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1
Bublys, Kasparas. « Diet variability in Eurasian perch (Perca fluviatilis) as a response to environmental variables along a latitudinal gradient ». Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Institutionen för biologisk grundutbildning, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-365794.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Climate change is expected to have a profound impact on freshwater fish communities, especially at higher latitudes. In this study I investigated potential effects of climate change on the niche structure of Eurasian perch (Perca fluviatilis) by looking at their diet across a latitudinal gradient and at varying light climate. Dietary niche width of Eurasian perch did not differ significantly between boreal and temperate latitudes. Additionally, no significant difference in the prevalence of specialist individuals was found along the latitudinal gradient and water transparency levels. Habitat was the main factor that significantly affected niche width and level of specialization with both being significantly higher in the littoral habitat. Taken together my results suggest that climate change might indirectly affect niche patterns by altering fish densities through changes in productivity resulting in niche and specialization variation among habitats.
2
Bledsoe, April, Danika Mosher, Mitchell Ogden, Monica Ayala, Timothy Andrew Joyner et Ingrid Luffman. « Ecological Niche Modeling and Sustainable Agroforestry : Climate Change Mitigation for Guatemalan Coffee ». Digital Commons @ East Tennessee State University, 2019. https://dc.etsu.edu/asrf/2019/schedule/70.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Coffea arabica is a species with far-reaching impacts on the global economy. Nevertheless, climate-related challenges threaten the coffee industry at its source: its growing regions. The coffee industry is a significant economic driver in Guatemala, but farmers are increasingly reporting losses in crop yield and arable land due to climate-related challenges. Ecological niche modeling (ENM) can be employed to make predictions about the current and future suitability of regions for a species by identifying significant biotic or abiotic indicators. An ENM was used to project suitable land into the future using climate change projection models known as representative concentration pathways (RCPs), for the coffee plant and a number of other species. Due to the potential of shade trees to lessen heat stress on coffee plants, common shade trees for the region were modeled. Additionally, a fungus species responsible for detrimental coffee leaf rust was modeled. Results of these models indicated potential for substantial climate-related habitat losses for the coffee plant in the coming decades. Examination of model predictions allow for greater understanding of the climate-related variables affecting the ecology of the coffee plant, and the potential risks to the industry, in a changing climate. Additionally, ENM models for coffee rust and shade trees can help Guatemalan farmers make informed decisions about farm management.
3
Bledsoe, April, Danika Mosher, Mitchell Ogden, Monica Ayala, T. Andrew Joyner Joyner et Ingrid Luffman. « Ecological Niche Modeling and Sustainable Agroforestry : Climate Change Mitigation for Guatemalan Coffee ». Digital Commons @ East Tennessee State University, 2019. https://dc.etsu.edu/asrf/2019/schedule/64.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Coffea arabica is a species with far-reaching impacts on the global economy. Nevertheless, climate-related challenges threaten the coffee industry at its source: its growing regions. The coffee industry is a significant economic driver in Guatemala, but farmers are increasingly reporting losses in crop yield and arable land due to climate-related challenges. Ecological niche modeling (ENM) can be employed to make predictions about the current and future suitability of regions for a species by identifying significant biotic or abiotic indicators. An ENM was used to project suitable land into the future using climate change projection models known as representative concentration pathways (RCPs), for the coffee plant and a number of other species. Due to the potential of shade trees to lessen heat stress on coffee plants, common shade trees for the region were modeled. Additionally, a fungus species responsible for detrimental coffee leaf rust was modeled. Results of these models indicated potential for substantial climate-related habitat losses for the coffee plant in the coming decades. Examination of model predictions allow for greater understanding of the climate-related variables affecting the ecology of the coffee plant, and the potential risks to the industry, in a changing climate. Additionally, ENM models for coffee rust and shade trees can help Guatemalan farmers make informed decisions about farm management.
4
Boucher, Florian. « Evolution de la niche climatique et de la distribution géographique des espèces végétales alpines ». Phd thesis, Université de Grenoble, 2013. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01062257.
Texte intégralRésumé :
La niche climatique des espèces joue un rôle important dans la distribution spatiale de la biodiversité mais la manière dont les niches climatiques évoluent reste encore peu connue. Ce travail vise à révéler la manière dont les niches climatiques évoluent en général, et plus précisément à déterminer comment certaines plantes se sont adaptées aux environnements alpins. En étudiant de nombreux groupes de plantes, de poissons, de mammifères et d'oiseaux, nous avons montré que les niches climatiques évoluent le plus souvent par à-coups et non pas de manière graduelle. Les niches climatiques restent en effet stables pendant des périodes de plusieurs millions d'années puis évoluent de manière extrêmement rapide avant de se stabiliser à nouveau dans une autre gamme de climat. Des simulations ont permis de montrer que les phases de relative stabilité n'étaient pas forcément causées par une sélection stabilisante sur les niches climatiques mais pouvaient également résulter de la présence de barrières géographiques qui empêchent les espèces d'expérimenter de nouveaux climats. L'étude de l'histoire des plantes du genre Androsace a révélé que les changements rapides de niches correspondaient au contraire à l'apparition de nouveaux traits, comme la forme de vie en coussin. Ce travail montre que de nombreux facteurs influencent l'évolution des niches climatiques et souligne la nécessité de tous les étudier ensemble.
5
Audusseau, Hélène. « Effect of climate and land use on niche utilization and distribution of nettle-feeding butterflies ». Doctoral thesis, Stockholms universitet, Zoologiska institutionen, 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-119719.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Anthropogenic changes in climate and land use are causing a dramatic erosion of biodiversity. To understand this erosion, and predict future transformations of biodiversity, we need to understand better species’ response to these changes at different spatial and temporal scales. Modeling studies have identified correlations between physical parameters of the environment and species’ distribution at large spatial scales. However, this does not accurately characterize the response of a specific species, since this does not account for the constraints arising from the biology of the species. This thesis shall combine knowledge on the biology of species obtained from laboratory experiments with modeling studies. This will allow us (i) to identify life history traits and biotic interactions that influence species’ adaptive potential, and hence, explain possible differences in species’ distribution, and (ii) to consider, not only the ecological but also the evolutionary aspects of species’ response to changes. This integrative approach is likely to improve our predictions on species’ population dynamic in a changing environment. I focus on a community of butterflies in Sweden (Vanessa cardui, Polygonia c-album, Aglais urticae, Aglais io, Araschnia levana) that feeds on the stinging nettle (Urtica dioica). The available knowledge on the biology of these species and their short life cycles, which allow investigations of their response to changes on a short-time scale, make them a good system to study. Among three of these species, I showed great differences in organisms’ response to variation in food nutrient content. This is a potentially important finding considering the increased use of chemical fertilizers. These differences are to a large extent explained by differences among species in their degree of host plant specialization and voltinism (paper II). Thus, life history traits determine the response of species to environmental changes, but are themselves likely to evolve in response to such changes. Climate change, for instance, may alter the phenological synchrony between plant-feeding insects and their host plants, making it necessary for the insects to evolve their host plant range in order to ensure the availability of resources during larval development (paper I & III). The biology of a species, including biotic interactions, helps to explain the observed shift in a species’ distribution and environmental niche that result from climate change. I have shown that the recent establishment of A. levana in southern Sweden has modified the niche of the resident species, A. urticae and A. io (Paper IV). Niche partitioning in this community is likely mediated by parasite-driven apparent competition.Mänsklig påverkan på klimat och markanvändning har orsakat en dramatisk förlust av biologisk mångfald. Effekten av dessa förändringar på lokal och regional nivå är dock komplex, och kräver integrativa strategier för att kunna förstå och förutsäga förändringar, på individ-, art- och samhällsnivå. Experimentella studier har utforskat arters plastiska och evolutionära respons till främst abiotiska förändringar, och observationsdata har använts för att modellera skiften i fenologi och utbredning som en konsekvens av klimatförändringar. Trots detta är det fortfarande mycket kvar att förstå för att kunna förutsäga hur miljöförändringar ska påverka arters respons på olika rumsliga och tidsliga skalor. Denna avhandling undersöker i vilken utsträckning arters specifika livshistoria och artinteraktioner kan förklara deras ekologiska och evolutionära respons på miljöförändringar. För att angripa detta har jag fokuserat på ett samhälle av fjärilar i Sverige (Vanessa cardui, Polygonia c-album, Aglais urticae, Aglais io, Araschnia levana) som alla lever på brännässla (Urtica dioica). Den tillgängliga kunskapen om dessa arters biologi samt deras korta livscykler gör det möjligt att undersöka deras svar på förändringar över korta tidsskalor, vilket gör dem till ett lämpligt studiesystem. Huvudslutsatsen från denna avhandling är att för att beskriva hur en art svarar på en förändring måste man ta hänsyn till variation i livshistorieegenskaper och artinteraktioner. Till exempel har den ökade användningen av kemiska gödningsmedel förändrat näringstillgången även i naturliga ekosystem, vilket gynnar växtarter som är kapabla att växa under höga näringsnivåer, som brännässla. Variation i växternas näringsinnehåll kommer i sin tur att påverka herbivorerna som äter av dem, och artikel II visar att skillnader mellan fjärilsarter i hur de svarar på variation i näringstillgång till stor del beror på specialiseringsgrad och voltinism (antal generationer per år). Livshistorieegenskaper avgör således hur arter kommer att svara på förändringar i klimat och markanvändning, men sådana miljöförändringar påverkar i sin tur också evolution av livshistorieegenskaperna (artikel I & III). Slutligen, förändringar i utbredning som ett resultat av klimatförändring kommer även att påverka den lokala sammansättningen av interagerande arter (resurser, predatorer, konkurrenter). Ett exempel på detta är hur den relativt nyliga koloniseringen av södra Sverige av A. levana har förändrat nischerna hos de inhemska arterna A. urticae och A. io (artikel IV).
Le réchauffement climatique et les changements d’occupation des terres d'origine anthropique provoquent une forte érosion de la biodiversité. Pour comprendre cette érosion, et prédire les transformations futures de la biodiversité, il nous faut mieux connaitre la réponse des espèces à ces changements, aux différentes échelles spatiales et temporelles. Grâce à des outils de modélisation statistique, des corrélations entre les paramètres physiques de l’environnement et la distribution des espèces à grande échelle spatiale ont été observées. Mais ceci ne suffit pas à caractériser finement la réponse d’une espèce donnée, car celle-ci dépend des caractéristiques biologiques propres de l’espèce. Cette thèse se propose donc d’associer les connaissances sur la biologie des espèces obtenues par des expériences en laboratoire à des études de modélisation. Ceci permettra (i) d’identifier des traits d’histoire de vie et les relations biotiques qui influencent le potentiel adaptatif des espèces, et donc expliquent d’éventuelles différences de répartition, et (ii) d’envisager, au-delà des aspects écologiques, la composante évolutive de cette réponse. Une telle approche intégrative est susceptible d’améliorer nos prédictions sur la dynamique des espèces dans un environnement changeant. Le système d’étude de cette thèse est une communauté de papillons en Suède (Vanessa cardui, Polygonia c-album, Aglais urticae, Aglais io, Araschnia levana), se nourrissant de l'ortie (Urtica dioica). La biologie de ces espèces est bien connue et leur cycle de vie rapide permet d’étudier leur réponse aux changements à une échelle de temps court. Chez trois de ces espèces, j’ai mis en évidence des réponses très différentes à une augmentation de la teneur en nutriments de leur nourriture, conséquence attendue de l’utilisation accrue d’engrais chimiques. Ces différences sont dans une large mesure expliquée par la gamme de plantes hôtes utilisées et le voltinisme (article II). Ces traits d'histoire de vie déterminent donc la réponse des espèces aux changements, mais sont eux-mêmes susceptibles d’évoluer. Par exemple, le réchauffement climatique modifie la synchronie entre les insectes herbivores et leurs plantes hôtes et pousse à l’évolution du régime alimentaire des papillons afin que la présence de ressources soit assurée durant le développement des larves (articles I & III). Les connaissances sur la biologie des espèces, y compris leurs interactions biotiques, permettent de comprendre les variations de leur distribution spatiale et de leur niche environnementale. Ainsi, l’établissement récent d’A. levana dans le sud de la Suède, suite au réchauffement, a modifié les niches des espèces résidentes, A. urticae et A. io (article IV).
At the time of the doctoral defense, the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 1: Manuscript. Paper 4: Manuscript.
Ekoklim
6
Serra, Díaz Josep M. « Applying correlative ecological niche models to global change studies ». Doctoral thesis, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/96302.
Texte intégralRésumé :
La distribució de les espècies ha estat objecte d’estudi per part de diverses disciplines donada la seva naturalesa multifactorial. Així, entendre veritablement la distribució de les espècies implica necessàriament un millor coneixement del funcionament de la biosfera. D’altra banda, el canvi global que està patint el nostre planeta previsiblement afectarà en gran mesura moltes espècies, variant així la distribució i composició dels ecosistemes tal i com els coneixem avui dia i implícitament dels serveis que proporcionen.
La modelització ha permès augmentar el nostre grau de comprensió sobre el sistema Terra així com de les potencials conseqüències que els canvis antropogènics poden provocar (canvi climàtic, alteració de cicles biogeoquímics, destrucció d’hàbitats, etc.). En el camp de la distribució d’espècies, els models de nínxol ecològic han estat àmpliament utilitzats per estudiar i preveure canvis en la distribució dels organismes. Aquests models es basen en la determinació de les condicions ambientals òptimes on una determinada espècie pot viure i reproduir-se (nínxol).
Tanmateix, aquests models fan ús d’aproximacions correlatives entre presències i variables ambientals actuals, fet que presenta diverses desavantatges que posen de manifest una gran incertesa en les prediccions i fins i tot, qüestionen la seva utilitat en el context de canvi global. El conjunt dels treballs que s’exposen pretenen donar una visió sintètica de la possibilitat d’ús d’aquests models per a prediccions de distribució d’espècies vegetals, tant presents com futures.
La present recerca se centra en l’anàlisi de diversos aspectes problemàtics per a aquests models en la predicció de la distribució´ d’espècies vegetals en el context del canvi global. Específicament s’ha avaluat la diferència entre prediccions basades en models ecofisiològics i models correlatius sobre l’efecte de prediccions actuals i futures , la variació entre prediccions a nivell de taxó o a nivell de comunitat, la variació en la predicció de canvi de nínxol davant possibles invasions i finalment, l’addició de l’escala temporal en les prediccions.
S’ha pogut constatar que el fet de basar-se en correlacions estàtiques minva la seva capacitat de transferència a noves situacions i no incorpora trets biològics que poden tenir una importància cabdal (p.ex. fisiologia). En situacions de projeccions en l’espai i en el temps, s’observen importants variacions espacials en les prediccions, tant a nivell de comunitat com a nivell de poblacions de diversa provinença. Això comporta que les assumpcions i l’escala geogràfica i biològica hagin de ser adaptades segons la qüestió a la que el model s’adreça així com de la disponibilitat de dades. A més, incorporar l’escala temporal pot afegir una cert grau de dinamisme a aquests models estàtics, malgrat que no es poden inferir efectes a una resolució temporal adequada per a alguns fenòmens climàtics extrems .
Dels resultats se’n desprèn que la utilització d’aquests models pot servir com a una bona eina de generació d’hipòtesis sobre dels diferents factors que actualment constrenyen la distribució de les espècies. A més, pot ser una tècnica potent per estimar el grau d’exposició de les espècies davant noves situacions de canvi global. Tot i això, les seves prediccions han de ser confrontades amb d’altres tècniques oimés quan es tracta de valorar escenaris plausibles subjectes a una gran incertesa. En general, aquests models són molt significatius per a la caracterització de l’exposició a noves situacions.La distribución de las especies ha sido objetos de estudio por parte de diversas disciplinas dada su naturaleza multifactorial. Así, entender verdaderamente la distribución de las especies implica necesariamente un mejor conocimiento del funcionamiento de la biosfera. Por otro lado, el cambio global que esta sufriendo nuestro planeta previsiblemente afectará en gran medida muchas especies, variando su distribución y en última instancia, la composición de los ecosistemas tal y como los conocemos hoy día así como los servicios que proporcionan. La modelización ha permitido aumentar nuestro grado de comprensión sobre el sistema Tierra así como de las potenciales consecuencias que los cambios antropogénicos pueden provocar (cambio climático, alteración de ciclos biogeoquímicos, destrucción de hábitats, etc.). En el campo de la distribución de especies, los modelos de nicho ecológico han sido ampliamente utilizados para estudiar y predecir cambios en la distribución de los organismos. Estos modelos se basan en la determinación de las condiciones ambientales óptimas en las que una determinada especie puede vivir y reproducirse (nicho). Sin embargo, estos modelos utilizan una aproximación correlativa entre presencia de un organismo y las variables ambientales actuales, hecho que presenta diversas desventajas que ponen de manifiesto una gran incertidumbre en las predicciones e incluso, cuestionan su utilidad en el contexto del cambio global. El conjunto de los trabajos que aquí se exponen pretenden dar una visión sintética de la posibilidad de uso de estos modelos para predicciones de la distribución de especies vegetales, tanto presentes como futuras. La presente investigación se centra en el análisis de aspectos problemáticos de índole diversa de este tipo de modelos, cuando son aplicados para predecir la distribución de especies vegetales bajo supuestos de cambio global. Específicamente se ha evaluado la diferencia entre predicciones basadas en modelos ecofisiológicos y modelos correlativos en la predicción de distribuciones presentes y futuras, la variación entre predicciones a nivel de taxón o a niveles de comunidad, la variación en la predicción según la población bajo riesgos potenciales de cambio de nicho i finalmente, la adición de la escala temporal en las predicciones. Se ha podido constatar que el hecho de basarse en correlaciones estáticas disminuye su capacidad de transferencia a nuevas situaciones i no incorpora características biológicas que pueden tener una importancia vital (p.ej. fisiología). En situaciones de proyecciones en el espacio y el tiempo, se observan variaciones espaciales significativas en las predicciones, tanto a nivel de comunidad como a nivel de poblaciones de diverso origen. Esto comporta que las asunción i la correcta elección de la escala geográfica i biológica según el objetivo del modelo. Además, la incorporación de la escala temporal puede añadir un cierto grado de dinamismo a estos modelos estáticos, a pesar que no se pueden inferir efectos a una resolución temporal adecuada para algunos fenómenos climáticos extremos. En general, dichos modelos son relevantes para caracterizar la exposición a nuevas situaciones.
The distribution of species has been studied by various disciplines due to its multifactorial nature. Thus, to truly understand the distribution of species necessarily implies a better understanding of the functioning of the biosphere. On the other hand, the overall change our planet is undergoing, it is expected to greatly affect many species, varying distribution and ultimately the composition of ecosystems as we know them today and the services they provide. The modeling has enhanced our level of understanding of the Earth system and the potential consequences that anthropogenic changes can cause (climate change, alteration of biogeochemical cycles, habitat destruction, etc..). In the field of species distribution, ecological niche models have been widely used to study and predict changes in the distribution of organisms. These models are based on determining the optimum environmental conditions in which a species can live and reproduce (niche). However, these models use a correlative approach between the presence of an organism and the current environmental variables, which has several disadvantages that cause a uncertainty in predictions and even question their usefulness in the context of global change. All the works presented here are intended to give a synthetic view of the possibility of using these models for predictions of the distribution of plant species, both present and future. This research focuses on the analysis of problematic aspects of these models, when applied to predict the distribution of plant species under global change scenarios. Specifically we evaluated the difference between model predictions and ecophysiological models to predict correlative and future distributions, the variation between predictions at the level of taxon or community levels, the variation in the prediction at the population levels and finally, the addition of the timescale in the predictions. It has been shown that basing predictions on static correlations diminishes their transference capacity to new situations and does not incorporate key biological traits that may play a key role (e.g. physiology). In projections in space and time, it has been observed significant spatial variations in predictions, whether at the community or individual level of species or different populations across continents. This implies that the choice of the biological or geographical scale may be fit for model’s purpose. Furthermore, the incorporation of the temporal scale may add a certain degree of dynamism to these static modles, despite they cannot be infered for effects at higher temporal resolution for some extreme climatic events. In general, such models are relevant to characterize exposure to new situations.
7
Vázquez, Rivera Héctor. « Changing Climate and Geographical Patterns of Taxonomic Richness ». Thesis, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/31721.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The geographic variation of taxonomic richness may be directly determined by climate through contemporaneous/ecological processes, versus other (e.g., historical/evolutionary processes) that happen to be collinear with contemporaneous climate. In Chapter 1 I evaluated hypotheses from both groups of explanations in North America. If contemporaneous climate controls patterns of richness, then richness should vary with climate through time in the same way that richness varies with current climate through space. Over the last ca. 11,000 yr, richness-temperature relationships remained reasonably constant. Between 12,000 and 14,000 yr BP, when climate fluctuated rapidly, richness gradients as a function of temperature were significantly shallower. If historical climate over the last 21,000 years determines patterns of richness, then historical climate should be a better predictor of richness than contemporaneous climate. I rejected historical-climate as a better predictor of richness. Contemporaneous climate stands as the most plausible explanation for contemporaneous patterns of richness, at least over the last 11,000 yr. In Chapter two, I tested the prediction that richness of most taxa should increase with temperature in all but the warmest and driest areas. Climate warming during Pleistocene-Holocene transition led richness increases in wet areas, but richness declines in dry regions, as expected from current richness-climate relationships. A decline in small mammal species richness in Northern California since the late Pleistocene was expected from the current richness-climate relationship for this group in North America. These results contest the view that future global warming may lead to species extinction rates that would qualify as the sixth mass extinction in the history of the earth. In chapter three, I first tested the hypothesis that richness gradients mainly reflect the sum of individual species climatic tolerances. I tested this hypothesis for birds, mammals and trees native to eastern North America (ENA, where there are no major barriers to dispersal). The number of species present in any given area in ENA is usually much smaller than the number of species in the continental pool that tolerate the climatic conditions in that area. Second, I tested several explanations for patterns of unfilled potential richness. Unfilled potential richness is inconsistent with postglacial dispersal lags, climatic variability since the Last Glacial Maximum, or with biotic interactions. In contrast, unfilled richness is highly consistent with a probabilistic model of species climate occupancy. Individual species climatic tolerances is not the process generating the main current patterns of richness, nor are post-glacial dispersal lags, climatic variability since the LGM or biotic interactions. This thesis is consistent with the hypothesis that contemporaneous climate directly controls spatial patterns of richness. Generally, there seems to be little need to invoke historical processes as determinants of current gradients of richness.
8
Boavida-Portugal, Joana Sousa e. Silva. « Global patterns of marine biodiversity and the potential impact of climate change ». Doctoral thesis, Universidade de Évora, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10174/27840.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Marine species are highly susceptible to climate change as demonstrated by several
studies. However, most of these studies focus on few species or on restricted
geographical areas. Within this context, the main goal of my dissertation is to
characterize global patterns and forecast the effects of climate change on marine
biodiversity. This work is the first macroecological approach to investigate the effects of
climate change in the marine realm on key commercial marine groups, namely coastal
lobsters (125 species), cephalopods (161 species) and small pelagic fish (103 species).
Here I aimed to improve our understanding of how projected changes in species
distribution might affect key marine species diversity, body size, assemblage
composition, variations in catch, and finally infer on the potential impacts for fisheries
worldwide. Using Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) the projected global diversity
patterns of the analyzed species generally showed higher values in tropical areas and
lower values in higher latitudes. Nonetheless, these patterns were projected to change
significantly by the end of the century, with a general tendency of species tracking
adequate habitat suitability to higher latitudes. The results obtained provide critical
information to anticipate negative impacts of climate change on marine biodiversity and
should be considered in future studies, as they highlight climate hot-spot areas or with
highly vulnerable species. Ultimately, it is crucial to evaluate species adaptation
potential and develop hybrid models that better can guide future political decisions on
conservation and management measures; RESUMO:
Padrões globais da biodiversidade marinha e o potencial impacto das alterações
climáticas
As espécies marinhas são altamente suscetíveis às alterações climáticas, como
demonstrado em numerosos estudos. Porém muitos desses estudos focam-se num
número reduzido de espécies ou numa determinada área geográfica (local ou regional).
Neste contexto, a presente dissertação tem como objetivo investigar os padrões globais
de biodiversidade marinha e projetar como estes poderão estar modificados no final do
século. Este trabalho constitui a primeira abordagem macroecológica que investiga,
numa escala global, os impactos das alterações climáticas em taxa marinhos com alto
interesse económico, como lagostas (125 espécies), cefalópodes (161 espécies) e
pequenos peixes pelágicos (103 espécies). Os padrões globais de biodiversidade
marinha para todos os taxa analisados mostram maior riqueza na zona dos trópicos e
menor número de espécies nas maiores latitudes. No entanto, estes padrões podem
sofrer modificações significativas até ao final do século verificando-se uma tendência
generalizada das espécies migrarem para latitudes maiores de forma a encontrarem
refúgio em áreas com boa adequação ambiental. Os modelos usados nesta tese
(modelos de nicho ecológico) projetam alterações significativas na distribuição das
espécies analisadas, com impactos profundos na riqueza e abundância em áreas vitais
para a saúde dos oceanos e para as pescas, a longo prazo. Esta dissertação representa
um contributo importante para o conhecimento dos padrões globais da biodiversidade
nos oceanos futuros. Servindo os seus resultados para orientar estudos pormenorizados
em áreas de risco elevado ou com espécies mais vulneráveis e informar a tomada de
decisões com vista a proteção de espécies marinhas com elevado valor económico e
ambiental. Contudo, atendendo aos efeitos das alterações climáticas já sentidos nos
oceanos, é crucial avaliar a capacidade de adaptação destas espécies e encontrar
modelos híbridos que melhor nos permitam orientar medidas de gestão e conservação
futuras.
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Compagnoni, Aldo. « Climate change and plant demography in the sagebrush steppe ». DigitalCommons@USU, 2013. https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/etd/1748.
Texte intégralRésumé :
We used demographic methods to address one of the main challenges facing ecological science: forecasting the effect of climate change on plant communities. Ecological forecasts will be crucial to inform long-term planning in wildland management and demographic methods are ideal to quantify changes in plant abundance. We carried out our research in the sagebrush steppe, one of the most extensive plant ecosystems of Western North America. Our research intended to inform ecological forecasts on an exotic invader, cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum). Moreover, we investigated the general question asking: to what degree competition among plants influences the outcome of ecological forecasts on the effect of climate change? We carried out two field experiments to test the hypothesis that warming will increase cheatgrass abundance in the sagebrush steppe. This hypothesis was strongly supported by both experiments. Warming increased cheatgrass abundance regardless of elevation, neighboring vegetation or cheatgrass genotype. Moreover, we found cheatgrass was hindered by snow cover. Therefore, warming increases cheatgrass growth directly by increasing temperature, and indirectly by decreasing or removing snow cover. In our last experiment, we tested whether forecasts of climate change effects on rare species can ignore competition from neighbors. This should occur because rare species should have little niche overlap with other species. The lower the niche overlap, the less competition with other species. To test this hypothesis, we used a long-term data set from an Idaho sagebrush steppe. We built population models that reproduced the dynamics of the system by simulating climate and competition. Model simulations supported our hypothesis: rare species have little niche overlap and little competitive interactions with neighbor species.
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Yadav, Sunita. « The Influence of Climate and Topography in Modeling Distributions for Species with Restricted Ranges : A Case Study Using the Hawaiian Endemic Plant Genus, Schiedea (Caryophyllaceae) ». University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2015. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1447690823.
Texte intégral
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Douglas, M. R., M. A. Davis, M. Amarello, J. J. Smith, G. W. Schuett, H. W. Herrmann, A. T. Holycross et M. E. Douglas. « Anthropogenic impacts drive niche and conservation metrics of a cryptic rattlesnake on the Colorado Plateau of western North America ». ROYAL SOC, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/617208.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Ecosystems transition quickly in the Anthropocene, whereas biodiversity adapts more slowly. Here we simulated a shifting woodland ecosystem on the Colorado Plateau of western North America by using as its proxy over space and time the fundamental niche of the Arizona black rattlesnake (Crotalus cerberus). We found an expansive (= end-of-Pleistocene) range that contracted sharply (= present), but is blocked topographically by Grand Canyon/Colorado River as it shifts predictably northwestward under moderate climate change (= 2080). Vulnerability to contemporary wildfire was quantified from available records, with forested area reduced more than 27% over 13 years. Both 'ecosystem metrics' underscore how climate and wildfire are rapidly converting the Plateau ecosystem into novel habitat. To gauge potential effects on C. cerberus, we derived a series of relevant 'conservation metrics' (i.e. genetic variability, dispersal capacity, effective population size) by sequencing 118 individuals across 846 bp of mitochondrial (mt)DNA-ATPase8/6. We identified five significantly different clades (net sequence divergence = 2.2%) isolated by drainage/topography, with low dispersal (F-ST = 0.82) and small sizes (2N(ef) = 5.2). Our compiled metrics (i.e. small-populations, topographic-isolation, low-dispersal versus conserved-niche, vulnerable-ecosystem, dispersal barriers) underscore the susceptibility of this woodland specialist to a climate and wildfire tandem. We offer adaptive management scenarios that may counterbalance these metrics and avoid the extirpation of this and other highly specialized, relictual woodland clades.
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Colombo, Alexandre Falanga. « Consequencias potenciais das mudanças climaticas globais para especies arboreas da Mata Atlantica ». [s.n.], 2007. http://repositorio.unicamp.br/jspui/handle/REPOSIP/315801.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Orientador: Carlos Alfredo JolyDissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Biologia
Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-10T11:54:10Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Colombo_AlexandreFalanga_M.pdf: 5588594 bytes, checksum: 83b01e835775102ddb89b1b93563832d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007
Resumo: Desde o início da colonização portuguesa, a Mata Atlântica, um dos dez biomas mais ricos e diversos do mundo, sofreu uma redução considerável em extensão e diversidade. O extrativismo, o avanço da agricultura extensiva e o rápido crescimento das cidades na faixa litorânea do país, foram e continuam sendo em algumas regiões, responsáveis pela redução da vegetação nativa. Dados recentes mostram que restam apenas 7% da cobertura florestal original, e menos do que 5% são efetivamente de florestas nativas pouco antropizadas. Esta situação pode estar sendo agravada devido às mudanças nos padrões climáticos terrestres. Exarcebados pela ação humana, o aquecimento global, a mudança do regime de chuvas, entre outras alterações atmosféricas, podem modificar substancialmente o padrão de distribuição das espécies arbóreas dos biomas nativos. Este processo pode resultar na diminuição da área de ocorrência ou mesmo na extinção de espécies. Este trabalho tem como objetivo, através de técnicas de modelagem preditiva, delinear áreas de distribuição geográfica futura de 38 espécies arbóreas típicas da Mata Atlântica lato sensu, considerando dois cenários de aquecimento global nos próximos 50 anos. No cenário otimista, que prevê um aumento anual de 0,5% na concentração de CO2 da atmosfera, o aumento médio da temperatura terrestre seria = 2 oC; já no cenário pessimista, com um aumento médio de 1% na concentração de CO2 atmosférico, o aumento médio da temperatura seria da ordem de 4 oC. Considerando estes parâmetros, e usando GARP-Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction, foram gerados três modelos para cada espécie: um de distribuição presente e dois de cenários futuros, um otimista e outro pessimista em relação às emissões de CO2 até 2050. Os resultados obtidos mostram, de forma alarmante, uma redução na área de ocorrência potencial das espécies estudadas, além de um possível deslocamento destas para regiões mais ao sul do que as atualmente observadas. Em média, no cenário otimista, a redução na área de ocorrência potencial é de 25%, e no cenário pessimista de 50%. Espécies como Euterpe edulis, Jacaranda puberula, Mollinedia schottiana, Virola bicuhyba, Inga sessilis, Ecclinusa ramiflora e Vochysia magnifica são as que poderão sofrer mais os efeitos do aumento da temperatura global. A geração de informação sobre as conseqüências das atividades humanas na terra vem aumentando, fornecendo subsídios técnicos para a tomada de decisões no âmbito político, econômico e acadêmico. Apesar de, no estágio atual, as ferramentas de modelagem não terem a precisão desejada, a consistência dos padrões de deslocamento e redução na área potencial de ocorrência reforçam a importância delas serem incorporadas à formulação e aperfeiçoamento das políticas de conservação de nossos ecossistemas nativos
Abstract: One of the top ten most diverse rich forests in the word, the Brazilian Atlantic Forest has been suffering significant losses since the Portuguese arrived in Brazil in 1500. Wood, palm hart and epiphytes extraction, extensive agriculture and the expansion of large cities still are the main threats. Recent data shows that there are less then 7% of native forest left, and from those only 5% can be considered pristine. Aggravated by human activities global warming, changes in rainfall patterns, among other changes may affect substantially native trees geographical distribution. The result of this process may be a reduction in the area of occurrence of species and, ultimately, in the extinction of a large number of them. In this study we used predictive modeling techniques to determine present and future geographical distribution of 38 species of tree that are typical of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest (Mata Atlântica lato sensu), considering two global warming scenarios. The optimistic scenario, based in a 0,5% increase in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, predicts an increase of up to 2 oC in Earth¿s average temperature; in the pessimistic scenarios, based in a 1% increase in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, temperature increase may reach 4 oC. Using these parameters and the Genetic Algorithm for Ruse-set Predictions/GARP three models were produced: one with the present distribution of the species based in occurrence points registered in literature, the other two were based in changes of Earth¿s mean temperature by 2050 using the optimistic and the pessimistic scenarios of CO2 emission. The results obtained show an alarming reduction in the area of possible occurrence of the species studied, as well as a shift towards the most southern part of Brazil. In average, using the optimistic scenario this reduction is of 25% while in the pessimistic scenario it reaches 50%. Among the species studied Euterpe edulis, Jacaranda puberula, Mollinedia schottiana, Virola bicuhyba, Inga sessilis, Ecclinusa ramiflora e Vochysia magnífica are the ones that will suffer the worst reduction in their possible area of occurrence. Nowadays scientific certainty about climate changes as a consequence of human activities is so strong, that it must be taken in account by all spheres of action: political, economic and academic. Although predictive models are not yet as precise as we would like and need, the consistency of patterns of shifts and reductions in areas of potential occurrence of tropical plant species strengthen the importance of incorporating them in planning and implementing native biodiversity policies
Mestrado
Ecologia
Mestre em Ecologia
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Mestre, Frederico Manuel Vaz Pontes Vitorino. « Synergistic effects of climate change and habitat fragmentation on species range shifts and metapopulation persistence ». Doctoral thesis, Universidade de Évora, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10174/21118.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The effects of climate and landscape change on biodiversity have been widely
acknowledged. However, there is still limited understanding on how the interaction
among these processes affects species persistence over large spatial scales. This thesis
aims to study the synergistic effects of climate and landscape change on species
persistence and range shift dynamics. Using the Cabrera vole as model species, and
combining ecological niche modeling (ENM), non-invasive genetic analysis and field
sampling at predicted range margins, it is shown that forecasting range shifts of
metapopulations under climate change, should require detailed sampling at the
extremes of the ecological niche and that combining these three techniques allows an
effective assessment of the niche. Analysis of metapopulation persistence and range
expansion under landscape and climate change involved the development of an R
package, ‘MetaLandSim’. This package offers a set of simulation tools integrating
concepts from metapopulation and graph theories, providing an opportunity for
testing ecological theories and evaluating species responses to environmental change.
A first example of the package use is demonstrated by combining ENM projections
with dispersal models (DM) considering three different connectivity scenarios. It is
clearly demonstrated that combining range shift with lower connectivity will result in
narrower range sizes for the Cabrera vole, highlighting the relevance of both, climate
change and landscape connectivity in range dynamics evaluation. Finally,
‘MetaLandSim’ was used to test the hypothesis that intermediate levels of landscape
disturbance may increase species persistence under certain species and landscape
traits. Using a set of 54 virtual species differing in their ecological traits, it is shown that
species with mid to higher dispersal and early successional preferences were more
likely to benefit from intermediate disturbance. Overall, this study provides important
insights for improving predictions on metapopulation persistence and range dynamics
under various scenarios of landscape and climate change; Efeitos sinergéticos das alterações climáticas e fragmentação de habitat
na distribuição das espécies e persistência metapopulacional
Resumo:
Os efeitos das alterações de paisagem e climáticas são reconhecidos na literatura
científica. Esta tese tem por objetivo contribuir para a clarificação e compreensão dos
efeitos sinergéticos das alterações climáticas e de paisagem na persistência das
metapopulações e na alteração das áreas de distribuição das espécies. Usando o ratode-
Cabrera como modelo, e combinando a modelação de nicho ecológico (ENM) com
técnicas de genética não-invasiva e amostragens de campo nas margens da área de
distribuição, demonstra-se a combinação das três técnicas e a inclusão de amostras
nos extremos do nicho ecológico tornam mais eficaz que a previsão das novas áreas de
distribuição num contexto de alterações climáticas. A análise da persistência
metapopulacional e da expansão da área de distribuição em condições de alterações
ambientais envolveu o desenvolvimento do package de R ‘MetaLandSim’. Este oferece
um conjunto de ferramentas de simulação combinando as teorias dos grafos e
metapopulações, o que permite testar teorias ecológicas e avaliar respostas das
espécies às alterações ambientais. Usa-se este package para gerar modelos de
dispersão (DM) que consideram simultaneamente a conectividade da paisagem e
capacidade de dispersão. Estes DM, com três cenários de conectividade, foram
projetados para o futuro e combinados com as projeções dos ENM. Demonstra-se que
a perda de conectividade, associada à movimentação da janela climática, terá reduzirá
a área de distribuição do rato-de-Cabrera. Finalmente, o ‘MetaLandSim’ é usado para
testar a hipótese de que níveis intermédios de perturbação da paisagem podem
beneficiar algumas espécies. Foram usadas 54 espécies virtuais com diferentes
características ecológicas demonstrando que espécies com dispersões médias a elevadas e preferência por manchas nos primeiros estados da sucessão beneficiam de
níveis intermédios de dinamismo. Este estudo fornece informação relevante para
melhorar previsões da persistência das metapopulações e das dinâmicas das áreas de
distribuição sob diversos cenários de alterações ambientais.
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Obenauer, Julie, Megan Quinn, Ying Li et Andrew Joyner. « Including Human Population Characteristics in Ecological Niche Models for Aedes aegypti when Modeling Projected Disease Risk due to Climate Change ». Digital Commons @ East Tennessee State University, 2017. https://dc.etsu.edu/etsu-works/13.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The Aedes aegypti mosquito is responsible for transmission of four vector-borne diseases that cause considerable global morbidity and mortality. Projections of the future effects of global climate change indicate that expansion of this species due to changing habitats is possible. Furthermore, since A. aegypti is highly dependent on human populations for feeding and egg-laying sites, changing human population characteristics are likely to alter the risk of exposure for humans based on geographic location. This study aims to create future potential risk maps for human exposure to A. aegypti using human population density as a predictor. Using current population density data and future growth trajectories, high-resolution human population density forecasts were created for 2050, then included as variables in ecological niche models developed using Maxent. Species occurrence data and high resolution climate data for current and future conditions (best and worst case scenarios) were included in the model, as well. Model fit indices and variable contributions indicated that the inclusion of human population density improves model accuracy for A. aegypti. Risk maps created by these models showed that areas currently adjacent to large cities within endemic regions, such as central Africa and western Brazil, are likely to see the greatest increase in risk to human populations. This corroborates current projections on increasing urbanization in the future and suggests that these models can be used to target interventions in high risk areas.
15
Farallo, Vincent R. « Notes from the Underground : Linking Microhabitat and Species Distributions of Plethodontid Salamanders ». Ohio University / OhioLINK, 2017. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ohiou148156741016879.
Texte intégral
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Obenauer, Julie. « The Increasing Risk of Vector-Borne Diseases : Mapping the Effects of Climate Change and Human Population Density on Future Aedes aegypti Habitats ». Digital Commons @ East Tennessee State University, 2017. https://dc.etsu.edu/etd/3199.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The Aedes aegypti mosquito is the vector for four infectious diseases of global concern – Yellow Fever, Dengue, Chikungunya, and Zikavirus. Previous attempts to model the expansion of the vector habitat due to global climate change have rarely included characteristics related to the human populations on which this mosquito is dependent. The purpose of this research was to determine whether the inclusion of human population density improves model performance while creating risk maps that can be used to determine where humans are most likely to be exposed to the vector in the future. The resulting model demonstrated that the inclusion of human population density improves the predictive power for A. aegypti and should be considered during model development. Maps produced by the model were also suitable for identifying regions where human populations are most likely to experience increased risk. Finally, two areas at risk of expansion were highlighted as a case study in pairing risk mapping with evidence-based intervention strategies to identify sites that would benefit from mosquito-control efforts. In this case, a low-cost program of insecticide-treated covers for water storage containers would likely work well in both Minas Gerais, Brazil and Northwestern Province, Zambia to mitigate mosquito risk. This research demonstrates that human population characteristic not only improve model fit but also increase the extent to which risk maps are actionable by aiding in targeting interventions.
17
Ström, Lotta. « Effects of climate change on boreal wetland and riparian vegetation ». Doctoral thesis, Umeå universitet, Institutionen för ekologi, miljö och geovetenskap, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-43811.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Models of climate change predict that temperature will increase during the 21th century and the largest warming will take place at high northern latitudes. In addition to warming, predictions for northern Europe include increased annual precipitation and a higher proportion of the precipitation during winter falling as rain instead of snow. These changes will substantially alter the hydrology of rivers and streams and change the conditions for riverine communities. The warming is also expected to result in species adjusting their geographic ranges to stay within their climatic tolerances. Riparian zones and wetlands are areas where excess water determines the community composition. It is therefore likely that these systems will be highly responsive to alterations in precipitation and temperature patterns. In this thesis we have tested the predicted responses of riparian vegetation to climate-driven hydrologic change with a six year long transplant experiment (I). Turfs of vegetation were moved to a new elevation with shorter or longer flood durations. The results demonstrate that riparian species will respond to hydrologic changes, and that without rare events such as unusually large floods or droughts, full adjustment to the new hydrological regime may take at least 10 years. Moreover, we quantified potential effects of a changed hydrology on riparian plant species richness (II) and individual species responses (III) under different climate scenarios along the Vindel River in northern Sweden. Despite relatively small changes in hydrology, the results imply that many species will become less frequent than today, with stochastic extinctions along some reaches. Climate change may threaten riparian vegetation along some of the last pristine or near-natural river ecosystems in Europe. More extensive loss of species than predicted for the Vindel River is expected along rivers in the southern boreal zone, where snow-melt fed hydrographs are expected to be largely replaced by rain-fed ones. With a seed sowing experiment, we tested the differences in invasibility between open wetlands, forested wetlands and riparian zones (IV). All six species introduced were able to germinate and survive in all habitats and disturbance levels, indicating that the tested wetlands are generally invisible. Germination was highest in open wetlands and riparian zones. Increasing seed sowing density increased invasion success, but the disturbance treatments had little effect. The fact that seeds germinated and survived for 2 to 3 years in all wetland habitats indicates that wetland species with sufficiently high dispersal capacity and propagule pressure would be able to germinate and establish here in their respective wetland type. Our results clearly demonstrate that a changed climate will result in substantial changes to functioning, structure and diversity of boreal wetland and riparian ecosystems. To preserve species rich habitats still unaffected by dams and other human stressors, additional protection and management actions may have to be considered.
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Schulte, Ulrich [Verfasser], et Michael [Akademischer Betreuer] Veith. « Origin, climate niche, population genetics and intraspecific hybridization of introduced wall lizard populations in Central Europe / Ulrich Schulte ; Betreuer : Michael Veith ». Trier : Universität Trier, 2012. http://d-nb.info/1197806334/34.
Texte intégral
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Roura, i. Pascual Núria. « Predicting Argentine ant invasion across spatial scales via ecological niche models ». Doctoral thesis, Universitat de Girona, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/7909.
Texte intégralRésumé :
La formiga argentina (Linepithema humile) es troba entre les espècies més invasores: originària d'Amèrica del Sud, actualment ha envaït nombroses àrees arreu del món. Aquesta tesi doctoral intenta fer una primera anàlisi integrada i multiescalar de la distribució de la formiga argentina mitjançant l'ús de models de nínxol ecològic. D'acord amb els resultats obtinguts, es preveu que la formiga argentina assoleixi una distribució més àmplia que l'actual. Les prediccions obtingudes a partir dels models concorden amb la distribució actualment coneguda i, a més, indiquen àrees a prop de la costa i dels rius principals com a altament favorables per a l'espècie. Aquests resultats corroboren la idea que la formiga argentina no es troba actualment en equilibri amb el medi. D'altra banda, amb el canvi climàtic, s'espera que la distribució de la formiga argentina s'estengui cap a latituds més elevades en ambdós hemisferis, i sofreixi una retracció en els tròpics a escales globals.Argentine ants (Linepithema humile) rank among the most successful invasive species: native to South America, they have invaded broad areas worldwide. This PhD thesis attempts to take the first step towards an integrated and multi-scalar analysis of the Argentine ant distribution using ecological niche models. According to our results, the Argentine ant is expected to occupy a broader distribution in its worldwide invaded ranges than is currently appreciated. Model predictions are in concordance with the currently known occurrence of the species, and indicate areas near the coast and following the main rivers as highly suitable for the species. These results give additional support to the idea that the Argentine ant is not currently in equilibrium with its environment. According to global climate change scenarios, the Argentine ant is expected to expand to higher northern and southern latitudes, and retract in the tropics at global spatial scales.
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Bourgeaud, Luana. « Histoire évolutive et potentiel adaptatif : une approche éco-évolutive de la vulnérabilité des espèces aux changements climatiques ». Thesis, Toulouse 3, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020TOU30263.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Comprendre les processus influençant la distribution géographique des espèces est un des objectifs en écologie et il revêt actuellement un intérêt particulier puisque le changement climatique causé par les activités humaines entraine la redistribution des espèces à la surface du globe. Dans ce contexte, nous avons exploré la dynamique temporelle de la niche climatique (ensemble des exigences climatiques d'une espèce) dans le but de déterminer la capacité des espèces à faire face aux changements climatiques. Pour cela, nous nous sommes intéressés aux taux de changements de niches climatiques passés qui décrivent les changements de niches climatiques survenus au cours de l'histoire évolutive des espèces faisant alors l'hypothèse que les changements climatiques passés pourraient refléter les changements climatiques actuels. Suite à la reconstruction d'une phylogénie datée pour 12616 espèces de poissons, nous avons compilé des données climatiques et de distributions afin d'estimer pour chaque espèce les taux de changements de niches climatiques passés. Dans un premier projet, nous avons étudié les facteurs influençant les taux de changements de niches climatiques passés dans les milieux aquatiques. Nous avons en particulier confirmé que les taux de changements de niches climatiques passés sont plus forts vers les latitudes les plus hautes. Nous avons également discuté des différences entre les écosystèmes marins et d'eau douce. Dans un deuxième projet, nous avons corrélé les taux de changements de niches climatiques avec des mesures de déplacements d'aires de distribution contemporains. Nous avons montré que les taux de changements de niches climatiques sont positivement associés aux déplacements d'aires de distribution contemporains chez les poissons marins. Nos résultats suggèrent que l'influence des taux de changements de niches climatiques passés et plus généralement de l'histoire évolutive des espèces sur leurs réponses aux changements climatiques actuels doit être explorée plus amplement pour définir comment ce domaine pourra informer la conservation de la biodiversitéUnderstanding the processes influencing the geographical distribution of species is one of the main aims in ecology and is of particular interest since climate change caused by human activities is currently leading to the geographical redistribution of species. In this context, we explored the temporal dynamics of the climatic niche (the set of climatic requirements of a species) in an attempt to determine species' ability to cope with climate change. To do this, we investigated historical rates of climatic niche change which describe past climatic niche changes that occurred over the course of species evolutionary history assuming that past climatic changes reflect current climate change. Following the reconstruction of a dated phylogeny for 12,616 fish species, we compiled climate and distribution data to estimate historical rates of climatic niche change. In a first project, we studied the factors influencing historical rates of climatic niche change in aquatic environments. In particular, we confirmed that historical rates of climatic niche change are greater at higher latitudes. We also discussed the differences between marine and freshwater ecosystems. In a second project, we correlated historical rates of climatic niche change with measures of contemporary range shifts. We showed that historical rates of climatic niche change are positively associated with contemporary range shifts in marine fish. Our results suggest that the influence of historical rates of climatic niche change and more generally of species evolutionary history on their response to current climate change needs to be further explored to determine how it can inform biodiversity conservation
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Barreto, Bruno de Souza. « Conservação de mamíferos no cerrado e em Goiás ». Universidade Federal de Goiás, 2012. http://repositorio.bc.ufg.br/tede/handle/tede/3334.
Texte intégralRésumé :
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Conselho Nacional de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico - CNPq
Increasingly biodiversity has lost diversity around the globe because of the way the human population have used natural resources. To reduce the impacts caused by human activity, conservation units (CU) have been created to ensure the maintenance of biodiversity. However, many conservation units were not established following scientific criteria and its efficiency can therefore be questioned. In this study we tried to evaluate the efficiency of conservation of the Cerrado based on species richness and beta diversity of mammals currently and in accord to climate change expected for 2080. We show through gap analyzes that species are represented in the current system both in the current climate and in the future. However, they have become rarer within CUs with climate change. We show that CUs do not capture a greater diversity than expected by chance. It is expected a larger number of species within the CUs in 2080, however, the number of species outside them will also be greater. As for beta diversity, there will be a reduction of the index in 2080 and both outside and within the UCs expected on average the same value. Climate change became UC’s Cerrado more inefficient, there will be an increase in the number of threatened species because of climate change interfering in the spatial arrangement of species on the Cerrado. This draws attention to the evaluation of systems of protected areas consider the spatial-temporal dynamics of the species.
Cada vez mais a biodiversidade tem perdido diversidade ao redor do planeta em razão do modo como a população humana têm utilizado os recursos naturais. Para reduzir os impactos causados pela atividade humana, unidades de conservação (UC) têm sido criadas para garantir a manutenção da biodiversidade. Contudo, muitas unidades de conservação criadas não seguem critérios científicos e sua eficiência pode ser, portanto, questionada. No presente trabalho buscou-se avaliar a eficiência das unidades de conservação do Cerrado com base na riqueza de espécies e a diversidade beta dos mamíferos atualmente e em consonância com as mudanças climáticas esperadas para 2080. Nós mostramos por meio de análises de lacunas, as espécies estão representadas no atual sistema tanto no clima atual quanto no futuro. Contudo, elas tornaram-se mais raras dentro das UC’s com as mudanças climáticas. Mostramos que as UC’s não capturam uma diversidade maior que o esperado ao acaso. Espera-se um número maior de espécies dentro das UC’s em 2080, contudo, o número de espécies fora delas será também maior. Quanto a diversidade beta, haverá uma redução do índice em 2080 e tanto fora das UC’s quanto dentro espera-se, em média o mesmo valor. As mudanças climáticas tornaram as UC’s do Cerrado mais ineficientes, haverá um aumento do número de espécies ameaçadas em razão das mudanças climáticas interferirem no arranjo espacial das espécies sobre o Cerrado. Isto chama a atenção para a avaliação de sistemas de unidades de conservação considerem a dinâmica espaço-temporal das espécies.
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Mosher, Danika. « Past, Current, and Future Potential Distributions of Red Spruce and Fraser Fir Forests in the Southern Appalachians : Interpreting Possible Impacts of Climate Change ». Digital Commons @ East Tennessee State University, 2020. https://dc.etsu.edu/etd/3851.
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Spruce-Fir forests are relicts from the Pleistocene and can only be found within the Southern Appalachians. Analyzing the relationships between species distribution, climatic parameters, topography, and biotic interactions through ecological niche modeling creates prediction maps for conservation efforts. Maxent, Boosted Regression, and Random Forest were utilized to compare which model and variable combinations best approximate the unique mountain forest environment. Maxent with a bias file produced optimal results and was used to examine distributional changes that may occur in the future and how these changes compare to paleo-environmental distributions. Fraser fir has shown evidence of being influenced by changing climates based on historical data and in future predictions. These findings show areas of decline in 2050 and 2070. When combined with weather, climate, genetics, and ecological studies, this is a useful tool for resource allocation to areas that are predicted to be resilient in the face of climate change.
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Cordier, Tristan. « Structure des assemblages fongiques de la phyllosphère des arbres forestiers et effet potentiel du changement climatique ». Thesis, Bordeaux 1, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012BOR14511/document.
Texte intégralRésumé :
La phyllosphère est l’habitat fourni par la partie foliaire des plantes. De nombreuses espèces microbiennes - pathogènes, saprophytes ou mutualistes des plantes - peuplent cet environnement. Ce compartiment microbien influence donc la dynamique et la structure des communautés végétales. L’objectif principal de cette thèse était d’étudier les effets potentiels du changement climatique sur la structure des assemblages fongiques de la phyllosphère des arbres forestiers, et sur la niche écologique des espèces fongiques pathogènes des arbres forestiers. Nous avons pour cela utilisé deux approches, i) l’étude de gradients altitudinaux et ii) la construction de modèles de niche bioclimatique.Les assemblages fongiques de la phyllosphère des arbres forestiers étant encore peu connus, nous avons dans un premier temps décrit leur diversité et quantifié leur variabilité spatiale à l’échelle d’une parcelle forestière.Nos résultats montrent que la phyllosphère d’un arbre forestier abrite quelques centaines d’espèces fongiques, avec quelques espèces dominantes et beaucoup d’espèces rares. Les facteurs structurant ces assemblages incluent à la fois des facteurs abiotiques et biotiques : la température apparaît comme la variable climatique la plus explicative le long d’un gradient altitudinal ; à l’échelle d’une parcelle, la proximité génétique entre arbres est plus déterminante que leur distance géographique.L’analyse des modèles de niche des champignons pathogènes forestiers à l’échelle de la France met en évidence des limitations climatiques, les pluies estivales étant une variable explicative importante.Toutefois, plusieurs espèces introduites occupent déjà la plus grande part de la distribution de leur hôte,sans limitation apparente par le climat. Les effets du changement climatique sur la plupart des pathogènes s’exerceront d’abord indirectement par des effets dépressifs très importants sur l’abondance de leurs arbres-hôtes. Seuls les pathogènes adaptés au biotope méditerranéen verraient leur impact s’accroitrePhyllosphere is the habitat provided by the leaves of living plants. Many microbial species -pathogens, saprophytes or mutualists of plants - inhabit this environment. These microbes therefore influence the dynamics and structure of plant communities. The main objective was to study the potential effects of climate change on the structure of phyllosphere fungal assemblages, and on the ecological niche of pathogenic fungal species of forest trees. We used two approaches, i) the study of altitudinal gradients and ii) the construction of bioclimatic niche models. Since phyllosphere fungal assemblages of forest trees are still poorly known, we first described their diversity and quantified their spatial variability at the scale of a forest stand.Our results show that the phyllosphere of a forest tree houses hundreds of fungal species, with few dominant species and many rare species. Factors structuring these assemblages include both abiotic and biotic factors: the temperature appears as the most explanatory variable along an elevation algradient. At the scale of a forest stand, the genetic proximity between trees is more important than the geographic distance. Analysis of the bioclimatic niche models of pathogenic fungi forest at the French scale highlights some climatic limitations, and the summer rainfall is an important explanatory variable. However, many introduced species already occupy the distribution of their host, without apparent climatic limitation. The effects of climate change on most pathogens will be exercised indirectly by very important depressive effects on the abundance of their host trees. Only pathogens adapted to the Mediterranean biotope would increase their impact
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Georgian, Sam Ellis. « ENVIRONMENTAL AND ENERGETIC CONSTRAINTS ON COLD-WATER CORALS ». Diss., Temple University Libraries, 2016. http://cdm16002.contentdm.oclc.org/cdm/ref/collection/p245801coll10/id/382890.
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BiologyPh.D.
Cold-water corals act as critical foundation species in the deep sea by creating extensive three-dimensional habitat structures that support biodiversity hotspots. There is currently a paucity of data concerning the environmental requirements and physiology of cold-water corals, severely limiting our ability to predict how resilient they will be to future environmental change. Cold-water corals are expected to be particularly vulnerable to the effects of ocean acidification, the reduction in seawater pH and associated changes to the carbonate system caused by anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Here, the ecological niche and physiology of the cold-water coral Lophelia pertusa is explored to predict its sensitivity to ocean acidification. Species distribution models were generated in order to quantify L. pertusa’s niche in the Gulf of Mexico with regard to parameters including seafloor topography, the carbonate system, and the availability of hard substrate. A robust oceanographic assessment of the Gulf of Mexico was conducted in order to characterize the current environmental conditions at benthic sites, with a focus on establishing the baseline carbonate system in L. pertusa habitats. Finally, an experimental approach was used to test the physiological response of biogeographically separated L. pertusa populations from the Gulf of Mexico and the Norwegian coast to ocean acidification. Based on my findings, it appears that L. pertusa already persists near the edge of its viable niche space in some locations, and therefore may be highly vulnerable to environmental change. However, experimental results suggest that some populations may be surprisingly resilient to ocean acidification, yielding broad implications for the continued persistence of cold-water corals in future oceans.
Temple University--Theses
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Dennhardt, Lauren Alexsandra. « Evidence of Climate Niche Creation in the Northern Great Plains : The History of Invasion, Population Genetics, Competitive Effect, and Long-Term Trends of Invasive Poa Pratensis L ». Diss., North Dakota State University, 2016. https://hdl.handle.net/10365/28229.
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Understanding the mechanisms of invasion is critical in order to control an invasive species. Poa pratensis L. (Kentucky bluegrass) is an invasive species that has been present in the northern Great Plains (NGP) for over 100 years, but has become a dominant species in the mixed grass region recently. My dissertation seeks to answer one critical question—why has P. pratensis become such a successful invasive species in the NGP? I first asked if the invasion was caused by adaptation and/or propagule pressure. I screened the genetic fingerprint of invasive P. pratensis in the NGP along with measuring the genomic content of wild plants and compared them to common cultivars. I found virtually no overlap between lawn cultivars and invasive P. pratensis populations. This was further supported by a narrow range of genomic content in wild individuals compared to the lawn cultivars. I also found no evidence of geographical patterning which is consistent with the hypothesis that local adaptation is not pervasive in P. pratensis. I then asked whether P. pratensis was a strong competitor compared to dominant plant species native to the tallgrass prairie. I studied competitive effect between Poa pratensis, Nassella viridula, Pascopyrum smithii, and Bouteloua gracilis through a species-pair competition experiment. Based on the relative interaction indices, P. smithii and P. pratensis were competitive against B. gracilis, and P. smithii was competitive against N. viridula. Additionally, P. pratensis was facilitated by all three species in the experiment. This study indicates that P. pratensis may be somewhat competitive. Finally, I asked whether the increase in the frequency of P. pratensis in the NGP may be attributed to environmental factors. In order to understand long-term correlations between P. pratensis invasion and environmental variables, I resampled plots that were previously sampled for species composition in 1978, 1979, and 1999. I found that P. pratensis levels did increase across plots and was corrrelated with higher levels of precipitation. My research indicates that increased precipitation in the NGP as a result of climate change is correlated with P. pratensis invasion in the NGP.United States Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS-R6-POAPRATENSISGENETICS)
North Dakota State University. Department of Biological Sciences
North Dakota State University. Department of Natural Resource Management
North Dakota State University. Graduate School
Cross Ranch Fellowship
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Schickele, Alexandre. « Modélisation des aires de répartition futures d'espèces marines d'intérêt commercial en Méditerranée dans un contexte de changement climatique ». Thesis, Université Côte d'Azur, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020COAZ4069.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Les conditions environnementales définissent la distribution des espèces marines à l’échelle globale. Celles-ci seront potentiellement altérées par le changement climatique, impactant l’exploitation des ressources halieutiques et l’équilibre des écosystèmes. Dans ce contexte, cette thèse identifie les espèces et les zones géographiques qui seront potentiellement impactées par le changement climatique, en se focalisant sur certaines espèces, indigènes ou non-indigènes, d’intérêt commercial en Méditerranée.Basée sur le concept de niche écologique, qui définit la distribution potentielle d’une espèce en fonction des conditions environnementales dans lesquelles elle a été observée, nous avons développé une procédure de modélisation de la distribution actuelle et future des espèces marines. Cette procédure s’appuie sur un ensemble d’algorithmes statistiques, de modèles climatiques et de scénarios futurs. Elle permet de projeter un ensemble de distributions futures, à large échelle spatiale et temporelle, tout en proposant des réponses aux principales limitations des modèles de niche écologique. Successivement appliquée aux petits poissons pélagiques et aux céphalopodes, nous avons identifié des impacts majeurs du changement climatique en Méditerranée à l’horizon 2100, notamment des extinctions locales de plusieurs espèces de petits poissons pélagiques dans son bassin Sud-Est. Au contraire, la mer du Nord, les côtes norvégiennes et la mer Baltique pourraient bénéficier d’une expansion de l’aire de distribution de ces espèces. A l’échelle du golfe du Lion, les conséquences théoriques d’un changement de distribution des petits poissons pélagiques impacteraient indirectement leur exploitation ainsi que la productivité des bas niveaux trophiques. Les effets conjugués du réchauffement de la Méditerranée et de l’agrandissement du canal de Suez sont à l’origine d’invasions biologiques, notamment dans son bassin Sud-Est. Parmi ces espèces non-indigènes de Méditerranée, certaines présentent un intérêt commercial ou pourraient faire l’objet d’une exploitation future. Nous avons quantifié le potentiel invasif de plusieurs espèces non-indigènes, en fonction de leurs traits fonctionnels et écologiques, puis estimé leur expansion future à l’aide de notre procédure de modélisation de niche écologique. L’ensemble de la Méditerranée pourrait voir l’arrivée de ces espèces à l’horizon 2100, en particulier pour un réchauffement supérieur à 2°C.Cette thèse révèle la sensibilité particulière de la Méditerranée au réchauffement climatique tout en proposant des perspectives d’adaptation ou de conservation des espèces et des écosystèmes face aux tendances climatiques du 21ème siècleEnvironmental conditions are shaping the spatial distribution of marine species worldwide. However, climate change may alter their future distribution, impacting marine resources exploitation and ecosystems balance. In this context, this PhD identifies climate induced impacts in species and geographical areas, by focusing on some species, indigenous or non-indigenous, of commercial interest in the Mediterranean.Based on the ecological niche concept, that defines the potential distribution of a species according to the environmental conditions in which it is observed, we developed a contemporary and future distribution modelling procedure for marine species. This procedure includes an ensemble of statistical algorithms, future climate models and scenarios while accounting for common ecological niche modelling limitations. Applied to small pelagic fish and cephalopods, we projected major climate induced impacts in the Mediterranean Sea by 2100, including local extinctions in its south-eastern basin. Conversely, we projected a distributional range expansion of most of the studied species towards the North, Norwegian and Baltic seas. In the Gulf of Lion, the small pelagic fish distributional range shifts may indirectly impact their harvesting capacity as well as the productivity of low trophic levels. The combined effects of climate warming and the opening of the Suez Canal induced biological invasions, especially in the South-East Mediterranean. These non-indigenous Mediterranean species may be of commercial interest subject to future harvesting. After quantifying the invasive potential of several non-native Mediterranean marine species, according to their functional and ecological traits, we applied our modelling procedure to estimate their future distributional range expansion. We projected a major distributional range expansion of non-native species in the whole Mediterranean Sea by 2100, especially for warming exceeding 2°C.This work highlights the sensitivity of the Mediterranean Sea to climate change while proposing adaptation and conservation perspective of species and ecosystems facing the upcoming climate trends of the 21st century
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Storey, Liza Preethy. « Effects of climate and land use change on invasive species a case study of Tradescantia fluminensis (Vell.) in New Zealand / ». The University of Waikato, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10289/2634.
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Climate change, land use change and invasive species are transforming global biodiversity at multiple scales. Projections are for threats to biodiversity from these global changes to continue into the future, with varied and discernible distribution changes for many species. Concomitantly, these global changes will interact with each other to further exacerbate the problem, as exemplified in this study. In New Zealand, climate change is expected to affect landscapes, fragmented and disturbed by land use change, further increasing the potential invasibility of these landscapes for a suite of existing and emerging invasive species. This thesis is concerned with the combined effects of climate and land use changes on the spatial distribution of the sub-tropical invasive plant, Tradescantia fluminensis (Vell.). The contribution of this thesis is to undertake an integrated assessment of the distribution change for this species in New Zealand. On the basis that climatic variables affect species distribution at larger scales, while land use, habitat, disturbance and dispersal mechanisms affect distribution at smaller scales, two separate analyses were undertaken. At the national scale BioCLIM and the Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) were implemented using the variables: minimum temperature (July-August), MTminJ-A, and annual water deficit (November-February). At the landscape scale, only ENFA was implemented, using the variables: MTminJ-A, ECOSAT riparian classes (habitat) and proximity to roads, urban areas and streams (disturbance and dispersal sources). Three scenarios of climate change (CCSR B1-Low, CSIRO9 A1B-Mid and HadCM A1FI-High) and two scenarios of land use change (SmartGrowth and Buildout) were developed to the year 2050, using the CLIMPACTS Open Framework Modelling System and Geographic Information Systems, GIS, techniques respectively. The baseline species distribution model was extrapolated in ENFA, using the 2050 scenarios. Changes to potential threat from this species to protected areas at the landscape level were assessed spatially at the landscape level. This approach and its results are novel for this species. At the national scale the results for the modelling show that climate change will increase the potential habitat suitability of Tradescantia under all combined scenarios of CCSR, CSIRO9 and HadCM for mean minimum temperature (July-August), MTminJ-A and Annual Water Deficit, AWD. At the case study landscape, in the Western Bay of Plenty and Tauranga also the modelling results showed that climate change and land use changes will increase the suitability for Tradescantia by 2050. The 'core' or highest suitability areas increase under all future scenarios. At the national level core suitability increased by about 13% for the CCSR:B1-Low and CSIRO9:A1B-Mid and 22% for HadCM:A1FI-High combined scenario on the North Island. On the South Island, core areas increased by a much lower margin - 1.4%, 2.3% and 2.9% for CCSR:B1-Low, CSIRO9:A1B-Mid and HadCM:A1FI-High combined scenarios respectively. At the landscape level core areas increased by 5%, 8% and 21% for the CCSR:B1-Low+SmartGrowth, Darlam:A1b-Mid+SmartGrwoth and HadCM:A1FI-High+Build-out combined scenarios, respectively. This is true also for the Protected areas within the case study landscape, and indicate that the increasing if Tradescantia is able to track both climate and land use change through its dispersal and migration within the landscape 9 primarily in the inland and upland direction), then is will pose a greater risk to native habitats than at present. Integrated assessments and the outputs they produce are essential to exploring anticipated changes (through scenario-building) and in understanding the change spatial context and magnitude of projected changes from the combined effects of climate and land use changes into the future and need to be integrated into biodiversity-biosecurity management at multiple scales.
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Silva, Helen Rosa da. « Padrões espaciais e temporais na amplitude de nicho climático de vertebrados terrestres ». Universidade Federal de Goiás, 2015. http://repositorio.bc.ufg.br/tede/handle/tede/5527.
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES
Understanding how species are distributed across space and what determines where they live is one of the oldest goals in Ecology. The concept of niche is very closely related to this goal. In fact, environmental variables are frequently used to predict the potential distribution of species. Niche amplitude is an important concept which helps us to understand which part of the available environmental space each species occupies, and how much of their niches overlap. Here we used a measure of niche amplitude based on the minimum and maximum tolerances of terrestrial vertebrates (except reptiles) for each variable related to climate. We calculated a single measure of niche amplitude for each species by considering together all chosen environmental variables. We used this number to first investigate the presence of latitudinal gradient in niche amplitude across the study area, which comprised the whole terrestrial globe. There is a significant correlation between niche amplitude and latitude for Old World birds. Second we tried to identify some phylogenetic structure in niche amplitude for birds. For this goal, we calculated the pair-wise niche overlap, and then compared the degree of overlap with pair-wise phylogenetic distances. We found no relationship between niche overlap and phylogenetic distance. We conclude that the absence of phylogenetic signal in niche overlap is due to the high dispersion capability of birds in general. If species have a high geographic range, they consequently have high niche amplitude, and therefore high overlap rates. Finally, we found a clear tendency of positive local spatial autocorrelation in mean niche overlap, as neighbor cells tend to show similar rates of niche overlap between species.
Compreender os fatores que determinam a distribuição das espécies no espaço geográfico é uma das questões mais importantes em ecologia. O conceito de nicho é fortemente relacionado a essa questão. Não por acaso, variáveis ambientais são comumente usadas para inferir a distribuição potencial de espécies. Amplitude de nicho é uma medida importante que nos possibilita saber que proporção do espaço ambiental cada espécie ocupa. Assim, podemos também identificar que proporção do espaço ocupado por cada espécie, seu nicho, é sobreposta pelo nicho das espécies coexistentes. No presente trabalho utilizamos uma medida de amplitude de nicho específica baseada na soma das tolerâncias para cada variável climática utilizada. Utilizamos essa medida para investigar, primeiramente, a presença de estrutura espacial, especificamente gradiente latitudinal, na amplitude de nicho de vertebrados terrestres (exceto répteis), numa escala global. Apenas aves do Velho Mundo apresentaram amplitude de nicho negativamente associada à latitude. Posteriormente, investigamos a presença de estrutura filogenética na amplitude de nicho em Aves, baseados na hipótese de conservação de nicho. Para esse objetivo calculamos a sobreposição de nicho par-a-par e então correlacionamos essa medida com as distâncias filogenéticas. Não houve correlação entre proximidade filogenética e sobreposição de nicho. Tal resultado pode estar relacionado à grande capacidade de dispersão de aves. Se a área de ocupação geográfica é ampla, a amplitude das tolerâncias é em geral alta e consequentemente a sobreposição média entre diferentes espécies. Finalmente houve forte indício de autocorrelação espacial positiva na sobreposição média por célula entre células próximas, indicando que áreas próximas tendem a apresentar espécies com taxas semelhantes de sobreposição de nicho.
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Oliveira, Brunno Freire Dantas de. « Padr?es distintos de congru?ncia clim?tica em duas esp?cies invasoras de prosopis em zonas semi-?ridas da Am?rica do Sul ». Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, 2012. http://repositorio.ufrn.br:8080/jspui/handle/123456789/14022.
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Previous issue date: 2012-02-13Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior
Based on climate data and occurrence records, ecological niche models (ENM) are an important opportunity to identify areas at risk or vulnerable to biological invasion. These models are based on the assumption that there is a match between the climatic characteristic of native and invaded regions predicting the potential distribution of exotic species. Using new methods to measure niche overlap, we chose two exotic species fairly common in semi-arid regions of South America, Prosopis juliflora (Sw.) D.C. and Prosopis pallida (H. ; B. ex. Willd) HBK, to test the climate matching hypothesis. Our results indicate that both species occur with little niche overlap in the native region while the inverse pattern is observed in the invaded region on South America, where both species occur with high climatic overlap. Maybe some non-climate factor act limiting the spread of P. pallida on the native range. We believe that a founder effect can explain these similarities between species niche in the invaded region once the seeds planted in Brazil came from a small region on the Native range (Piura in Peru), where both species occur sympatric. Our hypothesis of a founder effect may be evident when we look at the differences between the predictions of the models built in the native and invaded ranges. Furthermore, our results indicate that P. juliflora shows high levels of climate matching between native and invaded ranges. However, conclusions about climate matching of P. pallida should be taken with caution. Our models based on climatic variables provide multiple locations suitable for occurrence of both species in regions where they still don t have occurrence records, including places of high interest for conservation.
Baseados nas informa??es clim?ticas e nos registros de ocorr?ncia, modelos de nicho ecol?gico (MNE) s?o uma importante oportunidade de identificar ?reas sob risco ou vulner?veis ? invas?o biol?gica. Estes modelos se ap?iam na suposi??o de que existe congru?ncia entre os climas das regi?es nativa e invadida para prever a distribui??o potencial de esp?cies ex?ticas. Utilizando m?todos recentes para medir sobreposi??es entre MNE, escolhemos duas esp?cies invasoras bastante comuns em regi?es semi-?ridas da Am?rica do Sul, Prosopis juliflora (Sw.) D.C. e Prosopis pallida (H. ; B. ex. Willd) H.B.K., para testar a hip?tese da congru?ncia clim?tica. Nossos resultados indicam as duas esp?cies ocorrem com pouca sobreposi??o de nicho na regi?o nativa, enquanto que o inverso se observa na regi?o invadida na Am?rica do Sul, onde as duas esp?cies ocorrem com elevada sobreposi??o de nicho. Algum fator n?o clim?tico pode atuar limitando a dispers?o de P. pallida na ?rea nativa. Acreditamos que um efeito fundador pode explicar estas semelhan?as de nicho encontradas na regi?o invadida uma vez que as sementes plantadas no Brasil vieram de uma pequena regi?o da ?rea nativa (Piura, Peru), onde ambas esp?cies ocorrem em simpatria. Diferen?as entre as previs?es dos modelos constru?dos na regi?o nativa e projetados para a regi?o nativa evidenciam nossa hip?tese do efeito fundador. Al?m disso, nossos resultados indicam que P. juliflora ocorre nas regi?es nativas e invadidas em condi??es clim?ticas bastante congruentes. Entretanto, conclus?es sobre congru?ncia clim?tica entre regi?es nativas e invadidas por P. pallida devem ser tomados com cautela. Os modelos prev?em v?rios locais favor?veis para a ocorr?ncia de ambas as esp?cies em regi?es onde ainda n?o existem registros de ocorr?ncia, inclusive locais de elevado interesse para conserva??o.
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Préau, Clémentine. « Identification et modélisation des habitats d'espèces à enjeux et évolution de leur aire de répartition avec le changement climatique ». Thesis, Poitiers, 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019POIT2316.
Texte intégralRésumé :
La chute de la biodiversité actuelle est le résultat des changements globaux et notamment du changement climatique. Elle contribue à amplifier les effets des changements globaux sur les écosystèmes. Bien que l’évaluation des impacts du changement climatique sur la distribution des espèces soit largement étudiée à de larges échelles, l’évaluation à l’échelle nationale, régionale ou même départementale est moins systématique bien qu’elle soit la plus appropriée pour être prise en compte dans les stratégies de conservation. Afin d’évaluer la vulnérabilité d’espèces emblématiques des zones humides au changement climatique, nous avons construit des scénarios de distribution en utilisant des approches basées sur la modélisation de niche écologique. Nous nous sommes intéressés aux amphibiens, organismes ectothermes présentant un mode de vie à la fois aquatique et terrestre et de faibles capacités de dispersion, qui sont fortement menacés par les activités humaines et le changement climatique. Nous avons évalué les impacts potentiels du changement climatique sur la distribution du sonneur à ventre jaune Bombina variegata, du triton crêté Triturus cristatus, de la rainette arboricole Hyla arborea, et de la rainette méridionale Hyla meridionalis, en estimant les interactions entre la présence des espèces et les facteurs environnementaux et en évaluant les effets des changements climatique et d’occupation du sol sur la distribution potentielle des espèces à l’échelle régionale. Puis, nous nous sommes intéressés aux effets de scénarios de changement climatique sur la distribution potentielle et la connectivité des habitats favorables chez le triton marbré Triturus marmoratus et T. cristatus à l’échelle du département de la Vienne. Enfin, nous avons évalué la capacité de T. marmoratus à suivre un potentiel déplacement des zones favorables dû au changement climatique, dans un contexte de changements d’occupation du sol à l’échelle nationale. Dans un second temps, nous nous sommes intéressés à une autre espèce emblématique des milieux humides et des cours d’eau, l’écrevisse à pattes blanches Austropotamobius pallipes. Ainsi, nous avons modélisé l’impact du changement climatique sur la distribution de l’espèce en prenant en compte explicitement la distribution d’une espèce invasive et compétitive, l’écrevisse signal Pacifastacus leniusculus. Les projections pour les conditions futures ont été réalisées à partir de scénarios de réchauffement climatique basés sur des grandes trajectoires de forçage radiatifs nommées RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways).Nos études ont permis de mettre en évidence que le changement climatique risque d’entrainer une contraction des aires de répartition ainsi qu’un potentiel déplacement des aires favorables de la plupart aux espèces étudiées, avec un impact plus ou moins important selon l’espèce et le scénario de changement climatique considéré. Par ailleurs, nous avons montré l’importance de l’occupation du sol pour l’atténuation des effets du changement climatique sur la distribution des espèces. Suite à la prise en compte des incertitudes et des limites relatives aux différentes études, les résultats des travaux présentés pourront être utiles à la conservation, à la gestion et à l’évaluation des espèces étudiées, et être reproduits pour d’autres espèces de zones humidesThe current decline in biodiversity is the result of global changes, including climate change. It contributes to amplifying the effects of global changes on ecosystems. Although the assessment of the impacts of climate change on species distribution is widely studied at large scales, assessment at the national, regional or even departmental scale is less systematic although it is the most appropriate to be accounted in conservation strategies. In order to assess the vulnerability of emblematic wetland species to climate change, we have constructed distribution scenarios using approaches based on ecological niche modelling. We focused on amphibians, ectothermic organisms with both aquatic and terrestrial stages and low dispersal abilities, which are highly threatened by human activities and climate change. We assessed the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of the yellow-bellied toad Bombina variegata, the great crested newt Triturus cristatus, the tree frog Hyla arborea, and the Mediterranean tree frog Hyla meridionalis, by estimating the interactions between species presence and environmental factors and by assessing the effects of climate and land use changes on the potential distribution of species at the regional scale. Then, we focused on the effects of climate change scenarios on the potential distribution and connectivity of suitable habitats of the marbled newt Triturus marmoratus and of T. cristatus across the administrative department of Vienne. Finally, we assessed the ability of T. marmoratus to follow a potential shift of suitable areas due to climate change, in a context of land use change at the national scale. We then studied another emblematic species of wetlands and rivers, the white-clawed crayfish Austropotamobius pallipes. We modelled the impact of climate change on its distribution by explicitly accounting for the distribution of an invasive and competitive species, the signal crayfish Pacifastacus leniusculus. Projections for future conditions were forecasted using global warming scenarios based on radiative forcing trajectories called RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways).Our studies have shown that climate change is likely to lead to a contraction of ranges and a potential shift in the suitable areas for most of the studied species, with a more or less significant impact depending on the considered species and the climate change scenario. In addition, we have shown the importance of land use in mitigating the effects of climate change on species distribution. Following consideration of uncertainties and limitations, the results of the presented work may be useful for the conservation, management and assessment of the studied species, and may be replicated for other wetland species
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Sorribas, Mellado Juan José. « Biological control of California red scale, Aonidiella aurantii (Hemiptera : Diaspididae) : spatial and temporal distribution of natural enemies, parasitism levels and climate effects ». Doctoral thesis, Universitat Politècnica de València, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10251/14794.
Texte intégralRésumé :
En muchas áreas citrícolas del mundo el piojo rojo de California (PRC), Aonidiella aurantii (Hemiptera: Diaspididae), está considerado una plaga clave. En el Este de España se ha extendido durante las últimas décadas hasta cubrir una amplia extensión de cítricos. El control químico es difícil y frecuentemente es seguido de infestaciones recurrentes en poco tiempo, de la aparición de resistencias a diferentes productos usados para su control y de la eliminación de enemigos naturales en el campo. La mejora del manejo
integrado y las técnicas de control biológico del PRC requieren conocer la composición de los enemigos naturales en cada zona climática, la fluctuación en su abundancia estacional, los niveles de parasitismo y depredación, como se distribuyen en la planta y como son afectados por el clima y el cambio climático.
Aunque mucho se ha estudiado en laboratorio sobre los parasitoides Aphytis (Hymenoptera: Aphelinidae), los principales agentes de control del PRC, todavía no se conoce qué combinación de enemigos naturales consigue el mejor nivel de control en el campo, cómo varían los niveles de parasitismo a lo largo del año o cómo los parasitoides se distribuyen y compiten en el campo en relación con el clima. La acción de los Aphytis, ectoparasitoides, es complementada en muchas zonas citrícolas por los endoparasitoides
Comperiella bifasciata y Encarsia perniciosi (Hymenoptera: Aphelinidae), los cuales pueden parasitar estadíos diferentes a Aphytis. Muy poco se sabe sobre el comportamiento y las respuestas biológicas bajo diferentes condiciones climáticas de estos endoparasitoides. Del mismo modo, el efecto de los depredadores sobre la población del piojo ha sido raramente estudiado. Actualmente, A. melinus, una especie introducida en el Este de España y el competidor superior, ha desplazado al parasitoide nativo A. chrysomphali de las zonas cálidas y secas ya que puede tolerar mejor las temperaturas cálidas del verano.Sorribas Mellado, JJ. (2011). Biological control of California red scale, Aonidiella aurantii (Hemiptera: Diaspididae): spatial and temporal distribution of natural enemies, parasitism levels and climate effects [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/14794
Palancia
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Gurgel, Priscila Cabral Silveira. « Reproductive modes are associated to climatic niche evolution in treefrogs (anura : hylidae) ». Universidade Federal de Goiás, 2016. http://repositorio.bc.ufg.br/tede/handle/tede/6263.
Texte intégralRésumé :
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Goiás - FAPEG
Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES
The similarity of life-history traits among closely related species is a well-known pattern in evolutionary biology. Thus, closely related species tend to be more akin to each other than to distantly related ones. The propensity of closely related species to conserve climatic niche features over macroevolutionary time can be defined as climatic niche conservatism. Recent studies have shown the importance of environmental variables with regards to the diversity and distribution of anurans with differences in their reproductive traits under an evolutionary perspective. In this work, using frog species in the Hylidae family, we tested the hypothesis that species more independent from main bodies of water for reproduction are restricted to areas with higher temperature and precipitation means. We also investigated the evolution of climatic niche features of species with different degrees of dependence on water for reproduction. Our results corroborate the first hypothesis and show that terrestrial egg-laying species, in the Hylinae subfamily, have more conserved climatic niche position when compared to Hylinae species that deposits their eggs and tadpoles in main water bodies. Thus, we suggest that reproductive modes are associated with variation in the evolution of climatic niches of frogs.
A similaridade entre atributos de espécies aparentadas é um padrão tradicional reconhecido em biologia evolutiva. Espécies aparentadas tendem ser mais similares entre si do que com espécies não aparentadas. A tendência de espécies aparentadas conservar as características de seu nicho ao longo do tempo macroevolutivo pode ser definido como conservação filogenética de nicho. Estudos recentes tem mostrado a importância das variáveis climáticas na distribuição de anfíbios anuros com diferentes modos reprodutivos utilizando uma abordagem evolutiva. Neste trabalho, usando as espécies de pererecas da família Hylidae, testamos a hipótese de que espécies menos dependentes dos corpos d'água para reprodução ocorrem em áreas mais quentes e mais úmidas. Além disso, investigamos como foi a evolução dos atributos do nicho climático (posição e amplitude) de espécies, da subfamília Hylinae, com diferentes níveis de dependência dos corpos d'água para reprodução. Nossos resultados corroboram a primeira hipótese e mostram que, espécies da subfamília Hylinae que depositam seus ovos fora da água estão restritas a lugares mais quentes e mais úmidos. Além disso, tais espécies tem o nicho climático mais conservado do que espécies que depositam tanto ovos como girinos em corpos d'água principais. Portanto, sugerimos que os diferentes modos reprodutivos refletem em diferenças na evolução do nicho climático nas espécies da subfamília Hylinae.
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Barbosa, Fabiana Gonçalves. « Modelos de distribuição de espécies invasoras : tendências e aplicações ». reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRGS, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/49285.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Modelos de distribuição de espécies, também conhecidos como modelos bioclimáticos ou modelos de nicho ecológico, têm sido aplicados em inúmeras questões ecológicas, incluindo espécies invasoras. Essa tese identificou as principais tendências e lacunas de estudos sobre o uso de modelos de distribuição de espécies para predizer a distribuição potencial de espécies invasoras (primeiro artigo). Adicionalmente, aplicou-se modelos de distribuição de espécies para predizer a distribuição potencial de Eragrostis plana Nees na América do Sul e verificar se ocorreu mudança de seu nicho bioclimático durante o processo de invasão (segundo artigo). Finalmente, avaliou-se a resposta em relação às áreas de ocorrência de cinco gramíneas Africanas invasoras nas Américas frente às mudanças climáticas (terceiro artigo). O primeiro artigo realiza uma análise cienciométrica sobre o uso de modelos de distribuição de espécies para predizer a distribuição potencial de espécies invasoras. O segundo artigo utiliza o Algoritmo GARP como técnica de modelagem e foram criados dois modelos para predizer a distribuição potencial de E. plana: um utilizando dados da região nativa da espécie (África do Sul) e outro com dados da região nativa e invadida (regiões da Argentina, Brasil e Uruguai). Posteriormente, cada modelo foi projetado na América do Sul para identificar regiões favoráveis ao estabelecimento de E. plana e verificar se os registros de ocorrência da espécie encontram-se dentro das regiões preditas com alta probabilidade pelos modelos. Além disso, a hipótese de que espécies podem alterar o seu nicho climático durante o processo de invasão foi avaliada para E. plana através de análises estatísticas multivariadas. O terceiro artigo aplica distintas técnicas de modelagem disponíveis no ambiente computacional BIOMOD, seguidas de conjunto de previsões para predizer a distribuição potencial das cinco gramíneas invasoras Africanas nas Américas frente às mudanças climáticas globais.Species distribution models, also known as bioclimatic models or ecological niche models, have been applied in numerous ecological issues, including invasive species. This thesis indentified the main trends and gaps in studies on the use of species distribution models to predict the potential distribution of invasive species (first paper). Additionally, it includes species distribution modelling to predict the potential distribution of Eragrostis plana Nees in South America and assess the potential shift of its bioclimatic niche in the process of invasion (second paper). Finally, it includes as assessment of the response in terms of areas of occurrence of five invasive African grasses in the Americas under climate changes (third paper). The first paper provides a scientometric analysis on the use of species-distribution models to predict the potential distribution of invasive species. The second paper uses the algorithm GARP as modelling method and created two models to predict the potential distribution of E. plana: the first one used data from the native region (South Africa) and the second one data from both the native and invaded (Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay). Subsequently, each model was projected in South America to identify regions favorable to the establishment of E. plana and assess whether the occurrence records are found within regions predicted by the models with high probability. Moreover, the hypothesis that species can shift their bioclimatic niche during the invasion process was evaluated for E. plana using multivariate statistical analysis. The third paper applies distinct modelling methods available in the BIOMOD package, followed by ensembles forecasting to predict the potential distribution of five invasive African grasses in Americas under climate changes.
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Chaalali, Aurélie. « Évolution à long terme de l'écosystème estuarien de la Gironde ». Phd thesis, Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux I, 2013. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00922990.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Les estuaires font partie des écosystèmes les plus productifs de la planète. Ils constituent une zone d'importants échanges de matières et jouent à ce titre un rôle capital pour les cycles biogéochimiques. Du fait de leur position à l'interface entre domaines continental et marin, ils sont également un lieu de passage obligatoire pour de nombreuses espèces de poissons migrateurs ou encore de nourricerie et de refuge. Ces systèmes sont contraints par de nombreuses pressions de natures diverses dont certaines en lien avec les activités humaines locales (p. ex. pêcheries, transport maritime, dragages, pollutions accrues, etc.). Ces altérations viennent s'ajouter à la variabilité intrinsèque de ces systèmes naturellement complexes (variabilité spatio-temporelle de différents facteurs environnementaux ; c.-à-d. température, salinité, turbidité, etc.). Toutefois, une intensification de ces d'altérations, dont une partie est associée à la composante climatique des changements globaux, est observée depuis ces dernières décennies. Ces modifications avérées et leurs incidences sur les communautés biologiques constituent un enjeu en matière de gestion des écosystèmes estuariens. Cependant, par manque de chroniques de données continues suffisamment longues, peu d'études sur l'évolution à long terme de systèmes estuariens ont été réalisées à ce jour. Pour mes travaux, j'ai eu à ma disposition un ensemble de chroniques uniques - acquises depuis 35 ans - associées à plusieurs suivis écologiques de l'estuaire de la Gironde (notre site atelier). L'objectif général de cette thèse est de caractériser l'évolution globale du système dans son ensemble (physico-chimie et biologie) et d'identifier les forçages impliqués. L'originalité de ces travaux, par rapport aux études spécifiques déjà menées, consiste à analyser l'évolution de l'ensemble des descripteurs caractéristiques du fonctionnement d'un système modèle et de qualifier la part relative aux forçages globaux. L'étude des séries chronologiques, via une approche end-to-end basée sur des analyses multivariées, permet d'identifier deux changements abrupts d'état de l'écosystème de l'estuaire de la Gironde, associés à des fluctuations hydroclimatiques à large échelle (bassin Atlantique nord) mais aussi à une échelle plus locale (estuaire). Des hypothèses relatives aux possibles mécanismes impliqués, reliant les altérations climatiques à large échelle aux altérations observées à l'échelle des communautés biologiques estuariennes, sont discutées. Un deuxième volet de la thèse, au travers d'une approche modélisatrice basée sur le concept de niche d'Hutchinson, permet d'identifier un changement de répartition spatiale, longitudinale, des populations de copépodes estuariennes en réponse au réchauffement des masses d'eau et à la marinisation de l'estuaire. Enfin un troisième volet de mes travaux s'est consacré à l'étude spécifique d'une espèce de copépode invasive : Acartia tonsa. Suivant une double approche modélisatrice permettant d'estimer à la fois les niches fondamentale et réalisée de l'espèce, ces travaux illustrent l'importance relative des changements climatiques qui ont facilité la colonisation et l'essor de cette espèce dans l'estuaire.
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Zacarias, Daniel Augusta. « Desafios para conservação de elefantes na África ». Universidade Federal de Goiás, 2017. http://repositorio.bc.ufg.br/tede/handle/tede/8107.
Texte intégralRésumé :
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES
Biodiversity conservation is in crisis and urgent responses are needed to reverse the extinction of species, the proliferation of invasive species and the fragmentation of habitats. Among several approaches being implemented, the protection of species with great dispersal capacity and that play important ecological role has been advocated as a solution, since the protection of their habitat in parallel contributes to the protection of other species and habitats. The elephant, a megagardener of forests and savannahs, represents this type of species in the sense that it inhabits vast areas, has a high dispersal capacity and guarantees the dispersion and growth of plant species in extensive areas. Unfortunately, the current situation of the elephant is not positive and international efforts have been developed to reverse the current scenarios of reduction of its abundance and the protection of its habitat. This thesis focuses on African elephant species (Loxodonta africana and Loxodonta cyclotis) and aims to contribute to the knowledge of the main challenges that must be embraced for their protection, using an interdisciplinary approach involving scientometric analysis, climate niche modelling, multi-scale modelling of habitat connectivity, quasi-linear regression models and structural equations and knowledge syntheses. Chapter I presents a systematic review of conservation genetics studies of the African savannah elephant and discusses the main research areas, the elephant populations involved and the main lines of research addressed. Chapter 2 presents the modelling of the climatic niche response to multi-temporal climate change and determines the potential for connectivity between remaining elephant habitats and chapter 3 presents the interaction between environmental, socioeconomic and governance indicators to explain abundance of elephants in Africa, based on the most recent IUCN estimates. The fourth chapter discusses the main challenges associated with the introduction of African elephants as a strategy for the recovery of lost ecological functions with the extinction of megafauna in the Pleistocene, and the fifth chapter, which concludes, presents the synthesis of challenges and opportunities for the conservation of African elephants.
A conservação da biodiversade está em crise e são necessárias respostas urgentes para reverter a extinção de espécies, a proliferação de espécies invasoras e a fragmentação de habitats. Dentre as várias abordagens sendo implementadas, a proteção de espécies com grande capacidade de dispersão e que desempenham papel ecológico importante tem sido advogada como solução, na medida em que a proteção de seu habitat paralelamente contribui para a proteção de outras espécies e habitats. O elefante, megajardineiro das florestas e savanas, representa este tipo de espécies, no sentido em que habita vastas áreas, tem elevada capacidade de dispersão e garante a dispersão e crescimento de espécies vegetais por vastas áreas. Infelizmente a situação actual do elefante não é positiva e esforços internacionais têm sido desenvolvidos no sentido de reverter os atuais cenários de redução de sua abundancia e a proteção do seu habitat. Esta tese debruça-se sobre as espécies de elefante africano (Loxodonta africana e Loxodonta cyclotis) e procura contribuir para o conhecimento dos principais desafios que devem ser abraçados para a sua proteção, servindo-se de uma abordagem interdisciplinar envolvendo análise cienciométrica, modelagem de nicho climático, modelagem multi-escala de conectividade de habitats, modelos de regressão quasi-linear e de equações estruturais e sínteses de conhecimento. O capítulo 1 apresenta faz a revisão sistemática dos estudos de genética de conservação do elefante africano de savana e discute os principais eixos de pesquisa, as populações de elefantes envolvidas e as principais linhas de pesquisa abordadas. O capítulo 2 apresenta a modelagem da resposta do nicho climático em função de alterações climáticas multi-temporais e determina o potencial de conectividade entre os habitats remanescentes de elefantes e o capítulo 3 apresenta a interação entre indicadores ambientais, socioeconômicos e de governança para explicar a abundância de elefantes em África, tomando como base nas mais recentes estimativas da IUCN. O quarto capítulo discute os principais desafios associados à introdução de elefantes africanos como estratégia para a recuperação de funções ecológicas perdidas com a extinção da megafauna no Pleistoceno e o quinto capítulo, que faz de conclusão, apresenta a síntese dos desafios e oportunidades para a conservação dos elefantes africanos.
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Antunes, Nicolas. « Application d'algorithmes prédictifs à l'identification de niches écoculturelles des populations du passé : approche ethnoarchéologique ». Thesis, Bordeaux, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015BORD0173/document.
Texte intégralRésumé :
La géographie des groupes humains résulte d’événements historiques culturels et environnementaux. Notre démarche consiste à identifier des relations cultures/environnements dans des populations actuelles ou historiques bien documentées pour ensuite déceler l’éventuelle présence de phénomènes similaires dans des populations anciennes dont seuls les vestiges archéologiques sont connus. Après avoir passé en revue différents concepts permettant de décrire l’espace écologique occupé par une espèce (ou une population déterminée par un trait spécifique), nous déduisons que le concept de niche est idéal pour mesurer les facteurs environnementaux qui peuvent influencer l’établissement d’une culture en un lieu à une période donnée. Afin d’apprécier les distributions géographiques potentielles de cultures du présent et du passé, nous utilisons la modélisation de niches écoculturelles (ECNM). L’ECNM utilise des algorithmes prédictifs ainsi que des données d’occurrences et environnementales afin d’examiner les possibles influences des facteurs environnementaux dans les trajectoires évolutives des cultures. Nous présentons des résultats issus d’une optimisation de l’ECNM qui consiste à obtenir des données environnementales à très hautes résolutions spatiale et temporelle puis à combiner des prédictions de niche en tenant compte des performances des différents algorithmes prédictifs utilisés. La validité de la méthode que nous proposons est assurée par la fiabilité des occurrences que nous utilisons dans nos référentiels actualiste et historique. Enfin l’analyse statistique de plusieurs niches contemporaines, ou se succédant dans plusieurs phases climatiques, nous permet de les positionner dans l’espace écologique et de discuter de diversité culturelle, de risque écologique, de compétition, de dynamique évolutive et de peuplementThe geographic distribution of human populations is the result of both historical contingency and environmental factors. This study identifies culture-environment relations for well-documented present-day and historic populations in order to evaluate whether the same phenomena operated inprehistoric contexts, which are only known from archaeological sites. After reviewing the different concepts used to describe the ecological space occupied by a species (or specific population), it is shown that the niche concept is well-suited for identifying and measuring environmental factors that can influence the distribution of a culture at a particular place and time. In order to better understand the potential distributions of present and past cultures, this study employs the method known aseco-cultural niche modeling (ECNM). ECNM uses predictive algorithms along with occurrence and environmental data in order to examine the possible influences of environmental factors on cultural trajectories. The results presented here are derived from an optimized ECNM approach that permits one to obtain high-resolution environmental data, and that also combines niche predictions by taking into account the performance of the various employed predictive algorithms.The effectiveness of this approach is ensured by the use of reliable occurrence data for both the present-day and historic case studies. Finally, statistical evaluations of multiple contemporaneous niches, as well as successive ones across multiple climatic phases, allow them to be placed in ecological space and examined with respect to cultural diversity, ecological risk, competition, and evolutionary and population dynamics
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Coetzee, Bernard W. T. « Implications of global change for important bird areas in South Africa ». Diss., University of Pretoria, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/2263/29591.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The Important Bird Areas (IBAs) network of BirdLife International aims to identify sites that are essential for the long-term conservation of the world’s avifauna. A number of global change events have the potential to negatively affect, either directly or indirectly, most bird species, biodiversity in general and associated ecological processes in these areas identified as IBAs. To assist conservation decisions, I assessed a suite of ten landscape scale anthropogenic pressures to 115 Important Bird Areas (IBAs) in South Africa, both those currently placing pressures on IBAs and those that constitute likely future vulnerability to transformation. These threats are combined with irreplaceability, a frequently used measure of conservation importance, to identify the suite of IBAs which are high priority sites for conservation interventions: those with high irreplaceability and are highly vulnerable to anthropogenic threats. A total of 22 (19%) of the South African IBAs are highly irreplaceable and are highly vulnerable to at least some of the pressures assessed. Afforestation, current and potential future patterns of alien plant invasions affect the largest number of highly irreplaceable IBAs. Only 9% of the area of highly irreplaceable IBAs is formally protected. A total of 81 IBAs (71%) are less than 5% degraded or transformed. This result, together with seven highly irreplaceable IBAs found outside of formally protected areas with lower human densities than expected by chance provides an ideal opportunity for conservation interventions. However, all the pressures assessed vary geographically, with no discernible systematic pattern that might assist conservation managers to design effective regional interventions. Furthermore, I used the newly emerging technique of ensemble forecasting to assess the impact of climate change on endemic birds in relation to the IBAs network. I used 50 endemic species, eight bioclimatic envelope models, four climate change models and two methods of transformation to presence or absence, which essentially creates 2400 projections for the years 2070-2100. The consensual projection shows that climate change impacts are very likely to be severe. The majority of species (62%) lose climatically suitable space and 99% of grid cells show species turnover. Five species lose at least 85% of climatically suitable space. The current locations of the South African Important Bird Areas network is very likely ineffective to conserve endemic birds under climate change along a “business a usual” emissions scenario. Many IBAs show species loss (41%; 47 IBAs) and species turnover (77%; 95 IBAs). However, an irreplaceability analysis identified mountainous regions in South Africa as irreplaceable refugia for endemic species, and some of these regions are existing IBAs. These IBAs should receive renewed conservation attention, as they have the potential to substantially contribute to a flexible conservation network under realistic scenarios of climate change. Considering all the global change threats assessed in this study, the Amersfoort-Bethal-Carolina District and the Grassland Biosphere Reserve (IBA codes: SA018; SA020) are the key IBAs in South Africa for conservation prioritisation.Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2008.
Zoology and Entomology
unrestricted
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Andrade, Thiago. « Évolution spatiotemporelle de la diversité et du fonctionnement d'une guilde de parasitoïdes ». Thesis, Rennes 1, 2013. http://www.theses.fr/2013REN1S124/document.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Cette thèse porte sur l’analyse des dimensions spatiale et temporelle du fonctionnement et de la diversité taxonomique et fonctionnelle d’une guilde. Au sein d’une guilde, les espèces exploitent un même type de ressources; pour cette raison, les niches écologiques fondamentales des membres d’une guilde sont similaires et une relation de compétition interspécifique se met en place si la ressource partagée est limitante. Quatre questions principales sur le fonctionnement d’une guilde ont été abordées : (1) à quelles échelles spatio-temporelles se structurent la guilde et les ressources exploitées, (2) quelles sont les influences respectives des filtres environnementaux et des interactions interspécifiques sur les traits fonctionnels des membres de la guilde, (3) quelle est la stratégie d’exploitation de ressources d’un membre de la guilde face à une faible disponibilité de ressources et (4) quel est l’impact du contexte climatique sur la structure d’une guilde et de son réseau trophique, et sur le degré de spécialisation écologique des espèces de la guilde sur la ressource. Le modèle biologique de cette étude a été une guilde de parasitoïdes de pucerons de céréales (Hymenoptera : Braconidae : Aphidiinae). Ces parasitoïdes s’attaquent aux pucerons (Homoptera : Aphididae) inféodés aux céréales dans les agroécosystèmes. Les variations d’abondance relative des parasitoïdes et de leurs hôtes ont été importantes aux échelles interrégionale et interannuelle, mais très faibles à l’échelle intra-régionale. La divergence des traits fonctionnels des parasitoïdes s’est maintenue sur trois régions et deux années, et le contexte local a influencé les traits de la guilde dans son ensemble. Pendant la saison hivernale, une période marquée par une faible densité de pucerons, le parasitoïde Aphidius rhopalosiphi a présenté des stratégies contrastées pour maximiser sa fitness en exploitant les hôtes Sitobion avenae et Rhopalosiphum padi, mais une forte spécialisation écologique sur le terrain a été observée en présence d’une espèce compétitrice : Aphidius avenae. Cette présence a pu être corrélée à une hausse des températures hivernalesThis thesis is an analysis of the spatial and temporal dimensions of the functioning and taxonomic and functional diversity of a guild. In a guild, species exploit the same type of resources; consequently, fundamental ecological niches of guild members are similar and an interspecific competitive relationship is established if shared resources are limiting. Four main questions on the functioning of a guild are addressed: (1) the spatiotemporal scales to which guilds the guild and its exploited resources are structures, (2) the respective weight of environmental filtering and interspecific interactions on the configuration of realized niches of guild members, (3) the strategy of resource exploitation in a guild member facing low resource availability and (4) the impact of climatic context on the structure of a guild and its food web, and the degree of specialisation on resources. The biological model chosen in this study was a cereal aphid parasitoid guild (Hymenoptera: Braconidae: Aphidiinae). Those parasitoids attack aphids (Homoptera: Aphididae) in agroecosystems, which are anthropised environments marked by high disturbance rates and in which host resources are variable in density and in quality. Relative abundance variations in parasitoids and in their hosts were considerable at interregional and interannual scales, but weak at the intra-regional scale. Functional trait divergence in parasitoids was maintained across three regions and two years, and regional and annual environmental contexts influenced guild traits as a whole. In winter, a period marked by low aphid density, the parasitoid Aphidius rhopalosiphi presented contrasted strategies to maximise fitness whilst exploiting Sitobion avenae and Rhopalosiphum padi hosts, but a high degree of ecological specialisation in the field was observed in the presence of a competitive species, Aphidius avenae. This presence was correlated to an increase in winter temperatures
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Buisson, Laetitia. « Poissons des rivières françaises et changement climatique : impacts sur la distribution des espèces et incertitudes des projections ». Thesis, Toulouse, INPT, 2009. http://www.theses.fr/2009INPT005A/document.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Les changements climatiques et leurs impacts sur la biodiversité font aujourd'hui l'objet d'une attention croissante de la part de la communauté scientifique et des gestionnaires des écosystèmes naturels. En effet, le climat influence la biologie et l'écologie des espèces animales et végétales, depuis leur physiologie jusqu'à leur répartition. Les modifications climatiques pourraient donc avoir des répercussions importantes sur les espèces et les assemblages. Au sein des écosystèmes aquatiques continentaux, les poissons de rivière sont des organismes incapables de réguler leur température corporelle et soumis à une variabilité hydrologique importante ainsi qu'à de fortes pressions anthropiques. Leur réponse aux modifications du climat actuelles et à venir a pourtant été encore peu abordée. L'objectif de ce travail de thèse est donc d'évaluer les impacts potentiels du changement climatique sur les poissons des rivières françaises, et plus particulièrement sur la distribution des espèces et la structure des assemblages. Des données fournies par l'Office National de l'Eau et des Milieux Aquatiques ainsi qu'une approche de modélisation basée sur les niches écologiques des espèces (i.e., modèles de distribution) ont été utilisées. Différentes sources d'incertitude ont également été testées dans une approche d'ensembles afin de prendre en compte la variabilité entre les impacts projetés et fournir ainsi une évaluation robuste de ces impacts. La première partie de ce travail a consisté en l'identification des principaux déterminants environnementaux qui structurent la répartition spatiale des espèces de poisson au sein des réseaux hydrographiques. Globalement, il apparaît qu'une combinaison de facteurs climatiques et de variables décrivant l'habitat local et la position des habitats au sein des réseaux hydrographiques est importante pour expliquer la distribution actuelle des espèces. De plus, les espèces ont toutes des réponses différentes aux facteurs de l'environnement. Dans un second temps, nous avons mis en évidence que le choix de la méthode statistique de modélisation de la niche écologique est crucial, les patrons actuels et futurs de distribution prédits étant fortement contrastés selon la méthode de modélisation considérée. Cette dernière s'avère même être la principale source d'incertitude dans les projections futures, bien plus encore que les modèles climatiques de circulation générale et les scénarios d'émission de gaz à effet de serre. La variabilité entre les prédictions issues de plusieurs techniques de modélisation peut être prise en compte par une approche de consensus. Un modèle consensuel basé sur la valeur moyenne de l'ensemble de prédictions est capable de prédire correctement la distribution actuelle des espèces et la composition des assemblages. Nous avons donc choisi de retenir cette approche pour évaluer au mieux les impacts potentiels du changement climatique sur les poissons des rivières françaises à la fin du 21ème siècle. Nous avons montré que la majorité des espèces de poisson pourrait être affectée par les futures modifications du climat. Seules quelques espèces d'eau froide (e.g. truite fario, chabot) pourraient restreindre leur distribution aux parties les plus apicales des réseaux hydrographiques. Au contraire, les espèces tolérant des températures plus élevées pourraient coloniser de nouveaux habitats et étendre ainsi leur répartition. Ces modifications de la distribution des espèces pourraient conduire à un réarrangement des assemblages au niveau taxonomique et fonctionnel. Une augmentation de la diversité locale et de la similarité régionale (i.e., homogénéisation) sont ainsi prédites simultanément. L'ensemble de ces résultats apporte donc des éléments sur la compréhension de la distribution des poissons d'eau douce et sur les conséquences du changement climatique qui peuvent être envisagées. Ce travail fournit ainsi une base aux acteurs de la gestion de la biodiversité afin d'initier des mesures de conservation concrètes. De plus, les considérations méthodologiques développées dans cette thèse sont une contribution importante à l'amélioration des projections issues de modèles statistiques de distribution et à la quantification de leur incertitudeClimate change and its impact on biodiversity are receiving increasing attention from scientists and people managing natural ecosystems. Indeed, climate has a major influence on the biology and ecology of fauna and flora, from physiology to distribution. Climate change may thus have major consequences on species and assemblages. Among freshwater ecosystems, stream fish have no physiological ability to regulate their body temperature and they have to cope with streams' hydrological variability and strong anthropogenic pressures. Yet their response to current and future climate change has been poorly studied. The aim of this PhD thesis is to assess the potential impact of climate change on fish in French streams, mainly on species distribution and assemblages' structure. Data provided by the Office National de l'Eau et des Milieux Aquatiques combined with a modelling approach based on species' ecological niche (i.e., distribution models) have been used. Several sources of uncertainty have also been considered in an ensemble modeling framework in order to account for the variability between projected impacts and to provide reliable estimates of such impact. First, we have identified the main environmental factors that determine the spatial distribution of fish species within river networks. Overall, it appears that a combination of both climatic variables and variables describing the local habitat and its position within the river network is important to explain the current species distribution. Moreover, each fish species responded differently to the environmental factors. Second, we have highlighted that the choice of the statistical method used to model the fish ecological niche is crucial given that the current and future patterns of distribution predicted by different statistical methods vary significantly. The statistical method appears to be the main source of uncertainty, resulting in more variability in projections than the global circulation models and greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The variability between predictions from several statistical methods can be taken into account by a consensus approach. Consensual predictions based on the computation of the average of the whole predictions ensemble have achieved accurate predictions of the current species distribution and assemblages' composition. We have therefore selected this approach to assess the potential impacts of climate change on fish in French streams at the end of the 21st century with the highest degree of confidence. We have found that most fish species could be sensitive to the future climate modifications. Only a few cold-water species (i.e., brown trout, bullhead) could restrict their distribution to the most upstream parts of river networks. On the contrary, cool- and warm-water fish species could colonize many newly suitable habitats and expand strongly their distribution. These changes of species distribution could lead to a rearrangement of fish assemblages both at the taxonomic and functional levels. An increase in local diversity together with an increase in regional similarity (i.e., homogenization) are therefore expected. All these results bring new insights for the understanding of stream fish species distribution and expected consequences of climate change. This work thus provides biodiversity managers and conservationists with a basis to take efficient preservation measures. In addition, methodological developments considered in this PhD thesis are an important contribution to the improvements of projections by statistical models of species distribution and to the quantification of their uncertainty
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Bertelsmeier, Cleo. « Biologie des invasions de fourmis dans un contexte de changement climatique ». Thesis, Paris 11, 2013. http://www.theses.fr/2013PA112358/document.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Le changement climatique et les invasions biologiques sont parmi les plus grandes menaces de la biodiversité et leurs impacts pourraient augmenter jusqu’à la fin du siècle. Parmi les espèces envahissantes, les fourmis sont un groupe particulièrement néfaste dû à leurs impacts sur les espèces natives, les processus écosystémique, la santé, l’agriculture et l’économie. L’objectif de cette thèse était de prédire les invasions de fourmis – en particulier avec le changement climatique qui pourrait favoriser les invasions en éliminant des barrières thermiques. J’ai utilisé trois approches complémentaires afin d’étudier le potentiel de différentes espèces à envahir : des modèles de distribution, des expériences comportementales et l’analyses d’une base de données de traits écologiques. J’ai modélisé l’aire favorable pour 15 espèces de fourmis parmi les pires, à la fois globalement, par continents, et dans les 34 hotspots de biodiversité. La distribution potentielle de seulement cinq espèce est prédite de diminuer (jusqu’à 35.8%) avec le changement climatique et l’aire potentielle diminue pour la plupart des espèces jusqu’à 63.2%. Les hotspots d’invasions de fourmis se situaient surtout dans des régions tropicales et subtropicales et ils correspondent particulièrement aux hotspots de biodiversité. Contrairement à ce qui est généralement admis, le changement climatique et les invasions biologiques n’agiront pas de manière synergique pour les fourmis. Par contre, les invasions de fourmis resteront probablement un problème global majeur, en particuliers dans les zones où les hotspots de biodiversité et les hotspots d’invasion se superposent. Les modèles de distribution ont identifié de larges zones de recouvrement entre aires favorables de plusieurs espèces de fourmis envahissantes. Dans le futur, ces espèces pourraient arriver simultanément dans les mêmes régions et entrer en compétition. Dans une série d’expériences, j’ai testé les différences comportementales entre 7 espèces de fourmis envahissantes (Anoplolepis gracilipes, Paratrechina longicornis, Myrmica rubra, Linepithema humile, Lasius neglectus, Wasmannia auropunctata et Pheidole megacephala). J’ai découvert deux stratégies comportementales différentes. Les interactions au niveau de la colonie ont suivi des processus démographiques plus complexes. De plus, j’ai mis au point deux expériences pour tester la capacité des fourmis envahissantes à explorer un nouvel espace et à exploiter des ressources. J’ai trouvé des différences significatives entre espèces et leur capacité à dominer par interférence comportementale était négativement corrélée à leurs capacités à découvrir et exploiter des ressources. Cette série d’expériences suggère que les ‘mécanismes’ d’invasion sont plus complexes que ce qui est généralement suggéré et que différentes espèces pourraient utiliser des stratégies comportementales différentes. Étant donné qu’il existe plus de 250 espèces de fourmis exotiques, il serait intéressant de pouvoir identifier à l’avance des futurs envahisseurs potentiels. Afin d’identifier des traits associés au caractère envahissant des fourmis, j’ai mis en place une base de données qui contient 2193 espèces de fourmis et 24 traits écologiques. J’ai effectué une analyse préliminaire de différences de traits entre fourmis natives et envahissantes qui a montré qu’il existe clairement des groupement distincts de natives et envahissantes, avec les espèces exotiques au milieu. Ces résultats pourraient servir de base pour construire un modèle prédictif des invasions de fourmis. Ces différentes approches (modèles, expériences, base de données) sont complémentaires car elles s’intéressent à des aspects différents du futur des invasions de fourmis qui sera vraisemblablement fortement influencé par le changement climatique. Le pires envahisseurs de demain ne seront probablement pas les même qu’aujourd’hui et les zones les plus à risque pourraient changer égalementClimate change and biological invasions are both among the greatest threats to biodiversity and their impacts might increase by the end of the century. Among invasive species, ants are a prominent group due to their negative impacts on native species, ecosystem processes, human and animal health, agro-ecosystems and the economy. The objective of this thesis was to forecast future ant invasions – especially in the light of on-going climate change, which is generally thought to favour invasive species by removing thermal barriers. I used three complementary approaches to study the potential of different ant species to invade in the future: species distribution modelling, behavioural experiments and the analysis of a database of ecological traits. I modelled suitable area for 15 of the worst invasive ant species, both currently and with predicted climate change, globally, regionally and within the world’s 34 biodiversity hotspots. Surprisingly, the potential distribution of only five species was predicted to increase (up to 35.8%) with climate change, with most declining by up to 63.3%. The ant invasion hotspots are predominantly in tropical and subtropical regions of South America, Africa, Asia and Oceanic islands, and particularly correspond with biodiversity hotspots. Contrary to general expectations, climate change and biological invasions will not systematically act synergistically for ants. In addition, I found that the impacts of climate change can change over time and even reverse the trend of the impact (i.e., an increase instead of a decrease or vice versa). However, ant invasions will likely remain as a major global problem, especially where invasion hotspots coincide with biodiversity hotspots. The species distribution models have identified large potentially overlapping distributions of several invasive ants. In the future, these species may arrive simultaneously in the same regions and compete with each other. In a series of experiments, I tested behavioural differences among 7 highly invasive ant species (Anoplolepis gracilipes, Paratrechina longicornis, Myrmica rubra, Linepithema humile, Lasius neglectus, Wasmannia auropunctata and Pheidole megacephala). I discovered two different behavioural strategies among invasive ants. Interactions at the colony level, exhibited more complex demographic processes and more variability. Further, I investigated resource competition and differences in resource exploitation. I found significant differences among species, with competitive abilities that were negatively correlated with behavioural dominance. This series of experiments suggests that the ‘mechanisms’ of invasiveness are more complex than previously thought and that different invasive ant species may use different behavioural strategies. Since there are more than 250 exotic species of ants, it would be interesting to identify potential future invaders. In order to identify traits associated with invasiveness in ants, I set up a database with 2193 ant species and 24 ecological characteristics. I performed a preliminary analysis of trait differences between native and invasive ants that shows clearly different clusters of invasive and native species, with exotic species in between. These results could be used as a basis to construct a predictive model of future ant invasions. The different methods used (models, experiments, database) are complementary in that they explore different aspects of the future ant invasions which are likely to be influenced by on-going climate change. The worst invaders of tomorrow may not be the same as today and similarly, areas most at risk are likely to change
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Bledsoe, April Dawn. « A Tale of Two Species : Black-tailed and White-tailed Prairie Dog Biogeography from the Last Interglacial to 2070 ». Digital Commons @ East Tennessee State University, 2020. https://dc.etsu.edu/etd/3764.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Ecological niche models (ENMs) were created for White-tailed and Black-tailed prairie dogs and projected into the Last Interglacial (LI), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and mid-Holocene (mid-H) to discern possible past suitable habitat for both species. Additionally, ENMs were projected into the future year 2070 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 to discern how climate change may affect future habitat suitability. Kernel density estimations, minimum convex polygons, and median distribution centers of White-tailed and Black-tailed occurrence records were examined between time-periods to discern the effects of anthropogenic westward expansion on both species’ distributions. Current ENMs were constructed from commonly used bioclimatic variables and non-traditional variables (including EPA level III Ecoregions) for White-tailed and Black-tailed prairie dogs for variable comparison performance in ENMs. Results indicate that both species respond to climate change and each occupy distinct ecological niches. Biogeographical changes coincident with westward expansion remain unknown.
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Russell, Vanessa. « Identifying Environmental Factors Driving Differences in Climatic Niche Overlap in Peromyscus Mice ». Miami University / OhioLINK, 2019. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=miami1565722438217428.
Texte intégral
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Martins, Fernando de Farias. « Preferência de umidade na oviposição de grilos de serrapilheira (orthoptera : grylloidea) : experimentos de campo e laboratório ». Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná, 2017. http://tede.unioeste.br/handle/tede/3478.
Texte intégralRésumé :
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES
For species that do not exhibit parental care such as oviparous insects, choosing a favorable oviposition site is of utmost importance for brood success. Niche theory predicts that crickets should show a bell-shaped oviposition response to substrate humidity. However, at least one lab experiment with mole crickets (Orthoptera: Gryllotalpoidea) indicated a linear oviposition responses to substrate humidity. The house cricket Acheta domesticus (Orthoptera: Grylloidea) also shows a linear juvenile body growth response to substrate humidity, which suggests a positive relationship between humidity and oviposition preference. We evaluated the relationship between oviposition frequency and substrate humidity in forest litter- dwelling species, primarily composed of Ubiquepuella telytokous, using field experiments. We also tested oviposition responses of U. telytokous to substrate humidity in a laboratory experiment. We offered oviposition substrates that varied in humidity from zero percent to maximum substrate water absorption capacity. Oviposition preference was estimated using presence or absence of eggs as a binary response variable, adjusted logistic regression (GAMM) was used to test for non-linear responses, and GLMs were used to test linear responses. We found that oviposition probability increased linearly with substrate humidity for U. telytokous in both field and lab experiments. Our results demonstrate the importance of substrate humidity as an ecological niche requirement for this species. This work bolsters knowledge of litter cricket life history association with humidity, and suggests that litter crickets may be particularly threatened by changes in climate that favor habitat drying.
Para espécies que não apresentam cuidados parentais, tais como insetos ovíparos, a escolha de um local de oviposição favorável é de extrema importância para o sucesso da prole. A teoria do nicho prevê que a oviposição de grilos deve mostrar uma resposta em forma de sino à umidade do substrato. Entretanto, pelo menos um experimento de laboratório com paquinhas (Orthoptera: Gryllotalpoidea) indicou uma resposta de oviposição linear em relação a umidade do substrato. O grilo doméstico Acheta domesticus (Orthoptera: Grylloidea) também apresenta um crescimento corporal dos juvenis linear em relação a umidade do substrato, o que sugere uma relação positiva entre umidade e preferência de oviposição. Aqui testamos a relação entre a frequência de oviposição e a umidade do substrato, em espécies de grilos de serrapilheira florestal, primariamente compostas Ubiquepuella telytokous, utilizando experimentos de campo. Também testamos as respostas de oviposição de U. telytokous em experimentos de laboratório. Oferecemos substratos de oviposção que variaram a umidade de zero porcento até a capacidade máxima de absorção do substrato. A preferência de oviposição foi estimada utilizando presença ou ausência de ovos como uma variável resposta binária, regressão logística ajustada (GAMM) para testar respostas não lineares, e GLMs para testar respostas lineares. Verificamos que a probabilidade de oviposição aumenta linearmente com a umidade do substrato para U. telytokous, nos experimentos de campo e laboratório. Nossos resultados demonstram a importância da umidade do substrato como requisito de nicho ecológico para Ubiquepuella telytokous. Este trabalho reforça o conhecimento da associação de história de vida de grilos com a umidade, e sugere que esses organismos podem ser particularmente ameaçados por mudanças climáticas que tornam habitats áridos.
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Kaimuddin, Awaluddin Halirin. « Impact du changement climatique sur la distribution des populations de poissons. Approche par SIG, modèles et scénarios d'évolution du climat ». Thesis, Brest, 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016BRES0039/document.
Texte intégralRésumé :
La compréhension des interactions liant la répartition des espèces, la biodiversité, les habitats marins et le changement climatique est nécessaire voire fondamentale pour la mise en oeuvre d’une gestion efficace de la conservation, par exemple la mise en place d’aires marines protégées. Dans cette étude, nous avons travaillé sur l’évolution de richesse de 89 espèces de poissons notées «rares» ou «exotiques» (observées en dehors de leur aire de répartition connue) lié au changement climatique. Nous avons modélisé et prédit leur distribution saisonnière par le modèle SIG en fonction de leurs niches écologiques (déterminée dans cette étude). En superposant tous les modèles en fonction du temps, cette approche permet d’identifier des zones d’occupation préférentielle de forte biodiversité (hotspots). La méthode offre une alternative pour mesurer la richesse d’espèces de façon saisonnière dans des zones peu connues, et de suivre leur mouvement au cours de temps, puis avoir information de base sur l’efficacité de positionnement des aires marines protégés liées à ces zones hotspots. La zone d’étude s’est située dans trois grands écosystèmes marins : le courant des Canaries, le plateau sud de l’Atlantique Européen et les mers celtiques. La région centrale est une zone de transition (entre les eaux tropicales et tempérés) connue pour sa sensibilité aux effets du changement climatique. De 1982 à 2012, la SST augmente constamment au fil du temps, avec des tendances et des magnitudes qui varient selon l’écosystème. Une augmentation du nombre d'espèces dans un écosystème dans une période a été généralement suivie par une tendance à la baisse ou à la hausse dans des écosystèmes adjacents. Les niches écologiques des espèces étudiées ont été estimées par l’extraction des valeurs environnementales à l’échelle mondiale au point d'occurrence au moment de l'observation. Les résultats de niches sont cohérents avec ceux obtenus à partir d’études observationnelles ou expérimentales. La flexibilité du modèle SIG nous a permis de suivre l'évolution saisonnière de distribution des espèces au fil du temps. En général, les espèces montrent une tendance à élargir leur distribution vers le nord, montrant l'effet du réchauffement de l'océan sur la distribution des poissons marins. L’approche de modèle peut être utilisée pour modéliser la distribution des espèces moins connues, ou dans des zones où les données d’occurrences sont peu nombreuses, ainsi que pour prédire le modèle de distribution future. L'analyse spatiale de la superficie des AMPs (Aires Marines Protégées) par pays appartenant à la zone d'étude, montre que le Royaume-Uni puis la France possèdent le plus grand nombre d'AMP ainsi que les superficies totales protégées les plus importantes. La fréquence à laquelle les AMPs (Aires Marines Protégées) sont touchées par les zones de hotspots est fortement influencée par les variations de l’environnement, les zones favorables évoluant alors au fil des saisons. Ainsi, il est important de prendre en compte les variations saisonnières pour la création des AMPs afin de préserver les capacités adaptative des espèces soumises au changement globalUnderstanding connectivities among species distributions, biodiversity, marine habitats and climate change is necessary for the design of an effective conservation management, such as in the implementation of marine protected area (MPA). In this study, we observed the richness of 89 "rare" or "exotic" fish species (observed outside their known distribution range) related to climate change. We modeled and predicted their seasonal distributions according to the species ecological niches (determined in this study) using the GIS model. Superposing the models of all species using GIS, we determined the preferential zones or zones of high biodiversity (hotspots) over time. The GIS approach offers an alternative to measure seasonal species richness in poor-data areas. This approach allowed also species track movement over time. This information could be then used to measure the effectiveness of MPA positioning related to the hotspot areas. Our study area covers a wide latitudinal range of the Eastern Atlantic waters, from the warm tropical/subtropical waters to the temperate waters. This area is located in three large marine ecosystems: the Canary current, the South European Atlantic Shelf and the Celtic Seas. The transitional zone in the central region has well known for its sensitivity to the detection of climate change. From 1982 to 2012, the SST in all of studied ecosystems has increased consistently over time, with magnitude and trend varied among ecosystems. The change of number of species in each decadal period differed among ecosystems. Increasing number of species in an ecosystem was generally followed by decreasing trend in adjacent ecosystems. Species ecological niches were obtained by extracting the environmental values in the location of species occurrence at the time of observation. The environmental data and the occurrence records used were at global scale, and the methods yields coherent results with the results obtained from observational studies. The flexibility of GIS Model used in this study allowed us to follow the evolution of species seasonal distribution over time. Generally, most of the studied species showed a northbound trend in their distribution. These northbound tendencies were more evident in the middle region, confirming the effect of global warming in shifting marine species distribution. This approach provides an alternative of measuring seasonal richness of poor-known species and/or modeling in poor-data areas. The results present a complete picture of predictive number of species in an area over time. MPAs superficial analysis by country (countries lying in the study area) showed that UK has the highest number of MPA and the largest protected areas, following by France and Mauritania. Frequencies of the MPAs touched by the hotspot were strongly influenced by seasonal variations. Thus, considering seasonal variations in a conservation effort could preserve species adaptive variation under environmental changes. Overall, our works provide several alternative methods for species distribution studies and for studies poor-known species in data-poor area. The results provide evidences of ocean warming effect in shifting marine fish distribution
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Comont, Richard Francis. « Modelling the impact of an alien invasion : Harmonia axyridis in Britain ». Thesis, University of Oxford, 2014. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:08de972b-1c12-4862-bb7d-95d614a9e011.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Harmonia axyridis is a ladybird native to Asia, but introduced widely as a biocontrol agent. It is invasive and detrimental to native species in North America, which meant its arrival in Britain was met with concern. Establishment was seen as an opportunity to track the spread of an invasive alien species (IAS) whilst also monitoring impacts on native species. The aims of this thesis were to examine the responses of native British ladybirds to the arrival of H. axyridis, to establish the effect of the IAS on native ladybirds when compared to other drivers, and to investigate the possible facilitation of the H. axyridis invasion by natural enemy release. Modelling ladybird distributions with life-history and resource-use traits found that species predatory on a wide range of prey families had larger range sizes than those which ate fewer prey types. This suggests that the wide diet breadth of the IAS is likely to have played a critical role in the species’ rapid spread. Dietary niche overlap between H. axyridis and native ladybirds showed positive correlation with declines of native ladybirds. This indicates that the IAS is playing an important role, but the significance of urbanisation suggests habitat destruction is also significant. Abundance of H. axyridis was influenced by habitat type and aphid abundance, but not by the native ladybird community, suggesting the spread of the IAS will not be slowed by biotic resistance. Harmonia axyridis is attacked by native parasitoids, but at a much lower rate than is the native Coccinella septempunctata, in line with natural-enemy release theory. There was no evidence of attack rate increasing with time since arrival in an area. Overall, H. axyridis is an extremely successful IAS, with detrimental effects on native ladybirds which are likely to continue.
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Guimaraes, Tulio Max de Oliveira. « Modelos de nicho ecológico, registros fósseis e o pressuposto de equilíbrio das distribuições das espécies com o clima ». Universidade Federal de Goiás, 2014. http://repositorio.bc.ufg.br/tede/handle/tede/4690.
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES
Understand how species are spatially distributed has been exhaustively discussed in ecology over the last decades. Recently, frameworks based on Ecological Niche Models (ENM) have emerged to avoid problems related to the lack of species geographical information, once it identify which environmental suitable conditions of geographic space enable the persistence of species. Recently this approach has become a significant component in Systematic Conservation Planning, helping managers to select better areas to create reserves. Several factors limit the fundamental niche of species and poor geographical information about species distribution may lead to be an underestimation of suitable conditions that one specie occur,, revealing an non-equilibrium with climate. Thus, using good fossil records to construct ecological niche models can be a better way to evaluate and improve ENM predictions and it allows us to estimate other suitable conditions not seen before. Thereby, our aim was to investigate if ENMs built for Mauritia flexuosa, and Tapirus terrestris improve with the addition of fossil information. So, different ENMs were built using, first, current records and, second, using different proportions of fossil data. The results showed that species closer to equilibrium with climate (M. flexuosa) had an improvement in model’s performance with the addition of fossil records, while species with higher non-equilibrium (T. terrestris) decreased the model’s performance.
Entender como as espécies estão espacialmente distribuídas pelo planeta tem sido um assunto exaustivamente discutido em ecologia ao longo das últimas décadas. Recentemente, abordagens baseadas nos Modelos de Nicho Ecológico têm surgido com o intuito de eliminar problemas relacionados à lacuna de informação geográfica sobre as espécies, uma vez que identifica locais no espaço geográfico que apresenta as condições ambientais favoráveis à persistência das mesmas. Vários fatores limitam o nicho fundamental das espécies e informações geográficas enviesadas acerca de sua distribuição podem levar a uma subestimativa das condições adequadas à ocorrência, revelando um desequilíbrio com o clima. Deste modo, a utilização de registros fósseis na construção dos Modelos de Nicho Ecológico pode ser uma maneira de melhorar as predições dos modelos, já que adiciona novas informações ambientais que não haviam sido encontradas atualmente. Deste modo, nosso objetivo foi investigar se os Modelos de Nicho Ecológico construídos para Mauritia flexuosa e Tapirus terrestris apresentaram melhora no poder preditivo pela adição de informação fóssil. Para isso, foram construídos diferentes modelos utilizando dados atuais apenas e modelos utilizando tanto informação atual quanto informação fóssil, em diferentes porcentagens. Através de uma Análise de Variância Fatorial, medimos se a adição de informação fóssil apresentava melhora significativa no poder preditivo dos modelos. Nossos resultados mostram que quando há pouca variação na informação ambiental adicionada (M. flexuosa), os modelos apresentam uma melhora significativa no poder preditivo, ao passo que para aqueles dados com maior variação (T. terrestris) o efeito é inverso. Isso se deve pela variação dos erros de omissão e comissão gerados durante o processo de modelagem.
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Scheppler, Hannah B. « Modeling the Climatic Niche of Wild Carica Papaya ». Miami University / OhioLINK, 2019. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=miami157490469591439.
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Legrand, Brice. « Impact des changements climatiques sur la biodiversité marine tropicale : le cas des oiseaux marins de l’océan Indien occidental ». Thesis, La Réunion, 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016LARE0043.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Les changements climatiques affecteront les écosystèmes terrestres et marins mais les conséquences en termes de répartition globale de la biodiversité sont encore mal connues. Les études portant sur la sélection des habitats des prédateurs marins pour leurs recherches alimentaire et leurs évolutions provoquées par le réchauffement climatique sont en plein développement actuellement. Les suivis télémétriques apportent des informations précieuses sur la variabilité spatio-temporelle de la distribution en mer des prédateurs marins. L’ensemble des problématiques étant très importantes, nous avons décidé de nous focaliser sur les oiseaux marins. Le premier objectif de ce projet de thèse est d’étudier, la distribution et la sélection des habitats d’alimentation des oiseaux marins tropicaux pendant leurs phases de reproduction et pendant leurs migrations. Afin de caractériser les habitats d’un point de vue abiotique. Le deuxième objectif de ce projet de thèse est d’utiliser les scénarios d’évolution des habitats océaniques produits par GIEC pour simuler, à l’aide des modèles d’habitats, l’évolution temporelle de la distribution des habitats favorables. Le troisième objectif de ce projet de thèse est d’utiliser les données de suivi disponibles d'identifier les « points chauds » de la biodiversité.Nous nous sommes intéressés, dans un premier temps, aux puffins du Pacifique. Plus particulièrement, nous avons étudié les variations entre les différentes colonies d’une même espèce, du point de vue de la distribution, de l’activité et de la sélection des habitats. Ensuite, nous avons étudié l'impact de l'évolution du changement climatique sur les habitats d'hivernage des Pétrels (Pterodroma baraui) de Barau, une espèce endémique de l'île de la Réunion. Nous avons construit des modèles de sélection des habitats. Ces modèles ont ensuite été utilisés pour prédire l’évolution des habitats d'hivernage à l’horizon 2100, en fonction de différents scénarios du GIEC. Enfin, Nous avons compilé les données de suivi disponibles sur les oiseaux marins, les tortues de mer et les mammifères marins pour étudier la répartition de la mégafaune marine dans l'océan Indien, et d'identifier les points chauds de haute densité et de haute diversité. Afin de mettre en place, à terme, des zones marines protégées. »Climate change will affect terrestrial and marine ecosystems, but the consequences in terms of global biodiversity distribution are still unclear. Studies about selection of marine habitats and trends caused by global warming are growing. The telemetric monitoring provide valuable information on the spatial and temporal variability on distribution of marine predators. All the issues are very important, we have decided to focus on seabirds. The first objective of this thesis project is to study the distribution and selection of foraging habitat of tropical seabirds during their reproductive phase and during their migrations. To characterize the habitat of an abiotic point of view. The second objective of this thesis project is to use scenarios for ocean habitats produced by IPCC to simulate, using habitat models, the temporal evolution of the distribution of suitable habitat. The third objective of this thesis project is to use the available monitoring data to identify "hotspots" of biodiversity. We looked, at first, the puffins Pacific. More particularly, we studied the variations between the different colonies of the same species, from the viewpoint of the distribution, activity and habitat selection. Then we studied the impact of the evolution of climate change on wintering habitat of Barau’s Petrels (Pterodroma baraui). We built habitat selection models. These models were then used to predict the evolution of wintering habitat in 2100, according to different IPCC scenarios. Finally, we have compiled the available telemetry data on seabirds, sea turtles and marine mammals to study the distribution of marine megafauna in the Indian Ocean, and to identify hotspots of high density and high diversity. To establish, in time, protected marine areas
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Moreira, Matthew Owen. « Effects of climatic niche evolution on the speciation of lacertids (Squamata : Lacertidae) ». Master's thesis, Universidade de Aveiro, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10773/18552.
Texte intégralRésumé :
Mestrado em Ecologia AplicadaA evolução do nicho climático é um dos principais fatores a moldar as dinâmicas da diversidade de muitos grupos de plantas e animais. Esta relação não revela um padrão generalizável ao longo de regiões e grupos taxonómicos. De facto, os efeitos da evolução do nicho climático na taxa de diversificação poderão ser idiossincráticos. Contudo, algumas limitações nos métodos que são usualmente usados para testar tal relação poderão condicionar o estudo destes eventos macroevolutivos. Aqui, pela primeira vez, testamos a relação entre a evolução do nicho climático e taxas de especiação num grupo taxonómico de répteis terrestres (Squamata: Lacertidae). Nós combinamos numa perspetiva bayesiana uma nova abordagem que tem em conta a heterogeneidade da taxa ao longo da história evolutiva de um grupo taxonómico e modelos não lineares. Nós mostramos que a variação da taxa de especiação de lacertídeos está relacionada com a evolução de ambas a posição do nicho e a largura do nicho relativamente à temperatura, e que esta relação é melhor explicada por um modelo quadrático. Para além disso, os nossos resultados sugerem que poderá haver um limite de variação do nicho climático para o qual a especiação não aumenta e começa a desacelerar. Especialização na largura do nicho parece atuar como o fator limitante que impede o aumento da especiação. Estes resultados poderão ser relevantes num cenário de alterações climáticas, e poderão contribuir na interpretação de tendências no futuro relativamente à diversificação de lagartos.
The evolution of the climatic niche is one of the main factors shaping diversity dynamics in many groups of plants and animals. This relationship does not show a pervasive pattern across regions and clades. In fact, the effects of the evolution of climatic niche on diversification rates might be idiosyncratic. However, some limitations in the methods that are commonly used to test such relationship may undermine the study of these macroevolutionary events. Here, for the first time, we examine the relationship between climatic niche evolution and rates of speciation in a clade of terrestrial reptiles (Squamata: Lacertidae). We combine in a Bayesian framework a new approach that accounts for rate heterogeneity across the evolutionary history of a clade and non-linear models. We show that the variation in the speciation rate of lacertids is related to the evolution of both niche position and niche breadth for temperature, and that a quadratic model best predicts this relationship. Moreover, our results suggest that there might be a threshold of variation in climatic niche from which speciation can no longer increase and starts to slow down. Specialization in niche breadth seems to act as the limiting factor that prevents speciation to increase. These results may be relevant under a climate change scenario, and may contribute to interpreting future trends regarding the diversification of lizards.
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Pender, Jocelyn E. « Climatic Niche Estimation, Trait Evolution and Species Richness in North American Carex (Cyperaceae) ». Thesis, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/34334.
Texte intégralRésumé :
With close to 2100 species, the flowering plant genus Carex (Cyperaceae; sedges) is an example of an evolutionary radiation. Despite its potential for use as a model taxon in evolutionary studies, the diversification of sedges remains largely unexplored. This thesis realizes the potential of Carex as an evolutionary model group by using it to ask questions about species richness patterns. More specifically, it seeks to determine the relationship, if any, between rates of trait evolution and species richness. This tests the hypothesis that organisms with increased abilities to evolve new traits, speciate more rapidly. Morphological and ecological (habitat and climatic niche) traits are modelled on a nearly complete regional (North America north of Mexico) phylogeny and rates of trait evolution are compared among non-nested sister groups. However, before trait evolution is modelled, this work evaluates the sensitivity of climatic niche estimates to underlying distribution datasets. It tests the agreement of niche estimates derived from the commonly used online repository GBIF (the Global Biodiversity Information Facility) and county-level distributions via BONAP (the Biota of North America Program). Results showed that in the context of phylogenetic comparative analyses, it is not vital to obtain highly accurate climatic niche estimates. The second study found significant positive correlations between the rates of climatic niche, habitat and reproductive morphological evolution and species richness. This result supports the role of high trait lability in generating species richness and more generally, the idea that high trait disparity through evolutionary time leads to species success.