Letteratura scientifica selezionata sul tema "TOTAL TECHNICAL LIFE"

The total life-cycle management of the building engineering system integrates all the elements (including goals, objects, processes, technology, etc.) of the engineering management in the dimension of the total life-cycle, thus achieving the overrall optimal goal of the engineering life-cycle system. For the realization of the engineering total life-cycle management, the engineering breakdown structure (EBS) is adopted: according to function and professional (technical) system, decomposing the engineering system into engineering subsystems with certain fineness. EBS can realize the whole-process integrated management of engineering planning, design, construction and operation, and technically support the total life-cycle management of all construction activities. Based on EBS, the total life-cycle management of the building engineering can ensure security, reliability and efficiency in the operation of the engineering total life cycle, focusing on the high-level goals of resource-saving, cost optimization, harmony with the environment, health and sustainable development.

Osteoarthritis of the shoulder is a common condition in the aging population, and it can have profound effects on patients’ quality of life. The anatomic total shoulder arthroplasty is a well-described treatment modality resulting generally excellent outcomes. The objective of this review is to discuss the technical aspects of primary anatomic total shoulder arthroplasty, and to provide a framework to follow to achieve a successful surgical result. The topics covered include preoperative planning, surgical considerations, and approaches, humeral preparation, glenoid bone loss and the emerging concept of using the reverse total shoulder arthroplasty for the type B2 glenoid.

Material selection in mechanical products based on total life cycle design is a complicated work, which should be studied systematically. A material selection model of mechanical products based on total life cycle design was proposed. A set of candidate materials were screened out, and then assessed according to the technical, economic and environmental assessment index. The candidate materials were ranked by using by using Z-transformation method in each of the assessment index. Different weights were assigned to each of the three assessment indexes, and global assessment was carried out according to different strategies or requirements which pay more attention to technical, economic or environmental performance of the material product used. A case in selecting aircraft structure element material was studied. The analysis results showed that the method could rank the candidate materials and selected out the “optimized material”, and the influence of the subjectivity of designer was reduced. The method provides some practical values for preliminary material selection in the early design stage of the mechanical products based on life cycle design.

The paper discusses life prediction of pressurized cylindrical container because of its dangerous failure during usage. The fatigue of material and crack propagation were obvious from the fracture surface. Crack initiation was located in the notch root of the thread. Our goal was to review the vessel structural design based on its technical documentation.Two approaches for estimating the crack initiation period were used. As input parameters, stress-strain relations in the notch were obtained from FEM analysis, done in ANSYS Workbench. The first approach makes use of Neuber’s rule based on elastic-plastic shakedown and cyclic stress-strain curve. The second concept (which is described in ČSN EN 13445-3 or AD 2000 Mekblatt S2 respectively) uses elastic shakedown. Included stress-life curves leads to the number of cycles to crack initiation.Finally the subcritical crack growth period and final fracture were estimated = the total life was evaluated.

AbstractTransanal total mesorectal excision (TaTME) was developed to overcome the technical challenges of a minimally invasive (ultra-) low anterior resection. This new technique has recently come under careful scrutiny as technical pitfalls were reported, in specific relation to the transanal approach. Patients are at risk for urologic lesions. Moreover, carbon dioxide embolism is a rare but potentially life-threatening complication. The benefit of TaTME from an oncological point of view has neither been clarified. Hypothetically, better visualization of the lower rectum could lead to better dissection and total mesorectal excision (TME) specimens, resulting in better oncologic results. Up until now, retrospective multicenter reports seem to show that short-term oncologic results are not inferior after TaTME as compared with after laparoscopic TME. Alarming reports have however been published from Norway suggesting a high incidence and particular multifocal pattern of early local recurrence. In this article, a balanced overview is given of the most important technical pitfalls and oncological concerns arising with this new procedure.

To implement the operation of a radio technical complex according to its technical condition, it is necessary to jointly evaluate its reliability and residual life indices with required accuracy and reliability and minimization of the scope of special tests. The known methods are focused on separate solutions to the problems of estimating these indices as applied to the regulated strategy. To solve this problem, general provisions have been developed for estimating the indices of residual life of the radio technical complex including the accepted assumptions and limitations for developing the method, the estimated indices, and criteria of limiting state. The developed experiment-calculated method is a set of mathematical models of change of the reliability indices of a radio technical complex depending on calendar duration of operation or total operating time and analytical models of estimating the indices of its residual life. The mathematical models of change of mean time between failures, the probability of failure-free switching, and the parameter of the flow of failures of the radio technical complex depending on calendar duration of operation or the total operating time were presented in a form of regressive dependences. Analytical models of estimating the residual life indices are ratios for calculating the "average residual service life (resource)" according to the technical and economic criterion using regression-time dependences of the reliability indices. The developed experiment-calculated method can be used to estimate the indices of residual life of the radio technical complex with acceptable accuracy (no more than 2 quarters) and reliability (no worse than 0.8). In this case, the duration of the intervals of predicting the reliability indices should be 0.5 to 1 year and the corresponding observation intervals should be more than 1 year

Vertical occupancy, especially apartments, began to live the face of the city. Not without reason, housing needs continue to increase sharply as the availability of vacant land is increasingly limited. Occupying an apartment becomes a trend and lifestyle for young people. The reason boils down to productivity. The construction of apartments is usually built close to various activity centers, both business, commercial, education, health to entertainment. The improvement of building construction is not supported by the availability of land that is increasingly limited, especially in the city of Jarakta, making the construction of high-rise buildings anticipate this. The construction of multi-story buildings also increases the risk of fire. In 2018, according to him, there were at least 1,078 recorded disaster events throughout 2018. Head of the Jakarta Fire and Rescue Management Agency, Subedjo, said that out of a total of 897 buildings or tall buildings in Jakarta, 280 tall buildings had not yet accomplished the fire protection system (Dinas, 2018).Therefore, this research needs to be done to evaluate the lifesaving facilities and infrastructure in the building. The application of fire safety in buildings can be evaluated regarding to NFPA 101 (2013). Based on NFPA 101A: Guide on Alternative Approaches for Life Safety (2013), there are 12 elements of safety and Regulation of the Minister of Public Works No. 26 / PRT / M / 2008 concerning Technical Requirements of Fire Protection Systems in Building Buildings. The building that became the object of research is one of the buildings in the area of Jakarta mentioned building X and building Y. The variables that are the focus of the research are fire stairs, fire doors, and access roads. Based on the results of the study, the level of reliability of the means of saving lives against fire hazards in building X is equal to 58% and in building Y is 65%.

M.TECH
The Total Technical Life (TTL) of fighter aircraft “Article 29L” is 1800 flying hrs. However the TTL of Main Landing Gear (MLG) and Nose Landing Gear (NLG) is only 2000 landing. Considering average sortie duration of 45 minutes, the life of LGs should have been ideally 2400 landings. So there is need to increase the life of LGs. In older days the stress analysis and life extension study was carried out considering the experimental stress analysis approach and testing, which is time consuming and require huge testing setup. In order to bridge this gap and to reduce the effort, it is proposed to estimate the life of the under carriage by Integrated Approach of Finite Element (FE) Analysis. The determination of the fatigue life of an engineering structure is based on two precepts. These are knowledge of the structure itself and knowledge of how that structure is loaded. The information required for fully understanding these two singularly complicated items is significant hence utmost care is taken to estimation of life of LGs. In this work Finite Element (FE) Analysis 3-D geometric modeling developed using CATIA software. The assembly model was imported in PATRAN software and 3-D mesh was generated using HYPERMESH. Connectivity between the components is provided using the surface to surface contact element. Contact elements are capable of transferring the displacement as per contact status and stiffness of contacting body. The FE model was solved using NASTRAN software for stress and displacement, as per fatigue test load data available. Further fatigue analysis has been carried out using MSC Fatigue software for fatigue life estimation. To validate FE stress analysis, results were compared with classical calculations and Rejuvenation zones of MLG. Thus determine cumulative fatigue damage hot spots can be rejuvenated locally and more no of landing (life of LGs) can be extended accordingly and avoid the experimental stress analysis approach and testing for life extension.

Successive transformations have resulted in the emergence of a total technological world where old separations about ‘nature’ and ‘culture’ have declined. With this, the tendency towards technicity within modern law has flourished. There has often been identified a mechanistic essence to modern law in its domination of human life. Usually this has been considered an ‘end’ and a loss, the human swallowed by the machine. However, this innovative book sets out to re-address this tendency By examining science fiction as the culture of our total technological world, Living in Technical Legality journeys with the partially consumed human into the belly of the machine. What it finds is unexpected: rather than a cold uniformity of exchangeable productive units, there is warmth, diversity and ‘life’ for the nodes in the networks. Through its science fiction focus, it argues that this life generates a very different law of responsibility that can guide living well in technical legality.

This all-in-one text and swatch book offers current and high-quality fashion fabric samples alongside vital information like fabric name, fiber content, yarn construction, count, coloration, weight, uses, characteristics, and comparisons to other fabrics. The textbook with activities, 210 exclusive fabric samples, Quick Reference Guide tables, pre-printed mounting boards for quick access to all swatches, and an 8x metal pick glass are all contained in a sturdy three-ring binder. Step-by-step instructions and hands-on assignments help students to apply their knowledge about fabric identification and use for specific garments, encouraging deeper learning through this workbook approach. New to this Edition -New fabric and yarn samples and more technical and performance fabrics, for a total of 210 swatches that reflect current trends in the industry -Expanded coverage of knits, socially responsible market practices, and sustainable alternatives -Discussions on the circular economy and recycling in every chapter -Stain Removal Guide with instructions for fabric care STUDIO Features Include -Watch video tutorials that bring fabric swatch exercises to life -Study smarter with self-assessment quizzes featuring scored results and personalized study tips -Review concepts with flashcards of terms and definitions -Apply knowledge through additional assignments and labs Instructor Resources -Comprehensive Fabric Chart lists swatch number, fiber content, yarn construction, fabric structure, fabric name, count, stage of dye or print, weight, and visible finishes for each of the swatches from the text -PowerPoint® slides include front, back, and 10x magnified views of all swatches from the text labeled by fabric and fiber type -Instructor's Guide provides sample course outlines, answer keys to quizzes and exams, additional assignments, and tips for overcoming common obstacles -Test Bank contains chapter quizzes with multiple exams covering both the chapter text and the swatch board information

How do listeners relate to musial instruments that they do not play? This chapter investigates technically mediated modes of listening in the context of Haydn’s horn music. The valveless horns in Haydn’s orchestra had distinctive pitch affordances, which gave rise to several idiomatic figures. This instrumental invariance can shape tonal expectations, affecting how the music appears to listeners. Haydn (and other composers) also used horn calls in compositions for other instrumental forces. If situated listeners are attuned to schematic instrumental textures—if, for example, they can hear virtual horns in a string quartet or piano piece—this implies that their perception is grounded in multimodal experiences of instruments. Like performance, then, listening is both embodied and conditioned by technology.

AbstractCoupled aquaponics is the archetype form of aquaponics. The technical complexity increases with the scale of production and required water treatment, e.g. filtration, UV light for microbial control, automatic controlled feeding, computerization and biosecurity. Upscaling is realized through multiunit systems that allow staggered fish production, parallel cultivation of different plants and application of several hydroponic subsystems. The main task of coupled aquaponics is the purification of aquaculture process water through integration of plants which add economic benefits when selecting suitable species like herbs, medicinal plants or ornamentals. Thus, coupled aquaponics with closed water recirculation systems has a particular role to fulfil.Under fully closed recirculation of nutrient enriched water, the symbiotic community of fish, plants and bacteria can result in higher yields compared with stand-alone fish production and/or plant cultivation. Fish and plant choices are highly diverse and only limited by water quality parameters, strongly influenced by fish feed, the plant cultivation area and component ratios that are often not ideal. Carps, tilapia and catfish are most commonly used, though more sensitive fish species and crayfish have been applied. Polyponics and additional fertilizers are methods to improve plant quality in the case of growth deficiencies, boosting plant production and increasing total yield.The main advantages of coupled aquaponics are in the most efficient use of resources such as feed for nutrient input, phosphorous, water and energy as well as in an increase of fish welfare. The multivariate system design approach allows coupled aquaponics to be installed in all geographic regions, from the high latitudes to arid and desert regions, with specific adaptation to the local environmental conditions. This chapter provides an overview of the historical development, general system design, upscaling, saline and brackish water systems, fish and plant choices as well as management issues of coupled aquaponics especially in Europe.

Assessing student performance is one of the most critical aspects of the job of a classroom teacher. Therefore, this study seeks to explore student's perceptions of assessment practice in TVET colleges. The quantitative case study approach through questionnaire was used to discover students' perceptions of assessment practice. Random sampling method was used to select 105 males and 89 females with a total of 194 students with four TVET colleges in the Limpopo Province. The data were analysed through excel spread sheet in order to determine the specific and overall percentage of students' perceptions and four principles of PATI. The theory of assessment legitimacy was used as a lens. In order to explore student's perceptions, the study exposed learners to nine questions. The findings indicated that lecturers' classroom assessments don't reflect content validity or apply real-life experience and real-life context. However, lecturers are able to give them various assessment tasks.

The most common definition of the information society lays emphasis upon spectacular technological innovation and the transformative effects of new information and communication technologies. The key idea is that breakthroughs in information processing, storage, and transmission have led to the application of information technology in virtually all, public and private, sectors of society (Webster, 1995). By the 1990s, to admire and indeed enthuse over new ICTs had become highly fashionable and popular. Such technological enthusiasm has become so pervasive that it has seeped not only into political and policy discourses, but also into the whole spectrum of the media and fora of public communication (Preston, 2001). In addition, discourses of the information society are often dominated and shaped by male commentators (e.g., Castells, 2000; Gates, 1995; Kelly, 1999; Negroponte, 1995). For example, when compiling a collection of the dominant players of international information-society discourse, Cawley and Trench (2004) were hard-pressed to find female commentators, succeeding only in finding 3 out of a total of 18 critics.1 We argue that the focus on the artefact, and thus technological celebration, takes precedence over the largely ignored field of technological uses and consumption issues. Hence, we present a study that analyses the individual user experiences to challenge the stereotypical user traditions represented by the information-society discourse. We wish to present a counternarrative that shifts the emphasis from technical expertise, and technological and transformative benefits of artefacts to more individual-user-focused narratives. As a result, this brought about a dual-narrative process through which the respondents described their experiences. We found that when people described their uses, consumption patterns, and domestication2 experiences of ICTs, they tended to do so by employing contrasting frames of reference. These frames of reference we have termed the objective lens (or narratives) and subjective lens (or narratives). Through what we term objective narratives, we found that some respondents would describe their use through official and technical frames of reference. For example, they employed primarily dominant information-society jargon to frame how they made sense of technologies and their use experiences. Through subjective narratives, we found that respondents would describe their use and experiences from primarily a personal perspective to explain how the technology fitted their lives, the role it played in their everyday routines and habits, and the associated meaning and significance of the artefact. While these contrasting narratives are not mutually exclusive or contradictory, it became clear from the interviews that a pattern of use narratives was emerging. We found that such narratives slightly reinforced traditional gender roles in which men tend to talk about technologies in highly technical terms of reference, while women portray themselves as technologically helpless or ignorant (Gill & Grint, 1995; Gray, 1992; Lie, 1995). Although we did not look for or find stable gender categories, the emergent gender narratives seem to renew the existing gender roles that link masculinity and technology (Vehviläinen, 2002). With the development of computer technologies, we have witnessed a shift from IT to ICTs. This has resulted in a redefinition of the computer as an artefact: from a mere computational device to the newly emergent multimedia-enhanced computers, or what Paul Mayer (1999, p. 1) calls a “meta-medium.” Today, the conceptualisation of the computer is more problematic. It may be thought of as the Web or Internet, computer games, CD-ROMs (compact disc read-only memory), reference works, e-mail, and a diverse range of applications for displaying and manipulating text, images, graphics, music, databases, and the like. Spilker and Sørenson (2000, p. 270) argue that computers are no longer “primarily about programming, systems, control and calculation,” but instead “a gateway to communication and cultural activities.” The shift in identity has opened up or unlocked the conceptualisation of the computer. Therefore, it is possible for wider audiences and previously excluded groups (such as the elderly and women) to translate the computer into something meaningful in their everyday lives. As a result, we were not solely focused on the computer as a separate technology, but instead on the wide range of information and communication technologies that are available in the domestic setting.

The sustainable growth dilemma requires providing well-matched prosperity to current citizens, aimed at preserving suited life-quality standards. Currently, civilization intentionally alters the surrounding wilderness. The changes include using biological sources (agricultural revolution) and energy supplies (industrial revolution) purposefully promoted and performed by men. The modern growth decisively exploits skilful provisions acquired from fossil and fissile earth stocks, through totally technical and non-conservative ways. The instant disadvantages of this are paid by contamination, inexorably altering the bio-sphere. The engineer’s doings in the new millennium have to cope with ecological quality objectives, curbing the industrialism practices, in view to provide visibility of all induced changes and to apply the responsible recovery measures. Here, the overview of the state of the art is shown, in particular addressing the design of “product-service” items, deliberately considering the early specifications for the lifecycle and the dismissal phases, and the integration prerequisites in the supply chain management, explaining the usefulness of network aids and the connected commercial modifications. The challenge is extraordinary and involves socio-cultural aspects, too. The discussion, although offering sketchy images, concerns technical suggestions, basically limited to assessing the life cycle eco-coherence as total company challenge. The business design conditions embed compulsory legal issues, requiring worldwide management.

This chapter reflects on Hans Blumenberg's “The Relationship between Nature and Technology as a Philosophical Problem” (1951), a reception history of technē. Technology has historically constituted itself as applied natural science — as a constructive extension of nature — and this structural continuity would seem to determine the character and methodology of its problems once and for all. The historical reality of human life with technology has failed to confirm this basic assumption, however. Technology, as an objective domain within the modern world, has more and more visibly separated itself from its functional continuity with nature and has entered into new constellations that are sui generis and, indeed, diametrical opposites to natural reality. From the mere use of nature for eking out a living through to the increasing exploitation of nature as a reservoir of energy and natural resources, the development of technical consciousness and the technical will tend toward making a claim for the radical and total transformation of nature as mere materia prima for the exercise of human power.

This chapter discusses the place of energy in world history. It examines historical milestones—such as the rise of larger populations organized with greater social complexity into nation-states and supranational collectives, and enjoying a higher quality of life—in terms of dominant energy sources and leading prime movers, as well as the most important socioeconomic consequences of these technical changes. It also considers grand patterns in the consumption of energy throughout history, focusing on the long-term relationship between human accomplishments and dominant energy sources and changing prime movers in terms of energy eras and transitions. Finally, it outlines trends that have accompanied the growth of unit power of inanimate prime movers and the accumulation of their total capacity; transformations of the fossil-fuel era including new structures of social relations; imperatives of energy needs and uses; and the importance of harnessing energies and controlling their conversion to supply.

Since the Nara Hydropower Station was put into operation, it has far exceeded the designed service life of 25 years. The generator insulation is seriously aging, the water leakage of the turbine is large, the working efficiency of the unit is low, the operation failure occurs frequently, and the hidden safety problems are prominent. At present, the upstream cascade power station and the leading reservoir have been constructed and put into operation, and the hydraulic resources of the basin have been adjusted annually. By collecting hydrological data, re-calculating and determining the average annual water flow that can be used for power generation of the power station, and determining the overall plan for maintaining the existing power station dam and reforming other hydraulic structures, and then comparing and demonstrating the technical and economic plans, it is clear that the power station The total installed capacity and the number of units were optimized, new and high-efficiency hydro-generator units were selected, and the operation plan was formulated scientifically and rationally. After the renovation, the average annual power generation of the power station was 492% of that before the renovation.

Two of the best-known pioneers of therapeutic communities, Tom Main and Maxwell Jones, defined them as follows: An attempt to use a hospital not as an organization run by doctors in the interests of their own greater technical efficiency, but as a community with the immediate aim of full participation of all its members in its daily life and the eventual aim of the resocialization of the neurotic individual for life in ordinary society. What distinguishes a therapeutic community from other comparable treatment centres is the way in which the institution's total resources, staff, patients, and their relatives, are self-consciously pooled in furthering treatment. That implies, above all, a change in the usual status of patients. Today therapeutic communities can be defined by a number of common features, but a word of warning. For reasons of historical coincidence, the term is used in the fields of mental health and addictions to refer to two somewhat different treatment models. In the addiction field they are also known as hierarchical, drug-free or concept-based therapeutic communities, or simply addiction therapeutic communities, in contrast to the more democratized programmes in mental health. The two models have similar goals but their methods differ, although there are signs of increasing rapprochement between them. This chapter deals mainly with therapeutic communities in mental health, but reference will also be made to addiction therapeutic communities and those in long-term care settings. It is worth noting that those admitted to a therapeutic community for treatment are usually referred to as residents, clients, or members, rather than as patients.

The fatigue life of a component is defined as the total number of cycles or time to induce fatigue damage and to initiate a dominant fatigue flaw which is propagated to final failure.(Shigley & Mischke 2002) The aim of this project is to calculate the total fatigue life of metallic structures under cyclic loading by applying equations found by Basquin and Manson-Coffin. The local stresses and strains necessary for the calculation are determined by the finite element method. Former studies concerning this subject have used analytical methods to find the local conditions at the critical section. The analytical methods, based on Neuber and Molski-Glinka’s approaches, permit the calculation of the local stresses and strains at the critical section of the structure’s geometry as a function of the nominal stress (forces) applied. For the finite elements method, ABAQUS is used to determine the local conditions at the critical section of a T-shaped model.

Abstract Current research trends are extending from partially integrated product and process modeling to life cycle modeling, in order to provide a framework and methodologies based on a holistic approach for the support of sustainable product development. Within given scope we are interested to investigate, if feature technology, introduced in the late seventies and developed over the paste twenty years provides the potential, if further enhanced, to be used as a means to provide basic integration for geometry related processes and models over different product life cycle stages. In a first approach, feature neighborhoods are developed and introduced as an extension, to foster evaluation of disassembly / reassembly on grounds of feature-based product descriptions. An attempt to support product maintenance and material recycling within life cycle modeling while investigating structural dimension and limits of improved feature models as a means of geometry-based model integration.

Welded joints are usually the weakest link for welded structures due to the existence of stress concentration caused from welding. Fracture mechanics-based approach is a main method used to predict fatigue life for welded joints structures. In engineering, there are two main problems in fatigue life prediction, one is whether crack initiation life can be ignored or not, and the other one is to determine the crack size starting to propagate. Based on this research, a practical procedure is proposed to predict fatigue life of welded joints structures using an initial crack life model and Paris law. Emphasis is put on the discussion about crack initiation life and how to choose an appropriate method to determine the initial crack size. Noted that the proposed method in this paper does not need any tests to determine crack initiation life when crack size reaches a specified value, which depends on experience and is considered as crack size starting to propagate, thus human factors and uncertainty can be minished. Through comparison analysis, fatigue life predictions based on the proposed method are in a good agreement with experimental data.

Abstract Traditional engineering analysis of product designs has focused primarily on a product’s operational performance without considering costs of manufacturing and other stages downstream from design. In contrast, life cycle analysis of a product during its initial development can play a crucial role in determining the product’s overall life cycle cost and useful life span. This paper examines product life cycle engineering analysis - measurement of product operational performance in a life cycle context. Life cycle engineering analysis is thus considered both as an extension of traditional engineering analysis methods and as a subset of a total product life cycle analysis. The issues critical to life cycle engineering analysis are defined and include product life cycle data modeling and analysis, analysis tools and their performance regimes, performance tradeoff measurement and problems of life cycle engineering analysis in an organizational context. Recommendations are provided for future research directions into life cycle engineering analysis in the context of integration architectures for concurrent engineering.

This paper proposes an optimum design method of journal bearing for minimizing the total life cost which includes not only the initial cost but also the running cost. Journal bearing is one of the typical friction part and physically severe part in machine elements. Therefore, maintenance is required to prevent failure and to keep performance. For this object, the running cost by the maintenance is user’s burden. Thus, the optimum design method of the bearing for minimization of the total life cost is required. In this research, the evaluation functions of the total life cost which contains the initial cost and the running cost of the bearing are discussed and the optimum design is proposed under the physical constrain, that is Thermo Hydrodynamic Lubrication theory (THL theory), and inequality constraints. Then design valuables of the optimum journal bearing are obtained.

Laser shock peening (LSP) is a promising surface treatment method for improving fatigue properties of turbine blades. The effect of LSP on combined low and high cycle fatigue (CCF) life of full scale turbine blade was investigated. The LSP is performed by YLSS-40 LSP equipment and the laser power density is 5.8 GW/cm2. Thirteen LSP treated turbine blades and thirteen untreated turbine blades were selected to carry out the contrast test at high temperature in a bench environment. Experimental results show that there exists a critical vibration stress of blades, below which the CCF life was significantly prolonged by LSP, and above which the LSP has no effect or an adverse effect on the CCF life. The safe life of blades can be significantly increased after treated by LSP when the total stress is below the yield stress. However, the situation is a bit different when the total stress is above the yield stress. Although the safe life of LSP blades is longer than that of untreated blades in this situation, but the median life of blades is decreased after treated by LSP. The effect of LSP on the scatter in life plays a greater role in improving the safe life that directly leads to the safe life of LSP blades longer than the safe life of untreated blades when the total stress is above the yield stress.

Abstract The aim of this paper is to provide a novel stochastic life prediction approach capable of predicting the total fatigue life of applied uniaxial stress states from a reduced data set reliably and efficiently. A previously developed strain energy-based fatigue life prediction method is integrated with the stochastic state space approach for prediction of total cycles to failure. The approach under consideration for this study is the Monte Carlo method where input is randomly generated to approximate the output of highly complex systems. The strain energy fatigue life prediction method is used to first approximate SN behavior from a set of two SN data points. This process is repeated with another unique set of SN data points to evaluate and approximate distribution of cycles to failure at a given stress amplitude. Uniform, normal, log-normal, and Weibull distributions are investigated. From the Monte Carlo Method, fatigue data is sampled from the approximated distribution and an SN curve is generated to predict HCF behavior from LCF data.

This report describes the results of technical analysis, field tests, and laboratory tests that were performed for LED highway lighting options by the Energy Efficiency and Reliability Center (EERC) at Purdue University Northwest for the Indiana Department of Transportation (INDOT). This effort was conducted over the past 3 years to evaluate and test the technology and viability of using modern highway lighting technology to enhance energy efficiency, safety, security, and economic development of communities and roadways. During the testing period there was a continuous discussion between INDOT and EERC regarding the laboratory and field testing of INDOT approved luminaires submitted by vendors. There were multiple discussions with INDOT and vendors regarding the individual details and issues for the 29 luminaires that were tested. A comparison study was conducted by EERC of the various alternatives and comparison to currently installed luminaires. Data was collected for field tests of the luminaires by EERC and INDOT personnel for the luminaires. Field data was evaluated and compared to lighting models using vendor supplied ies data files. Multiple presentations were made at 3 separate Purdue Road Schools regarding the results and procedures of the testing program by EERC in conjunction with INDOT. A total of 22 final reports, considered confidential by INDOT, for individual vendor luminaires have been prepared as part of this effort. These reports were submitted sequentially to INDOT as testing was completed during the course of this effort. A total of 29 luminaires were tested. Some luminaire testing was terminated during testing due to design issues or vendor requests. All testing was summarized in the INDOT specification sheet attached to each report. Observations regarding the consistency of the supplied test luminaire with the requirements of Section 7.2 of the INDOT test procedure “Procedure for evaluation and approval list requirements for solid state ballasted luminaires ITM 957-17P” is provided in the Appendix to the report for each luminaire. Details regarding how these tests were performed and the respective associated evaluation of performance and reliability are provided in the report. This effort included: consideration of published and vendor information; appraisal of products consistent with national industry standards; review of physical design, thermal performance; laboratory testing of photopic performance, reliability, life cycle data and characteristics, and power characteristics; technical and probabilistic risk studies; and field testing and analysis of LED light sources including comparison to currently installed conventional light sources. Assistance in preparing INDOT standards for highway lighting was provided on multiple occasions.

Objective. This evidence report synthesizes the available evidence on radiation therapy for brain metastases. Data sources. We searched PubMed®, Embase®, Web of Science, Scopus, CINAHL®, clinicaltrials.gov, and published guidelines in July 2020; assessed independently submitted data; consulted with experts; and contacted authors. Review methods. The protocol was informed by Key Informants. The systematic review was supported by a Technical Expert Panel and is registered in PROSPERO (CRD42020168260). Two reviewers independently screened citations; data were abstracted by one reviewer and checked by an experienced reviewer. We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and large observational studies (for safety assessments), evaluating whole brain radiation therapy (WBRT) and stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) alone or in combination, as initial or postoperative treatment, with or without systemic therapy for adults with brain metastases due to non-small cell lung cancer, breast cancer, or melanoma. Results. In total, 97 studies, reported in 190 publications, were identified, but the number of analyses was limited due to different intervention and comparator combinations as well as insufficient reporting of outcome data. Risk of bias varied; 25 trials were terminated early, predominantly due to poor accrual. Most studies evaluated WBRT, alone or in combination with SRS, as initial treatment; 10 RCTs reported on post-surgical interventions. The combination treatment SRS plus WBRT compared to SRS alone or WBRT alone showed no statistically significant difference in overall survival (hazard ratio [HR], 1.09; confidence interval [CI], 0.69 to 1.73; 4 RCTs; low strength of evidence [SoE]) or death due to brain metastases (relative risk [RR], 0.93; CI, 0.48 to 1.81; 3 RCTs; low SoE). Radiation therapy after surgery did not improve overall survival compared with surgery alone (HR, 0.98; CI, 0.76 to 1.26; 5 RCTs; moderate SoE). Data for quality of life, functional status, and cognitive effects were insufficient to determine effects of WBRT, SRS, or post-surgical interventions. We did not find systematic differences across interventions in serious adverse events radiation necrosis, fatigue, or seizures (all low or moderate SoE). WBRT plus systemic therapy (RR, 1.44; CI, 1.03 to 2.00; 14 studies; moderate SoE) was associated with increased risks for vomiting compared to WBRT alone. Conclusion. Despite the substantial research literature on radiation therapy, comparative effectiveness information is limited. There is a need for more data on patient-relevant outcomes such as quality of life, functional status, and cognitive effects.

During the 88th General Session held virtually in May 2021, the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH: founded as OIE) Regional Commission for Europe agreed “Long-distance transport of live animals: WOAH’s standards and best practices including societal perception and communication aspects” as the Technical Item I to be presented during the 30th Conference of the Regional Commission in Catania (Italy), from 3 to 7 October 2022. An online questionnaire was designed and distributed to WOAH Members of the Regional Commission for Europe from 21 June to 8 July 2022 (with minor finalisations by 2 August 2022). The persons responsible for completing the questionnaire (of 47 Members in total) were mainly WOAH Delegates, National Focal Points for animal welfare or National Contact Points for long-distance transportation. The qualitative analysis of the information provided was carried out by grouping similar answers and, when proper, the United Nations geoscheme was applied to highlight any spatial clustering of the results. The wide majority of the Members (46 out of 47) declared to have in place specific legislation on animal welfare during transport, and most of them stated to be “generally aligned” with WOAH standards, there are still many countries in the Region where certain crucial requirements are not mandatory. Journey and contingency plans are commonly part of the specific legislation on animal welfare during transport, as well as monitoring and evaluation of the implementation of the legal requirements concerning animal transport by the Competent Authority or other certification bodies. The presence of major gaps in budget and/or available resources and trained personnel was declared by almost half of the responding Members (21 out of 47). Concerning the awareness of the civil society regarding animal welfare issues during transport, 11 Members reported a “low” level of awareness, and they were mostly included in the areas of Southern Europe, Western and Central Asia. The greatest part of Members responding “high awareness” clustered in the Northern and Western Europe geographical areas. Members were also asked to indicate possible WOAH initiatives that could improve the implementation of the standards, and most of them suggested to develop training activities and provide additional guidance through revised and/or new standards in the Terrestrial Animal Health Code and/or through other WOAH documents.

Our hypothesis was that postnatal stress exposure or sensory input alters brain activity, which induces acetylation and/or methylation on lysine residues of histone 3 and alters methylation levels in the promoter regions of stress-related genes, ultimately resulting in long-lasting changes in the stress-response set point. Therefore, the objectives of the proposal were: 1. To identify the levels of total histone 3 acetylation and different levels of methylation on lysine 9 and/or 14 during both heat and feed stress and challenge. 2. To evaluate the methylation and acetylation levels of histone 3 lysine 9 and/or 14 at the Bdnfpromoter during both heat and feed stress and challenge. 3. To evaluate the levels of the relevant methyltransferases and transmethylases during infliction of stress. 4. To identify the specific localization of the cells which respond to both specific histone modification and the enzyme involved by applying each of the stressors in the hypothalamus. 5. To evaluate the physiological effects of antisense knockdown of Ezh2 on the stress responses. 6. To measure the level of CpG methylation in the promoter region of BDNF in thermal treatments and free-fed, 12-hour fasted, and re-fed chicks during post-natal day 3, which is the critical period for feed-control establishment, and 10 days later to evaluate longterm effects. 7. The phenotypic effect of antisense “knock down” of the transmethylaseDNMT 3a. Background: The growing demand for improvements in poultry production requires an understanding of the mechanisms governing stress responses. Two of the major stressors affecting animal welfare and hence, the poultry industry in both the U.S. and Israel, are feed intake and thermal responses. Recently, it has been shown that the regulation of energy intake and expenditure, including feed intake and thermal regulation, resides in the hypothalamus and develops during a critical post-hatch period. However, little is known about the regulatory steps involved. The hypothesis to be tested in this proposal is that epigenetic changes in the hypothalamus during post-hatch early development determine the stress-response set point for both feed and thermal stressors. The ambitious goals that were set for this proposal were met. It was established that both stressors i.e. feed and thermal stress, can be manipulated during the critical period of development at day 3 to induce resilience to stress later in life. Specifically it was established that unfavorable nutritional conditions during early developmental periods or heat exposure influences subsequent adaptability to those same stressful conditions. Furthermore it was demonstrated that epigenetic marks on the promoter of genes involved in stress memory are altered both during stress, and as a result, later in life. Specifically it was demonstrated that fasting and heat had an effect on methylation and acetylation of histone 3 at various lysine residues in the hypothalamus during exposure to stress on day 3 and during stress challenge on day 10. Furthermore, the enzymes that perform these modifications are altered both during stress conditioning and challenge. Finally, these modifications are both necessary and sufficient, since antisense "knockdown" of these enzymes affects histone modifications, and as a consequence stress resilience. DNA methylation was also demonstrated at the promoters of genes involved in heat stress regulation and long-term resilience. It should be noted that the only goal that we did not meet because of technical reasons was No. 7. In conclusion: The outcome of this research may provide information for the improvement of stress responses in high yield poultry breeds using epigenetic adaptation approaches during critical periods in the course of early development in order to improve animal welfare even under suboptimum environmental conditions.

The Gulf Islands National Seashore (GUIS) vegetation inventory project classified and mapped vegetation on park-owned lands within the administrative boundary and estimated thematic map accuracy quantitatively. The project began in June 2016. National Park Service (NPS) Vegetation Mapping Inventory Program provided technical guidance. The overall process included initial planning and scoping, imagery procurement, field data collection, data analysis, imagery interpretation/classification, accuracy assessment (AA), and report writing and database development. Initial planning and scoping meetings took place during May, 2016 in Ocean Springs, Mississippi where representatives gathered from GUIS, the NPS Gulf Coast Inventory and Monitoring Network, and Colorado State University. Primary imagery used for interpretation was 4-band (RGB and CIR) orthoimages from 2014 and 2016 with resolutions of 15 centimeters (cm) (Florida only) and 30 cm. Supplemental imagery with varying coverage across the study area included National Aerial Imagery Program 50 cm imagery for Mississippi (2016) and Florida (2017), 15 and 30 cm true color Digital Earth Model imagery for Mississippi (2016 and 2017), and current and historical true-color Google Earth and Bing Map imagery. National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration National Geodetic Survey 30 cm true color imagery from 2017 (post Hurricane Nate) supported remapping the Mississippi barrier islands after Hurricane Nate. The preliminary vegetation classification included 59 United States National Vegetation Classification (USNVC) associations. Existing vegetation and mapping data combined with vegetation plot data contributed to the final vegetation classification. Quantitative classification using hierarchical clustering and professional expertise was supported by vegetation data collected from 250 plots in 2016 and 29 plots in 2017 and 2018, as well as other observational data. The final vegetation classification includes 39 USNVC associations and 5 park special types; 18 forest and woodland, 7 shrubland, 17 herbaceous, and 2 sparse vegetation types were identified. The final GUIS map consists of 38 map classes. Land cover classes include four types: non-vegetated barren land / borrow pit, developed open space, developed low – high intensity, and water/ocean. Of the 34 vegetation map classes, 26 represent a single USNVC association/park special, six map classes contain two USNVC associations/park specials, and two map classes contain three USNVC associations/park specials. Forest and woodland associations had an abundance of sand pine (Pinus clausa), slash pine (Pinus elliottii), sand live oak (Quercus geminata), yaupon (Ilex vomitoria), wax myrtle (Morella cerifera), and saw palmetto (Serenoa repens). Shrubland associations supported dominant species such as eastern baccharis (Baccharis halimifolia), yaupon (Ilex vomitoria), wax myrtle (Morella cerifera), saw palmetto (Serenoa repens), and sand live oak (Quercus geminata). Herbaceous associations commonly included camphorweed (Heterotheca subaxillaris), needlegrass rush (Juncus roemerianus), bitter seabeach grass (Panicum amarum var. amarum), gulf bluestem (Schizachyrium maritimum), saltmeadow cordgrass (Spartina patens), and sea oats (Uniola paniculata). The final GUIS vegetation map consists of 1,268 polygons totaling 35,769.0 hectares (ha) or 88,387.2 acres (ac). Mean polygon size excluding water is 3.6 ha (8.9 ac). The most abundant land cover class is open water/ocean which accounts for approximately 31,437.7 ha (77,684.2 ac) or 87.9% of the total mapped area. Natural and ruderal vegetation consists of 4,176.8 ha (10,321.1 ac) or 11.6% of the total area. Within the natural and ruderal vegetation types, herbaceous types are the most extensive with 1945.1 ha (4,806.4 ac) or 46.5%, followed by forest and woodland types with 804.9 ha (1,989.0 ac) or 19.3%, sparse vegetation types with 726.9 ha (1,796.1 ac) or 17.4%, and shrubland types with 699.9 ha (1,729.5 ac) or 16.8%. Developed open space, which can include a matrix of roads, parking lots, park-like areas and campgrounds account for 153.8 ha (380.0 ac) or 0.43% of the total mapped area. Artificially non-vegetated barren land is rare and only accounts for 0.74 ha (1.82 ac) or 0.002% of the total area. We collected 701 AA samples to evaluate the thematic accuracy of the vegetation map. Final thematic accuracy, as a simple proportion of correct versus incorrect field calls, is 93.0%. Overall weighted map class accuracy is 93.6%, where the area of each map class was weighted in proportion to the percentage of total park area. This method provides more weight to larger map classes in the park. Each map class had an individual thematic accuracy goal of at least 80%. The hurricane impact area map class was the only class that fell below this target with an accuracy of 73.5%. The vegetation communities impacted by the hurricane are highly dynamic and regenerated quickly following the disturbance event, contributing to map class disagreement during the accuracy assessment phase. No other map classes fell below the 80% accuracy threshold. In addition to the vegetation polygon database and map, several products to support park resource management are provided including the vegetation classification, field key to the associations, local association descriptions, photographic database, project geodatabase, ArcGIS .mxd files for map posters, and aerial imagery acquired for the project. The project geodatabase links the spatial vegetation data layer to vegetation classification, plot photos, project boundary extent, AA points, and the PLOTS database. The geodatabase includes USNVC hierarchy tables allowing for spatial queries of data associated with a vegetation polygon or sample point. All geospatial products are projected using North American Datum 1983 (NAD83) in Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) Zone 16 N. The final report includes methods and results, contingency tables showing AA results, field forms, species list, and a guide to imagery interpretation. These products provide useful information to assist with management of park resources and inform future management decisions. Use of standard national vegetation classification and mapping protocols facilitates effective resource stewardship by ensuring the compatibility and widespread use throughout the NPS as well as other federal and state agencies. Products support a wide variety of resource assessments, park management and planning needs. Associated information provides a structure for framing and answering critical scientific questions about vegetation communities and their relationship to environmental processes across the landscape.

Under the United States Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Assistance to Firefighter Grant Fire Prevention and Safety Research Program, Underwriters Laboratories examined fire service concerns of photovoltaic (PV) systems. These concerns include firefighter vulnerability to electrical and casualty hazards when mitigating a fire involving photovoltaic (PV) modules systems. The need for this project is significant acknowledging the increasing use of photovoltaic systems, growing at a rate of 30% annually. As a result of greater utilization, traditional firefighter tactics for suppression, ventilation and overhaul have been complicated, leaving firefighters vulnerable to potentially unrecognized exposure. Though the electrical and fire hazards associated with electrical generation and distribution systems is well known, PV systems present unique safety considerations. A very limited body of knowledge and insufficient data exists to understand the risks to the extent that the fire service has been unable to develop safety solutions and respond in a safe manner. This fire research project developed the empirical data that is needed to quantify the hazards associated with PV installations. This data provides the foundation to modify current or develop new firefighting practices to reduce firefighter death and injury. A functioning PV array was constructed at Underwriters Laboratories in Northbrook, IL to serve as a test fixture. The main test array consisted of 26 PV framed modules rated 230 W each (5980 W total rated power). Multiple experiments were conducted to investigate the efficacy of power isolation techniques and the potential hazard from contact of typical firefighter tools with live electrical PV components. Existing fire test fixtures located at the Delaware County Emergency Services Training Center were modified to construct full scale representations of roof mounted PV systems. PV arrays were mounted above Class A roofs supported by wood trusses. Two series of experiments were conducted. The first series represented a room of content fire, extending into the attic space, breaching the roof and resulting in structural collapse. Three PV technologies were subjected to this fire condition – rack mounted metal framed, glass on polymer modules, building integrated PV shingles, and a flexible laminate attached to a standing metal seam roof. A second series of experiments was conducted on the metal frame technology. These experiments represented two fire scenarios, a room of content fire venting from a window and the ignition of debris accumulation under the array. The results of these experiments provide a technical basis for the fire service to examine their equipment, tactics, standard operating procedures and training content. Several tactical considerations were developed utilizing the data from the experiments to provide specific examples of potential electrical shock hazard from PV installations during and after a fire event.

Under the United States Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Assistance to Firefighter Grant Fire Prevention and Safety Research Program, Underwriters Laboratories examined fire service concerns of photovoltaic (PV) systems. These concerns include firefighter vulnerability to electrical and casualty hazards when mitigating a fire involving photovoltaic (PV) modules systems. The need for this project is significant acknowledging the increasing use of photovoltaic systems, growing at a rate of 30% annually. As a result of greater utilization, traditional firefighter tactics for suppression, ventilation and overhaul have been complicated, leaving firefighters vulnerable to potentially unrecognized exposure. Though the electrical and fire hazards associated with electrical generation and distribution systems is well known, PV systems present unique safety considerations. A very limited body of knowledge and insufficient data exists to understand the risks to the extent that the fire service has been unable to develop safety solutions and respond in a safe manner. This fire research project developed the empirical data that is needed to quantify the hazards associated with PV installations. This data provides the foundation to modify current or develop new firefighting practices to reduce firefighter death and injury. A functioning PV array was constructed at Underwriters Laboratories in Northbrook, IL to serve as a test fixture. The main test array consisted of 26 PV framed modules rated 230 W each (5980 W total rated power). Multiple experiments were conducted to investigate the efficacy of power isolation techniques and the potential hazard from contact of typical firefighter tools with live electrical PV components. Existing fire test fixtures located at the Delaware County Emergency Services Training Center were modified to construct full scale representations of roof mounted PV systems. PV arrays were mounted above Class A roofs supported by wood trusses. Two series of experiments were conducted. The first series represented a room of content fire, extending into the attic space, breaching the roof and resulting in structural collapse. Three PV technologies were subjected to this fire condition – rack mounted metal framed, glass on polymer modules, building integrated PV shingles, and a flexible laminate attached to a standing metal seam roof. A second series of experiments was conducted on the metal frame technology. These experiments represented two fire scenarios, a room of content fire venting from a window and the ignition of debris accumulation under the array. The results of these experiments provide a technical basis for the fire service to examine their equipment, tactics, standard operating procedures and training content. Several tactical considerations were developed utilizing the data from the experiments to provide specific examples of potential electrical shock hazard from PV installations during and after a fire event.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.