Thematische Bibliographien / Low probability events

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Auswahl der wissenschaftlichen Literatur zum Thema „Low probability events“

Autor: Grafiati

Veröffentlicht am 4. Juni 2021

Zuletzt aktualisiert am 11. Februar 2022

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Zeitschriftenartikel zum Thema "Low probability events"

Koehler, Jonathan J., und Laura Macchi. „Thinking About Low-Probability Events“. Psychological Science 15, Nr. 8 (August 2004): 540–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0956-7976.2004.00716.x.

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Chaudhry, Shereen J., Michael Hand und Howard Kunreuther. „Broad bracketing for low probability events“. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 61, Nr. 3 (Dezember 2020): 211–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11166-020-09343-4.

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AbstractIndividuals tend to underprepare for rare, catastrophic events because of biases in risk perception. A simple form of broad bracketing—presenting the cumulative probability of loss over a longer time horizon—has the potential to alleviate these barriers to accurate risk perception and increase protective actions such as purchasing flood insurance. However, it is an open question whether broad bracketing effects last over time: There is evidence that descriptive probability information is ignored when decisions are based on “experience” (repeatedly and in the face of feedback), which characterizes many protective decisions. Across six incentive-compatible experiments with high stakes, we find that the broad bracketing effect does not disappear or change size when decisions are made from experience. We also advance our understanding of the mechanisms underlying broad bracketing, finding that, while cumulative probability size is a strong driver of the effect, this is dampened for larger brackets leading people to be less sensitive to probability size.

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Munro, D. J., O. K. Ersoy, M. R. Bell und J. S. Sadowsky. „Neural network learning of low-probability events“. IEEE Transactions on Aerospace and Electronic Systems 32, Nr. 3 (Juli 1996): 898–910. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/7.532251.

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Camerer, Colin F., und Howard Kunreuther. „Decision Processes for Low Probability Events: Policy Implications“. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 8, Nr. 4 (1989): 565. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3325045.

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Merz, B., F. Elmer und A. H. Thieken. „Significance of "high probability/low damage" versus "low probability/high damage" flood events“. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 9, Nr. 3 (30.06.2009): 1033–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-1033-2009.

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Abstract. The need for an efficient use of limited resources fosters the application of risk-oriented design in flood mitigation. Flood defence measures reduce future damage. Traditionally, this benefit is quantified via the expected annual damage. We analyse the contribution of "high probability/low damage" floods versus the contribution of "low probability/high damage" events to the expected annual damage. For three case studies, i.e. actual flood situations in flood-prone communities in Germany, it is shown that the expected annual damage is dominated by "high probability/low damage" events. Extreme events play a minor role, even though they cause high damage. Using typical values for flood frequency behaviour, flood plain morphology, distribution of assets and vulnerability, it is shown that this also holds for the general case of river floods in Germany. This result is compared to the significance of extreme events in the public perception. "Low probability/high damage" events are more important in the societal view than it is expressed by the expected annual damage. We conclude that the expected annual damage should be used with care since it is not in agreement with societal priorities. Further, risk aversion functions that penalise events with disastrous consequences are introduced in the appraisal of risk mitigation options. It is shown that risk aversion may have substantial implications for decision-making. Different flood mitigation decisions are probable, when risk aversion is taken into account.

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Popov, Pavel P., Athanasios Sideris und William A. Sirignano. „Low-Probability Events Leading to Rocket Engine Combustion Instability“. AIAA Journal 55, Nr. 3 (März 2017): 919–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.2514/1.j055276.

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Williams, M. M. R., und M. C. Thorne. „The estimation of failure rates for low probability events“. Progress in Nuclear Energy 31, Nr. 4 (Januar 1997): 373–476. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0149-1970(96)00022-4.

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Bussière, Matthieu, und Marcel Fratzscher. „Low probability, high impact: Policy making and extreme events“. Journal of Policy Modeling 30, Nr. 1 (Januar 2008): 111–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2007.03.007.

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Bonilla, Claudio A. „SOCIAL CHOICE AND TIME CONSISTENCY WITH LOW-PROBABILITY EVENTS“. Macroeconomic Dynamics 21, Nr. 7 (06.06.2016): 1706–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100515001030.

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A key result in macroeconomics is the “time inconsistency of short-run optimal plans.” It is argued that inflationary bias results if central bankers do not precommit to a monetary policy rule. The macro literature, however, does not address the way in which board members arrive at the “optimal choice of inflation rate.” That is a matter of a micro subfield called social choice. If we consider that on any board, members have different priors about the states of nature for the economy, but they all receive the same signal before deciding, then they will have different posterior probabilities for the states, even if they have many data, if one state has a low probability of occurring, such as an unlikely catastrophic-risk event. Thus, it is not clear what the optimal plan is. Therefore, discretion rather than rules may be the optimal plan in social choice settings.

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Demir, Sercan, und Murat Erkoc. „Contingency Inventory Reservation for Low-Probability High-Impact Events“. International Journal of Knowledge-Based Organizations 9, Nr. 2 (April 2019): 1–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/ijkbo.2019040101.

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This article investigates reservation contracts for contingency inventory management between two buyers and a single supplier under a game theoretic framework. Two channel structures are considered in this context. In the first setting, the buyers simultaneously move to offer reservation fees to the supplier, who in turn, decides on the inventory amount she wants to carry for each buyer. In the second setting, the supplier moves first and offers nonrefundable-deductible reservation fees for the buyers, who respond with their respective reservation quantities. By reserving through a shared supplier, the buyers enable a contingency inventory pool which alleviates overage risk for the supplier and enables availability of products after low-probability high-impact events. Conditions for successful implementation of contingency reservation contracts are investigated. The results obtained for both channel structures were contrasted. It is shown that in a market where the buyers have more negotiation power, reservation contracts are more likely to achieve inventory buildup under relatively lower event probabilities.

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Dissertationen zum Thema "Low probability events"

Riddle, Lorna Isabel. „Variations in organisational and employee responses to high-impact, low-probability events“. Thesis, King's College London (University of London), 2015. https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/variations-in-organisational-and-employee-responses-to-highimpact-lowprobability-events(51337c7f-13b7-4d9a-a94b-ea6a41fdcab0).html.

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High-impact, low-probability events such as chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) terrorist attacks have the potential to cause serious disruption to national infrastructure organisations in the UK. Although research examining the willingness and ability of healthcare workers to report to work during an extreme event has been conducted, little is known about levels of willingness and ability for employees of other sectors of national infrastructure. This thesis presents much needed evidence regarding the likely concerns, behavioural responses and information needs of employees of national infrastructure organisations in the UK during extreme events, with a focus on CBRN terrorist attacks. An interview study revealed that many resilience professionals assumed their staff would be willing to report to work during extreme events and had not placed sufficient emphasis on facilitating staff willingness to return to work during a crisis. An employee web survey revealed that in the case of some CBRN scenarios, less than a quarter of staff reported they would be willing to go to work. A series of employee focus groups revealed that staff will face a variety of barriers during a CBRN incident and will expect a great deal from their employer, including medical interventions and accurate, scientific information. At present, it appears likely that national infrastructure organisations’ plans will not meet the expectations of their staff and will fail to address their numerous practical, psychological and communication needs in the event of a CBRN terrorist attack. This research has drawn on theories of risk perception and risk communication, alongside theoretical frameworks from health psychology and social psychology, to understand likely employee responses to extreme events. A series of recommendations are suggested for UK national infrastructure organisations’ business continuity plans and activities, including strategies that could be used to motivate and support staff in their return to work during an extreme event.

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Delgado, Joao Pedro Correa. „Systemic modelling applied to studying outbreaks of exotic animal diseases“. Thesis, Cranfield University, 2011. http://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/7896.

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Context and rationale – This work originates from policy priorities established within Defra to manage exotic animal diseases (EAD); specifically to understand the causes of low probability events, and to establish contingencies to manage outbreak incidents. Outbreaks of exotic animal diseases, e.g. FMD, CSF and HPAI, can cause economic and social impacts of catastrophic proportions. The UK’s government develops and implements policies and controls to prevent EAD and thus minimise these impacts. Control policies to achieve this are designed to address the vulnerabilities within the control systems. However, data are limited for both the introduction of an EAD as well as its resurgence following the disposal of infected carcasses, i.e. the pre-outbreak and post-outbreak phases of an EAD event. These lack of data compromises the development of policy interventions to improve protection. To overcome these data limitations, predictive models are used to predict system vulnerabilities. Cont/d.

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Shao, Jun. „Calcul de probabilités d'événements rares liés aux maxima en horizon fini de processus stochastiques“. Thesis, Clermont-Ferrand 2, 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016CLF22771/document.

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Initiée dans le cadre d’un projet ANR (le projet MODNAT) ciblé sur la modélisation stochastique de phénomènes naturels et la quantification probabiliste de leurs effets dynamiques sur des systèmes mécaniques et structuraux, cette thèse a pour objet le calcul de probabilités d’événements rares liés aux maxima en horizon fini de processus stochastiques, avec prise en compte des quatre contraintes imposées suivantes : (1) l’ensemble des processus considérés doit contenir les quatre grandes catégories de processus rencontrés en dynamique aléatoire, à savoir les gaussiens stationnaires, les gaussiens non stationnaires, les non gaussiens stationnaires et les non gaussiens non stationnaires ; (2) ces processus doivent pouvoir être, soit décrits par leurs lois, soit fonctions de processus décrits par leurs lois, soit solutions d’équations différentielles stochastiques, soit même solutions d’inclusions différentielles stochastiques ; (3) les événements en question sont des dépassements de seuils très élevés par les maxima en horizon fini des processus considérés et ces événements sont de très faible occurrence, donc de très faible probabilité (de l’ordre de 10 −4 à 10 −8 ), du fait de la valeur élevée des seuils ; et enfin (4) le recours à une approche Monte-Carlo pour effectuer ce type de calcul doit être banni, car trop chronophage compte tenu des contraintes précédentes. Pour résoudre un tel problème, dont le domaine d’intérêt s’étend bien au delà de la mécanique probabiliste et de la fiabilité structurale (on le rencontre notamment dans tous les secteurs scientifiques en connexion avec la statistique des valeurs extrêmes, comme par exemple les mathématiques financières ou les sciences économiques) une méthode innovante est proposée, dont l’idée maîtresse est née de l’analyse des résultats d’une étude statistique de grande ampleur menée dans le cadre du projet MODNAT. Cette étude, qui porte sur l’analyse du comportement des valeurs extrêmes des éléments d’un vaste ensemble de processus, a en effet mis en évidence deux fonctions germes dépendant explicitement de la probabilité cible (la première en dépendant directement, la seconde indirectement via une probabilité conditionnelle auxiliaire elle-même fonction de la probabilité cible) et possédant des propriétés de régularité remarquables et récurrentes pour tous les processus de la base de données, et c’est sur l’exploitation conjointe de ces propriétés et d’un principe d’approximation bas niveau-extrapolation haut niveau que s’appuie la construction de la méthode. Deux versions de celle-ci en sont d’abord proposées, se distinguant par le choix de la fonction germe et dans chacune desquelles cette fonction est approximée par un polynôme. Une troisième version est également développée, basée sur le formalisme de la deuxième version mais utilisant pour la fonction germe une approximation de type "fonction de survie de Pareto". Les nombreux résultats numériques présentés attestent de la remarquable efficacité des deux premières versions. Ils montrent également que celles-ci sont de précision comparable. La troisième version, légèrement moins performante que les deux premières, présente quant à elle l’intérêt d’établir un lien direct avec la théorie des valeurs extrêmes. Dans chacune de ses trois versions, la méthode proposée constitue à l’évidence un progrès par rapport aux méthodes actuelles dédiées à ce type de problème. De par sa structure, elle offre en outre l’avantage de rester opérationnelle en contexte industriel
Initiated within the framework of an ANR project (the MODNAT project) targeted on the stochastic modeling of natural hazards and the probabilistic quantification of their dynamic effects on mechanical and structural systems, this thesis aims at the calculation of probabilities of rare events related to the maxima of stochastic processes over a finite time interval, taking into account the following four constraints : (1) the set of considered processes must contain the four main categories of processes encountered in random dynamics, namely stationary Gaussian, non-stationary Gaussian, stationary non-Gaussian and non-stationary non-Gaussian ones ; (2) these processes can be either described by their distributions, or functions of processes described by their distributions, or solutions of stochastic differential equations, or solutions of stochastic differential inclusions ; (3) the events in question are crossings of high thresholds by the maxima of the considered processes over finite time intervals and these events are of very weak occurrence, hence of very small probability, due to the high size of thresholds ; and finally (4) the use of a Monte Carlo approach to perform this type of calculation must be proscribed because it is too time-consuming given the above constraints. To solve such a problem, whose field of interest extends well beyond probabilistic mechanics and structural reliability (it is found in all scientific domains in connection with the extreme values theory, such as financial mathematics or economical sciences), an innovative method is proposed, whose main idea emerged from the analysis of the results of a large-scale statistical study carried out within the MODNAT project. This study, which focuses on analyzing the behavior of the extreme values of elements of a large set of processes, has indeed revealed two germ functions explicitly related to the target probability (the first directly related, the second indirectly via a conditional auxiliary probability which itself depend on the target probability) which possess remarkable and recurring regularity properties for all the processes of the database, and the method is based on the joint exploitation of these properties and a "low level approximation-high level extrapolation" principle. Two versions of this method are first proposed, which are distinguished by the choice of the germ function and in each of which the latter is approximated by a polynomial. A third version has also been developed. It is based on the formalism of the second version but which uses as germ function an approximation of "Pareto survival function" type. The numerous presented numerical results attest to the remarkable effectiveness of the first two versions. They also show that they are of comparable precision. The third version, slightly less efficient than the first two, presents the interest of establishing a direct link with the extreme values theory. In each of its three versions, the proposed method is clearly an improvement compared to current methods dedicated to this type of problem. Thanks to its structure, it also offers the advantage of remaining operational in industrial context

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Bakšajeva, Tatjana. „Santrauka“. Doctoral thesis, Lithuanian Academic Libraries Network (LABT), 2013. http://vddb.laba.lt/obj/LT-eLABa-0001:E.02~2013~D_20130604_083047-52055.

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Disertacijoje nagrinėjamos atsitiktinių keitinių problemos yra priskirtinos tikimybinei kombinatorikai. Gauti rezultatai aprašo visiškai adityviųjų funkcijų, apibrėžtų simetrinėje grupėje, reikšmių asimptotinius skirstinius Evenso tikimybinio mato atžvilgiu, kai grupės eilė neaprėžtai didėja. Išvestos adityviųjų funkcijų laipsninių ir faktorialinių momentų formulės. Funkcijų, išreiškiančių atsitiktinio keitinio ciklų su bet kokiais apribojimais skaičius, atveju rastos būtinos ir pakankamos ribinių tikimybinių dėsnių egzistavimo sąlygos. Išsamiai išnagrinėtas konvergavimas į Puasono, quasi-Puasono, Bernulio, binominio ir kitus skirstinius, sukoncentruotus sveikųjų neneigiamų skaičių aibėje. Rezultatai apibendrinti sveikareikšmių visiškai adityviųjų funkcijų klasėje. Darbe įrodytas bendras silpnasis didžiųjų skaičių dėsnis, rastos būtinos ir pakankamos adityviųjų funkcijų sekų pasiskirstymo funkcijų konvergavimo į išsigimusį nuliniame taške dėsnį egzistavimo sąlygos. Sprendžiamos problemos yra susietos su tikimybiniais vektorių, turinčių sveikąsias neneigiamas koordinates, uždaviniais. Adicinėje tokių vektorių pusgrupėje išnagrinėti multiplikatyviųjų funkcijų vidurkiai tikimybinio mato, vadinamo Evanso atrankos formule, atžvilgiu. Gauti tikslūs viršutinieji ir apatinieji įverčiai. Iš jų išplaukia svarbios atsitiktinių keitinių tikimybių savybės. Disertacijoje plėtojami faktorialinių momentų ir kiti kombinatoriniai bei tikimybiniai metodai.
In the thesis the examining problems of random permutations are attributed to the probabilistic combinatorics. Obtained results describe asymptotical distributions of completely additive functions values defined on a symmetric group with respect to Ewens probability measure, if the group order unbounded increases. Power and factorial moments formulae of additive functions are derived. There are established necessary and sufficient conditions under which the distributions of a number of cycles with restricted lengths obey the limit probability laws. The convergence to the Poisson, quasi-Poisson, Bernoulli, binomial and other distributions, defined on the positive whole - number set are exhaustively investigated. The results are generalized on the class of whole - number completely additive functions. The general weak law of large numbers is proved in the thesis, necessary and sufficient existence conditions, under which the distributions of the sequences of additive functions converge to the degenerate at the point zero limit law are established. Examining problems are related to the probability tasks of the vectors, which have whole - numbered nonnegative coordinates. The mean values of multiplicative functions defined on those vectors’ additive semigroup with respect to the Ewens measure, called Ewens Sampling Formula, and investigated. Lower and upper sharp estimates are obtained. From the latter results follow important probabilities’ properties of random... [to full text]

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Bücher zum Thema "Low probability events"

Svensson, Lars E. O. Optimal policy with low-probability extreme events. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2003.

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Svensson, Lars E. O. Optimal policy with low-probability extreme events. Cambridge, Mass: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2003.

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Risk Analysis and Control for Industrial Processes - Gas, Oil and Chemicals: A System Perspective for Assessing and Avoiding Low-Probability, High-Consequence Events. Elsevier Science & Technology Books, 2015.

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Coaffee, Jon. Futureproof. Yale University Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.12987/yale/9780300228670.001.0001.

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Catastrophic events such as 9/11, Hurricane Katrina, and the Tohoku ‘Triple Disaster’ of earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear meltdown that hit the eastern seaboard of Japan in 2012 are seen as surprises that have a low probability of occurring but have a debilitating impact when they do. In this eye-opening journey through modern and ancient risk management practices, the author explains why we need to find a new way to navigate the deeply uncertain world that we live in. Examining how governments have responded to terrorist threats, climate change, and natural hazards, the book shows how and why these measures have proven inadequate and what should be done to make us more resilient. While conventional approaches have focused on planning and preparing for disruptions and enhanced our ability to ‘bounce back’, our focus should be on anticipating future challenges and enhancing our capacity to adapt to new threats.

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Rau, Jochen. Introduction. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780199595068.003.0001.

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Statistical mechanics concerns the transition from the microscopic to the macroscopic realm. On a macroscopic scale new phenomena arise that have no counterpart in the microscopic world. For example, macroscopic systems have a temperature; they might undergo phase transitions; and their dynamics may involve dissipation. How can such phenomena be explained? This chapter discusses the characteristic differences between the microscopic and macroscopic realms and lays out the basic challenge of statistical mechanics. It suggests how, in principle, this challenge can be tackled with the help of conservation laws and statistics. The chapter reviews some basic notions of classical probability theory. In particular, it discusses the law of large numbers and illustrates how, despite the indeterminacy of individual events, statistics can make highly accurate predictions about totals and averages.

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Dedehouanou, Sènakpon Fidèle A., und Didier Y. Alia. Dynamics of off-farm self-employment in West African Sahel. UNU-WIDER, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.35188/unu-wider/2020/899-3.

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This study uses detailed household-level data to analyse off-farm self-employment dynamics in Mali and Niger. It adds to the literature that acknowledges the existence of heterogeneities in informal work and the body of evidence on informal self-employment in fragile and conflict-affected countries. It finds that self-employed workers are more represented in the lower-tier informal work status, with a particularly high percentage in Niger and among female, rural, youth, and old adult workers in both countries. The study also finds that monthly average earnings from self-employment are lowest among lower-tier informal workers, who also have a low probability of transitioning out of this status. However, household-related factors such as asset and livestock holdings and non-labour income may play an important role in helping these vulnerable groups of workers move up the self-employment ladder, especially in the event of shocks.

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Fuss, Sabine. The 1.5°C Target, Political Implications, and the Role of BECCS. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.013.585.

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The 2°C target for global warming had been under severe scrutiny in the run-up to the climate negotiations in Paris in 2015 (COP21). Clearly, with a remaining carbon budget of 470–1,020 GtCO2eq from 2015 onwards for a 66% probability of stabilizing at concentration levels consistent with remaining below 2°C warming at the end of the 21st century and yearly emissions of about 40 GtCO2 per year, not much room is left for further postponing action. Many of the low stabilization pathways actually resort to the extraction of CO2 from the atmosphere (known as negative emissions or Carbon Dioxide Removal [CDR]), mostly by means of Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS): if the biomass feedstock is produced sustainably, the emissions would be low or even carbon-neutral, as the additional planting of biomass would sequester about as much CO2 as is generated during energy generation. If additionally carbon capture and storage is applied, then the emissions balance would be negative. Large BECCS deployment thus facilitates reaching the 2°C target, also allowing for some flexibility in other sectors that are difficult to decarbonize rapidly, such as the agricultural sector. However, the large reliance on BECCS has raised uneasiness among policymakers, the public, and even scientists, with risks to sustainability being voiced as the prime concern. For example, the large-scale deployment of BECCS would require vast areas of land to be set aside for the cultivation of biomass, which is feared to conflict with conservation of ecosystem services and with ensuring food security in the face of a still growing population.While the progress that has been made in Paris leading to an agreement on stabilizing “well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and “pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C” was mainly motivated by the extent of the impacts, which are perceived to be unacceptably high for some regions already at lower temperature increases, it has to be taken with a grain of salt: moving to 1.5°C will further shrink the time frame to act and BECCS will play an even bigger role. In fact, aiming at 1.5°C will substantially reduce the remaining carbon budget previously indicated for reaching 2°C. Recent research on the biophysical limits to BECCS and also other negative emissions options such as Direct Air Capture indicates that they all run into their respective bottlenecks—BECCS with respect to land requirements, but on the upside producing bioenergy as a side product, while Direct Air Capture does not need much land, but is more energy-intensive. In order to provide for the negative emissions needed for achieving the 1.5°C target in a sustainable way, a portfolio of negative emissions options needs to minimize unwanted effects on non–climate policy goals.

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Frew, Anthony. Air pollution. Herausgegeben von Patrick Davey und David Sprigings. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med/9780199568741.003.0341.

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Any public debate about air pollution starts with the premise that air pollution cannot be good for you, so we should have less of it. However, it is much more difficult to determine how much is dangerous, and even more difficult to decide how much we are willing to pay for improvements in measured air pollution. Recent UK estimates suggest that fine particulate pollution causes about 6500 deaths per year, although it is not clear how many years of life are lost as a result. Some deaths may just be brought forward by a few days or weeks, while others may be truly premature. Globally, household pollution from cooking fuels may cause up to two million premature deaths per year in the developing world. The hazards of black smoke air pollution have been known since antiquity. The first descriptions of deaths caused by air pollution are those recorded after the eruption of Vesuvius in ad 79. In modern times, the infamous smogs of the early twentieth century in Belgium and London were clearly shown to trigger deaths in people with chronic bronchitis and heart disease. In mechanistic terms, black smoke and sulphur dioxide generated from industrial processes and domestic coal burning cause airway inflammation, exacerbation of chronic bronchitis, and consequent heart failure. Epidemiological analysis has confirmed that the deaths included both those who were likely to have died soon anyway and those who might well have survived for months or years if the pollution event had not occurred. Clean air legislation has dramatically reduced the levels of these traditional pollutants in the West, although these pollutants are still important in China, and smoke from solid cooking fuel continues to take a heavy toll amongst women in less developed parts of the world. New forms of air pollution have emerged, principally due to the increase in motor vehicle traffic since the 1950s. The combination of fine particulates and ground-level ozone causes ‘summer smogs’ which intensify over cities during summer periods of high barometric pressure. In Los Angeles and Mexico City, ozone concentrations commonly reach levels which are associated with adverse respiratory effects in normal and asthmatic subjects. Ozone directly affects the airways, causing reduced inspiratory capacity. This effect is more marked in patients with asthma and is clinically important, since epidemiological studies have found linear associations between ozone concentrations and admission rates for asthma and related respiratory diseases. Ozone induces an acute neutrophilic inflammatory response in both human and animal airways, together with release of chemokines (e.g. interleukin 8 and growth-related oncogene-alpha). Nitrogen oxides have less direct effect on human airways, but they increase the response to allergen challenge in patients with atopic asthma. Nitrogen oxide exposure also increases the risk of becoming ill after exposure to influenza. Alveolar macrophages are less able to inactivate influenza viruses and this leads to an increased probability of infection after experimental exposure to influenza. In the last two decades, major concerns have been raised about the effects of fine particulates. An association between fine particulate levels and cardiovascular and respiratory mortality and morbidity was first reported in 1993 and has since been confirmed in several other countries. Globally, about 90% of airborne particles are formed naturally, from sea spray, dust storms, volcanoes, and burning grass and forests. Human activity accounts for about 10% of aerosols (in terms of mass). This comes from transport, power stations, and various industrial processes. Diesel exhaust is the principal source of fine particulate pollution in Europe, while sea spray is the principal source in California, and agricultural activity is a major contributor in inland areas of the US. Dust storms are important sources in the Sahara, the Middle East, and parts of China. The mechanism of adverse health effects remains unclear but, unlike the case for ozone and nitrogen oxides, there is no safe threshold for the health effects of particulates. Since the 1990s, tax measures aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions have led to a rapid rise in the proportion of new cars with diesel engines. In the UK, this rose from 4% in 1990 to one-third of new cars in 2004 while, in France, over half of new vehicles have diesel engines. Diesel exhaust particles may increase the risk of sensitization to airborne allergens and cause airways inflammation both in vitro and in vivo. Extensive epidemiological work has confirmed that there is an association between increased exposure to environmental fine particulates and death from cardiovascular causes. Various mechanisms have been proposed: cardiac rhythm disturbance seems the most likely at present. It has also been proposed that high numbers of ultrafine particles may cause alveolar inflammation which then exacerbates preexisting cardiac and pulmonary disease. In support of this hypothesis, the metal content of ultrafine particles induces oxidative stress when alveolar macrophages are exposed to particles in vitro. While this is a plausible mechanism, in epidemiological studies it is difficult to separate the effects of ultrafine particles from those of other traffic-related pollutants.

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Buchteile zum Thema "Low probability events"

Kunreuther, Howard, und Edward J. Kane. „Ambiguity and Government Risk-Bearing for Low-Probability Events“. In Government Risk-Bearing, 21–44. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1993. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-2184-2_2.

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McClelland, Gary H., William D. Schulze und Don L. Coursey. „Insurance for Low-Probability Hazards: A Bimodal Response to Unlikely Events“. In Making Decisions About Liability And Insurance, 95–116. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1993. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-2192-7_7.

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Mondragon, Adrian E. Coronado, und Christian E. Coronado Mondragon. „Rethinking the Management of Technological Innovations, Product Complexity and Modularity: The Effects of Low-Probability, High-Impact Events on Automotive Supply Chains“. In Driving the Economy through Innovation and Entrepreneurship, 525–35. India: Springer India, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-81-322-0746-7_43.

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Mondragon, Adrian E. Coronado, und Christian E. Coronado Mondragon. „The Effects of Low-Probability, High-Impact Events on Automotive Supply Chains: Black Swans and the 2011 Earthquake-Tsunami Disaster that Hit Japan“. In Sustaining Industrial Competitiveness after the Crisis, 104–13. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9781137010988_5.

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Finkelstein, Michael O. „Compound Events“. In Basic Concepts of Probability and Statistics in the Law, 41–52. New York, NY: Springer New York, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/b105519_3.

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Aaronson, Jon, und Manfred Denker. „On the functional law of the iterated logarithm for recurrent events“. In Probability in Banach Spaces 7, 1–11. Boston, MA: Birkhäuser Boston, 1990. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4684-0559-0_1.

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„Strategies for Managing Low-Probability, High-Impact Events“. In Learning from Megadisasters: Lessons from the Great East Japan Earthquake, herausgegeben von Federica Ranghieri und Mikio Ishiwatari, 297–304. The World Bank, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0153-2_ch32.

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„Low Probability Events and Dilemmas of Grassroots Governance“. In Improving Village Governance in Contemporary China, 167–74. BRILL, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1163/9789004448285_027.

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COROTIS, ROSS B. „RISK AND RISK PERCEPTION FOR LOW PROBABILITY, HIGH CONSEQUENCE EVENTS IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT“. In Recent Developments in Reliability-Based Civil Engineering, 1–20. WORLD SCIENTIFIC, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/9789812707222_0001.

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Gollier, Christian. „Parametric Uncertainty and Fat Tails“. In Pricing the Planet's Future. Princeton University Press, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.23943/princeton/9780691148762.003.0006.

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This chapter shows how the probability distribution for economic growth is subject to some parametric uncertainty. There is a limited data set for the dynamics of economic growth, and the absence of a sufficiently large data set to estimate the long-term growth process of the economy implies that its parameters are uncertain and subject to learning in the future. This problem is particularly crucial when its parameters are unstable, or when the dynamic process entails low-probability extreme events. Thus, the rarer the event, the less precise the estimate of its likelihood. This builds a bridge between the problem of parametric uncertainty, and the one of extreme events.

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Konferenzberichte zum Thema "Low probability events"

Coldwell, R. L. „Fractional counts-the simulation of low probability events“. In The CAARI 2000: Sixteenth international conference on the application of accelerators in research and industry. AIP, 2001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.1395378.

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Threadgold, Ian M. „Reducing the Risk of Low-Probability High-Consequence Events“. In SPE Americas E&P Health, Safety, Security, and Environmental Conference. Society of Petroleum Engineers, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/141763-ms.

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Popov, Pavel P., Athanasios Sideris und William A. Sirignano. „Low-Probability Events Leading to Rocket Engine Combustion Instability“. In 54th AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting. Reston, Virginia: American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.2514/6.2016-1932.

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Ilin, Roman, und Galina L. Rogova. „Multi-Model Threat Assessment Involving Low Probability High Consequence Events“. In 2018 International Conference on Information Fusion (FUSION). IEEE, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.23919/icif.2018.8454979.

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Powell, Mark A. „Risk assessment sensitivities for very low probability events with severe consequences“. In 2010 IEEE Aerospace Conference. IEEE, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/aero.2010.5446865.

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Ilin, Roman, und Galina L. Rogova. „Decision-making involving low probability high consequence events under risk and uncertainty“. In 2017 IEEE Conference on Cognitive and Computational Aspects of Situation Management (CogSIMA). IEEE, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/cogsima.2017.7929587.

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Dognini, Alberto, Abhinav Sadu, Andrea Angioni, Ferdinanda Ponci und Antonello Monti. „Service Restoration Algorithm for Distribution Grids under High Impact Low Probability Events“. In 2020 IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Europe (ISGT-Europe). IEEE, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/isgt-europe47291.2020.9248823.

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Coluccia, Angelo. „Robust estimation of the mean probability of binary events: A low-complexity minimax approach“. In 2013 18th International Conference on Digital Signal Processing (DSP). IEEE, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icdsp.2013.6622750.

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Hudson, P. A. R. „That Wasn't Supposed to Happen! Emergency Response Planning With Unforeseen High Consequence Low Probability Events.“ In SPE International Conference and Exhibition on Health, Safety, Security, Environment, and Social Responsibility. Society of Petroleum Engineers, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/190662-ms.

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Moreno, R., und G. Strbac. „Integrating high impact low probability events in smart distribution network security standards through CVAR optimisation“. In IET International Conference on Resilience of Transmission and Distribution Networks (RTDN) 2015. Institution of Engineering and Technology, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1049/cp.2015.0879.

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Berichte der Organisationen zum Thema "Low probability events"

Chaudhry, Shereen, Michael Hand und Howard Kunreuther. Broad Bracketing for Low Probability Events. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, Juni 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w27319.

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Svensson, Lars E. O. Optimal Policy with Low-Probability Extreme Events. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, Dezember 2003. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w10196.

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Kalinich, Donald A., Jon Craig Helton, Cedric M. Sallaberry und Patrick D. Mattie. Development, analysis, and evaluation of a commercial software framework for the study of Extremely Low Probability of Rupture (xLPR) events at nuclear power plants. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), Dezember 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1005032.

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Oldenburg, Curtis M., und Robert J. Budnitz. Low-Probability High-Consequence (LPHC) Failure Events in Geologic Carbon Sequestration Pipelines and Wells: Framework for LPHC Risk Assessment Incorporating Spatial Variability of Risk. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), August 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1332329.

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Lu, Shuai, Alan J. Brothers, Craig A. McKinstry, Shuangshuang Jin und Yuri V. Makarov. Low Probability Tail Event Analysis and Mitigation in the BPA Control Area. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), Oktober 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1012895.

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Lu, Shuai, Yuri V. Makarov, Craig A. McKinstry, Alan J. Brothers und Shuangshuang Jin. Low Probability Tail Event Analysis and Mitigation in BPA Control Area: Task 2 Report. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), September 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/967233.

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Lu, Shuai, und Yuri V. Makarov. Low Probability Tail Event Analysis and Mitigation in BPA Control Area: Task One Report. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), April 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1034596.

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