Articles de revues : « Prediction theory Graphic methods »

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Klodāne, Aļona, Anda Zvaigzne, Karlis Poznakovs et Andris Pelšs. « Theoretical Aspects of Modern Qualitative Methods for Crisis Management ». Latgale National Economy Research 1, n^o 11 (15 octobre 2019) : 39. http://dx.doi.org/10.17770/lner2019vol1.11.4366.

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Scientists agree on necessity to predict and timely detect a company crisis that is an integral part of business nowadays. The early identification of a company financial failure due to rapidly changing social, economic and environmental conditions is a topic of growing importance. The sooner a potential financial failure can be identified, the more effective and efficient the anti-crisis measures could be implemented. If a company financial failure could be predicted accurately, it might be possible for the business to be restructured, thus avoiding the failure. This would benefit the owners, shareholders, employees, creditors, and others interested alike. The modern economic literature provides varied crisis diagnosis methods, mostly based on an analysis of key financial ratios. Less attention is paid to qualitative methods. Therefore, the present research aims to examine modern qualitative methods for company crisis diagnosis (prediction) in crisis management theory. The research used the theoretical findings of foreign scientists and Internet resources. The research employed the following methods: analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, the monographic method, document analysis and the graphic method. The paper provides definitions of main terms related to company failure prediction and a description of general qualitative models of company financial failure (bankruptcy) prediction.

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Et. al., R. Divya Mounika,. « A Benchmarking application on Workload and Performance forecasting of micro services ». Turkish Journal of Computer and Mathematics Education (TURCOMAT) 12, n^o 2 (10 avril 2021) : 3232–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.17762/turcomat.v12i2.2381.

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Micro services are increasingly understood as the ideal architectural framework for building large cloud applications within and beyond organizational boundaries. These micro services architectures scale up the application, but are expensive to work on, so pay attention to workflow planning and workflow planning. However, this issue is not very clear. In this work, we are developing independent micro services workflows suitable for modeling and prediction methods and designing three-step game models for based applications. Solved the problem of designing micro services based applications to reduce end-to-end delays under user-specific limitations (MAWS-BC) and recommended micro services routing algorithms. The design process and estimation methods are improved and adequate. The experimental results produced by a well-known micro service bank cover a wide variety of statistical analyzes and the production utility of graphic design is shown by a large comparison copy compared to current algorithms.

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Ross, Gordon. « Airlines, Mayonnaise, and Justice : Reflections on the Theory and Practice of Legal Design and Technology ». Design Issues 36, n^o 3 (juin 2020) : 31–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/desi_a_00602.

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Design theory and practice are increasingly prevalent in legal and justice systems, at times reframing the relationship between the law and the world it seeks to make just. This article presents my professional experiences introducing design theory, methods, and mindsets into legal and government contexts, highlighting challenges and tensions across various legal design projects. Challenges include the justice sector's struggles dealing with complexity, the unfamiliar logics of design and abductive reasoning, and the legacy of positivist and instrumentalist philosophies. As a response, I propose a legal design that incorporates phronesis and re-orients around anticipation, rather than prediction.

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Syshchuk, Andrii, et Iryna Panasiuk. « HISTORY AND PRACTICE OF TECHNICAL METHODS OF THE INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY MARKET ». Economic journal of Lesia Ukrainka Eastern European National University 1, n^o 21 (30 mars 2020) : 12–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.29038/2411-4014-2020-01-12-21.

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Introduction. Technical analysis is an assessment of the behavior of the international currency market over a period of time. Due to the unpredictability of the dynamics of the international currency market and the possibility of losses from the conducted transactions, the study of technical means becomes of particular importance and relevance. It is the comparative analysis that identifies the advantages and disadvantages of each of the methods in order to further formulate the most profitable trading strategy. The purpose of the article is a comparative analysis of the technical analysis methods used by analysts in today's international currency market; comparing the selected instruments of each method and determining the most effective ones. Results. Within the framework of this study three main methods of technical analysis of the international currency market were considered: graphic, method of mathematical approximation and theory of economic cycles. The individual instruments of each of the methods, such as «Japanese candlestick», simple moving average, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD), MACD histogram, Elliott waves, Fibonacci retracement levels are reviewed. A comparative analysis of the selected instruments is carried out on the basis of research of the specificity of each of them. Examples of graphs, indicators and histograms are given. It is identified that the main differences are the complexity of use (ie the use of mathematical computing and computer technology) and the type of strategy (short or long term). Common features of methods of technical analysis of the currency market are: the purpose of the analysis, the object of analysis and the influence of the factor «psychology of people». Conclusions. It is revealed that one can obtain the most accurate results in predicting the dynamics of currency quotations only by combining several methods simultaneously. Knowing the strengths and weaknesses of different technical analysis tools, you can use them to validate each other's signals. As a result of such tactics, the analyst will get more accurate indicators that will bring him a profit. The prospect of the research is to find the best strategic schemes using a wide range of technical tools for international currency market analysis.

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Kostin, M. O., A. M. Mukha, O. H. Sheikina et O. Y. Kurylenko. « Determination of Energy and Electric Capacity of On-Board Supercapaci-tor Regenerative Energy Storage ». Science and Transport Progress. Bulletin of Dnipropetrovsk National University of Railway Transport, n^o 2(92) (15 avril 2021) : 29–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.15802/stp2021/237500.

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Purpose. Development of a method for determining the main functional parameters of on-board supercapacitor recuperative energy storage based on the asymptotic theory of extreme statistics by Gumbel, taking into account stochastic nature of changes in recuperated voltage and current. Methodology. To achieve this purpose, methods, devices and computer systems for temporary registration of recuperated voltages and currents on operating electric locomotives, methods of the theory of random processes and methods of probabilistic and statistical processing of registrograms of voltages and currents were used. Findings. A computational and experimental method for estimating recuperative energy has been proposed and practically applied. A probabilistic method has been developed for determining the energy and electric capacity of on-board supercapacitor recuperative energy storage units. Numerical probabilistic and statistical calculations of the energy and electric capacity of on-board storage for the VL8 and VL11M6 electric locomotives during their operation in the sections of Prydniprovska railway have been carried out. It was found that the energy and electric capacity of on-board storage devices are distributed according to an exponential law with a clear prevalence of their minimum values and in compliance with direct proportionality between them. Originality. For the first time, an autonomous phase of recuperative braking mode of an electric rolling stock has been developed, which makes it possible to significantly reduce the mass and dimension of a supercapacitor storage. The asymptotic theory of extreme statistics by Gumbel was adapted to the method for calculating energy and electric capacity of an on-board storage device, which made it possible to take into account the influence of stochastic nature of changes in the recuperated voltage and current. The probabilistic influence regularities of the change nature in the recuperation energy on the capacity of on-board storage in the phase of recuperative braking have been established. Further development was obtained by a computational-experimental method for assessing the recuperative energy, based on monitoring and using the time dependences of voltage and current obtained in real modes of recuperative braking. For the first time in electric traction systems, it was proposed to carry out the transition from the recuperative braking mode to the recuperative regeneration mode. Practical value. The developed method and technique based on it make it possible to evaluate functional parameters of on-board storage device of all types of electric rolling stock, considering stochastic nature of recuperated voltages and currents. Numerical-graphic dependences of the energy intensity and capacity of the on-board storage are recommended for predicting and evaluating these parameters for various modes of recuperative braking. Since the task of designing an on-board storage unit (in terms of mass and dimensions) is ambiguous, therefore, in each specific case of the type of electric locomotive and recuperation modes, it must be solved individually, taking into account the probability of the corresponding capacitance values.

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Fralenko, Vitaly, Vyacheslav Khachumov et Mikhail Khachumov. « Correlation analysis and prediction of personality traits using graphic data collections ». SHS Web of Conferences 72 (2019) : 01012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/20197201012.

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The questions of building mechanisms for identifying patterns and building modern tools for analyzing data from social networks are considered. It is proposed to apply modern methods of web pages’ automatic analysis, testing hypotheses about the presence of correlation links, automatic classification of graphic information using the apparatus of artificial neural networks. The presence of correlation between personality traits of the "Big Five" is investigated. Strong fluctuations in the values of personality traits were revealed depending on various types for groups of people. The problem of predicting the personality traits of the Internet user by the images posted by him is investigated, artificial neural networks are used as a tool. Two series of experiments were carried out, in the first series, a convolutional neural network, trained on the images and results of the NEO-FFI questionnaire, was used to predict personality traits. The sequential use of convolution and subsampling in the convolution network leads to the so-called increase in the level of features: if the first layer extracts local features from the image, then subsequent layers extract common features that are called high-order features. In the second series of experiments, this type of artificial neural network was used to extract high-level features, which were then used to train a direct distribution network that performs forecasting. Thus, the more layers are used, the more features associated with personality traits are extracted from the images. For processing arrays of graphic information, the “Microsoft Cognitive Toolkit library” and the Nvidia Geforce GTX 1080 Ti graphics accelerator were used. The results of the experiments revealed those personality traits that are most correlated with the images posted by Internet users.

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Харах, Matvey Kharakh, Козлова, Irina Kozlova, Славин, Boris Slavin, Славин, R. Slavin, Гусева et T. Guseva. « Parameterization Theory Elements and Parametric Drawings in "KOMPAS-Graphic" ». Geometry & ; Graphics 5, n^o 1 (17 avril 2017) : 64–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/25125.

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Some elements of geometric objects’ parameterization theory are considered in this paper. An analysis of this theory development by leading Soviet scientists has been presented. It is known that figure’s parameters are determined by adding shape parameters with location parameters. In the drawing these parameters are expressed as dimensions. Relations between figures are determined or by their mutual affiliation, or by perpendicularity, or by their touch. These ratios allow reduce dimensions number on a drawing. The link of the parameterization theory with creation of parametric drawings has been demonstrated in the considering work. Definitions for such concepts as parameter and parametric drawing have been given. A various geometric figures’ parameters calculation principle has been considered. The order of assignment in parametric form of different geometrical objects (point, straight line), as well as any figure’s position in space has been presented. Assignments of geometrical conditions for membership, parallelism, perpendicularity, contact by parameters have been considered. A detailed description for parametric drawing in "KOMPAS-Graphic" program has been presented. Advantages and features related to carrying out of parametric fragments (with geometric and dimensional dependencies) and drawings in this program for various industries have been laid in detail. Some features and approaches in carrying out parametric drawings and fragments, which worthwhile to apply for different modifications of items when needed to creat group drawings, have been proposed for consideration. Traditional methods for creation of the group drawings using CAD systems effectively increase intellectual work’s performance. The CAD systems capabilities use will enable designers to implement various ways and possibilities comprehensively for creation and presentation of graphic information.

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Nørgaard, L., A. Saudland, J. Wagner, J. P. Nielsen, L. Munck et S. B. Engelsen. « Interval Partial Least-Squares Regression (iPLS) : A Comparative Chemometric Study with an Example from Near-Infrared Spectroscopy ». Applied Spectroscopy 54, n^o 3 (mars 2000) : 413–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1366/0003702001949500.

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A new graphically oriented local modeling procedure called interval partial least-squares ( iPLS) is presented for use on spectral data. The iPLS method is compared to full-spectrum partial least-squares and the variable selection methods principal variables (PV), forward stepwise selection (FSS), and recursively weighted regression (RWR). The methods are tested on a near-infrared (NIR) spectral data set recorded on 60 beer samples correlated to original extract concentration. The error of the full-spectrum correlation model between NIR and original extract concentration was reduced by a factor of 4 with the use of iPLS ( r = 0.998, and root mean square error of prediction equal to 0.17% plato), and the graphic output contributed to the interpretation of the chemical system under observation. The other methods tested gave a comparable reduction in the prediction error but suffered from the interpretation advantage of the graphic interface. The intervals chosen by iPLS cover both the variables found by FSS and all possible combinations as well as the variables found by PV and RWR, and iPLS is still able to utilize the first-order advantage.

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Evans, Susan M., Susan L. Palmiter et Jay Elkerton. « The Edge System : Ergonomic Design Using Graphic Evaluation ». Proceedings of the Human Factors Society Annual Meeting 32, n^o 11 (octobre 1988) : 612–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1518/107118188786762441.

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EDGE is a computer-based ergonomic workspace design system which integrates several models of operator performance with a common graphic interface. In addition to serving as a practical design system, it also serves as a research tool for understanding the ergonomic design process in industry. System users include trained ergonomists and engineers responsible for manual workspace design. The design system centers around a core vocabulary of task-related terms. A common input format, modeled after the traditional “work methods table” addresses the input requirements of the varied human performance models. Output from the performance models is displayed on multiple screens in varying levels of detail. Among the measures of physical stress currently integrated into the system are models of biomechanical strength, NIOSH lifting limits, metabolic energy expenditure, and elemental time prediction.

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Saltini, L. E., et A. Zadra. « Algebra of Nonlocal Charges in Supersymmetric Nonlinear Sigma Models ». International Journal of Modern Physics A 12, n^o 02 (20 janvier 1997) : 419–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0217751x97000487.

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We propose a graphic method to derive the classical algebra (Dirac brackets) of nonlocal conserved charges in the two-dimensional supersymmetric nonlinear O(N) sigma model. As in the purely bosonic theory we find a cubic Yangian algebra. We also consider the extension of graphic methods to other integrable theories.

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Nadakuditi, Raj R. « Random matrix theory and performance prediction of subspace methods ». Journal of the Acoustical Society of America 132, n^o 3 (septembre 2012) : 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1121/1.4755432.

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Atieno Wagoro, Miriam Carole, William Sudi Galo, Chris Podo Rakuom, Joseph Oderah Mirereh et Christine Musee. « Development of a graphic blood glucose monitoring chart for glycaemic control in diabetes mellitus : a modified Delphi method study ». Journal of Research in Nursing 25, n^o 4 (23 décembre 2019) : 323–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1744987119836135.

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Background In Kenya 30% of patients admitted with ketoacidosis due to hyperglycaemia die within 48 hours of hospitalisation. Effective monitoring of blood glucose levels is critical for glycaemic control and prevention of mortality. Kenya public hospitals lack a graphic blood glucose monitoring tool. Aims To develop a graphic blood glucose monitoring tool. Methods Modified Delphi technique was used for consensus-building among nurses on the features of an appropriate blood glucose monitoring tool. A total of 150 nurses selected by purposive sampling participated in the study. Data were collected for 24 months through sequential interactive rounds and workshops using a questionnaire. At every round, consensus was reached if ≥75% of the nurses agreed or disagreed on a feature. Results A graphic blood glucose monitoring chart was developed with the following features: time on the x-axis, blood glucose values on the y-axis, colour codes corresponding to blood glucose levels, existing conditions during blood glucose measurement. Significance The chart may improve glycaemic control while stimulating further research on its effectiveness. Conclusion Modified Delphi method is useful for successive collation of judgments of nurse experts in the development of a graphic blood glucose monitoring chart.

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Farràs, Pau, Francesc Teixidor et Vicenç Branchadell. « Prediction of pKaValues ofnido-Carboranes by Density Functional Theory Methods ». Inorganic Chemistry 45, n^o 19 (septembre 2006) : 7947–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/ic060908b.

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Jiang, Zhe. « A Survey on Spatial Prediction Methods ». IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering 31, n^o 9 (1 septembre 2019) : 1645–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/tkde.2018.2866809.

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Wang, Zhi Yong. « Graphic Image Processing Technology in the Application of the Film and Television Creation ». Advanced Materials Research 1044-1045 (octobre 2014) : 1169–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.1044-1045.1169.

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In this paper, using the procedure of analysis and synthesis, comparison and classification methods and methods of system theory, graphic image processing technology was studied and its comprehensive application in the film and television, especially the combination of computer animation and film and television. Also on current popular virtual reality technology is dealt with in this paper.

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Basiri, Mohammad Ehsan, Ahmad Reza Naghsh-Nilchi et Nasser Ghasem-Aghaee. « Sentiment Prediction Based on Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence ». Mathematical Problems in Engineering 2014 (2014) : 1–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/361201.

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Sentiment prediction techniques are often used to assign numerical scores to free-text format reviews written by people in online review websites. In order to exploit the fine-grained structural information of textual content, a review may be considered as a collection of sentences, each with its own sentiment orientation and score. In this manner, a score aggregation method is needed to combine sentence-level scores into an overall review rating. While recent work has concentrated on designing effective sentence-level prediction methods, there remains the problem of finding efficient algorithms for score aggregation. In this study, we investigate different aggregation methods, as well as the cases in which they perform poorly. According to the analysis of existing methods, we propose a new score aggregation method based on theDempster-Shafer theory of evidence. In the proposed method, we first detect the polarity of reviews using a machine learning approach and then, consider sentence scores as evidence for the overall review rating. The results from two public social web datasets show the higher performance of our method in comparison with existing score aggregation methods and state-of-the-art machine learning approaches.

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Yu, Haizhu, Dingjia Liu, Zhimin Dang, Dongrui Wang et Yao Fu. « Accurate Prediction of AuP Bond Strengths by Density Functional Theory Methods ». Chinese Journal of Chemistry 31, n^o 2 (30 octobre 2012) : 200–208. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/cjoc.201200753.

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Sun, Wen Lei, Yi Fang Zhong et Yan Hua Huang. « Hybrid CAD Modeling Theory and Method in Reverse Engineering ». Advanced Materials Research 33-37 (mars 2008) : 745–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.33-37.745.

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RE is the generic name of a series of technical methods that convert physical parts into engineering concepts and CAD model. It has been an important branch of modern design methodology. With the development of computer and graphic design, RE has already no longer met the simple imitation products, but product innovation based on physical parts. In order to redesign the CAD model constructed by RE method and then support product innovation, hybrid CAD modeling method and some related key techniques are studied in this paper. Combining conventional design and RE, Hybrid CAD modeling method extracts features, constraints, and design intent from measured data for parametric redesign and eventually completes CAD model.

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Nurullaeli, Nurullaeli. « Alat Bantu Prediksi Kecepatan pada Gerak Lurus Berubah Beraturan Menggunakan Metode Interpolasi Berdimensi Satu ». Navigation Physics : Journal of Physics Education 2, n^o 2 (3 décembre 2020) : 47–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.30998/npjpe.v2i2.473.

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The purpose of this study is to create a speed prediction tool in a uniformly accelerated linear motion using a single-dimensional interpolation method consisting of linear, cubic, cubic spline, and nearest neighbor interpolation methods. This tool is packaged in the form of Graphic User Interface (GUI) using Matlab programming language. This tool can be used as a medium of the analysis of the object speed experiencing a uniformly accelerated linear motion and a combination of several uniformly accelerated linear motions. Speed prediction results using linear, cubic, and cubic spline interpolation methods do not differ much from the results of analytical calculations, while speed prediction results using nearest neighbor interpolation method are less in line with the results of analytical calculations because nearest neighbor interpolation method will generate constant values around the data point. This tool can also be used as a learning medium to make it easier for students to learn the concept of uniformly accelerated linear motion in order to reduce the misconceptions in the material.

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Ovchinnikova, Raisa Yu. « GRAPHIC DESIGN PROCESS : CONTEXT OF IMPLEMENTATION ». Vestnik Tomskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Kul'turologiya i iskusstvovedenie, n^o 39 (2020) : 185–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.17223/22220836/39/17.

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The article shows that the study of design process as a special activity in graphic design is an art history problem and requires special research methods. It is scientific methodology that makes it pos-sible to achieve reliability in art history knowledge. Attention is drawn to the fact that since the 1960s the methodology of systems theory and activity theory has been a keynote for the development of the design process knowledge in various schools of graphic design. This methodology meets academic criteria and has not lost its value in our days. Based on the principles of this methodology the article analyzes different types of the graphic design process. The objective processes associated with the use of computer technologies in design appear to be the norm and the paradigm of functioning in modern graphic design. Thus, the idea of existence of numerous computer-aided design types is justified. The design objectives of diverse complexity serve here as criteria. On the basis of these objectives traditional, original, and innovative designs are out-lined and comparatively analyzed in the article. It is noted that computer technologies, first, act as an effective tool for the implementation of the forms envisioned by the designer. Second, a computer can be regarded as a creative partner, an agent. Computer technologies possess a unique set of properties and features that open up new opportunities for a creative practice in the field of graphic design. The boundaries of the design practice are changing, and new areas of collective creativity are being estab-lished. In this case the graphic design process is a process that involves efforts of many people. So, individual creativity of professional designers appears to be replaced by the collaboration of interdisci-plinary experts. It is also noted that the growth of computer-aided technologies is too fast for graphic designers to develop a theoretical understanding of them. It results in the duality of assessing the role of methodol-ogy and experience in the graphic design process. On the one hand, the use of design methodology improves efficiency of the design process in comparison with the approach based on experience. On the other hand, there occurs the “extraction” of methodology from the design practice. Research meth-ods of the graphic design process are created under the influence of not only intradisciplinary process-es but also with a view to the messages from other areas of academic knowledge. An example is the use of synergy as a special way of understanding empirical facts accumulated in various fields of aca-demic knowledge. Namely, computer-aided design reveals the non-linearity, a large variety of forms. Herewith, any calculations applied to a huge number of graphic elements change the visual result, creating a new version of the form. It is noted that the use of high-tech computer technologies is quite specific about training designers.

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Zhang, Li Ting, et Hao Zhang. « Application Analysis of Structure Deformation Monitoring Prediction Methods ». Advanced Materials Research 163-167 (décembre 2010) : 2674–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.163-167.2674.

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Nowadays structure construction and monitoring, hazard forecasting depends more and more on scientific prediction methods. This paper focus on prediction method, which based on GM(1,1) model of Gary Theory. With a set of dynamic monitoring data from one structure, we introduce the modeling method of old information model, new information model and equal dimension new information model. An analysis of these prediction models reliability is performed to compare these models. The result of these models can predict the structure settlement proved that a suitable prediction method could provide help to structure safety and reduce unnecessary lost.

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Negru, Radu, Liviu Marsavina, Hannelore Filipescu et Cristiana Caplescu. « Application of Two Methods for Notch Fatigue Life Prediction ». Key Engineering Materials 488-489 (septembre 2011) : 654–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/kem.488-489.654.

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The aim of this paper is the application of two methods for notch fatigue life assessment, methods which are based on finite element analysis: the theory of critical distances and the volumetric method. Firstly, un-notched and notched specimens (for three different geometries) were tested in tension under constant-amplitude loading. The use of theory of critical distances (TCD) to predict the notch fatigue life involves the determination of the material characteristic length L based on experimental results obtained for the un-notched and one type of notched specimens. For the others notched geometries, based on linear-elastic finite element analysis, the fatigue strength is predicted using the TCD. In order to apply the volumetric method, elastic-plastic stress field around notches are considered and notch strength reduction factor are determined. Finally, the predictions of the two methods were compared with experimental fatigue data for notched specimens.

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Kabakov, Vitaliy V., et Diego Felipe Arbeláez-Campillo. « Text and typological characteristics of the traditional humorous graphic novel ». LAPLAGE EM REVISTA 7, n^o 3 (21 août 2021) : 392–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.24115/s2446-62202021731314p.392-396.

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The object of the research is American English-language comics (modern and classic ones). The subject of the research is the text-typological characteristics of comics. When carrying out the research in this work, such research methods were used as theoretical ones: sequential-textual method of studying literature, articles and comics. The theoretical significance of the work performed is in the fact that the study contributes to the development of text-typological studies of texts that belong to different genres in particular, and in general - to cultural linguistics, research on text-types and text-typological characteristics in the aspect of studying the linguistics of the text, use of creolized texts, discourse theory.

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Zheng, Jiyu, Lingbo Zhang, Jiankun Gong et Wenkun Wang. « Feature Analysis and Comparison of Prediction Methods for Fire Accidents ». International Journal of Safety and Security Engineering 10, n^o 5 (30 novembre 2020) : 707–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.18280/ijsse.100516.

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Fire is one of the most common production safety accident. The trend of fire can be mastered by analyzing the historical data. This paper explores the features of recent fires in China, predicts fire by two methods, namely, grey theory, and grey Markov theory, and compares the prediction results of the two methods. The results show that: the number of fires in China increased greatly in 2013; Since 2014, the number of fires, as well as the number of deaths, the number of injured, and property loss induced by fires were declining. The maximum relative error of grey prediction was 5.8%, and that of grey Markov prediction was 5%; grey theory is less accurate in fire prediction than grey Markov prediction. According to the causes and features of fires, several preventive measures were put forward. The research results provide insights into the prevention of fires and protection of production safety.

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Wu, Jian Kang, Zhipei Huang, Zhiqiang Zhang, Wendong Xiao et Hong Jiang. « Quantitative Assessment of Autonomic Regulation of the Cardiac System ». Journal of Healthcare Engineering 2019 (21 avril 2019) : 1–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/4501502.

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Autonomic neural system (ANS) regulates the circulation to provide optimal perfusion of every organ in accordance with its metabolic needs, and the quantitative assessment of autonomic regulation is crucial for personalized medicine in cardiovascular diseases. In this paper, we propose the Dystatis to quantitatively evaluate autonomic regulation of the human cardiac system, based on homeostatis and probabilistic graphic model, where homeostatis explains ANS regulation while the probability graphic model systematically defines the regulation process for quantitative assessment. The indices and measurement methods for three well-designed scenarios are also illustrated to evaluate the proposed Dystatis: (1) heart rate variability (HRV), blood pressure variability (BPV), and respiration synchronization (Synch) in resting situation; (2) chronotropic competence indices (CCI) in graded exercise testing; and (3) baroreflex sensitivity (BRS), sympathetic nerve activity (SNA), and parasympathetic nerve activity (PNA) in orthostatic testing. The previous clinical results have shown that the proposed method and indices for autonomic cardiac system regulation have great potential in prediction, diagnosis, and rehabilitation of cardiovascular diseases, hypertension, and diabetes.

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Dong, Wenjie, Sifeng Liu, Zhigeng Fang, Yingsai Cao et Ye Ding. « A model based on hidden graphic evaluation and review technique network to evaluate reliability and lifetime of multi-state systems ». Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O : Journal of Risk and Reliability 233, n^o 3 (18 juillet 2018) : 369–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1748006x18788414.

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The essence of multi-state system performance degradation is a process of deteriorating state transition. On the basis of hidden Markov model and graphic evaluation and review technique network, this article proposes a new reliability assessment method called hidden graphic evaluation and review technique network model for multi-state system. Specifically, nodes in graphic evaluation and review technique network represent hidden states of a system at different deteriorating times, and they can be expanded through a series of observable sequences. Baum–Welch algorithm in hidden Markov model is introduced to train parameters and when logarithmic likelihood function of the output reaches convergent, we can estimate the most probable output state and obtain the state transition probability eventually. Suppose performance degradation amount between different nodes follows gamma distribution, a method of improved maximum likelihood function is introduced to estimate parameters. According to signal flow graph theory and Mason formula, equivalent transfer function from the initial node to any other nodes can be obtained, then expectation and variance of performance degradation amount can be presented. In the real case study, we compare the reliability assessment method proposed in this article with other two traditional methods, which show the rationality of hidden graphic evaluation and review technique network model.

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Zhou, Yi, Dingjia Liu, Yao Fu, Haizhu Yu et Jing Shi. « Accurate Prediction of IrH Bond Dissociation Enthalpies by Density Functional Theory Methods ». Chinese Journal of Chemistry 32, n^o 3 (mars 2014) : 269–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/cjoc.201400015.

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Alexander, Elitsa, Martin J. Eppler et Sabrina Bresciani. « Visual Replay Methodology : A Mixed Methods Approach for Group Discussion Analysis ». Journal of Mixed Methods Research 13, n^o 1 (19 août 2016) : 33–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1558689816664479.

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In this article, we propose an innovative mixed methods research (MMR) technique and discuss its theory and applications. The visual replay methodology (VRM) is a new graphic way to investigate the discourse patterns during software-aided small group discussions. A visually supported conversation is recorded through screen capturing and replayed to reconstruct how the discussion has unfolded. The VRM responds to the “integration challenge” that the MMR community is facing—by employing the power of visualization, data integration is leveraged to a new level, where visual synergy gains enable a “value-added” research outcome. By employing multigenre integration and a moderately pragmatic approach, the VRM reduces the researcher–subject power-relation gap and contributes to some long-standing MMR debates regarding reflexivity and participation.

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Kuzheleva, E. A., V. A. Fedyunina, V. A. Alexandrenko, M. Yu Kondratiev, V. D. Aptekar et A. A. Garganeeva. « Prediction of adverse cardiovascular events in the post-infarction period, taking into account treatment compliance ». Russian Medical Inquiry 4, n^o 7 (2020) : 431–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.32364/2587-6821-2020-4-7-431-436.

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Aim: to develop a graphic risk meter scale concerning major adverse cardiovascular events (MCVEs) during the 5-year post-infarction period, taking into account patients’ compliance to the treatment.Patients and Methods: the analyze was conducted on the data from a prospective five-year follow-up of patients (n=115) who experienced a myocardial infarction (MI) and were registered in the database of the Registry of Acute Myocardial Infarction (Tomsk). The following endpoints were analyzed: repeated MI, hospitalization for exacerbation of coronary heart disease, advanced chronic heart failure (CHF), and cardiac arrhythmias.Results: the study identified a set of factors that had a significant impact on the clinical course of the post-infarction period. CHF (diagnosed before the development of index MI) increased the chances of adverse course of post-infarction period in 9.5 times. The lack of achievement of systolic blood pressure target values increased the risk of cardiovascular complications in 5 times. The patients’ age of 75 years and older increased the possibility of an adverse postinfarction period course in 8.5 times. The predictor that favorably affected the post-infarction period course was an integral indicator equal to the product of the specific weight of vital drugs (in the general structure of prescriptions) and the treatment compliance degree. This indicator reduced the risk of MCVEs by 61% for each unit value, i.e. with the highest possible compliance to therapy that meets the recommendations; an adverse course risk of the post-infarction period decreased by 2.5 times.Conclusion: the results emphasize the importance of compliance with medical recommendations by patients who have experienced MI. The proposed graphic risk meter scale can be used to predict the development of adverse MCVEs during the 5-year post-infarction period. KEYWORDS: coronary heart disease, myocardial infarction, cardiovascular risk, treatment compliance, Morisky-Green test, disease prognosis.FOR CITATION: Kuzheleva E.A., Fedyunina V.A., Alexandrenko V.A. et al. Prediction of adverse cardiovascular events in the post-infarction period, taking into account treatment compliance. Russian Medical Inquiry. 2020;4(7):431–436. DOI: 10.32364/2587-6821-2020-4-7-431-436.

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Jin, Sheng Ji, Da Sheng Zhang, Zhe Shu et Yun Zhao. « Grey Model Theory Used in Prediction of Subgrade Settlement ». Applied Mechanics and Materials 105-107 (septembre 2011) : 1576–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.105-107.1576.

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In order to study the rule of highway subgrade settlement, both on-site experiments and theoretical analysis methods were used to analysis high fill embankment settlement. Gray model theory can be effectively forecasted the embankment of the different stages and the final settlement. According to the measured data of deposition tests, the comparative analysis of predicted results was carried out and some conclusions were drawn: 1) It is feasible that gray model theory is used to predict the settlement of the subgrade; 2) gray theory predictions adapt to these situations that similar information is less known, uncertainties and some rock deformation issues; 3)gray prediction accuracy is higher. The prediction model of GM established (1, 1) is reliable.

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Aoyagi, Takeshi. « High-throughput prediction of stress–strain curves of thermoplastic elastomer model block copolymers by combining hierarchical simulation and deep learning ». MRS Advances 6, n^o 2 (5 février 2021) : 32–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1557/s43580-021-00008-1.

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Abstract We achieved high-throughput prediction of the stress–strain (S–S) curves of thermoplastic elastomers by combining hierarchical simulation and deep learning. ABA triblock copolymer with a phase-separated structure was used as a thermoplastic elastomer model. The S–S curves of the ABA triblock copolymers were calculated from the hierarchical simulation of self-consistent field theory calculations and coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulations. Because such hierarchical simulations require considerable computational resources, we applied a deep learning technique to accelerate the prediction. Sets of phase-separated structures and the S–S curves obtained from the hierarchical simulation were used to train a 3D convolutional neural network. Using the trained network, we confirmed that the predicted S–S curves of the untrained structures accurately reproduced the simulation results. These results will enable us to design novel polymers and phase-separated structures with desired S–S curves by high-throughput screening of a wide variety of structures. Graphic abstract

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Bal, Jay, Yen Cheung et Hsu-Che Wu. « Entropy for Business Failure Prediction : An Improved Prediction Model for the Construction Industry ». Advances in Decision Sciences 2013 (31 décembre 2013) : 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/459751.

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This paper examines empirically the effectiveness of entropy measures derived from information theory combined with discriminant analysis in the prediction of construction business failure. Such failure in modern complex supply chains is an extremely disruptive force, and its likelihood is a key factor in the prequalification appraisal of contractors. The work described, using financial data from the Taiwanese construction industry, extends the classical methods by applying Shannon's information theory to improve their prediction ability and provides an alternative to newer artificial-intelligence-based approaches.

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Bucur, Amelia. « Modelling of the Quality Management of the Human Resource Training ». Scientific Bulletin 20, n^o 2 (1 décembre 2015) : 17–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/bsaft-2015-0004.

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Abstract It is known that for the scientific substantiation of quality management have been applied models that pertain to mathematical statistics, the probability theory, the information theory, fuzzy systems, graphic methods, time series, and algebraic and numerical methods. The models are designed to identify certain flaws and to prevent failures, but also to develop goals based on the implementation of the proposed solutions. The models are recommendations for the identification of opportunities to improve the quality management of human resource training and to make changes in the attitudes and actions performed by the management of organizations. This paper sets forth a new result that use the concept of global indicator.

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Fan, Kuo-Kuang, Shuh-Yeuan Deng, Chung-Ho Su et Fu-Yuan Cheng. « Theory of Variable Fuzzy Sets for Artificial Emotions Prediction ». Mathematical Problems in Engineering 2015 (2015) : 1–4. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/250506.

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Emotions have a very important impact on human’s beliefs, motivations, actions, and physical states. Emotions predicting and its application in intelligent system can improve the interaction between humans and machines. Current research in artificial emotion focuses on how to measure, calculate, or compute it. However, the transfer of emotion is often too complicated to present full emotion states and changes. This paper combines with emotional dimension and theory of variable fuzzy sets to present a predicting artificial emotion model and shows illustrated example of it. This study shows that any raw data from input can be computed with variable fuzzy set. It provides a mathematical method for representing emotion quantitative, gradual qualitative, and mutated qualitative change. This framework improves calculation methods and mechanisms, closer to real emotional changes.

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Molinaro, A. M., R. Simon et R. M. Pfeiffer. « Prediction error estimation : a comparison of resampling methods ». Bioinformatics 21, n^o 15 (19 mai 2005) : 3301–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/bioinformatics/bti499.

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Sutil, Nicolas Salazar. « Laban's Choreosophical Model : Movement Visualisation Analysis and the Graphic Media Approach to Dance Studies ». Dance Research 30, n^o 2 (novembre 2012) : 147–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.3366/drs.2012.0044.

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This paper explores the impact Rudolf Laban's graphic approach has had on movement analysis and an analytical approach to dance-movement based on an understanding of human motion as a collection of fixed points in a movement continuum. Central to this approach is the idea that movement can be captured graphically for its analysis via different techniques of graphic representation: including drawing, 3D modelling, graphs, diagrams and notation. The article also argues that graphic models play a key role in the development of Laban's theory of harmonic space. Based on a series of geometric and topological models Laban was able to develop a material method as part of his creative research on movement analysis. My claim is that Laban's graphic approach encourages the use of visual media and technologies of graphic inscription as inventive methods for the better understanding of movement, which is why Laban's thinking can be adequately reconceptualised using technologies like video and motion capture. As a unit of analysis, this article explores one of Laban's most fundamental and yet least known material models: the spheric form. I argue that this model presents us with a much broader understanding of Laban's movement analysis as a form of material thinking, and not only within the context of dance-training, but as part of a vision of the dance that is complete in its philosophical perspectives, and which Laban called choreosophy. This article finishes with a brief examination of C8's choreography ‘Solid Sense’ (performed in 2011), which in the author's opinion exemplifies, as creative research, some of the central preoccupations of Laban's choreosophical studies.

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Xiao, Zhi, Xianglei Yang, Ying Pang et Xin Dang. « The prediction for listed companies’ financial distress by using multiple prediction methods with rough set and Dempster–Shafer evidence theory ». Knowledge-Based Systems 26 (février 2012) : 196–206. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2011.08.001.

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Cooke, D. H. « On Prediction of Off-Design Multistage Turbine Pressures by Stodola’s Ellipse ». Journal of Engineering for Gas Turbines and Power 107, n^o 3 (1 juillet 1985) : 596–606. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/1.3239778.

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The variation of extraction pressures with flow to the following stage for high backpressure, multistage turbine designs is highly nonlinear in typical cogeneration applications where the turbine nozzles are not choked. Consequently, the linear method based on Constant Flow Coefficient, which is applicable for uncontrolled expansion with high vacuum exhaust, as is common in utility power cycles, cannot be used to predict extraction pressures at off-design loads. The paper presents schematic examples and brief descriptions of cogeneration designs, with background and theoretical derivation of a more generalized “nozzle analogy” which is applicable in these cases. This method is known as the Law of the Ellipse. It was originally developed experimentally by Stodola and published in English in 1927. The paper shows that the Constant Flow Coefficient method is really a special case of the more generalized Law of the Ellipse. Graphic interpretation of the Law of the Ellipse for controlled and uncontrolled expansions, and variations for sonic choking and reduced number of stages (including single stage) are presented. The derived relations are given in computer codable form, and methods of solution integral with overall heat balance iteration schemes are suggested, with successful practical experience. The pressures predicted by the relations compare favorably with manufacturers’ data on four high-backpressure, cogeneration cycle turbines and three large utility low-pressure ends.

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Bozzo, Enrico, Paolo Vidoni et Massimo Franceschet. « A parametric family of Massey-type methods : inference, prediction, and sensitivity ». Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports 16, n^o 3 (25 septembre 2020) : 255–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2019-0071.

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AbstractWe study the stability of a time-aware version of the popular Massey method, previously introduced by Franceschet, M., E. Bozzo, and P. Vidoni. 2017. “The Temporalized Massey’s Method.” Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports 13: 37–48, for rating teams in sport competitions. To this end, we embed the temporal Massey method in the theory of time-varying averaging algorithms, which are dynamic systems mainly used in control theory for multi-agent coordination. We also introduce a parametric family of Massey-type methods and show that the original and time-aware Massey versions are, in some sense, particular instances of it. Finally, we discuss the key features of this general family of rating procedures, focusing on inferential and predictive issues and on sensitivity to upsets and modifications of the schedule.

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Han, Xiao Juan, Xi Lin Zhang, Yue Yan Chen et Fang Yuan Meng. « Wind Power Prediction Model Based on the Combination of Gray Theory and Time Series Forecasting Methods ». Applied Mechanics and Materials 448-453 (octobre 2013) : 1721–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.448-453.1721.

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Accurate wind power predicting is helpful for the dispatch and safety operation of grid, so as to increase wind power penetration, Two representative prediction models, based on gray theory and time series forecasting method respectively, were selected, the farm measured data were input to the models and their own prediction results were obtained respectively. Finally, the prediction results of the combined model were compared with the two individual models, verifying the feasibility of the combined model to wind farm generation capacity forecast. It is concluded that the combined forecast model can predict more accurately than the individual forecast model.

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Bartzokas, A., J. Azzopardi, L. Bertotti, A. Buzzi, L. Cavaleri, D. Conte, S. Davolio et al. « The RISKMED project : philosophy, methods and products ». Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 10, n^o 7 (1 juillet 2010) : 1393–401. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-1393-2010.

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Abstract. This paper presents RISKMED, a project targeted to create an Early Warning System (EWS) in case of severe or extreme weather events in the central and eastern Mediterranean and specifically in southern Italy, northwestern Greece, Malta and Cyprus. As severe or extreme weather events are considered, cases when the values of some meteorological parameters (temperature, wind, precipitation) exceed certain thresholds, and/or a severe weather phenomenon (thunderstorm, snowfall) occurs. For an accurate weather forecast, selected meteorological models have been operated daily, based on a nesting strategy using two or three domains, providing detailed forecasts over the above mentioned areas. The forecast results are further exploited for the evaluation and prediction of human discomfort and fire weather indices. Finally, sea wave models have also been operating daily over the central and eastern Mediterranean Sea. In case a severe or extreme weather event is forecasted within the next 48 or 72 h for selected target areas (sub-regions defined by their morphological and population characteristics), the local authorities and the public are informed via a user-friendly graphic system, the so-called RISK MAP. On the web page of the Project ( http://www.riskmed.net ), additional information is provided about the real-time values of some meteorological parameters, the latest satellite picture and the time and space distribution of lightning during the last 24 h. The RISKMED project was financed by the EU and th Ministries of National Economy of Greece, Italy, Malta and Cyprus, in the frame of INTERREG IIIB/ARCHIMED programme.

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Awada, Ghada M., et Mar Gutiérrez-Colón. « Effect of Inclusion Versus Segregation on Reading Comprehension of EFL Learners with Dyslexia : Case of Lebanon ». English Language Teaching 10, n^o 9 (3 août 2017) : 49. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/elt.v10n9p49.

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This study reports the relative effectiveness of the inclusion theory when the combined strategy instruction on improving the reading comprehension of narrative and expository texts for students with dyslexia is implemented. A total sample of 298 students of English as a foreign language from both public and private schools participated in the study which employed a pre-test- post-test control group design to investigate the efficacy of combined strategy instruction consisting of Graphic organizers, Visual displays, Mnemonic illustrations, Computer exercises, Prediction, Inference, Text structure awareness, Main idea identification, Summarization, and Questioning. The study concluded that combined strategy instruction in the field of the inclusion theory is more effective than regular instruction in improving reading comprehension when using narrative texts, but there’s no difference, when using expository texts. There was no significant difference neither by gender nor by school types in all the grade levels under study.

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Civek, Burak Cevat, et Suleyman Serdar Kozat. « Efficient Implementation of Newton-Raphson Methods for Sequential Data Prediction ». IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering 29, n^o 12 (1 décembre 2017) : 2786–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/tkde.2017.2754380.

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Tian, Qing Fei, Shu Zhi Zhao et Yang Cao. « Prediction of Station Passenger Flow Volume Based on Fractal Theory ». Applied Mechanics and Materials 99-100 (septembre 2011) : 203–6. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.99-100.203.

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In order to seek the distribution rule of station passenger flow and discuss research methods of public transport based on station, prediction model of station passenger flow volume was proposed with the fractal theory. Firstly, it used correlation dimension to establish a time series forecasting model, which analyzes the time distribution rule of station passenger flow with the phase space reconstruction theory. Finally, it took the stations of Route 255 in Changchun as example, which used the time series forecasting model to forecast the station passenger flow volume at moments. It is shown that the model obtains a less error and a greater application value.

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Kin, Taichi, Hiroshi Oyama, Kyousuke Kamada, Shigeki Aoki, Kuni Ohtomo et Nobuhito Saito. « PREDICTION OF SURGICAL VIEW OF NEUROVASCULAR DECOMPRESSION USING INTERACTIVE COMPUTER GRAPHICS ». Neurosurgery 65, n^o 1 (1 juillet 2009) : 121–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1227/01.neu.0000347890.19718.0a.

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ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To assess the value of an interactive visualization method for detecting the offending vessels in neurovascular compression syndrome in patients with facial spasm and trigeminal neuralgia. Computer graphics models are created by fusion of fast imaging employing steady-state acquisition and magnetic resonance angiography. METHODS High-resolution magnetic resonance angiography and fast imaging employing steady-state acquisition were performed preoperatively in 17 patients with neurovascular compression syndromes (facial spasm, n = 10; trigeminal neuralgia, n = 7) using a 3.0-T magnetic resonance imaging scanner. Computer graphics models were created with computer software and observed interactively for detection of offending vessels by rotation, enlargement, reduction, and retraction on a graphic workstation. Two-dimensional images were reviewed by 2 radiologists blinded to the clinical details, and 2 neurosurgeons predicted the offending vessel with the interactive visualization method before surgery. Predictions from the 2 imaging approaches were compared with surgical findings. The vessels identified during surgery were assumed to be the true offending vessels. RESULTS Offending vessels were identified correctly in 16 of 17 patients (94%) using the interactive visualization method and in 10 of 17 patients using 2-dimensional images. These data demonstrated a significant difference (P = 0.015 by Fisher's exact method). CONCLUSION The interactive visualization method data corresponded well with surgical findings (surgical field, offending vessels, and nerves). Virtual reality 3-dimensional computer graphics using fusion magnetic resonance angiography and fast imaging employing steady-state acquisition may be helpful for preoperative simulation.

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Bradic-Martinovic, Aleksandra. « Stock market prediction using technical analysis ». Ekonomski anali 51, n^o 170 (2006) : 125–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/eka0670125b.

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Technical analysis (TA) is a form of analyzing market encompassing supply and demand of securities according to the study of their prices and trading volume. Using the appropriate methods, TA aims to identify price movements in the stock market, futures or currencies. In short, TA analysis is the process by which "future price movements are formulated according to the price history". TA originates from the work of Charles Dow and his conclusions about the global behavior of the market, as well as from Elliot Wave Theory. Dow did not regard its theory as a tool for stock market movement prediction, nor as a guide for investors, but as a kind of barometer of general market movements. The term TA methods encompasses all the methods used in tracking prices aiming to clearly predict future events. Many different methods, mainly statistical, are used in technical analysis, the most popular ones being: establishing and following trends using moving average, recognizing price momentum, calculating indicators and oscillators, as well as cycle analysis (structure indicators). It is also necessary to point out that TA is not a science in the true meaning of the term, and that methods it uses frequently deviate from the conventional manner of their use. The main advantage of these methods is their relative ease of use, aiming to give as clear picture as possible of price movements, while at the same time avoiding the use of complicated and complex mathematical methods. The reason for this is simple and is reflected in the dynamics of financial markets, where changes occur during short periods of time and where prompt decision-making is of vital importance.

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Su, Jing, Sarah A. Teichmann et Thomas A. Down. « Assessing Computational Methods of Cis-Regulatory Module Prediction ». PLoS Computational Biology 6, n^o 12 (2 décembre 2010) : e1001020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1001020.

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Čolak, Stanko, et Ante Džolan. « Modal analysis of a multiple structure ». E3S Web of Conferences 175 (2020) : 05048. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202017505048.

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The aim of the work was to carry out a modal analysis of a multiple structure. Own forms of oscillation of the structure for five tones were obtained through the vector iteration process and were presented in table and graphic form. Using the different methods (Time history, SRSS and CQC), a calculation of the displacements was performed. Theoretically, all three methods are described and the results of the calculation for each of them are obtained. A comparison of the results, for the three methods in a given time interval, is graphically shown. Also, the results are compared which are all the same in all three methods. The modal seismic analysis of Spectral Theory was also performed. It can be concluded that by comparing the method of Time history and Spectral theory their results correspond to the maximum modal displacement.

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Arkhipova, I. V. « ASSESSMENT OF RELIABILITY OF ELECTRONICS COMPONENTS USING STATISTICAL PREDICTION METHODS ». Issues of radio electronics, n^o 6 (21 juin 2019) : 104–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.21778/2218-5453-2019-6-104-109.

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Ithin the framework of this article the question of gamma‑percentile time to failure of the electronic components of domestic production with strict performance requirements for resistance to external factors, as well as reliability, is considered. By now requirements in terms of gamma‑percentile time to failure of electronic components, used as part of advanced electronic equipment, reaching 150,000 hours under value of γ = 99%. Due to the increase in requirements for these products in terms of reliability, there is a need to develop new ideas and methods of reliability theory. In this article it is proposed to estimate the gamma‑percentile time to failure on the basis of the results of measurements of parameters‑criteria of validity, controlled by accelerated tests for reliability.

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Li, Xiao Lei, Jie Zhong Ma et Yang Ming Guo. « Multiple Variables Time Series Adaptive Prediction Model Based on Grey Theory ». Advanced Engineering Forum 6-7 (septembre 2012) : 97–103. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/aef.6-7.97.

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Fault prediction is critical to ensure the safety and reliability of complex system. The reported fault prediction methods have achieved some success in practical applications. Generally, the information used in fault prediction is always mined from multi-variable time series and small simple data. Thus, based on grey prediction theory, an adaptive prediction model with multi-variable small simple time series data is proposed. In this method, after analyzing the disadvantages of model, we modify the initial values and background values of model, and then the interrelations and characteristics of the multiple variables time series are taken into account. The results of experiment with a certain complex system show that the model has good prediction precision, which will be useful in applications.

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