Thematische Bibliographien / Age of uncertainty

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Auswahl der wissenschaftlichen Literatur zum Thema „Age of uncertainty“

Autor: Grafiati

Veröffentlicht am 4. Juni 2021

Zuletzt aktualisiert am 3. Februar 2022

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Zeitschriftenartikel zum Thema "Age of uncertainty"

Buchan, James. „Age of uncertainty“. Nursing Standard 31, Nr. 40 (31.05.2017): 30. http://dx.doi.org/10.7748/ns.31.40.30.s26.

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Geoghegan, Peter. „The Age of Uncertainty“. Political Insight 12, Nr. 1 (24.02.2021): 3. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/20419058211000993.

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Makriyannis, Christos, Robert J. Johnston und Adam W. Whelchel. „Are Choice Experiment Treatments of Outcome Uncertainty Sufficient? An Application to Climate Risk Reductions“. Agricultural and Resource Economics Review 47, Nr. 3 (10.04.2018): 419–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/age.2017.27.

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Choice experiments addressing outcome uncertainty (OU) typically reframe continuous probability densities for each risky outcome into two discrete categories, each with a single probability of occurrence. The implications of this simplification for welfare estimation are unknown. This article evaluates the convergent validity of willingness-to-pay (WTP) estimates from a more accurate multiple-outcome treatment of OU, compared to the two-outcome approach. Results for a case study of coastal flood adaptation in Connecticut, United States, suggest that higher-resolution OU treatments increase choice complexity but can provide additional information on risk preferences and WTP. This tradeoff highlights challenges facing the valuation of uncertain outcomes.

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COEN, DAVID, und ALASDAIR ROBERTS. „A New Age of Uncertainty“. Governance 25, Nr. 1 (27.12.2011): 5–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0491.2011.01559.x.

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Melleuish, Gregory. „Understanding an “Age of Uncertainty”“. Australian Journal of Politics & History 41, Nr. 1 (07.04.2008): 130–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8497.1995.tb01341.x.

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Sharma, Bijay P., Seong-Hoon Cho und Chad M. Hellwinckel. „Optimal Budget Allocations for Protected Area Acquisition To Store Carbon in a Local Community Under Economic Growth Uncertainty“. Agricultural and Resource Economics Review 49, Nr. 2 (03.06.2020): 209–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/age.2020.10.

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We analyze optimal budget allocations to acquire protected areas for carbon storage while balancing risk and return from protection under economic growth uncertainty in a local community. Our study is the first to explore how risk of uncertain economic growth affects cost of protected area acquisition using real estate values at the parcel level, enabling us to estimate the site-specific opportunity cost of carbon storage. The Pareto optimal trade-off frontier between the expected carbon storage benefit and its variance provides a continuum of risk-return combinations. The pattern of the trade-off relationship implies that risk mitigation is less costly in terms of foregone expected benefit when risk is higher than when it is lower. Our results also find that the difference in cluster-specific budget allocations between the strong economic growth scenario and the weak economic growth scenario subsequently decreases between the point of expected benefit maximization and the point of variance minimization. Our findings of optimal hectares of land for protected area acquisition for carbon storage and corresponding benefits and costs serve as an empirically informed knowledge base to help a local community prioritize acquisition of potential protected areas for carbon storage under economic growth uncertainty.

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Ando, Amy, Aparna Howlader und Mindy Mallory. „Diversifying to Reduce Conservation Outcome Uncertainty in Multiple Environmental Objectives“. Agricultural and Resource Economics Review 47, Nr. 2 (21.05.2018): 220–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/age.2018.7.

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In this paper we develop tools and intuition for portfolio optimization for multiple conservation objectives. We show it is more efficient to optimize a conservation portfolio for multiple goods jointly, allowing planners to exploit information about multiple dimensions of correlations between goods. We identified a new type of correlation that is important for optimal conservation planning of multiple objectives under uncertainty: scenario correlation between objectives in a given part of the landscape. The conservation planner faces a different kind of problem if the objectives at hand respond similarly rather than differently to climate shocks in subregions of the planning area.

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MacEntee, Michael I., und Kavita R. Mathu-Muju. „Confronting dental uncertainty in old age“. Gerodontology 31 (21.01.2014): 37–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ger.12109.

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Li, Xueyan, und Chunxiao Zhang. „Delayed Age Replacement Policy with Uncertain Lifetime“. Mathematical Problems in Engineering 2015 (2015): 1–6. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/528726.

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This paper considers the delayed age replacement policy, in which the lifetimes of all units are assumed to be uncertain variables, and the lifetime of the first unit has an uncertainty distribution which is different from the others. A delayed age replacement model which is concerned with finding the optimal replacement time to minimize the expected cost is developed. In the policy, the optimal replacement time is irrelevant to the uncertain distribution of lifetime of the first unit over the infinite time span.

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NOVAK, J., C. JONES und R. HALL. „Political advocacy in an age of uncertainty“. Journal of Pediatric Health Care 16, Nr. 1 (Januar 2002): 44–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0891-5245(02)40404-x.

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Dissertationen zum Thema "Age of uncertainty"

Williams, Alexander. „Complexity & hegemony : technical politics in an age of uncertainty“. Thesis, University of East London, 2015. http://roar.uel.ac.uk/4773/.

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This thesis investigates the problematic of social and political complexity. It attempts to answer the question of how power operates in a world of complex and globalised social, political, and economic systems. The basic claims of the thesis are as follows. Firstly, we can find the tools to understand social complexity in complexity theory. In turn, the conceptual innovations of complexity theory can be deployed to rethink the pre-existing political theoretical tradition of hegemony. We argue that the most significant existing theories of hegemony have been produced in relation to moments of increasing real world social complexity, and that there exists an under-developed seam of thinking already within the tradition which evokes key concepts from complexity theory. Therefore, the flaws in existing theories of hegemony can be remedied by conceptualising the complexity of hegemony in a rigorous way using the formal resources of complexity theory. To do so, the thesis first defines the necessary conditions for and properties of complex systems, as investigated by complexity science. It then outlines a general theory of social and political complexity. It develops an original reading of Gramscian hegemony, while critically appraising Laclau and Mouffe’s articulatory variant of the concept. It then brings together insights from the field of complexity theory to rethink the basic concepts of hegemony, before applying the theory to the investigation of the persistence of Neoliberalism after the 2008 financial crisis. In so doing, it establishes the grounds for a new theory of complex hegemony, reworking existing political theory to better explain the complex dynamics of our contemporary world.

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Mignault, David. „Cutting grass, the uncertainty of coming of age in the post-Fordist era“. Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 2000. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk2/ftp01/MQ54515.pdf.

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Hughes, Jennifer S. „Performance in a time of terror : Critical mimesis and the age of uncertainty“. Thesis, University of Manchester, 2009. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.516436.

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In recent years, the contexts in which performances are made have been marked by a global conflict termed a 'war on terror'. The insecurity that this conflict instituted across local and global space intensified anxieties concomitant with a historical period that Zygmunt Bauman has called an 'age of uncertainty'. This thesis draws on the work of Bauman and other political theorists, most notably Giorgio Agamben, to investigate the politics of performance in an age of uncertainty. Following a review of contemporary scholarship exploring the politics of performance, the thesis examines a series of performances that have responded to or otherwise participated in wars on terror. These include: the performed violence of a beheading, the resurgence of 'political theatre' on the London stage and antiwar protest performances during the Iraq war (2003-2008). In addition, the thesis investigates community-based counterterrorism performances in neighbourhoods in the UK targeted as hotspots of terrorist activity following the suicide attacks in London on 7th July 2005. As part of these investigations, a study of the 'war against terrorism' in Northern Ireland (1969-1998), particularly focussing on the counterinsurgency's use of performance as a strategy and tactic of war, highlights the historical continuity of coalitions of performance, crisis and wars on terror. The term 'critical mimesis' is used to generate the conceptual terrain by which the politics of these performances are examined, in particular, to explore how they mirror, reproduce and resist crisis. Motifs of 'refusal' and 'waste' are repeatedly identified as important to the aesthetics and politics of these performances, and comprise the grounds for the thesis' conceptual contribution to understanding a politics of performance in an age of uncertainty. Firstly, the thesis progresses an understanding of performance's political potential as residing in practices of waste. Secondly, this highlights a shift in the focus of politically conscious performance, which moves from concerns for the 'radical' in performance, to reclaiming a conservative ethic and aesthetic as part of performance's radical project. As such, critical mimesis in performance during an age of uncertainty might be understood by means of recourse to concepts of conservation, waste, salvage and restoration, rather than radical excess, transformation or transgression.

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Lin, Zihan. „Context Informed Statistics in Two Cases: Age Standardization and Risk Minimization“. Thesis, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/38327.

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When faced with death counts strati ed by age, analysts often calculate a crude mortality rate (CMR) as a single summary measure. This is done by simply dividing total death counts by total population counts. However, the crude mortality rate is not appropriate for comparing different populations due to the significant impact of age on mortality and the possibility of having different age structures for different populations. While a set of age-adjustment methods seeks to collapse age-specific mortality rates into a single measure that is free from the confounding effect of age structure, we focus on one of these methods called "direct age-standardization" method which summarizes and compares age-specific mortality rates by adopting a reference population. While qualitative insights in relation to age-standardization are often discussed, we seek to approximate age-standardized mortality rate of a population based on the corresponding CMR and the 90th quantile of its population distribution. This approximation is most useful when age-specific mortality data is unavailable. In addition, we provide quantitative insights related to age-standardization. We derive our model based on mathematical insights drawn from the explication of exact calculations and validate our model by using empirical data for a large number of countries under a large number of circumstances. We also extend the application of our approximation model to other age-standardized mortality indicators such as cause-specific mortality rate and potential years of life lost. In the second part of the thesis, we consider the formulation of a general risk management procedure, where risk needs to be measured and further mitigated. The formulation admits an optimization representation and requires as input the distributional information about the underlying risk factors. Unfortunately, for most risk factors it is known to be difficult to identify their distribution in full details, and more problematically the risk management procedure can be prone to errors in the input distribution. In particular, one of the most important distribution information is the covariance hat captures the spread and correlation among risk factors. We study the issue of covariance uncertainty in the problem of mitigating tail risk and by admitting an uncertainty set of covariance of risk factors, we propose a robust optimization model which minimizes risk for the worst scenario especially when data is insufficient and the number of risk factors is large. We will then transform our model into a computationally solvable one and test the model using real-world data.

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Kelly, Peter, und pkelly@deakin edu au. „Risk and the Regulation of Youth(ful) Identities in an Age of Manufactured Uncertainty“. Deakin University. Bowater School of Management and Marketing, 1998. http://tux.lib.deakin.edu.au./adt-VDU/public/adt-VDU20031212.114212.

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The Question(s) of Youth, of what to do with them, of how to school them, or police them, or regulate them, or house them, or employ them, or prevent them from becoming involved in any number of Risky (sexual, eating, drug (ab)using or peer cultural) practices are questions which have a substantial historical aspect. In the Liberal Democracies at the end of the millennium the Crisis of Youth (at-Risk) is a key marker in theoretical, political and popular debates about Youth. This thesis explores the 'conditions of possibility' which enable discourses of Youth at-Risk to function as true (Henriques et al 1984). I argue that the truth of Youth at-Risk rehearses, in part, the historical truths of Youth as Delinquent, Deviant and Disadvantaged. I will also argue that a historically novel aspect of the truth of Youth at-Risk is that, potentially, every behaviour, every practice, every group of Youth can be constructed in terms of Risk. This thesis is not about the practices, behaviours and dispositions of young people. Rather, my concern is with the ways in which institutionally structured processes of expert knowledge production construct the truths of Youth (at-Risk). The thesis is concerned with the processes by which these largely autonomous systems of expert knowledge production are constitutive of both the 'institutional reflexivity' which characterises contemporary settings, and the forms of identity which emerge in these settings (Giddens 1994 c). I am also concerned with the ways in which these systems of expertise mobilise categories of Risk in diverse attempts to regulate the behaviours and dispositions of certain populations of young people under the conditions of 'reflexive modernization' (Beck, Giddens & Lash 1994). The thesis argues for a productive convergence between theories of reflexive modernization and governmentality. This convergence enables Youth at-Risk to be examined at two (interconnected) levels. In the first instance Risk is understood as constituting a metanarrative in an Age of Manufactured Uncertainty. In the second instance the identification of Risk factors and populations at-Risk will be understood as techniques mobilised in diverse attempts to 'make up' rational, choice making, autonomous, responsible citizens within (Neo)Liberal projects of government (Rose 1996). Foucault's (1991) theory of governmentality foregrounds the practices and relations implicated in the processes whereby 'human beings are made into subjects' (Foucault 1983). Governmentality is a useful and strategic analytic for understanding the diverse attempts by various experts and centres of expertise to regulate young people's identity through the construction of populations of Youth at-Risk. Processes of reflexive modernization are marked by the emergence of a degree of collective awareness that our contemporary conditions of existence are characterised by the thoroughgoing penetration of the social and the natural by reflexive human knowledge. Such a situation leads, not to a position in 'which collectively we are the masters [sic] of our destiny'; but rather to a series of settings in which we are confronted with the possibility that, as a 'consequence of our own doings', the future becomes 'very threatening' (Beck, Giddens & Lash 1994). In problematising the truth of Youth at-Risk this thesis will also engage with various problematisations of Left (critical) intellectual and political practices in domains which take Youth as their object. This thesis is explicitly located in the space of 'critical' (Educational) scholarship in Anglo settings which is structured, historically, by the 'European Marxist social philosophy' of the Frankfurt School and Gramscian (British) Cultural Studies, and French and Italian Feminism and Post (Structuralism and Modernism) (Popkewitz and Brennan 1997). The thesis argues that in order to problematise the truth of Youth at-Risk it is necessary, also, to problematise the processes of truth production mobilised from the Left in an engagement with the material and discursive realities which enable Youth at-Risk to function as a truth. Examining the truth of Youth at-Risk in the frameworks enabled by a convergence of theories of reflexive modernization and governmentality is a contribution to the processes of rethinking the intellectual and political positions which the Left might mobilise at the end of the millennium, when, as Beck (1994 ) argues, 'uncertainty returns'. I will argue that Left intellectual and political practice has no choice but to be open to the uncertain nature of truth telling which characterises processes of reflexive modernization. The tensions generated within these processes are not resolvable. Nor should the 'return of uncertainty' be seen as immobilising in the context of political and intellectual practice. The thesis argues that theories of reflexive modernization and governmentality highlight the dangers of intellectual and political positions which invest heavily in 'modernity's war on ambivalence' (Bauman 1990 b). In settings where the practices and activities of expertise have so thoroughly penetrated the natural and the social, where these processes of colonisation have resulted in the 'return of uncertainty', then the practices and activities of expertise promise, paradoxically, to 'exterminate ambivalence' by telling the truths of Youth at-Risk (Bauman 1990 b). This thesis argues that in an Age of Manufactured Uncertainty the mobilisation of rationally grounded Risk discourses in attempts to regulate Youth emerges as a paradoxical, and dangerous, Quest for Certainty (Bauman 1990 a).

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Rosinski, Benjamin. „The role of entrepreneurship and uncertainty with reward-based crowdfunding in the digital age“. Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Industriell teknik, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-355310.

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Crowdfunding is a transformative service innovation, a novel and revolutionary way for entrepreneurs to obtain funding for their start-up ventures. This study explores the phenomenon of reward-based crowdfunding in relation to entrepreneurial behaviour and decision-making, as well as the relationship between the entrepreneur and the community. Following a case-study approach, the phenomenon is described based on existing literature and collected empirics from five qualitative in-depth interviews with entrepreneurs performing on Kickstarter. The findings of this study reveal, that reward-based crowdfunding reveals several mechanisms, which attract entrepreneurs to execute their activities and deal with uncertainty in a safer way. These activities refer to (1) independency from traditional investors, (2) creative and effectual reasoning at affordable loss, (3) extending the entrepreneur’s social network via the internet, and (4) utilizing web-based platforms for co-creation of marketing, communication, product design, and brand development. This may lead to adapted forms of entrepreneurship in the future.

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Chilvers, Jason David. „Participatory environmental risk policy-making in an age of uncertainty : UK actor-networks, social learning and effective practice“. Thesis, University College London (University of London), 2004. http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1446652/.

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This thesis aims to explore aspects of the democratisation of science within the UK. It does this through focusing on the analytic-deliberative practice of participatory risk appraisal (PRA), which emphasises the active involvement of citizens and stakeholders in the framing, assessing, and evaluation stages of complex and uncertain environmental risk policy processes. This was achieved by following professional actors (comprising process-experts, scientific-experts, and decision-makers) through networks currently building around PRA practice across the UK more generally, and in the area of radioactive waste specifically. Analysis shows that professional actors can be seen to belong to an epistemic community comprised of a core group of process experts (researchers and participatory practitioners). This community is in an early stage of development at present and characterised by significant fragmentation between specific actor groupings within it. This coupled with intensely competitive relations between actors means that the community is not learning as effectively as it might. Unless the community makes a more concerted effort to faithfully represent a learning community its potential to democratise science within the UK will remain limited. Closer analysis within the area of radioactive waste provides evidence that community members are influencing the beliefs of decision-making institutions, and enhancing scientific reflexivity, in geographically localised and institutionally specific instances. They have played a central role in bringing about a shift away from a technocratic mode of decision-making prior to 1997, towards one that is more democratic. A key indication of this democratisation is the significant degree to which citizens are being involved in processes of extended peer review, and possibly contributing extended facts, in the framing stage of decision processes within the area. A final insight of the thesis is that community members possess shared understandings about effective PRA. Fifteen shared principles of effective practice are identified in relation four themes: the overall shape of the analytic-deliberative process; the role of science/analysis; access to information and expertise; and the nature of deliberation. The key observation emerging from these principles is that many existing participatory methodologies have not sufficiency considered constructivist perspectives on environmental knowledge. It is argued that effective PRA in postnormal environmental risk contexts depends on a number of specific measures being in place that guard against the 'technocracy of participation'.

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Pizarro, Muñoz Jenny Alejandra. „Efeitos de idade na sobrevivência aparente de aves de sub-bosque na floresta Amazônica“. reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRGS, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/150592.

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A observação de gradientes latitudinais em aspectos da história de vida de aves tem motivado o estudo da evolução e variabilidade das histórias de vida nestes organismos. Um exemplo bem documentado é a variação no tamanho da ninhada, onde aves de latitudes menores tendem a ter ninhadas menores do que os seus homólogos de latitudes altas. Uma hipótese que visa explicar esta variação propõe que a sobrevivência em latitudes tropicais é maior para compensar o tamanho da ninhada menor e evitar a extinção das populações. Esta explicação tem tido grande aceitação e apoio por parte de alguns estudos, mas tem sido questionada por outros que não encontraram taxas de sobrevivência mais elevadas em aves tropicais. De modo implícito, todos estes estudos basearam seus resultados na sobrevivência de indivíduos adultos. As populações com o tamanho da ninhada menor não poderiam crescer da mesma maneira que as populações com ninhadas maiores; portanto, se justifica acreditar que algo deve mudar com a latitude para manter o balanço em tamanho populacional. Na busca por explicações alternativas para a persistência das populações de aves tropicais com relativamente pequenos tamanhos de ninhada, surge outra hipótese que propõe que, se não houver diferenças na sobrevivência de indivíduos adultos entre latitudes, o aspecto fundamental que varia é a sobrevivência juvenil, com sobrevivência maior para os juvenis das zonas tropicais em comparação com os juvenis das zonas temperadas. No entanto, atualmente há pouca evidência que suporta esta conclusão. Os resultados contrastantes desses estudos sugerem a falta de um consenso geral sobre a hipótese de que as aves tropicais têm taxas de sobrevivência mais elevadas do que as aves de regiões temperadas, motivando a formulação de hipóteses alternativas e convidando novos testes de hipótese. Neste estudo, pretendemos a) avaliar o efeito da idade sobre a sobrevivência em aves tropicais, estimando as probabilidades anuais de sobrevivência aparentes idade-específicas para um conjunto de aves passeriformes de sub-bosque na Amazônia central brasileira; e b) contribuir para o debate sobre o gradiente latitudinal na sobrevivência de adultos, comparando nossas estimativas com estimativas de outras latitudes. Para estimar a sobrevivência idade-específica ajustamos aos nossos dados um modelo Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) hierárquico para n espécies, que trata os parâmetros espécie-específicos como efeitos aleatórios, que são estimados e que descrevem todo o conjunto de espécies; para comparação de métodos, ajustamos uma versão de efeitos fixos do modelo. Para a determinação da idade das aves usamos o sistema WRP. Apresentamos uma nova variante do modelo CJS com um parâmetro de mistura para a sobrevivência de aves de idade incerta no momento da primeira captura. Encontramos efeito forte da idade na sobrevivência, com probabilidades de sobrevivência menor para os jovens do que para os adultos; evidência de efeito latitude sobre a sobrevivência, que suporta a hipótese amplamente aceita de variação na sobrevivência com a latitude; e discutimos diferenças metodológicas interessantes entre modelo de efeitos aleatórios e fixos relacionados com a precisão das estimativas e o âmbito de inferência, que nos levam a concluir que os modelos de efeitos aleatórios são os mais adequados para a nossa análise. Concluímos que não é necessário invocar uma hipótese alternativa de maior sobrevivência juvenil nos trópicos a fim de explicar o gradiente latitudinal no tamanho da ninhada.
The observation of latitudinal gradients in bird life history traits has motivated the study of avian life history evolution and variability. A well-documented example is the variation in clutch size, where lower latitude birds tend to have smaller clutches than their higher latitude counterparts. A hypothesis that explains this variation proposes that survival in tropical latitudes is higher to compensate for smaller clutch size and prevent population extinctions. This explanation has had a wide acceptance and support by some studies, but has been questioned by others who have not found such higher survival rates in tropical birds. In an implicit manner, all these studies have based their results on adult survival. Populations with smaller clutch size would not be able to grow as well as populations with larger clutches; therefore one is justified to believe that something else must change with latitude. In the search for alternative explanations to the persistence of tropical bird populations with relatively small clutch sizes it has also been proposed that, if there were no differences in adult survival among latitudes, the fundamental trait that varies is juvenile survival, with higher survival rates for tropical juveniles birds than for temperate ones. However, currently there is little evidence that supports this conclusion. The contrasting results of those studies suggest a lack of a general consensus about the hypothesis that tropical birds have higher survival rates than birds of temperate regions, motivating the formulation of alternative hypotheses, and inviting further tests of the hypothesis. In our study we aim to a) assess the effect of age on survival in a tropical bird community, estimating age-specific annual apparent survival probabilities for a set of passerine understory birds from the central Brazilian Amazon; and b) contribute to the debate about the latitudinal gradient in adult survival by comparing our adult survival estimates to estimates of temperate-zone adult survival probabilities. To estimate the age-specific survival we fit to our data a hierarchical multispecies Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model for n species, that treats species-specific parameters as random effects that are estimated and that describe the whole assemblage of species; for comparison of methods, we also fit a fixed-effects version of the model. To age birds we use the cycle-based WRP system. We introduce a novel variant of CJS model with a mixture component for the survival of birds of uncertain age at the time of banding. We found strong effect of age on survival, with juveniles surviving less than adults; evidence of latitude effect on survival, that supports the widely accepted hypothesis of variation on survival with latitude; and methodological differences between random and fixed effects model related to precision of estimates and scope of inference, that lead us to conclude that random-effects models are more appropriate for our analysis. We conclude that there is no reason for an alternative latitudinal trend in juvenile survival to account for the general trend in clutch size.

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Johansson, Jesper. „Success at the box office in the age of streaming services : An examination of how streaming services have impacted the dynamics of successful movies in the cinema“. Thesis, Internationella Handelshögskolan, Jönköping University, IHH, Nationalekonomi, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-50486.

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Netflix and other streaming services have grown immensely since they started offering online streaming. In this paper I present a correlation matrix using ticket sales at the domestic box office and the number of Netflix subscribers. They are shown to be negatively correlated with one another, supporting many previous researchers’ thoughts on the topic. I also show using two OLS regressions with data from movies released in 2006-2007 and 2017-2018 that being a part of a franchise has a stronger correlation with increased revenue in the latter model compared to the previous one. In the models one can also see that the general quality of a movie, as measured by IMDb rating, is associated with a higher increase in revenue in the latter model. I argue that this is due to consumers being inclined to watch what they perceive to be high-quality movies in the theaters in the latter model as they can conveniently watch movies of a poorer quality on their streaming service, an option that was not available to the same extent previously. I also argue that consumers are more willing to commit to going to the cinema for a franchise movie, especially in the Marvel cinematic universe, as they are often effects driven movies which are better experienced on a large screen. The budget variable is significant in both models, but the coefficient is much smaller in the second model. I argue that this is due to the fact that a higher budget is required for movies released in 2017-2018 to maintain the same level of revenue as in 2006 and 2007 due to the competition that have come from streaming services. However, I conclude that more research is necessary before drawing definite conclusions as the market for cinema is highly uncertain and difficult to estimate accurately.

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Zaehle, Sönke. „Process-based simulation of the terrestrial biosphere : an evaluation of present-day and future terrestrial carbon balance estimates and their uncertainty“. Phd thesis, Universität Potsdam, 2005. http://opus.kobv.de/ubp/volltexte/2005/526/.

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At present, carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems slows the growth rate of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, and thereby reduces the impact of anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions on the climate system. Changes in climate and land use affect terrestrial biosphere structure and functioning at present, and will likely impact on the terrestrial carbon balance during the coming decades - potentially providing a positive feedback to the climate system due to soil carbon releases under a warmer climate. Quantifying changes, and the associated uncertainties, in regional terrestrial carbon budgets resulting from these effects is relevant for the scientific understanding of the Earth system and for long-term climate mitigation strategies.

A model describing the relevant processes that govern the terrestrial carbon cycle is a necessary tool to project regional carbon budgets into the future. This study (1) provides an extensive evaluation of the parameter-based uncertainty in model results of a leading terrestrial biosphere model, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVM), against a range of observations and under climate change, thereby complementing existing studies on other aspects of model uncertainty; (2) evaluates different hypotheses to explain the age-related decline in forest growth, both from theoretical and experimental evidence, and introduces the most promising hypothesis into the model; (3) demonstrates how forest statistics can be successfully integrated with process-based modelling to provide long-term constraints on regional-scale forest carbon budget estimates for a European forest case-study; and (4) elucidates the combined effects of land-use and climate changes on the present-day and future terrestrial carbon balance over Europe for four illustrative scenarios - implemented by four general circulation models - using a comprehensive description of different land-use types within the framework of LPJ-DGVM.

This study presents a way to assess and reduce uncertainty in process-based terrestrial carbon estimates on a regional scale. The results of this study demonstrate that simulated present-day land-atmosphere carbon fluxes are relatively well constrained, despite considerable uncertainty in modelled net primary production. Process-based terrestrial modelling and forest statistics are successfully combined to improve model-based estimates of vegetation carbon stocks and their change over time. Application of the advanced model for 77 European provinces shows that model-based estimates of biomass development with stand age compare favourably with forest inventory-based estimates for different tree species. Driven by historic changes in climate, atmospheric CO₂ concentration, forest area and wood demand between 1948 and 2000, the model predicts European-scale, present-day age structure of forests, ratio of biomass removals to increment, and vegetation carbon sequestration rates that are consistent with inventory-based estimates. Alternative scenarios of climate and land-use change in the 21^st century suggest carbon sequestration in the European terrestrial biosphere during the coming decades will likely be on magnitudes relevant to climate mitigation strategies. However, the uptake rates are small in comparison to the European emissions from fossil fuel combustion, and will likely decline towards the end of the century. Uncertainty in climate change projections is a key driver for uncertainty in simulated land-atmosphere carbon fluxes and needs to be accounted for in mitigation studies of the terrestrial biosphere.

Kohlenstoffspeicherung in terrestrischen Ökosystemen reduziert derzeit die Wirkung anthropogener CO₂-Emissionen auf das Klimasystem, indem sie die Wachstumsrate der atmosphärischer CO₂-Konzentration verlangsamt. Die heutige terrestrische Kohlenstoffbilanz wird wesentlich von Klima- und Landnutzungsänderungen beeinflusst. Diese Einflussfaktoren werden sich auch in den kommenden Dekaden auf die terrestrische Biosphäre auswirken, und dabei möglicherweise zu einer positiven Rückkopplung zwischen Biosphäre und Klimasystem aufgrund von starken Bodenkohlenstoffverlusten in einem wärmeren Klima führen. Quantitative Abschätzungen der Wirkung dieser Einflussfaktoren - sowie der mit ihnen verbundenen Unsicherheit - auf die terrestrische Kohlenstoffbilanz sind daher sowohl für das Verständnis des Erdsystems, als auch für eine langfristig angelegte Klimaschutzpolitik relevant.

Um regionale Kohlenstoffbilanzen in die Zukunft zu projizieren, sind Modelle erforderlich, die die wesentlichen Prozesse des terrestrischen Kohlenstoffkreislaufes beschreiben. Die vorliegende Arbeit (1) analysiert die parameterbasierte Unsicherheit in Modellergebnissen eines der führenden globalen terrestrischen Ökosystemmodelle (LPJ-DGVM) im Vergleich mit unterschiedlichen ökosystemaren Messgrößen, sowie unter Klimawandelprojektionen, und erweitert damit bereits vorliegende Studien zu anderen Aspekten der Modelunsicherheit; (2) diskutiert unter theoretischen und experimentellen Aspekten verschiedene Hypothesen über die altersbedingte Abnahme des Waldwachstums, und implementiert die vielversprechenste Hypothese in das Model; (3) zeigt für eine europäische Fallstudie, wie Waldbestandsstatistiken erfolgreich für eine verbesserte Abschätzung von regionalen Kohlenstoffbilanzen in Wäldern durch prozessbasierten Modelle angewandt werden können; (4) untersucht die Auswirkung möglicher zukünftiger Klima- und Landnutzungsänderungen auf die europäische Kohlenstoffbilanz anhand von vier verschiedenen illustrativen Szenarien, jeweils unter Berücksichtigung von Klimawandelprojektionen vier verschiedener Klimamodelle. Eine erweiterte Version von LPJ-DGVM findet hierfür Anwendung, die eine umfassende Beschreibung der Hauptlandnutzungstypen beinhaltet.

Die vorliegende Arbeit stellt einen Ansatz vor, um Unsicherheiten in der prozessbasierten Abschätzung von terrestrischen Kohlenstoffbilanzen auf regionaler Skala zu untersuchen und zu reduzieren. Die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit zeigen, dass der Nettokohlenstoffaustausch zwischen terrestrischer Biosphäre und Atmosphäre unter heutigen klimatischen Bedingungen relativ sicher abgeschätzt werden kann, obwohl erhebliche Unsicherheit über die modelbasierte terrestrische Nettoprimärproduktion existiert. Prozessbasierte Modellierung und Waldbestandsstatistiken wurden erfolgreich kombiniert, um verbesserte Abschätzungen von regionalen Kohlenstoffvorräten und ihrer Änderung mit der Zeit zu ermöglichen. Die Anwendung des angepassten Modells in 77 europäischen Regionen zeigt, dass modellbasierte Abschätzungen des Biomasseaufwuchses in Wäldern weitgehend mit inventarbasierten Abschätzungen für verschiede Baumarten übereinstimmen. Unter Berücksichtigung von historischen Änderungen in Klima, atmosphärischem CO₂-Gehalt, Waldfläche und Holzernte (1948-2000) reproduziert das Model auf europäischer Ebene die heutigen, auf Bestandsstatistiken beruhenden, Abschätzungen von Waldaltersstruktur, das Verhältnis von Zuwachs und Entnahme von Biomasse, sowie die Speicherungsraten im Kohlenstoffspeicher der Vegetation. Alternative Szenarien von zukünftigen Landnutzungs- und Klimaänderungen legen nahe, dass die Kohlenstoffaufnahme der europäischen terrestrischen Biosphäre von relevanter Größenordnung für Klimaschutzstrategien sind. Die Speicherungsraten sind jedoch klein im Vergleich zu den absoluten europäischen CO₂-Emissionen, und nehmen zudem sehr wahrscheinlich gegen Ende des 21. Jahrhunderts ab. Unsicherheiten in Klimaprojektionen sind eine Hauptursache für die Unsicherheiten in den modellbasierten Abschätzungen des zukünftigen Nettokohlenstoffaustausches und müssen daher in Klimaschutzanalysen der terrestrischen Biosphäre berücksichtigt werden.

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Bücher zum Thema "Age of uncertainty"

Currie, Ken. The age of uncertainty. Glasgow: Scottish Arts Council, 1992.

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Uncertainty and insecurity in the New Age. New York, NY: John D. Calandra Italian American Institute, 2009.

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Blatterer, Harry. Coming of age in times of uncertainty. New York: Berghahn Books, 2007.

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Parrillo, Vincent N. Uncertainty and insecurity in the New Age. New York, NY: John D. Calandra Italian American Institute, 2009.

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Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem. Mortality change, the uncertainty effect, and retirement. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2002.

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Seeing things: Television in the age of uncertainty. London: I.B. Tauris, 2000.

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Love in an age of uncertainty: Reclaiming Aphrodite. London: Aquarian/Thorsons, 1993.

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Gritzalis, Dimitris, Sabrina Capitani di Vimercati, Pierangela Samarati und Sokratis Katsikas, Hrsg. Security and Privacy in the Age of Uncertainty. Boston, MA: Springer US, 2003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-35691-4.

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Seeing things: Television in the age of uncertainty. London: I.B. Tauris, 2002.

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Bailey, James A. Building Learning Capacity in an Age of Uncertainty. New York, NY: Routledge, 2021.: Routledge, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003144847.

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Buchteile zum Thema "Age of uncertainty"

Giritli Nygren, Katarina, Anna Olofsson und Susanna Öhman. „The Age of Ambivalence“. In Critical Studies in Risk and Uncertainty, 1–17. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-33524-3_1.

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Wild, Leah. „Transgressive Terrain: Risk, Otherness and ‘New Age’ Nomadism“. In Trust, Risk and Uncertainty, 181–202. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230506039_11.

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Inkster, Nigel. „War in the age of uncertainty“. In The World Information War, 281–86. Abingdon, Oxon ; New York, NY : Routledge, [2021] | Series: Routledge advances in defence studies: Routledge, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003046905-20.

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Monaghan, Philip. „Smarter Interventions in an Age of Uncertainty“. In Resilient Cities 2, 391–96. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-4223-9_41.

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Kivinen, Osmo. „Higher Learning in an Age of Uncertainty“. In Higher Education Dynamics, 191–206. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 2002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-010-0579-1_13.

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Green, Andy. „Young People and Employment: The Age of Uncertainty“. In The Crisis for Young People, 45–62. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-58547-5_3.

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Bishop, Christopher. „Embracing Uncertainty: Applied Machine Learning Comes of Age“. In Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases, 4. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-23780-5_3.

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Chignell, Hugh. „The Age of Uncertainty — Radio in the 1990s“. In Public Issue Radio, 173–93. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230346451_9.

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Manor, Ilan, und Corneliu Bjola. „Public Diplomacy in the Age of ‘Post-reality’“. In Public Diplomacy and the Politics of Uncertainty, 111–43. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-54552-9_5.

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Tully, James. „Foreword“. In Minority Nations in the Age of Uncertainty, vii—x. Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.3138/9781442621251-001.

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Konferenzberichte zum Thema "Age of uncertainty"

Lewis, P. A. „Continuing education in an age of uncertainty“. In Proceedings of SOUTHCON '94. IEEE, 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/southc.1994.498098.

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Armanious, Karim, Sherif Abdulatif, Wenbin Shi, Tobias Hepp, Sergios Gatidis und Bin Yang. „Uncertainty-Based Biological Age Estimation of Brain MRI Scans“. In ICASSP 2021 - 2021 IEEE International Conference on Acoustics, Speech and Signal Processing (ICASSP). IEEE, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icassp39728.2021.9414112.

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Jenkins, Mariah. „MINIMIZING UNCERTAINTY IN ZIRCON AND PLAGIOCLASE AGE DATING FROM DETAILED PETROGRAPHY“. In GSA Annual Meeting in Phoenix, Arizona, USA - 2019. Geological Society of America, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1130/abs/2019am-340287.

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Qian, Yanlin, Ke Chen, Dan Yang und Joni-Kristian Kamarainen. „Beyond Wisdom of Crowds: Deep Uncertainty Coding for Apparent Age Estimation“. In 2019 IEEE 4th International Conference on Image, Vision and Computing (ICIVC). IEEE, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icivc47709.2019.8981088.

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Xu, Wenge, Hai-Ning Liang, Kangyou Yu und Nilufar Baghaei. „Effect of Gameplay Uncertainty, Display Type, and Age on Virtual Reality Exergames“. In CHI '21: CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems. New York, NY, USA: ACM, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/3411764.3445801.

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Chen, Nanxin, Jesus Villalba, Yishay Carmiel und Najim Dehak. „Measuring Uncertainty in Deep Regression Models: The Case of Age Estimation from Speech“. In ICASSP 2018 - 2018 IEEE International Conference on Acoustics, Speech and Signal Processing (ICASSP). IEEE, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icassp.2018.8462416.

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Wen, Liang, Su Wu und Xi-Sheng Jia. „Notice of Retraction Age replacement optimization with uncertainty of life time distribution parameters“. In 2013 International Conference on Quality, Reliability, Risk, Maintenance and Safety Engineering (QR2MSE). IEEE, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/qr2mse.2013.6625660.

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Sakata, Atsuya, Yasushi Makihara, Noriko Takemura, Daigo Muramatsu und Yasushi Yagi. „How Confident Are You in Your Estimate of a Human Age? Uncertainty-aware Gait-based Age Estimation by Label Distribution Learning“. In 2020 IEEE International Joint Conference on Biometrics (IJCB). IEEE, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/ijcb48548.2020.9304914.

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Liu, Kuan-Hsien, Shuicheng Yan und C. C. Jay Kuo. „Age group classification via structured fusion of uncertainty-driven shape features and selected surface features“. In 2014 IEEE Winter Conference on Applications of Computer Vision (WACV). IEEE, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/wacv.2014.6836068.

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Ahlfeld, Richard, Mauro Carnevale, Simone Salvadori und Francesco Montomoli. „An Autonomous Uncertainty Quantification Method for the Digital Age: Transonic Flow Simulations Using Multivariate Padé Approximations“. In ASME Turbo Expo 2017: Turbomachinery Technical Conference and Exposition. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/gt2017-64968.

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There is a need to automate stochastic uncertainty quantification codes in the digital age. Problems in turbomachinery Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) are characterised by non-linear and discontinuous responses and long run times. Ensuring the reliability of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) codes in such conditions, in an autonomous way, is a challenging problem. Human involvement has always been required. In this work, we therefore suggest a new approach that combines three state-of-the-art methods: multivariate Padé approximations, Optimal Quadrature Subsampling and Statistical Learning. Its main component is the generalised least squares multivariate Padé-Legendre (PL) approximation. PL approximations are globally fitted rational functions that can accurately describe discontinuous non-linear behaviour. They need fewer model evaluations than local or adaptive methods and do not cause the Gibbs phenomenon, like continuous Polynomial Chaos methods. We describe a series of modifications of the Padé algorithm that allow us to apply it to arbitrary input points instead of optimal quadrature locations. This property is particularly useful for industrial applications, where a database of CFD runs is already available, but not in optimal parameter locations. One drawback of the PL approximation is that it is non-trivial to ensure reliability for multiple input parameters. We therefore suggest a new method to improve stability in this work: Optimal Quadrature Subsampling. Our argument is that least squares errors, caused by an ill-conditioned design matrix, are the main source of error. Finally, we use statistical learning techniques to automatically guarantee smoothness and convergence. The resulting method is shown to efficiently and correctly fit thousands of partly discontinuous response surfaces for an industrial film cooling and shock interaction problem automatically and using only 9 CFD simulations. It can be applied to any other UQ problem that is characterised by a limited amount of data and the presence of discontinuities.

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Berichte der Organisationen zum Thema "Age of uncertainty"

Fraser, Powell A., und Jr. Making the Military Matter in an Age of Uncertainty. Fort Belvoir, VA: Defense Technical Information Center, Januar 1992. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada437067.

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Backus, George A., Thomas Stephen Lowry, Shannon M. Jones, La Tonya Nicole Walker, Barry L. Roberts und Leonard A. Malczynski. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 25 Appendix X - Forecast Sea Ice Age. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), Mai 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1367304.

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Backus, George A., Thomas Stephen Lowry, Shannon M. Jones, La Tonya Nicole Walker, Barry L. Roberts und Leonard A. Malczynski. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 24 Appendix W - Historical Sea Ice Age. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), Mai 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1367443.

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Bunnell, F. L. Alchemy and uncertainty: What good are models? Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 1989. http://dx.doi.org/10.2737/pnw-gtr-232.

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Hansen, Lars Peter, und Thomas Sargent. Macroeconomic Uncertainty Prices when Beliefs are Tenuous. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, April 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w25781.

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Binh T. Pham, Jeffrey J. Einerson und Grant L. Hawkes. Uncertainty Quantification of Calculated Temperatures for the AGR-1 Experiment. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), März 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1082396.

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Julio-Román, Juan Manuel. How uncertain are NAIRU estimates in Colombia? Bogotá, Colombia: Banco de la República, August 2001. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/be.184.

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Pham, Binh Thi-Cam. Uncertainty Quantification of Calculated Temperatures for the AGR 3/4 Experiment. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), September 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1244623.

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Einav, Liran, Amy Finkelstein, Iuliana Pascu und Mark Cullen. How general are risk preferences? Choices under uncertainty in different domains. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, Januar 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w15686.

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