Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Conservative bias'

Purpose/Aim: To study the existence and level of bias in British press coverage of the 2008 US presidential election.

Material/Method: A rhetorical analysis of 20 newspaper articles dealing with the election taken from The Guardian (liberal) and The Daily Telegraph (conservative) newspapers over a fiveday period up to and including the election.

Main Results: Bias was found to be present, although the level of bias proved significantly higher in the material selected from the liberal newspaper. The conservative newspaper selected exhibited significantly lower levels of bias. This trend was true of both news and opinion articles

In this study, I examine the effects of audit guidance and estimation uncertainty on auditors’ confirmation bias and professional skepticism when evaluating fair value estimates. Fair value estimation is becoming more prevalent in financial reporting frameworks, and regulators warn that fair value estimation presents higher risk of material misstatement when greater judgment in estimation is involved. In addition recent evidence from the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) indicates that some auditors may not be exercising sufficient professional skepticism when performing audit procedures in higher risk areas of the audit. Martin et al. (2006) suggest that it may be the audit standards themselves that orient auditors toward biased evaluation of management’s estimates, suggesting that such directional audit guidance leads to confirmation bias. Further, it is possible that because of auditors’ intolerance for ambiguity, that a greater degree of estimation uncertainty exacerbates the bias. Thus, I examine whether directional audit guidance (e.g., support management’s estimate, and oppose management’s estimate) versus non-directional audit guidance (e.g., develop own estimate) affects auditors’ confirmation bias differentially under varying degrees of uncertainty (e.g., low vs. high), and the extent to which this bias increases or decreases professional skepticism. The results show that auditors exhibit the greatest confirmation bias when they are directed to oppose versus support management’s estimate or generate their own estimate, and that this bias increases the degree of professional skepticism exercised by auditors. Further, the greatest extent of confirmation bias resulted when auditors were directed to oppose management’s estimate and estimation uncertainty was high. This study sheds light on the effects of directional versus non-directional audit guidance in the presence of uncertainty and should be informative to standard setters and practitioners as they press forward in issuing new audit guidance related to the evaluation of fair value estimates.

This paper is an inquiry into the discourse styles of men and women who work together in a conservative Protestant Christian business. Many conservative Protestant Christian churches teach that the Bible forbids women from holding positions of authority over men. Yet in the communications department of this particular business, women fill the top three management positions, supervising a mixed-gender staff of 15. Research has shown that men and women subconsciously use language markers that indicate personal attitudes toward the same and the opposite genders. This research project draws on that information while it analyzes the oral and electronic discourse of the communications staff. The purpose of this study is to observe whether or not the traditional teachings of conservative Protestant Christian churches has influenced the attitudes of these men and women with regard to women in positions of authority over men in a Christian business. Two staff meetings and a lunchroom conversation were audio taped and transcribed to note oral discourse patterns. One hundred and eleven emails were examined to mark patterns of written discourse. This data was then evaluated against published research in the area of gendered discourse markers. The results indicate that two of the three women in leadership positions over men were comfortable with their positions of authority, but the third woman's discourse patterns showed signs of insecurity. Furthermore, the men in the department did not indicate signs that they seek to exercise power over women, nor did they show signs of difficulty in submitting to the authority of the women. The women staff members, however, showed definite indications of being insecure in a mixed group, and of being meekly subordinate to anyone in authority over them. These results, while helpful, are not definitive in that they do not account for the possibility of other influencing factors, such as personality types, job roles and expectations, age differences, or church teachings on meekness and submission to authority. However, the results of this research indicate that some conservative Christian men are ready for and able to embrace the concept of having women in positions of authority over them, even in a Christian environment, and a few conservative, Christian women are ready to step into those positions. Also from this research it could be concluded that, on the average, conservative women struggle more with the shift of authority than men do. More research would need to be done to address that question fully.
M.A.
Department of English
Arts and Sciences
English

Conventional reliability analysis methods assume that a simulation model is able to represent the real physics accurately. However, this assumption may not always hold as the simulation model could be biased due to simplifications and idealizations. Simulation models are approximate mathematical representations of real-world systems and thus cannot exactly imitate the real-world systems. The accuracy of a simulation model is especially critical when it is used for the reliability calculation. Therefore, a simulation model should be validated using prototype testing results for reliability analysis. However, in practical engineering situation, experimental output data for the purpose of model validation is limited due to the significant cost of a large number of physical testing. Thus, the model validation needs to be carried out to account for the uncertainty induced by insufficient experimental output data as well as the inherent variability existing in the physical system and hence in the experimental test results. Therefore, in this study, a confidence-based model validation method that captures the variability and the uncertainty, and that corrects model bias at a user-specified target confidence level, has been developed. Reliability assessment using the confidence-based model validation can provide conservative estimation of the reliability of a system with confidence when only insufficient experimental output data are available. Without confidence-based model validation, the designed product obtained using the conventional reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) optimum could either not satisfy the target reliability or be overly conservative. Therefore, simulation model validation is necessary to obtain a reliable optimum product using the RBDO process. In this study, the developed confidence-based model validation is integrated in the RBDO process to provide truly confident RBDO optimum design. The developed confidence-based model validation will provide a conservative RBDO optimum design at the target confidence level. However, it is challenging to obtain steady convergence in the RBDO process with confidence-based model validation because the feasible domain changes as the design moves (i.e., a moving-target problem). To resolve this issue, a practical optimization procedure, which terminates the RBDO process once the target reliability is satisfied, is proposed. In addition, the efficiency is achieved by carrying out deterministic design optimization (DDO) and RBDO without model validation, followed by RBDO with the confidence-based model validation. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate that the proposed RBDO approach obtains a conservative and practical optimum design that satisfies the target reliability of designed product given a limited number of experimental output data. Thus far, while the simulation model might be biased, it is assumed that we have correct distribution models for input variables and parameters. However, in real practical applications, only limited numbers of test data are available (parameter uncertainty) for modeling input distributions of material properties, manufacturing tolerances, operational loads, etc. Also, as before, only a limited number of output test data is used. Therefore, a reliability needs to be estimated by considering parameter uncertainty as well as biased simulation model. Computational methods and a process are developed to obtain confidence-based reliability assessment. The insufficient input and output test data induce uncertainties in input distribution models and output distributions, respectively. These uncertainties, which arise from lack of knowledge – the insufficient test data, are different from the inherent input distributions and corresponding output variabilities, which are natural randomness of the physical system.

This study examined perceptions among non-racists, aversive racists, and blatant racists of differentially-performing African-American employees and the effects of the evaluation manipulation on future hiring decisions of an African-American applicant. Using a procedure for categorizing participants into one of these three racism groups, which utilized both implicit and explicit measures of racism, an internet-based sample (n = 221) rated the job performance of a European- or African-American incumbent law associate in a positive or mediocre performance condition and then provided performance ratings of the incumbent associate. Participants also evaluated a moderately-qualified African-American's hireability. Racism group, incumbent performance, and incumbent race were hypothesized to interact to differentially affect mediocre-performing African-American incumbent performance ratings and African-American applicant hireability and qualification ratings. The hypothesized three-way interactions were not significant. However, a significant two-way interaction of incumbent race X incumbent performance was found for incumbent performance ratings, F(1, 191) = 6.06, p = .015, ηp2 = .031, and African-American applicant hireability, F(1, 191) = 7.31, p = .007, ηp2 = .037. Hierarchical regression analyses probing the interactions showed that the positive-performing African-American incumbent's performance was rated significantly higher than the positive-performing European-American's performance, simple slope = .13, SE = .10, t = 2.10, p = .037. Participants also rated an African-American job applicant's hireability lower after viewing a mediocre-performing African-American incumbent, as compared to a mediocre-performing European-American incumbent, simple slope = -.18, SE = .14, t = -2.36, p = .019. These findings are consistent with the theoretical tenets of aversive racism. This study also explored the political ideologies of non-racists, aversive racists, and blatant racists. Using chi-square analysis, the political ideologies (conservative or liberal) of the three racist groups were significantly different, χ2 (2) = 43.03, p < .001. The majority of non-racists and aversive racists identified as liberal, whereas the majority of blatant racists identified as conservative. Although several key hypotheses were not supported, this study did provide further distinctions between aversive racists, blatant racists, and non-racists. Although differences were not found between the racism groups, the pattern of findings is suggestive of aversive racism. Furthermore, the finding that aversive racists were predominantly liberal supported previous findings concerning aversive racists' political ideologies.

This research aims to detect and assess potential bias in the amount of attention different threatened species receive in the context of their conservation, and how this correlates to the species overall popularity and extinction risk, using data collected from the web. This bias was both examined in research and society in general. Extinction rates have increased significantly in the past decade due to human activity. This affects all ecosystems and is morally questionable. Using an API and the method of web scraping, data was collected from Twitter and Google Scholar respectively. The popularity of a species is defined by the number of occurrences the species have on these platforms. The conservation attention is determined by the number of occurrences in a conservation context. The data of the species conservation attention was compared to the extinction risk of the species, and the strength of the relationship between conservation attention and popularity was calculated. The results show that overall popularity seems to be more important for a species likelihood of receiving conservation attention, than its risk of extinction. Understanding that popularity is key for conservation attention is useful for successfully protecting threatened species. By either keeping this information in mind to counteract it or by taking advantage of it and reallocate resources to less popular species
Denna rapport undersöker om popularitet eller utrotningsgrad har betydelse för hur stor uppmärksamhet en utrotningshotad art får angående dess artbevarande, både inom forskning och bland allmänheten. Under de senaste decennierna har antalet arter som är utrotningshotade ökat drastiskt, som följd av männsklighetens framfart. Detta påverkar både ekosystemen och anses moraliskt tvivelaktigt. För att undersöka området samlades data in från Twitter och Google Scholar genom applikationsprogrammeringsgränssnitt (API) respektive data skrapning (data scraping). Populariteten av en art baserades på antalet förekomster den hade på plattformen. Hur mycket uppmärksamhet artens bevarande fick, bestämdes genom antalet förekomster på plattformen inom specifikt det sammanhanget. De två datamängderna jämfördes, dessutom räknades styrkan på relationen mellan uppmärksamheten inom artbevarande och populariteten ut. Resultatet påvisar att popularitet verkar viktigt för en art för att få uppmärksamhet inom även dess bevarande, medan risken för utrotning av en art inte är oviktigt för mängden uppmärksamhet. Denna insikt kan användas för att främja artbevarande för alla arter, exempelvis genom att aktivt motverka partiskheten. Eller genom att uttnyttja partiskheten för att öka intresset för artbevarande i stort med hjälp av de mest populära arterna, och på sätt öka donationerna och omfördela pengarna till även de mindre populära djuren.

In the spring of 2018, a prospection and subsequent research excavation of a previously unstudied area related to the rampart of the Viking age town of Birka, Sweden, was undertaken by students and professors from the archaeological science department affiliated with Stockholm University.The purpose of this paper is to examine and categorise the various excavated finds, the ensuing conservation and preservation of the metal objects as well as to investigate the context and possible function of the site regarding the spatial distribution of said finds.The main method used is that of metal conservation with the wet-chemical technique EDTA; a method that was deemed adequate for the treatment of the dry metal finds from the rampart excavation.The conservation and categorisation suggest that the metal posts consist of assorted metal objects, predominately rivets and nails as well as unidentified fragmented objects; the occasional slag fragment was evident. The material category of clay and ceramics contains assorted burnt clay and ceramic sherd fragments, some with decoration. Whetstone (or hone stone) and flint fragments make up most of the stone finds while the category of glass consists of a few bead fragments. The bulk of the osteological material consists of burnt and unburnt animal bones, some with slaughter marks in the form of cuts and hacks. Two human bone fragments were found; a humerus- and cranial fragment.Post holes and charcoal in the context of the rampart suggests the possibility of wooden supports and/or a superimposed wooden structure on the rampart itself that likely burnt at some point in time. The interpretation of the excavated area, based on the distribution of the finds and material categories, is that of a dumping site for discarded town refuse, most likely set against or near a walled construction; the rampart. The dating of the site is based on object similarities as well as stratigraphy and set to; Early to Late Viking Period, c. A.D. 820-1000(1150).The analyses, materials and the stratigraphy of the site together with a contextual analysis of the objects in question furthers the knowledge of Birka’s rampart and will enable future scientific inquiries into this specific rampart as well as similar fortification structures.

Agronomic outcomes are the product of a plant's genotype and its environment. Genomic technologies allow farmers and researchers new avenues to explore the genetic component of agriculture. These technologies can also enhance understanding of environmental effects. With a growing world population, a wide variety of tools will be necessary to increase the agronomic productivity. Here I use massively parallel, deep sequencing of RNA (RNA-Seq) to measure changes in cotton gene expression levels in response to a change in the plant's surroundings caused by conservation tillage. Conservation tillage is an environmentally friendly, agricultural practice characterized by little or no inversion of the soil prior to planting. In addition to changes in cotton gene expression and biological pathway activity, I assay the transcriptional activity of microbial symbiotes living in and around the cotton roots. I found a large degree of similarity between cotton individuals in different treatments. However, under conventional disk tillage I did find significantly greater activity of cotton phosphatase and sulfate transport genes, as well as greater abundance of the microbes Candidatus Burkholderia brachynathoides and Arthrobacter species L77. This study also includes the use of high-throughput physical mapping of DNA to examine the genomic structure of a wild cotton species, Gossypium raimondii, which is closely related to the economically significant crop species Gossypium hirsutum. This technology characterizes genomic regions by assembling large input DNA molecules labeled at restriction enzyme recognition sites. I created an efficient algorithm and generated 812 whole genome assemblies from two datasets. The best of these assemblies allowed us to detect 3,806 potential misassemblies in the current release of the G. raimondii genome sequence assembly.

La protection des ressources naturelles marines est un enjeu fort pour les décideurs publics. Le développement récent des aires marines protégées (AMP) contribue à ces enjeux de préservation. Les AMP ont pour objectifs de conserver les écosystèmes marins et côtiers tout en favorisant les activités humaines. La complexité de ces objectifs les rend difficiles à atteindre. L’objectif de cette thèse est de mener une analyse ex ante d’un projet d’une AMP aux îles Kuriat (Tunisie). Cette analyse représente une aide aux décideurs pour une meilleure gouvernance en intégrant les acteurs impliqués (pêcheur, visiteur, plaisancier) dans le processus de gestion. Pour ce faire, nous appliquons la méthode d’évaluation contingente (MEC) à des échantillons des pêcheurs et des visiteurs aux îles Kuriat. Nous nous intéressons au traitement des biais de sélection et d’échantillonnage et à l’incertitude sur la spécification des modèles économétriques lors de la mise en œuvre de la MEC. Nous faisons appel au modèle HeckitBMA,qui est une combinaison du modèle de Heckman (1979) et de l’inférence bayésienne, pour calculer le consentement à recevoir des pêcheurs. Nous utilisons aussi le modèle Zero inflated ordered probit (ZIOP), qui est une combinaison d’un probit binaire avec un probit ordonné, pour calculer le consentement à payer des visiteurs après avoir corrigé l’échantillon par imputation multiple. Nos résultats montrent que les groupes d’acteurs se distinguent par leur activité et leur situation économique ce qui les amène à avoir des perceptions différentes. Cela permet aux décideurs d’élaborer une politique de compensation permettant d’indemniser les acteurs ayant subi un préjudice
The protection of marine natural resources is a major challenge for policy makers. The recent development of marine protected areas (MPAs) contributes to the preservation issues. MPAs are aimed to preserve the marine and coastal ecosystems while promoting human activities. The complexity of these objectives makes them difficult to reach. The purpose of this work is to conduct an ex-ante analysis of a proposed MPA to Kuriat Islands (Tunisia). This analysis is an aid to decision makers for better governance by integrating the actors involved (fisherman, visitor, boater) in the management process. To do this, we use the contingent valuation method (CVM) to samples of fishermen and visitors to the islands Kuriat. We are interested in the treatment of selection and sampling bias and uncertainty about specifying econometric models during the implementation of the CVM. We use the model HeckitBMA, which is a combination of the Heckman model (1979) and Bayesian inference, to calculate the willingness to accept of fishermen. We also use the model Zero inflated ordered probit (ZIOP), which is a combination of a binary probit with an ordered probit, to calculate the willingness to pay of visitors after correcting the sample by multiple imputation. Our results show that groups of actors are distinguished by their activity and economic conditions that cause them to have different perceptions. This allows policy makers to develop a policy of compensation to compensate the players who have been harmed

Les régions interORF sont définies comme étant situées entre deux ORF consécutives. Le but du travail a été de les caractériser, à partir de plusieurs approches bioinformatiques à l’échelle génomique. L’organisme d’étude choisi est principalement la levure S. Cerevisiae, en raison des connaissances acquises liées aux régions interORF. Ce travail s’est donc orienté selon trois axes :1. Une étude statistique des biais de représentation (di- et trinucléotides) qui montre que ces biais concernent uniquement certains mots et que l’on peut les associer à l’appartenance taxonomique de l’organisme étudié2. Une étude de la courbure moyenne (globale et locale) prédite de l’axe de la double-hélice au voisinage de l’ATG, du STOP et des bornes de transcription : la courbure analysée avec une forte granularité est quasiment indiscernable de celle obtenue en étudiant de la même façon des séquences aléatoires respectant les linguistiques des régions concernées. 3. Une étude de la conservation des régions interORF et des ORF dans le phylum des Hémi-Ascomycètes (10 organismes) : elles sont très conservées, particulièrement pour les ORF dites « essentielles » et fortement exprimées. Afin de répondre aux problèmes posés par ces études, j’ai développé deux outils :1. GenomX, logiciel intégré destiné à tout type d’utilisateur, automatisant la plupart des tâches usuelles en bioinformatique et particulièrement utile pour des études à l’échelle génomique. 2. WInGS, un entrepôt de données génomiques sur la levure. Un contrôle interne de la cohérence de l’information est effectué ainsi qu’une intégration de plusieurs bases de données, en traitant les cas de données redondantes et divergentes
InterORF regions can be defined as located between two successive ORFs. This work aims at characterizing them, using several bioinformatic genome-scale approaches. The main organism studied is the S. Cerevisiae yeast, since many aspects related to interORF regions are already kown. Analyses have been carried out according to three ways:1. A statistical study of the di- and trinucleotides representation biases, which shows that these biases occur only for several word and that they can be associated with the taxonomy of the concerned species. 2. A study of the predicted average curvature (local and global) of the double-helix axis, close to the ATG, the STOP and the transcription boundaries : the curvature computed with a high granularity is quite the same as the one computed on random sequences, respecting the same linguistics as the studied regions. 3. A study of the conservation in the interORF and coding regions, within the phylum of the Hemi-Ascomycetous (10 species): they are highly conserved, especially for « essential » and highly expressed ORF. In order to resolve the problems generated by this work, I developed two tools :1. GenomX, an integrated software designed to be useful for all kinds of users, making easier the usual tasks in bioinformatics,particularly for genome-scale studies. 2. WInGS, a genomic data warehouse on yeast. An internal control of the information coherence is performed together with an integration of several databases, dealing with redundant and divergent data

A series of recognition memory experiments using masterwork paintings and words are reported in which participants were reliably conservative in endorsing images of paintings as “studied”. The current paper establishes the historical context of this materials-based bias effect (MBBE) and presents two new experiments aimed at characterizing the underlying mechanisms. Nine previous experiments are reviewed to illustrate the MBBE’s robustness to various encoding and test manipulations and the insufficiency of two prior hypotheses to account for its origins. Meta-analyses of response bias and sensitivity and analysis of these measures by test quartile are presented and discussed along with receiver operating characteristics and response time data for all of these experiments. In one new experiment, the response scale on the recognition test was modified to allow participants to choose from not only “studied” or “not studied” options, but also options indicating uncertainty due to the similarity among test items. The hypothesis that these similarity/confusability-related responses would be chosen more for paintings was not supported. A second new experiment aimed to better characterize the time course of the MBBE by implementing a 1-s respond deadline, which it was hypothesized would reduce the effect, but this hypothesis was also not supported. Results of all experiments are discussed in the context of unequal variance and dual process models of recognition memory.
Graduate
0633
0623
kmfallow@uvic.ca

碩士
世新大學
財務金融學研究所(含碩專班)
104
With the development of behavioral finance, the relationship between gender and behavioral bias draws growing attention. We study the relationship between gender and behavioral bias with four behavioral biases: status quo bias, conservatism bias, availability bias and loss aversion bias. The questionnaire is published by professional marketing survey website Pollster online questionnaire survey. Questionnaires were issued to investors aged 18 with at least one year experience. The survey continued from 2015/7/20 to 2015/7/24 with 1,147 valid observations. The independence chi-square test and t-test for difference between means are used in our study. Furthermore, the logistic regression is used to test whether gender difference influences behavioral bias and investing experience significantly, and if there are relationships between behavioral bias. According to our samples, status quo bias exists in 40.28% investors in Taiwan, conservatism bias 67.83%, availability bias 8.63% and loss aversion bias about 70%. Results shows that gender difference is significantly in all behavioral biases. Reporting results from test for equality shows that gender difference in proportion in all behavioral bias. The proportion in male is higher in conservatism bias, and female is higher in others. t-test for difference between means shows that male with average more experienced than female. Result from logistic regression shows that female is significantly in higher proportion of status quo bias, availability bias and loss aversion bias. Investors without conservatism bias tend to have status quo bias. Male and middle monthly income and high monthly income investors tend to have conservatism bias. Investors aged from 30 to 39, aged from 40 to 49, and aged over 60 have less tendency to conservatism bias.

This dissertation presents a new measure of U.S. inflation persistence from the point of view of a professional forecaster. In chapter 2 I explore two different measures that give insight into the views of professional forecasters and link their views with U.S. inflation data. One of these measures, given by the persistence implied by forecast revisions, appears to have similarities with actual inflation persistence over the 1981–2008 sample period. Chapter 3 explores forecast revisions in a more general setting allowing forecasters to have their own views on inflation persistence as well as a unique information set. This chapter builds a measure of perceived inflation persistence via the implied autocorrelation function that follows from the estimates obtained using a forecaster-specific state-space model. When compared to the autocorrelation function for actual inflation, forecasters tend to react less to shocks that hit inflation than the actual inflation data would suggest. This could be due to increased credibility of the Federal Reserve, but it could also be a result of a bias in the underlying inflation forecasts. Chapter 4 focuses on this issue and finds that the reluctance of forecasters to make revisions to their previously announced forecasts causes their estimates of perceived inflation persistence to be understated as their announced inflation forecasts differ from their true inflation expectations. This chapter also presents a method to undo this bias by retrieving their true inflation expectations series.
Thesis (Ph.D, Economics) -- Queen's University, 2012-12-21 15:39:23.616

Human-elephant conflict (HEC) occurs across Africa and is a major threat to the continued existence of the African elephant. To effectively implement mitigation measures, a thorough understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns of HEC is required. This study used a systematic, grid-based geographical information system (GIS) to analyse the spatial and temporal relations of HEC intensity in 2004 and 2008 with underlying environmental variables in a forest habitat, the Bia Conservation Area (BCA), Ghana. Relationships between crop-raiding incident data, Moderate Image Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) values and remotely sensed derived data were investigated at a 10 km2 scale using principal components analysis (PCA) and correlation analysis. Crop-raiding was found to be clustered into distinct areas. The onset of crop-raiding in 2004 and 2008 can be attributed to seasonal variation in vegetation biomass. Decreases in EVI values were matched with crop-raiding incidents. The high number of crop-raiding incidents in 2004 could be attributed to the large fluctuations in vegetation biomass in comparison to 2008. HEC intensity was not significantly related to the environmental variables analysed at the 10 km2 scale. These results suggest that HEC intensity may be influenced by vegetation quality, soil mineral content and/or human density. A grid-based GIS system with a 10 km2 resolution used in combination with remotely sensed data and statistical tools is useful for identifying spatial patterns of HEC, even with relatively small incident data sets. The methods used in this study could be applied to other forest habitats experiencing HEC for comparative analysis. The influence of vegetation quality, soil mineral content and human density on HEC intensity in forest habitats requires further analysis.

abstract: This work investigates the effects of non-random sampling on our understanding of species distributions and their niches. In its most general form, bias is systematic error that can obscure interpretation of analytical results by skewing samples away from the average condition of the system they represent. Here I use species distribution modelling (SDM), virtual species, and multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) to explore how sampling bias can alter our perception of broad patterns of biodiversity by distorting spatial predictions of habitat, a key characteristic in biogeographic studies. I use three separate case studies to explore: 1) How methods to account for sampling bias in species distribution modeling may alter estimates of species distributions and species-environment relationships, 2) How accounting for sampling bias in fossil data may change our understanding of paleo-distributions and interpretation of niche stability through time (i.e. niche conservation), and 3) How a novel use of MGWR can account for environmental sampling bias to reveal landscape patterns of local niche differences among proximal, but non-overlapping sister taxa. Broadly, my work shows that sampling bias present in commonly used federated global biodiversity observations is more than enough to degrade model performance of spatial predictions and niche characteristics. Measures commonly used to account for this bias can negate much loss, but only in certain conditions, and did not improve the ability to correctly identify explanatory variables or recreate species-environment relationships. Paleo-distributions calibrated on biased fossil records were improved with the use of a novel method to directly estimate the biased sampling distribution, which can be generalized to finer time slices for further paleontological studies. Finally, I show how a novel coupling of SDM and MGWR can illuminate local differences in niche separation that more closely match landscape genotypic variability in the two North American desert tortoise species than does their current taxonomic delineation.
Dissertation/Thesis
Doctoral Dissertation Geography 2018

Detaillierte Informationen über die Verbreitungsareale von Arten sind essentiell für die Beantwortung zentraler Fragen der Ökologie, Evolutionsbiologie und Biogeographie. Solche Informationen sind auch notwendig, um Naturschutzressourcen kostenwirksam zwischen verschiedenen Regionen und Maßnahmen zu verteilen. Unser Wissen über Artverbreitungen beruht vor allem auf Punktdaten, die das Vorkommen einer bestimmten Art an einem bestimmten Ort zu einem bestimmten Zeitpunkt belegen (nachstehend „Records“). Riesige Mengen solcher Records wurden über internationale Data-Sharing-Netzwerke mobilisiert, allen voran durch die Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF). Auch wenn diese Netzwerke die Zugänglichkeit zu solchen Informationen enorm verbessert haben, ist unser Wissen über globale Artverbreitungen immer noch äußerst lückenhaft und von grober räumlicher Auflösung – der sogenannte Wallace’sche Wissensrückstand. Vorhandene Informationen enthalten zudem zahlreiche Unsicherheiten, Fehler und Daten-‘Biases’. Diese könnten durch Ort-spezifische Faktoren wie Zugänglichkeit oder durch artspezifische Faktoren, wie Entdeckungswahrscheinlichkeit, verursacht werden. Zukünftiges Sammeln und Mobilisieren von Informationen sollte so gestaltet werden, dass der erreichte Nutzen der Records für Forschung und Naturschutz maximiert wird. Hierfür ist ein tiefgehendes Verständnis der Lücken, Unsicherheiten und Biases in den Informationen sowie der sie verursachenden Faktoren notwendig. Bisher wurden diese Mängel in globalen Artverbreitungsinformationen niemals quantitativ untersucht. Mit meiner Dissertation liefere ich die ersten globalen Analysen zu Mängeln von digital verfügbaren Verbreitungsinformationen für terrestrische Wirbeltiere und Landpflanzen. Ich habe >300 Millionen Records für Landpflanzen und drei Gruppen terrestrischer Wirbeltiere (Amphibien, Säugetiere, Vögel) über GBIF abgerufen. Diese Informationen habe ich mit taxonomischen Datenbanken sowie unabhängigen Verbreitungskarten und Checklisten verbunden. Auf Grundlage der erstellten Datensätze habe ich unterschiedliche Formen von Informations-Mängeln für verschiedene taxonomische Gruppen und auf mehreren räumlichen Maßstäben untersucht. In Kapitel I habe Daten-Abdeckung sowie Daten-Unsicherheiten in Informationen zu Pflanzenvorkommen jeweils in Bezug auf Taxonomie, Raum und Zeit quantifiziert. Für diese insgesamt 6 Maße habe in anschließend Variation in den drei Dimensionen (Taxonomie, Raum, Zeit) gemessen. Zudem habe ich mithilfe von paarweisen Spearman-Rang-Korrelationen und Hauptkomponentenanalysen die Zusammenhänge zwischen diesen verschiedenen Formen von Informationsmängeln analysiert. In Kapitel II habe ich anhand von terrestrischen Wirbeltieren zwei spezielle Aspekte von Datenabdeckung zwischen geographischen Regionen verglichen: i) die Datendichte und ii) die Vollständigkeit der abgedeckten Arten. Durch Multi-Modell-Analysen habe ich die Effekte von zwölf potentiellen sozioökonomischen Einflussfaktoren auf Informationsmängel verglichen, und zwar einzeln für jede der drei Wirbeltiergruppen auf jeder von vier verschiedenen räumlichen Auflösungen. In Kapitel III habe ich anhand von Säugetieren drei Aspekte von Datenabdeckung zwischen einzelnen Arten verglichen: i) die Anzahl von Records pro Art, ii) die räumliche Abdeckung der Verbreitungsareale durch Records, und iii) den räumlichen Bias in der Abdeckung verschiedener Teile der Verbreitungsareale. Durch Multi-Modell-Analysen und Variations-Partitionierung habe ich die Effekte von verschiedenen Artmerkmalen, Größe und Form der Verbreitungsareale sowie von sozioökonomischen Faktoren untersucht. Diese Analysen habe ich auf globalem Maßstab sowie einzeln für sechs zoogeographische Gebiete durchgeführt. In meiner Dissertation habe ich in allen untersuchten Aspekten von Artverbreitungsinformationen starke Biases gefunden. Die Anzahl von Records variierte um mehrere Größenordnungen zwischen Arten und zwischen geographischen Gebieten. Verschiedene Maße von Datenabdeckung und Datenunsicherheiten zeigten klare taxonomische, geographische und zeitliche Muster. Ich fand beispielsweise Höchstwerte von taxonomischer Abdeckung in industrialisierten westlichen Ländern, aber auch in einigen tropischen Gebieten wie Mexiko. Im Gegensatz dazu gab es in weiten Teilen Afrikas und Asiens entweder gar keine oder nur sehr veraltete Informationen. Da taxonomische, räumliche und zeitliche Abdeckung jeweils durch die Anzahl der Records numerisch eingeschränkt sind, fand ich zwischen diesen Maßen gemäßigte bis starke positive Korrelationen. Maße von Datenunsicherheiten hingegen korrelierten kaum untereinander oder mit Datenabdeckungsmaßen. In Kapitel II habe ich den Einfluss von zwölf potentiellen sozioökonomischen Einflussfaktoren auf Datendichte und Datenvollständigkeit von geographischen Artgemeinschaften untersucht. Nur vier hatten einen durchweg für alle untersuchten Wirbeltiergruppen und räumlichen Auflösungen starken Einfluss. Dies waren der Endemitenreichtum, die räumliche Nähe zu Daten-beisteuernden Institutionen, politische Mitgliedschaft im GBIF-Netzwerk, sowie lokal verfügbare Forschungsgelder. Andere Faktoren, von denen man oft annimmt, dass sie eine große Rolle spielen würden, hatten einen erstaunlich geringen Einfluss, wie z.B. Verkehrsinfrastruktur oder Größe und Finanzausstattungen westlicher Daten-beisteuernder Institutionen. Meine Analysen in Kapitel III ergaben, dass die vier in Kapitel II identifizierten sozioökonomischen Schlüsselfaktoren ebenfalls einen starken Einfluss auf Artverbreitungsinformationen auf der Ebene von einzelnen Arten hatten. Jedoch unterschied sich ihre relative Wichtigkeit deutlich zwischen geographischen Gebieten. Zwischenartliche Unterschiede in Verbreitungsinformationen waren zudem sehr stark durch Größe und Form der Verbreitungsareale beeinflusst. Dies unterstützt meine Hypothese, dass diese geometrischen Faktoren die Wahrscheinlichkeit beeinflussen, dass sich Verbreitungsgebiete bestimmter Arten mit Untersuchungsgebieten von Feldforschern überschneiden, was wiederum Aufswirkungen auf die Wahrscheinlichkeiten hat, mit denen diese Arten besammelt werden. Entgegen unserer Annahmen hatten Artmerkmale wie etwa Nachtaktivität, die das Entdecken oder Sammeln bestimmter Arten wahrscheinlich machen sollten, kaum einen Einfluss auf zwischenartliche Unterschiede in Verbreitungsinformationen. Die Ergebnisse meiner Dissertation lassen wichtige Schlussfolgerungen darüber zu, wie mobilisierte Artverbreitungsinformationen effizient genutzt und verbessert werden können. Erstens belegen meine Ergebnisse schwerwiegende Mängel in digital verfügbaren Artverbreitungsinformationen, insbesondere für Gebiete und Arten von besonderer Wichtigkeit für den Naturschutz. Zweitens zeigen sie, dass für die allermeisten Arten feiner aufgelöste Informationen nur durch Artverbreitungsmodelle erreicht werden können, die mit geringen Datenmengen auskommen, die starke Datenunsicherheiten und Biases innehaben. Eine vielversprechende Methode, um in solchen Modellen mit Biases umzugeben, ist das explizite Einbeziehen der Bias-verursachenden Faktoren in die Modelle, und meine Ergebnisse bieten hilfreiche Anhaltspunkte für die Auswahl relevanter Faktoren. Drittens schaffen meine Ergebnisse eine empirische Grundlage zur Überwachung von Fortschritten in der Verbesserung weltweiter Artverbreitungsinformationen. Schließlich schafft mein Identifizieren der global wichtigsten Informations-limitierenden Faktoren sowie das Unterscheiden verschiedener Informationsaspekte eine Grundlage dafür, um Aktivitäten zu identifizieren, die Datenmängel effektiv beheben können. Als wichtigste Aktivitäten empfehle ich unter anderem i) das Unterstützen von Bemühungen zur Datenmobilisierung in Institutionen, die in geographischer Nähe zu datenarmen Gebieten liegen, ii) das Fördern von Kooperation zwischen großen Schwellenländern und Data-Sharing-Netzwerken, iii) die Durchführung von neuen Biodiversitäts-Surveys im zentralen Afrika und südlichen Asien, um weitgehend veraltete Informationen zu aktualisieren, und iv) das Verschieben des Fokus von Datensammel- und Datenmobilisierungsbemühungen auf Asien sowie Arten mit begrenzten Verbreitungsarealen.