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Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Risk Base Decision »

Auteur : Grafiati
Publié le 1 avril 2023

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Articles de revues sur le sujet "Risk Base Decision"

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Antsiferova, A. A., V. A. Demin, Vladimir F. Demin et V. Yu Soloviev. « CONCEPT OF TECHNOGENIC RISK MANAGEMENT ». Hygiene and sanitation 96, no 8 (27 mars 2019) : 780–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.18821/0016-9900-2017-96-8-780-785.

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There are proposed conceptual positions and levels of decision-making on provision of the safety, social and medical protection of the human on the base of the assessment, analysis and risk management in different areas of human activity in normal and emergency conditions under the exposure to man-made and some natural hazard sources. At the base of developed applications there is a unified approach to the development and use of modern risk assessment methodology: the elaboration of a common method of the risk assessment and, basing on it, specific and simplified methods for concrete sources of hazard impact. This structure of methodological bases of risk assessment, in its full development makes it more transparent and comparable as well specific methods, as the support of decision-making on protective and other measures from different sources of danger. There were formulated proposals for universal safety standards (SSs) and other levels of decision-making on safety, social and medical protection of the population and staff of hazardous industries, including acceptable levels of risk. For the establishment of SSs and other decision-making levels, a special risk index is used: the relative damage (ratio of years of life lost to a year of stay-at-risk). This index is most appropriate for evaluation, comparison and management of risk, especially in conditions of two or more acting danger sources. On the base of universal SSs there are developed branch main SSs for certain isolated sources of danger. They are expressed in those indices (specific risk indices or impact indices in their different definitions), which by now are widely used in the practice or will be chosen for practical use in the future. In the ensuring human safety in normal conditions, the main use of the risk assessment is the development and support of SSs and other levels of decision-making. In emergencies the specific risk assessment besides to the establishment the decision-making levels is essentially needed to make justified optimal decisions on the measures of social and medical protection of the population and professionals.
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Sim, Hock Kheng, et Zhi Xin Wong. « Fuzzy Decision Tree Approach for Optimal Supplier Base ». Applied Mechanics and Materials 315 (avril 2013) : 283–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.315.283.

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Minimizing supplier base allows better supplier relationship management, but any supplier failure will interrupt the supplies chain. Earth quake in Fukushima, Japan and flood in Bangkok, Thailand, caused supply chain breakdown and affect the global production. Decision tree method is recommended to determine optimal number of supplier in supplier base with the risk of supplier failure. This paper presented an approach to integrate fuzzy logic in decision tree approach by rating the supplier risk in linguistic terms for imperfect environment. Numerical example and sensitivity are carried out and presented, and optimal supplier base was identified.
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Harris, Grant T., et Marnie E. Rice. « Characterizing the Value of Actuarial Violence Risk Assessments ». Criminal Justice and Behavior 34, no 12 (décembre 2007) : 1638–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0093854807307029.

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Using the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide, relative operating characteristic (ROC) statistics are exemplified. Criticisms of actuarials and ROCs as measures of accuracy are discussed—ROC statistics are independent of base rates, but optimal decisions are not. Using sex offenders, the importance of accurate base rate information in the relevant population is examined. Although Bayes affords estimates of posterior probabilities for any base rate, Bayesian corrections can be too extreme in practice. This article illustrates that undesirable posterior probabilities are improved by superior selection ratios and refutes the criticism that “confidence intervals around individual scores” are so large as to make actuarial assessment meaningless. Personal values play a role in forensic decision making, and actuarial methods sharpen the focus on such values.
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Thompson, Matthew P., Yu Wei, David E. Calkin, Christopher D. O’Connor, Christopher J. Dunn, Nathaniel M. Anderson et John S. Hogland. « Risk Management and Analytics in Wildfire Response ». Current Forestry Reports 5, no 4 (20 novembre 2019) : 226–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40725-019-00101-7.

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Abstract Purpose of Review The objectives of this paper are to briefly review basic risk management and analytics concepts, describe their nexus in relation to wildfire response, demonstrate real-world application of analytics to support response decisions and organizational learning, and outline an analytics strategy for the future. Recent Findings Analytics can improve decision-making and organizational performance across a variety of areas from sports to business to real-time emergency response. A lack of robust descriptive analytics on wildfire incident response effectiveness is a bottleneck for developing operationally relevant and empirically credible predictive and prescriptive analytics to inform and guide strategic response decisions. Capitalizing on technology such as automated resource tracking and machine learning algorithms can help bridge gaps between monitoring, learning, and data-driven decision-making. Summary By investing in better collection, documentation, archiving, and analysis of operational data on response effectiveness, fire management organizations can promote systematic learning and provide a better evidence base to support response decisions. We describe an analytics management framework that can provide structure to help deploy analytics within organizations, and provide real-world examples of advanced fire analytics applied in the USA. To fully capitalize on the potential of analytics, organizations may need to catalyze cultural shifts that cultivate stronger appreciation for data-driven decision processes, and develop informed skeptics that effectively balance both judgment and analysis in decision-making.
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Nelson, Robert C. « Drug Safety, Pharmacoepidemiology, and Regulatory Decision Making ». Drug Intelligence & ; Clinical Pharmacy 22, no 4 (avril 1988) : 336–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/106002808802200419.

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The safety or risk assessment of a pharmacotherapeutic agent begins early in its development and continues throughout its use cycle. The practice of pharmacoepidemiology is the art of using the sciences and the tools of science to generate information about pharmaceutical outcomes, including associated risks, in the postmarketing environment. A pharmacoepidemiologist must be capable of functioning with a matrix constructed of three components: a knowledge base, a conceptual framework, and an interpretive framework. From this perspective one can establish surveillance schemes, or understand a posed research question, select strategies, apply methodologies, and interpret the results of purposeful investigations. When conveyed to the risk manager, appropriately interpreted results of a properly conducted risk assessment can be used in regulatory decision making. Seven case studies are presented as examples of this approach.
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Brady, Michael E., et Howard B. Lee. « Is There an Allais Paradox ? A Note on its Resolution ». Psychological Reports 64, no 3_suppl (juin 1989) : 1223–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.2466/pr0.1989.64.3c.1223.

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If a decision maker uses J. M. Keynes' “conventional coefficient of risk and weight” in making decisions under conditions of risk and/or uncertainty, then a consistent pattern of ranked outcome results is not paradoxical as proposed by Allais. Similarly, the paradoxical aspects of the “reflection effect” in Kahneman and Tversky's Prospect Theory analysis of the Allais' paradox, also vanishes. The Allais Paradox can only exist when probabilities are used in a decision-making process without a measure of confidence. By incorporating an information base for calculated probabilities the Allais Paradox results are rendered nonparadoxical.
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Rajagopal, Sandhya, et Aengus Kelly. « Shared Decision Making in Endodontics ». Primary Dental Journal 9, no 4 (23 novembre 2020) : 31–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2050168420963303.

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Engaging patients in shared decision making (SDM) is a professional requirement since the Montgomery ruling in 2015. Endodontic treatments present a specific challenge to achieving SDM, both for the clinician and the patient. The treatments are often perceived as more challenging to complete by the clinician, and the assessment of risk and likely outcome requires a deep understanding of the (limited) evidence base. For the patient, decisions can be required at a time of acute symptoms and prolonged treatments. There are health literacy demands in comparison to some less complex dental treatments. Treatment decisions may be based more on inherent biases and prior experiences than objective probabilities. This article discusses options and supports effective shared decision making in endodontic treatment.
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Johansson, Cristina, Johan Ölvander et Micael Derelöv. « Multi-objective optimization for safety and reliability trade-off : Optimization and results processing ». Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O : Journal of Risk and Reliability 232, no 6 (26 février 2018) : 661–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1748006x18757075.

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In early design phases, it is vital to be able to screen the design space for a set of promising design alternatives for further study. This article presents a method able to balance several objectives of different mathematical natures, with high impact on the design choices. The method (MOSART) handles multi-objective optimization for safety and reliability trade-offs. The article focuses on optimization problem approach and processing of results as a base for decision-making. The output of the optimization step is the selection of specific system elements obtaining the best balance between the targets. However, what is a good base for decision can easily transform into too much information and overloading of the decision-maker. To solve this potential issue, from a set of Pareto optimal solutions, a smaller sub-set of selected solutions are visualized and filtered out using preference levels of the objectives, yielding a solid base for decision-making and valuable information on potential solutions. Trends were observed regarding each system element and discussed while processing the results of the analysis, supporting the decision of one final best solution.
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Travers, R., et A. Kumar. « Structured clinical decision making : Is it different ? » European Psychiatry 26, S2 (mars 2011) : 788. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0924-9338(11)72493-2.

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IntroductionThe Psychiatrists are called to assess the level of risk in violent and sex offenders’ population. There are differing perceptions about formalising the severity and management of risk. The proponents of actuarial decision making propose that it is scientific and evidence based approach. The advocates of professional judgment however think that actuarial tools usually miss out on the interplay of compounding factors and can under or over estimate the level of risk.ObjectivesTo review consecutive patient assessments and qualitatively compare it with HCR-20 and RSVP tools for violent and sex offending patients.AimsTo report the difference in outcome in the domains of overall severity of risk, risk formulation and clinical decision making for management of the risk in these patient groups.MethodsWe aim to compare twenty consecutive patients where professional judgment of the clinician determined the severity of the risk, risk formulation and management. We then aim to use the information available to check for any differences in these areas when HCR-20 and RSVP are employed.ResultsThe comparison and benefits of professional judgment and actuarial decision making are reported.ConclusionsThe professionals (providers) are being increasingly compelled by commissioners(purchasers) to evidence base their clinical decision making. The professional judgments are more likely to be challenged in the courts. People are easily impressed by decisions which are evidence based though they may have limited understanding of research environment and population studied.
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Acula, Donata D. « Classification of Disaster Risks in the Philippines using Adaptive Boosting Algorithm with Decision Trees and Support Vector Machine as Based Estimators ». Journal of Modeling and Simulation of Materials 4, no 1 (3 juin 2021) : 7–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.21467/jmsm.4.1.7-18.

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This paper employed the intelligent approach based on machine learning categorized as base and ensemble methods in classifying the disaster risk in the Philippines. It focused on the Decision Trees, Support Vector Machine, Adaptive Boosting Algorithm with Decision Trees, and Support Vector Machine as base estimators. The research used the Exponential Regression for missing value imputation and converted the number of casualties, damaged houses, and properties into five (5) risk levels using Quantile Method. The 10-fold cross-validation was used to validate the proposed algorithms. The experiment shows that Decision Trees and Adaptive Decision Trees are the most suitable models for the disaster data with the score of more than 90%, more than 75%, more than 75% in all the classification metrics (accuracy, precision, recall f1-score) when applied to classification risk levels of casualties, damaged houses and damaged properties respectively.
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Thèses sur le sujet "Risk Base Decision"

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Mello, Bernardo Brazão Rego. « Classificação de risco setorial com base nos métodos Weighted Influence Non-linear Gauge System e Analytic Hierarchy Process ». reponame:Biblioteca Digital do Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social, 2014. http://web.bndes.gov.br/bib/jspui/handle/1408/5341.

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Bibliografia: p. 46-48
Dissertação (mestrado) - Faculdade de Economia e Finanças Ibmec, Rio de Janeiro, 2014.
Devido à crescente importância dos mercados financeiros nas últimas décadas, o risco de crédito tem se tornado um tema fundamental na tomada de decisões acerca de investimentos, taxas de financiamento, solvência corporativa, tendência e perspectivas etc. Os modelos de avaliação de risco de crédito, em geral, podem ser classificados em duas categorias: quantitativo e qualitativo. Modelos quantitativos buscam analisar informações de demonstrativos financeiros e seus indicadores, enquanto modelos qualitativos focam na análise de variáveis intangíveis que afetam os negócios globais. Estes modelos normalmente seguem uma estrutura "top-down" de análise setorial, competitividade e comparação de pares e gestão. O objetivo desta dissertação é apresentar um modelo de classificação de risco setorial com base em métodos de análise multicritério que possam mensurar a importância das variáveis que afetam os setores da economia brasileira, bem como a influência entre estas. O modelo é baseado, principalmente, no método Weighted Influence Non-Linear Gauge System. Acerca dos julgamentos sobre as variáveis, o modelo baseia-se na utilização do método Analytic Hierarchy Process. O resultado do modelo é apresentado através de níveis de risco, aplicado a quatorze setores da economia brasileira. A dissertação se encerra com uma discussão sobre os resultados, bem como com um esboço do direcionamento para futuras pesquisas.
Due to the increasing importance of the financial market over the past decades, credit risk has become a paramount issue in investment, loan spreads, corporate solvency, trends and prospetcs, etc. Credit risk evaluation models may be classified in two broad categories: quantitative and qualitative. Quantitative models seek to analyze information from financial statement and indexes, while qualitative models focus on the analysis of intangible variables that affect global business. These models typically follow a top-down approach by analyzing the industry risk, competitiveness and peer comparison and management. The aim of this thesis is to present an industry risk assessment model based on multicriteria analysis methods that can measure the strengh of variables that affect the industries of Brazilian economy, as well as the influence between them. The model is based primarily on the Weighted Influence Non-Linear Gauge System method. Concerning human judgements about the variables, the model is founded on the use of the Analytic Hierarchy Process method. The result from the model is presented through risk levels, applied to fourteen industries in the Brazilian economy. The thesis closes with a discussion of results, as well as with an outline to future research directions.
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Hansen, Richard L. « Risk-based fire research decision methodology ». Link to electronic version, 1999. http://www.wpi.edu/Pubs/ETD/Available/etd-051399-154048/unrestricted/thesis.pdf.

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St, Onge Jennifer Rose. « Dopaminergic modulation of risk-based decision making ». Thesis, University of British Columbia, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/1313.

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Psychopharmacological studies have implicated the mesolimbic dopamine (DA) system in the mediation of cost/benefit evaluations about effort-related costs associated with larger rewards. However, the role of DA in risk-based decision making remains relatively unexplored. The present study investigated how systemic manipulations of DA transmission affect risky choice assessed with a probabilistic discounting task. Over discrete trials, rats between two levers; a press on the “small/certain” lever always delivered one reward pellet, whereas a press on the other, “large/risky” lever delivered four pellets, but the probability of receiving reward decreased across the four trial blocks (100%, 50%, 25%, 12.5%). In separate groups of well-trained rats we assessed the effects of the DA releaser amphetamine, as well as receptor selective agonists and antagonists. Amphetamine consistently increased preference for the large/risky lever; an effect that was blocked or attenuated by co-administration of either D₁ (SCH23390) or D₂ (eticlopride) receptors antagonists. Blockade of either of these receptors alone induced risk aversion. Conversely, stimulation of D₁ (SKF81297) or D₂ (bromocriptine) receptors also increased risky choice. In contrast, activation of D₃ receptors with PD128,907 induced risk aversion. Likewise, D₃ antagonism with nafadotride potentiated the amphetamine-induced increase in risky choice. Blockade or stimulation of D₄ receptors did not reliably alter patterns of choice. These findings indicate that DA plays a critical role in mediating risk-based decision making, where increased activation of D₁ and D₂ receptors biases choice towards larger, probabilistic rewards, whereas D₃ receptors appear to exert opposing effects on this form of decision making.
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Samson, Sundeep. « Performance based decisions under uncertainty and risk ». Connect to this title online, 2008. http://etd.lib.clemson.edu/documents/1219855032/.

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Abdel, Moteleb Moustafa. « Risk Based Decision Making Tools for Sewer Infrastructure Management ». University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2010. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1282051778.

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Diaz, Michelle Chandler. « Risk identification and assessment in a risk based audit environment : the effects of budget constraints and decision aid use ». Diss., Texas A&M University, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/4363.

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Risk based audit (RBA) approaches represent a major trend in current audit methodology. The approach is based on risk analysis used to identify business strategy risk. The RBA has created a new set of research issues that need investigation. In particular, this approach has important implications for risk identification and risk assessment. The success of the RBA approach is contingent on understanding what factors improve or interfere with the accuracy of these risk judgments. I examine how budget constraints and decision aid use affect risk identification and risk assessment. Unlike previous budget pressure studies, I cast budget constraints as a positive influence on auditors. I expect more stringent budget constraints to be motivating to the auditor as they provide a goal for the auditor to achieve. I also expect budget constraints to induce feelings of pressure leading to the use of time-pressure adaptation strategies. When auditors have use of a decision aid, they take advantage of these motivational goals and/or use beneficial adaptive strategies. Overall, I find that auditor participants tend to be more accurate when identifying financial statement risks compared to business risks. Budget constraints have no effect on risk identification for financial or business risks; they also have no effect on financial risk assessments. On the other hand, business risk assessments are improved by implementing more stringent budget constraints, but only when a decision aid is also provided. Budget constraints can affect performance through a goal theory route or a time-pressure adaptation route. I investigate the paths through which budget constraints improve business risk assessments under decision aid use. I find that budget constraints directly affect performance, supporting a goal theory route. However, I do not find that budget constraints are mediated by perceived budget pressure as expected. Auditors appear to use a positive adaptive strategy to respond to perceived budget pressure, however perceived budget pressure is not induced by providing a more stringent budget.
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Lampi, Elina. « Individual preferences, choices, and risk perceptions - survey based evidence / ». Göteborg : University of Gothenburg, 2008. http://catalog.hathitrust.org/api/volumes/oclc/235948582.html.

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Brown, Andrew B. « The Relationship of Expected Value-based Risky Decision Making Tasks to Attitudes Toward Various Kinds of Risks ». University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2011. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1304448647.

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Sheykhi, Reza. « Risk-Based Decision Making Support for Construction Corporate Resource Management ». FIU Digital Commons, 2016. http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/3039.

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Competitive bidding typically challenges contractors to stay in business by reducing contingency and limiting profit margin, which imposes more prudent resource utilization and allocation decisions during both planning and construction phases of projects. Many of these decisions must be made considering uncertainties that affect resource production and construction performance through several factors such as weather, managerial practices, job-type, and market conditions, etc. Construction decision makers will therefore have varied approaches to deal with these uncertainties based on their risk utility or perception. This research presents the development of a model for investigating the impact of risk-based approaches on construction network outcomes. The current study contributes to development of a model that enables corporate managers to understand the impact of different resource utilization and sharing policies on the overall outcome of their project and to select among optimum planning solutions that satisfy their profit margin and capital limitations. This research also enables corporate decision makers to have more realistic estimates for the profitability of their company, and understand consequences of their decisions in short and long term. Findings of this research provide decision makers with different solutions for profitability of their corporation based on non-dominated optimal time-cost trade-offs, and also broader perspective on how overall time and budget limitations, as well as risk perceptions, can affect the decision-making process. The model is verified and the results are validated through acquiring data from actual large scale construction projects in South Florida.
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Jin, Nam-Hee. « A risk-based decision making tool for sustainable bridge management ». Thesis, University of Surrey, 2007. http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/747/.

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Livres sur le sujet "Risk Base Decision"

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Crawford-Brown, Douglas J. Risk-Based Environmental Decisions. Boston, MA : Springer US, 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-5227-7.

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Risk-based environmental decisions : Culture and methods. Boston : Kluwer Academic, 1999.

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Lampi, Elina. Individual preferences, choices, and risk perceptions : Survey based evidence. Göteborg : University of Gothenburg, 2008.

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Marcomini, Antonio, Glenn Walter Suter II et Andrea Critto, dir. Decision Support Systems for Risk-Based Management of Contaminated Sites. Boston, MA : Springer US, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-09722-0.

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Singh, G. Venturer : Micro based appraisal of risk. (Leeds) : SAR Investment Properties, 1985.

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Vamvakas, Eleftherios C. Decision making in transfusion medicine. Bethesda, Md : AABB Press, 2011.

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Betts, Kellyn, et Andrea Hodgson, dir. Advances in Causal Understanding for Human Health Risk-Based Decision-Making. Washington, D.C. : National Academies Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.17226/25004.

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Vamvakas, Eleftherios C. Decision making in transfusion medicine. Bethesda, Md : AABB Press, 2011.

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J, McMillen Sara, Magaw Renae I, Carovillano Rebecca L, United States. Dept. of Energy et Petroleum Environmental Research Forum (U.S.), dir. Risk-based decision-making for assessing petroleum impacts at exploration and production sites. [Washington, D.C.] : U.S. Dept. of Energy, 2001.

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1955-, Shute Stephen, et Wilcox Aidan, dir. The parole system at work : A study of risk based decision-making. [London] : Research, Development and Statistics Directorate, Home Office, 2000.

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Chapitres de livres sur le sujet "Risk Base Decision"

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Crawford-Brown, Douglas J. « Risk, Rationality and Decisions ». Dans Risk-Based Environmental Decisions, 1–38. Boston, MA : Springer US, 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-5227-7_1.

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Crawford-Brown, Douglas J. « The Structure of Environmental Risk Assessments ». Dans Risk-Based Environmental Decisions, 39–68. Boston, MA : Springer US, 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-5227-7_2.

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Crawford-Brown, Douglas J. « Assessing Exposure ». Dans Risk-Based Environmental Decisions, 69–93. Boston, MA : Springer US, 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-5227-7_3.

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Crawford-Brown, Douglas J. « Exposure-Response Assessment ». Dans Risk-Based Environmental Decisions, 95–121. Boston, MA : Springer US, 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-5227-7_4.

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Crawford-Brown, Douglas J. « Regulatory Science : Risk and Decisions ». Dans Risk-Based Environmental Decisions, 123–57. Boston, MA : Springer US, 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-5227-7_5.

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Crawford-Brown, Douglas J. « Uncertainty and Variability Analysis ». Dans Risk-Based Environmental Decisions, 159–89. Boston, MA : Springer US, 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-5227-7_6.

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Crawford-Brown, Douglas J. « Risk, Systems Analysis and Optimization ». Dans Risk-Based Environmental Decisions, 191–218. Boston, MA : Springer US, 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-5227-7_7.

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Spalanzani, Anne, Jorge Rios-Martinez, Christian Laugier et Sukhan Lee. « Risk Based Navigation Decisions ». Dans Handbook of Intelligent Vehicles, 1459–77. London : Springer London, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-0-85729-085-4_56.

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Linkov, Igor, Emily Moberg, Benjamin D. Trump, Boris Yatsalo et Jeffrey M. Keisler. « Risk-Based Classification of Nanomaterials 1 ». Dans Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, 123–31. Second edition. | Boca Raton : CRC Press, 2020. | : CRC Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1201/9780429326448-10.

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Fong, Jeffrey T., James J. Filliben, N. Alan Heckert, Dennis D. Leber, Paul A. Berkman et Robert E. Chapman. « Uncertainty Quantification of Failure Probability and a Dynamic Risk Analysis of Decision-Making for Maintenance of Aging Infrastructure ». Dans Risk Based Technologies, 65–80. Singapore : Springer Singapore, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-5796-1_5.

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Actes de conférences sur le sujet "Risk Base Decision"

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Ezell, Barry C., Mark J. Davis et Michael L. McGinnis. « Designing a Decision Support System for Military Base Camp Site Selection and Facility Layout ». Dans Ninth United Engineering Foundation Conference on Risk-Based Decisionmaking in Water Resources. Reston, VA : American Society of Civil Engineers, 2001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/40577(306)9.

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Dao-ping, Wang, Ai Chun-li Gu et Chun-xiao. « Research on coordinating a dual-channel supply chain base on risk-aversion ». Dans 2016 Chinese Control and Decision Conference (CCDC). IEEE, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/ccdc.2016.7531799.

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Murray, Jake, et Matt Landry. « Building a Risk Based Decision Support System for Midstream Shale Gas Assets ». Dans 2014 10th International Pipeline Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/ipc2014-33052.

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In order to support its goals of zero incidents through risk-based asset management, Access Midstream (Access) requires a solution for providing decision support by modeling integrity threats that indicate potential safety and environmental incidents on all of its pipeline assets. The objective is to tailor existing pipeline risk methods to properly account for the unique conditions inherent to midstream gathering assets while still being flexible enough to account for traditional gas transmission and liquids transportation lines. Access has created a unique risk-based spatial decision support system (RB-SDSS), customized to the needs of a gas gathering company that also owns and operates incidental gas transmission and hazardous liquids pipelines. Access’ business needs call for a comprehensive solution that includes a risk model that can handle a diverse asset base. Most of the company’s pipelines are unregulated, but risk-based management and decision-making are still desired for regulated and non-regulated pipelines alike. Access has designed a decision support system that automatically retrieves and integrates data, estimates risk with directly and indirectly related inputs in its algorithm, and disseminates the data to business users across the enterprise. The processing model is calibrated for risk assessment and is capable of distinguishing between high and low risk lines. It is able to generate results that can be understood and upon which appropriate action can be taken. These results are refreshed monthly as new assets are constructed or purchased and existing asset attributes are updated. Access’ decision support system is repeatable and scalable owing to maximum use of automated processes. The focus of this paper is to outline Access’ approach to building a risk assessment solution for its pipeline assets. Each component of the RB-SDSS is reviewed: (1) Data Integration, (2) Risk Modeling, and (3) Organizational Utilization. This includes strategies for assessing traditional pipeline threats, geospatial techniques used to infer data, how to assess data quality and completeness, challenges, lesson’s learned, and future improvements.
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Zeng, Wei, et Hongxing Yu. « On the Use of Binary Importance Decision for Risk-Informed Categorization of SSCs ». Dans 17th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering. ASMEDC, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/icone17-75071.

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The categorization of Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs) is one of the foundations in the design of the nuclear reactor. The regulation requirements based on the current deterministic categorization are over-conservative in some aspects; on the other hand, some requirements for the nonsafety-related components are too loose. In order to make the requirements reasonable, the risk-informed significance categorization of SSCs has been presented. Risk-informed significance categorization (RISC) is to categorize structures, systems, or components (SSCs) of a nuclear power plant (NPP) into two or more groups, according to their significance using both probabilistic and deterministic insights. The SSCs are quantitatively categorized by their importance measures; Fussell–Vesely (FV) and Risk Achievement Worth (RAW) are widely used. But in conventional methods for the RISC, first, a component will be categorized as significance once the value of FV or RAW is over the thresholds. So the significant components are treated equally regardless of the difference between FV and RAW, that is not suitable. Second, the component RAW derived from the sum or maximum of the basic events is not realistic. Third, the categorization threshold for FV is not uniform, different reactors have the different thresholds. The three key problems will be researched in this paper, the quartered way will be presented base on the discussion about combination of the two importance measures (binary importance decision). And then through transferring the additivity from FV to RAW, the realistic component RAW derived from FV will be got. Finally, according to the relationship between FV and RAW, the threshold for FV will be gained similar to RAW. In the study, the author will use the new method to make a practice on the Daya Bay Nuclear Power Plant, 43% components of the low pressure safety injection system which are safety-related are categorized as low significant; 2.6% components which are nonsafety-related of the auxiliary feed water system are categorized as significant.
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Rahaman, Saifur. « Diabetes diagnosis decision support system based on symptoms, signs and risk factor using special computational algorithm by rule base ». Dans 2012 15th International Conference on Computer and Information Technology (ICCIT). IEEE, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/iccitechn.2012.6509796.

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Petryaeva, Margarita. « SEMANTIC REPRESENTATION OF THE DISEASE KNOWLEDGE FOR A DECISION SUPPORT SERVICE IN CARDIOLOGY ». Dans XIV International Scientific Conference "System Analysis in Medicine". Far Eastern Scientific Center of Physiology and Pathology of Respiration, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/conferencearticle_5fe01d9be1fc59.34271723.

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An information resource for a diagnostic Internet service in the field of cardiology has been formed - a declarative knowledge base of diseases of the cardiovascular system. The knowledge base includes formal descriptions of heart diseases, with possible causes, necessary conditions, risk factors, symptoms and syndromes, and a description of the dynamics of clinical manifestations. Representation of knowledge in the form of a semantic network ensures their development in the process of service operation.
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Beachboard, John, Alma Cole, Mike Mellor, Steve Hernandez, Kregg Aytes et Nelson Massad. « Improving Information Security Risk Analysis Practices for Small- and Medium-Sized Enterprises : A Research ». Dans InSITE 2008 : Informing Science + IT Education Conference. Informing Science Institute, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.28945/3190.

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Despite the availability of numerous methods and publications concerning the proper conduct of information security risk analyses, small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) face serious organizational challenges managing the deployment and use of these tools and methods to assist them in selecting and implementing security safeguards to prevent IS security compromises. This paper builds a case for and then outlines a possible approach and a multi-faceted research agenda for developing an “open development” strategy to address recognized deficiencies in the area of risk analysis to include developing: a multi-level risk assessment methodology and set of decision heuristics designed to minimize the intellectual effort required to conduct SME infrastructure level risk assessments, a set of decision heuristics to assist in the quantification of organizational costs, financial as well as non-financial, a knowledge base of probability estimates associated with specified classes of threats for use in the application of the aforementioned methodology and automated tool(s) capable of supporting the execution of the aforementioned methodology and heuristics.
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Petersen, Flávia Cristina, Antonio Carlos Ramos Junior, Marcello Marques, Hugo Alves Da Silva, Priscilla Regina Dalvi Dos Santos, Lorrainy Toledo Rodrigues, Jorel Lopes Rodrigues dos Anjos, Renato Márcio Dias Russo et Virgílio Martins Ferreira Filho. « Zero Base Budgeting Applied to Oilwell Construction ». Dans Offshore Technology Conference. OTC, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4043/31939-ms.

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Abstract The development of digital transformation tools has significantly increased the amount of available data in recent years. As in all sectors of the economy, the oil industry, with a focus on well construction, was not left out of the process. Numerous data are monitored and stored in real time and several studies are carried out to increase operational performance. However, little has evolved in relation to the knowledge that these data can generate in decision-making processes, such as in the definition of targets that serve as a reference for the planning of interventions. Thus, this article explains a new methodology for defining targets, based on the knowledge of specialists, the concept of zero-based budgeting and risk analysis, with the integration of teams of well designers, reservoirs, and budgeting. The methodology was used in 19 fields’ studies and directly applied to the planning of 5 new projects.
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Ojukwu, Kelechi, Omowumi Iledare, Joseph Ajienka, Adewale Dosunmu et Chidi Ibe. « Estimating Fair Market Value of Petroleum Assets in Nigeria : A Risk-Based Approach ». Dans SPE Nigeria Annual International Conference and Exhibition. SPE, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/207078-ms.

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Abstract Many independent Nigerian oil & gas companies have emerged over the last decade out ofthe divestments of ageing petroleum assets by multinational oil companies. Thesetransactions are marked by pervasive cases of overvaluation and huge gap in offers that leadto unnecessarily high acquisition costs. Petroleum analysts around the world adopt the Discounted Cashflow Analysis method forestimating present value of future oil production revenues. Unfortunately, project economicsusing conventional analysis does not de-risk the reserves components appropriately oraccount for the excess and political risk premiums. Even when analysts derive the NetPresent Value from conventional evaluation, say at discount rates of say 10% or 15%, theyface the dilemma of extracting offer price from that figure. Some post a conservative offerbased on 50% NPV, while others throw in all the NPV in a scheme to win the bid at all cost. Some also start by guesstimating value by rule of thumb and then offer the NPV that is leftbehind. The decision to offer a given percentage of the NPV is entirely subjective and variesamongst investors and as such does not depict a logical perception of market value, or therisks thereof. Furthermore, by omitting political risk, buyers are invariably ignoring the mostcrucial risk of all. The adoption of different bases of reserves tend to compound the problemby yielding NPVs that are few and far between each other. They are usually based on un-risked ‘proved plus probable’ (2P) reserves, which is highly speculative and unrealistic forvaluation. For the first time, the concerns of high purchase price and offer gaps were debuggedleveraging the new Risk-Based Valuation approach which is based on a modified Discounted Cashflow model. A research deeply investigates the problems first by reconstructing originaltransaction to identify the root causes. Furthermore, the study concludes that buyers arepaying on average 4 times the value and that regulating reserves base is fundamental inorder to minimize offer gaps that sometimes tend to a billion dollars for large deals. Thus, the Risk-Based Discounted Cashflow Analysis technique can help prevent overpricing orunderpricing of Nigerian assets, minimize offer gaps in the market as well as account for theimpact of political risks (or its mitigation) in valuation.
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Hassanien, Sherif, Doug Langer et Mona Abdolrazaghi. « Integrity Risk-Informed Decision Making ». Dans 2018 12th International Pipeline Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/ipc2018-78149.

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Over the last three decades, safety-critical industries (e.g. Nuclear, Aviation) have witnessed an evolution from risk-based to risk-informed safety management approaches, in which quantitative risk assessment is only one component of the decision making process. While the oil and gas pipeline industry has recently made several advancements towards safety management processes, their safety performance may still be seen to fall below the expected level achieved by other safety-critical industries. The intent of this paper is to focus on the safety decision making process within pipeline integrity management systems. Pipeline integrity rules, routines, and procedures are commonly based on regulatory requirements, industry best practices, and engineering experience; where they form “programmed” decisions. Non-programmed safety and business decisions are unique and “usually” unstructured, where solutions are worked out as problems arise. Non-programmed decision making requires more activities towards defining decision alternatives and mutual adjustment by stakeholders in order to reach an optimal decision. Theoretically, operators are expected to be at a maturity level where programmed decisions are ready for most, if not all, of their operational problems. However, such expectations might only cover certain types of threats and integrity situations. Herein, a formal framework for non-programmed integrity decisions is introduced. Two common decision making frameworks; namely, risk-based and risk-informed are briefly discussed. In addition, the paper reviews the recent advances in nuclear industry in terms of decision making, introduces a combined technical and management decision making process called integrity risk-informed decision making (IRIDM), and presents a guideline for making integrity decisions.
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Rapports d'organisations sur le sujet "Risk Base Decision"

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Hobbs, T. E., J. M. Journeay, A. S. Rao, L. Martins, P. LeSueur, M. Kolaj, M. Simionato et al. Scientific basis of Canada's first public national seismic risk model. Natural Resources Canada/CMSS/Information Management, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4095/330927.

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Natural Resources Canada, in partnership with the Global Earthquake Model Foundation, has prepared a public Canadian Seismic Risk Model to support disaster risk reduction efforts across industry and all levels of government, and to aid in Canada's adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. Developing this model has involved the creation of a national exposure inventory, Canadian specific fragility and vulnerability curves, and adjustment of the Canadian Seismic Hazard Model which forms the basis for the seismic provisions of the National Building Code of Canada. Using the Global Earthquake Model Foundation's OpenQuake Engine (OQ), risk modelling is completed using both deterministic and probabilistic risk calculations, under baseline and simulated retrofit conditions. Output results are available in all settled regions of Canada, at the scale of a neighbourhood or smaller. We report on expected shaking damage to buildings, financial losses, fatalities, and other impacts such as housing disruption and the generation of debris. This paper documents the technical details of the modelling approach including a description of novel datasets in use, as well as preliminary results for a magnitude 9.0 earthquake on the Cascadia megathrust and nation-wide 500 year expected probabilistic losses. These kinds of results, such as earthquake scenario impacts, loss exceedance curves, and annual average losses, provide a quantitative base of evidence for decision making at local, regional, and national levels.
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Roberts, Barney, Clayton Smith et David Frost. Risk-Based Decision Support Techniques for Programs and Projects. Fort Belvoir, VA : Defense Technical Information Center, janvier 2003. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada423518.

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Lemaster, Michelle Nicole, David M. Gay, Mark Andrew Ehlen, Paul T. Boggs et Jaideep Ray. Risk-based decision making for staggered bioterrorist attacks : resource allocation and risk reduction in "reload" scenarios. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), octobre 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/993625.

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Alt, Jonathan, Willie Brown, George Gallarno, John Richards et Titus Rice. Risk-based prioritization of operational condition assessments : Jennings Randolph case study. Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.), avril 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/43862.

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The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) operates, maintains, and manages over $232 billion worth of the Nation’s water resource infrastructure. Using Operational Condition Assessments (OCA), the USACE allocates limited resources to assess asset condition in efforts to minimize risks associated with asset performance degradation, but decision makers require a greater understanding of those risks. The analysis of risk associated with Flood Risk Management assets in the context of its associated watershed system includes understanding the consequences of the asset’s failure and a determination of the likelihood that the asset will perform as expected given the current OCA ratings of critical components. This research demonstrates an application of a scalable methodology to model the probability of a dam performing as expected given the state of its subordinate gates and their components. The research team combines this likelihood with consequences generated by the application of designed simulation experiments with hydrological models to develop a measure of risk. The resulting risk scores serve as an input for an optimization program that outputs the optimal set of components to conduct OCAs on to minimize risk in the watershed. Proof-of-concept results for an initial case study on the Jennings Randolph Dam are provided.
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Han, Jinhee, Mohammad Shahidul Kader et Wi-Suk Kwon. The Benefit-Risk Trade-Off in Consumers� Decision to Opt-In Location-Based Advertising. Ames (Iowa) : Iowa State University. Library, janvier 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.31274/itaa.8344.

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Burnett, LouAnn, et Ryan Ritterson. Supporting Risk-Based Decision-Making to Minimize Facility-Associated Re-Introduction of Poliovirus : Phase I. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), décembre 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1761108.

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Bolisetti, Chandrakanth, Chingching Yu, Justin Coleman, Andrew Whittaker et Ben Kosbab. Characterizing the Benefits of Seismic Isolation for Nuclear Structures : A Framework for Risk-Based Decision Making. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), novembre 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1345824.

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Greg Thoma, John Veil, Fred Limp, Jackson Cothren, Bruce Gorham, Malcolm Williamson, Peter Smith et Bob Sullivan. Probabilistic Risk Based Decision Support for Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Facilities in Sensitive Ecosystems. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), mai 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/975095.

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Selkregg, Sheila. The Decision and Rationale which Led to Construction on High-risk Land after the 1964 Alaska Earthquake : Analysis of Risk-based Cultural Dissociation. Portland State University Library, janvier 2000. http://dx.doi.org/10.15760/etd.1301.

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Faherty, Denis M. Risk-Based Decision-Making and the Use of Operational Risk Management in Developing a Course of Action (COA) for the Joint Task Force (JTF). Fort Belvoir, VA : Defense Technical Information Center, mai 2003. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada419825.

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