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Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Risks of MC »

Auteur : Grafiati

Publié le 4 juin 2021

Mis à jour le 14 février 2022

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Articles de revues sur le sujet "Risks of MC"

Hole, Kjell Jorgen. « Management of hidden risks ». Computer 46, n^o 1 (janvier 2013) : 65–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/mc.2012.397.

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McGraw, G. « Managing software security risks ». Computer 35, n^o 4 (2002) : 99–101. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/mc.2002.993782.

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Dacorogna, Michel, Laila Elbahtouri et Marie Kratz. « Validation of aggregated risks models ». Annals of Actuarial Science 12, n^o 2 (4 décembre 2017) : 433–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1748499517000227.

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AbstractValidation of risk models is required by regulators and demanded by management and shareholders. Those models rely in practice heavily on Monte Carlo (MC) simulations. Given their complexity, the convergence of the MC algorithm is difficult to prove mathematically. To circumvent this problem and nevertheless explore the conditions of convergence, we suggest an analytical approach. Considering standard models, we compute, via mixing techniques, closed form formulas for risk measures as Value-at-Risk (VaR) VaR or Tail Value-at-Risk (TVaR) TVaR on a portfolio of risks, and consequently for the associated diversification benefit. The numerical convergence of MC simulations of those various quantities is then tested against their analytical evaluations. The speed of convergence appears to depend on the fatness of the tail of the marginal distributions; the higher the tail index, the faster the convergence. We also explore the behaviour of the diversification benefit with various dependence structures and marginals (heavy and light tails). As expected, it varies heavily with the type of dependence between aggregated risks. The diversification benefit is also studied as a function of the risk measure, VaR or TVaR.

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Gaff, Brian M. « Corporate Risks from Social Media ». Computer 47, n^o 1 (janvier 2014) : 13–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/mc.2014.9.

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Hong, J. I. « Minimizing security risks in ubicomp systems ». Computer 38, n^o 12 (décembre 2005) : 118–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/mc.2005.416.

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Oppliger, Rolf, Gunther Pernul et Sokratis Katsikas. « New Frontiers : Assessing and Managing Security Risks ». Computer 50, n^o 4 (avril 2017) : 48–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/mc.2017.93.

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McGraw, Gary, Richie Bonett, Victor Shepardson et Harold Figueroa. « The Top 10 Risks of Machine Learning Security ». Computer 53, n^o 6 (juin 2020) : 57–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/mc.2020.2984868.

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Kroll, Joshua A., James Bret Michael et David B. Thaw. « Enhancing Cybersecurity via Artificial Intelligence : Risks, Rewards, and Frameworks ». Computer 54, n^o 6 (juin 2021) : 64–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/mc.2021.3055703.

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Xiao, Chan-Chan, Mao-Jian Chen, Fan-Biao Mei, Xiang Fang, Tian-Ren Huang, Ji-Lin Li, Wei Deng et Yuan-Dong Li. « Influencing factors and health risk assessment of microcystins in the Yongjiang river (China) by Monte Carlo simulation ». PeerJ 6 (16 novembre 2018) : e5955. http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.5955.

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The Yongjiang river is a large, shallow, hyper-trophic, freshwater river in Guangxi, China. To investigate the presence of microcystin-RR, microcystin-LR, and microcystin-YR (MC-RR, MC-LR, and MC-YR) in the Yongjiang river and describe their correlation with environmental factors, as well as, assess health risk using Monte Carlo simulation, 90 water samples were collected at three sample points from March to December 2017. Results showed that during the monitoring period, total concentrations of MC-RR (TMC-RR), MC-YR (TMC-YR), and MC-LR (TMC-LR) varied from 0.0224 to 0.3783 μg/L, 0.0329 to 0.1433 μg/L, and 0.0341 to 0.2663 μg/L, respectively. Total phosphorus (TP) content appeared to be related to TMC-LR and the total concentrations of microcystins (TMCs), while pH and total nitrogen (TN)/TP ratio appeared to be related to TMC-RR and TMC-YR, respectively. Using the professional health risk assessment software @Risk7.5, the risks of dietary intake of microcystins (MCs), including the carcinogenic risk and non-carcinogenic risk, were evaluated. It was found that the carcinogenic risk of MC-RR from drinking water was higher than MC-LR and MC-YR, and the presence of MCs would lead to high potential health risks, especially in children. The carcinogenic risk of MC-RR to children was >1 × 10−4, the maximum allowance level recommended by the US Environmental Protection Agency; as for adults, it was >5 × 10−5, the maximum allowance level recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection. The non-carcinogenic hazard index (HI) of MC-RR, MC-YR, and MC-LR increased successively, indicating that MC-LR was more hazardous to human health than MC-YR and MC-RR, but its HI was <1. This suggests that MCs pose less risk to health. However, it is necessary to strengthen the protection and monitoring of drinking water source for effective control of water pollution and safeguarding of human health.

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Munck, Jan Christoph, Alexander Tkotz, Sven Heidenreich et Andreas Wald. « The performance effects of management control instruments in different stages of new product development ». Journal of Accounting & ; Organizational Change 16, n^o 2 (26 juin 2020) : 259–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jaoc-09-2019-0101.

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Purpose The study builds on existing research in management control (MC) and innovation management. The purpose of this study is to identify patterns in the application of MC instruments which contribute to successful innovation. The application of MC instruments can reduce potential risks and make the new product development (NPD) process more transparent and efficient. Design/methodology/approach The authors use dyadic data to determine the effect of 58 MC instruments on NPD process stage-specific performance and subsequent innovation and firm success. To provide empirical evidence of each MC instrument’s effectiveness, three importance-performance matrix analyses were conducted that assess the impact of each MC instrument. Findings The authors identify patterns in the application of MC instruments which contribute to successful innovation activities and the authors determine the impact of MC instruments on NPD performance, innovation performance and firm performance in different stages of the NPD process. Practical implications The authors provide knowledge that can be used by managers to review their actual application of MC in the NPD process and to select their instrument set. Originality/value The authors contribute to the MC literature by examining data from a cross-industry study on the effects of MC instruments during the NPD process. The authors include a comprehensive set of MC instruments and show how their effect changes between the different stages of the NPD process.

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Thèses sur le sujet "Risks of MC"

Young, Marisa R. « Scaling-up Male Circumcision (MC) for HIV Prevention in Western Kenya| Risk Compensation and Infant MC ». Thesis, University of Illinois at Chicago, 2015. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=3736158.

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Background. Male circumcision (MC) is approximately 60% effective against heterosexual HIV transmission among men. MC is being scaled-up across East and southern Africa. If men engage in riskier sex after becoming circumcised (termed “risk compensation”), the protective effect of MC could be diminished. Several governments in East and southern Africa have signaled their intention to scale-up Infant Male Circumcision (IMC) to mitigate potential risk compensation and because the procedure is simpler, safer and less expensive.

Methods. Data for this dissertation come from two sources. The first is the randomized controlled trial of male circumcision for HIV prevention and post-trial follow-up data collected between 2002 and 2010. The trial randomized 2,784 HIV negative men to immediate or delayed circumcision. After a median of 24 months of follow-up, uncircumcised men were offered the surgery and follow-up continued to 72-months. Generalized estimating equations models with incorporation inverse probability of treatment and censor weights were used to estimate the association between circumcision status and four time-varying measures of sexual risk-taking behavior: no condom use at last sex, sex the same day as meeting someone in the previous six months, >2 sexual partners in the previous six months and exchange of sex for gifts or money in the previous six months. The second data source is the Mtoto Msafi study and post-study routine infant circumcision service provision. The case-control study was conducted in 2010 at five government health facilities in western Kenya. Cases were mothers and fathers accepting circumcision for their son. Controls were parents who declined IMC services. A questionnaire comprising 41 questions was administered. Clinical variables relating to the circumcision procedure, including clinical provider, experience level of provider, age of the infant, and adverse event data were collected during the study and after study completion.

Results. In the risk compensation analysis, no condom use at last sex increased modestly over time for both circumcised and uncircumcised men (OR for 6-month increase in time 1.06). Compared to uncircumcised men, circumcised men had increased odds of no condom use at last sex (OR=1.17, p=0.006). There was no evidence of risk compensation in the other sexual behavioral outcome variables. In the infant circumcision analysis, factors associated with accepting IMC among mothers in multivariable logistic regression modeling were: father circumcised, both partners Luo (vs. father uncircumcised, both partners Luo OR=5.47, p<0.001) and agreeing with the father about the IMC decision (OR=5.00, p<0.001). Among fathers, factors associated with accepting IMC were: being circumcised and Luo (vs. uncircumcised and Luo OR=3.96, p≤0.001) and having higher endorsement of MC (OR=3.79, p<0.001). Fathers were the primary decision makers in most instances (66%). Few parents (3%) reported they would prefer a future son to remain uncircumcised. With respect to safety, the overall AE rate among infants reviewed post-operatively was 2.7% (18/678; 95%CI: 1.4, 3.9). There was one severe AE involving excision of a small piece of the lateral aspect of the glans penis. Other AEs were mild or moderate and were treated conservatively. Babies one month of age or older were more likely to have an AE (OR 3.20; 95%CI: 1.23, 8.36). AE rate did not differ by nurse versus clinical officer or number of previous procedures performed.

Conclusions. Both circumcised and uncircumcised men were less likely to use condoms over time. Further studies on risk compensation following MC may not be warranted. Fathers are important in the IMC decision-making process. Fathers, as well as mothers, should be targeted for optimal scale-up of IMC services. Circumcision programs should offer services for males of all ages, since male circumcision at some age is highly acceptable to both men and women. IMC services provided in Kenyan Government hospitals in the context of routine IMC programming have AE rates comparable to those in developed countries. The optimal time for IMC is within the first month of life.

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Goshme, Yewondwossen Mulugeta. « Factors influencing the uptake of male circumcision as HIV prevention strategy among adolescent boys in Nanogang Community Junior Secondary School (NCJSS) Gaborone, Botswana ». Diss., 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10500/8837.

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A quantitative and descriptive type of study design was followed using structured self-administered questionnaires distributed among 84 conveniently selected male adolescent learners from Nanogang Community Junior Secondary School (NCJSS) in Gaborone. The purpose of this study was to describe factors that influence the uptake of safe male circumcision (SMC) as a human immune-deficiency virus (HIV) prevention strategy among male adolescent learners. The study findings show that protection from HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) was found to be the main reason for adolescent learners undergoing male circumcision (MC) (p<.01). Reasons such as maintenance of genital hygiene, culture, religion, and the enhancement of sexual pleasure were not found to be significant factors. Misconceptions such as the belief that girls do not like circumcised partners were found to be the main reason for adolescent learners not undergoing MC (p<.05). A number of factors which were claimed in previous studies to be obstacles for the uptake of MC, such as surgical complications, peer pressure, stigma, and discrimination, were not found to be major obstacles
Health Studies
M.A. (Public Health)

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Lafrance-Girard, Corinne. « Toxoplasma gondii dans la viande au détail au Canada : prévalence, quantification et facteurs de risque dans une perspective de santé publique ». Thèse, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/1866/19890.

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Costea, Irina C. « Genes involved in the metabolism of fatty acids and risk for Crohn's disease in children : a candidate gene study ». Thèse, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/1866/2861.

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Contexte - La prévalence de la maladie de Crohn (MC), une maladie inflammatoire chronique du tube digestif, chez les enfants canadiens se situe parmi les plus élevées au monde. Les interactions entre les réponses immunes innées et acquises aux microbes de l'hôte pourraient être à la base de la transition de l’inflammation physiologique à une inflammation pathologique. Le leucotriène B4 (LTB4) est un modulateur clé de l'inflammation et a été associé à la MC. Nous avons postulé que les principaux gènes impliqués dans la voie métabolique du LTB4 pourrait conférer une susceptibilité accrue à l'apparition précoce de la MC. Dans cette étude, nous avons exploré les associations potentielles entre les variantes de l'ADN des gènes ALOX5 et CYP4F2 et la survenue précoce de la MC. Nous avons également examiné si les gènes sélectionnés montraient des effets parent-d'origine, influençaient les phénotypes cliniques de la MC et s'il existait des interactions gène-gène qui modifieraient la susceptibilité à développer la MC chez l’enfant. Méthodes – Dans le cadre d’une étude de cas-parents et de cas-témoins, des cas confirmés, leurs parents et des contrôles ont été recrutés à partir de trois cliniques de gastro-entérologie à travers le Canada. Les associations entre les polymorphismes de remplacement d'un nucléotide simple (SNP) dans les gènes CYP4F2 et ALOX5 ont été examinées. Les associations allélique et génotypiques ont été examinées à partir d’une analyse du génotype conditionnel à la parenté (CPG) pour le résultats cas-parents et à l’aide de table de contingence et de régression logistique pour les données de cas-contrôles. Les interactions gène-gène ont été explorées à l'aide de méthodes de réduction multi-factorielles de dimensionnalité (MDR). Résultats – L’étude de cas-parents a été menée sur 160 trios. L’analyse CPG pour 14 tag-SNP (10 dans la CYP4F2 et 4 dans le gène ALOX5) a révélé la présence d’associations alléliques ou génotypique significatives entre 3 tag-SNP dans le gène CYP4F2 (rs1272, p = 0,04, rs3093158, p = 0.00003, et rs3093145, p = 0,02). Aucune association avec les SNPs de ALOX5 n’a pu être démontrée. L’analyse de l’haplotype de CYP4F2 a montré d'importantes associations avec la MC (test omnibus p = 0,035). Deux haplotypes (GAGTTCGTAA, p = 0,05; GGCCTCGTCG, p = 0,001) montraient des signes d'association avec la MC. Aucun effet parent-d'origine n’a été observé. Les tentatives de réplication pour trois SNPs du gene CYP4F2 dans l'étude cas-témoins comportant 225 cas de MC et 330 contrôles suggèrent l’association dans un de ceux-ci (rs3093158, valeur non-corrigée de p du test unilatéral = 0,03 ; valeur corrigée de p = 0.09). La combinaison des ces deux études a révélé des interactions significatives entre les gènes CYP4F2, ALOX et NOD2. Nous n’avons pu mettre en évidence aucune interaction gène-sexe, de même qu’aucun gène associé aux phénotypes cliniques de la MC n’a pu être identifié. Conclusions - Notre étude suggère que la CYP4F2, un membre clé de la voie métabolique LTB4 est un gène candidat potentiel pour MC. Nous avons également pu mettre en évidence que les interactions entre les gènes de l'immunité adaptative (CYP4F2 et ALOX5) et les gènes de l'immunité innée (NOD2) modifient les risques de MC chez les enfants. D'autres études sur des cohortes plus importantes sont nécessaires pour confirmer ces conclusions.
Background - The rates of Crohn’s disease (CD) a chronic inflammatory disease of the gastrointestinal tract, among Canadian children are the world’s highest. Interactions between the host microbial–innate-immune-responses are thought to underplay transition from physiological to pathological inflammation. Leukotriene B4 (LTB4) is a key modulator of inflammation and has been shown to be associated with CD. We postulated that key genes involved in the LTB4 metabolic pathway could confer susceptibility for early-onset CD. In this study we implemented a candidate gene approach to test for associations between DNA variants in the ALOX5 and CYP4F2 genes and early-onset of CD. We also explored whether the selected genes demonstrated parent-of-origin effects, influenced CD clinical phenotypes and whether there were gender-gene and gene-gene interactions that determined CD susceptibility. Methods – The study consisted of an exploratory phase (case-parent design) followed by a replication phase (case-control design). Confirmed cases, parents and controls were recruited from three tertiary gastroenterology clinics across Canada. Associations between tag-single nucleotide polymorphisms in the CYP4F2 and ALOX5 genes were examined. Allelic and/or genotype associations were examined using conditional on parental genotype (CPG) analysis for the case-parent data and contingency table and logistic regression for the case-control data. Gene-gene interactions were explored using multi-factor dimensionality reduction (MDR) methods. Results – The first phase of the study was based on 160 trios (case-parent design). CPG analysis for 14 tag-SNPs (i.e. 10 in the CYP4F2 and 4 in the ALOX5 gene, respectively) revealed significant allelic or genotypic associations between 3 tag-SNPs in the CYP4F2 gene (rs1272, p=0.04, rs3093158, p=0.00003, and rs3093145, p=0.02). No associations with ALOX5 tag-SNPs were evident. CYP4F2-haplotype analysis showed significant associations with CD (omnibus test p-value=0.035). Two specific haplotypes (GAGTTCGTAA, p=0.05; GGCCTCGTCG, p=0.001) showed evidence for association with CD. No parent-of-origin effects were observed. The second phase of the study retested the three CYP4F2 SNPs that showed association in the first stage and was based on 223 CD cases and 330 controls. Some indications of association with one SNP i.e. rs3093158 were present (genotypic uncorrected 1-sided p-value=0.03); however this genotype association did not withstand correction. Combining cases from the two phases of the study revealed significant interactions between the CYP4F2, ALOX and NOD2 genes. No gene-gender interactions were obvious nor were the study genes associated with specific clinical phenotypes of CD. Conclusions - Our study suggests that the CYP4F2, a key member of the LTB4 metabolic pathway is a potential candidate gene for CD. Furthermore there was evidence that interactions between adaptive immunity genes (CYP4F2 and ALOX5) and innate immunity genes (NOD2) genes modify risk for CD in children. Further studies on larger cohorts are required to confirm these findings.

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Chapitres de livres sur le sujet "Risks of MC"

Bardou, Olivier, Noufel Frikha et Gilles Pagès. « Recursive Computation of Value-at-Risk and Conditional Value-at-Risk using MC and QMC ». Dans Monte Carlo and Quasi-Monte Carlo Methods 2008, 193–208. Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-04107-5_11.

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Cropley, Colin H. « The Case for Truly Integrated Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis ». Dans Advances in IT Personnel and Project Management, 76–108. IGI Global, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-5225-1790-0.ch004.

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Time and cost outcomes of large and complex projects are forecast poorly across all sectors. Over recent years, Monte Carlo (MC) simulation has increasingly been adopted to forecast project time and cost outcomes more realistically. It is recognised that the simultaneous analysis of time and cost impacts makes sense as a modelling objective, due to the well-known relationship of time and money in projects. But most MC practitioners advocate the use of Schedule Risk Analysis (SRA) feeding into Cost Risk Analysis (CRA) because they believe it is too hard to perform Integrated Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis (IRA) realistically. This chapter elaborates an IRA methodology that produces realistic forecasts without relying on questionable assumptions and enables identification and ranking of all sources of cost uncertainty for risk optimisation as part of the process. It also describes an extension of IRA methodology to include assessment of the assets produced by the project as well as the project itself, thus enabling the analysis of business risks as well as project risks.

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Calderón-Garcidueñas, Lilian, Antonieta Mora-Tiscareño, Gastón Melo-Sánchez, Joel Rodríguez-Díaz, Ricardo Torres-Jardón, Martin Styner, Partha S. Mukherjee, Weili Lin et Valerie Jewells. « A Critical Proton MR Spectroscopy Marker of Alzheimer’s Disease Early Neurodegenerative Change : Low Hippocampal NAA/Cr Ratio Impacts APOE ε4 Mexico City Children and Their Parents ». Dans Advances in Alzheimer’s Disease. IOS Press, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.3233/aiad210041.

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Severe air pollution exposures produce systemic, respiratory, myocardial, and brain inflammation and Alzheimer’s disease (AD) hallmarks in clinically healthy children. We tested whether hippocampal metabolite ratios are associated with contrasting levels of air pollution, APOE, and body mass index (BMI) in paired healthy children and one parent sharing the same APOE alleles. We used 1H-MRS to interrogate bilateral hippocampal single-voxel in 57 children (12.45 ± 3.4 years) and their 48 parents (37.5 ± 6.78 years) from a low pollution city versus Mexico City (MC). NAA/Cr, Cho/Cr, and mI/Cr metabolite ratios were analyzed. The right hippocampus NAA/Cr ratio was significantly different between cohorts (p = 0.007). The NAA/Cr ratio in right hippocampus in controls versus APOE ε4 MC children and in left hippocampus in MC APOE ε4 parents versus their children was significantly different after adjusting for age, gender, and BMI (p = 0.027 and 0.01, respectively). The NAA/Cr ratio is considered reflective of neuronal density/functional integrity/loss of synapses/higher pTau burden, thus a significant decrease in hippocampal NAA/Cr ratios may constitute a spectral marker of early neurodegeneration in young urbanites. Decreases in NAA/Cr correlate well with cognitive function, behavioral symptoms, and dementia severity; thus, since the progression of AD starts decades before clinical diagnosis, our findings support the hypothesis that under chronic exposures to fine particulate matter and ozone above the standards, neurodegenerative processes start in childhood and APOE ε4 carriers are at higher risk. Gene and environmental factors are critical in the development of AD and the identification and neuroprotection of young urbanites at high risk must become a public health priority.

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Blom, Henk, Jaroslav Krystul, (Bert) Bakker, Margriet Klompstra et Bart Klein Obbink. « Free Flight Collision Risk Estimation by Sequential MC Simulation ». Dans Automation and Control Engineering, 249–81. CRC Press, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1201/9781420008548.ch10.

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González-Maciel, Angélica, Rafael Reynoso-Robles, Ricardo Torres-Jardón, Partha S. Mukherjee et Lilian Calderón-Garcidueñas. « Combustion-Derived Nanoparticles in Key Brain Target Cells and Organelles in Young Urbanites : Culprit Hidden in Plain Sight in Alzheimer’s Disease Development ». Dans Advances in Alzheimer’s Disease. IOS Press, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.3233/aiad210005.

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Millions of children and young adults are exposed to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone, associated with Alzheimer’s disease (AD) risk. Mexico City (MC) children exhibit systemic and brain inflammation, low cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) Aβ1-42, breakdown of nasal, olfactory, alveolar-capillary, duodenal, and blood-brain barriers, volumetric and metabolic brain changes, attention and short-term memory deficits, and hallmarks of AD and Parkinson’s disease. Airborne iron-rich strongly magnetic combustion-derived nanoparticles (CDNPs) are present in young urbanites’ brains. Using transmission electron microscopy, we documented CDNPs in neurons, glia, choroid plexus, and neurovascular units of young MC residents versus matched clean air controls. CDNPs are associated with pathology in mitochondria, endoplasmic reticulum (ER), mitochondria-ER contacts (MERCs), axons,and dendrites. There is a significant difference in size and numbers between spherical CDNPs (>85%) and the angular, euhedral endogenous NPs (<15%). Spherical CDNPs (dogs 21.2 ± 7.1 nm in diameter versus humans 29.1 ± 11.2 nm, p = 0.002) are present in neurons, glia, choroid plexus, endothelium, nasal and olfactory epithelium, and in CSF at significantly higher in numbers in MC residents (p < 0.0001). Degenerated MERCs, abnormal mitochondria, and dilated ER are widespread, and CDNPs in close contact with neurofilaments, glial fibers, and chromatin are a potential source for altered microtubule dynamics, mitochondrial dysfunction, accumulation and aggregation of unfolded proteins, abnormal endosomal systems, altered insulin signaling, calcium homeostasis, apoptotic signaling, autophagy, and epigenetic changes. Highly oxidative, ubiquitous CDNPs constitute a novel path into AD pathogenesis. Exposed children and young adults need early neuroprotection and multidisciplinary prevention efforts to modify the course of AD at early stages.

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Toussaint, Mark P. « Queering Prehistory on the Frontier ». Dans Bioarchaeology of Frontiers and Borderlands, 55–80. University Press of Florida, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.5744/florida/9781683400844.003.0004.

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The Mierzanowice Culture (MC) is the name given to an archaeological complex that existed from about 2400/2300–1600 BCE, in the Early Bronze Age of Central Europe. Mierzanowice Culture cemeteries provide a unique opportunity to investigate and theorize the relationship between sex and gender in prehistory, due to their tradition of mirror-opposite, seemingly sex-differentiated burials. This chapter questions interpretations of these burial characteristics in terms of rigid, sex-based binaries, and investigates whether they may correspond more closely with social constructions of identity, including gender and status. Furthermore, it explores the relationship between salient biological and social categories and health in Mierzanowice communities. Although the case study explored in this chapter was based on a small sample of individuals, a few patterns have begun to emerge. Certain aspects of burial orientations may correspond more to gender than to sex. Furthermore, it is not out of the realm of possibility that some atypical burial orientations may correspond to a non-binary gender category. This preliminary study also indicated that while all individuals were at fairly equal risk of perimortem trauma, females were more likely than males to incur antemortem trauma.

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Rubin, Yoram. « Quantifying and Accounting for Uncertainty ». Dans Applied Stochastic Hydrogeology. Oxford University Press, 2003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780195138047.003.0018.

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This chapter deals with a wide range of issues with a common theme: coping with uncertainty. To this end, we look at the sources of uncertainty and the types of errors we need to deal with. We then explore methods for identifying these errors and for incorporating them into our predictions. This chapter extends our discussion on these topics in chapter 1, the discussion in chapter 3 on estimation under conditions of uncertainty, and image simulation using MC techniques. A comprehensive treatment of uncertainty needs to address two different types of errors. The first type is the model error, which arises from incorrect hypotheses and unmodeled processes (Gaganis and Smith, 2001), for example, from poor choice of governing equations, incorrect boundary conditions and zonation geometry, and inappropriate selection of forcing functions (Carrera and Neuman, 1986b). The second type of error is parameter error. The parameters of groundwater models are always in error because of measurement errors, heterogeneity, and scaling issues. Ignoring the effects of model and parameter errors is likely to lead to errors in model selection, in the estimation of prediction uncertainty, and in the assessment of risk. Parameter error is treated extensively in the literature: once a model is defined, it is common practice to quantify the errors associated with estimating its parameters (cf. Kitanidis and Vomvoris, 1983; Carrera and Neuman, 1986a, b; Rubin and Dagan, 1987a,b; McLaughlin and Townley, 1996; Poeter and Hill, 1997). Modeling error is well recognized, but is more difficult to quantify. Let us consider, for example, an aquifer which appears to be of uniform conductivity. Parameter error quantifies the error in estimating this conductivity. Modeling error, on the other hand, includes elusive factors such as missing a meandering channel somewhere in the aquifer. This, in essence, is the difficulty in determining modeling error; parameter error can be roughly quantified based on measurements if one assumes that the model is correct, but modeling error is expected to represent all that the measurements and/or the modeler fail to capture. To evaluate model error, the perfect model needs to be known, but this is never possible.

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« Basic SI Units 2-60 Force, Mass and Movement 2-61 The Simple Alternator 2-62 Mechanics and Machines 2-63 Conductors and Insulators 2-65 Electron Flow or Electric Current 2-66 Three Effects of an Electric Current 2-67 Heating Effect 2-67 Magnetic Effect 2-68 Chemical Effect 2-68 Conductors, Insulators and Electrical Effects 2-69 Ohm’s Law 2-71 Series Circuits 2-71 Parallel Resistors 2-72 Series and Parallel Resistors 2-73 Magnetic Fields and Flux Patterns 2-76 Magnetism 2-77 Electrical Transformers 2-78 Electrical Power on the National Grid 2-79 Transformers and Electrical Transmission 2-80 Electrical Circuits 2-82 Earthing and Bonding 2-86 Electric Shock Protection 2-87 Earthed Equipotential Bonding coupled with Automatic Disconnection of the Supply 2-88 Earthing and Bonding 2-89 Wiring Systems 2-91 Tools and Equipment used for Electrotechnical Applications 2-93 Safety at Work 2-95 Worksheet 11 (MC Questions) 2-97 Answers to Worksheets 1 to 11 2-101 3 Core Unit 3 (Level 2) Application of Health and Safety and Electrical Principles (Stage 2) 3-103 Avoiding Accidents in the Workplace 3-105 Risk Assessment, the Process 3-106 Safe Working above Ground Level 3-108 Manual Handling 3-110 Good Manual Lifting Techniques 3-110 Manual Handling 3-111 ». Dans Electrical Installation Work Curriculum Support Pack, 3. Routledge, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9780080505145-1.

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« Safety Officer 5-187 Safety Representatives 5-187 Conditions leading to Accidents at Work 5-188 Risk Assessment, the Process 5-192 Accident Reports 5-194 Environmental Legislation as is applies to the Electrotechnical Industry 5-195 Environmental Protection Act 1990 5-195 Pollution Prevention and Control Act 2000 5-195 Clear Air Act 1993 5-195 Radioactive Substances Act 1993 5-196 Controlled Waste Regulations 1998 5-196 Dangerous Substances and Preparations and Chemical Regulations 2000 5-196 Employment Legislation as it applies to the Electrotechnical Industry 5-197 Employment Rights Act 1996 5-197 Data Protection Act 1998 5-197 Disability Discrimination Act 1995 5-197 Race Relations Act 1976 (Amended in 2000) 5-198 Sex Discrimination Act 1975 5-198 Human Rights Act 1998 5-198 Quality Systems 5-199 ISO 9000 Quality Standard 5-199 Investors in People Award 5-199 Electrical Science 5-200 Magnetism 5-203 Inductance and Inductive Components 5-205 Electrostatics 5-206 A.C. Theory 5-208 Semiconductor Devices 5-209 Industrial Distribution Systems 5-211 Electrical Machines – Principles of Operation 5-215 Worksheet 11 (MC Questions) 5-221 Answers to Worksheets 1 to 11 5-229 6 Unit 2 (Level 3) Installation (Buildings and Structures) Inspection, Testing and Commissioning 6-233 Making an Area Safe before Work Commences 6-235 The Electrical Installation – Initial On-Site Planning 6-236 Those Concerned with Electrical Installations in Buildings 6-238 Regulations Affecting Building Construction 6-239 ». Dans Electrical Installation Work Curriculum Support Pack, 5. Routledge, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9780080505145-3.

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Actes de conférences sur le sujet "Risks of MC"

Tsembelis, Konstantinos, Seyun Eom, Nicholas Christodoulou, Mahesh Pandey et John Jin. « A Case Study on the Normality of Monte-Carlo Simulation Results ». Dans ASME 2016 Pressure Vessels and Piping Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/pvp2016-63622.

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In order to address the risks associated with the operation of ageing pressure boundary components, many assessments incorporate probabilistic analysis methodologies for alleviating excessive conservatism of deterministic methodologies. In general, deterministic techniques utilize conservative upper bound values for all critical parameters. Equally, defense-in-depth assessments for the nuclear industry employ probabilistic methods in order to estimate potential risks associated with unanticipated events to demonstrate adequate margins associated with the licensed activity. Probabilistic approaches typically invoke the Monte-Carlo (MC) approach where a set of critical input variables, assumed independent, are randomly distributed and inserted in deterministic computer models. Estimates of results from probabilistic structural integrity assessments are then compared against assessment criteria, at times, based on the assumption that these results follow normal distributions. However, this assumption is not always valid, as normality depends both on the initially assumed distributions of the input variables and linearity, or lack thereof, of the deterministic model. In particular, the characteristic of a system function (either a linear or a non-linear system function) and the sampling region of input parameters affect the level of normality of the MC simulation results. As a proof of principle, a specific case study is presented. A system function is chosen based on the steady-state thermal creep of Zr-2.5Nb Pressure Tube (PT), instead of a full deterministic computational model, to show whether it can give rise to MC results that deviate from normality. The consequence of the deviation from normality when compared against assessment criteria is briefly discussed. It is noted that this study does not deal with analysis of Probabilistic Safety Assessments, also known as PSAs.

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Tsembelis, Konstantinos, Seyun Eom, John Jin et Christopher Cole. « Effects of Non-Normal Input Distributions and Sampling Region on Monte Carlo Results ». Dans ASME 2018 Pressure Vessels and Piping Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/pvp2018-84767.

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In order to address the risks associated with the operation of ageing pressure boundary components, many assessments incorporate probabilistic analysis tools for alleviating excessive conservatism of deterministic methodologies. In general, deterministic techniques utilize conservative bounding values for all critical parameters. Recently, various Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics (PFM) codes have been employed to identify governing parameters which could affect licensing basis margins of pressure retaining components. Moreover, these codes are used to calculate a probability of failure in order to estimate potential risks under operating and design loading conditions for the pressure retaining components experiencing plausible and active degradation mechanisms. Probabilistic approaches typically invoke the Monte-Carlo (MC) method where a set of critical input variables are randomly distributed and inserted in deterministic computer models. Estimates of results from probabilistic assessments are then compared against various assessment criteria. During the PVP-2016 conference, we investigated the assumption of normality of the Monte Carlo results utilizing a non-linear system function. In this paper, we extend the study by employing non-normal input distributions and investigating the effects of sampling region on the system function.

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Dura´n, Felicia A., et Gregory D. Wyss. « Human Reliability-Based MC&A Methods for Evaluating the Effectiveness of Protecting Nuclear Material ». Dans ASME 2011 14th International Conference on Environmental Remediation and Radioactive Waste Management. ASMEDC, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/icem2011-59379.

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Material control and accountability (MC&A) operations that track and account for critical assets at nuclear facilities provide a key protection approach for defeating insider adversaries. MC&A activities, from monitoring to inventory measurements, provide critical information about target materials and define security elements that are useful against insider threats. However, these activities have been difficult to characterize in ways that are compatible with the path analysis methods that are used to systematically evaluate the effectiveness of a site’s protection system. The path analysis methodology focuses on a systematic, quantitative evaluation of the physical protection component of the system for potential external threats, and often calculates the probability that the physical protection system (PPS) is effective (PE) in defeating an adversary who uses that attack pathway. In previous work, Dawson and Hester observed that many MC&A activities can be considered a type of sensor system with alarm and assessment capabilities that provide reccurring opportunities for “detecting” the status of critical items. This work has extended that characterization of MC&A activities as probabilistic sensors that are interwoven within each protection layer of the PPS. In addition, MC&A activities have similar characteristics to operator tasks performed in a nuclear power plant (NPP) in that the reliability of these activities depends significantly on human performance. Many of the procedures involve human performance in checking for anomalous conditions. Further characterization of MC&A activities as operational procedures that check the status of critical assets provides a basis for applying human reliability analysis (HRA) models and methods to determine probabilities of detection for MC&A protection elements. This paper will discuss the application of HRA methods used in nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessments to define detection probabilities and to formulate “timely detection” for MC&A operations. This work has enabled the development of an integrated path analysis methodology in which MC&A operations can be combined with traditional sensor data in the calculation of PPS effectiveness. Explicitly incorporating MC&A operations into the existing evaluation methodology provides the basis for an effectiveness measure for insider threats, and the resulting PE calculations will provide an integrated effectiveness measure that addresses both external and insider threats. The extended path analysis methodology is being further investigated as the basis for including the PPS and MC&A activities in an integrated safeguards and security system for advanced fuel cycle facilities.

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Wang, Yonggui, et Juan Zhang. « Application of MC Method in Risk Decision of Engineering Project ». Dans 2010 International Conference on E-Product E-Service and E-Entertainment (ICEEE 2010). IEEE, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/iceee.2010.5660465.

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Huang, Jian-wen, et Xing-xia Wang. « Risk Analysis of Construction Schedule Based on PERT and MC Simulation ». Dans 2009 International Conference on Information Management, Innovation Management and Industrial Engineering. IEEE, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/iciii.2009.195.

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Cristiano, Carlo, et Marco Pirrone. « EFFICIENT PETROPHYSICAL UNCERTAINTY PROPAGATION VIA DATA-DRIVEN ANALYTICS ». Dans 2021 SPWLA 62nd Annual Logging Symposium Online. Society of Petrophysicists and Well Log Analysts, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.30632/spwla-2021-0038.

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Risk-mitigation strategies are most effective when the major sources of uncertainty are determined through dedicated and in-depth studies. In the context of reservoir characterization and modeling, petrophysical uncertainty plays a significant role in the risk assessment phase, for instance in the computation of volumetrics. The conventional workflow for the propagation of the petrophysical uncertainty consists of physics-based model embedded into a Monte Carlo (MC) template. In detail, open-hole logs and their inherent uncertainties are used to estimate the important petrophysical properties (e.g. shale volume, porosity, water saturation) with uncertainty through the mechanistic model and MC simulations. In turn, model parameter uncertainties can be also considered. This standard approach can be highly time-consuming in case the physics-based model is complex, unknown, difficult to reproduce (e.g. old/legacy wells) and/or the number of wells to be processed is very high. In this respect, the aim of this paper is to show how a data-driven methodology can be used to propagate the petrophysical uncertainty in a fast and efficient way, speeding-up the complete process but still remaining consistent with the main outcomes. In detail, a fit-for-purpose Random Forest (RF) algorithm learns through experience how log measurements are related to the important petrophysical parameters. Then, a MC framework is used to infer the petrophysical uncertainty starting from the uncertainty of the input logs, still with the RF model as a driver. The complete methodology, first validated with ad-hoc synthetic case studies, has been then applied to two real cases, where the petrophysical uncertainty has been required for reservoir modeling purposes. The first one includes legacy wells intercepting a very complex lithological environment. The second case comprises a sandstone reservoir with a very high number of wells, instead. For both scenarios, the standard approach would have taken too long (several months) to be completed, with no possibility to integrate the results into the reservoir models in time. Hence, for each well the RF regressor has been trained and tested on the whole dataset available, obtaining a valid data-driven analytics model for formation evaluation. Next, 1000 scenarios of input logs have been generated via MC simulations using multivariate normal distributions. Finally, the RF regressor predicts the associated 1000 petrophysical characterization scenarios. As final outcomes of the workflow, ad-hoc statistics (e.g. P10, P50, P90 quantiles) have been used to wrap up the main findings. The complete data-driven approach took few days for both scenarios with a critical impact on the subsequent reservoir modeling activities. This study opens the possibility to quickly process a high number of wells and, in particular, it can be also used to effectively propagate the petrophysical uncertainty to legacy well data for which conventional approaches are not an option, in terms of time-efficiency.

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Chang, Wei-Cheng, Chun-Liang Li, Yiming Yang et Barnabás Póczos. « Data-driven Random Fourier Features using Stein Effect ». Dans Twenty-Sixth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence. California : International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence Organization, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.24963/ijcai.2017/207.

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Large-scale kernel approximation is an important problem in machine learning research. Approaches using random Fourier features have become increasingly popular \cite{Rahimi_NIPS_07}, where kernel approximation is treated as empirical mean estimation via Monte Carlo (MC) or Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) integration \cite{Yang_ICML_14}. A limitation of the current approaches is that all the features receive an equal weight summing to 1. In this paper, we propose a novel shrinkage estimator from "Stein effect", which provides a data-driven weighting strategy for random features and enjoys theoretical justifications in terms of lowering the empirical risk. We further present an efficient randomized algorithm for large-scale applications of the proposed method. Our empirical results on six benchmark data sets demonstrate the advantageous performance of this approach over representative baselines in both kernel approximation and supervised learning tasks.

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Gajjar, Mrugesh, Christian Amann et Kai Kadau. « High-Performance Computing Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Implementation for Gas Turbine Rotor Disks on Distributed Architectures Including Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) ». Dans ASME Turbo Expo 2021 : Turbomachinery Technical Conference and Exposition. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/gt2021-59295.

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Abstract We present an efficient Monte Carlo based probabilistic fracture mechanics simulation implementation for heterogeneous high-performance (HPC) architectures including CPUs and GPUs. The specific application focuses on large heavy-duty gas turbine rotor components for the energy sector. A reliable probabilistic risk quantification requires the simulation of millions to billions of Monte Carlo (MC) samples. We apply a modified Runge-Kutta algorithm in order to solve numerically the fatigue crack growth for this large number of cracks for varying initial crack sizes, locations, material and service conditions. This compute intensive simulation has already been demonstrated to perform efficiently and scalable on parallel and distributed HPC architectures including hundreds of CPUs utilizing the Message Passing Interface (MPI) paradigm. In this work, we go a step further and include GPUs in our parallelization strategy. We develop a load distribution scheme to share one or more GPUs on compute nodes distributed over a network. We detail technical challenges and solution strategies in performing the simulations on GPUs efficiently. We show that the key computation of the modified Runge-Kutta integration step speeds up over two orders of magnitude on a typical GPU compared to a single threaded CPU. This is supported by our use of GPU textures for efficient interpolation of multi-dimensional tables utilized in the implementation. We demonstrate weak and strong scaling of our GPU implementation, i.e., that we can efficiently utilize a large number of GPUs/CPUs in order to solve for more MC samples, or reduce the computational turn-around time, respectively. On seven different GPUs spanning four generations, the presented probabilistic fracture mechanics simulation tool ProbFM achieves a speed-up ranging from 16.4x to 47.4x compared to single threaded CPU implementation.

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Ćorak, Maro, Joško Parunov et C. Guedes Soares. « Structural Reliability Assessment of an Oil Tanker Accidentally Grounded in the Adriatic Sea ». Dans ASME 2017 36th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2017-62278.

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The aim of the paper is to present a methodology for the assessment of the structural reliability of an oil tanker damaged in a hypothetical grounding accident in the Adriatic Sea. The grounding accident affects the ultimate hull girder capacity in the damaged region, the still water bending moment (SWBM) distribution along the vessel as well as the vertical wave bending moments (VWBM). The extent of the damage on the ship’s hull after a grounding accident depends on several parameters such as ship‘s speed, rock size, penetration depth, longitudinal and transversal location of stranding along the hull. These parameters are in the present study assumed as random variables, described by probability density functions. Based on defined statistical properties, random realizations of grounding parameters are simulated by Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. For each such random grounding scenario, the damage size is calculated by the surrogate model based on numerical grounding simulations. Residual ultimate strength and SWBM distribution are determined based on the size and location of the damage. VWBM is calculated for average sea state in the area with increased risk of grounding accident in the Adriatic Sea. Structural reliability analysis is employed to determine the safety index with respect to the ultimate hull girder failure for salvage period of 12 hours. As each grounding scenario results in different hull-girder reliability, histogram of safety indices is obtained representing new measures for the performance assessment of the damaged ship.

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Qiu, Hongyuan, Jianming Yang, Geoff Rideout et Stephen Butt. « A Random Method for Calculation of Hoisting Drag ». Dans ASME 2020 39th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2020-19149.

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Abstract In reality, downhole conditions are highly unpredictable due to many uncertain and inconsistent factors, such as the uncertainty of the friction and contact between drillstring and bore-hole. As friction and contact are crucial components in torque and drag calculation, it is meaningful and practical to consider their uncertainty. This paper presents a random method for calculation of hoisting drag. Firstly, the finite element method (FEM) is used for hoisting drag calculation of a directional drilling well using Adanoy’s method in the deterministic case. Then two strategies are taken to model the random component in the downhole. The first strategy considers the randomness of the downhole friction. Instead of being a deterministic value, the friction coefficient is considered as Gaussian. The second strategy considers the randomness of contact between drillstring and wellbore. As a result, the drillstring is no longer continuously contacting with the wellbore in the curved section of well profile, which can help avoid overestimating torque and drag. Parametric studies on both strategies are conducted. Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is employed for statistical analysis. The probability density distributions and mean values of drag will be studied. The methodology can be extended into torque or drag calculation in lowering, ream in and ream out drilling conditions. Results from this paper indicate that surface hoisting drag is nearly Gaussian when the friction coefficient is Gaussian. The contact loss leads to considerable reduction in the surface hoisting drag when contact uncertainty is considered. The work of this paper will help estimate the range of surface drag and torque, which allows the well planner to develop a risk assessment for a challenging well trajectory.

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Rapports d'organisations sur le sujet "Risks of MC"

Lotufo, Guilherme, Mark Chappell, Cindy Price, Mark Ballentine, Ashley Fuentes, Todd Bridges, Robert George, Eric Glisch et Geoffrey Carton. Review and synthesis of evidence regarding environmental risks posed by munitions constituents (MC) in aquatic systems. Environmental Laboratory (U.S.), octobre 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/25402.

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Lotufo, Guilherme, Mark Chappell, Cindy Price, Mark Ballentine, Ashley Fuentes, Todd Bridges, Robert George, Eric Glisch et Geoffrey Carton. Review and synthesis of evidence regarding environmental risks posed by munitions constituents (MC) in aquatic systems : appendix A. Environmental Laboratory (U.S.), octobre 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/24830.

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Lotufo, Guilherme, Mark Chappell, Cindy Price, Mark Ballentine, Ashley Fuentes, Todd Bridges, Robert George, Eric Glisch et Geoffrey Carton. Review and synthesis of evidence regarding environmental risks posed by munitions constituents (MC) in aquatic systems : appendix B. Environmental Laboratory (U.S.), octobre 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/24831.

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Lotufo, Guilherme, Mark Chappell, Cindy Price, Mark Ballentine, Ashley Fuentes, Todd Bridges, Robert George, Eric Glisch et Geoffrey Carton. Review and synthesis of evidence regarding environmental risks posed by munitions constituents (MC) in aquatic systems : appendix C. Environmental Laboratory (U.S.), octobre 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/24832.

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