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Articles de revues sur le sujet « Intermediate goods – Econometric models »

Auteur : Grafiati

Publié le 10 mars 2023

Mis à jour le 31 juillet 2025

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1

Cherniavsky, A. V., and A. A. Chepel. "The input—output analysis of the impact of trade sanctions on the Russian economy." Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 3 (March 2, 2025): 29–47. https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2025-3-29-47.

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The Russian economy operates under the constraints of sanctions and countersanctions introduced since February 2022. Their impact has been significantly weaker than initially anticipated. This article examines the influence of trade sanctions on Russia’s economy using input—output tables, which allow for the inclusion of intersectoral linkages in the analysis, combined with econometric tools. Export and import sanctions are considered separately. The effect of export sanctions is analyzed basing on the potential reduction in government demand, which leads to a decline in both oil-and-gas and n

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Eyquem, Aurélien, and Güneş Kamber. "A NOTE ON THE BUSINESS CYCLE IMPLICATIONS OF TRADE IN INTERMEDIATE GOODS." Macroeconomic Dynamics 18, no. 5 (2013): 1172–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100512000892.

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Trade in intermediate goods is an important feature of trade in developed small open economies. We show that a model that assumes trade in intermediate goods brings the dynamics of an otherwise standard small open economy closer to what is observed in the data. With trade in intermediate goods, movements of international relative prices affect the economy through an additional channel, denoted the “cost channel.” A model embedding this channel comes closer to business cycle data in several dimensions compared to models with trade in final goods only. It increases the share of output variance e

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CHENG, WENLI, and DINGSHENG ZHANG. "DOES TRADE IN INTERMEDIATE GOODS INCREASE OR DECREASE WAGE INEQUALITY?" Singapore Economic Review 52, no. 02 (2007): 201–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0217590807002658.

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This paper develops two models to study the impact of trade in intermediate goods on wage inequality between skilled and unskilled labor in a developed country and a developing country. The first model assumes symmetric production technologies in the intermediate good. It predicts that trade in the intermediate good will increase wage inequality in the developed country, but decrease wage inequality in the developing country. The second model assumes asymmetric technologies in the intermediate good. It predicts that trade in the intermediate good can lead to an increase in wage inequality in b

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Sergeev, L. I., and D. L. Sergeev. "MACROECONOMICS OF THE VALUE OF THE PRODUCT OF THE COUNTRY’S FISHING INDUSTRY." Problems of Fisheries 25, no. 2 (2024): 129–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.36038/0234-2774-2024-25-2-129-138.

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The indicators of production and use of the cost of resources of goods and services in the prices of buyers of the Fishing and fish farming industry for 2012–2020 are analyzed. The dynamics of intermediate consumption, wages, profits, value added and the cost of output of the industry are considered. Econometric models of the dynamics of the value of the product of fishing and fish farming, the dynamics of the profit margin and the organic structure of the cost of production of RHC, the ratios of individual indicators of the value of the RHC product, the ratio of labor productivity indicators

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Şaşmaz, Abdullah Bahadır. "Assessment of the Determinants of Revealed Comparative Advantages in Türkiye's Manufacturing Sector in the Context of Selected European Countries." Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, no. 56 (April 30, 2025): 50–77. https://doi.org/10.52642/susbed.1471194.

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This study examines Türkiye's trade competitiveness in manufacturing sector (SITC5-8) with 21 European economies from 1996 to 2021. The Balassa index results reveal that Türkiye's strongest competitiveness is in miscellaneous manufactured articles (SITC8) and manufactured goods (SITC6). Econometric models are employed to explore the factors influencing competitiveness across sectors. According to analysis, increase in GDP of trading partners generally weakens Türkiye's position in SITC5, 7 & 8 sectors. It is seen that economies of scale arising from free trade between trading countries do

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Moon, Soojae. "The “Backus-Smith” puzzle, non-tradable output, and international business cycles." Studies in Economics and Finance 33, no. 4 (2016): 532–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/sef-01-2015-0033.

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Purpose This paper aims to examine the effects of adding non-tradable sector and trade in intermediate goods sector and their impact on the “Backus-Smith” (BS) puzzle and the features of the non-tradable output. Conventional international real business cycle models show that the real exchange rate and the terms of trade are positively correlated to the relative consumption movement between the home and foreign economies when there is a total factor productivity shock, whereas the correlation in the data is negative. The author develops a two-country, dynamic, stochastic and general equilibrium

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Aguirre, Iñaki. "On the Economics of the “Meeting Competition Defense” Under the Robinson–Patman Act." B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy 16, no. 3 (2016): 1213–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/bejeap-2015-0146.

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Abstract This paper studies the welfare effects of third-degree price discrimination when competitive pressure varies across markets. In particular, we study the economic aspects of the Robinson–Patman Act associated with the “meeting competition defense.” Using equilibrium models, the main result we find is that this defense might be used successfully in cases of primary line injury precisely when it should not be used, namely when price discrimination reduces social welfare. This result obtains both when discrimination appears in the final good market and when it is used in the intermediate

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Choi, Myoung Shik, and Hun Dae Lee. "The Value-Added Effects of Exchange Rates on Global Trade." Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies 10, no. 1 (2021): 184. http://dx.doi.org/10.36941/ajis-2021-0016.

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This study is an investigation of view about the gross, bilateral, and value-added trades adjusting to exchange rate and income within global value chains. Various difference between aggregate and value-added trade flows is introduced. We adopt the traditional trade models and test them using time-series analysis on value-added exports and imports. We find that currency depreciation has negative effects on gross exports in the US and Korea due to intermediate goods imports, but positive effects on value-added exports in Japan and Korea. On the other hand, currency appreciation has negative eff

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Fernández Núñez, Maria Teresa, María Maesso Corral, and Miguel Angel Márquez Paniagua. "THE ROLE OF IMPORTED INPUTS AND FDI ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM EMERGING AND ADVANCED ECONOMIES." Revista de Economía Mundial, no. 45 (January 13, 2017): 65–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.33776/rem.v0i45.3805.

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The role of imported inputs (capital and intermediate goods) and foreign direct investment [FDI] on economic growth as a mechanism of international technology transfer has been highlighted by different growth models. However, empirical evidence regarding the concurrent impact of both imported inputs and FDI on economic growth is still scarce. The main aim of the paper is to give empirical evidence about the effects of these variables as channels of international technology diffusion. In the same framework, this study captures the different responses in economic growth when considering two diff

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Safiullin, M. R., and L. A. Elshin. "Sanctions Pressure on the Russian Economy: Ways to Overcome the Costs and Benefits of Confrontation within the Framework of Import Substitution." Finance: Theory and Practice 27, no. 1 (2023): 150–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.26794/2587-5671-2023-27-1-150-161.

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The sustainable development of the national economy, taking into account the creation of mechanisms for ensuring economic security, technological sovereignty and preventing threats to the localization of import supplies of final and intermediate consumption goods, is one of the priority directions of economic policy in the conditions of systemic restrictions formed under the pressure of sanctions. In this regard, the study of the key externalities generated within the framework of the sanctions confrontation is an extremely popular task, both for science and practice. In this paper, the author

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Coyle, Diane, and David Nguyen. "Cloud Computing, Cross-Border Data Flows and New Challenges for Measurement in Economics." National Institute Economic Review 249 (August 2019): R30—R38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/002795011924900112.

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When economists talk about ‘measurement’ they tend to refer to metrics that can capture changes in quantity, quality and distribution of goods and services. In this paper we argue that the digital transformation of the economy, particularly the rise of cloud computing as a general-purpose technology, can pose serious challenges to traditional concepts and practices of economic measurement. In the first part we show how quality-adjusted prices of cloud services have been falling rapidly over the past decade, which is currently not captured by the deflators used in official statistics. We then d

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Perry, Bryan, Kerk Phillips, and David E. Spencer. "Real wages and monetary policy: a DSGE approach." Journal of Economic Studies 42, no. 5 (2015): 734–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jes-01-2014-0008.

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Purpose – Studies of the cyclical behavior of real wages have identified monetary shocks and examined the response of real wages and output or employment. A finding that real wages are procyclical in response to a positive monetary policy shock is taken as evidence that prices are stickier than wages. The purpose of this paper is to show that factors other than wage and price stickiness affect the response of real wages to a monetary policy shock. Design/methodology/approach – The authors simulate two prominent dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models under a variety of parameter values a

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Ivashchenko, S. M. "Long -term growth sources for sectors of Russian economy." Journal of the New Economic Association 48, no. 4 (2020): 86–112. http://dx.doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2020-48-4-4.

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Theoretical models suggest stationary structure of sectors. Sometimes this suggestion is hidden (balanced growth). The ratio of variables for 2 sectors is unit root at the most cases (for 14 Russian sectors and 6 variables per sector). The lowest share of stationary ratios is 5/91 for real value added with ADF test (KPSS test for the same variable leads to 38/91 stationary ratios). The cointegration rank differs across sectors in wide ranges (from 1 for trade (G) or government administration (L) till 5 for agriculture (AB)). The dynamic stochastic partial equilibrium (DSPE) model is created. I

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Білуха, Михайло, and Анна Петриченко. "USING ECONOMETRIC MODELS FOR MANAGING DISTRIBUTION PROCESSES." Economic journal of Lesya Ukrainka Volyn National University 2, no. 38 (2024): 134–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.29038/2786-4618-2024-02-134-144.

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Introduction. The constant increase in competition and rapid changes in market conditions compel various business entities to seek more efficient ways to manage the distribution of goods. In this context, econometric models become an indispensable tool for analysis and forecasting, enabling informed decision-making, optimization of logistics processes, and cost minimization. Objective. The aim of this article is to substantiate effective econometric models for managing the distribution of goods to optimize supply processes, sales, and maximize profits for manufacturers, retailers, and other pa

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Somwaru, Agapi, Francis Tuan, and Sun Ling Wang. "Assessing China’s Long Term Export and Income Growth in the Global Markets." International Journal of Economics and Finance 10, no. 9 (2018): 98. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v10n9p98.

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This paper delves into China’s differential growth in exports with high income and developing countries by focusing on bilateral content of China’s trade and particular exports over the time period 1979-2015. In the last 30 plus years, China has specialized in upstream capital goods and exhibited rapid diversification in consumer goods. Performing causality tests reveals a strong evidence of causality from the export growth of capital goods and consumer non-durable goods to gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. There is also evidence that the causality is bi-directional for consumer durable

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Safiullin, M. R., R. T. Burganov, L. A. Elshin, and A. M. Mingulov. "Assessment of Economic Growth Prospects in Russian Regions Considering Import Sanctions." Economy of Regions 19, no. 4 (2023): 1003–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2023-4-5.

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Sanctions restrictions and external pressure on the Russian economy resulted in significant transformations of cooperative foreign relations. Such developments require adaptive mechanisms to ensure sustainable economic growth at the macro- and meso-levels. In this regard, various studies aim to develop methodologies for building macroeconomic models adapted to institutional and market changes. The present article tries to solve this problem by proposing and testing approaches to the assessment of regional economic growth prospects by simulation modelling of localisation of transnational chains

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Chahrazed, Bourdache, Chabani Amina Yousra, Marouf Djillali, and Hammami Raid Imade Eddine. "An Econometric Study of the Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on Imports." SocioEconomic Challenges 8, no. 3 (2024): 262–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.61093/sec.8(3).262-269.2024.

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Changes in the exchange rate affect many macroeconomic variables, where the depreciation of the exchange rate leads to the effects of economic activity through the rise in the prices of foreign goods, “imports” for domestic goods, which leads to the reluctance of the decimating Local yen for foreign goods, leading to increased international competitiveness of domestic goods, high export volume and reduced imports, all resulting in improved trade deficits. Among other things, the decline in local currency exchange rates can be accompanied by deflationary effects on the gross domestic product (G

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Shakkaliyev, Arman A. "Econometric Modeling of the Markets Boundaries." Journal of Modern Competition 16, no. 4 (2022): 133–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.37791/2687-0657-2022-16-4-133-143.

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The relevance of the study is due to the special importance of correctly determining the product boundaries of the cross-border markets of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) in the process of antimonopoly regulation. An erroneous definition of such parameters leads to an incorrect definition of the product, and, as a result, to a narrowing or expansion of the scope and geography of its circulation, an increase or blurring of the shares of entities operating in the markets, a false level of concentration, as well as a distortion of the criteria for delineating the competence of the EEC and nati

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Islam, Tamanna, Ashfaque A. Mohib, and Shahnaz Zarin Haque. "Econometric Models for Forecasting Remittances of Bangladesh." Business and Management Studies 4, no. 1 (2017): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.11114/bms.v4i1.2860.

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At present, the remittance of Bangladesh (RB) is the largest source of foreign exchange earning of the country. The RB plays a critical role in alleviating the foreign-exchange constraint and supporting the balance of payments, enabling imports of capital goods and raw materials for industrial development. Remittance from overseas migrant workers certainly increases the income disparity between classes of the rural society. Therefore forecasting plays an important role to know the future situation of economic condition. This paper employed the prospective data on RB to derive a unique and suit

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Afanasiev, Kirill, and Ekaterina Stepanova. "Initiative Improvement in Saint-Petersburg: from Local Community Art towards Tactical Urbanism." Inter 14, no. 3 (2022): 124–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.19181/inter.2022.14.3.6.

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The article summarizes the preliminary results of the analysis of public initiatives in the field of landscaping in St. Petersburg. In order to systematize the variety of research approaches and assessments of interested persons authors used the methods of source analysis and generalization (grouping) of assessments and analogies in relation to the objects and phenomena under consideration.The practical part of the study consisted in the formation of an array of data and a bank of cases in the field of grassroots initiatives to improve the urban environment and the formation of public spaces.

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Maune, Alexander. "Trade in Services-Economic Growth Nexus: An Analysis of the Growth Impact of Trade in Services in SADC Countries." Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies 11, no. 2(J) (2019): 58–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.22610/jebs.v11i2(j).2819.

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The article analysed the trade in services led growth in ten selected countries in the Southern African Development Community region using econometric regression models. Panel data obtained from the World Bank and United Nations Conference on Trade and Development databases for the period 1992 to 2015 was analysed. Five variables were used in the econometric analysis. The marginal effects of service and goods exports were positive while those of goods and service imports were negative and highly significant as was expected from literature. Service exports registered an impact that was almost t

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DROBYSHEVSKAYA, Larisa N., and Nikita A. DANKOV. "Short-term forecasting of inflation, output of goods and services using machine learning." Finance and Credit 31, no. 1 (2025): 91–112. https://doi.org/10.24891/fc.31.1.91.

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Subject. The article addresses short-term forecasts of key economic indicators obtained using machine learning models that can be used as prerequisites in medium-term models used for stress testing, scenario analysis, and development of recommendations on monetary policy. Objectives. The study aims at improving the accuracy of short-term forecasting of inflation, output of goods and services, based on the use of various models, including machine learning, and determining the most optimal one. Methods. The study rests on systems approach, methods of statistical analysis, mathematical modeling,

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Tsvil, Mariya, and O. Abramova. "ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF INDIVIDUAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE ACTIVITY OF CUSTOMS AUTHORITIES." Science & World 2022, no. 4 (2022): 26–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.26526/2307-9401-2022-4-26-30.

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The article represents the theoretical, regulatory consolidated information on the effectiveness indicesof the performance of the customs authorities, as well as an econometric modeling of the separate parameters of such economic indicators as customs payments, namely weight and cost. The developed models according to the given parameters are based on the monthly data of the Customs statistics for commodity group 23 «Residues and wastes of the food industry; prepared animal feed» for 2018-2021. By means of the constructed econometric models, the values of the customs value and weight for this

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Dorosz, Aleksandra, and Hanna Dudek. "SPOŻYCIE OWOCÓW W POLSCE – ANALIZA NA PODSTAWIE JEDNORÓWNANIOWYCH NIELINIOWYCH MODELI EKONOMETRYCZNYCH." Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych 21, no. 1 (2021): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.22630/mibe.2020.21.1.1.

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The article dealt with an assessment of the fit of typical non-linear demand models for fruit. The power function, the exponential function with the inverse and the Törnquist function for the basic goods were used in the econometric analysis. The models were estimated on the basis of income quintile groups’ data published by the Central Statistical Office. Based on the estimated model parameters, income elasticities of demand were calculated. It was found that the models described by the power function and the Törnquist function for basic goods were characterized by a better goodness of fit th

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Xiang, Yu, Jing Zheng, and Xunhua Tu. "The Impact of Intermediate Goods Imports on Energy Efficiency: Empirical Evidence from Chinese Cities." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 20 (2022): 13007. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192013007.

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Improving energy efficiency is a critical way to solve energy shortage and environmental problems and achieve the goal of “double carbon”. As China expands imports and integrates into global value chains, can import trade improve energy efficiency? This topic is extremely important for solving current energy problems and promoting sustainable economic development. Based on panel data of prefecture-level cities in China, this paper uses the Super-SBM model to measure the total factor energy efficiency of cities and investigates the impact of intermediate goods imports on energy efficiency with

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Kalinauskas, Žilvinas. "Econometric modelling of the Lithuanian economic indicators." Lietuvos matematikos rinkinys, no. III (December 17, 1999): 376–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.15388/lmd.1999.35664.

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The paper is devoted to model relations between Lithuanian indicators of production, foreign trade, income and prices and to present short-term forecasts. The join behaviour of Lithuanian GDP, exports and imports of goods and services, money, salaries and prices is examined by the structural vector auto-regression models (SVAR). Striving for the larger accuracy, apart the aggregated indicators their components are analysed as well.Economic literature and experience of practical work show that there is relation between GDP, foreign trade, money and income indicators and unemployment. It was ref

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Arrieta Padilla, Gabriel Lewis. "Trade Creation and Diversion Effects under the Free Trade Agreement between Peru and the United States: A Gravitational Analysis." Economia 44, no. 88 (2021): 1–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.18800/economia.202102.001.

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This paper is oriented to quantify the trade creation and diversion effects in the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Peru and the United States. For that purpose, using a disaggregated database at the 10-digit level for Peruvian goods with intervals of 3-years between 2002 and 2018, this article adopts a three-dummy variable methodology that allows the identification of intra-bloc and extra-bloc effects. In addition, a theoretically-founded gravity equation is employed with the incorporation of country-time and time-invariant fixed effects in order to solve common econometric specification pr

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Marabucci, Alessio. "Price elasticity of fuel demand: an econometric approach." European Transport/Trasporti Europei, no. 93 (June 2023): 1–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.48295/et.2023.93.8.

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The purpose of this paper is to quantify, through the use of Bayesian VAR (BVAR) econometric models, the elasticity of demand for automotive fuels (gasoline, diesel and liquid propane gas - LPG) in response to a shock in both their respective prices at the pump and other and other variables that affect the production of these commodities (such oil price, exchange rate etc.). The data used consist of time series on consumption and prices of the goods described above as of January 2002 for Italy. First, the existing literature, which focuses mainly on Anglo-Saxon countries, was analysed in order

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Кузнецов, Д. Е. "Влияние сокращения промежуточного импорта из Китая на российскую промышленность". Journal of the New Economic Association, № 4(65) (24 грудня 2024): 136–55. https://doi.org/10.31737/22212264_2024_4_136-155.

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В статье изучается влияние шока предложения импорта промежуточных товаров на динамику обрабатывающей промышленности. Хронология распространения COVID-19 позволяет рассматривать I квартал 2020 г. как период, в течение которого распространение вируса напрямую влияло на экономическую активность в Китае, но не в большинстве других стран. Поэтому сокращение импорта из Китая в этот период можно рассматривать как натуральный эксперимент, дающий экзогенную вариацию предложения импорта промежуточных товаров. Подверженность отраслей российской промышленности сокращению импорта из Китая рассчитывается на

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Basovskiy, Leonid, and Elena Basovskaya. "The Elasticity of Labor Productivity by Factors of Production in Modern Russia." Scientific Research and Development. Economics 8, no. 4 (2020): 22–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/2587-9111-2020-22-25.

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The correlation between labor productivity and indicators reflecting the influence of socio-economic and innovative factors in the regions of Russia for 2015-2018 were evaluated. For each year, according to statistics from 82 regions of Russia, econometric models are constructed that allow obtaining elasticity coefficients of labor productivity by capital-labor ratio, foreign investment, average monthly wage, income inequality, producer price index of industrial goods, export share in gross regional product. The prospects of economic policy aimed at increasing labor productivity were estimated

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Arruda, Elano Ferreira, Antônio Clécio de Brito, and Pablo Urano de Carvalho Castelar. "Exchange Rate and Trade Balances in Brazil: A Disaggregated Analysis by Major Economic Categories." International Journal of Economics and Finance 14, no. 6 (2022): 62. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v14n6p62.

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This work investigates the repercussions of real devaluations in the exchange rate on the trade balance for Brazil, when considering major economic categories, i.e., capital goods, durable consumer goods, semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods, intermediate goods, and fuels and lubricants. To this end, monthly data are used for the period January 2000 and July 2019, and vector error correction (VEC) models. The results suggest that, in the long run, real devaluations in the exchange rate have positive and elastic impacts on the trade balance in all sectors, except for fuels and lubricants

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Majewski, Sebastian, Waldemar Tarczynski, and Malgorzata Tarczynska-Luniewska. "Measuring investors’ emotions using econometric models of trading volume of stock exchange indexes." Investment Management and Financial Innovations 17, no. 3 (2020): 281–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.17(3).2020.21.

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Traditional finance explains all human activity on the ground of rationality and suggests all decisions are rational because all current information is reflected in the prices of goods. Unfortunately, the development of information technology and a growth of demand for new, attractive possibilities of investment caused the process of searching new, unique signals supporting investment decisions. Such a situation is similar to risk-taking, so it must elicit the emotional reactions of individual traders.The paper aims to verify the question that the market risk may be the determinant of traders’

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Yang, Xiaojun, Ping Qin, and Jintao Xu. "Positional concern, gender, and household expenditures: a case study in Yunnan province." China Agricultural Economic Review 8, no. 4 (2016): 572–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/caer-07-2015-0076.

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to attempt to investigate farmer’s positional concerns in rural China, and how the positional concerns correlate with household expenditures on visible goods. Design/methodology/approach The authors conduct a survey-based experiment to measure farmers’ positional concerns, and employ econometric models to examine the determinants of the degree of positional concern and how the positional concern affects household expenditures on visible goods. Findings The authors find that Chinese farmers have strong positional concerns for income, and high-income househol

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Haskel, Jonathan, Robert Z. Lawrence, Edward E. Leamer, and Matthew J. Slaughter. "Globalization and U.S. Wages: Modifying Classic Theory to Explain Recent Facts." Journal of Economic Perspectives 26, no. 2 (2012): 119–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.26.2.119.

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This paper seeks to review how globalization might explain the recent trends in real and relative wages in the United States. We begin with an overview of what is new during the last 10–15 years in globalization, productivity, and patterns of U.S. earnings. To preview our results, we then work through four main findings: First, there is only mixed evidence that trade in goods, intermediates, and services has been raising inequality between more- and less-skilled workers. Second, it is more possible, although far from proven, that globalization has been boosting the real and relative earnings o

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Plaskon, Svitlana, Halina Seniv, Ivan Novosad, and Vadym Masliy. "APPLICATION OF ECONOMETRIC MODELING IN THE EVALUATION OF FOREIGN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY OF UKRAINE." Economic Analysis, no. 30(3) (2020): 25–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.35774/econa2020.03.025.

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Introduction. Foreign trade operations significantly affect the development of each country's economy, in particular the value of gross domestic product, which is one of the main indicators of economic development and welfare of population. Therefore, it is necessary to study and model the impact of exports, imports and net exports on macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine. Purpose. The purpose of the article is to analyze publications that consider export-import operations of Ukraine, study of statistical information in this area, construction and analysis of econometric models of the dynamics o

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Czech, Artur, and Jerzy Lewczuk. "Taxonomic and Econometric Analysis of Road Transport Development in Poland – The Voivodship Approach." Ekonomia i Zarzadzanie 8, no. 3 (2016): 79–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/emj-2016-0026.

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Abstract Transport is considered one of the basic aspects of the movement of people, raw materials as well as goods from the place of origin to the destination. Moreover, in the wider sense, transport includes economic bodies that aim to achieve goals similar to those of businesses that produce a wide range of goods required by customers. Hence, the efficient operations of basic branches of the transportation system determine the entire national economy. Furthermore, transport is considered a basic factor of development, both on the macro- and microeconomic scales. The aim of the paper is to a

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ANASTASIADIS, Vasileios, and Evangelos SISKOS. "TIME SERIES ANALYSIS FOR FORECASTING CRUDE OIL PRICES." JOURNAL OF EUROPEAN ECONOMY, Vol 22, No 3 (2023) (September 1, 2023): 430–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.35774/jee2023.03.430.

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Many analysts, policymakers, and researchers have grown increasingly concerned about the fluctuation of international crude oil prices. That is because oil prices reflect many macroeconomic and financial indicators (GDP, unemployment, inflation, S&P 500 Index, Nasdaq Composite Index), and conditions in a variety of financial and goods markets. This paper highlights the most appropriate model for estimating and forecasting West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil monthly prices by comparing three hybrid models – ARMA-GARCH, ARMAEGARCH, and ARMA-FIGARCH. Finally, among these models, the paper

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Dobronravova, E. P. "Industry effects of monetary policy in Russia: Econometric analysis." Journal of the New Economic Association 55, no. 3 (2022): 45–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2022-55-3-3.

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This paper presents the econometric analysis of the heterogenous effects of monetary policy on industrial output and producer prices in manufacturing sector in Russia. The estimation of the differences in the impulce responses to the interest rate shock is conducted using structural VAR-models, the analysis of key industrial characteristics, explaining differences through monetary transmission channes, is based on principal components and correlations. Our findings reveal the strongest response to monetary policy in such industries as manufacture of rubber and plastic products, manufacture of

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Benada, Luděk. "Comparison of the Impact of Econometric Models on Hedging Performance by Crude Oil and Natural Gas." Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis 66, no. 2 (2018): 423–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.11118/actaun201866020423.

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The paper examines the performance of hedging spot prices in crude oil and natural gas. The subject of the research are spot prices of West Texas Intermediate and Henry Hub. The risk protection is provided by the application of futures contracts of underlying assets. In our analysis three econometric models (OLS, Copula, GARCH) and a naive portfolio are applied to obtain the optimal hedge ratio. Afterwards, the calculated weights for futures are verified for the ability to reduce the spot price risk over twelve months. The success of each model in risk reduction is measured over the test perio

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Avila-Foucat, Veronique Sophie, Karla J. Rodriguez-Robayo, Kelly W. Jones, et al. "Household’s Allocation of Payment for Ecosystem Services in “La Antigua” Watershed, Veracruz, México." Journal of Environment & Development 30, no. 2 (2021): 191–213. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/10704965211003148.

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Payment for ecosystem services (PES) is an environmental policy looking to improve ecosystem conservation and well-being. Assets have been used to evaluate socioeconomic outcomes of the program; however, the allocation of PES at a household level and its explaining variables have not been addressed. Thus, the aim of this article is to study the allocation of PES in nondurable and durable goods and the determinants of this household decision. Results from the La Antigua watershed located in Mexico indicate that the PES program is primarily used in durable goods, mainly on health, house infrastr

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Abdić, Ademir, Emina Resić, Adem Abdić, and Adnan Rovčanin. "Nowcasting GDP of Bosnia and Herzegovina: A Comparison of Forecast Accuracy Models." South East European Journal of Economics and Business 15, no. 2 (2020): 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/jeb-2020-0011.

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Abstract The paper explores the possibilities of creating an econometric model for making short-term forecasts of the Gross Domestic Product of Bosnia and Herzegovina (GDP of B&H). Its aim is to determine the most representative and most efficient model for forecasting the quarterly GDP of B&H. This is the first paper that simultaneously compares ARIMA models, bridge models and factor models in three different time periods. All variables are available for the period of 2006q1-2016q4. The final choice of the model for forecasting the quarterly GDP of B&H was selected on the basis of

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Bereskin, C. Gregory. "Estimating Maintenance-of-Way Costs for U.S. Railroads After Deregulation." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 1707, no. 1 (2000): 13–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/1707-02.

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The movement of freight on railroads, like most transportation services, is subject to a number of restrictions that make costing of specific traffic a complex process. Among these restrictions are conditions of joint production; economies of scale, scope, and density; and a lack of data on specific expenditures as related to individual freight movements. Yet costing of specific movements is a desirable activity for shippers, railroads, and regulatory bodies. Traditionally, movement costing has involved the use of accounting-based allocative costing models such as the Uniform Rail Costing Syst

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Basovskiy, Leonid, and Elena Basovskaya. "Production Functions of Labor Productivity in Modern Russia." Scientific Research and Development. Economics 8, no. 3 (2020): 18–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/2587-9111-2020-18-22.

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To identify determinants of labor productivity, correlation relationships of productivity of various indicators was evaluated, reflecting the influence of a wide range of socio-economic and innovative factors in the regions of Russia for 2015-2017. It has been established that many indicators characterizing socio-economic and innovative factors do not have a significant relationship with labor productivity and are multicollenarity (they have correlation relationships among themselves). For each year, according to statistics of 82 regions of Russia, econometric models in the form of a well-know

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Campos, Octávio Valente, Wagner Moura Lamounier, and Rafael Morais de Souza. "The composition of firms' indebtedness and the macroeconomy of capital." Revista Catarinense da Ciência Contábil 21 (September 9, 2022): e3296. http://dx.doi.org/10.16930/2237-7662202232962.

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The objective of this research is to analyze the influence that monetary policies exert on the composition of the indebtedness of Brazilian corporations. From this objective, 2 hypotheses derive. The first analyzes the sample aggregate and the second directs the tests to the productive sectors. The study sample is composed of 220 companies: 84 of consumer goods, 89 of capital goods and 47 of public utility. The data collected refer to the years 2009 to 2019. The methodology used for data analysis is through panel data models, using the GMM approach. According to the results, it can be conclude

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Le Roux, P., and B. Ismail. "Modelling the impact of changes in the interest rates on the economy: An Austrian perspective." South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences 7, no. 1 (2004): 132–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.4102/sajems.v7i1.1433.

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Even though econometric models and yield curve analysis are useful in assessing the impact of interest rate changes on the economic structure, their power to predict the magnitude and direction of swings in the business cycle is often restricted to the use of short-term interest rates. From an Austrian school perspective on interest rates, empirical evidence suggests that the profitability of heavy industries further downstream outperforms that of light industries in the initial stages of monetary easing, due to a rising demand for investment goods and a rise in capacity utilisation levels. Th

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Sabir, Muhammad, Muhammad Akram, and Rehman Uddin Mian. "Transport, Logistics, and Economic Growth Nexus: A Cross-Country Analysis." Transport and Telecommunication Journal 25, no. 4 (2024): 462–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/ttj-2024-0033.

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Abstract Transportation and logistics play a crucial role in the overall supply chain of a country by ensuring the timely delivery of goods for production and consumption. The current study investigates the relationship between economic growth and logistics performance across countries. The study’s significant contribution is using logistics performance data from a panel of 107 countries covering the period from 2007 to 2019 and applying panel data-based time-series econometric models to investigate the link between economic growth and logistics performance. The study confirms a long-term rela

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Bernard, Jean-Thomas, Lynda Khalaf, Maral Kichian, and Clement Yelou. "OIL PRICE FORECASTS FOR THE LONG TERM: EXPERT OUTLOOKS, MODELS, OR BOTH?" Macroeconomic Dynamics 22, no. 3 (2017): 581–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100516001279.

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Little is known about the accuracy of expert outlooks, so heavily relied upon by industry participants and policy makers, regarding the future path of oil prices. Using the regular publications by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), we examine the accuracy of annual recursive oil price forecasts generated by the National Energy Modeling System model of the Agency for forecast horizons of up to 15 years. Our results reveal that the EIA model outperforms the benchmark random walk model around the two ends of the forecast horizon spectrum. Additionally, at the longer horizons, simple eco

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Mosalev, A. I. "Optimal Spatial Models of Interregional Economic Cooperation in the Field of Innovative Economy." Economy of Region 18, no. 3 (2022): 638–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2022-3-2.

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Domestic cooperation of companies in the field of innovative economy seems to be a promising research area in Russia, especially considering recent macroeconomic events caused by sanctions, in particular, restrictions on the import of high-tech goods. Thus, the present study examines the optimal spatial scale of interregional innovation cooperation. The article presents an analysis of approaches to determining the optimal number of k-matrices of relations between innovation active regions. It is hypothesised that the innovative activity of the business sector in one region does not influence t

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Zhemkova, Aleksandra M., Larisa M. Nikitina, and Tatiana N. Gogoleva. "Analysing the efficiency of public procurement procedures using game-theory models." Proceedings of Voronezh State University. Series: Economics and Management, no. 4 (December 29, 2023): 20–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.17308/econ.2023.4/11688.

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Subject. Public procurement plays an important role in providing public services and ensuring that the target programmes of government structures are implemented. Therefore, it is crucial to improve the efficiency of procurement procedures. The efficiency of public procurement is largely determined by the conditions and format of the procurement procedure. So, it is of particular interest to identify the factors influencing the customer’s choice of the optimal procedure for the procurement of different types of goods, as well as to assess the impact of these factors on the effectiveness of exi

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Romanyuk, Kirill. "Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the US Credit Default Swap Market." Complexity 2021 (November 30, 2021): 1–5. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/1656448.

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The COVID-19 pandemic affected the US economy at different levels. Since credit default swaps can be viewed as a default probability indicator, the article shows the credit default swap market perspective on how the US economy was hit by the pandemic. Forecasting models are built to estimate the predictability of the CDS market sectors during the pandemic, i.e., manufacturing, energy, banks, consumer goods, and services and financial sector excluding banks. Econometric tests are applied to check the uniqueness of credit default swap market sectors after the declaration of the pandemic. The res

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