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Littérature scientifique sur le sujet « Vote behavior »

Auteur : Grafiati

Publié le 26 avril 2025

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Articles de revues sur le sujet "Vote behavior"

Giné, Xavier, et Ghazala Mansuri. « Together We Will : Experimental Evidence on Female Voting Behavior in Pakistan ». American Economic Journal : Applied Economics 10, n^o 1 (1 janvier 2018) : 207–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/app.20130480.

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In many emerging democracies women are less likely to vote than men and, when they do vote, are likely to follow the wishes of male household and clan heads. We assess the impact of a voter awareness campaign on female turnout, candidate choice and party vote shares. Geographic clusters within villages were randomly assigned to treatment or control, and within treated clusters, some households were not targeted. Compared to women in control clusters, both targeted and untargeted women in treated clusters are 11 percentage points more likely to vote, and are also more likely to exercise independence in candidate choice, indicating large spillovers. Data from polling stations suggests that treating 10 women increased female turnout by about seven votes, resulting in a cost per vote of US$3.1. Finally, a 10 percent increase in the share of treated women at the polling station led to a 7 percent decrease in the share of votes of the winning party. (JEL D72, J12, J16, O12, O17, Z13)

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Coleman, Stephen. « The Effect of Social Conformity on Collective Voting Behavior ». Political Analysis 12, n^o 1 (2004) : 76–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpg015.

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This article investigates the effect of social conformity on voting behavior. Past research shows that many people vote to conform with the social norm that voting is a civic duty. The hypothesis here is that when conformity motivates people to vote, it also stimulates conformist behavior among some voters when they decide which party to vote for. This produces a distinctive relationship between voter turnout and the distribution of votes among parties—a relationship not anticipated by rational choice theory. I test a mathematical model of this behavior with linear and nonlinear regression analyses of state-level data for presidential elections in the United States from 1904 to 1996, longitudinal data on parliamentary elections in Western Europe over most of the twentieth century, and cross-sectional data for recent elections in Western Europe, Eastern Europe, and Russia. The results generally validate the model.

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Stegmaier, Mary, Kamil Marcinkiewicz et Michael Jankowski. « The Effects of Electoral Rules on Parliamentary Behavior ». East European Politics and Societies : and Cultures 30, n^o 4 (27 septembre 2016) : 885–906. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0888325416670240.

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Do different types of preferential-list PR systems create different incentives for how Members of Parliament vote? To examine this, we compare the quasi-list system of Poland, where only preference votes determine which candidates win seats, to the flexible-list system in the Czech Republic, where the 5 percent preference vote threshold required to override the party ranking of candidates gives the party greater power in influencing which candidates become MPs. We analyze roll call votes in the 2007–2011 Sejm and the 2010–2013 Czech Chamber of Deputies and, after controlling for party and MP characteristics, we find that in both countries, MPs with lower preference vote shares are more likely to vote along with their party. But, when we compare the strength of this relationship, we observe substantial differences. The magnitude of this relationship in the Czech Republic is ten times stronger than in Poland, which can be attributed to the more prominent role Czech electoral rules give to the party.

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Agbo, Benedict Obiora, Chidiebere Anthony Ezinwa et Ijeoma Geraldine Ewelu. « Influence of Yiaga Africa Vote Buying Media Campaign on the Attitude of Voters in Enugu State ». International Journal of Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) and Essays 8, n^o 1 (1 juillet 2024) : 27–50. https://doi.org/10.37745/ijngoe.16/vol13n12750.

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This study examines the Influence of Yiaga Africa vote buying media campaign on the attitude of voters in Enugu state. The objectives include; to ascertain the Enugu state level of awareness about Yiaga Africa vote buying media campaign; to determine the extent Yiaga Africa vote buying media campaign influences the attitude of voters in Enugu state; to determine the extent Yiaga Africa vote buying media campaign influences the behavior of voters in Enugu state, and to evaluate the challenges militating against Yiaga’s campaign against vote buying in Enugu state. The research design used for this study is the Descriptive survey method. The population of the study is 1450000, the sample size of 400 was determined using the Taro yamane formula while the sampling technique used is the Random Sampling Technique. Findings from the study reveals that Yiaga Africa votes buying media campaign influenced the attitude of voters in Enugu state and the campaign influenced the behavior of voters in Enugu state to a large extent it was also found that the challenges affecting the acceptance of Yiaga Africa campaigns against Vote buying is poverty and the attitude of politicians. The researchers recommended that there should be an introduction of electronic voting system which could potentially reduce the act of votes buying and selling in elections. It was also recommended that Nigerian government should create employment opportunities and reduce the level of poverty that makes people susceptible to criminal, financial and material inducement. More so, Yiaga Africa needs to intensify voter education and enlightenment campaigns on the negative implications of vote trading. In conclusion, Yiaga Africa should create awareness on the incidence of vote buying so that electoral fraud and manipulation of voters will reduce.

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Southwell, Priscilla. « Vote-by-Mail : Voter Preferences and Self-Reported Voting Behavior in the State of Oregon ». American Review of Politics 28 (1 juillet 2007) : 139–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.15763/issn.2374-7781.2007.28.0.139-146.

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This research analyzes the results of a recent survey in Oregon in order to assess recent opinion on vote-by-mail and also to estimate the effect of vote-by-mail on the turnout of various demographic and partisan groups. The results show that Oregonians have maintained their overwhelming support for vote-by-mail elections—in particular, women, Independents, Republicans, and older voters. Self-reported responses regarding frequency of voting indicate that women and the employed are most likely to indicate that they have voted more often since the adoption of vote-by-mail. This survey also suggests that this increased turnout under vote-by-mail does not give an advantage to a particular party’s candidates.

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Kamijo, Yoshio, Yoichi Hizen, Tatsuyoshi Saijo et Teruyuki Tamura. « Voting on Behalf of a Future Generation : A Laboratory Experiment ». Sustainability 11, n^o 16 (7 août 2019) : 4271. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11164271.

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This paper investigates a new voting rule wherein some people are given extra votes to serve as proxies for future generations. We predict that this voting scheme affects the voting behavior of those who do not receive an extra vote (i.e., single-ballot voters) because they are less likely to become a pivot, while proxy voters are expected to behave in support of the future generation. To test this prediction, we compare three scenarios wherein single-ballot voters would cast a vote: (a) one-voter-one-vote scenario wherein all voters cast only a single ballot; (b) a standard proxy-voting scenario wherein other voters cast two ballots, and the second vote is to cast for the benefit of a future generation; and (c) a non-proxy-voting scenario wherein other voters cast two ballots with no explanation for the second vote. The result shows that single-ballot voters are less inclined to vote for the future-oriented option in (c) than in (a). This indicates the potential drawback of the new voting scheme. However, there is no difference in the single-ballot voters’ decision between (a) and (b), indicating that the explanation of the second ballot as the proxy is important for reducing the intergenerational inequality through this voting reform.

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Cinar, Selin. « Define and Explain the Concept of Rationality in the Context of Voting and Political Behavior ». Advances in Social Science and Culture 5, n^o 4 (28 septembre 2023) : p28. http://dx.doi.org/10.22158/assc.v5n4p28.

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Voter behavior is the study of how people vote at the time of voting and what factors influence their voting behavior through political participation. According to Harrop and Miller, voting behavior is influenced by the sociological aspects of individuals or societies, such as occupational groups, origins, gender, and age, while for politicians; voting is influenced by political programs and campaigns implemented by politicians. The aim of this research paper is to investigate the rationality of voting and voter behavior in both sociological and political ways and to present the characteristics that should be present in order to vote rationally.

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Adhinata, Made Bayu Permana. « Vote Buying dan Perilaku Pemilih Pemula : Kasus Pemilihan Gubernur Bali 2018 di Tabanan ». Politika : Jurnal Ilmu Politik 10, n^o 2 (31 octobre 2019) : 163. http://dx.doi.org/10.14710/politika.10.2.2019.157-169.

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This article discusses vote-buying as a phenomenon in the 2018th Bali local head election process which affects the voting behavior of youth voters in Tabanan Regency. This research applies to qualitative methods. The research found that there is a linkage of giving money and gift as a form of aid to the society before and during the election can affect youth voter voting preferences. This article argues that the preference of youth voters influenced by their communities where they live and they herded to choose what community say so. Vote-buying in the form of ‘aid’ are liked by the community and youth voter seen it as something ordinary in the socio-political situation. With vote-buying strategy, the candidate can easily obtain a vote, especially from youth voter who has not yet decided their choice. In addition, vote-buying became a kind of magnet to attract youth voter sympathy.

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Garrett, John C., et Charles I. Brooks. « Effect of Ballot Color, Sex of Candidate, and Sex of College Students of Voting Age on Their Voting Behavior ». Psychological Reports 60, n^o 1 (février 1987) : 39–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.2466/pr0.1987.60.1.39.

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College students were asked to vote for one of two hypothetical candidates for political office. Three studies examined the influence of color of ballot (pink or green), sex of candidate, and sex of voter. Men generally preferred a green ballot and women preferred pink. Also, men tended to vote for men, and women tended to vote for women. Color of ballot interacted with candidate's sex in an unexpected way. For both male and female voters, the highest preference shown for a candidate was when the candidate was the same sex as the voter but whose platform was printed on the less favorable color.

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ABOU-CHADI, TARIK, et LUKAS F. STOETZER. « How Parties React to Voter Transitions ». American Political Science Review 114, n^o 3 (23 avril 2020) : 940–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0003055420000155.

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This letter investigates how voter transitions between parties affect parties’ policy positioning. While a growing literature investigates the role of election results as signals for parties’ policy adaption, it has mostly focused on vote changes of individual parties. However, parties do not know only whether they have won or lost in an election; they also have detailed information on which parties they won votes from and which parties they lost votes to. We make two arguments about how voter transitions should affect the strategic policy choices of political parties. First, when a party has lost votes to another party it will adapt its policy positions toward that party. Second, parties that have overall lost more votes become more likely to adapt their positions. Making use of a data set on individual voter transitions and party positions we can demonstrate that voter transitions indeed affect parties’ competitive behavior.

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Thèses sur le sujet "Vote behavior"

Adojutelegan, Nat. « Vote-Selling : Infrastructure and Public Services ». ScholarWorks, 2018. https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations/4829.

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Vote-selling in Nigeria pervades and permeates the electoral space, where it has become the primary instrument of electoral fraud. Previous research has indicated a strong correlation between vote-buying and underinvestment and poor delivery of public services. There remains, however, a significant gap in the current literature regarding the nature of the relationship between vote-selling and the delivery of public services. The purpose of this study was to uncover voters' behaviors by investigating their common and lived experiences with respect to the provision of infrastructure, delivery of public services, and voting during elections. Using Bandura's theory of reciprocal determinism, the research explored the connection between environment and vote-selling. Data were collected through semistructured interviews with 10 individuals who participated in the most recent elections in Akoko North West Local Government, Ondo State, Nigeria. The data were analyzed using Moustakas's transcendental phenomenological process. Key findings suggest a reciprocal relationship between vote-selling, and infrastructure and public services. The study findings also revealed that vote-sellers' feel justified because vote-selling is perceived as a product of disappointment, lack of trust and voters' apathy, willingness to accept their own share of 'national cake,' and poverty. These findings are consistent with Bandura's proposition that people create the society and equally react to environmental factors. This study contributes to the existing literature and may enhance social change initiatives by improving the understanding of the connection between the provision of infrastructure and the delivery of public services and vote-selling.

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Junior, Jairo Tadeu Pires Pimentel. « Razão e emoção no voto : o caso da eleição presidencial de 2006 ». Universidade de São Paulo, 2007. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/8/8131/tde-07022008-111606/.

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Esta dissertação tem como proposta analisar o papel dos sentimentos na estruturação das escolhas eleitorais durante a eleição presidencial brasileira de 2006. Especificamente, trata-se de analisar de que forma as emoções dos eleitores em relação aos candidatos afetam e estimulam a avaliação e o voto nos mesmos. Primeiramente, buscamos demonstrar formas de mensuração das emoções em termos quantitativos através de pesquisas de survey realizadas durante o período eleitoral. Em segundo lugar, buscamos evidenciar que a avaliação retrospectiva (considerada uma forma racional do voto) pode ser melhor entendida se buscarmos compreender como a avaliação de governo interage com os estados emocionais dos eleitores. Destarte, negando a longa tradição que contrapõe razão e emoção dentro da política, salientamos a tese de que os sentimentos constituem uma importante variável no processamento de informações e, consequentemente, na decisão do voto.
This dissertation analyzes how emotions helped structure electoral choices during the campaign for the presidency of Brazil in 2006. How do the voters\' feelings towards the candidates affect and stimulate their choices? To answer this, at first we show different quantitative measures of emotions, based on surveys applied during the campaign period. Then we gather evidence to support the idea that retrospective voting can be better understood if the incumbent\'s evaluation - interacting with the voter\'s emotions - is taken into account. Therefore, we deny the traditional dichotomy between reason and emotion in electoral behavior studies, indicating that feelings are an important variable to be considered by any analyst that intends to understand how citizens decide whom to vote for.

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Valle, Vinicius Saragiotto Magalhães do. « Religião, lulismo e voto : a atuação política de uma Assembleia de Deus e seus fiéis em São Paulo - 2014-2016 ». Universidade de São Paulo, 2018. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/8/8131/tde-11032019-113345/.

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Esta pesquisa consiste em um estudo de caso realizado no município de São Paulo, no qual se explorou a dinâmica eleitoral por dentro de uma igreja evangélica pentecostal que pertence à denominação Assembleia de Deus, Ministério Belém, durante o período de 2014 a 2016. A investigação se deu tanto no plano da instituição religiosa em questão, separando os níveis do alto clero e de um templo comum periférico, quanto no plano dos seus fiéis. Na dimensão institucional, procurou-se observar qual o discurso político-eleitoral veiculado pela instituição religiosa, e como ela se organiza em termos eleitorais para difundi-lo. Já no plano dos fiéis, identificou-se como eles agem em relação às posições políticas da igreja, tanto em termos amplos de visão política, quanto no voto em si. Para discutir o papel e a força política da igreja, foi preciso levar em conta também a conjuntura política que o país passava no período, e como os fiéis a liam em cada um dos pleitos. A pesquisa abrangeu tanto as eleições legislativas quanto executivas. Nas duas eleições observadas, perceberam-se diferentes tipos e intensidades de engajamento da instituição religiosa entre as eleições legislativas e executivas, e também um crescente discurso antipetista. Entre os fiéis, encontrou-se forte apoio aos candidatos promovidos pela instituição, mas diferenças subjetivas na impressão sobre cada um deles. Nas eleições municipais de 2016, observou-se o surgimento de um grupo de fiéis que discordou da indicação da igreja. Encontrou-se também o crescimento do antipetismo entre os fiéis, ao longo do tempo, o que culminou no quase desaparecimento do grupo de lulistas na eleição de 2016. Analisando o comportamento dos fiéis ao longo do tempo, foi possível identificar diferenças de lógicas de pensar e de escolha dos votos entre a eleição legislativa e executiva, e procurou-se explicar tal diferença pela forma como que eles entendiam cada uma das esferas, sendo o legislativo visto como uma arena de disputa de valores, e o executivo como o lócus de disputa material da sociedade.
This research analyses the electoral dynamics within a Pentecostal church of the denomination Assembly of God, in one of its main ministries, the ministry of Belém, during the election of 2014 and 2016 in São Paulo, Brazil. The investigation approached both institutional and membership levels. In the institutional dimension, I analyzed what speeches were delivered, in the high clergy and in a common temple, and how the institution were organized in electoral terms to manifest this speech. In the membership dimension, I analyzed how they react to the institution acts and speeches, and also the shaping of the points of view and how they affected them in the electoral level, considering the influence of the church and also socioeconomics issues. The observation conducted covered both legislative and executive levels. This investigation found different types and intensities of engagement from the institution in the legislative and executive levels, and also the growth of the anti-PT speech. In the membership dimension, I found a strong support of the candidates promoted by the church in the proportional level, but also subjective differences between them. In 2016 election, we observe the emergence of a group of members that disagreed of the church`s promoted candidate. We also found the growth of the anti-PT along the period, what resulted in the near disappearance of the lulista group in 2016. Analyzing the behavior and the points of view of the members, the found important differences in the ways they think and chooses politics in legislatives and executives elections. We explained these differences by this way of thinking in each one of these levels, where the legislative is seen as an arena dispute of values, and the executive as the level of material disputes.

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Wood, Jason A. « More Than a Feeling : Measuring the Impact of Affect and Socio-Cultural Differences on Vote Choice ». University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2011. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1307321687.

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Linssen, Sara L. « Cat Videos or Campaign Websites : Does Internet Access Make You More Likely to Vote ? » Scholarship @ Claremont, 2016. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/1427.

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Recent election campaigns generated extensive attention for their creative use of Internet, from President Obama’s 2008 Facebook tactic of allowing Facebook friends to share their support with each other to tools that allow supporters to mobilize and influence offline. This thesis asks whether Internet access alone can influence an individual to vote, within the context of American Presidential elections. First, I replicate similar literature by conducting a series of Linear Probability Models that indicate that Internet does have a significant impact on an individual’s decision to vote. However, one major issue that previous studies fail to address is the likelihood of endogeneity between self-reported Internet access and voting behavior. To address this, I introduce a measure of Internet Service Providers available in a given Congressional District as an instrumental variable. Once instrumented, it appears that Internet is largely insignificant. However, there is a key exception in 2008, where Internet access is significant. I argue that this is due to the developments in social media technology that revolutionized the ways in which candidates engaged with voters and voters engaged with one another.

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Huang, Catalina Huamei. « Disillusionment and Disaggregation : Why Did Asian Americans Vote for Trump ? » Scholarship @ Claremont, 2017. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/1514.

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In one of the most controversial and interesting election cycles in American history, Republican nominee, Donald Trump prevailed over his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton. To many, his victory was shocking, if not completely unexpected, yet the circumstances that catalyzed such a defeat lie in the characteristics of his supporters, made up of several classes, races, and identities. Among them are the multifaceted Asian American population – diverse ethnically and politically. This thesis aims to unravel the reasons for which many Asian Americans gave their vote to Trump on November 8, 2016 through distinctions between their ethnic groups and demographics. It also suggests that Asian Americans who supported Trump believe that they are different from other minorities – the “model minority,” and highlights the importance of nonprofit research that has disaggregated the Asian subgroups. With these observations and analysis in mind, the American public and politic can no longer reduce the voting behavior of Asian Americans to a monolithic entity.

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Wachtel, Joseph Michael. « Vote choice and roll-call accuracy how knowledge of senate behavior affects support for the incumbent / ». Tallahassee, Florida : Florida State University, 2009. http://etd.lib.fsu.edu/theses/available/etd-08142009-033743/.

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Thesis (M.A.)--Florida State University, 2009.
Advisor: Jason Barabas, Florida State University, College of Social Sciences & Public Policy, Dept. of Political Science. Title and description from dissertation home page (viewed on April 7, 2010). Document formatted into pages; contains viii, 28 pages. Includes bibliographical references.

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Andronic, Liviu. « Shareholder Engagement and Corporate Behavior : The Case of Environmental and Social Issues ». Thesis, Toulouse 1, 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016TOU10023/document.

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Cette thèse doctorale traite des investissements socialement responsables sous plusieurs aspects. Nous cherchons tout d'abord à déterminer comment les entreprises répondent à l'engagement des actionnaires sur des problématiques environnementales et sociales. Notre analyse s'est effectuée sur un ensemble de données recensant les propositions des actionnaires lors des assemblées générales des entreprises du S&P 1500. À travers cette analyse nous tentons de mesurer l'impact du vote ou du retrait d'une proposition sur la performance extra-financière de l'entreprise. Après avoir contrôlé d'éventuels problèmes d'endogénéité, nous constatons une association positive entre la soumission de propositions à la fois environnementales et sociales au cours d'une même année et l'amélioration de la performance extra-financière de l'entreprise, à court et à long terme. Les résultats indiquent qu'un engagement actionnarial fort sur des problématiques diverses peut conduire à des changements dans la performance extra-financière des entreprises. Nos travaux de recherche s'attachent également à étudier les dynamiques de vote sous-jacentes aux propositions des actionnaires. Nous essayons de déterminer comment les propositions sur des thématiques similaires, votées (ou retirées) par le passé ou dans la même année, peuvent affecter le résultat du vote pour une proposition d'aujourd'hui. Les résultats obtenus montrent que lorsqu'une thématique a déjà fait l'objet d'une proposition actionnariale par le passé, une nouvelle proposition dans le cadre de cette même thématique recueillerait moins de soutien de la part des actionnaires aujourd'hui. Par ailleurs, un niveau de soutien faible de la part des actionnaires pour une proposition dans le passé signifierait un soutien actionnarial plus réduit pour une proposition dans une thématique similaire aujourd'hui. Nous cherchons aussi à voir dans quelle mesure les informations ESG sont intégrées dans les flux d'informations financières, et notamment à déterminer si les analystes financiers prennent bien en compte l'information extra-financière dans leurs projections financières. Nous constatons que les analystes financiers s'attendent à ce qu'une amélioration dans les avantages sociaux de l'entreprise se traduise par une baisse des bénéfices par action (EPS) à court terme, alors que cet effet n'apparaît pas lorsqu'on se base sur l'EPS réalisé, ce qui laisserait penser que les analystes financiers se trompent dans leurs estimations. Cependant, une diminution des défaillances sur le plan social (i.e. une amélioration de la politique sociale de l'entreprise) se traduit à la fois par une amélioration de l'EPS estimé mais également une hausse de l'EPS réalisé. Par conséquent, les analystes financiers semblent anticiper correctement les impacts positifs générés par l'amélioration dans les défaillances sur le plan social, qui est alors perçue comme un signal positif pour la performance financière de l'entreprise
In this thesis we examine several aspects surrounding socially responsible investing. First we look into firms' response to shareholder engagement on environmental and social topics. Using data on shareholder-sponsored proposals in S&P 1500 firms, we investigate whether following a voted or withdrawn proposal there are changes in the extra-financial performance of firms. After controlling for endogeneity concerns, we find that being targeted on both environmental and social topics in the same year is associated with improvements in extra-financial performance, both in the short term and in the long term. The results suggest that shareholder engagement on a broad set of issues, as well as stronger shareholder pressure, is more conducive to changes in the extra-financial performance of firms. Further we study the dynamics of voting on shareholder proposals, specifically how past or concurrent votes (or withdrawals) on similar issues may affect a vote on a proposal in the present. We find that when a shareholder-sponsored proposal on a similar issue has already been discussed in the past, such a proposal would gather less shareholder support in the present. Moreover, a low level of past voting support for proposals on similar topics would induce a reduced voting support in the present. In addition we also attempt to quantify whether ESG information is being incorporated into the financial flows of information. More specifically, we seek to determine whether financial analysts incorporate extra-financial information into the financial forecasts. We find that overall financial analysts expect improvements in social strengths to translate into lower earnings per share (EPS) in the short term, whereas this effect isn't detected when using realized EPS, suggesting that the analysts may be wrong in their estimations. A decrease in social concerns (i.e. an improvement) is however reflected in both improved EPS forecasts and an improved realized EPS, suggesting that financial analysts are correct in perceiving positive shifts in (the largely exogenous) social concerns as a positive signal for the firms' financial performance

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Tavoni, Fabrizio Martins. « Determinante do voto partidário : uma análise do voto em eleições para o Executivo no Estado de São Paulo 1998- 2006 ». Universidade Federal de São Carlos, 2009. https://repositorio.ufscar.br/handle/ufscar/972.

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Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T19:14:53Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2538.pdf: 3718258 bytes, checksum: 4f8124ece498120473e681a7a6c716e0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-04-28
The objective of this work is to analyze the partisan vote in elections for the Executive in the State of São Paulo, as much with the vote for Governor how much for President. The clipping that was made for this work is the period that understands the elections of 1998, 2002 and 2006, being that the analyzed parties are: PSDB (Brazilian Social democracy Party) and PT (Labor Party). The studied data had been collected in TSE (Electoral Superior Court) e, from them, made crossings between candidate the President for a party and candidate the Governor for the other party and vice versa, in order to observe the coherence of the vote in the parties in distinct disputes. From this maps of the vote in the State was made, having shown where each party gets better resulted and also to verify if in such a way in the dispute for the government of the State how much for the Presidency it has coherence in the partisan vote.
O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar o voto partidário em eleições para o Executivo no Estado de São Paulo, tanto com o voto para Governador quanto para Presidente. O recorte que foi feito para este trabalho é o período que compreende as eleições de 1998, 2002 e 2006, sendo que os partidos analisados são: PSDB (Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira) e PT (Partido dos Trabalhadores). Os dados estudados foram coletados no TSE (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral) e, a partir deles, feitos cruzamentos entre candidato a Presidente por um partido e candidato a Governador pelo outro partido e viceversa, de modo a observar a coerência do voto nos partidos em disputas distintas. A partir disso foi feito um geoprocessamento do voto no Estado, mostrando onde cada partido obtém melhor resultado e também verificar se tanto na disputa para o governo do Estado quanto para a Presidência há coerência no voto partidário.

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Makaya, mandembe engouang Yves. « La dynamique de la participation électorale : effets conjoncturels et dispositifs de mobilisation aux élections présidentielles françaises (2007), américaines (2008) et aux élections fédérales canadiennes (2008) ». Thesis, Université Grenoble Alpes (ComUE), 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015GREAH029/document.

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Que traduit la hausse de la participation aux élections présidentielles françaises de 2007 et américaines 2008 ? À partir d’enquêtes électorales française, américaine et canadienne, notre étude met en lumière les changements d’attitudes politiques des citoyens survenus ces dernières années et la pratique croissante d’une participation intermittente et sélective. Ces changements qui résultent de logiques d’individualisation ont permis aux individus de s’extirper de contraintes d’appartenance sociale et de s’affranchir d’allégeances partisanes. Leur jugement se fonde désormais sur une évaluation des critères de l’offre électorale. L’individualisation des valeurs en politique se traduit notamment par une évolution du sens du vote et une hiérarchisation des scrutins. Les électeurs ne se délaissent pas les élections, ils choisissent simplement de participer autrement. Plus instruits, plus autonomes et plus critiques, ces citoyens prescrivent des changements profonds de l’offre. Afin de rallier le plus grand nombre de suffrages, les candidats se voient contraints d’adapter leurs dispositifs stratégiques aux évolutions des comportements politiques des citoyens : structuration des partis, modernisation des campagnes électorales, militantisme à « la carte », nouvelles formes d’engagement politique, usage de l’Internet. Tout est fait pour que le citoyen individualisé trouve dans ces manières de faire la politique les bonnes raisons de voter
What does the increase of the voter turnout in the 2007 French and the 2008 American presidential election mean? With the French, American and Canadian surveys, we highlight the changes in the political attitude of the citizens occurred in recent years. The voters are now practicing an intermittent and selective voting. This changing political behavior reflects a growing individualization values in politics. They are making their mind up from an assessment of the electoral issues positions, an evolution of the meaning of the vote and, a priorization of elections. Voters are not leaving the polling stations, they are only choosing to participate in different way. More educated, autonomous and critical, the citizens require deep changes in the political evaluations. So, by winning number of votes, candidates have to adapt their strategical plan of actions by including the individualized behavior of the citizens : structuring the political party, modernizing the electoral campaigns, promoting a membership “à la carte”, developing new forms of political engagement, and using the Internet. Everything is done to increase the individualized citizens vote

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Livres sur le sujet "Vote behavior"

Besley, Timothy. Incumbent behavior : Vote seeking, tax setting and yardstick competition. Cambridge, MA : National Bureau of Economic Research, 1992.

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G, Niemi Richard, et Weisberg Herbert F, dir. Classics in voting behavior. Washington, D.C : CQ Press, 1993.

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Schram, Arthur J. H. C. Voter Behavior in Economics Perspective. Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-84418-8.

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L, Berry Jonathan, dir. The Influentials : One American in Ten Tells the Other Nine How to Vote, Where to Eat, and What to Buy. New York : Free Press, 2003.

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Cwalina, Wojciech. A cross-cultural theory of voter behavior. New York : Haworth Press, 2008.

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Sautter, John A. The emotional voter : How empathy drives political behavior. Saarbrücken : VDM Verlag Dr. Müller, 2007.

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Naurin, Elin. Election Promises, Party Behaviour and Voter Perceptions. London : Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230319301.

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Vaa, Ruby. The 2001 Samoa general elections : A study of voter behaviour and voter opinion. Apia, Samoa : Samoa Distance and Flexible Learning Centre, University of the South Pacific, 2006.

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David, Broughton, et Napel, H.-M. T. D. ten, dir. Religion and mass electoral behaviour in Europe. London : Routledge/ECPR, 2000.

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Ryckman, David P. G. Comparison of reproductive parameters and social behaviour in the meadow vole (Microtus pennsylvanicus) and mexican vole (Microtus mexicanus). Sudbury, Ont : Laurentian University, 1994.

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Chapitres de livres sur le sujet "Vote behavior"

Inbody, Donald S. « American Military Political Behavior ». Dans The Soldier Vote, 135–54. New York : Palgrave Macmillan US, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9781137519207_10.

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Erisen, Cengiz. « Emotions, Leadership Assessment, and Vote Choice ». Dans Political Behavior and the Emotional Citizen, 77–118. London : Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-58705-3_4.

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Fujii, Atsuhiro, Kazuki Yoshida, Kiichi Shirai et Kazuya Murao. « Bento Packaging Activity Recognition with Convolutional LSTM Using Autocorrelation Function and Majority Vote ». Dans Sensor- and Video-Based Activity and Behavior Computing, 237–47. Singapore : Springer Nature Singapore, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-0361-8_16.

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Szulecki, Kacper, Marta Bivand Erdal et Ben Stanley. « External Voting Patterns : CEE Migrants in Western Europe ». Dans External Voting, 37–61. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-19246-3_3.

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AbstractThis chapter compares external voting of CEE diasporas in Western Europe with voting patterns observed in those diasporas’ respective countries of origin. It focuses on electoral turnout, overall variation in support for parties, and variation in support for parties with respect to key ideological dimensions and issues. Using quantitative data on all parliamentary and presidential elections held in Bulgaria, Czechia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, and Poland, it analyzes the aggregate patterns of divergence and convergence between diaspora and origin-country electorates from the last pre-EU-accession election onward. The analysis shows that diaspora voters are less likely to turn out in elections, but that those who do vote make choices which are legible with respect to origin-country political dynamics and relatively consistent over time, with no evidence of divergence or convergence. The chapter concludes by identifying three important issues to be investigated at the individual level: the impact of election laws and infrastructure on propensity to participate in elections, the relative importance of migration experiences and socio-demographic factors in determining diaspora vote choices, and the impact of host-country society and politics on the behavior of diaspora voters.

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Rinscheid, Adrian, et Linards Udris. « Referendum Campaigns in Swiss Energy Policy ». Dans Swiss Energy Governance, 283–312. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-80787-0_12.

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AbstractWhat are the patterns in media coverage in Swiss energy policy-making, and to what extent do the media influence voters’ decisions at the ballot? In a first step, this chapter provides a comparative investigation of media coverage in the run-up to three recent energy-related referenda (2015 initiative “Energy tax instead of VAT”; 2016 nuclear phase-out initiative; 2017 referendum on the federal Energy Strategy 2050), with 31 other referenda between 2014 and 2018 as a benchmark. Based on a content analysis of articles published in 21 Swiss newspapers, our analysis demonstrates that the three energy-policy referenda are characterized by patterns similar to non-energy votes but also have distinct features. In a second step, we specifically focus on the 2016 nuclear phase-out initiative, which was characterized by balanced newspaper reporting, and explain voting behavior by linking data on media coverage and individual-level data from a panel survey (n = 1014). The analysis relies on “linkage analysis”, a method that takes media contents as quasi-experimental stimuli to explain individual-level outcomes. We find that the failure of the phase-out initiative can be partly explained by exposure to newspaper coverage: one in four left-wing voters who had initially been in favor of the popular initiative but were exposed to strongly negative coverage about it during the “hot” campaign phase changed their initial voting intention. The analysis also suggests that the media coverage may have helped center/right-wing voters to learn about their preferred party’s position so as to align their vote choice with their political predisposition.

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Kaeding, Michael, et Felix Schenuit. « The European Parliament’s Perspective on EU–Turkey Relations ». Dans EU-Turkey Relations, 241–64. Cham : Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-70890-0_10.

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AbstractOver the last fifteen years, the European Parliament (EP) has served as an important actor in the assessment and design of the politically contested relationship between the EU and Turkey in general, and Turkey’s extended accession talks in particular. In the event of a successful completion of Turkish accession negotiations, the EP will also be responsible for taking the final decision on Turkish accession to the EU. Based on data made available by VoteWatch Europe with regard to the voting behavior of Members of the EP on all Turkey-related files since 2005, we show how the EP’s support for Turkey’s accession to the EU has changed over time. Our findings reveal that the EP has gradually developed from a strong advocate of Turkey’s EU membership to the only EU institution formally closing the ‘accession door’ for Turkey. At the same time, EP resolutions on the country reports on Turkey have collected numerous arguments for the importance of a new strategic partnership—representing majority-winning new narratives on the future trajectory of EU–Turkey relations. These arguments should not be wiped away in an increasingly politicized environment. Vote-seeking and closing the door to accession without identifying possible alternatives for cooperation would be politically and geo-strategically shortsighted.

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Elcock, Howard. « The floating voter ». Dans Political Behaviour, 291–304. London : Routledge, 2025. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003620792-23.

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Shakir, Shuja. « Muslim Voting Behaviour : Facts and Fallacies ». Dans Communities as Vote Banks, 86–95. London : Routledge, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003538448-5.

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Ali, Zaheer. « Muslim Voting Behaviour : Myth and Reality ». Dans Communities as Vote Banks, 59–85. London : Routledge, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003538448-4.

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Tiihonen, Aino, et Peter Söderlund. « The Social Basis of the Vote ». Dans Political Behaviour in Contemporary Finland, 91–105. London : Routledge, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003452287-9.

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Actes de conférences sur le sujet "Vote behavior"

Kaushik, Ruchi, Prateek Rawat et Palak Hooda. « Predicting Voter Behaviour Through AI Techniques ». Dans 2024 International Conference on IoT, Communication and Automation Technology (ICICAT), 1639–45. IEEE, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1109/icicat62666.2024.10923480.

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Meshkat, Leila. « Extending Coverage Modeling to Voter Behavior for Spacecraft Reliability Modeling ». Dans 2025 Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (RAMS), 1–6. IEEE, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1109/rams48127.2025.10935030.

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Hammer, Michael E., et Hamdi Kavak. « Simulating Elections in the Context of Voter Behavior and Election Rules ». Dans 2024 Annual Modeling and Simulation Conference (ANNSIM), 1–12. IEEE, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.23919/annsim61499.2024.10732640.

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Ahmad, Faiz, Muhammad Aldrich Revelin, Alexander Agung Santoso Gunawan et Muhammad Edo Syahputra. « The Influence of Social Media on Voter Behavior, Public Opinion, and Partisan Tendencies during Election Campaigns in Indonesia : Systematic Literature Review ». Dans 2024 International Seminar on Application for Technology of Information and Communication (iSemantic), 563–68. IEEE, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1109/isemantic63362.2024.10762311.

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Kavner, Joshua, Reshef Meir, Francesca Rossi et Lirong Xia. « Convergence in Multi-Issue Iterative Voting under Uncertainty ». Dans Thirty-Second International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence {IJCAI-23}. California : International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence Organization, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.24963/ijcai.2023/310.

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We study strategic behavior in iterative plurality voting for multiple issues under uncertainty. We introduce a model synthesizing simultaneous multi-issue voting with local dominance theory, in which agents repeatedly update their votes based on sets of vote profiles they deem possible, and determine its convergence properties. After demonstrating that local dominance improvement dynamics may fail to converge, we present two sufficient model refinements that guarantee convergence from any initial vote profile for binary issues: constraining agents to have O-legal preferences, where issues are ordered by importance, and endowing agents with less uncertainty about issues they are modifying than others. Our empirical studies demonstrate that while cycles are common for agents without uncertainty, introducing uncertainty makes convergence almost guaranteed in practice.

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Abdullah, Mulyana, Kama A. Hakam, Wilodati Wilodati et Ratnafitria Ratnafitria. « Analysis of Vote Behavior in Election (Psychological Study of Election Behavior on the Young Generation) ». Dans Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Research of Educational Administration and Management (ICREAM 2019). Paris, France : Atlantis Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/assehr.k.200130.158.

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Budurushi, Jurlind, Marcel Woide et Melanie Volkamer. « Introducing Precautionary Behavior by Temporal Diversion of Voter Attention from Casting to Verifying their Vote ». Dans Workshop on Usable Security. Reston, VA : Internet Society, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.14722/usec.2014.23037.

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Kraiczy, Sonja, et Edith Elkind. « Explaining Preferences by Multiple Patterns in Voters’ Behavior ». Dans Thirty-First International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence {IJCAI-22}. California : International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence Organization, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.24963/ijcai.2022/53.

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In some preference aggregation scenarios, voters' preferences are highly structured: e.g., the set of candidates may have one-dimensional structure (so that voters' preferences are single-peaked) or be described by a binary decision tree (so that voters' preferences are group-separable). However, sometimes a single axis or a decision tree is insufficient to capture the voters' preferences; rather, there is a small number K of axes or decision trees such that each vote in the profile is consistent with one of these axes (resp., trees). In this work, we study the complexity of deciding whether voters' preferences can be explained in this manner. For K=2, we use the technique developed by Yang [2020, https://doi.org/10.3233/FAIA200099] in the context of single-peaked preferences to obtain a polynomial-time algorithm for several domains: value-restricted preferences, group-separable preferences, and a natural subdomain of group-separable preferences, namely, caterpillar group-separable preferences. For K > 2, the problem is known to be hard for single-peaked preferences; we establish that it is also hard for value-restricted and group-separable preferences. Our positive results for K=2 make use of forbidden minor characterizations of the respective domains; in particular, we establish that the domain of caterpillar group-separable preferences admits a forbidden minor characterization.

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Out, Charlotte, et Ahad N. Zehmakan. « Majority Vote in Social Networks : Make Random Friends or Be Stubborn to Overpower Elites ». Dans Thirtieth International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence {IJCAI-21}. California : International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence Organization, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.24963/ijcai.2021/49.

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Consider a graph G, representing a social network. Assume that initially each node is colored either black or white, which corresponds to a positive or negative opinion regarding a consumer product or a technological innovation. In the majority model, in each round all nodes simultaneously update their color to the most frequent color among their connections. Experiments on the graph data from the real world social networks (SNs) suggest that if all nodes in an extremely small set of high-degree nodes, often referred to as the elites, agree on a color, that color becomes the dominant color at the end of the process. We propose two countermeasures that can be adopted by individual nodes relatively easily and guarantee that the elites will not have this disproportionate power to engineer the dominant output color. The first countermeasure essentially requires each node to make some new connections at random while the second one demands the nodes to be more reluctant towards changing their color (opinion). We verify their effectiveness and correctness both theoretically and experimentally. We also investigate the majority model and a variant of it when the initial coloring is random on the real world SNs and several random graph models. In particular, our results on the Erdős-Rényi, and regular random graphs confirm or support several theoretical findings or conjectures by the prior work regarding the threshold behavior of the process. Finally, we provide theoretical and experimental evidence for the existence of a poly-logarithmic bound on the expected stabilization time of the majority model.

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Fesnic, Florin. « Explaining political surprises (aka making methodology fun) : determinants of voting in Ukrainian presidential elections ». Dans Promoting Understanding of Statistics about Society. International Association for Statistical Education, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.52041/srap.16204.

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The majority of social science majors dislike statistics and research methods. Things can, and should be, different; (social) statistics and research methods can be interesting and fun. To do just that, I currently work on an applied methodology book project. Here I present a modified version of a draft chapter for the book, in which I answer the question why, in Ukraine, there was a strong negative correlation between the regional shares of the vote for Leonid Kuchma in two consecutive presidential elections. The modelling of political competition as two-dimensional (one socioeconomic, one ethno-linguistic) reveals the dominance of the latter dimension in Ukrainian politics. In addition to statistical and methodological lessons, the paper offers substantive lessons, relevant for the important role (positive or negative) that institutional design, policy-making and elite behavior can play in an ethnically divided emerging democracy.

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Rapports d'organisations sur le sujet "Vote behavior"

Besley, Timothy, et Anne Case. Incumbent Behavior : Vote Seeking, Tax Setting and Yardstick Competition. Cambridge, MA : National Bureau of Economic Research, mars 1992. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w4041.

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van Oosten, Sanne. The Importance of In-group Favoritism in Explaining Voting for PRRPs : A Study of Minority and Majority Groups in France, Germany and the Netherlands. European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS), janvier 2025. https://doi.org/10.55271/pp0046.

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The voting behavior of racial and ethnic minorities is a topic that attracts much speculation, with some claiming that racial and ethnic minorities do vote for Populist Radical Right Parties (PRRPs) and some claiming they do not. In the European Union, where saving data on individual’s race and ethnicity is prohibited, it is very difficult to contribute to these conversations with real facts. Do ethnic minorities and majorities tend to vote for PRRP and what explains their (lack of) support? Thanks to a novel yet costly sampling method, I surveyed racial/ethnic minority and majority voters in France, Germany and the Netherlands and asked them about their propensity to vote for Rassemblement National (RN) in France, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in Germany, and Partij voor de Vrijheid (PVV) in the Netherlands. I compare racial/ethnic minority groups, including Muslims, with majority groups and test the mechanisms that might predict their support for PRRPs. My findings indicate Muslims are among the least likely to vote for PRRPs, though the difference with voters without a migration background is only significant in the Netherlands. When testing what explains the propensity to vote for PRRPs, I find that indicators of in-group favoritism usually explain support to larger extent than out-group hate. Though anti-immigration attitudes predict PRRP voting in all three countries, in-group favoritism explanations explain PRRP voting to a slightly stronger extent. In France and Germany, the ethnocentrism scale predicts voting for RN/AfD more than immigration attitudes do. In the Netherlands, feeling accepted as belonging in the Netherlands explains voting for the PVV the most. Amongst Muslim French, German and Dutch voters, in-group favoritism, or the lack thereof, explains voting for PRRPs as well. French Muslims who feel more attached to France are more likely to vote for RN. German Muslims who do not believe in religious freedom for Muslims are more likely to vote for AfD. This also applies to Dutch Muslims, though immigration attitudes also predict voting for the PVV: the more a Dutch Muslim is against immigration, the more likely they are to vote PVV. Generally, this study makes a case for expanding the standard predictors of PRRP voting towards more indicators of in-group favoritism for the majority in-group, while for Muslims PRRP voting is more driven by policy attitudes. Feeling close or distant towards ethnic in- or out-groups does not predict PRRP voting in any of the cases. These findings contribute to our understanding of PRRP voting in Europe. Keywords: Populism, Muslims, race, ethnicity, voting behavior, France, Germany, Netherlands, RN, AfD, PVV.

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Lalisse, Matthias. Measuring the Impact of Campaign Finance on Congressional Voting : A Machine Learning Approach. Institute for New Economic Thinking Working Paper Series, février 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.36687/inetwp178.

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How much does money drive legislative outcomes in the United States? In this article, we use aggregated campaign finance data as well as a Transformer based text embedding model to predict roll call votes for legislation in the US Congress with more than 90% accuracy. In a series of model comparisons in which the input feature sets are varied, we investigate the extent to which campaign finance is predictive of voting behavior in comparison with variables like partisan affiliation. We find that the financial interests backing a legislator’s campaigns are independently predictive in both chambers of Congress, but also uncover a sizable asymmetry between the Senate and the House of Representatives. These findings are cross-referenced with a Representational Similarity Analysis (RSA) linking legislators’ financial and voting records, in which we show that “legislators who vote together get paid together”, again discovering an asymmetry between the House and the Senate in the additional predictive power of campaign finance once party is accounted for. We suggest an explanation of these facts in terms of Thomas Ferguson’s Investment Theory of Party Competition: due to a number of structural differences between the House and Senate, but chiefly the lower amortized cost of obtaining individuated influence with Senators, political investors prefer operating on the House using the party as a proxy.

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Arzheimer, Kai. Germany’s 2024 EP Elections : The Populist Challenge to the Progressive Coalition. European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS), octobre 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.55271/rp0071.

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The 2024 European parliamentary election in Germany marked a significant shift in the political landscape, with devastating results for the governing coalition of the Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens, and the Liberal Democrats (FDP). Chancellor Scholz’s SPD and the Greens experienced substantial losses, while the opposition Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) saw a modest increase in their vote share. The most notable gains were made by the populist radical-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the newly formed left-wing populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a breakaway from the Left (Die Linke), highlighting a growing demand for populist politics in Germany. The Left itself suffered heavy losses. Despite internal scandals and controversies that contributed to a considerable drop in support in pre-election polls, the AfD leveraged anti-immigration sentiments and economic concerns to gain substantial support. The BSW capitalized on left–authoritarian positions, emphasizing welfare and anti-immigration policies. Both parties also criticized Germany’s support for Ukraine and styled themselves as agents of ‘peace.’ The election results underscored the unpopularity of the ‘progressive coalition’ in Germany and reflected the impact of high inflation, energy security concerns and contentious climate policies on voter behaviour. Voter turnout was the highest since 1979, indicating heightened political engagement. Like in previous elections, populist parties were much more successful in the post-communist eastern states. While its impact on the European level is limited, the election sent shock waves through Germany, suggesting a shift in future policy directions, particularly concerning the green transformation and relations with Russia. Keywords: Alternative for Germany (AfD); Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW); Germany; Russia; Ukraine; east–west differences

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Abed, Dana, Rihab Sawaya et Nadim Tabbal. Analyzing Voter Turnout in Lebanon : Political Change in Times of Crisis. Oxfam, avril 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.21201/2022.8823.

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In May 2022, Lebanon is hosting its first parliamentary elections since the popular uprising of October 2019, when massive protests took place to denounce the current ruling elites. This research looks at voter turnout and behavior on the eve of the elections and examines the will for political change. It argues that in the current Lebanese context, there needs to be further political awareness-raising, and campaigns should be more inclusive of women and the queer community. Independent campaigns should focus on developing strong governing capacities that voters can trust, and create further space for civic and political engagement on the local and national levels.

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Snyder, James, et Hasin Yousaf. Making Rallies Great Again : The Effects of Presidential Campaign Rallies on Voter Behavior, 2008-2016. Cambridge, MA : National Bureau of Economic Research, octobre 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w28043.

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Stein, Ernesto H., et Jorge M. Streb. Elections and the Timing of Devaluations. Inter-American Development Bank, janvier 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0010763.

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This paper presents a rational political budget cycle model for an open economy, in which devaluations are delayed in the pre-election period so as to increase the electoral chances of the party in office. By concentrating on closed economies, previous political cycle models had overlooked the influence of elections on the behavior of exchange rates. Voter uncertainty is introduced in two different dimensions. Not only are voters uncertain regarding the competency of the incumbent, but they also ignore the degree to which the incumbent is opportunistic.

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Sánchez Gassen, Nora, Carlos Tapia, Myriam Chilvers, Kamila Dzhavatova et Anna Lundgren. Navigating Nordic discontent – Regional divides, electoral trends, and the green transition. Nordregio, mars 2025. https://doi.org/10.6027/pb2025:18-2001-3876.

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Political discontent has been rising in many Western democracies, often linked to economic insecurities, spatial inequalities, and demographic shifts. While the Nordic countries generally maintain high levels of trust in institutions, growing rural-urban divides may contribute to dissatisfaction, particularly in areas facing economic stagnation or demographic imbalances. This project synthesis examines spatial disparities across the Nordic Region and their association with electoral behaviour, particularly voter turnout and support for populist parties.

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Aruguete, Natalia, Ernesto Calvo, Carlos Scartascini et Tiago Ventura. Trustful Voters, Trustworthy Politicians : A Survey Experiment on the Influence of Social Media in Politics. Inter-American Development Bank, juillet 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0003389.

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Recent increases in political polarization in social media raise questions about the relationship between negative online messages and the decline in political trust around the world. To evaluate this claim causally, we implement a variant of the well-known trust game in a survey experiment with 4,800 respondents in Brazil and Mexico. Our design allows to test the effect of social media on trust and trustworthiness. Survey respondents alternate as agents (politicians) and principals (voters). Players can cast votes, trust others with their votes, and cast entrusted votes. The players rewards are contingent on their preferred “candidate” winning the election. We measure the extent to which voters place their trust in others and are themselves trustworthy, that is, willing to honor requests that may not benefit them. Treated respondents are exposed to messages from in-group or out-group politicians, and with positive or negative tone. Results provide robust support for a negative effect of uncivil partisan discourse on trust behavior and null results on trustworthiness. The negative effect on trust is considerably greater among randomly treated respondents who engage with social media messages. These results show that engaging with messages on social media can have a deleterious effect on trust, even when those messages are not relevant to the task at hand or not representative of the actions of the individuals involved in the game.

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Bolin, Niklas. A Speed Bump in the Road or the Start of an Uphill Journey ? The Sweden Democrats and the 2024 European Parliament Election Setback. European Center for Populism Studies (ECPS), octobre 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.55271/rp0085.

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Résumé :

Leading up to the 2024 European Parliament election, much attention was given to the anticipated gains of populist parties across Europe. While some populist parties made significant advances, the overall outcome was more moderate than expected. Sweden deviated from this general trend, witnessing gains for left-wing parties and a surprising setback for the populist radical right. The 2024 elections marked a historic decline for the Sweden Democrats, the first instance since their formation in 1988 that they regressed in comparison to previous national and European Parliament elections. This decline is particularly notable following their strong performance in the 2022 national elections, where they became Sweden’s second-largest party. This article examines these developments, drawing on existing research, media reports and exit polls, with a focus on the Sweden Democrats’ campaign strategies, election results and voter behaviour. The article concludes with a discussion of the implications of these election outcomes for both Swedish domestic politics and the broader European political landscape. Keywords: radical right; populism; Sweden Democrats; European Union; elections, voting behaviour

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