Artículos de revistas: "Prebisch-Singer hypothesis"

1

Sapsford, David. "The Prebisch-Singer terms of trade hypothesis". Economics Letters 18, n.º 2-3 (enero de 1985): 229–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0165-1765(85)90187-9.

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2

Ardeni, Pier Giorgio y Brian Wright. "The Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: A Reappraisal Independent of Stationarity Hypotheses". Economic Journal 102, n.º 413 (julio de 1992): 803. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2234578.

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3

Lutz, Matthias G. "A General Test of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis". Review of Development Economics 3, n.º 1 (febrero de 1999): 44–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-9361.00050.

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4

Harvey, David I., Neil M. Kellard, Jakob B. Madsen y Mark E. Wohar. "The Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: Four Centuries of Evidence". Review of Economics and Statistics 92, n.º 2 (mayo de 2010): 367–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/rest.2010.12184.

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5

Winkelried, Diego. "Unit roots, flexible trends, and the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis". Journal of Development Economics 132 (mayo de 2018): 1–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2017.11.005.

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6

Fahmy, Hany. "A Reappraisal of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis Using Wavelets Analysis". Journal of Risk and Financial Management 14, n.º 7 (12 de julio de 2021): 319. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14070319.

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The Prebisch-Singer (PS) hypothesis, which postulates the presence of a downward secular trend in the price of primary commodities relative to manufacturers, remains at the core of a continuing debate among international trade economists. The reason is that the results of testing the PS hypothesis depend on the starting point of the technical analysis, i.e., stationarity, nonlinearity, and the existence of structural breaks. The objective of this paper is to appraise the PS hypothesis in the short- and long-run by employing a novel multiresolution wavelets decomposition to a unique data set of commodity prices. The paper also seeks to assess the impact of the terms of trade (also known as Incoterms) on the test results. The analysis reveals that the PS hypothesis is not supported in the long run for the aggregate commodity price index and for most of the individual commodity price series forming it. Furthermore, in addition to the starting point of the analysis, the results show that the PS test depends on the term of trade classification of commodity prices. These findings are of particular significance to international trade regulators and policymakers of developing economies that depend mainly on primary commodities in their exports.

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7

Naziri, Mohammad Kazem, Morteza Nemati, Hadi Darabi y Ghasem Raisi. "Review of the Terms of Trade in Selected Countries and Iran". International Journal of Life Sciences 9, n.º 6 (26 de septiembre de 2015): 75–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/ijls.v9i6.12742.

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Nowadays the terms of trade have great importance for developing countries compared to developed countries. Because worsening terms of trade, that all other conditions are constant, reduces economic welfare. It is believed that the decline in the terms of trade of developing countries to developed countries causes the transfer of income from developing countries to developed countries and increases the income gap between these two groups of countries. This paper aims to examine the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis in different countries. The study examines the relationship between net terms of trade and income terms of trade between oil -exporting developing countries, agricultural commodities exporting developing countries and developed countries exporter of manufactured goods as well as the terms of trade of Iran in 1980-2010. Prebisch-Singer hypothesis states about changes in net terms of trade that this variable, changes to the detriment of developing countries and primary commodities exporter (other than oil and agricultural commodities) and to the benefit of developed countries exporter of manufactured goods.

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8

Meyer, F. V. "Prebisch-Singer hypothesis and terms of trade: peripheral capitalism in the 1980s". International Affairs 64, n.º 4 (1988): 679–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2626089.

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9

Bloch, H. "Whither the terms of trade? An elaboration of the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis". Cambridge Journal of Economics 24, n.º 4 (1 de julio de 2000): 461–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cje/24.4.461.

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10

Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, Tsangyao Chang, Zahra (Mila) Elmi y Omid Ranjbar. "Re-testing Prebisch–Singer hypothesis: new evidence using Fourier quantile unit root test". Applied Economics 50, n.º 4 (junio de 2017): 441–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2017.1332751.

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11

John Baffes, By y Xiaoli L. Etienne. "Analysing food price trends in the context of Engel’s Law and the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis". Oxford Economic Papers 68, n.º 3 (6 de abril de 2016): 688–713. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpw011.

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12

Clavijo, Pedro, Jacobo Campo y Henry Mendoza. "Threshold effects and unit roots of real commodity prices since the mid-nineteenth century". Economics and Business Letters 9, n.º 4 (23 de diciembre de 2020): 342–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.17811/ebl.9.4.2020.342-349.

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This paper investigates whether a unit root process and nonlinearities can characterize real commodity prices for six major primary goods. An unconstrained two-regime threshold autoregressive model is used with an autoregressive unit root. Among the main results, it is found that terms of trade for agricultural, mineral, non-tropical, and non-oil goods are nonlinear processes that are characterized by a unit root process. The finding of nonlinearities explains why the deterioration of the terms of trade has been episodic. Additionally, we found there is no statistical evidence supporting the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis for agricultural, mineral, non-tropical, and non-oil goods.

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13

Arezki, Rabah, Kaddour Hadri, Prakash Loungani y Yao Rao. "Testing the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis since 1650: Evidence from Panel Techniques that Allow for Multiple Breaks". IMF Working Papers 13, n.º 180 (2013): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484341155.001.

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14

Arezki, Rabah, Kaddour Hadri, Prakash Loungani y Yao Rao. "Testing the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis since 1650: Evidence from panel techniques that allow for multiple breaks". Journal of International Money and Finance 42 (abril de 2014): 208–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2013.08.012.

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15

Cuddington, John T. "Long-term trends in the Real real prices of primary commodities: Inflation bias and the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis". Resources Policy 35, n.º 2 (junio de 2010): 72–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2009.12.003.

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16

Svedberg, Peter y John E. Tilton. "Long-term trends in the Real real prices of primary commodities: Inflation bias and the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis". Resources Policy 36, n.º 1 (marzo de 2011): 91–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2010.08.003.

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17

Bunzel, Helle y Timothy J. Vogelsang. "Powerful Trend Function Tests That Are Robust to Strong Serial Correlation, With an Application to the Prebisch–Singer Hypothesis". Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 23, n.º 4 (octubre de 2005): 381–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1198/073500104000000631.

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18

ARAUJO, RICARDO AZEVEDO. "Assessing the dynamics of terms of trade in a model of cumulative causation and structural change". Revista de Economia Política 36, n.º 1 (marzo de 2016): 150–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0101-31572016v36n01a09.

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ABSTRACT The motivation for this paper stems from the steady decline in the share of consumer expenditures on goods produced in the global south, coupled with the (empirically ambiguous) Singer/Prebisch hypothesis that this can be explained by a secular decline in the southern terms of trade. Drawing on these sources of inspiration, the paper sets out to study the dynamics of the terms of trade using a multi-sector growth model based on the principle of cumulative causation. The upshot is a North-South model of growth and trade in which the evolution of the terms of trade depends on differential rates of productivity growth in different sectors of the economy - and in which terms of trade dynamics may not be the best guide as to whether or not there is an uneven development problem.

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19

Yang, Grant G. L. "Regional Investigation for Economies of Development Status on Changes in Export Structure of Deterioration Terms of Trade". Business Prospects 2, n.º 1 (1 de junio de 2021): 1–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.52288/bp.27089851.2021.06.01.

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The theory of Deterioration Terms of Trade states that the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactures have a negative deterministic trend. However, the terms of trade for primary commodities have improved significantly because of higher prices of raw materials and natural resources due to the rapid development of some emerging developing countries. Literatures argued that the deterioration in terms of trade is the type of country in which the goods are exported rather than the types of goods exported by such countries are primary or manufactured goods. This paper employs regression models of alternative economies to analyze the correlation between terms of trade and manufactured goods export ratio. Results demonstrated that the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis holds for all the economies except the developed ones, and the ITTs are worsened by increases in the proportion of manufactured goods for all the economies.

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20

Bersenev, V. L. "Economic and Legal Aspects of the Import Substitution Policy in Agriculture in Russia". Zhurnal Economicheskoj Teorii 17, n.º 4 (2020): 922–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.31063/2073-6517/2020.17-4.14.

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Import substitution has become a key factor in the transition of the Russian economy to innovation-driven development. Apart from everything else, the results of testing of the Prebisch — Singer hypothesis point to the need for this transition. The article considers theoretical and legal aspects of Russia’s import substitution policy in agriculture. This sector depends on natural and climatic conditions, it is also characterized by seasonality of production processes and it uses animals and plants as resources for production. Therefore, extraordinary measures are required to organize import substitution in this sphere. Moreover, in accordance with Engel’s law, it is necessary to ensure not only the country’s food independence but also the high quality of agricultural production. To this end, the main principles of import substitution should be enshrined in federal legislation. In this case, the interests of national agricultural producers will be better protected from changes in the political environment.

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21

Serrano, Raúl y Vicente Pinilla. "The terms of trade for agricultural and food products, 1951-2000". Revista de Historia Económica / Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History 29, n.º 2 (25 de julio de 2011): 213–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0212610911000103.

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AbstractThis study aims to answer whether empirical records confirm the existence of a secular decline in the terms of trade affecting primary producers (the Singer–Prebisch hypothesis). The paper analyses the evolution of the terms of trade for agricultural and food products in the second half of the 20thcentury. We obtain sixty new real price indices for internationally traded agricultural products. We conclude, from a long-term perspective, that the deterioration in the terms of trade for agricultural and food products was strong and clear in the second half of the last century. In general, less processed products suffered a very heavy fall in their real prices. However, there was no continuous and persistent deterioration in the terms of trade either as a whole or for the great majority of the agricultural and food product groups (with the exception of natural rubber, textile fibres and other raw materials). Rather, this deterioration occurred in stages.

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22

Geronimi, Vincent y Armand Taranco. "Revisiting the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis of a secular decline in the terms of trade of primary commodities (1900–2016). A dynamic regime approach". Resources Policy 59 (diciembre de 2018): 329–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2018.08.005.

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23

Mbulawa, Strike. "TRADE AND INVESTMENT-LED GROWTH IN SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY (SADC)". EURASIAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE 9, n.º 2 (2021): 79–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.15604/ejef.2021.09.02.002.

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The growth in the gross domestic product (GDP) has been below zero within the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) region in recent years. Some member states have consistently experienced negative growth rates for an extended period which has contributed to low growth for the region on average. The lack of consensus on the findings in literature requires further research work to be done to guide policymakers on the potential sources of growth. This study examines the contribution of trade and investment on growth in the context of SADC. It applies the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to test relationships in both short and long run using annual data for the period 1994 to 2019. Findings confirm the existence of the trade and investment-led growth hypothesis. There is a short run, long run, and joint causality from both explanatory variables to economic growth. Cointegration between growth, trade, and investment is confirmed. Specifically, an increase in investment spurs growth in both the short and long run. Investment expenditure seems to double the growth potential in the long run. Additionally, the study shows that an increase in trade openness retards growth which is consistent with the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis. Results suggest that policies that focus on the development and improvements in fixed investment, locally, help to drive the growth potential. The improvement of capitalization by manufacturing-oriented firms, as opposed to primary product-oriented firms, is ideal.

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24

Uwajumogu, Nkechinyere, Ebele Nwokoye, Innocent Ogbonna y Mgbodichimma Okoro. "Response of Economic Diversification To Gender Inequality: Evidence From Nigeria". International Journal of social Sciences and Economic Review 1, n.º 2 (21 de octubre de 2019): 61–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.36923/ijsser.v1i2.32.

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Purpose: The danger inherent in anchoring the growth prospects of an economy on a single product has long been established and for decades now, Nigeria has remained a mono-product economy with all her foreign exchange earning possibilities anchored only on oil revenue. The paper sought to investigate the imperatives of gender equality in expanding the economic base of Nigeria. Methodology: Based on the assumption of increasing returns to scale for the manufacturing sector and constant returns to scale for the primary sector, it apparently follows that a country’s manufacturing output will grow faster (or slower) than that of the rest of the world if it had an initial comparative advantage in manufacturing (or primary) sector as hypothesized by the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis. Employing Engel-Granger and Error Correction Model in an endogenous growth framework were used in this study. Main Findings: This study found that the existing gender inequality has negative effect on the drive to diversify the economy by reducing the potential pool of human capital and promoting gaps in opportunities. Applications: These programmes will help on female self-employment, increased ratio of female to male labour force participation rate and a reduction in the ratio of female to male in vulnerable employment should be included in policy formulations. Novelty/Originality: The efforts should be sustained that totally remove or reduce to their barest minimum all patriarchal tendencies that exploit the female gender and place them at unequal gender relations. It is also recommended that social institutions such as social protection mechanisms should be entrenched as an avenue to reduce the vulnerabilities faced by women.

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25

Bagchi, Sagnik y Surajit Bhattacharyya. "Are export earnings from India’s bilateral intra-industry trade with the US and China robust enough?" International Journal of Development Issues 20, n.º 3 (9 de agosto de 2021): 374–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijdi-02-2021-0045.

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Purpose This paper aims to explore whether India’s export basket in the bilateral intra-industry trade (IIT) with two of its top trading partners characterize robust export earnings or not. This is pertinent for two reasons. First, India has a persistent problem of current account deficit for over decades now. Second, whether India’s export diversification strategy by participating in global value chains to improve export share in the world market led to the problem of the fallacy of composition. Design/methodology/approach This study considers bilateral trade data between India-USA and India-China at the HS-6 digit level over the period 1990–2018. The magnitude of total IIT is computed using the Grubel and Lloyd (1971) index. This paper then uses the unit value dispersion criterion to disentangle the magnitude of total IIT into horizontal and vertical IIT. Through a stepwise econometric exercise, this paper explores the attributes of exported goods in the IIT basket in terms of the directions of ToT, export share and export-price elasticity. Findings Across the two country pairs, the major contributors to the upsurge in IIT are five manufacturing industry groups of chemical, plastics and rubber, textiles, base metals and machinery and mechanical appliances. Across the industry groups, the dominant form of IIT has been low vertical IIT. Most of the industry groups do not characterize robust export earnings as the commodity groups have an elastic demand and an increasing trend of Terms of Trade (ToT). The exceptions are the industry groups of chemicals and textiles in India-China and India-USA, respectively. Research limitations/implications The concern of slim export earnings in most industry groups offers scepticism in maintaining the sustainability of the current account. The problem of the fallacy of composition also cannot be ruled out given the dominance of low vertical IIT. This study argues that these industry groups need to engage in labour market reforms and require access to easy credit to achieve competitiveness in the world market. Originality/value The analysis performed in this paper attempts to integrate the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis in the context of IIT. Empirical evidence to such an issue is not profound.

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26

"The Singer-Prebisch hypothesis a statistical evaluation". Cambridge Journal of Economics, diciembre de 1986. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.cje.a035006.

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27

Meng, Ming, Junsoo Lee y James E. Payne. "RALS-LM unit root test with trend breaks and non-normal errors: application to the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis". Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics 21, n.º 1 (1 de enero de 2017). http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/snde-2016-0050.

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AbstractThis study proposes a new unit root test that allows for structural breaks in both the intercept and the slope, and adopts the residual augmented least squares (RALS) procedure to gain improved power when the error term follows a non-normal distribution. The new test using the RALS procedure is more powerful than the usual LM test which does not incorporate information on non-normal errors. Our test is free of nuisance parameters that indicate the locations of structural break. It is also free of the spurious rejection problem. Thus, the rejection of the null hypothesis can be considered as more accurate evidence of stationarity. We apply the new test on the recently extended Grilli and Yang index of 24 commodity series from 1900 to 2007. Our empirical findings provide significant evidence that primary commodity prices are stationary with one or two trend breaks. However, compared with past studies, our findings provide even weaker evidence to support the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis.

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28

Harvey, David I., Neil Kellard, Jakob B. Madsen y Mark E. Wohar. "Erratum to 'The Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: Four Centuries of Evidence' (Review of Economics and Statistics, 2010, 92, 367-377)". SSRN Electronic Journal, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2202900.

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29

Bunzel, Helle y Timothy J. Vogelsang. "Powerful Trend Function Tests That are Robust to Strong Serial Correlation with an Application to the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis". SSRN Electronic Journal, 2003. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.397520.

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30

Nwokoye, Ebele Stella, Clement Izuchukwu Igbanugo y Stephen Kelechi Dimnwobi. "DOMESTIC MACROECONOMIC DRIVERS OF INDUSTRIALIZATION IN NIGERIA: STATUS AND PROSPECTS FROM THE MANUFACTURING SUB-SECTOR". UNIZIK JOURNAL OF BUSINESS 1, n.º 1 (5 de octubre de 2018). http://dx.doi.org/10.36108/unizikjb/8102.10.0140.

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While most advanced economies are in the process of de-industrializing their economies, efforts by successive governments to transform the economy of Nigeria, from a commodity-driven to an industrialized one, has not yielded much fruit despite several industrial policies and reforms. In Nigeria, the problem of industrialization is not the difficulty in attaining economic growth but the predicament of the extent to which attention is paid to infrastructure, human capital, private sector credit, technology, foreign direct investment, domestic price and exchange flexibility as determinants of the manufacturing sub-sector’s utilization capacity rate and its productivity index. Based on the United Nations/World Bank success yardsticks with theoretical framework rooted in the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis and the endogenous growth model, this study utilizes the K-class estimation procedure on Nigeria’s time series between 1990 and 2016. The result obtained indicate that infrastructural development, appropriate moderate institutional frameworks, bank credit, foreign direct investment, electricity, a stable exchange rate, low inflation and economic diversification are key drivers of industrialization. The findings also confirm that unless the Nigerian economy achieves improved infrastructure delivery and institutional framework as well as stable domestic and currency prices, the efforts towards economic diversification may be counterproductive. It is therefore expedient that Nigeria focuses on building strong macroeconomic fundamentals that would accentuate its take-off to industrialization.

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