Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Price revision »

AbstractThis paper shows the effect of a series of system revisions of judicial real estate auction in the 2000s on three factors: bid acceptance ratio, number of bidders, and highest bid. Using multiyear data of auctions from multiple district courts, I estimate the improvement of the three factors by the revision.Furthermore, comparing real estate auction data with voluntary sale and general real estate trading data, I find that the selling price in auction was greatly lower than the price in voluntary sale even after the system revisions. Based on the empirical results, I suggest about necessity of further system revisions.

AbstractIn this chapter the most famous writer of (female) affective individualism, Jane Austen, and her canonical third published novel Mansfield Park featuring her supposedly most unpopular heroine Fanny Price is juxtaposed with orator Robert Wedderburn’s much more obscure pamphlet The Horrors of Slavery. The chapter also revisits Edward Said’s famous theory of counterpoint in his reading of Austen and proposes instead a focus on entanglement. By contrasting the two texts and their relation to the abolition of the slave trade in 1807, readers get a better understanding of how writers used the affective means of prose writing to introduce more resistant entangled tonalities of familial feeling. Austen presents wilful female subjectivity in a family that invested in slavery and Wedderburn, the unruly planter son, claims familiarity with both his enslaved mother and his slave-owning father, challenging the formula of the “horrors of slavery”. Via internal focalization and incendiary rhetoric respectively both texts tonally also create a more intimate familiarity with their readers. They thus aesthetically resist writing conventions and introduce more ambivalent nuance: pushing the limits of the genre of the country-house novel in Austen and refuting the demure tone of abolitionist writing in Wedderburn.

The food-energy-water nexus (FEWN) has been receiving increasing interest in the open literature as a framework to address the widening gap between natural resource availability and demand, towards more sustainable and cost-competitive solutions. The FEWN aims at holistically integrating the three interconnected subsystems of food, energy and water, into a single representative network. However, such an integration poses formidable challenges due to the complexity and multi-scale nature of the three subsystems and their respective interconnections. Additionally, the significant input data uncertainty and variability, such as energy prices and demands, or the evaluation of emerging technologies, contribute to the system�s inherent complexity. In this work, we revisit the FEWN problem in an attempt to elucidate and address in a systematic way issues related to its multi-scale complexity, uncertainty and variability. In particular, we provide a classification of the sources of data and technology uncertainty from historic data, forecasting and process parameters, and propose ways to quantify their impact on the integrated system analysis. To effectively tame the FEWN�s multi-scale complexity, we distinguish between the introduced error of approximation and optimization of employed surrogate models. In turn, it is possible to characterize their impact on optimal FEWN decision-making based on the quantification of the introduced errors at all levels. Thus, we present strategies to systematically characterize FEWN process systems modeling and optimization. Ultimately, this facilitates translating obtained solutions into actionable knowledge by quantifying the level of confidence one can have in the derived process model and optimal results.

Social networks on the Internet have seen an enormous growth recently and play a crucial role in different aspects of today's life. They have facilitated information dissemination in ways that have been beneficial for their users but it is also a common belief that they are often used strategically in order to spread information that only serves the objectives of particular users. These properties have inspired a revision of classical opinion formation models from sociology using game-theoretic notions and tools. We follow the same modeling approach, focusing on scenarios where the opinion expressed by each user is a compromise between her internal belief and the opinions of a small number of neighbors among her social acquaintances. We formulate simple games that capture this behavior and quantify the inefficiency of equilibria using the well-known notion of the price of anarchy. Our results indicate that compromise comes at a cost that strongly depends on the neighborhood size.

Abstract Main Electrical Equipment Supplier (MEES) concept has been adopted on mega projects to facilitate overall electrical power system integration and standardization of items/systems within an EPC package as well as across multiple EPC packages and to avoid interface issues. A gap analysis has been performed in this paper based on experience on recent projects and recommendations are proposed as mitigation measures which will benefit Clients, Suppliers as well as FEED/EPC CONTRACTORs. Challenges faced during execution are categorized based on type as well as execution stages. Paper focusses on the major items to be defined as part of the frame agreement during MEES selection to minimize conflicts and issues later on. MEES package pricing (including material, non-material items and services) is done based on agreed Price Book. Gaps are identified as part of this paper including the methodology for change management. Scope limitation is also discussed in detail with clear objective of minimal risk to all stakeholders. Timing and responsibility of MEES selection, that is critical on mega projects with multiple packages, has also been analyzed. Concept of MEES is highly recommended on projects that have complex electrical power system, projects involving multiple EPC CONTRACTORs and also on the projects that are fast track in nature. It has been observed that most projects these days fall into one of these two categories which makes this paper even more relevant. However, execution of MEES package has vast scope for improvement. As part of MEES selection, the following shall be agreed and established, as a minimum: Selected make & model list of all the components along with the unit rates as part of MEES frame agreement that acceptable on project. Price book including all the main equipment envisaged on the project fully complying with project requirements. Comprehensive technical deviations acceptance list as part of MEES frame agreement. Technical compliance certificate indicating Vendor's compliance on the latest revision of Specifications/Data Sheets/ drawings associated with MEES Material Requisition (MR). Price Book should be sufficiently comprehensive without gaps to avoid variations after award. Most common gaps are identified and discussed in detail in the paper. It is highly recommended to select MEES during FEED stage (prior to bidding stage) in order to take advantages in terms of project schedule, change management and overall cost optimization. MEES concept, if managed with recommendations in this paper, can benefit all stakeholders.

The proliferation of new codes & standards for power generation equipment procurement, and their increased frequency of revision, contributes to an atmosphere of increasingly rapid change in global trade considerations. This dynamic environment has amplified intensely with each year, to an extent that the life cycle of a given standard is in many instances appreciably less than the delivery cycles of heavy machinery. Other issues are created by the slower pace of harmonization of codes & standards in the European Union (EU), US and elsewhere. These codes & standards cover requirements that include emissions, acoustics, and safety that exert pronounced effects on the design, manufacture, and integration of power plant components. Conformity assessment partnering and the importance of other expert interpretation services are a key component to successfully meeting evolving compliance requirements. Delivering Customer Fulfillment for the Order to Remittance (OTR) phase of a project must be circled back to the Inquiry to Order (ITO) front end of the business cycle for new proposals. Another interesting arena is the relationship of advanced prime mover design balanced with the need for standardization to meet these regulatory challenges in the face of high production volume. The typical power generation project cycle, measured in terms of years, coupled with the present high demand worldwide results in orders for equipment that in many cases can’t foresee regulatory requirements 2 to 3 years into the future. Examples include projects in the EU where the Pressure Equipment Directive (PED) and Atmospheres Explosive (ATEX) Directive have mandatory compliance dates of May 2002 and June 2003 respectively. Electric power generation Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) and their suppliers must plan for and price into contracts compliance with these laws years before the equipment is built and shipped. This is further complicated by the interpretation of specific requirements and the definition of the OEM conformity assessment strategy. To rectify this situation, it is recommended that steps be initiated to accelerate the worldwide harmonization of technical standards. In addition, consideration for the delivery cycles and commissioning of new power plants must be included in the regulatory process and in setting the dates for mandatory compliance with regional law.

In the field of Power Generation, Operators — Plant Owners, Utilities, IPPs … — have had to face severe constraints linked not only with price of electricity and cost of fuel, but also with more and more demanding environmental constraints. It appears that the next atmospheric emission coming under scrutiny is CO2. Some small scale laboratory size experiments and pilot scale tests demonstrating the ability to capture CO2 before it reaches the atmosphere have already been conducted, and some industrial scale demonstrators are already at the permitting stage and will soon reach construction. In order to anticipate the needs of Performance Tests within this coming market, ASME decided to form a new committee in order to prepare and deliver ASME Performance Test Code – PTC 48 “Overall Plant Performance with Carbon Capture” test code. This new code may be seen as an evolution of ASME PTC 46 “Performance Test Code on Overall Plant Performance” 1996 (currently under revision), which goes beyond the sole verification of components to provide guidelines for testing a full Plant. Capturing CO2 from fuel–fired power plants will have a significant impact on net capacity and net heat rate of the plant. Such plants will, in addition to the Power Block and Steam Generator, also include systems not commonly included in non-CO2 capture power plants. The addition of an ASU (Air Separation Unit, for oxy-combustion with CO2 capture) and/or CPU (CO2 Purification Unit, for oxy-combustion or post-combustion CO2 capture) has made necessary the preparation of a dedicated test code based upon same guiding principle than PTC 46, i.e. treating the plant globally as a “Black Box”. This approach allows correction of output and efficiency at the plant interfaces, but at the exclusion of internal parameters. It is anticipated that the code can inform development of regulations that define the rules and obligations of Operators. Currently, the proposed PTC 48 aims at fossil fuel fired Steam-electric power plants using either post-combustion CO2 capture or oxy-combustion with CO2 capture technologies. Combined cycles and Integrated Gasification Combined Cycles — IGCCs — are not addressed.

The Brazilian Rail Regulatory Framework was reviewed in 2011 by the National In Land Transport Agency (ANTT), with the edition of a package of Regulatory Resolutions (Resolution nº. 3,694 - Regulation of General Rules for Shippers and Rail Companies, Resolution nº. 3,695 - Regulation of Trackage and Haulage Rights, and Resolution nº. 3,696 - Regulation for Stretch Production Targets and Safety Targets Procedure Agreements) with the basic objectives of: i) create incentives for rail interoperability, ii) promote intra sector competition and, hence, enhance rail role in the national transport sector, and iii) establish new funding sources for the rail sector, in order to support investments needed for increasing rail system capacity. These, together with other structural measures already adopted by ANTT, such as the regulation of investments made by rail concessionaires and the revision of rail price cap rates, complemented the package of rail regulatory measures. For the effective implementation of the principles set out in the mentioned rail regulatory framework review, however, it was necessary to develop a sort of tools to allow regulatory control and reduce asymmetric information within the actors of this important industry. Among these tools, it is highlighted the Rail Network Statement, established by Resolution ANTT nº. 3,695/2011, basically composed of a compilation of the existing rail network main operational and technical data, such as rail gauges, load capacities, operational speeds, clearances, location of locomotives and wagons repair facilities as well as fuel stations, including an inventory of traffic capacity, with a survey of available capacity in all sections of the national rail network. This dataset was intended to reduce asymmetric information between rail industry players - Regulatory Authority, Rail Carriers and Shippers, and, so, enhance the negotiation processes for interoperability operations and investments agreements. Rail Network Statement must be filed annually by Concessionaires, and after a critical analysis and data review by the regulatory agency, it is released on its website for public access to support rail interoperability planning and negotiation process. This work is supposed to present an overview of Brazilian Rail Network Statement structure, with a Case Study Analysis of 2013 Edition, the first issued, with a strong focus on rail capacity analysis, an essential requirement for rail interoperability.

Abstract This paper presents a quantitative approach, using disclosed annual revisions of proved reserves, to judge the reasonable certainty of the underlying proved reserves. We identified issues that affect proper categorization of annual reserves changes in a previous SPE publication (SPE 209695) and incorporated them in this paper to quantify the technical revisions of disclosed proved reserves (and their reasonable certainty) during the period 2010 to 2020. Both over- and under-stated certainty of reserves estimates can impact a company's relative valuation, asset impairment, internal depreciation, profit/loss, standardized measure, unit development costs, and other indicators based on proved reserves. We analyzed 141 companies and extracted annual proved reserves changes disclosed from 2010 to 2020 in their SEC 10-K and 20-F forms or from comment letters for total, developed, and undeveloped reserves (in barrels of oil equivalent). As described in SPE 209695, we excluded, when available, (1) the impact due to changes in commodity prices and (2) other factors that distort the estimated technical revisions. We present, with examples based on actual data, the importance of separately analyzing developed and undeveloped proved reserves and the key drivers of the significant differences in average annual revisions between them. If these drivers are not carefully considered, results will lead to incorrect conclusions. Of the 141 companies analyzed, only 70 provided disclosures for five or more consecutive years of revisions for their total and undeveloped reserves during the 2010 to 2020 period. Of these, only 31 (or 22% of the 141) also disclosed revisions due to price changes in their total and undeveloped reserves. Other non-technical revisions are also required to estimate the technical revisions and judge the reasonable certainty of the disclosed developed and undeveloped reserves. However, the number of companies providing sufficient information to estimate technical revisions decreased to only 27 (or 19% of the 141) when we also considered the issues raised in our previous publication. Results indicate that, for many companies that provide the information required for proper analysis, the certainty level of their disclosed developed and undeveloped proved reserves can be significantly different, and appears to be much lower than the reasonable certainty, or high degree of confidence, required for proved developed and undeveloped reserves quantities, pointing towards an apparent over-estimation of historically disclosed proved reserves for many companies. We also highlight the issues that may still affect the estimated technical revisions, which may limit the validity of any conclusions drawn using the disclosed information. Our analysis shows the dubious quality and lack of reliability and consistency of some proved reserves revisions disclosed and highlights the limited value of current practices in disclosures of revisions in annual proved reserves. We provide evidence that call for FASB and/or SEC to provide complementary guidance in critical areas that currently limit the value and reliability of revisions to proved reserves disclosed.

The regulatory and operating context of energy networks is dynamic and constantly evolving. Achieving a multitude of economic, environmental, social and policy objectives is a challenging task for the sector regulators. The UK energy regulator Ofgem has proposed a revision of its approach to energy network price control and incentive regulation.

This study re-investigates the price discovery dynamics of selected stocks cross-listed on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) and the New Zealand Stock Exchange (NZX) during a bear trading phase from January 2008 to December 2011. A differing price discovery dynamic in a bear market versus a bull market may occur because of variations in investor sentiments and disparities in the role of the stock prices. Using intraday data, we employ the vector error correction mechanism, Hasbrouck’s (1995) information share and Grammig et al.’s (2005) conditional information share methods. Consistent with previous research, we find that price discovery takes place mostly on the home market for the Australian firms and for all but one of the New Zealand firms. However, not seen in existing studies, we show that the NZX has grown in importance for both the Australian and New Zealand firms. This suggests that the NZX is deviating from being a pure satellite market.

This study re-investigates the price discovery dynamics of selected stocks cross-listed on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) and the New Zealand Stock Exchange (NZX) during a bear trading phase from January 2008 to December 2011. A differing price discovery dynamic in a bear market versus a bull market may occur because of variations in investor sentiments and disparities in the role of the stock prices. Using intraday data, we employ the vector error correction mechanism, Hasbrouck’s (1995) information share and Grammig et al.’s (2005) conditional information share methods. Consistent with previous research, we find that price discovery takes place mostly on the home market for the Australian firms and for all but one of the New Zealand firms. However, not seen in existing studies, we show that the NZX has grown in importance for both the Australian and New Zealand firms. This suggests that the NZX is deviating from being a pure satellite market.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

Although CGE models have received heavy usage, they are often criticized as being insufficiently validated. Key parameters are often not econometrically estimated, and the performance of the model as a whole is rarely checked against historical outcomes. As a consequence, questions frequently arise as to how much faith one can put in CGE results. In this paper, we employ a novel approach to the validation of a widely utilized global CGE model – GTAP-E. By comparing the variance of model generated petroleum price distributions -- driven by historical demand and supply shocks to the model-- with observed five-year moving average price distributions, we conclude that energy demand in GTAP-E is far too price-elastic over this time frame. After incorporating the latest econometric estimates of energy demand and supply elasticities, we revisit the validation question and find the model to perform more satisfactorily. As a further check, we compare a deterministic global general equilibrium simulation, based on historical realizations over the 2001-2006 period during which petroleum prices rose sharply, along with growing global energy demands. As anticipated by the stochastic simulations, the revised model parameters perform much better than the original GTAP-E parameters in this global, general equilibrium context.

This paper studies volatility spillovers in credit default swaps (CDS) between the corporate sectors and Latin American countries. Daily data from October 14, 2006, to August 23, 2021, are employed. Spillovers are computed both for the raw data and for filtered series which factor out the effect of global common factors on the various CDS series. Results indicate that most spillovers occur within groups that is, within the series of sovereign CDS contracts and the price contracts of CDS issued by global corporations. However, considerable spillovers are also registered between LAC sovereigns and corporations. Interesting differences are encountered between filtered and unfiltered data. Specifically, spillovers from countries to corporations are overestimated (by about 4.3 percentage points) and spillovers from corporations to sovereigns are underestimated (by about 5.8 percentage points) when unfiltered data are used. This result calls for a revision of results obtained from studies that do not consider the role played by global common factors in system spillovers. Like in most related studies, spillovers show considerable time variation, being larger during times of financial or economic distress. When looking at total system spillovers over time, those corresponding to unfiltered series are always larger than those corresponding to filtered series. The difference between the two time series is largest in times of distress, indicating that global factors play a major role in times of crisis. Similar conclusions are derived from network analysis.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Agricultural Baseline provides a 10-year outlook for seven major U.S. crops (corn, soybeans, wheat, sorghum, barley, oats, cotton) and plays an important role in predicting farm program expenditures in the President's annual budget proposal. To provide the best-possible projections, it is necessary to frequently revisit the underlying models behind the baseline to ensure that they are theoretically consistent and produce realistic projections. This study examined the performance of the existing area planted equations for seven major U.S. crops in the U.S. baseline model relative to observed historical area planted values. It subsequently estimated a system of equations for seven major U.S. crops to produce price consistent supply (i.e., higher price increases own supply but decreases other crop supplies)