Auswahl der wissenschaftlichen Literatur zum Thema „Impact de marché temporaire“

RésuméL’article étudie l’effet de l’émigration des travailleurs sur la distribution de la richesse d’une petite économie où les travailleurs sont confrontés à des difficultés d’accès au marché du crédit. Les migrants s’enrichissent en travaillant à l’étranger puis lèguent leur richesse à leurs descendants en revenant dans leur pays d’origine. Une plus grande proportion de travailleurs de la génération suivante deviennent entrepreneurs. Si l’émigration n’est pas trop restreinte, le salaire augmente et la structure du marché du travail est modifiée. L’accumulation de richesse est tirée vers le haut. Ainsi l’émigration temporaire peut conduire un pays en voie de développement hors d’un «piège de la pauvreté».

Au cours des dix dernières années, au Québec, l’industrie des agences de travail temporaire a connu une croissance importante et le nombre de salariés qui transitent par une agence a augmenté progressivement. Une grande majorité de ces salariés (42 %) sont des jeunes de moins de 30 ans. Quelles catégories de jeunes font appel à des agences de travail temporaire et quel est le rôle de ces agences dans leur parcours d’insertion sur le marché du travail ? C’est à cette question que le présent article se propose de répondre à partir de l’analyse d’un matériau empirique composé de 40 entrevues réalisées auprès de jeunes de la grande région de Québec qui ont fait appel à une agence de travail temporaire au cours des deux années qui ont précédé l’entrevue.

Le secteur spatial européen traverse une période difficile, marquée par la perte temporaire de ses capacités autonomes d’accès à l’espace, par la forte concurrence américaine et par la transformation du marché des satellites. L’Union européenne est aussi en retard dans le domaine numérique et la valorisation des données spatiales lui échappe largement. Dans ce contexte tendu, où les États-Unis et la Chine investissent massivement, un réveil européen est nécessaire – au risque d’un abandon de souveraineté.

L’industrie des agences de location de personnel a connu une expansion considérable au Canada et au Québec depuis une dizaine d’années. Devenue un mécanisme important dans le fonctionnement du marché du travail, elle apporte non seulement une flexibilité numérique et fonctionnelle accrue aux entreprises, mais elle est aussi une voie privilégiée d’accès au marché du travail pour de nombreux travailleurs, entre autres chez les jeunes travailleurs. La location de personnel s’inscrit dans le cadre d’une relation de travail tripartite entre le salarié, l’agence et l’entreprise cliente. Ce type de relation ne va pas sans poser des difficultés particulières qui trouvent difficilement leur solution dans la mesure où l’activité de location de personnel en tant que telle n’est nullement réglementée au Québec. La question qui se pose est celle de savoir si, compte tenu de la nature particulière de la relation tripartite, les droits reconnus aux salariés peuvent être exercés, en pratique, de façon à atteindre leur juste fin. De nombreux travaux, surtout à caractère juridique ont mis en lumière la difficulté d’identifier l’employeur véritable de même que l’incapacité des lois du travail, mieux adaptées aux relations de travail binaires, de prendre en compte adéquatement la situation particulière qui résulte de ce type de relations tripartite. D’autres travaux illustrent la disparité de traitement dont sont tributaires les salariés d’agence, les limites que pose la location de personnel à la liberté d’emploi et à la mobilité ou encore le taux élevé de lésions professionnelles observées chez les salariés d’agence, notamment chez les jeunes travailleurs. Les conséquences juridiques de l’absence réglementation de ce type d’activité sont bien connues et bien documentées. Le progrès de la connaissance repose désormais sur des recherches empiriques de façon à mieux connaître les conditions de travail réelles des salariés d’agence de même que les pratiques des agences de location.

Au Québec, on soumet les nouveaux immigrants à une évaluation serrée du niveau de leurs compétences linguistiques (en français ou en anglais), dans le but de sélectionner des candidats susceptibles de réussir leur établissement socio-économique. Pour des raisons sociales et politiques, on accorde une attention particulière à la connaissance du français à l’arrivée, dans le but de favoriser une meilleure participation au marché du travail. Dans cet article, les auteurs examinent l’effet à moyen et à long terme de la connaissance du français et (ou) de l’anglais sur la performance des nouveaux immigrants sur le marché de l’emploi. Pour les analyses, ils ont recours à une enquête longitudinale sur l’établissement des nouveaux immigrants (ENI), décrivant leurs parcours biographiques. L’ENI présente, sur une période de dix ans, les principaux gestes d’établissement (logement, cours, emploi, etc.) de 429 nouveaux arrivants ayant comme destination la grande région de Montréal. On constate essentiellement que la connaissance pré-migratoire du français et (ou) de l’anglais est un facteur temporaire donnant accès aux emplois qualifiés ou mieux rémunérés, mais qu’elle n’a aucune incidence sur la participation au marché du travail.

L’article s’intéresse au phénomène très répandu ces dernières années de « l’urbanisme tactique », une tendance qui recoupe plusieurs réalités et nouveaux types d’aménagement et de planification territoriale. Ces nouvelles modalités de fabrique de la ville peuvent représenter un amalgame de pratiques très diversifiées de réappropriation de l’espace urbain, privé ou public, se traduisant par des transformations physico-spatiales ou événementielles, généralement spontanées, citoyennes et politiquement engagées (urbanisme temporaire, éphémère, populaire, insurgé, transitoire, etc.). Elles prennent d’assaut les interstices de l’espace urbain, sont parfois illégales (l’idée de guérilla urbaine, de space hacking, etc.), puis sont récupérées par les instances (administrations locales, promoteurs, investisseurs) comme prévalorisation au marché foncier et aux espaces environnants. Montréal n’a pas échappé à ce phénomène, et la multiplication des projets et des initiatives est exponentielle depuis quelques années.

Régi par une réglementation stricte restée quasiment inchangée de 1972 à 2004, l'intérim n'a cessé de croître. Pour comprendre les raisons de cette croissance a priori paradoxale, cette thèse s'appuie sur une analyse stratégique et systémique multiniveau. Elle observe le comportement d'acteurs qui participent du système du travail intérimaire et qui ont des relations entre eux : des intérimaires, des entreprises utilisatrices (EU), des agences de travail temporaire (ATT) et des acteurs participant de leur environnement, sur 8 marchés du travail liés à la logistique, au transport, à la téléaction et à l'architecture. Elle analyse leur contexte d'action, la situation de l'emploi et leur situation économique et réglementaire, à l'aide de divers cadres d'interprétation, sociologies du travail, de l'emploi, des marchés et du droit, analyse économique et financière. L'étude des contraintes réglementaires, du caractère coûteux de l'intérim pour les intérimaires, les EU et les ATT et du caractère imprévisible de leur comportement, qui semblaient entraver le développement de l'intérim, a permis de comprendre comment les échanges se sont multipliés et pérennisés. Ce sont les conditions mêmes de ce jeu collectif. Acteurs les plus contraints juridiquement, les ATT ont appris à maîtriser leurs contraintes et celles de leurs "partenaires". Elles s'en sont aussi saisies pour générer des échanges et rendre dépendants des intérimaires et des EU, pourtant a priori libres. Elles réussissent également à mutualiser les coûts des transactions, reportant une partie des charges sur les 3 acteurs principaux de l'intérim et une autre sur des tiers, via notamment le système d'assurance chômage
There was a fairly steady increase in temporary agency work (TAW) in France between 1972 and 2004, whereas that work was strictly regulated by rules that remained unchanged. This doctoral thesis aims at accounting for this a priori paradoxical increase. The research is based upon multilevel, strategic and systemic studies. The behaviours of individuals who are involved in the TAW system and in a similar social network were observed : temporary workers, user firms, temporary work agencies, and agents of public services who belong to 8 segments of the labour market connected to 4 sectors - logistics, transportation, architecture and call centres. The contexts of their action, employment, economic and judicial situations were examined within several conceptual frameworks : sociologies of work, employment, market and law, economic and financial analyses. Thus, the legal constraints, the high cost of TAW for workers, users and agencies and the unpredictability of their behaviours, which at first sight seemed to interfère with the development of TAW, were thoroughly analysed ; they can accotait for the way the transactions between these individuals, developed and lasted. These elements turn out to be the very conditions for this collective gaine. More legally bound and controlled than the others, the agencies know how to control their constraints and those of theirs "partners". They also manage to turn them into resources, to make temporary workers and users dependent, even though the latter seem to be a priori free. They finally manage to share out the costs of those transactions. They transfer part of the costs to the 3 main parties of the TAW system and the rest to other parties

La thèse s'interroge sur les conséquences de la relation d'emploi intérimaire, relation triangulaire entre l'entreprise de travail temporaire, le salarié intérimaire en mission et l'entreprise utilisatrice, sur les identités professionnelles et sociales de ceux qui y sont confrontes quotidiennement. A partir d'investigations empiriques auprès de travailleurs intérimaires et auprès d'agences de travail temporaire, la thèse montre l'ambivalence de la signification de la relation d'emploi intérimaire, autant pour les individus concernés que pour la société. Ainsi, la thèse propose une typologie de rapports à l'intérim (<< intérim d'insertion >>, << intérim de transition >>, << intérim de profession >>), chacun de ces types étant mis en relation avec des rapports au travail et à l'emploi spécifiques et avec la place de l'identité professionnelle dans la définition des identités sociales. Le type de liens existant entre les intérimaires et leur employeur de jure, l'agence de travail temporaire apparaît comme structurant du rapport à l'intérim, l'étude de ces liens permettant d'appréhender sous un angle original la fonction d'intermédiation des entreprises de travail temporaire sur le marché du travail : la thèse s'achève ainsi sur une interrogation plus générale sur la mobilité et son organisation sur le marché du travail, à partir du rôle joué par les entreprises de travail temporaire comme instances de (de)mobilisation de la main-d'œuvre, comme acteurs participant de fait à la gestion de la transition professionnelle, aux côtés des dispositifs publics qui structurent le marché << secondaire >> du travail

L’insertion sur le marché du travail en France des individus sous un contrat de travail temporaire (CTT) est un processus complexe que cette thèse se propose d’examiner. La première partie étudie les déterminants du recours aux CTT. La littérature montre que les CTT sont des solutions aux problèmes liés à l'antisélection, à l'aléa moral, à l'appariement et enfin à l’incertitude affectant l’environnement externe de l’entreprise. Les résultats des estimations à partir de l'enquête Emploi historique confirment l'effet positif des coûts de contractualisation évoqués par la littérature. La deuxième partie vise à tester si un CTT pouvait être un tremplin vers un CDI. A partir d’un échantillon de l'enquête Emploi, les résultats montrent que, pour les hommes et les femmes, la probabilité de transition vers un CDI décroît après le 12ème mois. Après un CTT dans le secteur public, comparé au privé, les travailleurs temporaires se retrouvent plutôt en chômage ou sous un autre CTT. La troisième partie de la thèse analyse l’impact des transitions individuelles d’un CDD vers un CDI sur le salaire. Nous présentons un modèle permettant d'interpréter la transition d'un emploi temporaire à un emploi permanent à partir d'un mécanisme de tournoi. Les propriétés d'équilibre du modèle montrent que l'écart de salaire entre CDI et CDD est positivement corrélé à l'incertitude qui accompagne la sélection sous le statut de CDD. A partir de l'enquête Emploi et en utilisant la taille de l’entreprise comme proxy de l’incertitude, nos résultats confirment qu’une augmentation de l'incertitude lors de la sélection conduit à un renforcement de l'écart de salaire entre promus et non-promus
The purpose of this thesis is to examine the temporary contracts and its impacts on labour mobility in France. In a first part, we aim at investigating the determinant to use temporary contract. The theoretical analyses intend to explain that temporary contracts are a solution to the moral hazard, adverse selection, job matching and uncertainty affecting the external environment of the firm. The econometric evaluation from the French Labour Survey of these determinants confirms the positive effect of contracting costs evoked by the literature on the contract duration. The second part examined whether temporary contracts deserve to be considered as stepping stones to permanent ones. Using French Labour Survey, our results show that, for men and women, the transition to permanent contract decreases after 12th months. After a temporary contract in the public sector, compared to private, the workers are more likely to fall again into unemployment or another temporary contract. The third part studies the impact of the individual transition from a temporary job (CDD) to permanent job (CDI) on the wage. We present the transition from a temporary job to a permanent one as a simple tournament mechanism. The equilibrium properties of the model show that wages differences between temporary jobs and permanent ones are positively correlated with uncertainty during tournament. Using French Labour Survey, using a firm size as a proxy for uncertainty, our results do not reject the equilibrium property of the model according to which more uncertainty during tournament reduces players’ incentives and would be compensated by an increased wage gap between promoted and not promoted

L'objectif de cette thèse est d'étudier le dualisme contractuel existant sur le marché du travail français.Je m'intéresse aux flux ayant lieu sur le marché du travail français en mettant en lumière l'importance des contrats à durée déterminée dans ces flux.La législation française sur la protection de l'emploi semble a priori claire et concise et les entreprises soumises à des règles strictes en ce qui concerne la gestion de leur main d’œuvre.Toutefois, il semblerait qu'en pratique, les contraintes pesant sur les firmes en terme d'utilisation de contrats temporaires ne soient pas si claires et que la vision du contrat à durée indéterminée comme forme ``normale" de relation de travail ne soit pas si évidente pour les firmes.En effet, l'on observe que leur utilisation est très fréquente et concerne des emplois dont la durée est de plus en plus courte. Ce travail de thèse a donc pour objectif de mieux comprendre le fonctionnement du marché du travail français et l'impact du dualisme contractuel. A cette fin, cette thèse est composée de trois chapitres. Le premier chapitreévalue l'ampleur des flux d'emplois et de travailleurs sur la période 1998-2012 en mettant en évidence l'impact de la crise de 2008 sur ces flux ainsi que le potentiel renforcement du dualisme contractuel après cette date.Je tiens compte des spécificités sectorielles en isolant les secteurs autorisés à utiliser les contrats dits d'usage afin d'étudier le comportement des firmes en terme d'embauche dans ces secteurs particuliers.Je détaille également l'évolution de ces flux d'emplois et de travailleurs en fonction de la taille des firmes. De plus, j'étudie l'évolution de la durée des contrats à durée déterminée sur cette même période. Enfin, je mets en œuvre un modèle économétrique visant à mettre en lumière les principaux déterminants de l'embauche en contrat à durée déterminée. Dans le second chapitre, je mesure les transitions d'état à état ayant lieu sur le marché du travail français ainsi que leur impact sur la volatilité du taux de chômage. A cette fin, j'utilise un modèle à trois états (en emploi, au chômage, inactif) ainsi qu'un modèle à quatre états (en contrat à durée indéterminée, en contrat à durée déterminée, au chômage, inactif) permettant de prendre en compte le dualisme contractuel caractérisant beaucoup de marchés du travail européens. Ce type de modèle à quatre états constitue une réelle nouveauté dans le sens où celui-ci n'a jamais été mis en œuvre pour la France. Enfin, le troisième article pour objectif d'analyser les conséquences de l'introduction d'une taxe sur les contrats à durée déterminée dans le but d'inciter les firmes à embaucher davantage en contrat à durée indéterminée et à augmenter la durée des contrats. Cette mesure a récemment été mise en place, sous diverses formes, dans plusieurs pays européens. En ce qui concerne la France, cette taxe a été instaurée par l'Accord National Interprofessionnel signé en 2013.Pour ce faire, un modèle d'appariement est estimé sur des données françaises provenant de l'UNEDIC s'appuyant sur le modèle proposé par Cahuc, Charlot et Malherbet (2016)
This thesis study the dualism existing on the French labor market. Especially, I study job and worker flows and the role played by temporary contracts in those flows. The employment protection legislation is stringent in France then firms are subject to important rules when they adjust their workforce. However, it seems that the employment legislation governing the use of temporary contracts is not so binding in practice since this type of contract is widely used and that their duration is more and more shorter. In order to have a better knowledge of the French labor market and of the dualism, this thesis is divided in three chapters. The first one quantifies job and worker flows over the 1998-2012 period and explores the possible impact of the 2008 crisis on those flows taking into account industry characteristics. In addition, I study the evolution of contracts' duration and I propose an econometric analysis that highlight the determinants of temporary hirings.The second chapter quantifies transitions existing on the French labor market and their impact on unemployment volatility. I use a three-state (employed, unemployed, inactive) and a four-state model (permanently employed, temporary employed, unemployed, inactive). This latest model has never been studied for the French case yet.Finally, the last chapter analyzes the consequences of the implementation of a tax on short-term contracts that is supposed to encorage firms to hire with permanent contracts and increase the duration of contracts. This kind of reform has been in several european countries. In France, this tax was implemented by the Interprofessional agreement in july 2013. A search and matching model is estimated on French data from UNEDIC using the model proposed by Caguc, Charlot and Malherbet (2016)

Cette thèse tente de répondre à deux questions: l/dans quelle mesure l'ouverture au commerce international peut affecter le degré de concurrence sur un marché ? et 2/ Quels sont les moyens par lesquels le commerce, à travers son impact sur la concurrence, peut affecter les salaires et l'emploi sectoriels ? Dans un premier chapitre, nous montrons que le commerce est associé à une forte concurrence via une forte élasticité-prix de la demande d'importation estimée. Mais quand nous estimons un indice de concentration globale (i. E. Tient compte des producteurs domestiques et étrangers) dans le chapitre 2, nous trouvons que celle-ci ne baisse pas avec la pénétration étrangère dans les pays de l'OCDE. Le troisième chapitre, offre à la littérature une nouvelle relation linéaire théorique et facilement test able entre les salaires et les parts de marché à l'exportation. Contrairement au cas des pays d'Asie et d'Amérique Latine, nous trouvons que dans les pays de l'OCDE et de la Méditerranée un accroissement des parts de marché à l'exportation sur les marchés étrangers mais aussi sur le marché domestique est associé avec un accroissement des salaires sectoriels. Enfin, dans le dernier chapitre, nous soutenons que la littérature a souvent considéré l'effet de substitution dans l'étude du lien commerce-emploi. Or, nous montrons théoriquement puis par des tests empiriques sur les pays développés et en développement que les importations et les exportations sont porteuses d'un effet demande, toujours positif sur l'emploi. L'idée est que l'ouverture, en accroissant l'efficacité et/ou la concurrence sur le marché d'un bien, réduit son prix d'équilibre ce qui se traduit par un accroissement de sa demande totale, cet effet étant bénéfique à tous les acteurs, domestiques et étrangers du marché.

Depuis le milieu des années 1990, les cadres sont, eux aussi, concernés par la précarité. D'après l'enquête, l'intérim cadre représente un des révélateurs sensibles de certaines tendances actuelles du marché de l'emploi cadre, il relève de nouvelles représentations, pratiques et stratégies, aussi bien de la part des responsables d'entreprises de travail temporaire utilisatrices que celle des cadres. Les conditions d'émergence de l'intérim cadre pourraient se résumer ainsi ; un contexte de forte flexibilité a incité les organisations à se restructurer et à se réorganiser en profondeur ; cette nouvelle donne a favorisé l'apparition de l'intérim cadre, engendrant une segmentation de la catégorie et par-delà une nouvelle relation d'emploi et de travail. L'évolution soutenue de la demande d'intérimaires cadre a conduit un nouvel opérateur (les réseaux d'intérim) à se placer sur ce marché. L'utilisation de l'intérim correspond à un nouveau palier de rationalisation et d'externalisation au sein des organisations
This enquiry studies the birth and the development of high level temporary workers (professionals). The aimis the explanation of the conditions of emergency and developement of this new way of working. The objective is to show all actors concerned act to create a development of temporary work and how they regulate this specific employment market. The hypothesis is that organisational transformation of the firms leads to create high level temporary work. Actually enterprises employ so much high level temporary workers that temporary compagnies decided to get this new market ; to succeed they changed their structures to adapt themselves to this new market. The observations demonstrate that organisations develop a supplementary level of rationalisation and externalisation. This study shows how bad conditions of the employment market create new norms about work concerning professionals

L’étude présente un modèle d’estimation par panel et avec coïntégration de l’évolution régionale des prix sur le marché immobilier québécois. Nous utilisons des données provenant des régions administratives du Québec et couvrant la période 2002-2016. Nos résultats suggèrent que les élasticités-revenu de long terme du prix de l’immobilier sont considérablement différentes à travers les régions. De plus, les variables démographiques affectent l’ajustement des prix vers leur tendance de long terme et notre étude permet de différencier entre les effets des chocs migratoires et ceux des chocs d’accroissements naturels. Finalement, la composition par âge de la population a également un effet significatif sur l’accroissement des prix, notamment la proportion de 25 à 54 ans (effet positif) et la proportion de personnes âgées de 65 ans et plus (effet négatif). Les résultats montrent que l’utilisation d’un modèle par panel aide à identifier les aspects dynamiques spécifiques à chaque région.
The study presents a regional, panel-based model of the long term and short-term evolution of real estate prices in the administrative regions of Quebec. Allowing that dynamic adjustment to be different from one region to another, we find income elasticity (i.e. cointegration coefficients) that differ considerably one region to the next. In addition, since migratory shocks have potentially different effects from equivalent shocks related to natural increases, we show that migration has a higher effect on the real estate market. The age composition of the population also has a significant effect on average prices, both for young people (25 to 54 years) and for older people (65 years and over). These results suggest that using a panel model not allowing for differentiated regional dynamics leads to potentially less robust conclusions.

L’objet principal de cette thèse porte sur l’immigration turque dans l’industrie charbonnière belge dans une séquence historique qui débute en 1956, année de la catastrophe du Bois-du-Cazier à Marcinelle (262 morts), de l’arrêt définitif de tout recrutement au départ de l’Italie pour ce secteur d’activité réputé pour sa dangerosité, de l’extension des bassins de prospection de l’industrie minière et de ses premières tentatives de recrutement en Turquie, et s’achève en 1980, année du rétablissement par les Etats membres du Benelux de l’obligation du visa d’entrée touristique pour les ressortissants turcs au lendemain de l’avènement d’un nouveau régime militaire en Turquie, annonciateur d’un nouvel afflux migratoire conséquent.

Plus largement, la thèse interroge la pertinence du postulat qui veut que les politiques migratoires conçues et mises en oeuvre par les pouvoirs publics, au cours des Golden Sixties, aient considéré les travailleurs migrants comme une main-d’oeuvre d’appoint temporaire.

La première partie de la thèse, qui porte sur la genèse de la politique d’immigration belge entre 1830 et 1960, recadre l’histoire de l’immigration turque dans l’industrie houillère belge et des politiques mises en oeuvre à son intention dans le contexte du double processus d’étatisation et de nationalisation des politiques migratoires au cours des XIXe et XXe siècles.

La seconde partie retrace la configuration des chaînes d’interdépendances qui relient les trajectoires migratoires des travailleurs migrants turcs recrutés par l’industrie charbonnière belge dans les années 1960 et 1970 aux dispositifs générés, séparément ou conjointement, par l’Etat belge, l’Etat turc, l’industrie charbonnière, les organisations syndicales et les services, associations et autres collectifs d’accueil et d’aide aux migrants pour organiser, stabiliser et intégrer cette immigration turque dans les régions minières du pays.

La troisième partie interroge le devenir de cette immigration turque au moment où les fermetures de charbonnages se succèdent et que de nouveaux besoins en main-d’oeuvre se font sentir dans les dernières sociétés charbonnières encore en activité. Elle esquisse en parallèle le processus d’étatisation des politiques d’intégration jusque-là principalement prises en charge par les modes de gestion paternalistes de l’industrie charbonnière.

Cette thèse aborde également, mais dans une moindre mesure, l’immigration originaire de Turquie avant 1960 et l’immigration turque qui se développe au cours des années 1960 et 1970, en marge de celle organisée en faveur de l’industrie charbonnière, à destination d’autres régions et secteurs d’activité du pays (Bruxelles, Anvers, Gand, Ardennes, etc.).

Son angle d’approche dépasse par ailleurs la seule immigration turque en Belgique et la seule politique migratoire belge. Elle s’intéresse ainsi, à travers des analyses comparées, au cas de l’immigration marocaine, qui lui est contemporain, ou encore à la politique migratoire néerlandaise, à l’origine d’un phénomène de désertion massive de l’industrie houillère belge par les ouvriers mineurs turcs.
Doctorat en Histoire, art et archéologie
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Dans cette thèse, nous étudions plusieurs problèmes de mathématiques financières liés à la présence d’imperfections sur les marchés. Notre approche principale pour leur résolution est l’utilisation d’un cadre asymptotique pertinent dans lequel nous parvenons à obtenir des solutions approchées explicites pour les problèmes de contrôle associés. Dans la première partie de cette thèse, nous nous intéressons à l’évaluation et la couverture des options européennes. Nous considérons tout d’abord la problématique de l’optimisation des dates de rebalancement d’une couverture à temps discret en présence d’une tendance dans la dynamique du sous-jacent. Nous montrons que dans cette situation, il est possible de générer un rendement positif tout en couvrant l’option et nous décrivons une stratégie de rebalancement asymptotiquement optimale pour un critère de type moyenne-variance. Ensuite, nous proposons un cadre asymptotique pour la gestion des options européennes en présence de coûts de transaction proportionnels. En s’inspirant des travaux de Leland, nous développons une méthode alternative de construction de portefeuilles de réplication permettant de minimiser les erreurs de couverture. La seconde partie de ce manuscrit est dédiée à la question du suivi d’une cible stochastique. L’objectif de l’agent est de rester proche de cette cible tout en minimisant le coût de suivi. Dans une asymptotique de coûts petits, nous démontrons l’existence d’une borne inférieure pour la fonction valeur associée à ce problème d’optimisation. Cette borne est interprétée en terme du contrôle ergodique du mouvement brownien. Nous fournissons également de nombreux exemples pour lesquels la borne inférieure est explicite et atteinte par une stratégie que nous décrivons. Dans la dernière partie de cette thèse, nous considérons le problème de consommation et investissement en présence de taxes sur le rendement des capitaux. Nous obtenons tout d’abord un développement asymptotique de la fonction valeur associée que nous interprétons de manière probabiliste. Puis, dans le cas d’un marché avec changements de régime et pour un investisseur dont l’utilité est du type Epstein-Zin, nous résolvons explicitement le problème en décrivant une stratégie de consommation-investissement optimale. Enfin, nous étudions l’impact joint de coûts de transaction et de taxes sur le rendement des capitaux. Nous établissons dans ce cadre un système d’équations avec termes correcteurs permettant d’unifier les résultats de [ST13] et[CD13]
In this thesis, we study several mathematical finance problems related to the presence of market imperfections. Our main approach for solving them is to establish a relevant asymptotic framework in which explicit approximate solutions can be obtained for the associated control problems. In the first part of this thesis, we are interested in the pricing and hedging of European options. We first consider the question of determining the optimal rebalancing dates for a replicating portfolio in the presence of a drift in the underlying dynamics. We show that in this situation, it is possible to generate positive returns while hedging the option and describe a rebalancing strategy which is asymptotically optimal for a mean-variance type criterion. Then we propose an asymptotic framework for options risk management under proportional transaction costs. Inspired by Leland’s approach, we develop an alternative way to build hedging portfolios enabling us to minimize hedging errors. The second part of this manuscript is devoted to the issue of tracking a stochastic target. The agent aims at staying close to the target while minimizing tracking efforts. In a small costs asymptotics, we establish a lower bound for the value function associated to this optimization problem. This bound is interpreted in term of ergodic control of Brownian motion. We also provide numerous examples for which the lower bound is explicit and attained by a strategy that we describe. In the last part of this thesis, we focus on the problem of consumption-investment with capital gains taxes. We first obtain an asymptotic expansion for the associated value function that we interpret in a probabilistic way. Then, in the case of a market with regime-switching and for an investor with recursive utility of Epstein-Zin type, we solve the problem explicitly by providing a closed-form consumption-investment strategy. Finally, we study the joint impact of transaction costs and capital gains taxes. We provide a system of corrector equations which enables us to unify the results in [ST13] and [CD13]

AbstractThere is a growing body of research showing that migration status can exacerbate the risk of DFV, and that targeted support is required for migrant and refugee women. Given this knowledge, the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns and stay-at-home orders for women holding temporary visas requires specific and focused attention. This chapter explores the differential impact of migration status on women’s experiences of DFV during the COVID-19 pandemic, drawing on 100 victim-survivor case files during the national lockdown in Australia in March 2020. This chapter illustrates the importance of paying close attention to the experiences and responses to DFV and the broader treatment of temporary migrants in the COVID-19 context.

AbstractI.I. Rabi, President of Associated Universities, Inc in New York to Wild on 20 August 1962:On 26 January 1962, Pawsey began organising a 1-month stay in Green Bank for March, an orientation visit. After the US, he planned to go to Paris to visit his daughter Margaret and her family, then continue back to Sydney via India. He hoped to arrive back in Sydney by 24 April 1962, Hastings Pawsey’s 17th birthday. As expected, Pawsey arranged his trip to the US and Europe in order to meet colleagues. In Pasadena on the way to New York, Green Bank and Washington, he planned to meet Gordon Stanley and Otto Struve. Later he was to meet Rabi in Boston in early March, just before his visit to Green Bank, which was to start about 20 March. These plans were outlined in a letter to Rabi on 26 January 1962, explaining that his home base in the US would his brother-in-law’s (Ted Nicoll) house in Princeton, New Jersey. Pawsey wrote:On 31 January 1962, Rabi replied, again with a handwritten letter: “I have set the machinery in train to help with your visit to make you an [NRAO] employee during the period [March-April] … Your visit will come at a crucial time [for the 140-foot telescope].” On the same day, Charles Dunbar, Secretary of AUI, wrote Pawsey with the details of the temporary visa process, the filing of a petition for permission to import a non-immigrant alien. Since Pawsey was “an alien of distinguished merit and ability”, the expectation was that the process would go smoothly. In fact, within 2 weeks, the NSF reported to AUI (15 February 1961, Dunbar to Pawsey) that “our petition to import you from Australia has been granted by [Immigration and Naturalisation Service]”. Dunbar was surprised: “I had no idea that such rapid action could be secured.”

The reverberations from Israeli news in Lebanon after the 2006 war, the repeated violations of Lebanese sovereignty by Tel Aviv's troops, the Israeli threats and psychological warfare, are one series of elements that will positively impact the Shiite mobilization around Hezbollah's cause. Though the showdown with the government, affairs of March 14th, the battle over the reconstruction, the quarrel over an International Tribunal, the presidential election, the debate over a united government and the dangerous rise of confessionalist, anti-Shiite discourse, Hezbollah's military intervention on Beirut's streets in May 2008 widened the gap between itself and its local adversaries, using them to secure the loyalty of its own followers.

The Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic has had a devastating impact on tourism entrepreneurs around the world. Tourism is South Africa has been at a temporary standstill since March 2020. The harsh effects of the pandemic have affected economies all over the world, resulting in a significant increase in global unemployment. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the tourism industry was one of the fastest-growing industries in the world, contributing 10.48% to the global gross domestic product (GDP).

Les systèmes de production s’adaptent aux évolutions du marché et intègrent les progrès techniques et sociaux. Ces systèmes sont donc maintenant qualifiés de système de production reconfigurable. Afin d’assurer cette reconfigurabilité, un système d’information robuste est nécessaire pour manager tous les acteurs du système de production. Ce chapitre illustre l’impact des systèmes industriels cyber-physiques sur les systèmes de production : comment ils permettent une amélioration des systèmes actuels.

At the time we were revising the proofs of this book, Italy suddenly became one of the countries most hit by Coronavirus (COVID-19). On 9 March 2020, Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte signed a decree implementing a complete lockdown aimed at ‘avoiding any movement of individuals’. Only a small number of ‘essential activities’ remained open: health services, of course, and food stores, as well as the industrial, agricultural and logistic activities linked to these two sectors. Where possible, working at a social distance was implemented. Where this was not possible, workers were covered by the WGF, which was also extended to people working in small firms and sectors that previously not had such protection. But, given the large amount of very small firms and of self-employed people in Italy, as well as the large numbers of seasonal or temporary workers in tourism and cultural activities, many had neither work nor income protection. Many small enterprises risk not being able to re-open their shops, for example, and those formerly employed in them are facing difficulties in finding work as the lockdown is gradually being lifted – non-food shops, restaurants, cafes, cultural venues, tourism, sports, together with schools and childcare and education services will be the last to be reopened. Tourism in particular, which accounts for 13.2 per cent of GNP in Italy and 14.9 per cent of total employment, will likely continue to suffer the effects of COVID-19 throughout the whole of 2020 and possibly into 2021....

On February 25, 2009, OCP Ecuador S.A. faced its first incident; an oil spill consisting of 11,700 barrels of heavy crude oil in an area of high biodiversity in eastern Ecuador. An earth movement caused stress in the pipeline causing its breakage. The temporarily impacted area covered 30 hectares of soil and gravel along 180 kilometers of three rivers that form the high watershed of the Amazon River; these rivers are the Santa Rosa, Quijos and the Coca. During the emergency, while workers rallied to contain the spill and clean the affected area, other workers took safety precautions regarding the health of the inhabitants of the area. Consequently, 1,258 residents from the Gonzalo Pizarro and Orellana cantons received medical assistance in order to rule out patients with pathologies related to the oil spill. OCP executed a joint effort with the Emergency Operations Committee (COE) stationed in Coca in order to supply water for the citizens that reside in the affected area. OCP responded to the requirements claimed by residents, all of which were approved by the COE. Communities affected by the event participated in cleaning efforts through the creation of temporary jobs for them. OCP strictly adhered to the regulations passed by the Ministry of the Environment and those of internationally accepted best practices for these types of events. The media and the citizenry were kept continuously abreast of developments. In addition, all corresponding works and reliability tests were performed on March 4 in order to restart pumping activities. On September 30th, 2009, and following a rigorous process of cleaning and remediation (L&Rr—in Spanish) activities, all tasks were completed in all affected areas prior to an inspection and a walking tour of the area performed by governmental authorities, community members and independent observers. For the collective benefit of affected communities, the environment and OCP, local authorities and international auditors recognized the model established during the event. OCP created a taskforce charged with the execution of the Environmental Remediation Program (PRA—in Spanish) and environmental authorities prepared and approved this program. The Environmental Remediation Taskforce (UPRA) covered the following aspects related to the incident: legal, environmental, cleaning and remediation technical aspects, as well as social, environmental, financial, insurance, internal and external communication aspects, along with a rigorous oversight of contractors. The model implemented is the first of its kind deployed in Ecuador. National and international regulations in force validated the methodology used to remediate the soil, riverbanks and surface water contaminated with the oil caused by the incident. The application of this methodology, aptly deployed in response to the distress situation present at the various affected areas, allowed a reduction in a short period, of the total hydrocarbon concentrations established in the environmental standard, to equal or lower values than those previously indicated for sensitive ecosystems. OCP developed and implemented a technical, environmental and economic matrix that allowed the Company to choose and justify the remediation methods used in affected areas.

New evidence suggests that over four months after the closure of early childhood development (ECD) programmes on 18 March 2020, the ECD sector was likely to be operating at less than a quarter of its pre-lockdown levels. Of the 38 percent of respondents from the new NIDS-CRAM survey reporting that children aged 0-6 in their households had attended ECD programmes before the lockdown in March, only 12 percent indicated that children had returned to these programmes by mid-July, well after programmes were allowed to reopen. Using these findings, we estimate that just 13 percent of children aged 0-6 were attending ECD programmes by mid-July to mid-August compared to 47 percent in 2018. The last time that ECD attendance rates were as low as this was in the early 2000s. At this point it is not yet clear what proportion of these declines are only temporary, or whether there will be a lasting impact on ECD enrolment in the country. This dramatic contraction in the ECD sector relates to prohibitive costs to reopening ‘safely’ imposed by the regulatory environment, coupled with shocks to the demand side for ECD programmes (both in terms of reduced household incomes and parent fears of children contracting COVID-19). When viewed from a broader socio-economic lens, the threat of ECD programme closures across the nation will have impacts beyond ECD operators to the lives of millions of children, millions of households and millions of adults who rely on these ECD services. A swift intervention by government is necessary to save this important sector and limit the ripple effect of programme closures on multiple layers of society.

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) is a fiber optic sensing system that is used for vibration monitoring. At a minimum, DAS is composed of a fiber optic cable and an optic analyzer called an interrogator. The oil and gas industry has used DAS for over a decade to monitor infrastructure such as pipelines for leaks, and in recent years changes in DAS performance over time have been observed for DAS arrays that are buried in the ground. This dissertation investigates the effect that soil type, soil temperature, soil moisture, time in-situ, and vehicle loading have on DAS performance for fiber optic cables buried in soil. This was accomplished through a field testing program involving two newly installed DAS arrays. For the first installation, a new portion of DAS array was added to an existing DAS array installed a decade prior. The new portion of the DAS array was installed in four different soil types: native fill, sand, gravel, and an excavatable flowable fill. Soil moisture and temperature sensors were buried adjacent to the fiber optic cable to monitor seasonal environmental changes over time. Periodic impact testing was performed at set locations along the DAS array for over one year. A second, temporary DAS array was installed to test the effect of vehicle loading on DAS performance. Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR) of the DAS response was used for all the tests to evaluate the system performance. The results of the impact testing program indicated that the portions of the array in gravel performed more consistently over time. Changes in soil moisture or soil temperature did not appear to affect DAS performance. The results also indicated that time DAS performance does change somewhat over time. Performance variance increased in new portions of array in all material types through time. The SNR in portions of the DAS array in native silty sand material dropped slightly, while the SNR in portions of the array in sand fill and flowable fill material decreased significantly over time. This significant change in performance occurred while testing halted from March 2020 to August 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic. These significant changes in performance were observed in the new portion of test bed, while the performance of the prior installation remained consistent. It may be that, after some time in-situ, SNR in a DAS array will reach a steady state. Though it is unfortunate that testing was on pause while changes in DAS performance developed, the observed changes emphasize the potential of DAS to be used for infrastructure change-detection monitoring. In the temporary test bed, increasing vehicle loads were observed to increase DAS performance, although there was considerable variability in the measured SNR. The significant variation in DAS response is likely due to various industrial activities on-site and some disturbance to the array while on-boarding and off-boarding vehicles. The results of this experiment indicated that the presence of load on less than 10% of an array channel length may improve DAS performance. Overall, this dissertation provides guidance that can help inform the civil engineering community with respect to installation design recommendations related to DAS used for infrastructure monitoring.

Annual Report on Migration and Asylum gives overview of statistics and developments in migration in 2022. The European Migration Network (EMN) Ireland within the ESRI has published its annual review of migration and asylum in Ireland. The EMN is an EU network that provides objective, comparable policy-relevant information on migration and international protection. EMN Ireland is located in the ESRI and is funded by the European Union and the Department of Justice. With an overview of the latest data as well as policy and operational developments, research, and case law from 2022, this report is a comprehensive reference that gives an opportunity to view the entire migration landscape in Ireland. The report shows that many forms of migration are recovering quickly from COVID-19 travel restrictions. It also shows that migration is being impacted by shortages in the labour market and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. As a result of these developments and others, Ireland saw a significant increase in immigration, with 141,600 people arriving in the year leading up to April 2023, according to CSO figures. This represents a 31% increase from the year to April 2022. However, emigration also increased, with 64,000 individuals leaving Ireland during the same period, marking a 14% increase from the previous year. 2022 saw a significant increase in first residence permits (which are granted to migrants from outside the EEA) from 2021. 85,793 permits were issued in 2022, with education the most common reason for permits (48%). Partially reflecting changes to eligible occupations for employment permits, the number of employment permits issued was the highest in the last 10 years. 39,995 employment permits were issued, with the information and communication sector the largest recipient of permits. Key developments in this area highlighted by the report include discussions on and progress with the Employment Permits Bill, changes to the Atypical Working Scheme, plans for a single application procedure for employment permits and immigration permissions, and changes to employment permits occupation lists to respond to labour market shortages. The report analyses international protection, showing significant increases in international protection applications as well as details of applications, decisions made, and statuses awarded. It shows an expansion of decision-making in response to increased applications. Looking at the broader EU situation, the report shows that applications for international protection in Ireland accounted for 1.3% of the EU total in 2022. The report also details the pressure on the reception and accommodation system for international protection applicants and beneficiaries of temporary protection, as well as the extraordinary measures taken to scale these up. It highlights measures taken to implement the White Paper to End Direct Provision and informs on a review of timelines of the plan. It discusses changes made by the International Protection Office to speed up processing, and criticism of these measures by NGOs, as well as details of the regularisation scheme for undocumented migrants and the humanitarian admission of Afghans. The Temporary Protection Directive – an EU Directive that creates an exceptional measure to provide immediate and temporary protection in the event of a mass influx of displaced persons – was triggered for the first time in March 2022, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. As a result, the report includes a dedicated chapter with statistics relating to arrivals and a detailed overview of Ireland’s response to displaced persons from Ukraine. It also gives a comprehensive overview of other areas of migration, as well as research and case law from 2022, providing a crucial reference text for anyone working in the area.

La gestion des risques industriels soulève de nombreuses questions auxquelles on ne peut pas répondre par un simple «oui» ou «non»: (1) quels critères la société devrait-elle utiliser pour décider que les risques d'une installation industrielle ont été réduits aussi bas que raisonnablement praticable? (2) comment arbitrer entre des considérations qui relèvent de «dimensions» différentes: morts et blessés potentiels en cas d'accident industriel, impacts potentiels sur l'environnement, enjeux financiers, développement de l'emploi, déménagements forcés en cas d'expropriation d'habitations, etc. et ayant des impacts sur de multiples parties prenantes (riverains des installations industrielles, exploitants et employés des sites, élus locaux et régionaux, etc.)? L'analyse coût-bénéfices (ACB) est un outil d'aide à la décision qui peut faciliter la discussion entre parties prenantes. Elle fournit un cadre structuré permettant de présenter l'ensemble des éléments de la décision et discuter de leur pondération respective, favorisant ainsi la transparence du processus décisionnel. Cet outil est largement utilisé dans les pays anglo-saxons en matière de réglementation environnementale et de décisions concernant la sécurité industrielle. Le présent document vise à aider des analystes qui souhaiteraient conduire une ACB d'un projet d'investissement en matière de sécurité ou une analyse d'impact d'une réglementation liée à la prévention. Il vise également à éclairer les lecteurs de telles études et les aider à évaluer la qualité de l'analyse. Le document présente les concepts économiques qui sous-tendent l'ACB, et décrit les principales étapes pratiques d'une étude. Il fournit des indications sur les sources de données permettant de monétiser différentes conséquences hors-marché de l'activité industrielle (impact sur la santé et la sécurité des personnes, pollutions environnementales et nuisances sonores). Le document propose également une check-list des questions qu'il peut être utile de se poser lors de la lecture critique d'une étude ACB.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

The Colombian financial system has not suffered major structural disruptions during these months of deep economic contraction and has continued to carry out its basic functions as usual, thus facilitating the economy's response to extreme conditions. This is the result of the soundness of financial institutions at the beginning of the crisis, which was reflected in high liquidity and capital adequacy indicators as well as in the timely response of various authorities. Banco de la República lowered its policy interest rates 250 points to 1.75%, the lowest level since the creation of the new independent bank in 1991, and provided ample temporary and permanent liquidity in both pesos and foreign currency. The Office of the Financial Superintendent of Colombia, in turn, adopted prudential measures to facilitate changes in the conditions for loans in effect and temporary rules for rating and loan-loss provisions. Finally, the national government expanded the transfers as well as the guaranteed credit programs for the economy. The supply of real credit (i.e. discounting inflation) in the economy is 4% higher today than it was 12 months ago with especially marked growth in the housing (5.6%) and commercial (4.7%) loan portfolios (2.3% in consumer and -0.1% in microloans), but there have been significant changes over time. During the first few months of the quarantine, firms increased their demands for liquidity sharply while consumers reduced theirs. Since then, the growth of credit to firms has tended to slow down, while consumer and housing credit has grown. The financial system has responded satisfactorily to the changes in the respective demands of each group or sector and loans may grow at high rates in 2021 if GDP grows at rates close to 4.6% as the technical staff at the Bank expects; but the forecasts are highly uncertain. After the strict quarantine implemented by authorities in Colombia, the turmoil seen in March and early April, which was evident in the sudden reddening of macroeconomic variables on the risk heatmap in Graph A,[1] and the drop in crude oil and coal prices (note the high volatility registered in market risk for the region on Graph A) the local financial markets stabilized relatively quickly. Banco de la República’s credible and sustained policy response played a decisive role in this stabilization in terms of liquidity provision through a sharp expansion of repo operations (and changes in amounts, terms, counterparties, and eligible instruments), the purchases of public and private debt, and the reduction in bank reserve requirements. In this respect, there is now abundant aggregate liquidity and significant improvements in the liquidity position of investment funds. In this context, the main vulnerability factor for financial stability in the short term is still the high degree of uncertainty surrounding loan quality. First, the future trajectory of the number of people infected and deceased by the virus and the possible need for additional health measures is uncertain. For that reason, there is also uncertainty about the path for economic recovery in the short and medium term. Second, the degree to which the current shock will be reflected in loan quality once the risk materializes in banks’ financial statements is uncertain. For the time being, the credit risk heatmap (Graph B) indicates that non-performing and risky loans have not shown major deterioration, but past experience indicates that periods of sharp economic slowdown eventually tend to coincide with rises in non-performing loans: the calculations included in this report suggest that the impact of the recession on credit quality could be significant in the short term. This is particularly worrying since the profitability of credit establishments has been declining in recent months, and this could affect their ability to provide credit to the real sector of the economy. In order to adopt a forward-looking approach to this vulnerability, this Report presents several stress tests that evaluate the resilience of the liquidity and capital adequacy of credit institutions and investment funds in the event of a hypothetical scenario that seeks to simulate an extreme version of current macroeconomic conditions. The results suggest that even though there could be strong impacts on the credit institutions’ volume of credit and profitability under such scenarios, aggregate indicators of total and core capital adequacy will probably remain at levels that are above the regulatory limits over the horizon of a year. At the same time, the exercises highlight the high capacity of the system's liquidity to face adverse scenarios. In compliance with its constitutional objectives and in coordination with the financial system's security network, Banco de la República will continue to closely monitor the outlook for financial stability at this juncture and will make the decisions that are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of the economy, facilitate the flow of sufficient credit and liquidity resources, and further the smooth operation of the payment systems. Juan José Echavarría Governor