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Journal articles on the topic 'Chronological modelling'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 4 June 2021

Last updated: 13 February 2022

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Strien, Hans-Christoph. "‘Robust chronologies’ or ‘Bayesian illusion’? Some critical remarks on the use of chronological modelling." Documenta Praehistorica 46 (December 6, 2019): 204–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.4312/dp.46-13.

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The explanatory power of Bayesian chronological modelling is often overestimated, leading to an uncritical belief in the reliability of each isolated model without the necessary look at archaeological connections between different models. The methodical pitfalls of this approach, especially in combination with inaccurate use of typochronological methods, are highlighted for Linear Pottery Culture (ger. Linienbandkeramik – LBK) and Middle Neolithic chronological models from Central Europe (Jakucs et al. 2016; Denaire et al. 2017; Bánffy et al. 2018). A more critical approach to Bayesian modelling, considering possible mathematical artefacts and the deficits of the actual calibration curve as well as the inherent imprecision of the used typochronological dates, seems to be required.

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Zaborowicz, Katarzyna, Barbara Biedziak, Aneta Olszewska, and Maciej Zaborowicz. "Tooth and Bone Parameters in the Assessment of the Chronological Age of Children and Adolescents Using Neural Modelling Methods." Sensors 21, no. 18 (2021): 6008. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/s21186008.

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The analog methods used in the clinical assessment of the patient’s chronological age are subjective and characterized by low accuracy. When using those methods, there is a noticeable discrepancy between the chronological age and the age estimated based on relevant scientific studies. Innovations in the field of information technology are increasingly used in medicine, with particular emphasis on artificial intelligence methods. The paper presents research aimed at developing a new, effective methodology for the assessment of the chronological age using modern IT methods. In this paper, a study was conducted to determine the features of pantomographic images that support the determination of metric age, and neural models were produced to support the process of identifying the age of children and adolescents. The whole conducted work was a new methodology of metric age assessment. The result of the conducted study is a set of 21 original indicators necessary for the assessment of the chronological age with the use of computer image analysis and neural modelling, as well as three non-linear models of radial basis function networks (RBF), whose accuracy ranges from 96 to 99%. The result of the research are three neural models that determine the chronological age.

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Boyadzhiev, Yavor, Kamen Boyadzhiev, Lennart Brandtstätter, and Raiko Krauß. "Chronological Modelling of the Chalcolithic Settlement Layers at Tell Yunatsite, Southern Bulgaria." Documenta Praehistorica 48 (June 1, 2021): 2–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.4312/dp.48.5.

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This article publishes a new series of radiocarbon dates from Tell Yunatsite, Southern Bulgaria. Context-based excavations undertaken over a large surface area, as well as a small test trench, provided a long stratigraphic sequence (11 ‘building levels’) covering a large part of the Chalcolithic period in Thrace (5th millennium BCE). Bayesian statistics and Gaussian Monte Carlo Wiggle Matching were employed to achieve a fine chronology for the multilayered tell. Implications and problems on the application of the calibration curve for the Late and Final Chalcolithic in Bulgaria are also discussed.

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Divine, D. V., F. Godtliebsen, and H. Rue. "A modelling approach to assessing the timescale uncertainties in proxy series with chronological errors." Climate of the Past Discussions 8, no. 1 (2012): 31–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cpd-8-31-2012.

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Abstract. The paper proposes an approach to assessment of timescale errors in proxy-based series with chronological uncertainties. The method relies on approximation of the physical process(es) forming a proxy archive by a random Gamma process. Parameters of the process are partly data-driven and partly determined from prior assumptions. For a particular case of a linear accumulation model and absolutely dated tie points an analytical solution is found suggesting the Beta-distributed probability density on age estimates along the length of a proxy archive. In a general situation of uncertainties in the ages of the tie points the proposed method employs MCMC simulations of age-depth profiles yielding empirical confidence intervals on the constructed piecewise linear best guess timescale. It is suggested that the approach can be further extended to a more general case of a time-varying expected accumulation between the tie points. The approach is illustrated by using two ice and two lake/marine sediment cores representing the typical examples of paleoproxy archives with age models based on tie points of mixed origin.

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Long, Tengwen, Christian Leipe, Guiyun Jin, et al. "The early history of wheat in China from 14C dating and Bayesian chronological modelling." Nature Plants 4, no. 5 (2018): 272–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41477-018-0141-x.

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Trampota, František, and Petr Květina. "How do they fit together? A case study of Neolithic pottery typology and radiocarbon chronology." Archeologické rozhledy 72, no. 2 (2020): 163–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.35686/ar.2020.6.

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The object of the paper is to update the current concept of the chronology of the Neolithic (c. 5400–3300 BC) of the Czech Republic and northern Lower Austria by comparing the typo-chronological development of pottery and modelling the corresponding radiocarbon dates. Up until now, pottery and its style have often been perceived in Central Europe as “basic indicators” of archaeological cultures or pottery traditions, which are then further divided into chronological stages and phases. And yet, an analysis of the relationships of all three levels of these entities in the context of four types of models of radiocarbon dates indicates that changes in the original material culture do not necessarily occur on a time axis. While it is true that archaeological cultures have proven to be the robust materialisation of primarily chronological trends valid in larger geographic areas, at the level of general and more detailed pottery groups, development can be manifested in other ways (regionally, socially or in a way that is difficult to interpret). Central Europe – Neolithic – pottery typo-chronology – archaeological culture – radiocarbon dating

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Seco, A., M. V. Ruano, A. Ruiz-Martinez, et al. "Plant-wide modelling in wastewater treatment: showcasing experiences using the Biological Nutrient Removal Model." Water Science and Technology 81, no. 8 (2020): 1700–1714. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wst.2020.056.

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Abstract Plant-wide modelling can be considered an appropriate approach to represent the current complexity in water resource recovery facilities, reproducing all known phenomena in the different process units. Nonetheless, novel processes and new treatment schemes are still being developed and need to be fully incorporated in these models. This work presents a short chronological overview of some of the most relevant plant-wide models for wastewater treatment, as well as the authors' experience in plant-wide modelling using the general model BNRM (Biological Nutrient Removal Model), illustrating the key role of general models (also known as supermodels) in the field of wastewater treatment, both for engineering and research.

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Higham, Charles, and Thomas Higham. "A new chronological framework for prehistoric Southeast Asia, based on a Bayesian model from Ban Non Wat." Antiquity 83, no. 319 (2009): 125–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0003598x00098136.

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AbstractThe authors offer a new chronological framework for prehistoric Southeast Asia, based mainly on the Bayesian modelling of 75 radiocarbon dates from well-stratified excavations at Ban Non Wat. The results are revolutionary. Neolithic practice now begins in the second millennium and hierarchical state-forming activity is dated to a ‘starburst’ around 1000 BC. The authors reflect on the social implications of the new model – and on the criteria for an ever stronger chronology.

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Albiach, Rosa, Héctor A. Orengo, Josep Blasco, and Ana Ejarque. "La Carència (Valencia, España) y su territorio Resultados de la aplicación de metodologías digitales." Virtual Archaeology Review 3, no. 5 (2012): 73. http://dx.doi.org/10.4995/var.2012.4527.

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<p>'La Carència. Chronological and urban change. Evaluation in its territorial context' is an archaeological project whose application of digital methodologies to the study of la Carència Ibero-Roman oppidum and its territory has been prominent during the last ten years. This application has been twofold: archaeological research has employed GIS analyses, photogrammetrical modelling of past landscapes and multispectral imagery analysis. Scientific dissemination has been enhanced by the use of aerial photogrammetry but 3D virtual modelling was also employed to develop a hypothetical reconstruction of the city walled area. In general the application of digital methodologies benefited archaeological analysis and, at the same time, helped developing the heritage value of both site and territory.</p>

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Murakami, Akira, Paul Thompson, Susan Hunston, and Dominik Vajn. "‘What is this corpus about?’: using topic modelling to explore a specialised corpus." Corpora 12, no. 2 (2017): 243–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.3366/cor.2017.0118.

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This paper introduces topic modelling, a machine learning technique that automatically identifies ‘topics’ in a given corpus. The paper illustrates its use in the exploration of a corpus of academic English. It first offers the intuitive explanation of the underlying mechanism of topic modelling and describes the procedure for building a model, including the decisions involved in the model-building process. The paper then explores the model. A topic in topic models is characterised by a set of co-occurring words, and we will demonstrate that such topics bring us rich insights into the nature of a corpus. As exemplary tasks, this paper identifies the prominent topics in different parts of papers, investigates the chronological change of a journal, and reveals different types of papers in the journal. The paper further compares topic modelling to two more traditional techniques in corpus linguistics, semantic annotation and keywords analysis, and highlights the strengths of topic modelling. We believe that topic modelling is particularly useful in the initial exploration of a corpus.

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Binder, Didier, Philippe Lanos, Lucia Angeli, et al. "Modelling the earliest north-western dispersal of Mediterranean Impressed Wares: new dates and Bayesian chronological model." Documenta Praehistorica 44 (January 3, 2018): 54. http://dx.doi.org/10.4312/dp.4.

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The authors attempt to specify the diffusion pattern of the Impressed-Ware Neolithic (Impresso-cardial complex, ICC), from south-eastern Italy onto the French Mediterranean coasts. Using ChronoModel® software, a Bayesian model was built with sets of dates obtained on well-contextualised, short-lived samples. The results highlight a clear tightening of the chronology in the so-called nuclear area (Apulia, Basilicata, Calabria) and a pioneer dispersal at record speed in the Tyrrhenian Basin. Moreover, they question the origins and initial developments of the Impressed-Wares techno-complex.

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Valente-dos-Santos, J., M. Coelho-e-Silva, R. Martins, et al. "Modelling Developmental Changes in Repeated-Sprint Ability by Chronological and Skeletal Ages in Young Soccer Players." International Journal of Sports Medicine 33, no. 10 (2012): 773–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1055/s-0032-1308996.

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Long, Tengwen, Christian Leipe, Guiyun Jin, et al. "Publisher Correction: The early history of wheat in China from 14C dating and Bayesian chronological modelling." Nature Plants 4, no. 7 (2018): 506. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41477-018-0167-0.

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Denaire, Anthony, Philippe Lefranc, Joachim Wahl, et al. "The Cultural Project: Formal Chronological Modelling of the Early and Middle Neolithic Sequence in Lower Alsace." Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory 24, no. 4 (2017): 1072–149. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10816-016-9307-x.

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Bingenheimer, Marcus, Jen-Jou Hung, Simon Wiles, and Zhang Boyong. "Modelling East Asian Calendars in an Open Source Authority Database." International Journal of Humanities and Arts Computing 10, no. 2 (2016): 127–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.3366/ijhac.2016.0164.

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This paper discusses issues concerning the creation of conversion tables for East Asian (Chinese, Japanese, Korean) and European calendars and describes the development of an open source calendar database as part of the history of converting East Asian calendars. East Asian calendars encode both astronomical and political cycles. As a result, date conversion must in practice rely on complex look-up tables and cannot be done merely algorithmically. We provide a detailed overview of the history of such conversion tables and find that the modelling of these tables into the digital follows a trend of increasingly detailed computation of chronological time. The Buddhist Studies Time Authority Database was designed to allow computational conversion of the Chinese, the Japanese and the Korean Calendar, between each other, as well as with the Gregorian, proleptic Gregorian and Julian calendar. It relies on the Julian Day Number (JDN) as common referent for all conversions.

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Brunner, Mirco, Jonas von Felten, Martin Hinz, and Albert Hafner. "Central European Early Bronze Age chronology revisited: A Bayesian examination of large-scale radiocarbon dating." PLOS ONE 15, no. 12 (2020): e0243719. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0243719.

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In archaeological research, changes in material culture and the evolution of styles are taken as major indicators for socio-cultural transformation. They form the basis for typo-chronological classification and the establishment of phases and periods. Central European Bronze Age material culture from burials reveals changes during the Bronze Age and represents a perfect case study for analyzing phenomena of cultural change and the adoption of innovation in the societies of prehistoric Europe. Our study focuses on the large-scale change in material culture which took place in the second millennium BC and the emergence at the same period of new burial rites: the shift from inhumation burials in flat graves to complex mounds and simple cremation burials. Paul Reinecke was the first to divide the European Bronze Age (EBA) into two phases, Bz A1 and A2. The shift from the first to the second phase has so far been ascribed to technical advances. Our study adopted an innovative approach to quantifying this phenomenon. Through regressive reciprocal averaging and Bayesian analysis of radiocarbon-dated grave contexts located in Switzerland and southern Germany, we modelled chronological changes in the material culture and changes in burial rites in these regions in a probabilistic way. We used kernel density models to summarize radiocarbon dates, with the aim of visualizing cultural changes in the third and second millennium BC. In 2015, Stockhammer et al. cast doubt on the chronological sequence of the Reinecke phases of the EBA on the basis of newly collected radiocarbon dates from southern Germany. Our intervention is a direct response to the results of that study. We fully agree with Stockhammer’s et al. dating of the start of EBA, but propose a markedly different dating of the EBA/MBA transition. Our modelling of radiocarbon data demonstrates a statistically significant typological sequence of phases Bz A1, Bz A2 and Bz B and disproves their postulated chronological overlap. The linking of the archaeological relative-chronological system with absolute dates is of major importance to understanding the temporal dimension of the EBA phases.

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Schill, Rudolf, Stefan Solbrig, Tilo Wettig, and Rainer Spang. "Modelling cancer progression using Mutual Hazard Networks." Bioinformatics 36, no. 1 (2019): 241–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/bioinformatics/btz513.

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Abstract Motivation Cancer progresses by accumulating genomic events, such as mutations and copy number alterations, whose chronological order is key to understanding the disease but difficult to observe. Instead, cancer progression models use co-occurrence patterns in cross-sectional data to infer epistatic interactions between events and thereby uncover their most likely order of occurrence. State-of-the-art progression models, however, are limited by mathematical tractability and only allow events to interact in directed acyclic graphs, to promote but not inhibit subsequent events, or to be mutually exclusive in distinct groups that cannot overlap. Results Here we propose Mutual Hazard Networks (MHN), a new Machine Learning algorithm to infer cyclic progression models from cross-sectional data. MHN model events by their spontaneous rate of fixation and by multiplicative effects they exert on the rates of successive events. MHN compared favourably to acyclic models in cross-validated model fit on four datasets tested. In application to the glioblastoma dataset from The Cancer Genome Atlas, MHN proposed a novel interaction in line with consecutive biopsies: IDH1 mutations are early events that promote subsequent fixation of TP53 mutations. Availability and implementation Implementation and data are available at https://github.com/RudiSchill/MHN. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

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Wiśniewski, Andrzej, Marta Połtowicz-Bobak, Dariusz Bobak, Zdzisław Jary, and Piotr Moska. "The Epigravettian and the Magdalenian in Poland: New chronological data and an old problem." Geochronometria 44, no. 1 (2017): 16–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/geochr-2015-0052.

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Abstract The aim of the paper is to present a new chronological model of recolonisation of the area located north of the Sudetes and the Carpathians after Late Glacial Maximum (LGM). Until recently, it was believed that reoccupation of these areas occurred only due to the Magdalenian people. New chronometric data (radiocarbon and optoluminescence ones) coming from the Magdalenian and Epigravettian sites together with the application of Bayesian modelling of new records allowed us to present another model. In the light of the new research, it seems that the groups classified as the Epigravettian and Magdalenian could have coexisted at the same time in the same areas. The new model states that it is possible to assume coexistence of these groups during the period of 2300 years between 16500 and 14200 years BP.

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Guérin, Guillaume, Christelle Lahaye, Maryam Heydari, et al. "Towards an improvement of optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) age uncertainties: modelling OSL ages with systematic errors, stratigraphic constraints and radiocarbon ages using the R package BayLum." Geochronology 3, no. 1 (2021): 229–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gchron-3-229-2021.

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Abstract. Statistical analysis has become increasingly important in optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating since it has become possible to measure signals at the single-grain scale. The accuracy of large chronological datasets can benefit from the inclusion, in chronological modelling, of stratigraphic constraints and shared systematic errors. Recently, a number of Bayesian models have been developed for OSL age calculation; the R package “BayLum” presented herein allows different models of this type to be implemented, particularly for samples in stratigraphic order which share systematic errors. We first show how to introduce stratigraphic constraints in BayLum; then, we focus on the construction, based on measurement uncertainties, of dose covariance matrices to account for systematic errors specific to OSL dating. The nature (systematic versus random) of errors affecting OSL ages is discussed, based – as an example – on the dose rate determination procedure at the IRAMAT-CRP2A laboratory (Bordeaux). The effects of the stratigraphic constraints and dose covariance matrices are illustrated on example datasets. In particular, the benefit of combining the modelling of systematic errors with independent ages, unaffected by these errors, is demonstrated. Finally, we discuss other common ways of estimating dose rates and how they may be taken into account in the covariance matrix by other potential users and laboratories. Test datasets are provided as a Supplement to the reader, together with an R markdown tutorial allowing the reproduction of all calculations and figures presented in this study.

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Diappi, Lidia. "Models in Understanding and Planning the City." SCIENZE REGIONALI, no. 3 (October 2009): 151–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.3280/scre2009-003008.

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- (Paper first received, April 2009; in final form, July 2009) Abstract The aim of this paper is to present a both chronological and conceptual overview of thirty years of Italian research in the branch of urban modelling within the international context. It frames the Italian contributions within international modelling developments, showing the close interrelations which have been established throughout the period considered. During this brief but creative period we have witnessed substantial shifts in approaches: from a macro perspective to a micro-scale description of urban phenomena; from a static to a dynamic setting; from the role of operational tools in evaluating urban policies to theoretical investigation of urban complexity. The paper is organized around six families of models, which are characterized either by the theories underpinning them or by the formalism used.Keywords: models, system theory, complexityJEL Classification codes: C53, C63, O21

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Ranjan, Rakesh, Subrata Kumar Ghosh, and Manoj Kumar. "Modelling of wear debris in planetary gear drive." Industrial Lubrication and Tribology 71, no. 2 (2019): 199–204. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ilt-03-2018-0121.

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Purpose The probability distribution of major length and aspect ratio (major length/minor length) of wear debris collected from gear oil used in planetary gear drive were analysed and modelled. The paper aims to find an appropriate probability distribution model to forecast the kind of wear particles at different running hour of the machine. Design/methodology/approach Used gear oil of the planetary gear box of a slab caster was drained out and charged with a fresh oil of grade (EP-460). Six chronological oil samples were collected at different time interval between 480 and 1,992 h of machine running. The oil samples were filtered to separate wear particles, and microscopic study of wear debris was carried out at 100X magnification. Statistical modelling of wear debris distribution was done using Weibull and exponential probability distribution model. A comparison was studied among actual, Weibull and exponential probability distribution of major length and aspect ratio of wear particles. Findings Distribution of major length of wear particle was found to be closer to the exponential probability density function, whereas Weibull probability density function fitted better to distribution of aspect ratio of wear particle. Originality/value The potential of the developed model can be used to analyse the distribution of major length and aspect ratio of wear debris present in planetary gear box of slab caster machine.

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Pavolová, Henrieta, Zuzana Šimková, and Miloš Petráš. "Use of modern computer technologies and 3D modelling in the study of historical montanistics." E3S Web of Conferences 134 (2019): 03016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/201913403016.

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This paper points out the integration of using of modern computer technologies and 3D modeling of montaneous objects, which form an integral part of montaneous tourism. It describes in detail the chronological development of the term “ montaneous “, which currently refers to all areas with interaction ties to primary, secondary and tertiary spheres of mining. At the same time, it points to an attractive form of making available objects, which no longer exists, resp. inaccessible historical montaneous objects using 3D visualization for the general public, which requires not only wider teams of high-quality programmers or graphic designers, but also experts who create historically relevant descriptive texts, diagrams or models, according which is possible their computer processing. Finally, it presents concrete 3D visualizations of historical montaneous objects in the territory of Eastern Slovakia.

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Banffy, Eszter, Alex Bayliss, Anthony Denaire, et al. "Seeking the Holy Grail." Documenta Praehistorica 45 (January 3, 2019): 120–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.4312/dp.45-10.

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The strengths of formal Bayesian chronological modelling are restated, combining as it does knowledge of the archaeology with the radiocarbon dating of carefully chosen samples of known taphonomy in association with diagnostic material culture. The risks of dating bone samples are reviewed, along with a brief history of the development of approaches to the radiocarbon dating of bone. In reply to Strien (2017), selected topics concerned with the emergence and aftermath of the LBK are discussed, as well as the early Vinča, Ražište and Hinkelstein sequences. The need for rigour in an approach which combines archaeology and radiocarbon dating is underlined.

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Banffy, Eszter, Alex Bayliss, Anthony Denaire, et al. "Seeking the Holy Grail." Documenta Praehistorica 45 (December 29, 2018): 120–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.4312/dp.45.10.

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Flantua, S. G. A., M. Blaauw, and H. Hooghiemstra. "Geochronological database and classification system for age uncertainties in Neotropical pollen records." Climate of the Past 12, no. 2 (2016): 387–414. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-387-2016.

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Abstract. The newly updated inventory of palaeoecological research in Latin America offers an important overview of sites available for multi-proxy and multi-site purposes. From the collected literature supporting this inventory, we collected all available age model metadata to create a chronological database of 5116 control points (e.g. 14C, tephra, fission track, OSL, 210Pb) from 1097 pollen records. Based on this literature review, we present a summary of chronological dating and reporting in the Neotropics. Difficulties and recommendations for chronology reporting are discussed. Furthermore, for 234 pollen records in northwest South America, a classification system for age uncertainties is implemented based on chronologies generated with updated calibration curves. With these outcomes age models are produced for those sites without an existing chronology, alternative age models are provided for researchers interested in comparing the effects of different calibration curves and age–depth modelling software, and the importance of uncertainty assessments of chronologies is highlighted. Sample resolution and temporal uncertainty of ages are discussed for different time windows, focusing on events relevant for research on centennial- to millennial-scale climate variability. All age models and developed R scripts are publicly available through figshare, including a manual to use the scripts.

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Molochko, Mykola Anatoliyovych, Anatoliy Mykolayovych Molochko, and Viktoriia Valeriivna Molochko. "THE ESSENCE OF THE MAP SEMÌOTICS PROVISIONS OF THE CARTOGRAPHIC MODELLING IN EDUCATION." GEOGRAPHY AND TOURISM, no. 47 (2019): 96–117. http://dx.doi.org/10.17721/2308-135x.2019.47.96-117.

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Purpose. Highlight the essence of the cartosemiotic positions of cartographic modeling in education. Methods. Based on fundamental scientific positions and general and concrete scientific methods, systems approach, analysis and synthesis, abstract, concrete and generalized, historical and chronological, comparative geographical, cartographic modeling and carto-semiological analysis. Results. Cartosemiotics was formed at the junction of cartography and semiotics, linguistic science, which explores the properties of signs and sign systems as language formations. The importance of considering its provisions in education is associated with the existing bilateral relations between people who create, transmit and perceive cartographic signs and these signs. Scientific novelty. Without organizing the development of the rules of this language and using its means of displaying reality, it is impossible for extended reproduction in society of acquired cartographic knowledge and the use of their promising possibilities, the requirements for which are constantly increasing. The practical significance. Due to the wide use of the object language of maps in various spheres of public activity, in particular in education.

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Greaney, Susan, Zoë Hazell, Alistair Barclay, et al. "Tempo of a Mega-henge: A New Chronology for Mount Pleasant, Dorchester, Dorset." Proceedings of the Prehistoric Society 86 (August 20, 2020): 199–236. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/ppr.2020.6.

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Radiocarbon dating and Bayesian chronological modelling have provided precise new dating for the henge monument of Mount Pleasant in Dorset, excavated in 1970–1. A total of 59 radiocarbon dates are now available for the site and modelling of these has provided a revised sequence for the henge enclosure and its various constituent parts: the timber palisaded enclosure, the Conquer Barrow, and the ditch surrounding Site IV, a concentric timber and stone monument. This suggests that the henge was probably built in the 26th century cal bc, shortly followed by the timber palisade and Site IV ditch. These major construction events took place in the late Neolithic over a relatively short timespan, probably lasting 35–125 years. The principal results are discussed for each element of the site, including comparison with similar monument types elsewhere in Britain and Ireland, and wider implications for late Neolithic connections and later activity at the site associated with Beaker pottery are explored.

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Mourad, M., J. L. Bertrand-Krajewski, and G. Chebbo. "Design of a retention tank: comparison of stormwater quality models with various levels of complexity." Water Science and Technology 54, no. 6-7 (2006): 231–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wst.2006.582.

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Stormwater quality simulation models are useful tools for the design and management of sewer systems. Modelling results are highly sensitive to experimental data used for calibration. This sensitivity is examined for three modelling approaches of various complexities (site mean concentration approach, event mean concentration approach and build-up, washoff and transport modelling approach) applied to a typical case study (design of a dry detention tank), accounting for the variability of calibration data and their effect on simulation results. Calibrated models with different calibration data sets were used to simulate 3 years of rainfall with different retention tank specific volumes. Annual pollutant load interception efficiencies were determined. Simulations results revealed i) that there is no advantage in using the EMC model compared to the SMC model and ii) that the BWT model resulted in higher design ratios than those given by the SMC/hydraulic approach. For both EMC and BWT models, using an increasing number n of events for calibration leads to narrower confidence intervals for the design ratios. It is crucial for design ratios to account for successive storm events in chronological order and to account for the maximum allowable flow to be transferred to the downstream WWTP.

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Card, Nick, Ingrid Mainland, Scott Timpany, et al. "To Cut a Long Story Short: Formal Chronological Modelling for the Late Neolithic Site of Ness of Brodgar, Orkney." European Journal of Archaeology 21, no. 2 (2017): 217–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/eaa.2016.29.

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In the context of unanswered questions about the nature and development of the Late Neolithic in Orkney, we present a summary of research up to 2015 on the major site at the Ness of Brodgar, Mainland Orkney, concentrating on the impressive buildings. Finding sufficient samples for radiocarbon dating was a considerable challenge. There are indications, from both features and finds, of activity pre-dating the main set of buildings exposed so far by excavation. Forty-six dates on thirty-nine samples are presented and are interpreted in a formal chronological framework. Two models are presented, reflecting different possible readings of the sequence. Both indicate that piered architecture was in use by the thirtieth century calbcand that the massive Structure 10, not the first building in the sequence, was also in existence by the thirtieth century calbc. Activity associated with piered architecture came to an end (in Model 2) around 2800 calbc. Midden and rubble infill followed. After an appreciable interval, the hearth at the centre of Structure 10 was last used around 2500 calbc, perhaps the only activity in an otherwise abandoned site. The remains of some 400 or more cattle were deposited over the ruins of Structure 10: in Model 2, in the mid-twenty-fifth century calbc, but in Model 1 in the late twenty-fourth or twenty-third century calbc. The chronologies invite comparison with the near-neighbour of Barnhouse, in use from the later thirty-second to the earlier twenty-ninth century calbc, and the Stones of Stenness, probably erected by the thirtieth century calbc. The Ness, including Structure 10, appears to have outlasted Barnhouse, but probably did not endure as long in its primary form as previously envisaged. The decay and decommissioning of the Ness may have coincided with the further development of the sacred landscape around it; but precise chronologies for other sites in the surrounding landscape are urgently required. The spectacular feasting remains of several hundred cattle deposited above Structure 10 may belong to a radically changing world, coinciding (in Model 2) with the appearance of Beakers nationally, but it was arguably the, by now, mythic status of that building which drew people back to it.

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Tasić, Nenad, Miroslav Marić, Kristina Penezić, et al. "The end of the affair: formal chronological modelling for the top of the Neolithic tell of Vinča-Belo Brdo." Antiquity 89, no. 347 (2015): 1064–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.15184/aqy.2015.101.

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Lindholm, Karl-Johan, and John Ljungkvist. "The Bear in the Grave: Exploitation of Top Predator and Herbivore Resources in First Millennium Sweden—First Trends from a Long-Term Research Project." European Journal of Archaeology 19, no. 1 (2016): 3–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1179/1461957115y.0000000010.

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This paper focusses on animal remains associated with archaeological contexts dated to the middle and later phases of the Scandinavian Iron Age, which corresponds to the first millennium AD. The main question to be addressed is whether this record can be used for identifying human impact on certain animal populations for modelling faunal exploitation and interregional trade. In the first part of the paper, we undertake a detailed inventory of animal finds recorded in published excavation reports, research catalogues, and in existing databases maintained primarily by the Historical Museum in Stockholm. We compare the chronological pattern identified in the burial assemblages with a chronological sequence retrieved from pitfall hunting systems located in the Scandinavian inland region. The chronologies of the animal finds from burials and the pitfall systems are then compared with dated pollen-analytical sequences retrieved in the inland region and additional archaeological assemblages, such as graves and hoards of Roman coins. In our discussion, we outline an interregional model of faunal exploitation between AD 300 and 1200, including the possible location of hunting grounds and end-distribution areas for animal products. The paper provides deeper insights into the burial record of the middle Iron Age, arguing for the need for broader interregional approaches, and focussed archaeological research in the inland regions of Scandinavia.

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Strickland, Joel, Bogdan Nenchev, and Hongbiao Dong. "On Directional Dendritic Growth and Primary Spacing—A Review." Crystals 10, no. 7 (2020): 627. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cryst10070627.

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The primary spacing is intrinsically linked with the mechanical behavior of directionally solidified materials. Because of this relationship, a significant amount of solidification work is reported in the literature, which relates the primary spacing to the process variables. This review provides a comprehensive chronological narrative on the development of the directional dendritic growth problem over the past 85 years. A key focus within this review is detailing the relationship between key solidification parameters, the operating point of the dendrite tip, and the primary spacing. This review critiques the current state of directional dendritic growth and primary spacing modelling, briefly discusses dendritic growth computational and experimental research, and suggests areas for future investigation.

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Podolskiy, E. A., G. Chambon, M. Naaim, and J. Gaume. "A review of finite-element modelling in snow mechanics." Journal of Glaciology 59, no. 218 (2013): 1189–201. http://dx.doi.org/10.3189/2013jog13j121.

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The finite-element method (FEM) is one of the main numerical analysis methods in continuum mechanics and mechanics of solids (Huebner and others, 2001). Through mesh discretization of a given continuous domain into a finite number of sub-domains, or elements, the method finds approximate solutions to sets of simultaneous partial differential equations, which express the behavior of the elements and the entire system. For decades this methodology has played an accelerated role in mechanical engineering, structural analysis and, in particular, snow mechanics. To the best of our knowledge, the application of finite-element analysis in snow mechanics has never been summarized. Therefore, in this correspondence we provide a table with a detailed review of the main FEM studies on snow mechanics performed from 1971 to 2012 (40 papers), for facilitating comparison between different mechanical approaches, outlining numerical recipes and for future reference. We believe that this kind of compact review in a tabulated form will produce a snapshot of the state of the art, and thus become an appropriate, timely and beneficial reference for any relevant follow-up research, including, for example, not only snow avalanche questions, but also modeling of snow microstructure and tire–snow interaction. To that end, this correspondence is organized according to the following structure. Table 1 includes all essential information about previously published FEM studies originally developed to investigate stresses in snow with all corresponding mechanical and numerical parameters. Columns in Table 1 provide references to particular studies, placed in chronological order. Rows correspond to the main model parameters and other details of each considered case.

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Nevill, Alan M., Yassine Negra, Tony D. Myers, Michael J. Duncan, Helmi Chaabene, and Urs Granacher. "Are Early or Late Maturers Likely to Be Fitter in the General Population?" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, no. 2 (2021): 497. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18020497.

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The present study aims to identify the optimal body-size/shape and maturity characteristics associated with superior fitness test performances having controlled for body-size, sex, and chronological-age differences. The sample consisted of 597 Tunisian children (396 boys and 201 girls) aged 8 to 15 years. Three sprint speeds recorded at 10, 20 and 30 m; two vertical and two horizontal jump tests; a change-of-direction and a handgrip-strength tests, were assessed during physical-education classes. Allometric modelling was used to identify the benefit of being an early or late maturer. Findings showed that being tall and light is the ideal shape to be successful at most physical fitness tests, but the height-to-weight “shape” ratio seems to be test-dependent. Having controlled for body-size/shape, sex, and chronological age, the model identified maturity-offset as an additional predictor. Boys who go earlier/younger through peak-height-velocity (PHV) outperform those who go at a later/older age. However, most of the girls’ physical-fitness tests peaked at the age at PHV and decline thereafter. Girls whose age at PHV was near the middle of the age range would appear to have an advantage compared to early or late maturers. These findings have important implications for talent scouts and coaches wishing to recruit children into their sports/athletic clubs.

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Płonka, Tomasz, Dariusz Bobak, and Michał Szuta. "The Dawn of the Mesolithic on the Plains of Poland." Journal of World Prehistory 33, no. 3 (2020): 325–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10963-020-09146-0.

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AbstractIn this article we take a fresh look at the population dynamics of the Polish Plain in the transition from the Pleistocene to the Holocene, using Bayesian analysis and modelling of radiocarbon dates, and contrast the results with data from the North German Plain. We argue against simple adaptationalist models and instead see the cultural landscape as a complex patchwork of old forms and the emerging new traits of the early Mesolithic. We argue that the Mesolithic directly follows the Final Palaeolithic on the Polish Plain, without the chronological hiatus of 150–300 years that is often assumed for that region; while, by contrast, the two cultural patterns—Final Palaeolithic and microlith-based Mesolithic—overlapped significantly in time on the adjacent North German Plain.

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Leonardi, Thiago J., Roberto R. Paes, Larissa Breder, Carl Foster, Carlos E. Gonçalves, and Humberto M. Carvalho. "Biological maturation, training experience, body size and functional capacity of adolescent female basketball players: A Bayesian analysis." International Journal of Sports Science & Coaching 13, no. 5 (2018): 713–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1747954118772489.

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In the present study we examined the age- and maturity-associated variation on body size and functional capacities in 47 adolescent female basketball players. Also, we examined the relative contribution of growth and maturity status to functional capacity between player variation. Data included chronological age, age at menarche, years of training experience; body dimensions; countermovement jump, Line drill test and Yo-Yo intermittent recovery test – level 1. Bayesian multilevel modelling was used to estimate the independent effects of age, maturity status, years of training experience and body size on functional capacity indicators. Players were, on average, advanced in maturity status, with a mean age at menarche of 11.20 years (1.32 years). Age-associated variation in age at menarche, body size and functional performance was present. No substantial maturity-associated variation was observed for stature and functional capacities, but late maturing players appeared to be less experienced in the sport. Variance partition coefficients ranged between 38% and 45% for the three indicators of functional capacities. Body mass and adiposity were the predictors identified for all indicators of performance. Maturity status and years of experience were predictors of performance in the countermovement jump while age and years of experience were predictors of performance for the Line drill. Stature was only identified as a predictor of the Yo-Yo intermittent recovery – level 1. Coaches should interpret functional performance in adolescent female basketball players considering their different ages (chronological, biological and accumulated training) and their influence on body dimensions.

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Jacobs, Heinz. "Chronological review of South African guidelines for residential average annual water demand with property size as independent variable." Suid-Afrikaanse Tydskrif vir Natuurwetenskap en Tegnologie 27, no. 4 (2008): 240–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.4102/satnt.v27i4.94.

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Guidelines for residential average annual water demand (AADD) based on property size were introduced to the South African Civil Engineering fraternity in about 1960, with the most recent publication of such guidelines in 2008. The AADD forms the basis of calculations performed during the design and analysis of water systems. Over the years technology has improved, scientific progress was made and demand has changed, resulting in improved and updated guidelines for AADD. Changes in the guidelines over the years could be considered to be a result of improvement– larger and more accurate data sets are nowadays analysed statistically by improved computer technology. Also, the changes are considered to be the result of scientific advances in the fields of metering, modelling and analysis of water demand. Finally, actual changes in demand occur with time. This research provides the first documented review of the chronological development of AADD guidelines in South Africa. It is noted that only two guidelines were used for relatively long periods of time. In both cases the guidelines would not compare favourably to others from a pure research perspective, but their successful application is the result of a co-ordinated educational and marketing effort. The value of a sustained guideline structure (AADD versus stand size in this case) is also underlined.

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Schmidt, Christoph, Christian Zeeden, Lydia Krauß, Frank Lehmkuhl, and Ludwig Zöller. "A chronological and palaeoenvironmental re‐evaluation of two loess‐palaeosol records in the northern Harz foreland, Germany, based on innovative modelling tools." Boreas 50, no. 3 (2021): 746–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/bor.12510.

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Kyrylchuk, Andriy. "Features of ontogenesis and geography of rendzic leptosols in the western Ukrainian region." Visnyk of the Lviv University. Series Geography, no. 51 (December 27, 2017): 145–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.30970/vgg.2017.51.8854.

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The article deals with theoretical and methodological principals of process-genetic approach concerning the study of ontogenesis and geography of soils at the regional level. Methods of geographical and genetic investigation of ontogenesis and geography of Rendzic Leptosols have been improved through the introduction of modelling techniques, soil chronological rows, and balance of substances and energy capacity evaluation of soil formation. Peculiarities of Rendzic Leptosols ontogenesis in natural and natural-anthropogenic landscapes with different biolithogenic conditions of soil formation have been established. Based on current investigations, a schematic map of the geography of rendzinas in Western Region of Ukraine has been made up. Particular approaches have been justified according to distinguishing such stages of ontogenesis of Rendzic Leptosols as an initial (primary) → perfect (development and improvement) → permanent (maturity and stability) → and evolution (self-development and quality changes). Chronological periodization of soil geographic investigations of rendzinas in the Western region has been achieved with periodization scheme of these studies made up. The analysis of energetic and thermodynamic properties of chronological rows of soil-forming rocks and Rendzic Leptosols of the Western region of Ukraine on different stages of their ontogenesis has been carried out. Parameters and indicators of elementary soil processes at different stages of rendzinas ontogenesis have been established. Formation peculiarities of morphological, physical, physical-chemical, and chemical properties of rendzinas on different stages of their ontogenesis have been shown. Consequently, characteristic features of rendzinas agrogenic transformation and scientifically based approaches towards usage and protection optimization of the investigated soils have been determined. Systematized and generalized pedochronologic information can be used to solve process-genetic, functional-geographical and classification-diagnostic problems, and tasks of rational application and protection of Rendzic Leptosols of Western Region of Ukraine. Suggested results of the research can be applied towards bonitet soil evaluation as well as monetary estimation of the land, and the development of territory organization projects, aiming at optimizing the soil-ecological condition of agricultural land. Obtained results are recommended for improving methods of soil-geographic and soil-agricultural zoning. Key words: ontogenesis and geography of Rendzic Leptosols, elementary soil processes, stages of ontogenesis, agrogenic transformation.

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Kennedy, Scott, and Peter Rogers. "A Probabilistic Model for Simulating Long-Term Wind-Power Output." Wind Engineering 27, no. 3 (2003): 167–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1260/030952403769016654.

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This paper describes a chronological wind-plant simulation model for use in long-term energy resource planning. The model generates wind-power time series of arbitrary length that accurately reproduce short-term (hourly) to long-term (yearly) statistical behaviour. The modelling objective and methodology differ from forecasting models, which focus on minimizing prediction error. In the present analysis, periodic cycles are isolated from historical wind-speed data from a known local site and combined with a first-order autoregressive process to produce a wind-speed time series model. Corrections for negative wind-speed values and spatial smoothing for geographically disperse wind turbines are discussed. The resulting model is used to simulate the output from a hypothetical offshore wind-plant south of Long Island, New York. Modelled differences of power output between individual turbines result from wind speed variability; wake effects are not considered in this analysis.

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Serrano Lara, Libertad, and Luisa María García González. "Documentación arqueológica tridimensional de la cultura material en la terraza sureste de la necrópolis de Qubbet el-Hawa (Asuán): potencial y difusión pública de resultados." Trabajos de Egiptología. Papers on Ancient Egypt, no. 10 (2019): 387–401. http://dx.doi.org/10.25145/j.tde.2019.10.22.

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Qubbet el-Hawa (Aswan): Potential and Public Dissemination of the Results The material culture found in the necropolis of Qubbet el-Hawa stands out for its typological and chronological diversity and quality. It is possible to reconstruct different chapters of the history of the First Nome of Upper Egypt thanks to material culture studies. Furthermore, these studies allow us to detect changes in funerary rituals. Qubbet el-Hawa is an excellent archaeological site to be documented with the latest technologies, especially three-dimensional modelling. The updated work on the digital artefact collection from the Qubbet el-Hawa Project offers a three-dimensional open access library, which allows users to visit a virtual museum of the material culture recovered in the necropolis. This paper presents the methodology applied to maximize the potential of three-dimensional archaeological documentation for the public dissemination of the research results.

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Mennessier, M. O. "Analysis of pseudo-periodic chronological series with irregularly time-spaced data in view to their prediction. I. Proposed problem." Applied Stochastic Models and Data Analysis 5, no. 3 (1989): 253–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/asm.3150050305.

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Mennessier, M. O., G. Burki, and J. P. Cordoni. "Analysis of pseudo-periodic chronological series with irregularly time-spaced data in view to their prediction. II. Fourier analysis." Applied Stochastic Models and Data Analysis 5, no. 3 (1989): 255–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/asm.3150050306.

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Mennessier, M. O., and E. Diday. "Analysis of pseudo-periodic chronological series with irregularly time-spaced data in view to their prediction. III. Symbolic analysis." Applied Stochastic Models and Data Analysis 5, no. 3 (1989): 259–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/asm.3150050307.

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Vandergoes, Marcus J., Jamie D. Howarth, Gavin B. Dunbar, et al. "Integrating chronological uncertainties for annually laminated lake sediments using layer counting, independent chronologies and Bayesian age modelling (Lake Ohau, South Island, New Zealand)." Quaternary Science Reviews 188 (May 2018): 104–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.03.015.

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Hunt, Harriet V., Anna Rudzinski, Hongen Jiang, Ruiyun Wang, Mark G. Thomas, and Martin K. Jones. "Genetic evidence for a western Chinese origin of broomcorn millet (Panicum miliaceum)." Holocene 28, no. 12 (2018): 1968–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0959683618798116.

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Broomcorn millet ( Panicum miliaceum) is a key domesticated cereal that has been associated with the north China centre of agricultural origins. Early archaeobotanical evidence for this crop has generated two major debates. First, its contested presence in pre-7000 cal. BP sites in eastern Europe has admitted the possibility of a western origin. Second, its occurrence in the 7th and 8th millennia cal. BP in diverse regions of northern China is consistent with several possible origin foci, associated with different Neolithic cultures. We used microsatellite and granule-bound starch synthase I ( GBSSI) genotype data from 341 landrace samples across Eurasia, including 195 newly genotyped samples from China, to address these questions. A spatially explicit discriminative modelling approach favours an eastern Eurasian origin for the expansion of broomcorn millet. This is consistent with recent archaeobotanical and chronological re-evaluations, and stable isotopic data. The same approach, together with the distribution of GBSSI alleles, is also suggestive that the origin of broomcorn millet expansion was in western China. This second unexpected finding stimulates new questions regarding the ecology of wild millet and vegetation dynamics in China prior to the mid-Holocene domestication of millet. The chronological relationship between population expansion and domestication is unclear, but our analyses are consistent with the western Loess Plateau being at least one region of primary domestication of broomcorn millet. Patterns of genetic variation indicate that this region was the source of populations to the west in Eurasia, which broomcorn probably reached via the Inner Asia Mountain Corridor from the 3rd millennium BC. A secondary westward expansion along the steppe may have taken place from the 2nd millennium BC.

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Maggio, Ariane, and Daniel Franklin. "Femoral histomorphometric age-at-death studies: The issue of sample size and standard error." Medicine, Science and the Law 60, no. 4 (2020): 257–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0025802420945939.

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Extant histomorphometric aging methods based on the analysis of the femoral cortex generally report small samples ( N<100) and highly variable standard error of the estimate (SEE) values (±1.51‒16.98 years). The present paper reviews the published literature on femoral histomorphometry for age-at-death estimation in order to examine the relationship between sample size and SEE values, and makes recommendations for minimum reporting requirements for age-at-death studies based on statistical data. The SEE from a total of 33 studies are analysed. Sample size and confidence intervals are explored using Hennig and Cooper’s simulation modelling. Analysis of effect size through a fixed-effect model is performed on 5/33 studies to examine the relationship between sample size and effect size. The pooled sex formulae from Nor et al., Martrille et al. and Thompson and the two sex-specific formulae of Pfeiffer are examined, as they report mean and standard deviation values for both chronological and estimated ages. The results of these analyses support sampling theory, specifically wide variation in SEE when N<100, narrowing as the sample size increases, and lower effect sizes in the larger of the five studies examined. The findings provide some support for a minimum threshold of 100‒150 individuals for histomorphometric age-at-death estimation. Analysis of effect size is suggested for future investigation in meta-analyses of forensic anthropological age-estimation studies. To ensure increased precision and meaningful comparison, large samples should be used for histomorphometry, and authors should report SEE and discrete statistics (e.g. n, mean, standard deviation) for both chronological age and estimated age.

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