with the performance of the land surface models. Generalized sensitivity and variance methods are used for the sensitivity analysis, including the Multi-Objective Generalized Sensitivity Analysis, the Extended Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test, and the method of Sobol. The methods used for the parameter uncertainty estimation are based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations with Metropolis type algorithms and include A Multi-algorithm Genetically Adaptive Multi-objective algorithm, Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis, the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis, and the Multi-objective Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis algorithms. The analysis focuses on the behavior of land surface model predictions for sensible heat, latent heat, and carbon fluxes at the surface. This is done using data from hydrometeorological towers collected at several locations within the Large-Scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia domain (Amazon tropical forest) and at locations in Arizona (semiarid grass and shrub-land). The influence that the specific location exerts upon the model simulation is also analyzed. In addition, the Santarém kilometer 67 site located in the Large-Scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia domain is further analyzed by using datasets with different levels of quality control for evaluating the resulting effects on the performance of the individual models. The method of Sobol was shown to give the best estimates of sensitivity for the variance-based algorithms and tended to be conservative in terms of assigning parameter sensitivity, while the multi-objective generalized sensitivity algorithm gave a more liberal number of sensitive parameters. For the optimization, the Multi-algorithm Genetically Adaptive Multi-objective algorithm consistently resulted in the smallest overall error; however all other algorithms gave similar results. Furthermore the Simple Biosphere Model 3 provided better estimates of the latent heat and the Noah model gave better estimates of the sensible heat.

The climate of West Africa is characterised by a monsoonal system that brings rainfall onto the subcontinent during an annual rainy season. From the late 60's to the mid-90's, rainfall levels significantly below average were observed, which brought severe socio-economic implications. The causes of the uncharacteristically long drought period, and indeed the mechanisms underpinning West African climate were poorly understood at the time, but have since attracted growing attention from the scientific community. Amongst the factors identified as critical is the interaction between the Earth surface and the atmosphere. To investigate these interactions over West Africa we have adopted an approach based upon regional climate modelling, an internationally recognised discipline enabling the representation of past and future climates, and the study of specific meteorological mechanisms. Using the regional climate model MAR, we have carried out simulations of the West African climate for the years 1986, 1987, and 1988. To improve the accuracy with which the model represents the biosphere, a new dataset describing the local vegetation was incorporated and a new scheme for the representation of roots implemented. A measure of the internal variability inherent to all results produced with this, and other such models, was determined. Subsequently, the influence of soil moisture anomalies on the model behaviour was investigated. The latest version of the model was validated by comparing it to observational data for selected years. Our results have prooven the ability of the improved MAR to simulate the West African climate, its monsoon and its spatial and temporal behaviour and provide strong evidence of its suitability for further investigation of the surface-atmosphere interactions over West Africa.

<p>At present, carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems slows the growth rate of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, and thereby reduces the impact of anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions on the climate system. Changes in climate and land use affect terrestrial biosphere structure and functioning at present, and will likely impact on the terrestrial carbon balance during the coming decades - potentially providing a positive feedback to the climate system due to soil carbon releases under a warmer climate. Quantifying changes, and the associated uncertainties, in regional terrestrial carbon budgets resulting from these effects is relevant for the scientific understanding of the Earth system and for long-term climate mitigation strategies.</p> <p>A model describing the relevant processes that govern the terrestrial carbon cycle is a necessary tool to project regional carbon budgets into the future. This study (1) provides an extensive evaluation of the parameter-based uncertainty in model results of a leading terrestrial biosphere model, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVM), against a range of observations and under climate change, thereby complementing existing studies on other aspects of model uncertainty; (2) evaluates different hypotheses to explain the age-related decline in forest growth, both from theoretical and experimental evidence, and introduces the most promising hypothesis into the model; (3) demonstrates how forest statistics can be successfully integrated with process-based modelling to provide long-term constraints on regional-scale forest carbon budget estimates for a European forest case-study; and (4) elucidates the combined effects of land-use and climate changes on the present-day and future terrestrial carbon balance over Europe for four illustrative scenarios - implemented by four general circulation models - using a comprehensive description of different land-use types within the framework of LPJ-DGVM.</p> <p>This study presents a way to assess and reduce uncertainty in process-based terrestrial carbon estimates on a regional scale. The results of this study demonstrate that simulated present-day land-atmosphere carbon fluxes are relatively well constrained, despite considerable uncertainty in modelled net primary production. Process-based terrestrial modelling and forest statistics are successfully combined to improve model-based estimates of vegetation carbon stocks and their change over time. Application of the advanced model for 77 European provinces shows that model-based estimates of biomass development with stand age compare favourably with forest inventory-based estimates for different tree species. Driven by historic changes in climate, atmospheric CO₂ concentration, forest area and wood demand between 1948 and 2000, the model predicts European-scale, present-day age structure of forests, ratio of biomass removals to increment, and vegetation carbon sequestration rates that are consistent with inventory-based estimates. Alternative scenarios of climate and land-use change in the 21^st century suggest carbon sequestration in the European terrestrial biosphere during the coming decades will likely be on magnitudes relevant to climate mitigation strategies. However, the uptake rates are small in comparison to the European emissions from fossil fuel combustion, and will likely decline towards the end of the century. Uncertainty in climate change projections is a key driver for uncertainty in simulated land-atmosphere carbon fluxes and needs to be accounted for in mitigation studies of the terrestrial biosphere.</p><br><p>Kohlenstoffspeicherung in terrestrischen Ökosystemen reduziert derzeit die Wirkung anthropogener CO₂-Emissionen auf das Klimasystem, indem sie die Wachstumsrate der atmosphärischer CO₂-Konzentration verlangsamt. Die heutige terrestrische Kohlenstoffbilanz wird wesentlich von Klima- und Landnutzungsänderungen beeinflusst. Diese Einflussfaktoren werden sich auch in den kommenden Dekaden auf die terrestrische Biosphäre auswirken, und dabei möglicherweise zu einer positiven Rückkopplung zwischen Biosphäre und Klimasystem aufgrund von starken Bodenkohlenstoffverlusten in einem wärmeren Klima führen. Quantitative Abschätzungen der Wirkung dieser Einflussfaktoren - sowie der mit ihnen verbundenen Unsicherheit - auf die terrestrische Kohlenstoffbilanz sind daher sowohl für das Verständnis des Erdsystems, als auch für eine langfristig angelegte Klimaschutzpolitik relevant.</p> <p>Um regionale Kohlenstoffbilanzen in die Zukunft zu projizieren, sind Modelle erforderlich, die die wesentlichen Prozesse des terrestrischen Kohlenstoffkreislaufes beschreiben. Die vorliegende Arbeit (1) analysiert die parameterbasierte Unsicherheit in Modellergebnissen eines der führenden globalen terrestrischen Ökosystemmodelle (LPJ-DGVM) im Vergleich mit unterschiedlichen ökosystemaren Messgrößen, sowie unter Klimawandelprojektionen, und erweitert damit bereits vorliegende Studien zu anderen Aspekten der Modelunsicherheit; (2) diskutiert unter theoretischen und experimentellen Aspekten verschiedene Hypothesen über die altersbedingte Abnahme des Waldwachstums, und implementiert die vielversprechenste Hypothese in das Model; (3) zeigt für eine europäische Fallstudie, wie Waldbestandsstatistiken erfolgreich für eine verbesserte Abschätzung von regionalen Kohlenstoffbilanzen in Wäldern durch prozessbasierten Modelle angewandt werden können; (4) untersucht die Auswirkung möglicher zukünftiger Klima- und Landnutzungsänderungen auf die europäische Kohlenstoffbilanz anhand von vier verschiedenen illustrativen Szenarien, jeweils unter Berücksichtigung von Klimawandelprojektionen vier verschiedener Klimamodelle. Eine erweiterte Version von LPJ-DGVM findet hierfür Anwendung, die eine umfassende Beschreibung der Hauptlandnutzungstypen beinhaltet. </p> <p>Die vorliegende Arbeit stellt einen Ansatz vor, um Unsicherheiten in der prozessbasierten Abschätzung von terrestrischen Kohlenstoffbilanzen auf regionaler Skala zu untersuchen und zu reduzieren. Die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit zeigen, dass der Nettokohlenstoffaustausch zwischen terrestrischer Biosphäre und Atmosphäre unter heutigen klimatischen Bedingungen relativ sicher abgeschätzt werden kann, obwohl erhebliche Unsicherheit über die modelbasierte terrestrische Nettoprimärproduktion existiert. Prozessbasierte Modellierung und Waldbestandsstatistiken wurden erfolgreich kombiniert, um verbesserte Abschätzungen von regionalen Kohlenstoffvorräten und ihrer Änderung mit der Zeit zu ermöglichen. Die Anwendung des angepassten Modells in 77 europäischen Regionen zeigt, dass modellbasierte Abschätzungen des Biomasseaufwuchses in Wäldern weitgehend mit inventarbasierten Abschätzungen für verschiede Baumarten übereinstimmen. Unter Berücksichtigung von historischen Änderungen in Klima, atmosphärischem CO₂-Gehalt, Waldfläche und Holzernte (1948-2000) reproduziert das Model auf europäischer Ebene die heutigen, auf Bestandsstatistiken beruhenden, Abschätzungen von Waldaltersstruktur, das Verhältnis von Zuwachs und Entnahme von Biomasse, sowie die Speicherungsraten im Kohlenstoffspeicher der Vegetation. Alternative Szenarien von zukünftigen Landnutzungs- und Klimaänderungen legen nahe, dass die Kohlenstoffaufnahme der europäischen terrestrischen Biosphäre von relevanter Größenordnung für Klimaschutzstrategien sind. Die Speicherungsraten sind jedoch klein im Vergleich zu den absoluten europäischen CO₂-Emissionen, und nehmen zudem sehr wahrscheinlich gegen Ende des 21. Jahrhunderts ab. Unsicherheiten in Klimaprojektionen sind eine Hauptursache für die Unsicherheiten in den modellbasierten Abschätzungen des zukünftigen Nettokohlenstoffaustausches und müssen daher in Klimaschutzanalysen der terrestrischen Biosphäre berücksichtigt werden.</p>

Como contribución a la evaluación de la sostenibilidad de los sistemas socioecológicos (SES) insulares, se ha desarrollado un modelo dinámico para la sostenibilidad de la Reserva de la Biosfera de Fuerteventura (FSM) bajo el enfoque de los sistemas dinámicos. El FSM, calibrado para el periodo 1996-2011, superó los tests de bondad de ajuste para las 20 variables con datos observados disponibles, y otros procesos de validación, lo que apoya la utilidad del modelo como herramienta para el análisis de la sostenibilidad en los SES. El FSM, estructurado en 5 sectores (socio-turístico, usos del suelo, biodiversidad, calidad ambiental y recursos hídricos), permitió la integración de 37 indicadores de sostenibilidad, facilitando el análisis de las interacciones entre variables clave e indicadores. Los resultados permiten cuantificar contradicciones potenciales, que podrían pasar desapercibidas usando indicadores estáticos. El FSM se ha aplicado a la evaluación del Plan de Acción de la Reserva de la Biosfera de Fuerteventura, en relación a ciertos objetivos de sostenibilidad, indicadores y medidas de gestión. Se ha analizado el comportamiento de 10 indicadores y sus umbrales bajo 8 medidas para el periodo 2012-2025. Los resultados muestran que todas las medidas excederían sistemáticamente los umbrales de 4 indicadores. Por tanto, esas medidas serían insuficientes para abordar algunos objetivos clave relacionados con el paisaje y la energía. Los resultados de la simulación permiten priorizar entre esas medidas usando los 6 indicadores restantes. Siguiendo la norma “Umbral superado, medida desechada”, solo una de las opciones, la producción de forraje rehabilitando gavias abandonadas para alimentar al ganado, no superaría ninguno de estos seis umbrales y podría asignársele la prioridad más alta. Sin embargo, esta medida presentaría ciertos efectos negativos sobre otros indicadores, por lo que se requeriría algunas medidas compensatorias. Se ha demostrado la utilidad del análisis de sensibilidad (AS) como herramienta en el desarrollo y aplicación de modelos socioecológicos. El AS permitió: i) La mejora de la formulación del modelo aplicando AS local. Se eliminaron 8 parámetros insensibles, haciendo el modelo más compacto. ii) Una evaluación detallada de la robustez del modelo. La simulación Monte Carlo mostró una respuesta de baja a moderada para 16 de las 18 variables clave del modelo, lo que respalda la confianza en sus resultados. iii) La identificación de los parámetros más reactivos. Los resultados muestran el potencial de estos parámetros para desarrollar medidas más efectivas que otras propuestas por diferentes actores para un mismo objetivo, como la reducción de la degradación de la vegetación de alta calidad, y el control del desarrollo urbano-turístico. iv) La incorporación explícita de la incertidumbre a la evaluación de políticas y escenarios económicos y de cambio climático. Las conclusiones sobre si ciertos umbrales podrían ser excedidos podrían variar al tener en cuenta la incertidumbre. Por tanto, el riesgo potencial de que algún umbral de sostenibilidad pudiera superarse bajo las medidas analizadas podría pasar desapercibido si la incertidumbre no se considerase, aumentando la vulnerabilidad del sistema. Como ejemplo de aplicación del FSM a un sector específico, se ha abordado la dinámica del hábitat potencial de la hubara. Los resultados de la simulación son consistentes con las estimaciones disponibles para los años 1996, 2002 y 2011, con una pérdida alrededor del 13% entre 1996-2011. El escenario tendencial (BAU) supondría una pérdida entorno al 20% del hábitat entre 2012-2025. Esta pérdida sería alrededor de un 13% mayor y un 12% menor que BAU, bajo los escenarios de crecimiento y recesión económica, respectivamente. Además, el uso del modelo permitió la identificación de contradicciones entre medidas de conservación del hábitat de la hubara y otras políticas ambientales, como la de rehabilitación de gavias.<br>As a contribution to the sustainability assessment of insular socio-ecological systems (SES), a dynamic model of the sustainability of Fuerteventura Biosphere Reserve (FSM) has been developed under the system dynamics approach. The FSM, calibrated for the 1996-2011 period, was satisfactorily tested regarding goodness of fit for 20 variables with available observed data series. This and other testing procedures support the usefulness of the model as a tool to understand this SES and analyse its sustainability. The FSM, structured in five sectors (socio-tourist, land uses, flagship species, environmental quality and water resources), enabled the integration of 37 sustainability indicators, which facilitates an integral analysis of the interactions between key variables and indicators. Moreover, the results allowed to quantify potential trade-offs which may often go unnoticed using static indicators. The FSM was applied to assess the Fuerteventura Biosphere Reserve Action Plan, regarding proposed environmental sustainability goals, indicators and policy measures. The behaviour of ten indicators, whose sustainability thresholds were set out, was analysed under eight measures for the 2012-2025 period. The results showed that all these policy measures would systematically exceed the sustainability thresholds of four indicators. It may be concluded that these policy measures are insufficient to address some key goals related to landscape and energy issues. Simulation results allowed to prioritise among these measures using the remaining six indicators and their sustainability thresholds. Following the rule “Threshold out, measure out”, only 1 out of these measures, aimed at cropping fodder on restored traditional agro-landscapes to feed cattle, would not see any of these thresholds exceeded. Thus, it might be assigned the highest priority. Nevertheless, this option would present certain trade-offs regarding other indicators, which would require some compensation measures. The sensitivity analysis (SA) has revealed as a powerful tool in all stages of model development and application of SES models. The SA allowed: i) The improvement of the model formulation with the One factor At Time technique. Eight no sensitive parameters were removed, making the model more compact and parsimonious. ii) A detailed assessment of robustness. The Monte Carlo simulations showed a low to moderate response for 16 out of the 18 target model variables to changes in parameters values, which support enough confidence on model outcomes. iii) The identification of the most responsive parameters (leverage points). Results point to the potential of using these leverage points to develop more effective measures as compared with other measures with the same objective proposed by different agents, regarding the objective of reducing grazing in the high quality natural vegetation and the objective of controlling the tourist accommodations growth. vi) The explicit consideration of the uncertainty in the assessment of policies and scenarios, as socio-economic and climate change. Conclusions regarding whether certain sustainability thresholds might be exceeded may change when uncertainty is taken into account. Therefore, the potential risks related to the overcome of sustainability thresholds may go unnoticed without considering the uncertainty, increasing the vulnerability of the system. As an example of a FSM application for an in-depth understanding of specific sectors, the dynamics of the houbara potential habitat has been addressed. Simulation results are consistent with the available estimations for years 1996, 2002 and 2011, showing a loss around 13% along the 1996-2011 period. The BAU scenario would give rise to almost 20% of habitat loss between 2012-2025, whereas the loss would be around 13% higher and 12% lower than BAU for the economic growth and recession scenarios, respectively. Moreover, the use of the model has allowed to identify trade-offs between the conservation of the houbara habitat and other environmental policies, as traditional farming system restoration.

In nie dagewesener Größenordnung greift der Mensch durch die Verbrennung fossiler Energieträger und der weiträumigen Umgestaltung der Landoberfläche in die globale Umwelt ein. Klimawandel und Übernutzung natürlicher Ressourcen könnten schon in diesem Jahrhundert die Anpassungsfähigkeiten vieler ökologischer und sozialer Systeme übersteigen und somit zu Konflikten und politischer Destabilisierung führen. Vor diesem Hintergrund soll diese Studie zu einem besseren Verständnis der wichtigsten globalen Triebkräfte beitragen, die die Entwicklung der terrestrischen Biosphäre in diesem Jahrhundert prägen werden: Klimawandel und menschliche Landnutzung. Auf der Basis eines Dynamischen Globalen Vegetationsmodells werden im ersten Teil der vorliegenden Arbeit zwei große klimatische Störungen des globalen Kohlenstoffkreislaufs untersucht, die innerhalb der letzten drei Jahrzehnte beobachtet wurden. Im Fordergrund steht die Frage, wie sich die Veränderungen von Temperatur-, Niederschlags- und Strahlungsbedingungen auf pflanzliche Produktivität und Zersetzungsprozesse im Boden auswirkten. Es zeigt sich, dass vermehrte Kohlenstoffspeicherung in der Landbiosphäre den überwiegenden Teil der atmosphärischen CO2 Anomalien erklärt. Der zweite Teil dieser Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit der weltweit steigenden Nachfrage nach Bioenergie, die aufgrund des flächenintensiven Anbaus von Biomasse zur wichtigsten Triebkraft für zukünftige Landnutzungsänderungen werden könnte. Aus der Kombination von Vegetationsmodellierung und räumlichen Datenanalysen werden globale Bioenergiepotentiale unter Berücksichtigung verschiedener Nachhaltigkeitsanforderungen bestimmt und mögliche ökologische Auswirkungen des großräumigen Anbaus von Energiepflanzen abgeschätzt. Im Jahr 2050 könnten demnach 15-25% des weltweiten Energiebedarfs durch Bioenergie abgedeckt werden. Dafür müssten allerdings natürliche Ökosysteme in großem Umfang in Agrarland umgewandelt werden.<br>Human activities, primarily the combustion of fossil fuels and the global modification of the land surface, are transforming the Earth System at unprecedented scale. Climate change and the overexploitation of natural resources may soon overwhelm the adaptive capacities of many ecosystems and societies, which could lead to substantial losses in human well-being and political destabilization. In this context, it is the goal of this thesis to contribute to a better understanding of the most important global drivers that will determine the future of the land biosphere during this century: climate change and human land use. Based on a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM), the first part of this thesis examines two large climatic disturbances of the terrestrial carbon cycle that were observed during the last three decades. These analyses focus on the effects of changes in temperature, precipitation and radiation on plant productivity and soil decomposition. Results indicate that increased carbon storage in the land biosphere explains the most part of the atmospheric CO2 anomaly. The second part of this thesis addresses the worldwide increasing demand for bioenergy that may become the most important driver of future land use change due to the large area requirements of biomass cultivation. A combination of vegetation modeling and spatial data analyses is used to assess global bioenergy potentials that consider various sustainability requirements for food security, biodiversity protection and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and to evaluate the environmental impacts of large-scale energy crop cultivation. The results indicate that bioenergy may provide between 15 and 25% of the global energy demand in 2050. Exploiting these potentials, however, requires the conversion of large amounts of natural vegetation into agricultural land affecting a large number of ecosystems already fragmented and degraded by land use change.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2007.<br>Dr. Curry, Judy, Committee Member ; Dr. Webster, Peter, Committee Member ; Dr. Weber, Rodney, Committee Member ; Dr. Ingall, Ellery, Committee Member ; Dr. Robert Dickinson, Committee Chair.

Es gibt zwei Hauptpfade, über die der Mensch die terrestrische Biosphäre verändert: 1) direkt durch Landnutzungswandel (LNW) und 2) indirekt durch Klimawandel (KW), welcher seinerseits zu Ökosystemveränderungen führt. Die vorliegende Dissertation unternimmt den Versuch, die vom Menschen über beide diese Pfade verursachten Veränderungen konsistent und quantitativ zu bestimmen. Die Analyse basiert auf einem integrierten Indikator für makro-skalige Veränderungen der biogeochemikalischen Eigenschaften und der Ökosystemstruktur. Große Verschiebungen bei diesen grundlegenden Bausteinen der Biosphäre bedeuten ein Risiko für komplexere Ökosystemeigenschaften, da sie möglicherweise lange bestehende biotische Interaktionen unterbrechen. Die Arbeit stützt sich auf Simulationen mit dem dynamischen globalen Vegetations-, Agrar- und Hydrologiemodell LPJmL, um zu bestimmen, wie biogeochemische Eigenschaften und die Ökosystemstruktur auf historischen LNW und KW reagiert haben. Für die Zukunftsprojektionen wird LPJmL mit einer großen Anzahl an Klima- und Landnutzungsszenarien angetrieben. Laut den Simulationsergebnissen haben sich schwere Ökosystemveränderungen durch LNW und KW von lediglich 0,5% um 1700 auf 25-31% der Landoberfläche heute ausgedehnt. Landnutzung war in der Vergangenheit der wichtigste anthropogene Treiber schwerer Ökosystemveränderungen. Für das 21. Jahrhundert zeigen die Ergebnisse, dass KW voraussichtlich in allen außer den ambitioniertesten Mitigationsszenarien den Platz als Haupttreiber schwerer Ökosystemveränderungen übernehmen wird. Einige Landnutzungsszenarien nehmen an, dass zukünftige Effizienzsteigerungen trotz Bevölkerungswachtum eine Verringerung der landwirtschaftlichen Fläche ermöglichen. Doch auch verminderte LNW-Auswirkungen werden wahrscheinlich nicht ausreichen, um die Zunahme von Klimafolgen zu kompensieren, so dass die vom Menschen verursachte Transformation der Biosphäre in diesem Jahrhundert wahrscheinlich unabhängig vom Szenario wachsen wird.<br>There are two major pathways of human interference with the terrestrial biosphere: 1) directly through land use change (LUC) and 2) indirectly through anthropogenic climate change (CC) which in turn drives ecosystem change. This dissertation presents an attempt to assess human-induced biosphere change through both these pathways in a consistent and quantitative way. The analysis is based on an integrated indicator of macro-scale changes in biogeochemical characteristics and ecosystem structure. Large shifts in these basic building blocks of the biosphere are taken to indicate a risk to more complex ecosystem properties as they potentially disrupt long-standing biotic interactions. This dissertation relies on simulations with the dynamic global vegetation, agriculture and hydrology model LPJmL to quantify how biogeochemical characteristics and ecosystem structure have responded to historical LUC and CC. For future projections LPJmL is driven by a large number of CC and LUC scenarios, using the same indicator to measure the impact on the biosphere. Simulation results show that major impacts on the biosphere from CC and LUC have expanded from merely 0.5% of the land surface in 1700 to 25-31% of the land surface today. Land use has been the main anthropogenic driver causing major ecosystem change in the past. For the future, results show that CC is expected to take over as the main anthropogenic driver of major ecosystem change during this century in all but the most ambitious climate mitigation scenarios. Despite a growing world population, some land use scenarios project that future efficiency improvements will allow for a reduction of agricultural land and hence a reduction of the impact of LUC on the terrestrial biosphere. Yet, results also show that reduced LUC impacts will likely not be able to compensate for the increase in CC impacts, and human-induced transformation of the biosphere is likely to grow during this century regardless of the considered scenario.

A comprehensive hydrological study of large watersheds in Africa e.g. the Congo basin and the Nile basin has not been vigorously pursued for various reasons. One of the major reasons is the lack of adequate modeling tools that would not be very demanding in terms of input data needs and yet inclusive enough to cover such wide extents (over 3 million square kilometers for the Congo basin). Using a coupled run of the Community Atmospheric model (CAM3) and Community Land Model (CLM3) components of the Community Climate System of Models (CCSM), this study looks into the spatial and temporal variation of precipitation and river runoff in the Congo basin in the light of increasing trends in deforestation of the tropical forests. The effect of deforestation on precipitation and runoff is investigated by changing the land cover-type from the current configuration of broadleaf evergreen/deciduous, non-Artic grass and corn to a mostly grass type of vegetation. Discharge simulation for the river Congo is centered at the point of entrance to the Atlantic Ocean. Although the CLM3 does not presently simulate the observed river runoff to within at least one standard deviation it gives an opportunity to iteratively improve on the land surface parameterization with a possibility of future accurate prediction of mean monthly river runoffs under varying climate scenarios and land use practices. When forced with the National Center for Environment and Prediction (NCEP) re-analysis data the CLM3 runoff simulation results are relatively more stable and much closer to the observed. An improved CLM3 when coupled to CAM3 or other Global Climate Models is definitely a better tool for investigative studies on the regional hydrological cycle in comparison to the traditional methods. There was a slight reduction in rainfall in the first experiment which mimicked a severe form of deforestation and a slight increase in rainfall following low level of deforestation. These changes in rainfall were however statistically insignificant when compared to the control simulation. There was notable heterogeneity in the spatial distribution of the changes in rainfall following deforestation.

A study was undertaken to explore relationships between wetland characteristics which make them efficient water purifiers versus their ability to serve as wildlife habitat. The effects of designing constructed wetlands for improved habitat on water treatment efficiencies were quantified. Results indicate that some sacrifice in treatment efficiency is required and that the degree of efficiency reduction is dependant upon pollutant loading rates. However, sacrifice in efficiency is much smaller than increase in habitat quality, and can be offset by increasing wetland area. A practical, theoretical application was then attempted.

Cette thèse se propose de tenter d’évaluer les opportunités de l’économie circulaire à l’échelle territoriale et d’y engager le rôle que jouent les cycles biogéochimiques, les systèmes économiques et les frontières entre l’économie et l’environnement au cours du projet de transformation du centre de traitement de déchets ménagers à Ivry-Paris XVIII. Pour y parvenir, on peut adopter trois dimensions différentes. L’une, inspirée par la définition de biosphère proposée par Vernadsky, analyse le parcours des molécules dans la biosphère. Les deuxième, plus proche de la perspective privilégiée par Sraffa et Leontief, conduit à reconstituer une historie de la pensée économique sur la base de l’interface entre l’économie et l’environnement. La troisième, inspirée de la méthode de Jason Moore, consiste à confronter les positionnements des acteurs autour de la régulation des frontières entre les processus d’appropriation de l’économie et la préservation de l’environnement.Répondrons alors à la question suivante : Quelle circularité dans les grands cycles de la biosphère?. On peut constater que certain parcours de molécules peuvent être circulaires et/ou linéales en fonction de la temporalité de cycle. Cette notion du temps de cycle nous a aidé à cadrer les discussions sur la mesure des cycles, mais sur tout fourni un cadre pour la compréhension de la structure de la relation autour du sujet des opportunités d'économie circulaire à Paris.Nous nous proposons d’étudier une définition contextuelle de l’économie circulaire : un cadre d’analyse durable ?. La question de la nécessité d’une approche holistique pour étudier les cycles de la nature, est aussi ancienne que l’économie. Ce qui est en jeu derrière le capitalisme, c’est sa capacité de porter la vie, on se reporte à l’ouvrage L’économie et le vivant de René Passet. Il convient donc de se placer dans une perspective holistique des concepts utilisés pour l’économie écologique et l’écologie industrielle.Revenons au prix et à la structure de valeur, quel système de valeur dans les bouclages de flux entre la nature et l’économie?. La thèse propose un cadre conceptuelle d’analyse pour explorer les étapes permettant d’élaborer sa stratégie d’économie circulaire en utilisant les trois dimensions d’analyse. L’application du modèle d’économie circulaire a pour intérêt de faciliter l’identification et le choix d’un ensemble cohérent d’indicateurs interdépendants (système d’indicateurs) permettant la caractérisation des différentes dimensions de bouclage de flux de matière et d’énergie. Il est souvent possible de mesurer le bouclage des certains processus en utilisant les indicateurs proposés par Liu Yifang et pour la fondation Ellen MacArthur.Répondrons alors à la question suivante : Quel projet de transformation du centre Ivry-Paris XIII pour demain, alors que la gouvernance sur les frontières entre l’économie et l’environnement évolue ?. Pour répondre à cette question, nous avons exploré trois cas d'étude : 1. Le cas d’une mise en décharge du déchet sans mécanismes de bouclage. 2. Le cas d’un compostage urbain qui considère un bouclage de flux de la matière. 3. Le cas d’une incinération de déchets qui examine un bouclage de flux d'énergie. Le passage de l’incinération vers une variation plus vertueuse de compostage urbain a été fait en utilisant un compostage urbain de proximité (bénévole). Nous devons constater que le prix de vente du compost pose un problème d’équilibre financier dans le système de la valeur du compostage et donc, éventuellement des subventions seront nécessaires à sa bonne marche. Ensuite la tonne de compost écoulée peut être subventionnée, à hauteur du prix de la mise en décharge. Finalement, le projet de reconstruction de l’usine de traitement d’Ivry-Paris XIII montre aussi une certaine complexité d'interaction entre acteurs publics, privés, et la société civile, qui pose la question des capacités de concertation de l’État<br>1. Introduction : This thesis attempts to evaluate the opportunities of the circular economy at the territorial scale and to engage the role of biogeochemical cycles, economic systems and the institutional boundaries between the environment and the economy, during the transformation project of the waste treatment center at Ivry-Paris XVIII. To achieve this thesis, three different dimensions can be taken into consideration. The first one, inspired by the definition of biosphere proposed by Vernadsky, analyzes the pathways of molecules such as nitrogen in the biosphere. The second one, closer to the perspective supported by Sraffa and Leontief, leads to reconstruct a history of economics based on the interface between economy and environment. The third one, inspired by Moore's dialectical method, is to confront the positioning of the actors around the regulation of the boundaries between the processes of appropriation of the economy and the preservation of the environment.2. Methodology : The fourth part of the thesis aims at proposing a conceptual framework of successive or simultaneous steps to develop its strategy of circular economy using the three analysis dimensions, In this context, The thesis proposes a Sraffa’s typology of ten structures of the system to formalize economic-physical relations.The application of the circular economy model has the advantage of facilitating the identification and selection of a coherent set of interdependent indicators (system of indicators) enabling the characterization of the different dimensions of the close of material and energy flows. It is often possible to measure the closure of the loops of certain processes using indicators proposed by Liu Yifang and the Ellen MacArthur Foundation.3. Case of study - What Ivry-Paris XIII plant project would suit for tomorrow? : To answer this question, we explored three cases of study. 1. The case of landfilling of waste without looping mechanisms, 2. The case of urban composting which considers close the loops of the matter flow. 3. The case of incineration of waste which examines looping of energy flows.On the basis of the results of the indicators, our three case studies correspond to different flows configurations in the same territory.The move from incineration to urban composting has been explained on the basis of non-profit urban composting. This volunteer characteristic of the house composting can be illustrated by a Sraffian profit rate equal to zero. We must note that the selling price of compost poses a financial problem in the value system and hence subsidies will be necessary for its smooth running. Then, the ton of compost can be subsidized, at the price of a landfill.We will also be able to propose an alternative subsidy to household composting therefore; an industrial composting that can be carried out by a recycling company such as Bio Yvelines Services. In addition, the transition to the incineration can be managed by the Metropolitan Household Waste Agency (Syctom). The project of rebuilding the Ivry-Paris XIII treatment plant also shows a certain complexity of interaction between public and private actors and civil society, which raises the question of the state's capacity for a public discussion

I. An original methodological discussion is proposed on the problem of the typology of tropical rain forest’s plant communities, based on the study of forest types across gradients of continentality and elevation, within Atlantic central Africa. These investigations were based on the statement that the main problems in forest typology are related to the non-zonal or zonal character of the different vegetation types and to non considering the relations and differences between forest strata.<p><p>II. Field data consisted in phytosociological homogeneous sample plots localized within different recognized phytogeographical entities, in a region of tropical Africa where these entities are known to be well conserved. A total of 37 such plots were inventoried in the region extending from the littoral forests of Ndoté, Equatorial Guinea, which are wet evergreen forests, to the continental forests of the Dja, Cameroon, known as evergreen seasonal forests. The studied region also included the oriental Atlantic forests of Equatorial Guinea, known as moist evergreen forests or caesalp forests. In various parts of this continentality gradient, some plots were localized within climax non-zonal formations, namely the submontane rain forests. The emphasis was put on the vegetation of the Monte Alén National Park.<p><p>The sampling methodology was willing to be as "complete ", including all strata, "quantitative ", enumerating all individuals, and "representative ", within each stratum, as possible. These multi-layers plots were realised using nested sub-plots, with a sampling size of 100 individuals for every ligneous stratum recognized (dominant trees, dominated trees and shrubs) and a sampling size of 200m² for the herbaceous and suffrutex stratum.<p><p>Forest types were defined independently for each stratum and the differences were analysed. A method was proposed for the simultaneous analysis of all floristic data, converting and standardizing the values from ligneous strata, on the one hand, and from understorey strata, on the other hand.<p><p>III. Ten forest types were described using IndVal and discussed in the general context of the guineo-congolian region, from a syntaxonomic view point (agglomerative classification) and from a phytogeographical view point (divisive classification). Homologies between these two approaches are described. The proposed phytogeographical system is based on an "open " conception of hierarchical classifications, combining advantages of agglomerative and divisive classifications. In concrete terms, the non-zonal criteria, for example the submontane variants, are categorised separately and in analogy with the zonal criteria, related to the usual phytochoria.<p><p>Analysis of ecological relationships for the 10 communities showed that the main variables related to the floristic variability in our mainland rain forests are elevation, rainfall, hygrometry (estimated using bryophytes cover levels) and distance to the ocean. The two extremes on the vertical microclimatic gradient, dominant trees stratum and herbaceous stratum, give similar typologies, however canonical analysis showed that for the herbaceous layer, non-zonal variables (hygrometry and elevation) were gaining more importance when the influence of the two zonal variables was attenuated. In every case, spatial autocorrelation was less important than the environment in explaining floristic variability but its role increased in the spatial arrangement of understorey species, whose dispersal capacity is generally lower than canopy trees. The phytosociological, phytogeographical and ecological description of forest types is accompanied by a physiognomical description using biological types spectrum, as well as architectural models, leaf sizes, etc.<p><p>With regard to diversity, we have demonstrated that species richness was higher from upper to lower strata because of the accumulation in lower strata of species from various strata. On the other hand, the proper stratum diversity, i.e. the structural set, decreased from dominant trees to shrubs. The proper diversity of the herb layer showed relatively high figures mainly due to the higher individual density in relation to the existence of microstrata. Within the 37 sample plots, 1,050 taxa have been identified to species or morpho-species levels, for a total of 25,750 individuals. These taxa represent 442 genus among 104 families. The richest forest type is found on the foothills of the Niefang range, on the windward side. This forest type is also characterised by a high number of oligotypic genus and by species belonging to functional types indicators of glacial refuges. These functional types are defined on the basis of the dispersal capacity and on kind of stand needed for effective germination. We formulated the hypothesis that this kind of "foothills refuge ", characterised by his zonal nature, could have been one of the rare refuges for species from mainland rain forests, while montane and fluvial refuges would mainly have preserved species from non-zonal forest types: (sub)montane and riverine.<p><p>Based on indicator species of submontane forests, a potential distribution map of this forest type has been realised at the Atlantic central African scale. More than 400 submontane forest localities have been mapped. These forests begin at 400m of altitude near the ocean, and progressively at higher altitude for increasing distance to the ocean. Many lowland localities also comprised submontane species, which could indicate the existence of ecological transgressions. These transgressions would allow migratory tracks for submontane species between isolated mountain ranges, not only during glacial periods, through heights at the northern and southern borders of the congo basin, but also contemporarily through the lowland riverine forest network, in the centre of this basin. Finally, a special attention has been attributed to littoral forests and to some cases of choroecological transgressions, coupled to the ecological equalization phenomenon.<p><br>Doctorat en sciences agronomiques et ingénierie biologique<br>info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Sustainability has been characterized and explored mostly from an environmental standpoint, with relatively less attention paid to social and economic dimensions. Because many sustainability organizations have grown out of the environmental movement, they tend to emphasize environmental priorities and retain many of the organizational strategies that were pioneered when the focus was on environmental conservation. However, to attain a more socially and economically informed environmental practice, broader procedural aspects, including recognition and participation, and substantive aspects, including issues of social need, distribution of wealth, and economic opportunity, need to be addressed as these matters are intimately linked to environmental concerns. In this thesis, I examined sustainability organizations against the concept of ‘just sustainability’, with specific consideration paid to uniting the substantive concerns of sustainability with the procedural concerns of environmental justice. I focused my examination on model forests and UNESCO biosphere reserves located in the Maritime Provinces of Canada, an area of high economic vulnerability and low political power. By looking to governance directives from environmental justice, entrepreneurship, and community development, I conducted a multi-case study analysis with organizations that have a mandate to address the environmental, social and economic imperatives of sustainability. Through engaging these organizations in a comparative learning situation, I was able to achieve the following objectives, to: i) assess the governance strategies used within these organizations against just sustainability theory; ii) understand the challenges faced by place-based organizations and examine strategies to better improve local understanding, community empowerment, as well as sustainability outcomes; and iii) assess the feasibility - conceptually and empirically – of incorporating social entrepreneurship into the governance practices of sustainability organizations to bring together the benefits of both approaches. The findings of this thesis make valuable contributions to the empirical evidence needed to advance our understanding of just sustainability, both conceptually and in practice. Overall, my findings point to the importance of understanding and improving our practice of sustainability governance through identifying and offering examples of innovative governance arrangements that are better able to address procedural and substantive concerns. Findings show that the stakeholder model typically used by biosphere reserves and model forests contributes to systemic challenges that limit procedural justice in these organizations. By looking to other literatures, including community development and social entrepreneurship, and to lessons learned from other place-based organizations, I propose ways to adapt governance strategies to improve community engagement and organizational outcomes, including a framework to inform place-based governance for just sustainability and a “hybrid model” that captures the benefits of stakeholder representation and social enterprise. This study speaks to the need for researchers and practitioners seeking to advance sustainability governance to extend their understanding beyond environmental sustainability to embrace more social dimensions. This thesis demonstrates the value of looking to broad literatures and new models to inform sustainability governance and encourage the adoption of new ways of thinking, new strategies, and new tools to help advance sustainability.

Increasing atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gasses coupled to the accelerated rate of global warming puts plants and ecosystems under the strain of a rapidly changing abiotic environment. Understanding the impacts of changing global climate is a strong focus of plant science and the establishment of more resilient crop variants is an important goal for breeding programs. Our understanding of plant responses and acclimation to abiotic conditions has improved substantially over the last decades but the combination of a complex abiotic environment and high biological diversity, both on molecular as well as on species level, leaves us still with a lot of uncertainties. The aim of this doctoral thesis was to establish a link between plant thermal responses and the carbon-nitrogen balance of plants. The work in this thesis focused on ecologically significant species of the boreal region: Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris and Betula pendula; and Betula utilis, which is one of the prominent tree species in the high altitudes of the Himalayas. The results presented demonstrate that sub-optimal temperatures combined with other abiotic factors can have additive effects that are not easily deducible from the effect of the two factors separately. Low nitrogen availability enhanced the negative effect of low temperature, while elevated CO2 enhanced plant growth under moderate increases in temperatures but under a more extreme temperature increase it exacerbated the negative effect of heat. I also show evidence that species, despite being grouped into the same functional group or inhabiting the same biome can have different thresholds to temperature and to shifts in the C/N balance of their environment and that these differences can, to some extent, be explained by their differential growth strategies. Furthermore, I demonstrate results supporting the hypothesis that the C-N fluxes between mycorrhizal fungi and tree are strongly dependent on the C and N in the environment, highlighting the significance of the tree-mycorrhiza associations in the C sequestration capacity of the boreal region. In this thesis I also present a generalised empirically based mathematical model that can describe the respiration-temperature response of plant functional types or biomes with high precision, giving a more accurate estimate of NPP when implemented in global climate models, and has the potential to incorporate the thermal acclimation of respiration, further increasing the precision of estimating carbon fluxes under future warming temperatures. My results provide novel insights into the interactive temperature-carbon-nitrogen responses of plants, taking a step towards better understanding the response of plants and forests to future climates.<br>Ökande atmosfäriskt CO2 och andra växthusgaser kopplade till den accelererande globala uppvärmningen utsätter växter och ekosystem för stressen av en snabbt förändrande abiotisk miljö. Att förstå påverkan av ett globalt klimat i förändring står i fokus inom växtforskning och utvecklandet av mer motståndskraftiga grödor är ett viktigt mål inom programmen för växtförädling. Vår förståelse av växters responser och acklimatisering till abiotiska förhållanden har förbättrats avsevärt under de senaste decennierna, men på grund av kombinationen av en komplex abiotisk miljö och stor biologisk mångfald, både på molekylär nivå såväl som på art-nivå, kvarstår en del frågetecken. Syftet med denna avhandling var att upprätta ett samband mellan växters responser på temperaturförändringar och kol-kvävebalansen hos växter. Arbetet i denna avhandling inriktades på ekologiskt betydande arter i den boreala regionen, Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris and Betula pendula; samt Betula utilis som är en av de framträdande trädarterna på höga höjder i Himalaya. Resultaten som presenteras visar att suboptimala temperaturer i kombination med andra abiotiska faktorer kan ha additiva effekter som inte enkelt kan härledas från effekten av de två faktorerna var för sig. Låg kvävetillgänglighet ökade den negativa effekten av låg temperatur, medan förhöjd CO2-halt förbättrade planttillväxt under måttliga temperaturökningar, men under en mer extrem temperaturökning förvärrades dock den negativa effekten av värme. Jag framför även bevis på att arter, trots att de grupperas i samma funktionella grupp eller finns inom samma biom, kan ha olika tröskelvärden beträffande temperatur och förskjutningar i C/N-balansen i sin miljö och att dessa skillnader, i viss utsträckning, kan förklaras av deras olika tillväxtstrategier. Vidare visar jag resultat som stöder hypotesen att C-N - flöden mellan mykorrhiza och träd är starkt beroende av C och N i miljön. Detta belyser i sin tur betydelsen av samarbetet mellan träd och mykorrhiza gällande kolbindningskapaciteten i den boreala regionen. I denna avhandling presenterar jag även en generaliserad empiriskt baserad matematisk modell som med hög precision kan beskriva respiration-temperatur svar av växtfunktionella typer eller biom, vilken ger en mer exakt uppskattning av NPP i globala klimatmodeller. Mina resultat åstadkommer nya insikter i de interaktiva temperatur-kol-kväve-responserna hos växter, och tar ett steg mot bättre förståelse för växters och skogars reaktion på framtida klimat.