Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « INVESTMENT IN BANKING »

Purpose This paper aims to evaluate how strands of differing investments influence stability in the banking industry using data from 37 countries in Sub-Sahara Africa from 2000 to 2018. Design/methodology/approach Empirical analyses in the study were carried out using a two-step system Generalized Method of Moments estimation methodology. Findings Empirical results suggest that generally, growth in investments by governments, foreign investments and private domestic investments have a significant positive impact in stabilizing the banking industry. The empirical estimates further suggest that macroeconomic conditions such as macroeconomic uncertainty adversely affects the liquid reserve position of banks even during periods of appreciable growth in investments. Originality/value The authors present a different approach to the banking industry discourse. Instead of surmise the relationship with the direction of impact often emanating from the banking industry to other variables of interest or conditions, this study rather examines how investment dynamics among economies influence the stability of the banking industry overtime. In contrast to related studies, this study examines how strands of investment variables influence the stability of the banking industry. Specifically, this study is modeled to examine the extent to which variability in investment growth (using different investment variables) affect stability in the banking industry.

Financial market participants are constantly trying to implement the adaptation of modern foreign products of banking institutions and innovative service tools as the formation of certain competitive advantages in this market.The Russian financial market is quite dynamic. It is no coincidence that many financial analysts note the fact that Russia is characterized by profound changes in the economic sphere, and especially in the banking services market.As banking institutions, it is customary to consider such organizations that collect funds from citizens of the country with special tools established by law, as well as transfer this capital to the process of use by various legal entities on the basis of the principle of repayment.Over the past few years, the banking institutions themselves have gradually changed their own status with the transformation from an additional financial instrument of the largest corporations into individual players in the market. A fairly rapidly developing area of such banking activity is investment banking (in other words, investment banking).For the first time, investment banking began to appear in the United States in the 30s of the last century, when, on a legislative basis, such banks were united into a separate conglomerate in order to manage the risks that arose as part of speculative operations in financial markets through deposits and customer deposits. This separation was further abolished, and commercial banks were again given the right to provide investment services.The subject of research in the article is the economic relations that arise in the process of intermediary activities of investment banks. The research results consist in identifying the actual features of the development of investment banking within the framework of the main types of investment activities of banks. The author substantiated the advantages of investment banks functioning as financial institutions, the main task of which is to attract investments for companies on a commercial basis or for state and municipal authorities.

With the help of the development of the banking system around the world, such a term as investment banking was formed. Thus, the current set of banking products and services for the most part does not allow satisfying the existing demand of customers, so banking institutions began to develop at a faster pace. It is the needs of customers that stimulate not only foreign, but also Russian banks to expand the range of services provided, as well as to improve their activities (including in terms of investments).To date for the implementation of the active development of banking services, investment banking is considered as one of the main elements.Now investment banking continues to play one of the most important roles in the process of financing the economic sector. Investment banking is one of the most promising areas of mediation of investment-oriented banks, the main task of which can be attributed to the implementation of investment interests on the part of clients.At the international level, the sphere of investment banking has an important role and place in the economic field. Investment banking is characterized by certain development prospects in the Russian Federation. The practical use of the methods presented in this scientific article can ensure the further development of this area of investment banking in Russia.The subject of research in the article is the economic relations that arise in the process of intermediary activities of investment banks. Research results are to identify relevant aspects of the functioning of investment banks in the Russian Federation. The author substantiated the directions for the development of investment banks in Russia, taking into account the elimination of existing shortcomings.

Banking regulation is beneficial because it constrains banks' portfolios to prevent excessive risk taking. But given that regulators usually know less than a bank about its investment opportunities, regulation comes at the cost of foregoing profitable investments. I argue that shadow banking improves welfare because it provides a channel to escape excessive regulation that is asymmetrically more valuable for banks with access to efficient investment opportunities. I propose a novel intervention that improves welfare further by taxing shadow activities, subsidizing regulated activities and allowing banks to self-select into being regulated or not. (JEL D82, G21, G28, G31, G32, L25)

Sharia banking now has a strong legal framework with the presence of law number 21 of 2008 on sharia banking in Indonesia. This regulation enforces sharia banking to develop products to achieve the targeted market share of 5%. In third-party fund products, more innovation is needed to attract people to entrust their funds in sharia banks. The visible data of mudharabah fund raising deposit products in March 2013 amounted to Rp100.746.000.000 and Rp115.728.000.000 in mudharabah deposits was visible on April 2014, which is an increase of less than 2% each month. This research uses a qualitative descriptive methodology, and is focused on fund raising products in shari'ah banking, particularly in the form of mudharabah investments for a definitive result. The results show that sharia banking requires innovative fund raising for third-party products, such as mudharabah investment products. These investments provide certainty of results despite using mudharabah and are based on the certainty that projector financing has been agreed by the sharia with the creditor banks. This investment product can be offered to both individuals and groups/collectives.Keywords: sharia banking, investment, mudharabah

An increasing number of analyses have given proof that an effective financial system differs from an ineffective one in that it drives the long-term economic growth forward by allocating financial resources to more profitable investments. As a result, demands for financial sector reforms to increase its efficiency have intensified, in order to promote economic progress. Stable and efficient banking systems are an important component of every financial system. By reducing the efficiency of a country's banking or entire financial system, the ability to allocate resources for productive investment is reduced. The aim of the paper is to examine the importance and future possibilities of investment banking in the context of modern capital markets.

Thesis (S.M.M.O.T.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, Management of Technology Program, 2003.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 108-110).
This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.
In this study, we investigate and discuss IT investment and related issues in the Japanese banking industry. And we insist that banks should take account of technology trend as one of heavy IT users and switch long-term-strategy and IT-migration-strategy appropriately in order to make the best of IT. First of all, we show some back grounds of Japanese banking industry and IT revolution. Next, we show three case studies of a Japanese bank. We will find that, over the last ten years, Japanese banks have been struggling with deregulation, the IT revolution and the long resection of the Japanese economy. These external changes have made corporate strategies and traditional information systems are obsolete and inefficient. After then, we analyze IT investment allocation issues in the banking industry. As summary of our analysis, we show some key success factors and recommendation to a Japanese bank. Finally, Japanese banks should always consider Long-Term Strategy with a long-time viewpoint; during the period of IT migration, they should find a path in which they should follow based on IT Migration Strategy.
by Tatsuya Taniai.
S.M.M.O.T.

This research is related to British banking-halls as a class of real estate investment. Sale-and-leaseback has become an increasingly common approach during the last two decades for the holding of British banking-halls. One measure used in making property investment decisions is the all risks yield (ARY). Investors and their advisors have a need for a predictive framework which they can use for predicting those retail bank premises likely to achieve the highest ARY when assembling investment portfolios of such properties. A predictive framework necessitates the identification of those factors significantly influencing the yields of British banking-halls. This research aims to develop such a framework. Triangulation methodology was adopted to establish and test the predictive framework. A literature review established theory before a qualitative study, based upon semi-structured interviews and a questionnaire, was used to establish the influencing factors. A cross-sectional study of auction data then formed the basis of the quantitative regression study. The qualitative and quantitative studies validated that four factors were significant in influencing yield. These were tenant banking company, lot size, super-region and the macro-economic cycle index. A toolkit comprising a predictive framework for those banking-halls likely to produce the highest ARY was produced. This is capable of being used by professional practitioners and investors in predicting high yield for portfolio building purposes. The predictive framework was developed based upon the quantitative data from those three banks with the most premises sold by sale-and-leaseback. It formed a baseline from which further studies can build to test its significance for other banks. Consequently, a more robust predictive framework can be developed for banking-hall investments. Further research can also be conducted to develop predictive frameworks forecasting yields for investment in other commercial retail sectors, based upon the findings of this research.

This research is related to British banking-halls as a class of real estate investment. Sale-and-leaseback has become an increasingly common approach during the last two decades for the holding of British banking-halls. One measure used in making property investment decisions is the all risks yield (ARY). Investors and their advisors have a need for a predictive framework which they can use for predicting those retail bank premises likely to achieve the highest ARY when assembling investment portfolios of such properties. A predictive framework necessitates the identification of those factors significantly influencing the yields of British banking-halls. This research aims to develop such a framework. Triangulation methodology was adopted to establish and test the predictive framework. A literature review established theory before a qualitative study, based upon semi-structured interviews and a questionnaire, was used to establish the influencing factors. A cross-sectional study of auction data then formed the basis of the quantitative regression study. The qualitative and quantitative studies validated that four factors were significant in influencing yield. These were tenant banking company, lot size, super-region and the macro-economic cycle index. A toolkit comprising a predictive framework for those banking-halls likely to produce the highest ARY was produced. This is capable of being used by professional practitioners and investors in predicting high yield for portfolio building purposes. The predictive framework was developed based upon the quantitative data from those three banks with the most premises sold by sale-and-leaseback. It formed a baseline from which further studies can build to test its significance for other banks. Consequently, a more robust predictive framework can be developed for banking-hall investments. Further research can also be conducted to develop predictive frameworks forecasting yields for investment in other commercial retail sectors, based upon the findings of this research.

This thesis presents three empirical essays in the areas of equity issuance and investment banking. In the first essay, I document that an increasing number of initial public offering (IPO) firms have been allowed by their lead underwriters to conduct a seasoned equity offering (SEO) before IPO lockup expiry (pre-expiry SEO). I examine the determinants of pre-expiry SEOs and their impact on issuers' firm value. I find that issuers with stronger post-IPO stock performance and more reputable lead underwriters are more likely to issue pre-expiry SEOs. The three-day average abnormal return around the announcement day is -3.35% for pre-expiry SEOs compared to -1.70% for a control group of post-expiry SEOs. I predict that there would have been a three-day average abnormal return of -5.53% for the post-expiry control group had they conducted pre-expiry SEOs. I also find that pre-expiry SEO issuers tend to have better stock returns around IPO lockup expiry than other firms. Overall, my results suggest that it is 'better-quality' firms that are more likely to conduct pre-expiry SEOs. In the second study, I examine the impact of early IPO lockup release on issuers' decision to switch lead underwriters at their first SEO. With issuers using multiple lead underwriters, I distinguish between a complete switch (all leads are replaced) and a partial switch (at least one lead is retained). I find that none of the issuers that are allowed early release for a pre-expiry SEO completely switch underwriters at the SEO. The relative probability of a complete switch (vs. no switch) is much lower for issuers whose insiders are allowed to sell early in the open market. In the case of a partial switch, issuers tend to retain the more reputable lead underwriters. Overall, I provide strong evidence that granting issuers early IPO lockup release can help investment banks retain underwriting business. In the third essay, I document that the frequency of multiple-bookrunner SEOs increased dramatically from nearly zero in 1997 to more than 60% in 2013. With a sample of 2386 U.S. SEOs from 2001-2013, I examine the impact of multiple bookrunners on SEO offer price discounts and SEO gross spreads. After controlling for other influential factors and endogeneity or self-selection bias, I find that the offer price discount for a multiple-bookrunner SEO is 2.028% lower than that for a single-bookrunner SEO, while their gross spreads are not significantly different from each other. Overall, my results indicate that seasoned equity issuers should hire multiple bookrunners.

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 2004.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 86-89).
Since the collapse of the bubble economy in 1990, Japanese securities houses have suffered serious damage and have not been able to keep up with the progress of the global investment banking industry. During this period, foreign investment banks have grown rapidly, diversified the coverage of business, and expanded to the global market. Japanese investment banks were first developed in the late 1990s, after the "lost decade". They have competed with Japanese and foreign rivals mainly in the domestic market. This thesis explores both the external and internal strategic challenges confronting a Japanese investment bank seeking to survive and become a global player in the industry. First it confirms the findings of a recent stuffy of the Japanese investment banking industry and then explores two key lessons learned from historical experience in U.K. and U.S. financial markets. The current policy of Japanese government is also reviewed. With regard to the analysis of future challenges of Japanese investment banks, this thesis employs the game approach to understanding external challenges while the learning approach is applied to better understand internal challenges.
by Yasutaka Suehiro.
S.M.

This article reveals the financial and managerial essence of the organizational and economic mechanism for investing in the agro-industrial complex, the conditions ensuring its functioning and development. The prospects for the country's economic recovery are inextricably linked with the intensification of banking, industrial and commercial capital, which activates the organizational and economic mechanism of investment. Under the state administration in the agrarian sector, the areas of regulation of investment processes include flexible organizational processes, their potential development, combining centralized and decentralized management capable of effectively using developing technologies and modern mechanisms for using financial investments.

Рынок страховых услуг и банковский сектор выступают двумя главными системами, которые обеспечивают функции мобилизации, перераспределения и вложения финансовых ресурсов. Но в настоящее время их состояние и результаты деятельности не обеспечивают потребности экономики в инвестиционных ресурсах, а также не способствуют активизации инвестиционных процессов. В статье рассмотрим некоторые аспекты инвестиционной деятельности страховых организаций. The insurance market and the banking sector are the two main systems that provide the functions of mobilization, redistribution and investment of financial resources. But at present, their condition and results of activity do not meet the needs of the economy in investment resources, and also do not contribute to the activation of investment processes. In the article we will consider some aspects of the investment activities of insurance organizations.

Central banks can potentially influence the investment decisions of private financial institutions, which in turn will create incentives towards green technology adoption and development of lower emission business models. This paper examines how monetary policies can be deployed to promote a greening of finance. To guide the efforts, the paper mobilizes the Money View literature. This enables a comparative assessment of different monetary policy options. The main finding is that a promising way forward for green monetary policy is to adopt a strategy of expanding collateral eligibility through positive screening and widening haircut spreads to change relative incentives in favor of green over brown assets.

We investigate the impact of fiscal expansions on firm investment by exploiting firms that have multiple banking relationships. Further, we conduct a localized RDD approach and compare the lending behavior of banks that barely met and missed the criteria of being a primary dealer, as well as barely winners and losers at government auctions. Our results indicate that a 1 percentage point increase in banks’ bonds-to-assets ratio decreases loans by up to 0.4%, which leads to significant declines in firm investment, profits and wages. Our findings are grounded in a quantitative model with financial and real sectors with which we undertake a welfare analysis and compute the cost of government borrowing on the overall economy.

We investigate whether central banks are able to attract or redirect capital flows, by bringing together the entire empirical literature into the first quantitative meta-analysis on the subject. We dissect policy effects by the type of flow and by the origin of the monetary shock. Further, we assess whether policy effects depend on factors that drive investors to either search for yields or fly to safety. Our findings indicate a mean effect size of inflows in the amount of 0.09% of quarterly GDP in response to either a 100 basis point (bp) increase in the domestic policy rate or a 100bp reduction in the external rate. However, the effect size under a random effect specification is much lower (0.01%). Factors that significantly attract inflows include foreign exchange reserves, output growth, and financial openness, while factors that deter flows include foreign debt, capital controls, and departures from the uncovered interest rate parity. Also, both local and global risks matter (global risks exerting a larger pressure). Finally, we shed light on differences across the different types of flows: banking flows being the most responsive to monetary policy, while foreign direct investment being the least responsive.

The City of Hargeisa, despite being in the very early stages of enhancing its financial position, has achieved significant reform in just a few years since its democratic establishment in 2002. The successes achieved are even more remarkable, considering the fragile context of Somaliland after 30 years of civil war within Somalia, which left widespread destruction and devastation in the city. This is compounded by Somaliland’s lack of recognition as a sovereign state by the international community. The case provides an illustrative example of leveraging urbanisation to raise municipal revenues for public service delivery, and in building local government legitimacy to better deliver to the populace. Given the context, the reforms are those that are easy to implement and effective, including the application of a simple digitised accounting and billing system, and a fit-for-purpose area-based property tax system. Where other cities have struggled to service more people with a stagnant revenue base, Hargeisa’s reforms have meant that population growth has resulted in increased revenues from property taxes and daily vendor collections. At the same time, private contributions of land on the peri-urban fringes offer an opportunity for in-kind land value capture and planned development in the future. Their successes are reinforced by the legitimacy built through participatory governance, which demonstrates what is achievable when communities, local government and the private sector work together. While Hargeisa has made progress on the basics of own-source revenue, much more is yet to be done to finance future development. Local government capital expenditure, for instance, is often far below what is budgeted. This is influenced by public demand for current and visible service delivery over and above less visible long-term investments. Furthermore, due to Somaliland’s internationally unrecognised status as an independent country, Hargeisa received limited development assistance when compared to other cities in similar contexts. However, a small coordinated effort through a coalition of UN agencies has fundamentally shaped some of the city’s reforms. As the country begins to formalise its financial sector, opening up to commercial banking and international investment, development support will be needed to ensure local governments and the private sector are able to capitalise on the opportunities this presents.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

From this edition, the Financial Stability Report will have fewer pages with some changes in its structure. The purpose of this change is to present the most relevant facts of the financial system and their implications on the financial stability. This allows displaying the analysis more concisely and clearly, as it will focus on describing the evolution of the variables that have the greatest impact on the performance of the financial system, for estimating then the effect of a possible materialization of these risks on the financial health of the institutions. The changing dynamics of the risks faced by the financial system implies that the content of the Report adopts this new structure; therefore, some analyses and series that were regularly included will not necessarily be in each issue. However, the statistical annex that accompanies the publication of the Report will continue to present the series that were traditionally included, regardless of whether or not they are part of the content of the Report. In this way we expect to contribute in a more comprehensive way to the study and analysis of the stability of the Colombian financial system. Executive Summary During the first half of 2015, the main advanced economies showed a slow recovery on their growth, while emerging economies continued with their slowdown trend. Domestic demand in the United States allowed for stabilization on its average growth for the first half of the year, while other developed economies such as the United Kingdom, the euro zone, and Japan showed a more gradual recovery. On the other hand, the Chinese economy exhibited the lowest growth rate in five years, which has resulted in lower global dynamism. This has led to a fall in prices of the main export goods of some Latin American economies, especially oil, whose price has also responded to a larger global supply. The decrease in the terms of trade of the Latin American economies has had an impact on national income, domestic demand, and growth. This scenario has been reflected in increases in sovereign risk spreads, devaluations of stock indices, and depreciation of the exchange rates of most countries in the region. For Colombia, the fall in oil prices has also led to a decline in the terms of trade, resulting in pressure on the dynamics of national income. Additionally, the lower demand for exports helped to widen the current account deficit. This affected the prospects and economic growth of the country during the first half of 2015. This economic context could have an impact on the payment capacity of debtors and on the valuation of investments, affecting the soundness of the financial system. However, the results of the analysis featured in this edition of the Report show that, facing an adverse scenario, the vulnerability of the financial system in terms of solvency and liquidity is low. The analysis of the current situation of credit institutions (CI) shows that growth of the gross loan portfolio remained relatively stable, as well as the loan portfolio quality indicators, except for microcredit, which showed a decrease in these indicators. Regarding liabilities, traditional sources of funding have lost market share versus non-traditional ones (bonds, money market operations and in the interbank market), but still represent more than 70%. Moreover, the solvency indicator remained relatively stable. As for non-banking financial institutions (NBFI), the slowdown observed during the first six months of 2015 in the real annual growth of the assets total, both in the proprietary and third party position, stands out. The analysis of the main debtors of the financial system shows that indebtedness of the private corporate sector has increased in the last year, mostly driven by an increase in the debt balance with domestic and foreign financial institutions. However, the increase in this latter source of funding has been influenced by the depreciation of the Colombian peso vis-à-vis the US dollar since mid-2014. The financial indicators reflected a favorable behavior with respect to the historical average, except for the profitability indicators; although they were below the average, they have shown improvement in the last year. By economic sector, it is noted that the firms focused on farming, mining and transportation activities recorded the highest levels of risk perception by credit institutions, and the largest increases in default levels with respect to those observed in December 2014. Meanwhile, households have shown an increase in the financial burden, mainly due to growth in the consumer loan portfolio, in which the modalities of credit card, payroll deductible loan, revolving and vehicle loan are those that have reported greater increases in risk indicators. On the side of investments that could be affected by the devaluation in the portfolio of credit institutions and non-banking financial institutions (NBFI), the largest share of public debt securities, variable-yield securities and domestic private debt securities is highlighted. The value of these portfolios fell between February and August 2015, driven by the devaluation in the market of these investments throughout the year. Furthermore, the analysis of the liquidity risk indicator (LRI) shows that all intermediaries showed adequate levels and exhibit a stable behavior. Likewise, the fragility analysis of the financial system associated with the increase in the use of non-traditional funding sources does not evidence a greater exposure to liquidity risk. Stress tests assess the impact of the possible joint materialization of credit and market risks, and reveal that neither the aggregate solvency indicator, nor the liquidity risk indicator (LRI) of the system would be below the established legal limits. The entities that result more individually affected have a low share in the total assets of the credit institutions; therefore, a risk to the financial system as a whole is not observed. José Darío Uribe Governor