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Thèses sur le sujet « Risk and uncertainty theory »

Auteur : Grafiati
Publié le 25 janvier 2025

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1

Martinez-Correa, Jimmy. "Decisions under Risk, Uncertainty and Ambiguity: Theory and Experiments." Digital Archive @ GSU, 2012. http://digitalarchive.gsu.edu/rmi_diss/29.

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I combine theory, experiments and econometrics to undertake the task of disentangling the subtleties and implications of the distinction between risk, uncertainty and ambiguity. One general conclusion is that the elements of this methodological trilogy are not equally advanced. For example, new experimental tools must be developed to adequately test the predictions of theory. My dissertation is an example of this dynamic between theoretical and applied economics.
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Walker, Kenneth C. "Rhetorics of Uncertainty: Networked Deliberations in Climate Risk." Diss., The University of Arizona, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/556604.

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This dissertation applies a mixed-methods model across three cases of climate risk in order to examine the rhetorical dynamics of uncertainties. I argue that a rhetorical approach to uncertainties can effectively scaffold civic agency in risk communication by translating conflicting interests and creating sites of public participation. By tracing the networks of scientists and their artifacts through cases of climate risk, I demonstrate how the performances of scientific ethos and their material-discursive technologies facilitate the personalization of risk as a form of scientific prudence, an
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3

PANK, ROULUND Rasmus. "Essays in empirical economics." Doctoral thesis, European University Institute, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/1814/62944.

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Defence date: 20 May 2019<br>Examining Board: Prof. Jerome Adda (Supervisor); Prof. Piero Gottardi,University of Essex; Prof. Rosemarie Nagel, Universitat Pompeu Fabra; Prof. Glenn W. Harrison, Georgia State University<br>This first chapter is co-authored with Nicolás Aragón and examines how participant and market confidence affect the outcomes in an experimental asset market where the fundamental value is known by all participants. Such a market should, in theory, clear at the expected value in each period. However, the literature has shown that bubbles often occur in these markets. We m
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4

Li, Kehan. "Stress, uncertainty and multimodality of risk measures." Thesis, Paris 1, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017PA01E068.

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Dans cette thèse, nous discutons du stress, de l'incertitude et de la multimodalité des mesures de risque en accordant une attention particulière à deux parties. Les résultats ont une influence directe sur le calcul du capital économique et réglementaire des banques. Tout d'abord, nous fournissons une nouvelle mesure de risque - la VaR du stress du spectre (SSVaR) - pour quantifier et intégrer l'incertitude de la valeur à risque. C'est un modèle de mise en œuvre de la VaR stressée proposée par Bâle III. La SSVaR est basée sur l'intervalle de confiance de la VaR. Nous étudions la distribution a
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Raykov, Radoslav S. "Essays in Applied Microeconomic Theory." Thesis, Boston College, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/2345/bc-ir:104087.

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Thesis advisor: Utku Unver<br>This dissertation consists of three essays in microeconomic theory: two focusing on insurance theory and one on matching theory. The first chapter is concerned with catastrophe insurance. Motivated by the aftermath of hurricane Katrina, it studies a strategic model of catastrophe insurance in which consumers know that they may not get reimbursed if too many other people file claims at the same time. The model predicts that the demand for catastrophe insurance can ``bend backwards'' to zero, resulting in multiple equilibria and especially in market failure, which i
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Kentel, Elçin. "Uncertainty Modeling Health Risk Assessment and Groundwater Resources Management." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/11584.

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Real-world problems especially the ones that involve natural systems are complex and they are composed of many non-deterministic components. Uncertainties associated with these non-deterministic components may originate from randomness or from imprecision due to lack of information. Until recently, uncertainty, regardless of its nature or source has been treated by probability concepts. However, uncertainties associated with real-world systems are not limited to randomness. Imprecise, vague or incomplete information may better be represented by other mathematical tools, such as fuzzy set theor
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7

Zargar, Yaghoobi Amin H. "Handling uncertainty in hydrologic analysis and drought risk assessment using Dempster-Shafer theory." Thesis, University of British Columbia, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/43814.

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The aim of this thesis is to enhance some of the hydrologic analyses involved in drought risk assessment (DRA) to uncertainty-driven analyses therefore improving the accuracy and informativeness of DRA. In DRA, risk, or the expected loss from drought hazard is estimated by integrating the magnitude of hazard (i.e., drought severity) with vulnerability (i.e., susceptibility to losses from drought). Most hydrologic analyses including DRA are traditionally performed in a deterministic setting, ignoring data quality and uncertainty issues. Uncertainty can affect the accuracy of modeling results an
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8

Niculescu, Mihai. "Towards a Unified Treatment of Risk and Uncertainty in Choice Research." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2009. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1249493228.

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Zhao, Mingjun. "Essays on model uncertainty in macroeconomics." Columbus, Ohio : Ohio State University, 2006. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc%5Fnum=osu1153244452.

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10

Garcia, Thomas. "A behavioral approach of decision making under risk and uncertainty." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2019. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/132313/1/Thomas%20Jean-Christophe%20Lucien_Garcia_Thesis.pdf.

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This thesis investigates how individuals make decisions under risk and uncertainty. It is composed of four essays that theoretically and experimentally investigate decision-making. First, I study situations where individuals must decide whether an event has occurred using uncertain evidence. I highlight that individuals tend to maximize accuracy instead of maximizing expected payoffs. I find that it is partially due to the existence of a value of being right and a recency bias. Second, I study how ambiguity on the costs or the benefits of a donation affects donation behavior. I show that indiv
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11

Cook, Victoria Tracy 1960. "The effects of temporal uncertainty resolution on the overall utility and suspense of risky monetary and survival gambles /." Thesis, McGill University, 1989. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=75966.

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We extend Kreps and Porteus' (1978, 1979a,b) temporal utility theory to include measures of suspense for gambles that vary in the timing of uncertainty resolution. Our f$ sp t$-modification (of their theory) defines overall utility and suspense in terms of two functions: a standard utility function and an iterative function whose properties determine attitude towards temporal uncertainty resolution. Suspense, which is increasing with time delay to uncertainty resolution, is defined as the "variance" of the standard utilities of the outcome streams taken about our measure of overall utility (ra
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12

Humphrey, Steven James. "The economics and psychology of decision making under risk and uncertainty : an experimental investigation and integrating behavioural framework." Thesis, University of East Anglia, 1996. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.338218.

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Garcia, Thomas. "A behavioral approach of decision making under risk and uncertainty." Thesis, Lyon, 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019LYSE2042/document.

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Cette thèse porte sur la façon dont les individus prennent des décisions en présence de risque et d'incertitude. Elle est composée de quatre essais qui étudient théoriquement et expérimentalement la prise de décision.Les deux premiers essais étudient des situations où un décideur doit décider si un événement a eu lieu en utilisant des informations incertaines. Le fait d'identifier correctement que cet événement s'est produit est plus rémunéré que le fait d'identifier correctement qu'il ne s'est pas produit. Ce problème de décision induit une divergence entre deux qualités d'une décision : l'op
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14

Voßmann, Frank. "Decision weights in choice under risk and uncertainty : measurement and decomposition /." [S.l. : s.n.], 2004. http://www.gbv.de/dms/zbw/490610218.pdf.

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15

Broll, Udo, Peter Wenzel, and Kit Pong Wong. "Multinational Firm, Exchange Rate Risk and the Impact of Regret on Trade." Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2014. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-150460.

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This paper examines the behavior of the regret-averse multinational firm under exchange rate uncertainty. The multinational firm simultaneously sells in the home market and exports to a foreign country. We characterize the multinational firm's regret-averse preferences by a modified utility function that includes disutility from having chosen ex-post suboptimal alternatives. The extent of regret depends on the difference between the actual home currency profit and the maximum home currency profit attained by making the optimal production and export decisions had the multinational firm observed
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16

Guimarães, Pedro Henrique Engel. "Three essays on macro-finance: robustness and portfolio theory." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/19926.

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Submitted by Pedro Guimarães (pedroengel@hotmail.com) on 2017-12-28T19:42:52Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese.pdf: 917520 bytes, checksum: cfa05ebb1d37a4a617f387942ee05a15 (MD5)<br>Approved for entry into archive by GILSON ROCHA MIRANDA (gilson.miranda@fgv.br) on 2018-01-15T18:46:52Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese.pdf: 917520 bytes, checksum: cfa05ebb1d37a4a617f387942ee05a15 (MD5)<br>Made available in DSpace on 2018-01-16T19:08:33Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese.pdf: 917520 bytes, checksum: cfa05ebb1d37a4a617f387942ee05a15 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-07-28<br>This doctoral thesis is co
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17

Nybrant, Arvid, and Henrik Rundberg. "Predicting Uncertainty in Financial Markets : -An empirical study on ARCH-class models ability to estimate Value at Risk." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Statistiska institutionen, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-352381.

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Value at Risk has over the last couple of decades become one of the most widely used measures of market risk. Several methods to compute this measure have been suggested. In this paper, we evaluate the use of the GARCH(1,1)-, EGARCH(1,1)- and the APARCH(1,1) model for estimation of this measure under the assumption that the conditional error distribution is normally-, t-, skewed t- and NIG-distributed respectively. For each model, the 95% and 99% one-day Value at Risk is computed using rolling out-of-sample forecasts for three equity indices. These forecasts are evaluated with Kupiec´s test fo
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18

Olson, Erik Davin. "Conceptual Design and Technical Risk Analysis of Quiet Commercial Aircraft Using Physics-Based Noise Analysis Methods." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/11486.

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An approach was developed which allows for design studies of commercial aircraft using physics-based noise analysis methods while retaining the ability to perform the rapid tradeoff and risk analysis studies needed at the conceptual design stage. A prototype integrated analysis process was created for computing the total aircraft EPNL at the Federal Aviation Regulations Part 36 certification measurement locations using physics-based methods for fan rotor-stator interaction tones and jet mixing noise. The analysis process was then used in combination with design of experiments to create respo
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19

Moon, Hyeun Jun. "Assessing Mold Risks in Buildings under Uncertainty." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/7279.

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Microbial growth is a major cause of Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) problems. The implications of mold growth range from unacceptable musty smells and defacement of interior finishes, to structural damage and adverse health effects, not to mention lengthy litigation processes. Mold is likely to occur when a favorable combination of humidity, temperature, and substrate nutrient are maintained long enough. As many modern buildings use products that increase the likelihood of molds (e.g., paper and wood based products), reported cases have increased in recent years. Despite decades of intensive researc
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20

Gröhn, John Henrik, and Stefan Eriksson. "Jorden runt på fyra företag : En studie om hur rädsla för misslyckande påverkar internationaliseringsbeslut." Thesis, Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för organisation och entreprenörskap (OE), 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-45723.

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The fear of failure is something most people encounter on a daily basis and a common acceptance is; the more at stake, the harder is the process to make the right decision.This study examines how the variable “fear of failure” affects a strategic decision toexpand abroad. The study is based on a qualitative method and four CEOs of internationalized companies have been interviewed. Positivistic and deductive approaches are applied. Among the four companies risks was seen as a necessity fordeveloping the organization, but unnecessary risks were avoided. Finally, the study shows that fear affects
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21

Cooksey, Kenneth Daniel. "A portfolio approach to design in the presence of scenario-based uncertainty." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/49036.

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Current aircraft conceptual design practices result in the selection of a single (hopefully) Pareto optimal design to be carried forward into preliminary design. This paradigm is based on the assumption that carrying a significant number of concepts forward is too costly and thus early down-selection between competing concepts is necessary. However, this approach requires that key architectural design decisions which drive performance and market success are fixed very early in the design process, sometimes years before the aircraft actually goes to market. In the presence of uncertainty, if t
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22

Lee, Jae Min. "Households Saving and Reference Dependent Changes in Income and Uncertainty." The Ohio State University, 2014. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1408967943.

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23

Hollender, Julian. "Lévy-Type Processes under Uncertainty and Related Nonlocal Equations." Doctoral thesis, Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2016. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-211795.

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The theoretical study of nonlinear expectations is the focus of attention for applications in a variety of different fields — often with the objective to model systems under incomplete information. Especially in mathematical finance, advances in the theory of sublinear expectations (also referred to as coherent risk measures) lay the theoretical foundation for modern approaches to evaluations under the presence of Knightian uncertainty. In this book, we introduce and study a large class of jump-type processes for sublinear expectations, which can be interpreted as Lévy-type processes under unc
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Smolarski, Jan M. (Jan Mietek). "Environmental Determinants and Choice of Project Evaluation Techniques in US and UK Firms." Thesis, University of North Texas, 1996. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc277767/.

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The purpose of this dissertation is to develop a theory that helps explain the conditions under which firms select certain project evaluation techniques. This study uses contingency theory to analyze the impact of environmental uncertainty on the choice of project evaluation techniques. In addition to a direct measure of uncertainty, several dimensions of uncertainty are included in this study. These dimensions of uncertainty include control structure, method of financing, foreign assets, method of growth, and product domination. This study also analyzes the use of project evaluation, manageme
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Jonsson, Robin. "Optimal Linear Combinations of Portfolios Subject to Estimation Risk." Thesis, Mälardalens högskola, Akademin för utbildning, kultur och kommunikation, 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:mdh:diva-28524.

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The combination of two or more portfolio rules is theoretically convex in return-risk space, which provides for a new class of portfolio rules that gives purpose to the Mean-Variance framework out-of-sample. The author investigates the performance loss from estimation risk between the unconstrained Mean-Variance portfolio and the out-of-sample Global Minimum Variance portfolio. A new two-fund rule is developed in a specific class of combined rules, between the equally weighted portfolio and a mean-variance portfolio with the covariance matrix being estimated by linear shrinkage. The study show
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Nybrant, Arvid. "On Robust Forecast Combinations With Applications to Automated Forecasting." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Statistiska institutionen, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-450807.

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Combining forecasts have been proven as one of the most successful methods to improve predictive performance. However, while there often is a focus on theoretically optimal methods, this is an ill-posed issue in practice where the problem of robustness is of more empirical relevance. This thesis focuses on the latter issue, where the risk associated with different combination methods is examined. The problem is addressed using Monte Carlo experiments and an application to automated forecasting with data from the M4 competition. Overall, our results indicate that the choice of combining methodo
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Beisler, Matthias Werner. "Modelling of input data uncertainty based on random set theory for evaluation of the financial feasibility for hydropower projects." Doctoral thesis, Technische Universitaet Bergakademie Freiberg Universitaetsbibliothek "Georgius Agricola", 2011. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:105-qucosa-71564.

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The design of hydropower projects requires a comprehensive planning process in order to achieve the objective to maximise exploitation of the existing hydropower potential as well as future revenues of the plant. For this purpose and to satisfy approval requirements for a complex hydropower development, it is imperative at planning stage, that the conceptual development contemplates a wide range of influencing design factors and ensures appropriate consideration of all related aspects. Since the majority of technical and economical parameters that are required for detailed and final design can
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Higgins, Paul Anthony. "Reducing uncertainty in new product development." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2008. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/20273/1/Paul_Higgins_Thesis.pdf.

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Research and Development engineering is at the corner stone of humanity’s evolution. It is perceived to be a systematic creative process which ultimately improves the living standard of a society through the creation of new applications and products. The commercial paradigm that governs project selection, resource allocation and market penetration prevails when the focus shifts from pure research to applied research. Furthermore, the road to success through commercialisation is difficult for most inventors, especially in a vast and isolated country such as Australia which is located a long way
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Higgins, Paul Anthony. "Reducing uncertainty in new product development." Queensland University of Technology, 2008. http://eprints.qut.edu.au/20273/.

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Research and Development engineering is at the corner stone of humanity’s evolution. It is perceived to be a systematic creative process which ultimately improves the living standard of a society through the creation of new applications and products. The commercial paradigm that governs project selection, resource allocation and market penetration prevails when the focus shifts from pure research to applied research. Furthermore, the road to success through commercialisation is difficult for most inventors, especially in a vast and isolated country such as Australia which is located a long way
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Bosco, Estevão 1983. "Ulrick Beck = a teoria da sociedade de risco mundial." [s.n.], 2011. http://repositorio.unicamp.br/jspui/handle/REPOSIP/278753.

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Orientador: Leila da Costa Ferreira<br>Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Filosofia e Ciências Humanas<br>Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-18T09:50:37Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Bosco_Estevao_M.pdf: 1064536 bytes, checksum: 6932d843d823c854b8aeca8199aa9cd9 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011<br>Resumo: O primeiro objetivo consiste em compreender e interpretar a teoria da sociedade de risco mundial elaborada por Ulrich Beck, de modo a deslindar os aspectos-chave que lhe permitem a caracterização de teoria. A definição desse objetivo como problema justifi
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Xavier, Alexandre Monticuco. "Analise do valor da informação na avaliação e desenvolvimento de campos de petroleo." [s.n.], 2004. http://repositorio.unicamp.br/jspui/handle/REPOSIP/263720.

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Orientador: Denis Jose Schiozer<br>Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Mecanica, Instituto de Geociencias<br>Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-04T14:56:10Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Xavier_AlexandreMonticuco_M.pdf: 1314652 bytes, checksum: f1d19635e80ee2c542dd65483505cb25 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2004<br>Resumo: A capacidade de lidar com incertezas pode ser um fator decisivo para viabilizar projetos de avaliação e desenvolvimento de campos de petróleo. Um critério econômico utilizado em processos de tomada de decisões é o valor da informa
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Combier, Robert. "Risk-informed scenario-based technology and manufacturing evaluation of aircraft systems." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/49046.

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In the last half century, the aerospace industry has seen a dramatic paradigm shift from a focus on performance-at-any-cost to product economics and value. The steady increase in product requirements, complexity and global competition has driven aircraft manufacturers to seek broad portfolios of advanced technologies. The development costs and cycle times of these technologies vary widely, and the resulting design environment is one where decisions must be made under substantial uncertainty. Modeling and simulation have recently become the standard practice for addressing these issues; detaile
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Ozyurt, Gulizar. "Fuzzy Vulnerability Assessment Model Of Coastal Areas To Sea Level Rise." Phd thesis, METU, 2010. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12612653/index.pdf.

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Climate change and anticipated impacts of sea level rise such as increased coastal erosion, inundation, flooding due to storm surges and salt water intrusion to freshwater resources will affect all the countries but mostly small island countries of oceans and low-lying lands along coastlines. Turkey having 8333 km of coastline including physically, ecologically and socio-economically important low-lying deltas should also prepare for the impacts of sea level rise as well as other impacts of climate change while participating in adaptation and mitigation efforts. Thus, a coastal vulnerability a
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Pekkinen, L. (Leena). "Information processing view on collaborative risk management practices in project networks." Doctoral thesis, Oulun yliopisto, 2015. http://urn.fi/urn:isbn:9789526210162.

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Abstract Large engineering projects are executed by a network of heterogeneous organisations. In order to be effective, risk management in large engineering projects needs to take the perspective of the entire project network instead of focusing on risk management practices of single actors. Contextual factors such as complexity of the project network and the challenging institutional environment pose additional challenges to risk management. The purpose of this study is to increase the understanding of the sources of risks in engineering project networks and the role of risk sources in determ
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Jonsson, Fredrik. "Physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling in risk assessment - Development of Bayesian population methods." Doctoral thesis, Solna : National Institute for Working Life (Arbetslivsinstitutet), 2001. http://publications.uu.se/theses/91-7045-599-6/.

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Toret, Jean-Baptiste. "Traitement ordinal de l'information d'expertise pour le risque en génie civil : apport des sciences de la décision à la gestion des risques." Thesis, Paris 1, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014PA010012/document.

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Lorsque des systèmes, tels les barrages, sont soumis à un haut degré d’incertitude et que l’heuristique des experts prend une place très importante, les outils habituels de gestion des risques ne sont pas toujours efficaces pour rendre compte du jugement des experts. Les sciences de la décision proposent alors des outils pour aider à la compréhension, voire à l’élicitation de l’avis des experts. Dans le cas des barrages, nous disposons d’un retour d’expérience encore peu formalisé et de peu d’événements significatifs. En outre, les mécanismes phénoménologiques à l’œuvre sont mal connus. Il est
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37

Arnold, Patrick. "Probabilistic modelling of unsaturated slope stability accounting for heterogeneity." Thesis, University of Manchester, 2017. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/probabilistic-modelling-of-unsaturated-slope-stability-accounting-for-heterogeneity(fb3d214c-8a42-4a2c-81c2-bda45e9ae7af).html.

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The performance and safety assessment of geo-structures is strongly affected by uncertainty; that is, both due a subjective lack of knowledge as well as objectively present and irreducible unknowns. Due to uncertainty in the non-linear variation of the matric suction induced effective stress as a function of the transient soil-atmosphere boundary conditions, the unsaturated state of the subsoil is generally not accounted for in a deterministic slope stability assessment. Probability theory, accounting for uncertainties quantitatively rather than using "cautious estimates" on loads and resistan
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Coelho, Alexandre Avelar. "Um indicador do valor da informação sismica em projetos de exploração de petroleo." [s.n.], 2004. http://repositorio.unicamp.br/jspui/handle/REPOSIP/265524.

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Orientador: Saul Barisnik Suslick<br>Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Engenharia Mecanica e Instituto de Geociencias<br>Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-12T15:51:45Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Coelho_AlexandreAvelar_M.pdf: 28812155 bytes, checksum: 29b3bc8596d1657465b5fc0dc96c3f9e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2004<br>Resumo: A priorização de oportunidades exploratórias é de fundamental importância na indústria do petróleo devido à elevada quantidade de projetos e ao orçamento limitado das empresas. A valoração de cada projeto depende das estimativas de volume e de ocorrên
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Silva, Fernando César Nimer Moreira da. "Venture capital: valor da informação, riscos e instrumentos para sua mitigação." Universidade de São Paulo, 2014. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/2/2132/tde-20012015-162731/.

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Venture capital é espécie de empreendimento que vincula dois agentes econômicos, empreendedor e investidor, visando ao desenvolvimento de uma ideia inovadora para posterior comercialização no mercado. O empreendedor é detentor de conhecimento sobre a ideia e o investidor possui os recursos para desenvolver o projeto. O negócio se diferencia dos demais pelo alto grau de incerteza e risco do empreendimento e requer o uso de tipos contratuais adequados para sua limitação. O projeto se inicia com a etapa de contratação, na qual as partes negociam a divisão de riscos e retorno do negócio, seguindo-
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Fayard, Nicolas. "Capability approach inspired tools for aiding policy design." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Université Paris sciences et lettres, 2024. http://www.theses.fr/2024UPSLD043.

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Cette thèse explore l'application de l'Approche par les Capabilités (CA) dans les cadres d'aide à la décision, avec un accent particulier sur la conception des politiques publiques.La CA est présentée comme une alternative aux mesures traditionnelles de bien-être, offrant un cadre multidimensionnel qui prend en compte la diversité et la subjectivité.Nous proposons une amélioration de l'approche en intégrant des facteurs systémiques à travers la programmation linéaire, obtenant ainsi des ensembles de capabilités sous forme de frontières de Pareto.Une étude de faisabilité a été développée en app
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Loukoianova, Elena. "Risk, uncertainty, and fiscal institutions." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2004. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.616105.

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Zheng, Esther Zhi Hong. "Gestão de incertezas em projetos complexos: quadro conceitual e estudos de caso." Universidade de São Paulo, 2016. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/3/3136/tde-07122016-084613/.

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As metodologias tradicionais de gerenciamento de projetos são caracterizadas como sendo rígidas e adequadas apenas para ambientes de pouca incerteza. No entanto, atualmente cada vez mais projetos são desenvolvidos em ambientes de alta complexidade e maiores incertezas, o que requer formas diferentes de gerenciamento do projeto, menos rígidas e mais flexíveis. Assim, o objetivo deste trabalho é propor um quadro conceitual para o gerenciamento de incertezas em projetos complexos. A abordagem metodológica mescla revisão sistemática da literatura e estudos de caso. O quadro conceitual desenvolvido
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Mahamud, Abdirahman, Abdimajid Khayre, and Paula Bergholm. "Management of project failures in the gaming industry : The normalization approach." Thesis, Internationella Handelshögskolan, Högskolan i Jönköping, IHH, Företagsekonomi, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-44190.

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In creative industries such as the gaming industry, the failure rate is typically higher in relation to many other industries. This is usually due to the constant need of innovation and the extreme competition in the industry of gaming. Firms in this industry take on multiple innovation projects, which inherently have a high rate of failure. Literature has previously stressed and focused on the importance of failure and how it can enhance learning that can be a crucial asset for any organization. However, failure brings along negative emotions that can slow down or block the learning process o
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Clausen, Mork Jonas. "Dealing with uncertainty." Doctoral thesis, KTH, Filosofi, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-72680.

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Uncertainty is, it seems, more or less constantly present in our lives. Even so, grasping the concept philosophically is far from trivial. In this doctoral thesis, uncertainty and its conceptual companion information are studied. Axiomatic analyses are provided and numerical measures suggested. In addition to these basic conceptual analyses, the widespread practice of so-called safety factor use in societal regulation is analyzed along with the interplay between science and policy in European regulation of chemicals and construction.<br>QC 20120202
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Filipsson, Monika. "Uncertainty, variability and environmental risk analysis." Doctoral thesis, Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för naturvetenskap, NV, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-11193.

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The negative effects of hazardous substances and possible measures that can be taken are evaluated in the environmental risk analysis process, consisting of risk assessment, risk communication and risk management. Uncertainty due to lack of knowledge and natural variability are always present in this process. The aim of this thesis is to evaluate some tools as well as discuss the management of uncertainty and variability, as it is necessary to treat them both in a reliable and transparent way to gain regulatory acceptance in decision making. The catalytic effects of various metals on the forma
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Johnson, David G. "Representations of uncertainty in risk analysis." Thesis, Loughborough University, 1998. https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/31941.

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Uncertainty in situations involving risk is frequently modelled by assuming a plausible form of probability distribution for the uncertain quantities involved, and estimating the relevant parameters of that distribution based on the knowledge and judgement of informed experts or decision makers. The distributions assumed are usually uni-modal (and often bell-shaped) around some most likely value, with the Normal, Beta, Gamma and Triangular distributions being popular choices.
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Gallagher, Raymond. "Uncertainty modelling in quantitative risk analysis." Thesis, University of Liverpool, 2001. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.367676.

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Werner, Jana. "Risk and uncertainty in project management." Thesis, Heriot-Watt University, 2009. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.525618.

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Hantzsche, Arno. "Fiscal uncertainty and sovereign credit risk." Thesis, University of Nottingham, 2018. http://eprints.nottingham.ac.uk/49976/.

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This doctoral thesis studies sovereign credit risk during periods of uncertainty about the state of a government's fiscal position. A new measure of fiscal uncertainty is introduced, based on the disagreement in official forecasts of the public budget deficit, and forecast revisions to approximate common uncertainty shocks. It is shown that in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, fiscal uncertainty increased substantially in advanced economies. The effects of fiscal uncertainty are largely unknown, in particular in the context of sovereign credit risk. To estimate the response of sove
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Krüger, Niclas. "Infrastructure investment planning under uncertainty /." Örebro : Örebro University, 2009. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-6618.

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