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Articles de revues sur le sujet « Climate vulnerability assessment »
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Onyeneke, Robert Ugochukwu, Chukwuemeka Chinonso Emenekwe, Jane Onuabuchi Munonye, Chinyere Augusta Nwajiuba, Uwazie Iyke Uwazie, Mark Umunna Amadi, Chibuzo Uzoma Izuogu, Chukwudi Loveday Njoku et Louis Uchenna Onyeneke. « Progress in Climate–Agricultural Vulnerability Assessment in Nigeria ». Atmosphere 11, no 2 (11 février 2020) : 190. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos11020190.
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An in-depth understanding of the impact of vulnerability on livelihoods and food security is important in deploying effective adaptation actions. The Nigerian agricultural sector is dominated by rainfed and non-homogenous smallholder farming systems. A number of climate change risk studies have emerged in the last decade. However, little attention has been given to vulnerability assessments and the operationalization of vulnerability. To highlight this shortcoming, this study systematically reviewed climate-change-focused vulnerability assessments in the agricultural sector by evaluating (1) variation in climate variables in Nigeria over time; (2) the state of climate change vulnerability assessment in Nigerian agriculture; (3) the theoretical foundations, operationalization approaches, and frameworks of vulnerability assessments in Nigeria; (4) the methods currently used in vulnerability assessments; and (5) lessons learned from the vulnerability studies. We used a linear trend of climatic data spanning over a period of 56 years (1961–2016) obtained from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency and the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, United Kingdom, along with a systematic review of literature to achieve the objectives. The analysis indicates a significant and positive correlation between temperature and time in all major agro-ecological zones. For precipitation, we found a non-significant correlation between precipitation in the Sahel, Sudan, and Guinea Savanna zones with time, while the other zones recorded positive but significant associations between precipitation and time. The systematic review findings indicate no clear progress in publications focused specifically on vulnerability assessments in the Nigerian agricultural sector. There has been progress recently in applying frameworks and methods. However, there are important issues that require addressing in vulnerability assessments, including low consideration for indigenous knowledge and experience, unclear operationalization of vulnerability, non-standardization of vulnerability measures, and inadequacy of current assessments supporting decision making.
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M, Sumathy, et Muraleedharan S. « Assessment of Vulnerability to Climate Variability ». RESEARCH HUB International Multidisciplinary Research Journal 8, no 4 (17 avril 2021) : 9–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.53573/rhimrj.2021.v08i04.002.
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KC, Binita, J. Marshall Shepherd et Cassandra Johnson Gaither. « Climate change vulnerability assessment in Georgia ». Applied Geography 62 (août 2015) : 62–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2015.04.007.
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Foden, Wendy B., Bruce E. Young, H. Resit Akçakaya, Raquel A. Garcia, Ary A. Hoffmann, Bruce A. Stein, Chris D. Thomas et al. « Climate change vulnerability assessment of species ». Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews : Climate Change 10, no 1 (11 octobre 2018) : e551. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/wcc.551.
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Schneiderbauer, Stefan, Daniel Baunach, Lydia Pedoth, Kathrin Renner, Kerstin Fritzsche, Christina Bollin, Marco Pregnolato et al. « Spatial-Explicit Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments Based on Impact Chains. Findings from a Case Study in Burundi ». Sustainability 12, no 16 (7 août 2020) : 6354. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12166354.
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Climate change vulnerability assessments are an essential instrument to identify regions most vulnerable to adverse impacts of climate change and to determine appropriate adaptation measures. Vulnerability assessments directly support countries in developing adaptation plans and in identifying possible measures to reduce adverse consequences of changing climate conditions. Against this background, this paper describes a vulnerability assessment using an integrated and participatory approach that builds on standardized working steps of previously developed ‘Vulnerability Sourcebook’ guidelines. The backbone of this approach is impact chains as a conceptual model of cause–effect relationships as well as a structured selection of indicators according to the three main components of vulnerability, namely exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. We illustrate our approach by reporting the results of a vulnerability assessment conducted in Burundi focusing on climate change impacts on water and soil resources. Our work covers two analysis scales: a national assessment with the aim to identify climate change ‘hotspot regions’ through vulnerability mapping; and a local assessment aiming at identifying local-specific drivers of vulnerability and appropriate adaptation measures. Referring to this vulnerability assessment in Burundi, we discuss the potentials and constraints of the approach. We stress the need to involve stakeholders in every step of the assessment and to communicate limitations and uncertainties of the applied methods, indicators and maps in order to increase the comprehension of the approach and the acceptance of the results by different stakeholders. The study proved the practical usability of the approach at the national level by the selection of three particularly vulnerable areas. The results at a local scale supported the identification of adaption measures through intensive engagement of local rural populations.
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Timberlake, Thomas J., et Courtney A. Schultz. « Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Forest Management : The Case of the U.S. Forest Service ». Forests 10, no 11 (15 novembre 2019) : 1030. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/f10111030.
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Forest managers need access to targeted scientific information about the impacts of climate change in order to adapt to climate change. Vulnerability assessments address this need and are common across a range of disciplines and geographies; however, the practice of vulnerability assessment has revealed challenges that warrant further examination in a specific context. The U.S. Forest Service, a national forest-management agency in charge of 78 million hectares, has developed a collection of climate change vulnerability assessments to support adaptation by forest managers. We conducted a qualitative document analysis, informed by a series of research interviews with scientists, of 44 vulnerability assessments developed for the U.S. Forest Service. We found that partnerships between research scientists and land managers were central to the development of vulnerability assessments in the U.S. Forest Service. Assessment processes vary across settings. As the practice has developed, vulnerability assessments increasingly cover larger spatial extents and a broader range of resources associated with forest management. We identified ways in which vulnerability assessments can support decision-making, including approaches already in use and opportunities to improve practice. In particular, we discuss how vulnerability assessments are well-positioned to support the development of land-management plans, which set strategic management direction for periods of at least a decade. This paper provides baseline knowledge on a fundamental aspect of a large national forestry agency’s climate change adaptation strategy, with many findings transferable to the study of other forest-management organizations.
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File, Dramani J. M., et Emmanuel Kanchebe Derbile. « Sunshine, temperature and wind ». International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 12, no 1 (20 janvier 2020) : 22–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijccsm-04-2019-0023.
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Purpose This paper aims to draw on community risk assessment (CRA) for assessing vulnerability to climate change in north-western Ghana, focusing on sunshine, temperature and wind, elements of climate which are seldom explored in vulnerability assessments to climate change. Design/methodology/approach The paper draws on data collected from a qualitative research design that used participatory rural appraisal methods, particularly, in-depth interviews, focus group discussions and seasonal calendar analysis in three selected rural communities of the Sissala East District. Furthermore, an inter-generational framework was adopted for comparative assessment of vulnerability and changes in vulnerability to climate change. Findings The results show that the current generation of smallholder farmers is more vulnerable to climate change than the past generation, the era of grandparents. Thus, farmers are exposed to higher-intensity sunshine, temperature and wind in contemporary times than was the case in the past. Consequently, their livelihoods are affected the most by the damaging effects of these climatic hazards. The CRA process revealed the relevance of indigenous knowledge systems for vulnerability assessments and at the same time, underpins the need for adaptation of such knowledge if it is to sustain smallholder farmer efforts at climate change adaptation at community levels. Practical implications The paper recommends an endogenous development approach to climate change adaptation planning (CCAP), one that will build on indigenous knowledge systems for effective community education, mobilization and participatory response to climate change. Policy interventions should aim at enhancing climate change adaptation through innovations in soil and water conservation, access to water for irrigation and domestic use, climate smart-housing architecture and agro-forestry within the framework of decentralization and district development planning. Originality/value This paper will contribute to climate change research in two ways: first, by drawing attention to the usefulness of CRA in vulnerability assessment; and second, by focusing on climate elements which are critical for CCAP but rarely given sufficient attention in vulnerability assessments.
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Zebisch, Marc, Stefan Schneiderbauer, Kerstin Fritzsche, Philip Bubeck, Stefan Kienberger, Walter Kahlenborn, Susanne Schwan et Till Below. « The vulnerability sourcebook and climate impact chains – a standardised framework for a climate vulnerability and risk assessment ». International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 13, no 1 (3 février 2021) : 35–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijccsm-07-2019-0042.
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Purpose This paper aims to present the “Vulnerability Sourcebook” methodology, a standardised framework for the assessment of climate vulnerability and risk in the context of adaptation planning. The Vulnerability Sourcebook has been developed for the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) and has been applied in more than twenty countries worldwide. Design/methodology/approach It is based on a participative development of so-called climate impact chains, which are an analytical concept to better understand, systemise and prioritise the climate factors as well as environmental and socio-economic factors that drive climate related threats, vulnerabilities and risks in a specific system. Impact chains serve as the backbone for an operational climate vulnerability assessment with indicators based on quantitative approaches (data, models) combined with expert assessments. In this paper, the authors present the concept and applications of the original Vulnerability Sourcebook, published in 2015, which was based on the IPCC AR4 concept of climate vulnerability. In Section 6 of this paper, the authors report how this concept has been adapted to the current IPCC AR5 concept of climate risks. Findings The application of the Sourcebook is demonstrated in three case studies in Bolivia, Pakistan and Burundi. The results indicate that particularly the participative development of impact chains helped with generating a common picture on climate vulnerabilities and commitment for adaptation planning within a region. The mixed methods approach (considering quantitative and qualitative information) allows for a flexible application in different contexts. Challenges are mainly the availability of climate (change) and socio-economic data, as well as the transparency of value-based decisions in the process. Originality/value The Vulnerability Sourcebook offers a standardised framework for the assessment of climate vulnerability and risk in the context of adaptation planning.
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Levison, Morgan, Ainslie Butler, Steven Rebellato, Brenda Armstrong, Marina Whelan et Charles Gardner. « Development of a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Using a Public Health Lens to Determine Local Health Vulnerabilities : An Ontario Health Unit Experience ». International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 15, no 10 (12 octobre 2018) : 2237. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15102237.
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Climate change is negatively impacting the health of Canadians and is accordingly expected to have a significant impact on public health agencies and their response to these health impacts throughout the twenty-first century. While national and international research and assessments have explored the potential human health impacts of climate change, few assessments have explored the implications of climate change from a local public health perspective. An applied research approach to expand local knowledge and action of health vulnerabilities through a climate change action plan and vulnerability assessment was utilized by a local public health agency. Adoption and adaptation of the approach used may be valuable for public health organizations to assist their communities. Through completing a vulnerability assessment, an evidentiary base was generated for public health to inform adaptation actions to reduce negative health impacts and increase resiliency. Challenges in completing vulnerability assessments at the local level include the framing and scoping of health impacts and associated indicators, as well as access to internal expertise surrounding the analysis of data. While access to quantitative data may be limiting at the local level, qualitative data can enhance knowledge of local impacts, while also supporting the creation of key partnerships with community stakeholders which can ensure climate action continues beyond the scope of the vulnerability assessment.
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Lee, Jong Seok, et Hyun Il Choi. « Comparative Analysis of Flood Vulnerability Indicators by Aggregation Frameworks for the IPCC’s Assessment Components to Climate Change ». Applied Sciences 9, no 11 (5 juin 2019) : 2321. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app9112321.
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As severe flood damages have been increasing due to climate change, the flood vulnerability assessment is needed in the flood mitigation plans to cope with climate-related flood disasters. Since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report (IPCC TAR) presented the three assessment components, such as exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability for the vulnerability to climate change, several aggregation frameworks have been used to compile individual components into the composite indicators to measure the flood vulnerability. It is therefore necessary to select an appropriate aggregation framework for the flood vulnerability assessments because the aggregation frameworks can have a large influence on the composite indicator outcomes. For a comparative analysis of flood vulnerability indicators across different aggregation frameworks for the IPCC’s assessment components, the composite indicators are derived by four representative types of aggregation frameworks with all the same proxy variable set in the Republic of Korea. It is found in the study site that there is a key driver component of the composite indicator outcomes and the flood vulnerability outcomes largely depend on whether the key component is treated independently or dependently in each aggregation framework. It is concluded that the selection of an aggregation framework can be based on the correlation and causality analysis to determine the relative contribution of the assessment components to the overall performance of the composite indicators across different aggregation frameworks.
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Gurung, Sher Bahadur. « Assessment of climate change vulnerability in Chiti area of Lamjung district, Nepal ». Geographical Journal of Nepal 14 (10 mars 2021) : 151–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/gjn.v14i0.35557.
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Climate change issue is the global concern of the present day. The present study attempts to assess the vulnerability of the community due to climate change for which Chiti area of Besisahar Municipality from Lamjung district of Nepal was selected as the study area. The climate change vulnerability was assessed using the Long Term Research Program (LTRP). The long term climate change vulnerability household surveys from 2014 baseline data to 2016, 2017 and 2019 data were analysed in this study. This study adapted IPCC (2001) methodology i.e. also used by C4 EcoSolutions on their baseline climate change vulnerability assessment. This is a bottom-up, integrative approach that considers both physical and social dimensions at a local level. Consequently, vulnerability is best understood as a function of three components: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Exposure to climate change vulnerability is calculated with sum of changes in temperature, changes in rainfall patterns, changes in rainfall intensity, drought episodes and flooding events. Sensitivity is calculated based on slope failures, soil fertility, changes in natural environment (i) soil cover; ii) levels of river sedimentation; iii) water salinity; iv) river ecosystems; v) forest size; and vi) the presence of invasive species), economic dependency level, irrigation facilities and livelihood sources. The major finding is that Chiti has been facing climate change since last decade and it is found severely vulnerable due to climate change. There is an urgent need of improvement on climate change adaptive capacity which could result of awareness, information on climate change and adaptation, surplus production and change in agricultural practices. The present study has used awareness score based on conceptual awareness, experiential awareness, and engagement of household to talk about climate change and adaptation. The Long Term Research Approach is appropriate to assess climate change vulnerability in community level. Climate change awareness is one of the major components to reduce vulnerability to climate change in the research area. This is a post adaptation vulnerability analysis of local community which supports climate change vulnerability adaptation policy.
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Nikam, Rahul J., Kantha Deivi Arunachalam, Suranjana V. Mayani, Debleena Bhattacharya, Vishal J. Mayani et Archana Sharma. « Evaluating climatic vulnerability in India : Moving from risk to resilience ». E3S Web of Conferences 603 (2025) : 04017. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202560304017.
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Climate adaptation has been a top priority in the UN climate negotiations due to the increasing frequency of extreme weather occurrences. Assessments of Climate Vulnerability and Risk are crucial for designing adaptation strategies and identifying vulnerable locations and individuals. However, there aren't many development projects or efforts in India that focus on Climate Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA), and investment plans don't include climate resilience. The scopes and methodologies of risk identification and vulnerability assessments that are currently in use in India are evaluated in this article. It then offers recommendations for growing adaptation activities at the federal level, along with methodology based on global best practices.
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Lee, Moon-Hwan, Il-Won Jung et Deg-Hyo Bae. « Korean Flood Vulnerability Assessment on Climate Change ». Journal of Korea Water Resources Association 44, no 8 (31 août 2011) : 653–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/jkwra.2011.44.8.653.
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Manzyrev, D. V., et V. I. Demidov. « Vulnerability assessment of structures under climate change ». Equipment and Technologies for Oil and Gas Complex, no 2 (2022) : 74–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.33285/1999-6934-2022-2(128)-74-78.
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Manzyrev, D. V., et V. I. Demidov. « Vulnerability assessment of structures under climate change ». Equipment and Technologies for Oil and Gas Complex, no 2 (2022) : 74–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.33285/1999-6934-2022-2(128)-74-78.
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Metternicht, Graciela, Andrea Sabelli et Jason Spensley. « Climate change vulnerability, impact and adaptation assessment ». International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 6, no 4 (11 novembre 2014) : 442–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijccsm-06-2013-0076.
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Pizarro, J., B. Sainsbury, J. Hodgkinson et B. Loechel. « Australian uranium industry climate change vulnerability assessment ». Environmental Development 24 (décembre 2017) : 109–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2017.06.002.
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YOUNUS, MD ABOUL FAZAL. « FLOOD VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN BANGLADESH : A REVIEW ». Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management 16, no 03 (septembre 2014) : 1450024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s1464333214500240.
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This paper reviews recent literature on flood research in Bangladesh, focusing on the nation's vulnerability to climate change and its ability to adapt. This review reveals that the literature on community-based vulnerability and adaptation, and their processes and assessments in response to hazards under climate change regimes are inadequate, apart from a recent focus on assessment of the vulnerability of rural communities, their ability to adapt their farming methods, or the economic consequences of failure to adapt in response to extreme flood events, e.g. Younus (2012a,b); Younus and Harvey (2013, 2014). This paper argues that an integrated assessment of rural vulnerability and community-based adaptation is needed in order to ensure sustainable changes in response to future climate change regimes in Bangladesh.
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Le, Tuan Ngoc. « Assessing the vulnerability to climate change – review ». Science and Technology Development Journal - Natural Sciences 1, T2 (30 juin 2017) : 5–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.32508/stdjns.v1it2.443.
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Climate change (CC) and their related impacts become clearer and significantly affect socio-economic fields as well as public health. Accordingly, the assessment of vulnerability to CC becomes necessary and is the basis for the formulation of measures to enhance the adaptive capacity and to mitigate CC effects. This work aims to review the situation of research and assessment of vulnerability; especially approaches and assessment methods, serving establishing methodology of vulnerability assessment due to CC for concerned industries, sectors, areas, and objects.
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Ordóñez, C., et P. N. Duinker. « Assessing the vulnerability of urban forests to climate change ». Environmental Reviews 22, no 3 (septembre 2014) : 311–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/er-2013-0078.
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Climate adaptation is being embraced by many municipalities worldwide. An element of this is the planting and protection of urban trees. However, the fact that climate change will also have an impact on urban trees has been largely overlooked. We argue that climate vulnerability assessments are necessary for addressing climate adaptation in urban forests and contribute to successful climate adaptation in cities. We review and integrate the literature on climate vulnerability and urban forests to explore how the general notion of urban forest vulnerability to climate change can be developed into an operational framework for undertaking a vulnerability assessment. The framework characterizes climate exposure, impact, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, as well as nonclimatic drivers and factors, in urban forests. The most important themes in this discussion include urban tree species selection and diversity, naturalization, resource access, social awareness and engagement, budget and economic valuation, liability issues, and governance structures. Climate change vulnerability assessments help us understand how and why urban forests are vulnerable to climate change, identify future areas for research, and determine what adaptation measures could be included in urban forest management. These assessments help bring climate change to the forefront of the decision-making process and contribute to successful urban adaptation to climate change.
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Li, Meng, Xianzhou Zhang, Yongtao He, Ben Niu et Jianshuang Wu. « Assessment of the vulnerability of alpine grasslands on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau ». PeerJ 8 (6 février 2020) : e8513. http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.8513.
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Assessing ecosystem vulnerability to climate change is critical for sustainable and adaptive ecosystem management. Alpine grasslands on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau are considered to be vulnerable to climate change, yet the ecosystem tends to maintain stability by increasing resilience and decreasing sensitivity. To date, the spatial pattern of grassland vulnerability to climate change and the mechanisms that vegetation applies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on grasslands by altering relevant ecosystem characteristics, especially sensitivity and resilience, remain unknown. In this study, we first assessed the spatial pattern of grassland vulnerability to climate change by integrating exposure, sensitivity, and resilience simultaneously, and then identified its driving forces. The results show that grasslands with high vulnerability were mainly located on the edges of the plateau, whereas alpine grasslands in the hinterlands of the plateau showed a low vulnerability. This spatial pattern of alpine grassland vulnerability was controlled by climatic exposure, and grassland sensitivity and resilience to climate change might also exacerbate or alleviate the degree of vulnerability. Climate change had variable impacts on different grassland types. Desert steppes were more vulnerable to climate change than alpine meadows and alpine steppes because of the high variability in environmental factors and their low ability to recover from perturbations. Our findings also confirm that grazing intensity, a quantitative index of the most important human disturbance on alpine grasslands in this plateau, was significantly correlated with ecosystem vulnerability. Moderate grazing intensity was of benefit for increasing grassland resilience and then subsequently reducing grassland vulnerability. Thus, this study suggests that future assessments of ecosystem vulnerability should not ignore anthropogenic disturbances, which might benefit environmental protection and sustainable management of grasslands on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.
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Morchain, Daniel, Dian Spear, Gina Ziervogel, Hillary Masundire, Margaret N. Angula, Julia Davies, Chandapiwa Molefe et Salma Hegga. « Building transformative capacity in southern Africa : Surfacing knowledge and challenging structures through participatory Vulnerability and Risk Assessments ». Action Research 17, no 1 (mars 2019) : 19–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1476750319829205.
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Although participatory approaches are becoming more widespread, to date vulnerability assessments have largely been conducted by technocrats and have paid little attention to underlying causes of vulnerability, such as inequality and biased governance systems. Participatory assessments that recognise the social roots of vulnerability, however, are critical in helping individuals and institutions rethink their understanding of and responses to climate change impacts. This paper interrogates the contribution of Oxfam’s Vulnerability and Risk Assessment methodology to enabling transformation at both personal and institutional levels. Three Vulnerability and Risk Assessment exercises were conducted in Malawi, Botswana and Namibia by one or more of the authors in 2015 and 2016. Reflecting on these workshops, we explore the contribution that a process like the Vulnerability and Risk Assessment may bring to transformation. We conclude that these types of inclusive and representative participatory approaches can shift narratives and power dynamics, allow marginal voices to be heard, build cross–scalar relationships and enable the co-creation of solutions. Such approaches can play a key role in moving towards transformational thinking and action, especially in relation to climate change adaptation.
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Zhang, Mingshun, Zelu Liu et Meine Pieter van Dijk. « Measuring urban vulnerability to climate change using an integrated approach, assessing climate risks in Beijing ». PeerJ 7 (30 mai 2019) : e7018. http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.7018.
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This study is responding to the recommendation made by IPCC’s fifth Assessment Report on establishing a standard for measuring and reporting climate risk and vulnerability. It exemplifies the assessment of urban vulnerability to climate change by an integrated approach. The results indicate that Beijing is highly exposed to multiple climate threats in the context of global climate change, specifically urban heat waves, urban drainage floods and drought. Vulnerabilities to the climatic threats of heat waves, drainage floods and droughts have increased by 5%–15% during the period of 2008–2016 in Beijing. High vulnerabilities to both heat waves and drainage floods have been observed in the urban downtown area and high vulnerability to droughts have been observed in the outskirts. This vulnerability assessment, which addressed climatic threats, provides a holistic understanding of the susceptibility to climate change that could facilitate adaptation to climate change in the future. The developments of threats like flooding, heat waves and droughts are analyzed separately for 16 districts and an integrated vulnerability index for all of Beijing is provided as well.
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My Tran, Do Tra, Ngoc Khac Hoang, Van Dai Hoang, Anh Huy Hoang et Tien Thanh Nguyen. « VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF AQUACULTURE TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE NORTHERN COAST OF VIETNAM ». International Journal of Agriculture and Environmental Research 06, no 04 (2020) : 615–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.51193/ijaer.2020.6407.
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Climate change is a major global concern that greatly affects people, including their source of living. It was reported that Vietnam, a country with 70 percent of total population lives along coastal areas and in islands, is one of the five countries most severely affected by climate change. Aquaculture may be vulnerable to variations in climate in multiple ways in such countries with the long coastline as Vietnam. In this study, the vulnerability of aquaculture to climate change in the northern coast of Vietnam was assessed at the local scale based on the concept of vulnerability as a function of sensitivity to climate change, exposure to climate change and adaptive capacity. A total of 15 detailed indicators were used to calculate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. It was found that the vulnerability of the northern coastal area was mainly at medium level, however, the high level of vulnerability was detected in districts and cities with long coastline. No areas were also detected at very low and very high levels of climate change vulnerability. These results suggest adaptation strategies to these high levels of vulnerability of aquaculture areas can help to increase society's resilience to climate change.
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He, Cheng, Liguo Zhou, Weichun Ma et Yuan Wang. « Spatial Assessment of Urban Climate Change Vulnerability during Different Urbanization Phases ». Sustainability 11, no 8 (23 avril 2019) : 2406. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11082406.
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In urban areas, concentrated populations and societal changes intensify the influence of climate change. However, few studies have focused on vulnerability to climate-related risks on the scale of a single urban area. Against this backdrop, we reconstructed a spatial vulnerability framework based on the drivers-pressures-state-impact-response (DPSIR) model to reflect the complex interactions between urbanization and climate change and to integrate the natural and socio-economic factors of urban areas into this framework. Furthermore, to explore the relationship between rapid urbanization and climate change, we studied data from two years that represented different stages of urbanization. The results showed that the index framework was able to reconcile these two concepts to reflect the complex interactions between urbanization and climate change. The assessment results indicate that the overall degree of climate change vulnerability exhibits a generally increasing and dispersing trend after rapid urbanization. The increasing trend is influenced by an increase in low-vulnerability areas, and the dispersing trend is influenced by anthropogenic activities caused by rapid urbanization. The changes are reflected in the following observations: 1. The suburbs are affected by their own natural environmental characteristics and rapid urbanization; the vulnerability level has risen in most areas but has declined in certain inland areas. 2. High-vulnerability regions show minor changes during this stage due to the lasting impact of climate change. Finally, the main environmental problems faced by high-vulnerability areas are discussed based on existing research.
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Jun, Sunmin, et Juchul Jung. « Urban Livability Assessment in South Korea : Incorporating Climate Change Vulnerability ». Urban Science 8, no 4 (21 octobre 2024) : 181. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/urbansci8040181.
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This study aims to develop an urban livability assessment index that incorporates climate change vulnerability and to apply this index to urban areas in South Korea, thereby analyzing the impact of climate change on living environments and quality of life. Existing frameworks for livability indices often fail to adequately reflect the long-term risks associated with climate change. Consequently, this research proposes a new livability index that includes climate change vulnerability, establishing a policy foundation aimed at protecting and enhancing the quality of life for urban residents. The methodology integrates existing livability indicators with climate change vulnerability indicators across 219 cities and districts in South Korea. Utilizing panel regression analysis and Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) analysis, the study evaluates the spatial clustering characteristics and potential risks in each area. The results indicate that urban infrastructure significantly influences livability, with climate change vulnerability indicators forming high clusters primarily in southern regions. Furthermore, the study confirms economic disparities within the metropolitan area, as well as the exacerbation of social inequalities in regions vulnerable to disaster safety and social services. This research underscores the necessity of integrating climate change vulnerability into livability indices, suggesting that such indices can serve as critical criteria for urban policy formulation and the evaluation of regeneration projects.
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Priyadarshi, Sambit, S. N. Ojha et Arpita Sharma. « An Assessment of Vulnerability of Fishers’ Livelihood to Climate Change in Coastal Odisha ». Current World Environment 14, no 1 (25 avril 2019) : 60–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.12944/cwe.14.1.08.
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A study was conducted in Odisha, a state on the east coast of India, with the objective of assessing the vulnerability of fishers’ livelihood to climate change. The state was chosen for study since it is considered as one of the most vulnerable states due to climate change. A total of 120 fishers were interviewed from two districts, Balasore and Ganjam, to assess their livelihood vulnerability by considering their exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to climate change. A composite livelihood vulnerability index by suggesting that fishers are vulnerable to climate change. For fishers of + 0.03 and for Ganjam it was 0.5 minima 0, and maxima 1 was used for the purpose. Baleswar the score was 0.56 0.04, s. The aggregated vulnerability score was found to be 0.54+The composite livelihood vulnerability index approach calculates vulnerability by aggregating data for a set of indicators for the components of vulnerability which include exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity + 0.04. Vulnerability score was relatively higher in Baleswar due to higher scores on the exposure and sensitivity parameters overshadowing the higher adaptive capacity. The study shows evidence that marine fishers of Odisha are vulnerable to climate change. Also, it throws light on the location and context specificity of livelihood vulnerability.
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Fan, Dongliang, Feiyun Yang, Zhihua Pan, Xiaoyun Su, Yuying Pan, Guolin Han, Jialin Wang, Dong Wu et Zhiqiang Dong. « Development of an Improved Model to Evaluate Vulnerability in Spring Wheat under Climate Change in Inner Mongolia ». Sustainability 10, no 12 (4 décembre 2018) : 4581. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su10124581.
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Climate change has had a significant impact on agricultural production. It is important to evaluate the vulnerability of agricultural production to climate change. The previous methods for evaluating vulnerability are inconsiderate and unrealistic. This paper proposes an improved vulnerability assessment method, introduces the Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM)-wheat model to evaluate vulnerability, and uses spring wheat, in Inner Mongolia, China, as an example for evaluating the vulnerability of spring wheat under climate change. The results show that, from 1996 to 2015, the adaptability to climate change of spring wheat production, in Inner Mongolia, increased, and its sensitivity to climate change decreased. That is to say, that climatic conditions have a negative impact on spring wheat, and adaptation measures have a positive impact on spring wheat. From 1996 to 2009, the vulnerability of spring wheat production in Inner Mongolia showed a very significant increasing trend, while showing a significant downward trend during 2009–2015, which is consistent with the actual situation. The improved vulnerability assessment method can reflect the actual impact of climatic conditions on agricultural production. We expect that the new vulnerability assessment method can provide a theoretical basis for studying the impact of climate change on agricultural production.
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Nicholls, Robert J., Poh Poh Wong, Virginia Burkett, Colin D. Woodroffe et John Hay. « Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment : scenarios for integrated assessment ». Sustainability Science 3, no 1 (avril 2008) : 89–102. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11625-008-0050-4.
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Aryal, Aashutosh, Rieks Bosch et Venkataraman Lakshmi. « Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment of Georgian Hydrology under Future Climate Change Scenarios ». Climate 11, no 11 (2 novembre 2023) : 222. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cli11110222.
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The Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) is a systematic process used to identify gaps in regional climate adaptation strategies. The CRVA method assesses regional vulnerability, adaptation capacity, exposure, and sensitivity to climate change to support improved adaptation policies. This CRVA study assesses Georgia’s climate exposure, geographic sensitivity, and socio-economic sensitivity by focusing on the impacts of climate change on regional hydrology. The projected change in climate extreme indices, defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), is assessed against the 1961–1990 baseline under future Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. These indices encompass various climate factors such as the maximum daily temperature, warmth duration, total precipitation, heavy and extreme precipitation, maximum 5-day precipitation, and consecutive drought duration. This evaluation helps us understand the potential climate exposure impacts on Georgia. The climate-induced geographic sensitivity is examined based on water stress, drought risk, and changes in soil productivity using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The climate-induced socio-economic sensitivity is determined using the Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDP), Human Development Index, Education Index, and population density. The highest vulnerability to climate change was found in the Kakheti and Kvemo Kartli regions, with the vulnerability index values ranging from 6 to 15, followed by Mtskheta-Mtianeti, Samtskhe–Javakheti, and Shida Kartli with vulnerability index values ranging from 2 to 8. The location of these regions upstream of the Alazani-Iori, Khrami-Debeda, and Mktvari river basins indicates that the country’s water resources are vulnerable to climate change impacts in the future under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios.
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Alawna, Sandy, et Xavier Garcia. « Spatial and Temporal Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment in the West Bank, Palestine ». Environments 12, no 2 (18 février 2025) : 69. https://doi.org/10.3390/environments12020069.
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Climate change is widely recognized as an inevitable phenomenon, with the Mediterranean region expected to experience some of the most severe impacts. Countries in this region, including Palestine, are already observing significant effects on key sectors such as agriculture, water resources, industry, and health. Consequently, there is a need for multidimensional analyses of vulnerability. This study applied a Climate Change Vulnerability (CCV) index to assess spatial and temporal changes in vulnerability across different governorates in the West Bank, Palestine. Climate change vulnerability maps for the West Bank were developed using Geographic Information System (GIS) tools and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) matrices, incorporating various indicators across categories such as Health, Socio-demographic, Agriculture, Service, Housing, and Economic components. The findings indicate that socio-demographic factors contribute significantly to the West Bank’s overall vulnerability to climate change. Although the overall vulnerability has decreased over time, the developed maps reveal that 76% of the West Bank’s population resides in areas classified as highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. In contrast, 10% of the population lives in areas classified as low to very low in terms of vulnerability, including the governorates of Tubas, Salfit, Qalqiliya, and Jericho and Al-Aghwar. These results are invaluable for policymakers, offering guidance on selecting appropriate mitigation and adaptation measures, particularly in highly vulnerable areas, to reduce the impacts of climate change across the region.
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Warren, R. F., R. L. Wilby, K. Brown, P. Watkiss, Richard A. Betts, James M. Murphy et Jason A. Lowe. « Advancing national climate change risk assessment to deliver national adaptation plans ». Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A : Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 376, no 2121 (30 avril 2018) : 20170295. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2017.0295.
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A wide range of climate vulnerability and risk assessments have been implemented using different approaches at different scales, some with a broad multi-sectoral scope and others focused on single risks or sectors. This paper describes the novel approach to vulnerability and risk assessment which was designed and put into practice in the United Kingdom's Second Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA2) so as to build upon its earlier assessment (CCRA1). First, we summarize and critique the CCRA1 approach, and second describe the steps taken in the CCRA2 approach in detail, providing examples of how each was applied in practice. Novel elements of the approach include assessment of both present day and future vulnerability, a focus on the urgency of adaptation action, and a structure focused around systems of receptors rather than conventional sectors. Both stakeholders and reviewers generally regarded the approach as successful in providing advice on current risks and future opportunities to the UK from climate change, and the fulfilment of statutory duty. The need for a well-supported and open suite of impact indicators going forward is highlighted. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.
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Beardmore, Tannis, et Richard Winder. « Review of science-based assessments of species vulnerability : Contributions to decision-making for assisted migration ». Forestry Chronicle 87, no 06 (décembre 2011) : 745–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.5558/tfc2011-091.
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Assessing climate change impacts on forest species can significantly assist forest management planning. Recently, many tools have been developed for assessing species-specific vulnerability to climate change. These tools are question-based assessments that consider multiple criteria for individual species; the criteria are related to exposure and sensitivity to climate change. The following tools are discussed in relation to their use in Canada: (1) the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index; (2) the System for Assessing Vulnerability of Species to Climate Change (SAVS); (3) the Forest Tree Genetic Risk Assessment; (4) the Index for Predicting Tree Species Vulnerability; (5) ecological standards developed for the assisted migration of Torreya taxifolia; and (6) the Seeds of Success Program. These tools can all be applied to different forest species and they vary in such areas as their species-specific evaluation criteria, means for addressing uncertainty, and the integration of climate change models.
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Di Matteo, Giovanni, Pierfrancesco Nardi, Stefano Grego et Caterina Guidi. « Bibliometric analysis of Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment research ». Environment Systems and Decisions 38, no 4 (29 mai 2018) : 508–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10669-018-9687-4.
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Fawcett, David, Tristan Pearce, James D. Ford et Lewis Archer. « Operationalizing longitudinal approaches to climate change vulnerability assessment ». Global Environmental Change 45 (juillet 2017) : 79–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.05.002.
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Acheampong, Ernest Nti, Nicholas Ozor et Eric Sarpong Owusu. « Vulnerability assessment of Northern Ghana to climate variability ». Climatic Change 126, no 1-2 (10 juillet 2014) : 31–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1195-z.
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Kim, Moo-Jin, Jae-Beum Hong, In-Seong Han, Joon-Soo Lee et Do-Hoon Kim. « Vulnerability assessment of Korean fisheries to climate change ». Marine Policy 155 (septembre 2023) : 105735. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2023.105735.
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Sánchez Rodríguez, Roberto, et Aarón Morales Santos. « Vulnerability Assessment to Climate Variability and Climate Change in Tijuana, Mexico ». Sustainability 10, no 7 (6 juillet 2018) : 2352. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su10072352.
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Anandhi, Aavudai, Kyle R. Douglas-Mankin, Puneet Srivastava, Robert M. Aiken, Gabriel Senay, L. Ruby Leung et Indrajeet Chaubey. « DPSIR-ESA Vulnerability Assessment (DEVA) Framework : Synthesis, Foundational Overview, and Expert Case Studies ». Transactions of the ASABE 63, no 3 (2020) : 741–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.13031/trans.13516.
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Highlights A new DPSIR-ESA Vulnerability Assessment (DEVA) framework for land-resource assessment is presented. We broadly define a land-resource target system to include ecological resources and socioeconomic systems. DEVA operationalizes the process of assessing the vulnerability of a target system to external stressors. Six case studies provide examples of the key DEVA concepts and the seven DEVA steps. Abstract. Land resources are central to understanding the relationship between humans and their environment. We broadly define land resources to include all the ecological resources of climate, water, soil, landforms, flora, and fauna and all the socioeconomic systems that interact with agriculture, forestry, and other land uses within some system boundary. Understanding the vulnerability of land resources to changes in land management or climate forcing is critical to developing sustainable land management strategies. Vulnerability assessments are complex, given the multiple uses of the assessments, the multi-disciplinary nature of the problem, limited understanding, the dynamic structure of vulnerability, scale issues, and problems with identifying effective vulnerability indicators. Here, we propose a novel conceptual framework for vulnerability assessments of land resources that combines the driver-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) framework adopted by the European Environment Agency to describe interactions between society and the environment, and the exposure-sensitivity-adaptive capacity (ESA) framework used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to assess impacts of climate change. The DPSIR-ESA Vulnerability Assessment (DEVA) framework operationalizes the process of assessing the vulnerability of a target system to external stressors. The DEVA framework includes seven steps: (1) definition of the target system (land resource), (2) description of internal characteristics of the target system (state), (3) description of target system vulnerability indicators (adaptive capacity, sensitivity), (4) description of stressor characteristics (drivers, pressures), (5) description of stressor vulnerability indicators (exposure), (6) description of target system response to stressors (impacts), and (7) description of modifications to target system or stressors (responses). In stating that they have applied the DEVA framework, analysts acknowledge that they (1) have considered the full breadth of each DEVA element, (2) have made conscious decisions to limit the scope and complexity of certain elements, and (3) can communicate both the rationale for these decisions and the impact of these decisions on the vulnerability assessment results and recommendations. The DEVA framework was refined during invited presentations and follow-up discussions at a series of special sessions with leading experts at two successive ASABE Annual International Meetings. Six case studies drawn from the sessions elaborate on the DEVA framework and provide examples of the key concepts. The DEVA framework gives engineers, planners, and analysts a flexible new approach to apply a broad array of useful tools for vulnerability assessment of land resource systems. Keywords: Driver-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) framework, Exposure-sensitivity-adaptive capacity (ESA) framework, DPSIR-ESA Vulnerability Assessment (DEVA) framework, Land resource, Systems thinking.
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Zakharova, Olga, Egine Karagulian, Natalia Viktorova, Valeriy Gamukin et Victoria Yablochkina. « Risk Assessment of Socio-Economic Vulnerability to Climate Change : Case Study of Tuymen Region ». World 6, no 1 (1 janvier 2025) : 6. https://doi.org/10.3390/world6010006.
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The risk of socio-economic vulnerability depends not only on the risk of climate hazards occurring but also on society’s vulnerability to such hazards, coping capacity, and adaptive capacity. The World Risk Index methodology was used to assess the risk of socio-economic vulnerability of municipalities in the Tyumen region to climate-related hazards. Three groups of indicators were identified for calculating the socio-economic vulnerability risk: susceptibility, coping capacity, and adaptive capacity. Indicators in each group were selected based on official statistics. As a result, the risk of the realization of climate hazards and the risk of socio-economic vulnerability for the municipalities of the Tyumen region were ranked. Based on the results of ranking, the municipalities were divided into five groups. These groups had similar characteristics regarding socio-economic vulnerability indicators. The spatial analysis allowed for the identification of two clusters of municipalities with the highest level of socio-economic vulnerability due to a high risk of realization of climate-related hazards. Policy recommendations were proposed based on a spatial analysis of the risk of socio-economic vulnerability across municipalities and the analysis of socio-economic vulnerability indicators.
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Tuyet Hanh, Tran Thi, Le Thi Thanh Huong, Nguyen Thi Lien Huong, Tran Nu Quy Linh, Nguyen Huu Quyen, Nguyen Thi Trang Nhung, Kristie Ebi et al. « Vietnam Climate Change and Health Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment, 2018 ». Environmental Health Insights 14 (janvier 2020) : 117863022092465. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1178630220924658.
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Background: The Global Climate Risk Index 2020 ranked Vietnam as the sixth country in the world most affected by climate variability and extreme weather events over the period 1999-2018. Sea level rise and extreme weather events are projected to be more severe in coming decades, which, without additional action, will increase the number of people at risk of climate-sensitive diseases, challenging the health system. This article summaries the results of a health vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) assessment conducted in Vietnam as evidences for development of the National Climate Change Health Adaptation Plan to 2030. Methods: The assessment followed the first 4 steps outlined in the World Health Organization’s Guidelines in conducting “Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments.” A framework and list of indicators were developed for semi-quantitative assessment for the period 2013 to 2017. Three sets of indicators were selected to assess the level of (1) exposure to climate change and extreme weather events, (2) health sensitivity, and (3) adaptation capacity. The indicators were rated and analyzed using a scoring system from 1 to 5. Results: The results showed that climate-sensitive diseases were common, including dengue fever, diarrheal, influenza, etc, with large burdens of disease that are projected to increase. From 2013 to 2017, the level of “exposure” to climate change–related hazards of the health sector was “high” to “very high,” with an average score from 3.5 to 4.4 (out of 5.0). For “health sensitivity,” the scores decreased from 3.8 in 2013 to 3.5 in 2017, making the overall rating as “high.” For “adaptive capacity,” the scores were from 4.0 to 4.1, which meant adaptive capacity was “very low.” The overall V&A rating in 2013 was “very high risk” (score 4.1) and “high risk” with scores of 3.8 in 2014 and 3.7 in 2015 to 2017. Conclusions: Adaptation actions of the health sector are urgently needed to reduce the vulnerability to climate change in coming decades. Eight adaptation solutions, among recommendations of V&A assessment, were adopted in the National Health Climate Change Adaptation Plan.
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Chitale, V. S., H. L. Shrestha, N. K. Agarwal, D. Choudhurya, H. Gilani, H. K. Dhonju et M. S. R. Murthy. « Forest climate change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment in Himalayas ». ISPRS - International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences XL-8 (28 novembre 2014) : 1291–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/isprsarchives-xl-8-1291-2014.
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Forests offer an important basis for creating and safeguarding more climate-resilient communities over Hindu Kush Himalayan region. The forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment to climate change and developing knowledge base to identify and support relevant adaptation strategies is realized as an urgent need. The multi scale adaptation strategies portray increasing complexity with the increasing levels in terms of data requirements, vulnerability understanding and decision making to choose a particular adaptation strategy. We present here how such complexities could be addressed and adaptation decisions could be either directly supported by open source remote sensing based forestry products or geospatial analysis and modelled products. The forest vulnerability assessment under climate change scenario coupled with increasing forest social dependence was studied using IPCC Landscape scale Vulnerability framework in Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) situated in Nepal. Around twenty layers of geospatial information on climate, forest biophysical and forest social dependence data was used to assess forest vulnerability and associated adaptation needs using self-learning decision tree based approaches. The increase in forest fires, evapotranspiration and reduction in productivity over changing climate scenario was observed. The adaptation measures on enhancing productivity, improving resilience, reducing or avoiding pressure with spatial specificity are identified to support suitable decision making. The study provides spatial analytical framework to evaluate multitude of parameters to understand vulnerabilities and assess scope for alternative adaptation strategies with spatial explicitness.
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Vancsó, Judit Pappné, Mónika Hoschek et Ferenc Jankó. « Climate Change in Hungarian Rural Society : Assessment of Adaptive Capacity ». Acta Silvatica et Lignaria Hungarica 12, no 2 (1 décembre 2016) : 105–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/aslh-2016-0009.
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Abstract Beside sustainable development, vulnerability might be the most frequently used expression in environmental studies. Vulnerability depends on the intensity of the impacts on a natural or social system as well as on its adaptive capacity. Appropriate adaptation warrants successful survival of the system even under high impact, when its vulnerability is significantly reduced; therefore, measuring adaptive capacity should have an established place in the methodology of impact – adaptation – vulnerability research. The main problem is to find relevant data that are required to establish indicators. In our study, the focus was laid on measuring adaptive capacity within vulnerability research, and on identifying possibilities for accurate calculation of adaptation. An attempt was made to determine the adaptive capacity to droughts in the micro-regions of Zala County. It could be established that the adaptive capacity of the population in the rural areas of Zala County to the expected increase in drought frequency is very low, which can be primarily explained by the lack of knowledge about adaptive agriculture.
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Greiving, Stefan, Marc Zebisch, Stefan Schneiderbauer, Mark Fleischhauer, Christian Lindner, Johannes Lückenkötter, Mareike Buth, Walter Kahlenborn et Inke Schauser. « A consensus based vulnerability assessment to climate change in Germany ». International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 7, no 3 (17 août 2015) : 306–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijccsm-11-2013-0124.
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Purpose – This paper aims to propose a collaborative approach toward an integrated vulnerability assessment to climate change in Germany that attempts to bridge the gap between scientific output and policy demand. Design/methodology/approach – Conceptually, the approach follows the definition of vulnerability as used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but it has modified this basic concept. It clearly distinguishes between three time slices (presence, near and remote future) not only regarding the change in the climatic conditions but also socio-economic development trends. Findings – The paper concentrates on the selected methodological framework, the collaborative research design and those preliminary results of the nationwide vulnerability assessment that are transferable to other settings. Practical implications – A Vulnerability Network (“Netzwerk Vulnerabilitaet”) emerged from an applied research project commissioned under the Adaptation Action Plan of the German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change by the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety and the Federal Environment Agency. The assessment serves as evidence basis for the implementation of the German Adaptation Strategy. Thus, all relevant federal authorities and agencies are represented in the Vulnerability Network. Originality/value – The approach is the first really integrative vulnerability assessment for the whole Germany, as it considers not only 16 sectors but also interconnections between these sectors and cumulative effects for three different time slices. Moreover, the normative component of the assessment was clearly separated from the analytic one. The Vulnerability Network as a whole has been responsible for all normative decisions to be taken during the assessment procedure thus ensuring a wide understanding and acceptance of commonly achieved results.
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Yang, Tingting, Peng Li, Xinhong Wu, Xiangyang Hou, Pengtao Liu et Guozheng Yao. « Assessment of vulnerability to climate change in the Inner Mongolia steppe at a county scale from 1980 to 2009 ». Rangeland Journal 36, no 6 (2014) : 545. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/rj14011.
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Most of Inner Mongolia is covered with natural grassland and is highly sensitive to global climate change because of the physical geography, the highly variable climate, and the complicated socioeconomic conditions. The climate is generally wetter in the east becoming drier towards the west of the region. Using a Pressure-State-Response model to select climate-related assessment indicators, a vulnerability assessment to climate change framework of counties in Inner Mongolia was built, which included three layers and 17 indicators. Climate change vulnerability of eight counties in the steppe area of Inner Mongolia was assessed from 1980 to 2009. The results showed that in the past 30 years, climate change vulnerability of eight counties has decreased with the decrease more pronounced after 2000. The lowest value for vulnerability was in 2008. The vulnerability of the western region was higher than that of the eastern region. Counties with a desert ecological system had a higher vulnerability than counties with steppe. Under the background of exposure increasing and sensitivity slightly decreasing, a continuing significant improvement in adaptive capacity is the key reason for a reduction invulnerability of the Inner Mongolia steppe area to climate change. The volatility of the climate on an inter-annual scale can cause changes in vulnerability between years. With the development of the rural economy and increases in national investment in the environment, the vulnerability of the Inner Mongolian steppe has been significantly reduced, but, overall, the vulnerability remains high. Most of the counties are moderately vulnerable, some counties are seriously vulnerable, even extremely vulnerable, and strong measures need to be adopted to strengthen the ability to adapt to climate change.
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Yang, Xiao-Hua, Jun He, Cong-Li Di et Jian-Qiang Li. « Vulnerability of assessing water resources by the improved set pair analysis ». Thermal Science 18, no 5 (2014) : 1531–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/tsci1405531y.
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Climate change has tremendously changed the hydrological processes with global warming. There are many uncertainties in assessing water resources vulnerability. To assess the water resources vulnerability rationally under climate change, an improved set pair analysis model is established, in which set pair analysis theory is introduced and the weights are determined by the analytic hierarchy process method. The index systems and criteria of water resources vulnerability assessment in terms of water cycle, socio-economy, and ecological environment are established based on the analysis of sensibility and adaptability. Improved set pair analysis model is used to assess water resource vulnerability in Ningxia with twelve indexes under four kinds of future climate scenarios. Certain and uncertain information quantity of water resource vulnerability is calculated by connection numbers in the improved set pair analysis model. Results show that Ningxia is higher vulnerability under climate change scenarios. Improved set pair analysis model can fully take advantage of certain and uncertain knowledge, subjective and objective information compared with fuzzy assessment model and artificial neural network model. The improved set pair analysis is an extension to the vulnerability assessment model of water resources system.
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Ocheni, B. A., M. A. Ndanitsa, K. M. Baba et M. A. Ojo. « Assessment of Vulnerability of Rice farmers to Climate Variability in Kogi State, North Central Nigeria : A Vulnerability Composite Index Approach ». BADEGGI JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH AND ENVIRONMENT 3, no 2 (juin 2021) : 37–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.35849/bjare202003009.
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Vulnerability assessments to climate change are a possible criterion for adaptation and have a long history on multidisciplinary research. Identification and assessing the degree of vulnerability as a result of climate change is an essential pre-requisite for reducing climate change impacts. The study focuses on vulnerability of rice farmers to climate change in Kogi State, Nigeria. Data for the study were obtained from primary and secondary sources with the aid of structured questionnaire administered to 123 rice farmers from across the four agricultural zones in the State. A total of 15 environmental and socio-economic indicators were identified and analyzed to measure vulnerability status in the agricultural zones. Composite Climate Change Vulnerability Index computed from the hazards, sensitivity and adaptive capacity components revealed that all the rice farmers’ were vulnerable to climate change but vary in the degrees of vulnerability. Scores of Exposure-Sensitivity Index (ESI) suggest that rice farmers in Owolikpa and Igalaogba were most prone and susceptible to climate change whereas, Baganna, Ikande, Odoepe, and Iluke were least exposed and sensitive to climate change. Kpancehe, Kakanda, Girinya, Eggan,and Aiyetoro were categorized under very high to high degree of vulnerability while Iya, Baganna and Echa were rated low vulnerable to climate change. These prioritized areas, based on rank and degree of vulnerability, should be given immediate consideration, and measures should be taken by internalizing region specific needs to address the growing challenge of climate change.
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Santos, Juliana Sales dos, Cláudia Klose Parise, Lia Duarte et Ana Cláudia Teodoro. « Bibliometric Analysis of Global Research on Port Infrastructure Vulnerability to Climate Change (2012–2023) : Key Indices, Influential Contributions, and Future Directions ». Sustainability 16, no 19 (4 octobre 2024) : 8622. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su16198622.
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This article analyzes the climate vulnerability of seaports through a bibliometric review of 45 articles published between 2012 and 2023. The research highlights the increase in publications focusing on the vulnerability of port infrastructure to climate impacts, a topic that previously received less attention compared to operational, economic, and logistical factors, which are frequently discussed in the existing literature. The analysis reinforces the relevance of this study, with the United States, Spain, and the United Kingdom emerging as the most influential countries in this research area. This article also reveals the predominance of methods based on the Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI), which includes ports in its assessments, and emphasizes the need to develop a more robust index for evaluating port vulnerability. Additionally, it discusses current topics, such as sea level rise and the use of global climate models and suggests future research directions to enhance the assessment of port vulnerability in the face of climate change.
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Hygen, H. O., C. F. Øyen et A. J. Almås. « Assessment of climate vulnerability in the Norwegian built environment ». Advances in Science and Research 6, no 1 (30 mai 2011) : 151–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/asr-6-151-2011.
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Abstract. The main trends expected for the change of Norwegian climate for this century are increasing temperatures, precipitation and wind. This indicates a probable increase of climate-related risks to the Norwegian built environment. Through co-operation between the Norwegian Meteorological Institute and SINTEF Building and Infrastructure, building and climate information have been combined to estimate changes in strain to the built environment due to climate change. The results show that the risk of wood decay will increase for the whole country. Almost two million buildings will be subject to an increase in risk of wood decay from medium to high level. Similar analyses have been performed for other climate indices, demonstrating a clear increase in potential damages due to water and humidity, while frost damage probably will decrease.
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Ulises, Ramírez-Sánchez Hermes, Fajardo-Montiel Aida Lucia, García-Guadalupe Mario Enrique et Ulloa-Godínez Héctor Hugo. « Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment in Jalisco : A Comprehensive Analysis ». International Journal of Environment and Climate Change 14, no 6 (7 juin 2024) : 115–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.9734/ijecc/2024/v14i64215.
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The changes in temperatures and precipitation estimated for the different climate change scenarios will have an impact on all sectors in the world, Mexico and Jalisco. Variations in temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, melting glaciers, expansion of water bodies due to thermal expansion and the rise in sea level in recent decades in the intertropical zone are evidence of the country's high vulnerability to climate change. Significant increases in temperature, decreases in precipitation and runoff will cause scarcity and pressure on water resources, health, agriculture, livestock, marine ecosystems, industry, biodiversity, urban development, energy, housing, mobility, economy, waste, among others. Aims: The objective of this study is to present regional projections of temperature and precipitation in Jalisco, under the IPCC's AR6 climate change scenarios, improving the projections of the Oceanic-Atmospheric General Circulation Models and estimating the possible impacts of climate change in Jalisco. Methodology: A total of 27 CLIMDEX climate change indices were calculated, using 197 stations distributed in the 125 municipalities of the State of Jalisco. For the regional modeling, the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) model was used, developed by the Hadley Center of the United Kingdom, in a domain that covers the west of the Mexican Republic with a resolution of 25 km in the period 2020-2099. Results: Regional models for Jalisco show temperature increase between 0.5 to 5°C, while % precipitation will range between -20.3 and 13.5% depending on the scenario and period of analysis. The increase in temperature will cause soil moisture deficits, water stress, sparse vegetation and semi-permanent meteorological drought. Under these scenarios, the entire country is expected to be subject to moderate to extremely severe droughts that will last and worsen between now and the end of the century. Regional modelling shows significant impacts on the water sector with low water availability; in the agricultural sector with a decline in the productivity of the state's crops, mainly affecting small landowners and subsistence farmers. As for livestock, the increase in temperatures will decrease the availability of water and feed; cattle will enter heat stress and increase respiratory and heart rate, which will decrease productivity and with the possible disappearance of livestock areas. In terms of biodiversity, it is estimated that between 20-30% of plant and animal species are at greater risk of migration and/or extinction due to temperature increase >3 ºC. The vulnerability of biodiversity will occur due to the weakening of ecosystems, forest fires, land use change and the decline of water resources. The energy sector will be affected by the increase in temperature, greater demand for energy, decrease in energy production, the main effects will be on its distribution. The health sector will be affected due to the presence of heat waves, heat stress and heat stroke; diseases due to high concentrations of pollutants, respiratory, cardio-vascular, vector-borne and contaminated water diseases, neurological and/or mental diseases, among others. Children, the elderly, and people with chronic and degenerative diseases will be the most vulnerable groups. All areas of the state will be impacted, although in a differentiated way, the lack of availability of water will occur throughout the state, agriculture and livestock in the area of Los Altos, floods and loss of biodiversity in coastal areas, the central area will concentrate most of the impacts due to the high population density. Conclusion: it is estimated that Jalisco's vulnerability to climate change is high to very high in all sectors and in all regions of the State of Jalisco.