Literatura académica sobre el tema "Cycle of credibility"
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Artículos de revistas sobre el tema "Cycle of credibility"
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Gill, R. Bruce. "Professionalism, Advocacy,and Credibility: A Futile Cycle?" Human Dimensions of Wildlife 6, n.º 1 (enero de 2001): 21–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10871200152668661.
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Delgado, Carlos, Iván Araya y Gabriel Pino. "Business cycle synchronization: is it affected by inflation targeting credibility?" SERIEs 11, n.º 2 (5 de octubre de 2019): 157–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13209-019-00206-z.
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Abstract We empirically study the impact of inflation targeting credibility on business cycle synchronization with G-7 economies. To do this, we use a sample of 15 inflation targeting countries to develop and calculate a reputation-based credibility measure for long- and short-term memory. By using dynamic multipliers through a panel vector autoregressive model, our main findings indicate that greater credibility allows for greater anchoring of inflation expectations by economic agents. This would lead to a greater effectiveness of monetary policy in stabilizing the evolution of prices, allowing the output gap to be more sensitive to external aggregate demand shocks. Therefore, countries with inflation targeting regimes must develop and maintain credibility for their monetary policy if they want to encourage greater interactions with the rest of the world.
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Kuncoro, Haryo. "The Credibility of Fiscal Rules Policy and Business Cycle Volatility". Scientific Annals of Economics and Business 63, n.º 2 (2016): 209–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/saeb-2016-0117.
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The aim of this paper is two-fold; first, it studies the impact of the credibility of fiscal rule policy on the stability of output growth; second, it compares the effectiveness of fiscal rule policy to discretionary and automatic stabilizer fiscal policies to address the fluctuation of output growth. Employing quarterly data over the period 2001-2013 in the case of Indonesia, we obtain that the credible debt rule leads to a decrease in the volatility of output growth while the non-credible deficit rule does not have any effect. Both unsystematic and systematic components of discretionary fiscal policy have a stabilizing function. Interestingly, the automatic stabilization tends to induce the volatility of output growth. Given those results, we infer that government spending is not a good automatic stabilizer. It seems that the lower ratio of government expenditure to GDP along with improving credibility of deficit rule policy has a smoother effect on the economy. Therefore, they implicitly support expenditure cuts when implementing fiscal adjustment with the purpose of reaching fiscal sustainability in the short-run and a stable economic growth in the long-run.
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Thornton, Jack. "The Question of Credibility". Mechanical Engineering 132, n.º 05 (1 de mayo de 2010): 40–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/1.2010-may-4.
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This article presents an overview of capabilities and applications of finite element analysis (FEA) in engineering analysis. FEA is useful wherever the risk of material failure or engineering error has serious consequences—any of the legal, regulatory, and bottom-line ramifications of product failure. They also point out that credibility lies at the heart of every simulation effort, FEA or otherwise. FEA software developers have made it easier to use their software via user-friendly graphical user interfaces. FEA is a uniquely powerful tool for prototyping, as well as reducing the traditional build-test-break cycle from months or even years of trial and error to weeks of digital calculations and validations. Digital prototyping also allows designers to quickly dig into more design options. Most complicated engineering analyses use nonlinear FEA for challenging problems. Nonlinear FEA includes elastic and plastic transformations; tension and compression; buckling; fixed and sliding contacts, fatigue, creep, large deflections and deformations; large strain; hyperelasticity, viscoelasticity, viscoplasticity, and many others. In the real world, each of the linear and nonlinear uses is problematical. Getting them right depends heavily on the analysts, so their skills should be also validated and verified.
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Li, Nan, Dominique Brossard, Dietram A. Scheufele, Paul H. Wilson y Kathleen M. Rose. "Communicating data: interactive infographics, scientific data and credibility". Journal of Science Communication 17, n.º 02 (18 de junio de 2018): A06. http://dx.doi.org/10.22323/2.17020206.
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Information visualization could be used to leverage the credibility of displayed scientific data. However, little was known about how display characteristics interact with individuals' predispositions to affect perception of data credibility. Using an experiment with 517 participants, we tested perceptions of data credibility by manipulating data visualizations related to the issue of nuclear fuel cycle based on three characteristics: graph format, graph interactivity, and source attribution. Results showed that viewers tend to rely on preexisting levels of trust and peripheral cues, such as source attribution, to judge the credibility of shown data, whereas their comprehension level did not relate to perception of data credibility. We discussed the implications for science communicators and design professionals.
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Chis, Oana, Opris Dumitru, Riccardo Concu y Bairong Shen. "Yeast Network and Report of New Stochastic-Credibility Cell Cycle Models". Current Bioinformatics 6, n.º 1 (1 de marzo de 2011): 35–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.2174/157489311795222419.
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Penders, Bart y Annemiek P. Nelis. "Credibility Engineering in the Food Industry: Linking Science, Regulation, and Marketing in a Corporate Context". Science in Context 24, n.º 4 (8 de noviembre de 2011): 487–515. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0269889711000202.
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ArgumentWe expand upon the notion of the “credibility cycle” through a study of credibility engineering by the food industry. Research and development (R&D) as well as marketing contribute to the credibility of the food company Unilever and its claims. Innovation encompasses the development, marketing, and sales of products. These are directed towards three distinct audiences: scientific peers, regulators, and consumers. R&D uses scientific articles to create credit for itself amongst peers and regulators. These articles are used to support health claims on products. However, R&D, regulation, and marketing are not separate realms. A single strategy of credibility engineering connects health claims to a specific public through linking that public to a health issue and a food product.
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Garavaglia, Elsa y Luca Sgambi. "The use of a credibility index in the life-cycle assessment of structures". Structure and Infrastructure Engineering 11, n.º 5 (14 de mayo de 2014): 683–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2014.896022.
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Huang, Xiao Rong, Shun Sheng Guo y Xiao Bing Yu. "Supplier Evaluation Based on Mobile Agent and Information Credibility". Advanced Materials Research 97-101 (marzo de 2010): 3587–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.97-101.3587.
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Supplier evaluation is the most vital action of supplier selection. Supplier evaluation data is divided into two kinds: the qualitative and the quantitative. In this study, it proposes through using mobile agent to obtain quantitative data from suppliers and expert rating methods to get qualitative data. To deal with the inconsistency of time period about getting these two types data, a new method is proposed to process the qualitative data by the establishment of information credibility about evaluation data. The obtained results show that the proposed method is well suited for supplier evaluation to shorten the evaluation cycle and enhance the timeliness.
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KONIUSZY, Adam. "The use of cluster analysis method for the development of static load cycles of diesel engines in non road vehicles". Combustion Engines 135, n.º 4 (1 de noviembre de 2008): 39–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.19206/ce-117230.
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This paper presents a methodology of development of substitute cycle of loads of non road vehicle engines. The use of cluster analysis method made it possible to locate seven characteristic phases of Z8401.12 engine loads, which occur in typical conditions of tractor operation in the region of Pomorze Zachodnie. The author compared credibility breakdowns of the obtained results and stated that the obtained cycle of loads differs from the hitherto used static tests of non road vehicles
Tesis sobre el tema "Cycle of credibility"
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Sandström, Emma. "The credibility of a journal : The notion of credit in the world of scientific publishing". Thesis, Umeå universitet, Sociologiska institutionen, 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-66119.
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Arana, Alejandro Rodriguez. "Credibility and business cycles in exchange rate based stabilization programmes". Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 1998. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/2622/.
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Differently from orthodox stabilization programmes, exchange rate based stabilization programmes (ERBS) show a peculiar cycle. Output, growth and consumption rise from the onset and there is a huge current account deficit. Since several programmes have been accompanied by huge capital inflows, the economic cycle is known as the capital inflows problem. The economic literature has identified the capital inflows problem with a situation where there is not fiscal adjustment or people do not believe in the programme (see chapter two). However, chapter one of this thesis shows that the cycle has been observed in successful and consistent programmes (Argentina 1991- , Bolivia 1985- , Israel 1985- and Mexico 1987-1994). It has been also observed in absence of capital inflows (Mexico 1988). Furthermore, some of its negatives consequences (eg balance of payments crises) have occurred in programmes under fiscal adjustment. These observations deserve an explanation. Chapter two makes a review of the literature about the economic effects of ERBS. Chapter three questions why successful ERBS have observed, increases in long run growth and/or output from the onset and also the symptoms of the capital inflows problem (higher consumption, current account deficits). To answer the question, the chapter sets a growth model in a cash in advance economy. The main results are that sluggish disinflation can increase the long run growth and definitely increases the long run output of the economy. However, it cannot explain the symptoms of the capital inflows problem by itself. When the model is extended to capture some externalities, then it suggests that the structural policies accompanying successful ERBS are responsible of higher consumption and current account deficits. In those cases, that situation is not a problem. Chapter four questions why the symptoms of the capital inflows problem may appear in absence of capital inflows. The answer is that these symptoms emerge when there is lack of credibility and the monetary policy is accommodative. In this context, actual fiscal policy is irrelevant to combat the problem if it cannot change expectations of future inflation. Monetary policy is effective but often produces huge fiscal costs since real interest rates have to rise considerably. When the actual fiscal deficit increases the future expected inflation, tight monetary policy may generate a perverse effect fuelling the symptoms of the problem. Chapter five questions why ERBS that apparently are consistent may be subject to the capital inflows problem and eventually to balance of payments crises. Political factors are responsible of this situation. The chapter sets a model that resembles the Mexican political system. Actual government chooses its successor. The former has incentives to choose a future candidate with preferences for high inflation. People, forecasting this possibility, consumes more in periods of low inflation. That generates the capital inflows problem. Chapter six concludes.
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Chang, Michele M. "Crisis and credibility in the European monetary system /". Diss., Connect to a 24 p. preview or request complete full text in PDF format. Access restricted to UC IP addresses, 1998. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/ucsd/fullcit?p9902292.
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Vivès, Rémi. "Three essays on the role of expectations in business cycles". Thesis, Aix-Marseille, 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019AIXM0453.
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Cette thèse étudie le rôle des anticipations dans les cycles économiques en analysant trois types d’anticipations différentes. Dans un premier temps, je me concentre sur une explication théorique des cycles économiques générée par des changements d'anticipations qui se révèlent auto-réalisatrices. Ce chapitre contribue à améliorer un puzzle provenant de la littérature sunspot, soutenant ainsi une interprétation des cycles économiques basée sur les prophéties auto-réalisatrices. Dans un deuxième temps, j’analyse empiriquement comment les annonces de la banque centrale se propagent à l’économie via la modification des croyances des acteurs du marché. Ce chapitre montre que des annonces crédibles sur les futures politiques monétaires non conventionnelles peuvent être utilisées comme un instrument de coordination des anticipations dans un contexte de crise de la dette souveraine. Dans un troisième temps, je m'intéresse à un concept plus large d'anticipations et étudie le pouvoir prédictif du climat politique sur la tarification du risque souverain. Ce chapitre montre que le climat politique apporte un pouvoir prédictif supplémentaire aux spreads des obligations d'Etat, au-delà des déterminants traditionnels. Différentes méthodologies sont utilisées dans cette thèse, notamment des analyses théoriques et empiriques, du web scraping ainsi que des méthodes d'apprentissage automatique et d'analyse textuelle. Par ailleurs, j’exploite dans cette thèse des données innovantes provenant du réseau social Twitter. Tous mes résultats transmettent le même message : les anticipations comptent, tant pour la recherche en économie que pour l'élaboration de politiques économiquesIn this thesis, I investigate the role of expectations in business cycles by studying three different kinds of expectations. First, I focus on a theoretical explanation of business cycles generated by changes in expectations which turn out to be self-fulfilling. This chapter improves a puzzle from the sunspot literature, thereby giving more evidence towards an interpretation of business cycles based on self-fulfilling prophecies. Second, I empirically analyze the propagation mechanisms of central bank announcements through changes in market participants' beliefs. This chapter shows that credible announcements about future unconventional monetary policies can be used as a coordination device in a sovereign debt crisis framework. Third, I study a broader concept of expectations and investigate the predictive power of political climate on the pricing of sovereign risk. This chapter shows that political climate provides additional predictive power beyond the traditional determinants of sovereign bond spreads. In order to interrogate the role of expectations in business cycles from multiple angles, I use a variety of methodologies in this thesis, including theoretical and empirical analyses, web scraping, machine learning, and textual analysis. In addition, this thesis uses innovative data from the social media platform Twitter. Regardless of my methodology, all my results convey the same message: expectations matter, both for economic research and economically sound policy-making
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Alom, Bartroli Montserrat. "Les stratégies d'acteurs dans les collaborations scientifiques avec le Sud : chercheurs et agences de financement dans les sciences sociales". Thesis, Sorbonne Paris Cité, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018USPCB235.
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Au cours des dernières décennies la recherche scientifique a été marquée par une transformation des modes de financement. Autrefois financée plutôt sur des crédits récurrents, elle est aujourd'hui financée pour l'essentiel sur projets et par des appels à projets qui ont pour conséquence une compétition accrue. De plus, un certain nombre de politiques et de pratiques conduisent à définir un nombre limité de thématiques de recherche éligibles au financement. Ces évolutions, qui vont de pair avec l'essor des collaborations scientifiques internationales, ont entraîné des changements majeurs dans les communautés scientifiques, leurs activités et leurs productions en obligeant les chercheurs à rentrer dans une étroite relation avec les agences de financement. L'ancienne configuration mondiale de la recherche où un nombre réduit d'agences du Nord subventionnait des projets de recherche pour le développement du Sud a cédé face à la prolifération et la restructuration des agences de financement au Sud et au Nord. Sur la base de ces évolutions, nous nous sommes posés une double question: de quelle manière les chercheurs en sciences sociales mobilisent-ils les différents acteurs de la recherche (agences de financement, acteurs sociaux) dans le cadre de projets de recherche internationaux, depuis leur conception jusqu'à leur réalisation ? De quelle manière ces stratégies diffèrent-elles en fonction des modes organisationnels et des politiques des agences subventionnant les projets ? En nous appuyant sur la théorie de l'acteur-réseau de B. Latour et M. Callon, et notamment sur le concept d'« intéressement », nous examinons les stratégies de mobilisation des chercheurs participant à des projets de collaboration internationale en sciences sociales dans le cadre des opérations de traduction et des processus de production des connaissances caractérisant l'exercice de la recherche. Nous avons interviewé 59 chercheurs ayant participé à des projets financés par 3 agences de financement présentant des politiques de recherche et des modes de fonctionnement très différents : la Commission européenne (projets du 7ème PCRD), le Centre de Coordination de la Recherche (CCR) de la Fédération Internationale des Universités Catholiques, et le Centre de Recherches pour le Développement International (CRDI) du Canada. Premièrement, nous avons enquêté sur les stratégies des chercheurs pour obtenir des fonds pour des recherches internationales et sur leurs formes d'appropriation des cadres cognitifs des agences. Les choix des thématiques retenues ont été examinés au prisme de leur spécialisation, de leur appartenance disciplinaire, des résultats issus de projets précédents, de la politique de leur institution de rattachement, de leurs motivations profondes, de la réalité des phénomènes étudiés dans leur contexte, ou encore des ressources disponibles. Deuxièmement, nous nous sommes penchés sur les stratégies permettant d'intéresser des acteurs non-académiques, et sur les dispositifs faisant le lien entre la recherche et la société dans les processus de mise en démocratie des sciences. Nous avons ainsi identifié les démarches permettant aux chercheurs d'associer des acteurs sociaux et politiques à leurs recherches et de porter leurs résultats hors des cercles académiques. Notre recherche permet de montrer des stratégies qui suivent un processus cumulatif dans le temps comme celui évoqué dans la théorie des « cycles de crédibilité » de B. Latour et S. Woolgar. De plus, ces stratégies nous permettent d'interpréter finement les processus nécessaires pour la réalisation des projets, qui divergent considérablement selon les chercheurs et les agences, mais qui soulignent la capacité des chercheurs du Sud à se positionner en tant qu'acteurs à part entière (acteurs-réseau). Ceci nous amène également à réinterpréter les collaborations internationalesIn recent decades scientific research has been marked by a transformation of funding methods. Formerly financed mainly by core funding, what prevails now is project funding through calls for projects, which results in increased competition. In addition, a number of policies and practices lead to the definition of a limited number of research topics eligible for funding. These developments, which go hand in hand with the rise of international scientific collaborations, have led to major changes in scientific communities, their activities and their productions, forcing researchers to enter into a close relationship with funding agencies. The former global configuration of research where a small number of Northern agencies were subsidizing Southern "research for development" projects has given way to the proliferation and restructuring of funding agencies both in the South and the North. On the basis of these evolutions, we asked ourselves two main questions: in what way do researchers in the social sciences mobilize the different actors of research (funding agencies, social actors) in the framework of international research projects, from their design to their realization? How do these strategies differ according to the organizational modes and policies of the agencies funding the projects? Based on the actor-network theory of B. Latour and M. Callon, and particularly on the concept of "interessement", we examine the mobilization strategies of researchers involved in international collaborative projects in the social sciences, within the framework of translation operations and knowledge production processes that characterize research practice. We interviewed 59 researchers who participated in projects funded by 3 funding agencies with very different research policies and modes of operation: the European Commission (FP7 projects), the Center for Coordination of Research (CCR) of the International Federation of Catholic Universities, and Canada's International Development Research Center (IDRC). First, we investigated researchers' strategies to obtain funds for international research and their appropriation of agencies' cognitive frames. Topic choice was examined through their specialization, their disciplinary membership, the results of previous projects, the policy of their institution, their deep motivations, the reality of the phenomena studied in their context, or the resources available. Secondly, we looked at strategies to mobilize non-academics, and at the mechanisms linking research and society in the process of bringing the sciences into democracy. We have thus identified the approaches enabling researchers to associate social and political actors with their research and to bring their results out of academic circles. Our research shows strategies that follow a cumulative process over time, such as that evoked in B. Latour's and S. Woolgar's theory of "credibility cycles". In addition, these strategies allow us to interpret finely the processes leading to projects' realization, which diverge considerably according to the researchers and the agencies, but which underline the capacity of Southern researchers to position themselves as full-fledged actors (actor-networks). This also brings us to reinterpret international collaborations
Libros sobre el tema "Cycle of credibility"
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Vincent, Amy, Sead Alihodzic y Stephen Gale. Risk Management in Elections: A Guide for Electoral Management Bodies. Australian Electoral Commission and the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.31752/idea.2021.62.
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When electoral risks are not understood and addressed, they can undermine the credibility of the process and the results it yields. Electoral management bodies (EMBs) encounter numerous risks across all phases of the electoral cycle. They operate in environments that are increasingly complex and volatile and where factors such as technology, demographics, insecurity, inaccurate or incomplete information and natural calamities, create increasing uncertainty. The experiences of EMBs show that when formal risk management processes are successfully implemented, the benefits are profound. Greater risk awareness helps organizations to focus their resources on where they are most needed, thus achieving cost-effectiveness. Over the last decade it has been observed that EMBs are increasingly moving from informal to formal risk management processes. The purpose of this Guide is to lay out a set of practical steps for EMBs on how to establish or advance their risk management framework. The Guide’s chapters reflect the breadth of key considerations in the implementation process and offer basic resources to assist in the process.
Capítulos de libros sobre el tema "Cycle of credibility"
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Waller, Sandra y Jakob de Haan. "Credibility and Transparency of Central Banks: New Results Based on Ifo’s World Economic Survey". En Ifo Survey Data in Business Cycle and Monetary Policy Analysis, 203–23. Heidelberg: Physica-Verlag HD, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/3-7908-1605-1_9.
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Garavaglia, Elsa. "The Credibility Measure of Probabilistic Approaches in Life-Cycle Assessment of Complex Systems: A Discussion". En Materials with Complex Behaviour II, 619–36. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-22700-4_38.
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Orme, John D. "Credibility and Deterrence". En Deterrence, Reputation and Cold-War Cycles, 1–11. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 1992. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-12794-8_1.
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McCarten, P. S. "Bridge Risk Management: Credibility Gaps". En Maintenance, Safety, Risk, Management and Life-Cycle Performance of Bridges, 1177–84. CRC Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1201/9781315189390-159.
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Biondini, F., E. Garavaglia y D. Frangopol. "Credibility indicator for bridge service life prediction". En Bridge Maintenance, Safety, Management and Life-Cycle Optimization, 281. CRC Press, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1201/b10430-198.
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Helfaya, Akrum y Amr Kotb. "Environmental Reporting Quality". En Practice, Progress, and Proficiency in Sustainability, 625–54. IGI Global, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-5225-0440-5.ch027.
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The ultimate question of most business practitioners and policy makers now is how to reduce corporate negative environmental performance. One of the most effective ways is to help corporations to set the Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) of their sustainability performance and to report these KPIs to their stakeholders using corporate reporting cycle. To improve the environmental reporting quality, companies generally adopt and follow widely recognized reporting guidelines and third-party assurance standards, thus improving their environmental disclosure quality and trustworthiness in minds of their stakeholders. Over the last two decades a number of global initiatives (e.g. GRI, ISO, DEFRA, AA1000 APS, and ISAE 3000) have been developed for use in sustainability reporting. This chapter, therefore, aims to shed light on these credibility initiatives developed by governmental and non-governmental bodies to improve the quality of environmental reporting and to see the extent to which these credibility initiatives are different or similar.
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"Testing and Refining State-and Prediction-Based Theory". En Modeling Populations of Adaptive Individuals, editado por Steven F. Railsback y Bret C. Harvey, 123–32. Princeton University Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.23943/princeton/9780691195285.003.0009.
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This chapter highlights the importance of testing and refining the behavior theory in individual-based models (IBMs). Establishing a model's credibility is not the only reason to test theory for behavior. Doing so also offers a new and productive approach to theoretical ecology: a way to develop a toolbox of across-level theory useful for modeling populations of adaptive individuals. One can refer to testing and refining behavior sub-models as theory development, and one can do it by following the classic inductive reasoning cycle of posing, testing, and falsifying alternative hypotheses. The chapter provides a brief introduction to the pattern-oriented theory development process and presents several examples.
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Priest, Andrew. "Dealing with Defeat". En US Presidential Elections and Foreign Policy, 229–49. University Press of Kentucky, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.5810/kentucky/9780813169057.003.0011.
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The election of 1976 took place in very unusual circumstances. Yet, in many ways, the election campaign itself was fairly conventional. Much of the election cycle, however, also revolved around the issues of presidential authority and credibility, and, in these areas, foreign policy was crucial. That Gerald Ford came so close to snatching the election in the finals days and weeks of the campaign suggests that foreign policy could have made the difference and that the president’s refusal or inability to exploit Republican foreign policy positions and divisions between his policies and those of his opponents, Ronald Reagan for the nomination and Jimmy Carter for the election, hampered his ability to develop a winning campaign.
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Muller, Wolfgang C., Torbjorn Bergman y Gabriella Ilonszki. "Extending the Coalition Life-cycle Approach to Central Eastern Europe—An Introduction". En Coalition Governance in Central Eastern Europe, 1–59. Oxford University Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198844372.003.0001.
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This chapter makes the case for studying coalition politics in Central Eastern Europe (CEE). A focus on CEE not only fills a research gap in terms of geographic coverage but also opens up the opportunity of out-of-sample theory testing, mitigating the notorious large-p-small-N problem in coalition research, and extending the theoretical framework by incorporating explanatory factors particularly relevant in CEE countries. Within the coalition life-cycle coalition governance—its central stage between coalition formation and termination—is the stage which constitutes the greatest lacuna in coalition research. The main problem of coalition governance is the multi-party nature of governments, with the coalition parties often having conflicting policy preferences, desiring the same offices as their partners, and competing with each other in the next elections. This constellation may lead to conflict within and between the coalition parties, cabinet instability, and policy stalemate. Coalition builders can contain these dangers by choosing the right partners, dividing the spoils wisely, and by employing various mechanisms to manage intra-party politics and, in particular, inter-party relations (giving credibility to commitments, providing mutual information, and making decisions jointly). The resulting modes of coalition governance take three ideal-typical forms: the Ministerial Government Model, the Coalition Compromise Model, and the Dominant Prime Minister Model. Turning to the coalition-cycle in CEE, the chapter explains how the country chapters are organized, which research questions they ask, and how this relates to the extant literature on CEE coalition politics. The chapter concludes with highlighting some of the books’ main findings.
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Brown, Noel. "On the Borders: Children’s Horror and Indiewood Animation". En Contemporary Hollywood Animation, 144–77. Edinburgh University Press, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.3366/edinburgh/9781474410564.003.0005.
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This chapter focuses on a recent tradition of Hollywood animated films which mine the intersection between the ‘mainstream’ and ‘cult’ firmaments. While there is a long history of experimental or leftfield animation in the United States, the films discussed here are characterised by a duality specific to post-1990s Hollywood cinema: they target a mass market while simultaneously addressing audiences that may reject mainstream animation in its more conventional iterations. The first half of this chapter examines the ‘children’s horror film’, a cycle that presents grotesque imagery with sufficient wit to appeal to leftfield sensibilities while still delivering the pleasing emotive content associated with mainstream family entertainment. The second half discusses ‘indiewood animation’ films, which often exhibit a comparatively cerebral patented kookiness and trippy, offbeat humour. Collectively, the ‘children’s horror’ and ‘indiewood’ animated films represent a compromise between the perceived requirements of mass audiences and the promise of additional credibility and cachet associated with cult cinema.
Actas de conferencias sobre el tema "Cycle of credibility"
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Cluever, Joseph, Thomas Esselman y Sam Harvey. "Bayesian Analysis of Expert Elicitation Responses for Life Cycle Management Replacement Probability Estimates". En ASME 2017 Pressure Vessels and Piping Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/pvp2017-65408.
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In 2014, the Integrated Life Cycle Management (ILCM) computer code was developed through collaboration between the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and Électricité de France (EDF) to provide a standard methodology to support effective decision making for the long-term management of selected station assets. In order for the ILCM program to become a standard tool in the industry, additional work was needed in the development of a Likelihood of Replacement (LoR) calculator. The LoR calculator estimates the likelihood that a component will have to be replaced due to failure or reasons other than failure, such as high maintenance cost, inability to maintain, obsolescence, and other similar reasons. Expert elicitation was chosen as the method of gathering data and opinions on component replacement probabilities. The majority of expert elicitation techniques consist of experts giving opinions on the probability of replacement at various points in time, from which a reliability curve can be calculated. Furthermore, any failure or replacement data is subjectively incorporated in to the expert’s opinion. The present work uses Bayesian analysis to provide an objective method for statistically combining expert opinion with failure and replacement data. This paper also describes the process of extracting a Weibull LoR curve from expert’s opinions and reported failures and replacements. The expert’s work history and answer confidence is used to assign uncertainty in their answers and calculate 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile credibility Weibull curves for the probability of replacement.
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Zhou, Zhenxu, Hao Nie, Chunling Dong y Qin Zhang. "Safety Analysis Model of DUCG Based on FMEA/FTA". En 2018 26th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/icone26-81484.
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Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a useful tool to find possible flaws, to reduce cost and to shorten research cycle in complex industrial systems. Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) has gained credibility over the past years, not only in nuclear industry, but also in other industries like aerospace, petrochemical, and weapon. Both FMEA and FTA are effective techniques in safety analysis, but there are still many uncertain factors in them that are not well addressed until now. This paper combines FMEA and FTA based on Dynamic Uncertain Causality Graph (DUCG) to solve this issue. Firstly, the FMEA model is mapped into a corresponding DUCG graph. Secondly, FTA model is mapped into a corresponding DUCG graph. Thirdly, combine the above DUCG graphs. Finally, users can modify the combined DUCG graph and calculations are made. This paper bridges the gap between FMEA and FTA by combining the two methods using DUCG. And additional modeling power and analytical power can be achieved with the advantages of the combined DUCG safety analysis model and its inference algorithm. This method can also promote the application of DUCG in the system reliability and safety analysis. An example is used to illustrate this method.
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V. Knight, Linda y Theresa A. Steinbach. "Selecting an Appropriate Publication Outlet: A Comprehensive Model of Journal Selection Criteria for Researchers in a Broad Range of Academic Disciplines". En InSITE 2008: Informing Science + IT Education Conference. Informing Science Institute, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.28945/3289.
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Building upon previously published articles from 18 different disciplines, this research delves into the area of how academics inform one another, addressing the issue of how academic scholars can determine the optimum journal for submission of their research. A comprehensive model of the journal selection process is developed, including 39 detailed considerations spread over three major categories: likelihood of timely acceptance; potential impact of the manuscript (journal credibility, prestige, visibility); and philosophical and ethical issues. Specific guidelines are given for evaluating such concepts as manuscript-journal “fit,” journal prestige, and journal visibility. The graphical model developed here assists authors in comparing journal alternatives and provides new researchers with insights into how the three primary journal selection categories are weighed and balanced. In addition, less commonly understood concepts, such as Time to Publication, Review Cycle Time Delay, and Publication Time Delay, are identified and named, and their relationships are defined in this article. On a broader level, this research demonstrates that scholars across disciplines have substantial common interests with respect to journal publishing, that the ties that unite academics seeking to publish are strong, and that the potential for future crossdisciplinary research in the area of how academics inform one another is correspondingly robust.
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Marcal, Pedro V. y Jeffrey T. Fong. "Continuous NDE Monitoring via Web Technology". En ASME 2008 Pressure Vessels and Piping Conference. ASMEDC, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/pvp2008-61574.
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For safe operation of high-consequence structures such as airplanes, ships, trains, chemical plants, electricity-generating units, nuclear reactors, oil and gas pipelines, and pressure vessels, periodic inspection using nondestructive evaluation (NDE) technology and a deterministic approach to modeling fatigue crack growth has been mandated by government in the energy and transportation sectors of the nation’s economy since the 1970s. Recent advances in web-based computing, direct measurement-based NDE, and a stochastic approach to remaining fatigue life cycle prediction model have made it possible to not only enhance the credibility of fatigue life prediction but also shorten the turn-around time between field-based NDE and office-based modeling, analysis, verification and integrity assessment back to the field for decision making. To illustrate this new concept in preventing structural failure and extending useful life of high-consequence systems, we first recount a lesson learned in the history of the deployment of the U.S. nuclear submarine fleet, where the emphasis was on the continuous monitoring of 100% of pipe and vessel welds from their initial placement to the discovery of tangible signs of fatigue damage way before the onset of service disruption. Using two crack length vs. fatigue life cycle plots, one being based on the deterministic and the other a stochastic model, we summarize the contrast between the two models in their ability to deliver a credible prediction of the remaining fatigue life cycle based on a periodic or continuous inspection mode. In conjunction with that summary, we answer an important question in designing an NDE-based inspection strategy, namely, whether the inspection should be periodic or continuous. We show in this paper that the key to the success of a continuous monitoring system for aging structure is an NDE capability in measuring not only the initial crack length and the initial crack growth rate, but also their standard deviations. We conclude with a remark that a continuous direct-measurement-based NDE inspection system, when coupled with a finite element modeling and analysis capability, is capable of monitoring not only surface but also subsurface cracks.
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Tindall, Michelle, Akin Keskin y Andrew Layton. "Industrial Challenges in Large Thermally Enabled Structural Whole Engine Models". En ASME Turbo Expo 2020: Turbomachinery Technical Conference and Exposition. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/gt2020-15207.
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Abstract Understanding gas turbine design at a system level presents a difficult challenge. Accurate predictions of gas turbine behaviour before whole engine tests are completed are invaluable in preventing costly design changes in the latter stages of the design life cycle. In this study a high fidelity whole engine model has been built — specifically, a thermally enabled structural model. This model can predict component displacements up to system level interactions across the whole engine. Knowledge from such a model can feed into multiple design areas contributing to performance, component design and structural understanding but can also be used to influence physical testing. There are clear benefits in building such high fidelity models but also many challenges that need to be addressed, namely solver type, geometry interrogation, meshing, solver capability, computational power and finally, processing and validation of output data. Additionally, different applications have been used for thermal and structural modelling in order to utilise best capabilities in thermal and contact modelling but also enable scalability on high performance computing. However, utilising two different solvers involves meshes being tailored for each solver type but also introduces additional complexity of transferring information between the two models used. The paper will discuss the challenges and analysis methodologies used to thermally solve the whole engine cycle, the mapping procedure to translate thermal data to a structural model, and the approach taken to solve the very large simulation model explicitly at a chosen condition to a pseudo-steady state. In order to validate the simulation results, a vast amount of time has been spent to compare the results to existing test data. As model validation is a significant step in simulation to gain credibility of the results, a comparison of the predicted component displacements will be shown to X-ray data from a whole engine test. Results and limitations of this testing capability such as influence of engine vibration, shutter speed and noise in the data will be discussed and recommendations provided to improve accuracy of the results.
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DeGiorgi, Virginia G. y M. A. Siddiq Qidwai. "An Analysis of Composite Piezoelectric Actuators Incorporating Nonlinear Material Behavior". En ASME 2010 Conference on Smart Materials, Adaptive Structures and Intelligent Systems. ASMEDC, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/smasis2010-3628.
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Piezoelectric actuators of various composite designs have been proposed during the last few years including extension and shear bimorphs, tubular composites and multilayered actuators. These designs exploit the ability to define the actuation direction by varying the alignment between poling direction and applied electric field. Considerable research effort has been put to accurately model these actuators in order to attain predictive capability. The common factor in almost all of these studies is the assumption that the poled material behaves linearly under applied electric field. However, this assumption may only be accurate for the limited case of a homogenous actuator under relatively unconstrained environment, such as that of simply supported boundary conditions. In the case of composite structures, the actuation can potentially be restricted by non-actuating constituents resulting in multi-dimensional loading states, which may cause domain switching. The same argument can be made for most boundary conditions that are imposed in practical applications, such as when the actuator is clamped or fixed. Another point of concern is the presence of discontinuities and minor defects in the actuator. Both of these would promote non-uniform electric field causing domain switching, and hence, unexpected actuator output. Unless proven otherwise, these concerns directly affect the credibility of life cycle estimates based upon linear models. In this paper linear and nonlinear material models will be used to determine actuator performance using an established constitutive model in a commercial finite element code. Actuator performance for both material cases will be calculated and compared with existing analytical predictions under the same set of boundary conditions.
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Pai, Shantaram S. y David S. Riha. "Model Verification and Validation Concepts for a Probabilistic Fracture Assessment Model to Predict Cracking of Knife Edge Seals in the Space Shuttle Main Engine High Pressure Oxidizer". En ASME Turbo Expo 2012: Turbine Technical Conference and Exposition. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/gt2012-70132.
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Physics-based models are routinely used to predict the performance of engineered systems to make decisions such as when to retire system components, how to extend the life of an aging system, or if a new design will be safe or available. Model verification and validation (V&V) is a process to establish credibility in model predictions. Ideally, carefully controlled validation experiments will be designed and performed to validate models or submodels. In reality, time and cost constraints limit experiments and even model development. This paper describes elements of model V&V during the development and application of a probabilistic fracture assessment model to predict cracking in space shuttle main engine high-pressure oxidizer turbopump knife-edge seals. The objective of this effort was to assess the probability of initiating and growing a crack to a specified failure length in specific flight units for different usage and inspection scenarios. The probabilistic fracture assessment model developed in this investigation combined a series of submodels describing the usage, temperature history, flutter tendencies, tooth stresses and numbers of cycles, fatigue cracking, nondestructive inspection, and finally the probability of failure. The analysis accounted for unit-to-unit variations in temperature, flutter limit state, flutter stress magnitude, and fatigue life properties. The investigation focused on the calculation of relative risk rather than absolute risk between the usage scenarios. Verification predictions were first performed for three units with known usage and cracking histories to establish credibility in the model predictions. Then, numerous predictions were performed for an assortment of operating units that had flown recently or that were projected for future flights. Calculations were performed using two NASA-developed software tools: NESSUS® for the probabilistic analysis, and NASGRO® for the fracture mechanics analysis. The goal of these predictions was to provide additional information to guide decisions on the potential of reusing existing and installed units prior to the new design certification.