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1
Siek, M., and D. P. Solomatine. "Nonlinear chaotic model for predicting storm surges." Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 17, no. 5 (2010): 405–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/npg-17-405-2010.
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Abstract. This paper addresses the use of the methods of nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory for building a predictive chaotic model from time series. The chaotic model predictions are made by the adaptive local models based on the dynamical neighbors found in the reconstructed phase space of the observables. We implemented the univariate and multivariate chaotic models with direct and multi-steps prediction techniques and optimized these models using an exhaustive search method. The built models were tested for predicting storm surge dynamics for different stormy conditions in the North Sea, and are compared to neural network models. The results show that the chaotic models can generally provide reliable and accurate short-term storm surge predictions.
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Carlsson, Leo S., Mikael Vejdemo-Johansson, Gunnar Carlsson, and Pär G. Jönsson. "Fibers of Failure: Classifying Errors in Predictive Processes." Algorithms 13, no. 6 (2020): 150. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/a13060150.
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Predictive models are used in many different fields of science and engineering and are always prone to make faulty predictions. These faulty predictions can be more or less malignant depending on the model application. We describe fibers of failure (FiFa), a method to classify failure modes of predictive processes. Our method uses Mapper, an algorithm from topological data analysis (TDA), to build a graphical model of input data stratified by prediction errors. We demonstrate two ways to use the failure mode groupings: either to produce a correction layer that adjusts predictions by similarity to the failure modes; or to inspect members of the failure modes to illustrate and investigate what characterizes each failure mode. We demonstrate FiFa on two scenarios: a convolutional neural network (CNN) predicting MNIST images with added noise, and an artificial neural network (ANN) predicting the electrical energy consumption of an electric arc furnace (EAF). The correction layer on the CNN model improved its prediction accuracy significantly while the inspection of failure modes for the EAF model provided guiding insights into the domain-specific reasons behind several high-error regions.
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Prédhumeau, Manon, Lyuba Mancheva, Julie Dugdale, and Anne Spalanzani. "Agent-Based Modeling for Predicting Pedestrian Trajectories Around an Autonomous Vehicle." Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research 73 (April 19, 2022): 1385–433. http://dx.doi.org/10.1613/jair.1.13425.
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This paper addresses modeling and simulating pedestrian trajectories when interacting with an autonomous vehicle in a shared space. Most pedestrian–vehicle interaction models are not suitable for predicting individual trajectories. Data-driven models yield accurate predictions but lack generalizability to new scenarios, usually do not run in real time and produce results that are poorly explainable. Current expert models do not deal with the diversity of possible pedestrian interactions with the vehicle in a shared space and lack microscopic validation. We propose an expert pedestrian model that combines the social force model and a new decision model for anticipating pedestrian–vehicle interactions. The proposed model integrates different observed pedestrian behaviors, as well as the behaviors of the social groups of pedestrians, in diverse interaction scenarios with a car. We calibrate the model by fitting the parameters values on a training set. We validate the model and evaluate its predictive potential through qualitative and quantitative comparisons with ground truth trajectories. The proposed model reproduces observed behaviors that have not been replicated by the social force model and outperforms the social force model at predicting pedestrian behavior around the vehicle on the used dataset. The model generates explainable and real-time trajectory predictions. Additional evaluation on a new dataset shows that the model generalizes well to new scenarios and can be applied to an autonomous vehicle embedded prediction.
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Siemens, Angela, Spencer J. Anderson, S. Rod Rassekh, Colin J. D. Ross, and Bruce C. Carleton. "A Systematic Review of Polygenic Models for Predicting Drug Outcomes." Journal of Personalized Medicine 12, no. 9 (2022): 1394. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jpm12091394.
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Polygenic models have emerged as promising prediction tools for the prediction of complex traits. Currently, the majority of polygenic models are developed in the context of predicting disease risk, but polygenic models may also prove useful in predicting drug outcomes. This study sought to understand how polygenic models incorporating pharmacogenetic variants are being used in the prediction of drug outcomes. A systematic review was conducted with the aim of gaining insights into the methods used to construct polygenic models, as well as their performance in drug outcome prediction. The search uncovered 89 papers that incorporated pharmacogenetic variants in the development of polygenic models. It was found that the most common polygenic models were constructed for drug dosing predictions in anticoagulant therapies (n = 27). While nearly all studies found a significant association with their polygenic model and the investigated drug outcome (93.3%), less than half (47.2%) compared the performance of the polygenic model against clinical predictors, and even fewer (40.4%) sought to validate model predictions in an independent cohort. Additionally, the heterogeneity of reported performance measures makes the comparison of models across studies challenging. These findings highlight key considerations for future work in developing polygenic models in pharmacogenomic research.
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Lyu, Xiaozhong, Cuiqing Jiang, Yong Ding, Zhao Wang, and Yao Liu. "Sales Prediction by Integrating the Heat and Sentiments of Product Dimensions." Sustainability 11, no. 3 (2019): 913. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11030913.
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Online word-of-mouth (eWOM) disseminated on social media contains a considerable amount of important information that can predict sales. However, the accuracy of sales prediction models using big data on eWOM is still unsatisfactory. We argue that eWOM contains the heat and sentiments of product dimensions, which can improve the accuracy of prediction models based on multiattribute attitude theory. In this paper, we propose a dynamic topic analysis (DTA) framework to extract the heat and sentiments of product dimensions from big data on eWOM. Ultimately, we propose an autoregressive heat-sentiment (ARHS) model that integrates the heat and sentiments of dimensions into the benchmark predictive model to forecast daily sales. We conduct an empirical study of the movie industry and confirm that the ARHS model is better than other models in predicting movie box-office revenues. The robustness check with regard to predicting opening-week revenues based on a back-propagation neural network also suggests that the heat and sentiments of dimensions can improve the accuracy of sales predictions when the machine-learning method is used.
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Wang, Chun Sheng. "Information-Entropy-Based Integrated Model for Predicting Burn-Through Point in Lead-Zinc Sintering Process." Advanced Materials Research 396-398 (November 2011): 40–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.396-398.40.
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This paper presents an information-entropy-based integrated model for predicting the burn-through point (BTP) in lead-zinc sintering process. First, a fuzzy T-S prediction model for BTP was established to deal with the uncertainty of the vertical burning speed. Considering the BTP is also affected by process parameters, a neural network (NN) prediction model for BTP was then built. Finally, an integrated model for predicting the BTP was constructed by combining the above two models using the recursive entropy algorithm. The practical running results demonstrate the validity of the proposed integrated predictive model.
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Carton, Quinten, Bart Merema, and Hilde Breesch. "Recommendations for model identification for MPC of an all-Air HVAC system." E3S Web of Conferences 246 (2021): 11006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202124611006.
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Rule-based control (RBC) strategies are often unable to execute the optimal control action, which leads to unnecessary energy consumption and suboptimal comfort. Model predictive control (MPC) is a dynamic control strategy for heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems that is mostly more capable of performing optimal control actions. The identification process of predictive models is an essential aspect of MPC. However, this model identification process remains time consuming due to the large variation in buildings and systems. The aim of this paper is to determine guidelines to identify predictive grey-box models more time efficient, thus enhancing the applicability of MPC. This paper focusses on a case study building equipped with an all-air HVAC system, which combines ventilation, heating and cooling. Making both temperature and CO2-concentration key parameters to predict. The grey-box model represents an open zone in a landscaped office, making the influence of neighbouring zones an additional challenge. Different models for predicting the zone temperature and CO2-concentration are identified, evaluated and validated using CTSM-R. The following aspects are studied: the dataset size, the influence of neighbouring zones, the difference between winter and summer conditions, number of states and the prediction horizon. A three state RC-model with the implementation of the zone temperature of one neighbouring zone is preferred for predicting the indoor temperature with an acceptable prediction horizon of one day. However, this temperature model is not suitable during sunny periods. A simple model representing a mass balance obtains accurate predictions of the zone CO2-concentration for a timestep of 15 minutes. For both model types the utilization of 5-day datasets is favoured over 12-day datasets due to a shorter monitoring period, lower prediction error and an easier parameter convergence. The usage of 12-day datasets is only preferred when an accurate estimation of the thermal inertia is pursued.
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Motesharei, Arman, Cecile Batailler, Daniele De Massari, Graham Vincent, Antonia F. Chen, and Sébastien Lustig. "Predicting robotic-assisted total knee arthroplasty operating time." Bone & Joint Open 3, no. 5 (2022): 383–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1302/2633-1462.35.bjo-2022-0014.r1.
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Aims No predictive model has been published to forecast operating time for total knee arthroplasty (TKA). The aims of this study were to design and validate a predictive model to estimate operating time for robotic-assisted TKA based on demographic data, and evaluate the added predictive power of CT scan-based predictors and their impact on the accuracy of the predictive model. Methods A retrospective study was conducted on 1,061 TKAs performed from January 2016 to December 2019 with an image-based robotic-assisted system. Demographic data included age, sex, height, and weight. The femoral and tibial mechanical axis and the osteophyte volume were calculated from CT scans. These inputs were used to develop a predictive model aimed to predict operating time based on demographic data only, and demographic and 3D patient anatomy data. Results The key factors for predicting operating time were the surgeon and patient weight, followed by 12 anatomical parameters derived from CT scans. The predictive model based only on demographic data showed that 90% of predictions were within 15 minutes of actual operating time, with 73% within ten minutes. The predictive model including demographic data and CT scans showed that 94% of predictions were within 15 minutes of actual operating time and 88% within ten minutes. Conclusion The primary factors for predicting robotic-assisted TKA operating time were surgeon, patient weight, and osteophyte volume. This study demonstrates that incorporating 3D patient-specific data can improve operating time predictions models, which may lead to improved operating room planning and efficiency. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(5):383–389.
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Tang, Li, Ping He Pan, and Yong Yi Yao. "EPAK: A Computational Intelligence Model for 2-level Prediction of Stock Indices." International Journal of Computers Communications & Control 13, no. 2 (2018): 268–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.15837/ijccc.2018.2.3187.
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This paper proposes a new computational intelligence model for predicting univariate time series, called EPAK, and a complex prediction model for stock market index synthesizing all the sector index predictions using EPAK as a kernel. The EPAK model uses a complex nonlinear feature extraction procedure integrating a forward rolling Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) for financial time series signal analysis and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for dimension reduction to generate information-rich features as input to a new two-layer K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) with Affinity Propagation (AP) clustering for prediction via regression. The EPAK model is then used as a kernel for predicting each of all the sector indices of the stock market. The sector indices predictions are then synthesized via weighted average to generate the prediction of the stock market index, yielding a complex prediction model for the stock market index. The EPAK model and the complex prediction model for stock index are tested on real historical financial time series in Chinese stock index including CSI 300 and ten sector indices, with results confirming the effectiveness of the proposed models.
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Rather, Akhter Mohiuddin. "A Hybrid Intelligent Method of Predicting Stock Returns." Advances in Artificial Neural Systems 2014 (September 7, 2014): 1–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/246487.
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This paper proposes a novel method for predicting stock returns by means of a hybrid intelligent model. Initially predictions are obtained by a linear model, and thereby prediction errors are collected and fed into a recurrent neural network which is actually an autoregressive moving reference neural network. Recurrent neural network results in minimized prediction errors because of nonlinear processing and also because of its configuration. These prediction errors are used to obtain final predictions by summation method as well as by multiplication method. The proposed model is thus hybrid of both a linear and a nonlinear model. The model has been tested on stock data obtained from National Stock Exchange of India. The results indicate that the proposed model can be a promising approach in predicting future stock movements.
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Jeong, Jiseok, and Changwan Kim. "Comparison of Machine Learning Approaches for Medium-to-Long-Term Financial Distress Predictions in the Construction Industry." Buildings 12, no. 10 (2022): 1759. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/buildings12101759.
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A method for predicting the financial status of construction companies after a medium-to-long-term period can help stakeholders in large construction projects make decisions to select an appropriate company for the project. This study compares the performances of various prediction models. It proposes an appropriate model for predicting the financial distress of construction companies considering three, five, and seven years ahead of the prediction point. To establish the prediction model, a financial ratio was selected, which was adopted in existing studies on medium-to-long-term predictions in other industries, as an additional input variable. To compare the performances of the prediction models, single-machine learning and ensemble models’ performances were compared. The comprehensive performance comparison of these models was based on the average value of the prediction performance and the results of the Friedman test. The comparison result determined that the random subspace (RS) model exhibited the best performance in predicting the financial status of construction companies after a medium-to-long-term period. The proposed model can be effectively employed to help large-scale project stakeholders avoid damage caused by the financial distress of construction companies during the project implementation process.
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Park, Jiwon, Sung Hyup Hong, Sang Hun Yeon, Byeong Mo Seo, and Kwang Ho Lee. "Predictive Model for Solar Insolation Using the Deep Learning Technique." International Journal of Energy Research 2023 (February 3, 2023): 1–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2023/3525651.
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In this study, prediction performances of a regression model and deep learning-based predictive models were comparatively analyzed for the prediction of hourly insolation in regions located at the temperate climate and microthermal climate with high precipitation. Unlike linear regression models, artificial neural networks (ANN) and long short-term memory- (LSTM-) based models achieved reliable predictive performances with CV(RMSE) of 14.0% and 15.8%, respectively. This study proposed the direction of future research by improving the performance of predicting insolation at 1 hour after the current time-step, which has time-dependent characteristics, by utilizing insolation at 24 hours before the current time-step and insolation at the current time-step in addition to the forecasted weather data. In the proposed models, a large error occurred at sunrise and sunset times, suggesting the possibility of improving predictive performance by utilizing variables related to sunrise and sunset in the future. Along with Cheongju, the proposed model could properly predict the hourly insolation in other regions around the world. The results of predicting other regions derived slightly higher prediction errors than Cheongju. However, it is expected that it will be possible to predict the hourly insolation in other regions with better prediction performance if variables related to geographical location are additionally considered in the future.
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Vlaović-Begović, Sanja, Stevan Tomašević, and Dajana Ercegovac. "Selection of variables in the function of improving the bankruptcy prediction model." Ekonomika 68, no. 3 (2022): 45–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.5937/ekonomika2203045v.
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The significance of early disclosure of the probability of launching a bankruptcy proceeding leads the authors to develop a model of high prediction power. In this way, the authors use different variables and statistical tools, and techniques. The impact of the economic environment and data availability limits the introduction of certain variables in bankruptcy prediction models. The paper aims to explore attitudes in existing literature regarding the selection of variables used to develop models for predicting bankruptcy, their characteristics, limitations, and impact on the power of predictions. The labor findings show that the historical character of the data and the conservative approach to financial reporting have turned authors to the use of non-financial and market variables. For the most part, efficient markets absorb all external and internal information and future predictions, which are read through market prices. However, this assumption does not apply to less developed markets, and the use of market variables is questionable. In conditions of increased systemic risk, macroeconomic variables can be good indicators for predicting the likelihood of bankruptcy. Developing a model for predicting bankruptcy requires looking at the economic environment and choosing variables that correspond to existing business conditions. With the changing economic environment, adjustment of the model needs to be made so that the accuracy of the forecast does not decrease.
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Asiah, Mat, Khidzir Nik Zulkarnaen, Deris Safaai, Mat Yaacob Nik Nurul Hafzan, Mohamad Mohd Saberi, and Safaai Siti Syuhaida. "A Review on Predictive Modeling Technique for Student Academic Performance Monitoring." MATEC Web of Conferences 255 (2019): 03004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/201925503004.
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Despite of providing high quality of education, demand on predicting student academic performance become more critical to improve the quality and assisting students to achieve a great performance in their studies. The lack of existing an efficiency and accurate prediction model is one of the major issues. Predictive analytics can provide institution with intuitive and better decision making. The objective of this paper is to review current research activities related to academic analytics focusing on predicting student academic performance. Various methods have been proposed by previous researchers to develop the best performance model using variety of students data, techniques, algorithms and tools. Predictive modeling used in predicting student performance are related to several learning tasks such as classification, regression and clustering. To achieve best prediction model, a lot of variables have been chosen and tested to find most influential attributes to perform prediction. Accurate performance prediction will be helpful in order to provide guidance in learning process that will benefit to students in avoiding poor scores. The predictive model furthermore can help instructor to forecast course completion including student final grade which are directly correlated to student performance success. To harvest an effective predictive model, it requires a good input data and variables, suitable predictive method as well as powerful and robust prediction model.
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Al-Hasnawi, Salim Sallal, and Laith Haleem Al-Hchemi*. "CLOSING PRICE PREDICTION OF STOCK LISTED ON THE IRAQ STOCK EXCHANGE USING ANN-LSTM." JURISMA : Jurnal Riset Bisnis & Manajemen 12, no. 2 (2022): 173–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.34010/jurisma.v12i2.8103.
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Financial markets are highly reactive to events and situations, as seen by the very volatile movement of stock values. As a result, investors are having difficulties guessing prices and making investment decisions, especially when statistical techniques have failed to model historical prices. This paper aims to propose an RNNs-based predictive model using the LSTM model for predicting the closing price of four stocks listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange (ISX). The data used are historical closing prices provided by ISX for the period from 2/1/2019 to 24/12/2020. Several attempts were conducted to improve model training and minimize the prediction error, as models were evaluated using MSE, RMSE, and R2. The models performed with high accuracy in predicting closing price movement, despite the Intense volatility of time series. The empirical study concluded the possibility of relying on the RNN-LSTM model in predicting close prices at the ISX as well as decisions making upon.
 Keywords: Stock, LSTM, Prediction, ANN, RNN, ISX
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Rinella, Matthew J., and Roger L. Sheley. "A model for predicting invasive weed and grass dynamics. I. Model development." Weed Science 53, no. 5 (2005): 586–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1614/ws-04-190r2.1.
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Invasive weed managers are presented with a complicated and ever-enlarging set of management alternatives. Identifying the optimal weed management strategy for a given set of conditions requires predicting how candidate strategies will affect plant community composition. Although field experiments have advanced our ability to predict postmanagement composition, extrapolation problems limit the prediction accuracy achieved by interpreting treatment means as predictions. Examples of extrapolation problems include nonlinear relationships between competing plants, site-to-site variation in plant population growth rates, and the carrying capacities of desired species and weeds. Our objective was to develop a model that improves predictions of weed management outcomes by overcoming a subset of these problems. To develop the model, we used data from two field experiments in which four Kentucky bluegrass, six western wheatgrass, and six invasive plant (i.e., leafy spurge) densities were combined in field plots. Graphs of our model's predictions vs. observed field experiment data indicate that the model predicted the data accurately. Our model may improve predictions of plant community response to invasive weed management actions.
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Wiyono, Slamet, and Taufiq Abidin. "COMPARATIVE STUDY OF MACHINE LEARNING KNN, SVM, AND DECISION TREE ALGORITHM TO PREDICT STUDENT’S PERFORMANCE." International Journal of Research -GRANTHAALAYAH 7, no. 1 (2019): 190–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.29121/granthaalayah.v7.i1.2019.1048.
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Students who are not-active will affect the number of students who graduate on time. Prevention of not-active students can be done by predicting student performance. The study was conducted by comparing the KNN, SVM, and Decision Tree algorithms to get the best predictive model. The model making process was carried out by steps; data collecting, pre-processing, model building, comparison of models, and evaluation. The results show that the SVM algorithm has the best accuracy in predicting with a precision value of 95%. The Decision Tree algorithm has a prediction accuracy of 93% and the KNN algorithm has a prediction accuracy value of 92%.
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Fudenberg, Drew, and Annie Liang. "Predicting and Understanding Initial Play." American Economic Review 109, no. 12 (2019): 4112–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.20180654.
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We use machine learning to uncover regularities in the initial play of matrix games. We first train a prediction algorithm on data from past experiments. Examining the games where our algorithm predicts correctly, but existing economic models don’t, leads us to add a parameter to the best performing model that improves predictive accuracy. We then observe play in a collection of new “ algorithmically generated” games, and learn that we can obtain even better predictions with a hybrid model that uses a decision tree to decide game-by-game which of two economic models to use for prediction. (JEL C70, C91)
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Kelly, Alison, David C. Powell, and Robert A. Riggs. "Predicting Potential Natural Vegetation in an Interior Northwest Landscape Using Classification Tree Modeling and a GIS." Western Journal of Applied Forestry 20, no. 2 (2005): 117–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/wjaf/20.2.117.
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Abstract Integration of a GIS with statistical predictive models facilitates mapping the likely spatial distribution of plant associations and modification of maps as new data or vegetation-environment relationships are discovered. In this study, data for classified plant communities were used to develop a georeferenced database representing 39 plant associations and environmental variables at 1,249 plot locations. This database was used to develop models predicting the occurrence of plant associations. These predictive models were implemented in a GIS to render maps of predictable plant associations, plant association groups, and overstory series. Overall model accuracy ranged from 30% for the model predicting plant association to 63% for the model predicting series. However, several associations, groups, and even series could not be predicted, and model performance for those that were predictable often differed from overall model accuracy. Association-level accuracy of model predictions ranged from 18 to 84% while series-level accuracy ranged from 41 to 85%. Model selection for management applications should be based on specific management objectives. Expansion of the regional sample of reference plots and database augmentations, including documentation of disturbance histories, should provide useful enhancements for future modeling efforts. West. J. Appl. For. 20(2):117–127.
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Masood, Omar, Shahid Mohammad Khan Ghauri, and Bora Aktan. "Predicting Islamic banks performance through CAMELS rating model." Banks and Bank Systems 11, no. 3 (2016): 37–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/bbs.11(3).2016.04.
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This paper analyzes the performance of Islamic banks operating in Pakistan according to their financial results of the year 2015. CAMELS rating model is applied in this research. This model is based on certain financial ratios which are excerpt from values in the financial statements of banks. The authors conduct the research under the umbrella of quantitative paradigm. The authors found that 2 of the Islamic banks are showing satisfactory results, while others are on fair position. There is a need to develop financial markets for treasury operations for these banks. Results help in development of growth strategy for Islamic banks in Pakistan, as well as they might be useful to create a fair snapshot for regulators to develop growth strategy for this stream of banking. Keywords: Islamic banking, performance, growth analysis, CAMELS. JEL Classification: G02, G21, G32
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OSCAR, THOMAS P. "Development and Validation of a Predictive Microbiology Model for Survival and Growth of Salmonella on Chicken Stored at 4 to 12°C†." Journal of Food Protection 74, no. 2 (2011): 279–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.4315/0362-028x.jfp-10-314.
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Salmonella spp. are a leading cause of foodborne illness. Mathematical models that predict Salmonella survival and growth on food from a low initial dose, in response to storage and handling conditions, are valuable tools for helping assess and manage this public health risk. The objective of this study was to develop and to validate the first predictive microbiology model for survival and growth of a low initial dose of Salmonella on chicken during refrigerated storage. Chicken skin was inoculated with a low initial dose (0.9 log) of a multiple antibiotic-resistant strain of Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 (ATCC 700408) and then stored at 4 to 12°C for 0 to 10 days. A general regression neural network (GRNN) model that predicted log change of Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 as a function of time and temperature was developed. Percentage of residuals in an acceptable prediction zone, from −1 (fail-safe) to 0.5 (fail-dangerous) log, was used to validate the GRNN model by using a criterion of 70% acceptable predictions. Survival but not growth of Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 was observed at 4 to 8°C. Maximum growth of Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 during 10 days of storage was 0.7 log at 9°C, 1.1 log at 10°C, 1.8 log at 11°C, and 2.9 log at 12°C. Performance of the GRNN model for predicting dependent data (n = 163) was 85% acceptable predictions, for predicting independent data for interpolation (n = 77) was 84% acceptable predictions, and for predicting independent data for extrapolation (n = 70) to Salmonella Kentucky was 87% acceptable predictions. Thus, the GRNN model provided valid predictions for survival and growth of Salmonella on chicken during refrigerated storage, and therefore the model can be used with confidence to help assess and manage this public health risk.
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Su, Te-Jen, Feng-Chun Lee, and Shih-Ming Wang. "Building Statistical Model for Predicting Risk of Diabetes." International Journal of Clinical Medicine and Bioengineering 2, no. 2 (2022): 35–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.35745/ijcmb2022v02.02.0004.
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In recent years, diabetes has become one of the most common human diseases in the world, and is even the main cause of high mortality and economic losses, while timely diagnosis and prediction provide patients with appropriate methods for prevention and treatment. By using a logistic regression model, we tried to predict type 2 diabetes. The statistical analysis was conducted with SPSS for descriptive analysis of data, a chi-square test, and logistic regression analysis to predict the risk factor of diabetes. As the result, five main predictive factors were identified: waist circumference, family history, hypertension, cardiovascular disease, and age. The overall prediction rate of the logistic regression model for predicting diabetes was 80%. The research results help prevent the occurrence of diabetes or facilitate early treatment, reduce misdiagnosis and avoid wasting health care resources.
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Xu, Jing Wen, Jun Fang Zhao, Wan Chang Zhang, and Xiao Xun Xu. "A Novel Soil Moisture Predicting Method Based on Artificial Neural Network and Xinanjiang Model." Advanced Materials Research 121-122 (June 2010): 1028–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.121-122.1028.
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Soil moisture plays an important role in agricultural drought predicting, therefore there is an increasing demand for detailed predictions of soil moisture, especially at basin scales. However, so far soil moisture predictions are usually obtained as a by-product of climate and weather prediction models coupled with a land surface parameterization scheme, and there has been little dedicated work to meet this urgent need at basin scales. In order to improve the basin hydrological models’ performance in the soil moisture forecasting, an integrated soil moisture predicting model based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Xinanjiang model is proposed and presented in this paper. The performance of the new integrated soil moisture predicting model was tested in the Linyi watershed with a drainage area of 10040 km2, located in the semi-arid area of the eastern China. The results suggest that the soil moisture simulated by the integrated ANN-Xinanjiang model is more agree with the observed ones than that simulated by Xinanjiang, and that the simulated soil moisture by both the models has the similar trend and temporal change pattern with the observed one.
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Bhatta, Madhav, Lucia Gutierrez, Lorena Cammarota, et al. "Multi-trait Genomic Prediction Model Increased the Predictive Ability for Agronomic and Malting Quality Traits in Barley (Hordeum vulgare L.)." G3: Genes|Genomes|Genetics 10, no. 3 (2020): 1113–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.1534/g3.119.400968.
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Plant breeders regularly evaluate multiple traits across multiple environments, which opens an avenue for using multiple traits in genomic prediction models. We assessed the potential of multi-trait (MT) genomic prediction model through evaluating several strategies of incorporating multiple traits (eight agronomic and malting quality traits) into the prediction models with two cross-validation schemes (CV1, predicting new lines with genotypic information only and CV2, predicting partially phenotyped lines using both genotypic and phenotypic information from correlated traits) in barley. The predictive ability was similar for single (ST-CV1) and multi-trait (MT-CV1) models to predict new lines. However, the predictive ability for agronomic traits was considerably increased when partially phenotyped lines (MT-CV2) were used. The predictive ability for grain yield using the MT-CV2 model with other agronomic traits resulted in 57% and 61% higher predictive ability than ST-CV1 and MT-CV1 models, respectively. Therefore, complex traits such as grain yield are better predicted when correlated traits are used. Similarly, a considerable increase in the predictive ability of malting quality traits was observed when correlated traits were used. The predictive ability for grain protein content using the MT-CV2 model with both agronomic and malting traits resulted in a 76% higher predictive ability than ST-CV1 and MT-CV1 models. Additionally, the higher predictive ability for new environments was obtained for all traits using the MT-CV2 model compared to the MT-CV1 model. This study showed the potential of improving the genomic prediction of complex traits by incorporating the information from multiple traits (cost-friendly and easy to measure traits) collected throughout breeding programs which could assist in speeding up breeding cycles.
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Su, Po-Yuan, Yi-Chia Wei, Hao Luo, et al. "Machine Learning Models for Predicting Influential Factors of Early Outcomes in Acute Ischemic Stroke: Registry-Based Study." JMIR Medical Informatics 10, no. 3 (2022): e32508. http://dx.doi.org/10.2196/32508.
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Background Timely and accurate outcome prediction plays a vital role in guiding clinical decisions on acute ischemic stroke. Early condition deterioration and severity after the acute stage are determinants for long-term outcomes. Therefore, predicting early outcomes is crucial in acute stroke management. However, interpreting the predictions and transforming them into clinically explainable concepts are as important as the predictions themselves. Objective This work focused on machine learning model analysis in predicting the early outcomes of ischemic stroke and used model explanation skills in interpreting the results. Methods Acute ischemic stroke patients registered on the Stroke Registry of the Chang Gung Healthcare System (SRICHS) in 2009 were enrolled for machine learning predictions of the two primary outcomes: modified Rankin Scale (mRS) at hospital discharge and in-hospital deterioration. We compared 4 machine learning models, namely support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), light gradient boosting machine (LGBM), and deep neural network (DNN), with the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve. Further, 3 resampling methods, random under sampling (RUS), random over sampling, and the synthetic minority over-sampling technique, dealt with the imbalanced data. The models were explained based on the ranking of feature importance and the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). Results RF performed well in both outcomes (discharge mRS: mean AUC 0.829, SD 0.018; in-hospital deterioration: mean AUC 0.710, SD 0.023 on original data and 0.728, SD 0.036 on resampled data with RUS for imbalanced data). In addition, DNN outperformed other models in predicting in-hospital deterioration on data without resampling (mean AUC 0.732, SD 0.064). In general, resampling contributed to the limited improvement of model performance in predicting in-hospital deterioration using imbalanced data. The features obtained from the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), white blood cell differential counts, and age were the key features for predicting discharge mRS. In contrast, the NIHSS total score, initial blood pressure, having diabetes mellitus, and features from hemograms were the most important features in predicting in-hospital deterioration. The SHAP summary described the impacts of the feature values on each outcome prediction. Conclusions Machine learning models are feasible in predicting early stroke outcomes. An enriched feature bank could improve model performance. Initial neurological levels and age determined the activity independence at hospital discharge. In addition, physiological and laboratory surveillance aided in predicting in-hospital deterioration. The use of the SHAP explanatory method successfully transformed machine learning predictions into clinically meaningful results.
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Khan, Mohd Jawad Ur Rehman, and Anjali Awasthi. "Machine learning model development for predicting road transport GHG emissions in Canada." WSB Journal of Business and Finance 53, no. 2 (2019): 55–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/wsbjbf-2019-0022.
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Abstract Prediction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is important to minimise their negative impact on climate change and global warming. In this article, we propose new models based on data mining and supervised machine learning algorithms (regression and classification) for predicting GHG emissions arising from passenger and freight road transport in Canada. Four models are investigated, namely, artificial neural network multilayer perceptron, multiple linear regression, multinomial logistic regression and decision tree models. From the results, it was found that artificial neural network multilayer perceptron model showed better predictive performance over other models. Ensemble technique (Bagging & Boosting) was applied on the developed multilayer perceptron model, which significantly improved the model’s predictive performance.
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Kim, Jisun, Jaewoong Kim, Changmin Pyo, and Kwangsan Chun. "Bead Geometry Prediction Model for 9% Nickel Laser Weldment, Part 1: Global Regression Model vs. Modified Regression Model." Processes 9, no. 5 (2021): 793. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/pr9050793.
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Due to its excellent toughness and stiffness in cryogenic conditions, 9% nickel steel is applied to LNG storage facilities, and its usage is increasing as a result of changes in environmental regulations. A study was conducted on the development of a predictive model to optimize the laser welding process of 9% nickel steel, and two prediction models were developed using one hundred data points obtained through experiments. A global regression model used as a general prediction model and a modified regression model using the p-value of the analysis of variance were developed, and their prediction performance was compared. It was found that the modified regression model was superior to the global regression model in terms of predicting the bead shape, including parameters such as penetration depth, bead height, and area ratio.
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Guo, Shengnan, and Jianqiu Xu. "CPRQ: Cost Prediction for Range Queries in Moving Object Databases." ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information 10, no. 7 (2021): 468. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijgi10070468.
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Predicting query cost plays an important role in moving object databases. Accurate predictions help database administrators effectively schedule workloads and achieve optimal resource allocation strategies. There are some works focusing on query cost prediction, but most of them employ analytical methods to obtain an index-based cost prediction model. The accuracy can be seriously challenged as the workload of the database management system becomes more and more complex. Differing from the previous work, this paper proposes a method called CPRQ (Cost Prediction of Range Query) which is based on machine-learning techniques. The proposed method contains four learning models: the polynomial regression model, the decision tree regression model, the random forest regression model, and the KNN (k-Nearest Neighbor) regression model. Using R-squared and MSE (Mean Squared Error) as measurements, we perform an extensive experimental evaluation. The results demonstrate that CPRQ achieves high accuracy and the random forest regression model obtains the best predictive performance (R-squared is 0.9695 and MSE is 0.154).
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Masdiantini, Putu Riesty, and Ni Made Sindy Warasniasih. "Laporan Keuangan dan Prediksi Kebangkrutan Perusahaan." Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi 5, no. 1 (2020): 196. http://dx.doi.org/10.23887/jia.v5i1.25119.
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This study aims to determine differences in bankruptcy predictions at company’s sub-sector of cosmetics and household listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) using the Altman model, Springate model, Zmijewski model, Taffler model, and Fulmer model, and to determine the bankruptcy prediction model that is the most accurate of the five bankruptcy prediction models. This study uses secondary data in the form of company financial statements for the period 2014-2018. Data analysis techniques in this study used the Kruskal-Wallis test. The results showed there were differences in bankruptcy predictions using the Altman model, Springate model, Zmijewski model, Taffler model, and Fulmer model. The Zmijewski, Taffler, and Fulmer models have the same accuracy level of 100% so that the three prediction models are the most accurate prediction models for predicting the potential bankruptcy at companies sub-sector of cosmetics and household listed on the IDX.
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Prakash, Mithilesh, Mahmoud Abdelaziz, Linda Zhang, Bryan A. Strange, and Jussi Tohka. "Quantitative Longitudinal Predictions of Alzheimer’s Disease by Multi-Modal Predictive Learning." Journal of Alzheimer's Disease 79, no. 4 (2021): 1533–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.3233/jad-200906.
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Background: Quantitatively predicting the progression of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) in an individual on a continuous scale, such as the Alzheimer’s Disease Assessment Scale-cognitive (ADAS-cog) scores, is informative for a personalized approach as opposed to qualitatively classifying the individual into a broad disease category. Objective: To evaluate the hypothesis that the multi-modal data and predictive learning models can be employed for future predicting ADAS-cog scores. Methods: Unimodal and multi-modal regression models were trained on baseline data comprised of demographics, neuroimaging, and cerebrospinal fluid based markers, and genetic factors to predict future ADAS-cog scores for 12, 24, and 36 months. We subjected the prediction models to repeated cross-validation and assessed the resulting mean absolute error (MAE) and cross-validated correlation (ρ) of the model. Results: Prediction models trained on multi-modal data outperformed the models trained on single modal data in predicting future ADAS-cog scores (MAE12, 24 & 36 months= 4.1, 4.5, and 5.0, ρ12, 24 & 36 months= 0.88, 0.82, and 0.75). Including baseline ADAS-cog scores to prediction models improved predictive performance (MAE12, 24 & 36 months= 3.5, 3.7, and 4.6, ρ12, 24 & 36 months= 0.89, 0.87, and 0.80). Conclusion: Future ADAS-cog scores were predicted which could aid clinicians in identifying those at greater risk of decline and apply interventions at an earlier disease stage and inform likely future disease progression in individuals enrolled in AD clinical trials.
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Elviani, Sri, Ramadona Simbolon, Zenni Riana, Farida Khairani, Sri Puspa Dewi, and Fauzi Fauzi. "The Accuracy of the Altman, Ohlson, Springate and Zmejewski Models in Bankruptcy Predicting Trade Sector Companies in Indonesia." Budapest International Research and Critics Institute (BIRCI-Journal) : Humanities and Social Sciences 3, no. 1 (2020): 334–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.33258/birci.v3i1.777.
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Bankruptcy prediction models continue to develop both in terms of forms, models, formulas, and analysis systems. Various bankruptcy prediction studies currently conducted aim to find the most appropriate and accurate bankruptcy prediction model to be used in predicting bankruptcy. This study aims to determine the most appropriate and accurate model in predicting the bankruptcy of 53 trade sector companies in Indonesia. The analysis technique used in this study is binary logistic regression. The results of this study prove that the most appropriate and accurate model in predicting bankruptcy of trade sector companies in Indonesia is the Springate model and the Altman model
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Yoo, Jang, Jaeho Lee, Miju Cheon, et al. "Predictive Value of 18F-FDG PET/CT Using Machine Learning for Pathological Response to Neoadjuvant Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy in Patients with Stage III Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer." Cancers 14, no. 8 (2022): 1987. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cancers14081987.
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We investigated predictions from 18F-FDG PET/CT using machine learning (ML) to assess the neoadjuvant CCRT response of patients with stage III non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and compared them with predictions from conventional PET parameters and from physicians. A retrospective study was conducted of 430 patients. They underwent 18F-FDG PET/CT before initial treatment and after neoadjuvant CCRT followed by curative surgery. We analyzed texture features from segmented tumors and reviewed the pathologic response. The ML model employed a random forest and was used to classify the binary outcome of the pathological complete response (pCR). The predictive accuracy of the ML model for the pCR was 93.4%. The accuracy of predicting pCR using the conventional PET parameters was up to 70.9%, and the accuracy of the physicians’ assessment was 80.5%. The accuracy of the prediction from the ML model was significantly higher than those derived from conventional PET parameters and provided by physicians (p < 0.05). The ML model is useful for predicting pCR after neoadjuvant CCRT, which showed a higher predictive accuracy than those achieved from conventional PET parameters and from physicians.
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Wu, Xinhua, Nan Chen, Qianyun Du, Shuangshuang Mao, and Xiaoming Ju. "Short-term wind power prediction model based on ARMA-GRU-QPSO and error correction." Journal of Physics: Conference Series 2427, no. 1 (2023): 012028. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/2427/1/012028.
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Abstract Power system dispatch benefits from accurate wind power predictions. To increase the prediction precision for wind power, this paper proposes a combined model for predicting short-term wind power based on the autoregressive moving average-gated recurrent unit (ARMA-GRU). Firstly, we build the ARMA model and GRU model respectively to predict wind power. Then we optimize the combined model’s weights by quantum particle swarm algorithm (QPSO). Finally, we build an error correction model for the prediction errors to acquire the final results for the wind power predictions. Our experimental results prove the model’s reliability and the model’s high predictability is verified by comparing different prediction models.
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Huang, Yanyan, Huijun Wang, and Ke Fan. "Improving the Prediction of the Summer Asian–Pacific Oscillation Using the Interannual Increment Approach." Journal of Climate 27, no. 21 (2014): 8126–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00209.1.
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Abstract The summer Asian–Pacific oscillation (APO) is a dominant teleconnection pattern over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere that links the large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies over the Asian–North Pacific Ocean sector. In this study, the direct Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) model outputs from 1960 to 2001, which are limited in predicting the interannual variability of the summer Asian upper-tropospheric temperature and the decadal variations, are applied using the interannual increment approach to improve the predictions of the summer APO. By treating the year-to-year increment as the predictand, the interannual increment scheme is shown to significantly improve the predictive ability for the interannual variability of the summer Asian upper-tropospheric temperature and the decadal variations. The improvements for the interannual and interdecadal summer APO variability predictions in the interannual increment scheme relative to the original scheme are clear and significant. Compared with the DEMETER direct outputs, the statistical model with two predictors of APO and sea surface temperature anomaly over the Atlantic shows a significantly improved ability to predict the interannual variability of the summer rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (SRYR). This study therefore describes a more efficient approach for predicting the APO and the SRYR.
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Al-Hassnawi, Salim Sallal, and Laith Haleem Malik Al-Hchemi. "Predicting The Stock Closing Price of ISX-Listed Companies Using LSTM." Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen dan Bisnis 8, no. 3 (2022): 391. http://dx.doi.org/10.22441/jimb.v8i3.17435.
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Financial markets are highly reactive to events and situations, as seen by the very volatile movement of stock values. As a result, investors are having difficulties guessing prices and making investment decisions, especially when statistical techniques have failed to model historical prices. This paper aims to propose an RNNs-based predictive model using the LSTM model for predicting the closing price of four stocks listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange (ISX). The data used are historical closing prices provided by ISX for the period from 2/1/2019 to 24/12/2020. Several attempts were conducted to improve models training and minimize the prediction error, as models were evaluated using MSE, RMSE, and R2. The models performed high accuracy in predicting closing price movement, despite the Intense volatility of time series. The empirical study concluded the possibility of relying on the RNN-LSTM model in predicting close prices at the ISX as well as decisions making upon.
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Zhou, Shitong, Lei Xu, and Nengcheng Chen. "Rice Yield Prediction in Hubei Province Based on Deep Learning and the Effect of Spatial Heterogeneity." Remote Sensing 15, no. 5 (2023): 1361. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs15051361.
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Timely and accurate crop yield information can ensure regional food security. In the field of predicting crop yields, deep learning techniques such as long short-term memory (LSTM) and convolutional neural networks (CNN) are frequently employed. Many studies have shown that the predictions of models combining the two are better than those of single models. Crop growth can be reflected by the vegetation index calculated using data from remote sensing. However, the use of pure remote sensing data alone ignores the spatial heterogeneity of different regions. In this paper, we tested a total of three models, CNN-LSTM, CNN and convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM), for predicting the annual rice yield at the county level in Hubei Province, China. The model was trained by ERA5 temperature (AT) data, MODIS remote sensing data including the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) and Soil-Adapted Vegetation Index (SAVI), and a dummy variable representing spatial heterogeneity; rice yield data from 2000–2019 were employed as labels. Data download and processing were based on Google Earth Engine (GEE). The downloaded remote sensing images were processed into normalized histograms for the training and prediction of deep learning models. According to the experimental findings, the model that included a dummy variable to represent spatial heterogeneity had a stronger predictive ability than the model trained using just remote sensing data. The prediction performance of the CNN-LSTM model outperformed the CNN or ConvLSTM model.
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Li, WenQiang, Ning Hou, and XiangKun Sun. "Method for Predicting Failure Rate of Airborne Equipment Based on Optimal Combination Model." Mathematical Problems in Engineering 2021 (December 20, 2021): 1–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/5199982.
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Accurate prediction of airborne equipment failure rate can provide correct repair and maintenance decisions and effectively establish a health management mechanism. This plays an important role in ensuring the safe use of the aircraft and flight safety. This paper proposes an optimal combination forecasting model, which mixes five single models (Multiple Linear Regression model (MLR), Gray model GM (1, N), Partial Least Squares model (PLS), Artificial Neural Network model (BP), and Support Vector Machine model (SVM)). The combined model and its single model are compared with the other three algorithms. Seven classic comparison functions are used for predictive performance evaluation indicators. The research results show that the combined model is superior to other models in terms of prediction accuracy. This paper provides a practical and effective method for predicting the airborne equipment failure rate.
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Sherstan, Craig, Shibhansh Dohare, James MacGlashan, Johannes Günther, and Patrick M. Pilarski. "Gamma-Nets: Generalizing Value Estimation over Timescale." Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence 34, no. 04 (2020): 5717–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v34i04.6027.
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Temporal abstraction is a key requirement for agents making decisions over long time horizons—a fundamental challenge in reinforcement learning. There are many reasons why value estimates at multiple timescales might be useful; recent work has shown that value estimates at different time scales can be the basis for creating more advanced discounting functions and for driving representation learning. Further, predictions at many different timescales serve to broaden an agent's model of its environment. One predictive approach of interest within an online learning setting is general value function (GVFs), which represent models of an agent's world as a collection of predictive questions each defined by a policy, a signal to be predicted, and a prediction timescale. In this paper we present Γ-nets, a method for generalizing value function estimation over timescale, allowing a given GVF to be trained and queried for arbitrary timescales so as to greatly increase the predictive ability and scalability of a GVF-based model. The key to our approach is to use timescale as one of the value estimator's inputs. As a result, the prediction target for any timescale is available at every timestep and we are free to train on any number of timescales. We first provide two demonstrations by 1) predicting a square wave and 2) predicting sensorimotor signals on a robot arm using a linear function approximator. Next, we empirically evaluate Γ-nets in the deep reinforcement learning setting using policy evaluation on a set of Atari video games. Our results show that Γ-nets can be effective for predicting arbitrary timescales, with only a small cost in accuracy as compared to learning estimators for fixed timescales. Γ-nets provide a method for accurately and compactly making predictions at many timescales without requiring a priori knowledge of the task, making it a valuable contribution to ongoing work on model-based planning, representation learning, and lifelong learning algorithms.
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Montgomery, Jacob M., Florian M. Hollenbach, and Michael D. Ward. "Improving Predictions using Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging." Political Analysis 20, no. 3 (2012): 271–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pan/mps002.
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We present ensemble Bayesian model averaging (EBMA) and illustrate its ability to aid scholars in the social sciences to make more accurate forecasts of future events. In essence, EBMA improves prediction by pooling information from multiple forecast models to generate ensemble predictions similar to a weighted average of component forecasts. The weight assigned to each forecast is calibrated via its performance in some validation period. The aim is not to choose some “best” model, but rather to incorporate the insights and knowledge implicit in various forecasting efforts via statistical postprocessing. After presenting the method, we show that EBMA increases the accuracy of out-of-sample forecasts relative to component models in three applied examples: predicting the occurrence of insurgencies around the Pacific Rim, forecasting vote shares in U.S. presidential elections, and predicting the votes of U.S. Supreme Court Justices.
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Tian, Simiao, Laurence Mioche, Jean-Baptiste Denis, and Béatrice Morio. "A multivariate model for predicting segmental body composition." British Journal of Nutrition 110, no. 12 (2013): 2260–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0007114513001803.
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The aims of the present study were to propose a multivariate model for predicting simultaneously body, trunk and appendicular fat and lean masses from easily measured variables and to compare its predictive capacity with that of the available univariate models that predict body fat percentage (BF%). The dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) dataset (52 % men and 48 % women) with White, Black and Hispanic ethnicities (1999–2004, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey) was randomly divided into three sub-datasets: a training dataset (TRD), a test dataset (TED); a validation dataset (VAD), comprising 3835, 1917 and 1917 subjects. For each sex, several multivariate prediction models were fitted from the TRD using age, weight, height and possibly waist circumference. The most accurate model was selected from the TED and then applied to the VAD and a French DXA dataset (French DB) (526 men and 529 women) to assess the prediction accuracy in comparison with that of five published univariate models, for which adjusted formulas were re-estimated using the TRD. Waist circumference was found to improve the prediction accuracy, especially in men. For BF%, the standard error of prediction (SEP) values were 3·26 (3·75) % for men and 3·47 (3·95) % for women in the VAD (French DB), as good as those of the adjusted univariate models. Moreover, the SEP values for the prediction of body and appendicular lean masses ranged from 1·39 to 2·75 kg for both the sexes. The prediction accuracy was best for age < 65 years, BMI < 30 kg/m2and the Hispanic ethnicity. The application of our multivariate model to large populations could be useful to address various public health issues.
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Ishii, Hokuto. "Modeling and Predictability of Exchange Rate Changes by the Extended Relative Nelson–Siegel Class of Models." International Journal of Financial Studies 6, no. 3 (2018): 68. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijfs6030068.
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This paper investigates the predictability of exchange rate changes by extracting the factors from the three-, four-, and five-factor model of the relative Nelson–Siegel class. Our empirical analysis shows that the relative spread factors are important for predicting future exchange rate changes, and our extended model improves the model fitting statistically. The regression model based on the three-factor relative Nelson–Siegel model is the superior model of the extended models for three-month-ahead out-of-sample predictions, and the prediction accuracy is statistically significant from the perspective of the Clark and West statistic. For 6- and 12-month-ahead predictions, although the five-factor model is superior to the other models, the prediction accuracy is not statistically significant.
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Li, Hongmei, Tatiana Ilyina, Tammas Loughran, Aaron Spring, and Julia Pongratz. "Reconstructions and predictions of the global carbon budget with an emission-driven Earth system model." Earth System Dynamics 14, no. 1 (2023): 101–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-101-2023.
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Abstract. The global carbon budget (GCB) – including fluxes of CO2 between the atmosphere, land, and ocean and its atmospheric growth rate – show large interannual to decadal variations. Reconstructing and predicting the variable GCB is essential for tracing the fate of carbon and understanding the global carbon cycle in a changing climate. We use a novel approach to reconstruct and predict the variations in GCB in the next few years based on our decadal prediction system enhanced with an interactive carbon cycle. By assimilating physical atmospheric and oceanic data products into the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), we are able to reproduce the annual mean historical GCB variations from 1970–2018, with high correlations of 0.75, 0.75, and 0.97 for atmospheric CO2 growth, air–land CO2 fluxes, and air–sea CO2 fluxes, respectively, relative to the assessments from the Global Carbon Project (GCP). Such a fully coupled decadal prediction system, with an interactive carbon cycle, enables the representation of the GCB within a closed Earth system and therefore provides an additional line of evidence for the ongoing assessments of the anthropogenic GCB. Retrospective predictions initialized from the simulation in which physical atmospheric and oceanic data products are assimilated show high confidence in predicting the following year's GCB. The predictive skill is up to 5 years for the air–sea CO2 fluxes, and 2 years for the air–land CO2 fluxes and atmospheric carbon growth rate. This is the first study investigating the GCB variations and predictions with an emission-driven prediction system. Such a system also enables the reconstruction of the past and prediction of the evolution of near-future atmospheric CO2 concentration changes. The Earth system predictions in this study provide valuable inputs for understanding the global carbon cycle and informing climate-relevant policy.
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Kumar, Pavitra, Sai Hin Lai, Jee Khai Wong, et al. "Review of Nitrogen Compounds Prediction in Water Bodies Using Artificial Neural Networks and Other Models." Sustainability 12, no. 11 (2020): 4359. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12114359.
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The prediction of nitrogen not only assists in monitoring the nitrogen concentration in streams but also helps in optimizing the usage of fertilizers in agricultural fields. A precise prediction model guarantees the delivering of better-quality water for human use, as the operations of various water treatment plants depend on the concentration of nitrogen in streams. Considering the stochastic nature and the various hydrological variables upon which nitrogen concentration depends, a predictive model should be efficient enough to account for all the complexities of nature in the prediction of nitrogen concentration. For two decades, artificial neural networks (ANNs) and other models (such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, hybrid model, etc.), used for predicting different complex hydrological parameters, have proved efficient and accurate up to a certain extent. In this review paper, such prediction models, created for predicting nitrogen concentration, are critically analyzed, comparing their accuracy and input variables. Moreover, future research works aiming to predict nitrogen using advanced techniques and more reliable and appropriate input variables are also discussed.
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Lee, Chanjung, Brian Jo, Hyunki Woo, Yoori Im, Rae Woong Park, and ChulHyoung Park. "Chronic Disease Prediction Using the Common Data Model: Development Study." JMIR AI 1, no. 1 (2022): e41030. http://dx.doi.org/10.2196/41030.
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Background Chronic disease management is a major health issue worldwide. With the paradigm shift to preventive medicine, disease prediction modeling using machine learning is gaining importance for precise and accurate medical judgement. Objective This study aimed to develop high-performance prediction models for 4 chronic diseases using the common data model (CDM) and machine learning and to confirm the possibility for the extension of the proposed models. Methods In this study, 4 major chronic diseases—namely, diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and cardiovascular disease—were selected, and a model for predicting their occurrence within 10 years was developed. For model development, the Atlas analysis tool was used to define the chronic disease to be predicted, and data were extracted from the CDM according to the defined conditions. A model for predicting each disease was built with 4 algorithms verified in previous studies, and the performance was compared after applying a grid search. Results For the prediction of each disease, we applied 4 algorithms (logistic regression, gradient boosting, random forest, and extreme gradient boosting), and all models show greater than 80% accuracy. As compared to the optimized model’s performance, extreme gradient boosting presented the highest predictive performance for the 4 diseases (diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and cardiovascular disease) with 80% or greater and from 0.84 to 0.93 in area under the curve standards. Conclusions This study demonstrates the possibility for the preemptive management of chronic diseases by predicting the occurrence of chronic diseases using the CDM and machine learning. With these models, the risk of developing major chronic diseases within 10 years can be demonstrated by identifying health risk factors using our chronic disease prediction machine learning model developed with the real-world data–based CDM and National Health Insurance Corporation examination data that individuals can easily obtain.
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Koolhof, Iain S., Simon M. Firestone, Silvana Bettiol, et al. "Optimising predictive modelling of Ross River virus using meteorological variables." PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 15, no. 3 (2021): e0009252. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009252.
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Background Statistical models are regularly used in the forecasting and surveillance of infectious diseases to guide public health. Variable selection assists in determining factors associated with disease transmission, however, often overlooked in this process is the evaluation and suitability of the statistical model used in forecasting disease transmission and outbreaks. Here we aim to evaluate several modelling methods to optimise predictive modelling of Ross River virus (RRV) disease notifications and outbreaks in epidemiological important regions of Victoria and Western Australia. Methodology/Principal findings We developed several statistical methods using meteorological and RRV surveillance data from July 2000 until June 2018 in Victoria and from July 1991 until June 2018 in Western Australia. Models were developed for 11 Local Government Areas (LGAs) in Victoria and seven LGAs in Western Australia. We found generalised additive models and generalised boosted regression models, and generalised additive models and negative binomial models to be the best fit models when predicting RRV outbreaks and notifications, respectively. No association was found with a model’s ability to predict RRV notifications in LGAs with greater RRV activity, or for outbreak predictions to have a higher accuracy in LGAs with greater RRV notifications. Moreover, we assessed the use of factor analysis to generate independent variables used in predictive modelling. In the majority of LGAs, this method did not result in better model predictive performance. Conclusions/Significance We demonstrate that models which are developed and used for predicting disease notifications may not be suitable for predicting disease outbreaks, or vice versa. Furthermore, poor predictive performance in modelling disease transmissions may be the result of inappropriate model selection methods. Our findings provide approaches and methods to facilitate the selection of the best fit statistical model for predicting mosquito-borne disease notifications and outbreaks used for disease surveillance.
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Lin, Chia-Ying, Yi-Ting Yen, Li-Ting Huang, et al. "An MRI-Based Clinical-Perfusion Model Predicts Pathological Subtypes of Prevascular Mediastinal Tumors." Diagnostics 12, no. 4 (2022): 889. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/diagnostics12040889.
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This study aimed to build machine learning prediction models for predicting pathological subtypes of prevascular mediastinal tumors (PMTs). The candidate predictors were clinical variables and dynamic contrast–enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI)–derived perfusion parameters. The clinical data and preoperative DCE–MRI images of 62 PMT patients, including 17 patients with lymphoma, 31 with thymoma, and 14 with thymic carcinoma, were retrospectively analyzed. Six perfusion parameters were calculated as candidate predictors. Univariate receiver-operating-characteristic curve analysis was performed to evaluate the performance of the prediction models. A predictive model was built based on multi-class classification, which detected lymphoma, thymoma, and thymic carcinoma with sensitivity of 52.9%, 74.2%, and 92.8%, respectively. In addition, two predictive models were built based on binary classification for distinguishing Hodgkin from non-Hodgkin lymphoma and for distinguishing invasive from noninvasive thymoma, with sensitivity of 75% and 71.4%, respectively. In addition to two perfusion parameters (efflux rate constant from tissue extravascular extracellular space into the blood plasma, and extravascular extracellular space volume per unit volume of tissue), age and tumor volume were also essential parameters for predicting PMT subtypes. In conclusion, our machine learning–based predictive model, constructed with clinical data and perfusion parameters, may represent a useful tool for differential diagnosis of PMT subtypes.
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Chien, Wen T., and W. C. Hung. "Investigation on the Predictive Model for Burr in Laser Cutting Titanium Alloy." Materials Science Forum 526 (October 2006): 133–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/msf.526.133.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The purpose of this study is to develop two predictive models for burr height in cutting titanium alloy plates by using Nd:YAG laser. Firstly, Taguchi method has been used to arrange the experimental scheme and analyze the results via analysis of mean . The important laser cutting parameters affecting burr height can be found. It shows that the pressure of assistant gas, the focusing position and the pulsed frequency are the most important cutting parameters in order. Then they have been chosen as the input variables for response surface methodology and used to construct a mathematical equation for predicting burr height. Secondly, the laser cutting parameters and experimental results obtained from conducting the schematic arrangement using Taguchi method and response surface methodology have been treated as training patterns and recalling patterns for the back-propagation neural network. As a result, a predictive model for burr height prediction in laser cutting titanium alloy has been established. To verify the accuracy of above two prediction models, there are 9 sets of experiment have been performed. It shows that the average error for predicting burr height by the mathematical equation derived from response surface methodology is 5.52% and by the predictive model established by back-propagation neural network is 4.51%, respectively. Obviously, both predictive models are good enough for the relational research and practical applications. It can be concluded that the procedure used in this research and the obtaining predictive models can be used practically in correlate industry.
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Behnoush, B., E. Bazmi, SH Nazari, S. Khodakarim, MA Looha, and H. Soori. "Machine learning algorithms to predict seizure due to acute tramadol poisoning." Human & Experimental Toxicology 40, no. 8 (2021): 1225–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0960327121991910.
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Introduction: This study was designed to develop and evaluate machine learning algorithms for predicting seizure due to acute tramadol poisoning, identifying high-risk patients and facilitating appropriate clinical decision-making. Methods: Several characteristics of acute tramadol poisoning cases were collected in the Emergency Department (ED) (2013–2019). After selecting important variables in random forest method, prediction models were developed using the Support Vector Machine (SVM), Naïve Bayes (NB), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and K-Nearest Neighbor (K-NN) algorithms. Area Under the Curve (AUC) and other diagnostic criteria were used to assess performance of models. Results: In 909 patients, 544 (59.8%) experienced seizures. The important predictors of seizure were sex, pulse rate, arterial blood oxygen pressure, blood bicarbonate level and pH. SVM (AUC = 0.68), NB (AUC = 0.71) and ANN (AUC = 0.70) models outperformed k-NN model (AUC = 0.58). NB model had a higher sensitivity and negative predictive value and k-NN model had higher specificity and positive predictive values than other models. Conclusion: A perfect prediction model may help improve clinicians’ decision-making and clinical care at EDs in hospitals and medical settings. SVM, ANN and NB models had no significant differences in the performance and accuracy; however, validated logistic regression (LR) was the superior model for predicting seizure due to acute tramadol poisoning.
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Soewono, Eddy Bambang, Maisevli Harika, Cahya Ramadhan, and Muhammad Reyhan Soeharto. "Model ARIMA Terbaik Prediksi Latitude dan Longitude Kegiatan Kapal Imigran Ilegal." JURNAL MEDIA INFORMATIKA BUDIDARMA 5, no. 4 (2021): 1729. http://dx.doi.org/10.30865/mib.v5i4.3301.
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The migration of a person to another country without following the law is illegal immigration. Many problems are caused by this activity, ranging from population problems to increased crime. Predicting the emergence of ships carrying illegal immigrants can assist border patrols in planning patrols to planning defense equipment. Time series forecasting to predict the latitude and longitude of boats carrying illegal immigrants is the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The case studies for this research are the Straits of Malacca and the Riau Islands. The prediction range is from one to four weeks to find the model with the smallest error. The ARIMA model for one-week prediction distance succeeded in obtaining the smallest RMSE. However, the smallest RMSE result (0.28730) was obtained for a four-week prediction distance with ARIMA model parameters (4,0,2) for longitude prediction. Meanwhile, the prediction of latitude. The best model is ARIMA (4,0,1), with an RMSE of 0.11457. For latitude and longitude predictions in the Riau Islands, the best models are ARIMA (3,0,0) with RMSE of 0.009074 and ARIMA (2,0,0) with RMSE 0.045815. Based on this study, the ARIMA model is suitable for predicting latitude and longitude data with a short prediction distance (one week)
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Rao, Cong Jun. "Optimal Model of Predicting the School Effectiveness of Universities." Applied Mechanics and Materials 423-426 (September 2013): 2926–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.423-426.2926.
Texte intégralRésumé :
The school effectiveness of a university is directly related to the implementation of national talent cultivation, school functions and educational goals. In this paper, aiming at the problem of predicting the school effectiveness of a university, the deficiency of traditional prediction model is analyzed, and a prediction model of predicting the school effectiveness of a university is established based on grey prediction theory. The model is applied in predicting the school effectiveness of Huanggang Normal University combined with the relative data in recent years, and a satisfactory forecasting result is achieved.