Letteratura scientifica selezionata sul tema "Result measurement in HR"

Introduction: There are many available applications for smartphones to measure heart rate (HR) based on a finger pulse wave, without any additional devices. An important feature of the application should be the possibility to detect arrhythmia, especially atrial fibrillation (AF). The purpose of this study was to evaluate the utility of HR measurement applications, available for smartphones, in terms of the reliability of the measurements and the possibilities for arrhythmia detection. Material/Methods: From the free applications available on smartphones with the iOS operating system we selected all (N=16), which offer HR measurement and a simultaneous graphical pulse wave recording. The HR was examined in 15 healthy volunteers with a sinus rhythm confirmed in ECG. The next step was to evaluate the reliability of HR measurement in 15 patients with AF. Results: The average difference in the HR was 6% (0.6%-33%), while a difference below 5% was observed in 11 applications. According to our study, the most reliable applications to measure HR in patients with sinus rhythm was Instant Heart Rate by Azumio company. Five most reliable applications have been selected to test in patients with AF. We have chosen this application according to the most reliable HR measurement (<5%), best graphic pulse wave recording and the ability to view the recording at the end of the measurement. Only 1 of 5 applications - Heart Rate from Bump company - had >95% HR compatibility with ECG (the measurement difference was 0.88 %). Conclusions: The majority of the free applications, available for smartphones, are able to measure HR precisely in patients with sinus rhythm, while in patients with AF, the exact measurement is significantly impeded by HR deficits. Only one out of 16 applications was able to measure HR in a patient with AF. None of the available applications could detect AF.

Purpose This paper aims to design a vision-based non-contact real-time accurate heart rate (HR) measurement framework for home nursing assistant. Design/methodology/approach The study applied Second-Order Blind Signal Identification (SOBI) algorithm to extract remote HR signal and analyzed it with Fast Fourier Transform (FFT). Multiple regions of interest are chosen and analyzed to obtain a more accurate result. Findings An accurate non-contact hear rate (HR) measurement framework is proposed and proved to be efficient. Originality/value The contributions of this HR measurement framework are as follows: accurate measurement of HR, real-time performance, robust under various scenes such as conversation, lightweight computation which is suitable and necessary for home nursing assistance. This framework is designed to be flexibly used in various real-life scenes such as domestic health assistance and affectively intelligent agents and is proved to be robust under such scenes.

Background: Altered glenohumeral joint range of motion can be caused by increased humeral retroversion (HR) and/or posterior capsule tightness (PCT). To make informed clinical decisions, it is vital to understand how HR and PCT alterations, individually and in combination, affect joint range of motion measurements. Purpose: To evaluate the effect of experimental tissue alterations on clinical range of motion measures. Study Design: Controlled laboratory study. Methods: Five clinical measurements were quantified in 8 fresh-frozen cadavers under 4 experimentally created conditions: baseline (no alterations), HR condition (20° increase in HR by transecting the bone), PCT condition (20% decrease in length via thermal energy), and PCT + HR combined. Clinical measurements included bicipital forearm angle, low flexion, glenohumeral internal and external rotation, and horizontal adduction. All measurements were taken by the same blinded tester. Separate 1-factor repeated measures analyses of variance were used to evaluate the effect of the alterations on each clinical measurement. Results: There was a significant main effect of condition for bicipital forearm angle ( P = .02, F = 4.03), low flexion ( P = .02, F = 3.86), internal rotation ( P = .03, F = 3.65), and external rotation ( P < .001, F = 15.15) but not for horizontal adduction ( P = .29, F = 1.33). The HR condition resulted in a decreased bicipital forearm angle of 16.1° and 15.8° as compared with the PCT and PCT + HR conditions, respectively. When compared with baseline, the PCT + HR condition decreased the low flexion test by 13.5°, and the HR condition decreased internal rotation range of motion by 14.2°. All conditions increased external rotation when compared with baseline. Conclusion: Greater measurement changes were noted in both HR conditions, suggesting that bony alterations influence motion to a greater extent than posterior capsule alterations. Clinical Relevance: Clinicians should be aware that humeral retroversion will influence the measurement of posterior shoulder tightness.

Objective To compare corneal thickness (CT) measurements using the CEM-530 (Nidal, Gamagori, Japan) and Pentacam HR (Oculus, Wetzlar, Germany). Methods The CT of 209 healthy subjects (209 right eyes) aged 24 to 89 years (71.35 ± 10.72 years) was measured at the corneal apex (CA), pupil center (PC), and thinnest point (TP) with the Pentacam HR and at the corneal center with the CEM-530 in random order at the same time of day. Results A good correlation but statistically significant difference was found between the CEM-530 and Pentacam HR measurements at the CA (6.10 ± 8.12 µm, R2 = 0.8947), PC (7.46 ± 8.57 µm, R2 = 0.8826), and TP (12.44 ± 10.04 µm, R2 = 0.8392). Comparison of the two devices produced the following regression formulas: y = 0.8859x + 57.644 for the CA, y = 0.8852x +56.657 for the PC, and y = 0.8557x + 68.148 for the TP, where x is the CT obtained with the CEM-530 and y is that obtained with the Pentacam HR. Conclusions These findings indicate that the CEM-530 produces a thicker corneal measurement than the Pentacam HR. The herein-proposed correcting factors are needed to reliably compare these devices.

AbstractComplementary metal oxide semiconductor (CMOS) cameras have been used to detect ionizing radiation when shaded from light or under the condition of static scenes. We propose a novel idea for simultaneous measurement of ionizing radiation and heart rate (HR) by using a smartphone with its CMOS camera lens covered by a finger in one measurement. Verified experiments were conducted: videos were recorded using a Xiaomi8 smartphone when the camera lens was covered by a finger and a light-tight tape for controlled experiment, with a ∼33 mCi 99mTc liquid radioactive source at six different distances (from 20 to 70 cm, step size 10 cm) from the camera. The exact HRs were measured using an oximeter at the same time. Image processing algorithm is proposed to extract radiation events and HR in the same videos. Results show that: (1) frame numbers containing radiation-related bright spots in two experiments have a linear relationship, and they are inversely proportional to the square of the distance between the camera and radiation source; (2) the HR difference between the video processing and the oximeter result is less than 2 beats per minute. In conclusion, it verifies that the proposed method is available to detect ionizing radiation and measure HR simultaneously with smartphone camera lens covered by a finger. We have been working on the development of an Android phone application based on the algorithms.

In0.5Ga0.5As quantum dots (QDs) stacked structure were studied using atomic force microscopy (AFM), high-resolution X-ray diffraction (HR-XRD) and photoluminescence (PL) characterization. Evolution in the dots size and dots density in the stacked structures is strongly influenced by the dot formation in the under-layer and the structure of the spacer layers. AFM results revealed that the dots formation on the top can be changed by increasing the number of stacked QDs. However, the dots formation is not vertically aligned since HR-XRD measurement gave different satellite peak on n-stacked QD structures. Room-temperature PL measurements show variation in the PL spectra, where blue-shifted PL peak positions are observed when the number of stack is increased. Variation in the HR-XRD and PL measurement is also attributed to the size, composition and density of the dots in the stacked structures.

Cardiovascular risk assessment remains difficult in elderly patients. We examined whether chromogranin A (CgA) measurement in plasma may be valuable in assessing risk of death in elderly patients with symptoms of heart failure in a primary care setting. A total of 470 patients (mean age 73 years) were followed for 10 years. For CgA plasma measurement, we used a two-step method including a screening test and a confirmative test with plasma pre-treatment with trypsin. Cox multivariable proportional regression and receiver-operating curve (ROC) analyses were used to assess mortality risk. Assessment of cardiovascular mortality during the first 3 years of observation showed that CgA measurement contained useful information with a hazard ratio (HR) of 5.4 (95% CI 1.7–16.4) (CgA confirm). In a multivariate setting, the corresponding HR was 5.9 (95% CI 1.8–19.1). When adding N-terminal proBNP (NT-proBNP) to the model, CgA confirm still possessed prognostic information (HR: 6.1; 95% CI 1.8–20.7). The result for predicting all-cause mortality displayed the same pattern. ROC analyses in comparison to NT-proBNP to identify patients on top of clinical variables at risk of cardiovascular death within 5 years of follow-up showed significant additive value of CgA confirm measurements compared with NT-proBNP and clinical variables. CgA measurement in the plasma of elderly patients with symptoms of heart failure can identify those at increased risk of short- and long-term mortality.

High-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HR-TEM) has been used as the ultimate method of thickness measurement for thin films. The appearance of phase contrast interference patterns in HR-TEM images has long been confused as the appearance of a crystal lattice by nonspecialists. Relatively easy to interpret crystal lattice images are now directly observed with the introduction of annular dark-field detectors for scanning TEM (STEM). With the recent development of reliable lattice image processing software that creates crystal structure images from phase contrast data, HR-TEM can also provide crystal lattice images. The resolution of both methods has been steadily improved reaching now into the sub-Ångstrom region. Improvements in electron lens and image analysis software are increasing the spatial resolution of both methods. Optimum resolution for STEM requires that the probe beam be highly localized. In STEM, beam localization is enhanced by selection of the correct aperture. When STEM measurement is done using a highly localized probe beam, HR-TEM and STEM measurement of the thickness of silicon oxynitride films agree within experimental error. In this article, the optimum conditions for HR-TEM and STEM measurement are discussed along with a method for repeatable film thickness determination. The impact of sample thickness is also discussed. The key result in this article is the proposal of a reproducible method for film thickness determination.

Heart rate (HR) is an important parameter in the study of the developmental physiology of chicken embryos and a crucial indicator of dead or live embryo grading in artificial incubation processes. A non-invasive HR measurement technique is required for long-term and routine HR assessment with minimal influence on embryo development. Accordingly, in this study, a non-invasive HR measurement technique of chicken embryos using a smartphone is demonstrated. The detection method of the proposed device is based on the photoplethysmography principle in which a smartphone camera is used for video recording, and the chicken embryonic HR is obtained from the recorded video images using a custom Android application. We used a smartphone to measure the embryonic HR of 60 native chicken eggs and found that it can measure the chicken embryonic HR from day 4 to day 20. The proposed smartphone HR device will be beneficial for scientific research and industrial applications. With internet connectivity, users can utilize their smartphone to measure the HR, display, share, and store the results.

<b><i>Background:</i></b> Heart rate (HR) detection in premature infants using electrocardiography (ECG) is challenging due to a low signal amplitude and the fragility of the premature skin. Recently, the dynamic light scattering (DLS) technique has been miniaturized, allowing noninvasive HR measurements with a single sensor. <b><i>Objective:</i></b> The aim was to determine the accuracy of DLS for HR measurement in infants, compared to ECG-derived HR. <b><i>Methods:</i></b> Stable infants with a gestational age of ≥26 weeks, monitored with ECG, were eligible for inclusion. HR was measured with the DLS sensor at 5 different sites for 15 min each. We recorded every 10th second of the DLS-derived HR and the DLS signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), and the ECG-derived HR was extracted for analysis. Patients were randomly divided into 2 groups. In the first group, the optimal SNR cut-off value was determined and then applied to the second group to assess agreement. <b><i>Results:</i></b> HR measurements from 31 infants were analyzed. ECG-DLS paired data points were collected at the forehead, an upper extremity, the thorax, a lower extremity, and the abdomen. When applying the international accuracy standard for HR detection, DLS accuracy in the first group (<i>n</i> = 15) was optimal at the forehead (SNR cut-off 1.66). Application of this cut-off to the second group (<i>n</i> = 16) showed good agreement between DLS-derived HR and ECG-derived HR (bias –0.73 bpm; 95% limits of agreement –15.46 and 14.00 bpm) at the forehead with approximately 80% (i.e., 1,066/1,310) of all data pairs remaining. <b><i>Conclusion:</i></b> The investigated DLS sensor was sensitive to movement, overall providing less accurate HR measurements than ECG and pulse oximetry. In this study population, specific measurement sites provided excellent signal quality and good agreement with ECG-derived HR.

Este estudo trata das relações entre práticas de recursos humanos, comprometimento e desempenho organizacional. Seu objetivo central é o desenvolvimento de um modelo teórico descritivo para explicar como a percepção de práticas de recursos humanos influencia o comprometimento e o desempenho organizacional. Pesquisas anteriores indicaram a existência de relacionamentos entre práticas de recursos humanos e performance empresarial, bem como relacionamentos entre práticas de recursos humanos e comprometimento organizacional sem, no entanto, estabelecer relações causais consistentes. O objetivo do estudo foi atingido através de combinação de procedimentos metodológicos qualitativos e quantitativos. Uma primeira etapa, exploratória, foi baseada em entrevistas em profundidade com executivos de empresas gaúchas de ponta em seus segmentos produtivos, e serviu para a elaboração da escala do construto ‘práticas de RH’. A segunda etapa, quantitativa, foi baseada em um estudo de caso num grupo industrial paulista com múltiplas instalações. Investigou-se, junto aos empregados, através de uma survey, a sua percepção a respeito das práticas de RH, além de mensurar o seu grau de comprometimento organizacional com a utilização da escala de Meyer e Allen (1991). As medidas de desempenho utilizadas foram objetivas, ou seja, indicadores de desempenho real foram fornecidos pela empresa objeto do estudo de caso. Para testar as relações entre os construtos da pesquisa, foi utilizada a Modelagem de Equações Estruturais. Os resultados encontrados indicam forte relacionamento entre os três construtos empregados, cujas escalas de mensuração apresentaram evidências de validade. Os parâmetros do modelo sugerem que a percepção das práticas de RH induzem a um aumento do comprometimento, contribuindo para melhor desempenho organizacional (relação entre práticas de RH e comprometimento organizacional – γ= 0,89; relação entre comprometimento e desempenho organizacional – β= 0,70). A seleção interna explica 60% da variabilidade do construto de práticas de RH, enquanto que treinamento, coaching, desenvolvimento de líderes, responsabilidade social e segurança explicam 55% dessa variabilidade. A análise das inter-relações das diversas variáveis que compõem os construtos do modelo fornece informações importantes e relevantes para a gestão de recursos humanos, contribuindo para uma linha de pesquisa que, internacionalmente, investiga o relacionamento da gestão de recursos humanos e o desempenho organizacional.
This study approaches the relations between human resource practices, commitment and organizational performance. It primarily aims at the development of a technical descriptive model to explain how the perception of human resource practices influence both the commitment and organizational performance. Previous research has indicated the existence of relation between human resources practices and enterprise performance, as well as human resources practices and organizational commitment, without, however, establishing consistent causal relations. The objective of this study was achieved through a combination of qualitative and quantitative methodological procedures. A first step, called exploratory, was based on in-depth interviews with executives of major companies in their productive segments from the State of Rio Grande do Sul, The interviews were used to elaborate the scale of the construct ‘HR Practices’. The second stage – qualitative - was based on a case study in an industrial group with multiple facilities located in the State of São Paulo. The perception of employees about HR practices was investigated through a survey. The degree of organizational commitment was measured using the Meyer and Allen (1991) scale. The performance measures were objective, meaning that real performance indicators were supplied by the company. The Structural Equation Modeling was used in order to test the relations between research constructs. The results indicate a strong association between the three constructs employed, and the measurement scales seem to be valid. The model parameters suggest that the perception of the HR practices induces an increase in commitment, contributing to a better organizational performance (relation between HR practices and organizational commitment – γ= 0.89; and between organizational commitment and performance – β = 0.70). The internal labor market explains 60% of the variability of the HR practice construct, while training, coaching, leader development, social responsibility and security explain 55% of such variability. The interrelation analysis of the variables that compose the model constructs offer relevant information to human resource management, contributing to a research line that, internationally, investigates the relation between human resource management and organizational performance.

The present diploma thesis deals with HR controlling, which represents an effective way for organizations to monitor and assess quantitative and qualitative indicators. HR controlling is an efficient means of demonstrating the contribution of HR managers not only to their departments but also to the overall aims of organizations. The first part of the thesis defines basic theoretical prerequisites concerning the importance of HR management in organization efficiency, the HR system and HR controlling. The analytical part of the thesis begins with the presentation of the BUZULUK, a.s. company. The principal part of the thesis is comprised of a situational analysis, the definition of the needs of internal HR department customers and a new conception of personal indicators. The main aim of the thesis is to analyze the present approach of the BUZULUK, a.s. company to efficiency assessment in the field of human resources and, based on this, to propose a system of efficiency indicators, which might ultimetely help the implementation of HR controlling in the aforementioned company.

Bakgrund: Utifrån HR-transformationen har HR-funktionen samt HR-chefer fått en ny inriktning. Istället för att vara omvårdande och administrativa ska de vara mer värdeskapande, strategiska och effektiva. I och med detta har även rollerna för HR förändrats där förväntningarna samt vad HR bör fokusera på i sitt arbete har blivit otydligt. Detta har i sin tur skapat ett legitimitetsproblem för HR som blivit speciellt påtagligt i ledningsgruppen, där HR-chefer nu ska verka som en strategisk business partner. Det kan finnas olika orsaker till varför detta legitimitetsproblem existerar i praktiken på den svenska arbetsmarknaden. Dock finns det bristande forskning kring HR-chefers legitimitet i ledningsgrupper i Sverige samt hur de upplever sin legitimitet. Syfte: Syftet med studien är att få en förståelse för hur HR-chefer i praktiken ser på deras legitimitet samt hur de tror att den eventuellt kan stärkas. Vidare är syftet att undersöka ifall HR-chefer använder sig utav mätverktyg gällande de mänskliga resurserna som hjälpmedel för att erhålla legitimitet. Metod: Studien har genomförts med en kvalitativ samt abduktiv metod där intervjuer har använts som datainsamlingsmetod. Det är 10 stycken HR-chefer som intervjuats från olika branscher med olika typer av erfarenheter. Vald metod grundar sig i att studien är ämnad att fokusera på att få en djupare förståelse för valt problemområde, snarare än att försöka hitta lösningar på problemformuleringen. Slutsats: Studien har resulterat i att HR-chefer generellt sett inte upplever att de har bristande legitimitet i vare sig sin yrkesroll eller i ledningsgruppen. Vidare har studien bidragit med en förståelse för att mätverktyg gällande de mänskliga resurserna faktiskt kan fungera som ett hjälpmedel till HR-chefer för att de ska erhålla eller stärka sin legitimitet. Studien har dessutom lyft fram andra faktorer som har visat sig ha en positiv inverkan på legitimiteten där kommunikation, visa sitt värde samt att vara insatt i hela verksamheten tas upp som exempel.
Background: After the HR transformation, the HR function and HR managers should be more strategic, effective and creating more value than being only an administrative function like they were before. Based on this new alignment the expectations and what the HR function should focus on have become unclear. In turn, this have created a legitimacy problem for HR and have also affected them in their ambition to become a strategic business partner in company’s boardrooms. There could be different reasons to why this legitimacy issue exists on the Swedish work market. However, are the research about HR managers legitimacy in boardrooms in Sweden and their experience around their own legitimacy insufficient. Purpose: The purpose of this study is to gain an understanding of how HR managers in practice look at their legitimacy and how they believe it can be strengthened. Furthermore, the purpose is to investigate whether HR managers use measuring tools regarding human resources in their ambition to obtaining legitimacy. Method: The study has been conducted with a qualitative and abductive method, where interviews have been used as a data collection method. 10 HR managers have been interviewed from different industries with different types of experiences. The chosen method is based on the study’s focus, which is to gain a deeper understanding of the chosen problem area, rather than trying to find solutions to the problem. Conclusion: The result of this study indicate that HR managers generally do not feel that they have a lack of legitimacy in either their professional role or in the company’s boardroom. Furthermore, the study has contributed to an understanding that measuring tools regarding human resources can function as a tool for HR managers in their ambition to obtain or strengthen their legitimacy. The study has also highlighted other factors that have proved to have a positive impact on the legitimacy where communication, showing their value and having knowledge about the entire business are addressed as examples.

The theoretical part desribes some of the main concepts used in assessing human resources effectiveness especially those from the last decade written in anglo-saxon countries. There are three goals of the analytical part: comparison of the human resource management indices with international benchmarks, testing of stated hypotheses defined in cooperation with top management of the chosen company and determination of key human resources indices. Comparison and analysis are main methods used in the thesis. Beside partial recommendations there are two main indices proposed at the end to help top management to achieve goals of the business strategy.

HR-funktionen har genomgått en del förändringar under de senaste åren. Förändringarna har främst skett genom att HR har gått från att vara en personaladministrativ funktion till en allt mer strategisk funktion. Detta har ställt nya krav på HR-funktionens roll och dess arbete. Bland annat har HR behövt bli mer datadrivna. Störst utmaning har detta inneburit för HR-funktioner inom den offentliga sektorn, som till skillnad från privat sektor, fortfarande ligger efter i den datadrivna utvecklingen, och lite forskning har gjorts i den offentliga kontexten. Syftet med denna masteruppsats är därför att öka förståelsen för datadrivet HR-arbete inom offentlig sektor. För att göra detta undersöktes tre forskningsfrågor: (1) Hur påverkas HR-funktionens roll av datadrivet HR-arbete? (2) Vilka möjligheter och utmaningar finns med datadrivet HR-arbete? (3) Vad är unikt med datadriven HR i offentlig sektor? För att få svar på forskningsfrågorna har en kvalitativ flerfallsstudie genomförts i nio olika kommuner i Västra Götaland och Halland. Data samlades in genom semistrukturerade intervjuer och en tematisk analysmetod tillämpades vid sammanställningen av resultatet. Resultatet visar att HR-funktionens roll och deras arbete drivs mer i linje med rationell styrfilosofi när ett mer datadrivet HR-arbete tillämpas. Denna studie visar att datadriven HR riskerar att ta bort HR-funktionens fokus på mjuk HR, och istället främja hård HR inom HR-arbetet, där mätning och kontroller förekommer i större grad. Möjligheten med datadrivet HR-arbete är att kunna använda och nyttja stora mängder tillgänglig data för att ta bättre beslut och genomföra effektiva insatser inom HR-området. Det möjliggör ett mer strategiskt HR-arbete som kan bidra till ökad legitimitet och förtroende för HR-funktionen. Utmaningen är att det ofta saknas kompetens hos HR-personal att arbeta datadrivet. Resultatet visar också att offentlig sektor påverkas av det faktum att de förväntas tillämpa en allt mer tillitsbaserad styrning, vilket är en styrfilosofi som kan anses vara oförenlig med datadriven HR. Studien bidrar med djupare förståelse, och fyller en kunskapslucka, gällande datadrivet HR-arbete inom offentlig sektor. Studien bidrar med insikter gällande den stora avvägning HR-funktionen är på väg in i, när HR måste hitta sätt att integrera både mjuk och hård. HR-funktionerna står mitt emellan en betydande möjlighet av att använda data, samtidigt som det finns en kraft i tillitsbaserad styrning som menar att offentlig sektor måste sluta att mäta allting, då det kan skapa ett alltför stort fokus på kontroll och detaljstyrning. Utmaningen med datadriven HR är därför hur HR-funktionerna ska använda stora mängder data utan att bli allt för datadrivna. Studien belyser att det i datadriven HR måste finnas kunskap kring när mätningar kan anses vara säkra och användas för att göra förutsägelser eller utvärderingar, men också när mätningar kan skapa felaktiga incitament eller distraktioner. Denna studies resultat kan användas som ett hjälpmedel för HR-funktioner inom den offentliga sektorn och fungera som ett ramverk för dessa HR-funktioner i syfte att utvärdera sitt datadrivna HR-arbete.

This diploma thesis concentrates on relationship between employee satisfaction and usage of new methods in Human Resources Management, particularly coaching and talent management. As employee satisfaction becomes one of the most important sources of influence on company's performance, it is also discussed in the theoretical background the relationship between employee satisfaction and company performance. The goal of the thesis is to find relationship between usage of new HRM methods (coaching and talent management) and employee satisfaction. The thesis has four chapters. First two chapters "Measurement Systems in an Organization" and "Methods in HR Management" set a theoretical background for the research. The third chapter concentrates on the research itself: employees of five Russian companies both with and without coaching and talent management, are tested. In the last chapter are compared research outcomes and theoretical approach, as well as, recommendations are given.

In this thesis I discuss the nature of ‘measurement’ in quantum theory. ‘Measurement’ is associated with several different processes: the gradual imprinting of information about one system onto another, which is well understood; the collapse of the wavefunction, which is ill-defined and troublesome; and finally, the means by which inferences about unknown experimental parameters are made. I present a theoretical extension to an experimental proposal from Leggett and Garg, who suggested that the quantum-or-classical reality of a macroscopic system may be probed with successive measurements arrayed in time. The extension allows for a finite level of imperfection in the protocol, and makes use of Leggett’s ‘null result’ measurement scheme. I present the results of an experiment conducted in Oxford that, up to certain loopholes, defies a non-quantum interpretation of the dynamics of phosphorous nuclei embedded in silicon. I also present the theory of statistical parameter estimation, and discover that a recent trend to employ time symmetric ‘postselected’ measurements offers no true advantage over standard methods. The technique, known as weak-value amplification, combines a weak transfer of quantum information from system to meter with conditional data rejection, to surprising effect. The Fisher information is a powerful tool for evaluating the performance of any parameter estimation model, and it reveals the technique to be worse than ordinary, preselected only measurements. That this is true despite the presence of noise (including magnetic field fluctuations causing deco- herence, poor resolution detection, and random displacements), casts serious doubt on the utility of the method.

The main cause of failure for most transmission pipelines is third party damages, which conduct to the creation of dents. Depending on their dimensions, these defects can be detrimental in term of pipeline integrity. Defect measurement is usually performed on field when the pipeline is under pressure. However, common assessment criteria are based on the defect characteristics measured in absence of internal pressure. An empirical relation — Ho = 1.43 Hr — links the dent’s depth in absence of pressure Ho to its depth under pressure Hr. It can be assumed that the dent’s depth decreases as internal pressure increases; however, the relation is used whatever the pressure value, during measurement, is. Therefore, this relation can be considered as too conservative, and not realistic, especially when the pressure during defect characterization is low. This study presents a new relation linking Ho and Hr based on results of finite elements calculations and experimental data. The calculated results are always conservative, and the difference between experimental and calculated data does not exceed one percent. Gaz de France Research and Development division has also been able to decrease the coefficient of the relation below 1.43 for most of cases, especially for low values of internal pressure. But some cases with a coefficient between Hr and Ho which overtook 1,43 were also found. The depth of a dent without pressure can then be determined by taking into account the internal pressure when measuring the size of the dent.

In this paper a new nonlinear system identification approach is developed for identification of the heart rate (HR) baroreflex mechanism. The developed model in then used in the task of acute hypotensive episodes (AHE) prediction. The AHE is defined as any period of 30 min or more during which at least 90% of the mean arterial pressure (MAP) measurements are below 60 mmHg. The proposed HR baroreflex model is based on inherent features of the autonomic nervous system for which we develop an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) structure. The model showed significant improvement in HR prediction accuracy in terms of the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) in comparison with previously reported results. We achieved a value of 0.191 in mean NRMSE in prediction of HR in this paper which is about 20% better than the best reported result in other papers. For the task of AHE prediction, since arterial pressure has a direct correlation with heart rate, we could simply find the periods in which HR drops blow a certain level without losing generality. The demonstrated AHE data for twenty patients are selected to validate the proposed algorithm. Results show that the proposed method could truly predict occurrence of the AHE in 9 out of the 10 cases analyzed. Results show reliable accuracy in predicting AHE in these patients.

In 2007, certification standards for heavy duty diesel particulate matter (PM) emissions were reduced from 0.1g/bhp-hr to 0.01g/bhp-hr, representing an order of magnitude reduction in pollutant level. Coincident with these standards revisions are refinements to test procedures that target reductions in measurement uncertainties. The 2007 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) specifications, as defined in 40 CFR parts 86, and US EPA 2010 specifications, as defined in CFR 1065, require significant updates to established laboratory measurement systems and test procedures. Moreover, additional regulatory standards pertaining to in-use compliance of heavy duty diesel engines will significantly impact the future of heavy duty diesel emissions measurement. As a result of the reduced emission production levels, demand for ‘real-world’ emissions measurements, and subsequent development and evaluation of on-board emissions measurement systems, West Virginia University’s Center for Alternative Fuels, Engines, and Emissions (CAFEE) has designed and constructed, with support from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the ‘next level’ transportable dual primary full-flow dilution tunnel emissions measurement laboratory. The objective of this project was to build a mobile emissions measurement laboratory, of engine test cell quality, that is capable of measuring regulated and non-regulated emissions, and meets US EPA 2007 and 2010 specifications. A thirty-foot long cargo container was constructed to house a portable emissions measurement facility, comprised of a High Efficiency Particulate Air (HEPA) primary dilution unit, two primary full-flow dilution tunnels, a subsonic venturi, a secondary particulate matter sampling system, a gaseous emissions analytical bench instrumentation system, a computer based data acquisition (DAQ) and control system, full air conditioning and ventilation system, and chassis dynamometer control systems. Dual tunnels, of 18 inches ID and 20 feet long provide dedicated measurement capability for both lower PM vehicles, as well as legacy diesel fueled vehicles. This provision reduces tunnel history effects between test programs which address differing exhaust composition and PM loading. The laboratory grade analytical system can be transported to virtually any location with a demand for emissions testing, either with or without WVU’s transportable medium or heavy duty chassis dynamometers. Alternatively, the system can be loaded onto a flatbed trailer in order to test emissions while a vehicle is operated over the road. This paper describes each sub-system of this transportable laboratory in the aspect of specifications and design considerations, and presents results of qualification tests on the laboratory.

In the measurement of machine tool and robot geometric errors, one of the most extensively used instruments is the Laser Tracker (LT). Errors in the LT measurements will decrease the effectiveness of the error modeling and compensation methods that utilize these measurements. When the LT’s Absolute Distance Meter (ADM) is used without frequent referencing to a home position, large and long-term shifts occur. The ADM shift directly introduces errors in the radial component of every measurement in spherical coordinates, which will result in measurement errors in the Cartesian coordinates. Although the ADM shift is addressed in newer LT designs using internal referencing hardware, this paper presents a pragmatic and efficient software solution to ADM shift for LTs in which the internal referencing hardware is not embedded. The LT was measured for 22 hr in a temperature-constant room to examine the ADM shift effects on measurements. An ADM shift model was then proposed by assuming that the ADM shift equally affects radial components of all measurements wherever the target is, as long as it is within the measurement range. Another experiment was then performed to test the validity of the proposed model. After the model was identified and errors were corrected, the maximum temporal variation in the radial distance measurement is reduced by 80–86%.

Abstract This study presents a time-interleave and low DC drift long-time continuous photoplethysmography (PPG) signal acquisition system to obtain accurate measurement of heart rate (HR) in real-time. Time-interleave functionality is used herein to minimize the mispositioning issue. Intensity tuning and transimpedance amplifier gain tuning is used herein to acquire a high-quality PPG signal. The front-end analog readout circuit is designed and implemented by using T18 process. The experimental result shows that the design readout system has the DC settling time of 1 second after the motion artifact. The measured current sensing range is 30nA–10uA. The estimated signal to noise ratio is 68dB@1Hz. The backend pre-signal processing incorporates a new convolution-based moving average filter, signal quality index estimator, and a peak-through detector. The non-invasive PPG sensor is applied to the wrist artery of the 40 healthy subjects for sensing the pulsation of the blood vessel. During the measurement, the subject did not drink (alcohol), eat, smoke or workout. The Measurement results shows that the heart rate accuracy and standard error are 95%, and 0.37±1.96bpm, respectively.

The objective of the Project is to define an experimental protocol for the accessibility assessment of the transport vehicles, by analysing the evolution of the effort and time variables consumed by a target group –Persons of Reduced Mobility (PMRs). This protocol consisted in tests of accessibility on a sample of 6 passenger cars (class M1) by 8 elderly people carrying a heart rate monitor, and whose access manoeuvres were recorded by video cameras. Based on the Hilloskorpi et al. [1] model and by developing a method of truncation of the heart rate (HR) tests records - eliminating the component of the work biologically needed by the organism to keep its basal metabolic rate from the work each person performed – it was possible to evaluate how much energy each individual invested in each access manoeuver. Immediately after each test, and after the whole round of vehicles, each participant was surveyed for a subjective assessment of the difficulty of accessing to the cars. According to each of the above results, the HR objective measurements and the subjective opinion about the ease of access experienced by each individual, the vehicles were ranked by order of accessibility to the front and rear seats. The result of both rankings showed the orders of the similar vehicles, the potential of the method and a fair closeness between its results and the subjective, but real and unequivocal, judgments of the participants.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4995/CIT2016.2016.3501

In 2007, U.S. certification standards for heavy duty on-road diesel engine particulate matter (PM) emissions were reduced from 0.1g/bhp-hr to 0.01g/bhp-hr, representing an order of magnitude reduction in pollutant level. The Tier 4 standards for nonroad diesel engines, being phased in from 2008 through 2015, also require similar level of reduction in PM. Most conventional diesel engines could meet these low PM standards, once equipped with a diesel particulate filter (DPF). However, accurate, repeatable measurements of this PM may pose significant challenges. Gravimetric PM measurement involves diluting exhaust, then collecting the resultant aerosol sample on approved filter media. Few data exist to characterize the evolution of particulate matter (PM) in dilution tunnels, particularly at very low PM mass levels. Data are lacking as well, for PM evolution in portable dilution instruments and in exhaust plumes downstream of the tailpipe. Size distributions of ultra-fine particles in the diesel exhaust from a naturally aspirated ISUZU C240 diesel engine, equipped with a DPF, were studied. Particle size distribution data, during steady-state engine operations, were collected using a Cambustion DMS500 Fast Particulate Spectrometer. The effects of dilution ratios, dilution rates, and residence times on the diesel particulate matter (DPM) size distributions were analyzed and discussed. Measurements were made for three dilution methods: dilution in standard primary and secondary-dilution tunnels with a full scale Constant Volume Sampler (CVS) system, instrument dilution with a Portable Particulate Measurement Device (PPMD), and ambient dilution at the post-tailpipe exhaust plume centerline. Gaseous emissions measurements were utilized as surrogate confirmation of adequate mixing at the various measurement locations, as well as an indicator of dilution ratios. Tunnel sample results indicated varying size distributions at tunnel cross sections where the flow was still developing. Evolution of particle-size distributions was observed even for fully mixed primary flow conditions. Size distributions at the end of the secondary dilution tunnel were observed to vary with different secondary-dilution ratios. Particle-size distributions of post-tailpipe and PPMD test results were analyzed and compared with those results collected from the full-flow tunnel. Results from post-tailpipe sampling indicate that nucleation was the dominant process when the exhaust plume was diluted along the post-tailpipe centerline. Results from PPMD dilution measurements indicate that change of particle-size-distribution curves, including number count and mass concentration levels, were not as strongly correlated to dilution ratios as were the results from the other two sampling methods. This study shows that particle-size distributions measured inside full-flow dilution tunnel can adequately mimic freshly emitted exhaust sampled immediately post-tailpipe.

The Mutual Inductance Bridge (MIB) system scans waterwalls for multiple defect types. Already used successfully to detect fireside corrosion and erosion, the capability has been expanded to quench cracking. The MIB electromagnetic approach uses in-phase and quadrature information to detect defects well before potential breakouts might cause plant outages. Fireside corrosion, scale and clinker deposits as large as 0.5” do not interfere with measurement accuracy or speed. Although quench crack defects alone do not change the mass of ferromagnetic material, the magnetic field perturbations caused by their presence provide a unique signature. The robotic MIB deployment containing a position measuring laser, video cameras and proprietary electronics scans 400 ft2 per hour; the handheld unit scans 125 ft2/hr. Scan results include color-coded maps that describe the condition of scanned areas, and individual tube profiles. Results of several applications are presented.

CSP plants using supercritical CO2 (sCO2) power cycle can potentially achieve high thermal conversion efficiency at low capital cost due to compact turbomachinery and other components. An sCO2 expander and improved heat exchanger is expected to provide a major stepping stone for achieving CSP power at $0.06/kW-hr LCOE, energy conversion efficiency > 50%, and total power block cost < $1,200/kW installed. However the life limiting mechanisms of these turbomachines in high pressure, high temperature sCO2 environment are not well understood. To understand the effect of high pressures, high temperatures and sCO2 chemical kinetics on crack initiation, crack propagation and low cycle fatigue (LCF) life of these turbomachines, a novel experimental setup is developed. Advanced microstructure and spectroscopic analyses are conducted that shed light on some key differences between various Ni base alloys in terms of oxidation morphology, chemical species diffusion and trapping, the formation of protective corrosion resistant layers and changes in surface properties. An experimental technique for low cycle fatigue experiments in high pressure, high temperature supercritical CO2 environment is developed. The test setup allows for pressurized LCF testing of alloys being considered for MW scale sCO2 turbine development. Results show that the LCF life remains the same (within the scatter band) irrespective of the location of crack initiation site whether at the OD (non shot-peened bars in air and sCO2), or at the ID (shot peened bars). Total fatigue life, for all conditions, lie within the normal variation in LCF results (± 2X life variation). No significant LCF life debit is observed in IN718 by sCO2 at 550 °C, 0.7% max strain, 20 cpm. Similar conclusion is reached during 0.6% max strain tests. The effect of sCO2 is found not to be significantly more damaging than air at these strain levels. However, the results can be different for lower % max strains due to longer exposure times involved, resulting from larger number of cycles to failure. Similarly at higher temperatures and/or longer hold-times, sCO2 environment may be more aggressive, resulting in lower total fatigue life.

Abstract: Contemporary organizations focus on team work and methods and techniques for resolving communication barriers within the team oblige managers to take long term actions. The DISC method for assessing the characteristics and behavior of persons is a tool for grouping individuals before business activities. By combining the personality and temperament of members, an effective team for specific business situation is created. Theoretical research showed that DISC method was accepted as one of the tool to improve communication within the team, but also answered the questions if the DISC method is a scientifically accepted method as well as due to the complexity of the DISC method if there an obligation to acquire the necessary competencies of those who implement and use it and if the method is recognized in the practice of HR management. This paper is to use desk analysis of existing research to analyze DISC methods of personality analysis that are often used in human resource management. The results show that DISC method is of very good measurement quality, and can be adviced to the HR managers as effective and useful tool. Sažetak: Suvremene organizacije se fokusiraju na timski rad čime metode i tehnike za rješavanje komunikacijskih prepreka unutar timova postaju dugoročni zadaci menadžera. DISC metoda za procjenu karakteristika i ponašanja pojedinaca je alat za stvaranje timova prije početka poslovnog djelovanja. Kombiniranjem osobnosti i temperamenta članova tim će postati efektivan za specifičnu poslovnu situaciju. Istraživanje teorije je pokazalo da se radi o prihvaćenoj metodi za poboljšanje timske komunikacije, ali je odgovorilo i na pitanja radi li se o znanstveno prihvatljivoj metodi te obzirom na kompleksnost metode postoji li obveza posjedovanje određenih kompetencija za one koji će metodu primjenjivati. Istraživanje odgovara i na pitanje koliko je ova metoda prepoznata u hrvatskoj praksi. Članak prikazuje deskriptivnu analizu postojećih istraživanja DISC metode i primjene iste u području upravljanja ljudskim resursima. Rezultati pokazuju da je DISC metoda visoke mjerne kvalitete i može se prikazati kao koristan i upotrebljiv alat.

It is readily apparent to everyone that there are multiple and serious concerns that face Muslim societies today. Terrorism, civil strife, poverty, illiteracy, factionalism, gender injustices and poor healthcare are just a few of the challenges to governance across the Muslim world. These are core issues for governance and public administration in any form of government. However, before we can engage with good governance within the context of Islam, we need to be clear what mean by good governance itself. A simple definition of good governance is that of an institutionalised competency of administration and institution leading to efficient resource allocation and management[1]. Another way of looking at it is as a system which is defined by the existence of efficient and accountable institutions[2]. Civil society now tends to look at good governance by way of impact measurement and how a certain set of processes result in a set of measurable and desirable outcomes.

The definition and understanding of community-centered preventing and countering violent extremism (P/CVE) research lacks analytical clarity. This chapter examines this concept with a focus on the Southeast Asian context, reflecting on opportunities, challenges, and pitfalls, to lay the foundation for future theorization and comparative P/CVE research in local contexts. Collaboration with independent and genuine community actors is advantageous for all stakeholders, since deficient trust, tamed and crystallized relationships, and a lack of resources and capacities can result in biased research findings. The chapter advocates for the establishment of research and evaluation frameworks in National Action Plans, with the aim to set out common definitions, measurement tools, and methodologies in consultation with all stakeholders, including community actors. This is a necessary step in producing systematic, cumulative, and comparative research and evaluation findings that hold true across local contexts. Finally, the chapter discusses the ethical implications of conducting community-centered P/CVE research with minority communities––such as the creation of suspicious, ostracized, and alienated communities––as well as with majority communities. It also speaks to the potential for research findings and topics of focus interfering in or being instrumentalized to impact a country’s democratic process. Although the Southeast Asian context is used to discuss the opportunities and challenges of the different approaches to community-centered P/CVE research, key findings are likely relevant to other contexts.

This project summarizes the results from 2000–2020and evaluates the trueness andthequality control (QC) procedures of the ongoing polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH)and trace element measurements in Finlandrelating to Air Quality (AQ) Directive 2004/107/EC. The evaluation was focused on benzo(a)pyrene and other PAH compounds as well as arsenic, cadmium and nickel in PM10and deposition. Additionally, it included lead and other metals in PM10and deposition, gaseous mercury and mercury deposition, andbriefly other specificAQ measurements such as volatile organic compounds (VOC)and PM2.5chemical composition. This project was conducted by the National Reference Laboratory on air quality and thiswas the first time these measurements were assessed. A major part of the project was field and laboratory audits of the ongoing PAH and metal measurements. Other measurements were briefly evaluated through interviews and available literature. In addition, the national AQ database, the expertise of local measurement networks and related publications were utilised. In total, all theseven measurement networks performing PAH and metal measurements in 2019–2020took part in the audits. Eleven stations were audited while these measurements are performed at 22 AQ stations in Finland. For the large networks, one station was chosen to represent the performance of the network. The audits included also six laboratories performing the analysis of the collected samples. The audits revealed the compliance of the measurements with the AQ Decree 113/2017, Directive 2004/107/EC and Standards of the European Committee for Standardization(CEN). In addition, general information of the measurements, instruments and quality control procedures were gained. The results of the laboratory audits were confidential,but this report includes general findings, and the measurement networks were informed on the audit results with the permission of the participating laboratories. As a conclusion, the measurementmethodsusedwere mainly reference methods. Currently, all sampling methods were reference methods; however, before 2018 three networks used other methods that may have underestimated concentrations. Regarding these measurements, it should be noted the results are notcomparable with the reference method. Laboratory methods were reference methods excluding two cases, where the first was considered an acceptable equivalent method. For the other, a change to a reference method was strongly recommended and this realized in 2020. For some new measurements, the ongoing QC procedures were not yet fully established, and advice were given. Some networks used consultant for calibration and maintenance, and thus theywere not fully aware of the QC procedures. EN Standards were mostly followed. Main concerns were related to the checks of flow and calculation of measurement uncertainty, and suggestions for improvement were given. When the measurement networks implement the recommendations given inthe audits, it can be concluded that the EN Standards are adequately followed in the networks. In the ongoing sampling, clear factors risking the trueness of the result were not found. This applies also for the laboratory analyses in 2020. One network had concentrations above the target value, and theindicative measurementsshould be updated to fixed measurements.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.