Dissertationen: „Budget models“

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Yang, Xuan, and 楊譞. "Budget-limited data disambiguation." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10722/196458.

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The problem of data ambiguity exists in a wide range of applications. In this thesis, we study “cost-aware" methods to alleviate the data ambiguity problems in uncertain databases and social-tagging data. In database applications, ambiguous (or uncertain) data may originate from data integration and measurement error of devices. These ambiguous data are maintained by uncertain databases. In many situations, it is possible to “clean", or remove, ambiguities from these databases. For example, the GPS location of a user is inexact due to measurement error, but context information (e.g., what a user is doing) can be used to reduce the imprecision of the location value. In practice, a cleaning activity often involves a cost, may fail and may not remove all ambiguities. Moreover, the statistical information about how likely database entities can be cleaned may not be precisely known. We model the above aspects with the uncertain database cleaning problem, which requires us to make sensible decisions in selecting entities to clean in order to maximize the amount of ambiguous information removed under a limited budget. To solve this problem, we propose the Explore-Exploit (or EE) algorithm, which gathers valuable information during the cleaning process to determine how the remaining cleaning budget should be invested. We also study how to fine-tune the parameters of EE in order to achieve optimal cleaning effectiveness. Social tagging data capture web users' textual annotations, called tags, for resources (e.g., webpages and photos). Since tags are given by casual users, they often contain noise (e.g., misspelled words) and may not be able to cover all the aspects of each resource. In this thesis, we design a metric to systematically measure the tagging quality of each resource based on the tags it has received. We propose an incentive-based tagging framework in order to improve the tagging quality. The main idea is to award users some incentive for giving (relevant) tags to resources. The challenge is, how should we allocate incentives to a large set of resources, so as to maximize the improvement of their tagging quality under a limited budget? To solve this problem, we propose a few efficient incentive allocation strategies. Experiments shows that our best strategy provides resources with a close-to-optimal gain in tagging quality. To summarize, we study the problem of budget-limited data disambiguation for uncertain databases and social tagging data | given a set of objects (entities from uncertain databases or web resources), how can we make sensible decisions about which object to \disambiguate" (to perform a cleaning activity on the entity or ask a user to tag the resource), in order to maximize the amount of ambiguous information reduced under a limited budget. published_or_final_version Computer Science Doctoral Doctor of Philosophy

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Batchelder, James P. "University Budget Models, Institutional Size, and Student Outcomes." Digital Commons @ East Tennessee State University, 2020. https://dc.etsu.edu/etd/3832.

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The purpose of the non-experimental quantitative research study was to identify if there is a significant difference between the types of budget model an institution utilizes, institutional size, and student enrollment, retention, and graduation rates. This study was to identify if there is significant difference between institutional size and the type budget model utilized. Member institutions of the American Association of State Colleges and Universities (AASCU) were selected to participate in this study due to their similarities of mission and admissions policy. AASCU institutions share a common mission that focuses on access, innovation, regional support, and inclusion. AASCU institutions are all public regional institutions. Larger institutions within the study presented significantly higher retention and graduation rates compared to medium size institutions. I used the Carnegie classification of size as institutions that have enrollments less than 3,000 as small, institutions that have enrollments less than 10,000 as medium, and institutions with enrollments greater than 10,000 as large. I study found no significant difference in the types of budget model utilized and the student outcomes related to enrollment, retention, or graduation rates. I did indicate that institutions that utilized a more decentralized budgeting approach had higher enrollment percentages and higher retention and graduation rates than institutions that utilized a centralized budget model. I also did not identify any significant difference in the size of an institution and the type of budget model utilized.

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Keogh, Andrew James, University of Western Sydney, of Science Technology and Environment College, and School of Engineering and Industrial Design. "Geo-chemical budget models of the Penrith Lakes Scheme." THESIS_CSTE_EID_Keogh_A.xml, 2003. http://handle.uws.edu.au:8081/1959.7/472.

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The Penrith Lakes Scheme is a series of inter-connected lakes, produced by the rehabilitation of a sand and gravel quarry, for water quality treatment and recreational uses. Presently, 5 lakes are operational comprising 4 upstream lakes for treatment of storm-water and quarry discharge and a single downstream recreational lake as the Sydney International Regatta Centre used during the Sydney 2000 Olympic Games. This report is the result of a study, during 1998-2003, with an aim to develop dynamic budget models of water, sediments and nutrients for these lakes, providing suitable data for long-term management planning and evaluation of short-term operational management.Findings showed that while progressive reassessment and refinement will be required as management control increases, the approach provides the foundation modelling procedures and frame-work for suitable hydrological and water quality management of the Penrith Lakes Scheme, and may be extended to include further lakes, water sources and management strategies. Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

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Keogh, Andrew James. "Geo-chemical budget models of the Penrith Lakes Scheme /." View thesis, 2003. http://library.uws.edu.au/adt-NUWS/public/adt-NUWS20040528.121937/index.html.

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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Western Sydney, 2003. "A thesis submitted to the School of Engineering and Industrial Design, University of Western Sydney, in partial fulfilment of the requirements of the degree of Doctor of Philosophy." Includes bibliographical references and appendices.

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Karlsson, Johannes. "The influence of clouds on Earth's radiation budget in global climate models /." Stockholm : Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, 2009. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-29276.

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Diss. (sammanfattning) Stockholm : Stockholms universitet, 2009. At the time of the doctoral defense, the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 1: Submitted. Paper 2: Submitted. Paper 4: Manuscript. Härtill 4 uppsatser.

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Tsenova, Tsvetomira Stoyanova. "Macro-theoretic models of an economy in transition." Thesis, University of York, 2000. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.341846.

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7

Martin, Benjamin. "Linking individual-based models and dynamic energy budget theory : lessons for ecology and ecotoxicology." Phd thesis, Universität Potsdam, 2013. http://opus.kobv.de/ubp/volltexte/2013/6700/.

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In the context of ecological risk assessment of chemicals, individual-based population models hold great potential to increase the ecological realism of current regulatory risk assessment procedures. However, developing and parameterizing such models is time-consuming and often ad hoc. Using standardized, tested submodels of individual organisms would make individual-based modelling more efficient and coherent. In this thesis, I explored whether Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory is suitable for being used as a standard submodel in individual-based models, both for ecological risk assessment and theoretical population ecology. First, I developed a generic implementation of DEB theory in an individual-based modeling (IBM) context: DEB-IBM. Using the DEB-IBM framework I tested the ability of the DEB theory to predict population-level dynamics from the properties of individuals. We used Daphnia magna as a model species, where data at the individual level was available to parameterize the model, and population-level predictions were compared against independent data from controlled population experiments. We found that DEB theory successfully predicted population growth rates and peak densities of experimental Daphnia populations in multiple experimental settings, but failed to capture the decline phase, when the available food per Daphnia was low. Further assumptions on food-dependent mortality of juveniles were needed to capture the population dynamics after the initial population peak. The resulting model then predicted, without further calibration, characteristic switches between small- and large-amplitude cycles, which have been observed for Daphnia. We conclude that cross-level tests help detecting gaps in current individual-level theories and ultimately will lead to theory development and the establishment of a generic basis for individual-based models and ecology. In addition to theoretical explorations, we tested the potential of DEB theory combined with IBMs to extrapolate effects of chemical stress from the individual to population level. For this we used information at the individual level on the effect of 3,4-dichloroanailine on Daphnia. The individual data suggested direct effects on reproduction but no significant effects on growth. Assuming such direct effects on reproduction, the model was able to accurately predict the population response to increasing concentrations of 3,4-dichloroaniline. We conclude that DEB theory combined with IBMs holds great potential for standardized ecological risk assessment based on ecological models. Für die ökologische Risikobewertung von Chemikalien sind individuenbasierte Populationsmodelle ein vielversprechendes Werkzeug um heutige Bewertungen ökologisch realistischer zu gestalten. Allerdings ist die Entwicklung und Parametrisierung derartiger Modelle zeitaufwendig und oft wenig systematisch. Standardisierte, geprüfte Untermodelle, die Einzelorganismen beschreiben, würden die individuenbasierte Modellierung effizienter und kohärenter machen. In meiner Dissertation habe ich daher untersucht, inwieweit sich die Dynamic Energy Budget-Theorie (DEB) als Standardmodell innerhalb individuenbasierter Populationsmodelle eignet, und zwar sowohl für die ökologische Risikobewertung als auch für die theoretische Populationsökologie. Zunächst habe ich eine generische Implementierung der DEB-Theorie im Rahmen individuenbasierter Modellen (IBM) erstellt: DEB-IBM. Dieses Werkzeug nutzend habe ich dann untersucht, ob es mit Hilfe der DEB-Theorie gelingt, ausgehend von den Eigenschaften und Aktivitäten einzelner Individuen, Populationsdynamik vorherzusagen. Wir nutzten dabei Daphnia magna als Modellart, für die Daten auf der Individuenebene verfügbar waren, um das Modell zu parametrisieren, sowie Populationsdaten, mit denen Modellvorhersagen verglichen werden konnten. DEB-Theorie war in der Lage, beobachtete Populationswachstumsraten sowie die maximalen Abundanzen korrekt vorherzusagen, und zwar für verschiedene Umweltbedingungen. Für Phasen des Rückgangs der Population allerdings, wenn die für die Daphnien verfügbare Nahrungsmenge gering war, kam es zu Abweichungen. Es waren deshalb zusätzliche Annahmen über nahrungsabhängige Sterblichkeit von juvenilen Daphnien erforderlich, um die gesamte Populationsdynamik korrekt vorherzusagen. Das resultierende Modell konnte dann, ohne weitere Kalibrierungen, den für Daphnien charakteristischen Wechsel zwischen Populationszyklen mit großen und kleinen Amplituden richtig vorhersagen. Wir folgern daraus, daß Ebenen übergreifende Tests dabei helfen, Lücken in aktuellen Theorien über Einzelorganismen aufzudecken Dies trägt zur Theorieentwicklung bei und liefert Grundlagen für individuenbasierte Modellierung und Ökologie. Über diese Grundlagenfragen hinaus haben wir überprüft, ob DEB-Theorie in Kombination mit IBMs es ermöglicht, den Effekt von chemischem Streß auf Individuen auf die Populationsebene zu extrapolieren. Wir nutzten Daten über die Auswirkungen von 3,4 Dichloroanalin auf einzelne Daphnien, die zeigten daß im Wesentlichen die Reproduktion, nicht aber das Wachstum beeinträchtigt ist. Mit entsprechenden Annahmen konnte unser Modell den Effekt auf Populationsebene, für den unabhängige Daten vorlagen, korrekt vorhersagen. DEB-Theorie in Kombination mit individuenbasierter Modellierung birgt somit großes Potential für einen standardisierten modellbasierten Ansatz in der ökologischen Risikobewertung von Chemikalien.

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Kumar, Akhil. "Budget-Related Prediction Models in the Business Environment with Special Reference to Spot Price Predictions." Thesis, North Texas State University, 1986. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc331533/.

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The purpose of this research is to study and improve decision accuracy in the real world. Spot price prediction of petroleum products, in a budgeting context, is the task chosen to study prediction accuracy. Prediction accuracy of executives in a multinational oil company is examined. The Brunswik Lens Model framework is used to evaluate prediction accuracy. Predictions of the individuals, the composite group (mathematical average of the individuals), the interacting group, and the environmental model were compared. Predictions of the individuals were obtained through a laboratory experiment in which experts were used as subjects. The subjects were required to make spot price predictions for two petroleum products. Eight predictor variables that were actually used by the subjects in real-world predictions were elicited through an interview process. Data for a 15 month period were used to construct 31 cases for each of the two products. Prediction accuracy was evaluated by comparing predictions with the actual spot prices. Predictions of the composite group were obtained by averaging the predictions of the individuals. Interacting group predictions were obtained ex post from the company's records. The study found the interacting group to be the least accurate. The implication of this finding is that even though an interacting group may be desirable for information synthesis, evaluation, or working toward group consensus, it is undesirable if prediction accuracy is critical. The accuracy of the environmental model was found to be the highest. This suggests that apart from random error, misweighting of cues by individuals and groups affects prediction accuracy. Another implication of this study is that the environmental model can also be used as an additional input in the prediction process to improve accuracy.

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Moolman, George Christiaan. "An aggregate capital budgeting model using a product portfolio approach." Diss., This resource online, 1994. http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-10022007-145421/.

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Warrior, Hari. "Parameterization of the Light Models in Various General Ocean Circulation Models for shallow waters." Scholar Commons, 2004. https://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd/1292.

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Solar energy is incident on the earth's surface in both short-wave and long-wave parts of the spectrum. The short-wave part of the spectrum is of special interest to oceanographers since the vertical distribution of temperature in the top layer of the ocean is mostly determined by the vertical attenuation of short-wave radiation. There are numerous studies regarding the temperature evolution as a function of time (see Chapter 2 for details). The diurnal and seasonal variation of the heat content (and hence temperature) of the ocean is explored in this thesis. The basis for such heat budget simulation lies in the fact that the heat budget is the primary driver of ocean currents (maybe secondary to wind effects) and these circulation features affect the biological and chemical effects of that region. The vertical attenuation of light (classified to be in the 300-700 nm range) in the top layer of the ocean has been parameterized by several authors. Simpson and Dickey (1981) in their paper have listed the various attenuation schemes in use till then. This includes a single-exponential form, a bimodal exponential form, and a spectral decomposition into nine spectral bands, each with their specific exponential functions with depth. The effects of vertical light attenuation have been investigated by integrating the light models into a 1D and a 3D turbulence closure model. The main part of the thesis is the inclusion of a bottom effect in the shallow waters. Bottom serves two purposes, it reflects some light based on its albedo and it radiates the rest of the light as heat. 1-D simulation including bottom effects clearly indicates the effect of light on the temperature profile and also the corresponding effect on salinity profiles. An extension of the study includes a 3D simulation of the heat budget and the associated circulation and hydrodynamics. Intense heating due to the bottom leads to the formation of hyper-saline waters that percolate down to depths of 50 m in the summer. Such plumes have been simulated by using a 3D numerical ocean model and it is consistent with observations from the Bahamas banks.

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Andrew, Shelley Lewis Jr. "Budget Analysis of Spring, Fall with Winter Clean-up, and High-Fertility Fall Lambing Systems in a Simulated Fixed Forage Resource." Thesis, Virginia Tech, 1998. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/37021.

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A successful business needs to generate enough cash to cover expenses, current debt, and family living expenses, pay interest on owned and borrowed capital, maintain productivity, and earn a reasonable return for the operator. Income from sheep production is generally only part of a total farm and nonfarm income. Thus options, opportunity costs, and decisions regarding the sheep production enterprise are not isolated; they affect other agricultural enterprises. Sheep production consistently returns profits to producers, which makes it an enticing agricultural enterprise. There are advantages in raising sheep in Virginia, such as abundant, high-quality forage, moderate climate, pasture improvement, and good access to markets with high demand for lamb. The disadvantages to sheep production are unavailable and inexperienced labor and operators, predators, and inconsistent market demand and supply. Sheep producers have the opportunity to choose which lambing system fits their existing operations and lifestyle. The use of economic analysis enables operator to make sound business management decisions. To compare different lambing systems (spring, fall with winter clean-up, and high-fertility fall) in a systematic way, a simulation model was constructed with a fixed forage resource of 50 acres of pasture including typical Virginia mountain pasture plus various amounts of fescue for stockpiling. The simulation included a production calendar; nutritional requirements for ewes, lambs, and artificially reared triplets; growth rates for lambs; lambing distributions; forage growth; and enterprise budgets including income, costs, and returns. A economic analysis was performed for each lambing system with average prices or with plus or minus one standard deviation for prices of corn, SBOM, and market lambs, and price differentials for market lambs across lambing seasons. Comparisons of each lambing systems produced various results. In spring lambing, only 78 ewes could be maintained on the fixed forage resource, while the fall with winter clean-up and high-fertility fall lambing system each had 115 ewes. This result occurred because of limited forage in July and August and higher nutrient requirements for spring lambing in those months. The overall nutrient requirements were higher in the fall with winter clean-up and high-fertility fall lambing than in spring lambing as a result of the increased ewe and lamb numbers. Concentrate consumption by lambs was also greater for fall with winter clean-up and high-fertility fall lambing than for spring lambing because of the increased numbers of lambs. Because of the low number of ewes and lambs, spring system produced the most hay. Labor costs were highest in fall with winter clean-up lambing because of the two lambing seasons. In the economic analysis system, each lambing was compared. With 10-year average prices for market lambs, corn, and SBOM, high-fertility fall lambing had the greatest income ($17,467), followed by fall with winter clean-up lambing ($14,695), and spring lambing ($10,358). This result occurred because high-fertility fall and fall with winter clean-up lambing had more lambs sold at higher market lambs prices than spring lambing. With 10-year average prices for market lambs, corn, and SBOM, high-fertility fall lambing had the highest cost ($7,935), followed by fall with winter clean-up lambing ($7,360), and spring lambing ($6,084). This was the result of increased ewe and lamb numbers in high-fertility fall and fall with winter clean-up lambing than spring lambing. High-fertility fall lambing had the greatest returns ($6,210), followed by fall with winter clean-up lambing ($4,025), and spring lambing ($2,028). On a fixed forage resource, increasing fertility in fall lambing clearly results in increased returns. In this model, forage availability controlled the number of ewes that a lambing system can have because of limited summer growth and had a major impact on profits. Conclusions of Tolman (1993) differed from those found within this thesis. On a per ewe basis, she found that spring lambing to yielded the highest returns whereas this thesis found that high-fertility fall lambing yielded the highest returns. A key difference between this study and that of Tolman (1993) was after weaning this thesis feed fall lambs stockpiled fescue and she feed fall lambs feed in dry lot. Master of Science

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Ibrahim, Mohamed El Hady M. "An Examination of an Integrative Expectancy Model for Auditors' Performance Behaviors Under Time Budget Pressure." Thesis, North Texas State University, 1985. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc331382/.

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In recent years there has been a growing use of expectancy theory to study motivation and performance in accounting environments. Such research efforts have resulted in reporting some inconsistent findings and low explanatory power for the expectancy model. In an attempt to increase the explanatory power of the model, several researchers have suggested the inclusion of nonexpectancy components in the model. This research was undertaken to develop an integrative expectancy model by incorporating some elements of goal setting theory and attribution theory into the expectancy formulation. The study was also designed to provide empirical evidence on the validity of a within-subject design of the proposed model through an empirical investigation of auditors* performance behaviors to meet budgeted time in public accounting firms. Alternative performance behaviors to meet budgeted time were modeled in three choice processes. The first deals with auditors choice to report unfiltered time (i.e. report actual time worked) as opposed to filtered time worked (i.e., underreporting and sign-off behaviors). The second process deals with auditors' choice to engage in underreporting as opposed to sign-off behaviors. The third process deals with auditors' choice to reduce or overrule some audit procedures based on professional judgment. Data were collected using an anonymous questionnaire from a sample of auditors at the staff, senior, and supervisory staff levels of fifty-three national, regional and local accounting firms in the Dallas- Fort Worth area. Data received from 671 participants were analyzed using th Automatic Interaction Detector (AID3) and multiple regression techniques. The findings of this research support the expectancy formulation and its relevancy to the accounting environments. However, five nonexpectancy variables were found to have significant relationships with auditors' choice processes to meet budgeted time. These five variables were supervision, budget feasibility, length of experience, organizational level and firm size classification.

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Martin, Benjamin [Verfasser], and Volker [Akademischer Betreuer] Grimm. "Linking individual-based models and dynamic energy budget theory : lessons for ecology and ecotoxicology / Benjamin Martin. Betreuer: Volker Grimm." Potsdam : Universitätsbibliothek der Universität Potsdam, 2013. http://d-nb.info/1038853052/34.

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Yarian, Mohammad. "Trender inom verksamhetsstyrning." Thesis, KTH, Skolan för informations- och kommunikationsteknik (ICT), 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-128717.

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Idag styr och planerar de flesta organisationer i någon form, det gäller både den privata sektorn som den offentliga sektorn. Det finns olika sätt och modeller man kan använda för att styra en verksamhet t.ex. genom balanserad styrkort. Styrning startas oftast från centrala direktiv som t ex en affärs/verksamhetsplan, budget, prognos, resultatmål, avkastnings mål etc. Styrningen kan baseras på mer eller mindre komplexa styrmodeller och hanteras rent praktiskt via någon form av systemstöd men ibland endast med hjälp av Word- och Exceldokument. Gemensamt för alla styrmodeller är att de kräver en uppföljning och rapportering för att kunna göra någon nytta. Detta projekt uppstod genom en förfrågan om projektets ämne passade ihop med företagets behov av aktuell information kring hur företag och organisationer styr och planerar sin verksamhet och vilka systemstöd som används för detta ändamål. Projektet var ett uppdrag hos företaget Konsultnet Scandinavian AB. Mitt uppdrag var att hjälpa företaget med att arbeta fram en analys av de trender som finns inom verksamhetsstyrning både inom näringslivet samt offentlig sektor. I uppdraget ingick att analysera hur verksamhetsstyrning sker rent praktiskt och vilka systemstöd som används för detta ändamål. Detta projekt innefattar både ett verksamhetsperspektiv och ett systemperspektiv. Resultatet av uppdraget skall vara till hjälp för företaget i arbetet med att utveckla ett nytt systemstöd för budget, prognos och verksamhetsplanering. Metoden som använts för inhämtning utav information, är i form av både enkäter och intervjuer. Tanken med enkäterna var att i första hand få en grundläggande information om organisationernas verksamhetsstyrning och vilka systemstöd de använde sig av inom den finansiella och operativa planeringen. Efter att ha fått en grundläggande syn på de organisationer som besvarat enkäten analyserades svaren, vilket resulterade i from utav följdfrågor. Eftersom projektet var tidsbegränsat fanns inte möjligheten till att gå vidare med alla organisationer. Istället valdes ett antal organisationer bestående av både offentliga och privata för att gå vidare med följdfrågor, det vill säga intervju. Detta arbete har framtagits genom användning av en lättrörlig metod, det vill säga en metod som ger stöd till att vara anpassbar och även flexibel efter de varierande arbetsförhållandena som uppstår under projektets gång. Denna lättrörliga metod bestämdes redan vid början av arbetet. Metoden kallas för EBREM (Event-Based Requirement Elicitation Method) som inriktar sig för att identifiera eventuella risker som kan framkomma kring arbetsprocessen. Slutsatsen som jag kommit fram till inom detta arbete är att det finns en varierande syn på vad verksamhetsstyrning egentligen innebär och hur styrningen ska ske rent praktiskt. Det som har varit väldigt gemensamt hos enkätföretagen är deras uppföljning utav finansiella planer. Today, most organizations control and plan in some way, this yields both for the private sector as well as the public sector. There are different ways and models which can be used to control an organization, for example through balanced scorecard. Control is usually launched from central directives, such as business/operational plan, budget, forecast, performance, yield goals etc. Control can be based on more or less complex control models and is handled usefully via some form of system, but sometimes just with help of Word – and Excel – documents. Common to all control models is that they require a follow up and reporting in order to do any good. This project arose by that the request about the topic of the project matched the company´s need for timely information about how companies and organizations control and plan their activities and the support systems that are used for this purpose. The project was a mission from the company, Konsultnet Scandinavian AB. My mission was to help the company to develop an analysis of the trends that are in performance management both in business and the public sector. The assignment was to analyze how performance management is practical and which support systems are used for this purpose. This project was screened both a business perspective and a system perspective. The mission will be a help to the company in the process of developing a new system for budgeting, forecasting and business management. The methodology used for collecting and analyzing information, is in the form of both surveys and interviews. The idea of the survey was to get basic overview information about other organizations performance management and the system support they use within their financial and operational planning. After getting a basic knowledge from the organizations who had answered the survey, an analysis took place which resulted in supplementary questions. Since the project work had a deadline, it was not possible to proceed with all of the organizations. Instead, a number of organizations were chosen, including both private and public organizations. This project has been developed using an agile method, which gives support to be adaptable and flexible to the varying working conditions which takes place during the project. This agile method was decided in the beginning of this work. The method is named EBREM and stands for (Event-Based Requirement Elicitation Method) which focuses to identify any risks that may emerge around this work. The conclusion which I have reached in this work is that there are a variety of views on what performance management really means and how management should be done in practice. What has been very common in survey companies is their follow-up of total financial plans.

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Priestley, Kory James. "Use of First-Principle Numerical Models to Enhance the Understanding of the Operational Analysis of Space-Based Earth Radiation Budget Instruments." Diss., Virginia Tech, 1997. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/30662.

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NASA's Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) program is a key component of the Earth Observing System (EOS). The CERES Proto-Flight Model (PFM) instrument is to be launched on NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) spacecraft in November, 1997. Each CERES instrument will contain three scanning thermistor bolometer radiometers to monitor the longwave, 5.0 to >100 microns, and shortwave, 0.3 to 5.0 microns, components of the Earth's radiative energy budget. High-level, first-principle dynamic electrothermal models of the CERES radiometric channels have been completed under NASA sponsorship. These first-principle models consist of optical, thermal and electrical modules. Optical characterization of the channels is ensured by Monte-Carlo-based ray-traces. Accurate thermal and electrical characterization is assured by transient finite-difference formulations. This body of research presents the evolution of these models by outlining their development and validation. Validation of the models is accomplished by simulating the ground calibration process of the actual instruments and verifying that the models accurately predict instrument performance. The result of this agreement is a high confidence in the model to predict other aspects of instrument performance. Ph. D.

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Zvariková, Alexandra. "Rozpočty obcí v ČR – ekonometrická analýza s využitím panelových dát." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2017. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-359326.

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This paper analyses a panel data of 198 Czech municipalities for the period 2003-2015. The aim is to define determinants of municipalities' tax revenue budgeting errors using static panel data models with fixed and random effect. Czech municipalities have a tendency to underestimate both total and tax revenues. On average, budgeted tax revenues are about 7 % lower than collected revenues during the period under examination. Such action could entail less transparency in budgeting process. Results indicate that structure of tax revenues also plays a role in explaining forecast errors. Further, the analysis shows the impact of electoral cycle and macroeconomic variables on budget deviations.

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Nicholson, Lindsey. "Modelling melt beneath supraglacial debris : implications for the climatic response of debris-covered glaciers." Thesis, University of St Andrews, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/10023/10264.

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Understanding how debris-covered glaciers respond to climate is necessary in order to evaluate future water resources and glacier flood hazard potential, and to make sense of the glacier chronology in mountain regions, In order achieve this, it is necessary to improve the current understanding of how surface debris affects glacier ablation rate, and to develop methods by which the ablation of debris-covered glaciers can be predicted under various climatic scenarios. This thesis develops a numerical surface energy balance model that uses simple meteorological data to calculate melt beneath a debris layer of given thickness and thermal characteristics. Field data from three contrasting sites demonstrate that the assumptions made within the model concerning the thermal properties of supraglacial debris are valid during most ablation conditions and that model performance is considerably better than previous models. Model results indicate that the effect of debris on melt rate is highly dependent on meteorological conditions. Under colder climates, thin debris can accelerate ice melt by extending the ablation period at both diurnal and seasonal scales. However, in milder mid- summer conditions, even a very thin debris cover inhibits melt rate compared to that of exposed ice. The new melt model is applied to produce the first quantified ablation gradients for debris- covered glaciers, and to model the evolution of ice surfaces under a debris layer of variable thickness. Modelled ablation gradients are qualitatively similar to hypothetical ones outlined previously, and quantitatively similar to those measured in the field. The ablation gradients are used to explore the factors affecting the response of debris-covered glaciers to climate change. Beneath a debris layer of variable thickness, the melt model produced ablation topography, as observed in the field, which underwent topographic inversion over time in response to debris redistribution. Debris thickness variability was found to cause calculated ablation rate to increase compared to that calculated using a mean debris thickness by one to two orders of magnitude, suggesting that melt calculations made on the basis of spatially averaged debris thickness may be inaccurate.

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Wang, Qin. "Review on Mechanistic Effect Models Used in Ecological Risk Assessment of Pesticides According to the European Food Safety Authority Guidance." Thesis, Högskolan i Halmstad, Akademin för ekonomi, teknik och naturvetenskap, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hh:diva-38301.

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In ecological risk assessment, mechanistic effect models (MEMs) are thought to overcome the limitation of standard laboratory single species test by accurately extrapolating the models to population-level. This review introduces the basic theory of MEMs-dynamic energy budget theory which can connect with toxicokinetic/ toxicodynamic models to describe the interaction of toxicants and organisms. This review summarizes some typical MEMs which simulate different scenarios, pesticides and species, and compared their modelling performance according to the guidance on good effect models of European Food Safety Authority, in order to judge if it is accounting for all modelling steps. In addition, a summary of the linkage of MEMs in pesticides ecological risk assessment have been discussed, especially evaluating the linkage results of ‘MODELINK’ workshop. However, there is no genuine application of MEMs in pesticides ecological risk assessment in real world today, because there is no validated model built with acceptable predictive power to motivate the ecological assessors or shareholders to use effect models confidently. Therefore, there is still a long way to develop an effect model which is valid enough and has strong prediction power.

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Pittermannová, Martina. "Kalkulace nákladů jako východisko tvorby rozpočtů ve vybrané firmě." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta podnikatelská, 2010. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-222436.

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The diploma thesis focuses on specification of cost calculation and budgets in selected company. Specifies cost models and costing system based on analysis of costs in bachelor thesis. Defines budgets, budget types and budget method and compares theoretical knowledge with reality in selected company. It contains suggestions of costs and budgets improvement.

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Fabri-Ruiz, Salomé. "Modèles de distribution et changements environnementaux : Application aux faunes d'échinides de l'océan Austral et écorégionalisation." Thesis, Bourgogne Franche-Comté, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018UBFCK070/document.

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Les modifications environnementales qui affectent aujourd'hui les milieux marins recouvrent des problématiques scientifiques et sociétales majeures, d'autant que ces changements devraient s'accélérer au cours du 21ème siècle. Comprendre et anticiper la réponse de la biodiversité marine à ces changements représente un enjeu scientifique d'actualité. Les approches biogéographiques et macroécologiques constituent un cadre scientifique dans lequel il est possible d'étudier, de décrire, et de comprendre les motifs de distribution des espèces à large échelle et d'estimer leur évolution possible face aux changements environnementaux. C'est notamment le cas dans l'océan Austral où les effets du changement climatique se font déjà sentir et où les modifications environnementales associées pourraient avoir des effets profonds sur la structure et le fonctionnement des écosystèmes. Malgré de récents efforts d'échantillonnage, nos connaissances sur la distribution des espèces dans l’océan Austral comptent encore de nombreuses lacunes attribuables au caractère récent des découvertes, à l'isolement et à l'éloignement de cet océan d'accès difficiles. Dans ce contexte, les objectifs de cette thèse consistaient à mieux comprendre les motifs de distribution d'espèces à l’échelle de l’océan Austral, à mettre en évidence les facteurs qui en sont à l’origine et enfin, à évaluer l’impact du changement climatique sur leur distribution. Pour cela, différents types de modèles de niche écologique (MNE) ont été employés. Les échinides (oursins), organismes communs des communautés benthiques de l’océan Austral ont servi de modèle d'étude pour ce travail Current environmental changes, which impact marine environments, cover major scientific and societal issues, especially as these environmental changes are expected to accelerate along the 21st century. Understanding and forecasting the response of marine biodiversity to these changes is a pregnant scientific issue. Biogeographic and macroecological approaches provide a scientific framework for that purpose. They allow describing and understanding species distribution patterns at large spatial scale as well as estimating their potential shift with regards to environmental change. This is particularly true in the Southern Ocean, where the effects of climate change are already occurring and where environmental changes could have a deep and manifold impact on the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems. Despite recent sampling efforts, our knowledge of the Southern Ocean species distributions still faces many shortcomings due to the rather recent discovery of this ocean, its isolation and remoteness along with difficult access conditions. In this context, the aims of this thesis are to better understand the factors that drive species distribution patterns at the Southern Ocean scale, and to assess the impact of climate change on their distribution. For this purpose, different types of Species Distribution Models (SDM) have been used. Echinoids (sea urchins), which are common organisms of benthic communities in the Southern Ocean, have been used as a biological model for this work

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Hu, Xiaogang. "A hydrological analysis of icing formation /." Thesis, McGill University, 1996. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=42054.

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Icings are common hydrological phenomena in arctic and subarctic regions. Their bodies are made up of the accumulation of ice layers formed by the freezing of overflow water during the winter season. Icing formation is a process involving a complex system of thermodynamics and hydrodynamics. In this thesis, the formation mechanics of river icings and ground icings are studied in terms of both thermal and hydrological processes. The energy exchange systems during icing layer formation involve two ice water interfaces and some intra-layer water flow. Using energy balance analysis, this research finds that the outgoing energy components can be ranked according to their importance, with sensible heat being the most important component, radiation heat loss being of secondary importance, and latent heat loss being the least important factor. Further, this research illustrates that the heat conduction between the underlying ice and a newly formed icing layer is time dependent. For example, during the first half cycle of icing layer formation, heat is conducted into the underlying ice, but during the second half of the cycle the heat is conducted in an opposite direction. During icing layer formation, the energy input is supplied mainly by water and incoming solar radiation. Intra-layer running water provides a significant amount of energy when air temperatures are milder, but its significance decreases when air temperatures become colder. Solar radiation during the day may also play an important role in the energy supply regime. River icing formation involves several hydrological processes. The location of a river icing is basically controlled by the channel slope. The damming effect of icing mass plays a significant role in the extension of the icing body, especially in the upstream direction. River icings grow slowly, and generally experience three stages of development, namely the 'freeze-up' stage, 'obstruction' stage and 'overflow' stage, the third stage dominating icing growth. The formation of each icing layer is virtually a small-scale reproduction of these three stages. The model simulation shows that the thickness of icing accumulation increases with an increase in the initial water depth in the channel, but simulation also shows that there is a limiting threshold. The thickness of icing accumulation decreases when the initial channel water depth exceeds this threshold. The growth of an icing is an event-dominated discontinuous process. Even during one icing layer formation, simultaneous growth occurs only within a very limited distance. At a specific location, icing growth is related temporally only over a short period of time. As a discontinuous process, icing spreading and thickening during an overflow event depends entirely on the climatic and topographical conditions. Even though icing layering is influenced by many variables, under small discharge rates, as in the case of ground icing growth, statistical analyses show that the mean spreading length of an overflow event can be described efficiently by five variables: discharge, the temperature of the water, the product of air temperature and wind speed, air temperature and the icing surface slope previous to overflow. The maximum spreading length, however, may only be controlled by four variables: discharge, water temperature, air temperature and the product of air temperature and wind speed. Under field conditions, when wind speed is not measured, this wind related variable may be dropped with only a small decrease in confidence level.

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Koman, Martin. "Politický cyklus v zemích EU." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2010. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-72251.

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The aim of my thesis "Politic cycle in the European Union countries" is to analyse the possibility of existence of a politic cycle in chosen countries of the EU. The firs half of my thesis is introducing the issue of the public choise theory and different views at this theory together with models of politic cycle. The other part I am dealing with is political and economic backrounds of chosen countried in closer detail and after data analysis of politic-economic development I would like to try to point out possible existence of political cycle. I will use model of politic cycle based on budget policy above all in the analysis.

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Hilger, Ludwig [Verfasser], Michael [Akademischer Betreuer] Becht, and Tobias [Akademischer Betreuer] Heckmann. "Quantification and regionalization of geomorphic processes using spatial models and high-resolution topographic data: A sediment budget of the Upper Kauner Valley, Ötztal Alps. / Ludwig Hilger ; Michael Becht, Tobias Heckmann." Eichstätt-Ingolstadt : Katholische Universität Eichstätt-Ingolstadt, 2017. http://d-nb.info/1139049062/34.

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Farajov, Murad. "Contingent Budget Preference Experiment." Thesis, Örebro universitet, Handelshögskolan vid Örebro universitet, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-15965.

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An economic literature concerns instruments to improve the preference elicitation methods for the reform-based governmental programs. We construct an instrument for the budget allocation method using a Cobb-Douglas functional form. We apply the instrument to the survey data which is collected for Swedish Recreational Fishing Industry to elicit the preferences for governmental management actions. We analyze the elasticity or weights in the instrument by the binary logit and censored regression models and by comparing the significant estimates by the gross and net effects we get results which increase credence to the instrument we apply. I am heartily thankful to my supervisor, Thomas Laitila, whose guidance and support from the initial to the final level enabled me to develop the thesis.More, I offer my regards to Anders Lunander who supported me in any respect during the completion of the thesis.

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Freitas, Filho Paulo Roberto de Sousa. "Efeitos do investimento em infraestrutura e de suas formas de financiamento no Brasil: uma abordagem de equilíbrio geral computável." Universidade Federal da Paraíba, 2012. http://tede.biblioteca.ufpb.br:8080/handle/tede/5017.

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Made available in DSpace on 2015-05-08T14:44:55Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 arquivototal.pdf: 7649365 bytes, checksum: ee27bd58facf83365ed85471f6231dbf (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-11-06 Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior Although infrastructure investment has a central role in economic development, it declined considerably in Brazil during the 1980 and 1990 decades. At the beginning of the 2000s it amounted to 2.2 \% of GDP, while in China and Chile it amounted to 7.3 \% and 6.5 \% of GDP, respectively. The private investment in infrastructure was not enough to offset the decline in public investment, which occurred because of the government's effort to achieve primary surpluses. Thus, the government faces a dilemma between balancing the budget and increasing the investment. In order to achieve the two goals, the investment must be financed. The aim of this work is to evaluate the impact of an increase in the infrastructure investment and its financing in the Brazilian economy. To do it, a dynamic computable general equilibrium model is used. It is simulated an increase in the investment for two years, equal to 1 \% of the GDP. The results show that, in the first three years, the increase in the GDP growth rate is higher when the investment is financed by reducing the government consumption (0.73 \%), it is moderate when the financing is done through the tax on production (0.33 \%) or foreign savings (0.34 \%), and it is lower when the financing is done by increasing the income tax (0.28 \%). Construction was the fastest growing sector (2.39 \% on average in the first 3 years). The contribution of this work was to obtain clear and useful results for policy making, enhance the understanding of the effects of infrastructure investment financing in the Brazilian economy, and analyze the sectorial impacts of this investment. Embora o investimento em infraestrutura tenha um papel central no desenvolvimento econômico, ele reduziu-se muito no Brasil nas décadas 1980 e 1990. No início da década de 2000 equivalia a 2,2%do PIB, enquanto que na China e no Chile correspondia a 7,3% e 6,5%do PIB, respectivamente. O investimento privado em infraestrutura, não foi suficiente para compensar a redução do investimento público, que ocorreu por causa do esforço do governo para obter superávits primários. Assim, o governo enfrenta um dilema entre obter o equilíbrio orçamentário ou aumentar o investimento público. Para que os dois objetivos sejam alcançados é preciso que o investimento seja financiado. O objetivo desse trabalho é avaliar o impacto do aumento do investimento em infraestrutura e de seu financiamento na economia brasileira. Para isso, utiliza-se um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável dinâmico. E simulado o aumento do investimento durante 2 anos, equivalente a 1 % do PIB. Os resultados mostram que, nos três primeiros anos, o aumento da taxa de crescimento do PIB é maior quando o investimento é financiado pela redução do consumo do governo (0,73 %), é moderada quando o financiamento é feito através do imposto sobre a produção (0,33 %) ou da poupança externa (0,34 %) e é menor quando o financiamento é feito através do aumento do imposto de renda (0,28 %). O setor que mais cresceu foi o de construção (2,39% em média nos 3 primeiros anos). A contribuição desse trabalho foi obter resultados claros e úteis para a tomada de decisões políticas, ampliar a compreensão dos efeitos do financiamento do investimento em infraestrutura na economia brasileira e analisar os impactos setoriais de tal investimento.

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Yanik, Yeliz. "The Twin Deficits Hypothesis: An Empirical Investigation." Master's thesis, METU, 2006. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12608286/index.pdf.

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This study investigates the validity of the twin deficits hypothesis for the Turkish quarterly data over the 1988:1-2005:2 periods. To this end, we consider a VAR variable space containing budget deficits, current account deficits, real output, real interest rates and real exchange rates and employ cointegration, equilibrium/error correction mechanism techniques along with Granger-non-causality tests and impulse response analyses. The empirical results from decompositions of the budget and current account deficits into their cyclical and structural components suggest that both CAD and BD are counter-cyclical. The twin deficit hypothesis, consistent with the conventional Mundell-Flemming framework, postulates that current account and budget deficits move together in the long run and the causality runs from the former to the latter. The results from Engle-Granger and Johansen cointegration procedures support either the twin divergence or the Ricardian equivalence postulations but not the twin deficits hypothesis. Current account deficits and budget deficits are also found to be jointly endogenous. The short-run impacts of budget deficits on current account deficits are found to be mainly through the real exchange rate and real interest rate channels.

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Menezes, Isabelle Pinto CamarÃo. "Uma proposta de avaliaÃÃo da execuÃÃo orÃamentÃria do estado do CearÃ: a eficÃcia do gasto pÃblico por secretaria de governo." Universidade Federal do CearÃ, 2014. http://www.teses.ufc.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=14632.

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nÃo hÃ Considerando a importÃncia da eficÃcia na gestÃo do OrÃamento PÃblico, objetivou-se verificar o perfil da execuÃÃo orÃamentÃria nas diversas secretarias do governo do Estado do CearÃ entre 2008 e 2011, com o intuito de subsidiar os gestores pÃblicos em seu processo de tomada de decisÃo. Dados dos sistemas corporativos da Controladoria e Ouvidoria Geral do Estado, compreendendo os valores autorizados em Lei OrÃamentÃria e empenhados, foram combinados a modelos economÃtricos com dados em painel e quatro diferentes tÃcnicas de estimaÃÃo, para investigar o que se definiu como eficÃcia da execuÃÃo orÃamentÃria de um ÃrgÃo de governo. Os resultados das estimaÃÃes permitem inferir com elevado grau de robustez que: i) a expertise do ÃrgÃo na gestÃo dos recursos determina positivamente a eficÃcia nos exercÃcios subsequentes; ii) o nÃmero de constataÃÃes de auditoria Ã um obstÃculo Ã eficÃcia na execuÃÃo dos recursos e iii) a participaÃÃo dos convÃnios nÃo contribui com a elevaÃÃo da eficÃcia na gestÃo dos recursos autorizados Ãs secretarias. Em conjunto, os resultados sugerem que a transferÃncia de tecnologia entre os ÃrgÃos de governo se mostra como a principal estratÃgia a ser seguida pelos gestores pÃblicos estaduais. Considering the importance of effectiveness management of the public budget, aimed to verify the profile of budget execution in the various departments of the CearÃ State Government between 2008 and 2011, in order to subsidize public managers in their decision making process. Data from enterprise systems of the General Comptroller and Ombudsman of CearÃ State, including amounts authorized and committed in Budget Law, were combined a econometric models with panel data and four different estimation techniques to investigate what was defined as efficient of budget execution at an organ of government. The estimation results allow us to infer with a high degree of robustness: i) the expertise of the Board in the management of resources positively determines the efficient in subsequent years, ii) the number of audit findings is an obstacle to the efficient enforcement resources and iii) the covenants participation does not contribute to increase the efficient in the management of resources committed to the departments. Together, the results suggest that technology transfer between government bodies shown as the main strategy to be followed by state public managers.

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Ansah, Yaw Boamah. "Enhancing Profitability of Pond Aquaculture in Ghana through Resource Management and Environmental Best Management Practices." Diss., Virginia Tech, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/51122.

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The accelerating pace of growth of aquaculture in sub-Saharan Africa has received much positive appraisal because of the potential of the industry to contribute to economic development and food security by providing jobs and animal protein. Adoption of best management practices (BMPs) holds the potential to ameliorate the related environmental impacts of aquaculture, such as in the amounts of nutrients and sediment that will enter natural water bodies from earthen pond effluents. The goals of this study were to characterize adoption of aquaculture BMPs on small-scale, pond-based farms in Ghana, and to assess selected economic, social, and environmental outcomes of BMP adoption. Two BMPs: 1) water reuse, and 2) commercial floating feeds, were investigated for adoption by pond-based fish farmers in Ghana. I conducted my study in Ghana using on-farm experiments involving intensive monitoring of water quality and growth of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) over two production cycles. Additionally, I administered a baseline survey to 393 (and a follow-up survey to 160) fish farmers. I determined the best model for modelling farmed Nile tilapia growth with multi-model inference based on Akaike information criterion (AIC), the profitability of adopting BMPs with stochastic enterprise budgets and, social welfare impact with the Economic-Surplus model. I used a Markov model to predict the equilibrium rate of adoption of the two BMPs and determined the impact of BMP adoption on the reduction of pollutant loading with the Minimum-Data method of the Tradeoffs Analysis (TOA-MD). My results showed that the logistic model is a better alternative to the von Bertalanffy model for modelling the growth of Oreochromis niloticus under pond aquaculture conditions. There were no significant differences in fish weight between the water re-use BMP and the use of new water. Adoption of the commercial floating feed BMP resulted in a 100% increase in fish final weight and yield, and in higher profitability, compared to the sinking feed type. Probability of making a profit was highest (72%) in the scenario with commercial feed and self-financing. Net present values (NPV) of about US$ 11 million and US$ 375 million could be obtained from the adoption of commercial floating feed and Genetically-Improved Farm Tilapia (GIFT) strain, respectively, in Ghana. Hence, any innovation that has a significant impact on fish yield also will have a significant impact on mean NPV and social welfare. However, I identified a number of potential negative ecological and genetic impacts exist from introducing the GIFT strain into Africa from Asia. Although considered low-intensity production systems, nutrients and solids in study ponds were found to be higher than levels expected in intensive culture ponds by wide margins. Pond water quality was significantly higher with commercial floating feed. The water-reuse BMP also prevented pollutants from leaving ponds altogether for the number of cycles for which pond water was reused, especially if associated BMPs such as rainfall capture and avoidance of water exchange are observed. Significant reductions in the loading of all water quality variables (nitrogen, phosphorus, solids, and BOD5) could be achieved with the adoption of the recommended feed type in Ghana. Adoption of the water reuse BMP has the potential to cause pollution reductions of 200% - 3,200% above that from the floating feed BMP. The strongest influence on the combined adoption of these BMPs were from : farmer's awareness of the feed BMP, perceived necessity and relative profitability of the water reuse BMP, and farmer's years of experience. A combination of central media (workshops), demonstrations, and lateral diffusion was found to be the most effective channel for disseminating these BMPs. Maximum adoption rate of the feed BMPs was estimated to be 38% - 58%. Also, US$ 6,000/year and US$12,000/year need to be paid per 0.6 ha pond surface area to push adoption of the feed BMP to 50% and 70%, respectively. Hence, to ensure the successful adoption of aquaculture BMPs, I recommend that regular well-planned workshops be organized to create awareness and a conducive atmosphere to target farmers at multiple stages of the innovation decision process. Incentives and effective dissemination will encourage the adoption of these and other environmental BMPs. Feed costs need to be lowered in order to encourage the adoption of commercial floating feed in Ghana. Future analyses could quantify the differences in production costs between using the two water types, to reveal the possible higher relative profitability of pond water reuse over draining ponds after each production cycle. Also, African governments are advised to commission rigorous baseline and ecological risk analyses before adoption of the GIFT strain. Improvements in management practices and infrastructure could increase the yield and profitability of the local strains even if genetically-improved strains are not introduced. Ph. D.

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Owen, Richard. "Motion picture production : A micro-budget model." Thesis, Federation University Australia, 2016. http://researchonline.federation.edu.au/vital/access/HandleResolver/1959.17/159080.

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The film industry plays an important cultural and economic role in Australia. However, the film industry in Australia has struggled for many years under a subsidy-driven government intervention process that creates a high degree of dependence on a subsidy-centric model. Motion picture production costs worldwide have risen dramatically over the last decade with Hollywood production budgets commonly exceeding $100 million. Australia as a nation has a proven capability to produce respectable motion pictures at varying production budgets, although this capacity has become entrenched with taxpayers’ money. Historically, subsidy-driven industries in Australia trend towards collapse due primarily to cyclical fiscal deficits and changing funding imperatives at the Commonwealth level. As a PhD by exegesis, the focus of this research was to create, as well as evaluate, a new model of film production that would not be dependent on subsidies. This study evaluated a number of factors that were relevant to establishing a viable micro-budget model. Micro-budget films have received little research attention, with the focus being on major films. This research examined an alternative model, through the creation of a feature-length micro-budget film, called Stakes, and assessed it across a range of criterion to determine whether Australia’s film industry could be strengthened and potentially become self-sufficient. The resulting motion picture premièred in Australian cinemas on October 29th 2015. The justification, methods and results are discussed in detail throughout this exegesis providing strong evidence in favour of the viability for a micro-budget segment in the Australian film industry. Such a model could reduce the risk of Australia’s film industry collapsing if subsidies are reduced or abolished. Thus, this research has significant implications for Australia’s film industry and also contributes strongly to scholarship through providing crucial information on micro-budget films. Doctor of Philosophy

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Smith, Nita Jane. "An ASTER Digital Elevation Model (DEM) for the Darwin-Hatherton Glacial System, Antarctica." Thesis, University of Canterbury. Geography, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/1480.

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The Darwin-Hatherton glacial system is an outlet glacial system in the Transantarctic Mountains, Antarctica, which drains ice from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet into the Ross Ice Shelf. This research provides remotely sensed data that can be used in modeling research for the Darwin-Hatherton glacial system, which in turn can be used in mass balance research for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Two improved digital elevation models (DEM) are produced to cover the lower Darwin Glacier and to cover the upper Darwin and Hatherton Glaciers. The new improved DEMs are generated from Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) satellite data, with a resolution of 45 m. To produce the two final DEMs, multiple DEMs are firstly adjusted to remove systematic errors and are then stacked and averaged to increase the accuracy and produce the final two DEMs. For the lower Darwin Glacier, 5 DEMs were averaged and in the upper Darwin and Hatherton Glaciers, 6 DEMs were averaged. The accuracy is quantified by a remaining error of + 9 m for the lower Darwin Glacier DEM and + 37 m for the upper Darwin and Hatherton Glaciers DEM. This is a significant improvement from the existing 200 m resolution Radarsat Antarctic mapping project (RAMPv2) DEM which has a remaining error of + 138 m over the lower Darwin Glacier and + 152 m over the upper Darwin and Hatherton Glaciers. The accuracy is assessed by comparing the ASTER and RAMPv2 DEMs to highly accurate ice, cloud and land elevation satellite (ICESat) laser altimetry data. A 15 m resolution, true colour, orthorectified image is provided for the entire Darwin-Hatherton glacial system from ASTER satellite imagery. The DEMs used to orthorectify the ASTER satellite imagery are the two new 45 m resolution ASTER DEMs. Lastly feature tracking was explored as a method for measuring surface ice velocity. This research shows that feature tracking is unsuitable for the Darwin-Hatherton glacial system if using 15 m resolution satellite imagery over a 1 to 4 year time period.

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Gundayao, Jenniffer D. "Development of a Navy recruiting vehicle budget model." Thesis, Monterey, Calif. : Springfield, Va. : Naval Postgraduate School ; Available from National Technical Information Service, 1997. http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA342560.

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Thesis (M.S. in Management) Naval Postgraduate School, December 1997. "December 1997." Thesis advisor(s): Stephen L. Mehay, Shu S. Liao. Includes bibliographical references (p. 49). Also available online.

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Rubio, Pedro, Francisco Fernandez, and Francisco Jimenez. "REAL TIME C BAND LINK BUDGET MODEL CALCULATION." International Foundation for Telemetering, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/624184.

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The purpose of this paper is to show the integration of the transmission gain values of a telemetry transmission antenna according to its relative position and integrate them in the C band link budget, in order to obtain an accuracy vision of the link. Once our C band link budget was fully performed to model our link and ready to work in real time with several received values (GPS position, roll, pitch and yaw) from the aircraft and other values from the Ground System (azimuth and elevation of the reception telemetry antenna), it was necessary to avoid a constant value of the transmitter antenna and estimate its values with better accuracy depending of the relative beam angles between the transmitter antenna and receiver antenna. Keeping in mind an aircraft is not a static telecommunication system it was necessary to have a real time value of the transmission gain. In this paper, we will show how to perform a real time link budget (C band).

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Gloe, Matthew. "Evaluating a Process-Based Mitigation Wetland Water Budget Model." Thesis, Virginia Tech, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/76860.

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Correctly predicting water levels is key to the success of created wetlands. The Pierce method is a commonly used technique for modeling and designing mitigation wetlands that assumes minimal groundwater interaction with the wetland. This technique for mitigation wetland design relies primarily on surface water inputs, assuming a relatively impermeable substrate (perched system), and level pool routing. The Pierce method was applied utilizing two different evapotranspiration estimation methods: Thornthwaite (IPM) and FAO-56 Penman-Monteith (IPM-FAO). A second process-based model, utilizing MODFLOW-2005, was constructed to better predict water levels in mitigation wetlands. Modeled processes included groundwater movement and vegetative resistance to flow, which can be a significant factor in wetland water levels. The two versions of the Pierce method were compared to the process-based wetland representation developed in MODFLOW-2005 using data from an existing mitigation wetland. Output from these models were compared to observed data from an existing mitigation wetland near Manassas, VA, USA. Results indicate the use of Thornthwaite's method to estimate wetland evapotranspiration (ET) does not capture the timing or magnitude of wetland ET losses, leading to over-prediction of wetland water levels during the growing season. The Modflow-based approach resulted in more accurate hydroperiod predictions on a yearly basis than the Pierce Method. However, the Integrated Pierce method model, utilizing the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith method of estimating potential evapotranspiration instead of Thornthwaite's method most accurately predicted water levels during the growing season (March-October). Master of Science

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Lo, Cheng Sik-sze. "Incrementalism and public budgeting in Hong Kong myth or model? /." Click to view the E-thesis via HKUTO, 1989. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record/B31976037.

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Haghighat, Reza. "An optimization model to allocate budget in school rehabilitation projects." Thesis, California State University, Long Beach, 2015. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=1589619.

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Modernization and rehabilitation of existing school facilities is a key factor to increase the life expectancy of facilities and to benefit students by increasing educational standards. Since United States' last recession in 2009, many school districts have been confronted with difficulty in funding their projects. The existing process of decision making on distributing budget is subjective and depends on the judgment of decision makers. To avoid the errors involved in the existing approach, an optimization model is developed in this research study to optimize the project selection. This optimization system increases the horizontal and vertical equity in the educational system while it reflects the importance of different categories of facility projects and the various educational demands of students. Two powerful methods of Genetic Algorithm and Dynamic Programming is utilized to solve the optimization problem. Moreover, the proficiency of the developed model is shown in a case study.

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Al-Zayani, Salman Rashid. "Road safety budget optimisation model for the state of Bahrain." Thesis, University of Leicester, 1992. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/31803.

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The aim of this study is to develop a procedure that can be used for the optimal allocation of funds available for road safety remedial measures in the State of Bahrain. The study reviews the nature of the road accidents problem in Bahrain in sufficient detail to highlight the relative magnitude ·and seriousness of the problem. Factors comprising the total (comprehensive) cost of road safety remedial measures with special application to Bahrain (including the capital and maintenance costs of the remedial measures and accident component of road user costs) are identified and analysed. A methodology for identifying the most hazardous locations on the road network is then developed. Using this methodology preliminary and primary rankings of sites are determined. 70 hazardous locations are identified and analysed. A programme of 26 countermeasures is then drawn up and the effectiveness of 10 different types of alternative improvements is evaluated with special emphasis on the regression-to-mean effect. The other 16 countermeasures effectiveness estimates are adopted from other sources. A Budget Optimisation Model Computer Programme (BOM) is then developed using multi-stage dynamic programming for selecting an optimal set of schemes under a single-period budget constraint. Within the constraint that it must choose only one alternative for each location, BOM selects a group of alternatives that produces an optimal overall net present value (NPV) within the resource constraint level. BOM is then used to determine the optimum combination of improvement of the 70 sites with different budgets. In all budgets, BOM searches throughout the list of projects for those alternatives which would provide the greatest NPV. Projects with different budgets are clearly economically viable and viability is further demonstrated by the sensitivity tests which are subsequently carried out. Finally, it is shown that improvements selected by a dynamic programming can yield a higher return for a given budget than those chosen entirely on the basis of benefit-cost ratio.

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Mendonça, Anna Cecília Assis. "Distribuição orçamentária da Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora: uma proposta de revisão do modelo." Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora (UFJF), 2016. https://repositorio.ufjf.br/jspui/handle/ufjf/5600.

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Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2017-08-17T15:37:45Z No. of bitstreams: 1 annaceciliaassismendonca.pdf: 1009572 bytes, checksum: e3decc4da755d0f1c1b84ffb44806d74 (MD5) Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2017-08-17T15:55:11Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 annaceciliaassismendonca.pdf: 1009572 bytes, checksum: e3decc4da755d0f1c1b84ffb44806d74 (MD5) Made available in DSpace on 2017-08-17T15:55:11Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 annaceciliaassismendonca.pdf: 1009572 bytes, checksum: e3decc4da755d0f1c1b84ffb44806d74 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-12-21 A presente dissertação foi desenvolvida no âmbito do Mestrado Profissional em Gestão e Avaliação da Educação (PPGP) do Centro de Políticas Públicas e Avaliação da Educação da Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora (CAEd/UFJF). O caso de gestão estudado discutiu a distribuição interna, na Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora (UFJF), dos recursos recebidos através de descentralização orçamentária do Ministério da Educação. Os objetivos definidos para esta pesquisa foram descrever o modelo de distribuição orçamentária aplicado atualmente na UFJF, analisá-lo de forma a aferir como os critérios utilizados têm impactado efetivamente na distribuição e avaliar e comparar o modelo de descentralização orçamentária interno adotado em outras cinco Instituições Federais de Ensino Superior. Após essas reflexões, foi proposto um plano de ação a fim de tornar o modelo de distribuição orçamentária na UFJF mais atual e aperfeiçoado, de acordo com a expansão física e de pessoal ocorridas em decorrência da adesão ao Programa de Reestruturação e Expansão das Universidades Federais (REUNI). O Plano de Ação Educacional sugeriu a adoção de um modelo para a distribuição interna dos recursos oriundos do MEC através de descentralização de forma mais equânime. A metodologia desta pesquisa se caracteriza como qualitativa, uma vez que foi utilizada a análise comparativa entre alguns modelos de distribuição, a partir do emprego da pesquisa documental e bibliográfica. This dissertation wass developed under the Professional Master in Managent and Evaluation of Public Education (PPGP) of the Center for Public Policy and Evaluation of Education of the Federal University of Juiz de Fora (CAEd/UFJF). The management case studied discussed the internal distribution, of the Federal University of Juiz de for a (UFJF), of the funds received through budgetary decentralization of the Education Ministry. The aims defined for this research were to describe the budget distribution model currently applied in the UFJF, analyze it in order to certify how the criteria used have effectively impacted the distribution, evaluate and compare the internal budget decentralization model adopted in five other Federal Institutions of Higher Education. After these reflections, it will be proposed a plan of action to make the budget distribution model uptodated and improved in UFJF, according to the physical and personnel expansion that occurred as a result of taking part of the Program of Restructuring and Expansion of the Federal Universities (REUNI). The Educacional Action Plan suggested the adoption of a model for the internal distribution of resources from MEC through decentralization in a more equitable way. The methodology of this research is characterized as qualitative, since we used the comparative analysis of some distribution models, from the use of documentary and literature research.

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Lo, Cheng Sik-sze, and 羅鄭適時. "Incrementalism and public budgeting in Hong Kong: myth or model?" Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 1989. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B31976037.

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Khaile, Samuel Thabo. "Legal and institutional measures: key requirements for effective municipal budget oversight." Thesis, University of the Western Cape, 2011. http://etd.uwc.ac.za/index.php?module=etd&action=viewtitle&id=gen8Srv25Nme4_4719_1337952238.

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In South Africa, municipal councils are accorded a legal status and authority of a deliberative legislative body. This is considered critical for the municipal council to establish appropriate structures, processes and systems for effective oversight, particularly, oversight of budget execution. However, indications are that, the current legal and institutional measures need to be strengthened to enable municipal council to exercise oversight of the budget execution. Literature review conducted in this study highlighted executive dominance, lack of technical capacity, lack of access to relevant information and partisan attitude as key factors constraining elected representatives in general from exercising oversight of budget execution. In addition, the review identified institutional and behavioural criteria as the normative framework within which to evaluate the effectiveness of the current legal and institutional measures for oversight of budget execution in South African municipalities.

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Schimper, Michael Casparus Eksteen. "A model for budget management in the Free State provincial government." Thesis, Bloemfontein : Central University of Technology, Free State, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/11462/62.

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Thesis (D. Tech.) - Central University of Technology, Free State, 2005 The primary objective of this research has been to undertake a critical investigation of the application of the budget process and the achievement of budget objectives in the Free State Provincial Government. The emphasis has been specifically on the planning and control functions of management. The justification for the research is the continuous demand for unlimited public services and the limited availability of the state‟s financial resources. The undertaking proceeded from the hypothetical viewpoint that a budget is designed to assure that public resources are spent according to the preferences of the taxpayer and the legislature. A budget promotes consistency in the process of resource allocation, and its implementation should be enforced by constant evaluation and monitoring. The research includes the following aspects: - The problems encountered by the Free State Provincial Government in its endeavors to optimize the effectiveness and efficiency of the implementation of the budget. - The fundamental principles of budget management in general, and in particular various types of budget and budget management techniques. - The evaluation of budgets as a basis for reporting on performance and the importance of such performance reports. The research methodology followed relies both on a survey of relevant literature and on empirical data. The former consists of a discussion regarding the extent to which the present budget system promotes effective and efficient budget control management and the achievement of budget objectives. As part of the empirical research an “ex post facto” analysis was undertaken of external audit reports and appropriation accounts over a period of fourteen years. In addition the fishbone or root-cause analysis approach was followed to identify core symptoms. The theoretical and empirical research yielded the following results: - The partial disturbance of the input/output relationship means that performance cannot be measured against profit as in the private sector. To compensate for this deficiency management should focus on financial statements and on audit and performance reports to measure performance. - Management needs to have an unimpeded access to budget information on the financial management system right from the beginning of each new financial year. - Estimates of expenditure (projections) should be captured on a monthly basis in the financial management system. With the implementation of the Medium Term Expenditure Framework, budget projections must be regarded as compulsory. - Press reports and reports of the Auditor-General indicated that shortcomings relating to audit committees still exist both on national and provincial levels. This deficiency has a negative effect on the effectiveness of the internal audit function. - An annual percentage deviation in various departments between voted amounts and expenditure was substantial. In some instances the deviation - Losses should be monitored constantly, and management should be aware of the impact of losses and claims on financial resources. Their prevention should be part of each department‟s financial strategy. - Budget manipulation reduces the budget‟s effectiveness and efficiency as a means of performance measurement. The first possible solution to solve the problems associated with the budget is privatization of the service or function. The second possibility is the implementation of a quality control program. Its objective would be to reverse poor performance. To be successful, the quality control program should rely on clear accountabilities, effective partnerships and devoted leadership. A third recommendation might be the implementation of a quality assurance and quality control division for each department. The first component would gather all the necessary documentation to assure quality while the second would monitor effective application. The first requirement in measuring performance will be the motivation of all staff to be committed to the improvement of service delivery. The second challenge will be to train them accordingly. The third challenge will be the development of a performance report procedure for each department. A further recommendation is the analysis and reduction of underspending. Finally, accounting officers must implement effective and transparent processes of financial and risk management. Broadly viewed, the integration of budget and strategic planning initiatives of the National Treasury are a slow process that cannot be implemented overnight. National departments and provinces are, however, requested by National Treasury to improve on the outputs and the development of robust output performance measures and service delivery indicators. This viewpoint supports the proposed budget-management model aimed at effective objective achievement or sustainable development of the Free State. In future the budget management process could be based on this model to improve service delivery.

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Neuhaus, Eric. "Evaluation of a Water Budget Model for Use in Wetland Design." Thesis, Virginia Tech, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/23741.

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Wetland ecological function greatly depends on the wetland hydrology. As a result, correctly estimating the wetland water budget, is essential to the success of created wetlands. A wetland water budget model, Wetbud, was developed by collaborators from Virginia Tech, Old Dominion University, and the Technical University of Crete for estimating wetland water budgets to assist wetland design in the Virginia Piedmont. The Wetbud model has basic and advanced modules. The basic module uses level pool routing to compute average monthly water levels. Based on the groundwater model MODFLOW, the advanced module estimates groundwater interactions and vegetative resistance to surface flows on a daily timestep. The overall goal of this research was to assess Wetbud as an uncalibrated design model for mitigation wetland water budget estimation in the Virginia Piedmont. Specific objectives were to compare predictions using the basic and advanced modules and to compare the Thornthwaite and the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith potential evapotranspiration estimation methods for the design of created wetlands. The Wetbud model was tested using data from two existing mitigation wetlands. Both modules produced reasonable results; however, the basic module did not accurately predict drawdown occurring during dry periods. Results showed that the Wetbud advanced module produced more accurate and detailed results when compared to the basic module: Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency ratings for the advanced module ranged from to 0.44 to 0.63. Potential evapotranspiration estimates by the FAO-56 Penman Monteith method were more accurate than those from the Thornthwaite method in nearly every model scenario Master of Science

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Hanna, Eve. "Les thérapies innovantes : une révolution médicale et un tsunami financier." Thesis, Aix-Marseille, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017AIXM0622/document.

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Les objectifs de la thèse étaient d’identifier le nombre de MTI en développement, d’évaluer prospectivement l’impact financier que produiront les traitements innovants et de rechercher de nouvelles modalités de paiement des MTI pour aider les décideurs publiques à anticiper l’impact des MTI à court et moyen terme sur le budget de l’assurance maladie. Le nombre de MTI en développement est évalué par le dénombrement des essais cliniques des MTI dans 3 bases de données internationales. Cette étude a montré le grand nombre de MTI en développement et susceptible d’arriver sur le marché. L’impact budgétaire des MTI est évalué. Des modèles de Markov ont été développés pour 3 maladies : Alzheimer, Parkinson et l’insuffisance cardiaque. Ensuite, l’impact des MTI dans 35 maladies sera estimé à l’aide des hypothèses. Cette section montre que les prix élevés des MTI seront inabordables, les payeurs ne pourront pas payer le prix de tous les MTI à l’avance. Une identification des modèles de paiement des thérapies innovantes est effectuée via une revue de la littérature. Ces modèles ont été évalués et discutés durant une réunion d’experts puis un modèle de paiement optimal pour les MTI est suggéré. Des recommandations stratégiques sont présentées pour aider les industriels et les décideurs publiques à assurer l’accès des patients aux thérapies innovantes tout en maintenant la pérennité de l’assurance maladie et évitant la faillite The objectives of this thesis were to identify the magnitude of the ATMPs pipeline, to assess the budget impact of ATMPs and to suggest new funding models for ATMPs in order to help decision-makers to anticipate the hypothetical short and medium term budget impact of such products. The magnitude of ATMPs pipeline was evaluated by identifying the number and characteristics of ATMPs clinical trials in 3 worldwide clinical trials databases. A large number of ATMPs are in development (939 clinical trials) and may successfully reach the market. Overall, the results showed that the number of ATMPs clinical trials has been consistently growing over the past 15 years. The budget impact of ATMPs was assessed. Markov models were developed to assess the cost-effectiveness and budget impact for ATMPs using 5 efficacy scenarios in Parkinson disease, Alzheimer’s disease and heart failure. Then, an estimation of the budget impact of 35 ATMPs was conducted suggesting that an ATMP can cure all patients. We have shown in this chapter that a cost-effective ATMP may be unaffordable; payers will not be able to pay upfront the costs of all ATMPs. The traditional funding models may not be adaptable for ATMPs. The proposed funding models for innovative high-cost therapies were identified through a literature review, discussed during a consensus meeting and an optimal funding model for ATMPs was recommended.Finally, health policy recommendations for the stakeholders – patients, physicians, payers and manufacturers – are presented. These recommendations aim to help to ensure patient access to innovation while maintaining the sustainability of healthcare system

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Garza, Casado Miguel Maria. "The Political Economy of Pre-Electoral Coalitions." The Ohio State University, 2020. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1583759580393628.

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Debessay, Robel Netsereab. "The impact of privatisation on firm efficiency, labor market and budget of government: case of Eritrea." Thesis, University of the Western Cape, 2004. http://etd.uwc.ac.za/index.php?module=etd&amp.

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Privatization has become a central feature of the economic policies of nations in the developed and developing world. Eritrea has also embarked on a privatisation program for the state-owned enterprises. It privatised 39 manufacturing enterprises from 1997-2001 in the hope that the enterprises might be restructured into more efficient, profitable, competent and value creating private enterprises. This thesis assessed the impact of privatisation on the operating efficiency, profitability, employment, wages and tax payment of the Eritrean newly privatised manufacturing enterprises.

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Torres-Bello, Omar. "A simple zonal average energy budget model of the earth-atmosphere system." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 1989. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/28033.

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Bromund, Carl Douglas. "Implementing Strategy in a Budget: A Model of the Coast Guard Reserve." Thesis, Monterey, California : Naval Postgraduate School, 1990. http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA236676.

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Thesis (M.S. in Management)--Naval Postgraduate School, June 1990. Thesis Advisor(s): Evered, Roger D. Second Reader: Pike, Roger T. "June 1990." Description based on title screen as viewed on October 20, 2009. DTIC Descriptor(s): Strategy, budgets, strategic materials, management. DTIC Indicator(s): Theses, Coast Guard Reserve, management, strategy, military budgets. Author(s) subject terms: Strategy, budget, U.S. Coast Guard Reserve. Includes bibliographical references (p. 82-84). Also available in print.

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Aldebert, Clément. "Uncertainty in predictive ecology : consequence of choices in model construction." Thesis, Aix-Marseille, 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016AIXM4075/document.

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Les systèmes écologiques sont des systèmes complexes qui ne peuvent pas être d´écrits par un unique modèle mathématique. De nombreux modèles peuvent être construits pour un même système, selon les internets du modélisateur et ses choix dans la construction du modèle. Quel est l’impact de ces choix dans la construction du modèle sur les prédictions de la dynamique des systèmes écologiques et les informations qu’elles fournissent sur la résilience de ces systèmes est la question générale qui guide le travail présente dans cette thèse. Cette thèses focalise sur un choix entre formulations de modèle basées sur des mécanismes biologiques et qui décrivent les données empiriques avec la même efficacité. Ces modèles sont proches l’un de l’autre, donc on s’attendrait `a ce que leurs prédictions soient similaires. Cependant, nous montrons avec un exemple générique de modèle prédateur-proie que des formulations similaires du processus de prédation peuvent prédire des dynamiques qualitativement différentes en terme de: (i) nombre et type d'états stables, et (ii) réponse et résilience du système face à une perturbation extérieure. Ces différences dans les prédictions du modèle sont expliquées par une analyse mathématique détaillée du modèle prédateur-proie. Ensuite, ce modèle est étendu à des réseaux trophiques compos´es de dizaines d’espèces. La complexité de ces réseaux (nombre d'espèces et d’interactions) explique leur persistance, alors que leur dynamique temporelle est fortement affectée par la fonction utilisée pour modéliser la prédation. Des méthodes sont ´également proposées pour quantifier la sensibilités d’un modèle. Finalement, nous montrons que si un minimum de détails biologiques sont pris en compte, des modèles prédateurs-proies sont moins sensibles `a la formulation de la prédation. Ceci nous donne des pistes pour gérer les incertitudes dans la construction d’un modèle, qui sont intrinsèques à la complexité des systèmes naturels Ecological systems are complex systems which cannot be described by a single mathematical model. Multiple modelsof a same system can be built, depending on modeller’s interests and on its choices during model construction. Howfar these choices in model construction can affect the predicted dynamics of ecological systems and the informationthey provide on their resilience? is the general question that leads the research presented in this thesis. This thesisfocuses on a choice between model formulations that are based on biological mechanisms and describe empiricaldata with the same accuracy. These models are close to each other, so they are expected to predict similar systemdynamics. However, we show through a generic example of predator-prey model that similar formulations of thepredation process can predict qualitatively different system dynamics in term of: (i) number and type of stablestates, and (ii) system response to external disturbance and its potential for recovery. These differences in modelpredictions are explained by a detailed mathematical analysis of the predator-prey model. Next, this model isextended to complex food webs made of tens of species. The complexity of these networks (number of species andinteractions) drives their persistence, whereas their temporal dynamics is strongly affected by the function used tomodel predation. Methods to quantify model sensitivity are also proposed. Finally, we show that if a minimumlevel of biological details is included, predator-prey models are less sensitive to predation formulation. This providea clue to deal with uncertainties in model construction, which are intrinsic to the complexity of natural systems

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Spank, Uwe. "Site Water Budget: Influences of Measurement Uncertainties on Measurement Results and Model Results." Doctoral thesis, Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2010. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-62557.

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The exact quantification of site water budget is a necessary precondition for successful and sustainable management of forests, agriculture and water resources. In this study the water balance was investigated at the spatial scale of canopies and at different temporal scales with focus on the monthly time scale. The estimation of the individual water balance components was primarily based on micrometeorological measurement methods. Evapotranspiration was assessed by the eddy-covariance (EC) method, while sap flow measurements were used to estimate transpiration. Interception was assessed by a combination of canopy drip, stem flow and precipitation (gross rainfall) measurements and soil moisture measurements were used to estimate the soil water storage. The combination of different measurement methods and the derivation of water balance components that are not directly measurable e.g. seepage and soil evaporation is a very complex task due to different scales of measurement, measurement uncertainties and the superposition of these effects. The quantification of uncertainties is a core point of the present study. The uncertainties were quantified for water balance component as well as for meteorological variables (e.g. wind speed, temperature, global radiation, net radiation and precipitation) that served as input data in water balance models. Furthermore, the influences of uncertainties were investigated in relation to numerical water balance simulations. Here, both the effects of uncertainties in input data and in reference data were analysed and evaluated. The study addresses three main topics. The first topic was the providing of reference data of evapotranspiration by EC measurements. Here, the processing of EC raw-data was of main concern with focus on the correction of the spectral attenuation. Four different methods of spectral correction were tested and compared. The estimated correction coefficients were significantly different between all methods. However, the effects were small to absolute values on half-hourly time scale. In contrast to half-hour data sets, the method had significant influence to estimated monthly totals of evapotranspiration. The second main topic dealt with the comparison of water balances between a spruce (Picea abies) and a beech (Fagus sylvatica) site. Both sites are located in the Tharandter Wald (Germany). Abiotic conditions are very similar at both sites. Thus, the comparison of both sites offered the opportunity to reveal differences in the water balance due to different dominant tree species. The aim was to estimate and to compare all individual components of the water balance by a combination of the above mentioned measurement methods. A major challenge was to overcome problems due different scales of measurements. Significant differences of the water balances between both sites occurred under untypical weather conditions. However, under typical condition the sites showed a similar behaviour. Here, the importance of involved uncertainties deserved special attention. Results showed that differences in the water balance between sites were blurred by uncertainties. The third main topic dealt with the effects of uncertainties on simulations of water balances with numerical models. These analyses were based on data of three sites (Spruce, Grass and Agricultural site). A kind of Monte-Carlo-Simulation (uncertainty model) was used to simulate effects of measurement uncertainties. Furthermore, the effects of model complexity and the effect of uncertainties in reference data on the evaluation of simulation results were investigated. Results showed that complex water balance models like BROOK90 have the ability to describe the general behaviour and tendencies of a water balance. However, satisfying quantitative results were only reached under typical weather conditions. Under untypical weather e.g. droughts or extreme precipitation, the results significantly differed from actual (measured) values. In contrast to complex models, it was demonstrated that simple Black Box Models (e.g. HPTFs) are not suited for water balance simulations for the three sites tested here Die genaue Quantifizierung des Standortswasserhaushalts ist eine notwendige Voraussetzung für eine erfolgreiche und nachhaltige Bewirtschaftung von Wäldern, Äckern und Wasserressourcen. In dieser Studie wurde auf der Raumskala des Bestandes und auf verschieden Zeitskalen, jedoch vorrangig auf Monatsebene, die Wasserbilanz untersucht. Die Bestimmung der einzelnen Wasserbilanzkomponenten erfolgte hauptsächlich mit mikrometeorologischen Messmethoden. Die Eddy- Kovarianz- Methode (EC- Methode) wurde benutzt zur Messung der Evapotranspiration, während Xylem- Flussmessungen angewendet wurden, um die Transpiration zu bestimmen. Die Interzeption wurde aus Messungen des Bestandesniederschlags, des Stammablaufs und des Freilandniederschlags abgeleitet. Messungen der Bodenfeuchte dienten zur Abschätzung des Bodenwasservorrats. Die Kombination verschiedener Messmethoden und die Ableitung von nicht direkt messbaren Wasserhaushaltkomponenten (z.B. Versickerung und Bodenverdunstung) ist eine äußerst komplexe Aufgabe durch verschiedenen Messskalen, Messfehler und die Überlagerung dieser Effekte. Die Quantifizierung von Unsicherheiten ist ein Kernpunkt in dieser Studie. Dabei werden sowohl Unsicherheiten in Wasserhaushaltskomponenten als auch in meteorologischen Größen, welche als Eingangsdaten in Wasserbilanzmodellen dienen (z.B. Windgeschwindigkeit, Temperatur, Globalstrahlung, Nettostrahlung und Niederschlag) quantifiziert. Weiterführend wird der Einfluss von Unsicherheiten im Zusammenhang mit numerischen Wasserbilanzsimulationen untersucht. Dabei wird sowohl die Wirkung von Unsicherheiten in Eingangsdaten als auch in Referenzdaten analysiert und bewertet. Die Studie beinhaltet drei Hauptthemen. Das erste Thema widmet sich der Bereitstellung von Referenzdaten der Evapotranspiration mittels EC- Messungen. Dabei waren die Aufbereitung von EC- Rohdaten und insbesondere die Dämpfungskorrektur (Spektralkorrektur) der Schwerpunkt. Vier verschiedene Methoden zur Dämpfungskorrektur wurden getestet und verglichen. Die bestimmten Korrekturkoeffizienten unterschieden sich deutlich zwischen den einzelnen Methoden. Jedoch war der Einfluss auf die Absolutwerte halbstündlicher Datensätze gering. Im Gegensatz dazu hatte die Methode deutlichen Einfluss auf die ermittelten Monatssummen der Evapotranspiration. Das zweite Hauptthema beinhaltet einen Vergleich der Wasserbilanz eines Fichten- (Picea abies) mit der eines Buchenbestands (Fagus sylvatica). Beide Bestände befinden sich im Tharandter Wald (Deutschland). Die abiotischen Faktoren sind an beiden Standorten sehr ähnlich. Somit bietet der Vergleich die Möglichkeit Unterschiede in der Wasserbilanz, die durch unterschiedliche Hauptbaumarten verursacht wurden, zu analysieren. Das Ziel was es, die einzelnen Wasserbilanzkomponenten durch eine Kombination der eingangs genanten Messmethoden zu bestimmen und zu vergleichen. Ein Hauptproblem dabei war die Umgehung der unterschiedlichen Messskalen. Deutliche Unterschiede zwischen den beiden Standorten traten nur unter untypischen Wetterbedingungen auf. Unter typischen Bedingungen zeigten die Bestände jedoch ein ähnliches Verhalten. An dieser Stelle erlangten Messunsicherheiten besondere Bedeutung. So demonstrierten die Ergebnisse, dass Unterschiede in der Wasserbilanz beider Standorte durch Messunsicherheiten verwischt wurden. Das dritte Hauptthema behandelt die Wirkung von Unsicherheiten auf Wasserbilanzsimulationen mittels numerischer Modelle. Die Analysen basierten auf Daten von drei Messstationen (Fichten-, Grasland- und Agrarstandort). Es wurde eine Art Monte-Carlo-Simulation eingesetzt, um die Wirkung von Messunsicherheiten zu simulieren. Ferner wurden auch der Einfluss der Modellkomplexität und die Effekte von Unsicherheiten in Referenzdaten auf die Bewertung von Modellergebnissen untersucht. Die Ergebnisse zeigten, dass komplexe Wasserhaushaltsmodelle wie BROOK90 in der Lage sind, das Verhalten und Tendenzen der Wasserbilanz abzubilden. Jedoch wurden zufriedenstellende quantitative Ergebnisse nur unter üblichen Wetterbedingungen erzielt. Unter untypischen Wetterbedingungen (Dürreperioden, Extremniederschläge) wichen die Ergebnisse deutlich vom tatsächlichen (gemessenen) Wert ab. Im Gegensatz zu komplexen Modellen zeigte sich, dass Black Box Modelle (HPTFs) nicht für Wasserhaushaltssimulation an den drei genannten Messstandorten geeignet sind

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Domingues, Catia Motta, and Catia Domingues@csiro au. "Kinematics and Heat Budget of the Leeuwin Current." Flinders University. SOCPES, 2006. http://catalogue.flinders.edu.au./local/adt/public/adt-SFU20060612.211358.

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This study investigates the upper ocean circulation along the west Australian coast, based on recent observations (WOCE ICM6, 1994/96) and numerical output from the 1/6 degree Parallel Ocean Program model (POP11B 1993/97). Particularly, we identify the source regions of the Leeuwin Current, quantify its mean and seasonal variability in terms of volume, heat and salt transports, and examine its heat balance (cooling mechanism). This also leads to further understanding of the regional circulation associated with the Leeuwin Undercurrent, the Eastern Gyral Current and the southeast Indian Subtropical Gyre. The tropical and subtropical sources of the Leeuwin Current are understood from an online numerical particle tracking. Some of the new findings are the Tropical Indian Ocean source of the Leeuwin Current (in addition to the Indonesian Throughflow/Pacific); the Eastern Gyral Current as a recirculation of the South Equatorial Current; the subtropical source of the Leeuwin Current fed by relatively narrow subsurface-intensified eastward jets in the Subtropical Gyre, which are also a major source for the Subtropical Water (salinity maximum) as observed in the Leeuwin Undercurrent along the ICM6 section at 22 degrees S. The ICM6 current meter array reveals a rich vertical current structure near North West Cape (22 degrees S). The coastal part of the Leeuwin Current has dominant synoptic variability and occasionally contains large spikes in its transport time series arising from the passage of tropical cyclones. On the mean, it is weaker and shallower compared to further downstream, and it only transports Tropical Water, of a variable content. The Leeuwin Undercurrent carries Subtropical Water, South Indian Central Water and Antarctic Intermediate Water equatorward between 150/250 to 500/750 m. There is a poleward flow just below the undercurrent which advects a mixed Intermediate Water, partially associated with outflows from the Red Sea and Persian Gulf. Narrow bottom-intensified currents are also observed. The 5-year mean model Leeuwin Current is a year-round poleward flow between 22 degrees S and 34 degrees S. It progressively deepens, from 150 to 300 m depth. Latitudinal variations in its volume transport are a response to lateral inflows/outflows. It has double the transport at 34 degrees S (-2.2 Sv) compared to at 22 degrees S (-1.2 Sv). These model estimates, however, may underestimate the transport of the Leeuwin Current by 50%. Along its path, the current becomes cooler (6 degrees C), saltier (0.6 psu) and denser (2 kg m -3). At seasonal scales, a stronger poleward flow in May-June advects the warmest and freshest waters along the west Australian coast. This advection is apparently spun up by the arrival of a poleward Kelvin wave in April, and reinforced by a minimum in the equatorward wind stress during July. In the model heat balance, the Leeuwin Current is significantly cooled by the eddy heat flux divergence (4 degrees C out of 6 degrees C), associated with mechanisms operating at submonthly time scales. However, exactly which mechanisms it is not yet clear. Air-sea fluxes only account for ~30% of the cooling and seasonal rectification is negligible. The eddy heat divergence, originating over a narrow region along the outer edge of the Leeuwin Current, is responsible for a considerable warming of a vast area of the adjacent ocean interior, which is then associated with strong heat losses to the atmosphere. The model westward eddy heat flux estimates are considerably larger than those associated with long lived warm core eddies detaching from the Leeuwin Current and moving offshore. This suggests that these mesoscale features are not the main mechanism responsible for the cooling of the Leeuwin Current. We suspect instead that short lived warm core eddies might play an important role.

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Abad, Nicolas. "Fiscal Policies, Balanced-Budget Rules and Economic Destabilization." Thesis, Aix-Marseille, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015AIXM2010.

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Cette thèse étudie l'impact déstabilisateur des politiques fiscales en présence d'une règle d'équilibre budgétaire dans les modèles de macroéconomie dynamique. Elle comporte trois essais dont l'objectif est d'éclairer de nouveaux mécanismes mettant en avant cet impact déstabilisateur. Dans le premier chapitre, nous étudions le lien entre préférences des ménages et instabilité agrégée. Le second et le troisième chapitre considèrent une approche multisectorielle et étendent la question de l'émergence de l'instabilité soit lorsque la politique fiscale est soit spécifique aux secteurs ou lorsque l'économie s'ouvre à l'échange international This dissertation study the destabilizing impact of fiscal policies in presence of a balanced-budget rule in the model of dynamic macroeconomics. It consist of three essays aiming to highlight new mechanisms providing this destabilizing impact. In the first chapter, we study the link between households' preferences et aggregate instability. The second and third chapter consider a multisectorial approach and extend the issue of the emergence of aggregate instability either when the tax policy is sector-specific or when the economy opens to international trade

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