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Artykuły w czasopismach na temat „Credit cycle”

Autor: Grafiati

Data publikacji: 4 czerwca 2021

Data aktualizacji: 31 maja 2022

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1

Chang, Yuan. "Financial Soundness Indicator, Financial Cycle, Credit Cycle and Business Cycle－Evidence from Taiwan." International Journal of Economics and Finance 8, no. 4 (March 23, 2016): 166. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v8n4p166.

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<p>Business cycle is the repeated expansions (from trough to peak) and contractions (from peak to trough) of real economic activity. Credit cycle is the cyclical process of the bank credit, ranging from short/long-term, loan to enterprise and loan to individual. Financial cycle reflects ups and downs in asset prices and financial institution's balance sheet. This paper examines the linkage among cycles as well as their lead-lag relationship. Theoretically, credit cycle is one of reasons driving business cycle, and financial cycle is a fundamental cause of credit cycle. Based on Taiwan’s

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2

Aikman, David, Andrew G. Haldane, and Benjamin D. Nelson. "Curbing the Credit Cycle." Economic Journal 125, no. 585 (March 26, 2014): 1072–109. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12113.

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3

Gootzeit, Michael J. "WICKSELL'S INFLATIONARY CREDIT CYCLE." Metroeconomica 44, no. 2 (June 1993): 146–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-999x.1993.tb00756.x.

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4

Bluhm, Christian, and Walter Mussil. "Balanced Credit Cycle Management." Schmalenbachs Zeitschrift für betriebswirtschaftliche Forschung 62, S61 (January 2010): 68–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf03372982.

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Mamonov, Mikhail, Vera Pankova, Renat Akhmetov, and Anna Pestova. "Financial Shocks and Credit Cycles." Russian Journal of Money and Finance 79, no. 4 (December 2020): 45–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.31477/rjmf.202004.45.

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This paper compares the contribution of internal and external financial shocks to the formation of credit cycle phases using cross- country quarterly data for 27 countries, including advanced and emerging economies, for the period from 1990 through 2019. To conduct comparative analysis, we apply IV Probit models of the credit cycle which take into account the relationship between the credit and business cycles the inertia of the cycles and the non-linearity of the transmission of internal and external financial shocks to the economy through the credit market. In our sample of countries, the tr

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6

Karminsky, A. M., and N. F. Dyachkova. "Empirical study of the relationship between credit cycles and changes in credit ratings." Journal of the New Economic Association 48, no. 4 (2020): 138–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.31737/2221-2264-2020-48-4-6.

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The purpose of this study is to identify relationships between changes in ratings and the impact of credit cycles on them. The following methodology was used: we built up an applied statistical probit-model of multiple-choice to determine ratings changes. Our model includes a credit gap indicator for assessing the impact of the credit cycle. Our empirical research also includes a review of the time changes in the ratings during a ten-year period for developed and developing countries. The results of our study show that credit ratings are not only affected by cyclical changes within the credit

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7

Lin, Xi, Yafeng Yin, and Fang He. "Credit-Based Mobility Management Considering Travelers’ Budgeting Behaviors Under Uncertainty." Transportation Science 55, no. 2 (March 2021): 297–314. http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/trsc.2020.1014.

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This study analyzes the performance of a credit-based mobility management scheme considering travelers’ budgeting behaviors for credit consumption under uncertainty. In the scheme, government agencies periodically distribute a certain number of credits to travelers; travelers must pay a credit charge for driving to complete their trips. Otherwise, they can take public transit free of credit charge. Consequently, within a credit-releasing cycle, travelers must budget their credit consumption to fulfill their mobility needs. Such budgeting behaviors can be viewed as a multistage decision-making

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8

Widodo, Arif. "THE ROLE OF INTEGRATED ISLAMIC COMMERCIAL AND SOCIAL FINANCE FOR CURBING CREDIT CYCLES AND ACHIEVING MACROPRUDENTIAL OBJECTIVE." Journal of Islamic Monetary Economics and Finance 3, no. 2 (March 28, 2018): 139–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.21098/jimf.v3i2.887.

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 It is widely believed that Islamic finance is inherently stable since the principle of risk-sharing and linking the financial to real counterpart in particular through its social finance are applied, hence the financial stability may successfully be attained. If mimicking the conventional finance, Islamic model will probably be facing instability, following the financial cycle. There has been a growing literature discussing credit cycle in mainstream perspective since 2008 global financial crash. However, it is quite rare to find study, in macro context, on credit cycles and the effecti

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9

King, Matt. "Is the Credit Cycle Dead?" CFA Institute Conference Proceedings Quarterly 24, no. 1 (March 2007): 45–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.2469/cp.v24.n1.4542.

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10

Emery, Dana M. "Credit Analysis throughout the Cycle." CFA Institute Conference Proceedings Quarterly 30, no. 2 (June 2013): 31–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.2469/cp.v30.n2.2.

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11

Gelain, Paolo, Kevin J. Lansing, and Gisle James Natvik. "Leaning Against the Credit Cycle." Journal of the European Economic Association 16, no. 5 (December 13, 2017): 1350–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvx043.

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12

Criste, Adina, Iulia Lupu, and Radu Lupu. "Coherence and Entropy of Credit Cycles across the Euro Area Candidate Countries." Entropy 23, no. 9 (September 14, 2021): 1213. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/e23091213.

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The pattern of financial cycles in the European Union has direct impacts on financial stability and economic sustainability in view of adoption of the euro. The purpose of the article is to identify the degree of coherence of credit cycles in the countries potentially seeking to adopt the euro with the credit cycle inside the Eurozone. We first estimate the credit cycles in the selected countries and in the euro area (at the aggregate level) and filter the series with the Hodrick–Prescott filter for the period 1999Q1–2020Q4. Based on these values, we compute the indicators that define the cred

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13

Altman, Edward I., and Brenda J. Kuehne. "Credit markets and bubbles: is the benign credit cycle over?" Economics and Business Review 2 (16), no. 3 (September 30, 2016): 20–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.18559/ebr.2016.3.3.

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14

López-Salido, David, Jeremy C. Stein, and Egon Zakrajšek. "Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle*." Quarterly Journal of Economics 132, no. 3 (May 2, 2017): 1373–426. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjx014.

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Abstract Using U.S. data from 1929 to 2015, we show that elevated credit-market sentiment in year t − 2 is associated with a decline in economic activity in years t and t + 1. Underlying this result is the existence of predictable mean reversion in credit-market conditions. When credit risk is aggressively priced, spreads subsequently widen. The timing of this widening is, in turn, closely tied to the onset of a contraction in economic activity. Exploring the mechanism, we find that buoyant credit-market sentiment in year t − 2 also forecasts a change in the composition of external finance: ne

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15

Irawan, Denny, and Febrio Kacaribu. "TRI-CYCLES ANALYSIS ON BANK PERFORMANCE: PANEL VAR APPROACH." Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan 19, no. 4 (July 7, 2017): 403–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v19i4.694.

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The previous financial crisis has revealed the importance of risk in the financial and business cycle within the economy. This paper examines relationship among three cycles in the economy, namely (i) business cycle macro risk, (ii) credit cycle and (iii) risk cycle, and their impacts toward individual bank performance. We examine the responses of individual bank credit cycle and risk cycle toward a shock in business cycle macro risk and its consequence to the bank performance. We use Indonesian data for period of 2005q1 to 2014q4. We use unbalanced panel data of individual banks’ balance shee

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16

Gilchrist, Simon, and Egon Zakrajšek. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations." American Economic Review 102, no. 4 (June 1, 2012): 1692–720. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.102.4.1692.

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Using micro-level data, we construct a credit spread index with considerable predictive power for future economic activity. We decompose the credit spread into a component that captures firm-specific information on expected defaults and a residual component–– the excess bond premium. Shocks to the excess bond premium that are orthogonal to the current state of the economy lead to declines in economic activity and asset prices. An increase in the excess bond premium appears to reflect a reduction in the risk-bearing capacity of the financial sector, which induces a contraction in the supply of

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17

Rodano, Giacomo, Nicolas Serrano-Velarde, and Emanuele Tarantino. "Lending Standards over the Credit Cycle." Review of Financial Studies 31, no. 8 (April 24, 2018): 2943–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhy023.

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18

Caja, Anisa, and Frédéric Planchet. "Modeling Cycle Dependence in Credit Insurance." Risks 2, no. 1 (March 14, 2014): 74–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/risks2010074.

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19

Jin, Yi, and Zhixiong Zeng. "MONEY, CREDIT, AND BUSINESS CYCLE COMOVEMENT." Pacific Economic Review 14, no. 2 (April 21, 2009): 275–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0106.2009.00443.x.

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20

Ielpo, Florian. "Equity, credit and the business cycle." Applied Financial Economics 22, no. 12 (February 9, 2012): 939–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09603107.2011.631891.

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21

Borsi, Mihály Tamás. "Fiscal multipliers across the credit cycle." Journal of Macroeconomics 56 (June 2018): 135–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2018.01.004.

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22

Stein, Jeremy C. "Can Policy Tame the Credit Cycle?" IMF Economic Review 69, no. 1 (January 22, 2021): 5–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/s41308-020-00125-1.

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23

Tatarici, Luminita. "Financial cycle. How does it look like in Romania?" Proceedings of the International Conference on Applied Statistics 1, no. 1 (October 1, 2019): 473–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/icas-2019-0041.

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Abstract The paper aims to identify the main characteristics of the financial cycle for Romania using both the classical and growth cycle approaches. The turning point methodology represents the classical approach, while a band-pass filter is applied to capture the growth cycle. First, the paper assesses the significance of the medium-term cyclical component and finds that its importance increased since 2000s. The second purpose is to identify the relevant variables for the construction of a composite measure of the financial cycle. The results reveal that total credit and real estate prices a

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24

Scharnagl, Michael, and Martin Mandler. "Real and Financial Cycles in Euro Area Economies: Results from Wavelet Analysis." Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik 239, no. 5-6 (September 25, 2019): 895–916. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/jbnst-2019-0035.

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Abstract We study the within-country dimension of financial cycles in the four largest euro area economies using tools from wavelet analysis. We focus on credit and house price cycles which are most commonly used to represent the financial cycle. With the exception of Germany, the variables contain important common cycles within each country close to the upper bound of business cycle length and beyond which can be interpreted as financial cycles. These cycles are closely linked to domestic cycles in real activity showing financial and real economic cycles as interconnected phenomena. For these

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25

Li, Tinghui, Junhao Zhong, and Mark Xu. "Does the Credit Cycle Have an Impact on Happiness?" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 1 (December 26, 2019): 183. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17010183.

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The 2008 international financial crisis triggered a heated discussion of the relationship between public health and the economic environment. We test the relationship between the credit cycle and happiness using the fixed effects model and explore the transmission channels between them by adding the moderating effect. The results show the following empirical regularities. First, the credit cycle has a negative correlation with happiness. This means that credit growth will reduce the overall happiness score in a country/region. Second, the transmission channels between the credit cycle and happ

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26

Saini, Seema, Wasim Ahmad, and Stelios Bekiros. "Understanding the credit cycle and business cycle dynamics in India." International Review of Economics & Finance 76 (November 2021): 988–1006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2021.08.006.

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27

Podrugina, A. V. "Tightening Financial Regulation: The Impact on the Credit Cycle in the USA." World of new economy 12, no. 3 (June 3, 2019): 68–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.26794/2220-6469-2018-12-3-68-81.

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The credit cycle is one of the most important elements of the business cycle. Credit expansion after the crisis is one of the key ways of economic recovery. The tightening of financial regulation in response to the crisis of 2007–2008 largely slowed down the credit expansion phase and was reflected in an abnormally prolonged phase of credit contraction for the non-financial private sector. The normal course of the credit cycle was disrupted by the increased demands of Basel III and the reform of theUSAfinancial system. The credit cycle after the crisis of 2007–2008 differs from previous crises

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28

Cholewiński, Jarosław. "The Phenomenon of Speculative Bubble in the Light of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory." Equilibrium 4, no. 1 (June 30, 2010): 51–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.12775/equil.2010.004.

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The article presents the modern interpretation of the Austrian business cycle theory and the look at the phenomenon of economic bubble through the lens of that theory. The aim of the article is to answer the question ‘What is the main cause of economic bubbles’. The author suggests that it is a depiction which integrates cyclical fluctuations induced by credit expansion with the phenomenon of speculative bubble. Capital-based macroeconomics proposed by Garrison can become a core of universal economic theorizing. The model presented by the author shows how credit expansion that decreases intere

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29

Gross, Tal, Matthew J. Notowidigdo, and Jialan Wang. "The Marginal Propensity to Consume over the Business Cycle." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 12, no. 2 (April 1, 2020): 351–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.20160287.

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We estimate how the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of liquidity varies over the business cycle. Ten years after a Chapter 7 bankruptcy, the bankruptcy flag is removed from the filer’s credit report, generating an increase in credit score. In the year following flag removal, credit card limits increase by $778 and credit card balances increase by $290, implying an MPC of 0.37. Using cohorts of flag removals, we find that the MPC was 20 to 30 percent higher during the Great Recession, increased during the 2001 recession, and is positively correlated with the local unemployment rate. (J

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30

Lopez-Salido, David, Jeremy C. Stein, and Egon Zakrajsek. "Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle." Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015, no. 028 (May 6, 2015): 1–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/feds.2015.028.

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31

Egan, Sean J. "The Next Phase of the Credit Cycle." CFA Institute Conference Proceedings Quarterly 26, no. 1 (March 2009): 16–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.2469/cp.v26.n1.3.

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32

Kubin, Ingrid, Thomas O. Zörner, Laura Gardini, and Pasquale Commendatore. "A credit cycle model with market sentiments." Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 50 (September 2019): 159–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2019.06.006.

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33

Amromin, Gene, Neil Bhutta, and Benjamin J. Keys. "Refinancing, Monetary Policy, and the Credit Cycle." Annual Review of Financial Economics 12, no. 1 (November 1, 2020): 67–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-financial-012720-120430.

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We assess the complicated reality of monetary policy transmission through mortgage markets by synthesizing the existing literature on the role of refinancing in policy implementation. After briefly reviewing mortgage market institutions in the USA and documenting refinance activity over time, we summarize the links between refinancing and consumption and describe the frictions impeding the refinancing channel. The review draws heavily on research emerging from the experience of the financial crisis of 2008–2009, as it highlights a combination of market, institutional, and policy-making factors

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34

Chen, Xiaoshan, Alexandros Kontonikas, and Alberto Montagnoli. "Asset prices, credit and the business cycle." Economics Letters 117, no. 3 (December 2012): 857–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2012.08.040.

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35

Annicchiarico, Barbara, Silvia Surricchio, and Robert J. Waldmann. "A behavioral model of the credit cycle." Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 166 (October 2019): 53–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2019.09.010.

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36

Hessou, Helyoth, and Van Son Lai. "Basel III capital buffers and Canadian credit unions lending: Impact of the credit cycle and the business cycle." International Review of Financial Analysis 57 (May 2018): 23–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2018.01.009.

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37

Herkenhoff, Kyle F. "The Impact of Consumer Credit Access on Unemployment." Review of Economic Studies 86, no. 6 (February 7, 2019): 2605–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdz006.

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Abstract Unemployed households’ access to unsecured revolving credit more than tripled over the last three decades. This article analyses how both cyclical fluctuations and trend increases in credit access impact the business cycle. The main quantitative result is that credit expansions and contractions have contributed to moderately deeper and more protracted recessions over the last 40 years. As more individuals obtained credit from 1977 to 2010, cyclical credit fluctuations affected a larger share of the population and became more important determinants of employment dynamics. Even though b

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38

Akinsola, Foluso Abioye, and Sylvanus Ikhide. "Is commercial bank lending in South Africa procyclical?" Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance 26, no. 2 (May 14, 2018): 203–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jfrc-09-2016-0073.

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PurposeThis paper aims to examine the relationship between commercial bank lending and business cycle in South Africa. This paper attempts to know whether commercial bank lending in South Africa is procyclical.Design/methodology/approachThe model assumed that the lending behaviour is related to the business cycle. In this study, vector error correction model (VECM) is used to capture the relationship between bank lending and business cycle to accurately elicit the macroeconomic long-run relationship between business cycle and bank lending, as some banks might slow down bank lending due to some

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39

Fieberg, Christian, Richard Lennart Mertens, and Thorsten Poddig. "The relevance of credit ratings over the business cycle." Journal of Risk Finance 17, no. 2 (March 21, 2016): 152–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jrf-08-2015-0079.

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Purpose Credit market models and the microstructure theory of the ratings market suggest that information provided by credit rating agencies becomes more relevant in recessions when agency costs are high and less relevant in expansions when agency costs are low. The purpose of this paper is to empirically test these hypotheses with regard to equity markets. Design/methodology/approach The authors use business cycle identification algorithms to map rating events (credit rating changes and watchlist inclusions) to business cycle phases and apply the event study methodology. The results are backe

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40

Bianchi, Javier. "Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle." American Economic Review 101, no. 7 (December 1, 2011): 3400–3426. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.101.7.3400.

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Credit constraints linking debt to market-determined prices embody a systemic credit externality that drives a wedge between competitive and constrained socially optimal equilibria, inducing private agents to overborrow. This externality arises because private agents fail to internalize the financial amplification effects of carrying a large amount of debt when credit constraints bind. We conduct a quantitative analysis of this externality in a two-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of a small open economy calibrated to emerging markets. Raising the cost of borrowing du

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41

Rötheli, Tobias F. "Oligopolistic Banks, Bounded Rationality, and the Credit Cycle." Economics Research International 2012 (July 19, 2012): 1–4. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2012/961316.

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This paper studies how boundedly rational default expectations affect the credit cycle. I propose a simple model of oligopolistic bank competition which serves to compare situations with just a portion of boundedly rational banks to situations where either all banks are rational or all banks are boundedly rational. When all banks are boundedly rational, the credit cycle is most amplified relative to the situation where all banks are rational. However, the amplifying effect of bounded rationality on the side of banks largely remains even when only a portion of banks are boundedly rational. Henc

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42

Mouatt, Simon. "Credit cycles: freewheeling, driving or driven?" International Journal of Social Economics 42, no. 7 (July 13, 2015): 629–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijse-01-2014-0002.

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Purpose – The discourse on credit cycles has been reinvigorated following the global crisis. The purpose of this paper is to contrast the positions of mainstream, Marxist, Austrian and post-Keynesian (PK) schools of thought on these matters. It is posited that most notions underplay the significance of real economy factors in shaping the fluctuations of credit levels and relations. It is argued these ideas are best illustrated by Marx (as interpreted by the Temporal Single System Interpretation) and tendency for the profit rate to fall with accumulation. Empirical evidence on the UK profit rat

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Canto-Cuevas, Francisco-Javier, María-José Palacín-Sánchez, and Filippo Di Pietro. "Trade Credit as a Sustainable Resource during an SME’s Life Cycle." Sustainability 11, no. 3 (January 28, 2019): 670. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11030670.

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Inadequate access to finance for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) can present a major impediment to SMEs’ contribution towards driving sustainable economic growth. The aim of this article is to investigate the role of life cycle on SME financing decisions while focusing on trade credit. To this end, we study whether trade credit and its firm-factor determinants differ depending on the stage of life cycle of the SMEs. For the empirical analysis, a sample is employed of manufacturing SMEs operating in 12 European Union countries over the period 2008–2014 and a panel data model with fixe

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44

Bernstein, James, Leroi Raputsoana, and Eric Schaling. "Credit procyclicality and financial regulation in South Africa." South African Journal of Economic and Management Sciences 19, no. 4 (November 25, 2016): 467–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.4102/sajems.v19i4.1244.

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This study assesses the behaviour of credit extension over the business cycle in South Africa for the period 2000 to 2012. This is motivated by the proposal of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision to look at credit extension over the business cycle as a reference guide for implementing countercyclical capital buffers for financial institutions. The study finds that credit extension in South increases during the trough phase, while the relationship between credit extension and the business cycle becomes insignificant during the peak phase. The study also finds that credit extension decrea

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45

Gao, Ge, Xinmin Liu, Huijun Sun, Jianjun Wu, Haiqing Liu, Wei (Walker) Wang, Zhen Wang, Tao Wang, and Haoming Du. "Marginal Cost Pricing Analysis on Tradable Credits in Traffic Engineering." Mathematical Problems in Engineering 2019 (January 13, 2019): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/8461395.

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This paper tries to explore a more applicable tradable credit scheme for managing network mobility from the angle of marginal cost pricing. The classic mathematical model-Cobweb model is used to analyze the stability of credit price. It is found that credit price is not always convergent in the trading market. It will show convergence, divergence, two-period simple behaviors, and even more complex dynamic behaviors, such as cycle movements and chaos. Considering the applicability and public goods character of tradable credits scheme, one public pricing mechanism- marginal cost pricing is explo

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46

Rötheli, Tobias F. "Boundedly rational banks’ contribution to the credit cycle." Journal of Socio-Economics 41, no. 5 (October 2012): 730–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.socec.2012.07.005.

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47

Guha, Debashis, and Lorene Hiris. "The aggregate credit spread and the business cycle." International Review of Financial Analysis 11, no. 2 (January 2002): 219–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s1057-5219(02)00075-3.

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Zhang, Xing, Fengchao Li, Zhen Li, and Yingying Xu. "Macroprudential Policy, Credit Cycle, and Bank Risk-Taking." Sustainability 10, no. 10 (October 10, 2018): 3620. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su10103620.

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This paper constructs a theoretical model to analyze the effect of macroprudential policies (MPPs) on bank risk-taking. We collect a data set of 231 commercial banks in China to empirically test whether macroprudential tools, including countercyclical capital buffers, reserve requirements, and caps on loan-to-value, can affect bank risk-taking behaviors by using the dynamic unbalanced panel system generalized method of moment (SYS-GMM). The results provide further evidence on the important role of MPPs in maintaining financial stability, which helps mitigate financial system vulnerabilities. B

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Ielpo, Florian. "Forecasting the European Credit Cycle Using Macroeconomic Variables." Journal of Forecasting 32, no. 3 (December 5, 2011): 226–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/for.1266.

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Bahadir, Berrak, and Neven Valev. "INSTITUTIONS, HOUSEHOLD CREDIT COMPOSITION, AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE." Economic Inquiry 58, no. 3 (March 22, 2020): 1401–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12885.

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