Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Behavioral economics, experimental economics, risk-taking »
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Articles de revues sur le sujet "Behavioral economics, experimental economics, risk-taking"
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Zhong, Songfa, Soo Hong Chew, Eric Set, Junsen Zhang, Hong Xue, Pak C. Sham, Richard P. Ebstein et Salomon Israel. « The Heritability of Attitude Toward Economic Risk ». Twin Research and Human Genetics 12, no 1 (1 février 2009) : 103–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.1375/twin.12.1.103.
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AbstractThe propensity to take risk underpins a wide variety of decision-making behavior, ranging from common ones such as asking for directions and trying out a new restaurant to more substantial economic decisions involving, for instance, one's investment or career. Despite the fundamental role of risk attitude in the economy, its genetic basis remains unknown. Using an experimental economics protocol combined with a classical twin strategy, we provide the first direct evidence of the heritability of economic risk attitude, at 57%. We do not find a significant role for shared environmental effects, a common observation in behavioral genetics that is contrary to commonly held views in economics. Our findings complement recent neuroeconomic studies in enhancing the understanding of the neurobiological basis of risk taking.
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Barberis, Nicholas C. « Thirty Years of Prospect Theory in Economics : A Review and Assessment ». Journal of Economic Perspectives 27, no 1 (1 février 2013) : 173–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.27.1.173.
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In 1979, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, published a paper in Econometrica titled “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk.” The paper presented a new model of risk attitudes called “prospect theory,” which elegantly captured the experimental evidence on risk taking, including the documented violations of expected utility. More than 30 years later, prospect theory is still widely viewed as the best available description of how people evaluate risk in experimental settings. However, there are still relatively few well-known and broadly accepted applications of prospect theory in economics. One might be tempted to conclude that, even if prospect theory is an excellent description of behavior in experimental settings, it is less relevant outside the laboratory. In my view, this lesson would be incorrect. Over the past decade, researchers in the field of behavioral economics have put a lot of thought into how prospect theory should be applied in economic settings. This effort is bearing fruit. A significant body of theoretical work now incorporates the ideas in prospect theory into more traditional models of economic behavior, and a growing body of empirical work tests the predictions of these new theories. I am optimistic that some insights of prospect theory will eventually find a permanent and significant place in mainstream economic analysis.
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Cui, Pan, Xuanwen Liu et Fenfang Lin. « An Experimental Analysis of Individual Irregularities Under the Temptation of Money : Network Simulation Interactive Platform Based on HTML5 ». Asian Business Research 4, no 3 (8 octobre 2019) : 79. http://dx.doi.org/10.20849/abr.v4i3.689.
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Irregularities in economic activities are actually the result of mutual game between different stakeholders. This research combines psychology and experimental economics to analyze irregularities. This research is done on the HBuilder software platform, using HTML5 and other technologies. According to the Nash Equilibrium Theory, the behavioral trajectory of the participant is described. In the real incentive situation, the individual's decision-making behavior in the face of social dilemma is investigated. From the perspective of cost-benefit, the game characteristics of individual irregularities are analyzed. The exogenous punishment mechanism and the inherent personality trait are respectively Dimensions are explored. Experiment result shows: The exogenous punishment mechanism will have a significant inhibitory effect on individual irregularities. The level of risk appetite is related to gender and determines the individual's risk-taking tendency.
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TISDELL, CLEM. « LINKING POLICIES FOR BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION WITH ADVANCES IN BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS ». Singapore Economic Review 50, spec01 (janvier 2005) : 449–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0217590805002141.
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Global biodiversity loss and its consequences for human welfare and sustainable development have become major concerns. Economists have, therefore, given increasing attention to the policy issues involved in the management of genetic resources. To do so, they often apply empirical methods developed in behavioral and experimental economics to estimate economic values placed on genetic resources. This trend away from almost exclusive dependence on axiomatic methods is welcomed. However, major valuation methods used in behavioral economics raise new scientific challenges. Possibly the most important of these include deficiencies in the knowledge of the public (and researchers) about genetic resources, implications for the formation of values of supplying information to focal individuals, and limits to rationality. These issues are explored for stated-preference techniques of valuation (e.g., contingent valuation) as well as revealed preference techniques, especially the travel cost method. They are illustrated by Australian and Asian examples. Taking into account behavioral and psychological models and empirical evidence, particular attention is given to how elicitation of preferences, and supply of information to individuals, influences their preferences about biodiversity. Policy consequences are outlined.
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Brock, J. Michelle, Andreas Lange et Erkut Y. Ozbay. « Dictating the Risk : Experimental Evidence on Giving in Risky Environments ». American Economic Review 103, no 1 (1 février 2013) : 415–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.103.1.415.
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We study if and how social preferences extend to risky environments. We provide experimental evidence from different versions of dictator games with risky outcomes and establish that preferences that are exclusively based on ex post or on ex ante comparisons cannot generate the observed behavioral patterns. The more money decision-makers transfer in the standard dictator game, the more likely they are to equalize payoff chances under risk. Risk to the recipient does, however, generally decrease the transferred amount. Ultimately, a utility function with a combination of ex post and ex ante fairness concerns may best describe behavior. (JEL C72, D63, D64, D81)
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Lefebvre, Mathieu, et Ferdinand M. Vieider. « Risk taking of executives under different incentive contracts : Experimental evidence ». Journal of Economic Behavior & ; Organization 97 (janvier 2014) : 27–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2013.10.008.
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Bauer, Michal, Julie Chytilová et Jonathan Morduch. « Behavioral Foundations of Microcredit : Experimental and Survey Evidence from Rural India ». American Economic Review 102, no 2 (1 avril 2012) : 1118–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.102.2.1118.
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We use experimental measures of time discounting and risk aversion for villagers in south India to highlight behavioral features of microcredit, a financial tool designed to reduce poverty and fix credit market imperfections. The evidence suggests that microcredit contracts may do more than reduce moral hazard and adverse selection by imposing new forms of discipline on borrowers. We find that, conditional on borrowing from any source, women with present-biased preferences are more likely than others to borrow through microcredit institutions. Another particular contribution of microcredit may thus be to provide helpful structure for borrowers seeking self-discipline. JEL: G21, I38, O15, O16, O18
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Carter, Michael, Ghada Elabed et Elena Serfilippi. « Behavioral economic insights on index insurance design ». Agricultural Finance Review 75, no 1 (5 mai 2015) : 8–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/afr-03-2015-0013.
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Purpose – While behavioral economic experiments have uncovered a wealth of insights concerning how people decide in the face of risk and uncertainty, the implications of these insights for the demand for agricultural insurance are under-explored. The purpose of this paper is to report on results from two recent field experiments that measure the extent to which farmer behavior departs from the predictions of expected utility theory and derives the implications of these departures for insurance demand. Design/methodology/approach – Framed behavioral field experiments were played with random samples of West African Cotton farmers who lived in areas that were being incorporated into a cotton insurance pilot program. Findings – Substantial numbers of farmers depart from expected utility behavior in ways that predict excess sensitivity to uncovered basis risk in insurance contracts; and, the fact that insurance premiums are typically framed as certain and unavoidable, while benefits are unknown and stochastic. Originality/value – Using novel field experimental methods, the work summarized here indicates that more careful design of index insurance contracts in conformity with the findings of behavioral economics could result in larger contract uptake and, ultimately, larger development impacts.
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Veszteg, Róbert F., Kaori Yamakawa, Tetsuya Matsubayashi et Michiko Ueda. « Acute stress does not affect economic behavior in the experimental laboratory ». PLOS ONE 16, no 1 (7 janvier 2021) : e0244881. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0244881.
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We report statistical results from a laboratory experiment in which participants were required to make decisions with monetary consequences in several solitary and interactive situations under acute stress. Our study follows the tradition of behavioral and experimental economics in selecting the experimental situations and incorporates elements from medical and psychological research in the way stress is induced and measured. It relies on a larger sample, with 192 volunteers, than previous studies to achieve higher statistical power. The main conclusion, drawn from binary comparisons between the treatment and reference groups, is that acute stress does not have a significant impact on cognitive skills, strategic sophistication, risk attitudes, altruism, cooperativeness, or nastiness. Regression analysis, controlling for psycho-social characteristics, corroborates these findings, while also suggesting that acute stress significantly decreases men’s risk aversion (as measured by a lottery-choice risk-elicitation task).
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Burakov, Dmitry. « Retesting the institutional memory hypothesis : An experimental study ». Panoeconomicus 65, no 4 (2018) : 441–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/pan160105003b.
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In this article, we set ourselves a task to test institutional memory hypothesis as a core of endogenous credit cycles. According to this hypothesis, risks taken by creditors depend largely on availability heuristic and experience of loan officers. To assess validity of this hypothesis we construct and estimate a simple VAR model. The data for this model is acquired from results of an experimental study (lasted for 70 rounds), the purpose of which is to identify behavioral patterns of participants while meeting demand for credit, specifics of subjectively weighted assessment of credit risk, based on shock approach. The results of the study allow confirming institutional memory hypothesis. After initial shock of bad debts, number of periods to recover willingness to accept risk has increased by 39%, which supports the hypothesis of availability heuristic?s influence. However, with improvement of loan portfolio?s quality, willingness to take risk is restoring. In addition, we managed to confirm existence of risk?s underestimation and overestimation periods in an experimental manner.
Thèses sur le sujet "Behavioral economics, experimental economics, risk-taking"
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Spadoni, Lorenzo. « Essays on risk-taking behaviors : An experimental analysis ». Doctoral thesis, Università di Siena, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/11365/1093572.
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The effect of competition on
risk-taking in contests (with Jan Potters)
We investigate, theoretically and experimentally, the effect of competition on risktaking
in a contest in which players only decide on the level of risk they wish to take.
Taking more risk implies a chance of a higher performance, but also implies a higher
chance of failure. We vary the level of competition in two ways: by varying the number
of players (2 players versus 8 players), and by varying the sensitivity of the contest to
differences in performance (lottery contest versus all-pay auction). Our results show
that there is a significant interaction effect between the two treatments, suggesting that
players are particularly prone to take more risks if both the number of players and the
sensitivity to performance are higher.
***************************************************************************************************
Dual-process cognition of risk-taking
decisions: an online experiment
In this study, we experimentally investigate the role of the mode of cognition on risk
taking. In an online experiment, we exogenously manipulate the mode of cognition by
means of a motivation treatment, where subjects are required to motivate their choice
and, hence, are more likely to make a choice under deliberation.
Our results show a significant effect of the motivation treatment on risk-taking, suggesting
that subjects are more prone to take risk when deliberation is active. This effect
is stronger and more significant if we consider only subjects who have no probabilistic
understanding of the decision problem. Based on our experimental findings, we argue
that deliberation and comprehension are substitutes when individuals make decisions
involving risk.
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The mode of cognition mediates the
relationship between personality
traits and risk-taking: an online
experiment
In this study, we experimentally investigate how the mode of cognition mediates the
relation between personality traits and risk taking. In an online experiment, the mode
of cognition is exogenously manipulated by asking subjects to motivate their choice in
order to invoke more deliberative decisions.
Although the evidence is not particularly strong, it appears to be suggestive for a role
of the mode of cognition in the relation between personality traits and risk-taking behaviors.
We find that higher levels of Conscientiousness, Neuroticism and Openness to
Experience are associated with a lower degree of risk-taking in the control treatment,
and that, in the treatment with motivation, Agreeableness has a qualitatively similar
association. Moreover, our experimental results show that risk taking behaviors are
more affected by traits of personality when decisions are taken under a more intuitive
mode of cognition.
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Grimm, Stefan [Verfasser], et Martin [Akademischer Betreuer] Kocher. « A behavioral economics approach to team performance, risk taking, and discrimination : experimental evidence / Stefan Grimm ; Betreuer : Martin Kocher ». München : Universitätsbibliothek der Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, 2018. http://d-nb.info/1164968602/34.
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Parekh, Rishabh. « Aggregated Versus Disaggregated Forward Looking Information : Effects on Risk Taking ». Scholarship @ Claremont, 2012. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/398.
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In previous research, aggregation of returns has been found as a way to counteract the risk averse behavior that is the result of investors' myopia. This paper expands the study of aggregation by analyzing its effect on forward looking probabilities. Namely, through the disaggregation of future information, subjects become myopic and trade with varying risk preferences. In an experimental market, subjects trading securities with disaggregated forward looking information are found to 'buy high and sell low', while subjects trading the same securities, but with aggregated information, trade with more consistent risk preferences.
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Wallace, Björn. « Genes, History and Economics ». Doctoral thesis, Handelshögskolan i Stockholm, Institutionen för Nationalekonomi, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hhs:diva-2215.
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1. Introduction This dissertation consists of six chapters that span a very diverse set of topics. Yet, it has two unifying themes, economics and biology, that tie it together. The first four chapters present the principal findings from a project that was initiated jointly with David Cesarini and Magnus Johannesson, and that applies the twin method from behavioral genetics to economics. The last two chapters instead use a simple regression framework and evidence from biological anthropology to investigate recent claims regarding the effects of child bearing and past slave trades. 2. Genes and economics There is a small, but rapidly growing, literature studying the genetic and environmental origins of economic behavior and outcomes (Bowles et al., 2005; Beauchamp et al., 2011). Until recently, this literature focused exclusively on outcomes, and in particular income. In chapters 1-4 we instead focus on economic behavior and decision-making. Previous behavioral genetic work outside the domains of economics has changed the way that we think about a number of behavioral traits. In this literature it is typically found that i) variation is heritable ii) genetic factors are more important than family environment iii) a large fraction of variation cannot be explained by neither genes nor family environment (Turkheimer, 2000; Plomin et al., 2009). However, compared to many other disciplines, and psychology in particular, economics is lagging behind. In fact, as recently as 2009 the leading text book in behavioral genetics described economics as "still essentially untouched by genetic research" (Plomin et al., 2009, p. 353). Hopefully, the chapters in this dissertation can help to improve on this somewhat unsatisfactory state of the art. Chapters 1 and 2 study economic decision-making in the laboratory using the twin method. More specifically, we study the ultimatum and dictator games alongside risky gambles, using same-sex twin pairs as our subject pool. Given a few additional assumptions, the fact that identical twins have, in expectation, a twice as high coefficient of genetic relatedness as fraternal twins implies that we can study the genetic and environmental contributions to variation in behavior by studying twin correlations in observed choices. Chapters 3 and 4 apply the same method to actual portfolio choices associated with a far-reaching pension reform, as well as to a set of standard behavioral anomalies. Taken together, these four chapters provide strong evidence in favor of the hypothesis that genes influence economic decision-making. Thus, economic behavior does not appear to be much different from other types of behavior. 3. Economics and history The last two chapters of the dissertation turn to the past, rather than genes, in an effort to evaluate recent findings regarding two important welfare outcomes. In chapter 5 we investigate Nunn’s (2008) claim that past slave trades had a negative impact on current economic performance in Africa. By extending the sample period back in time we demonstrate that this relationship was not significant in 1960. In addition, by applying Nunn’s method to an episode of large scale slave raiding in Italy, we demonstrate that there exists a similar negative relationship across Italian regions, although it becomes insignificant when geographical controls are included. Intriguingly, going back to 1960, the coefficient on slave raids for Italy also has a similar time trend to that for Africa. Taking these facts, and our reading of the historical and anthropological literature, which is much different from that of Nunn, into account we do not find much support for the hypothesis that the African slave trades had a negative impact on current economic performance. Finally, chapter 6 investigates the large and negative relationship between giving birth to a son, rather than a daughter, and maternal longevity that was documented in a Sami hunter-gatherer population from Finland (Helle et al., 2002). Using a substantially larger sample of pre-industrial Swedish Sami we find no evidence in favor of such a relationship. 4. Brasklapp Five of the chapters in this dissertation (Ch. 1-4 & 6) are slightly altered versions of previously published papers (Wallace et al., 2007; Cesarini et al., 2009 a, b; 2010; 2011). Unfortunately, the fact that earlier versions of the chapters were prepared as separate articles for five different journals means that they can at times appear both repetitive, and in terms of notation and formatting, somewhat inconsistent. I apologize to the reader for these inconveniences.Diss. Stockholm : Stockholm School of Economics, 2011. Introduction together with 6 papers
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Martinez-Correa, Jimmy. « Decisions under Risk, Uncertainty and Ambiguity : Theory and Experiments ». Digital Archive @ GSU, 2012. http://digitalarchive.gsu.edu/rmi_diss/29.
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I combine theory, experiments and econometrics to undertake the task of disentangling the subtleties and implications of the distinction between risk, uncertainty and ambiguity. One general conclusion is that the elements of this methodological trilogy are not equally advanced. For example, new experimental tools must be developed to adequately test the predictions of theory. My dissertation is an example of this dynamic between theoretical and applied economics.
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Khachatryan, Karen. « Biased beliefs and heterogeneous preferences : essays in behavioral economics ». Doctoral thesis, Handelshögskolan i Stockholm, Institutionen för Nationalekonomi, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hhs:diva-1867.
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This dissertation is a collection of essays (chapters) on behavioral economics. Behavioral economics—arguably one of the most influential innovations in economics over the last 20 years—is a research paradigm introducing psychologically more realistic assumptions into economics. A common theme throughout the dissertation is the focus on either biased beliefs, or heterogeneous preferences, or both. The first chapter serves as an introduction to some themes in behavioral economics and its implications for market outcomes in industrial organization settings. The next two chapters are theoretical papers on entrepreneurial and managerial overconfidence that can also be thought of as contributions to this newly emerging field of behavioral industrial organization. The last chapter is an empirical contribution on gender differences in preferences and economic behavior at a young age.Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2011
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Smith, Aaron P. « The Balloon Analogue Risk Task and Behavioral Correlates in Pigeons ». UKnowledge, 2015. http://uknowledge.uky.edu/psychology_etds/81.
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Individuals experience risk ubiquitously, but measuring risk taking is difficult. The balloon analogue risk task (BART) was developed in order to assess risk taking through having subjects press a key that accrues reward but also risk losing all reward with each press. In humans, greater responding in this task is associated with other maladaptive risk taking behaviors. The present research modeled this relationship in pigeons due to their previously shown propensity towards risk taking behavior. Experiment 1 used an unsignaled balloon task in which losing could only occur after 5 pecks. Results showed below optimal performance with greater pecks associated with faster acquisition of risk taking in the suboptimal choice task and evidence of modulation by delay discounting measures. Experiment 2 signaled the number of pecks with colors and tested multiple hoppers as a reinforcement modality to increase performance. Results showed only signaling the number of pecks improved performance and was related to performance in the high risk BART task. Both the low and high risk variants were associated with slower suboptimal choice acquisition and again had evidence of modulation by delay discounting measures. Potential shared underlying mechanisms are discussed.
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Sra, Sana. « Circadian Variations and Risky Decision Making ». Scholarship @ Claremont, 2019. https://scholarship.claremont.edu/scripps_theses/1291.
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Over the past decades, decision making under risk has garnered a great amount of attention both in the field of economics and psychology. Although state-dependent variabilities of risk taking are well-documented, little is known about the effects of a person’s preferred time of day, or chronotype, in risky decision making. Under circumstances of circadian mismatch (e.g., when an “early bird” makes decisions in the evening), research suggests that decision making may reflect a greater reliance on heuristics, such as using stereotypes in social judgments. However, the effects of circadian mismatch on heuristics in risky decision making are relatively unexplored. This paper looks into the effects of circadian mismatch on the reflection effect: a behavioral bias in financial decision making, wherein individuals are risk averse when facing potential gains, and risk seeking when facing potential losses. Participants will be randomly assigned to their circadian matched or circadian mismatched conditions and will play a series of financial gambling tasks with real monetary incentives. This study predicts that the reflection effect will be exacerbated in circadian mismatched individuals as compared to matched participants. Exploring such an effect could have real-world implications on decision making under risk by providing critical knowledge about the effects of time of day on our susceptibility to behavioral biases. It could therefore point to the existence of a more optimal time of day to engage in such critical decision making.
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Humphrey, Steven James. « The economics and psychology of decision making under risk and uncertainty : an experimental investigation and integrating behavioural framework ». Thesis, University of East Anglia, 1996. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.338218.
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Hopfensitz, Astrid. « The role of affect in reciprocity and risk taking : experimental studies of economic behavior / ». [S.l. : Amsterdam : s.n.] ; Universiteit van Amsterdam [Host], 2006. http://dare.uva.nl/document/19582.
Texte intégralLivres sur le sujet "Behavioral economics, experimental economics, risk-taking"
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Munier, Bertrand, Mark J. Machina, Mohammed Abdellaoui et R. Duncan Luce. Uncertainty and Risk : Mental, Formal, Experimental Representations. Springer, 2010.
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(Editor), Mohammed Abdellaoui, R. Duncan Luce (Editor), Mark J. Machina (Editor) et Bertrand Munier (Editor), dir. Uncertainty and Risk : Mental, Formal, Experimental Representations (Theory and Decision Library C). Springer, 2007.
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Bramoullé, Yann, Andrea Galeotti et Brian W. Rogers, dir. The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Networks. Oxford University Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199948277.001.0001.
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This handbook represents the frontier of research into the economics of networks: how and why they form, how they influence behavior, how they help govern outcomes in an interactive world, and how they shape collective decision making, opinion formation, and diffusion dynamics. From a methodological perspective, the authors devote attention to theory, field experiments, laboratory experiments, and econometrics. Theoretical work in network formation, games played on networks, repeated games, and the interaction between linking and behavior are synthesized. A number of chapters are devoted to studying social processes mediated by networks. Topics here include opinion formation, diffusion of information and disease, and learning. There are also chapters devoted to financial contagion and systemic risk. Next, the handbook includes a section that discusses communities more generally, with applications including social trust, favor exchange, and social collateral; the importance of communities for migration patterns, and the role that networks and communities play in the labor market. A prominent role of networks, from an economic perspective, is that they mediate trade. Several chapters cover bilateral trade in networks, strategic intermediation, and the role of networks in international trade. The handbook also discusses the role of networks for organizations. One chapter discusses the role of networks for the performance of organizations, while two other chapters discuss managing networks of consumers and pricing in the presence of network-based spillovers. Finally, the handbook covers the Internet as a network, with attention to the issue of net neutrality.
Chapitres de livres sur le sujet "Behavioral economics, experimental economics, risk-taking"
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Tanaka, Tomomi, Colin F. Camerer et Quang Nguyen. « Risk and Time Preferences : Linking Experimental and Household Survey Data from Vietnam ». Dans Behavioral Economics of Preferences, Choices, and Happiness, 3–25. Tokyo : Springer Japan, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-55402-8_1.
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Doszyń, Mariusz. « Propensity to Risk and the Prospect Theory ». Dans Problems, Methods and Tools in Experimental and Behavioral Economics, 47–60. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-99187-0_4.
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Sasaki, Shunichiro, Shiyu Xie, Fumio Ohtake, Jie Qin et Yoshiro Tsutsui. « Experiments on Risk Attitude : The Case of Chinese Students ». Dans Behavioral Economics of Preferences, Choices, and Happiness, 123–50. Tokyo : Springer Japan, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-55402-8_6.
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D’Alonzo, Luca, M. Chiara Leva, Edgardo Bucciarelli et Nicola Mattoscio. « Evaluating the Behavioural Impact of Risk Exposure and Quality of Services Attributes on Preferences of Airline Customers : A Choice Behaviour Experiment ». Dans Decision Economics : Minds, Machines, and their Society, 80–91. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-75583-6_8.
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« Behavioral Economics and Climate Change Adaptation : Insights from Experimental Economics on the Role of Risk and Time Preferences ». Dans The WSPC Reference on Natural Resources and Environmental Policy in the Era of Global Change, sous la direction de Maria Bernedo et Paul J. Ferraro, 151–77. WORLD SCIENTIFIC, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/9789813208186_0007.
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Galizzi, Matteo M., Glenn W. Harrison et Marisa Miraldo. « Experimental Methods and Behavioral Insights in Health Economics : Estimating Risk and Time Preferences in Health ». Dans Health Econometrics, 1–21. Emerald Publishing Limited, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/s0573-855520180000294001.
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Kertzer, Joshua D. « Experimental Microfoundations for Resolve : I ». Dans Resolve in International Politics. Princeton University Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.23943/princeton/9780691171609.003.0003.
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This chapter examines individual-level microfoundations of resolve in the context of public opinion using a novel laboratory experiment that models both the selection into, and duration of support for, military interventions. The experiment manipulates situational features of the military intervention while measuring dispositional variables using techniques employed in behavioral economics and social psychology. The chapter first explains the rationale for using public opinion as the domain in which to construct a theory of resolve before discussing the study's experimental design. It then presents the experiment's findings and their implications for the study of public opinion, and for theories of resolve more generally. The results show that time and risk preferences can help account for variations in sensitivity to the costs of war: more patient respondents are less sensitive to casualties while more risk-averse respondents are more sensitive to the human costs of fighting as well as the reputational costs of backing down.
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Strang, Kenneth David, et Narasimha Rao Vajjhala. « Impact of Socialized Uncertainty on Group Decision Making ». Dans Gender Economics, 547–62. IGI Global, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-5225-7510-8.ch026.
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Many stakeholders in society are concerned about the effectiveness of decision making behavior for our future generation of leaders. Risk taking behavior has been studied in the context of cultural factors (including gender) or decision making but rarely have both of these dimensions been examined simultaneously especially with emerging business leaders. Decision making behavior has not been studied at the group level of analysis in the context of socialized culture using samples of young emerging executives. Therefore, the authors conducted a controlled experiment with senior university students to test the impact of risk taking culture and gender on group decision making behavior in a complex project. In their experiment gender did not impact decision making behavior but the socialized uncertainty was a statistically significant casual factor. The authors conducted a controlled experiment with senior university students to test the impact of risk taking culture and gender on group decision making behavior in a complex project. Although their results agreed with the literature, one finding was completely opposite from their hypothesis. In the authors' experiment, the participant's gender did not impact decision making behavior but the socialized uncertainty factor was statistically significant in the logistic regression models.
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Engel, Christoph. « The Proper Scope of Behavioural Law and Economics ». Dans Theories of Choice, 19–36. Oxford University Press, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198863175.003.0002.
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Behavioural law and economics applies the conceptual tools of behavioural economics to the analysis of legal problems and legal intervention. These models, and the experiments to test them, assume an institution-free state of nature. In modern societies, the law’s subjects never see this state of nature. However, a rich arrangement of informal and formal institutions creates generalised trust. If individuals are sufficiently confident that nothing too detrimental will happen, they are freed up to interact with strangers as if they were in a state of nature. This willingness dramatically reduces transaction cost and enables division of labour. If generalised trust can be assumed, simple economic models are appropriate, but they must be behavioural, since otherwise individuals would not want to run the risk of interaction.
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« Experimental study on evacuation behavior of crowds in emergency situation ». Dans Emerging Economies, Risk and Development, and Intelligent Technology, 473–78. CRC Press, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1201/b18509-64.
Texte intégralActes de conférences sur le sujet "Behavioral economics, experimental economics, risk-taking"
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Arezoomand, Mojtaba, et Jesse Austin-Breneman. « An Experimental Study of Feedback and Risk in Engineering Decision-Making ». Dans ASME 2017 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc2017-68336.
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Effectively managing risk is crucial to successful engineering design. Formal methods offer strategies for making decisions under uncertainty and mitigating risk. However, insights from other fields such as cognitive science and behavioral economics suggest that decision-makers may exhibit behaviors in response to feedback which can undermine these strategies. This study presents results from an experiment in which participants were tasked with selecting a design factor of safety for four design prompts under objective risk conditions. Participants were randomly assigned to receive only negative or positive feedback after each decision. Results suggest that the type of feedback influenced the choice of factor of safety even though subjects were provided with the exact benefits and probabilities of all possible outcomes. This experiment suggests further study of the mechanisms by which engineering decision-makers incorporate feedback is necessary.
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Meckler, Milton, et Amip J. Shah. « Use of Thermodynamics, Engineering Economics and Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Evaluating Climate Change Decisions ». Dans ASME 2009 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition. ASMEDC, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/imece2009-10182.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Climate change is often considered in terms of its macroscale implications. For example, many governments and non-governmental organizations are engaged in the development of policy frameworks that could influence different societal actions and behavioral scenarios. But such macroscale policy decisions may also significantly impact the localized design of products and services in different business ecosystems. Unfortunately, products and services are generally designed only taking into account local influences. An approach that ties macroscale frameworks to localized product- or system-level design metrics is lacking. For example, the cost of upgrading the entire U.S. electrical system has been estimated to be on the order of $200 billion, and recent U.S. policy discussions in the area outline options such as “smart” grid upgrades, distributed and/or on-site renewable energy systems including solar and wind energy, infrastructural support for plug-in of electric and hybrid vehicles etc. But most existing electricity generation and thermal performance models of power generating stations or cogeneration plants fail to provide any indication of the environmental impacts associated with distributing electricity from generator to point-of-use. It is thus not intuitive how the direction of localized plant or system design should be altered given the different macro-level initiatives. This paper attempts to fill this gap by exploring a methodology that combines engineering economics, probabilistic risk assessment, and thermodynamic (2nd Law) analysis to evaluate different policy choices. Specifically, a framework that could allow quick estimation of the comparative consumption, operational power requirements, relative thermal performance and environmental footprint associated with different proposals on upgrading the grid is developed. The approach is demonstrated in the context of a representative segment of a hypothetical electrical grid distribution system located between two electric power generating stations (EPGS) facing overload as additional customer demands are projected to be integrated with renewable sources in the near-term future.
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Midlick, Mark J., et Jeremy M. Gernand. « Economic Viability vs. Risk Mitigation : An Experimental Investigation of Project Budget Investment Decisions in Engineering Students ». Dans ASME 2022 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/imece2022-95484.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Abstract In the course of their profession, engineers must often consider not just the technical efficacy of their designs but also how their design decisions influence and are influenced by nontechnical factors. These non-technical factors can include the stated or implicit values of a company culture, the real and/or perceived social pressures from management, and individual perceptions about one’s own ethical and professional duties and responsibilities. In the field of Psychology there is a large body of research relating the internal, mental states of individuals to their external behaviors and choices. However, at this time there has been little research into how different psychological states can affect the outcome of specific engineering design decision making by individuals or teams. This study’s aim was to begin this research by conducting an experiment to simulate a common constraint in the profession of engineering: allocating a design budget to ensure the project outcome is both profitable and safe. Specifically, this study wanted to measure how the personality trait agreeableness in conjunction with a social primer consisting of a written scenario description conveying the aims of the exercise and the responsibilities of engineers related to an engineering student’s decision to favor either profit or safety in a hypothetical design scenario. A total of 141 undergraduate engineering students were recruited to participate in this experiment, which consisted of a computer-based survey and decision-making activity with a total duration of approximately 10 minutes. Results indicated that agreeableness did not relate to primer adherence in a statistically significant way; however participant beliefs about the intention of the experiment did have a statistically significant relationship with their final allocation decisions, a finding that may have implications for the management of engineering design teams, if this research can be replicated in experienced professionally practicing engineers. While not the objective of the experiment, the data show that when participants were given the opportunity to revise their selections, they most commonly revised their allocations away from profit and towards more investment in safety. Whether this is a result of simply a second attempt at the same decision with further reflection or the result of the consideration of information considered after the initial allocation remains to be determined in future research. The results of this study should serve not as conclusive evidence on the effects of trait agreeableness in engineering risk-related decision making but rather as an initial step, or model for how to investigate a potentially valuable, interdisciplinary field of inquiry. Insights from this experiment do hold useful lessons for the next phase of this research.
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Öztopçu, Aslı. « The Role of Emotions in Economic Decision Making ». Dans International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c11.02259.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Decision making points out to the consequences of past or future behaviors. An individual has to make decisions on all subjects throughout his life. An important part of these decisions are economic decisions. Individuals make decisions such as renting, buying, buying new goods, migrating, changing jobs, making investments, enterprise, choosing holidays, evaluating savings. Non-rational decisions are observed although individuals should make rational decision, according to mainstream economics.
In this study, the effects of the emotions that form the basis of psychology, such as time, option constraint, opportunities, risk taking, risk aversion, procrastination, rush, or uncertainty, inconsistency, intuitive movement, cognitive error in the decision-making process of individuals are discussed. For this purpose, the characteristics of decision-making process, individual effects of cognitive of emotions, individual decision making theorems in economic theory and behavioral economics literature are mentioned. It is thought that the role of emotions that shape behaviors should be known in the regulation of economic life that is determined according to human behavior.
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Gernand, Jeremy M. « A Set of Preliminary Model Experiments for Studying Engineering Student Biases in the Assessment and Prioritization of Risks ». Dans ASME 2018 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/imece2018-87888.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Engineering decisions that have the greatest effect on worker and public safety occur early in the design process. During these decisions, engineers rely on their experience and intuition to estimate the severity and likelihood of undesired future events like failures, equipment damage, injuries, or environmental harm. These initial estimates can then form the basis of investment of limited project resources in mitigating those risks. Behavioral economics suggests that most people make significant and predictable errors when considering high consequence, low probability events. These biases have not previously been studied quantitatively in the context of engineering decisions, however. This paper describes preliminary results from a set of computerized experiments with engineering students estimating, prioritizing, and making design decisions related to risk. The undergraduate students included in this experiment were more likely to underestimate than overestimate the risk of failure. They were also more optimistic of the effects of efforts to mitigate risk than the evidence suggested. These results suggest that considerably more effort is needed to understand the characteristics and qualities of these biases in risk estimation, and understand what kinds of intervention might best ameliorate these biases and enable engineers to more effectively identify and manage the risks of technology.
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Födisch, Hendrik, Leena Nurmi, Rafael E. Hincapie R., Ante Borovina, Sirkku Hanski, Torsten Clemens et Alyssia Janczak. « Improving Alkali Polymer Flooding Economics by Capitalizing on Polymer Solution Property Evolution at High pH ». Dans SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition. SPE, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/210043-ms.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Abstract Alkali Polymer (AP) flooding is a promising Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) method to increase oil recovery from reactive oils. It is essential to carefully select the alkali and polymer type and concentration to optimize incremental oil recovery. In addition to the conventional laboratory tests for polymer flooding, the effects of the high pH on the polymer and its evolving properties over time need to be investigated. Consideration of near-wellbore and reservoir effects is a key in designing the process. We are showing how understanding and taking advantage of the polymer performance in a high pH environment allows to reduce costs, increase injectivity and incremental oil recovery for AP projects. The polymer performance was evaluated for AP flooding of the Matzen field (Austria). Evaluations included changes in polymer rheology during aging at high pH conditions, phase behavior tests, and single/two-phase core floods with aged and non-aged polymer solutions. In addition, adsorption of the aged polymer and interfacial tension was measured. The aging was studied in anaerobic conditions at reservoir temperature and through an accelerated method at elevated temperature. The degree of polymer hydrolysis over time was determined via NMR and linked to viscosity performance. The AP conditions in the Matzen AP flooding project (pH > 10) lead to an increased initial rate of polymer hydrolysis of the tested HPAM by a factor of 100 compared to hydrolysis at a neutral pH level. This resulted in a rapid increase in polymer solution viscosity of 160 % compared with initial conditions within days at reservoir temperature of 49 °C, after which the increase leveled off. Accelerated aging experiments at higher temperature predict long-term stability of the increased viscosity level for several years. Single-phase injection test in representative core confirmed the performance of the aged solution compared to a non-aged solution at the same polymer concentration. The retention of polymers is reduced in AP conditions compared with traditional neutral pH conditions. Two-phase core flood tests showed the increased polymer viscosity at reservoir conditions. The displacement efficiency of the aged and non-aged polymer solution was similar confirming the potential for cost savings using lower polymer concentration and making use of the increased polymer viscosity owing to hydrolysis. The results show that the design of alkali polymer projects needs to take the changing polymer rheology with time into account. The costs of alkali polymer projects can be reduced owing to the lower required polymer concentrations for the same displacement efficiency and reduced retention of polymer. An efficient design of alkali polymer projects takes good injectivity of non-aged polymers and the aging of the polymer solutions in alkali into account.
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Swanson, David, et Jeffrey T. Fong. « A High-Risk High-Reward Approach to Public-Private Collaborative Research in Predictive Modeling and Control of Complex Systems ». Dans ASME 2011 Pressure Vessels and Piping Conference. ASMEDC, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/pvp2011-57712.
Texte intégralRésumé :
In this paper, we propose an approach to public-private collaborative research in predictive modeling and control of complex engineered systems. Society depends intimately on complex systems. The behavior of a simple system can be modeled and the model can be validated by experimental observations, if the behavior of each component and its interface with other components are known and well-defined. In contrast, a complex system cannot be modeled accurately enough to effectively predict and control the behaviors of the overall system. One example of an engineered complex system network (CSN) is the electricity power grid, which encompasses power generation, transmission, distribution, and consumption, as one giant system that includes electric generators, transformers, substation switchyards, transmission lines, consumer devices, and a multitude of new evolving components. The electricity power grid depends on other complex systems, e.g., climate systems that govern wind current for wind turbines, river water levels for thermoelectric cooling, and economic systems for service demand, pricing, revenue collection, and for business capital supply. Operational robustness, reliability, and efficiency of CSN’s are in the interest of all the subsystem owners, end users, and the public welfare of the nation. Conundrum? Who is responsible for the overall CSN’s operational robustness, reliability and efficiency, when so many parts of the system reside in so many different hands with the ultimate beneficiaries of the systems being the general public? Which entities are responsible for funding critical high-risk research, whose ultimate benefits do not reside with any one subset of stakeholders? These questions characterize the challenge of sourcing R&D funds that can be focused on modeling, understanding, and management of CSNs in general. To address such needs for innovative collaborative research, Congress established the Technology Innovation Program (TIP) at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) as part of the 2007 America COMPETES Act. Its purpose is to “assist United States businesses and institutions of higher education or other organizations, such as national laboratories and nonprofit research institutions, to support, promote, and accelerate innovation in the United States through high-risk, high-reward research in areas of critical national need.” Ongoing efforts by TIP to identify and qualify societal challenges in the critical national need area of Complex System Networks are introduced.
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Jing, Jiaqiang, Cheng Wu, Xiaoshuang Chen, Junwen Chen, Ping Lu et Anlin Hu. « Experimental Study of Compositional Factor on Asphaltene Deposition for Heavy Crude Oil Dilution in Offshore Production and Transportation ». Dans ASME 2016 35th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2016-54021.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Heavy oil dilution has been widely used in the oil production and transportation due to its high efficiency in viscosity and drag reduction, and great convenience in operation. The composition of the heavy oil will change while being mixed with some diluents, thus the stability of the asphaltene in the heavy oil might be destroyed, which leads to a tremendous threat to the safe and economic operation of the production and transportation system. The asphaltene contents of eight onshore and offshore oil samples were measured using n-heptane and toluene, then the asphaltene deposition onset points of the oils diluted with n-alkanes (n-C7) were evaluated using viscosity methods. The reliability of the asphaltene deposition predicted by the refractive index of the diluted oils was verified, and meanwhile the impacts of n-C5, n-C7 and n-C8 on the asphaltene precipitation behavior were measured and analyzed. And then the status of the asphaltene deposition, suspending particle distribution and adhesion of the heavy oil diluted with diesel in the stainless wire mesh located in the visible loop pipe layout was investigated. The studied results demonstrate that the asphaltene deposition onset point has no direct relation to its content, and those of the eight diluted oils ranged from 15% to 30% at 70 °C. The onset point prediction method was verified to be reliable because it is based on that the critical solubility parameter and the square root of the diluent molar volume in the Asphaltene-Instability-Trend (ASIST) curve present a good linear relation. The relationship between the refractive index of the diluted oil and its asphaltene deposition onset point depends on the light oil type, and the smaller its carbon number, the more serious the asphaltene deposition in its diluted oil. The reasonable amount of a light oil blended with a heavy oil should well consider the light oil source, its economy and the asphaltene deposition risk at the same time.
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Gupta, Sahil, Eugene Saltanov et Igor Pioro. « Uses of Supercritical Fluids and Their Characteristics Within Deteriorated Heat Transfer Region ». Dans 2014 22nd International Conference on Nuclear Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/icone22-30274.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Taking into account the expected increase in global energy demands and increasing climate change issues there is a pressing need to develop new environmentally sustainable energy systems. Nuclear energy will play a big part in being part of the energy mix since it offers a relatively clean, safe and reliable source of energy. However, opportunities for building new generation nuclear systems will depend on their economic and safety attractiveness as well as flexibility in design to adapt to different countries and situational needs. Keeping these objectives in mind, a framework for international cooperation was set forth in a charter of Generation IV International Forum (GIF, 2002). The main design goals for the Generation IV nuclear system concept were to improve economic gains, enhance safety, extend sustainability, and strengthen proliferation resistance. To achieve high thermal efficiencies of up to 45–50%, the use of SuperCritical Fluids (SCFs) as working fluids in heat transfer cycles is proposed. An important step towards development of SCF applications in novel Generation IV Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) designs and in other industries; is to understand the thermal hydraulic behavior and prediction of Heat Transfer Coefficients (HTCs) at supercritical (SC) conditions. Heat transfer under SC turbulent conditions is generally very complex and is extremely sensitive to the test geometry and operational flow parameters. Detailed sets of experiments have been conducted around the world in tubes and other geometries with SCFs to study the basics of heat transfer. By variation of operational parameters and test geometries, fundamental heat transfer data sets are collected that will help in our understanding of SC heat transfer phenomena. Applications for SCFs are not limited to power industry; recent advancements have indicated the use of SCFs in a much wider range of applications due to its unique and attractive heat transfer characteristics. In this paper, proposed uses of SCFs are presented and basic concept of DHT within SCFs is analyzed.
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Mascari, Fulvio, Giuseppe Vella et Brian G. Woods. « TRACE Code Analyses for the IAEA ICSP on “Integral PWR Design Natural Circulation Flow Stability and Thermo-Hydraulic Coupling of Containment and Primary System During Accidents” ». Dans ASME 2011 Small Modular Reactors Symposium. ASMEDC, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/smr2011-6594.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Considering the world energy demand increase in order to fulfill an environmental and economic sustainability, the energy policy of each country has to diversify the sources of energy and use stable, safe energy production option able of producing electricity in a clean way contributing in cutting the CO2 emission. In the framework of the sustainable development, today the use of advanced nuclear power plant, have an important role in the environmental and economic sustainability of country energy strategy. In the last 20 years, in fact, the international community, taking into account the operational experience of the nuclear reactors, starts the development of new advanced reactor designs considering also the use of natural circulation for the cooling of the core in normal and transient conditions. In this framework, Oregon State University (OSU) has constructed, under a U.S. Department of Energy grant, a system level test facility to examine natural circulation phenomena characterizing the Multi-Application Small Light Water Reactor (MASLWR) design, a small modular integral pressurized light water reactor relying on natural circulation during both steady state and transient operation. It includes an integrated helical coil steam generator as well. Starting from an experimental campaign in support of the MASLWR concept design verification, the planned work, will be not only to specifically investigate the concept design further but also advance the broad understanding of integral natural circulation reactor plants and accompanying passive safety features as well. An IAEA International Collaborative Standard Problem (ICSP) on “Integral PWR Design Natural Circulation Flow Stability and Thermo-hydraulic Coupling of Containment and Primary System During Accidents” is hosting at OSU and the experimental data will be developed at the OSU-MASLWR facility. The purpose of this IAEA ICSP is to provide experimental data on single/two-phase flow instability phenomena under natural circulation conditions and coupled containment/reactor vessel behavior in integral-type light water reactors. These data can be used to assess thermal hydraulic codes for reactor system design and analysis as well. The first planned test investigates a stepwise reduction in the primary mass inventory of the facility while operating at reduced power (decay power). The second planned test, investigates a loss of feed water transient with subsequent primary blowdown due to automatic depressurization system actuation and long term cooling phase. The target of this paper is to contribute to the thermal hydraulic analysis of the expected phenomena of these transients on the basis of the TRACE V5 Patch 01 calculated data developed during the double-blind phase of the ICSP.
Rapports d'organisations sur le sujet "Behavioral economics, experimental economics, risk-taking"
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Yuval, Boaz, et Todd E. Shelly. Lek Behavior of Mediterranean Fruit Flies : An Experimental Analysis. United States Department of Agriculture, juillet 2000. http://dx.doi.org/10.32747/2000.7575272.bard.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata (Diptera: Tephritidae), is a ubiquitous pest of fruit trees, causing significant economic damage both in the U.S. and in Israel. Control efforts in the future will rely heavily on the sterile insect technique (SIT). Success of such operations hinges on the competitive ability of released males. The mating system of the medfly is based on leks. These are aggregations of sexually signaling males that attract females (who then select and copulate a courting male). A major component of male competitiveness is their ability to join existing leks or establish leks that are attractive to wild females. Accordingly, we identified leks and the behaviors associated with them as critical for the success of SIT operations. The objectives of this proposal were to determine 1. what makes a good lek site, 2. what are the energetic costs of lekking, 3. how females choose leks, and finally 4. whether the copulatory success of sterile males may be manipulated by particular pre-release diets and judicious spatial dispersal. We established that males choose lek sites according to their spatial location and penological status, that they avoid predators, and within the lek tree choose the perch that affords a compromise between optimal signalling, micro-climatic conditions and predation risk (Kaspi & Yuval 1999 a&b; Field et al 2000; Kaspi & Yuval submitted). We were able to show that leks are exclusive, and that only males with adequate protein and carbohydrate reserves can participate (Yuval et al 1998; Kaspi et al 2000; Shelly et al 2000). We determined that females prefer leks formed by protein fed, sexually experienced males (Shelly 2000). Finally, we demonstrated that adding protein to the diet of sterile males significantly enhances their probability of participating in leks and copulating wild females (Kaspi & Yuval 2000).