Academic literature on the topic 'Relative response factor'

The research aims to analyse the concept of the 'holiday home' in Italy, a phenomenon that is not very well known and not given sufficient visibility in the tourism sector. The objective is to grasp the role and the degree of response that the holiday homes can offer in order to consolidate a genuinely social and sustainable tourism, which is the specific feature of the Associazione di Promozione Sociale Santa Lucia. The holiday homes represent an efficacious response to the emerging motivations for travel and a new sensitivity towards social and sustainable tourism. The growing opportunities for this sector call for reflection on the mission and future positioning of the holiday homes within the tourist reception panorama, with the deriving choices relating to: the offer, consisting of values more than of services; the functions fulfilled, intimately bound up with the demands of the individual and the territory; the quality of the service, which is not generic but linked to the functions and can be measured in line with objective and subjective parameters. Strategic awareness, managerial capacity and elevated professionalism at all levels are the factors of legitimisation and success of this original reception formula.

Primary focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS) causes nephrotic syndrome and by definition is not caused by any of the known causes of podocyte toxicity or focal segmental sclerosis such as viral infections or toxins. A number of genetic causes of FSGS are commonly diagnosed in early childhood. Other causes of segmental scarring need to be distinguished. Genotypes in APOL1 of African origin are associated with higher incidence of FSGS and poorer responses to treatment. Cellular and collapsing FSGS are variants of FSGS in which there is overt acute podocytopathy and they have a relatively poor prognosis. A glomerular tip lesion is thought to have a slightly better prognosis than other types. Some cases of primary FSGS respond to high-dose corticosteroids, sometimes only after prolonged therapy. Response to steroids is a good prognostic sign, and without a response, progressive loss of renal function is likely. A circulating factor is implicated by the observation that proteinuria can recur in a donor kidney within hours of transplant. Plasma exchange appears to remove this factor but it is not conclusively identified.

Coffin-Lowry syndrome (CLS) is a relatively rare (1:50,000-100,000 incidence) sex-linked neurodevelopmental disorder that includes severe intellectual disability, dysmorphic features including facial and digital abnormalities, growth retardation, and skeletal changes. Most cases are sporadic with only 20% to 30% of cases having an additional family member. CLS is caused by variable loss of function mutations in the RPS6KA3 gene that maps to Xp22.2 and codes for the hRSK2 S6 kinase that phosphorylates the transcription factor CREB (cAMP response element binding protein) as well as other nuclear transcription factors. Phosphorylated CREB (pCREB) plays a major role in memory formation in fruit flies and mammals by activating specific genes through epigenetic histone acetylation.

The pathogenesis of fungal disease involves an interplay between fungal virulence factors and host immune responses. Most fungal pathogens are opportunists that preferentially invade hosts with immune defects, but the fact that relative pathogenicity varies between fungal species (and even between different strains within a species) is evidence that fungi have evolved multiple, different molecular virulence factors. Experiments in which genes encoding putative virulence attributes are specifically disrupted and the resulting mutants are tested for virulence in a range of vertebrate and invertebrate hosts have identified or confirmed many gene products as significant for the pathogenesis of various types of fungal disease. These include factors determining fungal shape in vivo, biofilm formation, and a plethora of surface components, including adhesins and hydrolytic enzymes. This chapter provides an overview of fungal virulence attributes.

In this chapter the authors return to aggregate data to examine how the state minimum wage has responded to a growing awareness of inequality and other state political factors. The minimum wage was initially pursued by the states a number of years before the federal government adopted a minimum wage in the 1930s. However, the minimum wage law is still jointly controlled by the states and the federal government, allowing us to directly examine how federal inaction in raising the minimum wage spurs state minimum wage increases. The results show that federal inaction, a public awareness of growing inequality, and state government liberalism are significant predictors of increases in state minimum wages. The minimum wage is more likely to be increased in states with the initiative, even sometimes in states that are usually considered to be relatively conservative.

This book chapter first outlines the facts in relation to energy and poverty globally, with a particular emphasis on the sub-Saharan Africa region. Secondly, the impact of gender on how energy poverty is experienced is explained. Then it considers the growing recognition in international, regional, and national initiatives of the link between access to modern energy services, women, and poverty and what legal and policy strategies have been adopted in response. Finally, the chapter provides some thoughts on possible future responses to improving the prevailing situation and the obstacles that must be surmounted in the achievement of a gender aware approach to energy access.

This chapter examines whether the ECOWAS Community Court of Justice (ECCJ or Court), as an international court operating in the West African region with its peculiar sociopolitical and economic context, enjoys any form or degree of actual authority in any of its main functions. The ECCJ’s two contrasting epochs represent a variation in the authority of the Court. Whereas under its 1991 Protocol, the Court enjoyed limited de jure authority with little potential for growing its de facto authority, the 2005 Supplementary Protocol introduced expansions that increased the potential for enhanced de facto authority. Ultimately, the Court’s authority varies significantly both in terms of areas of competence, as among different court-users and in relation to wider communities in its State Parties. Arguably, these variations indicate that different factors influence the responses that the Court attracts from different user-groups.

A number of selection schemes (especially in plant breeding) are based on using family information. Individuals may be chosen based on the mean of their families (among-family selection), on their standing within their family (either strict within-family selection or family-deviations selection), or on some weighted combination of these two factors (family index selection). This chapter reviews the general theory of response in such settings and examines the relative effectiveness of a number of different family-based selection decisions.

AbstractThe exchangeable fraction of soil potassium (K) has been viewed as the most important source of plant-available K, with other sources playing smaller roles that do not influence the predictive value of a soil test. Thus, as K mass balance changes, the soil test should change correspondingly to be associated with greater or reduced plant availability. However, soil test changes and the availability of K to plants are influenced by many other factors. This chapter reviews research on soil test K changes and the relation to crop uptake and yield. A mass-balance relationship is rarely achieved from the measurement of exchangeable K because of the potential for buffering of K removal from structural K in feldspars and from interlayer K in primary and secondary layer silicates. Similarly, surplus K additions can be fixed in interlayer positions in secondary layer silicates, or potentially sequestered in sparingly soluble neoformed secondary minerals, neither of which is measured as exchangeable K. In addition, soil moisture, temporal differences in exchangeable K with K uptake by crops, K leaching from residues, clay type, organic matter contribution to the soil CEC, and type of K amendment confound attempts to relate K additions and losses with an exchangeable K soil test. Research is needed to create regionally specific K soil test procedures that can predict crop response for a subset of clays and K-bearing minerals within specific cropping systems.

Two pioneering studies that examined cell phone billing records of people who had been in automobile crashes estimated that cell phone “use” while driving elevated crash risk by a factor of four relative to driving without cell phone use, a substantial increase. Cell phone “use” in these pioneering studies refers solely to cell phone conversation, because billing records contain no information about the visual-manual aspects of cell phone use. Recent research suggests that these pioneering studies overestimated the relative risk of cell phone conversation by a factor of seven due to two major biases. After adjustment for these biases, cell phone conversation does not increase crash risk beyond that of driving without a cell phone conversation, and may, in fact, reduce crash risk. The main reasons are driver self-regulation and reduced drowsiness, which fully compensate for the slight delays in brake response times caused by cell phone conversation.

Our responses to sound and light are crucial. We sense them over intensity ranges of at least one million to one. Our brain makes compromises to deal with so much information. The strategy is to just recognize relative signal levels (e.g. to if one signal is twice that of another). In terms of actual intensity, a doubling in sound (or brightness of light) means it has increased by a factor of ten. This logarithmic counting system means a detailed range of one to a million has compressed to just six intensity doublings (ditto for storm and earthquake intensity scales). The ear response creates many unexpected distortions. Our hearing changes with age, and quite dramatically falls when exposed to prolonged high-volume sounds, including exposure to excessively loud music. This is a negative side of electronic amplification and broadcasting, and for headphones or hearing aids there are many distortions.

Chapter seven examines the effects of the Great Recession on U.S. children. It opens with a discussion of various methods for measuring national well-being. Each measure, from Gross Domestic Product and the Global Competitiveness Index to the Human Development Index, the GINI Index of inequality, reflects different priorities. In measuring changes in child well-being, poverty is a key factor. The author reviews leading methods for measuring child poverty, including absolute versus relative benchmarks, market child poverty versus poverty after government benefits, the poverty gap between children and other groups, and boundaries between poverty and extreme poverty. In measuring changes in child well-being, in addition to poverty, researchers study food insecurity, housing instability, health-care gaps, and child maltreatment. In each category, the author uses a comparative lens to explore the long term effects of recession and the national response in the U.S. and Europe. At the macro level, national “politics”—defined as the authoritative allocation of values and distribution of rewards in wealth, power, and status—shaped the government response. The author documents the U.S. government’s failure to address rising levels of child poverty, malnutrition, homelessness, infant and maternal mortality, and child maltreatment associated with the recession.

<em>Abstract.</em>—Although many hydroelectric dams have fishways for upstream passage of migratory fish, passage delays often occur at these sites. Migrational delay may affect fish detrimentally in several ways, including depletion of energy reserves, suboptimal arrival timing at spawning sites, and prolonged exposure to hazardous conditions at the face of dams. We applied time-to-event analyses to passage times of radio-tagged adult Chinook salmon <em>Oncorhynchus tshawytscha </em>at four dams on the lower Columbia River, where many fish require several days to pass each dam. The analysis allowed us to determine instantaneous passage rates in response to fluctuating river conditions. By relating variability in passage rate to the predictor variables river temperature, river flow, and fish size, we determined the relative contribution of various factors to the passage time of migrating fish. We fit the model by maximizing the likelihood function that incorporated information from individuals rather than aggregated groups of fish. We used Akaike’s Information Criterion to distinguish among several competing models, each of which used a different predictor variable. We found that daytime passage rates were significantly greater than nighttime passage rates. Also, the influence of river flow, river temperature, and fish length on passage rates varied at the four dams. However, when a factor had a significant influence on passage time, the direction of the relationship was consistent across dams: river flow and fish length were positively related to passage time (greater values led to longer passage time), and river temperature was negatively related. This method is easily adaptable to study passage time of any fish population facing a broad range of obstacles to migration, whether natural or man-made.

Laser cladding (LC) is a multi-variable coating process which consists of process multiple inputs and associated bead geometry outputs. Fabrication of a desired clad bead geometry configuration is expensive, as it involves investment of specialized raw materials, specialty equipment, and time resources. Hence, it is vital to determine factors/inputs that affect the overall physical bead geometry parameters (response variables), and the nature of the responses. The objective of this research is to identify the extent of the contribution of each factor and impact of their interactions on the output which is essential in developing effective predictive models. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) and sensitivity analysis methodologies are studied in this research to determine the most significant process factors that relate to the shape parameters for a typical laser cladding production process scenario. A set of statistical based summaries for all response variables are presented. This includes contour and surface plots to illustrate the difference in effects for a response variable by a single process parameter as compared to two or more interacting process parameters. Finally, an optimization solver toolbox is applied to determine single and multiple objective optimization results that can be obtained for various desired bead geometries.

Abstract The paper addresses non-Gaussian stationary response of linear single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) systems subject to a periodic excitation with correlated random amplitude and phase disturbances which are modeled as correlated Gaussian white noise processes. Correlation between amplitude and phase modulation is specified by the cross-correlation coefficient. Numerical results for the second and fourth moment responses are presented. The probability density function of the response is calculated based on the cumulant-neglect closure method. Non-Gaussianity of the response is discussed in terms of the excess factor. The results show that the moment responses generally increase with larger random amplitude disturbance and decrease with larger random phase modulation. The cross-correlation between amplitude and phase disturbances tend to reduce the system moment response. Large relative detuning results in smaller system moment responses. The response may become Gaussian in the sense of up to the fourth moment for sufficiently large relative detuning or random phase disturbances.

Abstract It is very important to estimate the residual life of structures by analysing a strong response quantitatively, because it is necessary to judge whether they can be used or not in the future, after they are damaged by earthquakes. During a strong earthquake, the jerk response of a structure with bilinear restoring force has discontinuity, just when the restoring force changes rapidly from the elastic region to the plastic region. Authors have tried to detect the discontinuity in the jerk by using wavelet analysis and reported a successful paper (Sone, et al., 1994). The final goal of study is to estimate the low cycle fatigue of structure by analysing the observed records in a structure. For this object, the relationship between ductility factor; that is the ratio of peak relative displacement and yield relative displacement, and the number of discontinuity detection is needed. In this paper, the method is proposed to estimate the ductility factor of structure by the wavelet analysis of absolute acceleration response. Wavelet has the ability to detect discontinuity in acceleration response record; furthermore, it is found in this study that the wavelet coefficient is proportional to the velocity at the yield point. Besides, the ductility factor is estimated from the velocity at yield point by using the energy balance between kinetic energy at the yield point and strain energy from the yield point to the maximum relative displacement. Thus, using these relationships, the ductility factor is estimated from wavelet coefficient obtained by wavelet analysis of acceleration response. The applicability of this method is verified through some simulations.

Hypertension is a key risk factor for many adverse cardiovascular events. The sustained increase in pressure causes arterial remodeling, which results in long-term changes in the geometrical dimensions and mechanical properties of the vascular tissue. The remodeling response in experimental animal models of hypertension is often described according to the structurally determined change in lumen diameter. Depending on whether the process resulted in a decrease or increase in the diameter, remodeling is termed inward or outward, while depending on the increase, no change, or decrease in the amount of material, remodeling is hypertrophic, eutrophic, or hypotrophic [1]. Due to the multi-factorial and complex nature of remodeling, it is exceedingly difficult to evaluate the relative importance of any one factor in isolation. Predictive mathematical models based on continuum mechanics are powerful tools for studying the mechanical and remodeling response of blood vessels. So far, most theoretical studies addressed adaptive remodeling in response to sustained hypertension. An adaptive response manifests as preservation of the normotensive deformed diameter, change in residual strains and axial stretch ratio, and thickening of the arterial wall, such that the tensile wall stress and flow-induced shear stress remain at baseline values. Maladaptive remodeling could result from a variety of dysfunctional biological processes, and is characterized by the incomplete restoration of the baseline mechanical environment. This study is devoted to a theoretical simulation of some modes of maladaptive remodeling and aims to evaluate the relative importance of certain geometrical and mechanical factors in the remodeling response to hypertension.

Recently, experimental data from vortex induced vibrations (VIV) of long flexible cylinders have revealed the existence of (i) higher harmonic stress components, and (ii) chaotic response characteristics, in addition to the well-known first harmonic responses. To assess the effect of these phenomena on fatigue damage of long flexible structures, we generate alternative stress time series, with and then without higher harmonic components; as well as time series, which have either sharply peaked power spectral densities (PSD), or broad-banded PSDs, characteristic of chaotic response. We show that for stresses containing higher harmonics, the predicted fatigue damage to the riser can increase by a factor of 2.5 relative to the damage caused by stresses containing only the first harmonic and having equivalent total power. Likewise, for stresses with a significantly spread PSD, an indicator of chaotic response, the damage to the riser is increased by a factor of 1.8, relative to a stress with narrow-band PSD and the same total power. Thus, it is found that the increase in fatigue damage caused by chaotic response can be as significant as that caused by the stress higher harmonic components.

Static and dynamic stress analyses of Mark III insulation system for LNG containment considering sloshing impact pressures have been carried out. Various time and spatial characteristics of the loading was considered. A direct implicit time integration method was used for the dynamic analysis. Two structural models were applied, one in which the steel structure was modeled with a realistic flexibility and one in which the insulation was supported on a rigid foundation. The main focus was on the vertical stresses in the lower fiber of R-PUF, bottom plywood and mastic ropes. It was found that the static stress level of the lower part of the Mark III system based on the rigid steel plate support differed from one that based on the flexible steel plate support. The static stress level of the lower part of the Mark III system supported by a flexible steel structure varied and was higher above the stiffeners and less over the middle part of the plate. The largest natural period is about 1.5–8 milliseconds and, based upon the experimental results, the sloshing pressure is approximated by triangular function in time, with a characteristic duration of a few milliseconds. The effects of sloshing impact rise time and load patch on the maximum dynamic stress level of the lower part of the Mark III system based on the rigid and flexible steel plate support have been investigated. The results are presented in the form of the dynamic amplification factor. For impulse type sloshing pressures relative to the steel plate, the steel plate behaves as a rigid support, resulting in vertical responses that exhibit a limited variation over the area.

Reported studies dealing with the clinical use of DDAVP in mild and moderate hemophilia A patients show a very large between-patient variability for the maximum increase of VIII:C after the drug given intravenously (i.v.) or subcutaneously (s.c.). By measuring DDAVP plasma levels with a sensitive and specific RIA method, we elected to evaluate whether or not between-patient response variability was related to the variability of DDAVP levels achieved in their plasma. To this purpose 14 moderate or mild hemophilic volunteers (baseline VIII : C 4 to 31 U/dL) were randomly given 0.3 pg/Kg of i.v. or s.c. DDAVP with a between-treatment interval of 15 - 30 days. Plasma DDAVP pharmacokinetics in relation to the routes of administration are shown in the table.Pack levels (Cmax) were higher after i.v. DDAVP (p < 0.02). Time to peak levels (tmax) was shorter for i.v. DDAVP (p < 0.001). There was no difference between i.v. and s.c. DDAVP for plasma time curve (AUC) and half-life (t½).The bioavailability of the s.c. route relative to the i.v. route was 85 ° 32%. Of further interest, was the greater variability of the i.v. pharmacokinetics compared to the s.c. data. These differences were reflected in the VIII:C response. Maximum VIII:C increase over baseline levels was 3.2 ° 2.4 fold (i.v.) and 3.2 ° 1.3 fold (s.c.) (n.s.).Thus the i.v. route gave a marginally greater response but the effect was more variable than the s.c. route. Finally, no significant correlation was found between the VIII:C response and plasma DDAVP levels for either route of administration (i.v. route r = 0.03, s.c. route r = 0.23).These findings establish the subcutaneous route to be bioequivalent in effect to the intravenous route with less variation. This study also demonstrates that the VIII:C response to DDAVP is neither a function of the rate of absorption of the corrpound into the body nor the magnitude of the plasma concentration.

This paper focuses on the determination and study of the maximum amplification of the steady state forced response of bladed disks due to mistuning. A general multi-degree-of-freedom dynamic model is adopted for each blade/disk sector and optimization techniques are used to maximize a weighted quadratic norm of the response of the degrees-of-freedom of blade 1 (overall response of blade 1). First, a mathematical optimization effort is conducted in which the resonant mistuned mode shape(s) (1 for engine orders 0 and N/2 where N is the number of blades, 2 otherwise) is selected to maximize the overall response of blade 1. The form of these optimum mode shapes is derived for all weighting matrices. The specific mode shapes are also derived for two particular weights the first one of which depends on the tuned bladed disk mass matrix and for which the overall response is akin to the kinetic energy. A closed form solution is also derived when the analysis focuses solely on the response of a specific degree-of-freedom or a specific stress component. In these cases, the ratio of the corresponding overall response to its tuned counterpart, i.e. the amplification factor, is found to be the product of two terms. The first one is an amplification obtained by tuned variations of the blade properties/mode shapes and thus is referred to as the modal amplification factor. The second term is an amplification obtained by proper mistuning. Interestingly, the modal amplification factor may take on very large values while a representative value of the largest mistuned factor is often the Whitehead limit of (1+N)/2 as in the single-degree-of-freedom per blade model. The above formulation and results are readily extended to the optimization of the blade alone response (as opposed to blade and disk sector). Numerical optimization efforts were also undertaken on both a two-degree-of-freedom per blade disk model and a 24-blade blisk reduced order model. The results of these computational efforts not only confirm the assumptions and findings of the theoretical developments but also demonstrate that substantially larger amplification factors can be obtained with a general natural frequency mistuning as opposed to Young’s modulus mistuning. Finally, an amplification due to mistuning (no tuned amplification) slightly larger than the Whitehead limit was obtained with relative variations in blade alone frequencies less than 0.5%.

Angiogenesis is the process of forming new blood vessels that originate from pre-existing vessels. In early angiogenesis stages, endothelial cells (ECs) migrate from the lumen of developed blood vessels into the surrounding extracellular matrix (ECM). Through the coordinated actions of migration and proliferation, these ECs organize into tubular capillary-like structures called sprouts. In this study, 3D EC sprout formation was examined using a microfluidic device that enabled the separate and simultaneous tuning of biomechanical and biochemical stimuli (Fig. 1). While previous investigations have been performed on each of these factors individually1, 2, more recent studies have identified a critical interplay between the simultaneous effects of these two factors3. For example, we previously studied 2D EC chemotaxis in response to vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) gradients in the absence of biomechanical stimulation.4 In developing a model that enables precise specification of biochemical and biomechanical cues, we utilized a protocol that enables ECs to undergo a transition from the 2D to 3D culture environment mimicking angiogenic sprouting. Here we quantified the relative importance and combined consequences of discrete changes in matrix density, growth factor concentration, and growth factor gradient steepness during the stages of early sprout initiation, sprout elongation, sprout navigation, and lumen formation.

Fuel rod fretting wear is due to complex combinations of factors. Excitation of the fuel rod and motion relative to its supports can be caused by coolant flow and mechanical forces. The amplitude of response for a given set of flow and mechanical forces is dependent on the fuel rod and its support system. The fuel rod mass and stiffness and location of supports along its length dictate the mode shapes and natural frequencies. The contact geometry between the support system and fuel rod is also an important factor. The two primary areas covered in this paper are 1) the types of flow conditions that may exist in a reactor core and how they would result in excitation of the fuel rod and 2) how the relative motion of the rod to its supports can result in fretting wear. Numerous testing techniques, ranging from microscopic, to single grid cell tests, to high temperature and flow full scale multiple fuel assembly tests, are discussed.

Coastal foredunes are topographically high features that can reduce vulnerability to storm-related flooding hazards. While the dominant aeolian, hydrodynamic, and ecological processes leading to dune growth and erosion are fairly well-understood, predictive capabilities of spatial variations in dune evolution on management and engineering timescales (days to years) remain relatively poor. In this work, monthly high-resolution terrestrial lidar scans were used to quantify topographic and vegetation changes over a 2.5 year period along a micro-tidal intermediate beach and dune. Three-dimensional topographic changes to the coastal landscape were used to investigate the relative importance of environmental, ecological, and morphological factors in controlling spatial and temporal variability in foredune growth patterns at two 50 m alongshore stretches of coast. Despite being separated by only 700 m in the alongshore, the two sites evolved differently over the study period. The northern dune retreated landward and lost volume, whereas the southern dune prograded and vertically accreted. The largest differences in dune response between the two sections of dunes occurred during the fall storm season, when each of the systems’ geomorphic and ecological properties modulated dune growth patterns. These findings highlight the complex eco-morphodynamic feedback controlling dune dynamics across a range of spatial scales.

The U.S. national parks have experienced significant climate-change impacts and rapid, on-going changes are expected to continue. Despite the significant climate-change vulnerabilities facing parks, relatively few parks have conducted comprehensive climate-change vulnerability assessments, defined as assessments that synthesize vulnerability information from a wide range of sources, identify key climate-change impacts, and prioritize vulnerable park resources (Michalak et al. In review). In recognition that funding and planning capacity is limited, this project was initiated to identify geographies, parks, and issues that are high priorities for conducting climate-change vulnerability assessments (CCVA) and strategies to efficiently address the need for CCVAs across all U.S. National Park Service (NPS) park units (hereafter “parks”) and all resources. To help identify priority geographies and issues, we quantitatively assessed the relative magnitude of vulnerability factors potentially affecting park resources and values. We identified multiple vulnerability factors (e.g., temperature change, wildfire potential, number of at-risk species, etc.) and sought existing datasets that could be developed into indicators of these factors. To be included in the study, datasets had to be spatially explicit or already summarized for individual parks and provide consistent data for at least all parks within the contiguous U.S. (CONUS). The need for consistent data across such a large geographic extent limited the number of datasets that could be included, excluded some important drivers of climate-change vulnerability, and prevented adequate evaluation of some geographies. The lack of adequately-scaled data for many key vulnerability factors, such as freshwater flooding risks and increased storm activity, highlights the need for both data development and more detailed vulnerability assessments at local to regional scales where data for these factors may be available. In addition, most of the available data at this scale were related to climate-change exposures, with relatively little data available for factors associated with climate-change sensitivity or adaptive capacity. In particular, we lacked consistent data on the distribution or abundance of cultural resources or accessible data on infrastructure across all parks. We identified resource types, geographies, and critical vulnerability factors that lacked data for NPS’ consideration in addressing data gaps. Forty-seven indicators met our criteria, and these were combined into 21 climate-change vulnerability factors. Twenty-seven indicators representing 12 vulnerability factors addressed climate-change exposure (i.e., projected changes in climate conditions and impacts). A smaller number of indictors measured sensitivity (12 indicators representing 5 vulnerability factors). The sensitivity indicators often measured park or landscape characteristics which may make resources more or less responsive to climate changes (e.g., current air quality) as opposed to directly representing the sensitivity of specific resources within the park (e.g., a particular rare species or type of historical structure). Finally, 6 indicators representing 4 vulnerability factors measured external adaptive capacity for living resources (i.e., characteristics of the park and/or surrounding landscape which may facilitate or impede species adaptation to climate changes). We identified indicators relevant to three resource groups: terrestrial living, aquatic living (including living cultural resources such as culturally significant landscapes, plant, or animal species) and non-living resources (including infrastructure and non-living cultural resources such as historic buildings or archeological sites). We created separate indicator lists for each of these resource groups and analyzed them separately. To identify priority geographies within CONUS,...

There is growing consensus that political factors are a key determinant of development impact. The practice of Thinking and Working Politically (TWP) is built around three interconnected principles: (i) strong political analysis, insight, and understanding; (ii) detailed appreciation of, and response to, the local context; and (iii) flexibility and adaptability in program design and implementation. The literature notes that while TWP emphasises the centrality of politics and power, technical knowledge is still important and can reinforce the political agenda, for example by increasing the confidence of smaller states or by strengthening collective understanding. Furthermore, improving the quality of domestic cooperation can be a step towards regional cooperation, and flexible engagement with the diverse range of actors that populate transboundary settings has been shown to be an effective strategy. The literature also highlights lessons learned including Transboundary cooperation can be built from the bottom up and for development partners, pre-existing bilateral partnerships may facilitate their engagement at a transboundary level, particularly on sensitive issues. Given the relatively isolated experience of TWP in transboundary settings, the evidence base for this report is also limited. The two areas where most examples were found concern regional integration and transboundary water management.

This literature review finds that the main malicious threats to civilian aviation since 1975 are attacks by terrorist groups, deliberate or accidental damage arising from conflicts, and incidents caused by people who work for airlines or airports. While the sector has responded to hijackings and bombings with increasing security since the 1970s, actors seeking to attack aircraft have modified their tactics, and new threats such as liquid explosives and cyber attacks have emerged. Civilian aviation has seen relatively fewer accidents and deaths over the years, but threats remain. The review focuses on malicious threats to civilian aviation. It, therefore, excludes weather events or accidents. The first section lists major malicious threats to civilian aviation since 1975. It includes both actual and planned events (e.g. hijackings that were prevented) that are recorded in open-source documents. Each threat is listed alongside information on its cause (e.g. terrorism, state actions, crime), the context in which it occurred (broader factors shaping the risk including geography, regime type, technology), and its impact (on passengers, policy, security, economic). The second section discusses some of the trends in threats to aviation. Motives for malicious threats include terrorism, crime, asylum-seeking, and insider attacks by aggrieved or mentally ill airline staff. Hijacking has been the most common form of threat, although bombing or suicide attacks have killed more people. Threats may also take the form of accidental attacks on civilian planes misidentified as threats in conflict zones. Experts suggest that growing threats are cyberattacks and the use of unmanned aerial vehicles, although neither has yet caused a major incident.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

The Colombian financial system has not suffered major structural disruptions during these months of deep economic contraction and has continued to carry out its basic functions as usual, thus facilitating the economy's response to extreme conditions. This is the result of the soundness of financial institutions at the beginning of the crisis, which was reflected in high liquidity and capital adequacy indicators as well as in the timely response of various authorities. Banco de la República lowered its policy interest rates 250 points to 1.75%, the lowest level since the creation of the new independent bank in 1991, and provided ample temporary and permanent liquidity in both pesos and foreign currency. The Office of the Financial Superintendent of Colombia, in turn, adopted prudential measures to facilitate changes in the conditions for loans in effect and temporary rules for rating and loan-loss provisions. Finally, the national government expanded the transfers as well as the guaranteed credit programs for the economy. The supply of real credit (i.e. discounting inflation) in the economy is 4% higher today than it was 12 months ago with especially marked growth in the housing (5.6%) and commercial (4.7%) loan portfolios (2.3% in consumer and -0.1% in microloans), but there have been significant changes over time. During the first few months of the quarantine, firms increased their demands for liquidity sharply while consumers reduced theirs. Since then, the growth of credit to firms has tended to slow down, while consumer and housing credit has grown. The financial system has responded satisfactorily to the changes in the respective demands of each group or sector and loans may grow at high rates in 2021 if GDP grows at rates close to 4.6% as the technical staff at the Bank expects; but the forecasts are highly uncertain. After the strict quarantine implemented by authorities in Colombia, the turmoil seen in March and early April, which was evident in the sudden reddening of macroeconomic variables on the risk heatmap in Graph A,[1] and the drop in crude oil and coal prices (note the high volatility registered in market risk for the region on Graph A) the local financial markets stabilized relatively quickly. Banco de la República’s credible and sustained policy response played a decisive role in this stabilization in terms of liquidity provision through a sharp expansion of repo operations (and changes in amounts, terms, counterparties, and eligible instruments), the purchases of public and private debt, and the reduction in bank reserve requirements. In this respect, there is now abundant aggregate liquidity and significant improvements in the liquidity position of investment funds. In this context, the main vulnerability factor for financial stability in the short term is still the high degree of uncertainty surrounding loan quality. First, the future trajectory of the number of people infected and deceased by the virus and the possible need for additional health measures is uncertain. For that reason, there is also uncertainty about the path for economic recovery in the short and medium term. Second, the degree to which the current shock will be reflected in loan quality once the risk materializes in banks’ financial statements is uncertain. For the time being, the credit risk heatmap (Graph B) indicates that non-performing and risky loans have not shown major deterioration, but past experience indicates that periods of sharp economic slowdown eventually tend to coincide with rises in non-performing loans: the calculations included in this report suggest that the impact of the recession on credit quality could be significant in the short term. This is particularly worrying since the profitability of credit establishments has been declining in recent months, and this could affect their ability to provide credit to the real sector of the economy. In order to adopt a forward-looking approach to this vulnerability, this Report presents several stress tests that evaluate the resilience of the liquidity and capital adequacy of credit institutions and investment funds in the event of a hypothetical scenario that seeks to simulate an extreme version of current macroeconomic conditions. The results suggest that even though there could be strong impacts on the credit institutions’ volume of credit and profitability under such scenarios, aggregate indicators of total and core capital adequacy will probably remain at levels that are above the regulatory limits over the horizon of a year. At the same time, the exercises highlight the high capacity of the system's liquidity to face adverse scenarios. In compliance with its constitutional objectives and in coordination with the financial system's security network, Banco de la República will continue to closely monitor the outlook for financial stability at this juncture and will make the decisions that are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of the economy, facilitate the flow of sufficient credit and liquidity resources, and further the smooth operation of the payment systems. Juan José Echavarría Governor

From this edition, the Financial Stability Report will have fewer pages with some changes in its structure. The purpose of this change is to present the most relevant facts of the financial system and their implications on the financial stability. This allows displaying the analysis more concisely and clearly, as it will focus on describing the evolution of the variables that have the greatest impact on the performance of the financial system, for estimating then the effect of a possible materialization of these risks on the financial health of the institutions. The changing dynamics of the risks faced by the financial system implies that the content of the Report adopts this new structure; therefore, some analyses and series that were regularly included will not necessarily be in each issue. However, the statistical annex that accompanies the publication of the Report will continue to present the series that were traditionally included, regardless of whether or not they are part of the content of the Report. In this way we expect to contribute in a more comprehensive way to the study and analysis of the stability of the Colombian financial system. Executive Summary During the first half of 2015, the main advanced economies showed a slow recovery on their growth, while emerging economies continued with their slowdown trend. Domestic demand in the United States allowed for stabilization on its average growth for the first half of the year, while other developed economies such as the United Kingdom, the euro zone, and Japan showed a more gradual recovery. On the other hand, the Chinese economy exhibited the lowest growth rate in five years, which has resulted in lower global dynamism. This has led to a fall in prices of the main export goods of some Latin American economies, especially oil, whose price has also responded to a larger global supply. The decrease in the terms of trade of the Latin American economies has had an impact on national income, domestic demand, and growth. This scenario has been reflected in increases in sovereign risk spreads, devaluations of stock indices, and depreciation of the exchange rates of most countries in the region. For Colombia, the fall in oil prices has also led to a decline in the terms of trade, resulting in pressure on the dynamics of national income. Additionally, the lower demand for exports helped to widen the current account deficit. This affected the prospects and economic growth of the country during the first half of 2015. This economic context could have an impact on the payment capacity of debtors and on the valuation of investments, affecting the soundness of the financial system. However, the results of the analysis featured in this edition of the Report show that, facing an adverse scenario, the vulnerability of the financial system in terms of solvency and liquidity is low. The analysis of the current situation of credit institutions (CI) shows that growth of the gross loan portfolio remained relatively stable, as well as the loan portfolio quality indicators, except for microcredit, which showed a decrease in these indicators. Regarding liabilities, traditional sources of funding have lost market share versus non-traditional ones (bonds, money market operations and in the interbank market), but still represent more than 70%. Moreover, the solvency indicator remained relatively stable. As for non-banking financial institutions (NBFI), the slowdown observed during the first six months of 2015 in the real annual growth of the assets total, both in the proprietary and third party position, stands out. The analysis of the main debtors of the financial system shows that indebtedness of the private corporate sector has increased in the last year, mostly driven by an increase in the debt balance with domestic and foreign financial institutions. However, the increase in this latter source of funding has been influenced by the depreciation of the Colombian peso vis-à-vis the US dollar since mid-2014. The financial indicators reflected a favorable behavior with respect to the historical average, except for the profitability indicators; although they were below the average, they have shown improvement in the last year. By economic sector, it is noted that the firms focused on farming, mining and transportation activities recorded the highest levels of risk perception by credit institutions, and the largest increases in default levels with respect to those observed in December 2014. Meanwhile, households have shown an increase in the financial burden, mainly due to growth in the consumer loan portfolio, in which the modalities of credit card, payroll deductible loan, revolving and vehicle loan are those that have reported greater increases in risk indicators. On the side of investments that could be affected by the devaluation in the portfolio of credit institutions and non-banking financial institutions (NBFI), the largest share of public debt securities, variable-yield securities and domestic private debt securities is highlighted. The value of these portfolios fell between February and August 2015, driven by the devaluation in the market of these investments throughout the year. Furthermore, the analysis of the liquidity risk indicator (LRI) shows that all intermediaries showed adequate levels and exhibit a stable behavior. Likewise, the fragility analysis of the financial system associated with the increase in the use of non-traditional funding sources does not evidence a greater exposure to liquidity risk. Stress tests assess the impact of the possible joint materialization of credit and market risks, and reveal that neither the aggregate solvency indicator, nor the liquidity risk indicator (LRI) of the system would be below the established legal limits. The entities that result more individually affected have a low share in the total assets of the credit institutions; therefore, a risk to the financial system as a whole is not observed. José Darío Uribe Governor