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Artículos de revistas sobre el tema "Epidemics"

Autor: Grafiati

Publicado: 4 de junio de 2021

Última modificación: 25 de julio de 2025

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1

Moilanen, Ulla, and Sofia Paasikivi. "Esihistoriallisten tartuntatautien ja epidemioiden tutkimusmahdollisuudet Suomessa." Ennen ja nyt: Historian tietosanomat 23, no. 2 (2023): 5–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.37449/ennenjanyt.125929.

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Epidemioiden historiallinen tutkimus painottaa usein kirjallisia lähteitä, mutta tartuntataudit ovat olleet ihmisten seuralaisina esihistoriallisista ajoista lähtien. Käsittelemme artikkelissa esihistoriallisten epidemioiden tutkimuskeinoja. Keskitymme muinaisten taudinaiheuttajien luonnontieteellisiin analyysimenetelmiin ja arkeologisessa aineistossa näkyviin epidemioiden epäsuoriin vaikutuksiin. Epidemioilla voi olla demografisia, poliittisia, sosiaalisia, uskonnollisia ja taloudellisia vaikutuksia, vaikka myös muut tekijät voivat laukaista kriisejä. Mahdollisista kriiseistä kertovat ilmiöt

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2

Karpova, L. S., M. Yu Pelikh, K. M. Volik, N. M. Popovtseva, T. P. Stolyarova, and D. A. Lioznov. "Evaluating the Effectiveness of New Criteria for Early Detection of the Start and Intensity of Influenza Epidemics in Russian Federation." Epidemiology and Vaccinal Prevention 22, no. 6 (2024): 4–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.31631/2073-3046-2023-22-6-4-18.

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Relevance. During the COVID-19 pandemic, an early determination of the start of the influenza epidemic by the incidence of influenza and SARS in total is impossible, due to the similarity of the clinical picture of SARS and lung cases of COVID-19.Aim. The goal is to calculate and test new criteria for early detection of the start of influenza epidemics and their intensity for each of the cities–reference bases (61) of the 2 WHO National Influenza Centers based on the incidence of clinically diagnosed influenza.Tasks. To evaluate the effectiveness of baseline influenza incidence and epidemic in

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3

Renu, Bala, and Srivastava Amit. "Historical Journey of Homoeopathy during Epidemic Diseases in the Light of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Pandemic." International Journal of Science and Healthcare Research 5, no. 2 (2020): 215–33. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3931489.

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Homoeopathy is a therapeutic system founded by German physician Dr Samuel Hahnemann in the late 1700’s and has been used for 200 years around the world in acute and chronic disease conditions. Homoeopathy has also flourished during the times of epidemic diseases and the use of homoeopathic remedies as genus epidemicus and homoeoprophylaxis began with Hahnemann. Although the effectiveness of the homoeopathic remedies in epidemics has been scarcely proved by controlled studies, yet there is vast historical evidence which proves that homoeopathic remedies have been successfully used to prev

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4

Li, Wenjie, Yanyi Nie, Wenyao Li, Xiaolong Chen, Sheng Su, and Wei Wang. "Two competing simplicial irreversible epidemics on simplicial complex." Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science 32, no. 9 (2022): 093135. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0100315.

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Higher-order interactions have significant implications for the dynamics of competing epidemic spreads. In this paper, a competing spread model for two simplicial irreversible epidemics (i.e., susceptible–infected–removed epidemics) on higher-order networks is proposed. The simplicial complexes are based on synthetic (including homogeneous and heterogeneous) and real-world networks. The spread process of two epidemics is theoretically analyzed by extending the microscopic Markov chain approach. When the two epidemics have the same 2-simplex infection rate and the 1-simplex infection rate of ep

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5

Karpova, L. S., T. P. Stolyarova, and N. M. Popovtseva. "Parameters of the Influenza Epidemic in Russia in the 2019-2020 Season." Epidemiology and Vaccinal Prevention 19, no. 6 (2021): 8–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.31631/2073-3046-2020-19-6-8-17.

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Relevance. The National influenza center uses additional criteria: baselines and thresholds for epidemic intensity for early recognition of the onset and assessment of epidemic intensity. Aim. To characterize the parameters of the flu epidemic in the Russian Federation in the 2019-2020 season and assess the intensity of the last 2 epidemics and the effectiveness of baselines and intensity thresholds. Materials and methods. The database of the research Institute of influenza on weekly morbidity, hospitalization, deaths from influenza and ARVI in the cities-reference bases of the National center

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6

Shi, Zizhong, Junru Li, and Xiangdong Hu. "Risk Assessment and Response Strategy for Pig Epidemics in China." Veterinary Sciences 10, no. 8 (2023): 485. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/vetsci10080485.

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Strengthening the analysis and risk assessment of the pig epidemic will help to better prevent and mitigate epidemic risks and promote the high-quality development of the pig industry. Based on a systematic understanding of live pig epidemics, a risk assessment index system was constructed, and the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of pig epidemics in China were explored by the entropy method. In recent years, the overall trend in pig epidemics over time first increased and then decreased; in space, the acceleration of the spread of epidemics across the country weakened. China sti

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7

Garcia-Soto, M., R. E. Fullilove, M. T. Fullilove, and K. Haynes-Sanstad. "The Peculiar Epidemic, Part I: Social Response to AIDS in Alameda County." Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space 30, no. 4 (1998): 731–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1068/a300731.

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The morbidity and mortality caused by epidemics threaten social functioning of complex societies. Societies mount a social response to epidemics in order to contain the potential damage from uncontrolled disease. Despite the threat posed by epidemics, social and contextual ‘vulnerabilities’ often impede efforts to contain epidemics. The AIDS epidemic provides an example of a ‘peculiar’ epidemic, in which threat to social welfare failed to provoke adequate social efforts at containment. In order to examine the miscarriage of epidemic response, we interviewed 31 AIDS providers in Alameda County,

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8

Li, Xin, Xingyuan He, Lu Zhou, and Shushu Xie. "Impact of Epidemics on Enterprise Innovation: An Analysis of COVID-19 and SARS." Sustainability 14, no. 9 (2022): 5223. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su14095223.

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This study analyzes the impact of SARS and COVID-19, the two most severe epidemics to occur in China since the 21st century, on corporate innovation, in order to find a path for sustained innovation growth under the epidemic. For COVID-19, the analysis used data from China’s A-share-listed companies from 2019 to 2020; a longer period (1999–2006) and a wider sample of Chinese industrial enterprises were used for the SARS epidemic. The empirical model was constructed using the difference-in-differences method. Both COVID-19 and SARS were found to have significantly reduced enterprise innovation.

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9

Karpova, L. S., T. P. Stolyarova, N. M. Popovtseva, K. A. Stolyarov, and D. M. Danilenko. "Differences Depending on the Etiology of Influenza Epidemics in 2014-2017." Epidemiology and Vaccine Prevention 17, no. 1 (2018): 13–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.31631/2073-3046-2018-17-1-13-19.

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The goal is to identify features of epidemic process of influenza depending on the etiology of epidemics to clarification of the forecast for future epidemics. Analysis of epidemics of influenza in Russia conducted according to the Federal center for influenza on morbidity, hospitalization and deaths from influenza in 59 Russian cities. The epidemic of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 2015–16 different from the mixed epidemics of influenza (A(H3N2) and B) 2014–15 and 2016–17 high development rate, high incidence of influenza and ARI at its peak, the incidence of hospitalization with a diagnosis of «infl

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10

Zeng, Yuxin, Zhiyu Chen, Xihao Yan, Shengsheng Gong, and Tao Zhang. "Geographical characteristics and formation mechanisms of smallpox epidemics in Hubei Province, China, 1488–1949." PLOS One 20, no. 5 (2025): e0317108. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0317108.

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Smallpox is a highly contagious and ancient disease influenced by natural and social factors. These factors led to the wide spread of smallpox in Hubei Province of China during the historical period. We conducted the spatial and temporal distribution patterns of smallpox epidemics and their formation mechanism in Hubei Province of China during 1488–1949. Based on epidemic history and environmental data, we used M-K test, wavelet analysis, spatial autocorrelation model, epidemic center of gravity model and geographically weighted regression models.In terms of temporal changes, the earliest smal

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11

Kleczkowski, A., and C. A. Gilligan. "Parameter estimation and prediction for the course of a single epidemic outbreak of a plant disease." Journal of The Royal Society Interface 4, no. 16 (2007): 865–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2007.1036.

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Many epidemics of plant diseases are characterized by large variability among individual outbreaks. However, individual epidemics often follow a well-defined trajectory which is much more predictable in the short term than the ensemble (collection) of potential epidemics. In this paper, we introduce a modelling framework that allows us to deal with individual replicated outbreaks, based upon a Bayesian hierarchical analysis. Information about ‘similar’ replicate epidemics can be incorporated into a hierarchical model, allowing both ensemble and individual parameters to be estimated. The model

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12

Newson, R., D. Strachan, E. Archibald, J. Emberlin, P. Hardaker, and C. Collier. "Acute asthma epidemics, weather and pollen in England, 1987-1994." European Respiratory Journal 11, no. 3 (1998): 694–701. http://dx.doi.org/10.1183/09031936.98.11030694.

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Recent epidemics of acute asthma have caused speculation that, if their causes were known, early warnings might be feasible. In particular, some epidemics seemed to be associated with thunderstorms. We wondered what risk factors predicting epidemics could be identified. Daily asthma admissions counts during 1987-1994, for two age groups (0-14 yrs and > or = 15 yrs), were measured using the Hospital Episodes System (HES). Epidemics were defined as combinations of date, age group and English Regional Health Authority (RHA) with exceptionally high asthma admission counts compared to the predic

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13

Mokkapatti, Rupa. "An experimental double-blind study to evaluate the use of Euphrasia in preventing conjunctivitis." British Homeopathic Journal 81, no. 01 (1992): 22–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0007-0785(05)80288-1.

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AbstractA double-blind study using Euphrasia 30c or placebo was carried out during an epidemic of viral conjunctivitis. Nine hundred and ninety-four subjects were available at follow-up, when 48 subjects in the group given Euphrasia and 43 subjects in the placebo group had signs and symptoms of conjunctivitis, a difference which was not statistically significant. The protocol by which Euphrasia was tried may be used without change to scientifically confirm the efficacy of a genus epidemicus. The concept of genus epidemicus lends itself well to experimental double-blind studies in homœopathy du

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14

Fitzpatrick, Mike. "Epidemics of epidemics." British Journal of General Practice 59, no. 566 (2009): 705. http://dx.doi.org/10.3399/bjgp09x471747.

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15

Nakamura, Gilberto M., Ana Carolina P. Monteiro, George C. Cardoso, and Alexandre S. Martinez. "Finite Symmetries in Agent-Based Epidemic Models." Mathematical and Computational Applications 24, no. 2 (2019): 44. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/mca24020044.

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Predictive analysis of epidemics often depends on the initial conditions of the outbreak, the structure of the afflicted population, and population size. However, disease outbreaks are subjected to fluctuations that may shape the spreading process. Agent-based epidemic models mitigate the issue by using a transition matrix which replicates stochastic effects observed in real epidemics. They have met considerable numerical success to simulate small scale epidemics. The problem grows exponentially with population size, reducing the usability of agent-based models for large scale epidemics. Here,

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16

Sanatkar, M. R., C. Scoglio, B. Natarajan, S. A. Isard, and K. A. Garrett. "History, Epidemic Evolution, and Model Burn-In for a Network of Annual Invasion: Soybean Rust." Phytopathology® 105, no. 7 (2015): 947–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1094/phyto-12-14-0353-fi.

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Ecological history may be an important driver of epidemics and disease emergence. We evaluated the role of history and two related concepts, the evolution of epidemics and the burn-in period required for fitting a model to epidemic observations, for the U.S. soybean rust epidemic (caused by Phakopsora pachyrhizi). This disease allows evaluation of replicate epidemics because the pathogen reinvades the United States each year. We used a new maximum likelihood estimation approach for fitting the network model based on observed U.S. epidemics. We evaluated the model burn-in period by comparing mo

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17

Majid, Nawaz Malik, та Muhammad Atif Aslam Rao Dr. "وبائی امراض :تاریخ ،اسباب اور پیش آمدہ معاشرتی مسائل EPIDEMIC DISEASES History, Causes and Social Problems". Al-Misbah Research Journal 03, № 02 (2023): 127–39. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8061558.

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<strong><em>Abstract</em></strong> <em>Epidemics are diseases that have affected a large number of people. The history of epidemics is ancient. In the recent past, the epidemic coronavirus has killed about 100,000 people. This article is aimed at bringing about a research study on epidemics. The paper initiates itself with the significance of the discussion with an analysis of the previous research on this subject. In addition, a history scatch is presented to show some facts and figures about epidemics. The main topic is dealt with by explaining the apparent and substantial causes of the epid

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18

Springbett, A. J., K. MacKenzie, J. A. Woolliams, and S. C. Bishop. "The Contribution of Genetic Diversity to the Spread of Infectious Diseases in Livestock Populations." Genetics 165, no. 3 (2003): 1465–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/genetics/165.3.1465.

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Abstract This article uses stochastic simulations with a compartmental epidemic model to quantify the impact of genetic diversity within animal populations on the transmission of infectious disease. Genetic diversity is defined by the number of distinct genotypes in the population conferring resistance to microparasitic (e.g., viral or bacterial) infections. Scenarios include homogeneous populations and populations composed of few (finite-locus model) or many (infinitesimal model) genotypes. Genetic heterogeneity has no impact upon the expected value of the basic reproductive ratio (the primar

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19

Marani, Marco, Gabriel G. Katul, William K. Pan, and Anthony J. Parolari. "Intensity and frequency of extreme novel epidemics." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118, no. 35 (2021): e2105482118. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2105482118.

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Observational knowledge of the epidemic intensity, defined as the number of deaths divided by global population and epidemic duration, and of the rate of emergence of infectious disease outbreaks is necessary to test theory and models and to inform public health risk assessment by quantifying the probability of extreme pandemics such as COVID-19. Despite its significance, assembling and analyzing a comprehensive global historical record spanning a variety of diseases remains an unexplored task. A global dataset of historical epidemics from 1600 to present is here compiled and examined using no

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20

Kaminsky, Joshua, Lindsay T. Keegan, C. Jessica E. Metcalf, and Justin Lessler. "Perfect counterfactuals for epidemic simulations." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 374, no. 1776 (2019): 20180279. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2018.0279.

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Simulation studies are often used to predict the expected impact of control measures in infectious disease outbreaks. Typically, two independent sets of simulations are conducted, one with the intervention, and one without, and epidemic sizes (or some related metric) are compared to estimate the effect of the intervention. Since it is possible that controlled epidemics are larger than uncontrolled ones if there is substantial stochastic variation between epidemics, uncertainty intervals from this approach can include a negative effect even for an effective intervention. To more precisely estim

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21

Shrum, Wesley, John Aggrey, Andre Campos, et al. "Who’s afraid of Ebola? Epidemic fires and locative fears in the Information Age." Social Studies of Science 50, no. 5 (2020): 707–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0306312720927781.

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Epidemics have traditionally been viewed as the widespread occurrence of infectious disease within a community, or a sudden increase above what is typical. But modern epidemics are both more and less than the diffusion of viral entities. We argue that epidemics are ‘fire objects’, using a term coined by Law and Singleton: They generate locative fears through encounters that focus attention on entities that are unknown or imprecisely known, transforming spaces and humans into indeterminate dangers, alternating appearance and absence. The Ebola epidemic of 2014 had more complex impacts than the

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22

Ahmad, Wasim, Sayed Tauleha, Mohammad Zulkifle, and Ghulamuddin Sofi. "Role of Unani Medicine in Prevention and Treatment of Waba (Epidemics) including COVID-19: A Review." European Journal of Cell Science 2, no. 1 (2020): 01–09. http://dx.doi.org/10.34154/2020-ejcs-0201-01-09/euraass.

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Mankind has faced many hardships like natural disaster, drought and epidemics. Study focuses on epidemics caused by microbes.Unani medicine has a long experience in treating epidemic diseases because its history is as old as the history of human being itself. More or less entire of the civilisations throughout the history became the basis for evolution of Unani medicine. Hippocrates (460-380BC) regarded it asbothart and science, discussed the epidemics and wrote a book on Epidemics. Body is assumed healthy when the humours are balanced. So, Unani scholars have rightly said Fa’il (Active agent)

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23

Karpova, L. S., N. M. Popovtseva, T. P. Stolyarova, and D. M. Danilenko. "Influence of the ways of spreading influenza epidemics across the territory Russia on the peculiarities of the epidemic process in various Federal districts." Journal Infectology 13, no. 4 (2021): 90–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.22625/2072-6732-2021-13-4-90-99.

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Aims. Show the ways of spreading influenza epidemics across the territory of Russia over a long period (1968–2019) and their influence on the incidence of influenza and ARVI in total and separately influenza A (H1N1), A (H3N2) and B in the Federal Districts in the period from 2009 to 2019.Materials and methods. The analysis of influenza epidemics was carried out according to the computer database of the National center for influenza.Results. A retrospective analysis of influenza epidemics shows the absence of inter-epidemic seasons after 1986, the increase in epidemics of mixed etiology and di

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24

Zhao, Xixi, Meijia Li, Naem Haihambo, et al. "Periodic Characteristics of Hepatitis Virus Infections From 2013 to 2020 and Their Association With Meteorological Factors in Guangdong, China: Surveillance Study." JMIR Public Health and Surveillance 9 (June 15, 2023): e45199. http://dx.doi.org/10.2196/45199.

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Background In the past few decades, liver disease has gradually become one of the major causes of death and illness worldwide. Hepatitis is one of the most common liver diseases in China. There have been intermittent and epidemic outbreaks of hepatitis worldwide, with a tendency toward cyclical recurrences. This periodicity poses challenges to epidemic prevention and control. Objective In this study, we aimed to investigate the relationship between the periodic characteristics of the hepatitis epidemic and local meteorological elements in Guangdong, China, which is a representative province wi

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25

Braz, Rui Moreira, Renato Fontes Guimarães, Osmar Abílio de Carvalho Júnior, and Pedro Luiz Tauil. "Spatial dependence of malaria epidemics in municipalities of the Brazilian Amazon." Revista Brasileira de Epidemiologia 17, no. 3 (2014): 615–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/1809-4503201400030004.

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Introduction: In 2010, there were 305 (37.8%) municipalities with malaria epidemics in the Brazilian Amazon. The epidemics spread can be explained by the spatial distribution pattern. Objective: To analyze the spatial dependence, autocorrelation, of the malaria epidemics in the municipalities of this region. Methods: An automated algorithm was used for the detection of epidemic municipalities in 2003, 2007 and 2010. Spatial dependence was analyzed by applying the global and local Moran index on the epidemic months proportion variable. The epidemic municipalities clusters were identified using

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Shachar, Carmel, Tess Wise, Gali Katznelson, and Andrea Louise Campbell. "Criminal Justice or Public Health: A Comparison of the Representation of the Crack Cocaine and Opioid Epidemics in the Media." Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law 45, no. 2 (2019): 211–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1215/03616878-8004862.

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Abstract Context: The opioid epidemic is a major US public health crisis. Its scope prompted significant public outreach, but this response triggered a series of journalistic articles comparing the opioid epidemic to the crack cocaine epidemic. Some authors claimed that the political response to the crack cocaine epidemic was criminal justice rather than medical in nature, motivated by divergent racial demographics. Methods: We examine these assertions by analyzing the language used in relevant newspaper articles. Using a national sample, we compare word frequencies from articles about crack c

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Miettinen, I. T., O. Zacheus, C.-H. von Bonsdorff, and T. Vartiainen. "Waterborne epidemics in Finland in 1998-1999." Water Science and Technology 43, no. 12 (2001): 67–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wst.2001.0713.

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Fourteen waterborne epidemics occurred in Finland during 1998-1999. About 7,300 illness cases were registered in these outbreaks. All except one of the waterborne epidemics were associated with undisinfected groundwaters. An equal number of waterborne epidemics occurred in public and private water systems, but most cases of illness occurred in public water systems. The three largest epidemics comprised 6,700 illness cases. Insufficient purification treatment unable to remove Norwalk-like viruses caused the only waterborne epidemic in a surface water plant. The main reasons for groundwater outb

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28

Zheng, Zhe, Virginia E. Pitzer, Joshua L. Warren, and Daniel M. Weinberger. "Community factors associated with local epidemic timing of respiratory syncytial virus: A spatiotemporal modeling study." Science Advances 7, no. 26 (2021): eabd6421. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abd6421.

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Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes a large burden of morbidity in young children and the elderly. Spatial variability in the timing of RSV epidemics provides an opportunity to probe the factors driving its transmission, including factors that influence epidemic seeding and growth rates. Using hospitalization data from Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York, we estimated epidemic timing at the ZIP code level using harmonic regression and then used a Bayesian meta-regression model to evaluate correlates of epidemic timing. Earlier epidemics were associated with larger household size and gre

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Nassimbwa, Kabanda D. "The Role of Artificial Intelligence in Predicting Epidemics." RESEARCH INVENTION JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH AND PHARMACY 3, no. 2 (2024): 26–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.59298/rijpp/2024/322629.

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Despite tremendous advances in public health, epidemics remain a major concern due to variables such as fast population expansion, increasing travel, and migration. Given the rapidity with which modern epidemics spread, traditional strategies for epidemic prediction and management have frequently proven ineffective. Artificial intelligence (AI) provides a disruptive approach to forecasting and controlling outbreaks. This study investigates the evolution of epidemic prediction, from old statistical methods to modern AI-powered models. It looks at how various AI approaches, such as machine learn

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Earn, David J. D., Junling Ma, Hendrik Poinar, Jonathan Dushoff, and Benjamin M. Bolker. "Acceleration of plague outbreaks in the second pandemic." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117, no. 44 (2020): 27703–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2004904117.

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Historical records reveal the temporal patterns of a sequence of plague epidemics in London, United Kingdom, from the 14th to 17th centuries. Analysis of these records shows that later epidemics spread significantly faster (“accelerated”). Between the Black Death of 1348 and the later epidemics that culminated with the Great Plague of 1665, we estimate that the epidemic growth rate increased fourfold. Currently available data do not provide enough information to infer the mode of plague transmission in any given epidemic; nevertheless, order-of-magnitude estimates of epidemic parameters sugges

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LEGRAND, J., R. F. GRAIS, P. Y. BOELLE, A. J. VALLERON, and A. FLAHAULT. "Understanding the dynamics of Ebola epidemics." Epidemiology and Infection 135, no. 4 (2006): 610–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0950268806007217.

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SUMMARYEbola is a highly lethal virus, which has caused at least 14 confirmed outbreaks in Africa between 1976 and 2006. Using data from two epidemics [in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in 1995 and in Uganda in 2000], we built a mathematical model for the spread of Ebola haemorrhagic fever epidemics taking into account transmission in different epidemiological settings. We estimated the basic reproduction number (R0) to be 2·7 (95% CI 1·9–2·8) for the 1995 epidemic in DRC, and 2·7 (95% CI 2·5–4·1) for the 2000 epidemic in Uganda. For each epidemic, we quantified transmission in different s

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32

Volz, Erik, and Lauren Ancel Meyers. "Epidemic thresholds in dynamic contact networks." Journal of The Royal Society Interface 6, no. 32 (2008): 233–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2008.0218.

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The reproductive ratio, R 0 , is a fundamental quantity in epidemiology, which determines the initial increase in an infectious disease in a susceptible host population. In most epidemic models, there is a specific value of R 0 , the epidemic threshold, above which epidemics are possible, but below which epidemics cannot occur. As the complexity of an epidemic model increases, so too does the difficulty of calculating epidemic thresholds. Here we derive the reproductive ratio and epidemic thresholds for susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR) epidemics in a simple class of dynamic random networks

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33

Ball, Frank. "A note on the total size distribution of carrier-borne epidemic models." Journal of Applied Probability 27, no. 4 (1990): 908–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3214833.

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The coupling method of Ball (1986) is extended to carrier-borne epidemics, thus providing a new proof of a result of Daniels (1972) concerning the total size distribution of Downton's stochastic carrier-borne epidemic. The generalization to multipopulation carrier-borne epidemics is immediate.

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Ball, Frank. "A note on the total size distribution of carrier-borne epidemic models." Journal of Applied Probability 27, no. 04 (1990): 908–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0021900200028072.

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The coupling method of Ball (1986) is extended to carrier-borne epidemics, thus providing a new proof of a result of Daniels (1972) concerning the total size distribution of Downton's stochastic carrier-borne epidemic. The generalization to multipopulation carrier-borne epidemics is immediate.

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Karpova, L. S., K. M. Volik, K. A. Stolyarov, et al. "FEATURES OF EPIDEMIC PROCESS OF INFLUENZA A(H1N1)PDM09 AND A(H3N2) IN RUSSIA FROM 2009 TO 2017." Problems of Virology, Russian journal 63, no. 4 (2018): 177–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.18821/0507-4088-2018-63-4-177-184.

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The goal of this work is to compare the key parameters of influenza epidemics of different etiology. Four epidemics of influenza with predominance of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and 4 epidemics of influenza A(H3N2) were analyzed using the database of the Federal State Research Institute of Influenza on morbidity, hospitalization, deaths from influenza in 59 cities in the period from 2009 to 2017. The intensity of epidemics involving the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 decreased from high to medium, while the intensity of epidemics of influenza A(H3N2) increased from low to medium. In the epidemic of influen

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Nguyen, Quang Thi Thieu, Dao Le Trang Anh, and Christopher Gan. "Epidemics and Chinese firms' stock returns: is COVID-19 different?" China Finance Review International 11, no. 3 (2021): 302–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/cfri-03-2021-0053.

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PurposeThis study investigates the Chinese stocks' returns during different epidemic periods to assess their effects on firms' market performance.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs an event study method on more than 3,000 firms listed on Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges during periods of SARS, H5N1, H7N9 and COVID-19FindingsEpidemics' effect on firms' stock returns is persistent up to 10 days after the event dates. Although the impact varies with types and development of the disease, most firms experience a negative impact of the epidemics. Among the epidemics, COVID-19 has the

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37

Rath, Padmalaya, and Shib Narayan Jana. "A Brief Account of Homoeopathic Approach to Fight COVID-19 Disaster." Homœopathic Links 33, no. 03 (2020): 147–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1055/s-0040-1715889.

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AbstractDisasters are unfortunate but integral part of civilisation. While the incidence of disaster cannot be prevented altogether, the effects can be modified to the extent that there will be minimum or no loss of life, minimum loss to property and quick restoration to normalcy. Virtually in many instances effects can be reduced to nil or negligible if sufficient diligence is practiced. Epidemic diseases are regarded as disasters too. Homoeopathy is a medical system of therapeutics which claims to have effective intervention in epidemics. Any system of medicine that offers to intervene in an

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38

Ball, Frank, and Philip O'Neill. "Strong Convergence of Stochastic Epidemics." Advances in Applied Probability 26, no. 3 (1994): 629–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1427812.

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This paper is concerned with a model for the spread of an epidemic in a closed, homogeneously mixing population in which new infections occur at rate f(x, y) and removals occur at rate g(x, y), where x and y are the numbers of susceptible and infective individuals, respectively, and f and g are arbitrary but specified positive real-valued functions. Sequences of such epidemics, indexed by the initial number of susceptibles n, are considered and conditions are derived under which the epidemic processes converge almost surely to a birth and death process as n tends to infinity. Thus a threshold

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39

Ball, Frank, and Philip O'Neill. "Strong Convergence of Stochastic Epidemics." Advances in Applied Probability 26, no. 03 (1994): 629–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s000186780002646x.

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This paper is concerned with a model for the spread of an epidemic in a closed, homogeneously mixing population in which new infections occur at rate f(x, y) and removals occur at rate g(x, y), where x and y are the numbers of susceptible and infective individuals, respectively, and f and g are arbitrary but specified positive real-valued functions. Sequences of such epidemics, indexed by the initial number of susceptibles n, are considered and conditions are derived under which the epidemic processes converge almost surely to a birth and death process as n tends to infinity. Thus a threshold

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40

Fischer, T., T. Gerwald, S. Lajos, S. Woellert, Ch Kuttler, and J. Draeger. "Modeling the influence of the information domain on countermeasure effectiveness in case of COVID-19." Journal of Physics: Conference Series 2514, no. 1 (2023): 012009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/2514/1/012009.

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Abstract A common way to model an epidemic — restricted to contagion aspects only — is a modification of the Kermack-McKendrick SIR Epidemic model (SIR model) with differential equations. (Mis-)Information about epidemics may influence the behavior of the people and thus the course of epidemics as well. We have thus coupled an extended SIR model of the COVID-19 pandemic with a compartment model of the (mis-)information-based attitude of the population towards epidemic countermeasures. The resulting combined model is checked concerning basic plausibility properties like positivity and boundedne

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Liu, Zhenzhen, Xiaoke Xu, and Jianyun Zhou. "Quantitative effects of network connectivity on epidemics." International Journal of Modern Physics B 34, no. 28 (2020): 2050262. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0217979220502628.

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Epidemics are affected by the connectivity of nodes in networks in addition to the cooperation of infection transmission. We investigate quantitatively the effects of node connectivity on transmission dynamics by comparing epidemic diffusion in null models with gradual connection strength. Results show that: (1) the inhomogeneity of network connectivity accelerates the spreading of epidemics, this phenomenon is more significant in the early stage of propagation; (2) the enhancement of connectivity of homogenous nodes restrains epidemic spreading, and the spreading speed correlates negatively w

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Homicskó, Árpád. "The issues of managing the epidemic situation in the health care system in Hungary." Zbornik radova Pravnog fakulteta, Novi Sad 56, no. 2 (2022): 515–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.5937/zrpfns56-33689.

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In my study, I intend to explore the impact of the current epidemic situation on the health care system in Hungary. To this end, the legal environment applicable to the epidemic situation and the measures related to the health care system in the context of the epidemic situation will be presented. I think that in the 21st century and beyond, it will be increasingly important to deal with emerging epidemics, to which all countries must be able to respond appropriately. Managing the epidemic situations effectively and appropriately is in the interest of society as a whole. Furthermore, public he

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Grabow, B. S., D. A. Shah, and E. D. DeWolf. "Environmental Conditions Associated with Stripe Rust in Kansas Winter Wheat." Plant Disease 100, no. 11 (2016): 2306–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1094/pdis-11-15-1321-re.

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Stripe rust has reemerged as a problematic disease in Kansas wheat. However, there are no stripe rust forecasting models specific to Kansas wheat production. Our objective was to identify environmental variables associated with stripe rust epidemics in Kansas winter wheat as an initial step in the longer-term goal of developing predictive models for stripe rust to be used within the state. Mean yield loss due to stripe rust on susceptible varieties was estimated from 1999 to 2012 for each of the nine Kansas crop reporting districts (CRD). A CRD was classified as having experienced a stripe rus

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Edward, Frank. "Cholera: The Victorian Plague." Tanzania Zamani: A Journal of Historical Research and Writing 13, no. 2 (2021): 181–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.56279/tza20211327.

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The Victorian Britain was swept by five cholera epidemics which led to evolution of sanitary culture that was punctuated by sanitary reforms and engineering. The epidemic made social, political and spatial relations to change. It also led to the emergence of a concept ‘sanitary city’ in the urban planning, a concept that circulated to other parts of the world. Victorian ideas were on the move. Many works on cholera epidemics and sanitary cities discuss mainly about the contributions of few actors, particularly Sir Edwin Chadwick, the main sanitation infrastructures and about a select of choler

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Nesteruk, Igor. "How Re-Infections and Newborns Can Impact Visible and Hidden Epidemic Dynamics?" Computation 13, no. 5 (2025): 113. https://doi.org/10.3390/computation13050113.

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Mathematical modeling allows taking into account registered and hidden infections to make correct predictions of epidemic dynamics and develop recommendations that can reduce the negative impact on public health and the economy. A model for visible and hidden epidemic dynamics (published by the author in February 2025) has been generalized to account for the effects of re-infection and newborns. An analysis of the equilibrium points, examples of numerical solutions, and comparisons with the dynamics of real epidemics are provided. A stable quasi-equilibrium for the particular case of almost co

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Hughes, Cornelius G. "The Piper's Dance: A Paradigm of the Collective Response to Epidemic Disease." International Journal of Mass Emergencies & Disasters 11, no. 2 (1993): 227–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/028072709301100205.

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A content analysis of the literature on epidemics, with particular reference to the American experience with AIDS, reveals the natural history of the response of endangered populations to epidemics. The paradigm contains four sequential phases: discernment, in which the threatened society becomes cognizant of the presence of a spreading lethal infection; a collective trauma with symptoms similar to other natural and man-made disasters and attended by denial, epidemic phobia, scapegoating and retribution guilt; avoidance behavior ruled by rational attempts to lessen the risk of contagion; and r

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Bashabsheh, Murad. "A Combined Model for Simulating the Spatial Dynamics of Epidemic Spread: Integrating Stochastic Compartmentalization and Cellular Automata Approach." International Journal of Mathematical, Engineering and Management Sciences 10, no. 2 (2025): 522–36. https://doi.org/10.33889/ijmems.2025.10.2.026.

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This research focuses on a combined simulation model for analyzing the spatial distribution of epidemics by combining the global mixing assumption of individuals with two-dimensional probabilistic cellular automata (CA). The model presented in this paper is designed to simulate the spatial distribution of diseases in a spatially structured population. It incorporates a stochastic compartment model that uses the mixing regime, a two-dimensional probabilistic CA for constructing a decision support system for controlling epidemics. The model positions elementary populations in a regular two-dimen

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Fisher, Matthew C., Gina L. Koenig, Thomas J. White, and John W. Taylor. "Pathogenic Clones versus Environmentally Driven Population Increase: Analysis of an Epidemic of the Human Fungal PathogenCoccidioides immitis." Journal of Clinical Microbiology 38, no. 2 (2000): 807–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1128/jcm.38.2.807-813.2000.

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For many pathogenic microbes that utilize mainly asexual modes of reproduction, it is unknown whether epidemics are due to either the emergence of pathogenic clones or environmentally determined increases in the population size of the organism. Descriptions of the genetic structures of epidemic populations, in conjunction with analyses of key environmental variables, are able to distinguish between these competing hypotheses. A major epidemic of coccidioidomycosis (etiologic agent, Coccidioides immitis) occurred between 1991 and 1994 in central California, representing an 11-fold increase abov

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Clay, Patrick A., Meghan A. Duffy, and Volker H. W. Rudolf. "Within-host priority effects and epidemic timing determine outbreak severity in co-infected populations." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 287, no. 1922 (2020): 20200046. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2020.0046.

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Co-infections of hosts by multiple pathogen species are ubiquitous, but predicting their impact on disease remains challenging. Interactions between co-infecting pathogens within hosts can alter pathogen transmission, with the impact on transmission typically dependent on the relative arrival order of pathogens within hosts (within-host priority effects). However, it is unclear how these within-host priority effects influence multi-pathogen epidemics, particularly when the arrival order of pathogens at the host-population scale varies. Here, we combined models and experiments with zooplankton

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Castro Blanco, Elisabet, Maria Rosa Dalmau Llorca, Carina Aguilar Martín, et al. "A Predictive Model of the Start of Annual Influenza Epidemics." Microorganisms 12, no. 7 (2024): 1257. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/microorganisms12071257.

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Influenza is a respiratory disease that causes annual epidemics during cold seasons. These epidemics increase pressure on healthcare systems, sometimes provoking their collapse. For this reason, a tool is needed to predict when an influenza epidemic will occur so that the healthcare system has time to prepare for it. This study therefore aims to develop a statistical model capable of predicting the onset of influenza epidemics in Catalonia, Spain. Influenza seasons from 2011 to 2017 were used for model training, and those from 2017 to 2018 were used for validation. Logistic regression, Support

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