Tesis sobre el tema "Diagnostic Proportions"

Purpose of this study was to propose a simple and effective method for cognitive diagnosis assessment (CDA) without heavy computational demand using Bayesian inference for binomial proportion (BIBP). In real data studies, BIBP was applied to a test data using two different item designs: four and ten attributes. Also, the BIBP method was compared with DINA and LCDM in the diagnosis result using the same four-attribute data set. There were slight differences in the attribute mastery probability estimate among the three model (DINA, LCDM, BIBP), which could result in different attribute mastery pattern. In Simulation studies, it was found that the general accuracy of the BIBP method in the true parameter estimation was relatively high. The DINA estimation showed slightly higher overall correct classification rate but the bigger overall biases and estimation errors than the BIBP estimation. The three simulation variables (Attribute Correlation, Attribute Difficulty, and Sample Size) showed impacts on the parameter estimations of both models. However, they affected differently the two models: Harder attributes showed the higher accuracy of attribute mastery classification in the BIBP estimation while easier attributes was associated with the higher accuracy of the DINA estimation. In conclusion, BIBP appears an effective method for CDA with the advantage of easy and fast computation and a relatively high accuracy of parameter estimation.

O fator de simultaneidade é fundamental no planejamento de redes de distribuição de gás natural. Trata-se de um multiplicador entre 0 e 1 que ajusta o consumo total teórico de um número de aparelhos de utilização em condições reais. Em 2005 o Instituto de Pesquisas Tecnológicas (IPT) e a Companhia de Gás de São Paulo (COMGÁS) realizaram um estudo no qual determinou-se o fator de simultaneidade em um conjunto de edificações residenciais. Um modelo de regressão foi proposto para expressar o fator de simultaneidade em termos da potência total instalada. O modelo ajustado pode ser utilizado para predizer o fator de simultaneidade em novas edificações. O modelo em questão é um modelo de regressão linear normal no qual a variável resposta é o logaritmo do fator de simultaneidade. Nesta dissertação, o objetivo é investigar outras possibilidades de modelos de regressão adequados aos dados obtidos pelo IPT e pela COMGÁS. Especial atenção é dada ao modelo de regressão beta proposto por Ferrari e Cribari-Neto (Journal of Applied Statistics, 2004) por possuir vantagens sobre o modelo de regressão linear normal. O modelo de regressão beta assume que, dadas as covariáveis, a variável resposta possui distribuição beta, sendo adequado para modelar dados observados no intervalo unitário. Desta forma, a transformação na variável resposta - o fator de simultaneidade - é desnecessária. Além disso, é proposta uma nova abordagem para a predição do fator de simultaneidade, diferente de todas as abordagens pesquisadas na literatura, utilizando a técnica de bootstrap.
The simultaneity factor is fundamental in planning gas distribution networks. It is a multiplicator between 0 and 1 that adjusts the theoretical total consumption of a number of devices to realistic conditions. In 2005, the Instituto de Pesquisas Tecnológicas (IPT) and the Companhia de Gás de São Paulo (COMGÁS) performed a study in which the simultaneity factor of gas consumption in a set of residential buildings have been determined. A regression model was proposed to express the simultaneity factor in terms of the total power of installed equipment. The fitted model can be used to predict the simultaneity factor in new buildings. The model they proposed is a normal linear regression model in which the response variable is the logarithm of the simultaneity factor. In the present dissertation, our aim is to investigate other possible regression models suitable to the data obtained by IPT and CONGÁS. Emphasis is given to the beta regression model proposed by Ferrari and Cribari-Neto (Journal of Applied Statistics, 2004) which has a number of advantages over normal linear regression models. The beta regression model assumes that, given the covariates, the response variable has a beta distribution, which is adequate to model data observed in the unit interval. Therefore, no transformation in the response variable, the simultaneity factor, is needed. Additionally, we present a new approach for the prediction of the simultaneity factor, that is different from all the approaches shown in the literature, using the bootstrap technique.

Purpose: The primary purpose of this research study was to assess the degree of agreement between simple anthropometric measurements (i.e. body mass index, waist circumference, hip circumference, and waist-to-hip ratio) and the measures of regional adiposity, with a primary focus on the androidlgynoid ratio, assessed using dual energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA). This secondary purpose of the study was to identify any significant correlations between the measures of regional adiposity, physical activity, and cardiovascular risk factors. Methods: Forty-eight subjects, 19 males (48.7 ± 16.9 years) and 29 females (43.6 ± 16.2 years), volunteered to participate in this study. Subjects underwent laboratory testing compromised of resting blood pressure, blood lipid analysis, waist & hip circumference, total body DXA scan, and a one week physical activity assessment. Results: Significant correlations were observed between body mass index and region body fat % (r = 0.84, 0.79), waist circumference and android fat % (r = 0.79, 0.75), and waist-to-hip ratio and androidlgynoid ratio (r = 0.72, 0.61) for men and women, respectively. Fasting insulin was correlated with region body fat %, android body fat %, trunk body fat %, and the android/gynoid ratio. The android/gynoid ratio was correlated with high density lipoproteins, very low density lipoproteins, triglycerides, and fasting glucose. There was a statistically significant negative relationship observed between average steps per day and body mass index, waist circumference, hip circumference, region body fat %, android body fat %, and trunk body fat %. Conclusions: This study found that there are strong relationships between simple anthropometric measures and regional body fat measures from the DXA. According to the data in the present study, body mass index, waist circumference, and waist-to-hip ratio provide simple yet sensitive methods for the estimation of regional body fat in Caucasian males and females. In addition, this study found significant correlations between measures of the blood lipid profile, physical activity, and both simple anthropometric and DXA measures of regional body fat. Key words: android fat, body mass index, dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry, gynoid fat, obesity, waist circumference.
School of Physical Education, Sport, and Exercise Science

The number of meta-analysis of diagnostic studies is increasing and the models which deal with the summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) have become quite popular. Many of these models have reached considerable statistical complexity, required expertise and knowledge. Here" a model named the proportional hazard model (PHM) is developed. The PHM model has a simple form and is easy to interpret. There is only one parameter of interest 0, which is called the diagnostic accuracy and has the interpretation that the smaller 0 is, the higher the diagnostic accuracy.

Thesis (MScEng)--Stellenbosch University, 2012.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Physical Asset Management (PAM) is becoming a greater concern for companies in industry today. The widely accepted British Standards Institutes’ specification for optimized management of physical assets and infrastructure is PAS55. According to PAS55, PAM is the “systematic and co-ordinated activities and practices through which an organization optimally manages its physical assets, and their associated performance, risks and expenditures over their life cycle for the purpose of achieving its organizational strategic plan”. One key performance area of PAM is Asset Care Plans (ACP). These plans are maintenance strategies which improve or ensure acceptable asset reliability and performance during its useful life. Maintenance strategies such as Condition Based Maintenance (CBM) acts upon Condition Monitoring (CM) data, disregarding the previous failure histories of an asset. Other maintenance strategies, such as Usage Based Maintenance (UBM), is based on previous failure histories, and does not consider CM data. Regression models make use of both CM data and previous failure histories to develop a model which represents the underlying failure behaviour of the asset under study. These models can be of high value in ACP development due to the fact that Residual Useful Life (RUL) can be estimated and/or the long term life cycle cost can be optimized. The objective of this thesis was to model historical failure data and CM data well enough so that RUL or optimized preventive maintenance instant estimations can be made. These estimates were used in decision models to develop maintenance schedules, i.e. ACPs. Several regression models were evaluated to determine the most suitable model to achieve the objectives of this thesis. The model found to be most suitable for this research project was the Proportional Hazards Model (PHM). A comprehensive investigation on the PHM was undertaken focussing on the mathematics and the practical implementation thereof. Data obtained from the South African mining industry was modelled with the Weibull PHM. It was found that the developed model produced estimates which were accurate representations of reality. These findings provide an exciting basis for the development of futureWeibull PHMs that could result in huge maintenance cost savings and reduced failure occurrences.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Fisiese Bate Bestuur (FBB) is besig om ’n groter bekommernis vir maatskappye in die bedryf te word. Die Britse Standaarde Instituut se spesifikasie vir optimale bestuur van fisiese bates en infrastruktuur is PAS55. Volgens PAS55 is FBB die “sistematiese en gekoördineerde aktiwiteite en praktyke wat deur ’n organisasie optimaal sy fisiese bates, hul verwante prestasie, risiko’s en uitgawes vir die doel van die bereiking van sy organisatoriese strategiese plan beheer oor hul volle lewensiklus te bestuur”. Een Sleutel Fokus Area (SFA) van FBB is Bate Versorgings Plan (BVP) ontwikkeling. Hierdie is onderhouds strategieë wat bate betroubaarheid verbeter of verseker tydens die volle bruikbare lewe van die bate. Een onderhoud strategie is Toestands Gebasseeerde Onderhoud (TGO) wat besluite baseer op Toestand Monitering (TM) informasie maar neem nie die vorige falingsgeskiedenis van die bate in ag nie. Ander onderhoud strategieë soos Gebruik Gebasseerde Onderhoud (GGO) is gebaseer op historiese falingsdata maar neem nie TM inligting in ag nie. Regressiemodelle neem beide TM data en historiese falings geskiedenis data in ag ten einde die onderliggende falings gedrag van die gegewe bate te verteenwoordig. Hierdie modelle kan baie nuttig wees vir BVP ontwikkeling te danke aan die feit dat Bruikbare Oorblywende Lewe (BOL) geskat kan word en/of die langtermyn lewenssilus koste geoptimeer kan word. Die doelwit van hierdie tesis was om historiese falingsdata en TT data goed genoeg te modelleer sodat BOL of optimale langtermyn lewensiklus kostes bepaal kan word om opgeneem te word in BVP ontwikkeling. Hierdie bepalings word dan gebruik in besluitnemings modelle wat gebruik kan word om onderhoud skedules op te stel, d.w.s. om ’n BVP te ontwikkel. Verskeie regressiemodelle was geëvalueer om die regte model te vind waarmee die doel van hierdie tesis te bereik kan word. Die mees geskikte model vir die navorsingsprojek was die Proporsionele Gevaarkoers Model (PGM). ’n Omvattende ondersoek oor die PGM is onderneem wat fokus op die wiskunde en die praktiese implementering daarvan. Data is van die Suid-Afrikaanse mynbedryf verkry en is gemodelleer met behulp van die Weibull PGM. Dit was bevind dat die ontwikkelde model resultate geproduseer het wat ’n akkurate verteenwoordinging van realiteit is. Hierdie bevindinge bied ’n opwindende basis vir die ontwikkeling van toekomstige Weibull Proporsionele Gevaarkoers Modelle wat kan lei tot groot onderhoudskoste besparings en minder onverwagte falings.

A Thesis submitted to The University of Arizona College of Medicine - Phoenix in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Medicine.
Osteochondritis dissecans is a rare condition which can cause disabling knee pain in adolescents. Treatment and prognosis hinges upon the stage of the lesion and early detection is paramount 1‐3. Until recently, epidemiologic information regarding OCD in adolescents was unavailable. However in 2013 Kessler et al. demonstrated an incidence of 9.5/100,000 in the general adolescent population 4. Chief complains from patients with OCD usually localize pain to the knee joint line, but less commonly, patients may complain of anterior knee pain. This retrospective chart review looked at the amount of OCD diagnoses in adolescents specifically complaining of anterior knee pain without causative trauma in the years 2009 and 2010 at a major children’s hospital. It was noted that 7.5% of children with this presentation had a diagnosis of OCD. This number was over three orders of magnitude higher than the incidence seen in the general adolescent population as established by Kessler and may support the use of screening radiographs in this subset of patients to detect OCD in its early stages.

Les convertisseurs DC-DC suscitent un intérêt considérable en raison de leur puissance élevée et de leurs bonnes performances. Ils sont particulièrement utiles dans les systèmes multisources de production d'énergie électrique. Toutefois, en raison du grand nombre de composants sensibles utilisés dans ces circuits et comprenant des semi-conducteurs de puissance, des bobines et des condensateurs, une probabilité non négligeable de défaillance des composants doit être prise en compte. Cette thèse considère l'un des convertisseurs DC-DC les plus prometteurs - le convertisseur ZVS à pont isolé de type Buck. Une approche en deux étapes est présentée pour détecter et isoler les défauts en circuit ouvert dans les semi-conducteurs de puissance des convertisseurs DC-DC. La première étape concerne la détection et la localisation des défauts dans un convertisseur donne. La seconde étape concerne sur les systèmes munis de plusieurs convertisseurs DC-DC. Les méthodes proposées sont basées sur les réseaux Bayesiens (BBN). Les signaux utilisés dans ces méthodes sont ceux des entrées de mesure du système de commande et aucune mesure supplémentaire n'est requise. Un convertisseur expérimental ZVS à pont isolé de type Buck a été conçu et construit pour valider la détection et la localisation des défauts Sur un seul convertisseur. Ces méthodes peuvent être étendues à d'autres types de convertisseurs DC-DC
DC-DC converters have received significant interest recently as a result of their high power capabilities and good power quality. They are of particular interest in systems with multiple sources of energy. However due to the large number of sensitive components including power semiconductor devices, coils, and capacitors used in such circuits there is a high likelihood of component failure. This thesis considers one of the most promising DC-DC converters—the ZVS full bridge isolated Buck converter. An approach with two stages is presented to detect and isolate opencircuit faults in the power semiconductor devices in systems with DC-DC converters. The first stage is the fault detection and isolation for a single DC-DC converter, while the second stage works on a system with multiple DC-DC converters. The proposed methods are based on Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). The signals used in the proposed methods are already available as measurement inputs to control system and no additional measurements are required. An experimental ZVS full bridge isolated Buck converter has been designed and built to validate the fault detection and isolation method on a single converter. The methods can be used with other DC-DC converter typologies employing similar analysis and principals

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
Tese (Doutoramento)
IPEN/T
Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares - IPEN/CNEN-SP
FAPESP:01/06837-2

O objetivo deste trabalho foi analisar as características morfológicas da maxila e dos incisivos centrais superiores em relação às dimensões e posicionamento de ambos e verificar as inter-relações entre as variáveis obtidas. A amostra foi constituída de 32 telerradiografias em norma frontal, 32 em norma lateral e 32 modelos ortodônticos em gesso de 32 indivíduos leucodermas, de ambos os gêneros, na faixa etária de 12 anos completos a 17 anos e 1 mês, na dentição permanente, portadores de oclusão dentária normal, residentes na cidade de São Paulo, sem tratamento ortodôntico e todos filhos de brasileiros. Toda amostra foi escaneada e digitalizada, e os dados gerados foram em seguida exportados para programas de análises computadorizados nos quais foram definidas grandezas lineares e angulares diretamente sobre a amostra digitalizada. Os valores obtidos foram repetidos, pelo mesmo operador, com um intervalo mínimo de 15 dias entre as medidas com o objetivo de avaliar o erro do método. Os resultados mostraram compatibilidade com as estimativas de erros operacionais. Inicialmente cada exame foi estudado separadamente e num segundo momento analisadas as diferenças entre os gêneros e os dados correlacionados. Após análise estatística e interpretação dos resultados verificou-se na telerradiografia lateral, que a posição do incisivo central superior pode ser determinada de acordo com as variações anatômicas da maxila observadas no sentido ântero-posterior estando o ápice relacionado com a crista nasal da maxila e a borda incisal e cervical com a espinha nasal anterior. No estudo da telerradiografia frontal, encontrou-se resultados semelhantes, na largura da maxila, aos padrões de normalidade. Na avaliação dos modelos ortodônticos digitalizados, verificou-se a influência dos planos de referência na determinação da inclinação vestíbulo-lingual da face vestibular dos incisivos centrais superiores. Foram observadas pequenas diferenças entre algumas grandezas, quando os gêneros foram comparados. Nesta pesquisa, foram correlacionados os dados obtidos nos exames complementares e encontrou-se diversas associações estatisticamente significativas entre as grandezas esqueléticas e dentárias confirmando a tendência de proporcionalidade. Todas estas foram submetidas à análise de regressão linear que gerou equações das variações. Com a finalidade de contribuir ao diagnóstico e planejamento, pode-se afirmar que a posição e dimensão mésio-distal dos incisivos centrais superiores podem ser determinadas individualmente a partir das grandezas intrínsecas da maxila.
The objective of this work was to analyze the morphological characteristics of the maxilla and the upper central incisors in relation to the dimensions and positioning of both and to verify the inter relations between the obtained variables. The sample was made up of 32 posteroanterior radiographs (PA), 32 lateral head radiographs and 32 orthodontic models in plaster of 32 white individuals of both genders in the age group of completed 12 years to 17 years and one month, with permanent dentition and normal dental occlusion, residing in Sao Paulo City, who have Brazilian parents and have not had orthodontic treatment. All samples were scanned and digitalized, and the generated data were exported to computerized analysis programs, in which linear and angular values were defined directly over the digitalized sample. The obtained values were repeated, by the same operator, with a minimum interval of 15 days between measurements with the objective of evaluate the error in the method. The results showed compatibility with the estimates of operational errors. Initially every exam was studied separately and in a second moment the differences between genders and the correlated data were analyzed. After the statistical analysis and the interpretation of the results, it was verified in the lateral head radiographs, that the position of the upper central incisor can be determined according to the anatomic variations of the maxilla observed in the anteropoterior position, the apex being related to the nasal crest of the maxilla and the incisal and cervical edge being related to the anterior nasal spine. In the study of posteroanterior head radiographs, it was found similar results to the normality patterns, in the width of the maxilla. In the evaluation of the digitalized orthodontic models, the influence of planes of reference was verified in the determination of the labiobuccal inclination of labial surface of the upper central incisors. Small differences between some values were observed, when genders were compared. In this research, the obtained data in the complementary exams were correlated and found several statistically significant associations between dental and skeletal values, confirming the tendency of proportionality. All these associations were submitted to the analysis of linear regression which produced equations of variation. With the purpose of contributing to the diagnosis and planning can be affirmed that the position and mesiodistal dimension of the upper central incisors can be individually determined starting from the intrinsic values of the maxilla.

Many breast cancer diagnoses and second cancers are associated with BRCA gene mutations. Early detection of cancer is necessary to improve health outcomes, particularly with second cancers. Little is known about the influence of risk factors on time to diagnosis of second primary cancers after diagnosis with BRCA-related breast cancer. The purpose of this cohort study was to examine the risk of diagnosis of second primary cancers among women diagnosed with breast cancer after adjusting for BRCA status, age, and ethnicity. The study was guided by the empirical evidence supporting the mechanism of action in the mutation of BRCA leading to the development of cancer. Composite endpoint was used to define second primary cancer occurrences, and Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to compare the median time-to-event among comparison groups and BRCA gene mutation status. Cox proportional hazards was used to examine the relationships between age at diagnosis, ethnicity, BRCA gene mutation status, and diagnosis of a second primary cancer. The overall median time to event for diagnosis of second primary cancers was 14 years. The hazard ratios for BRCA2 = 1.47, 95% CI [1.03 - 2.11], White = 1.511, 95% CI [1.18 - 1.94], and American Indian/Hawaiian = 1.424, 95% CI [1.12 -1.81] showing positive significant associations between BRCA2 mutation status and risk of diagnosis of second primary colorectal, endometrial, cervical, kidney, thyroid, and bladder cancers. Data on risk factors for development of second cancers would allow for identification of appropriate and timely screening procedures, determining the best course of action for prevention and treatment, and improving quality of life among breast cancer survivors.

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The purpose of this research was to study some facial analysis used in orthodontic diagnosis and to verify the agreement between lateral and frontal views in the evaluation of the face attractiveness done by lay and professional groups, the agreement between these groups in the evaluation of the face attractiveness on both lateral and frontal views, as well as to verify the association between face attractiveness and Facial Golden Proportion, face attractiveness and Facial Pattern and between Facial Pattern and Facial Golden Proportion. Two hundred and eight standardized facial photographs (104 in lateral view and 104 in frontal view) of a hundred and four randomly chosen individuals were used. The pictures were first classified in pleasant , acceptable and not pleasant by the Orthodontics and Layman groups. Then Facial Golden Proportion measurements were made in lateral and frontal views by means of a computerized program and the individuals were classified on their Facial Pattern by its lateral aspect. After statistical analysis, it was noted that there was no agreement between groups and views in the facial attractiveness classification, as well as in the association between Golden Proportion measurements and facial attractiveness or Facial Pattern. Considering Facial Pattern and attractiveness, there was strong association in the lateral view, however in the frontal view there was no association, for both observers groups. Key words: Orthodontics; diagnosis; Facial analysis; photograph; Golden Proportion.
O propósito desta pesquisa foi estudar algumas análises faciais utilizadas para diagnóstico ortodôntico e verificar a concordância entre norma lateral e frontal na avaliação da agradabilidade facial para os grupos leigos e profissionais, a concordância entre estes grupos na avaliação da agradabilidade facial nas normas lateral e frontal, bem como verificar a associação entre agradabilidade facial e Proporção Áurea, agradabilidade facial e Padrão Facial e entre Padrão Facial e Proporção Áurea. Utilizou-se 208 fotografias faciais padronizadas (104 laterais e 104 frontais) de 104 indivíduos escolhidos aleatoriamente, que primeiramente foram classificadas em agradável , aceitável e desagradável por dois grupos distintos: grupo Ortodontia e grupo Leigos . As fotografias laterais e frontais foram submetidas a medidas de Proporção Áurea Facial por meio de programa computadorizado e os indivíduos foram classificados quanto ao Padrão Facial pelo seu aspecto lateral. Após análise estatística, verificou-se que não houve concordância entre as variáveis da avaliação de agradabilidade estudadas, bem como não houve associação entre Proporção Áurea com agradabilidade facial ou com Padrão Facial. Entre agradabilidade facial e Padrão Facial, observou-se para a norma lateral associação fortemente positiva, porém para a frontal não houve associação para ambos os grupos de avaliadores.

碩士
國立臺中教育大學
數學教育學系在職進修教學碩士學位班
99
Abstract In this research, the two-tier diagnostic test of “Ratio, Proportion and Direct Proportion” unit was developed using knowledge structure, and Bayesian network was integrated to establish the computerized two-tier diagnostic test later. Finally, the effectiveness of paper-and-pencil two-tier diagnostic test and computerized two-tier diagnostic test were evaluated. There were 285 students participating in the paper-and-pencil two-tier diagnostic test. The results of test were used to correct two-tier multiple choice items, establishing the reliability and validity of the test, and combined students’ responses in two-tier test with three different Bayesian modules to assess the effectiveness of the combined diagnosis models. Next, the optimal combined diagnosis model was used to construct the computerized two-tier diagnostic test. The computerized version of two-tier test was administered to 303 sixth grade students from Taichung County, Taichung City and Nantou County. The research results were shown below: 1. The Cronbach α of the computerized two-tier test was 0.76, it was better than the computerized one-tier test with the Cronbach α was 0. 71. 2. The combined diagnosis model that integrating two-tier test with Bayesian network could effectively increase the diagnostic accuracy. 3. In the paper-and-pencil two-tier diagnostic test, combining binary scoring in the two-tier joint judgment result to Bayesian network model got better diagnosis result. 4. In the computerized two-tier diagnostic test, combining binary scoring in the two-tier joint judgment result to Bayesian network model also got better diagnosis result. 5. In paper-and-pencil two-tier diagnostic test and computerized two-tier diagnostic test, the identification rates of three combined diagnosis models were in the same order. 6. Less than 35% of the students possessed the following mathematic concepts: using the multiplication relationship between similar numbers to calculate the ratio; determining whether any two numbers are in direct proportion; finding the relationship between two direct proportional numbers or two numbers of the same ratio and solving problem; drawing the relation chart for two sets of direct proportional numbers; determining the relation chart for two sets of direct proportional numbers and finding the unknown number from the relation chart of two direct proportional numbers. 7. More than 50% of the students made those six misconceptions described as the following: unclear about the proportion concept - mistake ratio for proportion; calculation mistake when converting integer ratio- mistake in decimal digits; proportional misplacement; wrong proportional formula; unable to determine the same ratio relation when two variables are in direct proportion; and unaware the relation chart will be a straight line that runs through the origin if two variables are in direct proportion. 8. According to the analysis of the questionnaires that were done by students who received computerized two-tier diagnostic test, the result showed that students have no difficulty in using the computerized two-tier test developed in the research. Keywords: “Ratio, Proportion and Direct Proportion”, Bayesian network, two-tier test, computerized diagnostic test

碩士
國立臺中教育大學
教育資訊與測驗統計研究所碩士在職專班
103
The study aimed to utilize DINA model and Bug-DINO model of cognitive diagnostic models to proceed remedial instruction with cognitive attributes and misconceptions which focused on the “ratio and proportion” unit of on Grade 6. The study adopted an quasi-experimental design to compare learning effectiveness and mathematical motivation between experimental group and traditional remedial instruction group. Furthermore, students’ learning outcomes with different ability and background on experimental groups, as well as the opinions of computerized adaptive remedial instruction were explored. Results were showed as follows: 1. The average consistency between expert diagnosis and the diagnostic result of DINA model was 86.9%. The average consistency between expert diagnosis and the diagnostic result of Bug-DINO model ” was 82.6%. 2. There was significance difference in learning effectiveness of remedial instruction between “DINA diagnostic and adaptive instruction model” and traditional instruction model. Also between “Bug-DINO diagnostic and adaptive instruction model” and traditional instruction model. Moreover, although learning effectiveness of remedial instruction in “Bug-DINO diagnostic and adaptive instruction model” was better than in “DINA diagnostic and adaptive instruction model”, but there was no significance difference between these two models. 3. After implementing different remedial instruction, there was no significance difference in students’ mathematical learning motivation. 4. There was no significance difference in learning effectiveness for the students of different backgrounds in the experimental groups. 5. The non-negative opinions were given by above 80% of students in the experimental groups using the computerized adaptive diagnostic instruction.

碩士
國立交通大學
理學院科技與數位學習學程
99
The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of using streaming videos for diagnosis and remedial instructions on learning performance. The major teaching materials focused on the unit, Proportion of 7th-grade. A quasi-experimental design was used. The sampling method was purposive sampling. Four classes of 7th -grade students from a junior high school in Miaoli County were randomly assigned to either the experimental or the control groups. There were 62 students of two classes in experimental group and 55students of two classes in control group. And two classes of 8th-grade students were 59 in this study. The major findings of the study were as follows. 1.No significant difference but high correlation was found between the streaming video test and the written test in the students’ grades. 2.Most students approved the streaming video test. 3.For different cognitive styles of the students, no significant difference was found between the streaming video test and the written test in the students’ grades. 4.After streaming video for remedial instructions, there was significant greater between pretest and posttest in the students’ scores. 5.Most students approved the streaming video for remedial instructions. 6.For different cognitive styles of the students, no significant difference was found in the students’ progress scores after streaming video for remedial instructions.

The focus of this thesis was the development of failure prognosis methods (prognostics) in rotating machinery with use of multiple sensors digital signal processing and machine learning techniques. The motivation stems from the void in literature concerning prognostics in meshing gearboxes. Moreover, there are several but inconclusive works regarding bearing prognosis. Few research groups have studied multi-hour fatigue gear experiments and this was one of the contributions of this thesis. Moreover, the study expanded beyond the sheer application of vibration monitoring with the addition of an Oil Debris Monitoring probe (ODM) as well as Acoustic emission (AE). The method of AE monitoring is, once again, proposed as a robust technique for failure prognosis being better correlated with gear pitting level compared to the classic vibration monitoring technique. Moreover, judging from ODM recordings the gear pitting comprises of two phases i) a linear phase, with an almost constant pitting rate and ii) a very short non linear phase where the pitting rate increases exponentially, an explicit indication of a critical failure. Multi-hour gear experiments that are close to real scale applications are very demanding in time as well as in invested capital. To bypass this shortfall a gear failure like simulation is proposed. The simulation framework is based on real life experiments and is applied to assess a number of data-driven Remaining Useful Life (RUL) estimation techniques namely i) Proportional Hazards Μodel (PHM), ii) ε- Support Vector Regression ε-SVR and iii) Exponential extrapolation based on bootstrap sampling. In the current thesis a feature extraction scheme for prognosis is proposed and assessed based on time domain, frequency domain statistical features and Wavelet Packet (WP) energy derived from AE and vibration recordings. ICA is proposed as a preferable fusion technique for gear failure prognostics. Application of ICA for feature fusion provided a clear improvement regarding the earlier presented bootstrap extrapolation technique. Bearings are also taken into account since they are closely connected to gearboxes. In the current thesis a wavelet denoising method is proposed for bearing vibration recordings aiming to the improvement of the diagnostic and prognostic potential of vibration. Finally the importance of data fusion is highlighted in the case of bearings. It is observed that a feature extraction scheme can generalize the application of prognostics, even in cases where RMS may yield no important degradation trend.
Η παρούσα εργασία εστιάζεται στην ανάπτυξη μεθοδολογιών πρόβλεψης τελικής αστοχίας σε περιστρεφόμενα συστήματα με χρήση πολλαπλών αισθητήρων και μεθόδων μηχανικής μάθησης και επεξεργασίας σήματος. Το κίνητρο προήλθε από το κενό που υπάρχει στη βιβλιογραφία όσον αφορά την προγνωστική σε κιβώτια ταχυτήτων. Η προγνωστική σε έδρανα έχει μεν μελετηθεί αλλά σε μικρό βαθμό και η παρούσα εργασία έρχεται να συμβάλλει και σε αυτό τον τομέα. Στα πλαίσια αυτής της εργασίας εκπονήθηκε ένας αριθμός πειραμάτων κόπωσης κιβωτίων ταχυτήτων. Η μελέτη επεκτάθηκε πέραν της παρακολούθησης κατάστασης με τη μέθοδο των κραδασμών και συγκεκριμένα μελετήθηκαν καταγραφές σωματιδίων σιδήρου στο λιπαντικό (ODM) καθώς και Ακουστική Εκπομπής (AE). Η μέθοδος ΑΕ ευρέθη πιο στενά συσχετισμένη με τη σταδιακή υποβάθμιση της ακεραιότητας του κιβωτίου ταχυτήτων σε σχέση με τις καταγραφές κραδασμών. Επίσης με βάση τις καταγραφές του αισθητήρα σωματιδίων σιδήρου διακρίθηκαν δύο στάδια  υποβάθμισης i) μια γραμμική περιοχή με σχεδόν σταθερό ρυθμό απελευθέρωσης υλικού από την επιφάνεια των δοντιών και ii) μια σύντομη αλλά έντονα μη γραμμική αύξηση στο ρυθμό αυτό πολύ κοντά στο τέλος της λειτουργίας του κιβωτίου. Tα πολύωρα πειράματα κόπωσης σε γρανάζια είναι πολύ απαιτητικά. Για να παρακαμφθεί αυτή η δυσκολία αναπτύχθηκε ένα φαινομενολογικό μοντέλο για αναπαραγωγή χρονοσειρών που ομοιάζουν σε καταγραφές γραναζιών σε κόπωση. Το μοντέλο αυτό στηρίχθηκε σε πραγματικά πειράματα κόπωσης. Έτσι έγινε δυνατό να εξεταστούν και να συγκριθούν ένας αριθμός μεθοδολογιών εκτίμησης εναπομένουσας ζωής και συγκεκριμένα i) Proportional Hazards Model (PHM), ii) ε- Support Vector Regression ε-SVR και iii) Exponential extrapolation βασισμένο σε μια διαδικασία bootstrap sampling. Στην παρούσα μελέτη προτείνεται ένα σύνολο παραμέτρων προερχόμενο από το πεδίο της συχνότητας, του χρόνου και κυματοπακέτων. Αυτό, συνδυαζόμενο με μια διαδικασία σύμπτυξης δεδομένων (ανάλυση σε πρωταρχικές και ανεξάρτητες συνιστώσες) αξιοποιείται για πρόγνωση σε γρανάζια σε κόπωση. Η τεχνική ανεξάρτητων συνιστωσών προτείνεται σαν προτιμότερη από τη σκοπιά της προγνωστικής καθώς βελτιώνει την εκτίμηση της εναπομένουσας ζωής. Η εργασία επεκτάθηκε και σε έδρανα κύλισης. Προτάθηκε μια διαδικασία wavelet denoising η οποία ενισχύει τόσο τη διαγνωστική όσο και την προγνωστική δυνατότητα του αισθητήρα κραδασμών. Τέλος, η σημασία της εξαγωγής παραμέτρων υπογραμμίζεται και στην περίπτωση της προγνωστικής σε έδρανα. Συνδυάζοντας πολλαπλές παραμέτρους και αισθητήρες κραδασμών μαζί με ένα μοντέλο ε-SVR παρέχεται ένα ολοκληρωμένο μοντέλο πιθανοτικής εκτίμησης εναπομένουσας ζωής σε έδρανα κύλισης ακόμα και σε περιπτώσεις που η τιμή RMS των κραδασμών δεν παρέχει πληροφορία.

The theoretical part of this master thesis analyses appropriate financial models for financial appraisal, trends, proportion indicators and models for prediction of future development. I carried out the analysis of the financial administration of the chosen company in three points of view: hierarchical proportion indicators during the period of 2008 and 2012, comparison of financial results among the sector and appraisal by prediction models.