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1

Caniglia, Alan S. "George Eliot and Rational Economic Agents." Journal of Interdisciplinary Economics 8, no. 2 (April 1997): 127–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/02601079x9700800203.

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Conventional economists analyze human behavior by assuming a “rational economic agent” who is motivated solely by material self interest. This assumption has come to permeate our analyses of economic situations and policies, yet it is clearly limited, simplifying, and not capable of explaining the full range of human behavior. In this essay the writings of George Eliot are discussed as commentaries on this assumption and the implicit deductive methodology underlying it, and as explorations toward the possibility of a broader conceptual framework for analyzing economic issues. The paper argues
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2

Carrera, Edgar J. Sanchez, and Jose Ma Gonzalez Lara. "Economic Rationality and Rational Credence." International Journal of Applied Behavioral Economics 8, no. 1 (January 2019): 49–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/ijabe.2019010103.

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The aim of this article is to show that rational maximizer agents, i.e. economic rationality, do not parsimoniously with rational credence, i.e. agents preferences driven by beliefs, traditions, idiosyncrasy, culture and/or customs depending on the social state representing a possible credence. The authors formulate a model on rational behavior, where either an economic and/or credence rationality results in the expected referential payoff of a rational preference driven by beliefs is not necessarily the optimal one in terms of having the largest payoff. Hence, the authors show the relationshi
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3

Malkov, Leonid P. "How Rational is the Behavior of Economic Agents in Russia?" Comparative Economic Studies 34, no. 1 (April 1992): 26–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/ces.1992.3.

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4

Mazhara, Glib, and Volodymyr Kapustian. "BEHAVIORAL COMPONENTS IN RELATIONSHIPS OF ECONOMIC AGENTS (EXAMPLE OF THE UKRAINIAN CAR MARKET)." EUREKA: Social and Humanities 2 (March 31, 2020): 8–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.21303/2504-5571.2020.001184.

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In neoclassical economics a concept of individual is seen as a logical thinking machine, which accurately analyzes all information received and, based on it, makes decisions that maximize his/her personal gain and minimize risks while achieving his/her goals. Such behavior of a person is called rational. Such concept serves as a source of neoclassicism for the construction of supply and demand models, operation of tax systems, business cycles, inflation etc. It was not accepted to pay attention to the psychology of decision-making, it was believed, that these transient, random factors pale aga
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5

Valsan, Calin. "B is for Bias." International Journal of Applied Behavioral Economics 3, no. 2 (April 2014): 35–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/ijabe.2014040103.

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Standard economic theory assumes rational agents. Individuals are expected to have rational expectations and constantly optimize their choices. Modern economic and financial theory is build under the assumption of rationality. There is plenty of evidence from psychology, however, that individuals are biased and rely heavily on heuristics in order to make decisions. Yet, this is not a mere fluke, a behavioral oddity. Because the social and economic environment in which individuals evolve is complex, behavioral biases represent evolutionary adaptations allowing economic agents to deal with undec
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6

Chibale, Kelly. "Economic drug discovery and rational medicinal chemistry for tropical diseases." Pure and Applied Chemistry 77, no. 11 (January 1, 2005): 1957–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1351/pac200577111957.

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In order to fulfill research objectives around target-based drug discovery in the field of anti-infective agents that are prevalent mainly in poor Third World countries, selection of biological and chemical targets is guided by economic drug discovery and rational medicinal chemistry. Selection of biological targets of therapeutic relevance in multiple disease-causing organisms, as well as the use of natural products and existing drugs as chemical scaffolds for the discovery and design of novel therapeutics should be viable strategies underpinning drug discovery research in poor Third World co
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7

Pavlov, I. "Ambiguity Aversion Phenomenon and Rational Choice Theory." Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 10 (October 20, 2011): 16–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2011-10-16-34.

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The paper analyzes ambiguity aversion that is one of the main anomalies characteristic for the individual behaviour of economic agents making choice in the face of uncertainty. It shows that this phenomenon plays a major role in the contemporary rational choice theory and hence is widely discussed both by economic theorists and experimental economists. The article further elaborates on the nature of this phenomenon and considers its main causes.
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8

Jandoc, Karl, and Ruben Juarez. "An Experimental Study of Self-Enforcing Coalitions." Games 10, no. 3 (August 1, 2019): 31. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/g10030031.

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We study a model in which agents endowed with power compete for a divisible resource by forming coalitions with other agents. The coalition with the greatest power wins the resource and divides it among its members via proportional sharing. We conduct an economic experiment using this model to investigate possible behavioral factors that may explain deviations from theoretical predictions. The main findings show that agents display rational behavior when forming coalitions, especially when they know that a large proportion of their opponents play myopic strategies from the outset. Over time, h
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9

Shults, D. N. "Behavioral economics and DSGE-modeling." Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 1 (January 8, 2020): 47–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2020-1-47-65.

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The article considers the “behavioral” modification of the standard DSGE model proposed by X. Gabaix. In his model, agents behave in a boundedly rational manner, showing incomplete attention to macroeconomic statistics. Moreover, unlike other attempts to abandon the hypothesis of rational expectations in favor of a model of adaptive and/or static expectations, the Gabaix model is initially constructed taking into account the inattention of economic agents to macro variables. The consequence of bounded rationality is that monetary policy is less effective (compared to the model of rational expe
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10

Lipovská, Hana, Lucie Coufalová, and Libor Žídek. "Homo Economicus in the Shortage Economy." Danube 9, no. 4 (December 1, 2018): 207–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/danb-2018-0013.

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Abstract Rational agents react to incentives in the market economy as well as in the centrally planned economy. Economic laws are persistent regardless of the economic system. The legislative system changes the outcome of the game between economic agents and managers. The aim of this paper is to show how rational agents reacted to legislative incentives in the Soviet-type economy in Czechoslovakia in the 1970s and 1980s, that is, how they reacted to the general shortage in the centrally planned economy. Based on the original survey among former managers as well as on the legislative sources fr
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11

BORZENKO, Olena. "Hypothesis of rational expectations in the international economy: developments in different countries." Fìnansi Ukraïni 2021, no. 10 (December 1, 2021): 9–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.33763/finukr2021.10.009.

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The article reveals the development of the hypothesis of rational expectations according to the theory of rational expectations (TRO), where economic entities in their forecasts make optimal use of all available information, including the assessment of government policy, to form an opinion on future developments. It turns out that expectations in the economy are very important. Rational expectations are those that can be systematically erroneous. They do not necessarily have to be performed exactly, but this is only because economic processes are subject to random fluctuations that do not depe
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12

Böhm, Volker, and Jan Wenzelburger. "PERFECT PREDICTIONS IN ECONOMIC DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS WITH RANDOM PERTURBATIONS." Macroeconomic Dynamics 6, no. 5 (September 26, 2002): 687–712. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100501010136.

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The paper studies multivariate non linear economic dynamical systems with an expectations feedback subjected to exogenous perturbations. In these systems, agents form expectations on future variables based on subjective transition probabilities given by a Markov kernel. The notion of a perfect Markov kernel that generates rational expectations along all orbits of the system is proposed. Conditions are provided under which perfect Markov kernels exist. Applications are given to models of the Cobweb type, to multivariate affine-linear systems, and to the stochastic OLG model of economic growth.
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13

Weinert, Friedel. "Weber's Ideal Types as Models in the Social Sciences." Royal Institute of Philosophy Supplement 41 (September 1996): 73–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1358246100006056.

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There has recently been a great interest in models in the natural sciences. Models are used mainly for their representational functions: they help to concretize certain relationships between parameters in studying physical systems. For instance, we might be interested in representing how the planets orbit around the sun—a scale model of the solar system is an ideal tool for achieving this end. We are free to leave out one or two planets or ignore the moons which many of the planets have. Alternatively, we might be interested in studying the relationship between two particular parameters—how on
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14

Gilboa, Itzhak, Andrew W. Postlewaite, and David Schmeidler. "Probability and Uncertainty in Economic Modeling." Journal of Economic Perspectives 22, no. 3 (July 1, 2008): 173–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.22.3.173.

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Economic modeling assumes, for the most part, that agents are Bayesian, that is, that they entertain probabilistic beliefs, objective or subjective, regarding any event in question. We argue that the formation of such beliefs calls for a deeper examination and for explicit modeling. Models of belief formation may enhance our understanding of the probabilistic beliefs when these exist, and may also help us characterize situations in which entertaining such beliefs is neither realistic nor necessarily rational.
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15

Drakopoulos, S. A., and A. D. Karayiannis. "The Historical Development of Hierarchical Behavior in Economic Thought." Journal of the History of Economic Thought 26, no. 3 (September 2004): 363–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/1042771042000263849.

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One of the basic ideas underlying the established conception of rational behavior is the unlimited substitutability of preferences. Economic agents are assumed to compare and reduce everything to a common denominator: utility. The most obvious example of such preferences can be found in standard consumer theory where complete substitutability of every good is assumed in the sense that a loss of some units of one bundle can always be compensated by gain of some units of another commodity (such preferences are sometimes called Archimedian—see Borch 1968). This conception of preferences has a lon
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16

Asano, Yuki M., Jakob J. Kolb, Jobst Heitzig, and J. Doyne Farmer. "Emergent inequality and business cycles in a simple behavioral macroeconomic model." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118, no. 27 (July 2, 2021): e2025721118. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2025721118.

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Standard macroeconomic models assume that households are rational in the sense that they are perfect utility maximizers and explain economic dynamics in terms of shocks that drive the economy away from the steady state. Here we build on a standard macroeconomic model in which a single rational representative household makes a savings decision of how much to consume or invest. In our model, households are myopic boundedly rational heterogeneous agents embedded in a social network. From time to time each household updates its savings rate by copying the savings rate of its neighbor with the high
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17

Radonjic, Ognjen. "Fundamental uncertainty and Keynes' probability theory." Theoria, Beograd 50, no. 4 (2007): 35–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/theo0704035r.

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Within economic system agents daily make decisions. Those decisions are based on their expectations regarding future. Therefore, theoretical assumption about what do rational decision-makers really know about future and could agents make relatively reliable forecasts has colossal importance. Namely this assumption critically determines theoretical modeling of decision-making process. In economic theory we can make distinction between two opposite and irreconcilable standpoints on this issue. According to proponents of the Subjective Probability and the Rational Expectations Hypothesis future c
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18

Trček, Denis. "COMPUTATIONAL TRUST MANAGEMENT IN ECONOMICS PHENOMENA RESEARCH." Technological and Economic Development of Economy 24, no. 6 (November 21, 2018): 2241–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/20294913.2017.1347907.

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Economics phenomena are notably governed by dynamic, non-linear, bottom-up processes emerging from agents’ interactions. Therefore traditional top-down approaches provide a rather limited insight into these phenomena. Further, research in economics has been mostly focused on addressing tangible factors, while human agents in economic settings often do not adhere to rational reasoning, and trust is one such kind of reasoning. Thanks to recent technological advancements new approaches are enabled, and this paper proposes a novel and anticipatory research methodology for studying economics phenom
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19

Krause, George A. "Testing for the Strong Form of Rational Expectations with Heterogeneously Informed Agents." Political Analysis 8, no. 3 (March 23, 2000): 285–305. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.pan.a029817.

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In recent years, political scientists have tested for the existence of rational expectations (RE) using survey-based aggregate data on subjective economic perceptions. These tests suffer from several conceptual shortcomings of a nontrivial nature. In this study, the meaning of RE is clarified, and also a test for strong rational expectations (SRE) where citizens possess heterogeneous information levels is set forth. These empirical tests provide insights into what kinds of information citizens use in forming expectations from that which they do not utilize but could employ to arrive at more ac
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20

Ishbayev, G. G., A. V. Kuritsyn, and N. A. Lazareva. "Microeconomic analysis of the main ways of decomposition of the cost index." Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 11 (November 2, 2022): 149–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2022-11-149-160.

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The article considers a microeconomic analysis of the main options for decomposing the value index into price and quantity change factors, as a result of which it becomes possible to interpret these options in terms of changing the expectations of either the consumer or the producer. The purpose of the study is to show that the Laspeyres, Paasche and Fisher indices have not only an estimated, but also an important content function, reflecting changes in the market expectations of economic agents. To achieve the goal, a comparative analysis of the basic formulas of the concepts of adaptive and
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21

Strogonova, E. I. "Problems of activation of investment activity of the banking sector on the background of the development of regional economic systems." Scientific bulletin of the Southern Institute of Management, no. 3 (October 13, 2019): 88–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.31775/2305-3100-2019-3-88-91.

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In the modern financial system, depending on what are the volumetric factors of economic growth, it is necessary to maintain the competitiveness of the regional financial system. The modern banking sector is able to provide access to national economic agents. The rational and effective development of financial and economic relations between investment activities determines the individual characteristics of this system.
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22

Rosser, J. Barkley. "On the Complexities of Complex Economic Dynamics." Journal of Economic Perspectives 13, no. 4 (November 1, 1999): 169–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.13.4.169.

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Complex economic nonlinear dynamics endogenously do not converge to a point, a limit cycle, or an explosion. Their study developed out of earlier studies of cybernetic, catastrophic, and chaotic systems. Complexity analysis stresses interactions among dispersed agents without a global controller, tangled hierarchies, adaptive learning, evolution, and novelty, and out-of-equilibrium dynamics. Complexity methods include interacting particle systems, self-organized criticality, and evolutionary game theory, to simulate artificial stock markets and other phenomena. Theoretically, bounded rationali
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23

van Basshuysen, Philippe. "Rationality in games and institutions." Synthese 199, no. 5-6 (October 18, 2021): 12295–314. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11229-021-03333-y.

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AbstractAgainst the orthodox view of the Nash equilibrium as “the embodiment of the idea that economic agents are rational” (Aumann, 1985, p 43), some theorists have proposed ‘non-classical’ concepts of rationality in games, arguing that rational agents should be capable of improving upon inefficient equilibrium outcomes. This paper considers some implications of these proposals for economic theory, by focusing on institutional design. I argue that revisionist concepts of rationality conflict with the constraint that institutions should be designed to be incentive-compatible, that is, that the
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24

Giocoli, Nicola. "Do Prudent Agents Play Lotteries? Von Neumann's Contribution to the Theory of Rational Behavior." Journal of the History of Economic Thought 28, no. 1 (March 2006): 95–109. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10427710500509714.

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The year 2003 marked the 100th anniversary of the birth of John von Neumann (1903–1957), one of greatest geniuses of the last century. Beyond contributing to fields as diverse as set theory, quantum mechanics, atomic energy, and automatic computing, von Neumann has also had a decisive influence upon modern economics. From the invention of game theory to the axiomatization of expected utility, from the introduction of convex analysis and fixed-point techniques to the development of the balanced growth model, the von Neumann heritage can be clearly traced in several areas of our discipline. The
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25

Portera, Mariagrazia. "Is capitalism in our genes? Competition, cooperation and the idea of homo oeconomicus from an evolutionary perspective." Filozofija i drustvo 27, no. 1 (2016): 119–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/fid1601119p.

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In the last few years a growing number of academic disciplines in the Humanities and Social Sciences have turned to the evolutionary approach: Evolutionary Economics, among these disciplines, is a thriving subfield of Economics, which adopts Darwin?s evolutionary ideas and concepts for the understanding of economic system and modes of production. Evolutionary hypotheses such as the ?selfish gene? idea, the ideas of ?inclusive fitness?, ?struggle for life? and ?survival of the fittest? may suggest - and have indeed suggested - that humans are rational self-interest individuals, doing what they
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26

Branch, William A., Bruce McGough, and Mei Zhu. "Statistical sunspots." Theoretical Economics 17, no. 1 (2022): 291–329. http://dx.doi.org/10.3982/te3752.

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This paper shows that belief‐driven economic fluctuations are a general feature of many determinate macroeconomic models. In environments with hidden state variables, forecast‐model misspecification can break the link between indeterminacy and sunspots by establishing the existence of “statistical sunspots” in models that have a unique rational expectations equilibrium. To form expectations, agents regress on a set of observables that can include serially correlated nonfundamental factors (e.g., sunspots, judgment, expectations shocks, etc.). In equilibrium, agents attribute, in a self‐fulfill
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27

Wawrosz, Petr, Radim Valenchik, Ondrei Roubal, and Svetlana Sazanova. "Economic paradigms and economic communications." Upravlenie 7, no. 1 (May 7, 2019): 60–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.26425/2309-3633-2019-1-60-65.

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The development of modern economic theory is influenced by various factors of the external and internal environment. The factors of the external environment include: changes in the practice of economic entities, global economy, in the institutional environment, technological changes. The factors of the internal environment include: changes in the field of scientific knowledge in general, as well as changes in the methodology of economic science itself. The main driving force behind the development of economic theory is the evolution of economic paradigms, which has an impact on the methodologi
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28

Kaiser, Timo Pascal. "Can Social Interaction Based Expectations Create the Characteristics of the Business Cycle?" Applied Economics Quarterly: Volume 64, Issue 4 64, no. 4 (December 1, 2018): 325–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.3790/aeq.64.4.325.

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Abstract This paper introduces social-interaction based expectations in a New Keynesian frame and compares the characteristics with that of the standard rational expectation model. Agents in this model are connected with each other and build their rational expectation on their neighborhood’s opinions and recent economic developments. Instead of precise forecast they use rule of thumbs which reflect whether they assume a positive or a negative future. As result an endogenous business cycle arises. The autocorrelation of the output gap is much larger than in a model with rational expectation and
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29

Hommes, Cars. "Behavioral and Experimental Macroeconomics and Policy Analysis: A Complex Systems Approach." Journal of Economic Literature 59, no. 1 (March 1, 2021): 149–219. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jel.20191434.

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This survey discusses behavioral and experimental macroeconomics, emphasizing a complex systems perspective. The economy consists of boundedly rational heterogeneous agents who do not fully understand their complex environment and use simple decision heuristics. Central to our survey is the question of under which conditions a complex macro-system of interacting agents may or may not coordinate on the rational equilibrium outcome. A general finding is that under positive expectations feedback (strategic complementarity)—where optimistic (pessimistic) expectations can cause a boom (bust)—coordi
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30

Quaghebeur, Ewoud. "LEARNING AND THE SIZE OF THE GOVERNMENT SPENDING MULTIPLIER." Macroeconomic Dynamics 23, no. 8 (June 13, 2018): 3189–224. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100518000019.

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This paper examines the government spending multiplier when economic agents combine adaptive learning and knowledge about future fiscal policy to form their expectations. The analysis shows that the effects of a government spending shock substantially change when the rational expectations hypothesis is replaced by this learning mechanism. In contrast to the dynamics under rational expectations, a government spending shock in a small-scale new Keynesian DSGE model with learning crowds in private consumption and is associated with a positive comovement between real wages and hours worked. In the
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31

ZGONNIKOV, ARKADY, and IHOR LUBASHEVSKY. "UNSTABLE DYNAMICS OF ADAPTATION IN UNKNOWN ENVIRONMENT DUE TO NOVELTY SEEKING." Advances in Complex Systems 17, no. 03n04 (July 2014): 1450013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0219525914500131.

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Learning and adaptation play great role in emergent socio-economic phenomena. Complex dynamics has been previously found in the systems of multiple learning agents interacting via a simple game. Meanwhile, the single agent adaptation is considered trivially stable. We advocate the idea that adopting a more complex model of the individual behavior may result in a more diverse spectrum of macro-level behaviors. We develop an adaptation model based on the reinforcement learning framework extended by an additional processing channel. We scrutiny the dynamics of the single agent adapting to the unk
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32

Kristinevich, Sergey. "Institutional Intervention as a Rational Choice: Microeconomic Foundations of the Involuntary Exchange." Moscow University Economics Bulletin, no. 6-2018 (December 30, 2018): 24–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.38050/01300105201862.

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Based on the hypothesis of uneven distribution of violence potential among economic agents, the paper describes a model of power redistribution as the purposeful manipulation of rules and/or enforcement mechanisms. The author determines the methodological foundations, premises and theoretical framework for the study of institutional interventions as forms of involuntary exchange. The state of violent equilibrium is described: further use of potential power for the interventionist leads to a decrease in legitimacy and increased control costs; the resistance of the object of intervention to the
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33

Gans, Joshua S. "The Economic Consequences of R = 1: Towards a Workable Behavioural Epidemiological Model of Pandemics." Review of Economic Analysis 14, no. 1 (April 10, 2022): 3–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.15353/rea.v14i1.4786.

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This paper reviews the literature on incorporating behavioural elements into epidemiological models of pandemics. While modelling behaviour by forward-looking rational agents can provide some insight into the time paths of pandemics, the non-stationary nature of Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) models of viral spread makes characterisation of resulting equilibria difficult. Here I posit a shortcut that can be deployed to allow for a tractable equilibrium model of pandemics with intuitive comparative statics and also a clear prediction that effective reproduction numbers (that is, R) will ten
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34

Musshoff, Oliver, Norbert Hirschauer, and Philipp Hengel. "Are Business Management Games a Suitable Tool for Analyzing the Boundedly Rational Behavior of Economic Agents?" Modern Economy 02, no. 04 (2011): 468–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/me.2011.24052.

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Kirman, Alan. "ANTS AND NONOPTIMAL SELF-ORGANIZATION: LESSONS FOR MACROECONOMICS." Macroeconomic Dynamics 20, no. 2 (September 18, 2014): 601–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100514000339.

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This paper suggests that we need an alternative approach to economic modeling in general, and macroeconomic modeling in particular, if we are to capture salient characteristics of recent economic developments. Rather than focusing on models built on the basis of isolated, rational, optimizing agents, we should recognize that much simpler individuals following basic rules can collectively generate complex behavior. We have lessons to learn from studying the behavior of social insects for example. Noisy systems of interactive agents can generate aggregate phenomena such as sudden changes in the
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36

Woodford, M. "Whats Wrong with Economic Models? A Response to John Kay." Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 5 (May 20, 2012): 14–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2012-5-14-21.

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The article is a response to a polemical essay of J. Kay and his critique of macroeconomic modeling. The author shows that models are an indispensable instrument of economic analysis and that the only alternative would be the formulation and estimation of structural relationships between macroeconomic aggregates. But such a project is doomed to failure, because it does not account for the expectations of economic agents. However, as the author admits, the critique of rational expectations concept is justified. He shows possible directions that a more realistic analysis of ecpectation could tak
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37

Polyakova, Ekaterina, та Yulia Vymyatnina. "Formation of economic agents’ inflationary expectations and central bank policy effectiveness: Еxperimental approach". St Petersburg University Journal of Economic Studies 37, № 3 (2021): 442–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.21638/spbu05.2021.304.

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Expectations of heterogeneous economic agents play a pivotal role in modern macroeconomic theory. Since the standard assumption about a representative fully rational agent and his/her ability to form model-consistent expectations of the underlying process governing real economic outcomes is subject to well-grounded criticism, laboratory experiments are an important tool for gaining new knowledge about the formation of individual expectations. This paper provides an overview of the results of learning-to-forecast experiments based on the New Keynesian model that allow to identify specificities
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38

Harstad, R. M., and R. Selten. "Bounded-rationality models:tasks to become intellectually competitive." Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 5 (May 20, 2014): 4–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2014-5-4-26.

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Research in experimental economics has cogently challenged the fundamental precept of neoclassical economics that economic agents optimize. The last two decades have seen elaboration of boundedly rational models that try to move away from the optimization approach, in ways consistent with experimental findings. Nonetheless, the collection of alternative models has made little headway supplanting the dominant paradigm. We delineate key ways in which neoclassical microeconomics holds continuing and compelling advantages over bounded-rationality models, and suggest, via a few examples, the sorts
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39

Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, and Andrei Shleifer. "Overreaction and Diagnostic Expectations in Macroeconomics." Journal of Economic Perspectives 36, no. 3 (August 1, 2022): 223–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.36.3.223.

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We present the case for the centrality of overreaction in expectations for addressing important challenges in finance and macroeconomics. First, non-rational expectations by market participants can be measured and modeled in ways that address some of the key challenges posed by the rational expectations revolution, most importantly the idea that economic agents are forward-looking. Second, belief overreaction can account for many long-standing empirical puzzles in macro and finance, which emphasize the extreme volatility and boom-bust dynamics of key time series, such as stock prices, credit,
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40

Wang, Tong. "EXPECTATION EFFECTS OF REGIME SHIFTS ON LABOR MARKET DYNAMICS." Macroeconomic Dynamics 23, no. 07 (March 22, 2018): 3010–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100517001031.

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This paper shows that expectations of possible future regime shifts can contribute to recent deep downturn and stagnant recovery in the US labor market. Apart from the current economic regimes, rational agents consider how regimes will unfold in the future and form their expectations based on the probability of occurrence. Possible regime shifts considered are the stance of monetary policy toward inflation, the degree of real wage rigidity, and the degree of autocorrelation of the shock process. The anticipation of regime shifts alters agents' decision rules and feeds back to labor market dyna
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41

Thaler, Richard H. "Anomalies: The January Effect." Journal of Economic Perspectives 1, no. 1 (August 1, 1987): 197–201. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.1.1.197.

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This feature will report successful searches for disconfirming evidence -- economic anomalies. As suggested by Thomas Kuhn, an economic anomaly is a result inconsistent with the present economics paradigm. Economics is distinguished from other social sciences by the belief that most (all?) behavior can be explained by assuming that agents have stable, well-defined preferences and make rational choices consistent with those preferences in markets that (eventually) clear. An empirical result is anomalous if it is difficult to “rationalize,” or if implausible assumptions are necessary to explain
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42

Fuster, Andreas, David Laibson, and Brock Mendel. "Natural Expectations and Macroeconomic Fluctuations." Journal of Economic Perspectives 24, no. 4 (November 1, 2010): 67–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.24.4.67.

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A large body of empirical evidence suggests that beliefs systematically deviate from perfect rationality. Much of the evidence implies that economic agents tend to form forecasts that are excessively influenced by recent changes. We present a parsimonious quasi-rational model that we call natural expectations, which falls between rational expectations and (naïve) intuitive expectations. (Intuitive expectations are formed by running growth regressions with a limited number of right-hand-side variables, and this leads to excessively extrapolative beliefs in certain classes of environments). Natu
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43

Harstad, Ronald M., and Reinhard Selten. "Bounded-Rationality Models: Tasks to Become Intellectually Competitive." Journal of Economic Literature 51, no. 2 (June 1, 2013): 496–511. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jel.51.2.496.

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Research in experimental economics has cogently challenged the fundamental precept of neoclassical economics that economic agents optimize. The last two decades have seen elaboration of boundedly rational models that try to move away from the optimization approach, in ways consistent with experimental findings. Nonetheless, the collection of alternative models has made little headway supplanting the dominant paradigm. We delineate key ways in which neoclassical microeconomics holds continuing and compelling advantages over bounded-rationality models, and suggest, via a few examples, the sorts
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44

Alesina, Alberto, John Londregan, and Howard Rosenthal. "A Model of the Political Economy of the United States." American Political Science Review 87, no. 1 (March 1993): 12–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2938953.

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We develop and test a model of joint determination of economic growth and national election results in the United States. The formal model, which combines developments in the rational choice analysis of the behavior of economic agents and voters, leads to a system of equations in which the dependent variables are the growth rate and the vote shares in presidential and congressional elections. Our estimates support the theoretical claims that growth responds to unanticipated policy shifts and that voters use both on-year and midterm elections to balance the two parties. On the other hand, we fi
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45

Chen, Kaiji, and Yi Wen. "The Great Housing Boom of China." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 9, no. 2 (April 1, 2017): 73–114. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.20140234.

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China’s housing prices have been growing nearly twice as fast as national income over the past decade, despite a high vacancy rate and a high rate of return to capital. This paper interprets China’s housing boom as a rational bubble emerging naturally from its economic transition. The bubble arises because high capital returns driven by resource reallocation are not sustainable in the long run. Rational expectations of a strong future demand for alternative stores of value can thus induce currently productive agents to speculate in the housing market. Our model can quantitatively account for C
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46

Okhrymenko, Iryna, and Viktoria Biloshapka. "Strengthening monetary policy and managing inflation expectations in Ukraine in conditions of maritime." VUZF Review 7, no. 3 (September 27, 2022): 49–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.38188/2534-9228.22.3.05.

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The article considers the current problem of strengthening monetary policy in Ukraine. Competent monetary measures of the NBU in the first months of the war ensured the smooth functioning of the banking system and payments in the economy. Fixing the exchange rate was ensured by currency restrictions, as well as foreign exchange interventions. The gradual adaptation of Ukraine's economy to the war and the replacement of psychological shock by economic logic require a change in approaches to monetary policy.
 The article substantiates the need to strengthen the monetary policy of the NBU. S
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47

Nekipelov, Alexandr. "On the Spatial Dimension of General Equilibrium." Economics and the Mathematical Methods 58, no. 3 (2022): 5. http://dx.doi.org/10.31857/s042473880019631-3.

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Problems related to the spatial aspects of economic development are considered within the framework of such scientific disciplines as "regional economy", "spatial economy", "new economic geography", "theory of international trade" mainly from the point of view of partial analysis. The article proposes a "basic model" designed to integrate the spatial dimension into the theory of general equilibrium in relation to a simple exchange economy. Its analysis shows why the choice by economic agents of the place
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48

Benhabib, Jess, and Alberto Bisin. "Skewed Wealth Distributions: Theory and Empirics." Journal of Economic Literature 56, no. 4 (December 1, 2018): 1261–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jel.20161390.

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Invariably, across a cross-section of countries and time periods, wealth distributions are skewed to the right displaying thick upper tails, that is, large and slowly declining top wealth shares. In this survey, we categorize the theoretical studies on the distribution of wealth in terms of the underlying economic mechanisms generating skewness and thick tails. Further, we show how these mechanisms can be micro-founded by the consumption–savings decisions of rational agents in specific economic and demographic environments. Finally we map the large empirical work on the wealth distribution to
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49

Kasahara, Tetsuya. "Strategic Uncertainty in the Guessing Game and the Role and Effects of a Public Common Noise Player." International Journal of Applied Behavioral Economics 6, no. 2 (April 2017): 23–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/ijabe.2017040102.

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Guessing games are often used in the behavioral economics literature to investigate the rationality of economic agents. In this paper, the author uses a typical guessing game to examine not only the rationality of the test subjects but also the degree of their strategic uncertainty in playing the guessing game. A typically negative relationship was found between the frequency and the degree of strategic uncertainty, measured by proxy using the test subjects' guesses as to the standard deviation of all test subjects' answers regarding selection of a number from a specified interval. The role an
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50

Kay, J. "The Map Is Not the Territory: An Essay on the State of Economics." Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 5 (May 20, 2012): 4–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2012-5-4-13.

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The article claims that modern economics is in the state of crisis, because the major macroeconomic theories are in fact based on the concept of rational expectations, and the main method of research is considered to be the model-building with models as "artificial worlds". Therefore it is supposed that the agents expectations are consistent with a theoretical model. Such constructs are often based on aprioristic assumptions and only after the model is built are they confronted with reality. The author defends an alternative view of science which is methodologically more pluralist and sees ded
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