Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Demand site flexibility'

The thesis aims to obtain a holistic perspective of opportunities, drivers and barriers that different grid customers experience when enabling demand side flexibility. Due to the increasing problems of capacity shortage of electricity in large cities in Sweden, solutions on the demand side of the electric power grid have become increasingly interesting. Demand side flexibility is a voluntary change of demanded electricity from the grid due to some kind of incentive, which can help support balancing the electric power grid to avoid capacity shortages. Furthermore, the energy transition towards a decentralised power system with an increasing share of variable renewable energy requires a changed demand profile. In this research, a qualitative research methodology was applied. Eleven semi-structured interviews were conducted with case companies within the industry and property company segment. Interviews were also conducted with three actors on the electric power market providing services to aggregate the potential of smaller flexibility resources, as well as with an expert from the Swedish Energy Market Inspectorate. A State of the Art review was completed in order to collect theory and draft previously identified aspects of demand side flexibility. The result shows that the concept is not unknown amongst electricity customers. However, there is a limited knowledge and interest in enabling demand side flexibility. The knowledge gap includes the awareness of potential flexibility resources as well as business opportunities of providing flexibility services. Conflicting priorities within organisations also presents an important barrier, where other easier and more profitable measures may be prioritised. There is also a fear of disrupting core business by causing loss of quality, comfort or production, which proposes a barrier. To overcome mentioned barriers and increase flexibility the financial benefits have to be distinctive and clear. Further, case companies express an ambition of contribution to the environment and sustainable development. By increasing the awareness of the benefits which increased flexibility induces, electricity consumers can become more motivated in adapting a flexible consumption. In addition, case companies express a desire of being early adopters in order to prevent future forced participation or termination of business. In order to enable demand side flexibility the knowledge and interest of the concept must increase. This should be done by providing clear, comprehensible information about the business opportunities of demand side flexibility as well as showcasing successful examples of implementation. Furthermore, it should include suggestions of easy, economical measures different grid customers could carry out to increase their flexibility. By providing this information the interest in flexibility can increase, thus increase the implementation and participation.

This thesis investigates methodologies for valuing the flexibility of demand-side response (DSR) in its ability to respond to future uncertainties. The ability to quantify this flexibility is especially important for energy systems investments given their large and irreversible capital costs. The consideration of uncertainty in electricity markets and energy networks requires solutions that allow decision makers to quickly respond to unexpected events, such as extreme short-term electricity price variations in an operational setting, or incorrect long-term demand projections in planning. This uncertainty, coupled with the irreversibility of energy network investments, results in the need for viable 'wait-and-see' investment strategies that can help hedge electicity price risk in the short-term while hedging planning risk in the long-term, until at least some, if not all, uncertainty is resolved. In both cases, this leads to an added value in the case of temporary flexible investment options like DSR, which may otherwise be considered unattractive under a deterministic analysis setting. A number of significant contributions to power systems research are offered in this work, focusing on valuation methods for quantifying the flexibility value of DSR under both short-term and long-term uncertainty. The first outcome of this research is an extensive review of current real options (RO) methods that clarifies the assumptions and utilization of RO for decision-making in engineering applications. It suggests that many of the assumptions used contribute to a misuse of the models when applied to physical systems. A framework for investing under uncertainty is proposed, where the methodologies, steps, inputs, assumptions, limitations and advantages of different RO models are described so as to offer a practical guide to decision makers for selecting the most appropriate RO model for their valuation purposes. The second outcome is the design of a probabilistic RO framework and operational model for DSR that quantifies its benefits as an energy service for hedging different market price risks. A mathematical formulation for applying “real options thinking” is presented that provides decision makers with a means of quantifying the value of DSR when both operational and planning decisions are subject to uncertainty. In particular, DSR contracts can have tremendous value as an arbitrage or portfolio-balancing tool, helping hedge almost entirely electricity price risk in day-ahead and real-time markets, especially when prices are highly volatile. This value is quantified using a novel RO framework that frees the decision maker from the assumptions needed in financial option models. A new load forecasting and price simulation model is also developed to forecast load profiles and simulate new price series with different average values, higher volatilities and extreme price spikes to represent potential future market scenarios and to determine under which conditions DSR has the most value. The valuation of a DSR investment is then presented to show how the physical characteristics of a system, in this case the physical load recovery effect of loads after a DSR activation, can tremendously affect the profitability of an investment when uncertainty is taken into account. The third outcome of this work is the development of a complete, general and practical tool for making long-term multi-staged investment decisions in future power networks under multiple uncertainties. It is argued throughout this work that many of the current methods are either unsuitable for long-term investment valuation or are too complex for practical application and implementation at the industry level. A strategic spreadsheet-based tool for making long-term investment decisions under uncertainty is therefore created and tested in collaboration with industry for solving real network planning problems.

Demand-Side Flexibility (DSF) is a very attractive option to solve challenges that are emerging from the evolution of modern power systems all around the world. The greater integration of intermittent renewable energy sources into the energy mix creates the need for flexible end-user behavior and demand management. In Singapore, distributed power production grows steadily in the form of rooftop solar PV panels installed on both households and commercial buildings, where the main load demand is cooling and air conditioning. Challenges arise also from the projected rapid increase in the penetration of Electric Vehicles (EVs). The charging routines of EVs could represent a high and potentially dangerous power peak that the current electrical grid is not able to withstand. Providing the ability to shift the demand profile of a large building or a neighborhood with minimum modifications of the electrical grid, DSF is poised to play a central role in solving these challenges during the next 10-20 years. This study proposes linear mathematical modeling for the optimum utilization of sensible-heat thermal and electrochemical battery energy storage, implemented in the already existing building modelling framework developed by TUM-CREATE, the CoBMo. An optimization problem is defined aiming to minimize the total cost as the sum of operational costs from the electricity consumption of the HVAC system and the investment costs for the energy storage. Financial payback analysis is performed using the CoBMo version improved with the mathematical model to estimate the achievable annual savings. The discounted payback time is considered as an economic indicator to whether the storage would be a valid investment or not depending on the electricity price signal – wholesale and retailer – as well as on the storage operation setup and installation costs, lifetime, efficiency, etc. The economic analysis shows that both the thermal energy and battery storage options are feasible for office buildings in Singapore considering the investment conditions from year 2020 onwards. While chilled-water thermal energy storage is well established and relatively simple technology, the battery storage displays better economic return when selecting Li-Ion Nickel Manganese Cobalt (NMC) technology. The optimal daily schedule of both storage solutions is presented in this study, showing how the optimization tool leverages the price signals, relying on trade-offs between operational expenditures and investment costs for the energy storage systems.<br>Den inbyggda flexibiliteten av elkonsumtion vid slutanvändarna för att jämna ut en varierande tillförsel av elkraft från produktionssidan kallas för ”Demand-Side Flexibility” (DSF). DSF är ett attraktivt verktyg för att lösa utmaningarna som uppstår från den växande andelen elproduktion baserad på varierande energikällor såsom solkraft och vindkraft, som utvecklas överallt i världen. I Singapore växer utbyggnaden av solkraft mycket snabbt i form av solceller på byggnaders tak och den större integrationen av förnybara resurser i energiblandningen skapar ett behov av att göra efterfrågan flexibel med tanke på det typiskt stora andelen kyla och luftkonditionering. Utmaningar uppstår också från den förväntade snabba ökningen av antalet elfordon vems laddningsrutiner representerar en hög och potentiellt farlig effekttopp som det nuvarande elnätet kommer snart inte kunna tåla. Därför spelar DSF-tekniken en central roll när det gäller effektiva lösningar för dessa utmaningar inom de kommande 10-20 åren. Studien härmed föreslår en optimeringsmetod baserad på linjära matematiska modeller för byggnadsintegrerade energilaggringssystem i form av både kylvattenlagring och elbatterier. Metoden implementeras i ett redan befintligt program för modellering av byggnadsenergisystem som utvecklats av TUM-CREATE och kallas för CoBMo. Optimeringsmålet definieras för att minimera den totala kostnaden som är summan av driftskostnaderna för VVS-systemet samt investeringskostnaderna för energilagringen. En ekonomisk återbetalningsanalys utförs med hjälp av CoBMo-programmet förbättrad med det härmed utvecklade optimeringsverktyget som utvärderar de årliga besparingarna. Återbetalningstiden betraktas som en ekonomisk indikator på huruvida energilagringen skulle varit en giltig investering eller ej, beroende på en varierande elprissignal – både grossist elhandel och elpriset för småkunder – och även energilagringens användarprofil och effektivitet samt kostnaderna för installation, underhåll, avskrivningar, m.m. Den ekonomiska analysen visar att både kylvattenackumulator samt elbatterier integrerade i kontorsbyggnader i Singapore kan leverera avkastning med tanke på det förväntade investeringsklimatet från och med år 2020. Även om lagringen av värme och kyla är en beprövad och relativt enkel teknik, studien visar att batterilagring står sig bättre ekonomiskt, särskilt när man väljer Li-Ion Nickel Mangan Cobalt (NMC) tekniken. Den optimala dagliga laddnings- och urladdningsstrategin för vardera energilagringslösningen presenteras i resultaten från denna studie, vilket visar hur optimeringsmodellen utnyttjar de prissignaler som tillhandahålls och gör en avvägning mellan driftsutgifter och investeringskostnader för energilagringen.

District heating plays a major role in the Swedish energy system. It is deemed a renewable energy source and is the main provider for multi-family dwellings with 90 %. Although the district heating fuel mix consists of majority renewables, a share of 5 % is provided from fossil fuels. To reduce fossil fuel usage and eradicate CO2-emissions from the district heating system new solutions are sought after. In this project, the potential for shortterm thermal energy storage in buildings is investigated. This concept is referred to as customer flexibility. Demand flexibility is created in the district heating system (DHS) by varying the indoor temperature in 50 multi-family dwellings with maximum 1◦C, without jeopardizing the thermal comfort for the tenants. The flexible load makes it possible to store energy shortterm in the building’ envelope. Consequently, heat load curves are evened in production. This leads to a reduction of the peak load in the DHS. Peaks are associated with high costs and environmental impact. Therefore, the potential benefits of customer flexibility are reduced peak production, fuel costs, and CO2-emissions, depending on the fuel mix in the DHS. The project objective is to examine the techno-economic potential of customer flexibility in a specific DHS. The case study is made in a DHS owned by the company Vattenfall, located in the Stockholm area. To evaluate the potential benefits of implementing the concept, seven key performance indicators are chosen. They are peak power, peak fuel usage, produced volume, total fuel cost, fuel cost per produced MWh, climate footprint, and primary energy. Moreover, an in-house optimization model is used to simulate multiple scenarios of the district heating DHS. Different sets of assumptions about the available flexibility in the DHS and the thermal characteristics of the buildings are made. Customer flexibility is modeled as virtual heat storage that can be charged up or down depending on the speed and size of the available storage at a specific outdoor temperature. Simulation results give a maximum peak power reduction of 10.9 % and annual fuel cost reduction between 0.9-3.6 % depending on the scenario. The results found are comparable to values found in similar studies. However, the environmental key performance indicators generated an increase in CO2-emissions and primary energy compared to the baseline scenarios. The result would have looked different if fossil fuels were used in peak production instead of biofuels. The master thesis also aimed to validate assumptions and parameters made in the input data to the optimization model. This was achieved by using results attained from a pilot in the specific DHS. Therefore results generated from the simulations are deemed accurate and confirm that customer flexibility leads to reduced peak production and DHS optimization.<br>Se filen

En el marco de un mercado de la electricidad con precios cada vez más altos y donde la participación de fuentes renovables de generación está jugando un papel cada vez más importante, esta tesis supone un enfoque innovador hacia la participación de recursos de demanda en mercados de operación, prestando una atención especial a segmentos industriales como el sector alimentario con un consumo energético intensivo. En primer lugar, esta tesis describe detalladamente la situación actual de los programas de respuesta de la demanda que existen en diferentes partes del mundo. Este estudio permite concluir que los consumidores no han sido tenidos en cuenta suficientemente en la fase de diseño de los programas existentes, lo que ha provocado la infrautilización de recursos de demanda que, actualmente, permanecen sin explorar. Por otro lado, los consumidores no son conscientes del valor que su flexibilidad podría tener para el sistema eléctrico en su conjunto, ignorando que puedan existir otros agentes dispuestos a pagarles a cambio de reducir sus cargas en períodos determinados. Como resultado, esta tesis desarrolla una nueva metodología para explorar y valorar nuevos mecanismos de respuesta de la demanda donde el punto de vista de consumidores, operadores de red y cualquier otro agente interesado pueda ser tenido en cuenta. Esta metodología, basada en la evaluación y análisis detallado de los procesos, proporciona a los consumidores las herramientas adecuadas para evaluar su capacidad para reaccionar al precio de la electricidad, lo que permitiría al regulador poner en valor el beneficio social de dicha flexibilidad si pudiera ser utilizada en mercados de operación, ayudándole a definir los programas necesarios para utilizar de forma adecuada el potencial identificado por los consumidores. La metodología desarrollada en esta tesis ha sido aplicada satisfactoriamente al sub-segmento de la industria cárnica, por lo que varias fábricas pertenecientes a este segmento han sido estudiadas en detalle. En concreto, la factibilidad de las acciones propuestas ha sido probada y validada satisfactoriamente en una fábrica dedicada a la producción de jamón curado en España, en la que se han evaluado diferentes estrategias de flexibilidad. Finalmente, se ha realizado una evaluación económica de la rentabilidad de la aplicación de las acciones de flexibilidad propuestas tanto para el consumidor como para el sistema eléctrico en su conjunto, donde se han considerado los precios reales de los mercados de operación en España, aun cuando los consumidores no puedan participar realmente en dichos mercados en la actualidad.<br>Alcázar Ortega, M. (2011). Evaluation and Assessment of New Demand Response Products based on the use of Flexibility in Industrial Processes: Application to the Food Industry [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/10078<br>Palancia

Dans le cadre de la réduction de l'impact environnemental du secteur des transports de personnes et de marchandises, la mobilité électrique est amenée à se développer dans les années à venir. La recharge des véhicules électriques (VE) présente un potentiel intrinsèque de flexibilité de la consommation électrique, du fait de périodes de connexion généralement plus longues que nécessaire pour recharger le véhicule, en particulier pour les véhicules individuels. Cette thèse se focalise sur l'étude de cette flexibilité de consommation, qui permet de réduire les coûts opérationnels et les émissions de carbone du système électrique, en particulier à horizon prospectif de forte diffusion de la mobilité électrique. Afin de traiter ce sujet de recherche, l'introduction présente les enjeux de décarbonation des secteurs du transport et de production d'électricité en France ainsi que leurs interactions. Dans un second temps, les principales méthodes de modélisation des VEs et de leur impact sur différents aspects du système électrique sont décrites. Ensuite, un modèle pour obtenir des données de connexion et de demande électrique de ces véhicules, à partir de données d'enquête transport, est proposé. Finalement, l'intégration de ces données dans un modèle de dispatch horaire du système électrique Européen est présentée, puis illustrée sur diverses hypothèses relatives au développement de la mobilité électrique à horizon 2040. Cette méthodologie permet ainsi la comparaison des principaux modes de pilotage de la recharge des VE, ainsi que l'identification des paramètres qui influent le plus sur la valeur de cette flexibilité de consommation : le prix des combustibles fossiles ainsi que les variantes sur la diffusion des modes de pilotage des VE<br>In the context of environmental impact reduction of the passenger and freight transport sectors, electric mobility is set to grow in the coming years. Electric vehicle (EV) charging has a natural potential for electricity demand flexibility as connection periods are generally longer than the necessary charging time, especially for individual vehicles. This thesis focuses on the study of this demand-side flexibility, which induces a reduction of the operational costs and carbon emissions of the electricity system, in particular in scenarios with substantial diffusion of electric mobility. The analysis begins with a discussion of the decarbonization pathways of the French transport and electricity generation sectors as well as their mutual interactions. This is followed by a description of the state-of-the-art methods for modeling EVs and their impact on different aspects of the electricity system. A model to generate EV connection and electrical demand data based on transport survey data is then proposed. Finally, the integration of these data in an hourly dispatch model of the European power system is presented and illustrated on various scenarios of the electric mobility development by 2040. This methodology allows the comparison of the foremost EV smart charging modes, as well as the identification of the parameters that most influence the value of this demand-side flexibility: the price of fossil fuels and the level of diffusion of the various EV smart charging modes

Purpose: The purpose of the study is to examine households attitudes and commitment to demand side flexibility as well as the various actors perceptions of the division of responsibilities in the electricity market and the information available to households. Research questions:                   – What are the main factors for private electricity customers to be able to contribute with demand side flexibility to the electricity system? – What challenges and opportunities can be identified with increased demand side flexibility? Method: The study was based on an abductive approach, where the collection of primary data is of a quantitative and qualitative nature. The qualitative part was collected through 9 semi-structured interviews with actors linked to the electricity market. Collection of quantitative data was done through a survey aimed at households with a total of 110 respondents. The results of the data collection have been analyzed thematically together with the theoretical framework. Conclusions: The main factors for increased demand flexibility are, firstly, a clear division of responsibilities between authorities, households and other players in the electricity market. Secondly, well-developed information channels are required that can be made possible through new technology. Finally, an electricity market is required that allows new actors such as an aggregator. The challenges include engaging households, currently low profitability for demand side flexibility and a set of regulations and tariffs that are lagging behind in development. The opportunities are future changes in the electricity price that speak in favor of increased profitability for demand side flexibility and a change to more dynamic and flexible electricity network tariffs.

Aggregators targeting smaller customers, and their possibility to alleviate grid congestions through local flexibility markets, is a new concept in Sweden. The study’s purpose consisted of four main objectives. Investigate SthlmFlex and compare it to two other European flexibility markets. Explore the institutional, technical, financial and social considerations of an aggregator in Sweden. Identify barriers for the aggregators considerations as well as market barriers for SthlmFlex. Lastly, estimate the potential of aggregated demand side flexibility from heat pumps and electric vehicles in single-family houses to alleviate grid congestions in Stockholm 2021-2030. The study mainly followed an exploratory research approach where literature review was combined with interviews. A quantitative approach was applied for the estimation of the potential. SthlmFlex is an open market that offers trade of flexibility services as well as temporary subscriptions that allows Ellevio and Vattenfall to manage grid congestions through different solutions. The most noticeable difference in the comparison of markets was that SthlmFlex did not offer an integrated rebalancing mechanism. New Swedish regulations that will enable independent aggregation will be enforced in the beginning of 2022 and will facilitate the operation and acquisition of customers for aggregators. The aggregator requires a technical setup of both hardware and software to gain control of the technology and active the flexibility service. The business model is centred on sales of the technical system, which enables implicit and explicit services. Explicit services constitute a small part of the total revenue stream which is due to the low prices offered on flexibility markets. The aggregator has to consider the customers’ view on demand side flexibility and their competence within the electricity system. The study concluded that there is enough demand side flexibility potential in single-family houses to alleviate grid congestions in Stockholm from 2021-2030. However, several barriers were identified that limits the realization of this potential and the development of aggregators in Sweden. These include barriers related to balance responsibility, measurements and low revenue streams. Barriers in terms of market design and market approach were also identified specifically for SthlmFlex.<br>Aggregatorer som riktar sig mot mindre kunder, samt deras möjligheter att bidra till att minska flaskhalsarna i elnätet, är ett nytt koncept i Sverige. Studiens syfte bestod av fyra huvudmål. Utforska SthlmFlex och jämföra den med två andra europeiska flexibilitetsmarknader. Undersöka de institutionella, tekniska, finansiella och sociala övervägandena för en aggregator i Sverige. Identifiera barriärer för aggregatorns överväganden samt marknadsbarriärer för SthlmFlex. Slutligen, uppskatta potentialen av aggregerad efterfrågeflexibilitet från värmepumpar och elbilar i småhus för att underlätta flaskhalsar i elnätet i Stockholm från 2021–2030. Studien följde en utforskande ansats där litteraturstudier kombinerades med intervjuer. En kvantitativ metod användes för att uppskatta potentialen.SthlmFlex är en öppen marknad som erbjuder handel av flexibilitetstjänster samt tillfälliga abonnemang som tillåter Ellevio och Vattenfall hantera flaskhalsar i elnätet genom olika lösningar. Den mest noterbara skillnaden i jämförelsen av marknader var att SthlmFlex inte erbjöd en integrerad åter balanserande mekanism. Nya svenska regler som möjliggör oberoende aggregering träder i kraft i början av 2022 och kommer underlätta driften och införskaffning av kunder för aggregatorn. Aggregatorn kräver en teknisk struktur som med både hårdvara och mjukvara för att få kontroll av teknologin och aktivera flexibilitetstjänster. Affärsmodellen kretsar kring försäljning av det tekniska systemet som möjliggör tjänster som implicit, explicit och övriga. Explicita tjänster utgör en väldigt liten del av den totala intäktsmodellen, bland annat på grund av de låga priserna som erbjuds på flexibilitetsmarknader. Aggregatorn måste ta hänsyn till kundernas inställning till efterfrågeflexibilitet samt deras kompetens inom elsystemet. Studiens slutsats visar att den potentiella efterfrågeflexibiliteten hos småhus är tillräcklig för att underlätta flaskhalsar i elsystemet i Stockholm från 2021–2030. Flera barriärer identifierades som begränsar realisationen av denna potential och utvecklingen av aggregatorer i Sverige. Dessa inkluderade barriärer relaterade till balansansvar, mätning och låga inkomstströmmar. Barriärer i form av marknadsdesign och syfte med marknad identifierades även för SthlmFlex.

Les années 1970-1980 ont été marquées à la fois par un développement remarquable des flexibilités et par un glissement graduel des préférences des firmes vers les formes de flexibilité centrées sur l'emplqi. La plupart des interprétations existantes mettent en avant un besoin d'adaptation accru des firmes face à un environnement de plus en plus incertain et fluctuant. Cependant, les explications avancées sont souvent générales et rarement validées; à tel point que l'on peut considérer qu'en matière d'analyse des pratiques de flexibilité, on reste encore confronté à une véritable énigme. L'objectif de cette thèse est bien de tenter de résoudre cette énigme. De manière plus précise, on cherche à comprendre les mécanismes qui conduisent les firmes à privilégier la flexibilité du travail et de l'emploi au détriment des autres formes d'adaptation existantes. En partant de l'idée que les stratégies d'adaptation, quelle que soit leur forme, reposent sur un choix rationnel, nous construisons une théorie originale du choix d'adaptation des firmes. Cette théorie nous permet de définir les véritables déterminants de leurs choix face à des variations de demande, qu'elles soient prévisibles ou imprévisibles et partant, de proposer une interprétation aux changements observés dans les pratiques.

L'électricité se stockant difficilement à grande échelle, l'équilibre entre la production et la consommation doit être rigoureusement maintenu. Une gestion par anticipation de la demande se complexifie avec l'intégration au mix de production des énergies renouvelables intermittentes. Parallèlement, le déploiement des compteurs communicants permet d'envisager un pilotage dynamique de la consommation électrique. Plus concrètement, l'envoi de signaux - tels que des changements du prix de l'électricité – permettrait d'inciter les usagers à moduler leur consommation afin qu'elle s'ajuste au mieux à la production d'électricité. Les algorithmes choisissant ces signaux devront apprendre la réaction des consommateurs face aux envois tout en les optimisant (compromis exploration-exploitation). Notre approche, fondée sur la théorie des bandits, a permis de formaliser ce problème d'apprentissage séquentiel et de proposer un premier algorithme pour piloter la demande électrique d'une population homogène de consommateurs. Une borne supérieure d'ordre T⅔ a été obtenue sur le regret de cet algorithme. Des expériences réalisées sur des données de consommation de foyers soumis à des changements dynamiques du prix de l'électricité illustrent ce résultat théorique. Un jeu de données en « information complète » étant nécessaire pour tester un algorithme de bandits, un simulateur de données de consommation fondé sur les auto-encodeurs variationnels a ensuite été construit. Afin de s'affranchir de l'hypothèse d'homogénéité de la population, une approche pour segmenter les foyers en fonction de leurs habitudes de consommation est aussi proposée. Ces différents travaux sont finalement combinés pour proposer et tester des algorithmes de bandits pour un pilotage personnalisé de la consommation électrique<br>As electricity is hard to store, the balance between production and consumption must be strictly maintained. With the integration of intermittent renewable energies into the production mix, the management of the balance becomes complex. At the same time, the deployment of smart meters suggests demand response. More precisely, sending signals - such as changes in the price of electricity - would encourage users to modulate their consumption according to the production of electricity. The algorithms used to choose these signals have to learn consumer reactions and, in the same time, to optimize them (exploration-exploration trade-off). Our approach is based on bandit theory and formalizes this sequential learning problem. We propose a first algorithm to control the electrical demand of a homogeneous population of consumers and offer T⅔ upper bound on its regret. Experiments on a real data set in which price incentives were offered illustrate these theoretical results. As a “full information” dataset is required to test bandit algorithms, a consumption data generator based on variational autoencoders is built. In order to drop the assumption of the population homogeneity, we propose an approach to cluster households according to their consumption profile. These different works are finally combined to propose and test a bandit algorithm for personalized demand side management

The load in the electricity grid fluctuates during the day and between seasons. As a distribution system operator (DSO), an uneven load profile leads to increased transmission losses and unnecessary high costs for subscribing power from the feeding grid. Efficiency measures and a more even power consumption by the end-users, could therefore lead to that a DSO can achieve lower costs for power-subscription from the feeding grid and transmission losses, but also implies a lowered cap of total revenues. As a step towards implementing the EU energy efficiency directive, the Energy Markets Inspectorate (Ei) have developed two economic incentives which enables for DSOs to profit economically from cost reductions related to transmission losses and feeding grid. For this reason the electricity suppliers Storuman Energi and Affärsverken Energi sees a possibility to offer a load shift-service to low voltage DSOs using the flexibility in the demand of electrically heated households. The aim of this study is therefore to demonstrate how a service such as this one can be valued in the Swedish electricity market. The task at hand was examined by conducting a survey of the values of demand-side flexibility, as well as an investigation of how the costs for the end-user and incentives for the DSO are affected by flexibility. A review of the values associated with demand-side flexibility has been conducted for electricity suppliers, DSOs and end-users. With regard to the DSOs, the main value is connected to the new economic incentives from Ei, whose potential depends on the properties of the grid and the tariff for the feeding grid. Other values related to operation and delivery reliability can also be achieved. The main values for electricity suppliers are a lowered risk for unbalance following as a consequence of better knowledge of their end-users’ usage, and also the possibility to profit by offering a load shift-service. The values for end-users have been divided between cost reductions and system benefits, both of which are regarded to compensate the remuneration end-users require to offer their flexibility. By adapting consumption after the spot market price or the grid tariff, lowered costs for electricity can be achieved. The end-users can also appreciate system-benefits such as the facilitation for intermittent renewable electricity production, electric vehicles and reducing the societal dependency on expensive fossil-fuelled power generation as positive. They do on the other hand regard a possible depreciation of the heat comfort, data confidentiality and reduced control over one’s own electricity consumption as negative. If the service can be bundled with equipment which yields other values, such as an increased heat comfort, the end-users’ demand for remuneration can decrease. To explore what effects demand-side flexibility can have on the electricity costs of end-users and the economic incentives for DSOs, a case study is conducted in the electricity distribution grid of Karlskrona. Through review of previous studies, a potential for demand reductions was established and used as input in the case study. It can be determined that the incentive for a more even load profile constitutes a substantially greater share of the total incentives, compared to the incentive for reduced distribution losses. It is further concluded that a fairly large part of the incentives can be achieved by controlling the end-users on only a few occasions each year. It is also established that the cost reductions for end-users can match their demand for remuneration. A future scenario with more electrical vehicles connected to the grid for charging, greatly increases the possible benefits for both the DSO and end-users. Through the investigation of different possible designs for the energy service, it is recommended that the demand side management of end-users is placed in the hands of an electricity supplier responsible for balancing the consumption of the end-users. A procurement-procedure is deemed problematicfollowing the risk for unproportional use of resources and time. As a result of this, the energy service should not be traded directly between DSOs and electricity suppliers. Instead, it is proposed that the DSO develops a time-differentiated tariff, after which the electricity supplier can adapt the end-users’ consumption. Since the results indicate that controlling the end-users consumption on just a few occasions is sufficient to yield large benefits for the DSO, a grid-tariff with critical peak pricing is recommended. This tariff employs a high price for shorter periods of time when the grid load is peaking and a rebated price during all other occasions. This opens up for controlling the use during the other days according to the spot market price. As the electricity supplier grants the end-user lowered costs for both the electricity grid and trading, they have the opportunity to apply a charge for the service. Both the DSO, end-user and electricity supplier is presumed to improve their profitability with this design. When implementing the energy service, a couple of aspects are important to shed light on. The grid-tariff of the end-user and the tariff for the feeding grid needs to be synchronized with each other, to stimulate the same type of load shifts. It should also be noted that the possible gain from the incentives will decrease as demand side management-measures is taken since the reference-level from which a comparison is made improves. Another interesting aspect is that the regulation stipulates that only a certain percentage of the cost reductions will result in incentives, thus limiting the amount of profitable measures. Since the costs and revenues between the actors in the transmission system (low and medium voltage DSOs and the TSO) are interdependent, the revenue loss for the medium voltage DSO resulting from the cost reduction for the low voltage DSO, can result in a recoil effect. Lastly, a widespread introduction of control equipment to end-users can facilitate other uses for the demand-side flexibility.<br>Belastningen i elnätet varierar under dagen och mellan olika säsonger. Att som nätägare ha en ojämn belastning i sitt nät leder till ökade nätförluster och onödigt höga kostnader för att abonnera effekt från det överliggande nätet. Effektiviseringar i nätet och ett jämnare effektuttag av användarna kan därmed leda till att en nätägare kan erhålla minskade kostnader för abonnerad effekt från överliggande nät och nätförluster, men innebär också en sänkt intäktsram för nätägaren. Vid implementering av EU:s energieffektiviseringsdirektiv har Energimarknadsinspektionen tagit fram två ekonomiska incitament som möjliggör för nätägare att dra nytta av kostnadsminskningar för nätförluster och överliggande nät. Av denna anledning ser elhandelsbolagen Storuman Energi och Affärsverken Energi möjligheter att, med hjälp av efterfrågeflexibilitet hos framförallt eluppvärmda hushåll, erbjuda en laststyrningstjänst till lokalnätsnätägare. Syftet med denna studie är därmed att demonstrera hur en tjänst som denna kan värdesättas av aktörerna på den svenska elmarknaden. Frågan behandlas genom att undersöka vilka värden efterfrågeflexibilitet kan ge upphov till, exempelvis hur slutanvändares elkostnader och nätägares ekonomiska incitament påverkas av efterfrågeflexibilitet. En inventering har gjorts av efterfrågeflexibilitetens värde för elhandlare, nätägare och slutanvändare. För nätägare bedöms de huvudsakliga värdena finnas kring de nya ekonomiska incitamenten, vars potential beror på nätets förutsättningar och regionnätstariffen. Det finns också nyttor kopplade till driftsäkerhet och leveranskvalitet. Elhandlare kan dra nytta av en lägre risk för obalans genom att de får bättre uppfattning om sina kunders användningsmönster, samt möjligheten att även debitera för utförd laststyrningstjänst. För slutanvändare har värdena delats upp i kostnadsminskningar och systemnyttor. Båda dessa anses kunna kompensera för de krav på ersättning som slutanvändare har för att bidra med sin flexibilitet. Genom anpassning efter exempelvis spotpris eller en nättariff kan lägre kostnader för elhandel respektive nät erhållas. Vad gäller systemnyttor kan följder som att exempelvis främja intermittent förnybar elproduktion, underlätta införande av en eldriven fordonsflotta samt att minska beroendet av dyra fossileldade produktionsslag ses som positiva. Å andra sidan bedöms en upplevd risk för försämrad värmekomfort och datasekretess samt minskad kontroll över sin användning spela in som negativa värden. Om tjänsten kan paketeras tillsammans med utrustning som även ger andra mervärden, exempelvis möjliggör en ökad värmekomfort, kan slutanvändares ersättningskrav minska. För att utreda vilken konkret påverkan efterfrågeflexibilitet kan ha på slutanvändares elkostnader och nätägares ekonomiska incitament görs en undersökning i Karlskronas lokalnät. Där appliceras den potential för efterfrågeflexibilitet som tidigare studier visat på. Det konstateras att incitamentet för jämnare nätbelastning visar betydligt större potential än det för minskade nätförluster samt att en stor del av incitamenten går att erhålla genom att styra endast ett fåtal tillfällen varje år. Vidare pekar resultatet på att slutanvändares kostnadsminskningar kan nå upp i nivåer som motsvarar deras ersättningskrav. Ett framtidsscenario med fler elfordon ger mycket större ekonomisk potential för både nätägare och slutanvändare. Efter att ha utrett olika alternativa utformningar för energitjänsten föreslås att passiv efterfrågeflexibilitet tillämpas genom att laststyrning av slutanvändare sker av en elhandlande aggregator med balansansvar. Ett upphandlingsförfarande bedöms medföra risk för stor resurs- och tidsåtgång, varför handel av tjänsten inte bör äga rum mellan elhandlare och nätägare. Men för att elhandlare ändå ska kunna ta del av värdet från de ekonomiska incitamenten föreslås att nätägaren tar fram en tidsdifferentierad nättariff, vilken elhandlaren kan laststyra slutanvändare efter. Då resultatet pekar på att styrning under endast ett fåtal tillfällen är erforderligt kan en nättariff av typen spetspristariff tillämpas, där kostnaden för effektuttag kraftigt stiger när belastningen är hög i nätet. Då möjliggörs styrning efter exempelvis spotpris de tillfällen som inte är nödvändiga att styra med hänsyn till nätet, eftersom kostnaden för effektuttag då är låg. Genom att elhandlare på så sätt kan erbjuda slutanvändare lägre kostnader för både nät och elhandel har de möjlighet att debitera slutanvändare en avgift för utförd tjänst. Med denna utformning anses både nätägare, elhandlare och slutanvändare kunna nå en ökad lönsamhet. Vid införandet av energitjänsten är ett antal aspekter viktiga att belysa. Slutanvändares nättariff och lokalnätets tariff för överliggande nät spelar en viktig roll då de behöver stimulera till att samma styrning utförs, exempelvis om det är fördelaktigt att styrning sker ofta eller mer sällan. Då incitamentens nivå bestäms utifrån en referensperiod kommer möjlig avkastning att avta i takt med att förbättringar görs. I nätregleringen är det fastställt att bara en viss del av kostnadsbesparingarna erhålls i form av de ekonomiska incitamenten, vilket innebär att vilka åtgärder som är lönsamma begränsas. Genom att kostnader och intäkter är tätt sammankopplade mellan aktörerna i elnätet (lokal-, region- och stamnät) kan regionnätets intäktsbortfall till följd av lokalnätets lägre kostnader, ge upphov till rekyleffekter. Att storskaligt installera styrutrustning hos slutanvändare kan också möjliggöra andra användningsområden, med andra ord skapas det en plattform för efterfrågeflexibilitet.

Abstract This thesis includes three studies on household preferences for energy goods and services. The first study examines determinants of households’ heating system choices using a choice experiment. The choice sets include six main heating alternatives (district heating, ground heat pump, exhaust air heat pump, solid wood boiler, wood pellet boiler, and electric storage heating) that are described by five attributes (supplementary heating systems, investment costs, operating costs, comfort of use and environmental friendliness). The results imply that hybrid heating appears to be accepted among households. The results also reveal differing preferences for the main heating alternatives and show that they are affected by demographic characteristics. The studied attributes also play a significant role when heating systems are being chosen. The second study is a methodological one that extends the analysis of the first study. The second study explores the effect of perceived choice complexity on the randomness of choices in choice experiments. The study investigates how different self-evaluated factors of choice complexity affect mean scale and scale variance. The findings suggest that perceived choice complexity has a systematic impact on the parameters of econometric models of choice. However, differences exist between alternative self-evaluated complexity-related covariates. The results indicate that individuals who report that answering the choice tasks is more difficult have less deterministic choices. Perceptions of the realism of home heating choice options also affect scale and scale variance. The third study utilizes the choice experiment to analyze households’ willingness to participate in demand side flexibility. The study examines whether individuals are willing to time their electricity usage and heating; whether they are interested in dynamic pricing contracts such as real-time pricing, two-rate tariffs, or power-based tariffs; and how emissions reductions affect their choices. The results indicate that households’ sensitivity to restrictions in electricity usage is much stronger than their sensitivity to restrictions in heating. Households also require compensation to choose real-time pricing over fixed fees. The findings suggest that room may exist for new dynamic electricity distribution contracts, such as power-based tariffs, in the market. Other value-creating elements besides monetary compensation also exist that could incentivize households to offer demand side flexibility because households value power system level reductions in CO2 emissions<br>Tiivistelmä Tämä väitöskirja koostuu kolmesta tutkimuksesta, joissa tarkastellaan kotitalouksien preferenssejä energiahyödykkeitä ja -palveluita kohtaan. Ensimmäinen tutkimus keskittyy kotitalouksien lämmitysjärjestelmävalintoihin ja niitä määrittäviin tekijöihin. Tämä tutkimus on tehty valintakoemenetelmällä, jonka valintatilanteet sisältävät kuusi eri päälämmitysjärjestelmävaihtoehtoa (kaukolämpö, maalämpöpumppu, puulämmitys, pellettilämmitys, varaava sähkölämmitys ja poistoilmalämpöpumppu). Päälämmitysjärjestelmiä kuvataan viiden ominaisuuden avulla, jotka ovat tukilämmitysjärjestelmä, investointikustannukset, käyttökustannukset, käyttömukavuus ja ympäristöystävällisyys. Tulosten mukaan kotitalouksien preferenssit päälämmitysjärjestelmävaihtoehtoja kohtaan ovat vaihtelevia. Valintaan vaikuttavat sekä tarkastellut ominaisuudet että kotitalouden demografiset tekijät. Tulokset myös paljastavat, että kotitaloudet suhtautuvat myönteisesti hybridilämmitykseen. Toinen tutkimus on menetelmällinen, missä hyödynnetään ensimmäisen tutkimuksen aineistoa. Tämä tutkimus keskittyy yksilöiden kokeman vastaamisen vaikeuden vaikutuksiin valintakoemenetelmässä. Vastaamisen epätarkkuus tunnistetaan valintakoemenetelmässä skaalan ja skaalavarianssin avulla. Tutkimus tarkastelee, kuinka itsearvioidut vastaamisen vaikeutta mittaavat tekijät vaikuttavat keskimääräiseen skaalaan ja skaalavarianssiin valintojen ekonometrisissa malleissa. Tulosten mukaan koettu vastaamisen vaikeus vaikuttaa systemaattisesti ekonometrisen valintamallin parametreihin. Vastaamisen vaikeutta mittaavien tekijöiden välillä on kuitenkin eroja. Tuloksien perusteella vastaajat, jotka kokevat valintatilanteisiin vastaamisen keskimääräistä vaikeampana, tekevät satunnaisempia valintoja. Myös valintatilanteiden koettu realistisuus vaikuttaa skaalaan ja skaalavarianssiin. Kolmannessa tutkimuksessa arvioidaan kotitalouksien halukkuutta osallistua energian kysyntäjoustoon valintakoemenetelmällä. Tämä tutkimus selvittää ovatko kotitaloudet halukkaitta siirtämään sähkönkulutusta ja lämmitystä, ja kuinka kiinnostuneita he ovat dynaamisista sähkön hinnoittelusopimuksista kuten pörssisähkösopimuksesta, yösähkösopimuksesta tai tehoperusteisesta sopimuksesta. Lisäksi tutkitaan vaikuttavatko järjestelmätason päästövähennykset kotitalouksien valintoihin. Tulosten perusteella kotitaloudet suhtautuvat sähkönkulutuksen rajoituksiin selvästi negatiivisemmin kuin lämmityksen rajoituksiin. Kotitaloudet myös vaativat rahallista korvausta valitakseen pörssisähkösopimuksen kiinteähintaisen sopimuksen sijaan. Tulosten mukaan markkinoilla voisi olla tilaa uudenlaisille sopimustyypeille, kuten tehoperusteiselle vaihtoehdolle. Tulokset osoittavat, että kotitaloudet arvostavat järjestelmätason hiilidioksidipäästövähennyksiä. Täten rahallisen korvauksen lisäksi on olemassa myös muita arvoa luovia tekijöitä lisätä kotitalouksien osallistumista kysyntäjoustoon

In this thesis, we consider improving supply chain and service systems through demand-side management. In Chapters 1 and 2, we focus on a new notion of flexibility that has emerged in e-commerce called consumer flexibility. Motivated by the fact that some customers may willingly provide flexibility on which product or service they receive in exchange for a reward, firms can design flexible options to leverage this consumer flexibility for significant benefit in their operations. In Chapter 1, we consider the context of online retailing where consumer flexibility can be realized through opaque selling, where some specific attributes of the products are not revealed to the customer until after purchase. In Chapter 2, we focus on the context of online booking systems for scheduled services where consumer flexibility can be realized through large time windows. The main findings are on the power of limited flexibility using simple flexible options with just a small fraction of customers willing to be flexible. In Chapter 3, we study the issue of congested elevator queuing systems due to the requirement of social distancing during a pandemic. We propose simple interventions for safely managing the elevator queues, which require no programming of the elevator system and only manage passenger behaviors. The key idea is to explicitly or implicitly group passengers going to the same or nearby floor into the same elevator as much as possible. Simulations and stability analysis show that our proposed interventions significantly reduce queue length and wait time.

Durch den Ausbau an Wind- und PV-Anlagen in Deutschland wird der Flexibilitätsbedarf im Stromsystem steigen. Der Flexibilitätsbedarf kann zum einen durch verschiedene Technologien, z.B. Speicher oder Netze, und zum anderen durch die Stromnachfrage bereitgestellt werden. Eine gezielte Steuerung der Stromnachfrage wird als Demand Side Management (DSM) bezeichnet. Der zunehmend wetterabhängigen und fluktuierenden Stromerzeugung in Deutschland steht jedoch eine bis heute weitgehend unelastische Nachfrage gegenüber. In der Literatur sind verschiedene Arbeiten zu finden, die das Potential zur Lastabschaltung und verschiebung in Deutschland untersuchen. Hierbei liegt der Fokus auf absoluten Werten. Saisonale oder tageszeitliche Unterschiede bleiben dabei häufig unberücksichtigt. Die vorliegende Dissertation greift an dieser Stelle an und untersucht das Potential ausgewählter DSM-Anwendungen in stündlicher Auflösung. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass das verfügbare Potential starken saisonalen und tageszeitlichen Schwankungen unterliegt. Dementsprechend wird das DSM-Potential überschätzt, wenn nur absolute Werte betrachtet werden. Darüber hinaus zeigt die Autorin, welche Entwicklungen in den nächsten Jahren hinsichtlich der Verfügbarkeit des DSM-Potentials zu erwarten sind. Basierend auf der Potentialermittlung wird in der Dissertation die Rolle von DSM in einem EE-geprägten Stromsystem modellbasiert untersucht. Hierfür wird das lineare Optimierungsmodell ELTRAMOD, das den deutschen und europäischen Strommarkt abbildet, weiterentwickelt. Anhand verschiedener Szenarien wird zum einen der Beitrag von DSM zur Systemintegration von erneuerbaren Energien in Deutschland und zum anderen die Wechselwirkungen mit anderen Flexibilitätsoptionen (z.B. Speicher) untersucht. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die DSM-Kategorien Lastabschaltung und verschiebung nur kurzzeitig auftretende Schwankungen der Einspeisung aus erneuerbaren Energien ausgleichen können. Zum Ausgleich großer Überschussmengen aus erneuerbaren Energien sind hingegen Power-to-X-Technologien, z.B. Power-to-Heat, besser geeignet.