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Thèses sur le sujet « Probabilities »

Auteur : Grafiati

Publié le 4 juin 2021

Mis à jour le 25 juillet 2025

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1

Piesse, Andrea Robyn. "Coherent predictive probabilities." Thesis, University of Canterbury. Mathematics and Statistics, 1996. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/8049.

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The main aim of this thesis is to study ways of predicting the outcome of a vector of category counts from a particular group, in the presence of like data from other groups regarded exchangeably with this one and with each other. The situation is formulated using the subjectivist framework and strategies for estimating these predictive probabilities are presented and analysed with regard to their coherency. The range of estimation procedures considered covers naive, empirical Bayes and hierarchical Bayesian methods. Surprisingly, it turns out that some of these strategies must be asserted wit

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2

Beebee, Helen. "Causes and probabilities." Thesis, King's College London (University of London), 1996. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.244728.

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3

Das, Sreejith. "Class conditional voting probabilities." Thesis, Birkbeck (University of London), 2008. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.497794.

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4

Yu, Xiaofeng. "Prediction Intervals for Class Probabilities." The University of Waikato, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10289/2436.

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Prediction intervals for class probabilities are of interest in machine learning because they can quantify the uncertainty about the class probability estimate for a test instance. The idea is that all likely class probability values of the test instance are included, with a pre-specified confidence level, in the calculated prediction interval. This thesis proposes a probabilistic model for calculating such prediction intervals. Given the unobservability of class probabilities, a Bayesian approach is employed to derive a complete distribution of the class probability of a test instance based o

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5

Roy, Kirk Andrew. "Laplace transforms, probabilities and queues." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1997. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk2/ftp01/MQ31000.pdf.

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6

Peña-Castillo, Maria de Lourdes. "Probabilities and simulations in poker." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1999. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape7/PQDD_0018/MQ47080.pdf.

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7

老瑞欣 and Sui-yan Victor Lo. "Statistical modelling of gambling probabilities." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 1992. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B3123270X.

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8

Cooper, Iain E. "Surface reactions and sticking probabilities." Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2004. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.403696.

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9

Van, Jaarsveldt Cole. "Modelling probabilities of corporate default." Master's thesis, Faculty of Commerce, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/31331.

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This dissertation follows, scrupulously, the probability of default model used by the National University of Singapore Risk Management Institute (NUS-RMI). Any deviations or omissions are noted with reasons related to the scope of this study on modelling probabilities of corporate default of South African firms. Using our model, we simulate defaults and subsequently, infer parameters using classical statistical frequentist likelihood estimation and one-world-view pseudo-likelihood estimation. We improve the initial estimates from our pseudo-likelihood estimation by using Sequential Monte Carlo

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10

Lo, Sui-yan Victor. "Statistical modelling of gambling probabilities /." [Hong Kong] : University of Hong Kong, 1992. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record.jsp?B13205389.

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11

Tallur, Gayatri. "Uncertain data integration with probabilities." Thesis, The University of North Carolina at Greensboro, 2014. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=1551297.

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<p> Real world applications that deal with information extraction, such as business intelligence software or sensor data management, must often process data provided with varying degrees of uncertainty. Uncertainty can result from multiple or inconsistent sources, as well as approximate schema mappings. Modeling, managing and integrating uncertain data from multiple sources has been an active area of research in recent years. In particular, data integration systems free the user from the tedious tasks of finding relevant data sources, interacting with each source in isolation using its corresp

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12

Zuccon, Guido. "Document ranking with quantum probabilities." Thesis, University of Glasgow, 2012. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/69287/1/zuccon2012b.pdf.

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In this thesis we investigate the use of quantum probability theory for ranking documents. Quantum probability theory is used to estimate the probability of relevance of a document given a user's query. We posit that quantum probability theory can lead to a better estimation of the probability of a document being relevant to a user's query than the common approach, i. e. the Probability Ranking Principle (PRP), which is based upon Kolmogorovian probability theory. Following our hypothesis, we formulate an analogy between the document retrieval scenario and a physical scenario, that of the doub

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13

Zuccon, Guido. "Document ranking with quantum probabilities." Thesis, University of Glasgow, 2012. http://theses.gla.ac.uk/3463/.

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In this thesis we investigate the use of quantum probability theory for ranking documents. Quantum probability theory is used to estimate the probability of relevance of a document given a user's query. We posit that quantum probability theory can lead to a better estimation of the probability of a document being relevant to a user's query than the common approach, i.e. the Probability Ranking Principle (PRP), which is based upon Kolmogorovian probability theory. Following our hypothesis, we formulate an analogy between the document retrieval scenario and a physical scenario, that of the doubl

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14

Gaier, Johanna, Peter Grandits, and Walter Schachermayer. "Asymptotic ruin probabilities and optimal investment." SFB Adaptive Information Systems and Modelling in Economics and Management Science, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2002. http://epub.wu.ac.at/1260/1/document.pdf.

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We study the infinite time ruin probability for an insurance company in the classical Cramér-Lundberg model with finite exponential moments. The additional non-classical feature is that the company is also allowed to invest in some stock market, modeled by geometric Brownian motion. We obtain an exact analogue of the classical estimate for the ruin probability without investment, i.e., an exponential inequality. The exponent is larger than the one obtained without investment, the classical Lundberg adjustment coefficient, and thus one gets a sharper bound on the ruin probability. A surprising

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15

Listgarten, Jennifer. "Exploring Qualitative Probabilities for image understanding." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 2000. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape3/PQDD_0011/MQ53388.pdf.

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16

Bordianu, Gheorghita. "Learning influence probabilities in social networks." Thesis, McGill University, 2013. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=114597.

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Social network analysis is an important cross-disciplinary area of research, with applications in fields such as biology, epidemiology, marketing and even politics. Influence maximization is the problem of finding the set of seed nodes in an information diffusion process that guarantees maximum spread of influence in a social network, given its structure. Most approaches to this problem make two assumptions. First, the global structure of the network is known. Second, influence probabilities between any two nodes are known beforehand, which is rarely the case in practical settings. In this the

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17

Wilson, Nigel John. "Inner-shell photoionization and transition probabilities." Thesis, Queen's University Belfast, 2000. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.314150.

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18

Lowe, Gavin. "Probabilities and priorities in timed CSP." Thesis, University of Oxford, 1993. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:cfec28d9-aa50-46f3-a664-eb5fbe97b261.

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19

Sletmo, Patrik. "Introducing probabilities within grey-box fuzzing." Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Databas och informationsteknik, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-161893.

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Over the recent years, the software industry has faced a steady increase in the number of exposed and exploited software vulnerabilities. With more software and devices being connected to the internet every day, the need for proactive security measures has never been more important. One promising new technology for making software more secure is fuzz testing. This automated testing technique is based around generating a large number of test cases with the intention of revealing dangerous bugs and vulnerabilities. In this thesis work, a new direction within grey-box fuzz testing is evaluated ag

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20

Deyoe, Kelly Joseph 1957. "TYPE OF EVIDENCE AS A BASIS FOR COMBINING SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITIES." Thesis, The University of Arizona, 1987. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/276454.

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Two models for aggregating subjective probabilities are presented. One employs a multiplicative rule and the other a weighted average. The choice of a model is based on the type of evidence upon which the subjective probabilities were estimated. An experiment was developed to determine if people are sensitive to this difference in the type of evidence when combining subjective probabilities. Two other variables tested were the tense of the event and the experience of the subject with the use of probabilities. The type of evidence presented had an effect on the combination rule employed, wherea

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21

Truran, J. M. "The teaching and learning of probability, with special reference to South Australian schools from 1959-1994." Title page, contents and abstract only, 2001. http://web4.library.adelaide.edu.au/theses/09PH/09pht872.pdf.

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22

Koether, Paul. "GARCH-like models with dynamic crash-probabilities." [S.l.] : [s.n.], 2005. http://deposit.ddb.de/cgi-bin/dokserv?idn=976610248.

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23

Feng, Yi. "Dynamic Fuzzy Logic Control of GeneticAlgorithm Probabilities." Thesis, Högskolan Dalarna, Datateknik, 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:du-3286.

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Genetic algorithms are commonly used to solve combinatorial optimizationproblems. The implementation evolves using genetic operators (crossover, mutation,selection, etc.). Anyway, genetic algorithms like some other methods have parameters(population size, probabilities of crossover and mutation) which need to be tune orchosen.In this paper, our project is based on an existing hybrid genetic algorithmworking on the multiprocessor scheduling problem. We propose a hybrid Fuzzy-Genetic Algorithm (FLGA) approach to solve the multiprocessor scheduling problem.The algorithm consists in adding a fuzzy

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24

Peterson, Kristofer A. "Numerical simulation investigations in weapon delivery probabilities." Thesis, Monterey, Calif. : Naval Postgraduate School, 2008. http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA483491.

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Thesis (M.S. in Mechanica;l Engineering)--Naval Postgraduate School, June 2008.<br>Thesis Advisor(s): Driels, Morris. "June 2008." Description based on title screen as viewed on August 26, 2008. Includes bibliographical references (p. 67). Also available in print.

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25

Coutinho, Cristina Fonseca. "Sovereign default probabilities within the european crisis." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/4955.

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Mestrado em Matemática Financeira<br>In this thesis we assess the real default probabilities of three groups of European sovereigns - peripheral, central and safe haven - in order to get a forward looking measure of the market sentiment about their default, as well as their evolution within the current European crisis. We follow Moody's CDS-implied EDF Credit Measures and Fair-Value Spreads methodology by extracting risk-neutral probabilities of default, assumed to be Weibull distributed, from CDS spreads and convert them into real probabilities of default, using an adaptation of the Merton m

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26

Merkel, Benjamin E. "Probabilities of Consecutive Events in Coin Flipping." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2011. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1307442290.

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27

Mu, Xiaoyu. "Ruin probabilities with dependent forces of interest." [Johnson City, Tenn. : East Tennessee State University], 2003. https://dc.etsu.edu/etd/796.

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Thesis (M.S.)--East Tennessee State University, 2003.<br>Title from electronic submission form. ETSU ETD database URN: etd-0713103-233105. Includes bibliographical references. Also available via Internet at the UMI web site.

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28

Bissey, Nancy R. "Probabilistic reasoning based on age of students and context of questions /." free to MU campus, to others for purchase, 1996. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/mo/fullcit?p9737862.

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29

Ambrose, Charles R. "Strehl ratio probabilities for phase-only adaptive optic." Thesis, Monterey, Calif. : Springfield, Va. : Naval Postgraduate School ; Available from National Technical Information Service, 1999. http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA362881.

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Thesis (M.S. in Systems Engineering) Naval Postgraduate School, March 1999.<br>Thesis advisor(s): Donald L. Walters, David L. Fried. "March 1999". Includes bibliographical references (p. 69). Also available online.

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30

Sinn, Mathieu. "Estimation of ordinal pattern probabilities in stochastic processes." Lübeck Zentrale Hochschulbibliothek Lübeck, 2010. http://d-nb.info/1002256178/34.

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31

Bertacchi, D., F. Zucca, and Andreas Cap@esi ac at. "Uniform Asymptotic Estimates of Transition Probabilities on Combs." ESI preprints, 2001. ftp://ftp.esi.ac.at/pub/Preprints/esi1003.ps.

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32

Bruns, Morgan Chase. "Propagation of Imprecise Probabilities through Black Box Models." Thesis, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/10553.

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From the decision-based design perspective, decision making is the critical element of the design process. All practical decision making occurs under some degree of uncertainty. Subjective expected utility theory is a well-established method for decision making under uncertainty; however, it assumes that the DM can express his or her beliefs as precise probability distributions. For many reasons, both practical and theoretical, it can be beneficial to relax this assumption of precision. One possible means for avoiding this assumption is the use of imprecise probabilities. Imprecise probab

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33

Sun, Guohong. "Risk premiums and their applications in ruin probabilities." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1999. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape7/PQDD_0002/MQ41784.pdf.

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34

Zhu, Yuhong. "COMPUTING CALL BLOCKING PROBABILITIES IN WAVELENGTH ROUTING NETWORKS." NCSU, 1999. http://www.lib.ncsu.edu/theses/available/etd-19990322-203342.

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<p>We study a class of circuit switched wavelength routing networks with fixed or alternate routing, with or without converts, and with various wavelength allocation policies.We first construct an exact Markov process and an approximate Markovprocess which has a closed-form solution for a single path. We alsodevelop an iterative decomposition algorithm to analyze long paths with orwithout wavelength converters effectively. Based on this algorithm, we thenpresent an iterative path decomposition algorithm to evaluate the blocking performance of mesh topology networks with fixed and alternate rou

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35

Ekenberg, Love. "A unified framework for indeterminate probabilities and utilities /." Stockholm : Matematiska institutionen, Stockholms universitet, 2005. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-358.

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36

Hirani, Pranav. "Dynamic models of credit ratings and default probabilities." Diss., Columbia, Mo. : University of Missouri-Columbia, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10355/5998.

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Thesis (M.A.)--University of Missouri-Columbia, 2007.<br>The entire dissertation/thesis text is included in the research.pdf file; the official abstract appears in the short.pdf file (which also appears in the research.pdf); a non-technical general description, or public abstract, appears in the public.pdf file. Title from title screen of research.pdf file (viewed on April 17, 2008) Includes bibliographical references.

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37

Blais, Éric. "Computing probabilities for common substrings in random strings." Thesis, McGill University, 2006. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=99324.

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The Common Substring in Random Strings (CSRS) problem is defined as follows: what is the probability that a set of r random strings of length n generated by a random process P contain a common substring of length k? In this thesis, we investigate the CSRS problem and introduce two new methods for computing approximate solutions to the CSRS problem in the cases where the random strings are generated by a Bernoulli or Markov process. We also present generalizations to the methods to compute the probability of finding a common substring among only q of the r random strings, and to allow mismatche

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38

Ferreira, Poblete Alberto Julio. "On the modelling and analysis of conception probabilities." Thesis, Imperial College London, 2001. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.271120.

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39

Hu, Y. F. "Intermodulation interference probabilities in cellular mobile radio systems." Thesis, University of Bradford, 1987. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.380394.

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40

Knizel, Alisa. "Random tilings : gap probabilities, local and global asymptotics." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/112900.

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Thesis: Ph. D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Mathematics, 2017.<br>Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.<br>Includes bibliographical references (pages 119-125).<br>In the thesis we explore and develop two different approaches to the study of random tiling models. First, we consider tilings of a hexagon by rombi, viewed as 3D random stepped surfaces with a measure proportional to q-volume. Such model is closely related to q-Hahn orthogonal polynomial ensembles, and we use this connection to obtain results about the local behavior of this model. In terms of the q-Hahn ort

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41

Mackay, Francisco J. "Calculating failure probabilities of passive systems during transients." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/41308.

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Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Nuclear Science and Engineering, 2007.<br>Includes bibliographical references (p. 45-46).<br>A time-dependent reliability evaluation of a two-loop passive Decay Heat Removal (DHR) system was performed as part of the iterative design process for a helium-cooled fast reactor. The system was modeled using RELAP5-3D. The uncertainties in input parameters were assessed and were propagated through the model using Latin Hypercube Sampling. An important finding was the discovery that the smaller pressure loss through the DHR heat exchanger

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42

Cannon, Joseph E. "Approximation of Marginal Probabilities While Learning Bayesian Networks." NSUWorks, 2000. http://nsuworks.nova.edu/gscis_etd/444.

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Computation of marginal probabilities in Bayesian Belief Networks is central to many probabilistic reasoning systems and automatic decision making systems. The process of belief updating in Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) is a well-known computationally hard problem that has recently been approximated by several deterministic algorithms and by various randomized approximation algorithms. Although the deterministic algorithms usually provide probability bounds, they have exponential runtimes. Some of the randomized schemes have a polynomial runtime, but do not exploit the causal independence in

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43

Piffer, Michele. "An analysis of leverage ratios and default probabilities." Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 2014. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/989/.

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The thesis consists of three independent chapters. In Chapter 1 (page 7) - Counter-cyclical defaults in “costly state verification” models - I argue that a pro-cyclical risk-free rate can solve the problem of pro-cyclical defaults in “costly state verification” models. Using a partial equilibrium framework, I compute numerically the coefficient of a Taylor rule that delivers pro-cyclical output, pro-cyclical capital and counter-cyclical defaults. This parametrization is consistent with the empirical evidence on Taylor rules. In Chapter 2 (page 67) - Monetary Policy, Leverage, and Default - I u

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44

Humphreys, Natalia A. "A central limit theorem for complex-valued probabilities /." The Ohio State University, 1999. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1488187049540163.

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45

Vignudelli, Valeria <1985&gt. "Behavioral Equivalences for Higher-Order Languages with Probabilities." Doctoral thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2017. http://amsdottorato.unibo.it/7968/7/Vignudelli_Valeria_tesi.pdf.

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Higher-order languages, whose paradigmatic example is the lambda-calculus, are languages with powerful operators that are capable of manipulating and exchanging programs themselves. This thesis studies behavioral equivalences for programs with higher-order and probabilistic features. Behavioral equivalence is formalized as a contextual, or testing, equivalence, and two main lines of research are pursued in the thesis. The first part of the thesis focuses on contextual equivalence as a way of investigating the expressiveness of different languages. The discriminating powers offered by highe

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46

Cerroni, Simone. "Subjective Probabilities in Choice Experiments' Design: Three Essays." Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi di Trento, 2013. https://hdl.handle.net/11572/368095.

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This dissertation which consists of three essays investigates the influence of subjective probabilities on decision making processes under conditions of risk. In particular, it examines whether subjects adjust new risk information on their prior subjective estimates, and, to what extent this adjustment affects their choices. In the first essay, by using an artefactual field experiment, I examine the potential correlation between incentive compatibility and validity of subjective probabilities elicited via the Exchangeability Method, an innovative elicitation mechanism which consists of severa

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47

Cerroni, Simone. "Subjective Probabilities in Choice Experiments' Design: Three Essays." Doctoral thesis, University of Trento, 2013. http://eprints-phd.biblio.unitn.it/871/1/Dissertation_Cerroni.pdf.

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This dissertation which consists of three essays investigates the influence of subjective probabilities on decision making processes under conditions of risk. In particular, it examines whether subjects adjust new risk information on their prior subjective estimates, and, to what extent this adjustment affects their choices. In the first essay, by using an artefactual field experiment, I examine the potential correlation between incentive compatibility and validity of subjective probabilities elicited via the Exchangeability Method, an innovative elicitation mechanism which consists of sever

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48

Hinlo, Ma Rheyda Penetrante. "Improving eDNA detection probabilities for monitoring aquatic species." Doctoral thesis, importedStudentThesis, 2018. https://researchprofiles.canberra.edu.au/en/studentTheses/f46a7b73-6314-4b90-b87d-49538604fcfd.

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49

Williams, Tasha Lyn. "A comparison of selection procedures for the best mean from a set of normal populations." Thesis, Georgia Institute of Technology, 1995. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/23420.

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50

Pekerten, Uygar Supervisor :. Körezliğlu Hayri. "Yield curve modelling via two parameter process." Ankara : METU, 2005. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12605905/index.pdf.

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