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Zeitschriftenartikel zum Thema „Macroeconometric“

Autor: Grafiati

Veröffentlicht am 4. Juni 2021

Zuletzt aktualisiert am 1. Februar 2022

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1

Smith, Peter N., and Ray C. Fair. "Testing Macroeconometric Models." Economic Journal 105, no. 433 (November 1995): 1669. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2235135.

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2

Cappelen, Ådne. "Testing macroeconometric models." Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 20, no. 9-10 (September 1996): 1809–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(95)00923-x.

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3

Joutz, Fred. "Testing of macroeconometric models." International Journal of Forecasting 12, no. 4 (December 1996): 559–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0169-2070(96)00694-2.

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4

Welfe, Wladyslaw. "Long-term macroeconometric models." Economic Modelling 28, no. 1-2 (January 2011): 741–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2010.05.002.

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5

Pesaran, M. H., and R. P. Smith. "Evaluation of macroeconometric models." Economic Modelling 2, no. 2 (April 1985): 125–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0264-9993(85)90018-5.

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6

Bolatbayeva, Aizhan, Alisher Tolepbergen, and Nurdaulet Abilov. "A macroeconometric model for Russia." Russian Journal of Economics 6, no. 2 (June 30, 2020): 114–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/j.ruje.6.47009.

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The paper outlines a structural macroeconometric model for the economy of Russia. The aim of the research is to analyze how the domestic economy functions, generate forecasts for important macroeconomic indicators and evaluate the responses of main endogenous variables to various shocks. The model is estimated based on quarterly data starting from 2001 to 2019. The majority of the equations are specified in error correction form due to the non-stationarity of variables. Stochastic simulation is used to solve the model for expost and ex-ante analysis. We compare forecasts of the model with forecasts generated by the VAR model. The results indicate that the present model outperforms the VAR model in terms of forecasting GDP growth, inflation rate and unemployment rate. We also evaluate the responses of main macroeconomic variables to VAT rate and world trade shocks via stochastic simulation. Finally, we generate ex-ante forecasts for the Russian economy under the baseline assumptions.

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7

Čížek, Ondřej. "Macroeconometric Model of the Eurozone." Politická ekonomie 63, no. 3 (June 1, 2015): 279–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.18267/j.polek.1003.

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8

Boumans, Marcel, and Pedro Garcia Duarte. "The History of Macroeconometric Modeling." History of Political Economy 51, no. 3 (June 1, 2019): 391–400. http://dx.doi.org/10.1215/00182702-7551828.

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9

Andersen, Ellen. "Danish Experience with Macroeconometric Models." Scandinavian Journal of Economics 93, no. 2 (June 1991): 315. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3440337.

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10

Welfe, Władysław. "Multicountry and Regional Macroeconometric Models." Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe 15, no. 4 (March 8, 2013): 293–304. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/v10103-012-0042-6.

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Multicountry models were developed in the previous century to serve the analyses and projections of the world economy and/or its regions (for instance Latin America). They distinguish the largest countries and the rest of the world (ROW) composed of particular countries. Hence, their structure is based on the specifications of equations for individual countries using full statistical information available at the countries level. The regional macroeconomic models are built for either administrative or geographical units distinguished within large countries (USA, China, Russia). Their structure should be in principle similar to those of the national economy. However, the statistical information of the regional economies is typically uncomplete: no sufficient information is available on exports and imports of the region, migrations and financial flows. Appropriate approximations are necessary. As in majority of countries the prices and wages movements are in general unified over the country, the variables representing the national level excerpt an impact on the regional variables. The regional impact on the national variables is rather unusual. The paper shows the skeleton model applied in the multicountry models and the skeleton of the macroeconomic regional model. The specific properties of the regional model are discussed and the possibilities of its extensions analysed.

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11

Bårdsen, Gunnar, Dag Kolsrud, and Ragnar Nymoen. "Forecast robustness in macroeconometric models." Journal of Forecasting 36, no. 6 (March 22, 2017): 629–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/for.2459.

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12

Chishti, Salim U., M. Aynul Hasan, and Syed F. Mahmud. "Macroeconometric modelling and Pakistan's economy." Journal of Development Economics 38, no. 2 (April 1992): 353–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0304-3878(92)90004-s.

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13

Weyerstrass, Klaus, and Daniela Grozea-Helmenstein. "A Macroeconometric Model for Serbia." International Advances in Economic Research 19, no. 2 (January 29, 2013): 85–106. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11294-013-9393-4.

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14

Garrison, Roger W., Ronald G. Bodkin, Lawrence R. Klein, and Kanta Marwah. "A History of Macroeconometric Model-Building." Southern Economic Journal 58, no. 4 (April 1992): 1129. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1060252.

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15

Kenway, Peter, Ronald G. Bodkin, Lawrence R. Klein, and Kanta Marwah. "A History of Macroeconometric Model-Building." Economic Journal 102, no. 413 (July 1992): 972. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2234599.

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16

Akbar, Muhammad, and Eatzaz Ahmad. "A Review of Macroeconometric Modeling Practices." Forman Journal of Economic Studies 10 (December 30, 2014): 17–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.32368/fjes.20141002.

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17

Haque, Nadeem U., Kajal Lahiri, and Peter J. Montiel. "A Macroeconometric Model for Developing Countries." Staff Papers - International Monetary Fund 37, no. 3 (September 1990): 537. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3867264.

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18

Wallis, Kenneth F. "Comparing Macroeconometric Models: A Review Article." Economica 60, no. 238 (May 1993): 225. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2554590.

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19

Deleau, M., C. Le Van, and P. Malgrange. "The Long Run of Macroeconometric Models." IFAC Proceedings Volumes 22, no. 5 (June 1989): 265–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s1474-6670(17)53461-8.

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20

Smith, Ron. "Emergent policy-making with macroeconometric models." Economic Modelling 15, no. 3 (July 1998): 429–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0264-9993(98)00021-2.

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21

Granger, Clive W. J. "OVERVIEW OF NONLINEAR MACROECONOMETRIC EMPIRICAL MODELS." Macroeconomic Dynamics 5, no. 4 (September 2001): 466–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100501023021.

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A survey of nonlinear multivariate macro empirical models is attempted. Although theory may suggest that nonlinearity is to be expected, empirical studies have difficulty in discovering strong consistent effects. Regime switching techniques appear to be the most successful and evidence of nonlinearity is most found for interest rates. Most of the studies emphasize model fitting rather than model evaluation, which limits their usefulness.

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22

PESARAN, M. HASHEM, and RON SMITH. "MACROECONOMETRIC MODELLING WITH A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE*." Manchester School 74, s1 (September 2006): 24–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9957.2006.00516.x.

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23

Colander, D. C. "A History of Macroeconometric Model-Building." History of Political Economy 26, no. 1 (March 1, 1994): 169–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1215/00182702-26-1-169.

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24

Backhouse, Roger E., and Beatrice Cherrier. "The Ordinary Business of Macroeconometric Modeling." History of Political Economy 51, no. 3 (June 1, 2019): 425–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1215/00182702-7551852.

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25

WALLIS, KENNETH F. "On Macroeconomic Policy and Macroeconometric Models*." Economic Record 69, no. 2 (June 1993): 113–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4932.1993.tb01808.x.

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26

Fisher, Paul G., and Kenneth F. Wallis. "Seasonality in large-scale macroeconometric models." Journal of Forecasting 11, no. 4 (June 1992): 255–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/for.3980110402.

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27

Moss, Scott, Michael Artis, and Paul Ormerod. "A smart automated macroeconometric forecasting system." Journal of Forecasting 13, no. 3 (May 1994): 299–312. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/for.3980130305.

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28

Aminu, Alarudeen, and Joshua Adeyemi Ogunjimi. "A Small Macroeconometric Model of Nigeria." Economy 6, no. 2 (2019): 41–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.20448/journal.502.2019.62.41.55.

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29

Fair, Ray C. "FAIRMODEL SITE." Macroeconomic Dynamics 2, no. 2 (June 1998): 284–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100598007068.

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The Internet has greatly expanded the way in which large-scale structural macroeconometric models can be used and disseminated. This note describes a site that has been created for this purpose: http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu.

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30

Carrasco and Gregoir. "Policy Evaluation in Macroeconometric Doubly Stochastic Models." Annales d'Économie et de Statistique, no. 67/68 (2002): 73. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/20076343.

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31

Fair, Ray C. "Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model." Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal 1, no. 2007-8 (2007): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2007-8.

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32

Pasha, Hafiz A., M. Aynul Hasan, Aisha Ghaus, and M. Ajaz Rasheed. "Integrated Social-sector Macroeconometric Model for Pakistan." Pakistan Development Review 35, no. 4II (December 1, 1996): 567–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.30541/v35i4iipp.567-579.

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While the traditional neoclassical production model postulates that it is the physical inputs such as private capital, labour, land, and technology that are the key determinants of output and economic development, in recent years, however, the social sector variables are also considered to be critical, particularly for the long-run sustainable growth of the economy. If fact, what has been argued in the form of “new growth theories” is that social variables (e.g., education, health, knowledge, etc.) generate “positive externalities” and, thus, may facilitate and foster the process of economic growth and development. Recently, the World Bank, based on a broad cross-country study, found some very interesting results in the above context. According to the World Development Report (1991): about fifty percent of the factor productivity contribution to output growth comes not from traditional physical inputs (capital, labour and land) but is a residual factor. This unexplained factor, in the past, has been labelled (or as the Report called it “baptised”) as “technological change”, however, the World Bank (1991, p. 42) claims that:

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33

Hall, Stephen G., and Ray C. Fair. "Specification, Estimation and Analysis of Macroeconometric Models." Economica 52, no. 207 (August 1985): 401. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2553869.

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34

Weyerstrass, Klaus. "A Macroeconometric Model for Bosnia and Herzegovina." Eastern European Economics 47, no. 5 (September 2009): 61–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.2753/eee0012-8775470504.

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35

Bean, C. R., and Ray C. Fair. "Specification, Estimation, and Analysis of Macroeconometric Models." Economic Journal 95, no. 378 (June 1985): 491. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2233227.

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36

Lodewijks, John. "Macroeconometric Models and the Methodology of Macroeconomics." History of Economics Society Bulletin 11, no. 1 (1989): 33–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1042771600005767.

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“The stimulation given by the General Theory to the construction and testing of aggregative models may well prove to be Keynes's chief contribution to economics in the longer perspective of historical judgement.”

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37

Eitrheim, Øyvind, Tore Anders Husebø, and Ragnar Nymoen. "Equilibrium-correction vs. differencing in macroeconometric forecasting." Economic Modelling 16, no. 4 (December 1999): 515–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0264-9993(99)00014-0.

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38

Dreger, Christian, and Massimiliano Marcellino. "A macroeconometric model for the Euro economy." Journal of Policy Modeling 29, no. 1 (January 2007): 1–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2006.01.007.

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39

Klein, Lawrence R., Fyodor I. Kushnirsky, and Svitlana V. Maksymenko. "Macroeconometric study of Ukraine's growth and reform." Journal of Policy Modeling 34, no. 3 (May 2012): 325–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2012.02.003.

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40

Bacchini, Fabio, Alessandro Girardi, and Carmine Pappalardo. "Macroeconometric models in practice: the Istat experience." International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics 5, no. 3 (2015): 345. http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/ijcee.2015.070618.

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41

TURNER, DAVID S., KENNETH F. WALLIS, and JOHN D. WHITLEY. "EVALUATING SPECIAL EMPLOYMENT MEASURES WITH MACROECONOMETRIC MODELS." Oxford Review of Economic Policy 3, no. 3 (1987): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/3.3.1-b.

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42

Kannapiran, Chinna. "A macroeconometric model of a developing economy." Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy 8, no. 1 (January 2003): 41–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/1354786032000045237.

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43

Howrey, E. Philip, and Ray C. Fair. "Specification, Estimation, and Analysis of Macroeconometric Models." Journal of the American Statistical Association 81, no. 393 (March 1986): 261. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2288018.

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44

Fair, Ray C. "Computing median unbiased estimates in macroeconometric models." Journal of Applied Econometrics 11, no. 4 (July 1996): 431–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/(sici)1099-1255(199607)11:4<431::aid-jae396>3.0.co;2-x.

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45

Qin, Duo, Marie Anne Cagas, Geoffrey Ducanes, Xinhua He, Rui Liu, Shiguo Liu, Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos, and Pilipinas Quising. "A macroeconometric model of the Chinese economy." Economic Modelling 24, no. 5 (September 2007): 814–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2007.02.005.

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46

Engels, J. R. "On simulation and optimization of macroeconometric models." European Journal of Operational Research 61, no. 3 (September 1992): 357–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0377-2217(92)90364-f.

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47

Christodoulakis, Nicos, and Martin Weale. "The stock exchange in a macroeconometric model." Economic Modelling 4, no. 3 (July 1987): 341–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0264-9993(87)90008-3.

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48

Lipumba, Nguyuru, Benno Ndulu, Sue Horton, and André Plourde. "A supply constrained macroeconometric model of Tanzania." Economic Modelling 5, no. 4 (October 1988): 354–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0264-9993(88)90009-0.

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49

Sakellariou, Christos N., and D. Juliet Howland. "An expenditure determined macroeconometric model of Greece." Economic Modelling 10, no. 1 (January 1993): 35–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0264-9993(93)90011-4.

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50

Beenstock, Michael, Yaakov Lavi, and Akiva Offenbacher. "A macroeconometric model for Israel 1962–1990." Economic Modelling 11, no. 4 (October 1994): 413–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0264-9993(94)90002-7.

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