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Articoli di riviste sul tema "Reservoir inflows"

1

Viterbo, Francesca, Laura Read, Kenneth Nowak, Andrew W. Wood, David Gochis, Robert Cifelli e Mimi Hughes. "General Assessment of the Operational Utility of National Water Model Reservoir Inflows for the Bureau of Reclamation Facilities". Water 12, n. 10 (16 ottobre 2020): 2897. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w12102897.

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This work investigates the utility of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Water Model (NWM) for water management operations by assessing the total inflow into a select number of reservoirs across the Central and Western U.S. Total inflow is generally an unmeasured quantity, though critically important for anticipating both floods and shortages in supply over a short-term (hourly) to sub-seasonal (monthly) time horizon. The NWM offers such information at over 5000 reservoirs across the U.S., however, its skill at representing inflow processes is largely unknown. The goal of this work is to understand the drivers for both well performing and poor performing NWM inflows such that managers can get a sense of the capability of NWM to capture natural hydrologic processes and in some cases, the effects of upstream management. We analyzed the inflows for a subset of Bureau of Reclamation (BoR) reservoirs within the NWM over the long-term simulations (retrospectively, seven years) and for short, medium and long-range operational forecast cycles over a one-year period. We utilize ancillary reservoir characteristics (e.g., physical and operational) to explain variation in inflow performance across the selected reservoirs. In general, we find that NWM inflows in snow-driven basins outperform those in rain-driven, and that assimilated basin area, upstream management, and calibrated basin area all influence the NWM’s ability to reproduce daily reservoir inflows. The final outcome of this work proposes a framework for how the NWM reservoir inflows can be useful for reservoir management, linking reservoir purposes with the forecast cycles and retrospective simulations.
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Bennis, Saad, e Narut Kang. "Multivariate Technique for Validating Historical Hydrometric Data with Redundant Measurements". Hydrology Research 31, n. 2 (1 aprile 2000): 107–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/nh.2000.0008.

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The aim of this research was to develop an automated methodology for validating chronological series of natural inflows to reservoirs. Theoretically, gauges located on the same reservoir should indicate the same reading. However, under the influence of meteorological and hydraulic factors, or simply because of failed measuring equipment, there may be large deviations between the various measurements. Since the calculation of historical natural inflows is directly linked to the measurement of reservoir level by the water balance equation, there will be as many series of natural inflows as there are of reservoir levels. A multivariate filtering technique is used to validate the historical natural inflow computed by each water level variation. The multi filter methodology has the advantage of balancing the water volume of natural inflows to the reservoir when applied over a relatively long period of time. As a result, the validated flood peaks are not systematically overestimated or underestimated and the validated natural inflows are nearly identical for all the gauges. The proposed technique has been incorporated into a software program called ValiDeb, which has been successfully tested on-site on the Gatineau River in Quebec.
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Pieters, Roger, e Gregory A. Lawrence. "Plunging inflows and the summer photic zone in reservoirs". Water Quality Research Journal 47, n. 3-4 (1 agosto 2012): 268–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wqrjc.2012.143.

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Kinbasket and Revelstoke Reservoirs are part of the Columbia River system in eastern British Columbia, Canada. Hydroelectricity from these large reservoirs represents about 30% of the province's generation capacity. Of interest to water use planning is the effect of reservoir operation on pelagic productivity. We address one small part of this question, namely, the supply of nutrients carried by inflows that plunge below the photic zone during the summer. Using an idealized water balance for the photic zone, three cases are considered: (1) a shallow outlet, (2) a deep outlet, and (3) no outflow. For a shallow outlet, all inflow that plunges below the photic zone is upwelled into the photic zone on its way to the outlet. For a deep outlet, inflow that plunges below the photic zone will short circuit or pass directly to the outlet unless entrainment generates upwelling of the inflow into the photic zone. For a reservoir with no outflow, such as a reservoir that is filling, inflow that plunges below the photic zone remains at depth unless either entrainment or a bathymetric effect generates flow into the photic zone; nutrients are then released when the reservoir is drawn down, often in winter.
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Sutlovic, Elis, Snjezana Cujic-Coko e Ivan Medic. "Characteristics of basin inflows a statistical analysis for long-term/mid-term hydrothermal scheduling". Thermal Science 18, n. 3 (2014): 799–809. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/tsci1403799s.

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The presented paper focuses on the characteristics of reservoir inflows and the appropriate inflow model for long-term/mid-term hydrothermal scheduling. The goal was to find the type of distribution that best fits the observed series of monthly and weekly average inflows in most cases for a model which considers the inflows as independent random variables without time correlation. Also, the objective was to explore the correlation between the inflows during time periods (for weekly and monthly intervals, respectively), and to investigate whether the more complex model of reservoir inflow as a dependent random variable is advisable for optimal long-term/mid-term hydrothermal scheduling. Differences in the characteristics of monthly and weekly inflows, which have been noticed during the analysis, are discussed. Numerical results are presented.
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Sriworamas, Krit, Anongrit Kangrang, Teerawat Thongwan e Haris Prasanchum. "Optimal Reservoir of Small Reservoirs by Optimization Techniques on Reservoir Simulation Model". Advances in Civil Engineering 2021 (15 giugno 2021): 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/6625743.

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Reservoir rule curves are essential rules for store activity. This investigation connected the Genetic Algorithm, Firefly Algorithm, Bat Algorithm, Flower Pollination Algorithm, and Tabu Search Algorithm associated with the store reproduction model to look through the ideal supply standard bends, utilizing the Huay Ling Jone and Huay Sabag supplies situated in Yasothorn Province, Thailand, as the contextual investigation. Memorable inflow information of the two repositories were utilized in this investigation, and 1,000 examples of engineered inflows of stores were utilized to recreate the repository activity framework for assessing the acquired principle bends as displayed as far as water circumstances. Circumstances of water lack and abundance water appeared as far as the recurrence extent and length. The outcomes demonstrated that GA, FA, BA, FPA, and TS associated with the reservoir simulation model could give the ideal principle bends which better moderate the drought and flood circumstances contrasted and current guideline bends.
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Uang-Aree, Prawit, e Sununtha Kingpaiboon. "Possibility of GPS precipitable water vapour for reservoir inflow forecasting". Journal of Water and Land Development 36, n. 1 (1 marzo 2018): 161–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/jwld-2018-0016.

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AbstractWe investigated the possibility of using GPS precipitable water vapour (GPS-PWV) for forecasting reservoir inflow. The correlations between monthly GPS-PWV and the inflow of two reservoirs were examined and the relationship tested, using a group method of data handling (GMDH) type neural network algorithm. The daily and monthly reservoir inflows were directly proportional to daily and monthly GPS-PWV trends. Peak reservoir inflow, however, shifted from the peak averages for GPS-PWV. A strong relationship between GPS-PWV and inflow was confirmed by high R2 values, high coefficients of correlation, and acceptable mean absolute errors (MAE) of both the daily and monthly models. The Ubon Ratana reservoir model had a monthly MAE of 54.19·106 m3 and a daily MAE of 5.40·106 m3. By comparison, the Lumpow reservoir model had a monthly MAE of 25.65·106 m3 and a daily MAE of 2.62·106 m3. The models using GPS-PWV as input data responded to extreme inflow better than traditional variables such that reservoir inflow could be predicted using GPS-PWV without using actual inflow and rainfall data. GPS-PWV, thus, represents a helpful tool for regional and national water management. Further research including more reservoirs is needed to confirm this preliminary finding.
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Wu, Binbin, Guoqiang Wang, Changming Liu e Zongxue Xu. "Modeling impacts of highly regulated inflow on thermal regime and water age in a shallow reservoir". Journal of Hydroinformatics 15, n. 4 (26 marzo 2013): 1312–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2013.178.

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Thermal regime and transport of dissolved pollutants, strongly related to water quality and algae bloom in reservoirs, may be quantized by indicators of water temperature and water age, respectively, and these indicators are more spatially and temporally variant in shallow reservoirs. Here, a two-dimensional model was used for studying characteristics of the indicators in Douhe Reservoir, based on data of the year 2008. Douhe Reservoir is a typical shallow reservoir in Northern China, characterized by highly regulated inflow and thermal effluent. The impacts of the regulated inflow on reservoir thermal regime and water age were then analyzed through numerical experiments. The results show that the effects of inflow are associated with the flow circulations induced by inflow, thermal effluent, and wind. The most efficient inflows for alleviating thermal pollution and improving water exchange are 32.5 and 19.5 m3/s, respectively. A positive logarithmic correlation is found between water temperature and water age under the impact of inflow, while thermal effluent and wind have a slightly negative effect on the correlation. These findings provide useful information for better understanding the complex hydrodynamic and mass transport processes in a shallow reservoir.
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Coerver, Hubertus M., Martine M. Rutten e Nick C. van de Giesen. "Deduction of reservoir operating rules for application in global hydrological models". Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22, n. 1 (31 gennaio 2018): 831–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-831-2018.

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Abstract. A big challenge in constructing global hydrological models is the inclusion of anthropogenic impacts on the water cycle, such as caused by dams. Dam operators make decisions based on experience and often uncertain information. In this study information generally available to dam operators, like inflow into the reservoir and storage levels, was used to derive fuzzy rules describing the way a reservoir is operated. Using an artificial neural network capable of mimicking fuzzy logic, called the ANFIS adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, fuzzy rules linking inflow and storage with reservoir release were determined for 11 reservoirs in central Asia, the US and Vietnam. By varying the input variables of the neural network, different configurations of fuzzy rules were created and tested. It was found that the release from relatively large reservoirs was significantly dependent on information concerning recent storage levels, while release from smaller reservoirs was more dependent on reservoir inflows. Subsequently, the derived rules were used to simulate reservoir release with an average Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.81.
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Yang, Sheng-Chi, e Tsun-Hua Yang. "Uncertainty Assessment: Reservoir Inflow Forecasting with Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts and HEC-HMS". Advances in Meteorology 2014 (2014): 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/581756.

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During an extreme event, having accurate inflow forecasting with enough lead time helps reservoir operators decrease the impact of floods downstream. Furthermore, being able to efficiently operate reservoirs could help maximize flood protection while saving water for drier times of the year. This study combines ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts and a hydrological model to provide a 3-day reservoir inflow in the Shihmen Reservoir, Taiwan. A total of six historical typhoons were used for model calibration, validation, and application. An understanding of cascaded uncertainties from the numerical weather model through the hydrological model is necessary for a better use for forecasting. This study thus conducted an assessment of forecast uncertainty on magnitude and timing of peak and cumulative inflows. It found that using the ensemble-mean had less uncertainty than randomly selecting individual member. The inflow forecasts with shorter length of cumulative time had a higher uncertainty. The results showed that using the ensemble precipitation forecasts with the hydrological model would have the advantage of extra lead time and serve as a valuable reference for operating reservoirs.
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Byun, Do-Seong, Yang-Ki Cho, In-Ae Huh e Deirdre E. Hart. "Runoff-induced vertical thermal dynamics in a canyon-shaped reservoir during the summer monsoon". Marine and Freshwater Research 56, n. 7 (2005): 959. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/mf04285.

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During the summer rainy season, double thermoclines were observed in a small canyon-shaped reservoir. The physical processes leading to thermocline evolution are examined from the vertical temperature profile observed along the reservoir before and after rain. Observations show that their evolution is related to the inflow of runoff, which is colder than the reservoir surface water and post-rain fair-weather conditions. Tongue-like distributions of turbidity, conductivity and nutrient concentrations downstream from the headwater clearly reveal the presence of runoff-induced intermediate inflows. In addition to supplying nutrients, the inflow provides the oxygen-deficient intermediate layer with a rich supply of dissolved oxygen. Concurrently, in the upper part of the reservoir runoff-induced inflows may drive the oxygen-deficient bottom water to shift downstream along the layer beneath the runoff-induced inflow. The water mass between the two thermoclines may operate as a source of nutrients for algal development in early autumn when the upper thermocline is destroyed by the convective overturn owing to the surface cooling.
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Tesi sul tema "Reservoir inflows"

1

Xie, Ming 1973. "Prediction of daily net inflows for management of reservoir systems". Thesis, McGill University, 2001. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=33043.

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Operational planning of water resource systems like reservoirs and hydropower plants calls for real-time forecasting of reservoir inflow. Reservoir daily inflow forecasts provide a warning of impending floods or drought conditions and help to optimize operating policies for reservoir management based on a fine time scale. The aim of this study was to determine the best model for daily reservoir inflow prediction through linear regression, exponential smoothing and artificial neural network (ANN) techniques. The Hedi reservoir, the third largest reservoir in south China with a 1.144 x 109 m 3, was selected as the study site. The performance of these forecasting models, in terms of forecasting accuracy, efficiency of model development and adaptability for future prediction, were compared to one another. All models performed well during the dry season (inflow with low variability), while the non-linear ANNs were superior to other models in frontal rainy season and typhoon season (inflow with high variability). The performance of ANN models were hardly affected by the high degree of uncertainty and variability inherent to the rainy season. Stepwise selection was very helpful in identifying significant variables for regression models and ANNs. This procedure reduced ANN's size and greatly improved forecasting accuracy for ANN models. The impact of training data series, model architecture and network internal parameters on ANNs performances were also addressed in this study. The overall evaluation indicates that ANNs are an effective and robust tool for input-output mapping under more extreme and variable conditions. ANNs provide an alternative forecasting approach to conventional time series forecasting models for daily reservoir inflow prediction.
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Dixon, Samuel G. "Seasonal forecasting of reservoir inflows in data sparse regions". Thesis, Loughborough University, 2017. https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/33524.

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Management of large, transboundary river systems can be politically and strategically problematic. Accurate flow forecasting based on public domain data offers the potential for improved resource allocation and infrastructure management. This study investigates the scope for reservoir inflow forecasting in data sparse regions using public domain information. Four strategically important headwater reservoirs in Central Asia are used to pilot forecasting methodologies (Toktogul, Andijan and Kayrakkum in Kyrgyzstan and Nurek in Tajikistan). Two approaches are developed. First, statistical forecasting of monthly inflow is undertaken using relationships with satellite precipitation estimates as well as reanalysis precipitation and temperature products. Second, mean summer inflows to reservoirs are conditioned on the tercile of preceding winter large scale climate modes (El Niño Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, or Indian Ocean Dipole). The transferability of both approaches is evaluated through implementation to a basin in Morocco. A methodology for operationalising seasonal forecasts of inflows to Nurek reservoir in Tajikistan is also presented. The statistical models outperformed the long-term average mean monthly inflows into Toktogul and Andijan reservoirs at lead times of 1-4 months using operationally available predictors. Stratifying models to forecast monthly inflows for only summer months (April-September) improved skill over long term average mean monthly inflows. Individual months Niño 3.4 during October-January were significantly (p < 0.01) correlated to following mean summer inflows Toktogul, Andijan and Nurek reservoirs during the period 1941-1980. Significant differences (p < 0.01) occurred in summer inflows into all reservoirs following opposing phases of winter Niño 3.4 during the period 1941-1980. Over the period 1941-2016 (1993-1999 missing), there exists only a 22% chance of positive summer inflow anomalies into Nurek reservoir following November-December La Niña conditions. Cross validated model skill assessed using the Heidke Hit Proportion outperforms chance, with a hit rate of 51-59% depending upon the period of record used. This climate mode forecasting approach could be extended to natural hazards (e.g. avalanches and mudflows) or to facilitate regional electricity hedging (between neighbouring countries experiencing reduced/increased demand). Further research is needed to evaluate the potential for forecasting winter energy demand, potentially reducing the impact of winter energy crises across the region.
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Westra, Seth Pieter Civil &amp Environmental Engineering Faculty of Engineering UNSW. "Probabilistic forecasting of multivariate seasonal reservoir inflows: accounting for spatial and temporal variability". Awarded by:University of New South Wales. Civil & Environmental Engineering, 2007. http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/40630.

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Hydrological variables such as rainfall and streamfiow vary at a range of temporal scales, from short term (diurnal and seasonal) to the inter annual time scales associated with the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomena, to even longer time scales such as those linked to the Pacific (inter-) Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This temporal variability poses a significant challenge to hydrologists and water resource managers, since a failure to take such variability into account can lead to an underestimation of the likelihood of droughts and sequences of above average rainfall, which in turn has important implications for the design and operation of reservoirs for hydroelectricity generation, irrigation and municipal water supply. Understanding and accounting for this variability through well designed prediction systems is thus an important part of improving the planning, management and operation of complex water resources systems. This thesis outlines the application of two statistical techniques: wavelets and independent component analysis, to identify sources of hydrological variability, and then use this information to probabilistically generate multivariate seasonal forecasts or develop extended synthetic sequences of hydrological time series. The research is divided into four main parts. The first part outlines an application of the method of wavelets to analyse sources of Australian rainfall variability, and shows that there are coherent regions of variability in addition to the ENSO phenomenon that should be considered when developing seasonal forecasts. The second part examines the capability of three component extraction techniques: principal component analysis (PCA), Varimax and independent component analysis (ICA), in identifying and interpreting modes of variability in the global sea surface temperature dataset. The third part outlines a new technique that uses ICA to factorise multivariate reservoir inflow time series into a set of independent univariate time series, so that univariate methods can be used to develop multivariate synthetic sequences and probabilistic seasonal forecasts. Finally, the fourth part synthesises the previous three parts by demonstrating a wavelets- and correlation-based methodology for assessing sources of climate variability, and then using ICA to generate probabilistic multivariate seasonal forecasts of reservoir inflows that form part of Sydney's water supply system.
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Del, Castillo Maravi Yanil. "New inflow performance relationships for gas condensate reservoirs". Texas A&M University, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/1969/354.

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Burton, Holly. "Reservoir inflow forecasting using time series and neural network models". Thesis, McGill University, 1998. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=29800.

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In practice, the reservoir net inflow is computed based upon the application of the water balance equation to the reservoir system since it is difficult to obtain direct and reliable measurements of this variable. The net inflow process has been thus found to possess a random behaviour because it is related to the stochastic nature of various physical processes involved in the water balance computation (e.g., precipitation, evaporation, etc.). Therefore, the aim of this research is to propose a forecasting method that can accurately and efficiently predict the random reservoir inflow series. The proposed forecasting methods considered were the linear regression, the exponential smoothing technique, the periodic autoregressive moving average (PARMA) method, and the neural network procedure. An illustrative application was carried out using 25 years (1970--1994) of monthly rainfall and inflow data from the Pedu-Muda reservoirs in Kedah, Malaysia. The first 18 years (1970--1987) were used for calibration while the remaining 7 years (1988--1994) were used for verification of the proposed models. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)
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Burton, Holly. "Reservoir inflow forecasting using time series and neural network models". Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1999. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape8/PQDD_0017/MQ54220.pdf.

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Zaman, Md Sazid. "Decision analysis framework for high inflow events for small hydropower reservoir systems". Thesis, University of British Columbia, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/28036.

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Hydro system operators are often confronted with a myriad of conflicting and challenging decision situations. In particular, managing hydroelectric facilities during high inflow or unusual events can be complex, time consuming and challenging. Most high inflow events that challenge operational planners are driven by hydrology, with either too much or too little water being available. Other factors such as unusual electricity market conditions, dam safety or equipment concerns also drive decision making. In a typical case operators try to balance multiple, and at times, competing objectives during high inflow events. In the case of high inflow subject flood events, Operation Planning Engineers are usually under time pressure to make decisions when the potential outcomes of different management options are highly uncertain. In such situations, planners must quickly make critical and important decisions taking into account the current state of the system and latest available information and forecasts. Their decisions can have environmental, social and financial consequences. The purpose of this research is to develop an effective tool for the Operation Planning Engineers in Generation Resource Management of BC Hydro (British Columbia Hydro and Power Authority), which can be quickly and efficiently used during high inflow events at some of BC Hydro facilities. We describe the process that we have developed to build a tool to implement a Structured Decision Making Framework for a typical BC Hydro facility. The tool addresses the inflow uncertainties associated with high inflow floods and includes multiple objectives that are difficult to measure by means of a common unit, which necessitated the development of utility functions and required a trade-off analysis to be carried out. In this paper we also describe a methodology to do the tradeoff analysis among the objectives. We present the results of the analysis for a flood event in the Cheakamus River, October, 2003. At the end of the project decisions made in real-time will be less dependent on the planner’s own risk tolerance and more aligned with corporate risk tolerances that are acceptable to senior management.
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Barnard, Joanna Mary. "The value of inflow forecasting in the operation of a hydroelectric reservoir". Thesis, University of British Columbia, 1989. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/27759.

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The present study examines the value of conceptual hydrologic forecasting in the operation of a hydroelectric generating project. The conceptual forecasting method used is the UBC Watershed Model. The value of the conceptual forecast is determined by comparing results obtained by use of the forecast to those obtained by use of a forecast based purely on the historic record. The effect of the size of the reservoir on the value of the forecast is also considered. The operation of a hypothetical project is modelled using dynamic programming. The operation of the project is optimized using the conceptual and historic forecasts to generate a variety of operating policies. The operation of the project is then simulated using the derived operating policies and several test years of real data, to determine the potential energy generation for each scenario. The analysis is performed for several reservoir sizes and for deterministic and two stochastic representations of the data. The analysis concludes that conceptual forecasting is most useful when the annual flow is significantly different from the average annual flow of the basin. If an historic forecast is used, a deterministic representation of the data is most valuable. If a conceptual forecast is used stochastic analysis gives the most efficient operation. Forecasting of either kind is valuable for reservoir sizes greater than 25% of the mean annual flow, but the value decreases as the volume approaches 100% of the mean annual flow.
Applied Science, Faculty of
Civil Engineering, Department of
Graduate
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Faraca, Lee Joon. "A WATER BALANCE AND SEDIMENT YIELD ANALYSIS MODEL FOR THE LOPEZ LAKE RESERVOIR". DigitalCommons@CalPoly, 2020. https://digitalcommons.calpoly.edu/theses/2203.

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Lopez Lake Reservoir is the primary source of potable water for the Cities of Arroyo Grande, Grover Beach, Pismo Beach, and to the Community Service Districts of Oceano and Avila Beach. In this study, a water balance and sediment yield analysis model was developed for the reservoir’s watershed. The model was used to estimate evaporation from the lake and to examine the effects of a wildfire on the reservoir. Evaporation and wildfire are dependent on variables that change on a spatial and temporal scale, making modeling challenging. The County of San Luis Obispo uses pan coefficients to estimate evapotranspiration losses from the reservoir. In this study, a water balance model was developed using a watershed model known as Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT. Evaporation loss from the lake was calculated using the inflows simulated by the model, and other fluxes (e.g., water released for consumption to Arroyo Grande Creek, precipitation) that were obtained from the County of San Luis Obispo. The evaporation values estimated by the pan coefficient model were significantly higher than the water balance and the Penman-Monteith predictions. The Penman-Monteith method estimates seem more reasonable for the lake. SWAT was also used to simulate effects of a wildfire on sediment inflow and sediment yield into the reservoir for a year after a simulated fire. Results showed that sediment inflow rates increased by a factor of 3 following the simulated wildfire. Lopez Lake Reservoir’s capacity would be significantly affected by a wildfire. To improve the evaporation estimates it is recommended that the County of San Luis Obispo install streamflow gauges to measure the inflow into the reservoir. Using the streamflow gauges the reservoir evaporation could be calculated using the water balance method. Adding climate gauges at the reservoir would increase the accuracy of the Penman-Monteith method. Sediment gauges in the watershed would provide a calibration data source for the model as well as data collection points in the event of an actual wildfire.
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Bourdin, Dominique R. "A probabilistic inflow forecasting system for operation of hydroelectric reservoirs in complex terrain". Thesis, University of British Columbia, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/45173.

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This dissertation presents a reliable probabilistic forecasting system designed to predict inflows to hydroelectric reservoirs. Forecasts are derived from a Member-to-Member (M2M) ensemble in which an ensemble of distributed hydrologic models is driven by the gridded output of an ensemble of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Multiple parameter sets for each hydrologic model are optimized using objective functions that favour different aspects of forecast performance. On each forecast day, initial conditions for each differently-optimized hydrologic model are updated using meteorological observations. Thus, the M2M ensemble explicitly samples inflow forecast uncertainty caused by errors in the hydrologic models, their parameterizations, and in the initial and boundary conditions (i.e., meteorological data) used to drive the model forecasts. Bias is removed from the individual ensemble members using a simple degree-of-mass-balance bias correction scheme. The M2M ensemble is then transformed into a probabilistic inflow forecast by applying appropriate uncertainty models during different seasons of the water year. The uncertainty models apply ensemble model output statistics to correct for deficiencies in M2M spread. Further improvement is found after applying a probability calibration scheme that amounts to a re-labelling of forecast probabilities based on past performance. Each component of the M2M ensemble has an associated cost in terms of time and/or money. The relative value of each ensemble component is assessed by removing it from the ensemble and comparing the economic gains associated with the reduced ensembles to those achieved using the full M2M system. Relative value is computed using a simple (static) cost-loss decision model in which the reservoir operator takes action (lowers the reservoir level) when significant inflows are predicted with probability exceeding some threshold. The probabilistic reservoir inflow forecasting system developed in this dissertation is applied to the Daisy Lake hydroelectric reservoir located in the complex terrain of southwestern British Columbia, Canada. The hydroclimatic regime of the case study watershed is such that flashy fall and winter inflows are driven by Pacific frontal systems, while spring and summer inflows are dominated by snow and glacier melt. Various aspects of ensemble and probabilistic forecast performance are evaluated over a period of three water years.
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Libri sul tema "Reservoir inflows"

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Ranalli, Anthony J. Water quality of Vallecito Reservoir and its inflows, southwestern Colorado, 1996-97. Denver, Colo: U.S. Dept. of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, 1999.

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Ranalli, Anthony J. Water quality of Vallecito Reservoir and its inflows, southwestern Colorado, 1996-97. Denver, Colo: U.S. Dept. of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, 1999.

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Ranalli, Anthony J. Water quality of Vallecito Reservoir and its inflows, southwestern Colorado, 1996-97. Denver, Colo: U.S. Dept. of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, 1999.

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Vaccaro, J. J. Development, testing, and assessment of regression equations for experimental forecasts of fall-transition-season inflows to the Howard A. Hanson Reservoir, Green River, Washington. Tacoma, Wash: U.S. Dept. of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, 2000.

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Vaccaro, J. J. Development, testing, and assessment of regression equations for experimental forecasts of fall-transition-season inflows to the Howard A. Hanson Reservoir, Green River, Washington. Tacoma, Wash: U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, 2000.

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6

Gellis, Allen C. Surface-water and suspended-sediment inflow and outflow for Nutria reservoir no. 3, Zuni Indian Reservation, New Mexico, March 1994 to September 1995. Albuquerque, N.M: U.S. Dept. of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, [Water Resources Division, New Mexico District], 1998.

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7

Gellis, Allen C. Surface-water and suspended-sediment inflow and outflow for Nutria reservoir no. 3, Zuni Indian Reservation, New Mexico, March 1994 to September 1995. Albuquerque, N.M: U.S. Dept. of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, [Water Resources Division, New Mexico District], 1998.

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8

Gellis, Allen C. Surface-water and suspended-sediment inflow and outflow for Nutria reservoir no. 3, Zuni Indian Reservation, New Mexico, March 1994 to September 1995. Albuquerque, N.M: U.S. Dept. of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, [Water Resources Division, New Mexico District], 1998.

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9

Gellis, Allen C. Surface-water and suspended-sediment inflow and outflow for Nutria reservoir no. 3, Zuni Indian Reservation, New Mexico, March 1994 to September 1995. Albuquerque, N.M: U.S. Dept. of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, [Water Resources Division, New Mexico District], 1998.

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10

Gellis, Allen C. Surface-water and suspended-sediment inflow and outflow for Nutria reservoir no. 3, Zuni Indian Reservation, New Mexico, March 1994 to September 1995. Albuquerque, N.M: U.S. Dept. of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, [Water Resources Division, New Mexico District], 1998.

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Capitoli di libri sul tema "Reservoir inflows"

1

Pokhrel, Prafulla. "De-Noising Derived Inflows to Reservoirs for Hydrologic Model Calibration and Reservoir Management". In Water Resources Development and Management, 349–58. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-1971-0_36.

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2

Schultz, Gert A. "Reliability in Multipurpose Reservoir Operation: Case Studies with Correlated Inflows". In Engineering Reliability and Risk in Water Resources, 283–305. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1987. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-3577-8_16.

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Shrestha, Sangam. "Climate Change Impact on Reservoir Inflows of Ubolratana Dam in Thailand". In Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Water Resources and Water Use Sectors, 25–41. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-09746-6_3.

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Okotie, Sylvester, e Bibobra Ikporo. "Inflow Performance Relationship". In Reservoir Engineering, 339–54. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-02393-5_9.

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Hii, Ching Poon, e Hock Hwee Heng. "Review of Reservoir Sediment Inflow Estimation for Teriang Reservoir, Malaysia". In Water Resources Development and Management, 3–40. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-6205-6_1.

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Tiwari, Mukesh Kumar, e Sanjeet Kumar. "Reservoir Inflow Forecasting Using Extreme Learning Machines". In Hydrologic Modeling, 565–85. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-5801-1_40.

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Feng, Xinbin, Bo Meng, Haiyu Yan, Xuewu Fu, Heng Yao e Lihai Shang. "Mercury in Inflow/Outflow Rivers of Reservoirs". In Biogeochemical Cycle of Mercury in Reservoir Systems in Wujiang River Basin, Southwest China, 67–94. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-6719-8_5.

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Basri, Hidayah, Lariyah Mohd Sidek, A. Z. Abdul Razad, S. R. Mohd Salleh, M. S. Kamarulzaman e P. Pokhrel. "Performance of Operational Inflow Forecasting System for Hydropower Reservoir". In Water Resources Development and Management, 140–47. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-1971-0_14.

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Oyebode, Oluwaseun, e Josiah Adeyemo. "Reservoir Inflow Forecasting Using Differential Evolution Trained Neural Networks". In Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, 307–19. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-07494-8_21.

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Chang, F. J., Y. C. Lo, P. A. Chen, L. C. Chang e M. C. Shieh. "Multi-Step-Ahead Reservoir Inflow Forecasting by Artificial Intelligence Techniques". In Knowledge-Based Information Systems in Practice, 235–49. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-13545-8_14.

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Atti di convegni sul tema "Reservoir inflows"

1

Garbrecht, Jurgen D., Jeanne M. Schneider e Michael W. Van Liew. "Decadal Precipitation Variations and Inflows into Fort Cobb Reservoir, Oklahoma". In World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2006. Reston, VA: American Society of Civil Engineers, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/40856(200)37.

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2

Rashed, Ghamgeen Izat. "Inflows and energy demands of dokan hydropower reservoir operation under stochastic conditions". In 2018 13th IEEE Conference on Industrial Electronics and Applications (ICIEA). IEEE, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/iciea.2018.8397804.

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Rashed, Ghamgeen Izat. "Dokan hydropower reservoir operation under stochastic conditions as regards the inflows and the energy demands". In 2017 4th International Conference on Systems and Informatics (ICSAI). IEEE, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icsai.2017.8248324.

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4

Gorguner, Merve, Kei Ishida, M. Levent Kavvas, Noriaki Ohara e Z. Q. Richard Chen. "Regional Hydrologic Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Reservoir Inflows under the CMIP5 Climate Projections". In World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2017. Reston, VA: American Society of Civil Engineers, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/9780784480618.056.

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5

Van Hung, Nguyen, e Tran Quoc Chien. "Computer simulation and approximate expression for the mean range of reservoir storage with GAR(1) inflows". In the Fourth Symposium. New York, New York, USA: ACM Press, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/2542050.2542055.

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6

Jha, Deependra Kumar, Naoto Yorino, Yoshifumi Zoka, Yutaka Sasaki, Yuki Hayashi, Kazunoni Iwata e Ryuji Oe. "Backward search approach to incorporate excess stream inflows in SDP based reservoir scheduling of hydropower plants". In 2009 IEEE/PES Power Systems Conference and Exposition (PSCE). IEEE, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/psce.2009.4840036.

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7

Carney, Matthew C., e Woldezion Mesghinna. "An Analysis of Strategies for Managing Sediment Inflows to an Off-Stream Reservoir from a Diversion Supply Canal under Conditions of Water Scarcity". In World Environmental And Water Resources Congress 2012. Reston, VA: American Society of Civil Engineers, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/9780784412312.117.

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8

Taghavi, Soheila, Einar Gisholt, Haavard Aakre, Stian Håland e Kåre Langaas. "Autonomous Inflow Control Valve Multiphase Flow Performance for Light Oil". In Offshore Technology Conference. OTC, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.4043/31239-ms.

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Abstract (sommario):
Abstract Early water and/or gas breakthrough is one of the main challenges in oil production which results in inefficient oil recovery. Existing mature wells must stop the production and shut down due to high gas oil ratio (GOR) and/or water cut (WC) although considerable amounts of oil still present along the reservoir. It is important to develop technologies that can increase oil production and recovery for marginal, mature, and challenging oil reservoirs. In most fields the drainage mechanism is pressure support from gas and/or water and the multiphase flow performance is particularly important. Autonomous Inflow Control Valve (AICV) can delay the onset of breakthrough by balancing the inflow along the horizontal section and control or shut off completely the unwanted fluid production when the breakthrough occurs. The AICV was tested in a world-leading full-scale multiphase flow loop located in Porsgrunn, Norway. Tests were performed with realistic reservoir conditions, i.e. reservoir pressure and temperature, crude oil, formation water and hydrocarbon gas at various gas oil ratio and water cut in addition to single phase performances. A summary of the flow loop, test conditions, the operating procedures, and test results are presented. In addition, how to represent the well with AICVs in a standard reservoir simulation model are discussed. The AICV flow performance curves for both single phase and multiphase flow are presented, discussed, and compared to conventional Inflow Control Device (ICD) performance. The test results demonstrate that the AICV flow performance is significantly better than conventional ICD. The AICV impact on a simplified model of a thin oil rim reservoir is shown and modelling limitations are discussed. The simulation results along with the experimental results demonstrated considerable benefit of deploying AICV in this thin oil rim reservoir. Furthermore, this paper describes a novel approach towards the application of testing the AICV for use within light oil completion designs and how the AICV flow performance results can be utilized in marginal, mature, and other challenging oil reservoirs.
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Turov, Yury, e Marina Guznyaeva. "IDENTIFICATION OF OIL DEPOSIT REFORMATION AND DEEP FEEDING ON EXTRACTED OIL COMPOSITION". In GEOLINKS International Conference. SAIMA Consult Ltd, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.32008/geolinks2020/b1/v2/13.

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During the operation of multilayer oil fields, there is a likelihood of the occurrence of interstratal oil flows due to the occurrence of secondary technogenic channels of migration along vertical or lateral fill-spill chains. This is due to numerous perforations of fluid-tight and fluid-insulating layers, intensive oil withdrawal, the use of intensive oil recovery technologies (hydraulic fracturing, reservoir pressure maintenance systems and the other physicochemical effects in the reservoir). Thus, the original geological structure of the oil deposit may change during its operation. Besides, for some oil deposits in the later stages of their exploitation the oil inflows from deeper geological structures can be detected. In this paper the detection capability of oil deposit reformation and deep feeding on extracted oil composition is shown. The geochemical composition indices are calculated based on the GC/MS analysis of the isomeric composition of paraffins and some classes of aromatic hydrocarbons in oil samples recovered from different wells. The possibility of identifying the source of oil by their values is shown. When comparing the distributions of the values of geochemical indices in different samples of oil from one field, it was found that some of the wells extract oil from one horizon, while the composition of the extracted oil from other wells is of a mixed nature. The composition of oil from one well with a long service life is significantly differ from all others and cannot be explained as the result of mixing oil from two productive horizons. The composition of this oil is highly likely influenced by deep feeding or other technogenic factors.
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Taghavi, Soheila, Ismarullizam Mohd Ismail, Haavard Aakre e Vidar Mathiesen. "Multiphase Flow Loop Testing of Autonomous Inflow Control Valve for Light Oil". In International Petroleum Technology Conference. IPTC, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.2523/iptc-21450-ms.

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Abstract (sommario):
Abstract To increase the production and recovery of marginal, mature, and challenging oil reservoirs, developing new inflow control technologies is of great importance. In cases where production of surrounding reservoir fluids such as gas and water can cause negative effects on both the total oil recovery and the amounts of energy required to drain the reservoir, the multiphase flow performances of these technologies are of particular significance. In typical cases, a Long Horizontal Well (LHW) will eventually start producing increasing amounts of these fluids. This will cause the Water Cut (WC) and/or Gas Oil Ratio (GOR) to rise, ultimately forcing the well to be shut down even though there still are considerable amounts of oil left in the reservoir. In earlier cases, Inflow Control Devices (ICD) and Autonomous Inflow Control Devices (AICD) have proven to limit these challenges and increase the total recovery by balancing the influx along the well and delaying the breakthrough of gas and/or water. The Autonomous Inflow Control Valve (AICV) builds on these same principles, and in addition has the ability to autonomously close when breakthrough of unwanted gas and/or water occurs. This will even out the total drawdown in the well, allowing it to continue producing without the WC and/or GOR reaching inacceptable limits. As part of the qualification program of the light-oil AICV, extensive flow performance tests have been carried out in a multiphase flow loop test rig. The tests have been performed under realistic reservoir conditions with respect to variables such as pressure and temperature, with model oil, water, and gas at different WC's and GOR's. Conducting these multiphase experiments has been valuable in the process of establishing the AICV's multiphase flow behavior, and the results are presented and discussed in this paper. Single phase performance and a comparison with a conventional ICD are also presented. The results display that the AICV shows significantly better performance than the ICD, both for single and multiphase flow. A static reservoir modelling method have been used to evaluate the AICV performance in a light-oil reservoir. When compared to a screen-only completion and an ICD completion, the simulation shows that a completion with AICV's will outperform the above-mentioned completions with respect to WC and GOR behavior. A discussion on how this novel AICV can be utilized in marginal, mature, and other challenging reservoirs will be provided in the paper.
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Rapporti di organizzazioni sul tema "Reservoir inflows"

1

Ewing, L. K. Suspended-sediment inflows to Watts Bar Reservoir. Revision 1. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), settembre 1993. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/485957.

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Cheng, A. M. Development of general inflow performance relationships (IPR's) for slanted and horizontal wells producing heterogeneous solution-gas drive reservoirs. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), aprile 1992. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/5596773.

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Cheng, A. M. Development of general inflow performance relationships (IPR`s) for slanted and horizontal wells producing heterogeneous solution-gas drive reservoirs. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), aprile 1992. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/10137825.

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4

Water quality of Vallecito Reservoir and its inflows, southwestern Colorado, 1996-97. US Geological Survey, 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/wri994092.

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Development, testing, and assessment of regression equations for experimental forecasts of fall-transition-season inflows to the Howard A. Hanson Reservoir, Green River, Washington. US Geological Survey, 2000. http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/wri004153.

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6

Surface-water and suspended-sediment inflow and outflow for Nutria Reservoir No 3, Zuni Indian Reservation, New Mexico, March 1994 to September 1995. US Geological Survey, 1998. http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/wri984083.

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