Tesi sul tema "Axiomatic analysis of economic systems"

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, 2006.<br>Includes bibliographical references (p. 145-146).<br>Against the backdrop of rising oil prices and increasing uncertainty in the future of energy and the health of the environment, wind energy is distinguished as a leading technology that is both technologically and economically viable for large-scale non-petroleum and non-polluting energy generation. The deployment of wind energy technology on floating platforms in deep water offshore environments has emerged as a forward-thinking application of this technology. This thesis takes some early steps toward the development of innovative and cost-effective floating platforms to support a 5-MW wind turbine for deployment in water depths of 30 - 300 meters. A tool for performing a coupled structural, hydrodynamic, and aerodynamic analysis of floating wind turbine systems in the frequency domain was developed and is presented. This analysis tool includes the effects of the gyroscopic loads of the wind turbine rotor on the tower and floater, the aerodynamic damping introduced by the wind turbine rotor, the hydrodynamic added mass and damping introduced by wave-body interactions, and the hydrodynamic forces caused by wave excitation.<br>(cont.) This analysis tool was applied to several structures representing excerpts of the design space of structures capable of supporting large wind turbines. The structures were evaluated on their dynamic performance in several environmental conditions and on their installed cost. An economic analysis was also carried out to determine the cost of the floating platform for the wind turbine per kWh of electricity generated.<br>by Elizabeth Wayman.<br>S.M.

Thesis (M.S.)--West Virginia University, 2003.<br>Title from document title page. Document formatted into pages; contains vi, 163 p. : ill. (some col.). Includes abstract. Includes bibliographical references (p. 132-136).

Climate change stabilization requires an unprecedented effort to change our current approach to energy production and consumption. While rising energy prices are drawing increased attention to reducing energy demand, heightened concern about the environmental consequences of fuel choice requires that this demand be met at lower emission levels. In Canada, the realization of commitments to our GHG emission goals entails reducing residential energy use - a sector responsible for close to 20 percent of end-use energy consumption. This study focuses on the energy demand and emission levels of space and water heating, since these two components comprise 76 percent of residential energy demand. Ground source heat pumps (GSHPs) are a technology that provides heating at 25 to 30 percent of the energy consumed by even the most efficient conventional alternatives. GSHPs have been identified as the most energy-efficient, environmentally clean, and cost-effective space conditioning systems available. However, their drawbacks have been high capital costs, and uncertainty about whether the electric power used by heat pumps has higher system-wide emissions. This thesis delineates how adoption of GSHPs in the residential sector can help align Canada’s technology choices with commitments made to the Kyoto Protocol. The manuscripts delineate conditions under which GSHP systems achieve the largest net emission reductions relative natural gas, heating oil, and electric heat counterparts. Electricity generation methods and emissions embodied in inter-provincial and international electricity trade are shown to significantly affect the emission savings achievable through GSHP. The thesis quantifies how relative fuel prices influence annual operating savings that determine how rapidly the technology can achieve payback. This analysis reveals GSHPs to hold significant potential for substantial GHG reductions at a cost savings relative to conventional alternatives; the time horizons for payback are as short as nine years for average-sized homes, and significantly shorter for larger homes.

This study focuses on the efficient use of solar energy for a certain region in the Mediterranean basin. Solar thermal energy becomes increasingly popular and the available solar market is investigated with the aim of selecting and assessing a pilot region for a promising solar application. The work herein focuses on estimating the potential of three different 100% solar-driven integrated systems to cover the entire cooling and heating demand of a selected single family house solely by solar energy. The three different alternative systems are presented and examined in detail for the actual case study application. The sample house within the chosen region is located on the south coast of Turkey. The entire thermal demand of this house for both cooling during summer and heating during winter has first been properly calculated. Characteristic features of the house and the typical design parameters for the region have been analyzed, as well as and their daily and annual variations. Heat loss and heating/cooling load calculations have been done with respect to these specifications and to ASHRAE regulations. After finding the building`s demands for the comfort temperature, the three different solar-driven systems are simulated for a practical application to the sample house. Required mechanical equipment and parasitic load consumption has been investigated for each system and investment cost analyses have been performed respectively. Simplified payback times for each alternative system are calculated and discussed. Payback period sensitivity analysis was attempted for two different locations featuring different grid pricing regulations. As a conclusion, feasibility analysis for the three examined types of solar-driven integrated heating and cooling systems has been attempted, which gives a good representation of the potential solar energy market in the Mediterranean region. Also some suggestions are offered to the companies which develop and market solar heating/cooling systems.

The research presented in this thesis investigates the effect the data collection process has on the results of the economic analysis in pavement management systems. The incorporation of pavement management systems into software packages has enabled local governments to easily implement and maintain an asset management plan. However a general standard has yet to be set, enabling local governments to select from several methods of data collection. In this research, two pavement management system software packages with different data collection methods are analyzed on the common estimated recommended M&R cost provided by their respective economic analysis. The Transportation Asset Management Software (TAMS) software package developed by the Utah LTAP Center at Utah State University consists of a data collection process composed of nine asphalt pavement distress observations. The Micro PAVERTM software package developed by the Army Corps of Engineers consists of a data collection process composed of 20 asphalt pavement distress observations. A Latin-hypercube sample set was input into each software package, as well as actual local government pavement condition data for the City of Smithfield, Utah and the City of Tremonton, Utah. This resulted in six total data sets for analysis, three entered and analyzed in TAMS and three entered and analyzed in Micro PAVERTM. These sample sets were then statistically modeled to determine the effect each distress variable had on the response produced by the economic analysis of estimated recommended M&R costs. Due to the different methodologies of pavement condition data collection, two different statistical approaches were utilized during the sensitivity analysis. The TAMS data sets consisted of a general linear regression model, while the Micro PAVERTM data sets consisted of an analysis of covariance model. It was determined that each data set had varying results in terms of sensitive pavement distresses; however the common sensitive distress in all of the data sets was that of alligator cracking/fatigue. This research also investigates the possibility of utilizing statistically produced models as a direct cost estimator given pavement condition data.

Economic systems analysis is a systems analysis technique of setting out the factors that have to be taken into account in making economic systems decisions. The inquiring and operational systems of the technique are almost exclusively designed for well-structured systems. In review of economic systems analysis against systems thinking, there is a growing tendency to discard the analytical approach as inappropriate for dealing with an ill-structured issue. Therefore, economic systems analysis needs both the inquiring and operational systems which are appropriate for ill-structured systems. The foregoing leads to the introduction of an extensive methodology. Mainly, the weakness of economic systems analysis methodology can be traced to the philosophical paradigm upon which the technique is based. In this study, four main aspects of both the inquiring and operational systems of economic systems analysis are being explored: (1) A new philosophical paradigm is proposed as the foundation of general methodology in place of the traditional Newtonian-Kantian inquiring system. (2) The new philosophical paradigm needs new problem formulation and analysis space; therefore, a multidimensional, synergetic, and autopoietic model is proposed for systems synthesis and systems analysis. (3) The new philosophical paradigm is characterized as a Singerian inquiry, and as a result, Marglin's multiobjective analysis is replaced by a Singerian multiobjective analysis. (4) Markov communication theory and fuzzy sets theory are proposed as tools for handling complexity. Markov communication theory and fuzzy sets theory are introduced for systems design and multiple objective analysis. This study reports on the first application of a Singerian fuzzy multiobjective mathematical algorithm in economic systems analysis, concluding that fuzzy systems theory, especially Markov communication theory, can realize approximate reasoning in economic systems analysis. Fuzzy modeling offers a deeper understanding of complexity and a means of expressing the insights that result from that understanding; moreover, it provides a means of incorporating subjectivity and adaptation. Therefore, fuzzy modeling increases the validity of the systems approach for dealing with ill-structured systems. The proposed method represents an important theoretical improvement of Marglin's approach. The results, however, also hold practical importance, for they are of practical interest to systems analysts who would improve systems design and multiobjective analysis.

1. The context: The European patent system has been affected by substantial changes over the past three decades, which have raised vigorous debates at different levels. The main objective of the present dissertation is to contribute to these debates through an exploratory analysis of different changes in patenting practices – in particular the way applications are drafted and filed to patent offices –, their drivers, association with the value of patents, and potential impact on the patent system. The coming essays are therefore empirical in their essence, but are inspired by economic motivations and concerns. Their originality is threefold: it resides in the novelty of the main questions discussed, the comprehensive database specifically built to address them, and the range of statistical methods used for this purpose. The main argument throughout these pages is that patenting practices have significantly evolved in the past decades and that these developments have affected the patent system and could compromise its ability to fulfil its economic purpose. The economic objective of patents is to encourage innovation and its diffusion through the public disclosure of the inventions made. But their exploitation in the knowledge economy has assumed so many different forms that inventors have supposedly developed new patenting and filing strategies to deal with these market conditions or reap the maximum benefits from their patents. The present thesis aims at better understanding the dimensions, determinants, and some potential consequences of these developing practices.<p><p>2. The evolution: Chapter 2 presents a detailed descriptive analysis of the evolution in the size of patent applications filed to the European Patent Office (EPO). In this chapter, we propose two measures of patent voluminosity and identify the main patterns in their evolution. Based on a dataset with about 2 million documents filed at the EPO, the results show that the average voluminosity of patent applications – measured in terms of the number of pages and claims contained in each document – has doubled over the past 25 years. Nevertheless, this evolution varies widely across countries, technologies and filing procedures chosen by the applicant. This increasing voluminosity of filings has a strong impact on the workload of the EPO, which justifies the need for regulatory and policy actions.<p><p>3. The drivers: The evolution in patent voluminosity observed in chapter 2 calls for a multivariate analysis of its determinants. Chapter 3 therefore proposes and tests 4 different hypotheses that may contribute to explaining the observed inflation in size: the influence of national laws and practices and their diffusion to other countries with the progressive globalization of patenting procedures, the complexification of research activities and inventions, the emergence of new sectors with less established norms and vocabularies, and the construction of patent portfolios. The econometric results first reveal that the four hypotheses are significantly associated with longer documents and are therefore empirically supported. It appears however that the first hypothesis – the diffusion of national drafting practices through international patenting procedures – is the strongest contributor of all, resulting in a progressive harmonization of drafting styles toward American standards, which are longer by nature. The portfolio construction hypothesis seems a less important driver but nevertheless highlights substantial changes in patenting practices. These results raise two questions: Do these evolving patenting practices indicate more valuable patents? Do they induce any embarrassment for the patent system?<p><p>4. Measuring patent value: If the former of these two questions is to be addressed, measures are needed to identify higher value patents. Chapter 4 therefore proposes a review of the state of the art on patent value indicators and analyses several issues in their measurement and interpretation. Five classes of indicators proposed in the literature may be obtained directly from patent databases: the number of countries in which each patent is enforced, the number of years during which each patent has been renewed, the grant decision taken, the number of citations received from subsequent patents, and whether it has been opposed by a third party before the EPO. Because the former two measures are closely connected (the geographical scope of protection and length of maintenance can hardly be observed independently), they have been subjected to closer scrutiny in the first section of chapter 4, which shows that these two dimensions have experienced opposite evolutions. A composite measure – the Scope-Year Index – reveals that the overall trend is oriented downwards, which may suggest a substantial decline in the average value of patents. The second section of chapter 4 returns to the five initial classes of measures and underlines their main patterns. It appears that most of them witness the well-known properties of patent value: a severe skewness and large country and technology variations. A closer look at their relationships, however, reveals a high degree of orthogonality between them and opposite trends in their evolution, suggesting that they actually capture different dimensions of a patent’s value and therefore do not always pinpoint the same patents as being the most valuable. This result strongly discourages the reliance on one of the available indicators only and opens some avenue for the creation of one potential composite index of value based upon the five indicators to maximize the chances of capturing all potentially valuable patents in a large database. The proposed index reflects the intensity of the signal provided by all 5 constituting indicators on the potential value of each patent. Its declining trend reflects a rarefaction of this signal on average, leading to different plausible interpretations.<p><p>5. The links with patent value: Based upon the six indicators of value proposed in chapter 4 (the five classical ones plus the composite), the question of the association between filing strategies and the value of patents may be analysed. This question is empirically addressed in chapter 5, which focuses on all EPO patents filed between 1990 and 1995. The first section presents a comprehensive review of the existing evidence on the determinants of patent value. The numerous contributions in the field differ widely along three dimensions (the indicator of value chosen as dependent variable, the sampling methodology, and the set of variables tested as determinants), which have translated into many ambiguities across the literature. Section 2 proposes measures to identify different dimensions of filing strategies, which are essentially twofold: they relate to the routes followed by patent filings toward the EPO (PCT, accelerated processing), and to their form (excess claims, share of claims lost in examination), and construction (by assembly or disassembly, divisional). These measures are then included into an econometric model based upon the framework provided by the literature. The proposed model, which integrates the set of filing strategy variables along with some of the classical determinants, is regressed on the six available indicators separately over the full sample. In addition, the sensitivity of the available results to the indicator and the sampling methodology is assessed through 18 geographic and 14 industrial clustered regressions and about 30 regressions over random samples for each indicator. The estimates are then compared across countries, industries and indicators. These results first reveal that filing strategies are indicative of more valuable patents and provide the most stable determinants of all. And third, the results do confirm some classical determinants in their positive association with patent value, but highlight a high degree of sensitivity of most of them to the indicator or the sample chosen for the analysis, requiring much care in generalizing such empirical results.<p><p>6. The links with patent length: Chapter 6 focuses on one particular dimension of patent value: the length of patents. To do so, the censored nature of the dependent variable (the time elapsed between the filing of a patent application and its ultimate fall into the public domain) dictates the recourse to a survival time model as proposed by Cox (1972). The analysis is original in three main respects. First of all, despite the fact that renewal data have been exploited for about two decades to obtain estimates of patent value (Pakes and Schankerman, 1984), this chapter provides – to the best of our knowledge – the first comprehensive analysis of the determinants of patent length. Second, whereas most of the empirical literature in the field focuses on granted patents and investigates their maintenance, the analysis reported here includes all patent applications. This comprehensive approach is dictated by the provisional rights provided by pending applications to their holders and by the legal uncertainty these represent for competitors. And third, the model integrates a wide set of explanatory variables, starting with the filing strategy variables proposed in chapter 5. The main results are threefold: first, they clearly show that patent rights have significantly increased in length over the past decades despite a small apparent decline in the average grant rate, but largely due to the expansion of the examination process. Second, they indicate that most filing strategies induce considerable delays in the examination process, possibly to the benefit of the patentee, but most certainly to the expense of legal uncertainty on the markets. And third, they confirm that more valuable patents (more cited or covering a larger geographical scope) take more time to process, and live longer, whereas more complex applications are associated with longer decision lags, but also with lower grant and renewal rates.<p><p>7. Conclusions: The potential economic consequences and some policy implications of the findings from the dissertation are discussed in chapter 7. The evolution of patenting practices analysed in these works has some direct consequences for the stakeholders of the patent system. For the EPO, they generate a considerable increase in workload, resulting in growing backlogs and processing lags. For innovative firms, this phenomenon translates into an undesired increase in legal uncertainty, for it complicates the assessment of the limits to each party’s rights and hence of the freedom to operate on a market, which is precisely what the so-called ‘patent trolls’ and ‘submariners’ may be looking for. Although empirical evidence is lacking, some fear that this may result in underinvestment in research, development or commercialization activities (e.g. Hall and Harhoff, 2004). In addition, legal uncertainty is synonymous with an increased risk of litigation, which may hamper the development of SMEs and reduce the level of entrepreneurship. Finally, for society, we are left with a contrasted picture, which is hard to interpret. The European patent system wishes to maintain high quality standards to reduce business uncertainty around granted patents, but it is overloaded with the volume of applications filed, resulting in growing backglogs which translate into legal uncertainty surrounding pending applications. The filing strategies that contribute to this situation might reflect a legitimate need for more time and flexibility in filing more valuable patents, but they could also easily turn into real abuses of the system, allowing some patentees to obtain and artificially maintain provisional rights conferred by pending applications on inventions that might not meet the patentability requirements. Distinguishing between these two cases goes beyond the scope of the present dissertation, but should they be found abusive, they should be fought for they consume resources and generate uncertainty. And if legitimate, then they should be understood and the system adapted accordingly (e.g. by adjusting fees to discourage some strategies, raising the inventive step, fine-tuning the statutory term in certain technologies, providing more legal tools for patent examiners to reject unpatentable applications, etc.) so as to better serve the need of inventors for legal protection in a more efficient way, and to adapt the patent system to the challenges it is or will be facing.<br>Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion<br>info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

There is a debate in Sweden if the Automatic Safety and speed enforcement systems (SSS) in Sweden are profitable or not. Cost benefit analysis (CBA) is an excellent tool for determining the economy of traffic safety measures. The parameters of the CBA in this work include: tire wear, fuel consumption, environmental pollution, saved lives and injuries, reduced material damage, time for disputing tickets, time in traffic lines due to accidents, longer time due to lower speed and collected fines and maintained cost for the SSS. The sensitivity analysis shows that the SSS system appears to be profitable and the greatest uncertainty arises from the calculation of saved lives. Each SSS will on average generate a profit of approximately 250,000 SEK annually.

With the increasing amount of buildings that are being renovated in Austria, the potential of replacing conventional heating systems with heat pumps increases and thus CO2 emissions could be reduced. Several companies therefore focus on installing combined heat pump and PV systems. The installation of heat pumps and PV systems are being subsidized in Austria with different schemes for every state. The subsidy programs could therefore be clearer and more constant, like the Swedish heat pump subsidies of the last decades. Heat pumps currently cover the heating of over 10% of the gross floor area of single-family houses in Austria. For multifamily houses less than 5% of the gross floor area is heated with heat pumps. The research goal has been to analyze the sensitivity of the net present value (NPV), benefit cost ratio (BCR) and internal rate of return (IRR) on different input parameters for the replacement of a conventional heating system in a multifamily house, by a heat pump combined with a PV system. This way it could be researched what parameters would have most influence on the profitability of a combined heat pump and PV system. A case study has therefore been performed on the replacement of a gas heating system by an ambient air/water heat pump and a borehole ground source heat pump combined with a PV system in a multifamily house in Vienna. A model has been developed with Excel to perform this analysis uses the building space heating demand generated from a simulation tool created internally by AIT: The Building Model Generator. The model calculates the annual energy demand of a multifamily building in Vienna, which leads to the annual costs and benefits with respect to the conventional gas heating system. This model has been validated by a model created with the Polysun software. The results of the analysis showed that installing a combined heat pump and PV system to replace a gas heating system in a multifamily house would improve the NPV in comparison to installing the heat pump or PV system separately. The BCR is greater than one for both the combined air/water heat pump and PV system (AW HP+PV) and the combined ground source heat pump and PV system (GS HP+PV) for the currently used input. Subsidies currently have a large influence on the NPV and payback time of the installment of these combined systems, especially for the GS HP+PV due to the high investment subsidies for this type of heat pump in Vienna. The sensitivity analysis shows that the bigger the PV area of these combined systems, the higher the BCR, but this BCR increase flattens out for increasing PV areas. The investment costs have a large influence: if these would decrease somehow by 50%, the BCR would double. The large influence of the investment costs is shown by the sensitivity analysis on the assumptions for the heat pump investment costs as well. The electricity price has a larger influence on the BCR than the feed-in tariff does. When the electricity price decreases, the BCR increases. It could be concluded from the sensitivity analysis that the gas price has the largest influence however. Because of this high dependency on the gas price, a gas price increase could even make subsidies redundant. Increasing the gas price could thus be the quickest way to stimulate the sales of combined heat pump and PV systems, which could lead to a decrease of approximately 45%-60% of the total CO2 emissions for every multifamily house where these combined heat pump and PV systems are installed. In the future the Excel model could be included in the Building Model Generator. With only a few input parameters it would then be possible to evaluate the replacement of a heating system with another heating system in different building types for the whole of Austria where there are various subsidy schemes.<br>Med ökande antal byggnader som renoveras i Österrike, ökar även potentialen för att byta ut det konventionella värmesystemet mot värmepumpar. Således kan CO2-utsläpp minskas. Därför fokuserar flera företag på att installera kombinerade värmepump och PV system. Installationen av värmepumpar och PV system subventioneras i Österrike, men subventionerna kan vara klarare och mer konstant, som det har varit i Sverige under de senaste decennierna. För närvarande omfattar värmepumpar mer än 10% av uppvärmningen av den totala golvytan av enfamiljshus i Österrike. Beträffande flerfamiljshus motsvarar värmepumparna mindre än 5% av uppvärmningen av den totala golvytan. Forskningsmålet har varit att analysera känsligheten av nuvärdet (NPV), förmånskostnadskvoten (BCR) och den interna avkastningen (IRR) på olika inmatningsparametrar för ersättningen av ett gasvärmesystem i ett flerfamiljshus, mot en värmepump kombinerat med ett PV system. På så sätt kunde det undersökas vilka parametrar som har mest inflytande på lönsamheten av en värmepump och PV system. Därför utfördes en fallstudie på ersättningen av ett gasvärmesystem med en luft/vatten värmepump och en bergvärmepump kombinerad med ett PV system i ett flerfamiljshus i Wien. En modell har utvecklats med Excel för att utföra den här analysen använder byggnadsutrymmets värmeefterfrågan som genereras av ett program som har skapats internt av AIT:s Building Model Generator. Excelmodellen beräknar det årliga energibehovet av ett flerfamiljshus i Wien, som leder till de årliga kostnaderna och fördelarna med avseende på ett konventionellt gasvärmesystem. Excelmodellen har validerats med en modell som har skapats med mjukvaran Polysun. Resultaten av analysen visade att installera ett kombinerat värmepump- och PV system för att byta ut ett gasvärmesystem i ett flerfamiljshus skulle förbättra NPV-värdet jämfört mot att installera ett värmepumpeller PV system separat. Resultaten visar att, för de aktuella inmatningarna, BCR-värdet är större än ett för både det kombinerade luft/vatten värmepump- och PV systemet (AW HP+PV) och det kombinerade bergvärmepump- och PV systemet (GS HP+PV). För närvarande har subventioner en stor påverkan på NPV-värdet och återbetalningstiden av installationen av dessa kombinerade system, framförallt på GS HP+PV på grund av höga investeringssubventionerna av den här typen av värmepumpar i Wien. Känslighetsanalysen visar att desto större PV-yta av dessa kombinerade system, desto högre BCR-värde, men ökningen plattas ut för ökande PV-ytor. Investeringskostnaderna har stort inflytande: om dessa på något sätt skulle minska med 50%, skulle BCR-värdet fördubblas. Den stora påverkan av investeringskostnaderna visas även i känslighetsanalysen av antagandena för investeringskostnader för värmepumpen. Inmatningstariffen har inte stort inflytande på BCR-värdet. Elpriset har en större påverkan än inmatningstariffen. När elpriset sänks, ökar BCR-värdet. Från känslighetsanalysen kan slutsatsen dras att gaspriset har största inverkan. På grund av den här stora påverkan av gaspriset, kunde även en gasprisökning göra subventioner överflödiga. Att öka gaspriset kunde således vara det snabbaste sättet att stimulera försäljningen av kombinerade värmepump och PV system, som kan leda till en minskning av ungefär 45%- 60% av totala CO2 utsläppen för varje flerfamiljshus där dessa kombinerade värmepump och PV system är installerade. I framtiden kan Excelmodellen komma bifogad i Building Model Generatorn. Med några få inmatningar kommer det sedan vara möjligt att värdera ersättningen av ett värmesystem med ett annat värmesystem i olika byggnadstyper i hela Österrike där flera subventioner gäller.

This study explored energy solutions for Ghana by analysing alternative pathways from 2010 to 2040. The Long-range Energy Alternating Pathways (LEAP) tool was used the scenarios analysis. Four scenarios were developed based on key influencing factors identified in the literature. These are Base case, Coal, Modest Renewable Energy Technology (RET), and High RET scenarios. The Base case scenario was based on government-planned expansion and assumed no shift in policy. The Coal scenario assumed the same expansion trend as Base case with introduction of coal plants replacing a percentage of natural gas generation. Modest and High RET scenarios examined the development of the system with increased renewable energy integration. The results revealed that overall benefits are achieved with higher integration of renewable energy technologies. Economic benefits of 0.5 –13.23% is achieved in the RET scenarios depending on the cost development over the 30 year study period. The high RET offers the highest economic and environmental benefits. Subsequently, the optimal development of the system was examined using the LEAP/OSeMOSYS (Open Source Energy Modelling System) optimisation methodology. The least cost system developed by LEAP (Optimum scenario), was used as a reference to examine future possible energy policy direction in Ghana. The policy constraints analysed included emission targets, carbon taxes and transmission, distribution losses improvements and demand side efficiency. The results show that: suitable policies for clean power generation have an important role in CO2 mitigation in Ghana. The introduction of carbon minimisation policies will also promote diversification of the generation mix with higher penetration of renewable energy technologies. The study proposes promoting energy efficiency and improvement in transmission and distribution losses and utilisation of renewable energy as the best energy strategy for Ghana. Ghana needs ambitious targets, policies and implementation strategies to enhance energy efficiency, and decrease demand in the long term. Stable funding and promotion of transparent policies are required to promote high development of renewable energy technologies.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Ohio State University, 2005.<br>Title from first page of PDF file. Document formatted into pages; contains xxiii, 306 p.; also includes graphics (some col.) Includes bibliographical references (p. 297-306). Available online via OhioLINK's ETD Center

This study examines notions of government and market failure in British healthcare by tracking and analysing the changing views of opinion formers. Presenting original data that highlights the attitudes of today's opinion formers towards populist notions in health economics it provides a unique insight into the limits and boundaries of contemporary debate. Significantly, the research concludes that swathes of elite opinion no longer support the National Health Service (NHS) in its traditional nationalised guise. While opinion formers instead now believe in a much greater plurality of public and private healthcare today's elite not only question the idea of state healthcare but they also remain sceptical of a purist libertarian market. Indeed, in noting that healthcare has always attracted the interventionist attentions of those with state power, the study questions in fundamental ways the meaning of such terms as 'market' and 'private sector'. In highlighting the timeless propensity for medical and health professionals to seek legislative favour, it argues that the world has never actually seen anything resembling a real market in the bio-medical paradigm and its forbears. Healthcare has always been a deeply corporatist venture run in association with a range of mystical, military, religious, or purely political statist elites. The study begins with an historical overview of healthcare from the military hospitals of the Roman period, through the religiosity of the Middle Ages, the mutuality of the nineteenth century, the statism of the National Health Service and the recent rise of public private partnerships. Examining such concepts as monopoly, consumer ignorance, moral hazard and externality, it also analyses notions of public versus private goods in the context of today's healthcare.

Fieldwork methods are used to analyse the nature of franchise systems in the UK. These systems are viewed in terms of their contractual relationships following theoretical approaches suggested by the economics of organisation, including agency analysis. In particular, product, brand and specialised-input franchises are identified and fee schedules are placed in the context of the wider franchise contract. The fieldwork covers 19 case studies of UK franchising systems. The thesis contains a predictive theory of franchising. This identifies initial investments which franchisees undertake as hostages with screening and bonding properties for the franchisor. These hostages influence monitoring costs. The thesis makes an operational, use of modern transaction-cost ideas.

"Large amounts of renewable energy generation are being introduced into modern power systems to decrease the environmental impact of power generation. Despite benefits, increased renewable energy penetration will likely create additional system instability and unpredictability. Increasing line capacity via redundancy of transmission networks and utilizing energy storage are two methods that can be used to increase transmission power system stability. This thesis investigates the economic effects of energy storage and line capacity in isolated test systems. Utilizing Powerworld Simulator, test systems based off two common industry test bed standards (WECC 9-bis, IEEE 14-bus) were built using scaled real-world generation and load data. Multiple Optimal Power Flow studies performed on the test systems with and without the addition of energy storage model revealed the incremental change in overall system cost of adding energy storage and highlighted the impact energy storage has on isolated systems with renewable energy."

As more countries progress towards renewable energy, intermittency in the power system is causing an unreliable power supply. Flexibility solutions from prosumers, which both consume and produce electricity, is one solution to provide stability to the power system. Households with both PV and energy storage are studied for this purpose in this thesis where the following flexibility services for both a household and the electricity grid of Sweden are studied: Increasing PV self-consumption, peak shaving, energy arbitrage at the day-ahead electricity market and providing the frequency regulation reserves FCR-N, FCR-D, aFRR and mFRR. Each house is assumed to have a 10 kW PV capacity and a battery capacity of 7.68 kWh. The services are studied in the software HOMER Grid and are modelled in different scales to see how the load in different aggregated levels affect the services. The case studies are a single family house, an overloaded transformer, an energy community and on a national scale. For the aggregated case studies, the potential capacity for PV will be based on the existing Swedish policies and the number of energy storages will be inspired by one the leading countries in Europe in energy storage installations, Germany. The results showed that for a single household the self-consumption and self-sufficiency increased the most with an addition of a battery. The battery was most efficient in peak shaving and reducing the overall electricity cost when the electricity fee targeted both the electricity consumption during peak hours and the monthly peaks. With this price scheme, the payback time of the battery and PV system is around 14 years. However, when the electricity fee is only targeting the electricity consumption during peak hours, the results showed that the monthly electricity demand peaks actually increase with an addition of a battery. For the aggregated case studies, it showed that decentralized batteries are not as effective in decreasing the electricity demand peaks if the peak lasts more than a few hours. On a national scale the results show that 20% of the aggregated batteries capacity is sufficient to provide around 70-100% of each of the frequency reserves individually. The highest savings are gained for the households when both the primary frequency reserves, FCR-N and FCR-D, are provided by the aggregated batteries together with increasing the PV self-consumption, peak shaving and energy arbitrage. The battery payback time is then reduced to 11 years. Based on a sensitivity analysis, the costs that affects the battery payback the most are the investment cost and the power fee.<br>I takt med att fler länder använder sig mer av förnybar energi, ökar opålitligheten i kraftsystemet på grund av förnybar energis intermittenta natur. Flexibilitetslösningar från konsumenter som kan både producera och konsumera el är en lösning för att förse stabilitet till kraftsystemet. Hushåll med både PV och batteri studeras för detta ändamål i detta examensarbetet där följande flexibilitetstjänster för både hushållet och elnätet studeras: Öka egenkonsumtionen av solel, kapning av effekttoppar, energiarbitrage samt tillhandahålla frekvensregleringens reserver FCR-N, FCR-D, aFRR och mFRR. Varje hus antas ha en 10 kW installerad kapacitet för PV och 7.68 kWh för batteriet. Tjänsterna studeras i programmet HOMER Grid och modelleras i olika skalor för att undersöka hur elkonsumtionen i aggregerade nivåer påverkar dessa tjänster. Fallstudierna är ett enskilt hus, en överbelastad transformator, en samling av hus samt i nationell skala. För de aggregerade fallstudierna kommer den potentiella kapaciteten för PV baseras på Energimyndighetens målbild för produktion av solel och antalet batterier är inspirerade av ett av de ledande länderna i Europa inom energiinstallationer, Tyskland. Resultaten visar att för ett enskilt hushåll ökar egenförbrukningen och självförsörjningen som mest med både batteri och PV. Batteriet var mest effektiv med att minska effekttopparna och den totala elkostnaden när eltariffen innehöll både effekttariffen och tidstariffen. PV systemet med batteriet hade då en återbetalningstid på 14 år. Med endast tidstariffer visar resultatet att de månatliga effekttopparna ökar med tilläggen av batteriet. För de aggregerade fallstudierna visar resultatet att decentraliserade batterier inte är lika effektiva att minska effekttopparna om de varar mer än några timmar. På nationell skala visar resultaten att 20% av den sammanlagda batterikapaciteten är tillräcklig för att förse cirka 70–100% av varje frekvensreserv. Den högsta besparingen för hushållen för den nationella fallstudien fås när både av de primära frekvensreserverna, FCR-N och FCR-D tillhandahålls av de aggregerade batterierna, tillsammans med tjänsterna för att öka PV-konsumtionen, kapning av effekttopparna och energiarbitrage. Batteriets återbetalningstid reduceras då till 11 år. Känslighetsanalysen visar att de kostnader som påverkar batteriets återbetalning mest är investeringskostnaden och effekttariffen.

This research investigates the effect of macro-economic factors on audit fees in two distinctive communal arrangements which is an addition to the limited amount of literature related to this topic. Auditee and auditor characteristics related variables have been a part of several audit fee research studies unlike the macro-economic variables which are diverse in different settings, for which we wanted to test their effect on the audit remuneration. Following the footsteps of Leuz et al. (2003), investor rights, development of financial markets, concentration of ownership, legal enforcement and level of disclosure are all tested in two cross-country settings by generating one variable called cluster defining the macro-economic characteristics. Considering La Porta et al., (1998), Taylor & Simon (1999), Francis, Khurana, & Pereira (2001), Leuz at al., (2003) Vlek (2008) and Zhan (2012), we assumed that due to the aforementioned characteristics being stronger in common law countries causes the auditors to charge a higher fee. Moreover, it is also hypothesized that auditee and auditor related characteristics maintain a positive relationship when regressed with audit fees, as done in earlier studies. This research takes 2027 firm-year observations listed on both the German and UK stock exchanges from 2010–2016 (specifically those observations for which the audit fee data was represented). The outcome after truncating and conducting a regression analysis clearly showed an influence on audit fees, supporting the previous research studies that distinct common law arrangement causes an upward effect on the audit fees. Lower investor protection laws, level of disclosure, legal enforcement, less developed financial markets and higher concentration of ownership are all associated with code law setting. In addition, an interaction term was formed between leverage and size of the firm, based on an assumption that companies having a bigger brand name, more presence and a higher performance rate around the world can easily obtain financial debt, whether equity related or from banks which does not hold true, showing a negative impact on the audit fees.

This dissertation presents a comprehensive experimental and thermo-economic evaluation of coal gasifiers with in-situ carbon capture for generating high-hydrogen and high-methane content syngas for solid oxide fuel cell power plants. The goals of this thesis were the following: to conduct lab-scale experiments on catalytic coal gasification with in situ capture of acid gases, such as CO2 and H2S; to use the experimental results to model a commercial scale catalytic, in situ capture, coal/waste gasifiers; to integrates this gasifier with a solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) system and to an build economic model to determine the internal rate of return on investment (IRR) of this system; then to compare the IRR of these power plant designs with other fossil fuel based power plant designs with CO2 capture and sequestration (CCS); and finally, to use the techniques/models developed here create an economic model of a SOFC fueled by an anaerobic digester. In this thesis, we estimate what range of economic parameters, such as SOFC stack capital cost, electricity sale price, and capacity factor, are required so that the systems analyzed can obtain unsubsidized, positive rates of returns on investment. The following are the highlights from each of the chapters. First, a molten catalytic process has been demonstrated for converting coal into a synthesis gas consisting of roughly 20% methane and 80% hydrogen using alkali hydroxides as both catalysts and in situ CO2 & H2S capture agents. Baselines studies were also conducted using no catalyst, a weak capture agents (CaSiO3) and strong in situ capture agents for acid gases (NaOH, KOH & CaO). Parametric studies were conducted to understand the effects of temperature, pressure, catalyst composition, steam flow rate and the coal-to-catalyst ratio on the performance of the catalytic gasifier in terms of kinetics and syngas composition. Second, we conducted multi-cycle studies in which CaCO3 was calcined by heating to 900oC to regenerate the CaO, which was then re-used in repeated CaO-CaCO3 cycles. We measured increased steam-coal gasification kinetics rates when using both CaO+KOH; these rates persisted even when the material was reused in six cycles of gasification and calcination. Third, we present an exergy and economic analysis of a power plant system that integrates a CaOlooping gasifier with a pressurized, solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC). We used the gas composition, steamcoal gasification rate and CO2 capture cycle degradation rate from the previous chapter as input into the model of this CaO-looping gasifier. We conducted an economic analysis of the system as a range of different operating pressures, current densities, fuel utilizations, and air stoichiometric ratios. We calculated an IRR of 6%/yr±4%/yr for the system when the sale price of electricity was $50/MWh if the CO2 could be used for enhanced oil recovery (EOR), where the uncertainty accounts only for an estimated uncertainty in the capital costs of +50%/-30%. We conducted a sensitivity analysis to determine the effect of changing some of the assumptions in our cost model, such as the price of the fuel cell stacks, the sale price of CO2, the sale price of electricity, the capacity factor, and the fuel price. Fourth, for comparison, we present exergy and economic analyses of two advanced coal-based power plants configurations in which the CO2 capture occurs outside of the gasifier. These cases are: an integrated gasification fuel cell cycle with a catalytic gasifier and a pressurized solid oxide fuel cell including CO2 sequestration (Adv. IGFC-CCS) and an integrated gasification combined cycle with advanced H2 and O2 membrane separation including CO2 sequestration (Adv. IGCC-CCS). Using the same economic assumptions, the IRR of the Adv. IGFC-CCS configuration was 4±3 %/yr if the CO2 can be used for EOR and 1±3 %/yr if the CO2 can only be sequestered in a saline aquifer. The IRR of the Adv. IGCC-CCS configuration with H2 and O2 membrane separation was 8±4 %/yr if the CO2 can be used for EOR and 3±3 %/yr if the CO2 must be sequestered in a saline aquifer. Fifth, we compare the IRR of these configurations with the IRR of other fossil fuel power plant configurations. For example, we present results showing which power plant configuration would yield the lowest levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) as a function of the price of CO2 emissions and a function of the price of natural gas, holding all other variables constant. Finally, we present an economic analysis of a configuration that uses biogas produced from an anaerobic digester (AD) to fuel a solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) modeled based off of the pressurized SOFC we developed to the IGFC configurations presented earlier. We performed parametric studies of the AD-SOFC system in order to minimize the normalized capital cost ($/kW). The four independent variables were the current density, the stack pressure, the fuel utilization, and the total air stoichiometric ratio. Given our economic assumptions, our calculations show that adding a new AD-SOFC system to an existing wastewater treatment (WWT) plant could yield positives values of IRR (9%/yr ±4%/yr at $80/MWh electricity sale price), and could significantly outcompete other options for using biogas to generate electricity. AD-SOFC systems can convert WWT plants in net generators of electricity rather than net consumers of electricity while generating positives rates of return on investment, based on the assumptions of this analysis.

Biogas is a renewable and carbon neutral fuel, that can help the UK meet its increasing energy demand, while simultaneously reducing the net greenhouse gas emissions. All the biogas utilisation routes modelled, return positive avoided greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Biogas to combined heat and power (CHP) returns higher avoided emissions than biogas upgrading to biomethane and injection into the gas grid across the entire heat utilisation range (0% to 100%). The current renewable energy incentives, offered by the UK government, allow utilising biogas via either CHP, or biomethane production to return positive net present values (NPV). A theoretical membrane with improved separation properties (termed "future" membrane) allows reduction in energy consumption and increase in NPV. The future membrane returns positive net present values without the aide of subsidies, however, subsidies are required in order to compete with biogas to CHP. When 2014 subsidies were applied (7.7 pence/kWh of biomethane), the future membrane returned a higher NPV (£28.3million) than biogas to CHP (£27.5million). The proposed development fuel maximum buy-out for biogas derived transport fuels would make the minimum selling point (MSP) of upgraded biogas transport fuel lower than diesel by 2-10 pence/kWh. Enriching biogas with natural gas is a lower cost method of achieving a gas mix that complies with internal combustion engine specifications than upgrading biogas with either current membranes, or future membranes. However, the renewable fraction of the final transport fuel would only contain a maximum renewable energy fraction of 30%, if enriching biogas with natural gas. The largest overall contributor to producing biogas derived transport fuel is the cost of producing biogas.

Thesis (M. Eng. in Logistics)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2003.<br>Paged continuously. Each page no. is preceded by a chapter no.<br>Includes bibliographical references (leaves 88-89).<br>In today's supermarket world, consumers apart from demanding 'higher and higher quality at lower and lower prices', want more and more product choices. This has put tremendous pressure on supermarkets and their infrastructure. With better information technology, forecasting techniques, planning tools, demand fulfillment and supplier relationships supermarkets can meet the rising demand much better than ever before. But inorder to meet this demand at the lowest price they need to rethink their inbound logistics and re-optimize their warehouses. This has spurred a growth in warehousing outsourcing. The study is concerned with evaluating the cost benefit between the internal and the external warehousing for the food retail industry, while addressing the following issues: 1. Advantages and disadvantages of an internal and external warehouse. 2. Importance of alignment of logistics strategy and corporate strategy. 3. Vendor items which should be outsourced or insourced The study was conducted by evaluating the economic value for fifteen different vendors of a regional supermarket chain with the objective to help the supermarket chain reassess its warehousing strategy.<br>by Vikas Mehrotra.<br>M.Eng.in Logistics

European industries have realized that a reduction of primary energy usage is not only a European requirement but can also be of great economic interest. Especially both energy and resource intensive industries like the pulp and paper industry will benefit. Industrial excess heat as a by-product of industrial processes needing energy has a great potential to be a key factor in reducing primary energy usage. Both excess heat utilization and heat integration are potential ways for Kraft pulp mills to increase their energy efficiency, to decrease their primary energy use and thus green-house gas emission, and to support the pulp and paper industry to achieve sustainability goals and meet EU regulations. This thesis examines the total excess heat potential in the Swedish Kraft pulp industry through pinch analysis and optimization on a modelled average Swedish Kraft pulp mill (FRAM). Different excess heat recovery technologies (EHRTs) are identified based on their applicability and are evaluated regarding their environmental and economic benefits for the Swedish pulp industry by using the energy price and carbon scenarios tool (ENPAC tool). An excess heat potential in the Swedish Kraft pulp mill industry of 2,03 TWh at 60°C, and 3,53 TWh at 25°C is found in this study. Heat delivery to the district heating network (DH), cooling delivery to the district cooling network (DC), electricity generation with a condensing turbine (CT), phase-change material engine (PCM) and organic Rankine cycle (ORC) are identified as suitable excess heat recovery technologies for Swedish Kraft pulp mills. A payback time calculation in this study found the condensing turbine as the EHRT to be of highest economic benefit in 2018 (less than 3 years). With predicted future energy prices of the years 2030, 2040 and 2050 all considered recovery technologies become economically feasible (payback time of less than 3 years). The CT and combinations of CT with DH and DC are furthermore the recovery technologies with the highest CO2 savings of 100.000 t/a in 2018. All in all, this study suggests investing in a CT, or combinations of it with DH and DC, to create the greatest economic and environmental benefits in 2018. With future price changes on the energy market and an uncertain future energy demand an investment in combinations of recovery technologies generating both heat, cooling and electricity is found to be the most sustainable choice.

Thesis: S.M. in Technology and Policy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Technology and Policy Program, 2015.<br>Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.<br>Includes bibliographical references (pages 129-146).<br>Bankable and sustainable utility business models are key to the secure and efficient functioning of critical electric power infrastructure. Due to a variety of factors, including technological progress and policy goals, many electric power industry stakeholders believe the business model of electric utilities is on the precipice of unprecedented change. However, calls for dramatic changes to utility business models must be backed by substantive analysis of what aspects of the business model must change, who is best suited to provide what services, and what resources should be deployed to provide these services. This thesis presents a review of current utility business models, an introduction to the agents driving changes in utility business models, and a methodology for assessing emerging business models that bridges two important but heretofore unlinked fields of business model analysis. This thesis first provides a definition of the electricity services upon which business models in the utility industry are based. These definitions are grounded in linear programming and fundamental power system economics and technology. Next, this thesis provides an ontological taxonomy of electricity services business models, and demonstrates the application of this taxonomy on demand response and solar photovoltaics business models. This ontological breakdown is extended from management and strategy literature developed over the past fifteen years in the context of emerging Internet-based businesses. This thesis then demonstrates how quantitative models can be used in combination with qualitative analyses to provide a more complete understanding of which, if any, emerging electricity services business models may prove technically and economically attractive. A case study is performed on solar PV and electricity storage business models.<br>by Scott P. Burger.<br>S.M. in Technology and Policy

The nuclear industry lacks a well documented, systematic procedure defining the requirements for power plant cycle selection and optimisation. A generic technoeconomic optimisation methodology is therefore proposed that can serve in the selection of balance-of-plant configurations and design conditions for High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) power plants. The example of a cogeneration steam plant coupled to a pebble bed reactor, with or without an intermediate buffer circuit, was used in search of a suitable methodology. The following analyses were performed: • First order thermal hydraulic analysis • Second order thermal hydraulic analysis including cost estimation • Third order steady state analysis to evaluate part-load operation • Third order transient analysis to test operability and controllability The assumptions, level of detail required, modelling methodology and the type of decisions that can be made after each stage are discussed. The cycles under consideration are evaluated and compared based on cycle efficiency, capital cost, unit energy cost and operability. The outcome of this study shows that it is worthwhile spending the effort of developing a second order costing model and a third order model capable of analysing off-design conditions. First order modelling could be omitted from the methodology. The advantage of a second order model is that the cycle configuration can be optimised from a unit energy cost perspective, which incorporates the effects of both capital cost and cycle efficiency. The optimum cycle configuration differs from that predicted by first order modelling, which illustrates that first order modelling alone is insufficient. Third order part-load operation analysis showed operability issues that were not apparent after first or second order modelling. However, transient analysis does not appear justified in the very early design stages. To conclude, the proposed methodology is summarised as follows: • Evaluate the user requirements and design constraints. • Apply design principles from the Second Law of thermodynamics in selecting cycle configurations and base case operating conditions. • Optimise the operating conditions by performing second order thermal hydraulic modelling which includes component design and cost estimation. • Evaluate part-load operation with third order analysis. • Select the cycle with the lowest Levelised Unit Energy Cost (LUEC) and simplest operating strategy.<br>Thesis (M.Ing. (Mechanical Engineering))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2010.

Thesis: Ph. D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2011.<br>Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.<br>Includes bibliographical references (pages 186-197).<br>Climate and energy security concerns have prompted policy action in the United States and abroad to reduce petroleum use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from passenger vehicles. Policy affects the decisions of firms and households, which inevitably react to changing constraints and incentives. Developing and applying models that capture the technological and behavioral richness of the policy response, and combining model insights with analysis of political feasibility, are important agendas for both research and policy. This work makes four distinct contributions to these agendas, focusing on the case of climate and energy policy for passenger vehicles in the United States. First, this work contributes to econometric studies of the household response to gasoline prices by investigating whether or not U.S. households alter their reliance on higher fuel economy vehicles in response to gasoline price changes. Using micro-level household vehicle usage data collected during a period of gasoline price fluctuations in 2008 to 2009, the econometric analysis shows that this short-run vehicle switching response, while modest, is more pronounced for low income than high income households, and occurs on both a total distance and per trip basis. Second, this work makes a methodological contribution that advances the state of empirical modeling of passenger vehicle transport in economy-wide macroeconomic models. The model developments include introducing an empirically-based relationship between income growth and travel demand, turnover of the vehicle stock, and cost-driven investment both in reduction of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle fuel consumption as well as in adoption of alternative fuel vehicles and fuels. These developments offer a parsimonious way of capturing important physical detail and allow for analysis of technology-specific policies such as a fuel economy standard (FES) and renewable fuel standard (RFS), implemented individually or in combination with an economy-wide cap-and-trade (CAT) policy. The new developments within the model structure are essential to capturing physical system constraints, interactions among policies, and unintended effects on non-covered sectors. Third, the model was applied to identify cost-effective policy approaches in terms of both energy and climate goals. The RFS and FES policies were shown to be at least six to fourteen times as costly as a gasoline tax on a discounted basis in achieving a 20% reduction in cumulative motor gasoline use. Each of these policies was shown to have only a modest effect on economy-wide carbon dioxide emissions. Combining a fuel economy standard and a renewable fuel standard produced a gasoline reduction around 20% lower than the sum of forecasted reductions under each of the policies individually. Under an economy-wide CAT policy that targets GHG emissions reduction at least cost, obtaining additional reductions in passenger vehicle gasoline use with RFS or FES policy increases the total policy cost, and does not result in additional reductions in GHG emissions. The analysis shows the importance of integrated assessments of multiple policies that act on separate parts of a system to achieve a single goal, or on the same system to achieve distinct goals. Fourth, a political analysis shows how, in the case of climate and energy policy for passenger vehicles, sharp trade-offs exist between economic efficiency and political feasibility. These tensions are shown to exist at the level of policy justification, policy type, and design choices within policies. The pervasiveness of these tensions suggests that economically-preferred policies will face the greatest barriers to implementation. This work concludes by integrating the findings from each of the individual parts to make recommendations for policy. Recognizing the heterogeneity of household responses, the prescriptions of the economic analysis, and the tensions between these prescriptions and politics, policy options should be evaluated not only based on cost effectiveness, but also on their ability to serve as stepping stones toward desirable end states by providing incentives to revisit and increase policy cost effectiveness over time.<br>by Valerie Jean Karplus.<br>Ph. D.

Thesis: S.M. in Technology and Policy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Engineering, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, 2018.<br>Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.<br>Includes bibliographical references (pages 103-107).<br>Electricity demand has been rising rapidly in the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates). As a result, the diversification and sustainable transition of their electricity sectors has been a priority. As part of these efforts, the GCC countries interconnected their electricity grids in 2011, with the aim of sharing reserve capacity, thus enhancing system reliability. The GCC has sought to further utilize this interconnection by developing a regional market in order to exchange power real-time across borders and reap the economic efficiencies of regional trade. However, the utilization rate of the interconnector remains low (around 8%) due to fuel subsidies, different stages of national electricity market development, and the lack of clear trading rules. This thesis analyzed how the interconnector could be better utilized. A network constrained multi-period economic dispatch with optimal DC power flow and uniform loss representation model was developed in order to assess the economic benefits of cross-border trade within the GCC. It covered fifteen years of planned capacity expansions, from 2016 to 2030, resulting in a model that incorporates 428 power plants across the six GCC countries and a high-level network representation with 26 nodes and 68 high-voltage transmission lines. Analysis specifically focused on how operational costs (fuel and variable operation & maintenance costs) and electricity prices could be reduced by trading power across borders on current and planned GCC infrastructure. Based on the data available, our model revealed that about USD $1 Billion could be saved in annual operational costs (about 2% when using international fuel prices) from this regional electricity trade. The model also revealed the overwhelming impact of fuel subsidies, calculating that the GCC would spend more on fuel subsidies for electricity production annually (around USD $60 Billion) than the complete yearly operational costs of the six countries combined without. Removal of subsidies would significantly affect the volume and direction of exports across the network, flipping some countries from net importers to exporters, as well as impacting the utilization rate of transmission lines.<br>by Alix M.A.H. de Monts de Savasse.<br>S.M. in Technology and Policy

Part One defends the thesis, first advanced by Aristotle, that the conclusion of practical reasoning is an action, and argues for its philosophical significance. Opposition to the thesis rests on a contestable way of distinguishing between acts and contents of reasoning and on a picture of normative principles as external to the actions that fall under them. The resulting view forces us to choose between the efficacious, world-changing character of practical thought and its subjection to objective rational standards. This is a false choice. Aristotle's own understanding of the thesis points the way to an alternative conception of practical reason on which it is at once a power to effect changes in the world and to get things right. Practical reasoning endows the action performed on its basis with a principle that is not imposed on it from outside: instead, it makes the action what it is. Properly understood in terms of the relevant acts of a rational subject, the thesis is defensible and philosophically attractive. Furthermore, it helps us understand the continuity and discontinuity that exists between the motions of human beings and those of other animals, as Aristotle showed.<br>Philosophy

The expectation is that by 2050 in order to mitigate climate change damage little or no fossil fuel will be delivered to homes in the UK. The issue of decarbonising heat has only recently won recognition. The UK Government has launched ambitious policy instruments aimed at both reducing heating consumption and decreasing the carbon intensity of heat supply. The current consensus calls for decarbonisation of heat via electrification, largely a product of national energy system modelling exercises. However, it is argued here these studies have not fully exploited the consequences of the kind of optimisation that would occur under competitive pressure between the different solutions at the level they are deployed. Nor have the external factors that would delimit competing technologies, such as heat densities, or non-economic constraints, been identified under the conditions of a fossil-fuel free economy. The problem is exacerbated by a lack of real experience in the UK with many low carbon heating technologies; new datasets on technology performance are becoming available that are questioning the suitability of aggregate modelling. This thesis explores the adequacy of current analytical tools and data for modelling the transition towards low carbon residential heat. A spatially-explicit techno-economic model is developed to analyse the low carbon transition at multiple scales, exploiting emerging data sources that are allowing new modelling techniques to support robust policy-making. Explicit consideration is given to the role of heat pumps, given their significance in the policy discourse, advancing the impacts of the real field performance of emerging technologies. The results in this thesis point towards the necessity of incorporating detailed representations of the built environment in classical modelling approaches, along with spatial allocation of demands and deployment constraints. To complement the techno-economic modelling, a socio-technical perspective on low grade heat technology transition is applied. This suggests drivers of past transitions need to be understood in a broader context beyond cost and efficiency, and reinforces the importance of scale and space. In turn, institutions may not be adequately aligned to capture the diversity of options and the heterogeneity of users and built infrastructure in current residential heat policy-making.

The International Energy Agency’s Global Status Report 2017 estimates that existing buildings must undergo deep energy renovations, which reduce the energy intensity of buildings by 50% - 70% in order to achieve the “Beyond 2°C” scenario [1]. Many buildings in Bitola, The Republic of North Macedonia, will need considerable upgrades to meet these goals. Among them, health care facilities and education centers have the greatest potential, with energy savings that could reach 35 to 40% [2]. PHI Clinical Hospital Bitola is the largest health care facility in the southwestern region of North Macedonia with a capacity of 500 beds, providing care to almost 300.000 patients annually. It has a heating system based on heavy fuel oil, and an inefficient distribution system which has not been upgraded since the 1970s. There is no centralized ventilation or cooling systems, making it necessary to open and close windows in order to regulate the indoor temperature and generate natural ventilation. This study aims to replace the use of heavy fuel oil (HFO), reduce building related GHG emissions, and increase the primary renewable energy fraction of PHI Clinical Hospital Bitola, by investigating a replacement energy system using heat pumps and solar energy. Special consideration is given to increasing the level of comfort of patients and improving the safety of the indoor environment. Space conditioning, domestic hot water, and electricity demands for three critical buildings are considered in Polysun over a 1-year period. The costs and benefits of technologies including air and ground source heat pumps, solar photovoltaics, and ice thermal energy storage are analyzed. It is determined which of these technologies can be implemented in an energy and cost-efficient manner in the Republic of North Macedonia, thus contributing to the reduction of building related greenhouse gas emissions and other pollutants that contribute to poor air quality. Ground source heat pumps perform superior to air source heat pumps, however, the total life cycle costs of ground source heat pump systems are much higher than air source heat pump systems, making the marginal gains in the technical performance not worth the investment in a borehole field. When using ice thermal energy storage within the cooling and domestic hot water systems the benefits of improved heat pump performance and reduced electricity consumption are not observed. The configuration of thermal storage tested here uses the domestic hot water system to withdraw heat from the thermal storage tank, creating ice, which is then used to decrease the need for cooling using the chiller. However, the cooling load is much larger than the hot water demand, and so any ice generated in the tank is depleted within the first few days of cooling. Many other configurations and control strategies for thermal storage exist which could be the subject of further research. When selecting a renewable energy system that could replace the current HFO boiler in the hospital, the results of this study suggest that an air source heat pump system with solar PV is the recommended solution. For buildings 1 and 2, the final results achieved a primary renewable energy fraction of 62%, a GHG emissions savings of 840 tons of CO2eq equating to a 26% reduction, coming at a capital cost of nearly 2,7 million €, and reducing annual energy expenses by 47%. For building 4 the final system delivers a primary renewable energy fraction of 64%, GHG emissions savings of 109 tons CO2eq or 17%, while costing 0,67 million € in capital expenses and lowering annual energy expenses by 50%.<br>Den internationella energi byråns globala status rapport 2017 uppskattar att existerande byggnader måste undergå djupgående energi renovationer, som ska reducera byggnadernas energiintensitet med 50% - 70% för att uppnå i scenariot “Beyond 2°C” [1]. Många byggnader i Bitola (Republiken av nora Makedonien), kommer att behöva betydande uppgraderingar för att uppfylla dessa mål. Bland dem har hälsovårdsanläggningar och utbildningscenter den största potentialen, med energi besparingar där dessa kan uppnå 35% till 40% [2]. PHI Kliniskt Sjukhus Bitola är den största sjukvårdsanläggningen i den sydvästra regionen av Nora Makedonien med en kapacitet på 500 sängplatser, som ger vård till nästan 300.000 patienter årligen. Det nuvarande värmesystemet är baserat på tung eldningsolja och ett ineffektivt distributionssystem som inte har uppdaterats sedan 1970-talet. Det finns inga centraliserade ventilations- och kylsystem, vilket gör det nödvändigt att öppna och stänga fönster för att reglera inomhustemperaturen och generera naturlig ventilation. Denna studie syftar till att ersätta användningen av tung eldningsolja, minska byggnadsrelaterade växthusutsläpp och öka den primära förnyelsebara energifraktionen av Kliniskt Sjukhus Bitola. Genom att undersöksöka ett ersättande energisystem med värmepumpar och solenergi. Särskild hänsyn tas till öka patienternas komfort och förbättra säkerheten i inomhusmiljön. Värme och kyla, varmvatten och el-krav för tre kritiska byggnader betraktas i Polysun under en 1- års period. Kostnaderna och fördelarna med tekniken inklusive luft och markvärmepumpar, solceller och termisk energilagring analyseras. Det fastställs vilken av dessa tekniker som kan implementeras på ett energi- och kostnadseffektivt sätt i Republiken av nora Makedonien, vilket bidrar till att minska byggnadsrelaterade växthusgasutsläpp och andra föroreningar som kan bidra till dålig luftkvalitet. Markvärmepumpar har högre prestanda än luftvärmepumpar, men de totala livscykelkostnaderna för ett markvärmepumpsystem är mycket högre än för ett luftvärmepumpsystem. Vilket gör den marginella vinsterna för den tekniska prestandan inte värda investeringen av ett borrhåls fält. Vid användning av is som termisk energilagring och kylning och varmvattensanläggningar, tog ingen hänsyn till fördelarna med en förbättrad värmepumps prestanda och minskad elförbrukning. Konfigurationen av termisk lagring som testas här använder det inhemska varmvattensystemet för att ta bort värme från den termiska lagringstanken, vilket skapar is som sedan används för att minska behovet av nedkylning av byggnaden. Kylbelastningen är emellertid mycket större än varmvattenbehovet. Vilket betyder att all is som genereras i tanken används upp efter några dagar av kylning. Många andra konfigurationer och styrstrategier för termisk lagring finns och kan vara till ändamål för framtida forskning. När val av ett förnybart energisystem görs som ska kunna ersätta den nuvarande tung eldningsolja pannan på sjukhuset antyder resultatet av denna studie att ett värmepumpsystem med luftkälla och sol-PV är den rekommenderade lösningen. För byggnad 1 och 2 uppnådde det slutliga resultatet en primär förnyelsebar energifraktion på 62%, vilket skulle innebära en besparing av växthusgasutsläpp med 840 ton CO2 ekvivalenter. Vilket motsvarar en minskning med 26%, med en kapitalkostnad på nästan 2,7 miljoner €. Samt minskade årliga energikostnader med 47%. För byggnad 4 levererar det slutliga systemet en primär förnybar energifraktion på 64%, med en -5- besparing av växthusutsläpp på 109 ton CO2 ekvivalenter eller 17%. Medan det kostar 0,67 miljoner € i kapitalutgifter och sänker den årliga energikostnaden med 50%.

<p>Waste management is something that affects most people. Thewaste amounts are still increasing, but the waste treatment ischanging towards recycling and integrated solutions. In Swedenproducers’responsibility for different products, a taxand bans on deposition of waste at landfills implicates areorganisation of the municipal solid waste management. Plansare made for new incineration plants, which leads to that wastecombustion comes to play a role in the reorganisation of theSwedish energy system as well. The energy system is supposed toadapt to governmental decisions on decommission of nuclearplants and decreased use of fossil fuels.</p><p>Waste from private households consists of hazardous waste,scrap waste, waste electronics and wastes that to a largeextent are generated in the kitchen. The latter type has beenstudied in this thesis, except for newsprint, glass- and metalpackages that by source separation haven’t ended up in thewaste bin. Besides the remaining amount of the above mentionedfractions, the waste consists of food waste, paper, cardboard-and plastic packages and inert material. About 80-90 % of thismixed household waste is combustible, and the major part ofthat is also possible to recycle.</p><p>Several systems analyses of municipalsolid waste managementhave been performed. Deposition at landfill has been comparedto energy recovery, recycling of material (plastic andcardboard) and recycling of nutrients (in food waste).Environmental impact, fuel consumption and costs are calculatedfor the entire lifecycle from the households, until the wasteis treated and the by-products have been taken care of.</p><p>To stop deposition at landfills is the most importantmeasure to take as to decrease the environmental impact fromlandfills, and instead use the waste as a resource, therebysubstituting production from virgin resources (avoidingresource extraction and emissions). The best alternative tolandfilling is incineration, but also material recycling andbiological treatment are possible.</p><p>Recycling of plastic has slightly less environmental impactand energy consumption than incineration. The difference issmall due to that plastic is such a small part of the totalwaste amount, and that just a small part of the collectedamount is recycled. Cardboard recycling is comparable toincineration; there are both advantages and disadvantages.Source separation of food waste may lead to higher transportemissions due to intensified collection, but severalenvironmental advantages are observed if the waste is digestedand the produced biogas substitutes diesel in busses.Composting has no environmental advantages compared toincineration, mainly due to lack of energy recovery. Therecycling options are more expensive than incineration. Theincreased cost must be seen in relation to the environmentalbenefits and decreased energy use. If the work with sourceseparation made by the households is included in the analysis,the welfare costs for source separation and recycling becomesnon-profitable. It is however doubted how much time is consumedand how it should be valuated in monetary terms.</p><p>In systems analyses, several impacts are not measured.Environmental impact has been studied, but not allenvironmental impact. As the parts of the system are underconstant change, the results are not true forever. Recyclingmay not be unambiguously advantageous today, but it can be inthe future.</p><p>Despite the fact that systems analysis has been developedduring 10 years in Sweden, there are still many decisions takenregarding waste management without support from systemsanalysis and use of computer models. The minority of users ispleased with the results achieved, but the systems analysis isfar from easy to use. The adaptation of tools and models to thedemands from the potential users should consider thatorganisations of different sizes have shifting demands andneeds.</p><p>The application areas for systems analysis and models arestrategic planning, decisions about larger investments andeducation in universities and within organisations. Systemsanalysis and models may be used in pre-planning procedures. Apotential is a more general application (Technology Assessment)in predominantly waste- and biofuel based energy processes, butalso for assessment of new technical components in a systemsperspective. The methodology and systems approach developedwithin the systems analysis has here been transformed to anassessment of environmental, economic and technical prestandaof technical systems in a broad sense.</p>

Thesis: S.M., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2018.<br>Thesis: S.M. in Technology and Policy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Engineering, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Technology and Policy Program, 2018.<br>Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.<br>Includes bibliographical references (pages 133-145).<br>Modern proposals for Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite constellations underscore the tremendous potential and versatility of distributed spacecraft missions (DSMs), but they have also begun to stress the limits of the existing development paradigm. A new generation of LEO constellations is emerging, and understanding the related technical, economic, and policy landscapes will be critical to fostering their success. The most significant value of this research effort comes from its breadth. LEO constellations are becoming essential tools for a wide range of applications, and this work seeks to examine the diverse set of topics facing modern constellation stakeholders. Through a multidisciplinary, systems engineering evaluation, this thesis synthesizes current knowledge gaps and questions related to second-generation LEO constellations. The investigation begins with a discussion of the historical development of DSMs, and three distinct eras of constellation use are identified. The initial time period, 1959 to 1996, captures the early DSMs that framed the development of modern systems. The first generation spans from 1997 to 2009. It begins with the installation of the first commercial, telecommunications constellations and demonstrates logistic growth for commercial DSM member spacecraft. Growth rates surge again as the second generation begins in 2010, and the data reflect current trends toward commercial, remote-sensing applications of DSM systems. The second generation of LEO constellations coincides with an approximately 189% increase in the annual NGSO satellite launch rate and a 92% increase in the number of constellation systems initialized each year over the first generation. This work continues by underscoring technologies that have enabled this growth through a survey of relevant literature and patent filings. Contemporary issues in constellation technology policy are also examined. Through a series of cost and risk focused case studies, limitations within the existing development and maintenance paradigms are illustrated. The new generation of constellations is challenging the assumptions that have traditionally guided such analyses, and opportunities for further framework development are discussed. This thesis represents a contribution to the advancement of constellation systems by assessing the viability of the existing paradigm and identifying critical areas of future research.<br>Supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Grant No. 1122374<br>by Veronica L. Foreman.<br>S.M.<br>S.M. in Technology and Policy

Several CO2 transcritical booster systems in supermarkets use the potential of integrating geothermal storage, enabling subcooling during warm climate conditions as well as being a heat source during cold climate conditions. First of all, field measurements of one of these systems located in Sweden were analysed with particular focus on the heat-recovery performance. The best theoretical operational strategy was compared to the one really implemented and the differences in the annual energy usage were assessed through modelling. The results show that an alternative to the best theoretical operational strategy exists; heat can be extracted from the ground while low-temperature heat is rejected by the gas cooler. Such an alternative strategy has important technical advantages with a negligible increment of the energy usage. In the second part of this work, the benefits of geothermal subcooling were evaluated. Applying the BIN hours method, it was demonstrated that this system is expected to save on average roughly 5% of the total power consumption, in Stockholm’s climate. The models utilized for the winter and summer season were combined to find the relationship between geothermal storage size and annual energy savings. In this way, it was possible to calculate the present value of the operational savings for the study case. Furthermore, a general methodology for assessing the economic feasibility of this system solution is presented. Finally, several scenarios were investigated to produce parametric curves and to perform a sensitivity analysis. Comparing the results with the typical Swedish prices for boreholes, the cases where this system solution is economically justified were identified. These are supermarkets with a Heat Recovery Ratio (HRR) higher than the average. For examples, supermarkets supplying heat to the neighbouring buildings (considering the Stockholm’s climate, systems with an annual average HRR of at least 70%). Relying only on savings from subcooling was found to be not enough to justify a geothermal storage, a not-negligible amount of heat must be extracted in winter. Finally, some interesting concepts and alternatives to a geothermal integration are presented to point out relevant future work.

This study analyses the effect of socio-economic and communicative factors, farm-level resource constraints, and government policies on the adoption of coconut-based intercropping (CBI) in Sri Lanka. This practice was introduced 20 years ago to overcome the two main limitations of traditional coconut monocropping inefficient land use and low incomes to farmers, but it has not been widely adopted. Benefit-cost, multiple regression, and categorical data analysis, and an assessment of constraints on CBI adoption using a multiperiod linear programming (MLP) model of three farmer groups, categorised using cluster analysis, were carried out using data collected from a farmer survey, on-farm CBI trials and from secondary sources. The economic analysis reveals that CBI gives higher returns per hectare than coconut monocrops, but the benefit-cost ratio, and returns to both labour and working capital of some CBI systems, are lower than those of monocrops. The multiple regression and categorical data analyses indicate that the adoption of CBI is positively influenced by the availability of labour and cash, and by extension contacts, while it is negatively affected by rice cultivation. The MLP model results reveal that an expansion of CBI is mainly constrained by seasonal labour shortages for all farmer groups, particularly the high-income group, and by the scarcity of cash in the case of resource-poor farmers. CBI policies aimed at subsidising inputs or intercrop prices are not likely to be efficient in raising adoption, but alternative policies aimed at alleviating resource constraints would be more effective. The high risks and management demands associated with CBI also affect its adoption because of the diverse activities of coconut farmers. The less risky and reduced management demands of monocropping appear to meet the needs of the many coconut farmers with outside interests.

Master of Science<br>Department of Animal Sciences and Industry<br>Robert L. Weaber<br>The dynamic environments, varying production practices, and general biological uncertainty associated with bovine reproduction makes informed, strategic decision making regarding the implementation of bovine reproductive technology a great challenge for producers. One might also argue that traditionally, ET’s primary focus of genetic improvement has greatly overshadowed any consideration of short to mid-term financial gain. To accomplish the objective of creating an economic risk analysis tool for user-defined embryo transfer (ET) programs, a circumstantial, stochastic prediction model utilizing @Risk© software to generate comparable economic values as an aid in the ET decision making process has been created. More realistic than the use of means in deterministic models, distributions defining the biological uncertainty for a multitude of reproductive outcomes are estimated through extensive literature review and limited industry sources. Applying the Latin Hypercube variation of Monte Carlo simulation, a sample value from the descriptive distribution associated with each stochastic variable is included in an iteration of the simulation. Through large numbers of iterations with dynamic combinations of variables, the process culminates in a distribution of possible values for the net present value (NPV), annuity equivalent net present value (ANPV), and return on investment (ROI) associated with the model described scenario of in-vivo derived (IVD) or in-vitro produced (IVP). Finally, using the distributions of NPV, ANPV, and ROI a decision maker can assess the economic risk linked to a user-defined ET program. To further complicate matters, cattle producers are now presented with a choice between two primary methods of ET. IVD ET describes the traditional method of ET that involves follicular stimulation and insemination of a donor female followed by the collection of fertilized embryos from the uterus. IVP commonly refers to the method of generating transferable embryos by collecting oocytes by ovarian aspiration; in-vitro fertilization of the collected oocytes; and incubated maturation of the fertilized oocytes. Encompassed within the two methods of ET exist several different sub-techniques, principally regarding the exception or inclusion of follicular synchronization and/or stimulation before ovum pick-up (OPU) in IVP procedures. Ultimately, operators must decide whether ET programs, of any type, serve as an economically viable means to increase rate of genetic improvement or take advantage of marketing opportunities. Although several economic value predictors for ET programs already exist (Beltrame et al. 2010), the opportunity remains to create more applicable models for Bos taurus beef production and varying marketing avenues in the U.S. This circumstantial, stochastic simulation model can serve as an aid in the ET decision making process by generating output that allows for the financial risk and sensitivity analysis of a user-defined ET program.

Global growing demand for agricultural production has put increased pressure on freshwater resources in various global locations. Many areas have saline groundwater resources which have not been utilized for agriculture due to the economics associated with water pumping and desalination. Limited availability to electricity and high operational costs of diesel generators are major obstacles to utilization of these resources. Reduced costs associated with large-scale renewable energy have renewed interest in understanding the potential impacts of developing distributed photovoltaic (PV) powered water pumping and desalination systems for agriculture. In order to determine the economic feasibility of solar-powered water pumping and desalination for agriculture, an engineering system model that performs hourly simulations of direct-coupled PV pumping and desalination systems by integrating environmental resource data and industrial component performance data was developed. Optimization algorithms were created to identify the best membrane type, control method and reverse osmosis system configuration for a given set of locational parameters. Economic analysis shows that PV-powered systems are more economical than diesel-powered systems for water pumping, with water desalination costs for PV- and diesel-powered systems being comparable. Grid-powered systems are able to pump and desalinate water for a lower cost than PV or diesel for all cases evaluated. A sensitivity analysis is performed to generalize results for different input parameters and illustrate the impact of input variables on water unit costs. Several case studies in the Jordan Valley were evaluated to illustrate the economic viability of solar-based systems with simulation results including a direct comparison to diesel- and grid-connected alternatives. Results indicate that under fair environmental conditions and irrigating greenhouse vegetables, the PV-, diesel-, and grid-powered systems produce favorable internal rates of return of 40%, 84%, and 248%, respectively. Under poor environmental conditions and less profitable crops the PV-, diesel-, and grid-powered systems all result in negative internal rates of return, illustrating the need for optimal location and crop selection for system implementation.

Thesis: S.M. in Technology and Policy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2014.<br>Thesis: S.M., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, 2014.<br>Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.<br>Includes bibliographical references (pages 61-68).<br>Following substantial discoveries of natural gas in recent years, Tanzania has new options for economic development. The country's policy makers are faced with having to make decisions about how best to utilize the gas in order to drive economic development The options before the government are whether to export the gas or to use it domestically. Exporting natural gas can be a very lucrative source of government revenues which can in turn be invested in improving education, access to healthcare or other areas to improve the general and economic well-being of the populace. Encouraging domestic use on the other hand may not be as lucrative in terms of government revenues, but is necessary for increasing participation along the gas value chain in particular and stimulating in other sectors of the economy that benefit from easy access to gas or its downstream products. In this study, I considered the options of using the gas in the production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) intended for export, as well the domestic manufacture of urea and electricity. I used a scenario analysis model to investigate and assess these options according to their direct economic value as well as their revenue generating potential. These two parameters were chosen as proxies for and economic growth and government ability to invest in public goods respectively. As part of the assessments carried out, special attention was paid to the different scenarios associated with meeting the government's national electrification plans as determined by their electricity demand forecasts. The results show that among the options considered, domestic utilization of the gas for power production will have greatest economic value while LNG exports hold the highest revenue potential. Furthermore, they demonstrate that even though using the natural gas for electricity production would be the most valuable option for the Tanzanian economy per unit of gas, allowing new generating capacity to be dominated by gas plants as has been done in some other gas rich countries would not be economically prudent. Instead a mix of technologies will provide the best balance between stimulating domestic gas consumption and providing cost effective electricity to consumers. Importantly, I find that future policy must ensure that domestic utilization of gas is not sacrificed in favor of exports even if it means reduced government revenues.<br>by Ekenedilinna Umeike.<br>S.M. in Technology and Policy<br>S.M.

Thesis: S.M. in Engineering and Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Engineering, System Design and Management Program, Engineering and Management Program, 2016.<br>Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.<br>Includes bibliographical references (pages 47-55).<br>This thesis quantifies the economic feasibility of building and operating a biorefinery that converts waste vegetable oils into transportation fuels in Mexico. The hydroprocessing technology selected produces predominately diesel and jet fuel that can be used and blended with the existing fossil fuel infrastructure. The analysis shows that a 4,000 BPD plant located in Mexico can reach a positive NPV of approximately $80 million over a 20-year operating period at an internal rate of return of 15% percent. The minimum selling price for reaching this internal rate of return is $2.21 per gallon for diesel and $2.36 per gallon for jet fuel. If sufficient and reliable feedstock supply exist for a scale-up of the biorefinery to 6500 bpd, NPV increases to approximately $180 million. Sensitivity analyses shows that the NPV for the 4000 bpd facility reaches zero at an internal rate of return of 24%, and that the maximum buying price of the waste vegetable oil at the baseline internal rate of return of 15% percent the plant can afford to procure is $0.73 per gallon, which is 36% higher than the average price for the feedstock in 2013. Finally, the thesis quantifies the commercial opportunity of exporting the produced transportation fuels to the United States where they might qualify for monetary incentives. After accounting for transportation costs the NPV of fuel production in the biorefmery increases to $294 million, 368% higher than if transportation fuels are sold in Mexico.<br>by Daniel Camacho Gonzalez.<br>S.M. in Engineering and Management