Tesis sobre el tema "Petroleum exporting countries"

The thesis adopts a strategic management with an explicit game theory orientation to the analysis of the OPEC coalition. Two games are identified, one between OPEC and the oil majors the MNOCs, (G1) and another between the members of OPEC themselves (G2). The payoff structures of the games are identified using a Delphi methodology, supported by an extensive literature together with output data relating to the OPEC coalition. The analysis reveals prisoners' dilemma structures in the case of G1, and an evolutionary- game, a chicken game in the case of G2. The thesis makes a contribution to knowledge in a number of respects. Coalition behaviour is analysed in terms of evolutionary- stability, an innovation with respect to the study of coalitions. New data is used, as a result of the Delphi procedure. The underlying mathematical structure of the Delphi procedure is set out with reference to the estimation of payoff structures of the respective games. A cardinal utility approach is used as a basis for calculating the payoff matrices involved in the various OPEC games. Further it is hoped the thesis indicates the potential scope of game theory as a tool of strategic analysis. OPEC is playing important roles in: the international oil industry, and the world oil market. Arguably, in the oil industry, OPEC has a number of tasks, including the promotion of international competition. This would best serve its members' interests. With regard to the performance of OPEC to date, the organisation has achieved part of its objectives, but not all of them. In this research the objectives of OPEC have three dimensions: economic, political and technical. The aims of the research are to provide a deeper understanding of OPEC and show its role in the world oil market and industry. The use of the strategic management approach contributes to discover new insights and perspectives of OPEC's behaviour.

Thesis (D.A.)--Illinois State University, 2003.
Title from title page screen, viewed November 15, 2005. Dissertation Committee: Mohammad Tavakoli Targhi (chair), Lawrence McBride, Hassan Mohammadi, Paul Holsinger, Tony Adedze. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 109-119) and abstract. Also available in print.

Thesis (M.A. in Security Studies (Middle East, South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa))--Naval Postgraduate School, December 2008.
Thesis Advisor(s): Looney, Robert E. "December 2008." Description based on title screen as viewed on February 2, 2009. Includes bibliographical references (p. 65-70). Also available in print.

[Summary]: This thesis provides a comprehensive study of OPEC. It seeks to ascertain and analyse the international legal status of OPEC and its characteristics, to examine how OPEC functions and what its stated aims and objectives are, to evaluate the performance of OPEC in the context of these objectives, and to suggest improvements for the future. OPEC was originally established in 1960 by a group of developing oil-producing countries as an institutional response to the need which they all felt to assert their independence and ensure their economic survival. In this context Part One examines and analyses the general pre-history and overall background of OPEC from a variety of different perspectives including but not limited to such relevant areas as international conflicts over the distribution of wealth and power between producers and consumers in particular, and between the developing and developed countries in general. Part Two considers the constitutional legal foundations of OPEC which are to be found in the original OPEC Resolution of 1960 and in its subsequent OPEC Statute (as amended) which defines the Organisation's aims and objectives, its internal structure, its decision-making processes, its financial resources and its dispute settlement procedures. Part Three of the thesis enlarges on this initial survey by examining OPEC's structure, composition, organs and membership in greater detail. Part Four considers OPEC's international legal status and its standing vis-a vis the larger international community and other international organisations. Part Four also considers OPEC in the context of the internationally recognised principle of a state's right to exercise permanent sovereignty over its natural resources, and therefore of the OPEC Members' rights to organise the production, marketing and pricing of their oil resources. Part Four also explores the proposition that although OPEC may not have been founded with the express contemplation of such international legal and economic milestones as the Havana Charter and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) in mind, it has in fact proved to be quite consistent with International Commodity Agreements (ICAs) in more than one respect, while at the same time displaying characteristics which are uniquely different from a typical ICA. Bearing the above in mind, Parts Five and Six seek to examine OPEC's track record since its inception thirty-eight years ago. Part Five examines the decision-making processes and financial contributions in OPEC, while Part Six then focuses on OPEC's actual policies and resulting activities - and their legal significance. Finally, Part Seven is concerned with a general evaluation of the main features and relative failures and successes of OPEC up to now, as well as with a conclusion as to its future role, including - in order to enhance that role - recommendations as to how OPEC's practices and policy could perhaps be improved in the years to come. (N.B.: A more comprehensive summary appears in the Abstract on pages xi - xiv. )

The objectives of this dissertation are to explain the production behavior of OPEC's member countries from 1971 to 1987 and to determine whether there was any structural shift in OPEC's production behavior after the organization attempted to assign a quota to each member. This study focused on political and social as well as economic variables, in order to overcome the misspecification of previous models. In order to achieve the above objectives, the study used the following four models, with modifications: the cartel, competitive, target revenue, and property rights models. The double log multiple linear regression technique was used to operationalize the cartel, competitive, and target revenue models; simple linear regression was used to estimate the property rights model. The cartel model was based not only on economic variables but also on social and political variables. The internal political instability of each OPEC country was measured by the number of armed attacks within the country. The structural shift in OPEC's production behavior between the 1971-1982 period and the 1983-1987 period was evaluated using the Chow-test. The Chow-test showed no significant difference between these two periods for OPEC overall or for individual members. Thus, the two periods were combined so that the study was performed for the entire 1971-1987 period. Because this period of analysis was relatively short, alternative models were applied to pool the data and thereby increase the reliability of the model estimates. A cross-sectional correlated and time-wise auto-regressive model (CCTA) was selected to pool the data and to estimate OPEC's production coefficients. Then each individual OPEC member's production model was estimated and compared to the pooled model. The results indicate that OPEC behaved as a cartel, and that a partial market-sharing hypothesis was significant for all 11 OPEC members. These findings indicate that OPEC was a loose cartel, with only partially effective cooperation on production decisions. Political instability was found to be significant (at the 10-percent level) overall, and it negatively affected production. It was also significant at the 5-percent level for the price-pusher group (Iran, Venezuela, and Algeria). This group was also the only one pooled using least squares with dummy variables (LSDV), because of its common slope and different intercepts. Overall results suggest that OPEC members were basing their production decisions on crude oil prices, excess production capacity, and each member's share of total OPEC output.

The main objective of this study is to contribute toward an analytical and empirical work on the oil-based developing economy of Iran. It focuses on the aggregate behavior of the Iranian economy through a simple linear econometric model. After a survey of the literature on the theoretical framework of macroeconomic models for the developing countries in general, and for the oil exporting developing countries in particular, a linear econometric model for the Iranian economy is formulated and its logical and economical aspects are explained. The proposed model consists of basic consumption, production, foreign trade, and employment relationships. Estimation of the behavioral equations are carried out by Ordinary Least Square and Two Stage Least Square estimators. The model is estimated over the period of 1959-76. Data published by the Plan and Budget Organization of Iran in the 1978 edition of the "Economic Trends of Iran" are used for the estimation of the parameters of the model. Historical simulation of the model has been performed to test the validity and the fitness of the model as a whole. The results obtained from the estimation of the consumption functions seem to indicate that the aggregate Iranian consumption behavior can be best explained by Friedman's Permanent Income Hypothesis. An attempt has been made to estimate the aggregate production function of the urban sector according to various Cobb-Douglas production functions and linear production function with constant returns to scale. All of these specifications gave implausible results. In general, the results of this study demonstrate that the links between different sectors of the Iranian economy are very weak and the import substitution strategy of the government during the period of study failed to establish a genuine domestic industrial base and to reduce its dependence on foreign resources.

In the mid-1990s, most nations, including some major oil exporting countries, joined the World Trade Organisation (WTO) to create a global trading system that was more integrated than ever before. The basic motive behind membership of this organisation was economic growth and industrialisation based on international trade. The theoretical underpinnings which support the idea can be found in the literature review, yet despite these considerable efforts, the trade-development or industrialisation relationship still remains quite ambiguous. In this research we study industrialisation in selected oil exporting nations after they became members of the WTO based on a two-phase analysis approach. In the first stage, we investigate the change in crude oil share in the total annual exports of these nations as the crude oil export ratio (CER) which has been very high, and in the second phase we study export portfolio diversification as an industrialisation index. In fact, the considerable share of crude petroleum in the export portfolio of these countries persuades us to ask whether or not they have successfully changed their comparative advantage from primary to manufactured goods after WTO membership to maximise their benefits from international trade. To examine the change in the industrialisation level in oil exporting countries in two different time periods before and after membership of the WTO, we utilise the crude oil export ratio (CER) for the first phase and a variant of the Balassa revealed comparative advantage (RCA) measure for the second. The CER, tells us to what extent these nations have reduced (or may have increased) their economic dependency on crude petroleum exports after their membership of the WTO. Indeed, a high rate of such a dependency would not only create a more risky export portfolio in international trade but also could be considered as an important characteristic of underdeveloped or even non-industrialised economies. In simple terms, a meaningful shift in the comparative advantage from primary to complex commodities’ production could be revealed in the shape of export diversification in these nations. This shift may enable these nations to be industrialised mostly when such activities are accompanied by a meaningful decrease in the CER as a consequence of WTO-led trade liberalisation. Although it is difficult to change the export specialisation pattern in a nation, it initially could be affected by technology absorption, especially when the level of education and institutions created for the purpose of absorbing internationally diffused knowledge are high in a nation. Therefore, the key contribution of this study is to measure the impact of WTO membership using a new – and a much more comprehensive – method for the very first time. This research consists of seven chapters. The first chapter provides a brief explanation of the goals and objectives of the present study. This chapter also includes the methods which will be utilised to investigate the research questions. The history of trade development and industrialisation studies is discussed in the second chapter – as the literature review – to provide the background for the present research. Chapter three focuses on the methodology and its basic foundations to clarify the way which we investigate the research questions. In the fourth chapter we discuss the essential data and also the related data sources which have been utilised to analyse the economic dependency of the countries in the research population on crude petroleum exports. Chapter Five provides the results of CER analyses which indicate what really happened to economic dependency on crude oil in petroleum exporting nations after their membership of the WTO. Initial and terminal revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) has been analysed systematically based on a Galtonian regression in the sixth chapter to compare the distribution of the RSCA for each nation at two points before and after WTO membership. Finally, with regard to the results of the analyses, the research presents some recommendations in the last chapter.

This thesis focuses on the relationship between the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) economies and global climate change mitigation policies with a view to determining the energy exports demand security risks of OPEC member states. The successful implementation of a universally adopted climate regime has been marred with controversies as different interest groups have raised their concerns about all the options presented so far. OPEC as the major crude oil exporting group in the world has been in the forefront of these debates and negotiations. OPEC’s major concern is the envisaged adverse impacts of the industrialised countries carbon reductions on its members' economies. Several studies have shown that when industrialised countries adopt carbon dioxide emissions reduction policies in line with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, such as carbon taxes and energy efficiency strategies, OPEC’s net price of crude oil decreases at the same time as a reduction in the quantity of crude oil products sold. OPEC believes that such climate change policy-induced fall in crude oil exports revenues would have a significant negative effect on its members' economies. With the limitations related to the assumptions of the existing energy economy models on the impacts of climate change mitigation policies on OPEC’s economies (Barnett et al, 2004), this study opts for a risk based model. This model quantifies the energy exports demand security risks of OPEC members with special interest on crude oil. This study also investigates the effects of carbon reduction policies on crude oil prices vis-à-vis the impacts of crude oil prices on OPEC’s economies. To address these three main issues, this thesis adopts a three-prong approach. The first paper addresses the impacts of climate change mitigation on crude oil prices using a dynamic panel model. Results from the estimated dynamic panel model show that the relationship between crude oil prices and climate change mitigation is positive. The results also indicate that a 1% change in carbon intensity causes a 1.6% and 8.4% changes in crude oil prices in the short run and long run, respectively. The second paper focuses on the impacts of crude oil prices on OPEC economies using a panel vector auto regression (VAR) approach, highlighting the exposure of OPEC members to the volatile crude oil prices. The findings from the panel VAR model show that the relationship between OPEC members’ economic growth and crude oil prices is positive and economic growth in OPEC member states respond positively and significantly to a 10% deviation in crude oil prices by 1.4% in the short run and 1.7% in the long run. The third paper creates an index of the risks OPEC members face when there is a decline in the demand for their crude oil exports. To show these risks, this study develops two indexes to show the country level risks and the contributions to the OPEC-wide risks exposure. The results from the indexes show that OPEC members that are more dependent on crude oil exports are faced with more energy exports demand risks. The findings from this thesis are relevant for the development of a new OPEC energy policy that should accommodate the realities of a sustainable global climate regime. They are also useful to the respective governments of the countries that are members of OPEC and non-OPEC crude oil exporting countries. Finally, the outcomes of this thesis also contribute to the climate change and energy economics literature, especially for academic and subsequent research purposes.

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How have shocks to supply and demand affected global oil prices; and what are key policy implications following the resurgence of oil production in the United States? Highlights: − The recent collapse in global oil prices was dominated by oversupply. − The future of tight oil in the United States is vulnerable to obstacles beyond oil prices. − Opinions on tight oil from the Top 25 think tank organizations are considered. Global oil prices have fallen more than fifty percent since mid-2014. While price corrections in the global oil markets resulted from multiple factors over the past twelve months, surging tight oil production from the United States was a key driver. Tight oil is considered an unconventional or transitional oil source due to its location in oil-bearing shale instead of conventional oil reservoirs. These qualities make tight oil production fundamentally different from regular crude, posing unique challenges. This case study examines these challenges and explores how shocks to supply and demand affect global oil prices while identifying important policy considerations. Analysis of existing evidence is supported by expert opinions from more than one hundred scholars from top-tier think tank organizations. Finally, implications for United States tight oil production as well as global ramifications of a new low price environment are explored.

碩士
淡江大學
國際事務與戰略研究所碩士在職專班
106
Since ancient times, human use of petroleum has mainly focused on lighting, lubrication, and medicine. Modern petroleum is used as a source of energy and chemical raw materials to satisfy human needs for heating, power, and non-natural materials. Because of the nature of oil and humans’ dependence on it over the past two centuries, people have competed for oil and this has led to many wars. This shows the importance of oil to human society. During the periods of 2005～2009 and 2010～2016 oil prices experienced severe fluctuations. This paper uses the “international regime” of international political economics and the “cartel” theory of “Oligopoly market” in economics. In these two periods, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) intervened in the case of oil prices to explore its capabilities, methods of use, and how it self-adjusts when the intervention is ineffective. The study found that a resourceful regulator can effectively maintain an under-performing international regime. In addition, OPEC mainly influences the price of oil by adjusting the supply of oil. If the effect is not as expected, it will use “increase in adjustment rate”, “determining the increase and decrease of output quotas by member states” and “coordination”. Non-oil-exporting countries (Non-OPEC) cooperate with the oil-producing countries, etc. as a response.

Doctor Legum - LLD
African countries are faced with the daunting task of providing a comprehensive regulatory framework for their natural resources. This is at both the international and domestic level. The statement is particularly true for emerging African oil producing countries. Related to the above, it can be argued that production quotas, subsidies, and corruption continue to hinder the full liberalisation of the oil sector globally, and in Africa. Also, these three areas are the genesis of some of the prominent issues in the discussions of trade in energy goods. Although Africa is substantially endowed with natural resources like crude oil, it remains at the bottom of the development pecking order; accordingly, it has to get centrally involved in the debate on the regulation of international trade in oil to encourage development and to benefit from the resource. The World Trade Organisation (WTO) and the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are the most relevant organisations in the collective regulation of production quotas, oil consumption subsidies and the control of corruption in the oil sector. Both organisations, directly for the former, and indirectly for the latter, deal with trade between nations. OPEC‘s mandate is established in the OPEC Statute, while the mandate of the WTO is found in various multilateral and plurilateral agreements. However, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (1994) (GATT), the Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures (SCM), and the Agreement on Government Procurement (GPA) are the most relevant. The Energy Charter Treaty (ECT) is only discussed where relevant. This is because the treaty is based on the WTO framework. Also, several provisions in the WTO agreements are not fully discussed in the ECT. OPEC which deals with regulation of oil production and to some extent oil prices in member countries has an effect on trade of the commodity. The role of the WTO however, is more direct as it regulates international trade of various vi goods and services. Thus this thesis investigates how the above legal frameworks regulate production quotas, subsidies, and corruption in the oil sector. The results of the foregoing investigation are then applied to African countries, such as, Nigeria, Angola (members of both the WTO and OPEC) and Ghana, an emerging African oil producing country, to assess the impact of these international rules on the countries‘ legal regimes. Ghana has recently developed its crude oil sector. The success of the nascent oil sector of this country may depend on the conception or improvement of a comprehensive legal framework, to regulate international trade in oil. It is apparent that without an effective legal framework to regulate international trade in oil, the discovery of oil in Ghana, may not make any long term positive impact on the current economic conditions. Ghana is a member of the WTO; however, it is yet to join OPEC, despite growing debate on its membership in the organisation.

The dissertation addresses the causes and consequences of the 1973-1974 energy crisis. A new postcolonial concept of sovereignty, "permanent sovereignty over natural resources," challenged the structure of the international economy in the early 1950s. The proponents of permanent sovereignty identified the relationship between the industrial nations and raw material producers as a vestige of empire. By gaining control over national resources, Third World leaders hoped to reset the relationship between the developing and developed nations. The concept of permanent sovereignty authenticated new definitions and goals of decolonization and statehood. A new middle ground between U.S. diplomacy and Third World economic thought emerged in international oil politics. Chapters on the 1967 Arab oil embargo, Saudi and Iranian demands in the wake of imperial Britain's Persian Gulf withdrawal, the legal battles over the Iraqi Ba'ath regime's nationalized oil, and the reverberating effects of newly radical Libyan politics, explain how members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) remade permanent sovereignty between 1967 to 1972. OPEC underscored the salience of permanent sovereignty in the international political economy, but it also undermined it. The built-in tension culminated in the 1973-1974 energy crisis. The final chapters discuss how the impregnable sovereignty preached by OPEC and its transnational backers in the New International Economic Order engendered a strategic response from the United States: neoliberal diplomacy. OPEC's cartel politics became a scapegoat for policymakers who simplified and codified neoclassical economic ideas. Market-centered reform developed into an analytical refuge in the political-economic wreckage of the energy crisis. American strategy toward the International Monetary Fund and the United Nations reveal that neoliberal diplomacy became widely influential in U.S. foreign policy.
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