Letteratura scientifica selezionata sul tema "Domestic partners"

This study involved 219 women participants. The main aim of the present study is to examine the perceived consequences of a work-related promotion for the female partner in a heterosexual relationship. The impact of the promotion was manipulated - both partners share paid and domestic work, the male partner taking responsibility for all the domestic work - or female partner continuing to do all the domestic work, as well as the male partner's sexist ideology. Finally, the study examined gender ideology of participants. The results showed that participants felt that violence was more likely when the male partner was presented as sexist and that this was due to a perception of threat on the part of the male partner.

Domestic violence is prevailing all over the world rapidly. In Mexico City for example, one in three women report violence from the spouse or partner .Another study shows that one out of every five Colombian women were beaten by the partner. . Domestic violence has not only one dimension but it has many types like marital rape, stalking, harassing, honor killings etc which existed in almost all countries in different forms of violence. The increasing ratio of violence also demonstrates that male still think women their subordinate. The major reasons behind increasing violence are imbalances in society and inequalities in gender relationships. The methodology used in the research based on content analysis of news on domestic violence against women from their male partners/spouses published in newspapers.

Is domestic violence more frequent in homosexual partnerships? The 1996 National Household Survey of Drug Abuse, based upon a random sample of 12,381 adults aged 18 to 59 years, estimated that 828,900 men and 828,678 women engaged in homosexuality in the prior 12 months. Random surveys indicated that at any given time, 29% of homosexual men and 32% of homosexual women are in same-sex partnerships. The National Criminal Victimization Survey for 1993 to 1999 reported that 0.24% of married women and 0.035% of married men were victims of domestic violence annually versus 4.6% of the men and 5.8% of the women reporting same-sex partnerships. Domestic violence appears to be more frequently reported in same-sex partnerships than among the married.

A significant percentage of incarcerated women are victims of domestic violence, forced to be involved in illegal activity orchestrated by their abusive partners. Because intimate partner violence is not routinely assessed in prisons, the impact of partner violence is not always recognized or addressed.

A difference-in-difference approach was used to compare the effects of same-sex domestic partnership, civil union, and marriage policies on same- and different-sex partners who could have benefitted from their partners’ employer-based insurance (EBI) coverage. Same-sex partners had 78% lower odds (Marginal Effect = −21%) of having EBI compared with different-sex partners, adjusting for socioeconomic and health-related factors. Same-sex partners living in states that recognized same-sex marriage or domestic partnership had 89% greater odds of having EBI compared with those in states that did not recognize same-sex unions (ME = 5%). The impact of same-sex legislation on increasing take-up of dependent EBI coverage among lesbians, gay men, and bisexual individuals was modest, and domestic partnership legislation was equally as effective as same-sex marriage in increasing same-sex partner EBI coverage. Extending dependent EBI coverage to same-sex partners can mitigate gaps in coverage for a segment of the lesbians, gay men, and bisexual population but will not eliminate them.

The role of technology in intimate partner violence is becoming increasingly common. Intimate partner cyber harassment is a subset of "digital domestic violence", whereby partners and ex-partners use technology to stalk and harass their victims. This article examines intimate partner cyber harassment, discussing the nature of the behaviour, its prevalence in New Zealand and the damaging impact it has on its victims. The focus, however, is on New Zealand's legislative response. The conclusion reached is that despite the recent introduction of the Harmful Digital Communications Act 2015 and the review of both the Harassment Act 1997 and the Domestic Violence Act 1995, protections for victims of cyber harassment in the context of intimate partner violence remain ineffective. The current legislation fails to fully appreciate the complex issue and protections for victims lie behind procedural barriers. This article recommends that amending existing legislation is the most desirable solution as it enables pre-existing protections to be utilised to more effectively apply to and thus protect victims of intimate partner cyber harassment.

The complexities of issues existing in Kenya create a domino effect directly affecting not only the effective management and economic growth of Kenya, but also social and legislative constraints to the lower socioeconomic classes. Land dispossession, proof of ownership to property and nationality are ongoing troubling issues affecting increased orphans and vulnerable children (OVC) in Kenya, most noticeably within predominantly poverty stricken rural enclaves. This research focuses on the bold move of stakeholders of Trinity United Methodist Church in Naivasha, Kenya partnering with First United Methodist Church of Winter Park, Orlando, United States of America. In 2010, they conceptualized Panua Partners in Hope, a transformational ministerial assisted non-profit organization program. These churches recently established support to orphans and vulnerable children (OVC) in Naivasha, Kenya. Decisively apply all their available resources to stem the varying issues these orphaned and vulnerable children (OVC) are facing. Whereby, the program is designed to teach self-sufficiency, wealth creation through sustainable income generation and entrepreneurship, and religious relationship development. Continued education is a key component of which Panua mandates. Ongoing (learning) education ensures each child remain in school – (basic, primary and secondary school levels). In addition to ensuring orphans and vulnerable children (OVC) are legally aware of their civil, human and property rights. Conversely, these issues being perpetual worldwide challenges, however, the aim of this research is to specifically address its impactive progression on orphans and vulnerable children (OVC). Thus, outlining their local conditions, the provisions of governmental policies, and assistance, or lack thereof to remedy such current challenges. Additionally, the research will outline reformed constitutional statutes despite being ratified, have not addressed the major issues currently impinging on the freedom and rights of rural communities in Naivasha, Kenya.
B.S.
Bachelors
Legal Studies
Health and Public Affairs

Background: Instances of female perpetrated domestic violence are rising yet research in this domain is limited and there continues to be a focus on exploring male perpetrated acts of domestic violence (Steinmetz, 1977; Straus & Gelles, 1986). There is evidence of a population of women who are the dominant aggressors of domestic violence yet few studies explore the experiences of this group (Mills, 2003). This study aims to qualitatively explore female perpetrators accounts of their domestic violence toward men and their perceptions of that, including their understanding as to how those acts arose. This could highlight the treatment and supportive needs of this particular group and could inform the way in which counsellors work with female perpetrators through increasing our understanding of the possible factors that are linked with and contribute to their aggression. Method: Interviews were conducted with eight women who self identified as the primary aggressor of domestic violence in their (heterosexual) relationships. Their accounts were audio recorded and analysed using Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis (IPA). Findings: Three themes emerged from this including: violence in the wake of multiple triggers, the all encompassing emotional experience, and violence as the unrecognisable intruder.

This thesis explores changes in the division of paid and domestic work when British couples become parents. It investigates whether the increase in gender inequality that often occurs may be an obstacle to childbearing and relationship quality. Previous research concentrated on mothers' labour market interruptions and connections between female employment and low fertility or high family instability. Considering the division of domestic labour, however, is central to understanding how economic inequalities between men and women are interdependent with women's greater involvement in unpaid work. This thesis also provides the first UK evidence on how domestic work matters to childbearing and relationship quality of new parents in the context of trends towards more egalitarian gender role identities but lagging practice. The theoretical framework combines a rational choice approach to family behaviour with explanations based on gender role identity. The empirical investigation uses event-history analysis and regression models based on fourteen waves (1992-2005) of the British Household Panel Survey. In contrast to neo-classical economic predictions, the change in the division of labour after couples become parents does not depend on women's relative earnings. Instead both partners' gender role identities are more significant. The association between the domestic labour division and childbearing or relationship quality, however, does not vary by women's gender role identities. Men's housework contributions are associated with a higher probability of having a second child for dual-earner couples, although traditional male-breadwinner families are still more likely to have a first and second child. Gender equality in housework and childcare after couples have a child is associated with lower satisfaction with the partner for most mothers but greater relationship stability. Despite emergence of some egalitarian trends, relatively traditional practice and expectations therefore seem to persist among new parents. The gendered UK policy context also favours more traditional arrangements around parenthood.

This study explores the cultural adjustment of the domestic partners of German expatriates working in the Nelson Mandela Bay automotive industry of South Africa. The data was collected by distributing pre-interview questionnaires to the participants and conducting in-depth interviews with them. Grounded theory was used in the data collection and analysis and an auto-ethnographic approach was employed, allowing for reflexivity. The findings suggest that the expatriated domestic partners did not necessarily experience much difficulty in adjusting to South African culture as they did, for example, adjusting to not being able to work for the duration of their stay. The research has also shown that the unmarried domestic partners of expatriate employees are at a disadvantage compared to their married counterparts; receiving less assistance from the companies of their partners. Based on the findings, it has been recommended that companies refine and streamline the assistance they offer to the domestic partners of their expatriate employees, providing all domestic partners with the same pre-departure training and entitling them to the same benefits.

A multi-method study investigating incarcerated women’ s experiences of rage towards their intimate partners was conducted. The sample was drawn from a Philadelphia prisonâ s recovery unit for women. Phenomenological and feminist critical theory perspectives guided the study; these combined approaches captured the essence of rage, while also offering a critical analysis for understanding complexities involved in the cultivation of rage. Three primary forms of data collection methods were used: (a) the Aggression Questionnaire, which was completed by 60 inmates; (b) a Demographic Worksheet, which was completed by 46 inmates and used to screen for subsequent interviews; and (c) in-depth interviews, which was completed by 37 women. Focus groups were used to debrief participants at the completion of the study. Results indicated rage as a distinct experience from anger. Past sources of emotional pain, embedded within shame and trauma, were revealed as fueling current actions of rage. Links between womenâ s social location, their experiences of rage, and their involvement within the criminal justice system were revealed.
Ph. D.

ABSTRACT Background: Partner violence during pregnancy might contribute to the clinical conditions of pregnant women. Early assessment and supportive response are required to improve clinical diagnosis and subsequent care. This scoping review aimed to identify the partner violence screening practices of community-based health care providers in pregnant women. Subjects and Method: A scoping review method was conducted in eight stages including (1) Identification of study problems; (2) Determining priority problem and study question; (3) Determining framework; (4) Literature searching; (5) Article selec­tion; (6) Critical appraisal; (7) Data extraction; and (8) Mapping. The search included PubMed, Science Direct, EBSCO, Wiley Online Library, and ProQuest databases. The inclusion criteria were English-language and full-text articles published between 2010 and 2020. A total of 580 articles were obtained by the searched database. After the review process, eight articles were eligible for this review. The critical appraisal for searched articles were measured by Mix Methods Appraisal Tools (MMAT). The data were reported by the PRISMA flow chart. Results: Two articles from developing countries (Zimbabwe and Kenya) and six articles from developed countries (Australia, Norway, Italy, and Sweden) met the inclusion criteria with a mixed-method, qualitative, and quantitative (cross-sectional) studies. The existing studies revealed that violence screening in pregnant women was effective to increase awareness of violence by their partners. Screening practice had an empowering effect on women to disclose the violence experienced. Barriers to the health care providers performing partner violence screening included: lack of knowledge, experience and training, confidence in undertaking the screening, taboo cultural practices, and absence of domestic violence screening policies. Conclusion: Partner violence screening practice should be strongly considered at antenatal care visits. Further insights of community-based health care providers are required to perform effective screening. Keywords: partner violence screening, pregnant women, health care providers Correspondence: Eviana Maya Saputri. Universitas ‘Aisyiyah Yogyakarta. Jl. Siliwangi No. 63, Nogotirto, Gamping, Sleman, Yogyakarta, 55292. Email: evianamaya34@gmail.com. Mobile: +6281367470323. DOI: https://doi.org/10.26911/the7thicph.03.61

In the new economic and epidemiological climate, the tourism industry is becoming a political and economic priority for Russia’s development. Domestic tourism resources shall be used to the maximum extent whereas patterns and models of international tourism shall be comprehended anew and reformatted. Given the increasing introduction of technology into the fabric of human life and the associated political decisions in the fields of professional employment in tourism and socio-cultural services, the article poses the problem of dialogue between man and machine, and predicts a new dimension of human nature. The phenomenological methodology and analytical approach embraced in the article allows us to argue that engineering content, the technical, the machine, ceases to be a useful service tool to serve human desires and needs. The ‘technical’ becomes a means and a way of shaping ‘new images of the world, values and realities’. New types of social connections and relations arise, in which technical items interact with humans ‘as equals’, and thereby often substitute living interlocutors and partners. Hence the social relationship concept expands. The tourism, hospitality and entertainment industry is concentrating on the changing role of the technical in human life. Through tourism and consumer services, a new type of individuality is being formed, for which the technical becomes an ‘additional living organ’ of natural human nature.

Building America (BA) partner McStain Neighborhoods built the Discovery House in Loveland, Colorado, with an extensive package of energy-efficient features, including a high-performance envelope, efficient mechanical systems, a solar water heater integrated with the space-heating system, a heat-recovery ventilator (HRV), and ENERGY STAR™ appliances. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Building Science Consortium (BSC) conducted short-term field-testing and building energy simulations to evaluate the performance of the house. These evaluations are utilized by BA to improve future prototype designs and to identify critical research needs. The Discovery House building envelope and ducts were very tight under normal operating conditions. The HRV provided fresh air at a rate of about 75 cfm (35 l/s), consistent with the recommendations of ASHRAE Standard 62.2. The solar hot water system is expected to meet the bulk of the domestic hot water (DHW) load (>83%), but only about 12% of the space-heating load. DOE-2.2 simulations predict whole-house source energy savings of 54% compared to the BA Benchmark [1]. The largest contributors to energy savings beyond McStain’s standard practice are the solar water heater, HRV, improved air distribution, high-efficiency boiler, and compact fluorescent lighting package.

Ameresco & Department of Energy Savannah River partnered together to install three biomass fueled energy plants. The main plant is a 20 megawatt steam power plant and the other two smaller plants are thermal heating plants. All three facilities are located on the Department of Energy Savannah River Site (SRS). These facilities were developed and financed under an Energy Savings Performance Contract (ESPC), which utilizes energy and operational savings to fund the capital investment and operations cost over the performance period. Ameresco was fully responsible for the design, installation, oversight, management, safety, environmental compliance, and continues to be responsible for the operations and maintenance of the Biomass Cogeneration Facility. This is the largest biomass facility installed under ESPC in the federal government. The facilities have the capacity to combust 385,000 tons of forest residue annually. In the first year alone, the energy and operation cost savings at SRS is in excess of $34 million. Clean biomass and bio-derived fuels (such as tire derived fuel and untreated pallets) is the primary fuel source for all of the new boilers. Biomass is used to fuel two steam boilers capable of producing 240,000 lb. /hr. of high-pressure steam and to power a steam turbine capable of generating up to 20 MW of electricity. The smaller thermal plants provide biomass-produced steam for the areas’ heating and industrial processes. These plants satisfy winter steam requirements for both domestic heat and process steam and is fueled solely with biomass wood chips, utilizing fuel oil as backup source of fuel. Key benefits of the SRS biomass project include: • Over 2,000,000 MBtu/yr. of thermal renewable energy production and a minimum of generation of 77,000,000 kWh of green power • Annual Energy Reductions of approximately 500,000 MBtu/yr. • No-cost Renewable Energy Credits retained by the DOE SR • Support of the South Carolina Biomass Council Goals • Decrease of water intake from the Savannah River by 1,400,000 kgal/yr., supporting water conservation efforts in the region • Reduction of 400 tons/yr. of Particulate Matter (PM) emissions • Reduction of 3,500 tons/yr. of Sulfur Dioxide emissions • Reduction of 100,000 tons/yr. of Carbon Dioxide emissions The smaller heating plants include the main boiler systems and live bottom trailer fuel storage. The Biomass Cogeneration Facility includes the biomass boiler systems, the steam turbine generation system, and the facility auxiliary systems as well as the site infrastructure within these boundaries. The Facility has been designed, built, and tested per industrial/commercial codes for cogeneration facilities. The main components of the Facility are listed below: • Fuel Yard – Material Unloading & Storage and Delivery System ○ Biomass Fuel Chip unloading system ○ Fuel Storage Area ○ Transfer conveyors ○ Fuel Screening System ○ Tire Derived Fuel Storage & Unloading Area ○ Whole Log Chipping System & Storage • Water Treatment System – Water treatment system to treat river water for use in boilers as well as cooling tower for condensing turbine • Boiler Systems – (2) Boiler Island from metering bin, water side and flue gas side, pollution control devices and stacks • Chemical Treatment System – Chemical skids, injection skids for cooling tower and boiler treatment • Steam Turbine Generator System & Turbine Cooling System – (1) steam turbine and generator & Cooling Tower with cooling tower pumps • Emergency Generator System – (1) back diesel generator • Plant Control System – Master SCADA system which integrates all systems and balance of plant equipment I/O into one control system

For too long the EU’s migration policies have ignored the priorities of the countries it partners with for the sake of its own border security and domestic priorities. These have permeated the domestic migration and asylum policies of the Maghreb countries it supports, including Tunisia and Morocco, in a convergence of national interests of states, at the cost of people’s interests. The EU’s cooperation with its neighbours should encourage a real common interest: protecting people and fulfilling their rights.

On 8 June 2020, the Government of Tanzania officially declared the country to be free of COVID-19 and all restrictions have since been lifted. As of 3 December 2020, Tanzania had only 509 confirmed cases of the virus and 21 deaths. Nevertheless, neighbouring countries are still facing the threat of the pandemic, all of which are key trading partners. Their continuing COVID-19 control measures have disrupted regional and domestic agricultural markets and affected local livelihoods and food systems. This study analysed the resulting impacts in those systems in several rice-producing communities in Morogoro Region, south-western Tanzania.

U.S. policymakers need to understand the landscape of artificial intelligence talent and investment as AI becomes increasingly important to national and economic security. This knowledge is critical as leaders develop new alliances and work to curb China’s growing influence. As an initial effort, an earlier CSET report, “AI Hubs in the United States,” examined the domestic AI ecosystem by mapping where U.S. AI talent is produced, where it is concentrated, and where AI private equity funding goes. Given the global nature of the AI ecosystem and the importance of international talent flows, this paper looks for the centers of AI talent and investment in regions and countries that are key U.S. partners: Europe and the CANZUK countries (Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom).

Across the globe, unpaid care and domestic work (UCDW) sustains communities and economies, provides essential care for children, sick and elderly people and those living with disabilities, and keeps households clean and families fed. Without unpaid care, the global economy as we know it would grind to a halt. Yet this work falls disproportionately on women and girls, limiting their opportunities to participate in decent paid employment, education, leisure and political life. Heavy and unequal UCDW traps women and girls in cycles of poverty and stops them from being part of solutions. To help address this, Oxfam, together with a number of partners, has been working in over 25 countries to deliver the Women’s Economic Empowerment and Care (WE-Care) programme since 2013. WE-Care aims to reignite progress on gender equality by addressing heavy and unequal UCDW. By recognizing, reducing and redistributing UCDW, WE-Care is promoting a just and inclusive society where women and girls have more choice at every stage of their lives, more opportunities to take part in economic, social and political activities, and where carers’ voices are heard in decision making about policies and budgets at all levels. This overview document aims to highlight the approaches taken and lessons learned on unpaid care that Oxfam has implemented in collaboration with partners in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia.

This paper provides an insight on the gender impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Caribbean. The analysis makes use of the April 2020 online COVID-19 survey that the Inter-American Development conducted in all six Caribbean Country Department member countries. We find that the pandemic is having different effects on men and women. For example, job losses have been more prevalent amongst single-females, whilst business closures have been more prevalent amongst single-males. Quality of life also seems to have worsened more for single-females than for single-males and partners (married or common law partnership) and domestic violence against women has been on the rise. Although the coverage of social assistance programs has increased substantially during the pandemic, we find that more targeting of households with single females could be beneficial, particularly as they show lower levels of financial resilience. Going forward, we recommend further gender targeting in social assistance programs and the collection of gender-disaggregated data that will allow for more thorough investigation of the gender effects of these types of shocks.

Efforts to support help-seeking by victims of partner violence in couples affected by incarceration represent a key part of larger efforts in the fields of domestic violence and victim services to improve the accessibility of services in marginalized communities and better meet complex victim needs. Qualitative data from 167 Multi-site Family Study participants suggest that involvement with the criminal justice system (whether directly or through a family member) introduces unique individual, interpersonal, and sociocultural barriers to defining one’s experiences as a problem, deciding to seek help, and selecting sources of help. Opportunities exist not only to tailor service delivery approaches in ways that overcome the individual and interpersonal obstacles that affect victims but also to pursue longer-range shifts in public policy and community infrastructure that will address broader and more-entrenched barriers to help-seeking.

There is growing consensus that political factors are a key determinant of development impact. The practice of Thinking and Working Politically (TWP) is built around three interconnected principles: (i) strong political analysis, insight, and understanding; (ii) detailed appreciation of, and response to, the local context; and (iii) flexibility and adaptability in program design and implementation. The literature notes that while TWP emphasises the centrality of politics and power, technical knowledge is still important and can reinforce the political agenda, for example by increasing the confidence of smaller states or by strengthening collective understanding. Furthermore, improving the quality of domestic cooperation can be a step towards regional cooperation, and flexible engagement with the diverse range of actors that populate transboundary settings has been shown to be an effective strategy. The literature also highlights lessons learned including Transboundary cooperation can be built from the bottom up and for development partners, pre-existing bilateral partnerships may facilitate their engagement at a transboundary level, particularly on sensitive issues. Given the relatively isolated experience of TWP in transboundary settings, the evidence base for this report is also limited. The two areas where most examples were found concern regional integration and transboundary water management.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

For Plant Protection and Quarantine (PPQ) and our partners, 2016 was a year of remarkable successes. Not only did we eradicate 10 fruit fly outbreaks, but we also achieved 4 years with zero detections of pink bollworm, moving us one step closer to eradicating this pest from all commercial cotton-growing areas of the continental United States. And when the U.S. corn industry faced the first-ever detection of bacterial leaf streak (Xanthomonas vasicular pv vasculorum), we devised a practical and scientific approach to manage the disease and protect valuable export markets. Our most significant domestic accomplishment this year, however, was achieving one of our agency’s top 10 goals: eliminating the European grapevine moth (EGVM) from the United States. On the world stage, PPQ helped U.S. agriculture thrive in the global market-place. We worked closely with our international trading partners to develop and promote science-based standards, helping to create a safe, fair, and predictable agricultural trade system that minimizes the spread of invasive plant pests and diseases. We reached critical plant health agreements and resolved plant health barriers to trade, which sustained and expanded U.S. export markets valued at more than $4 billion. And, we helped U.S. producers meet foreign market access requirements and certified the health of more than 650,000 exports, securing economic opportunities for U.S. products abroad. These successes underscore how PPQ is working every day to keep U.S. agriculture healthy and profitable.