Letteratura scientifica selezionata sul tema "Export premium"

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics<br>In spite of the success in the Portuguese market, its small dimension and its proximity to maturity, led Água das Pedras to internationalize its strategy and grow overseas. After the internationalization to Brazil, one considered China as a highly potential market for Pedras to succeed in, mainly due to its size and untapped demand. Hence, this report presents the competitive assessment of Pedras in the Portuguese market followed by a macro-environmental study of China as well as a detailed industry analysis. As the competitors’ analysis evidenced the potential of Pedras, an implementation plan is proposed through an Indirect Export Strategy.

We set up a trade model with heterogeneous firms and a worker population that is heterogeneous in two dimensions: workers are either skilled or unskilled, and within each skill category there is a continuum of abilities. Workers with high abilities, both skilled and unskilled, are matched to firms with high productivities, and this leads to wage differentials within each skill category across firms. Self-selection of the most productive firms into exporting generates an exporter wage premium, and our framework with skilled and unskilled workers allows us to decompose this premium into its skill-specific components. We employ linked employer-employee data from Germany to structurally estimate the parameters of the model. Using these parameter estimates, we compute an average exporter wage premium of 5 percent. The decomposition by skill turns out to be quantitatively highly relevant, with exporting firms paying no wage premium at all to their unskilled workers, while the premium for skilled workers is 12 percent.

Este trabalho buscou entender o prêmio de exportação da soja em grão no porto de Paranaguá, seu mecanismo de formação, padrão sazonal, as principais variáveis responsáveis pelas oscilações diárias e mensais, bem como determinar qual contrato futuro da bolsa de Chicago e prêmio (preços FOB) estão mais relacionados com os preços internos. Para tanto, foram levantadas através da literatura e entrevistas as variáveis potencialmente significativas para explicar as variações do prêmio de exportação da soja em grão. Adicionalmente foram calculadas séries de preços FOB, que foram posteriormente relacionadas com os preços da soja no mercado interno. Através de testes de causalidade foram definidas as principais variáveis explicativas do prêmio. Estas variáveis foram relacionadas ao prêmio através de regressões lineares, utilizando-se dados diários e mensais. O mesmo procedimento foi utilizado para definir a série de preço de exportação mais relacionada com o preço doméstico da soja. Para cada série foi realizado o teste de raiz unitária, objetivando-se verificar a estacionariedade das séries. As variáveis que apresentaram relação causal com o prêmio da soja em grão são: o prêmio do grão defasado, o prêmio do óleo, o prêmio do farelo e o percentual exportado através do porto de Paranaguá para a Europa e Ásia. Estas variáveis apresentaram-se positivamente relacionadas com o prêmio, isto é, uma elevação nas variáveis explicativas tende a elevar a variável dependente (prêmio do grão). Por outro lado, o preço interno do farelo, chuva no porto, estoques no Brasil, na Argentina e nos Estados Unidos são negativamente relacionados ao prêmio, isto é, a elevação dessas variáveis tende a reduzir o prêmio. Os fretes internacionais, tendo como proxy o preço internacional do petróleo, a taxa de câmbio e as cotações da bolsa de Chicago não apresentaram relação causal com o prêmio de exportação da soja em grão. Os resultados mostram também que a relação entre as séries de preços de exportação (FOB) e o preço interno da soja é unicausal, com sentido do preço de exportação para o preço interno. Os preços FOB referenciados nos contratos para o primeiro vencimento da bolsa de Chicago apresentaram a maior elasticidade de transmissão de preços, sendo estes os preços de exportação mais bem relacionados com o preço interno da soja.<br>This research analyzed the formation process of the Brazilian soybeans export premiums at Paranaguá port, Paraná, including its seasonal behavior and effects of the main related variables. This study determined which future contract in the Chicago Board of Trade and export premium (which results in the price received by exporters - Free on Board Price) is closest to domestic prices. The analysis was accomplished with daily data from 1996 to 2002 and monthly data from 1993 to 2002. Variables potentially relevant were raised through literature review and interviews with exporters, importers and brokers. The effects of these variables were submitted to causality tests, being related to export premiums through linear regression models, using daily and monthly data. The same procedure was used to determine the FOB price most related to internal ones. In order to verify whether the variables are stationary, the series were submitted to Unit Root Tests. The variables that presented causal relationship with the export premium are: soybeans premiums lags, soy-oil premiums, soy-meal premiums and the percentage of exports to Europe and Asia through Paranaguá Port. These variables are positively related to the soybeans premiums, that is, an increase in these independent variables led the premium to rise. Soy-meal domestic price, rain intensity in Paranaguá port, inventories in Brazil, Argentina and United States are all negatively related to the soybeans premiums. On the other hand, international petroleum prices (as a proxy to international freights), exchange rate and CBOT prices did not present causal relationships with soybeans premiums. Results show that export (FOB) prices cause domestics prices. FOB prices referred to first contracts at CBOT showed the largest elasticity of price transmission and, therefore, the strongest relationship with soybeans Brazilian prices.

Subsidising investment in lagging regions is an important regional policy instrument in many countries. Some argue that this instrument is not specific enough to concentrate the aid towards the regions that are lagging behind most, because investment subsidies benefit capital owners who might reside elsewhere, possibly in very rich places. Checking under which conditions this is true is thus highly policy relevant. The present paper studies regional investment subsidies in a multiregional neoclassical dynamic framework. We set up a model with trade in heterogeneous goods, with a perfectly integrated financial capital market and sluggish adjustment of regional capital stocks. Consumers and investors act under perfect foresight. We derive the equilibrium system, show how to solve it, and simulate actual European regional subsidies in computational applications. We find that the size of the welfare gains depends on the portfolio distribution held by the households. If households own diversified asset portfolios, we find that the supported regions gain roughly the amounts that are allocated to them in the form of investment subsidies. If they only own local capital stocks, a part of the money is lost through the drop in share prices. From the point of view of total welfare, the subsidy is not efficient. It can lead to a welfare loss for the EU as a whole and definitely leads to welfare losses in the rest of the world, from where investment ows to the supported EU regions.

Dans le système de la pompe biologique océanique, l'incorporation et la séquestration du carbone d'origine atmosphérique dans les sédiments marins résultent de la fixation en surface de ce carbone, suivie de son transit dans la colonne d'eau sous forme de particules carbonées. Dans la zone euphotique (0-200m), la photosynthèse par le phytoplancton joue le rôle primordial de fixateur du carbone atmosphérique dans des particules organiques consommées ensuite par les autres organismes marins hétérotrophes. La matière organique particulaire produite directement à partir du phytoplancton (comme les agrégats) ou indirectement par les organismes (par exemple les pelotes fécales) représentent le principal vecteur d'export du carbone vers l'océan profond. Dans ce contexte, l'efficacité de la pompe biologique est alors fonction de la vitesse de sédimentation des particules et finalement seules les particules dont la taille et la masse sont suffisantes parviennent jusqu'au sédiment. Ces considérations ont ainsi permis d'établir que les particules d'une taille &gt; 500µm connues dans la littérature scientifique sous le terme de "neige marine" contribuaient significativement à l'export en profondeur. Au cours de l'expédition TARA, l'utilisation du Profileur de Vision Marine (PVM) nous a permis d'établir la distribution en taille du compartiment particulaire (&gt; 100µm) depuis la surface jusqu'à 1500m de profondeur dans plus de 150 stations échantillonnées dans les océans majeurs. A l'aide de cette base de données, couplée aux données environnementales (physiques et biogéochimiques), nous avons cherché à évaluer l'intensité du flux particulaire (dérivé de la distribution en taille des particules) et à déterminer les processus biotiques et abiotiques modulant cet export. Dans la première partie de ce travail, une classification réalisée à partir des profils verticaux de flux a permis de mettre en évidence l'importance de la production de surface et la contribution des différentes communautés de phytoplancton (micro-, nano- et pico-phytoplancton) à l'établissement du flux particulaire sous la couche de surface, mais aussi le rôle des processus de transformation dans différentes régions océaniques dans l'atténuation du flux en profondeur. En dehors des régions à dominante oligotrophe où la quantité de matériel particulaire en surface reste extrêmement faible, nous avons constaté que l'atténuation du flux la plus faible correspondait aux "Zones à Minimum d'Oxygène" (OMZ). La deuxième partie de ce travail de thèse s'articule donc autour de l'étude des OMZ afin de comprendre les processus impliqués dans la dynamique du transfert vertical des particules. Sur la base de mesures biogéochimiques réalisées à partir de l'ensemble des capteurs (optique et imagerie), nous avons pu observer que les faibles valeurs d'atténuation de flux (k = 0,35 +/- 0,26) dans l'OMZ étaient en fait le résultat d'une réaugmentation profonde de 5 à 15% de celui-ci. Nous discutons cette réaugmentation comme étant une conséquence de l'activité des communautés mésopélagiques de zooplancton vivant sous la couche suboxique des OMZ (oxycline inférieure) tout en proposant aussi un rôle potentiel des microorganismes anaérobiques sur la dégradation et la modification de la matière organique particulaire en sédimentation dans le coeur de l'OMZ. Enfin, la dernière partie de ce travail se focalise sur la plus intense OMZ, celle de la Mer d'Arabie (Océan Indien). A l'aide d'un modèle de transport Lagrangien, nous avons évalué la possibilité d'un transport particulaire advectif depuis la côte (Golfe Persique) vers le large qui aurait pu contribuer à alimenter en matière organique la couche suboxique de l'OMZ<br>In the biological pump system, incorporation and sequestration of atmospheric carbon into marine sediment result of carbon fixation at ocean surface, followed by its sinking through the water column in the form of particulate carbon. In the euphotic zone (0-200m), phytoplankton photosynthesis allows carbon fixation into organic particles that are consumed by other heterotrophic organisms. Particulate organic carbon produced directly by phytoplankton (as aggregated particles) or indirectly by organisms (for example as faecal pellets) represent the main vector of carbon export to deep ocean. In this context, efficiency of the biological pump is a function of the settling speed of a particle and only those particles with sufficient mass and size reach the sediment. These considerations permit us to conclude that particles with a diameter greater than 500µm, known as "marine snow", contribute significantly to deep export. During the TARA expedition, the use of a UVP (Underwater Vision Profiler) allowed to establish the size distribution of particles (&gt; 100µm) from the ocean surface to 1500m depth, with more than 150 sampling stations across 3 major oceans. With this database completed by environmental variables, we tried to evaluate intensity of particulate flux and identify biotic and abiotic processes influencing this export. In the first part of this work, a clustering based on flux profiles showed the importance of surface production and contribution of each phytoplanktonic community (pico-, nano- and microphytoplankton) to particulate flux under surface, but also the role of transformation processes in different oceanic regions to flux attenuation. Except in oligotrophic regions where surface particulate stock is very low, we observed that the weakest flux attenuation k = 0,35 +/- 0,26) corresponded to the "Oxygen Minimum Zones" (OMZ). The second part of this work is related to OMZ in order to understand which processes are involved in the dynamics of particulate vertical transfer. On the base of biogeochemical measurements taken by optical and image sensors, we could observe that weak attenuation values in OMZ were in fact the result of a deep increase of 5 to 15% of flux. We discuss this increase as a consequence of zooplankton mesopelagic communities activity living at the lower oxycline of the suboxic layer, but we also proposed a potential influence of anaerobic microorganisms on degradation and modification of the settling organic matter in the suboxic core. The last section of this work focuses on the most intense OMZ, located in the Arabian Sea (Indian Ocean). We used a Lagrangian particle model to evaluate the possibility of advective particulate transport from coastal area (Persian Gulf) to the open ocean, which could supply the OMZ suboxic layer with organic

Présentation d'un système d'inférence réalisant la complétion de théories équationnelles dans une structure générale. Il est montré que ce système peut être appliqué aux termes et aux polynômes et permet d'y définir une famille d'algorithmes de complétion du type de ceux de Kmith-Bendix et Buchberger. Ce système a été implémenté en CAML. La seconde partie traite la généralisation de termes et de formules logiques. Deux systèmes d'inférence sont proposés. Enfin, une méthode de généralisation de formules du calcul des prédicats du premier ordre, basée sur le formalisme polynomial en logique, est introduite

Dans cette thèse, nous étudions une nouvelle méthode de vérification des systèmes temps-réels paramétriques. Cette méthode est basée sur une logique du premier ordre temporisée (FaTE) récemment définie par D. Beauquier et À. Slissenko. Cette méthode suit "l'approche logique" : l'environnement et les requis sont décrit par des formules FOTL et le système est décrit comme une Machine à Etats Abstraits de Gurevich puis traduit en une formule FOLL. Vérifier une propriété d'un système revient donc à décider la validité d'un formule. L'avantage principal de cette méthode est sa capacité à synthétiser auromariquement les conditions exigées de l'environnement. Nous avons implanté cette méthode avec plusieurs améliorations et l'avons appliquée avec succès à deux études de cas : le problème du passage à niveau : généralisé et le "IEEE 1394 root contention protocol"<br>In this thesis :e investigate a nex method for verifying paramecric real-cime syste:rs. This cethod is based on a First Order Timed Logic (FOTL) recently d by D. Eoauqu and A. Iissenko. This mechoci folloxs the "logic approach" : the environnent and the renuirements are described as formulas of FOTL and the syster xhich is first described as a Gurevich Abstract State Machine is then tronclataci into a formula of FOTL. Verifying some property of e real-time system is thus reduced to decide the validity of a formula. The main advantage of this method over others is its abilitv to automatically synthesize the conditions required on the environnent. Ne have implemented this rcethod torether xith several improvements and applied it wi͏̈th success to tvo classical benchmarks the generalized railroad crossing problem and the IEEE 1394 root contention protocol

Submitted by Adriano Faria (afaria@fgvmail.br) on 2017-12-13T19:49:29Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_deFaria.pdf: 3657553 bytes, checksum: 11ec67914c866ca46d83c67c1592e093 (MD5)<br>Approved for entry into archive by GILSON ROCHA MIRANDA (gilson.miranda@fgv.br) on 2017-12-21T11:41:13Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_deFaria.pdf: 3657553 bytes, checksum: 11ec67914c866ca46d83c67c1592e093 (MD5)<br>Made available in DSpace on 2017-12-27T12:18:22Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_deFaria.pdf: 3657553 bytes, checksum: 11ec67914c866ca46d83c67c1592e093 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-03-16<br>This thesis is a collection of essays in empirical finance mainly focused on term structure models. In the first three chapters, we developed methods to extract the yield curve from government and corporate bonds. We measure the performance of such methods in pricing, Value at Risk and forecasting exercises. In its turn, the last chapter brings a discussion about the effects of different metrics of the optimal portfolio on the estimation of a CCAPM model.In the first chapter, we propose a segmented model to deal with the seasonalities appearing in real yield curves. In different markets, the short end of the real yield curve is influenced by seasonalities of the price index that imply a lack of smoothness in this segment. Borrowing from the flexibility of spline models, a B-spline function is used to fit the short end of the yield curve, while the medium and the long end are captured by a parsimonious parametric four-factor exponential model. We illustrate the benefits of the proposed term structure model by estimating real yield curves in one of the biggest government index-linked bond markets in the world. Our model is simultaneously able to fit the yield curve and to provide unbiased Value at Risk estimates for different portfolios of bonds negotiated in this market.Chapter 2 introduces a novel framework for the estimation of corporate bond spreads based on mixture models. The modeling methodology allows us to enhance the informational content used to estimate the firm level term structure by clustering firms together using observable firm characteristics. Our model builds on the previous literature linking firm level characteristics to credit spreads. Specifically, we show that by clustering firms using their observable variables, instead of the traditional matrix pricing (cluster by rating/sector), it is possible to achieve gains of several orders of magnitude in terms of bond pricing. Empirically, we construct a large panel of firm level explanatory variables based on results from a handful of previous research and evaluate their performance in explaining credit spread differences. Relying on panel data regressions we identify the most significant factors driving the credit spreads to include in our term structure model. Using this selected sample, we show that our methodology significantly improves in sample fitting as well as produces reliable out of sample price estimations when compared to the traditional models.Chapter 3 brings the paper “Forecasting the Brazilian Term Structure Using Macroeconomic Factors”, published in Brazilian Review of Econometrics (BRE). This paper studies the forecasting of the Brazilian interest rate term structure using common factors from a wide database of macroeconomic series, from the period of January 2000 to May 2012. Firstly the model proposed by Moench (2008) is implemented, in which the dynamic of the short term interest rate is modeled using a Factor Augmented VAR and the term structure is derived using the restrictions implied by no-arbitrage. Similarly to the original study, this model resulted in better predictive performance when compared to the usual benchmarks, but presented deterioration of the results with increased maturity. To avoid this problem, we proposed that the dynamic of each rate be modeled in conjunction with the macroeconomic factors, thus eliminating the no-arbitrage restrictions. This attempt produced superior forecasting results. Finally, the macro factors were inserted in a parsimonious parametric three-factor exponential model.The last chapter presents the paper “Empirical Selection of Optimal Portfolios and its Influence in the Estimation of Kreps-Porteus Utility Function Parameters”, also published in BRE. This paper investigates the effects on the estimation of parameters related to the elasticity of intertemporal substitution and risk aversion, of the selection of different portfolios to represent the optimal aggregate wealth endogenously derived in equilibrium models with Kreps-Porteus recursive utility. We argue that the usual stock market wide index is not a good portfolio to represent optimal wealth of the representative agent, and we propose as an alternative the portfolio from the Investment Fund Industry. Especially for Brazil, where that industry invests most of its resources in fixed income, the aforementioned substitution of the optimal proxy portfolio caused a significant increase in the risk aversion coefficient and the elasticity of the intertemporal substitution in consumption.

La modélisation formelle des politiques de sécurité, contrôlant l'accès aux informations sensibles, est un problème important dans de nombreux domaines. Nous avons proposé un système de contrôle d'accès appelé OrBAC (Organization based access control). Ce système apporte de nombreuses solutions aux systèmes de contrôle d'accès existants, comme la prise en compte du contexte ou encore la possibilité de représenter les différentes formes de privilèges : permission, interdiction et obligation. Cependant, ce système ne permet pas de résoudre les conflits dus aux traitements simultanés des permissions ou obligations et des interdictions. Nous avons traité ce problème dans le système OrBAC, modélisé formellement par une base de connaissances de la logique du premier ordre. Nous avons montré que les approches de gestion des incohérences proposées pour les bases propositionnelles ne sont pas appropriées dans le cas de bases du premier ordre. Nous avons proposé une solution basée sur l'affaiblissement des formules du premier ordre responsables du conflit<br>Modelling information security policies is being an important task in many domains. We proposed a new access control system called OrBAC (Organization based access control). This system brings many solutions to the existing access control systems. For instance, OrBAC takes into account the context and is able to represent various kinds of privileges : permission, prohibition and obligation. However, this system does not deal with conflicts due to the joint handling of permission or obligation and prohibition policies. We dealt with the problem of handling conflicts in the OrBAC system, modelled by first order logic knowledge bases. We showed that approaches suggested for handling conflicts in propositionnal knowledge bases are not adapted for inconsistent first order knowledge bases. We proposed an approach in which we weak first order formulas responsible of conflicts