Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Tourism theory »

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to develop a framework for identifying the need for ecotourism certification within ecotourism and sport tourism (EST) by discussing the overlapping characteristics on the dimensions of EST. Design/methodology/approach – Qualitatively, the Social Exchange Theory was used to discover segments of tourists based on the two dimensions: EST. Findings – The findings discovered four strategic segments (namely; vacation, green, action oriented and active tourists), their related activities, and the level of need for eco certification. Practical implications – EST activities offer a unique opportunity for tourism managers to positively influence conservation in and around communities, protected areas and sport events. Applying and implementing a global eco certification is paramount to attract tourists and enhance credibility of sport tourism. Originality/value – Identification of the four tourists segments and their relative need for certification is the novelty of the study. The labels of the identified tourist segments are: vacation tourist (low on ecotourism and low on sport tourism); green tourist (high on ecotourism and low on sport tourism); action-oriented tourist (high on ecotourism and high on sport tourism); and active tourist (low on ecotourism and high on sport tourism). The certification needs for green and action-oriented tourists are HIGH, for active tourist is MEDIUM, and for vacation tourist is LOW.

With the improvement of people’s quality of life, driven by consumer demand such as “self-drive tour” and “RV travel”, the RV market in China is growing rapidly. The development of RV camp service is related to the satisfaction and development degree of RV travel. Based on expectancy theory, this paper uses the questionnaire survey in Inner Mongolia ordos RV tourism development. For tourists on the tourism products, tourism facilities, tourism environment, tourism publicity tourist expectation theory analysis, consumers’ motivation of RV travel under the influence of tourism expectations and titer, SPSS statistical methods are used to find the main factors of RV camp consumption decisions. Finally, improvement strategy is put forward to improve the tourism infrastructure, tourist convenience and satisfaction, promoting the development of ordos RV tourism.

<p>Based on the data from the Bali Provincial Tourism Office in 2018, the number of French tourist visits to Bali continues to increase every year, even in 2018 it occupies the seventh position from the top ten suppliers of tourists to Bali. This condition is inseparable from the role of the Travel Agency in Bali, which always innovates and develops tourism products that suit the needs and characteristics of tourists. One of the Travel Agencies that focuses on working on the French tourist market is PT. Karang Bali Asli (KBA) Tour Denpasar which has been operating since 1999. This study examines three problems, namely: (1) What are the tourist characteristics-based products of French tourists offered by PT. KBA Tour ?; (2) What is the perception of French tourists on tourism products offered by PT. KBA Tour ?; and (3) How is the development of tourism products based on the characteristics of French tourists at PT. KBA Tour? This research is a qualitative research, with methods of collecting data through observation, in-depth interviews, questionnaires, and literature studies. The theory used was the Marketing Mix Theory and Perception Theory. The results of the study show that: (1) In general, tourism products offered by PT. KBA Tour Denpasar are interactive tourism products or tourism products that create intractions between tourists with the local community, as well as tourism products that create interaction between tourists and the natural environment; (2) The perception of French tourists on tourism products offered by PT. KBA Tur, shows positive (good) values for the four indicators in the Marketing Mix theory, namely: Product, Price, Place, and Promotion; (3) Business development of tourism products based on the characteristics of French tourists at PT. KBA Tur can be carried out as expected because of the synergy and support of the local community, company employees, and feedback and input from the tourists themselves, so that the tourism products offered by PT. KBA Tur are very popular with tourists and can be sustainable.</p><p> </p><p>Keywords: Development, Tourism Products, Tourist Characteristics.</p>

The purpose of this study is to develop a model to investigate the tourists’ preference. Ten attributes of tourist destinations were used in this study. Fuzzy set theory was adopted as the main analysis method to find the tourists’ preference. In this study, 248 pieces of data were used. Besides the evaluations for the factors, the overall evaluations (namely, satisfied, neutral, and dissatisfied) for every tourism destination were also inquired. After screening, 201 pieces of these data could be used. In these 201 pieces of data, 141 were classified into “satisfied” with the tourism destination, accounting for 70.15%, and 49 were “neutral,” accounting for 24.38%, while 11 were “dissatisfied,” accounting for 5.47%. Eight rules were obtained with the method of fuzzy preprocess. Regarding the condition attributes, three of the original ten attributes were found influential, namely, level of prices, living costs, information and tourist services, and tourist safety of the tourism destinations. From the results of this study, it is shown that top management of tourism destinations should put resources in these fields first, in order to allow limited resources to perform to maximum effectiveness.

Utilizing transaction-specific customer satisfaction theory within tourism marketing, this research investigates how tour services elicit international tourists' satisfaction and contribute to tourists' loyalty to a destination. The research was conducted using 356 international tourists visiting destination sites in Cape Coast who answered questions regarding tour services: accommodation, food services, tour guide performance, souvenir shopping, and community interaction. Structural equation modeling was used to test the six proposed hypotheses based on validated survey data from the tourists. The data revealed that community interactions, souvenir shopping, and accommodation had positive effects while food services and tour guide performance negatively influenced international tourist satisfaction. Additionally, tourist satisfaction had a positive effect on tourist loyalty. The results suggest that effective tour services encounter and tourist satisfaction can promote local city economies at destination via recommendations or revisitation of international tourists due to their memorable and unforgettable experiences. Again, the outcome of this research validates the usefulness of the transaction-specific customer satisfaction theory within city tourism literature and will help tourism officials, city managers, city developers, businesses, and tourism practitioners to have a better understanding of the studied core tour services within context.

Responsible tourism implies that all actors involved in tourism take responsibility for their actions. The concept of responsible tourism has been extensively addressed in tourism research and practice. However, studies analyzing the tourists’ contribution to responsible tourism have been neglected. Considering that tourists have the potential to contribute to economic, environmental socio-cultural, and institutional sustainability, this study focuses on the role tourists can play in responsible tourism. It also examines how responsible behavior among tourists has been triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, drawing on a planned behavior perspective by concentrating on the tourist contribution to sustainable tourism, responsible tourism behavior is investigated by means of 19 semi-structured interviews. The study found that tourists are not only sensitive to sustainability but that they also behave responsibly both on site and in their travel choices. At the same time, tourists pass the buck to suppliers and providers by requesting rules, information and opportunities for responsible tourism to be created. In this regard, implications for theory and practice can be derived by informing suppliers and providers about their requested responsibilities, as well as by adding a crisis perspective to the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB).

Although some studies claim that tourism commercialization can promote the authentic experience and behaviour of tourists, there is a lack of empirical support. The main purpose of this study is to identify whether tourism commercialization can positively impact tourists’ perceived authenticity and tourist satisfaction in the context of cultural heritage tourism. We divide tourism authenticity into objective authenticity, constructive authenticity, existential authenticity and postmodern authenticity and propose a relationship model of tourism commercialization, the four authenticities, tourist satisfaction and loyalty. A survey was conducted in Langzhong Ancient City, a representative millennium-old county in China. A total of 618 valid domestic tourist questionnaires were collected. The partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) suitable for theory development was used for the conceptual model validation. The results indicate that tourism commercialization positively affects objective, constructive, existential and postmodern authenticity and tourist satisfaction; the four authenticities positively affect tourist satisfaction, while only objective and existential authenticity and tourist satisfaction positively affect tourist loyalty. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Ecocultural tourism is a hybrid of ecotourism and cultural tourism. This research deals with ecocultural tourism in Tegal Regency, Central Java, Indonesia. The purpose of this research is to investigate the hybridity of ecotourism and cultural tourism in the Tegal Regency. This research uses ecocultural theory and ecocultural tourism theory. The methods applied in this research are library research and fieldwork. Library research is applied to collect informative data about ecocultural tourism. The fieldwork is applied to collect data by interviewing the informants of tourism in Tegal Regency. By applying the theory and the methods, it is found that the hybridity of ecotourism and cultural tourism becomes the strategy to develop ecocultural tourism in Tegal Regency. On the one hand, ecocultural events relate to natural conservations; on the other hand, the events related to cultural conservations. The ecocultural tourism events become the prime tourist attractions that are able to attract local, domestic, and foreign tourists.

Sweden’s tourism industry stands out for its large contribution to the development of the national economy. The vast size of the country makes it possible to trace differences in incoming tourist flows from neighbouring countries. This circumstance accounts for the novelty of this study, which lies in viewing national tourism geography from the perspective of the theory of transboundary tourism-and-recreation region building. Interregional differences in the structure of incoming tourist flows help identify the country’s cross-border tourism-and-recreation regions and delineate their borders. This research employs statistical and cartographic methods. The incoming tourist flow to Sweden grew steadily until 2020. However, the Covid-19 crisis has led to a drastic reduction in the number of incoming tourists. Based on the 2019 statistics, the findings confirm the existence of a developed transboundary tourism-and-recreation mesoregion that brings together Germany, Denmark, and Sweden. The formation boasts strong tourist links. There are another five cross-border tourism-and-recreation mesoregions: Sweden-Norway-Denmark, Middle Sweden-Norway, Sweden-Norway-Finland, Middle Sweden-Finland, and South Sweden-Finland. The number of tourists visiting cross-border mesoregions indicates the degree of development of the latter.

While ethical tourism is becoming more important in the tourist industry, relatively little is known about ethical tourism in China and what motivates Chinese tourists to undertake ethical tourism. This study examines this issue by adopting the planned behavior theory to explore the impact of Chinese tourists’ personal factors, positive social influence, image of destination and quality of services on their behavioral intentions in order to better understand what motivate Chinese tourists to participate ethical tourism. The results show that knowledge of ethical tourism, attitude toward ethical tourism, influences from family and friends, and local environment of the destinations are the key factors that drive Chinese tourists to undertake ethical tourism. In addition, service customization, service support and past experiences with ethical tourism are also important determinants of tourists’ satisfaction with ethical tourism, which further affects Chinese tourists’ intention to visit. Implications for ethical tourism marketing and management are then discussed with reference to how to promote more ethical tourism.

ABSTRACT In this thesis, the researcher investigates the implicit and other motivations for Saudi outbound tourism. The Saudi Arabian outbound tourism market is recognised as one of the biggest tourism expenditure. Despite this, research relating to the motivations for Saudi outbound tourism, especially the implicit motives is sparse. It is in response to this that the researcher carried out this study and additionally, examined the influence of Saudi culture, demographic variables and tourists motivations on destination selection. This study employs a model entitled “Integration Model of Explicit and Implicit Motives” of Push and Pull Factors developed by the researcher to examine the explicit and implicit motives of Saudi outbound tourism. Data was collected from 486 Saudi outbound tourists (81% of the total sample) who travelled to three destinations (Bahrain, Egypt and France). Factor analyses were conducted to identify tourism motivation and cultural factors of Saudi society. Pearson correlation was used to find the relationship between push and pull factors of tourism motivation (explicit and implicit) and the relationship between Saudi culture and push and pull factors of tourism motivation (explicit and implicit). A series of ANOVA and T-tests were employed to examine the influence of demographic variables on tourism motivations. Logistic regression and multinomial logistic regression were used to find out the influence of tourism motivations, cultural factors and demographic variables on destination selection. The results of the factor analyses of explicit motives in this study identified seven push factors and four pull factors. The six push factors (intrinsic desire) extracted were: 'escape', 'prestige', 'social and sport', 'experience and excitement', 'enjoying natural resources', 'knowledge' and 'relaxation'. The four pull factors (attributes of destination) identified as underlying dimensions were 'expenditure', 'outdoor activities', 'natural and historical' and 'weather and environment'. In relation to the implicit motives, the factor analysis identified two push factors and three pull factors. The push factors were 'alcohol and sex desires' and 'fun and freedom desires'. On the other hand, the pull factors were 'alcohol and sex attractions', 'drugs attraction' and 'fun and freedom attractions'. The factor analysis of cultural items resulted in seven underlying domains, that include 'uncertainty avoidance', 'individualism', 'differences of groups in society (power distance)', 'social interdependence (collectivism)', 'helping others (collectivism)', 'inequalities and hierarchy (power distance)' and 'family relationship (collectivism)'. The Pearson's correlation analyses found significant correlations between the majority of push and pull dimensions in both explicit and implicit motives in all destinations. Moreover, the Pearson's correlation revealed a significant correlation between tourism motivations (push and pull factors), in both explicit and implicit motives, with cultural factors in all destinations under study (Bahrain, Egypt and France). The results of ANOVA and T-tests indicate significant differences in tourist's motivations according to the differences in demographic variables of tourists (age, income education, gender and martial statues). In other words, the demographic variables have an influence on tourism motivations. The findings of logistic regression and multinomial logistic regression indicate that the tourism motivations, cultural factors and demographic variables have an influence on destination selection. Moreover, the researcher carried out 25 interviewees This was in order to validate the results that were obtained from the quantitative approach regarding to tourism motivation of Saudi outbound tourists (explicit and implicit), cultural factors that describe the Saudi society, and to confirm the usefulness of using the third person technique to investigate sensitive issues. The results obtained from the interviews are similar to the results obtained from the questionnaires (quantitative approach). In relation to the usefulness of using the third person technique in investigating sensitive issues, the result of the interviews revealed that the third person technique has proved as one of the acceptable technique to get information about sensitive issues especially with countries that have values grounded on their religious heritage.

This study develops and tests a theoretical model drawing on social psychological and resource-mobilization perspectives of social movement theory to explain changes in social movement participation and support for activism among Earthwatch Expedition volunteers. The social psychological perspective of social movements recognizes the role of self-efficacy and consciousness-raising for the participation in and success of social movement organizations. The resource mobilization perspective of social movements stresses rationality and the importance of funding and networks for the success of social movement organizations. Utilizing these two theoretical perspectives as my foundation, I hypothesize that participation in an Earthwatch Expedition increases volunteers' participation in social movement organizations in ways such as making monetary donations, voting with the organization's platform in mind, or attending rallies and marches. I also hypothesize that volunteers will increase their support for others who participate in these same types of activities. Earthwatch Expeditions are a form of alternative tourism in which volunteers participate in any of 126 different types of 10-14 day research-oriented expeditions that may include evaluating the health of a coral reef, studying maternal health among west African women, assessing the killer whale population off the coast of Puget Sound, or recording oral history in Dominica. I conducted pre- and post-trip surveys in June and July of 1998, resulting in 363 completed surveys. I analyzed data using multiple regression to discover relationships between pre-trip and post-trip measures of social movement participation, activism support, networks, self-efficacy, and consciousness-raising. In other words, I explored ways in which an alternative tourism experience like Earthwatch can change a person's ideas about their own social movement participation, the social movement activities of others, their perceived ability to overcome obstacles in order to implement social change, and their awareness of social issues. Results suggest that participation in an Earthwatch Expedition has a positive effect on volunteers' social movement participation, their awareness of social issues, their networks, and their ability to overcome obstacles, but little effect on activism support.
Ph. D.

There is currently much debate about how knowledge of tourism can and indeed should be produced. Tourism knowledge production is criticised to rely too much on Western values with limited research methods. Although tourism, as a field of study is considered as demonstrating a notable “critical turn” in recent years with the evidence of several books and journals published in response to this trend, the situation is not really as optimistic as it seems to be. This study seeks to redress this issue. The first part of the study-the theory of conceptual research in tourism- contributes to the “methodological turn”. It focused on conceptual research which is an existing research strategy but has been somewhat overlooked in the methodological studies especially in tourism field. The idea originated from the process of identifying the research type and a proper research method for the research question that makes the concept(s) as the research object. By reviewing the methodological literatures, the rationale and existing definitions of conceptual research were discussed and presented. A sample of 471 tourism journal articles was determined to examine the conceptual research in tourism. The quantitative content analysis revealed that conceptual research is somewhat overlooked in the tourism research academy. The qualitative content analysis developed a typology of twelve conceptual research approaches in conceptual research by analysing 46 pure conceptual research articles. Based on the discussions and analysis, conceptual research in tourism was defined and nine quality issues of conceptual research were illustrated. The second part of the study –the practice of conceptual research (the reinterpretation of sustainable tourism in the light of Confucianism and Taoism) - is the advocating of the “cultural turn” which lags behind the “methodological turn”. The twelve conceptual research approaches developed in the first part were applied to analyse the concepts of Confucianism, Taoism and sustainable tourism. The definitions, developments and clarifications of Confucianism, Taoism and sustainable tourism were presented. Eleven Confucian values, three Taoist values and seven existing sustainable tourism principles were abstracted. And then the Confucian and Taoist values were translated to sustainable tourism with the results of the sustainable tourism principles were reinterpreted and sustainable tourism was reconceptualised in the light of Confucianism and Taoism.

Tourism social networking sites (SNSs) are websites that provide users with templates for describing their travel experiences and an infrastructure to share such travel posts with a network of like-minded individuals. Tourism SNSs represent an important advertising channel for the tourism industry, as they may assist travelers in selecting destinations and planning vacations on the basis of other travelers’ experiences, which may further stimulate travel and generate income for the tourism industry (Yazdanifard & Yee, 2014). User-generated content (UGC) in the form of travel posts is the core offering and key success factor of tourism SNSs. Travel posts constitute a valuable resource that attracts users to these websites, and they serve as a key data feed into the data mining process that is used to develop travel products on tourism SNSs. However, one problem with tourism SNSs is that their users, especially the new ones, do not publish their travel experiences on these SNSs as often as they do on traditional SNSs, such as Facebook. This may result in a lack of content and, therefore, a loss of potential consumers and, consequently, revenue. Therefore, a study on self-disclosure behavior in writing travel posts may contribute to understanding the reasons why this problem exists and help tourism SNSs improve their service accordingly. The author used multiple theoretical perspectives (social exchange theory and social cognition theory) to develop a comprehensive self-disclosure framework. The framework was tested by using a partial least squares based structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) approach with data from 443 participants recruited from the two most popular Chinese tourism SNSs: Qyer.com and mafengwo.cn. The findings show that self-disclosure behavior on tourism SNSs was significantly affected by self-benefit, positive feedback from other users, social benefits, rewards, tourism SNSs’ security mechanism, and ease of use. However, habit and motive did not have a statistically significant effect on self-disclosure behavior. Moreover, self-disclosure behavior positively affected electronic word of mouth (EWOM) relating to the tourism SNSs. Finally, the findings have theoretical and practical implications, and the thesis ends with a discussion of the limitations of this study and suggestions for future research.

Background: The tourism industry is one of the largest industries in the world, with annual revenues exceeding US$ 850 billion. Because of the size and nature of the industry, tourism is seen as one of the largest contributors to the negative effects on the environment today. Within the tourism industry, there exist more than 70 eco-labels representing various environmental standards. However, none of them are widely used within the tourism industry.

Purpose: This thesis investigates how the use of the two eco-labels Svanen and Green Globe affect Swedish students’ perception of a package tour marketing campaign. It investigates how students’ perceptions of advertisement differ between advertisement for package tours with and without incorporated eco-labels.

Method: The study uses a mixed method with a sequential explanatory strategy. The quantitative part consists of a survey and the qualitative part consists of follow up interviews with a number of interviewees who are all respondents in the quantitative part. This thesis primarily focuses on the quantitative part, which consists of three questionnaires, one of which contains an advertisement for Ving, and two which used the same advertisement but which have been manipulated to include Green Globe and Svanen respectively.

Conclusion: The conclusion of the study is that students’ perception of advertisement does not differ between the advertisement not using an eco-label and the ones manipulated to include Green Globe or Svanen. The reasons to why the perception does not differ are explained by eco-labels having failed in communicating what they stand for. Students have limited financial resources, which constrains them from behaving in an environmentally friendly way. In addition, the advertisement including eco-lables is congruent with the students’ perception about the brand Ving as an environmentally friendly company. There is however factors that indicate that eco-labelling in the tourism industry can work as a partial solution for a more sustainable future.

Bakgrund: Turismindustrin är en av de största industrierna i världen, med årliga inkomster på över US$ 850 miljarder. På grund av storleken och dess påverkan, anses turismen vara en av de största orsakerna till den negativa utvecklingen av miljön. Inom turismindustrin existerar mer än 70 miljö märkningar som representerar olika miljöstandarder. Dock har inga av dem sett någon större användning inom turismindustrin.

Syfte: Syftet med denna rapport är att undersöka hur användning av de två miljömärkningarna Green Globe och Svanen påverkar studenters uppfattning av en reklamkampanj för charter resor. Den undersöker hur studenters uppfattning om reklam för charter resor skiljer sig mellan reklam som använder miljömärkning och den som inte gör det.

Metod: Denna studie använder en blandad metod med en sekventiell strategi. Den kvantitativa delen består av enkätundersökningar och för den kvalitativa delen används intervjuer med några deltagare från den kvantitativa delen. Störst fokus ligger på den kvantitativa delen som består av tre olika enkäter, en som innehåller en reklam bild på Ving, och två som manipulerats att innehålla Green Globe respektive Svanen.

Slutsats: Slutsatsen av studien är att studenters uppfattning om annonserna inte skiljer sig mellan annonsen utan miljömärkning och de som manipulerats med Green Globe eller Svanen. Anledning till att uppfattningen inte skiljer sig kan förklaras av att miljö märkningarna har misslyckats med att kommunicera vad dem står för. Studenterna har begränsade ekonomiska resurser och detta begränsar dem att uppföra sig på ett miljövänligt sätt. Dessutom överrensstämmer reklamen som innehöll miljö märkning med studenternas uppfattning om varumärket Ving som ett miljö vänligt företag. Det finns dock faktorer som tyder på att miljömärkning inom turistnäringen kan fungera som en del av lösningen för en mer hållbar framtid.

The overall aim of this qualitative study is to investigate the area of new sustainable tourism in theory and practice. The theoretical part, which consisted of a literature study, was made to help find the essence of new sustainable tourism. To bring out tourisms impact on society and environment in practice, a case study was made during an excursion with Södertörn University College to Babati in Tanzania. Semi structured interviews were held with people in Babati. The excursion is being evaluated according to WTO’s sustainable tourism development guidelines and management practices, and finally, these guidelines are analysed. The result of the literature study showed that there is no absolute true core in new sustainable tourism. It is a highly subjective judgment if a tourism venture is sustainable or not, depending on personal values, ideology and personal interests. There is features commonly associated and used in new sustainable tourism, like the sustainability of the three pillars of sustainable development, and the focus on the local, educational and conservational effects, but the essence is subjective. The evaluation of the excursion showed that it is by two third a sustainable tourism venture. It is the economic part that fails, since the guidelines put much focus on stable employments and frequency; ingredients that the excursion lacks. The analysis of the WTO guidelines resulted in confusion. They could be both very useful, but also very poor, according to how they were interpreted and used. The results highly depend on the user. Positive is that the guidelines address all pillars of sustainable development equal, and that the interaction between host and guest gets highlighted. Shortages are that the guidelines lack a gender perspective, a historical and political sensibility, a place specific flexibility and a perspective of inter- and intra-generational equity.

The South African National Department of Tourism has recently initiated the National Tourism Sector Strategy aimed at developing a sustainable tourism economy, and making the country a Top 20 global tourism destination by 2020.China is one of South Africa’s major non-African sources of tourist arrivals. To ensure a growing share of this booming market, South African tourism scholars and practitioners have to pay close attention to the behaviour of Chinese outbound tourists, particularly their destination choice behaviour. The Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB)– an extension of the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA)– can serve as a basis for researching destination choice. According to the TPB literature, intention is the most immediate and important determinant of behaviour. Three direct predictors of intention, namely, attitude, subjective norms, and perceived control, are functions of latent behavioural, normative, and control beliefs, respectively. The TPB is parsimonious but open to the inclusion of additional predictors if there is evidence that these predictors may explain a significant proportion of the variance in intention and behaviour after the basic predictors (attitude, subjective norms, and perceived control) have been accounted for. The current research successfully extended the TPB model for predicting potential Chinese tourists’ intentions to visit South Africa by adding two additional variables: travel motivation and travel constraints. The push-pull motivation framework discussed in the study postulates that people travel because they are pushed by internal forces (inner needs) and pulled by external forces (destination attributes). Typical barriers to travel include intrapersonal, interpersonal, and structural constraints. The new model makes an important contribution to the literature on destination choice, and provides South Africa’s destination marketers with suggestions for attracting and serving Chinese tourists. In addition, the research shows that both travel motivation and travel constraints can be used as bases for segmenting the outbound Chinese tourist market interested in visiting South Africa. A survey approach and a structured questionnaire distributed electronically to the online panel members of a Chinese market research company were instrumental in collecting the empirical data for the study. The questionnaire was originally written in English and translated into Chinese (Mandarin) via a blind translation-back-translation method. Attitude, subjective norms, perceived control, and visit intention were all operationalised as unidimensional and used scales adapted from previous studies. New scales were developed for travel motivation and travel constraints– both operationalised as multidimensional. Quota sampling, used to identify respondents aged 18 or older and living in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, resulted in 630 usable questionnaires obtained from 1,510 sent invitation e-mails, yielding a response rate of 41.7%. The raw data collected were prepared through the sequential steps of editing, coding, and filing, and then analysed using both descriptive and inferential statistics. Descriptive analysis suggested that broadening personal horizons, viewing the natural scenery, and seeing something different were the top motives for visiting South Africa, while language, fear of crime, and lack of travel companions were the top barriers to visiting South Africa. According to the factor analysis, travel motivation had three underlying dimensions – learning, escape, and aesthetics and appreciation, while operational, risk and fear, and social barriers were three underlying dimensions of travel constraints. Regression analysis showed that the proposed extended TPB model had higher predictive power for visit intention than both TRA and TPB models; the basic predictors – attitude, subjective norms, and perceived control – all had a significant impact on visit intention; and in terms of the additional predictors, learning, operational constraints, and social constraints had a significant impact on visit intention. The analysis of variance indicated that travel frequency and age were the most profound background factors with an influence on the extended TPB model. Finally, cluster analysis resulted in two market segments with distinct profiles, that is, High-Motivation/ Low-Constraint (HMLC) tourists and Low-Motivation/High-Constraint (LMHC) tourists. Based on the theoretical and empirical findings of the current research, it is recommended that destination marketers in South Africa: advertise specific benefits of touring South Africa, namely, increasing knowledge, relieving stress, and enjoying high environmental quality, to advance Chinese residents’ perceptions of the country; develop tourism experiences that can be taken in a week or shorter to cater for the unique annual leave and public holiday policy in China; launch a media relations campaign in China to ensure that the facts about South Africa are communicated without distortion; collaborate with other destination stakeholders such as government and businesses, to actively attract and retain Chinese tourists for example by educating the public about Chinese culture and training employees to improve the quality of service; target the HMLC tourists via the Internet (particularly the social media) and by developing holiday packages that include activities related to cultural tourism, rest and relaxation, and nature-based tourism; and target the LMHC tourists by cooperating with local travel agencies and by developing holiday packages that highlight the diversity of tourism activities and offer value-added products/services.

Like other Small Island Developing States (SIDS), Caribbean island economies have intrinsic characteristics that make them vulnerable to external shocks. The recent pandemic highlights the structural problems of small island economies. Due to their remote location and small size, islands lack economies of scale and rely on global supply chains, which are currently disrupted. Islands depend either on service-based economic activities like tourism, which are being affected during the current crisis, or on a single commodity, which makes them extremely vulnerable. Islands must rethink their approach to development, adopting one of sustainable development. The Sustainable Islands Platform aims to create a new approach that targets the needs of Caribbean islands and prescribes circular economy-inspired interventions in key areas such as sanitation, waste management, agriculture, fisheries, tourism, energy, transportation, and health. Traditional approaches have not proven successful in solving developing problems on SIDS. Therefore, a new concept that considers islands in a new way should be considered.

Countries around the world have endured over a year of extreme uncertainty in the context of the COVID-19 crisis, and economies in the Caribbean have suffered more than most. But with the increasing availability of vaccines and prospects for a resumption of international travel, light is emerging at the end of the Pandemic tunnel. With this in mind, The Inter-American Development Bank Caribbean1 Departments most recent Quarterly Bulletin reviews the latest available information regarding the crisis impacts on citizens, their economies, and key factors that will determine the speed and depth of recovery. As also discussed in previous editions, prospects for tourism-dependent economies will depend heavily on vaccine penetration and border normalization in source countries particularly the United States and Western Europe, while commodity-intensive economies could benefit from upward revisions to global demand growth estimates. All countries in the region can do much to support a rapid recovery through forward-looking policies aimed at ensuring they are well positioned to take advantage of post-Pandemic preferences with respect to travel and tourism, services trade, and investment. Our latest report considers these issues, what may lie ahead, and how counties can best position themselves for a recovery in 2021 and beyond.

This paper presents an alternative to the current use of gasoline and diesel for transportation in Barbados. By relying on experimental evidence, it shows that biomethane emanating from the combination of Sargassum seaweed that is found on the seashores of the country with wastewater from rum distillery production can be used to produce an alternative transportation fuel. If implemented successfully, this alternative combustion method can avoid as much as 1 million metric tons of CO2 emissions every year in the country. These findings have important implications for policymakers. First, they can contribute to the national objective of becoming fossil fuel free by 2030 and diversifying the energy matrix. Second, this alternative fuel can improve resilience to natural catastrophes, complementing the transition to renewables and diversification of the sector. Third, the impact on the tourism industry is expected to be high and positive, as the Sargassum seaweed has been declared a national emergency due to its prevalence on beach tourism spots.

This report explores the implications of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) on the future of the job market in Cambodia. It assesses how jobs, tasks, and skills are being transformed, particularly in tourism and garment manufacturing as the top two industries with the largest employment in the country. These two industries are likely to benefit from the transformational effect of 4IR, if there is adequate investment in jobs, skills, and training. The report is part of series developed from an Asian Development Bank study on trends in skills demand in Cambodia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Viet Nam.

The Women’s Handicrafts Production Cooperative is a success story that has transformed the lives of its members, who had been finding it hard to obtain employment. They are now focused on creating their own enterprise. Started in 2018, today the cooperative’s membership has expanded tenfold and created employment opportunities by using the principles of social solidarity economy and collective business models. The Youth Participation and Employment (YPE) project in Egypt, developed in partnership with the Better Life Association for Community Development (BLACD), provided technical training to the cooperative in handicrafts production, as well as life skills training, to empower the workers to continue despite all the societal pressure for them to give up. Assistance from BLACD came in when it was needed. Particularly during the COVID-19 crisis, with the tourism market shut down, BLACD has provided crucial technical advice and support, supporting the cooperative to brainstorm and identify several parallel income-generating activities. This case study contains some testimonies from members of the cooperative on how their collective strength was harnessed to create employment and income.

For more than a year, the Caribbean economics team at the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) has focused on the potential implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for lives and livelihoods across the region. The pandemic is still with us, but there is hope that the cycles of lockdowns and containment measures will eventually come to an end as vaccination programs progress, even if unevenly, across the region. However, the availability of vaccine supply remains a concern, and the pandemic continues to pose a constraint for the recovery of key sectors such as tourism and local services sectors. This edition of the Caribbean Quarterly Bulletin focuses on two topics: (1) forecasts of key macroeconomic variables, based on the April 2021 WEO, and (2) financial sector risks. In general, regional economies are embarking on a fragile path to recovery. Continued progress with vaccination programs, credible medium-term fiscal programs, and continued attention to financial vulnerabilities will be needed to push that path to recovery forward.

Coral reefs are one of the most diverse and valuable ecosystems on Earth. The Mesoamerican Reef contains the largest barrier reef in the Western Hemisphere. However, its health is threatened, so there is a need for a management and sustainable conservation. Key to this is knowing the economic value of the ecosystem. “Mainstreaming the value of natural capital into policy decision-making is vital” The value of environmental and natural resources reflects what society is willing to pay for a good or service or to conserve natural resources. Conventional economic approaches tended to view value only in terms of the willingness to pay for raw materials and physical products generated for human production and consumption (e.g. fish, mining materials, pharmaceutical products, etc.). As recognition of the potential negative impacts of human activity on the environment became more widespread, economists began to understand that people might also be willing to pay for other reasons beyond the own current use of the service (e.g. to protect coral reefs from degradation or to know that coral reefs will remain intact in the future). As a result of this debate, Total Economic Value (TEV) became the most widely used and commonly accepted framework for classifying economic benefits of ecosystems and for trying to integrate them into decision-making. This report estimates the economic value of the following goods and services provided by the MAR's coral reefs: Tourism & Recreation, Fisheries, Shoreline protection. To our knowledge, the inclusion of non-use values in the economic valuation of the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System is novel, which makes the study more comprehensive.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.