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Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Earthquake Scenario »

Auteur : Grafiati

Publié le 1 avril 2023

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Articles de revues sur le sujet "Earthquake Scenario"

Isik, Ercan, Coskun Sagir, Zuhal Tozlu et Umit Salim Ustaoglu. « Determination of Urban Earthquake Risk for Kırşehir, Turkey ». Earth Sciences Research Journal 23, n^o 3 (1 juillet 2019) : 237–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.15446/esrj.v23n3.60255.

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Predicting the outcomes of earthquakes before they occur is one of the fundamental components of modern disaster management. Loss estimation analyses have an important place at the assessment stage of earthquakes and in estimation of losses that earthquakes may lead to. With these analyses, it is possible to access information that is relevant to potential damages and losses. In this paper, loss estimation analyses were carried out by using the earthquake scenario which foresaw a previous earthquake that was experienced in an around Kırşehir which is seismically active and located in the Central Anatolia Region in Turkey. The 1938 Akpınar earthquake which occurred in and around the province of Kırşehir was taken into consideration as an earthquak escenario, and loss estimation analyses were conducted for this earthquake scenario. In this paper, significant contributions will be made for preparation of an earthquake master plan and risk management plan for Kırşehir. Besides, studies on reduction of earthquake losses in the region may utilise these results.

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Maharjan, Sony, et Shobha Shrestha. « An Assessment of Earthquake Risk in Thecho of Kathmandu Valley Nepal : Scenario and Reality ». Geographical Journal of Nepal 11 (3 avril 2018) : 127–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/gjn.v11i0.19553.

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Natural disaster cannot be stopped but its effect can be minimized or avoided by adopting technology and necessary human adjustment. Earthquake is a natural event which occurs without early warning signs. Computer based earthquake scenarios are used worldwide to describe and estimate the damage from potential earthquakes. The current study is an attempt to explore potential risk with respect to physical infrastructure and assess modeled and actual physical damage and human loss caused by different earthquake scenario and actual 2015 earthquake event in Thecho of Kathmandu valley. The earthquake scenario is based on two nearest fault lines. Risk Assessment Tools for the Diagnosis of Urban Seismic Risk (RADIUS) method has been applied for estimation of potential building damage and casualties..The research has adopted integrated approach using secondary and primary data sources such as field observation, key informant survey and building survey through purposive random sampling.The study found that potential building damage estimated by RADIUS for Gorkha 2015 earthquake scenario and North-west (Khokana) are lower than the actual post-earthquake assessment whereas North earthquake scenario resulted higher loss. Actual damage caused by 2015 earthquake compared to modeled damage from RADIUS is found higher because additional damaged were made by successive aftershocks. Spatial distribution of potential building damage for earthquake scenarios and actual 2015 earthquake event is also variable. North-Nuwakot Earthquake Scenario resulted more hazardous than the North-Khokana scenario though the location of epicenter is relatively farther with high intensity. The study concluded that though earthquake occurrence and disaster is still less predictable risk assessment tools like RADIUS and mitigation measures based on such is important for reducing risk of earthquake disaster.The Geographical Journal of NepalVol. 11: 127-136, 2018

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Maeda, Takahiro, et Hiroyuki Fujiwara. « Seismic Hazard Visualization from Big Simulation Data : Cluster Analysis of Long-Period Ground-Motion Simulation Data ». Journal of Disaster Research 12, n^o 2 (16 mars 2017) : 233–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2017.p0233.

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This paper describes a method of extracting the relation between the ground-motion characteristics of each area and a seismic source model, based on ground-motion simulation data output in planar form for many earthquake scenarios, and the construction of a parallel distributed processing system where this method is implemented. The extraction is realized using two-stage clustering. In the first stage, the ground-motion indices and scenario parameters are used as input data to cluster the earthquake scenarios within each evaluation mesh. In the second stage, the meshes are clustered based on the similarity of earthquake-scenario clustering. Because the mesh clusters can be correlated to the geographical space, it is possible to extract the relation between the ground-motion characteristics of each area and the scenario parameters by examining the relation between the mesh clusters and scenario clusters obtained by the two-stage clustering. The results are displayed visually; they are saved as GeoTIFF image files. The system was applied to the long-period ground-motion simulation data for hypothetical megathrust earthquakes in the Nankai Trough. This confirmed that the relation between the extracted ground-motion characteristics of each area and scenario parameters is in agreement with the results of ground-motion simulations.

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Wirth, Erin A., Alex Grant, Nasser A. Marafi et Arthur D. Frankel. « Ensemble ShakeMaps for Magnitude 9 Earthquakes on the Cascadia Subduction Zone ». Seismological Research Letters 92, n^o 1 (18 novembre 2020) : 199–211. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0220200240.

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Abstract We develop ensemble ShakeMaps for various magnitude 9 (M 9) earthquakes on the Cascadia megathrust. Ground-shaking estimates are based on 30 M 9 Cascadia earthquake scenarios, which were selected using a logic-tree approach that varied the hypocenter location, down-dip rupture limit, slip distribution, and location of strong-motion-generating subevents. In a previous work, Frankel et al. (2018) used a hybrid approach (i.e., 3D deterministic simulations for frequencies <1 Hz and stochastic synthetics for frequencies >1 Hz) and uniform site amplification factors to create broadband seismograms from this set of 30 earthquake scenarios. Here, we expand on this work by computing site-specific amplification factors for the Pacific Northwest and applying these factors to the ground-motion estimates derived from Frankel et al. (2018). In addition, we use empirical ground-motion models (GMMs) to expand the ground-shaking estimates beyond the original model extent of Frankel et al. (2018) to cover all of Washington State, Oregon, northern California, and southern British Columbia to facilitate the use of these ensemble ShakeMaps in region-wide risk assessments and scenario planning exercises. Using this updated set of 30 M 9 Cascadia earthquake scenarios, we present ensemble ShakeMaps for the median, 2nd, 16th, 84th, and 98th percentile ground-motion intensity measures. Whereas traditional scenario ShakeMaps are based on a single hypothetical earthquake rupture, our ensemble ShakeMaps take advantage of a logic-tree approach to estimating ground motions from multiple earthquake rupture scenarios. In addition, 3D earthquake simulations capture important features such as strong ground-motion amplification in the Pacific Northwest’s sedimentary basins, which are not well represented in the empirical GMMs that compose traditional scenario ShakeMaps. Overall, our results highlight the importance of strong-motion-generating subevents for coastal sites, as well as the amplification of long-period ground shaking in deep sedimentary basins, compared with previous scenario ShakeMaps for Cascadia.

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Maeda, Takahiro, Hiroyuki Fujiwara, Sho Akagi et Toshihiko Hayakawa. « Cluster Analysis of the Long-Period Ground-Motion Simulation Data : Application of the Sagami Trough Megathrust Earthquake Scenarios ». Journal of Disaster Research 14, n^o 3 (28 mars 2019) : 435–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2019.p0435.

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A clustering method that classifies earthquake scenarios and the local area on the basis of similarities in the spatial distribution of ground motion was applied to long-period ground-motion data computed by a seismic wave propagation simulation. The simulation utilized a large number of seismic source models and a three-dimensional velocity structure model in which megathrust earthquakes in the Sagami Trough were assumed. The relationship between the clusters, earthquake scenario parameters, and the velocity structure model was examined. In addition, the relationship between the earthquake scenario clusters for a case in which actual strong-motion observation points were treated as a mesh and those for a case in which an entire set of meshes was investigated, and a spatial interpolation method that estimated a ground-motion distribution from strong-motion observation data was examined.

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Maeda, Takahiro, Hiroyuki Fujiwara, Toshihiko Hayakawa, Satsuki Shimono et Sho Akagi. « Cluster Analysis of Long-Period Ground-Motion Simulation Data with Application to Nankai Trough Megathrust Earthquake Scenarios ». Journal of Disaster Research 13, n^o 2 (19 mars 2018) : 254–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2018.p0254.

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We developed a clustering method combining principal component analysis and the k-means algorithm, which classifies earthquake scenarios based on the similarity of the spatial distribution of earthquake ground-motion simulation data generated for many earthquake scenarios, and applied it to long-period ground-motion simulation data for Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake scenarios. Values for peak ground velocity and relative velocity response at approximately 80,000 locations in 369 earthquake scenarios were represented by 15 principal components each, and earthquake scenarios were categorized into 30 clusters. In addition, based on clustering results, we determined that extracting relationships between principal components and scenario parameters is possible. Furthermore, by utilizing these relationships, it may be possible to easily estimate the approximate ground-motion distribution from the principal components of arbitrary sets of scenario parameters.

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Ma, Feng, Guangsheng Zhao, Xingyu Gao et Xiaojing Niu. « Spatial Distribution of Tsunami Hazard Posed by Earthquakes along the Manila Trench ». Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 10, n^o 10 (7 octobre 2022) : 1449. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jmse10101449.

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Quantitative probability has been computed for the tsunami hazard posed by earthquakes from the Manila Trench, which has been regarded as a huge threat in the South China Sea. This study provides a spatial distribution of the tsunami hazard covering the affected area with a spatial resolution of 0.1° for disaster prevention of islands and continental coasts. The quantitative probability of the tsunami hazard is computed by an efficient model, which can realize a large amount of potential tsunami scenarios analysis in order to consider the randomness and uncertainty in earthquake magnitude, source location and focal depth. In the model, for each potential tsunami scenario, the occurrence probability of the corresponding earthquake and the intensity of tsunami waves at each target location are computed. The occurrence probability of each scenario is estimated based on the historical earthquake records. Then, the subsequent tsunami caused by each scenario is computed using a new, efficient approach, instead of direct simulation using an ocean dynamics model. A total of 1,380,000 scenarios are computed in order to obtain a stable statistical result. Based on the results, the spatial distribution of the tsunami hazard is discussed and high-hazard regions along the coast have been identified.

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Byers, William G. « Railroad Damage Scenario Development ». Earthquake Spectra 27, n^o 2 (mai 2011) : 477–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.3574223.

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The approaches necessary for estimating earthquake effects on railroads are different for developing design criteria or post-earthquake response policies and for developing railroad damage scenarios. In developing design criteria or post-earthquake response policies, the probability of ground motions exceeding a particular level is a primary concern. Developing damage scenarios, on the other hand, involves describing hypothetical effects for assumed ground motions. The identification of potential problems is the greatest benefit of disaster scenario development to railroads. Developing the Great Southern California ShakeOut Scenario revealed areas in which advance planning and arrangements by the affected railroads could reduce delays in repair work or improve the efficiency of operation during recovery. These include arranging emergency waivers for permits and similar governmental requirements, developing arrangements to accommodate earthquake-related conflicts between commuter and freight operations, advance arrangements for emergency use of helicopters, and physically securing equipment at the San Bernardino dispatching center to reduce damage.

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Babayev, G., A. Ismail-Zadeh et J. L. Le Mouël. « Scenario-based earthquake hazard and risk assessment for Baku (Azerbaijan) ». Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 10, n^o 12 (22 décembre 2010) : 2697–712. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-2697-2010.

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Abstract. A rapid growth of population, intensive civil and industrial building, land and water instabilities (e.g. landslides, significant underground water level fluctuations), and the lack of public awareness regarding seismic hazard contribute to the increase of vulnerability of Baku (the capital city of the Republic of Azerbaijan) to earthquakes. In this study, we assess an earthquake risk in the city determined as a convolution of seismic hazard (in terms of the surface peak ground acceleration, PGA), vulnerability (due to building construction fragility, population features, the gross domestic product per capita, and landslide's occurrence), and exposure of infrastructure and critical facilities. The earthquake risk assessment provides useful information to identify the factors influencing the risk. A deterministic seismic hazard for Baku is analysed for four earthquake scenarios: near, far, local, and extreme events. The seismic hazard models demonstrate the level of ground shaking in the city: PGA high values are predicted in the southern coastal and north-eastern parts of the city and in some parts of the downtown. The PGA attains its maximal values for the local and extreme earthquake scenarios. We show that the quality of buildings and the probability of their damage, the distribution of urban population, exposure, and the pattern of peak ground acceleration contribute to the seismic risk, meanwhile the vulnerability factors play a more prominent role for all earthquake scenarios. Our results can allow elaborating strategic countermeasure plans for the earthquake risk mitigation in the Baku city.

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Kiratzi, A., Z. Roumelioti, Ch Benetatos, N. Theodulidis, A. Savvaidis, A. Panou, I. N. Tziavos et al. « SEISIMPACT-THES : A SCENARIO EARTHQUAKE AFFECTING THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT OF THE PREFECTURE OF THESSALONIKI ». Bulletin of the Geological Society of Greece 36, n^o 3 (1 janvier 2004) : 1412. http://dx.doi.org/10.12681/bgsg.16529.

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In the framework of the "SEISIMPACT-THES" project (Koutoupes et al., 2004; Savvaidis et al., 2004) a GIS database has been designed to include information on a wide range of components related to seismic risk within the broader area of the prefecture of Thessaloniki. One of these components refers to the distribution of strong ground motion produced by large earthquakes and the ability of a potential future user of the database to retrieve information regarding the distribution of strong ground motion from past destructive earthquakes in the area of Thessaloniki, as well as relative information for realistic future scenario earthquakes in the same area. The selection of future scenario earthquakes that may affect this urban region of interest is based on a combined review of historical data, previous probabilistic and deterministic hazard assessments, seismotectonic and microseismicity studies, relocated seismicity in northern Greece and the experience gained from worldwide research. In this study we present the results from hypothetical rupture of one fault that is located at the suburbs of the city, the Asvestochori fault. Empirical relations applicable to Greece (Papazachos & Papazachou 2003), as well as seismicity information are combined to determine the dimensions of the scenario earthquake source. Strong ground motion for the selected scenario is simulated using the stochastic method for finite faults (Beresnev and Atkinson, 1997). Uncertainties due to unknown parameters such as the rupture initiation point and the distribution of slip on the fault plane are taken into account by examining a large number of random scenarios. The average values from these multiple scenarios are then used to compile maps of strong ground motion parameters (e.g. peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration). Although the examined scenario earthquake is moderate in size (Mw 5.2), the level of the resulting strong ground motion parameters is indicative of the potential destructiveness of the examined source. Due to the simplicity in the underlying assumptions of the stochastic method, the results of this study are a first-order approximation to the problem of defining expected shaking in the wider area of Thessaloniki. Other strong motion simulation methods of more deterministic character will also be applied for the same purpose in the framework of the SEISIMPACT-THES project.

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Thèses sur le sujet "Earthquake Scenario"

Robinson, Thomas Russell. « Assessment of coseismic landsliding from an Alpine fault earthquake scenario, New Zealand ». Thesis, University of Canterbury. Department of Geological Sciences, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/10029.

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Disasters can occur without warning and severely test society’s capacity to cope, significantly altering the relationship between society and the built and natural environments. The scale of a disaster is a direct function of the pre-event actions and decisions taken by society. Poor pre-event planning is a major contributor to disaster, while effective pre-event planning can substantially reduce, and perhaps even avoid, the disaster. Developing and undertaking effective planning is therefore a vital component of disaster risk management in order to achieve meaningful societal resilience. Disaster scenarios present arguably the best and most effective basis to plan an effective emergency response to future disasters. For effective emergency response planning, disaster scenarios must be as realistic as possible. Yet for disasters resulting from natural hazards, intricately linked secondary hazards and effects make development of realistic scenarios difficult. This is specially true for large earthquakes in mountainous terrain. The primary aim of this thesis is therefore to establish a detailed and realistic disaster scenario for a Mw8.0 earthquake on the plate boundary Alpine fault in the South Island of New Zealand with specific emphasis on secondary effects. Geologic evidence of re-historic earthquakes on this fault suggest widespread and large-scale landsliding has resulted throughout the Southern Alps, yet, currently, no attempts to quantitatively model this landsliding have been undertaken. This thesis therefore provides a first attempt at quantitative assessments of the likely scale and impacts of landsliding from a future Mw8.0 Alpine fault earthquake. Modelling coseismic landsliding in regions lacking historic inventories and geotechnical data (e.g. New Zealand) is challenging. The regional factors that control the spatial distribution of landsliding however, are shown herein to be similar across different environments. Observations from the 1994 Northridge, 1999 Chi-Chi, and 2008 Wenchuan earthquakes identified MM intensity, slope angle and position, and distance from active faults and streams as factors controlling the spatial distribution of landsliding. Using fuzzy logic in GIS, these factors are able to successfully model the spatial distribution of coseismic landsliding from both the 2003 and 2009 Fiordland earthquakes in New Zealand. This method can therefore be applied to estimate the scale of landsliding from scenario earthquakes such as an Alpine fault event. Applied to an Mw8.0 Alpine fault earthquake, this suggests that coseismic landsliding could affect an area >50,000 km2 with likely between 40,000 and 110,000 landslides occurring. Between 1,400 and 4,000 of these are expected to present a major hazard. The environmental impacts from this landsliding would be severe, particularly in west-draining river catchments, and sediment supply to rivers in some catchments may exceed 50 years of background rates. Up to 2 km3 of total landslide debris is expected, and this will have serious and long-term consequences. Fluvial remobilisation of this material could result in average aggradation depths on active alluvial fans and floodplains of 1 m, with maximum depths substantially larger. This is of particular concern to the agriculture industry, which relies on the fertile soils on many of the active alluvial fans affected. This thesis also investigated the potential impacts from such landsliding on critical infrastructure. The State Highway and electrical transmission networks are shown to be particularly exposed. Up to 2,000 wooden pole and 30 steel pylon supports for the transmission network are highly exposed, resulting in >23,000 people in the West Coast region being exposed to power loss. At least 240 km of road also has high exposure, primarily on SH6 between Hokitika and Haast, and on Arthur’s and Lewis Passes. More than 2,750 local residents in Westland District are exposed to isolation by road as a result. The Grey River valley region is identified as the most critical section of the State Highway network and pre-event mitigation is strongly recommended to ensure the road and bridges here can withstand strong shaking and liquefaction hazards. If this section of the network can remain functional post-earthquake, the emergency response could be based out of Wellington using Nelson as a forward operating base with direct road access to some of the worst-affected locations. However, loss of functionality of this section of road will result in >24,000 people becoming isolated across almost the entire West Coast region. This thesis demonstrates the importance and potential value of pre-event emergency response planning, both for the South Island community for an Alpine fault earthquake, and globally for all such hazards. The case study presented demonstrates that realistic estimates of potential coseismic landsliding and its impacts are possible, and the methods developed herein can be applied to other large mountainous earthquakes. A model for developing disaster scenarios in collaboration with a wide range of societal groups is presented and shown to be an effective method for emergency response planning, and is applicable to any hazard and location globally. This thesis is therefore a significant contribution towards understanding mountainous earthquake hazards and emergency response planning.

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Ely, Geoffrey Palarz. « A method for dynamic earthquake rupture simulation with applications to a large Southern San Andreas scenario ». Diss., Connect to a 24 p. preview or request complete full text in PDF format. Access restricted to UC campuses, 2008. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/ucsd/fullcit?p3303629.

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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of California, San Diego, 2008.
Title from first page of PDF file (viewed June 12, 2008). Available via ProQuest Digital Dissertations. Vita. Includes bibliographical references.

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Toland, Joseph Charles. « A Model for Emergency Logistical Resource Requirements| Supporting Socially Vulnerable Populations Affected by the (M) 7.8 San Andreas Earthquake Scenario in Los Angeles County, California ». Thesis, University of Southern California, 2018. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=10936557.

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Federal, state and local officials are planning for a (M) 7.8 San Andreas Earthquake Scenario in the Southern California Catastrophic Earthquake Response Plan that would require initial emergency food and water resources to support from 2.5 million to 3.5 million people over an eight-county region in Southern California. However, a model that identifies locations of affected populations—with consideration for social vulnerability, estimates of their emergency logistical resource requirements, and their resource requirements over time—has yet to be developed for the emergency response plan.

The aim of this study was to develop a modeling methodology for emergency logistical resource requirements of affected populations in the (M) 7.8 San Andreas Earthquake Scenario in Southern California. These initial resource requirements, defined at three-days post-event and predicted through a probabilistic risk model, were then used to develop a relative risk ratio and to estimate resources requirements over time. The model results predict an “at-risk” population of 3,352,995 in the eight-county study region. In Los Angeles County, the model predicts an “at- risk” population of 1,421,415 with initial requirements for 2,842,830 meals and 4,264,245 liters of water. The model also indicates that communities such as Baldwin Park, Lancaster-Palmdale and South Los Angeles will have long-term resource requirements.

Through the development of this modeling methodology and its applications, the planning capability of the Southern California Catastrophic Earthquake Response Plan is enhanced and provides a more effective baseline for emergency managers to target emergency logistical resources to communities with the greatest need. The model can be calibrated, validated, generalized, and applied in other earthquake or multi-hazard scenarios through subsequent research.

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Magrin, Andrea. « Multi-scale seismic hazard scenarios ». Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi di Trieste, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10077/8620.

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2011/2012
Seismic hazard assessment can be performed following a neo-deterministic approach (NDSHA), which allows to give a realistic description of the seismic ground motion due to an earthquake of given distance and magnitude. The approach is based on modelling techniques that have been developed from a detailed knowledge of both the seismic source process and the propagation of seismic waves. This permits to define a set of earthquake scenarios and to simulate the associated synthetic signals without having to wait for a strong event to occur. NDSHA can be applied at different geographic scale with different detail levels of modelling. At local scale the source and site characteristics can be take account, whereas at the regional scale seismograms at the nodes of a regular grid are computed. Finite fault simulation is needed to compute realistic ground motions close to a ruptured fault. No reasonable deterministic prediction for many details of a future fault motion can be expected and their variability can be treated in practice only from a statistical viewpoint. Therefore, their effect is simulated through Monte-Carlo approach. To test the accuracy of the method, the L’Aquila earthquake occurred on April 6, 2009 has been modelled. The use of a realistic model for the representation of the extended fault introduces a stochastic element in NDSHA. So the variability due to the stochastic component of seismic source has been evaluated. In standard NDSHA at regional scale, seismograms are computed for an upper frequency content of 1 Hz. The use of a more realistic source model than the scaled point source that takes account of effective duration of rupture process allowed to extend the maximum frequency of computation of seismograms of national scale maps to 10 Hz. A first estimation of uncertainty due to the random representation of the source in national scale maps has been obtained by parametric tests on EU-India Grid infrastructure. NDSHA defines the hazard as the maximum ground motion at the site and it does not supply information about the frequency of occurrence of the expected ground motion. The standard procedure of NDSHA has been modified here, to take into account the additional information of recurrence. The introduction of recurrence estimates in NDSHA allows the generation of ground motion maps for specified return periods that permits a straightforward comparison between the NDSHA and the PSHA maps. Furthermore the map of the recurrence has been associated with standard map of ground motion.
La valutazione della pericolosità sismica può essere effettuata seguendo un approccio neo-deterministico (NDSHA) che permette di dare una descrizione realistica del moto del suolo dovuto a un terremoto di data distanza e magnitudo. L’approccio è basato su tecniche di modellazione che sono state sviluppate da una conoscenza dettagliata sia della sorgente che della propagazione delle onde sismiche. Questo permette di definire un set di terremoti di scenario e di simulare i segnali sintetici associati senza dover aspettare l’accadimento di un forte evento. La metodologia neo-deterministica può essere applicata a diverse scale geografiche cui corrispondono differenti livelli di dettaglio nella modellazione. A scala locale è possibile tenere conto delle caratteristiche specifiche della sorgente e del sito considerati, mentre a scala regionale vengono calcolati i sismogrammi ai nodi di una griglia regolare. Per simulare in modo realistico il moto del suolo in prossimità di una faglia è necessario usare un modello di sorgente estesa. Molti dettagli del processo di rottura sulla sorgente non possono essere predetti in modo deterministico e la loro variabilità può essere trattata solo da un punto di vista statistico. Di conseguenza i loro effetti vengono simulati attraverso una approccio Monte-Carlo. Per testare l’accuratezza del metodo è stato modellato il terremoto dell’Aquila del 6 aprile 2009. L’uso di un modello realistico di sorgente per la rappresentazione della sorgente estesa introduce un elemento stocastico nel metodo neo-deterministico. Si è quindi valutata la variabilità dei valori di picco dovuta alla modellazione della sorgente. Nella metodologia neo-deterministica scala regionale i sismogrammi vengono calcolati con una frequenza massima di 1 Hz. L’uso di un modello di sorgente piu` realistico rispetto a quello della sorgente puntiforme in grado di tener in conto dell’effettiva durata del processo di rottura ha consentito di estendere la frequenza massima di calcolo dei sismogrammi delle mappe di pericolosità nazionali a 10 Hz. Una prima stima dell’incertezza legata alla simulazione stocastica della sorgente sulle mappe a scala nazionale è stata ottenuta con l’uso di test parametrici condotti utilizzando l’infrastruttura informatica EU-India Grid. Il metodo neo-deterministico definisce la pericolosità come il massimo scuotimento al sito e non fornisce alcuna informazione sulla ricorrenza del moto del suolo atteso. La procedura è stata modificata per tener conto dell’informazione aggiuntiva della ricorrenza. In questo modo è stato possibile generare delle mappe di scuotimento per specifici periodi di ritorno che consentono un diretto confronto con le mappe probabilistiche. Inoltre alle mappe di massimo scuotimento sono state associate le rispettive mappe di ricorrenza del moto del suolo.
XXV Ciclo
1983

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Adachi, Takao. « Impact of cascading failures on performance assessment of civil infrastructure systems ». Diss., Available online, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2007, 2007. http://etd.gatech.edu/theses/available/etd-03052007-095214/.

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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2007.
Bruce R. Ellingwood, Committee Chair ; Abdul-Hamid Zureick, Committee Member ; James I. Craig, Committee Member ; Reginald DesRoches, Committee Member ; Kenneth M. Will, Committee Member.

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Panzera, Francesco. « Approaches to earthquake scenarios validation using seismic site response ». Doctoral thesis, Università di Catania, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10761/1084.

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A seismic hazard assessment was carried out for the Catania and Siracusa towns providing a comprehensive re-examination and re-processing of all the available seismic data. The site approach and the seismotectonic one were used and compared. The hazard assessment, using both methods, was performed following a logic-tree approach in order to consider and reduce the epistemic uncertainties. The combined use and comparison of these approaches is recommended since it allows to verify the robustness of the hazard estimates and allowed us to obtain useful elements to define the seismic hazard in Catania and Siracusa. Experimental data and numerical modeling were used to study the effect of local geology on the seismic response in the Catania area. Available boreholes data and elastic parameters were used to reconstruct a geotechnical model in order to perform 1D numerical modeling. Seismic urban scenarios were simulated considering destructive (Mw=7.0), strong (Mw=6.2) and moderate (Mw=5.7) earthquakes. PGA and spectral acceleration at different periods were obtained in the urban area through the equivalent linear numerical code EERA, and contour maps of different levels of shaking were drawn. Standard and horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios were achieved making use of a dataset of 172 seismic events recorded at ten stations located on the main outcropping lithotypes. Spectral ratios inferred from earthquake data were compared with theoretical transfer functions. Both experimental and numerical results confirm the role of the geologic and morphologic setting of Catania. A study aimed to investigate on the dynamic properties of main lithotypes outcropping in the Siracusa area and their relationships with the local seismic response was performed. Non-invasive seismic prospecting techniques using the vertical component of surface waves (MASW and ReMi) were adopted, as well as ambient noise measurements, processed through the Nakamura technique. Moreover, a cluster analysis was performed to subdivide into homogeneous groups the experimentally obtained noise spectral ratios. Results pointed out that the use of combined different methods provides a more robust way to characterized the investigated soils and to reduce the problems linked to the non-uniqueness of solutions during the interpretation of geophysical data. The role of local geology and topography on the site response of a small hill, located in the northern part of Catania, was investigated. Ambient noise and earthquake data were processed through standard and horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios. Directional effects were also investigated by computing the spectral ratios after rotating the horizontal components of motion and performing polarization analysis. Results of noise and earthquakes analysis, although show significant differences in amplitude, are comparable in frequency, especially in the sedimentary terrains. Pronounced directional effects are mostly observed on the slopes rather than at the hill top. Our findings appear linked to the complex wavefield generated by the lithologic heterogeneities existing in the area which seem to have a stronger influence with respect to the simple topographic effect. Seismic noise recorded by mobile stations in the Ortigia peninsula (downtown Siracusa) was analyzed through H/V spectral ratios, to investigate local site effects. Moreover, shear wave velocities were investigated through non-invasive techniques (MASW and ReMi) in order to assess the theoretical resonant frequency of the hill. Experimental results coming out from the spectral ratios show peaks in the frequency range 1.0-3.0 Hz which are consistent with the theoretical resonance frequency at Ortigia. The H/V azimuthal spectral analysis shows a clearly predominant E-W directional effect, transversal to the main axis of the peninsula, which is also confirmed by the polarization analysis in the time domain.

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Ewald, Michael. « Numerical Simulations of Earthquake Scenarios in the Lower Rhine Embayment Area ». Diss., lmu, 2006. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:19-53460.

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Weston, Antonia-Jane Sarah. « Earthquake impact scenarios : a GIS-based case study for Colchester, UK ». Thesis, University of East Anglia, 2004. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.410077.

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SANTARELLI, SILVIA. « A behavioural approach to the earthquake safety planning of historical centres. Development of innovative methodologies and tools for planners and evacuees ». Doctoral thesis, Università Politecnica delle Marche, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/11566/269603.

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Soprattutto nei centri storici, la sicurezza degli evacuanti dopo un terremoto è collegata all'ambiente circostante ma diversi fattori possono ostacolare l’individuazione e il raggiungimento delle zone sicure. Inoltre, la scarsa familiarità col luogo, il piano d’emergenza e i percorsi sicuri, aumenta drasticamente le possibilità d’incidente nel mettersi in salvo. Studi sulla valutazione del rischio, la pianificazione d’emergenza e la gestione dell'evacuazione hanno avuto grande sviluppo, ma sono principalmente focalizzati sull'emergenza antincendio in ambienti indoor. Solo recentemente sono state emanate linee guida specifiche per l'emergenza sismica in contesti urbani. Tuttavia, sono approcci piuttosto semplificati che non supportano efficacemente i sopravvissuti. In tale contesto, la capacità di evacuare autonomamente e mettersi in salvo, chiamata anche "self-help", è la principale risorsa che i sopravvissuti possono attuare. Il presente lavoro inizia analizzando la letteratura consolidata, per poi proporre nuove metodologie per la pianificazione dell’emergenza e l'evacuazione post-sisma nei centri storici. Adottando un approccio prestazionale, sono valutate le criticità derivanti dalle interazioni uomo-ambiente e proposte possibili soluzioni. A tal fine, sono stati definiti diversi campi di studio ed offerti nuovi metodi e strumenti laddove necessario. I metodi proposti, applicati a un caso di studio, sono testati utilizzando un software di simulazione comportamentale specializzato per l'emergenza sismica. Degli indicatori prestazionali sono adottati per quantificare le performances evacuative e valutare l'efficacia dei metodi di pianificazione e di guida proposti. La combinazione degli studi proposti con metodi tradizionali potrebbe essere utile ai pianificatori di emergenza durante le fasi di analisi e progettazione. Inoltre, può essere una pratica di ottimizzazione considerevole in caso di risorse limitate o in scenari con vincoli rilevanti come quelli storici.
When an earthquake occurs, survivors start to evacuate. Especially in historical centres, their safety is connected to the surrounding environment but several factors can increase their difficulty to locate and reach safe zones. Furthermore, the scarce familiarity with the place, the emergency plan and the safe paths, drastically raise the probability they can be involved into fatalities while trying to get themselves safe. Studies about risk evaluation, emergency planning and evacuation management had a large development but they have been focused especially for fire emergency and indoor environment. Only recently, specific guidelines for earthquake emergency in urban scenarios have been produced. However, they are quite simplified approaches focusing on rescuers’ perspective, not effectively supporting survivors. In a such context, the ability to autonomously evacuate and gain safe place, also called ‘self-help’, is the main resource survivors can carry out. The current work starts analysing the consolidated literature, then, new methodologies for urban emergency planning and post-earthquake evacuation in historical centres are proposed. A performance-based approach is adopted to evaluate the criticalities deriving from the men-environment interactions and to offer possible solutions. To this aim, several fields of study are defined and new methodologies and tools are offered where necessaries. The proposed methods, applied to a case study, are tested using a behavioural simulation software specialized for earthquake emergency. Key Performance Indicators are adopted to quantify the evacuation performances and evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed planning and guidance methods. Combining the proposed studies with traditional methods could be useful to emergency planners during the analyse and designing phases. Furthermore, it can be a considerable optimization practice in case of limited resources, or in scenarios with relevant constrains as the historical ones.

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Chang, Yu-Ru, et 張育儒. « Broadband ground motion simulation:Case studies of 2010 Jiashian earthquake andHengchun earthquake scenario ». Thesis, 2012. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/g49772.

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碩士
國立臺灣大學
海洋研究所
100
One of the most important issues of the recent development of seismology and earthquake engineering is the capability to predict strong ground motion for future large earthquake based on state-of-the-art knowledge and observations. However, it is very difficult to achieve realistic ground motion response by numerical simulation due to the poor resolution of underground structure and high computational consuming. In this study, we present three approaches to extend the simulating frequency band and to establish the feature of realistic strong ground motion pattern. There are two major parts in this study. First part focuses on the developments and tests of the three approaches to realize broadband ground motion simulation. The three approaches are (1) Hybrid method, (2) Frequency ratio method and (3) High frequency numerical simulation. These three approaches are applied on the 2010 Jiashian (M6.4) and 2009 Nanto (M5.13) earthquakes. In the second part, the hybrid broadband simulation technique is considered to apply on Hengchun scenario earthquake. Results indicate that using hybrid method with characteristic source model approach can provide a physics-based simulation result to predict strong ground motion of large earthquake that could occur in the future. The long term goal of this study will be to give contributions to the earthquake mitigation and seismic hazard assessment.

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Livres sur le sujet "Earthquake Scenario"

National Disaster Management Authority (Pakistan). Mansehra City's earthquake scenario. Islamabad : National Disaster Management Authority, 2009.

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Institute, Earthquake Engineering Research, dir. Scenario for a magnitude 7.0 earthquake on the Hayward fault. Oakland, Calif : The Institute, 1996.

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M, DePolo Craig, et Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology., dir. Planning scenario for a major earthquake in western Nevada. Reno, NV : Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology, 1996.

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1932-, Algermissen Sylvester Theodore, et Geological Survey (U.S.), dir. Probabilistic and scenario estimates of losses to dwellings in California. [Denver, CO] : Dept. of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, 1990.

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Stephen, Reichle Michael, dir. Planning scenario for a major earthquake, San Diego-Tijuana metropolitan area. Sacramento, Calif. (1416 Ninth St., Room 1341., Sacramento 95814) : California Dept. of Conservation, Division of Mines and Geology, 1990.

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M, DePolo Craig, et Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology., dir. Planning scenario for a major earthquake, Reno-Carson City Urban Corridor, western Nevada : Phase I, the scenario earthquake and associated hazards. Reno, Nev : Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology, Mackay School of Mines, University of Nevada, Reno, 1995.

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R, Toppozada Tousson, dir. Planning scenario for a major earthquake on the Newport-Inglewood fault zone. Sacramento, Calif. (1416 Ninth Street, Sacramento 95814) : California Dept. of Conservation, Division of Mines and Geology, 1988.

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Mark, Stewart, Washington (State). Emergency Management Division. et Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, dir. Scenario for a magnitude 6.7 earthquake on the Seattle Fault. Oakland, CA : Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, 2005.

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Toppozada, Tousson R. Planning scenario for a major earthquake on the San Jacinto Fault in the San Bernardino area. Sacramento, Calif. (801 K Street, MS 12-30, Sacramento 95814-3531) : California Dept. of Conservation, Division of Mines and Geology, 1993.

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V, Steinbrugge Karl, Degenkolb Henry J, Laverty Gordon L et McCarty James E, dir. Earthquake planning scenario for a magnitude 7.5 earthquake on the Hayward Fault in the San Francisco Bay area. Sacramento, Calif. (1416 9th St., Rm. 1341, Sacramento 95814) : California Dept. of Conservation, Division of Mines and Geology, 1987.

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Chapitres de livres sur le sujet "Earthquake Scenario"

Mader, George G. « Creating the Scenario and Drafting Earthquake Hazard Reduction Initiatives ». Dans Issues in Urban Earthquake Risk, 103–13. Dordrecht : Springer Netherlands, 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-8338-1_6.

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Kajitani, Yoshio, et Hirokazu Tatano. « Economic Impacts of a Nankai Megathrust Earthquake Scenario ». Dans Integrated Disaster Risk Management, 73–83. Singapore : Springer Singapore, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-2719-4_5.

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Abdo S., Teodoro. « Governmental Aspects of the Earthquake Damage Scenario Project of Quito, Ecuador ». Dans Issues in Urban Earthquake Risk, 121–24. Dordrecht : Springer Netherlands, 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-8338-1_8.

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Kumar, Ashok, et Himanshu Mittal. « Strong-Motion Instrumentation : Current Status and Future Scenario ». Dans Advances in Indian Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, 35–54. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-76855-7_3.

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Klinger, Yann, Jin-Hyuck Choi et Amaury Vallage. « Fault Branching and Long-Term Earthquake Rupture Scenario for Strike-Slip Earthquakes ». Dans Fault Zone Dynamic Processes, 217–28. Hoboken, NJ, USA : John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781119156895.ch11.

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Tselentis, A., A. Karavolas et C. Christopoulos. « The City of Patras-W.Greece : A Natural Seismological Laboratory to Perform Seismic Scenario Practices ». Dans Issues in Urban Earthquake Risk, 315–26. Dordrecht : Springer Netherlands, 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-8338-1_21.

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Oliveira, Carlos Sousa, Mónica A. Ferreira et F. Mota Sá. « Earthquake Risk Reduction : From Scenario Simulators Including Systemic Interdependency to Impact Indicators ». Dans Perspectives on European Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, 309–30. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-07118-3_9.

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Chaudhary, B. S., Ram Kumar Singh, Nupur Bhatia, Ravi Mishra, Md Ataullah Raza Khan, Juhi Yadav et Shashikanta Patairiya. « Interactive Approach for Earthquake Scenario Development and Hazards Resource Estimation ». Dans Applications and Challenges of Geospatial Technology, 121–39. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-99882-4_8.

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Finsterwalder, Jörg, Chris Chen, Alastair Tombs, Girish Prayag et C. Michael Hall. « Place Attachment in a Post-Earthquake Scenario : Some Preliminary Findings : An Abstract ». Dans Developments in Marketing Science : Proceedings of the Academy of Marketing Science, 827. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-02568-7_219.

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Rodkin, M. V., M. Yu Andreeva et E. V. Liperovskaya. « Clustering as One of Scenario of Development of Instability : An Earthquake Case ». Dans Springer Proceedings in Earth and Environmental Sciences, 263–73. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-91467-7_18.

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Actes de conférences sur le sujet "Earthquake Scenario"

Solakov, Dimcho, Stela Simeonova et Plamena Raykova. « DETERMINISTIC EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO FOR THE CITY OF VARNA ». Dans 22nd SGEM International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference 2022. STEF92 Technology, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.5593/sgem2022/1.1/s05.060.

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In the present study deterministic earthquake scenarios for the city of Varna - the thirdlargest city in Bulgaria are presented. By deterministic scenario, it is mean a representation of the severity of ground shaking over an urban area, using one or more hazard descriptors. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first step of seismic risk evaluation and society prevention. Seismic history of Varna shows that the hazard for the city is mainly influence by the earthquakes occurred in the seismogenic zone Shabla (Kaliakra fault system). The local ground shaking levels are computed using the six ground motion prediction equations (GMPE�s) for tectonically active regions that are previously selected. A reliable geotechnical zonation of the city of Varna was incorporated in the earthquake scenario generation. Deterministic ground shaking scenarios for the city of Varna are generated for two scenario earthquakes with different location and magnitudes are considered. The generated scenarios are described in terms of MSK (=EMS98) intensity, peak ground acceleration and velocity and in spectral accelerations for Sa (0.3s) and Sa (1.0s). The results in PGA and MSK intensity for scenario MW7.2 quake located on strike slip Kaliakra fault are mapped. The estimated peak ground accelerations for MW7.2 quake vary between 0.07 and 0.14 g.

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Wang, G. X., Z. Zhao et T. H. Yi. « Scenario Earthquake for Key Engineering Structures ». Dans 11th Biennial ASCE Aerospace Division International Conference on Engineering, Science, Construction, and Operations in Challenging Environments. Reston, VA : American Society of Civil Engineers, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/40988(323)145.

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Sue Wing, Ian, Dan Wei, Adam Z. Rose et Anne M. Wein. « Economic Consequences of the HayWired Earthquake Scenario ». Dans Lifelines 2022. Reston, VA : American Society of Civil Engineers, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/9780784484449.046.

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Nastev, Miroslav. « 2021 SHAKEOUT SCENARIO FOR QUEBEC CITY, CANADA ». Dans 1st Croatian Conference on Earthquake Engineering. University of Zagreb Faculty of Civil Engineering, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.5592/co/1crocee.2021.100.

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Solakov, D., S. Simeonova et P. Raykova. « Earthquake Scenario for the City of Veliko Tarnovo ». Dans 11th Congress of the Balkan Geophysical Society. European Association of Geoscientists & Engineers, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.3997/2214-4609.202149bgs19.

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Lin, Kuo-Wan, David J. Wald et Loren L. Turner. « Using ShakeCast and ShakeMap for Lifeline Post-Earthquake Response and Earthquake Scenario Planning ». Dans Technical Council on Lifeline Earthquake Engineering Conference (TCLEE) 2009. Reston, VA : American Society of Civil Engineers, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/41050(357)103.

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Gatti, Filippo, Fernando Lopez-Caballero, Lucio De Abreu Corrêa, Didier Clouteau et Roberto Paolucci. « PHYSICS-BASED SCENARIO OF THE 2007 CHUETSU-OKI EARTHQUAKE ». Dans 6th International Conference on Computational Methods in Structural Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering Methods in Structural Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering. Athens : Institute of Structural Analysis and Antiseismic Research School of Civil Engineering National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) Greece, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.7712/120117.5572.17465.

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Jianxing, Gong, Lu Chengzhao, Liu Quan et Huang Jian. « Uncertain mission planning for earthquake rescue based on scenario ». Dans 2022 IEEE 2nd International Conference on Electronic Technology, Communication and Information (ICETCI). IEEE, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icetci55101.2022.9832048.

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Hitchcock, Christopher, Stuart Nishenko, Chih-Hung Lee, Joseph Sun, Sean Sundermann, Mark Zellman et Robert Givler. « GIS-Based Seismic Hazard Mapping for Pipeline Integrity Management ». Dans 2006 International Pipeline Conference. ASMEDC, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/ipc2006-10351.

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Geographic information systems (GIS) technology enables sophisticated, numerical-based mapping of earthquake hazards, including liquefaction and landslide susceptibility, on a regional basis for pipeline systems. Existing earthquake hazard mapping was integrated with interpretation of topographic, geologic, hydrologic, and geotechnical data to update an earthquake hazard database for Pacific Gas & Electric Company’s California Gas Transmission (CGT), as part of the CGT Pipeline System Integrity program. The regionally consistent, map-based database covering CGT’s pipeline system in northern California allows for modeling of possible pipeline impacts from moderate to large earthquakes. GIS-based modeling that incorporates the hazard mapping is a powerful tool for planning and emergency response purposes. Specifically, near real-time models of possible pipeline damage locations can be derived from internet-based groundshaking records (USGS ShakeMap) produced after earthquakes. Scenario-based models of earthquake impacts from possible earthquakes can be used for planning purposes.

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Yalçın, D., et F. Sertçelik. « Comparison Of 1968 Bartın Earthquake Isoseismal Map And Scenario Earthquake Intensity Maps By Using Gis ». Dans 9th Congress of the Balkan Geophysical Society. Netherlands : EAGE Publications BV, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.3997/2214-4609.201702569.

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Rapports d'organisations sur le sujet "Earthquake Scenario"

Journeay, J. M., J. A. Prieto et C. E. Ventura. The Georgia Strait M7.3 scenario earthquake. Natural Resources Canada/ESS/Scientific and Technical Publishing Services, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.4095/296268.

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Paul, C., et J. F. Cassidy. Seismic hazard investigations at select DND facilities in Southwestern British Columbia : subduction, in-slab, and crustal scenarios. Natural Resources Canada/CMSS/Information Management, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4095/331199.

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Southwest British Columbia has some of the highest seismic hazard in Canada and is home to facilities owned by the Department of National Defence which support operations on the west coast of Canada. The potential impact of seismic hazards on these government facilities are investigated here. The hazard is from three primary sources: subduction interface, crustal and in-slab earthquakes. NRCan, in consultation with DRDC have produced representative earthquake scenarios for each of these sources. The subduction scenario we constructed was an M8.9 earthquake extending along the entire Cascadia Subduction Zone from 4 to 18 km depth. We used an M6.8 earthquake occurring along a 30 km fault at between 52 and 60 km depth below Boundary Bay to represent in-slab events. The final scenario, representing a crustal source, was an M6.4 along the central 47 km of the Leech River Valley-Devil's Mountain Fault system. We found that the Cascadia subduction scenario dominated the shaking hazard over much of the study region. Meanwhile, the in-slab and crustal scenarios have higher but more localized hazards in Vancouver and Victoria. In addition to the primary ground motion hazard, we also examined secondary seismic hazards: secondary amplification effects, landslides, liquefaction, surface ruptures, tsunami, flooding, fire, and aftershocks. Each of the secondary hazards had varying impacts depending on the scenario and locations within the region.

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Ellison, James F., Corbet, Thomas Frank, et Robert E. Brooks. Natural gas network resiliency to a "shakeout scenario" earthquake. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), juin 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1089984.

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Hobbs, T. E., J. M. Journeay et D. Rotheram. An earthquake scenario catalogue for Canada : a guide to using scenario hazard and risk results. Natural Resources Canada/CMSS/Information Management, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.4095/328364.

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Cavallo, Eduardo, Laura Giles Álvarez et Andrew Powell. Estimating the Potential Economic Impact of Haiti’s 2021 Earthquake. Inter-American Development Bank, septembre 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0003657.

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This paper employs a simple methodology to estimate the potential economic damages of the 2021 earthquake in Haiti. The country registered a magnitude 7.2 earthquake off the South Coast on August 14, 2021, that resulted in 2,248 deaths, 12,763 injured and substantial damages to houses and other infrastructure. An additional 329 persons remain missing. We estimate economic damages using econometric techniques and a dataset on natural disasters across a wide range of countries and over an extended time period. Based on this analysis, damages for the 2021 earthquake in Haiti are estimated to reach US$1.6 billion (9.6 percent of GDP) for a scenario with an impact of 2,500 dead or missing. We also generate confidence intervals on these results. We hope these early estimates will provide a useful input to the ongoing Post-Disaster Risk Assessment (PDNA) and will assist the government and its international partners plan efforts to assist the country in terms of relief and reconstruction.

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Hobbs, T. E., J. M. Journeay, A. S. Rao, L. Martins, P. LeSueur, M. Kolaj, M. Simionato et al. Scientific basis of Canada's first public national seismic risk model. Natural Resources Canada/CMSS/Information Management, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4095/330927.

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Natural Resources Canada, in partnership with the Global Earthquake Model Foundation, has prepared a public Canadian Seismic Risk Model to support disaster risk reduction efforts across industry and all levels of government, and to aid in Canada's adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. Developing this model has involved the creation of a national exposure inventory, Canadian specific fragility and vulnerability curves, and adjustment of the Canadian Seismic Hazard Model which forms the basis for the seismic provisions of the National Building Code of Canada. Using the Global Earthquake Model Foundation's OpenQuake Engine (OQ), risk modelling is completed using both deterministic and probabilistic risk calculations, under baseline and simulated retrofit conditions. Output results are available in all settled regions of Canada, at the scale of a neighbourhood or smaller. We report on expected shaking damage to buildings, financial losses, fatalities, and other impacts such as housing disruption and the generation of debris. This paper documents the technical details of the modelling approach including a description of novel datasets in use, as well as preliminary results for a magnitude 9.0 earthquake on the Cascadia megathrust and nation-wide 500 year expected probabilistic losses. These kinds of results, such as earthquake scenario impacts, loss exceedance curves, and annual average losses, provide a quantitative base of evidence for decision making at local, regional, and national levels.

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Hansen, R. A., et R. A. Combellick. Planning scenario earthquakes for southeast Alaska. Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys, 1998. http://dx.doi.org/10.14509/743.

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Hobbs, T. E. A selection of earthquake scenarios for government planning purposes in 2021. Natural Resources Canada/CMSS/Information Management, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4095/329397.

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Terzic, Vesna, et William Pasco. Novel Method for Probabilistic Evaluation of the Post-Earthquake Functionality of a Bridge. Mineta Transportation Institute, avril 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.31979/mti.2021.1916.

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While modern overpass bridges are safe against collapse, their functionality will likely be compromised in case of design-level or beyond design-level earthquake, which may generate excessive residual displacements of the bridge deck. Presently, there is no validated, quantitative approach for estimating the operational level of the bridge after an earthquake due to the difficulty of accurately simulating residual displacements. This research develops a novel method for probabilistic evaluation of the post-earthquake functionality state of the bridge; the approach is founded on an explicit evaluation of bridge residual displacements and associated traffic capacity by considering realistic traffic load scenarios. This research proposes a high-fidelity finite-element model for bridge columns, developed and calibrated using existing experimental data from the shake table tests of a full-scale bridge column. This finite-element model of the bridge column is further expanded to enable evaluation of the axial load-carrying capacity of damaged columns, which is critical for an accurate evaluation of the traffic capacity of the bridge. Existing experimental data from the crushing tests on the columns with earthquake-induced damage support this phase of the finite-element model development. To properly evaluate the bridge's post-earthquake functionality state, realistic traffic loadings representative of different bridge conditions (e.g., immediate access, emergency traffic only, closed) are applied in the proposed model following an earthquake simulation. The traffic loadings in the finite-element model consider the distribution of the vehicles on the bridge causing the largest forces in the bridge columns.

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