Tesis: "Project overrun"

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Ojo, Emmanuel Opeyemi. "Project Managers' Capacity-Planning Practices for Infrastructure Projects in Qatar". ScholarWorks, 2019. https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations/7320.

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Infrastructure project delays and cost overrun are caused by ineffective use of organizational skills, processes, and resources by project managers in the construction industry. Cost overrun and schedule delay in Qatari infrastructure projects have had damaging effects on the national economy by way of claims and litigation, contractual disputes, delays in dependent projects, and project abandonment. The purpose of this qualitative case study was to explore the perceptions of project managers regarding how they utilize capacity-planning practices to mitigate project schedule delay and cost overrun in government-funded infrastructure projects in Qatar. This study was framed by three conceptual models developed by Gill to outline the capacity management needs within a construction company: (a) the time horizon model, (b) the individual-organization-industry levels model, and (c) the capacity development across components model. Date were collected from semistructured interviews with 8 participants, observational field notes, and archival data regarding Qatari infrastructure project managers' experiences in capacity-planning practices. Thematic analysis of textual data and cross-case synthesis analysis yielded 5 conceptual categories that encompassed 15 themes. The conceptual categories were (a) resources to meet performance capacity, (b) knowledgeable and skillful staff, (c) short- and long-term planning strategy, (d) cost overrun issue, and (e) time management. Findings may be used to promote timely completion of infrastructure projects, which may benefit citizens, construction companies, and the economy of Qatar.

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2

Han, Sedat. "Estimation Of Cost Overrun Risk In Interrnational Project By Using Fuzzy Set Theory". Master's thesis, METU, 2005. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12606032/index.pdf.

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In the global construction market, most construction companies are willing to undertake international projects in order to maximise their profitability by taking advantage of attractive emerging markets and minimise dependence on unfavorable domestic market conditions. In order to be awarded a contract in highly competitive global construction market, companies should excel in choosing the most attractive markets and prepare winning bids for the selected construction projects in those markets. While preparing bids, the major concern of companies is to offer an optimum price that will enable them to earn enough profits and win the contract at the same time, where profit making ability is strongly correlated with proper estimation of a risk premium that is added onto the estimated cost of the project. Due to the nature of construction works, there are lots of uncertainties associated with the project, market and country conditions. Therefore, how the profitability of the project changes with occurrence of various risk events, in other words, the sensitivity of project costs to risk events, should be estimated by bidders realistically. In this study, fuzzy set theory is used to estimate cost overrun risk in international projects at the bidding stage. The objective is to propose a methodology which can be used by bidders to quantify cost overrun risk so that a realistic risk premium may be determined. A fuzzy risk rating approach is proposed to quantify cost overrun risk rating, which takes into account of risks characterised in international construction projects. For this purpose, risk sources have been identified and a risk model is put forward by using influence diagramming method. Based on this risk model, a fuzzy risk rating algorithm has been defined and software has been developed to conduct fuzzy risk rating calculations easily. After a decision-maker inserts the necessary inputs related with project and country risk factors, the output of the software is a rating that takes into account of all factors that may affect cost overrun risk in international construction projects. The reliability of the algorithm and developed software have been tested by an application on a real construction project. The proposed methodology and decision support tool have been proved to be reliable for the estimation of cost overrun risk while giving bidding decisions in international markets.

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Ahiaga-Dagbui, Dominic Doe. "Rethinking construction cost overruns : an artificial neural network approach to construction cost estimation". Thesis, University of Edinburgh, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/1842/10454.

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The main concern of a construction client is to procure a facility that is able to meet its functional requirements, of the required quality, and delivered within an acceptable budget and timeframe. The cost aspect of these key performance indicators usually ranks highest. In spite of the importance of cost estimation, it is undeniably neither simple nor straightforward because of the lack of information in the early stages of the project. Construction projects therefore have routinely overrun their estimates. Cost overrun has been attributed to a number of sources including technical error in design, managerial incompetence, risk and uncertainty, suspicions of foul play and even corruption. Furthermore, even though it is accepted that factors such as tendering method, location of project, procurement method or size of project have an effect on likely final cost of a project, it is difficult to establish their measured financial impact. Estimators thus have to rely largely on experience and intuition when preparing initial estimates, often neglecting most of these factors in the final cost build-up. The decision-to-build for most projects is therefore largely based on unrealistic estimates that would inevitably be exceeded. The main aim of this research is to re-examine the sources of cost overrun on construction projects and to develop final cost estimation models that could help in reaching more reliable final cost estimates at the tendering stage of the project. The research identified two predominant schools of thought on the sources of overruns – referred to here as the PsychoStrategists and Evolution Theorists. Another finding was that there is no unanimity on the reference point from which cost performance could be assessed, leading to a large disparity in the size of overruns reported. Another misunderstanding relates to the term “cost overrun” itself. The experimental part of the research, conducted in collaboration with two industry partners, used a combination of non-parametric bootstrapping and ensemble modelling with artificial neural networks to develop final project cost models based on about 1,600 water infrastructure projects. 92% of the validation predictions were within ±10% of the actual final cost of the project. The models will be particularly useful at the pre-contract stage as they will provide a benchmark for evaluating submitted tenders and also allow the quick generation of various alternative solutions for a construction project using what-if scenarios. The original contribution of the study is a fresh thinking of construction “cost overruns”, now proposed to be more appropriately known as “cost growth” based on a synthesises of the two schools of thought into a conceptual model. The second contribution is the development of novel models of construction cost estimation utilising artificial neural networks coupled with bootstrapping and ensemble modelling.

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Gozleveli, Farideh V. "An Investigation of Project Dependencies and Risks in Project Schedule Slippage and Effort Overrun in the Engineering Computing Organization". NSUWorks, 2002. http://nsuworks.nova.edu/gscis_etd/543.

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The purpose of the author in this dissertation was to investigate relationships between project dependencies and risks and the project schedule slippage and effort overrun in the Engineering Computing Organization of a leading electronic communication company. The rationale for this study was to provide a simple mechanism for the project leaders enabling them to follow their project plan more closely. Engineering Computing (EC) provides support services for all workstations, servers, Computer Aided Design (CAD) applications, and Computer Aided Engineering (CAE) applications in a leading electronic communication company. This organization is comprised of several major support groups: Service Center, Systems/Servers (USS), Network Infrastructure, Electrical/Mechanical CAD Applications, Computer Aided Software Engineering (CASE) Applications, Product Data Management (PDM) Tools, Web Technology, and Process Engineering teams. These teams develop, implement and maintain new computing technologies at a facility with over 3000 users. The majority of the human resources in these interdisciplinary teams are involved in project activities. At any given time, there are multiple projects in progress competing for the following shared resources: machines, equipment, and human resources. These projects often have dependencies to external Computing Technology Suppliers; that is, Network, Hardware, and software products. EC's timely delivery of the engineering systems and tools directly impacts the company's ability to succeed in reaching its cycle time reduction goals in new product development. The managers of EC have been unequivocally interested in the methods, tools and processes that help the organization to better understand and manage project schedule slippage and effort overruns. In this dissertation, a selected sample of completed projects at EC was examined. The researcher designed a questionnaire and conducted interviews with project leaders involved in the selected sample projects. Two cause and effect diagrams were developed to present the categories of reasons associated with the project delays and effort overruns. The inferential statistics testing provided further information on the project characteristics that further exposed the projects to risk of schedule delays and effort overrun. This research study revealed that the top three high-level categories having the largest weights on the schedule delays were supplier product, managerial, and product development. The supplier category that consisted of poor supplier product quality, late delivery and inadequate support sub-categories was the dominant reason for schedule delays in the Engineering Computing projects. Twenty nine percent of the project schedule delays were resulted from having dependencies to the suppliers (external entities). The top three high-level categories of reasons having the largest weights on the effort overruns were rooted to product development, personnel, and planning and execution. Product development category consisted of the reasons resulting in effort overrun introduced during the development lifecycle and processes. The major sub-categories under product development category included scope creep, insufficient information on requirements, and design/code complexity. This category accounted for 40% of the effort overruns in the projects analyzed in this research study. Examination of project schedule delays and effort overruns by project size, type or dependencies in this research study allowed establishing the following conclusions: software projects were exposed to risks of having significantly higher schedule slippage when compared to projects of type "installation" or "documentation", large size projects were exposed to risks of having higher schedule slippage when compared to smaller size projects, projects with dependency to external organizations were exposed to risks of having higher schedule slippage when compared to projects with no dependency to external entities, and software projects were exposed to risks of having higher effort index (cost overrun) when compared to projects of type "documentation", "evaluation", and "installation". These findings provided impetus to the project leaders to improve their project scheduling, effort estimation, risk assessment and risk management processes and practices based on the project characteristics.

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5

Creedy, Garry D. "Risk factors leading to cost overrun in the delivery of highway construction projects". Queensland University of Technology, 2006. http://eprints.qut.edu.au/16399/.

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Accurate client budget estimates are critical to the initial decision-to-build process for the highway construction projects. This decision-to-build point in a project's development is seen as the international standard for measuring any subsequent cost estimate inaccuracies involved (National Audit Office/Department of Transport, 1992; World Bank, 1994; Nijkamp and Ubbels, 1999), with accuracy being defined as the difference between the initial project estimate at the decision-to-build stage and the real, accounted project cost determined at the time of project completion. Expressed as a percentage of estimated cost, this is often termed cost escalation, cost overrun or cost growth, and occurs as a result of many factors, some of which are related to each other, but all are associated with forms of risks. The analysis of these risks is often a necessary step for the improvement of any given estimating system and can be used to diagnose trouble spots and to pinpoint areas where project estimating accuracy improvement might be obtained. In this research, highway projects in Queensland, Australia that have suffered significant cost overrun are analysed. The research seeks to address the gap in the knowledgebase as to why highway projects overrun their costs. It focuses on understanding how client projects budgets go wrong, when dealing with project risk. The foundation for this research is drawn from the post-mortem analysis of highway projects, each costing in excess of A$1m and whose final total expenditure exceeded budget by 10% or greater. The research identifies client risk variables which have contributed to significant cost overrun and then uses factor analysis and also expert elicitation, using nominal group technique, to establish groups of importance ranked client risks. Stepwise multivariate regression analysis is then used to investigate any correlation of these risks, along with project attributes such as highway project type, indexed project cost, geographic location and project delivery method to the percentage of cost overrun. The research results indicates a correlation between the reciprocal of project budget size and percentage cost overrun that can be useful in clients determining more realistic decision-to build highway budget estimates when taking into account project size in relation to economy of scale.

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Mitra, John Paul, Joseph Shrestha, Jeremy Ross y Jinseok Hong. "Analysis of Construction Cost Variation of Construction Manager General Contractor (CM/GC) Project". Digital Commons @ East Tennessee State University, 2019. https://dc.etsu.edu/etsu-works/5472.

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Cost overrun is prevalent in the construction industry. Usually, an owner sets a budget at the preliminary phase of a project which changes over time. Past studies are focused on analyzing the cost growth of design-bid-build projects during construction. Limited efforts have been made to analyze details of projects delivered with the Construction Manager General Contractor (CM/GC) method. This study tracks and analyzes the construction cost variation of a project from the conceptual phase to the design completion phase. The analysis is presented with a case study of a new stadium construction project. It identifies that the changes in the scope and design of the project due to the change in available budget were a major reason for variation in the cost estimates over time. Further, this study identifies a) trades with the highest variation in subcontractors’ bids, b) trades that were most overestimated, and c) trades that were most underestimated. The findings of this study is expected to aid owners, designers, and contractors of future projects in improving the preparation, planning, and estimating of future projects; reducing cost variation within trades; and optimizing the amount of contingency required to ensure the successful completion of similar projects.

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7

Saad, Lina. "Omfattningsändringar i infrastrukturprojekt : En fallstudie med fokus på ett tunnelbaneprojekt i tidiga skeden". Thesis, KTH, Fastigheter och byggande, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-298311.

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Transportinfrastruktursystem spelar en viktig roll i stadsutvecklingen. Nyttjandet av underjordiska utrymmen för transportsystem ökar alltmer och används som potentiella lösningar för att lösa urbaniseringsproblem. För att möta den snabba befolkningstillväxt som Stockholm står inför initierade regeringen Stockholmsöverenskommelsen 2013 som innebar en omfattande utbyggnad av tunnelbanenätet samt en ökad bostadsbebyggelse. Tunnelbaneutbyggnaden är i Sverige den första att genomföras på trettio år och projektet har i det tidiga skedet redan ändrats i omfattning i två etapper. Syftet med studien är att bidra till en ökad förståelse inom området inför framtida projekt av samma karaktär. Målsättningen är att undersöka vilka faktorer som påverkar projektets benägenhet att ändras och hur dessa faktorer i sin tur påverkar projektledarens möjligheter att leda projektet. Problemet avgränsas till ett beställarperspektiv i tidiga skeden och studeras i en svensk kontext. Forskningen har genomförts som en kvalitativ fallstudie. Fallstudien består av dels en intervjustudie dels en dokumentstudie. Det studerade fallet representerar projekt Akalla-Barkarby som är ett av de delprojekt som ingår i Stockholmsöverenskommelsen. Studien har identifierat ett antal faktorer som antas påverka projektomfattningen till en större benägenhet att ändras. Dessa faktorer är relaterade till dels de förutsättningar som låg till grund för projektet i och med investeringsbeslutet dels komplexiteten i projektsystemet. Dessa faktorer skapar osäkerheter och begränsar projektledarens möjligheter att leda projektet.
Transportation infrastructure systems play an important role in urban development. The use of underground spaces for transport systems is increasing and is viewed as a potential solution to solve urbanization problems. To meet the rapid population growth that Stockholm is facing, the government initiated the Stockholm Agreement in 2013, which entailed an extensive expansion of the metro system and an increased housing development. The metro system expansion in Sweden is the first to be completed in thirty years and the project has in the early stages already changed in scope twice. The purpose of the study is to contribute to an increased understanding in the field for future projects of the same nature. The aim is to investigate the factors that affect the project's propensity to change and how these factors in turn affect the project manager's opportunities to lead the project. The problem is limited to a Client perspective in the early stages and is studied in a Swedish context. The research has been carried out as a qualitative case study. The case study consists partly of an interview study and partly of a document study. The case represents the Akalla - Barkarby project, which is one of the sub-projects included in the Stockholm Agreement. The study has identified several factors that are assumed to influence the project scope to a greater tendency to change. These factors are related partly to the preconditions of the project based in the investment decision and partly to the complexity of the project system. These factors create uncertainties and limit the project manager's opportunities to lead the project.

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Kriebel, Matilda y Emma Wolgsjö. "Proaktiv ändringshantering i uppstart av byggprojekt : En fallstudie om hur projektledare kan förebygga kostnader för tillägg i mindre byggprojekt". Thesis, Högskolan i Gävle, Industriell ekonomi, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hig:diva-30309.

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A project can be defined as a temporary work that is within the scope of time and budget in terms of achieving a project goal. Due to the fact that construction projects are unique and usually very complex, project management therefore requires a working method that is adapted to the prerequisites of the project. The project manager's responsibility to follow up on the budget and ensure that resources such as working hours and consulting services are distributed correctly, is becoming increasingly challenging as the change paradox shows that flexibility decreases and costs for changes increase as the project progresses. Exceeding the project budget in construction projects has today become a global phenomenon and involves several negative social effects. Scientific studies show that the increased costs can be derived from deviations such as additions and changes during the construction project. On the other hand, there are perceived gaps in the literature for which factors affect the extent of these and thus became the study's area of investigation. Based on the scientific gap, the study aims to analyze the startup process in smaller construction projects with regard to identifying the factors that have an impact on additions, but also to review how project managers can proactively manage these factors in order to reduce the risk of increased deviations. To answer the research questions and purpose, a qualitative case study has been applied to a global consulting company in the construction industry, where semi-structured interviews were conducted with five project managers at the company. The result of the study shows that project managers do not take preventive measures or work to prevent deviations in the startup process. Based on a thematic analysis of the results, factors with an impact on deviations have been identified in three areas; systematics, communication and experience and competence. The study has shown that increased costs for additions and changes can be deduced from different approaches to project management and misleading information, inadequate requirement specification that leaves room for own interpretation, unspecified communication channels, conflicts, lack of competence and abrupt completions of the project. In order to achieve a more proactive startup process in order to prevent increased costs for additions and changes, project managers should ensure a clear requirement specification by discussing important issues and decisions, requirements and expectations with support from templates and checklists. To avoid misunderstandings and conflicts, a communication plan can be established. Finally, the choice of project model should be established and routines for final reporting should be introduced to create a learning organisation that increases the project managers' self-insight and competence regarding increased costs for additions and project changes. The theoretical contribution of the study is the identified factors within three areas as well as suggestions for how project managers can facilitate the management of additions in the startup process of construction projects.
Ett projekt kan definieras som ett tillfälligt arbete som förhåller sig inom ramarna för tid, budget och omfattning i avseende att uppnå ett projektmål. Med anledning av att byggprojekt är unika och vanligen mycket komplexa, är projektledare i behov av verktyg och arbetsmetoder som anpassas utifrån projektets förutsättningar. Projektledarens ansvar att följa upp budget och se till att resurser såsom arbetstid och konsulttjänster fördelas rätt, blir allt mer utmanande under projektets gång då ändringsparadoxen påvisar att flexibiliteten minskar och kostnader för ändringar ökar i takt med projektets fortgång. Överskridande av projektbudget inom byggprojekt har idag kommit att bli ett globalt fenomen och innebär flera negativa samhällseffekter. Vetenskapliga studier visar att de ökade kostnaderna kan härledas till tillägg och ändringar under byggprojektet. Däremot upplevs det finnas luckor i litteraturen för vilka faktorer som inverkar på omfattningen för dessa och detta blev således studiens undersökningsområde. Utifrån det vetenskapliga gapet syftar studien till att analysera uppstartsprocessen i mindre byggprojekt i avseende att identifiera de faktorer som har en inverkan på tillägg, men även till att se över hur projektledare kan hantera dessa faktorer för att minska risken för ökade kostnader vid tillägg. För att besvara rapportens frågeställningar och syfte har en kvalitativ fallstudie tillämpats hos ett globalt konsultbolag inom byggbranschen, där semistrukturerade intervjuer genomfördes med fem projektledare på företaget. Resultatet av studien visar att projektledare inte vidtar förebyggande åtgärder eller arbetar för att förhindra tillägg i uppstartsprocessen. Utifrån en tematisk analys av resultatet har faktorer med en påverkan på tillägg kunnat identifieras inom tre områden; systematik, kommunikation samt erfarenhet och kompetens. Studien har visat att ökade kostnader vid tillägg och ändringar går att härleda till olika tillvägagångssätt vid projektledning och vilseledande information, bristfällig kravspecifikation som lämnar utrymme för egen tolkning, ospecificerade kommunikationsvägar, konflikter, bristande kompetens hos projektledaren samt abrupta projektavslut. För att uppnå en mer proaktiv uppstartsprocess i syfte att förhindra ökade kostnader vid tillägg och ändringar bör projektledare säkerställa en tydlig kravspecifikation genom att diskutera viktiga frågor och beslut, krav och förväntningar med stöd från mallar och checklistor. För att undvika missförstånd och konflikter kan en kommunikationsplan upprättas. Avslutningsvis bör val av projektmodell fastställas och rutiner för slutrapportering införas för att skapa en lärande organisation som ökar projektledarnas självinsikt och kompetens vad gäller ökade kostnader för tillägg och ändringar. Studiens teoretiska bidrag är bidragsfaktorer som identifierats inom tre områden samt förslag till hur projektledare kan underlätta hantering av tillägg i uppstartsprocessen av byggprojekt.

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Kim, Byung Cheol. "Forecasting project progress and early warning of project overruns with probabilistic methods". [College Station, Tex. : Texas A&M University, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/ETD-TAMU-2046.

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10

Thomas, John Heulyn. "Managing a metro rail project to avoid cost overruns". Thesis, University of Southampton, 2009. https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/195599/.

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While technical failures remain the most common triggers for overruns in metro projects, the causes have not typically been deficiencies in the underlying engineering principles but in project management. This work involves the complementary use of requirements and risk management processes and real options theory. The Crossrail project provides a case study with a scheme design for an underground station at Farringdon being considered in detail. The requirements process documented in this research is capable of providing an interactive format for managing project requirements and importantly, any changes that are made to them. This is achieved using commercial software (Telelogic DOORS®) and it is shown that this process is effective when working on multidisciplinary metro projects. This process is then expanded to consider the interaction between risks on a project. This is identified as being crucial given the impacts that technical, project and external risks can have on each other. The developed risk process therefore allows the interactions between all risks to be recorded and provides a holistic view of all risks for management purposes. The requirements and risk processes are complemented by a fuzzy logic methodology to evaluate global and elemental risks (such as political or client risks). Over 50 external risk factors which are known to have caused overruns on previous projects are identified and the performance of Crossrail is evaluated against each risk factor by way of a questionnaire circulated to industry professionals. An approach to avoiding cost overruns is demonstrated by the application of real options theory where the chosen design for Farringdon station is developed alongside an alternative design. Real options theory is used to value the cost of implementing the design alternative should it be needed during the project construction cycle due to cost increases and the potential occurrence of major risks. This implementation cost is presented as a fixed cost agreed prior to construction rather than being an added cost to the agreed budget once construction has started. It is proposed that using real options in this context can avoid significant cost overruns by predetermining the value of payments to be made for changing from one design to another. This thesis will show how additions and adjustments to existing processes and the inclusion of real options valuation in the procurement of metro projects can help practitioners avoid cost overruns in a metro rail project.

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Kjellman, Felix y Hugo Pettersson. "Budgetöverskridanden i kommunala investeringsprojekt : En fallstudie på en liten kommun". Thesis, Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för ekonomi, teknik, konst och samhälle, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-85188.

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Världen över sker ständiga budgetöverskridanden. Offentliga verksamheter har inte varit något undantag för dessa kostnadsöverskridanden, vilket skapar incitament till att förstå varför de uppstår. I de offentliga projekten drabbas fler än bara de projektansvariga vid budgetöverskridelser. Det är samhället i stort som får betala för arbetet eftersom det är skattefinansierade projekt. Examensarbetet utgör en fallstudie som genomfördes med syftet att skapa förståelse för varför budgetöverskridanden sker i en liten kommun. För att uppnå syftet har både sekundär- och primärdata använts i form av en djupgående dokumentanalys vilken kompletterats av intervjuer. Som fallstudieobjekt har en liten kommun använts för att samla in material. Arbetets dokumentanalys syftar till att sammanställa och jämföra tidigare utförda projekt. Intervjuer med respondenter har kompletterat och förklarat de budgetavvikelser som uppmärksammats från dokumentanalysen. En litteraturstudie av tidigare forskningens resultat möjliggjorde även för jämförelse och ökad förståelse av resultatet. Resultatet av studien är en förklaring till varför budgetöverskridanden förekommer i en liten kommun. De huvudsakliga anledningarna är ändrings-, tilläggs- och avgående arbeten (ÄTA-arbeten) i projekten vilket orsakas av olika faktorer. Dessa olika faktorer kan vara exempelvis felaktiga handlingar eller dåliga markförhållanden. ÄTA-arbeten är väldigt kostnads- och tidsdrivande vilket orsakar budgetöverskridanden. Studien visar också att kostnadsöverskridanden är mer vanligt förekommande än tidsöverskridanden
All over the world budget overruns occur. Public organisations have been no exception for these overruns, which incentivizes creating an understanding to why they occur in the first place. In the public projects there are more people than just the project managers who are affected by these overruns. This is due to the fact that the public projects are financed by tax funds which is paid by the society as a whole. The purpose of this study is to create an understanding of why budget overruns occur where a small municipality has been chosen as the case object to gather data. To achieve this purpose both primary and secondary data has been used to create a document analysis which has been complemented with interviews. The document analysis of the study aims to compile and compare previous projects in the municipality. The interviews are supposed to complement and explain different budget deviations found in the document analysis. Finally, a literature review was carried out in order to enable the comparison of the gathered data and increase the understanding of the findings. The result of the study is an explanation of why budget overruns occur in a small municipality. The primary reasons are change orders in the project plan which is caused by different factors. These different factors are faulty or vaguely formed project plans or even bad conditions of the land. Change orders are very cost and time consuming which causes budget overruns. The study also found that cost overruns are more common than time overruns.

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Anchalee, Jenpanitsub. "Cost overruns in transport projects - Experiences from Sweden". Thesis, KTH, Transportvetenskap, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-42444.

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Cost overrun of transport projects is one of the most important problems in transport planning. Apart from causing budget overruns, it also results in uncertain cost-benefit for decision making. This thesis studies cost overruns in Sweden and internationally, factors affecting cost overruns and possible improvements of cost calculations. The literature study confirms that cost overrun problem is a global phenomenon. The average cost overruns in rail projects are always higher than in road projects. We have compared cost estimations and outcomes of 167 road and rail projects in Sweden during the period 1997-2009. This reveals that average cost overruns are 11% (SD = 24.6%) and 21% (SD = 50.5%) for road and rail projects, respectively. In Sweden, the average cost overrun in road projects is similar to other countries, while the average cost overrun in rail projects is lower than in other countries. However, the standard deviation of cost overruns in Swedish rail projects is very high. The cost overruns in road and rail projects in Sweden have been constant for the 13-year period and cost estimates have not improved over time. Furthermore, small Swedish transport projects (< 100 million SEK) have much higher percentage of cost overruns than large projects. To improve cost estimates in Sweden, the Successive Calculation method has recently been applied. We have collected data for 295 planned projects and find that the variance is significantly lower in these than in actual outcomes, and that the difference is surprisingly small between projects in different planning stages. Another method, Reference Class Forecasting, is demonstrated in two case studies - Stockholm bypass and Västlänken. The two methods are also compared in the thesis. For both case studies, the project costs by using the Reference Class Forecasting method are higher than the project costs by using the Successive Calculation based on the equal costs at 50% confident level of cost overrun.

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13

Gopalan, Subramani (Subramani Shankara) Carleton University Dissertation Management Studies. "Reasons for schedule overruns in software development projects". Ottawa, 1995.

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14

Celenligil, Onur. "Analogical Reasoning For Risk Assessment And Cost Overrun Estimation In Construction Projects". Master's thesis, METU, 2010. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12612229/index.pdf.

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Project cost increase is the main concern in international construction projects which usually results in disputes and conflicts among the project participants. The aim of this thesis is to construct a database that represents risk event history regarding international construction projects and construct a cost overrun prediction model. It is hypothesized that magnitudes of project related, company related and country related risk factors can be predicted by assessing the level of vulnerability by analogical reasoning with previous projects. The vulnerability and risk factors can further be used to predict cost overrun in the bid preparation stage of international construction projects. Thus, prediction models that link vulnerability with risk factors and cost are constructed by using a dataset of 166 international construction projects, which consists of 66 real and 100 hypothetical cases. Case-based reasoning (CBR) technique is used to construct the prediction models. After testing the performance of various CBR models using different weight generation and retrieval methods, error rate of +/- 7.15 % cost increase is achieved. The utilization of CBR models in the prediction of potential risk sources and cost overrun is demonstrated by a real case study. Finally, the benefits and pitfalls of using analogical reasoning for risk and cost overrun assessment of construction projects are discussed.

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15

Endut, Intan Rohani. "Framework for minimising time overruns of Malaysian construction projects". Thesis, Glasgow Caledonian University, 2008. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.486493.

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Malaysia is a fast developing country in the Asian region which has undergone rapid growth since the 1970s. The construction industry is an important sector in socialeconomic development. It is generally understood that construction project delivery in Malaysia frequently experiences cost and time overruns, leading to many being completed at excessive cost and time overrun, or, in some situations, abandoned. The overall aim of the study, therefore, was to develop a framework to proactively minimise time overrun in Malaysian construction projects. This aim was fulfilled by achieving research objectives, including an investigation of the factors that contribute to time overruns, the relationship between the time and cost of construction projects, and to compare the factors related to time overrun in the 'best' and 'worst' Malaysian construction projects. A four-stage approach was adopted for the study. The quantitative data sets obtained were subjected to a rigorous statistical analysis. The main limitation of this research was due to a low response rate from the respondents. The personal contact with the respondents was used to'increase the response rate in all questionnaire surveys. The study concluded that there is a need to develop a framework for minimising time overrun in Malaysian construction projects. The results from the four stages were found suitable for further use in framework development. From the 84 time overrun factors investigated, 37 significant factors were determined, which were focused on for framework development. The research proceeded to develop a comprehensive framework to minimise time overrun, followed by several mitigation measures being suggested for each of the factors. The use of professionals and experts in the construction industry helped to identify the effectiveness and practicality of the mitigation measures for each factor. The framework came together with the risk management strategy for a construction project. It is anticipated that the framework will encourage the construction industry to understand the importance of minimising time overrun, as well as assisting and enabling the clients, consultants, contractors and others parties involved in construction projects. It is hoped that this will lead to future improvements in the Malaysian construction industry, through a continuous culture of improvement in the industry, and act as a vehicle for change within the industry, which is required to assist in improving current standard practices in delivering construction projects of better quality that fulfill client satisfaction and minimise time overrun.

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16

Howick, Susan M. "An exploration of the role of system dynamics in the analysis of disruption and delay for litigation". Thesis, University of Strathclyde, 2001. http://oleg.lib.strath.ac.uk:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=21576.

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System Dynamics (SD) is a modelling approach that has been used to support litigation cases that are investigating overruns on large engineering projects caused by Disruption and Delay (D&D). However, the role that SD can play in the analysis of D&D in large projects is not fully understood. The first aim of the research is to explore the appropriateness of SD as a modelling approach in the analysis of D&D for litigation. Criteria on the suitability of SD to model a situation are taken from the SD literature and explored to understand their level of contribution to the research. Experiences from the researcher's involvement in two litigation cases are then used to test how empirical data performs against the criteria. The explorations lead to a revised set of criteria being proposed. These criteria should be used to assess whether or not SD should be used to analyse D&D for any specific litigation case. Testing the data against the criteria also results in lessons for the modelling of D&D. This includes a proposed method of assessing the level of D&D in a project through an analysis of managerial actions. The second aim of the research is to explore the issues that are involved in using SD to analyse D&D for litigation. The approach taken uses the empirical data to test the degree to which SD can meet the purposes of modelling D&D for litigation. This process leads to a number of conclusions. It highlights limitations of using SD in this environment; emphasises the importance that the audience plays in the modelling process; explores the difficulties encountered in gaining audience confidence in the model; provides an appreciation of the validation process required when modelling in this environment. The research provides an initial understanding of the role that SD can play in the analysis of D&D for litigation. It is hoped that this can be built on with future experiences of modelling D&D for litigation.

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17

Roachanakanan, Kwanchai. "A case study of cost overruns in a Thai condominium project". Texas A&M University, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/2298.

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Construction managers confront many problems. Still, this industry plays a vital role in the healthy growth of the economy of many countries throughout the developed and developing world. Effective management of construction projects has been a major research subject in the last century due to the importance of this industry and the amount of money it attracts. One critical problem facing construction managers is inefficient cost control procedures, particularly in developing regions of the world. Since the end of the Second World War, the use of sophisticated cost control procedures in managing and controlling project costs have been accepted and applied widely in many parts of the world such as the United States and the United Kingdom. These procedures are important in a growing economy to ensure delivery of projects on time and within budget, but they are equally important during an economic recession when project viability becomes marginal. In the early 1990s, the construction industry in Thailand played a critical role during a period of strong economic growth. Construction cost control was not a major concern as developers rushed to capitalize on the booming market. In the late 1990s, the economy of Southeast Asia sank into recession. Project cost control became a critical issue for the developers as well as the construction companies in managing construction projects. A significant number of projects in Thailand in the late 1990s had significant cost overruns. Cost overruns had been a problem during the high growth period in the early 1990s, but demand overcame the problems created by poor cost control. The use of good project cost control procedures has become a concern of project investors and construction companies in Thailand since the recession of the late 1990s. Project managers and developers are now aware that the failure of a cost control system or use of a poor system can lead to project failure. Project cost control methods need to be improved in Thailand to ensure that owners and contractors manage construction costs and meet project goals on time and within budget. In this study, project cost controls in the United States and Thailand will be examined. These procedures will be analyzed to identify their similarities and differences. The causes and solutions for cost overruns in the two countries will also be examined. The results from the study will illustrate how the project cost control procedures used in the United States can be applied to the construction industry in Thailand to improve the procedures used by Thai contractors.

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18

Miller, Scott D. "Control-theoretic decision support for mitigation of modeled software project cost overruns". Thesis, Purdue University, 2014. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=3613236.

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Despite sixty years of practice, the production of software remains an endeavor that is difficult to manage according to a schedule. Control theory studies the ability to influence the dynamical behavior of systems to achieve desired behaviors or eliminate undesired behaviors. In this work, the management problem of software project schedule adherence is re-cast as a problem in control theory.

Below, a modeling framework is proposed for capturing the constraints and dependencies found in the arbitrary organization specific work-flows underlying software production. Combined with proposed models for productivity, defect introduction, and defect detection, the framework completes a method for producing models of progress in software development using the techniques dynamical systems modeling. Management objectives are then formalized in terms of behaviors to be elicited or eliminated from the models. Finally, the techniques of control theory are applied to determine changes of the variable inputs of the model that maximize achievement of the management objectives. Simulation results are analyzed and reveal that the control technique succeeds in modifying the behavior of such models to improve adherence to specified management objectives.

The control loop is intended to be closed by the software project manager, who translates the suggested modifications of the model inputs into candidate changes to be optionally applied to the real world software development process. As the candidate process changes enter into the decision-making process of the project manager, this work constitutes a management decision support tool.

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19

Al-Omari, Tareq. "Stochastic regression modelling of cost and duration overrun of construction projects implemented in Kuwait". Thesis, University of Liverpool, 2004. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.418590.

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20

Bermúdez, Marcos José. "Analysis and quantification of risk of cost overruns in construction projects". Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1985. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/15145.

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Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil Engineering, 1985.
MICROFICHE COPY AVAILABLE IN ARCHIVES AND ENGINEERING
Bibliography: leaves 121-123.
by José Bermúdez Marcos.
M.S.

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21

Al-Keim, Ali. "Strategies to Reduce Cost Overruns and Schedule Delays in Construction Projects". ScholarWorks, 2017. https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations/4586.

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Senior managers fail to control time and costs of construction projects despite available advanced project management tools. Based on project management theory, the objective of this multiple case study was to explore the strategies senior managers use to reduce cost overruns and schedule delays in construction projects. Primary data were obtained from semistructured interviews with 3 senior managers from different construction project management companies who have successfully managed construction projects in Qatar. Data analysis process included a modified Van Kaam method. The transcribed interviews were interpreted and coded to generate themes and were validated through member checking and archival documents. The most centralized themes included (a) master planning, (b) processes and procedures, (c) managing design stage, (d) procurement management, (e) use of proper software, (f) setting project cost and time, and (g) deciding clear scope. A construction project may not succeed without appropriate planning for all stages of the project lifecycle. Managing the approval of the project components during the design stage contributes to reducing changes during construction, which is helpful to control cost and time. The project processes and procedures are meaningful roadmaps for the managers and decision makers. The implications for positive social change include the potential to maintain a cleaner Earth by reducing design and construction wastes. Reducing wastes improves the cost of construction and provides opportunities for people to own property at more affordable costs.

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22

Karakas, Kivanc. "Development Of A Multi Agent System For Negotiation Of Cost Overrun In International Construction Projects". Master's thesis, METU, 2010. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12611941/index.pdf.

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Multiagent systems (MAS) are systems consisting of several autonomous entities, called agents, which interact with each other to either further their own interests (competition) or in pursuit of a joint goal (cooperation). In systems composed of multiple autonomous agents, negotiation is a key form of interaction that enables groups of agents to arrive at a mutual agreement regarding some belief, goal or plan. The aim of this thesis is to develop a multiagent system that simulates the negotiation process between parties about sharing of cost overrun in international construction projects. The developed tool can be used to understand how the risks and associated costs are shared between parties under different scenarios related with the risk allocation clauses in the contract, objectives of parties and level of knowledge about actual sources of cost overrun. MAS can be utilized by decision-makers to predict potential outcomes of a negotiation process.

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23

Massa, Lars. "Project Cost Deviations : Determination of Causes and Correlations & Implications for Public Procurement". Thesis, Karlstads universitet, Handelshögskolan, 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kau:diva-37461.

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Looking at newspapers nowadays, you are likely to see reports about public projects which turn out to be more expensive than estimated, sometimes even fourteen times the planned cost budget as in the case of the Sydney Opera. In order to gain a new insight on how this problematic could be improved, this paper aims to find correlations between the causes of deviations in public procurement and in the private market. Data from a on a global scale operating firm has been analyzed and compared to causes found in prior research. The questions this paper aims to answer are “Are causes and correlations found in smaller, private projects consistent with causes of cost overruns in public procurement?” and “Which implications and recommendations can be derived from the smaller dimension for the larger dimension of public procurement?” After introducing the theoretical framework and its theories, the individual cost deviations and correlations of the different segments are introduced and analysed. As a result, one can see how the rational behaviour model and asymmetric information influence the estimated cost and that, in order to decrease the problematic of cost overruns, estimation techniques and especially the way contracts are constructed have to be improved. Furthermore, positive correlations between the size of cost deviations and number of employees, possible chain of events and pay offs between

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24

Alsaqqa, Obada. "Fuzzy Time-Delay Model in Fault-Tree Analysis for Critical Path Method". The Ohio State University, 2015. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1429772426.

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25

Eke, Gerald. "Determining the probability distributions of cost and time overrun arising from different contractor selection strategies in construction projects". Thesis, Aston University, 2017. http://publications.aston.ac.uk/33316/.

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Failing to adequately select the winning contractor can lead to problems in the project delivery phase such as bad quality and project delay; which ultimately results in cost overruns. There are two strategies involved with selecting contractors: one is the lowest tender, the other is called best value. Selecting the lowest tender is straightforward; the latter strategy would involve scoring the contractors' tenders on price and quality and ranking them. The aim of this research is to provide a model of determining the probability distributions of cost and time arising from choosing different contractor selection strategies: lowest tender or best value tender. The research presents an approach by which a what-if scenario can be analyzed using educational facilities projects in the UK. A Monte Carlo Simulation model was developed to allow the evaluation of the probability distributions of cost, and duration arising from the different strategies; these a represented as probability curves. The results show that the lowest tenderer would likely overrun in cost but the cost will be below the price of the best value tenderer. However, there is a higher probability that the lowest tender will exceed the clients’ expected duration, perhaps by a significant amount. The first contribution of the thesis is the development of a novel model of determining the probability distributions of cost and time involved with the different contractor selection strategies by using Monte Carlo simulation. The second contribution is a fresh way of looking at cost overruns. It is proposed that contractors’ cost overrun for a project should be compared to the price of the next highest tender to gauge its real impact.

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26

van, der Kuyp Daniel John. "Strategies Construction Managerial Leaders Use to Counteract Material Cost Overruns". ScholarWorks, 2018. https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations/6288.

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The project cost overruns instigated through the loss of construction materials lowers the profitability of each stakeholder significantly. The purpose of this single case study was to explore strategies managerial leaders of a large construction firm used to counteract material cost overruns successfully. The diffusion of innovation theory was the conceptual framework for this study. The target population consisted of 6 managerial leaders with experience in large construction projects adhering to waste management standards and industry certifications. Data were collected using semistructured interviews and review of company documentation. The data analysis approach involved the content analysis research method to interpret and code the verbatim transcriptions of interviews into categories. The 2 principal categories from the study data were material management and planning and the supply chain and logistics. The results of the study yielded evidence of 2 strategies to counteract the material cost overruns, which were to strengthen partnerships with the suppliers and to hold regular audits at the project sites. The implication of this study for social change includes the potential to conserve depleted land minerals and valuable land reserves from becoming landfill by providing construction managers with information about strategies to counteract material cost overruns.

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27

Guo, Wei. "Development of a framework for preliminary risk analysis in transportation projects". Link to electronic thesis, 2004. http://www.wpi.edu/Pubs/ETD/Available/etd-12254-123510/.

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Thesis (M.S.)--Worcester Polytechnic Institute.
Keywords: continuous risk analysis; risk management; transportation infrastructure projects; cost overrun. Includes bibliographical references (p. 90-92).

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28

Kisamfu, Rehema Aman. "Investigating Contractual Challenges of Performing Cost Control in Building Construction Projects". Thesis, KTH, Fastigheter och byggande, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-297855.

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Quantity Surveyors are considered as the most qualified cost specialists in the construction industry, with their experiences and skills in cost management and control as well as contract management. However, this role is not well recognized in Sweden compared to other countries such as the UK where it’s originated from. And so, the construction industry in Sweden uses other professions for the roles that were supposed to be done by quantity surveyors or cost managers. As a result, the quantity surveyors that have penetrated the Swedish construction industry, face challenges to perform their duties specifically in this case, cost control due to several circumstances. This study has looked into different contractual challenges that face quantity surveyors while performing cost control in building projects. Also, recommendations have been made to help mitigate these challenges and improve cost control in projects. In this master thesis, qualitative study has been performed where quantity surveyors were interviewed regarding cost control and the contractual challenges, they face in building construction projects. The findings were analysed with a theoretical framework and discussed together with previous research and knowledge and in this study principal – agent theory was used. The results of the study showed that poor planning, late involvement of the quantity surveyors in projects, lack of effective communication and poor contract management are the main challenges that face quantity surveyor in performing cost control in building projects. To overcome these challenges, the author suggests that there is a need of increasing awareness on the importance of having quantity surveyors and clearly establish their roles in projects, have proper communication plan, proper contract management and improve skills on quantity surveying software.
Kvantitetbesiktningsman anses vara de mest kvalificerade kostnadsspecialisterna inom byggbranschen, med sina erfarenheter och färdigheter inom kostnadsstyrning och kontroll samt kontrakthantering. Denna roll är dock inte välkänd i Sverige jämfört med andra länder som Storbritannien där den härstammar från. Och så använder byggbranschen i Sverige andra yrken för de roller som skulle göras av kvantitetsmätare eller kostnadsansvariga. Som ett resultat står de kvantitetsmätare som har trängt igenom den svenska byggbranschen inför utmaningar att utföra sina uppgifter specifikt i detta fall, kostnadskontroll på grund av flera omständigheter. Denna studie har undersökt olika avtalsmässiga utmaningar som möter kvantitetsmätare när de utför kostnadskontroll i byggprojekt. Dessutom har rekommendationer gjorts för att mildra dessa utmaningar och förbättra kostnadskontrollen i projekt. I detta examensarbete har en kvalitativ studie utförts där kvantitetbesiktningsman intervjuades angående kostnadskontroll och de kontraktsmässiga utmaningar som de står inför i byggprojekt. Resultaten analyserades med en teoretisk ram och diskuterades tillsammans med tidigare forskning och kunskap och i denna studie användes princip - agentteori. Resultaten av studien visade att dålig planering, sen involvering av kvantitetsmätarna i projekt, brist på effektiv kommunikation och dålig kontrakthantering är de viktigaste utmaningarna för kvantitetsmätaren när det gäller att utföra kostnadskontroll i byggprojekt. För att övervinna dessa utmaningar föreslår författaren att det finns ett behov av att öka medvetenheten om vikten av att ha kvantitetsmätare och tydligt fastställa sina roller i projekt, ha korrekt kommunikationsplan, korrekt kontrakthantering och förbättra färdigheterna i kvantitetsmätningsprogramvara.

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Amadi, A. I. "Explaining cost overruns in highway projects : a geo-spatial regression modelling and cognitive mapping of latent pathogens and contextual drivers". Thesis, University of Salford, 2016. http://usir.salford.ac.uk/41299/.

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The research set off with the rationale of understanding the cause of the unusually high cost overruns experienced in highway projects, executed in the tropical wetland setting of the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. An expansive range of research from academe, revealed a strong dialectical debate between the theoretical and technical schools of thought, as to what propagates relatively higher cost overruns in public infrastructure projects. The theorists posit that optimism bias and deliberate misrepresentation by project planners, largely accounts for cost overruns in transportation infrastructure projects, and not geology/geotechnical risk as tendered by the technical school. Yet the literature continues to report inadequate geotechnical risk containment resulting in considerable post-contract cost overruns in highway projects. As a result of this contradiction, and the lack of a robust empirical analysis to this effect, this research was carried out to explore the statistical validity of geotechnical risk factors in explaining cost overruns recorded in highway projects executed in the Niger Delta region. Using the case study research strategy, 16 interviews were conducted within the 3 highway agencies in the region, longitudinal cost data was also gathered from 61 completed highway projects, along with geotechnical index data on the engineering properties of sub-grade soils at project locations. These were comprehensively analysed using an innovative multi-method approach: Thematic analysis; Documentary/archival analysis; Spatial analysis of geotechnical data sets, designed to quantitatively converge in a triangulatory log-regression model. The results of regression analysis identified that latent pathogens such as heterogeneous ground conditions and non-adherence to geotechnical best practices, amidst a wide array of unanticipated social constructs, account for the majority of the recorded variance between the initial estimates and the project’s final account. The interplay of the emergent social constructs with the latent pathogens was further cognitively mapped out, using content analysis, to visually conceptualise the relative weightiness of the intricate complexity of the contextual dynamics, driving the unusually high level of cost overruns experienced in highway project delivery in the Niger Delta. The study concluded that the phenomenon of cost overruns in highway projects is multi-hydra headed, driven by a complexity of technical and contextual social variables, and not the simplistic explanations implied by the dichotomous arguments in the literature. It was thus recommended that tackling cost overruns in highway projects require far more than the scientific application of technical risk management tools, and should therefore, further incorporate concerted and specifically targeted efforts at curbing the intrinsic contextual triggers within, and external to highway organisations.

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30

Correia, Cláudia Sofia Loureiro. "Os desvios das obras públicas em Portugal : reflexão sobre alguns dos seus determinantes". Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/6526.

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Mestrado em Ciências Empresariais
No âmbito do investimento público, tem-se observado ineficiências na estimação de custos em projetos, existindo a necessidade de melhorar a qualidade e eficiência dos recursos públicos. Este trabalho realiza uma análise econométrica para se estudar o comportamento de variáveis explicativas dos desvios em obras públicas. Quatro variáveis foram consideradas para explicar os desvios (quanto à dimensão do projeto, divisão dos projetos em subsectores, projetos referentes a anos eleitorais, e projetos concluídos após 2006, ano de mudança legislativa). A amostra consiste em 174 projetos públicos em Portugal, compreendidos entre 1999 e 2012, tendo sido obtidos através da recolha de dados nos relatórios de auditoria do Tribunal de Contas e da Inspeção Geral de Finanças. Foram submetidos os dados para a elaboração de modelos econométricos,com a avaliação de critérios quanto à homocedasticidade, independência dos resíduos, normalidade dos resíduos, ausência de multicolinariedade, validade do modelo e dos parâmetros. Com um nível de significância 5%, as variáveis que correspondem à dimensão de projetos, anos eleitorais e projetos concluídos após 2006 são significativas para explicar os desvios. Existe maior probabilidade de desvios em grandes projetos e que correspondem a anos eleitorais. A probabilidade de desvio diminui com os projetos concluídos a partir de 2006. A variável que corresponde a projetos divididos em subsectores não é significativa para o modelo econométrico e mostra um impacto contraditório com os dados observados. Conclui-se, portanto, que tem havido melhorias ao longo do tempo, mas que 8 em cada 10 projetos apresentam derrapagens de custos.
Within the scope of public investment, inaccuracies in cost estimations for projects have been observed, identifying a need to improve the quality and efficiency of public resources. This paper conducts an econometric analysis, to study the behavior of independent variables within the deviations in public constructions. Four variables were considered to explain such deviations (as to the projects dimension, the division of subsectors of the projects, the relation of the projects with election years and concluded projects after 2006, year of legislative change). The sample consists of 174 public projects in Portugal, comprised between 1999 and 2012, having seen obtained through a collection of data from the audit reports of the Tribunal de Contas and the Inspeção Geral de Finanças. This data was submitted for the formulation of the econometric models, with the evaluations of the criteria as to the homocedasticity, the residual independence, the residual normality, the absence of multicollinearity, the validity of the model and its parameters. With a significance level of 5%, the variables corresponding to the project dimension, election years and projects after 2006 are significant for explaining the inaccuracies in cost estimation. There is a higher probability in deviations of large projects that correlate with election years. The probability decreases with the projects that were concluded past 2006. The variable, which corresponds to projects divided into subsections, is not significant for the econometric model and shows a contradictory impact on observed data. Therefore, it is concluded that over time there have been improvements, but that 8 in every 10 projects present cost overruns.

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31

Van, Reede Van Oudtshoorn Armand. "A critical review of the possible reasons for construction cost overruns in light of cost estimating methodologies and models used in industry". Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/95685.

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Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2012.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This research report was conducted to critically review the methodologies and best practices prescribed by world class cost engineering experts and institutions, in order to develop a cost estimating model which organisations could use as a guideline for their cost estimates on large capital intensive projects.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie navorsingsverslag is gedoen om ‘n kritiese oorsig te doen op die metodes en beste praktyke voorgeskryf deur wereldklas koste ingenieur deskundiges en instansies, om sodoende ‘n koste beramings model te ontwikkel wat gebruik kan word deur organisasies as handleiding gedurende die koste beraming van hulle kapitale intensiewe projekte.

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32

Liu, Jenny y 劉燕妮. "Applied Real-time Bayesian Analysis in Forecasting Project Cost Overrun". Thesis, 2008. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/63070694439576049612.

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碩士
國立臺灣科技大學
營建工程系
96
In recent years, cost overrun is become a common problem in the construction industry. Most cost systems often underestimate cost overruns until of a project when there is little that can be done to control the situation. Many factors are necessarily to consider in forecasting cost overruns. Factors such as weather, productivity, material, equipment and management quality are identified escalating cost for the construction projects. This research proposes a model for predicting cost overrun probability based on the factors that affecting cost escalating. The model assumes a Poisson arrival pattern for cost overrun events occurrence. Real-time Bayesian analysis (particle filter algorithm) is used to run the simulation. Moreover, this research describes the concept of factor combination and sensitivity analysis in order to know most influence factor to cost overrun. The output of the model is presented numerically, providing the early warning of cost overruns to the project manager of the project.

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Wu, Qing. "Transportation infrastructure project cost overrun risk analysis : risk factor analysis models". Thesis, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/18377.

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The main purpose of this thesis is to analyze some common risk factors and to propose several useful analytical models for cost overrun risk analysis in transportation infrastructure investments. Probability models and regression models are proposed and partially (due to data insufficiency) applied using the VIHP (Vancouver Island Highway Project) data. The VIHP case study shows that cost overrun ratio increases as project sizes increase for small road/highway projects (budget < $0.25 million) and bridge/tunnel projects (budget >$0.85 million). However for road/highway projects with budgets over $0.25 million, cost overrun ratio decreases as project size increases. Using the VIHP database, results of a distribution fitting model and a Monte Carlo simulation model are compared. Compared with the distribution fitting model, the Monte Carlo simulation model is shown to underestimate both the upper bound value of project cost overrun ratio and slightly the probabilities of cost overrun. The distribution fitting model and regression model are shown to have close estimates of project costs and cost ranges at each confidence level.
Business, Sauder School of
Graduate

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34

"Estimation of Cost overrun Risk in Ýnterrnational Project by Using Fuzzy Set Theory". Master's thesis, METU, 2005. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12606032/index.pdf.

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Love, P. E. D., C.-P. Sing, X. Wang, Zahir Irani y D. W. Thwala. "Overruns in transportation infrastructure projects". 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10454/14084.

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No
Transportation infrastructure projects are prone to cost and schedule overruns. At the time of contract award, a construction contingency budget is often used to accommodate for unplanned events such as scope changes. Recent empirical research has shown that rework during construction as a result of design changes, errors and omission are the major contributors of overruns in projects. The statistical characteristics of rework, and cost and schedule overruns that are experienced from a project's contract award for 58 Australian transportation infrastructure projects are analysed. Theoretical probability distributions are fitted to the rework, cost and schedule overrun data. Goodness of fit tests are used in conjunction with probability-probability (P-P) plots to compare the sample distribution from the known theoretical distribution. A Generalised Logistic probability density function is found to describe the behaviour of cost-overruns and provides the best overall distribution fit. The best fitting distribution for schedule overruns and rework data were the Four Parameter Burr and a Johnson SB distribution, respectively. The distributions are used to calculate the probability of rework, cost and schedule overruns being experienced. A case illustration is presented and discussed to demonstrate how the derived probabilities may be utilised in practice.

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36

WU, MENG-CONG y 吳孟聰. "Causes of Contractors' Cost Overruns in Construction Projects". Thesis, 2019. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/grb63k.

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碩士
國立雲林科技大學
營建工程系
107
A construction project has a long life cycle, and many uncertain factors in the construction period will affect the achievement of the target profit. Therefore, the economic risks faced by manufacturers in bidding decisions are higher than those of other industries. As a result, the problem of cost overruns is particularly serious in the construction industry. This study focuses on contractors and explores the factors that cause cost overruns of constriction projects during construction. Through the literature review, the possible factors of the cost overrun during the construction period was designed in the questionnaire. After the questionnaire was collected from experienced construction engineers, Factor analysis and ANOVA analysis were implemented. As the results, the top five factors that often cause cost overruns are (1) difficult to conduct construction works in the rainy season, resulting in additional engineering costs; (2) overtime work costs for keeping up with the planned project schedule; (3) changes order affects the contractor's original estimated profit; (4) additional materials or equipment costs due to make up work; and (5) inactive management results in poor quality, schedule delay, and poor correctness. After factor analysis, eight constructs were obtained, which were named "man, machine and material cost," "engineering design," "construction quality," "project management," "engineering design," "project funds," "geological conditions," "external factors," and "environments and policies." The results of ANOVA analysis showed that different levels in the service unit, job title, working year, project type, project owner, project location, satisfaction of the respondents, and project scale have not significantly different in the construct of project funds. Different levels in the service unit, working year, type of project, construction site, and project scale showed significantly different viewpoints on the cost overruns caused by various constructs.

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37

Truong, Huy-Hung y 張輝雄. "THE SIGNIFICANT TIME AND COST OVERRUN FACTORS IN VIETNAM POWER PLANT CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS". Thesis, 2010. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/17919407568871039194.

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碩士
臺灣大學
土木工程學研究所
98
Time and cost overrun problems are considered as the two most severe factors contributing to the failure of construction projects and causing negative impacts on its project stakeholders in many countries all over the world, especially developing countries including Vietnam. The PetroVietnam Power Corporation (PVP) power plant construction projects are not an exception. This research attempts to identify the major time and cost overrun factors in the power plant construction projects of PVP and examine the differences in the perception of time and cost overrun factors from the perspective of three major construction practitioners involved in PVP power plant construction projects, namely, owners, contractors and consultants. Through a comprehensive literature review, some professionals’ forums on the internet, and discussions with experts, a questionnaire survey of 36 time and cost overrun causes was conducted. The data collected was then further analyzed and ranked with respect to indices of frequency, severity and importance. The findings showed that the top ten most important factors were: (1) Slow site clearance and unsatisfactory compensation; (2) Price fluctuations for materials and labor; (3) Contractors’ financial difficulties; (4) Owner’s financial difficulties; (5) Inadequate experience of contractors; (6) Poor site management and supervision; (7) Shortages of skilled workers and technical personnel; (8) Low bid values; (9) Improper planning & scheduling by contractors; and (10) Additional work. Based on data from all three respondents, there was particularly high agreement for the first four factors. Spearman''s rank correlation tests were used to determine the extent of agreement in the perceptions from gleaned from the viewpoints of three main practitioners involved in PVP power plant construction projects. The results revealed a relatively strong agreement between them with the highest degree of consensus between project owners and consultants (74% with importance index, level of significance 99%) while the lowest degree of association between owners and contractors (60.4% with importance index, level of significance 99%). It is believed that these research findings can give more insight into the current situation in the Vietnamese construction industry in general, the power plant construction projects explored in this thesis in particular, as well as other PVP projects such as those in oil and gas and industrial zone development.

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38

Mukuka, Mulenga Joseph. "Cost and schedule overruns on construction projects in South Africa". Thesis, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10210/13811.

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M.Tech. (Construction Management)
The construction industry is a key sector in the development and economic growth of South Africa. However, the industry has not escaped the challenges facing other countries worldwide in terms of delivering construction projects within budget and on time as stipulated in the contracts. This study assesses the causes, effects and measures of minimising construction projects cost and schedule overruns in the Gauteng Province of South Africa. The data used in this study were derived from both primary and secondary sources. The secondary data was collected via detailed review of related literature. The primary data was collected through a questionnaire which was distributed to construction professionals. Out of the 200 questionnaires sent out, 146 were received representing a 73% response rate. Findings revealed that inadequate planning, change in project design, poor project management, inadequate financial provision and inaccurate estimates were the major causes of construction projects cost overruns. Furthermore the study also showed that the causes of construction projects schedule overruns in Gauteng province included: slowness in decision making process, reworks due to errors during construction, delays in approving major changes in the scope of work, delay in material delivery, shortage of skilled equipment operators and low productivity level of workers. Additionally, it was observed that construction project delays, increased project cost due to extension of time, liability of companies to bad debt and project abandonment. The study also revealed that extension of time, cost overruns, loss of profit, disputes and poor quality of work due to hurrying the project were the major effects of construction projects schedule overruns. Likewise, the study revealed that adequate planning, proper pre-contract planning, proper project implementation and management and good workmanship were the most effective ways of minimising construction projects cost overruns. Finally the results revealed that proper project planning and scheduling, effective strategic planning, site management and supervision, frequent coordination between the construction team, availability of clear information and communication channels were the most effective ways of minimising construction projects schedule overruns in the Gauteng Province of South Africa. It is recommended that all members of construction teams be trained and educated of the factors that cause project cost and schedule overruns in order to minimise these overruns.

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39

Love, P. E. D., J. Zhou, D. J. Edwards, Zahir Irani y C.-P. Sing. "Off the rails: the cost performance of infrastructure rail projects". 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10454/11645.

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Yes
Governments in Australia place great emphasis on the development and expansion of their rail networks to improve productivity and service the increasing needs and demands from businesses and commuters. A case study approach is used to analyze the cost performance of 16 rail projects constructed by a contractor between 2011 and 2014, which ranged from AU$3.4 to AU$353 million. Findings indicate that scope changes during construction were the key contributors that lead to the amendment of each project’s original contractual value. As a result, there is a need for public and private sector asset owners to establish a cost contingency using a probabilistic rather than a deterministic approach to accommodate the potential for scope changes during construction. To improve cost certainty during the construction of rail projects, it is suggested that use of collaborative forms of procurement juxtaposed with the use of Building Information Modelling and Systems Information Modelling are implemented. The utilization of such technological and process innovations can provide public and private sector asset owners charged with delivering and maintaining their rail networks with confidence projects can be delivered within budget and are resilient to unexpected events and adaptable to changing needs, uses or capacities.
The authors would like to acknowledge the financial support provided by the Australian Research Council (DP160102882).

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40

Dibonwa, Pelontle. "Identifying causes and remedies for cost overruns in Botswana's public construction projects". Thesis, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10539/6344.

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This research survey was carried out to investigate three areas of concern which are commonly associated with the implementation of government development projects: namely: (i) cost overrun causal factors, (ii) effective remedial cost control measures and (iii) apportionment of professional responsibility for either cost overrun causal factors or costs control remedial measures’ implementation. The ultimate aim was to identify major causes of cost overruns, generate and recommend possible solutions to the problem of cost overruns in the Botswana public construction industry. The research strategy adopted, involved the circulation of questionnaires and subsequent statistical data analysis. Initially, an expert group questionnaire test survey was conducted among ten (10) professionals (expert group), in order to solicit professional opinion and contributory input on the research. The purpose of the expert group questionnaire test survey was to refine the research questionnaires, make necessary questionnaire structure amendments, eliminate possible ambiguities, and finally, to make data collection an easy exercise. Through the expert group questionnaire test survey, the research questionnaires were assessed for validity and reliability. Thus, the questionnaire content validity (Saunders et al. 2003) was established by soliciting comments from the expert group, on the representativeness and suitability of the research questionnaires. Lists of causes of cost overruns factors and effective cost control measures were, developed for each of the three major project development cycle phases; namely: the conception/planning/designing, implementation, and completion/commissioning phases. The research questionnaires which were formulated through expert group questionnaire test survey lists of cost overruns causal factors and cost control remedial measures were circulated to a wide range of practicing professionals. In addition, a representative number of case study projects, with specific reference to cost overruns and cost control, were selected for detailed investigation. Three statistical data analytical methods; the respondents ‘s cost overrun factor/cost control measures ranking order, the Kendell’s Correlation Coefficient and the case study analysis, were simultaneously (triangulation analysis), employed in order to draw conclusive results of the research findings. Hence, the result of the survey identified: i) the most frequent cost overrun causal factors; as inadequate project brief, insufficient/inadequate project design, lack of project coordination and contractual claims and ii) the most effective cost control measures; as appointment of competent project personnel, improved project monitoring, awarding contracts to reputable/competent contractors and monitoring teams and providing time and financial management facilities. The third objective, which was to identify and apportion professional personnel responsibility for causal factors and remedial cost control implementation measures; within each of the three-project development cycle phases; yielded the following results: Clients and project managers were found to play a major contributory role in activities that lead to project cost overruns at conception/planning/designing phase. The project implementation phase allocated blame to contractors, architects and quantity surveyors for cost overruns, while quantity surveyors and contractors were found to be responsible for cost overruns at the completion/commissioning phase. On the implementation of effective remedial cost control measures, the professional responsibility scenario was found to be as follows: clients and project managers play a major role at conception/planning/designing phase, whereas quantity surveyors are key players at implementation phase and project managers; at completion /commissioning phase.

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41

Love, P. E. D., D. D. Ahiaga-Dagbui y Zahir Irani. "Cost overruns in transportation infrastructure projects: Sowing the seeds for a probabilistic theory of causation". 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10454/11323.

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No
Understanding the cause of cost overruns in transportation infrastructure projects has been a topic that has received considerable attention from academics and the popular press. Despite studies providing the essential building blocks and frameworks for cost overrun mitigation and containment, the problem still remains a pervasive issue for Governments worldwide. The interdependency that exists between ‘causes’ that lead to cost overruns materialising have largely been ignored when considering the likelihood and impact of their occurrence. The vast majority of the cost overrun literature has tended to adopt a deterministic approach in examining the occurrence of the phenomenon; in this paper a shift towards the adoption of pluralistic probabilistic approach to cost overrun causation is proposed. The establishment of probabilistic theory incorporates the ability to consider the interdependencies of causes so to provide Governments with a holistic understanding of the uncertainties and risks that may derail the delivery and increase the cost of transportation infrastructure projects. This will further assist in the design of effective mitigation and containment strategies that will ensure future transportation infrastructure projects meet their expected costs as well as the need of taxpayers.
Australian Research Council (DP160102882)

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42

Chung, Chun-Kai y 鐘俊凱. "The Study Engineering overdue Causing Disputes in Construction Projects". Thesis, 2014. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/22820466124340234658.

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碩士
國立高雄第一科技大學
營建工程研究所
102
Since civil engineering usually involves a wide scope of things, unexpected situation is usually met in the engineering process, which leads to forced engineering delay or even stop of the construction, hence, dispute usually occurs between the customer and the subcontractor. Using “Data search system of Judicial Yuan”, we can acquire written judgment regarding engineering delay lawsuit, through the content of the judgment, we have obtained factors related to engineering delay and means of proof for the request of compensation of engineering delay, then through Fault Tree Analysis on the convergent minimal cut set, the main reasons causing the delay are then investigated. After summarization and analysis on the judgment collected in this study, it was found that the basis for the request of increase of the expense due to the engineering schedule delay includes article 227-2 principle of change of circumstances in civil law, article 227 the effect of incomplete performance, article 231 delay compensation-responsibility of irresistible change, article 491, the subcontracting payment, etc. If the engineering contract does not have clear schedule delay agreement, then according to article 230 of civil law, subcontract can submit a proof to prove that the engineering schedule delay is inscrutable fault and the subcontractor does not have to take the delay responsibility. Using the fault tree analysis, it can be seen that factors for engineering delay are mostly design change, climate factor, unperformed contract, incapable of delivery to the construction site, defect in construction quality, delay in construction schedule, pipeline location transfer, address change, delay from related subcontractors, protest from the local residents, etc.; among them, the design change factor has the highest probability to occur.

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43

Park, Jung Eun. "Cost Overruns and Schedule Delays of Major Projects: Why We Need Reference Class Forecasting". Thesis, 2021. https://doi.org/10.7916/d8-9cn7-c433.

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Major projects around the world have long been notorious for cost overruns and schedule delays. In response to the cost overruns, the U.S. Department of Transportation established a task force and took a range of steps to strengthen the stewardship, management, and oversight of major projects at the beginning of the 21st century. Through a classical test of hypotheses, this study first investigates the prevalence and magnitude of the cost overruns of the major infrastructure projects in the U.S. before and after the reform. The before and after comparison finds that the projects experiencing cost overrun have been reduced from 77% to 45% following the reform. Results revealed that the U.S. Department of Transportation has developed measurable outcomes but their success may be limited. To address the cost overruns, conversely, the U.K. adopted Kahneman’s Nobel Prize-winning theory to challenge biases in human judgment and mandated reference class forecasting for major projects at the beginning of the 21st century. Through before-and-after and with-and-without comparisons of major infrastructure projects, this empirical study then examines the practical relevance of reference class forecasting for infrastructure investments. A before-and-after comparison reveals that the average cost overrun declined from 50% to 5% following the introduction of reference class forecasting. A with-and-without comparison also demonstrates that the U.K. surpassed its targeted probability of completing projects within budget by 12% using reference class forecasting, whereas the U.S. underperformed by 23%. Thus, reference class forecasting has engendered notable improvements in estimation in the U.K. Although schedule delays not only result in significant financial implications to project sponsors but also lead to substantial social costs to the public, scant attention has been dedicated to schedule delays. Therefore, this study further investigates the frequency, magnitude, and characteristics of schedule delays occurring during the construction of major infrastructure projects built in the U.S. and the U.K. between 1999 and 2018. A multivariate regression analysis confirms that length of implementation phase and project type plays the most important role in project schedule performance. During extensive efforts were made to project controls in the U.S. and the U.K. over the last two decades, this study also finds, project performance has not improved at all from a schedule perspective. In order to address the issue, this study suggests reference class forecasting to develop more realistic and reliable schedule estimates. This empirical study demonstrates the benefits of supplementing or replacing the current forecasting method. The findings can be used to reduce substantial financial risks for the government as well as social and economic welfare losses for society.

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44

Pereira, Isa Catarina. "Projetos de execução, as suas deficiências e consequências em obras públicas". Master's thesis, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10316/83376.

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Dissertação de Mestrado Integrado em Engenharia Civil apresentada à Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia
É sabido que hoje em dia, as obras públicas são objeto de inúmeras situações problemáticas relativamente a desconformidades na execução. Podem ser devidas a projetos deficientes, falhas orçamentais, falta de comunicação entre os intervenientes, entre outras. Pelo facto de estas obras, por norma, serem objeto de avultados investimentos e elevado grau de complexidade, são aquelas onde a probabilidade de existirem erros ou falhas que levem a derrapagens orçamentais e físicas, são também mais elevadas.Nesta investigação pretende-se avaliar a influência que o projeto de execução tem nestes desvios e estudar formas de evitar os mesmos. No fundo, pretende-se uma execução sem erros minimizando futuros trabalhos de demolição ou a execução de trabalhos de correção que constituirão encargos para o empreiteiro ou para o dono de obra de acordo com circunstâncias específicas a analisar.Ao longo deste trabalho são apresentados alguns conceitos importantes bem como os procedimentos e conduta dos diversos intervenientes à luz do Decreto-Lei 18/2008 de 29 de Janeiro que rege a disciplina aplicável à contratação pública.Para uma melhor compreensão destes procedimentos, foram analisadas cinco obras públicas, tendo como base relatórios de auditoria produzidos pelo Tribunal de Contas onde consta toda a informação relativa aos desvios físicos e orçamentais, as suas consequências para o erário público, para os utilizadores e a forma de os evitar.No final desta investigação, é possível concluir que o projeto de execução tem que ser tão completo e detalhado quanto possível e que todos os intervenientes têm que interagir por forma a evitar erros e omissões. Mais ainda, o facto de se iniciarem os trabalhos de execução sem um projeto pormenorizado, dá origem a erros graves, suspensão dos trabalhos e consequentemente prorrogações de prazos com aumento dos custos.
It is well known that nowadays, public constructions are the subject of numerous problematic situations regarding the nonconformities in the execution. They may be due to poor projects, budget deficiencies and lack of communication between stakeholders, among others. Due to the fact that these works, as a rule, are subject to large investments and have a high degree of complexity, the probability of errors or failures regarding budget and deadline, is also higher.This research intends to evaluate the influence of the execution project on these flaws and to study ways to avoid them. More specifically, it is intended an error-free execution of the project, minimizing future demolition works or the execution of corrective works that will result in expenses for the contractor or the developer according to specific circumstances to be analysed.Throughout this paper some important concepts are presented, as well as the procedures and conduct of the various parts involved concerning the Decree-Law 18/2008 of January 29, that rules the discipline applicable to public procurement.For a better understanding of these procedures, five public works were analysed based on audit reports produced by the Court of Auditors containing all the information on deadlines and budgets deviations, their consequences for the public purse, for users and ways to avoid them.In the last part of this investigation, it is possible to conclude that the execution project has to be as complete and detailed as possible, and that all parts involved have to interact in order to avoid errors and omissions. In addition, the beginning of construction works without a detailed design, can lead to serious errors, suspension of works and consequent extensions of deadlines with increased costs.

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45

Catalão, Francisco Miguel Pinheiro. "Cost and time overruns in public investment projects: an exogenous determinants model, theory and practice". Doctoral thesis, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.26/29324.

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The original contribution to knowledge of this research is overtaking the absence of an exogenous variables model in the analysis of cost and time deviations in public projects in the existing literature. This is achieved through the construction of a model that includes exogenous (political, governance, and economic) and endogenous (project-related) determinants. This model aims to help public decision makers develop public policies that seek to minimise cost and time overruns in public infrastructure projects. Cost and time overruns are often perceived to be a sign of project failure, and several past studies have identified potential causes and explanatory factors for the occurrence of such deviations. Governments devote significant resources to public projects, which thus makes cost and time overruns a critical issue for public management. The research presents a theoretical underpinning based on Opportunistic Behaviour, Institutional, Economic Cycles, and Incomplete contracts theories and provides an empirical analysis of 4,305 public projects developed in Portugal between 1980 and 2014. We used as dependent variables the cost/time deviation (the percentual difference between the final and initial cost/time) and the cost/time overruns (assuming one if the cost/time deviation is positive and zero if the cost/time deviation is zero or negative). The analysis suggests that these exogenous determinants have been under-valued in the existing literature and that they do, indeed, play a relevant role in understanding cost and time deviations.

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46

Adugna, Nafkote Tesfahun. "A study of causes of delay and cost overrun in office construction projects in the eThekwini Municipal Area, South Africa". Thesis, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10321/1374.

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Submitted in fulfillment of the academic requirements for the degree of Master of Technology in Construction Management, Durban University of Technology, Durban, South Africa, 2015.
On-time completion and conformity with assigned cost of every project are the most important factors in the success of project plans. Cost overruns and time overrun (delays) have been critical problems of many projects around the world in general and in South Africa in particular. The main objectives of this research are to assess the dominant causes of cost and time overruns, identifying possible and practical measures that can minimize overruns in office building construction projects around eThekwini Municipal area of Kwazulu-Natal. These objectives are achieved through the implementation of the research methodologies that are mainly literature review and questionnaire survey conducted to identify and evaluate the significant factors contributing to delay and cost overruns within the projects of interest. A review of literature identified eighty-five variables for delay, grouped in nine major categories and nine variables for cost overruns ranked in their order of importance in three sets based on the responses from the professionals working for the client, consultants and contractors. The agreement among the sets of rankings for delay and cost overruns has also been tested using statistical methods. The result indicates that there is strong agreement on ranking the importance of the individual variables of delay and cost overruns between parties. From each of the three sets of rankings, the twenty most important variables of delay and the three most important variables of cost overrun are identified as critical. Based on overall results, the top five most important causes are contractor’s cash flow problems, delay in progress payments by the client, poor site supervision and management by contractor, inefficient quality control by the contractor during construction leading to rework due to errors, and contractor’s difficulties in financing the project. Out of the 20 most important delay causing variables, three are found to be common between all parties. These are delay in progress payments by the client, delay in delivery and late ordering of material, and insufficient skill of labour. Furthermore, the study reveals that all stakeholders of construction parties are deeply involved in contributing to the causes of the problems. Thus, in order to eliminate or minimize cost and time extension of office construction projects in the eThekwini Municipal area, a joint effort based on teamwork is essential through effective project planning, controlling and monitoring which boils down to putting in place best practice construction project management.

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47

Monyane, Thabiso Godfrey. "Identifying causes of cost overruns and effective cost control measures of public projects in the Free State province". 2013. http://encore.tut.ac.za/iii/cpro/DigitalItemViewPage.external?sp=1001373.

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M. Tech. Quantity Surveying (Structured)
The aim of this research is to identify the major cost overrun factors in the construction sector of the Free State Province of South Africa and the effective remedial cost control measures, generate and recommend possible solutions. The primary objective of the research is to identify the major causes of cost overrun in the construction sector of the Free State Province of South Africa and the related effective remedial cost control measures.

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48

Tshidavhu, Fhumulani Judith. "Assessing the causes of schedule and cost overruns in South African mega energy projects: a case of the Limpopo Province". Thesis, 2020. https://hdl.handle.net/10539/31326.

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A research report submitted to the School of Construction Economics and Management, Faculty of Engineering and Built Environment, University of Witwatersrand in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science, 2020
Cost and schedule overruns are the most common challenges in mega construction projects around the globe. The frequency of megaprojects failing to be completed on time and within budget is creating a poor reputation in the construction industry. This research aimed to assess the causes of cost and schedule overruns in the construction of megaprojects in South Africa. The objectives were to identify the local challenges militating against a project’s implementation success, to analyse the local conditions that could contribute to project implementation sluggishness, to assess planning and implementation practices in such projects and to assess the local expertise and acumen during the front-end project preparation process. Quantitative research method was employed. Questionnaires were used to collect data from engineers, quantity surveyors, architects, contractors and project managers. Limitation of the study is that leadership instability at Eskom, the South African public electricity utility company, has occasioned a climate of mistrust to outsiders making assessing informative sources difficult. Data were analysed using mean item score. The analysis indicates that poor site management, inadequate managerial skills, poor monitoring and control, lack of experience, poor financial planning, changes in the scope of work on site, variation orders, omission and errors in the Bill of Quantities, and unstable management structure were the major causes of cost and schedule overruns. Specific solutions that mitigate the causes of schedule and cost overrun should be investigated in future studies
CK2021

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