Tesis sobre el tema "Sovereign bond spreads"

Mestrado em Economia Internacional e Estudos Europeus
Uma investigação empírica é apresentada sobre os determinantes das Obrigações do Tesouro de 11 estados-membro da UEM, vis-à-vis a Alemanha. Os determinantes dizem respeito às condições de crédito, liquidez, bem como a condições internacionais, e o objectivo é compreender se a determinação do preço é sensível ao país em questão, bem como ao tempo. É uma investigação que cobre o tempo de vida do Euro, até ao fim de 2014. As análises de painel e SUR, juntamente com variáveis qualitativas, confirmam que a avaliação da dívida Europeia não foi estática ao longo do tempo e foi sensível ao país em questão. Os participantes no mercado de Obrigações estão crescentemente conscientes dos fundamentais macro-económicos e orçamentais.
An empirical investigation is presented on the determinants of 10-year Sovereign bond yield spreads of 11 EMU member states, vis-à-vis Germany. The determinants cover credit, liquidity and international conditions and the goal is to understand if the pricing is country and time ?sensitive. It spans over the lifetime of the euro, up until the end of 2014. Panel and SUR analyses coupled with qualitative variables have confirmed the pricing of European debt has not been static across time and EMU countries. Market participants are increasingly aware of macro-economic and fiscal fundamentals.

Mestrado em Economia Monetária e Financeira
Um conjunto de dados de painel de países da área do euro foi utilizado para avaliar os determinantes dos spreads de rentabilidade de títulos soberanos do primeiro trimestre de 1995 ao último trimestre de 2017. No período anterior à crise financeira, os spreads foram determinados principalmente pela dívida esperada em relação ao PIB, fator de risco de crédito e crescimento econômico. Com a erupção da crise financeira, a análise sugere que os mercados começaram a levar em consideração mais fundamentos para determinar o preço dos spreads, como risco de liquidez e risco internacional. Concluiu-se também que existe uma diferença entre os determinantes do spread entre o grupo periferico e o grupo central.
A panel dataset of euro area countries was used to assess the determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads from first quarter of 1995 to the last quarter of 2017. In the period before the financial crisis, the government bond yield spreads were mostly determined by the expected debt to GDP, the credit risk factor and economic growth. With the eruption of the financial crisis, the analysis suggests that markets have started to take into consideration more fundamentals to determine the price of government bond yield spreads, such as liquidity risk and international risk. It was also concluded that there is a difference between the determinants of the government bond yield spread of core and periphery group.
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The paper focuses on capital market integration at sovereign bond market in eleven selected euro zone countries (Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain). The first main objective is to test the degree of capital market integration before and after the crisis using Germany as a benchmark country and also among them as well. Secondly it evaluates and provides reasons of capital integration in time. The examination is applied through i) sigma convergence ii) yield spreads iii) correlation matrix iv) cointegration tests. I found almost zero yield differences before crisis. After 2008 results show segmentation in euro zone countries with certain special characteristic for countries with high credit ratings.

O rating soberano pode ser definido como uma nota dada pelas agências de risco às obrigações do governo central de um país. Apesar do primeiro rating atribuído ao país datar de 1986, percebe-se que sua importância cresceu muito a partir de 1994, com a emissão dos brady bonds. Em teoria, as agências de ratings teriam o papel de antever acontecimentos no mercado, e conseqüentemente, seriam suas análises que influenciariam o comportamento dos mesmos; no entanto, severas críticas vêm sendo feitas no sentido de que elas apenas reagem a acontecimentos já amplamente conhecidos. Este trabalho tem, portanto, o objetivo de analisar o impacto das avaliações de risco do país emitidas por estas agências sobre o principal título da dívida externa brasileira, o c-bond. Para avaliar estes impactos, foi analisado o comportamento do spread do c-bond em períodos anteriores e posteriores às divulgações das análises destas agências. O estudo indicou que os ratings soberanos influenciam as cotações do c-bond, sendo os impactos de suas alterações mais significativas para os casos de downgrade ou rebaixamentos das notas soberanas do país.
Sovereign rating can be defined as an assessment of the relative likelihood that a Government will default on its obligations. Although the first rating assigned to Brazil dates from 1986, the importance of sovereign rating increased as from 1994, by which time brady bonds were issued and begun to be actively traded. In theory, the role of credit rating would be to add new information to the market, and therefore, their analyses would influence market behaviour; however, several financial market observers have criticized them for just reacting to completely available information. This study therefore analyses the impacts of sovereign rating changes announcements on c-bond spreads. We analysed how c-bond spreads respond to the agencies´ announcements of changes in their sovereign risk assessments and our analyses indicate that the ratings changes do influence c-bond spreads, most significantly in downgrades events.

Mestrado em Finanças
Este estudo analisa os determinantes dos spreads de taxas de juro das obrigações de empresas no mercado obrigacionista português. A utilização da abordagem Option-Adjusted Spread ultrapassa as dificuldades na definição das emissões de dívida pública de referência para o cálculo dos spreads de taxa de juro e permite a comparação de obrigações com diferentes características. Os resultados do estudo sugerem que os indicadores das empresas que reflectem a gestão realizada, as características das obrigações, o risco soberano, as condições macroeconómicas do país e os efeitos externos, concorrem para a determinação dos níveis dos prémios de risco requeridos pelos investidores em obrigações de empresas. Os resultados obtidos apontam, também, para uma elevada dependência dos custos de financiamento do sector bancário local relativamente ao risco soberano e ao nível de endividamento público na economia.
This study analyses the determinants of corporate bond spreads in Portugal. Using an Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) approach we overcome the difficulties of comparing bonds with different cash-flow characteristics. OAS considers credit risk and contingent cash-flow risks, which allows the determination of a contingent premium analysis based on the bond?s characteristics. Our findings suggest that corporate bond risk spreads are determined by firm specific factors, bond characteristics, sovereign risk, macroeconomic conditions and external variables. We also find evidence of high dependency of the banking industry implicit funding costs on the sovereign risk proxy variable and the ratio of Public Debt to GDP.

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O objetivo deste trabalho é estimar os efeitos da crise financeira recente sobre os spreads dos títulos soberanos dos países emergentes. Os resultados corroboram a visão de que a atual crise financeira teve um impacto significativo sobre a percepção de risco dos países emergentes, elevando o prêmio de risco. A taxa de crescimento da economia, a taxa de câmbio real, as reservas internacionais, as dívidas interna e externa e o VIX também afetaram significativamente os spreads soberanos. Por fim, mostramos que a percepção de risco do Brasil foi menos afetada pela crise que nos demais países emergentes.
This study aims to estimate the effects of the recent economic crisis on the sovereign bonds spreads of emerging countries. The results support the view that the current financial crisis had a significant impact on the perception of emerging country risk, raising their risk premium. The economic growth rate, real exchange rate, international reserves, domestic and foreign debt and VIX also significantly affected the sovereign spreads. In addition, we also demonstrate that the perception of the Brazilian risk was less affected by the crisis than the remaining emerging countries.

In chapter 1, I investigate the return links and dynamic conditional correlations between the equity and commodity returns for G7 countries from 2000:01 to 2014:10. The commodity futures include BCOM Index which contains the futures and spot price of 22 commodities, Brent and Crude oil futures, gold and silver futures, Wheat, Corn and Soybean futures and CRB index. The finding indicates that during the full sample period GOLD, WHEAT and CORN have the smallest dynamic conditional correlations with all the Equity indexes. In addition, the correlations between the GOLD/Equity pairs are negative during the financial crisis. This fact indicates the benefit of hedging the stock portfolios with gold futures while we have stress in the financial markets. The results from hedging effectiveness suggest that all the commodity/stock portfolios provide better diversification benefits than the stock portfolios. In average, including CRB, BCOM and GOLD futures to the stock portfolios have the highest hedging effectiveness ratios. Chapter 2 investigates the impact of global and local variables on the Sovereign bond spreads for 22 developed countries in North America, Europe and Pacific Rim Regions, using monthly data from January 2010 to March 2015. There are a few main findings of this chaper. First, the global factors are considerably more important in déterminant the sovereign bond spreads for all the regions. Second, for the bond spread of each region over its local government bond, the countries’ domestic fundamentals are found to be more influential determinants of the spreads, compared to the spread over US government bond as a safe haven government bond. Third, the bond spreads in the Eurozone area is less influenced by the global factors compared to the other regions. Fourth, the sovereign bond spreads of all regions are positively related to the US corporate high yield spreads as a proxy of market sentiment and the log of VIX index as measurement for the investor risk aversion. The coefficient of the log of VIX index shows the strong power of the stock market implied volatility on determining the yield spreads in the fixed income market.

Master in Finance
In this project we test for evidence of contagion between the bond financial markets of the so-called PIIGS countries: Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain, since 2005 till the end of 2011. Despite the fact we look into all yield spread maturities, the focus will be on 5 year yield spread and credit-default-swap (CDS) spreads for 5 year senior debt. The reason why, is because 5 year CDS maturity is the most relevant and tradable (Wit, J. 2006), in the market and also to allow for comparison with yields. We find return spillovers through both an event study and the Vector Autoregressive methodology (VAR). This first analysis is qualitative, and just allows to conclude about patterns or directions. The event study investigates whether sovereign yields spreads and CDS spreads in a given country, react significantly to rating announcements of other countries. The VAR, gives impulse response functions which trace the effect over 10 days of each variable (yields and CDS spreads) of each country, after a one-time unexpected shock in yields or CDS spreads of the remaining countries. Later, also in consonance with this latter methodology, Granger causality tests were performed. Finally we construct a set of dummy variables and estimate some regressions, in order to make a quantitative approach of this study and to confirm the conclusions drawn previously.
Neste trabalho tentaremos testar se existe evidência de contágio no mercado obrigacionista dos já famosos, PIIGS: Portugal, Irlanda, Itália, Grécia e Espanha, de Janeiro de 2005 a Dezembro de 2011. Apesar do facto de começarmos por abranger todas as maturidades das yield spread, focar-nos-emos na yield spread a 5 anos e nos credit-default-swap (CDS) spreads (também a 5 anos). O motivo subjacente, assenta no facto de que os CDS a 5 anos são a maturidade mais relevante e transacionada no mercado, além de que, permite a comparação com o comportamento das yields spreads. Encontramos evidência de contágio ao nível dos retornos, através de um estudo de eventos e da metodologia do Vetor Auto Regressivo. Esta primeira análise é do tipo qualitativo e apenas permite aferir padrões de comportamento. O estudo de eventos testa se as yields spreads e CDS spreads dos países em estudo tendem a reagir significativamente a downgrades de rating de outros países. O Vetor autoregressivo, fornece as funções impulso-resposta que traçam a evolução ao longo de 10 dias de cada uma das variáveis (yields e CDS spreads) de cada um dos países, após um choque inesperado nas yields ou nos CDS dos restantes países em estudo. De seguida, também em consonância com esta última metodologia, foram realizados testes de causalidade de Granger. Por último, definimos algumas variáveis dummies e estimamos algumas regressões, de forma a abordar o tema de forma quantitativa e confirmar as conclusões tiradas anteriormente.

Mestrado em Economia Monetária e Financeira
Este estudo oferece uma análise empírica sobre o impacto da comunicação de política económica conduzida pelo BCE e a Comissão Europeia no mercado de títulos de divida soberana. Com este objetivo, foram recolhidas noticias relacionadas com a política monetária e orçamental desde do início do Euro até 2013. Os resultados do estudo mostram que os spreads dos títulos de divida soberana refletem três tipos de risco, risco de crédito através da atividade económica e competitividade, risco de liquidez e risco internacional. Os eventos de política monetária têm um papel relevante no mercado de títulos de divida soberana e parecem ser antecipados. Por outro lado, os eventos de política orçamental relacionados com os "braços" do PEC não têm um papel fundamental neste mercado.
This study provides an empirical analysis on how the communication of economic policy conducted by the ECB and the European Commission affects the European bond market. For this purpose, it was collected a set of periodic news from the beginning of the Euro until 2013, related with the monetary and fiscal policy events. The results of the study show that sovereign spreads reflect three sources of risk, credit risk through economic activity and competiveness, liquidity risk and international risk. The monetary events play a role in the bond market and they seem to be anticipated. On the other hand, fiscal policy events related with the "arms" of the SGP do not have a key role in this context.

Cette thèse s'intéresse aux questions d'accès aux marchés financiers dans les économies émergentes et en développement. La première partie donne un aperçu général des conséquences macroéconomiques de l'un des régimes de politique monétaire le plus favorable au marché - le ciblage d'inflation - en utilisant le cadre d'analyse de la méta-analyse. La deuxième partie analyse le risque et la stabilité des marchés obligataires des États. La troisième et dernière partie examine les effets disciplinaires résultant de la participation aux marchés obligataires souverains. Plusieurs résultats émergent. Au chapitre 1, les résultats indiquent que la littérature sur les effets macroéconomiques du ciblage d'inflation est sujette à des biais de publication. Après avoir purgé ces biais, le véritable effet du ciblage d'inflation reste statistiquement et économiquement significatif à la fois sur le niveau de l'inflation et la volatilité de la croissance économique, mais ne l’est pas sur la volatilité de l'inflation ou le taux de croissance économique réel. Aussi, les caractéristiques des études déterminent l’hétérogénéité des résultats de l'impact du ciblage d’inflation dans les études primaires. Le chapitre 2 montre que l'adoption d'un régime de ciblage d'inflation réduit le risque souverain dans les pays émergents. Cependant, cet effet varie systématiquement en fonction du cycle économique, de la politique budgétaire suivie, du niveau de développement et de la durée dans le ciblage. Le chapitre 3 montre que les envois de fonds des migrants, contrairement aux flux d'aide au développement, permettent de réduire le risque souverain. Cette réduction est plus marquée dans un pays avec un système financier moins développé, un degré d'ouverture commerciale élevé, un espace budgétaire faible et sans effet dans les pays dépendants des envois de fonds. Le chapitre 4 montre que les pays ayant des contrats d’échange sur risque de crédit sur leurs dettes sont plus sujets à des crises de dette. Il constate également que cet effet reste sensible aux caractéristiques structurelles des pays. Le chapitre 5 montre que la participation aux marchés obligataires de long terme (domestiques et internationaux) encourage les gouvernements des pays en développement à accroître leurs recettes fiscales intérieures. Il révèle également que l'effet favorable dépend du niveau des recettes de seigneuriage, d’endettement, du régime de change, du niveau de développement économique, du degré d’ouverture financière, et du développement financier. Le chapitre 6 montre que la présence de marchés obligataires domestiques, de long terme et liquides réduit considérablement le degré de dollarisation financière dans les pays en développement. Cet effet est plus important dans les pays avec un régime monétaire de ciblage d’inflation ou de change flottant, et à règles budgétaires. Enfin, il constate que la présence de marchés obligataires domestiques réduit la dollarisation financière à travers la baisse du niveau et de la variabilité de l'inflation, de la variabilité du taux de change nominal, et des revenus de seigneuriage
This thesis focuses on some critical issues of the access to international financial markets in developing and emerging market economies. The first part provides a general overview of the macroeconomic consequences of one of the most market-friendly monetary policy regime—inflation targeting—using a meta-regression analysis framework. The second part analyses government bond market risk and stability. The last part investigates the disciplining effects of government bond market participation—bond vigilantes. In Chapter 1, the results indicate that the literature of the macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting adoption is subject to publication bias. After purging the publication bias, the true effect of inflation targeting appears to be statistically and economically meaningful both on the level of inflation and the volatility of economic growth, but not statistically significant on inflation volatility or real GDP growth. Third, differences in the impact of inflation targeting found in primary studies can be explained by differences in studies characteristics including the sample characteristics, the empirical identification strategies, the choice of the control variables, inflation targeting implementation parameters, as well as the study period and some parameters related to the publication process. Chapter 2 shows that the adoption of inflation targeting regime reduces sovereign debt risk in emerging countries. However, this relative advantage of inflation targeting—compared to money or exchange rate targeting—varies systematically depending on the business cycle, the fiscal policy stance, the level of development, and the duration of countries’ experience with inflation targeting. Chapter 3 shows that remittances inflows significantly reduce bond spreads, whereas development aid does not. It also highlights that the effect of remittances on spreads arises in a regimes of lower developed financial system, higher degree of trade openness, lower fiscal space, and exclusively in non-remittances dependent regimes. Chapter 4 indicates that countries with credit default swaps contracts on their debts have a higher probability of experiencing a debt crisis, compared to countries without credit default swaps contracts. It also finds that the impact of credit default swaps initiation is sensitive to several structural characteristics including the level of economic development, the country creditworthiness at the timing of credit default swaps introduction, the public sector transparency, the central bank independence; and to the duration of countries’ experiences with credit default swaps transactions. Chapter 5 shows that bond markets participation encourages government in developing countries to increase their domestic tax revenue mobilization. Finally, it finds that bond markets participation improves the mobilization of internal taxes, compared to tax on international trade, and reduces their instability. Chapter 6 shows that the presence of domestic bond markets significantly reduces financial dollarization in domestic bond markets countries. This effect is larger for inflation targeting countries compared to non-inflation targeting countries, is apparent exclusively in a non-pegged exchange rate regime, and is larger when there is a fiscal rule that constrains the conduct of fiscal policy. Finally, it finds that the induced drop in inflation rate and its variability, nominal exchange rate variability, and seigniorage revenue are potential transmission mechanisms through which the presence of domestic bond markets reduces financial dollarization in domestic bond markets countries

This doctoral thesis consists of 4 self-contained chapters: Sovereign Credit Default Swap Premia. This comprehensive review of the literature on sovereign CDS spreads highlights current academic debates and contrasts them with contradictory statements from the popular press.  Real Economic Shocks and Sovereign Credit Risk. New empirical evidence highlights that global macroeconomic risk unspanned by global financial risk bears some responsibility for the strong co-movement in sovereign spreads. A model with only two global macroeconomic state variables rationalizes the existence of time-varying risk premia as a compensation for exposure to common U.S. business cycle risk. The Term Structure of CDS Spreads and Sovereign Credit Risk. The term structure of CDS spreads is an informative signal about the relative importance of global and country-specific risk factors for the time variation of sovereign credit spreads. An empirically validated model illustrates how local risk matters relatively more when the slope is negative, while systematic risk bears more responsibility when the slope is positive. Squeezed Everywhere - Disentangling Types of Liquidity and Testing Limits-to-Arbitrage. The CDS-Bond basis is used as a laboratory to disentangle different types of liquidity and to test limits-of-arbitrage. While asset-specific liquidity is cross-correlated in both the cash and derivative market, funding and market liquidity matter only for the former. The tests find strong evidence in favor of margin-based asset pricing and flight-to-quality effects.

Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2013. Sammanfattning jämte 4 uppsatser

Mestrado em Economia Monetária e Financeira
Os efeitos da crise financeira de 2007-2008 e da crise das dividas soberanas Europeias espalharam-se pelo sistema financeiro, os bancos e os estados soberanos. Estas crises expuseram as economias mais vulneráveis e causaram mudanças profundas na maneira como o risco é avaliado, incluindo o risco das dividas soberanas, aumentando o spread dos juros dos títulos de divida soberana. Esta dissertação analisa estes eventos, focando-se no caso Português e Espanhol depois de abordar a situação Europeia. A mudança do preço do risco soberano foi averiguada através de, uma análise em painel OLS/2SLS fixed effects num conjunto de países da Zona Euro e uma regressão SUR com Portugal e Espanha, ambas abrangendo o período entre 1999:11 até 2019:6. Os resultados mostram que o preço do risco soberano mudou com a crise e com o discurso "whatever it takes" de Mario Draghi. Nomeadamente, o preço atribuido ao risco de crédito, risco de liquidez e apetitite de risco da Zona Euro pelos mercados aumentou após as crises e diminui a seguir ao discurso de Mario Draghi. Não encontramos provas de mudanças no regime de preços após o discurso no caso Português e Espanhol.
The 2007-2008 financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis effects rippled through the financial system, banks and sovereign states. The crises exposed the most vulnerable economies and caused profound changes on how risk is assessed, including sovereign risk, raising sovereign bond yields spreads across the Eurozone. This dissertation analyzes these events, focusing on the Portuguese and Spanish case after providing an insight into the Eurozone. The change in the pricing of sovereign risk was assessed by performing an OLS/2SLS fixed effects panel analysis on a pool of Eurozone countries and a SUR regression with Portugal and Spain covering the period 1999:11 until 2019:6. Our main results show that the pricing of sovereign risk changed with the crisis and the "whatever it takes" speech of Mario Draghi. Specifically, markets pricing of the Eurozone credit risk, liquidity risk and the risk appetite increased after the crisis and it relaxed after Mario Draghi´s speech. We did not find evidence of pricing regime changes after the speech in the Portuguese and Spanish case.
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Cette thèse étudie le risque de crédit souverain et son impact sur les banques et les entreprises. Le premier essai montre que le risque de crédit bancaire est lié au risque de crédit souverain via l’exposition commune au risque systémique au lieu du sauvetage implicite ou de l’exposition excessive aux obligations émises par le pays d’origine. Dans le deuxième essai, je construis un modèle de structure du capital qui prédit une corrélation négative entre le niveau d’endettement des grands entreprises et le risque de crédit souverain à cause du sauvetage implicite. Cette prédiction est confirmée en suite par des preuves empiriques des entreprises dans la zone euro. Le troisième essai donne un modèle joint de CDS et d’obligation pour identifier les composantes de défaut et de liquidité dans les spreads de CDS et les rendements obligataires. Je trouve une composante de liquidité importante dans les spreads de CDS des pays périphériques de la zone euros et conclus que le fait de ne pas prendre en compte de l’illiquidité des CDS conduit à surestimer la composante de défaut dans le rendement obligataire
This thesis studies sovereign credit risk and its impact on banks and industrial firms. The first essay shows that bank credit risk is linked to sovereign credit risk through common exposure to systemic risk instead of implicit bailout or excessive holding of home country bonds. In the second essay, I build a trade-off model of capital structure which predicts negative correlation between optimal leverage of big firms and sovereign credit risk due to implicit bailout. The model prediction is confirmed by empirical evidence from firms in the euro area. The third essay provides a joint pricing model of CDS and bond to disentangle the default and liquidity component in CDS spread and bond yield spread. I find a remarkable liquidity component in the CDS spreads of peripheral euro area countries and conclude that ignoring CDS illiquidity leads to overestimation of default component in bond yield

This project investigates if there was any influence of credit rating agencies and long-termgovernment bond yields on each other before, during and after Europe’s sovereign debt crisis. This is addressed by estimating the relationship and causality between sovereign debt ratings or bond yields and macroeconomic and structural variables following a different procedure to explain ratings and bond yields. It is found evidence that, in distressed periods, ratings and yields do affect one another. This suggests that a rating downgrade might create a self-fulfilling prophecy, leading relatively stable countries to default.

Les périodes marquées par une aversion au risque intense sont souvent l’origine de distorsions notables dans les prix de marché, et de pertes substantielles pour les investisseurs. Chaque épisode de crise financière montre que les mouvements de ventes généralisées sur les marchés ont des conséquences très négatives sur l’économie réelle. Ainsi, explorer le phénomène d’aversion au risque et la dynamique de propagation du sentiment de panique sur les marchés financiers peut aider à appréhender ces périodes de forte volatilité.Dans ce rapport de thèse, nous explorons différentes dimensions du phénomène d’aversion au risque, dans le cadre de portefeuilles d’obligations souveraines Européennes. Le rendement des obligations d’Etat, quotté par les traders, est sensé refléter entre autre le risque que le Trésor fasse défaut sur sa dette, avant que l’obligation vienne à maturation. Il s’agit là du risque souverain. Les crises financières habituellement occasionnent un mouvement important des rendements vers des niveaux plus élevés. Ce type de correction reflète un accroissement du risque souverain, et implique nécessairement une hausse du coût de financement pour les Trésors nationaux. Un objectif de ce rapport est donc de fournir des détails inédits aux Trésors sur la manière dont les rendements obligataires sont sensés se détériorer en période d’aversion au risque.Chapitre I explore le risque souverain dans le cadre d’un modèle probabiliste impliquant des distributions à queues lourdes, ainsi que la méthode GAS qui permet de capturer la dynamique de la volatilité. L’ajustement obtenu avec les distributions Hyperboliques Généralisées est robuste, et les résultats laissent penser que notre approche est particulièrement efficace durant les périodes marquées par une volatilité erratique. Dans un but de simplification, nous décrivons la mise en place d’un estimateur de volatilité intemporel, sensé refléter la volatilité intrinsèque de chaque obligation. Cet estimateur suggère que la volatilité croit de manière quadratique lorsque celle-ci est exprimée en fonction de la fonction de répartition des variations de rendements. Dans un second temps nous explorons une version bivariée du modèle. La calibration, robuste, met en valeur les corrélations entre chaque obligation. En guise d’observation générale, notre analyse confirme que les distributions à queues épaisses sont tout à fait appropriées pour l’exploration des prix de marché en période de crise financière.Chapitre II explore différentes manières d’exploiter notre modèle probabiliste. Afin d’identifier la dynamique de la contagion entre les obligations souveraines, nous analysons la réaction attendue du marché à une série de chocs financiers. Nous considérons un niveau important de granularité pour ce qui est de la sévérité du choc sous-jacent, et ceci nous permet d’identifier des lois empiriques supposées généraliser le comportement de la réaction de marché lorsque l’aversion au risque s’intensifie. Puis, nous incorporons nos estimateurs de volatilité et de réaction de marché à certaines approches reconnues d’optimisation de portefeuille et nous notons une amélioration de la résistance des portefeuilles, dans cette nouvelle version. Finalement, nous développons une nouvelle méthodologie d’optimisation de portefeuille basée sur le principe de mean-reversion.Chapitre III est dédié au pricing de produits dérivés de taux. Nous considérons maintenant que l’aversion au risque cause l’émergence de discontinuités dans les prix de marché, que nous simulons par le biais de processus à sauts. Notre modèle se concentre sur les processus de Hawkes qui ont l’avantage de capturer la présence d’auto-excitation dans la volatilité. Nous développons une procédure de calibration qui se distingue des procédures habituelles. Les résultats de volatilité implicite sont cohérents avec la volatilité réalisée, et suggèrent que les coefficients de prime de risque ont été estimés avec succès
Periods of deep risk aversion are usually marked by sizeable distortions in market prices, and substantial losses in portfolios. As observed during financial crises, a generalized debacle in financial markets is a very negative shock for the real economy. Against this backdrop, it looks relevant to explore how risk aversion tends to affect global market valuations, especially if this exercise helps make the promotion of more optimal portfolio rebalancing procedures.In this dissertation, we investigate different dimensions of risk aversion, with a focus on European Sovereign debt securities. For a given sovereign bond, the (quoted) yield to maturity has to reflect the underlying risk that the Treasury may default on its debt, before maturation of the bond. This is sovereign risk. Financial crises usually occasion an upward correction in bond yields. Since higher yields reflect larger sovereign risk and higher funding costs, national Treasuries are usually inclined to get a deeper understanding of how sovereign risk could evolve under the influence of fierce risk aversion. This is another objective of our research analysis.In Chapter I, we consider a probabilistic approach to sovereign risk exploration, with the main purpose of illustrating the non-linear reaction ensuing from a gradual deterioration in market sentiment. We consider heavy-tailed distributions, and we use the Generalised Autoregressive Score method as a means to capture the volatility momentum. The goodness of fit provided by Generalised Hyperbolic distributions is compelling, and results suggest that our approach is particularly relevant to fit periods or erratic volatility, typical of financial crises. As an attempt to simplify the model, we focus on an empirical formulation of the ‘untemporal’ volatility of each security. This estimator of the intrinsic volatility suggests that volatility tends to accelerate in a quadratic manner when it is expressed against the cumulative distribution function of the yield variations. In a second part, we extend this approach to a problem of larger dimension and we explore the dynamics of risk aversion from a bivariate point of view. Results look robust and illustrate multivariate correlations between sovereign securities. As a general conclusion, heavy-tailed distributions look remarkably efficient to replicate the distribution of times-series affected by distorted volatility and erratic price variations.Chapter II explores different ways to extract information from the model, about financial contagion and how it is supposed to propagate through sovereign securities. In particular, we explore the market reaction to a series of many shocks with gradual intensity. Results offer a high degree of granularity and we extrapolate empirical rules on the expected market dynamics, when risk aversion intensifies. Then we incorporate our estimators of volatility and market reaction (to shocks) into popular portfolio optimisation procedures and we see positive implications on the general resilience of these portfolios. Finally, we also design an in-house methodology for optimal portfolio rebalancing, based on mean reversion.In Chapter III, we explore how sovereign risk tends to affect the price of financial derivatives in a risk-off environment. We consider that risk aversion and the ensuing volatility now favour the emergence of sizeable discontinuities in market prices, that we model with stochastic jumps. The different approaches we investigate extensively rely on Hawkes processes. These stochastic processes seek to estimate the durable impact of risk aversion onto the dynamics of jumps, via the introduction of dedicated self-excited loops. We develop an original approach to the calibration, different from conventional procedures. In the end, the calculated implied volatility remains in the vicinity of the realised volatility and there is a visible capability to jump on any rise in risk aversion

Cette thèse se pose la question de savoir comment la politique budgétaire pourrait être utilisée à des fins de financement du développement. Elle identifie et explore les canaux par lesquels les pays en développement peuvent efficacement mobiliser les ressources (internes et externes) pour le financement du développement. Pour cela, nous conduisons des recherches axées sur les politiques économiques (en utilisant des outils statistiques et économétriques appropriés) et nous formulons des recommandations de politiques économiques aux pays en développement. La première partie de cette thèse s’intéresse à la question de la mobilisation des ressources externes dans les pays en développement (Chapitre 1 et Chapitre 2). Dans le Chapitre 1, nous analysons les effets des dépenses publiques sur les spreads de taux dans les pays émergents. Nous montrons que les pays en développement pourraient avoir un meilleur accès aux marchés financiers internationaux en augmentant leurs investissements publics et en réduisant leurs dépenses courantes. Plus précisément, les dépenses en capital humain (éducation et santé) et autres infrastructures publiques réduisent considérablement les spreads de taux. Ils devraient également améliorer la qualité de la gouvernance puisque les marchés financiers récompensent les pays bien gouvernés à travers de meilleures conditions d'emprunt. Nous examinons, dans le Chapitre 2, la force des règles de politiques budgétaires en termes d’amélioration de l’accès des marchés financiers internationaux par les pays en développement. Nous trouvons que l’adoption de règles budgétaires réduit les taux d’intérêts sur la détention des obligations d’Etat souverains et par conséquent améliore l’accès aux marchés financiers. Nous expliquons ce résultat par le canal de la crédibilité de la politique budgétaire : les gouvernements crédibles sont récompensés sur les marchés financiers internationaux par de faibles taux d’intérêt et des notations élevées des dettes souveraines. Nos résultats prouvent que l’adoption et la bonne mise en œuvre des règles de politiques budgétaires constitue un moyen substantiel pour les décideurs publics d’améliorer l’accès des pays en développement aux marchés financiers internationaux. La deuxième partie de cette thèse se focalise sur ce que les pays en développement pourraient faire pour améliorer la mobilisation des ressources internes (Chapitre 3 et Chapitre 4). En effet, nous explorons la relation entre l’adoption des règles budgétaires et la réduction des inégalités de revenus (Chapitre 3) et nous trouvons que l’adoption des règles budgétaires réduit les inégalités de revenus. Ces pays pourront financer leur développement de façon soutenable (à travers la réduction des inégalités) en adoptant des règles budgétaires. En outre, nous évaluons les effets de la lutte contre les flux financiers illicites sur la mobilisation de recettes fiscales (Chapitre 4). Nous révélons que les pays qui respectent les Recommandations du Groupe d’Action Financière (GAFI) en matière de lutte contre le blanchiment d’argent et le financement du terrorisme (pays coopératifs) enregistrent des montants de recettes fiscales plus élevés comparativement aux pays qui ne respectent pas ces Recommandations (pays non coopératifs). Par conséquent, les pays en développement pourront mobiliser plus de recettes fiscales en mettant en œuvre des politiques visant à empêcher les flux financiers illicites. Par ailleurs, ils doivent mettre en place de bonnes institutions
The central question of this thesis is how fiscal policy could be used for development finance purposes. Indeed, we identify and investigate pathways through which developing states can mobilize resources to improve sustainable development. For this purpose, we conduct policy-oriented researches (using suitable statistical and econometrical tools) and provide advices for developing countries. The first part of the dissertation addresses the issue of external resources mobilization in developing countries (Chapter 1 and Chapter 2). In Chapter 1, we investigate the effects of public expenditures on sovereign bond spreads in emerging market countries. We show that developing countries could have a better access to international financial market by supporting public investment and reducing current spending. Specifically, spending on human capital (education and health) and other public infrastructures significantly reduce bond spreads. They should also improve the quality of governance since financial markets award well-governed countries with better borrowing conditions. We examine, in Chapter 2, the strength of fiscal rules in terms of improving financial markets access for developing countries. We find that the adoption of fiscal rules reduces sovereign bond spreads and consequently improve financial market access. Indeed, this result is explained by the credibility of fiscal policy channel: more credible governments are rewarded in the international financial markets with low sovereign bond spreads and high sovereign debt ratings. Our findings confirm that the adoption and sound implementation of fiscal rules is an instrument for policy makers to improve developing countries’ financial market access. The second part of the dissertation focuses on what developing countries could do to improve internal resources mobilization (Chapter 3 and Chapter 4). As a matter of fact, we explore the relationship between fiscal rules and inequality (Chapter 3) and find that fiscal rules adoption contributes to reduce inequality in developing countries. The policy implication is that developing countries could finance their development in a sustainable way (via the reduction of inequalities) by adopting fiscal rules. Moreover, we assess the effects of combating illicit financial flows on domestic tax revenue mobilization in developing countries (Chapter 4). We highlight that countries which cooperate with international standards for anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) are more able to mobilize tax revenue than countries which do not cooperate. Consequently, developing countries could mobilize more domestic tax revenue by implementing policies to curtail illicit financial flows. They should establish sound institutions

Cette thèse étudie le rôle des anticipations dans les cycles économiques en analysant trois types d’anticipations différentes. Dans un premier temps, je me concentre sur une explication théorique des cycles économiques générée par des changements d'anticipations qui se révèlent auto-réalisatrices. Ce chapitre contribue à améliorer un puzzle provenant de la littérature sunspot, soutenant ainsi une interprétation des cycles économiques basée sur les prophéties auto-réalisatrices. Dans un deuxième temps, j’analyse empiriquement comment les annonces de la banque centrale se propagent à l’économie via la modification des croyances des acteurs du marché. Ce chapitre montre que des annonces crédibles sur les futures politiques monétaires non conventionnelles peuvent être utilisées comme un instrument de coordination des anticipations dans un contexte de crise de la dette souveraine. Dans un troisième temps, je m'intéresse à un concept plus large d'anticipations et étudie le pouvoir prédictif du climat politique sur la tarification du risque souverain. Ce chapitre montre que le climat politique apporte un pouvoir prédictif supplémentaire aux spreads des obligations d'Etat, au-delà des déterminants traditionnels. Différentes méthodologies sont utilisées dans cette thèse, notamment des analyses théoriques et empiriques, du web scraping ainsi que des méthodes d'apprentissage automatique et d'analyse textuelle. Par ailleurs, j’exploite dans cette thèse des données innovantes provenant du réseau social Twitter. Tous mes résultats transmettent le même message : les anticipations comptent, tant pour la recherche en économie que pour l'élaboration de politiques économiques
In this thesis, I investigate the role of expectations in business cycles by studying three different kinds of expectations. First, I focus on a theoretical explanation of business cycles generated by changes in expectations which turn out to be self-fulfilling. This chapter improves a puzzle from the sunspot literature, thereby giving more evidence towards an interpretation of business cycles based on self-fulfilling prophecies. Second, I empirically analyze the propagation mechanisms of central bank announcements through changes in market participants' beliefs. This chapter shows that credible announcements about future unconventional monetary policies can be used as a coordination device in a sovereign debt crisis framework. Third, I study a broader concept of expectations and investigate the predictive power of political climate on the pricing of sovereign risk. This chapter shows that political climate provides additional predictive power beyond the traditional determinants of sovereign bond spreads. In order to interrogate the role of expectations in business cycles from multiple angles, I use a variety of methodologies in this thesis, including theoretical and empirical analyses, web scraping, machine learning, and textual analysis. In addition, this thesis uses innovative data from the social media platform Twitter. Regardless of my methodology, all my results convey the same message: expectations matter, both for economic research and economically sound policy-making

The aftermath of the financial crisis that had its beginning in 2007 has put to the fore the increase of the public debt in OECD countries. Global economic recessions and public bailouts of banks have resulted in a significant concern about the sovereign default risk mainly on the Eurozone countries facing structural economic imbalances. Using Credit Default Swaps (CDS) as a measure of sovereign credit risk, the purpose of this study is to analyze the link between sovereign default risk and income inequality for a broad panel of 26 European countries over the years 2005 to 2010. Applying the System GMM techniques the findings support the hypothesis that income inequality is a significant predictor of the sovereign credit risk. The empirical results also show that income inequality has more impact on the dynamics of the CDS spreads in times of economic downturns.
A recente crise financeira que teve origem no início de 2007 expôs o aumento da dívida pública em alguns países da OCDE. Os desequilíbrios macroeconómicos e a vulnerabilidade do sistema financeiro global estão associados ao risco de falência soberano principalmente nos países da Zona Euro desprovidos de mecanismos autónomos de política monetária. O objetivo deste estudo é analisar a relação existente entre o risco de falência soberano medido através dos spreads dos CDS e a desigualdade de rendimento para um painel de 26 países Europeus ao longo do período de 2005 a 2010. Utilizando o estimador GMM-System como metodologia econométrica, os resultados do trabalho empírico suportam a hipótese de partida de que a desigualdade de rendimento constitui um importante determinante no risco de crédito soberano. Como principal evidência empírica a retirar deste estudo, sublinha-se que a desigualdade de rendimento tem maior impacto na dinâmica dos CDS em períodos de recessão económica.

碩士
國立政治大學
財務管理研究所
98
The thesis examines the dynamic relation between CDS and bond spread on developed European sovereign bonds. We also investigate which variables will affect the changes of CDS and bond spreads. We found that price discovery occurs on CDS more often, and the basis between CDS and bond spread has a positive relationship with credit risk. Due to the special characteristic of developed European sovereign bonds, the German sovereign bond yield is a better benchmark for risk-free rate than the Euro swap rate. Also we found that the change of rates and the return on stock market affect the European sovereign credit spread, but the effect of volatility on credit spread is limited. The reason should be the low-risk nature of these bonds in the past, which made them “safe” products for capitals to park.

Classificação: G15, E62
Esta dissertação consiste numa análise mensal da evolução das yields de obrigações emitidas, a 10 anos, pela Republica Portuguesa, comparativamente aos títulos, com a mesma maturidade, suportados pelo Governo Alemão. Através deste estudo pretendemos identificar os principais determinantes, e analisar a evolução, dos juros da divida Portuguesa durante o período Janeiro de 2007 a Dezembro de 2014. Factores de risco específico e agregado são ambos importantes para um estudo explicativo da evolução das yields associadas à divida soberana do estado Português. No entanto, a importância relativa de cada um deles é variável, ao longo do tempo, em linha com mudanças estruturais ocorridas na envolvente. No período que antecedeu a Crise Financeira Global, os juros da dívida Portuguesa, à semelhança de outras economias europeias, eram primeiramente explicados por um modelo de convergência económica. Mais tarde, com o início da Crise da Dívida Soberana, os investidores aumentaram a importância concedida a indicadores macroeconómicos dos países emitentes. Todavia, dentro de um contexto de instabilidade económico-financeira uma avaliação imparcial fica comprometida. A visível mudança ocorrida no processo de percepção de risco, e consequente atribuição de valor de mercado à divida soberana nacional, é explicada por um aumento no grau de incerteza e de aversão ao risco. Concluímos portanto, que anteriormente ao inicio da crise financeira global, o valor das yields estava a baixo do seu valor real (sobrevalorização de preços), e com a crise da divida soberana o seu valor permaneceu “biased”, mas, desta vez, na direcção oposta (subvalorização de preços).
The Portuguese Sovereign debt spread, from January of 2007 to December of 2014, is analyzed in this dissertation. Its main determinants are identified comparing monthly data and using Germany as a benchmark (benchmarked with German government bonds). The main objective of the present work is to examine the Portuguese Government bond yield spread sensitivity to changes both in the common and idiosyncratic risk factors. We investigated whether or not the relative importance of common and idiosyncratic risk factors has changed over time, aligned with structural changes in the economy. The main conclusions are that both idiosyncratic and common risk factors explain the Portuguese sovereign debt spread developments. Although their relative importance has changed over time in line with disruptive structural market incidents. Prior to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) the Portuguese government bond yield spreads were mostly driven by a trade convergence model. After the eruption of the Euro area sovereign debt crisis, investors increased their attention on macroeconomic fundamentals. However, in a scenario of financial distress, objective assessment of macroeconomic indicators is compromised, leading to investors‟ overreaction. This shift in the way investors perceive and price risk is mostly explained by the higher levels of uncertainty and increased risk aversion, typical in moments of market turmoil. Hence, we conclude that before the GFC, Portuguese government bond yields were below their true value (bond prices overvalued), and with the Euro area debt crisis it continued biased, but this time in the opposite direction (bond prices undervalued). JEL Classification: G15, E62 Keywords:

O principal objetivo desta dissertação passa por estudar empiricamente a relação entre o risco bancário e o risco soberano. Paralelamente, e controlando por variáveis micro e macroeconómicas, estudou-se ainda o efeito causado pela crise financeira e pelo programa de compra de obrigações hipotecárias por parte do Banco Central Europeu (BCE) no spread de crédito de obrigações emitidas por bancos da europa ocidental entre 1 de Janeiro de 2000 e 31 de Dezembro de 2011. A amostra utilizada, que serviu de base para a elaboração da análise empírica, é composta por 16,860 observações, dividindo-se em três categorias de obrigações: Obrigações Hipotecárias (covered bonds) – 10.920 observações; Obrigações tradicionais (bank bonds) – 5.695 observações; e obrigações garantidas por créditos (securitization bonds) – 245 observações. Tendo por base a análise estatística realizada, concluiu-se que a crise financeira de 2007/2008 teve um impacto substancial no aumento do risco bancário, já que os spreads praticados após o seu início aumentaram substancialmente. Concluímos também que (i) o risco soberano influencia o spread das obrigações emitidas pelos bancos , após controlar por variáveis micro e macroeconómicas; (ii) em tempos de crise financeira a relação entre o risco soberano e o risco bancário torna-se mais estreita; e (iii) este efeito verifica-se para Covered Bonds e Bank Bonds, mas não para Securitization Bonds, tendo subjacente qualquer uma das três proxies utilizadas para medir o risco soberano (Rating, Yields de obrigações e CDS). Relativamente ao risco soberano, conclui-se que os CDS são a proxy do risco soberano que influencia de forma mais significativa as obrigações emitidas pelos bancos. Conclui-se ainda que os países com melhor solidez financeira fornecem uma rede de proteção aos “seus” bancos em tempos de crise. Adicionalmente, concluiu-se que o programa de compra de obrigações hipotecárias por parte do BCE atingiu os seus objectivos primários, permitindo uma redução do custo de financiamento dos bancos. No entanto, com o início da crise da dívida soberana os seus efeitos foram-se desvanecendo. Os resultados obtidos mantêm-se mesmo quando são introduzidas variáveis contabilísticas e financeiras dos bancos nos modelos de regressão.
This dissertation aims to empirically analyze the relationship between Bank Risk and Sovereign Risk. Simultaneously, and controlling for micro and macroeconomic variables, it also examine the impact of both the financial crisis and the first Covered Bond Purchase Programme launched by the European Central Bank on bank bond credit spreads. Using a sample of 16,860 bonds – 10,920 Covered Bonds; 5,695 Bank Bonds; and 245 Securitization Bonds - issued by Western European banks between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2011, we found that: (i) the 2007/2008 financial crisis had a significant impact on banking risk, because it led to a rise of banks’ funding costs, as the spreads paid at time of issuance increased substantially; (ii) the sovereign risk affects the bonds spreads , after controlling micro and macroeconomic variables;(iii) specially in times of financial distress, sovereign and bank risk relationship becomes more tight. This effect affects more specifically Covered Bonds (CB) and Bank Bonds (BB), but not Securitization Bonds (SB). To measure sovereign risk, we used three proxies: Rating, Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and Government Bond Yields. We also concluded that CDS are the sovereign risk proxy that influences more significantly bond spreads; countries with better soundness provide a safety net to “their banks” in times of financial crisis; and the ECB Covered Bond Purchase Programme fulfilled their main goals leading to a decrease in credit spreads. However, with the appearance of the Sovereign Debt Crisis, the effects started to fade. For robustness tests, we used bank’s accounting and financial ratios, and the results proved to be the same.

Dissertação de mestrado em Economia Monetária, Bancária e Financeira
A crise de dívida soberana na zona Euro foi acompanhada por um aumento dos spreads das obrigações soberanas. Os sucessivos downgrades que foram atribuídos pelas agências de rating foram alvos de diversas críticas pelo seu carácter tardio e excessivo. O objetivo principal desta dissertação é analisar a causa e efeito entre os spreads e as classificações de crédito das principais agências de rating, no que respeita às obrigações soberanas portuguesas. Para o efeito foi utilizado um modelo vetorial autorregressivo (VAR), sendo a sua interpretação auxiliada pela causalidade à Granger, funções impulso-resposta e decomposição da variância dos erros de previsão. Será apresentada uma análise comparativa entre os spreads e os ratings a dois níveis, utilizando uma única variável (a média de classificações da Fitch, Moody’s e Standard and Poor’s) e incluindo uma variável por agência. Os resultados demonstram que existe um elevado impacto dos ratings sobre o spread, especialmente quando se trata de alterações de classificação da Fitch. Por seu lado, as agências de rating parecem atribuir baixa importância ao spread. Apesar do exposto, a Standard & Poor’s para além de liderar as descidas de classificação da dívida portuguesa, também surge como a agência com maior impacto sobre as suas concorrentes.
The sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone was followed by the widening of bond yield spreads. The successive downgrades that were assigned by rating agencies were object of criticism for the lag and overreacting behaviour. The main objective of this dissertation is to analyse the cause and effect between yield spreads and the announcements from major credit rating agencies, as regards to Portugal sovereign bonds. It was employed a vector autoregressive model (VAR), including Granger causality, impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition. A comparative analysis between spreads and ratings will be presented at two levels: using a single variable (ratings average from Fitch, Moody's and Standard and Poor's) and including a variable for each agency. The main finding is that ratings have a high impact on spread, especially if they are related to Fitch rating. However, rating agencies do not seem to give much importance to spread. With reference to Standard & Poor's, not only it seems to lead the Portuguese credit rating downgrades but also looks to be the agency with the greatest impact on their competitors.

Com este trabalho pretendemos avaliar a eficácia e a necessidade da regulação “Short Selling and Certain Aspects of Credit Default Sawps” da União Europeia, a qual proíbe os naked sovereign CDS, nomeadamente no que respeita ao comportamento explosivo dos spreads dos SCDSs e bonds de países da Área Económica Europeia, após estes experienciarem situações de grande stress financeiro. Fazendo uso do teste PSY, teste de comportamentos exuberantes de mercado, ou de excesso de reação nos spreads dos CDSs que assenta na nova metodologia desenvolvida por Phillips, Shi e Yu (2015), observamos a existência de bolhas financeiras, ou seja, de comportamentos explosivos nos spreads, antes e após a introdução do novo quadro regulatório em Chipre, Grécia e Portugal no período compreendido entre Janeiro de 2008 e Março de 2012. Sendo que, o objetivo da regulação era evitar o comportamento explosivo dos spreads em situações de grande stress financeiro, como as experienciadas pelos países escolhidos para análise, de forma a evitar espirais de preço negativas das sovereign bonds, concluímos pela ineficácia do tipo de regulação adotado pela União Europeia e questionamos a necessidade da mesma, face aos resultados obtidos.
With this thesis we intend to evaluate the effectiveness and the need for a European Union´s regulation called "Short Selling and Certain Aspects of Credit Default Sawps", which prohibits naked sovereign CDS, in particular with regard to the explosive behavior of SCDS spreads and bonds spreads of countries within the European Economic Area, after these experienced situations of great financial disstress. Making use of PSY test, a test to observe exuberant behavior in the market, or a test to observe excess reaction in CDS spreads which is based on a new methodology developed by Phillips, Shi and Yu (2015), we observed the existence of financial bubbles, ie explosive spreads behavior, before and after the introduction of the new regulatory framework in Cyprus, Greece and Portugal in the window period between January 2008 and March 2012. Since the purpose of the regulation was to avoid the explosive behavior of spreads in situations of great financial disstress, as the ones experienced by the countries chosen for analysis, in order to prevent negative price spirals of sovereign bonds, we concluded for the ineffectiveness of the type of regulation adopted by the European Union and questioned the need for it, given the results obtained.