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Artículos de revistas sobre el tema "Consensus estimates"

Autor: Grafiati

Publicado: 4 de junio de 2021

Última modificación: 1 de febrero de 2022

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1

Cook, John, Naomi Oreskes, Peter T. Doran, William R. L. Anderegg, Bart Verheggen, Ed W. Maibach, J. Stuart Carlton et al. "Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming". Environmental Research Letters 11, n.º 4 (1 de abril de 2016): 048002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002.

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2

Caldwell, John C. y Thomas Schindlmayr. "Historical Population Estimates: Unraveling the Consensus". Population and Development Review 28, n.º 2 (junio de 2002): 183–204. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2002.00183.x.

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3

Piepho, Hans-Peter. "Weighted estimates of interlaboratory consensus values". Computational Statistics & Data Analysis 22, n.º 5 (septiembre de 1996): 471–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0167-9473(96)00005-9.

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4

Kim, Hong Ki, Minji Kim y Sang Hyun Lee. "Vehicular Localization Enhancement via Consensus". Sensors 20, n.º 22 (14 de noviembre de 2020): 6506. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/s20226506.

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This paper presents a strategy to cooperatively enhance the vehicular localization in vehicle-to-everything (V2X) networks by exchanges and updates of local data in a consensus-based manner. Where each vehicle in the network can obtain its location estimate despite its possible inaccuracy, the proposed strategy takes advantage of the abundance of the local estimates to improve the overall accuracy. During the execution of the strategy, vehicles exchange each other’s inter-vehicular relationship pertaining to measured distances and angles in order to update their own estimates. The iteration of the update rules leads to averaging out the measurement errors within the network, resulting in all vehicles’ localization error to retain similar magnitudes and orientations with respect to the ground truth locations. Furthermore, the estimate error of the anchor—the vehicle with the most reliable localization performance—is temporarily aggravated through the iteration. Such circumstances are exploited to simultaneously counteract the estimate errors and effectively improve the localization performance. Simulated experiments are conducted in order to observe the nature and its effects of the operations. The outcomes of the experiments and analysis of the protocol suggest that the presented technique successfully enhances the localization performances, while making additional insights regarding performance according to environmental changes and different implementation techniques.

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5

Clement, Russell W., Rashmi R. Sinha y Joachim Krueger. "A Computerized Demonstration of the False Consensus Effect". Teaching of Psychology 24, n.º 2 (abril de 1997): 131–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1207/s15328023top2402_12.

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Students in an advanced undergraduate laboratory course on social cognition replicated an experiment on the false consensus effect (Krueger & Clement, 1994). Interacting with a computer program, students viewed 40 statements. For each statement, they indicated whether they personally endorsed it, estimated the proportion of the population that would endorse it, and rated its social desirability. Half the students received feedback on the actual consensus in the population after making each consensus estimate, and the remaining students did not. Students analyzed data using a spreadsheet program. They found the traditional false consensus effect as item endorsers gave higher consensus estimates than did nonendorsers. They also found reliable within-subjects correlations between item endorsements and estimation errors, demonstrating the truly false consensus effect. Students also learned that feedback about the actual consensus does not reduce bias.

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6

Marks, Gary y Shelley Duval. "Availability of alternative positions and estimates of consensus". British Journal of Social Psychology 30, n.º 2 (junio de 1991): 179–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.2044-8309.1991.tb00935.x.

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7

Ugrinovskii, V. "Distributed robust filtering with H∞ consensus of estimates". Automatica 47, n.º 1 (enero de 2011): 1–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.automatica.2010.10.002.

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8

Velden, Christopher S. y Derrick Herndon. "A Consensus Approach for Estimating Tropical Cyclone Intensity from Meteorological Satellites: SATCON". Weather and Forecasting 35, n.º 4 (1 de agosto de 2020): 1645–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-20-0015.1.

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ABSTRACTA consensus-based algorithm for estimating the current intensity of global tropical cyclones (TCs) from meteorological satellites is described. The method objectively combines intensity estimates from infrared and microwave-based techniques to produce a consensus TC intensity estimate, which is more skillful than the individual members. The method, called Satellite Consensus (SATCON), can be run in near–real time and employs information sharing between member algorithms and a weighting strategy that relies on the situational precision of each member. An evaluation of the consensus algorithm’s performance in comparison with its individual members and other available operational estimates of TC intensity is presented. It is shown that SATCON can provide valuable objective intensity estimates for poststorm assessments, especially in the absence of other data such as provided by reconnaissance aircraft. It can also serve as a near-real-time estimator of TC intensity for forecasters, with the ability to quickly reconcile differences in objective intensity methods and thus decrease the uncertainty and amount of time spent on the intensity analysis. Near-real-time SATCON estimates are being provided to global operational TC forecast centers.

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9

Swets, J. A., C. E. Feehrer, R. A. Greenes y T. E. Bynum. "Use of Probability Estimates in Medical Communications and Decisions". Methods of Information in Medicine 25, n.º 01 (enero de 1986): 35–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1055/s-0038-1635450.

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SummaryQuantitatively sophisticated physicians in general internal medicine gave a series of probability estimates about each of several cases, which consisted of a written case background and radiological test report. First, they estimated the three quantities of Bayes’ formula: the pretest probability based on the background, the likelihood ratio based on the test report, and the posttest probability based on both. They made two further estimates of the posttest probability, one after being informed of the consensus of expert radiologists on the likelihood ratio of the test and another after being told a consensus pretest probability formed by experts in the medical speciality relevant to the case backgrounds. They also stated how high (low) the posttest probability would have to be in order to confirm (rule out) the suspected disease and estimated the chances that the test report would serve to move the posttest probability across one of those thresholds.On average, the clinician subjects agreed quite well with the experts’ estimates and with Bayes’ formula. Information about experts’ consensuses influenced the subjects’ estimates in the appropriate direction and decreased the variation among subjects. These results are taken to indicate the feasibility and potential effectiveness of certain quantitative aids to clinical decision making. On the other hand, the variation among the subjects’ estimates, and among experts’ estimates, was substantial - enough to warrant attempts to understand it and to reduce it. Diagnostic criteria that the subjects reported using for case backgrounds and for test reports were analyzed as a way of accounting for some of the variation.

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10

Vazquez-Olguin, Miguel, Yuriy S. Shmaliy y Oscar G. Ibarra-Manzano. "Distributed UFIR Filtering Over WSNs With Consensus on Estimates". IEEE Transactions on Industrial Informatics 16, n.º 3 (marzo de 2020): 1645–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/tii.2019.2930649.

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11

Pyszczynski, Tom, Robert A. Wicklund, Stefan Floresku, Holgar Koch, Gerardine Gauch, Sheldon Solomon y Jeff Greenberg. "Whistling in the Dark: Exaggerated Consensus Estimates in Response to Incidental Reminders of Mortality". Psychological Science 7, n.º 6 (noviembre de 1996): 332–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9280.1996.tb00384.x.

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Terror management theory posits that cultural worldviews function to provide protection against anxiety concerning human vulnerability and mortality and that their effectiveness as buffers against such anxiety is maintained through a process of consensual validation Two field experiments were conducted to test the hypothesis that incidental reminders of one's mortality increase the need to believe that others share one's worldview In both studies, passersby on city streets were asked to estimate the extent of social consensus for culturally relevant attitudes, 100 m before passing a funeral home, 100 m after passing a funeral home, or directly in front of a funeral home In the first study, conducted in Germany, subjects were asked to estimate the percentage of Germans who shared their opinions about a proposal to change the German constitution to restrict the immigration of foreigners, in the second study, conducted in the United States, subjects were asked to estimate the percentage of Americans who shared their opinions about the teaching of Christian values in the public schools In both studies, subjects who held the minority position on the issue estimated greater consensus for their opinions when interviewed directly in front of a funeral home than when interviewed either before or after passing it

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12

Rojahn, Christopher, Roland L. Sharpe, Roger E. Scholl, Anne S. Kiremidjian, Richard V. Nutt y R. R. Wilson. "Earthquake Damage and Loss Evaluation for California". Earthquake Spectra 2, n.º 4 (octubre de 1986): 767–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.1585410.

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Consensus-opinion earthquake damage and loss estimates and companion loss estimation and inventory methdology have been developed for existing facilities in California. These data and methodology are needed to provide input into computer simulation methodologies developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) that estimate the economic impacts of real or hypothetical California earthquakes on the state, region, and nation. Data and methodology developed include: consensus opinion damage-factor estimates (expected physical damage due to ground shaking); methodology to adjust damage-factor estimates to account for construction quality; methodology to estimate the effects of collateral hazards such as ground failure, fault rupture, and inundation; loss-of-function data and methodology to estimate the time it takes to restore damaged facilities to their pre-earthquake usability; methodology to estimate deaths and injuries; and inventory data and methodology for all types of existing industrial, commercial, residential, utility and transportation facilities in California. Damage-factor estimates are provided for Modified Mercalli Intensities VI through XII in the form of Damage Probability Matrices. Seven damage states are considered: 0%, 0-1%, 1-10%, 10-30%, 30-60%, 60-100%, and 100% damage. Loss-of-Function estimates, which specify the time required to restore a facility to 30%, 60%, and 100% of the pre-earthquake usability, are provided for these same seven damage states.

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13

Kenworthy, Jared B. y Norman Miller. "Perceptual asymmetry in consensus estimates of majority and minority members." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 80, n.º 4 (2001): 597–612. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.80.4.597.

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14

Ha, Bach Q. y Jason D. Hartline. "Mechanism Design via Consensus Estimates, Cross Checking, and Profit Extraction". ACM Transactions on Economics and Computation 1, n.º 2 (mayo de 2013): 1–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/2465769.2465773.

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15

Angeli, David y Pierre-Alexandre Bliman. "Tight estimates for convergence of some non-stationary consensus algorithms". Systems & Control Letters 57, n.º 12 (diciembre de 2008): 996–1004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.sysconle.2008.06.005.

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16

Sampson, Charles R., James S. Goerss, John A. Knaff, Brian R. Strahl, Edward M. Fukada y Efren A. Serra. "Tropical Cyclone Gale Wind Radii Estimates, Forecasts, and Error Forecasts for the Western North Pacific". Weather and Forecasting 33, n.º 4 (1 de agosto de 2018): 1081–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-17-0153.1.

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Abstract In 2016, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center extended forecasts of gale-force and other wind radii to 5 days. That effort and a thrust to perform postseason analysis of gale-force wind radii for the “best tracks” (the quality controlled and documented tropical cyclone track and intensity estimates released after the season) have prompted requirements for new guidance to address the challenges of both. At the same time, operational tools to estimate and predict wind radii continue to evolve, now forming a quality suite of gale-force wind radii analysis and forecasting tools. This work provides an update to real-time estimates of gale-force wind radii (a mean/consensus of gale-force individual wind radii estimates) that includes objective scatterometer-derived estimates. The work also addresses operational gale-force wind radii forecasting in that it provides an update to a gale-force wind radii forecast consensus, which now includes gale-force wind radii forecast error estimates to accompany the gale-force wind radii forecasts. The gale-force wind radii forecast error estimates are computed using predictors readily available in real time (e.g., consensus spread, initial size, and forecast intensity) so that operational reliability and timeliness can be ensured. These updates were all implemented in operations at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center by January 2018, and more updates should be expected in the coming years as new and improved guidance becomes available.

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17

Koonce, Lisa, Michael G. Williamson y Jennifer Winchel. "Consensus Information and Nonprofessional Investors’ Reaction to the Revelation of Estimate Inaccuracies". Accounting Review 85, n.º 3 (1 de mayo de 2010): 979–1000. http://dx.doi.org/10.2308/accr.2010.85.3.979.

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ABSTRACT: To curb opportunism in financial reporting, researchers and regulators have proposed that firms be required to report reconciliations of prior year estimates. We provide experimental evidence that such disclosures are not sufficient for nonprofessional investors to identify firms that are opportunistic in their estimates. We also offer evidence suggesting that the value of these disclosures can be enhanced when nonprofessional investors seek out information about the estimate accuracy of other firms in the industry (i.e., consensus information). Our study provides insights about these disclosures and the mechanisms that enhance their effectiveness. Our findings have broad implications for standard-setters and future research designed to assist in identifying opportunistic management behavior.

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18

Yu, Liutao, Chundi Wang, Si Wu y Da-Hui Wang. "Communication speeds up but impairs the consensus decision in a dyadic colour estimation task". Royal Society Open Science 7, n.º 7 (julio de 2020): 191974. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.191974.

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Communication plays an important role in consensus decision-making which pervades our daily life. However, the exact role of communication in consensus formation is not clear. Here, to study the effects of communication on consensus formation, we designed a dyadic colour estimation task, where a pair of isolated participants repeatedly estimated the colours of discs until they reached a consensus or completed eight estimations, either with or without communication. We show that participants’ estimates gradually approach each other, reaching towards a consensus, and these are enhanced with communication. We also show that dyadic consensus estimation is on average better than individual estimation. Surprisingly, consensus estimation without communication generally outperforms that with communication, indicating that communication impairs the improvement of consensus estimation. However, without communication, it takes longer to reach a consensus. Moreover, participants who partially cooperate with each other tend to result in better overall consensus. Taken together, we have identified the effect of communication on the dynamics of consensus formation, and the results may have implications on group decision-making in general.

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19

Fragoso-Rubio, V., M. Velasco-Villa, M. A. Vallejo-Alarcón, J. A. Vásquez-Santacruz y M. A. Hernández-Pérez. "Consensus Problem for Linear Time-Invariant Systems with Time-Delay". Mathematical Problems in Engineering 2019 (7 de julio de 2019): 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/1607474.

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This work deals with the consensus problem of networks of agents with linear time-invariant dynamics and input time-delay. A predictor-observer scheme that estimates the future value of the system state is considered. The partitioned nature of the predictor allows dealing with larger time-delays than those reported in the literature. The estimated future state of the system is later used in the consensus protocol with the aim of compensating the system input delay. The effectiveness of the solution is shown by means of numerical evaluations.

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20

Angeli, David y Pierre-Alexandre Bliman. "Tight estimates for non-stationary consensus with fixed underlying spanning tree". IFAC Proceedings Volumes 41, n.º 2 (2008): 9021–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.3182/20080706-5-kr-1001.01523.

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21

Egemen, Didem, Li C. Cheung, Xiaojian Chen, Maria Demarco, Rebecca B. Perkins, Walter Kinney, Nancy Poitras et al. "Risk Estimates Supporting the 2019 ASCCP Risk-Based Management Consensus Guidelines". Journal of Lower Genital Tract Disease 24, n.º 2 (abril de 2020): 132–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/lgt.0000000000000529.

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22

Chen, Hong-Jen, Brian T. Yates y Elliott McGinnies. "Effects of Involvement on Observers' Estimates of Consensus, Distinctiveness, and Consistency". Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 14, n.º 3 (septiembre de 1988): 468–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0146167288143005.

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23

Tamura, Mie. "Effects of other-judgment and group numerical status on consensus estimates". JAPANESE JOURNAL OF EXPERIMENTAL SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY 45, n.º 1 (2005): 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.2130/jjesp.45.1.

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24

Chowdhury, Nilanjan Roy y Srikant Sukumar. "A comparative study of persistence based convergence rate estimates to consensus". IFAC-PapersOnLine 48, n.º 11 (2015): 534–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ifacol.2015.09.241.

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25

Ha, Seung-Yeal, Shi Jin y Doheon Kim. "Convergence and error estimates for time-discrete consensus-based optimization algorithms". Numerische Mathematik 147, n.º 2 (22 de enero de 2021): 255–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00211-021-01174-y.

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26

Gendolla, Guido H. E. y Robert A. Wicklund. "Self-Focused Attention, Perspective-Taking, and False Consensus". Social Psychology 40, n.º 2 (enero de 2009): 66–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1027/1864-9335.40.2.66.

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A quasi-experimental study examined the effects of self-focused attention on acknowledging or ignoring others’ perspectives. University students scoring high vs. low in private and public self-focus estimated the opinion of a fellow student. For these estimates, a relevant cue for the fellow student’s most probable opinion was provided or not. The results replicate earlier studies that have demonstrated that attention focused on the self enhances perspective-taking and reduces egocentrism when a cue for others’ perspectives is provided: High private self-focus (self-awareness) turned out to further perspective-taking and, thus, to reduce egocentrism under the critical condition of a cue being presented for the other’s perspective. These results, as well as earlier research, contradict findings by Fenigstein and Abrams (1993) , which were interpreted as showing that self-focus enhances egocentrism in a false consensus paradigm.

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27

Annoni, Jennifer, Christopher Bay, Kathryn Johnson, Emiliano Dall'Anese, Eliot Quon, Travis Kemper y Paul Fleming. "Wind direction estimation using SCADA data with consensus-based optimization". Wind Energy Science 4, n.º 2 (20 de junio de 2019): 355–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/wes-4-355-2019.

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Abstract. Wind turbines in a wind farm typically operate individually to maximize their own performance and do not take into account information from nearby turbines. To enable cooperation to achieve farm-level objectives, turbines will need to use information from nearby turbines to optimize performance, ensure resiliency when other sensors fail, and adapt to changing local conditions. A key element of achieving a more efficient wind farm is to develop algorithms that ensure reliable, robust, real-time, and efficient operation of wind turbines in a wind farm using local sensor information that is already being collected, such as supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data, local meteorological stations, and nearby radars/sodars/lidars. This article presents a framework for developing a cooperative wind farm that incorporates information from nearby turbines in real time to better align turbines in a wind farm. SCADA data from multiple turbines can be used to make better estimates of the local inflow conditions at each individual turbine. By incorporating measurements from multiple nearby turbines, a more reliable estimate of the wind direction can be obtained at an individual turbine. The consensus-based approach presented in this paper uses information from nearby turbines to estimate wind direction in an iterative way rather than aggregating all the data in a wind farm at once. Results indicate that this estimate of the wind direction can be used to improve the turbine's knowledge of the wind direction. This estimated wind direction signal has implications for potentially decreasing dynamic yaw misalignment, decreasing the amount of time a turbine spends yawing due to a more reliable input to the yaw controller, increasing resiliency to faulty wind-vane measurements, and increasing the potential for wind farm control strategies such as wake steering.

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28

Verlhiac, Jean-François. "Non diagnostic information and the effects of context evaluation in the moderation of False Consensus 1The author expresses his appreciation to Stephan Kraitsowits and anonymous reviewers for their comments on earlier versions of this article." Swiss Journal of Psychology 58, n.º 1 (marzo de 1999): 12–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1024//1421-0185.58.1.12.

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The hypothesis that non-diagnostic information about consensus may reduce False Consensus (FC) was tested in a 2 × 2 × 2 between-subjects design. Eighty nine participants were told that they were to be assessed on their judgement expertise in impression formation. First, half of the participants were led to believe that, during a vigilance task they had performed, they had been exposed to consensus information about the opinion of their peers towards a specific target person. The other half received no information. Subjects had then to complete two questionnaires. An attitude questionnaire assessed subjects' attitude towards the target (favourable or not favourable), deduced from their predictions of the target's answers. In a consensus questionnaire the subjects had to make percentage estimates. The order for completing the two questionnaires was counterbalanced. Finally, subjects were asked to indicate their personal confidence as to their consensus estimates. Results provided direct evidence for a decrease in FC when subjects were informed about their exposure to consensus information, and an increase in FC when they were not informed. Decrease in FC is linked to situational characteristics which cause subjects to question the reliability of their estimates and to take into account data that are not solely related to the self.

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29

Bruine de Bruin, Wändi, Mirta Galesic, Andrew M. Parker y Raffaele Vardavas. "The Role of Social Circle Perceptions in “False Consensus” about Population Statistics: Evidence from a National Flu Survey". Medical Decision Making 40, n.º 2 (febrero de 2020): 235–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0272989x20904960.

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Purpose. “False consensus” refers to individuals with (v. without) an experience judging that experience as more (v. less) prevalent in the population. We examined the role of people’s perceptions of their social circles (family, friends, and acquaintances) in shaping their population estimates, false consensus patterns, and vaccination intentions. Methods. In a national online flu survey, 351 participants indicated their personal vaccination and flu experiences, assessed the percentage of individuals with those experiences in their social circles and the population, and reported their vaccination intentions. Results. Participants’ population estimates of vaccination coverage and flu prevalence were associated with their perceptions of their social circles’ experiences, independent of their own experiences. Participants reporting less social circle “homophily” (or fewer social contacts sharing their experience) showed less false consensus and even “false uniqueness.” Vaccination intentions were greater among nonvaccinators reporting greater social circle vaccine coverage. Discussion. Social circle perceptions play a role in population estimates and, among individuals who do not vaccinate, vaccination intentions. We discuss implications for the literature on false consensus, false uniqueness, and social norms interventions.

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Vazquez-Olguin, Miguel, Yuriy S. Shmaliy, Oscar Ibarra-Manzano, Jorge Munoz-Minjares y Carlos Lastre-Dominguez. "Object Tracking Over Distributed WSNs With Consensus on Estimates and Missing Data". IEEE Access 7 (2019): 39448–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/access.2019.2905514.

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31

Manstead, Antony S. R., Dianne Parker, Stephen G. Stradling, James T. Reason y James S. Baxter. "Perceived Consensus in Estimates of the Prevalence of Driving Errors and Violations". Journal of Applied Social Psychology 22, n.º 7 (abril de 1992): 509–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1559-1816.1992.tb00987.x.

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32

Hovardas, Tasos y Konstantinos Korfiatis. "Effects of an Environmental Education Course on Consensus Estimates for Proenvironmental Intentions". Environment and Behavior 44, n.º 6 (10 de mayo de 2011): 760–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0013916511407308.

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33

Bhalotra, Sonia y Damian Clarke. "The Twin Instrument: Fertility and Human Capital Investment". Journal of the European Economic Association 18, n.º 6 (25 de diciembre de 2019): 3090–139. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvz058.

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Abstract Twin births are often used as an instrument to address selection of women into fertility. However, recent work shows selection of women into twin birth such that, while OLS estimates tend to be downward biased, twin-IV estimates will tend to be upward biased. This is pertinent given the emerging consensus that fertility has limited impacts on women’s labour supply, or on investments in children. Using data for developing countries and the United States to estimate the trade-off between fertility and children’s human capital, we demonstrate the nature and size of the bias in the twin-IV estimator and estimate bounds on the true parameter.

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34

Kobayashi, Keiichi. "The Impact of Perceived Scientific and Social Consensus on Scientific Beliefs". Science Communication 40, n.º 1 (12 de enero de 2018): 63–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1075547017748948.

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Two studies examined perceptions of scientific and social (social network and public) consensus on scientific issues and their impact on scientific beliefs, using samples of Japanese people. In Study 1 ( N = 434), participants’ estimates of scientific and social consensus predicted their scientific beliefs independently of each other. In Study 2 ( N = 694), the presentation of scientific and public consensus information as an anchor for consensus estimation influenced participants’ scientific beliefs through their perceptions of scientific and public consensus. The perceived credibility of scientists had little if any effect on the relationship between perceived scientific consensus and scientific beliefs.

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35

Wesson, Paul D., Willi McFarland, Cong Charlie Qin y Ali Mirzazadeh. "Software Application Profile: The Anchored Multiplier calculator—a Bayesian tool to synthesize population size estimates". International Journal of Epidemiology 48, n.º 6 (18 de mayo de 2019): 1744–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyz101.

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Abstract Estimating the number of people in hidden populations is needed for public health research, yet available methods produce highly variable and uncertain results. The Anchored Multiplier calculator uses a Bayesian framework to synthesize multiple population size estimates to generate a consensus estimate. Users submit point estimates and lower/upper bounds which are converted to beta probability distributions and combined to form a single posterior probability distribution. The Anchored Multiplier calculator is available as a web browser-based application. The software allows for unlimited empirical population size estimates to be submitted and combined according to Bayes Theorem to form a single estimate. The software returns output as a forest plot (to visually compare data inputs and the final Anchored Multiplier estimate) and a table that displays results as population percentages and counts. The web application ‘Anchored Multiplier Calculator’ is free software and is available at [http://globalhealthsciences.ucsf.edu/resources/tools] or directly at [http://anchoredmultiplier.ucsf.edu/].

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36

Liu, Jun, Yu Liu, Kai Dong, Ziran Ding y You He. "A Novel Distributed State Estimation Algorithm with Consensus Strategy". Sensors 19, n.º 9 (8 de mayo de 2019): 2134. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/s19092134.

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Owing to its high-fault tolerance and scalability, the consensus-based paradigm has attracted immense popularity for distributed state estimation. If a target is neither observed by a certain node nor by its neighbors, this node is naive about the target. Some existing algorithms have considered the presence of naive nodes, but it takes sufficient consensus iterations for these algorithms to achieve a satisfactory performance. In practical applications, because of constrained energy and communication resources, only a limited number of iterations are allowed and thus the performance of these algorithms will be deteriorated. By fusing the measurements as well as the prior estimates of each node and its neighbors, a local optimal estimate is obtained based on the proposed distributed local maximum a posterior (MAP) estimator. With some approximations of the cross-covariance matrices and a consensus protocol incorporated into the estimation framework, a novel distributed hybrid information weighted consensus filter (DHIWCF) is proposed. Then, theoretical analysis on the guaranteed stability of the proposed DHIWCF is performed. Finally, the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed DHIWCF is evaluated. Simulation results indicate that the proposed DHIWCF can achieve an acceptable estimation performance even with a single consensus iteration.

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37

Suls, Jerry y C. K. Wan. "In search of the false-uniqueness phenomenon: Fear and estimates of social consensus." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 52, n.º 1 (1987): 211–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.52.1.211.

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38

Sabini, John, Kathy Cosmas, Michael Siepmann y Julia Stein. "Underestimates and Truly False Consensus Effects in Estimates of Embarrassment and Other Emotions". Basic and Applied Social Psychology 21, n.º 3 (septiembre de 1999): 223–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1207/s15324834basp2103_6.

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39

Aubert, François, Jeff J. Wang y Gary Grudnitski. "Convergence consensus analyst earnings estimates and option pricing in modeling material accounting misstatements". Review of Accounting and Finance 18, n.º 1 (11 de febrero de 2019): 134–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/raf-05-2017-0101.

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to introduce analyst estimates and option pricing-based variables in modeling material accounting misstatements. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses a logistic regression model to analyze a comprehensive sample of AAER and non-AAER firms listed in the USA. Findings By applying a cross-sectional, sequence of time-series logistic regression models, the authors find better identifiers of ex ante risk of fraud than prediction models based on an inspection of abnormal accruals. These identifiers include the managed earnings (ME) component of a firm and the change in a firm’s option contracts’ implied volatility (IV) prior to an earnings announcement. Practical implications The empirical findings contribute to an understanding of earnings manipulation (fraud) and should be of value to auditors and regulatory bodies interested in identifying financial statement fraud, particularly the Securities and Exchange Commission, which has been improving its accounting quality model (AQM or Robocop) fraud detection tool for many years. The results contribute substantially to enhancing the current accounting literature by introducing two non-accrual-based measures that significantly enhance the predictive power of an accrual-based accounting misstatement prediction model. Originality/value This paper radically departs from relying on the assumption that the clearest and easiest pathway to detect fraud reporting ex ante is through an examination of accruals. Instead, the authors use a richer source of information about the possibility of a firm’s misstatement of its financial accounting numbers, namely, analyst estimates of ex post earnings and the IV from exchange-traded option contracts.

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40

Siepmann, Michael, Julia Stein, John Sabini y Kathy Cosmas. "Underestimates and Truly False Consensus Effects in Estimates of Embarrassment and Other Emotions". Basic and Applied Social Psychology 21, n.º 3 (1 de septiembre de 1999): 223–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1207/15324839951036399.

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41

TAKIZAWA, Jun, Takuhiro OZAWA y Toshiyuki YAMASHITA. "Effects of Processing Resources on Consensus Estimates of Sense of Humor in Comedians". Proceedings of the Annual Convention of the Japanese Psychological Association 75 (2011): 1AM009. http://dx.doi.org/10.4992/pacjpa.75.0_1am009.

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42

Krueger, Joachim y Russell W. Clement. "Estimates of Social Consensus by Majorities and Minorities: The Case for Social Projection". Personality and Social Psychology Review 1, n.º 4 (noviembre de 1997): 299–313. http://dx.doi.org/10.1207/s15327957pspr0104_2.

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Meta-analyses of research on consensus estimation have identified an asymmetry in the error patterns between majorities and minorities (Gross & Miller, 1997; Mullen & Hu, 1988). Members of the majority slightly underestimate the size of their own group, whereas members of the minority strongly overestimate the size of theirs. The present analysis shows that a single psychological assumption about projection is sufficient to explain this asymmetry. Most people, regardless of whether they are actually members of the majority or members of the minority, believe themselves to be in the majority. It is not necessary to attribute different psychological mechanisms, such as ego protection or cognitive availability, to majority and minority members. A simple quantitative model and empirical data illustrate this point.

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43

Klar, Yechiel. "Dysphoria and Consensus Estimates for Behavioral Choices: Equally Inaccurate But in Opposite Directions". Journal of Research in Personality 30, n.º 2 (junio de 1996): 278–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/jrpe.1996.0018.

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44

Carrillo, José A., Young-Pil Choi, Claudia Totzeck y Oliver Tse. "An analytical framework for consensus-based global optimization method". Mathematical Models and Methods in Applied Sciences 28, n.º 06 (21 de mayo de 2018): 1037–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0218202518500276.

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In this paper, we provide an analytical framework for investigating the efficiency of a consensus-based model for tackling global optimization problems. This work justifies the optimization algorithm in the mean-field sense showing the convergence to the global minimizer for a large class of functions. Theoretical results on consensus estimates are then illustrated by numerical simulations where variants of the method including nonlinear diffusion are introduced.

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45

Wolfson, Sandy. "Students' estimates of the prevalence of drug use: Evidence for a false consensus effect." Psychology of Addictive Behaviors 14, n.º 3 (2000): 295–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/0893-164x.14.3.295.

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46

Short, Lindsey A., Catherine J. Mondloch, Julia deJong y Harmonie Chan. "Evidence for a young adult face bias in accuracy and consensus of age estimates". British Journal of Psychology 110, n.º 4 (28 de diciembre de 2018): 652–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/bjop.12370.

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47

Berer, Marge, Iqbal Shah y Carla AbouZahr. "A call for consensus and cooperation to resolve differing estimates of abortion-related deaths". International Journal of Gynecology & Obstetrics 135, n.º 2 (noviembre de 2016): 127–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijgo.2016.05.012.

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48

Beck, Robin M. D. y Michael S. Y. Lee. "Ancient dates or accelerated rates? Morphological clocks and the antiquity of placental mammals". Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 281, n.º 1793 (22 de octubre de 2014): 20141278. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2014.1278.

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Analyses of a comprehensive morphological character matrix of mammals using ‘relaxed’ clock models (which simultaneously estimate topology, divergence dates and evolutionary rates), either alone or in combination with an 8.5 kb nuclear sequence dataset, retrieve implausibly ancient, Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous estimates for the initial diversification of Placentalia (crown-group Eutheria). These dates are much older than all recent molecular and palaeontological estimates. They are recovered using two very different clock models, and regardless of whether the tree topology is freely estimated or constrained using scaffolds to match the current consensus placental phylogeny. This raises the possibility that divergence dates have been overestimated in previous analyses that have applied such clock models to morphological and total evidence datasets. Enforcing additional age constraints on selected internal divergences results in only a slight reduction of the age of Placentalia. Constraining Placentalia to less than 93.8 Ma, congruent with recent molecular estimates, does not require major changes in morphological or molecular evolutionary rates. Even constraining Placentalia to less than 66 Ma to match the ‘explosive’ palaeontological model results in only a 10- to 20-fold increase in maximum evolutionary rate for morphology, and fivefold for molecules. The large discrepancies between clock- and fossil-based estimates for divergence dates might therefore be attributable to relatively small changes in evolutionary rates through time, although other explanations (such as overly simplistic models of morphological evolution) need to be investigated. Conversely, dates inferred using relaxed clock models (especially with discrete morphological data and M r B ayes ) should be treated cautiously, as relatively minor deviations in rate patterns can generate large effects on estimated divergence dates.

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49

Schlender, Sergio Guilherme, Marcelo Brutti Righi y Paulo Sergio Ceretta. "PERFORMANCE OF CONDITIONAL MODELS IN GOLD RISK MANAGEMENT". REAd. Revista Eletrônica de Administração (Porto Alegre) 21, n.º 3 (diciembre de 2015): 648–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/1413-2311.0022015.54927.

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ABSTRACT Even with studies to confront different risk models for gold, there is no consensus about what is the best approach or models when considering the presence of extreme negative values. To that, we employ a backtesting in conditional models with distinct distributions in order to estimate VaR and ES risk measures and, thus, find a pattern for the risk of investments in gold. We verify that the EVT approach has more conservative and volatile risk estimates, with satisfactory results in extreme situations.

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50

Sarras, Ioannis, Julien Marzat, Sylvain Bertrand y Hélène Piet-Lahanier. "Collaborative multiple micro air vehicles’ localization and target tracking in GPS-denied environment from range–velocity measurements". International Journal of Micro Air Vehicles 10, n.º 2 (4 de enero de 2018): 225–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1756829317745317.

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We treat the problem of simultaneous collaborative multiple micro air vehicles’ localization and target tracking using time-varying range and (relative and absolute) velocity measurements. The proposed solution combines robustly local nonlinear observers that estimate the relative positions between agents and their neighbors, and cooperative filters that fuse each agent’s local estimates to globally localize them with respect to the target (and therefore to each other). These estimates are then introduced in a dynamic consensus-type control law that ensures the global collective target tracking while simultaneously estimating the target’s velocity, without needing any external reference which makes it applicable in GPS-denied environments. Finally, a simulation scenario is studied in order to show the efficiency of the proposed solution.

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