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Tesi sul tema "Economic forecasting"

Autore: Grafiati

Pubblicato: 4 giugno 2021

Ultima modifica: 25 luglio 2025

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1

Odendahl, Florens. "Essays in economic forecasting." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/664016.

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This thesis consists of three chapters on forecasting techniques in economics. In chapter 1, I use copulas to estimate multivariate density forecasts based on univariate densities from survey data. Survey-based predictions are often competitive to time series models in their forecasting performance but have a univariate focus and my estimation strategy exploits the information in the surveys’ marginal densities. I subsequently demonstrate the importance of the multivariate aspect for forecasters. In chapter 2, we propose novel tests for forecast rationality, which are robust under the presence

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2

Souza, André B. M. "Essays in economic forecasting." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/672997.

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This dissertation consists of two independent chapters on economic and financial forecasting. The first chapter introduces a nonlinear forecasting framework that combines forecasts of the sign and absolute value of a time series into conditional mean forecasts. In contrast to linear models, the proposed framework allows different predictors to separately impact the sign and absolute value of the target series. An empirical application using the FRED-MD dataset shows that forecasts from the proposed model substantially outperform linear forecasts for series that exhibit persistent volati

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3

Acar, Emmanuel. "Economic evaluation of financial forecasting." Thesis, City University London, 1993. http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/8256/.

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This thesis examines the economic evaluation of forecasting strategies based on past prices, bringing together academics and practitioners techniques Forecasting methods based on past prices are convex and path-dependent dynamic strategies Therefore, they must be able to profitably exploit positive serial dependences in financial prices The most important measure of financial forecasting ability is the rate of return achieved by the predictor The expected return of forecasting strategies is first investigated by applying stochastic modelling Then, the presence of serial dependences in financia

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4

Bezsmertna, Julia. "Modern methods of economic forecasting." Thesis, Київський національний університет технологій та дизайну, 2019. https://er.knutd.edu.ua/handle/123456789/14350.

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5

Sippl-Swezey, Nicolas. "Heterogeneous gain forecasting using historic asset information." Oberlin College Honors Theses / OhioLINK, 2011. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=oberlin1354304083.

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6

Marsilli, Clément. "Mixed-Frequency Modeling and Economic Forecasting." Thesis, Besançon, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014BESA2023/document.

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La prévision macroéconomique à court terme est un exercice aussi complexe qu’essentiel pour la définition de la politique économique et monétaire. Les crises financières récentes ainsi que les récessions qu’ont endurées et qu’endurent aujourd’hui encore, en ce début d’année 2014, nombre de pays parmi les plus riches, témoignent de la difficulté d’anticiper les fluctuations économiques, même à des horizons proches. Les recherches effectuées dans le cadre de la thèse de doctorat qui est présentée dans ce manuscrit se sont attachées à étudier, analyser et développer des modélisations pour la prév

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7

Franklin, Jesse C. "Forecasting the Inland Empire's Economic Recovery." Scholarship @ Claremont, 2010. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/42.

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The Inland Empire -Riverside and San Bernardino Counties - was one of the hardest hit areas in all of the United States during the Great Recession. Home prices have declined over 50%, significantly more than the 25% decline in the surrounding Los Angeles County, and housing starts have declined to over 90% from 2005. The Inland Empire has one of the highest unemployment rates in the US at 14.8%. This paper attempts to forecast the recovery for the Inland Empire. Employing univariate forecasts along with VAR(12) forecasts, focusing on housing starts and unemployment rates as the underlying vari

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8

Thomas, M. C. "Techno-economic forecasting for packaging materials." Thesis, Swansea University, 2001. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.639223.

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Forecasting packaging material demand is crucial to effective future planning by capital intensive material manufacturers. Yet several considerations introduce great uncertainty over the future packaging mix. Foremost is a highly heterogeneous and dynamic end-use marketplace subject to multitudinous technological, economic, consumer and legislative change-forces. These act at all levels upon a diverse and complex supply chain that suffers data paucity and, hence, opacity of cause and effect. A wide range of future-oriented decision technologies was examined to meet these challenges. None promi

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9

Hackworth, J. F. "Forecasting the ownership growth of consumer durables." Thesis, Cranfield University, 1985. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.371830.

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10

Betz, Gregor Tetens Holm. "Prediction or prophecy? the boundaries of economic foreknowledge and their socio-political consequences /." Wiesbaden : Deutscher Universitäts-Verlag, 2006. http://site.ebrary.com/id/10231757.

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11

Bryhn, Andreas. "The Forecasting Power of Economic Growth Models." Thesis, Uppsala University, Department of Economics, 2007. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-8053.

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<p>High forecasting power is essential for understanding scientific relationships. In economics, forecasting power may be decisive for the success or failure of a particular policy. The forecasting power of economic growth models is investigated in this study. Regressions from one dataset including the gross domestic product (GDP), GDP growth, trade openness, the quality of public institutions and secondary education generate insufficient forecasting power with respect to growth. Furthermore, the International Monetary Fund's one-year growth forecasts are compared to outcome. Forecasts for 199

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12

Chevillon, Guillaume. "Multi-step estimation for forecasting economic processes." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2004. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.416533.

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13

Toner, Patrick Thomas. "Load forecasting for economic power system operation." Thesis, Queen's University Belfast, 1992. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.317533.

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14

Shih, Shou Hsing. "Forecasting models for economic and environmental applications." [Tampa, Fla] : University of South Florida, 2008. http://purl.fcla.edu/usf/dc/et/SFE0002425.

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15

Skinner, David. "Forecasting models of activity in industrial and commercial building." Thesis, University of Salford, 1999. http://usir.salford.ac.uk/26916/.

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Despite its importance in national income, the level of activity in the construction sector has received little attention in the economics literature. The lack of studies attempting to forecast construction activity is surprising given that its volatility is often regarded as destabilising to the economy. Here, we model an important and growing component of construction, namely private industrial and commercial building. Construction activity is typically measured by output. To the extent that new construction output represents capital formation, output can be modelled as an investment problem

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16

Giesecke, James Andrew David. "FEDERAL-F : a multi-regional multi-sectoral dynamic model of the Australian economy /." Title page, appendix, contents and abstract only, 2000. http://web4.library.adelaide.edu.au/theses/09PH/09phg4554.pdf.

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17

Valente, Giorgio. "Essays in financial forecasting." Thesis, University of Warwick, 2003. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/4055/.

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Forecasting is central to economic and financial decision-making. Government institutions and agents in the private sector often base their decisions on forecasts of financial and economic variables. Forecasting has therefore been a primary concern for practitioners and financial econometricians alike, and the relevant literature has witnessed a renaissance in recent years. This thesis contributes to this literature by investigating three topical issues related to financial and economic forecasting. The first chapter finds its rationale in the large literature suggesting that standard exchange

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18

Fortune, Christopher Joseph. "Factors affecting the selection of building project price forecasting tools." Thesis, Heriot-Watt University, 1999. http://hdl.handle.net/10399/1271.

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This thesis contributes to what is known about the investigation and formulation phases of the building project price forecasting advice process. The research has developed a greater understanding of what general factors affect the selection of non-traditional types of building project price forecasting models. The thesis adopted a two-phased combined research approach. The first phase required a population mailed survey to be executed with over two thousand three hundred quantity surveying organisations located across England in 1997. The second phase required thirty-one in-depth interviews t

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19

Brooks, Christopher. "Testing for and forecasting nonlinearities in daily sterling exchange rates." Thesis, University of Reading, 1996. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.318624.

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20

Wang, Wei-Hsin. "Comparative analysis of approaches to short-term foreign exchange rates forecasting." Thesis, Imperial College London, 1999. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.313480.

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21

Orr, Allison McLean. "The determination of industrial property rental values : theory, evidence and forecasting." Thesis, University of the West of Scotland, 1996. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.296190.

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22

Yuan, Hang. "Overlapping regression and forecasting : essays on economic cycles." Thesis, Lancaster University, 2012. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.657624.

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This thesis documents research and findings of three essays in the area of prediction and forecast of economic cycles. Each essay in this thesis is dedicated to address one particular aspect of the research. The thesis also contributes to the existing research by providing additional empirical evidence on the predictability of the real economic activity and recessions in the US. The first essay (Chapter 2) focuses on the long horizon inference methods, and examines the predictability of real GDP growth rate in the US using several well known predictors. A battery of specifically designed infer

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23

Mansur, Mohaimen. "Essays on forecasting financial and economic time series." Thesis, Queen Mary, University of London, 2014. http://qmro.qmul.ac.uk/xmlui/handle/123456789/8576.

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This thesis comprises three main chapters focusing on a number of issues related to forecasting economic and nancial time series. Chapter 2 contains a detailed empirical study comparing forecast perfor- mance of a number of popular term structure models in predicting the UK yield curve. Several questions are addressed and investigated, such as whether macroeconomic information helps in forecasting yields and whether predict- ing performance of models change over time. We nd evidence of signi cant time-variation in forecast accuracy of competing models, particularly during the recent nancial cr

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24

Reed, Larry Donnell. "Forecasting economic impacts of the Third Harbor Tunnel." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1989. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/77341.

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25

Mapp, Claudette Melissa. "Forecasting economic impacts of the Boston Harbor cleanup." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1989. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/76018.

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Thesis (M.C.P.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning, 1989.<br>Title as it appeared in M.I.T. Graduate List, June 1989: Forecasting economic benefits of the Boston Harbor cleanup.<br>Includes bibliographical references (leaves 97-98).<br>by Claudette Melissa Mapp.<br>M.C.P.

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26

Furman, Yoel Avraham. "Forecasting with large datasets." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2014. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:69f2833b-cc53-457a-8426-37c06df85bc2.

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This thesis analyzes estimation methods and testing procedures for handling large data series. The first chapter introduces the use of the adaptive elastic net, and the penalized regression methods nested within it, for estimating sparse vector autoregressions. That chapter shows that under suitable conditions on the data generating process this estimation method satisfies an oracle property. Furthermore, it is shown that the bootstrap can be used to accurately conduct inference on the estimated parameters. These properties are used to show that structural VAR analysis can also be validly cond

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27

Spagnolo, Nicola. "Nonlinearity testing, model selection and forecasting in the prescence of Markov regime switching." Thesis, Birkbeck (University of London), 2001. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.368914.

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28

Jeon, Yongil. "Four essays on forecasting evaluation and econometric estimation /." Diss., Connect to a 24 p. preview or request complete full text in PDF format. Access restricted to UC campuses, 1999. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/ucsd/fullcit?p9949690.

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29

Banavas, Georgios Nikolaos. "Prognosis : historical pattern matching for economic forecasting and trading." Thesis, University of Plymouth, 2000. http://hdl.handle.net/10026.1/1642.

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In recent years financial markets have become complex environments that continuously change and they change quickly. The strong link between the continuous change in the markets and the danger of losing money when trading in them, has made financial studies a domain that concentrates increasing scientific and business attention. In this context, the development of computational techniques that can monitor recent financial events can process them according to their similarity with historical data recordings, and can support financial decision making, is a challenging problem. In this work, the

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30

VASCONCELOS, GABRIEL FILIPE RODRIGUES. "FORECASTING IN HIGH-DIMENSION: INFLATION AND OTHER ECONOMIC VARIABLES." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2018. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=35237@1.

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PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO<br>COORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DO PESSOAL DE ENSINO SUPERIOR<br>CONSELHO NACIONAL DE DESENVOLVIMENTO CIENTÍFICO E TECNOLÓGICO<br>PROGRAMA DE EXCELENCIA ACADEMICA<br>Esta tese é composta de quatro artigos e um pacote de R. Todos os artigos têm como foco previsão de variáveis econômicas em alta dimensão. O primeiro artigo mostra que modelos LASSO são muito precisos para prever a inflação brasileira em horizontes curtos de previsão. O segundo artigo utiliza vários métodos de Machine Learning para prever um grupo de variáveis macroeconomicas am

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31

Liu, Guangling. "Forecasting with DSGE models the case of South Africa /." Pretoria : [s.n.], 2007. http://upetd.up.ac.za/thesis/available/etd-06102008-094841/.

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32

Lazim, Mohamad Alias. "Econometric forecasting models and model evaluation : a case study of air passenger traffic flow." Thesis, Lancaster University, 1995. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.296880.

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33

Dam, Robert A. "Economic limits to corporate growth in America." Thesis, Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/2514.

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This work explores the relationship between corporate and economic growth within the United States since 1929. The corporate share of GDP climbed from 52.5 percent in 1929 to 59.7 percent in 2005. Depending upon the years included and the method of estimating respective growth rates, this increasing share of GDP accounts for up to 14 percent of real domestic corporate growth. However, the domestic corporate share of GDP can never exceed 100 percent. Subject to numerous assumptions, the models presented here estimate that this source of corporate growth could be exhausted as early as the y

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34

Marriott, Richard Keyworth. "Estimating and forecasting a demand chain for food using cross-section and time-series data." Thesis, University of Bristol, 1998. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.266903.

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35

Julia, Draeb. "Reexamining the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: an Out-of-Sample Forecasting Perspective." Miami University / OhioLINK, 2021. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=miami1623251442890825.

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36

Harrington, Robert P. "Forecasting corporate performance." Diss., Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1985. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/54515.

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For the past twenty years, the usefulness of accounting information has been emphasized. In 1966 the American Accounting Association in its State of Basic Accounting Theory asserted that usefulness is the primary purpose of external financial reports. In 1978 the State of Financial Accounting Concepts, No. 1 affirmed the usefulness criterion. "Financial reporting should provide information that is useful to present and potential investors and creditors and other users..." Information is useful if it facilitates decision making. Moreover, all decisions are future-oriented; they are based on a

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37

Васильєва, Тетяна Анатоліївна, Татьяна Анатольевна Васильева, Tetiana Anatoliivna Vasylieva, et al. "The economic impact of COVID-19: forecasting for ukrainian regions." Thesis, Sumy State University, 2020. https://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/80904.

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The world scientific community has developed many economic and mathematical models for predicting and analysing the multidirectional impact of COVID-19 on various aspects of society. Modelling the economic consequences of a new dangerous virus for different countries has a vital role today. There is a lack of such research in Ukraine. Foreign papers, particularly from the highly-rated databases Scopus and Web of Science, show an increase in research on this topic and their citations. It is appropriate to mention specific quotes from the report of the consulting company One Philosophy Insights,

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38

Васильєва, Тетяна Анатоліївна, Татьяна Анатольевна Васильева, Tetiana Anatoliivna Vasylieva, et al. "The economic impact of covid-19: forecasting for Ukrainian regions." Thesis, Sumy State University, 2020. https://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/80956.

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У тезах наведені економічні показники в Україні, що показують прямий вплив пандемії COVID-19 на соціально-економічне становище ряду вітчизняних галузей та регіонів. Обгрунтована доцільність використання економіко-математичних моделей для прогнозування розвитку подій під час такого роду епідемій.<br>В тезисах приведены экономические показатели в Украине, которые показывают прямое влияние пандемии COVID-19 на социально-экономическое положение ряда отечественных отраслей и регионов. Обоснована целесообразность использования экономико-математических моделей для прогнозирования развития событий во

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39

Boshoff, Willem Hendrik. "The properties of cycles in South African financial variables and their relation to the business cycle." Thesis, Stellenbosch : University of Stellenbosch, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/1733.

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Thesis (MComm (Economics)--University of Stellenbosch, 2006.<br>The goal of this thesis is twofold: it aims, firstly, at a description of cycles in South African financial variables and, secondly, at the evaluation of the relationship between cycles in financial variables and the South African business cycle. The study is based on the original business cycle framework of Arthur Burns and Wesley Mitchell, but incorporates recent contributions by Australian economists Don Harding and Adrian Pagan, as well as the work of the Economic Cycle Research Institute in New York. Part I of the thes

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40

Yang, Yibai. "Economic growth under endogenous technological change and time preference : empirical evidence from selected OECD countries." Thesis, The University of Sydney, 2012. https://hdl.handle.net/2123/28824.

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Technological change and time preference are two important factors affecting the mechanics of the process of economic growth, and the endogeneity of these factors receives increasing attention in recent studies. This thesis provides analyses of the roles of endogenous technological change and endogenous time preference in the growth process, With particular interests in long—run growth7 the organization and direction of innovation, equilibrium dynamics, and improvements of household welfare. The thesis consists of the following chapters. Chapter 1 introduces the research. Chapter 2 reviews

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41

Moore, Ronald K. (Ronald Kenneth). "Prediction of Bankruptcy Using Financial Ratios, Information Measures, National Economic Data and Texas Economic Data." Thesis, North Texas State University, 1987. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc331133/.

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The main purpose of this study is to develop a bankruptcy prediction model for the small business firm. Data was collected from the Dallas Small Business Administration (SBA), making this study specific to its decision makers. Existing research has produced models which predominately use financial ratios and information measures either independently or combined, and a few research models have used economic trends. This study varies from past studies in that it includes regional economic variables from the states of Texas. A sample of three-year data for 138 firms included fifteen bankrupt fir

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42

Chen, Yuang-Sung Al. "Financial analyst forecast dispersion : determinants and usefulness as an ex-ante measure of risk." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 1988. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/29391.

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43

Liu, Yu. "Essays on analyst growth forecasts and stock market valuations /." View abstract or full-text, 2008. http://library.ust.hk/cgi/db/thesis.pl?ACCT%202008%20LIU.

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44

Betz, Gregor. "Prediction or prophecy? : the boundaries of economic foreknowledge and their socio-political consequences /." Wiesbaden : Dt. Univ.-Verl, 2006. http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&doc_number=014606920&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA.

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45

Giyose, Dorrington. "Possible scenarios for Africa's economic futures towards 2055." Thesis, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10948/d1021188.

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This academic discourse is a research treatise that is submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the Masters in Business Administration (MBA) degree at the Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University (NMMU). Purpose – The purpose of this treatise is to develop four possible scenarios for Africa’s economic futures over the next 40 years, i.e. towards 2055. This study will expose the possible, probable, plausible, and preferable (desirable) scenarios for Africa towards 2055. Design/Methodology/Approach – This study employs a Futures Studies methodology that is known as scenario planning. The ke

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46

Fan, Yat-chau, and 范一舟. "Modelling and forecasting Hong Kong construction demands." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2010. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B45547269.

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47

Kang, Sungjun. "Forecasting inflation with probit and regression models /." free to MU campus, to others for purchase, 1999. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/mo/fullcit?p9946268.

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48

Liebermann, Joëlle. "Essays in real-time forecasting." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/209644.

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This thesis contains three essays in the field of real-time econometrics, and more particularly<p>forecasting.<p>The issue of using data as available in real-time to forecasters, policymakers or financial<p>markets is an important one which has only recently been taken on board in the empirical<p>literature. Data available and used in real-time are preliminary and differ from ex-post<p>revised data, and given that data revisions may be quite substantial, the use of latest<p>available instead of real-time can substantially affect empirical findings (see, among others,<p>Croushore’s (2011) surve

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49

Al-Teraiki, Ahmed B. M. "A macroeconometric model of Saudi Arabia for economic stabilisation and forecasting." Thesis, Loughborough University, 1999. https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/7286.

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The purpose of this study is to construct a macroeconometric model for the Saudi Arabian economy in order to assess the effects of external shocks through such variables as the price of (oil) exports, real (oil) exports, and the price of imports. This model follows the methodology of the aggregate demand and supply. Due to the absence of interest rates, the formulation of the aggregate demand, following the monetary approach to the income determination, is done by combining the equations from the monetary sector in addition to the government and foreign sectors of the economy. The aggregate su

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50

Fuentes, Antonio. "An Analysis of Sensitivity in Economic Forecasting for Pavement Management Systems." DigitalCommons@USU, 2015. https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/etd/4279.

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The research presented in this thesis investigates the effect the data collection process has on the results of the economic analysis in pavement management systems. The incorporation of pavement management systems into software packages has enabled local governments to easily implement and maintain an asset management plan. However a general standard has yet to be set, enabling local governments to select from several methods of data collection. In this research, two pavement management system software packages with different data collection methods are analyzed on the common estimated recomm

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