Literatura académica sobre el tema "Dry period. eng"

Due to water resources shortage in Saudi Arabia, the water authority relies on intermittent water supply system. In this system, the city is divided into a number of small sectors, and water is pumped rotationally between the sectors according to an operational schedule. The frequency of water pumping to a given sector varies from several days to weeks. Between the intermittent water supply, pipes remain empty and dry for long periods. Consumers construct the underground storage water tanks to meet their demands. Lack of sewerage systems in many areas with high water table in the city lead to the presence of cesspools near the underground storage water tanks. Potential leakage of polluted water into the distribution network is very high and the pipe system is exposed to the pressure of contaminated surrounding water table. These factors enhance the risk of drinking water contamination. The first objective of this study is to assess the quality of domestic water supply in Jeddah. One hundred and thirteen water samples were collected in a five-month period between January and June 2009. Thirteen parameters were evaluated and compared to the maximum level of the WHO and Gulf standards for un-bottled drinking water. The results showed a compliance with the drinking water standards regarding the physical and chemical parameters, except five samples which have exceeded the maximum allowable limit for iron. The bacteriological results showed that up to 60% of the samples were contaminated with total coliform. The second objective is to evaluate the suitability and reliability of the most purchased domestic water purification units (point-of-use) POU, and to select the suitable water purification unit for the residential water in Jeddah. Unit III, which consists of fiber filters, activated carbon filter and the ultraviolet UV- Sterilizer of ultraviolet (UV), was found to be suitable for domestic use in Jeddah

The monologue that is reproduced has in its genesis two sentences related to the imperfect problem of the enjoyment of weekly rest at shift work: the judgments of the Court of Justice of the European Union, of 9-11-2017 (Maio Marques da Rosa, case C - 306/16), and the Supreme Court of Justice, of 14-11-2018 (case 1181/15.4T8MTS.P1.S1). The fact that the issue in question was decided on the basis of rules of general scope (respectively, Article 5, first part, of the Directive 2003/88, concerning certain aspects of the organisation of working time, and Article 232, paragraph 1, of the Labour Code) has given to give these decisions an innovative dimension, potentially disruptive in the social and legal sphere, if it is under-stood that the normativity of the first sentence is directly extendable to the com-mon of labour contracts. The final conclusion is that the Portuguese labour system enshrines the weekly rest rule on the seventh day, allowing for the possibility of derogations for a limited set of activities; however, in relation to these, the application of this regime depends on provision in terms of collective labour regulation instruments.

To study sleep responses to chronic sleep restriction (CSR) and time-of-day influences on these responses, we developed a rat model of CSR that takes into account the polyphasic sleep patterns in rats. Adult male rats underwent cycles of 3 h of sleep deprivation (SD) and 1 h of sleep opportunity (SO) continuously for 4 days, beginning at the onset of the 12-h light phase (“3/1” protocol). Electroencephalogram (EEG) and electromyogram (EMG) recordings were made before, during, and after CSR. During CSR, total sleep time was reduced by ∼60% from baseline levels. Both rapid eye movement sleep (REMS) and non-rapid eye movement sleep (NREMS) during SO periods increased initially relative to baseline and remained elevated for the rest of the CSR period. In contrast, NREMS EEG delta power (a measure of sleep intensity) increased initially, but then declined gradually, in parallel with increases in high-frequency power in the NREMS EEG. The amplitude of daily rhythms in NREMS and REMS amounts was maintained during SO periods, whereas that of NREMS delta power was reduced. Compensatory responses during the 2-day post-CSR recovery period were either modest or negative and gated by time of day. NREMS, REMS, and EEG delta power lost during CSR were not recovered by the end of the second recovery day. Thus the “3/1” CSR protocol triggered both homeostatic responses (increased sleep amounts and intensity during SOs) and allostatic responses (gradual decline in sleep intensity during SOs and muted or negative post-CSR sleep recovery), and both responses were modulated by time of day.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of genetic group, sex and level of protein-energy supplementation on the performance and carcass traitsultrasound prediction of weaned calves Nellore and crossbred animals ½ Nellore x ½ Aberdeen Angus. A completely randomized design in a factorial 2x2x2, were used, with two levels of protein-energy supplementation, two sex and two genetic groups. Fifty-six animals were used (28 Nellore and 28 crossbred ½ Nellore x ½ Aberdeen Angus), equally divided between males and females, maintained on grazing Brachiariabrizanthacv. Marandu and evaluated in three experimental periods: period 1 = protein-energy supplementation in the dry season; period 2 = protein-energy supplementation during the rainy season; period 3 = only mineral supplementation. In the dry season, they were supplemented with levels of 0.5 and 1% of body weight (BW) and in the rainy season with 0 and 1% BW. Dry matter intake (kg day-1, % BW, g kgBW0.75-1) was estimated. In vivo ultrasound measurements of carcass were: loin eye area (LEA), fat thickness (FT) and rump fat thickness (RFT). There was influence of genetic group and protein-energy supplementation levels on average daily gain (ADG) of animals in period 1 and 2 (P < 0.05). Sex affected the ADG only in period 2, and the males had 754 gday-1 and females, 582 g day-1. There was no interaction of genetic group x sex x supplementation level. At the end of the experimental period (end of period 3), it was found that male animals and crossbred animals ½ Nellore x ½ Aberdeen Angus had higher ADG (716 and 748 g day-1, respectively). The values of dry matter intake (DMI) were influenced by genetic group and sex, in all periods, verifying highest intake in crossbred animals ½ Nellore x ½ Aberdeen Angus, with better feed conversion for crossbred animals. Regarding ultrasound measurements taken on the carcass, the influence of sex on FT and RFT, it was observed, and the males showed higher values, 3.24 and 4.62 mm, respectively. LEA was influenced by protein-energy supplementation levels in the second period, herein animals receiving 1% of BW, showed higher values (56.04 cm2) than those receiving 0.5% of BW supplement (48.38 cm2). The use of protein-energy supplementation with 0.5% of BW in the dry season and 1% of BW in the rainy season, the best results of performance and contributes to larger loin eye area.

Effect of Dry Period and Rainfall Intensity on Emergence of the Migratory Locust (Locusta migratoria manilensis Meyen). Dry period and rainfall intensity were simulated experimentally to determine their effects on nymph emergence of the migratory locust (Locusta migratoria manilensis Meyen) (Orthoptera: Acrididae). The experiment was conducted in a factorial set up with two factors, i.e. dry periods (1, 2, 4, 8, and 12 week interval of watering) and rainfall intensity (80, 140, 200, and 260 mm/month). Locust nymphal emergence and time required to emerge after the watering were recorded and analyzed. Results of the experiment indicated that dry periods and rainfall levels affected nymphal emergence of the migratory locust. Interaction between dry periods and rainfall levels, however, were statistically not significant (F-value = 0,69 and P-value = 0,7526). Nymphal emergences of L. m. manilensis tended to be higher on soils that were watered less frequently. Similarly, locust emergences were also higher for the soil with lower rainfall intensity (received less amount of watering). At the 80 mm/month rainfall level, 20 – 105,5 days period (egg incubation period) were required before the locust emergence. Incubation period of the eggs was significantly higher as the breeding media (soil) were watered less frequently. On the other hand, time required for the egg to emerge as nymphs was relatively similar regardless of the dry period levels. All eggs emerged 14 – 15,5 days after watering.

The objective of the present paper is to review the significance of administration of antibiotics at the end of a lactation period/beginning of the dry-period in ewes. During the stage of active involution, there is an increased risk of new mastitis cases and recrudescence of subclinical infections that had occurred during the previous lactation period. The main pathogens involved in the so-called ‘dry-period mastitis’ are coagulase-negative staphylococci. The principle of antibiotic administration at the end of a lactation period involves the intramammary infusion of a preparation to both mammary glands of ewes in the flock. Although a variety of products is licensed for administration in ewes, preferably the product for administration should be selected on the results of susceptibility testing of bacteria to be isolated from samples from ewes in the flock. In many clinical studies from around the world, performed in dairy- or mutton-production flocks, administration of antimicrobial agents at the end of a lactation period has been found beneficial in curing intramammary infections present at cessation of a lactation period, as well as in minimising the risk for intramammary infections during the dry-period. In dairy flocks, there are also benefits from increase in milk yield and decrease flock bulk milk mean somatic cell counts during the subsequent lactation period. Antibiotic administration at drying-off may be performed to all animals in a flock (‘complete’) or only to those considered to be infected (‘selective’). In all cases, after administration of the antibiotic, definite and complete cessation of the lactation period is essential for success of the procedure. Moreover, maintenance of the prescribed withdrawal periods is essential to safeguard public health. The procedure should always be applied as part of a strategic udder health management plan in a flock; implementation improves the welfare of animals and affords significant financial benefits to the farmer. A mastitis prevention scheme during lactation will minimise the incidence of the disease; effective treatment of cases of the disease during lactation will decrease the bacterial populations in the flock and limit risk of infection of other animals. Administration of antibiotics at the end of a lactation period will complement the above procedures and will contribute to improved mammary health for the forthcoming lactation period.

Catharanthus roseus `Cooler Peppermint' were grown under four different watering regimes [well-watered (WW), wilt plus 1 day (W+1), wilt plus 3 days (W+3), and wilt plus 1 day during the last 2 weeks only (L W+1)] and two different light levels [1100 and 750 μmol·m–2·s–1]. Stress treatments affected finished plant size and leaf area as well as stomatal conductance, water potential and time to wilt during two dry-down periods imposed at the end of an 8-week production cycle. W+3 plants were 50% smaller with 50% less leaf area compared to WW plants. During the second dry-down period, WW plants in high light wilted in 2 days vs 4 days for the W+3 plants. Similarly, WW plants in low light wilted in 3 days vs 6 days for the W+3 plants. The W+3 plants maintained significantly higher water potentials and greater stomatal conductances than the other treatments throughout both dry-down periods.

This study aimed to evaluate the sexual behavior of 'Morada Nova' breeding sheep reared in the Brazilian semi-arid during dry and rainy seasons in a semi-intensive system. The behavioral data were gathered from 4 rams and 114 ewes, among which 55 during the rainy season and the other 59 females in the dry season. The behavioral observations were conducted from 6 am to 5 pm, during both periods. The observations were carried out continuously and split into 'event' (execution frequency) and 'state' (execution time). During the rainy season, the breeding sheep showed the most efficient sexual behavior, with a shorter reaction time (RT) and less frequent mount attempts (MA), being of 122 sec and 2.97, respectively. However, throughout the dry period, some sexual behaviors such as sniffing the urogenital of females (SUF), penis exposure (EXP), head tossing (HT), and courting of females (FC) became more frequent, mainly in the afternoon, as with the flehmen response (FR). Male courting behavior was more evident in the rainy season during the end of the day, remaining less active during the dry period. Sexual behavior intensity in 'Morada Nova' sheep varies throughout the day, especially in the dry season.

Orientador: Jane Maria Bertocco Ezequiel
Banca: Leandro das Dores Ferreira da Silva
Banca: Leonardo de Oliveira Fernandes
Banca: Mauro Dal Secco de Oliveira
Banca: Ricardo Andrade Reis
Resumo: Foram realizados três experimentos com o objetivo de avaliar o comportamento ingestivo de bovinos submetidos a diferentes estratégias de suplementação e seus efeitos sobre o desempenho. No primeiro experimento foram utilizados 24 bovinos da raça Nelore, machos,castrados com aproximadamente 14 meses de idade, com peso médio aproximado de 320 kg de PV distribuídos em três lotes de oito animais cada e mantidos em três piquetes providos de bebedouros e cochos. A suplementação protéica (24%PB) foi fornecida diariamente na quantidade de 1 kg/animal/dia para avaliar o efeito, sobre o desempenho dos animais, das variáveis comportamentais em pé (EP), em pé ruminando (EPR), comendo o suplemento (C) e pastejando (P). Os animais foram acompanhados em cinco períodos diários contínuos de 8 h (das 9 às 17h), usando-se a coleta instantânea, com intervalo amostral a cada cinco minutos. Não foram observadas diferenças significativas para as variáveis comportamentais nos diferentes lotes e dias de observação, sendo obtidas as médias EPR= 0,84; 0,82 e 1,10; EP= 1,26; 1,02 e 1,3; C = 1,06; 1,26 e 1,26; P = 3,14; 3,2 e 2,96 h, por período de observação diário, e os ganhos médios foram 0,23, 0,19 e 0,18 kg/animal respectivamente para os lotes 1, 2 e 3. Concluiu-se que as variáveis comportamentais não influenciaram o ganho de peso, que deve ter sido atribuído a fatores de ordem social e características qualitativas da pastagem. No segundo experimento foram utilizadas trinta novilhas mestiças... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo)
Abstract: Were conducted three experiments with the objective to evaluate the ingestive behaviour of bovines submitted different strategies of supplementation and its effect on the performance .In the first experiment were used 24 Nelore steers, males castrated approximately 14 months, and medium weight of 320 kg BW The animals were designated to three groups of eight animals each and maintained in three provided pickets of drinking fountain and hod. The daily proteic (24%PB)supplementation being the supplement supplied in the amount of 1 Kg/animal/day for evaluate the effect in performance animals recording the behavioural categories standing up an still(EP),standing up and ruminating(EPR)eating the supplement( C) and grazing( P ). For this study the animals were accompanied in three continuous periods of 8 h (9:00 the 17:00), totaling 40 hours of visual observations with continuous assessment and focal sampling, with interval every five minutes for the recording the behavioural categories. There was no significant difference for the behavioural categories in differents groups and daily period of observation the means obttid were EPR= 0,84; 0,82 e 1,10; EP= 1,26; 1,02 e 1,3; C = 1,06; 1,26 e 1,26; P = 3,14; 3,2 e 2,96 h in period of observation, in weight gain on the animal performance in the different groups were as 0,230, 0,195 and 0,183 kg/animal/day respectively in the groups 1,2 e 3 ist must have the factors of social order and qualitative characteristics in the pasture. In second were used thirty crossbred heifers, with age and corporal weight average initials of 10 months and 234 kg PV. All the experimental animals daily received the supplement in the amount from 0,5%PV in individual pens of 8 m2 (4x2 m), containing concrete hod and drinking fountain.
Doutor

An orbitally induced increase in summer insolation during the last glacial-interglacial transition enhanced the thermal contrast between land and sea, with land masses heating up compared to the adjacent ocean surface. In North Africa, warmer land surfaces created a low-pressure zone, driving the northward penetration of monsoonal rains originating from the Atlantic Ocean. As a consequence, regions today among the driest of the world were covered by permanent and deep freshwater lakes, some of them being exceptionally large, such as the “Mega” Lake Chad, which covered some 400 000 square kilometers. A dense network of rivers developed.What were the consequences of this climate change on plant distribution and biodiversity? Pollen grains that accumulated over time in lake sediments are useful tools to reconstruct past vegetation assemblages since they are extremely resistant to decay and are produced in great quantities. In addition, their morphological character allows the determination of most plant families and genera.In response to the postglacial humidity increase, tropical taxa that survived as strongly reduced populations during the last glacial period spread widely, shifting latitudes or elevations, expanding population size, or both. In the Saharan desert, pollen of tropical trees (e.g., Celtis) were found in sites located at up to 25°N in southern Libya. In the Equatorial mountains, trees (e.g., Olea and Podocarpus) migrated to higher elevations to form the present-day Afro-montane forests. Patterns of migration were individualistic, with the entire range of some taxa displaced to higher latitudes or shifted from one elevation belt to another. New combinations of climate/environmental conditions allowed the cooccurrences of taxa growing today in separate regions. Such migrational processes and species-overlapping ranges led to a tremendous increase in biodiversity, particularly in the Saharan desert, where more humid-adapted taxa expanded along water courses, lakes, and wetlands, whereas xerophytic populations persisted in drier areas.At the end of the Holocene era, some 2,500 to 4,500 years ago, the majority of sites in tropical Africa recorded a shift to drier conditions, with many lakes and wetlands drying out. The vegetation response to this shift was the overall disruption of the forests and the wide expansion of open landscapes (wooded grasslands, grasslands, and steppes). This environmental crisis created favorable conditions for further plant exploitation and cereal cultivation in the Congo Basin.

This chapter focuses on the nine-day period of preparation of the Festival in the village of Santo Domingo de Ónzole and presents an ethnographic discussion of the village's marked sexual dichotomy. This ethnographic information will help explain why gender is so important in that village's Festival performances. Topics discussed include the subsistence economy in the northern sector of Esmeraldas; the founding of the village at the end of the nineteenth century; kinship networks in Santo Domingo; outmigration from Santo Domingo de Ónzole; socioeconomic differentiation in Santo Domingo; geography of the village; and the organization of the Festival by a committee of women.

Chapter Abstract: Released at the end of the first cycle of postwar anticommunist noir (1947-1953), Samuel Fuller’s Pickup on South Street (1953) is a canonical Cold War picture; it’s also one of the most overdetermined films made during the McCarthy period, centrally concerned as it is with the atom or hydrogen bomb, sex and violence, treason and espionage, capitalism vs. communism, and the politics of informing. Whereas Pickup on South Street depicts both the police and FBI as crudely utilitarian, indifferent to the human costs of the national-security state apparatus, it simultaneously dramatizes the lives of its small-time hoods and hustlers for whom the threat of the “red menace” is less pressing than the day-to-day, dog-eat-dog grind of trying to remain in the black.

There is ample evidence from palaeobotanic and palaeoclimatic reconstructions that during early and mid-Holocene between some 11,700 years (in some regions, a few thousand years earlier) and some 4200 years ago, subtropical North Africa was much more humid and greener than today. This African Humid Period (AHP) was triggered by changes in the orbital forcing, with the climatic precession as the dominant pacemaker. Climate system modeling in the 1990s revealed that orbital forcing alone cannot explain the large changes in the North African summer monsoon and subsequent ecosystem changes in the Sahara. Feedbacks between atmosphere, land surface, and ocean were shown to strongly amplify monsoon and vegetation changes. Forcing and feedbacks have caused changes far larger in amplitude and extent than experienced today in the Sahara and Sahel. Most, if not all, climate system models, however, tend to underestimate the amplitude of past African monsoon changes and the extent of the land-surface changes in the Sahara. Hence, it seems plausible that some feedback processes are not properly described, or are even missing, in the climate system models.Perhaps even more challenging than explaining the existence of the AHP and the Green Sahara is the interpretation of data that reveal an abrupt termination of the last AHP. Based on climate system modeling and theoretical considerations in the late 1990s, it was proposed that the AHP could have ended, and the Sahara could have expanded, within just a few centuries—that is, much faster than orbital forcing. In 2000, paleo records of terrestrial dust deposition off Mauritania seemingly corroborated the prediction of an abrupt termination. However, with the uncovering of more paleo data, considerable controversy has arisen over the geological evidence of abrupt climate and ecosystem changes. Some records clearly show abrupt changes in some climate and terrestrial parameters, while others do not. Also, climate system modeling provides an ambiguous picture.The prediction of abrupt climate and ecosystem changes at the end of the AHP is hampered by limitations implicit in the climate system. Because of the ubiquitous climate variability, it is extremely unlikely that individual paleo records and model simulations completely match. They could do so in a statistical sense, that is, if the statistics of a large ensemble of paleo data and of model simulations converge. Likewise, the interpretation regarding the strength of terrestrial feedback from individual records is elusive. Plant diversity, rarely captured in climate system models, can obliterate any abrupt shift between green and desert state. Hence, the strength of climate—vegetation feedback is probably not a universal property of a certain region but depends on the vegetation composition, which can change with time. Because of spatial heterogeneity of the African landscape and the African monsoon circulation, abrupt changes can occur in several, but not all, regions at different times during the transition from the humid mid-Holocene climate to the present-day more arid climate. Abrupt changes in one region can be induced by abrupt changes in other regions, a process sometimes referred to as “induced tipping.” The African monsoon system seems to be prone to fast and potentially abrupt changes, which to understand and to predict remains one of the grand challenges in African climate science.

The serialization of object full NPs is relatively free in Modern German. In OHG, the order IO > DO was heavily preferred; the preference weakened only in the ENHG period. The most important factor for the serialization of object full NPs in OHG is ‘animate before inanimate’, which continues to be an important factor up to the present day. The order IO > DO falls out from that, as the accusative (DO case) tends to be assigned to the least agent-like referent. The loosening of the object order in ENHG is a consequence of other factors becoming more important, for instance ‘given before new’. With respect to structure binding facts suggest that the DO c-commands the IO, the animacy factor being responsible for re-ordering to IO > DO.

This epilogue outlines Burke’s afterlife in the period after 1914 up until the present day. Between 1830 and 1914 a dramatic transformation in Burke’s reputation occurred. He became established, in Britain, as one of the principal founders of conservatism. Though this is the end of our story, this was the beginning of a new period in Burke’s reception history. This book has shown how a distilled political theory was gradually extracted from his corpus and de-contextualized accordingly. It was a trend which continued into the twentieth century—not just in Britain, but also in America. This has been countered and challenged by more recent scholarship. But Burke remains an attractive icon globally because of the worldwide importance of the events on which his work provides a comment. His history is bigger than C/conservatism, though this has provided a crucial (because simple) method of interpretation.

This chapter examines the creolizing maritime cultures of Long Island and Manhattan, two New York islands that directly shaped William Sidney Mount's personal and musical world. It reconstructs the environments that Mount knew and by which he was shaped, as a child and young adult in antebellum America. To this end, the chapter considers how influences from Long Island and Manhattan play out in the life of Mount, in that of his uncle and musical mentor Micah Hawkins, and in Hawkins's 1824 ballad opera The Saw-Mill, or, A Yankee Trick. It begins with a discussion of evidence of blackface minstrelsy's creole synthesis in the antebellum period by describing two festival performances, Pinkster and 'Lection Day, and during the Federalist period. It then assesses the creole synthesis in black Manhattan by focusing on the “African Grove” Theater, along with Mount's first works and new career path following the death of Hawkins. It concludes with a review of Mount's scenic painting Rustic Dance after a Sleigh Ride.

AbstractClimate change impact on rainfall and temperature extreme indices in the Vea catchment was analyzed using observation and an ensemble mean of bias-corrected regional climate models datasets for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 4.5) scenario. Rainfall extreme indices such as annual total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT), extremely wet days (R99P), consecutive wet days (CWD), consecutive dry days (CDD), and temperature indices such as warmest day (TXx) and warmest night (TNx) from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring Indices (ETCCDMI) were computed for both the historical (1986–2016) and future (2020–2049) period using the RClimdex. The parametric ordinary least square (OLS) regression approach was used to detect trends in the time series of climate change and extreme indices. The results show an increase in mean annual temperature at the rate of 0.02 °C/year and a variability in rainfall at the catchment, under RCP 4.5 scenario. The warmest day and warmest night were projected to increase by 0.8 °C and 0.3 °C, respectively, in the future relative to the historical period. The intensity (e.g., R99p) and frequency (e.g., CDD) of extreme rainfall indices were projected to increase by 29 mm and 26 days, respectively, in the future. This is an indication of the vulnerability of the catchment to the risk of climate disasters (e.g., floods and drought). Adaptation strategies such as early warning systems, availability of climate information, and flood control measures are recommended to reduce the vulnerability of the people to the risk of the projected impact of climate extreme in the future.

AbstractClimate change impact on rainfall and temperature extreme indices in the Vea catchment was analyzed using observation and an ensemble mean of bias-corrected regional climate models datasets for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 4.5) scenario. Rainfall extreme indices such as annual total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT), extremely wet days (R99P), consecutive wet days (CWD), consecutive dry days (CDD), and temperature indices such as warmest day (TXx) and warmest night (TNx) from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring Indices (ETCCDMI) were computed for both the historical (1986–2016) and future (2020–2049) period using the RClimdex. The parametric ordinary least square (OLS) regression approach was used to detect trends in the time series of climate change and extreme indices. The results show an increase in mean annual temperature at the rate of 0.02 °C/year and a variability in rainfall at the catchment, under RCP 4.5 scenario. The warmest day and warmest night were projected to increase by 0.8 °C and 0.3 °C, respectively, in the future relative to the historical period. The intensity (e.g., R99p) and frequency (e.g., CDD) of extreme rainfall indices were projected to increase by 29 mm and 26 days, respectively, in the future. This is an indication of the vulnerability of the catchment to the risk of climate disasters (e.g., floods and drought). Adaptation strategies such as early warning systems, availability of climate information, and flood control measures are recommended to reduce the vulnerability of the people to the risk of the projected impact of climate extreme in the future.

The dry period lays a foundation for a successful next lactation, especially from the udder health perspective. It is a high-risk period for acquiring new intramammary infections (IMI), but it also provides an excellent opportunity for eliminating existing subclinical infections. The way cows are dried off and milking is halted at the end of lactation impacts the involution process, mammary health and cow comfort. Antibiotic dry cow therapy (DCT) has played a crucial part in mastitis control, but due to global concerns about increasing antibiotic resistance, the approach to DCT is evolving. This chapter reviews the current knowledge about the impact of milk cessation methods (abrupt vs. gradual dry-off) on mammary involution, udder health and cow comfort. The importance of dry cow therapy is discussed, especially in the light of current global concerns related to antibiotic resistance.

With the end of the Pacific War, responsibility for military government on Okinawa transferred to the U.S. Navy. American combat troops on Okinawa adjusted their priority from enemy engagement to demobilization, and military government changed its mission from amassing the population to full occupation of a prefecture from a defeated country. Overwhelmed by a large, displaced population who still had urgent needs for basic sustenance and medical treatment, the Navy issued ad hoc directives and did not build strategically toward a defined, long-term goal. Early Navy military government failed to adapt to the new peacetime environment; it did not attempt to rebuild and its assumptions of Okinawan identity remained stagnated in a wartime state. Navy military government struggled so profoundly in completing day to day requirements that any developments toward improvement in the program failed to reach fruition in 1945.

This chapter discusses the status of citizenship education across three periods of New Zealand history. Each period is characterized by the competing educational debates of the day. The first period (Indigenous vs. Colonial, circa 1200AD-early 1900s) describes the contestation over land, citizenship, and education between the indigenous Māori and their British colonizers. Early in the 20th century, the traditional colonial form of schooling is challenged by a liberal progressive approach (Traditional Conservative vs. Liberal Progressive, 1900s-1970s). With the economic downturn of the 1970s the third era begins (New Right vs. Liberal Left, 1970s-present). In each period of history, the nature and status of education for citizenship has been a subject of debate with the outcome in the hands of the dominant ideology of the time. The tensions have not yet been resolved and while education for citizenship has always been an end-goal, it has never reached the status of a compulsory subject.

In relation to Saturdays, Sundays, and official holidays, the expiry of a time limit pursuant to para 1 is postponed until the end of the following working day if the calculation of the time limit pursuant to Rule 300 means that it ends on a Saturday, Sunday, or official holiday.

Frank Gresham was absent from Greshamsbury twelve months and a day. A day is always added to the period of such absences, as shown in the history of Lord Bateman^* and other noble heroes. We need not detail all the circumstances of...

This chapter covers the common issues encountered in the last days of life relating to prognostication, anticipatory prescribing, common symptom management, spiritual care, and the five priorites of end-of-life care. Terminal phase is the period of inexorable and irreversible decline in functional status prior to death. It is the period when there is day-to-day deterioration, particularly of strength, appetite, and awareness. This may unfold gradually over days or weeks, or occur precipitously following an unexpected event, e.g. stroke. These challenges may present as sudden changes in the clinical status needing urgent attention. More often they are predictable, and reflect a final common pathway of many progressive illnesses.

The development and rapid spread of Islam in the 7th century AD laid the groundwork for the modern Near East. Islam’s early thinkers attempted to position their new religion as superior by threading the needle between Christianity and Judaism. Islam adopted a much more restricted version of the food taboos laid out in the Torah. The taboo on pork was one of the few the Quran, and it ultimately spelled the end of pig husbandry in much of the Near East. Nevertheless, pig husbandry and pork consumption have continued to this day, especially among Christian communities. The taboo also became increasingly tied to ethnoreligious intolerance and acts of hatred in the medieval and modern periods. The weaponization of pork, which can be traced at its earliest to the Classical period, became increasingly prevalent, as did the pejorative association of Christians with swine.

‘End-of-life care in stroke’ examines the specific challenges in stroke, the challenges and difficulties of decision-making, identifiers of poor outcome, defining what is ‘good stroke death’, effective communication, role of resuscitation, clinically assisted hydration and nutrition, prepalliative care plans, personalized end-of-life care for the dying patient, symptom control, and issues concerning grieving and caring for the staff members. Over 80% of stroke deaths happen in those over 75. In most cases of life-threatening stroke, mental capacity is lost. Advanced care planning is rarely done and issues around decision-making are often challenging for those close to the patient. Families need an active communication process from day one with a realistic discussion of options. Where a poor outcome is feared, this needs communicating with reassurance and decisions made that would reflect the wishes and best interests of the person.

Changes in the characteristics of spring-summer droughts in the south of European Russia (twelve regions) in the period 1901-2018 were studied using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and analyzed in the periods of increasing/decreasing humidifying estimated by the Aridity Index (AI). In each studied region, the trends of aridization for centrury and more are not found. In the meantime, long-term interdecadal periods of increasing and decreasing aridization are detected. They are characterized by significant variation of frequency and intensity of spring-summer droughts. Decreasing aridization in the early 20th century over most of the south of European Russia has been replaced by aridization increase in 1930s. The period of increasing humidifying of the whole investigated area from 1960s to the end of 20th century changed to the period of increasing aridization. During dry periods, frequency of drought increases in 1.5 times, while drought intensity growth is insignificant. In actual dry period, beginning with the early 21th century, spring-summer droughts have emerged earlier in eastern part of South of European Russia; however, in western part drought are observed more often.

Abstract Belt drives have long been utilized in engine applications to power accessories such as alternators, pumps, compressors and fans. Drives employing a single, flat, ‘serpentine belt’ tensioned by an ‘automatic tensioner’ are now common in automotive engine applications. The automatic tensioner helps maintain constant belt tension and to dissipate unwanted belt drive vibration through dry friction. The objective of this study is to predict the periodic rotational response of the entire drive to harmonic excitation from the crankshaft. To this end, a multi-degree of freedom incremental harmonic balance (IHB) method is utilized to compute periodic solutions to the nonlinear equations of motion over a wide range of engine speeds. Computed results illustrate primary and secondary resonances of accessories and tensioner stick-slip motions.

Dry docking is a short period of time where a ship is placed inside a dry dock to finish a list of integrated jobs. During this period, any non-value work, generated by the Shipyard, is consider a waste of time and cost from the customer’s perspective. Different studies were made early to differentiate between value and non-value work done by the shipyard from the customer point of view. However author founds that, there are other different types of waste that generated by the customer himself which affects the project course. Therefore the burden of maximizing value and minimizing waste should be carried by the customer before the shipyard. And the shipyard in return should ensure that, because the loss impact on the shipyard will be more than on the customer. Case studies are utilized to demonstrate the customer’s waste and its impact on the shipyard during dry-docking. Showing the wastes from the shipyard’s perspective, instead of the customer’s, will enhance the customer’s scope and profit at the end of dry-docking. This will be guided by analytical methods to show, in figures, the owner’s loss and profit. The author’s objective, as project manager in a well-known shipyard, is to illustrate what is done and what should be done from the customer’s side to initiate and enforce Lean Ship repair. This paper explores the waste from the shipyard’s perspective, which if adopted by the customer, lean repair will be working in parallel on both sides.

The continuing search for a long-term storage for highly-active nuclear waste in Germany requires a prolonged intermediate storage period of spent fuel in dry storage casks at the power plant sites. Currently, it is not sufficiently clear if there might be a loss of integrity of the fuel rods within such long periods, e.g. due to rising pressure from gaseous products of nuclear decay. Regarding a final evaluation, extrapolative modelling of the radiochemical and thermomechanical material behavior is challenging and not suitable for predictions on the condition of storage container inventory after the intermediate storage period. Therefore, it is of public interest to find measurement principles or methods which can provide information about the condition of the storage container inventory. In line with a cooperative project (project partners: Technical University Dresden, Zittau/Görlitz University of Applied Sciences) different measurement principles and methods (radiation emission, muon transmission, thermography, acoustical spectrometry) for non-invasive condition monitoring of the storage container inventory in case of prolonged intermediate storage are going to be investigated and evaluated. The results shall help to determine suitable methods for the identification of both changes of the spent fuel and inner container structure over long periods without opening the container and would be a significant contribution for the long-term safety of intermediately stored highly radioactive waste. Furthermore, suitable methods would provide information about the transport and conditioning ability of the waste before transfer to the repository. This paper deals with the content of the subproject of Zittau/Görlitz University of Applied Sciences as well as with the approach for project realization. A further main part of this paper is the development of experimental infrastructure to support the investigations.

One of the safety requirements in dry storage of spent fuel is to ensure the cladding integrity. In this regard, the understanding of the cladding mechanical performance along the storage period is indispensable, both to analyse the failure probability and to characterize the state of the cladding so that fuel management is conducted with accurate knowledge of the material conditions. The main interest is focused on cladding degrading mechanisms as creep and hydrogen related (e.g. hydrides embrittlement), which are strongly influenced by temperature. Therefore, cladding thermal characterization along dry storage is an important element to predict fuel rod mechanical performance. Cladding temperature decay models found in the literature are fuel burnup independent and they cannot be applied to storage periods longer than some decades. The goal of this work is to develop a simplified model of cladding temperature as a function of burnup that spans up to 300 years of cask storage. To do so, a methodology is established based on FLUENT steady state calculations fed by heat decay data found in the literature for different burnups (33–63 MWd/kgU). From the results, a temperature correlation as a function of burnup and out-of-reactor time has been derived. It shows an average relative error less than 2% with respect FLUENT calculations. Finally, significance of having an accurate thermal characterization of the fuel rod has been highlighted by comparing fuel rod thermo-mechanics based on the derived correlation and the one resulting from using a correlation developed by EPRI.

In the recent decades, droughts and dry episodes throughout a year have become common for both arid and humid regions. The Carpathian Mountains referred to as natural water towers are also the case. Accordingly, the study aims and distinguishing monthly and daily patterns and peculiarities of precipitation shortage in the high-mountain areas (above 1000 m) of the Polish and the Ukrainian Carpathians using monthly and daily data series (1984-2015) of weather stations Kasprowy Wierch (1991 m a.s.l), Dolina Pięciu Stawów (1670 m a.s.l) and Morskie Oko (1408 m a.s.l) in the Polish Carpathians, Play (1343 m a.s.l) and Pogegevskaya (1429 m a.s.l) in the Ukrainian Carpathians. Here, in all the months throughout a year, dry episodes have been detected. In the Polish Carpathians, represented by three measuring stations, the driest episodes in the years took place from August to October and January, and slightly less – about 11-16% in the remaining months. In the monthly context, the highest frequency of dry months, exceeding 20%, is detected in June both in Pogegevskaya, as well and in April and July in Play. In March, April, as well as November extreme atmospheric drought took place in the entire area of the Polish Tatra Mountains, the highest mountain range of the Polish Carpathians. In all the measuring stations of the area in November 2011, the precipitation amount did not exceed 11 mm. They accounted for less than 10% of the average multiannual precipitation sum. Alongside, the positive trend in the years from 1984 to 2015 with significance levels of 0.1 and 0.2 was only established in the lowest monthly precipitation sums at Pogegevskaya. The longest episodes without precipitation, periods that begin and end with a day without precipitation, are detected in most parts of the study area in October and November 2011, especially in the western and southern parts of the Polish Carpathians.

The damping capability of squeeze film dampers (SFDs) relies on adequate end sealing to prevent air ingestion and entrapment. The paper presents the parameter identification, procedure and damping coefficients, of a test SFD featuring a mechanical seal that effectively eliminates lubricant side leakage. The test damper reproduces an aircraft application intended to contain the lubricant in the film lands for extended periods of time. The test damper journal is 2.54 cm in length and 12.7 cm in diameter, with a nominal clearance of 0.127 mm. The SFD feed end is flooded with oil, while the discharge end contains a recirculation groove and four orifice ports. In a companion paper (ASME GT2006-90782), single frequency - unidirectional load excitation tests were conducted, without and with lubricant in the squeeze film lands, to determine the seal dry-friction force and viscous damping force coefficients. Presently, tests with single frequency excitation loads rendering circular centered orbits excitations are conducted to identify the SFD force coefficients. The identified parameters include the overall system damping and the individual contributions from the squeeze film, dry friction and structural damping. The identified system damping coefficients are frequency and motion amplitude dependent due to the dry friction interaction at the mechanical seal interface. Identified squeeze film force coefficients, damping and added mass, are in good agreement with predictions based on the full film, short length damper model.

Advanced thermal reactor “FUGEN” is a heavy water-moderated boiling light water-cooled pressure tube-type reactor. Because tritium had been generated in the heavy water during the reactor operation, the heavy water system and helium system were contaminated by tritium. The chemical form of the tritium was water molecule in FUGEN. For the drying treatment of heavy water contaminated by tritium, air-through drying and vacuum drying were applied to the system drying. The air-through drying has an advantage that can reduce the risk of tritium leakage, because the drying equipment can be constructed as closed-circuit. On the other hand, the vacuum drying can dry the whole system because dead end of piping can be aspirated. Helium system, heavy water purification system and rotary type dehumidifier were chosen for the object in this study. It was demonstrated that both methods were effective for drying treatment of heavy water in system. Helium system, low-contamination and non inclusion, could finish the vacuum drying rapidly. However, Heavy water purification system needed long period for drying treatment. The result showed that it needed long period to dry up if the objects include the adsorbent of water such as alumina pellet, resin and silica gel. But it can be accelerated by replacement absorbed heavy water to light water from the result of drying treatment of the rotary type dehumidifier.

Abstract A framework is proposed for demand-side load management (DSLM) of manufacturers participating in demand response (DR) programs. Utilities are increasingly focused on enticing their portfolios of energy end-users to adjust their energy use patterns in a mutually beneficial manner such as with DR programs. DR programs allow the utility to receive bulk peak load reduction and the participating end-user to receive credit towards their electricity bills. Once an end-user is enrolled in a DR program, they receive periodic requests for some amount of load reduction, typically the day before. Failing to respond to a DR signal will usually cost the end-user handsomely. The end-user is often left to their own discretion on how to attain the level of load reduction requested by the utility. For a manufacturer, this means if the request in load reduction is high enough, they will need to figure out how to curtail production. On the other hand, if the load reduction requested is small enough to need no disruption to production, the utility may be missing out on untapped DR capabilities that could be offered from the ability of the manufacturer to reschedule their production. In either case, the availability of an optimal plan for the manufacturer to best schedule its production in response to a DR event can maximize the benefits for both parties. Most of the research found in literature addresses production scheduling with minimal energy use or cost with respect to a time-of-use price tariff. A system that communicates the desires of the utility to the end-user for a DR event and provides the end-user with support in the decision-making process remains to be developed. The framework proposed addresses these shortcomings, considering the introduction of IoT capabilities and the physical constraints of the manufacturer.

The paper presents parameter identification measurements conducted on a squeeze film damper (SFD) featuring a non-rotating mechanical seal that effectively eliminates lubricant side leakage. The SFD-seal arrangement generates dissipative forces due to viscous and dry-friction effects from the lubricant film and surfaces in contact, respectively. The test damper reproduces an aircraft application that must contain the lubricant for extended periods of time. The test damper journal is 2.54 cm in length and 12.7 cm in diameter, with a nominal clearance of 0.127 mm. The damper feed end opens to a plenum filled with lubricant, and at its discharge grooved section, four orifice ports evacuate the lubricant. In prior publications (ASME Paper GT2006-90782, IJTC2006-12041), single frequency force excitation tests were conducted, without and with lubricant in the squeeze film land, to determine the seal dry-friction force and viscous damping force coefficients. Presently, further measurements are conducted to identify the test system and SFD force coefficients using two sets of flow restrictor orifice sizes (2.8 mm and 1.1 mm in diameter). The flow restrictors regulate the discharge flow area, and thus control the oil flow through the squeeze film. The experiments also include measurements of dynamic pressures at the squeeze film land and at the discharge groove. The magnitude of dynamic pressure in the squeeze film land is nearly identical for both sets of flow restrictors, and for small orbit radii, dynamic pressures in the discharge groove have peak values similar to those in the squeeze film land. The identified parameters include the test system damping and the individual contributions from the squeeze film, dry friction in the mechanical seal and structure remnant damping. The identified system damping coefficients are frequency and motion amplitude dependent due to the dry friction interaction at the mechanical seal interface. Squeeze film force coefficients, damping and added mass, are in agreement with simple predictive formulas for an uncavitated lubricant condition and are similar for both flow restrictor sizes. The SFD-mechanical seal arrangement effectively prevents air ingestion and entrapment and generates predicable force coefficients for the range of frequencies tested.

The communication between connected vehicles and traffic signal controllers is defined in SAE Surface Vehicle Standard J2735. SAE J2735 defines traffic signal status messages and a series of 16 confidence levels for traffic signal transitions. This paper discusses a statistical method for tabulating traffic signal data by phase and time of day and populating the SAE J2735 messages. Graphical representation of the red-green and green-yellow transitions are presented from six intersections along a 4-mile corridor for five different time of day timing plans. The case study provided illustrates the importance of characterizing the stochastic variation of traffic signals to understand locations, phases, and time of day when traffic indications operate with high predictability, and periods when there are large variations in traffic signal change times. Specific cases, such as low vehicle demand and occasional actuation of pedestrian phases are highlighted as situations that may reduce the predictability of traffic signal change intervals. The results from this study also opens up discussion among transportation professionals on the importance of consistent tabulation of confidence values for both beginning and end of green signal states. We believe this paper will initiate dialog on how to consistently tabulate important data elements transmitted in SAE J2735 and perhaps refine those definitions. The paper concludes by highlighting the importance of traffic engineers and connected vehicle developers to work together to develop shared visions on traffic signal change characteristics so that the in-vehicle use cases and human-machine interface (HMI) meet user expectations.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

Macroeconomic Summary Overall inflation (1.61%) and core inflation (excluding food and regulated items) (1.11%) both declined beyond the technical staff’s expectations in the fourth quarter of 2020. Year-end 2021 forecasts for both indicators were revised downward to 2.3% and 2.1%, respectively. Market inflation expectations also fell over this period and suggested inflation below the 3% target through the end of this year, rising to the target in 2022. Downward pressure on inflation was more significant in the fourth quarter than previously projected, indicating weak demand. Annual deceleration among the main groups of the consumer price index (CPI) was generalized and, except for foods, was greater than projected in the October report. The CPI for goods (excluding foods and regulated items) and the CPI for regulated items were subject to the largest decelerations and forecasting discrepancies. In the first case, this was due in part to a greater-than-expected effect on prices from the government’s “VAT-fee day” amid weak demand, and from the extension of some price relief measures. For regulated items, the deceleration was caused in part by unanticipated declines in some utility prices. Annual change in the CPI for services continued to decline as a result of the performance of those services that were not subject to price relief measures, in particular. Although some of the overall decline in inflation is expected to be temporary and reverse course in the second quarter of 2021, various sources of downward pressure on inflation have become more acute and will likely remain into next year. These include ample excesses in capacity, as suggested by the continued and greater-than-expected deceleration in core inflation indicators and in the CPI for services excluding price relief measures. This dynamic is also suggested by the minimal transmission of accumulated depreciation of the peso on domestic prices. Although excess capacity should fall in 2021, the decline will likely be slower than projected in the October report amid additional restrictions on mobility due to a recent acceleration of growth in COVID-19 cases. An additional factor is that low inflation registered at the end of 2020 will likely be reflected in low price adjustments on certain indexed services with significant weight in the CPI, including real estate rentals and some utilities. These factors should keep inflation below the target and lower than estimates from the previous report on the forecast horizon. Inflation is expected to continue to decline to levels near 1% in March, later increasing to 2.3% at the end of 2021 and 2.7% at year-end 2022 (Graph 1.1). According to the Bank’s most recent survey, market analysts expect inflation of 2.7% and 3.1% in December 2021 and 2022, respectively. Expected inflation derived from government bonds was 2% for year-end 2021, while expected inflation based on bonds one year forward from that date (FBEI 1-1 2022) was 3.2%.