Auswahl der wissenschaftlichen Literatur zum Thema „Television in consumer education“

XXI Century television is undergoing a process of transformation. New actors, new products and new ways of consuming television are on the lookout. Interactivity will make the traditional concept of television disappear. Television viewers can design their own grids independently of the operator’s schedule. The convergence of television and computer, Internet, telephone and video games bring us a new concept of television. Television faces two big transformations: digital transformation and that of the concept of «general public». The computer, the computer screen, has the calling of turning into a reception screen in which both computer and television functions fuse. Latest generation mobile telephony is integrating itself is this multimedia complex, in connection with television. Future television cannot dissociate from the Internet. La televisión del siglo XXI está en proceso de transformación. Nuevos actores, nuevos productos y nuevas formas de consumir televisión se atisban en el horizonte. La interactividad con la televisión hará desaparecer el concepto de televisión tradicional. El telespectador puede confeccionar sus propias parrillas, independientemente de la programación del operador. La convergencia de la televisión con el ordenador, Internet, el teléfono y los videojuegos nos llevan a un nuevo concepto de la televisión. La televisión se enfrenta a dos grandes transformaciones: la transformación digital y del concepto «público general». La nueva televisión propiciará una nueva forma de ver la televisión, en la que el espectador se olvidará del mundo para dialogar con la máquina e incluso, tomar decisiones que afecten a la programación. El anunciado apagón digital, previsto en España para 2010, va a revolucionar el panorama televisivo español. La oferta se ampliará y se sumará a la oferta del cable, satélite y teléfono. Se ampliarán las ofertas de televisión de pago. Estaremos ante un panorama absolutamente cambiante.

Over the past 10 to 15 years, there has been a significant change in people's access to information. The need for food producers to understand consumers and their motivation when choosing a product has increased. The article compares consumer preferences in the United States and Russia. Specific examples are used to analyze the difference in the perception of visual information depending on the experience and knowledge of the biological characteristics of pigs. The 9 most relevant issues of educational work, including: environmental protection measures, measures to reduce odors, production in the open air and indoors, fixed or free maintenance of pregnant sows, castration, cutting of tails, grinding of fangs, the practice of using antibiotics, the practice of using growth stimulants, the nature of rapid growth and achieving slaughter condition, animal welfare. The answers to most of the above questions are contained in the information and technical handbook of the Best Available Technologies Intensive Pig Breeding, which was put into effect in the Russian Federation in December 2017. As the main tools for information communication with the consumer, it is proposed to use more actively social networks, company websites on the Internet, television and radio, publications in the press, agrotourism, agricultural classes and agricultural classes in schools.

Honey is the most known and consumed bee product by consumers. Therefore, from the past to the present, the investigation of the factors affecting the supply and consumption of honey has been on the agenda of the researchers. For this purpose, in our survey study, the effects of honey sales carried out via television channels (commercials) on consumers were investigated. According to the survey results, it was determined that 87.91% of consumers had a negative view about honey sales performed via television, 3.54% had a positive opinion, and 8.55% had no opinion on the issue. It was found that 5.83% of consumers bought honey through television commercials, and the education, income, gender and number of individuals in their households have an effect on the tendency to buy honey. Regarding the exposing of companies selling fake or adulterated honey by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, results showed that this situation positively affected 54.53 of consumers in terms of trust in honey positively, affected 13.30% of consumers negatively, and did not affect 13.30% of consumers in any way. As a result, deceptive honey commercials lead to consumer abuse and create an environment of distrust of honey. In order to minimize speculation on honey, it is seen necessary to increase deterrent penalties for businesses that lead to unfair competition.

The deep-rooted changes that have taken place in the media world over recent years have brought about changes in both television itself and in the relationships established with this medium. Consequently, it is important to understand how young people watch television today, in order to design strategies to help them develop the capacities they require to ensure responsible use. With this aim, the present study analyzes the television viewing habits of 553 adolescents (267 boys and 286 girls), aged between 14 and 19, from Ireland, Spain and Mexico. Through the implementation of two questionnaires (CH-TV 0.2 and VAL-TV 0.2), four viewing patterns were detected that can be generalized to all the contexts studied. Two of these patterns clearly distinguish between boys (critical-cultural) and girls (social-conversational), with boys viewing more cultural and information-oriented programs, and girls tending to watch shows with a view to talking about them later with their friends. Two of the variables which best distinguish between the other two patterns identified are the perception of a conflictive climate (conflictive-passive viewing) and the perception of responsible parental mediation (committed-positive viewing). Moreover, preferred television genre was found to be the factor with the greatest discriminatory power in relation to these patterns, while time spent watching television, perceived realism and cultural context were not found to be significant. Los profundos cambios acaecidos en la configuración del contexto mediático en los últimos tiempos, han generado cambios tanto en el medio televisivo como en las relaciones establecidas con él. Es por ello que, resulta necesario conocer cómo consumen la televisión los jóvenes actuales en aras de crear estrategias que ayuden a capacitarlos en la utilización de este medio. Con este fin, en esta investigación se han estudiado las pautas de consumo televisivo de 553 adolescentes (267 chicos y 286 chicas) de Irlanda, España y México, de edades comprendidas entre 14 y 19 años. Mediante la aplicación de dos cuestionarios (CH-TV 0.2 y VAL-TV 0.2), se han podido detectar cuatro pautas de consumo generalizables a todos los contextos estudiados. Dos de estas pautas, diferencian el consumo entre hombres (Crítico-Cultural) y mujeres (Social-Conversacional), siendo ellos los que realizan un consumo más cultural e informativo y ellas, más dirigido a entablar conversación con sus amistades. En lo que a las otras dos pautas se refiere, la percepción de un clima conflictivo (consumo Conflictivo-Pasivo) o la de una mediación responsable (consumo Comprometido-Positivo) son algunas de las variables que marcan las diferencias. Además, se han detectado aquellos factores que presentan mayor poder discriminativo en la configuración de estas pautas, siendo la preferencia mostrada hacia los géneros televisivos el factor más discriminante entre los estudiados. Sin embargo, la permanencia, el realismo percibido y el contexto cultural no han resultado ser determinantes.

The main objective of this research is to analyze the general impact of television advertising on consumer behavior with reference to Sunsilk Shampoo. Many people use advertising at some time in their life. Some may use it privately while others may use in business. And many people respond to advertisements. They enjoy the choices available to them in every sphere of life (Kotler, 1994:24). It is one of the major tools that companies use to persuade target buyers and publics to buy their products or services. In this scenario researcher takes Survey research design as a methodology. In this study media of advertising and impact of television advertising have been evaluated. Data used in this study are only primary in nature. The required data are collected through the questionnaire survey among the people of different age groups, gender, different education group etc. covering the consumer of urban area. According to the findings it can be concluded that majority of the people have television watching habits and out of them women are more curious in television then men which indicated that television advertisement is more popular means of advertisement.

Empirical research on patterns of consumption and appropriation of foreign television and film on Mexican audiences in particular, and Latin American audiences in general, are scarce despite the long tradition of cultural imperialism and supply of foreign content studies. This article discusses the tendency of Latin American culturalists to avoid the study of the ideological readings of foreign audiovisual messages, and reviews the relevance of proposals like «cultural proximity» as a tool for understanding Mexican and Latin American audience’s patterns of television consumption.Los estudios empíricos de recepción sobre los patrones de consumo y apropiación de cine y televisión extranjera por parte de las audiencias mexicanas, en particular, y latinoamericanas, en general, son casi inexistentes a pesar de la larga tradición del imperialismo cultural y los diagnósticos de oferta que han proliferado en los últimos años. Este artículo discute la tendencia de los culturalistas latinoamericanos a no estudiar directamente las lecturas ideológicas de los mensajes audiovisuales extranjeros, y revisa la utilidad de propuestas como la de la «proximidad cultural» en tanto herramientas para entender los patrones de consumo televisivo de las audiencias mexicanas y de América Latina en general.

Studies related to the use of addictive substances usually reflect the point of view of consumers. In this paper we present a qualitative analysis of the answers of non-users related to the impact of television on their attitudes and behaviour. This article is the result of extensive research carried out in the city of Xalapa, Veracruz, Mexico that aimed to describe the relationship between television and the identification and promotion of values that protect the city’s teenagers from drug use. The data obtained provide those in charge of television programming with suggestions from the teenagers to help them stay drug-free. Los estudios relacionados con el uso de sustancias adictivas recaban, habitualmente, la opinión de los consumidores. En este trabajo presentamos un análisis cualitativo de las respuestas de los usuarios respecto de la incidencia de la televisión en su comportamiento y actitudes. Es fruto de una investigación realizada en la ciudad de Xalapa, Veracruz (México) que tuvo la finalidad de describir la relación que guarda la televisión con la identificación y promoción de los valores que protegen a los adolescentes de la localidad del uso de drogas. Los datos obtenidos ofrecen a los encargados de la programación televisiva las sugerencias emanadas de los propios adolescentes, obtenidas de forma científica para ayudarlos a mantenerse al margen de las drogas.

The discussion about the quality of television contents, which has so strongly arisen in recent years, provides both elements for optimism and aspects that foster a sceptical position at the same time. The good intentions of improving programmes and of protecting children and youngsters, which were stated in the self-regulation rules signed in Spain in December of 2004, have come to nothing in the first months. The breaches of the code are frequent. Programme planners do not fully assume their responsibility and they blame external factors (such as the audience, the necessity of income from advertising or the lack of creativity) for the low quality of television products. It is appropriate to introduce the falsehood of such arguments on this point of the debate and to recall that television companies are the owners of the television that we consume. The possibilities of change will depend on the pressure that we, the users, are capable of exerting. El debate acerca de la calidad de los contenidos televisivos, que con tanta fuerza se ha generado en los últimos años, aporta elementos para el optimismo a la vez que aspectos que alimentan una posición escéptica. Los buenos propósitos de mejorar la programación y proteger a la infancia y la juventud, expresados en el Código de Autorregulación firmado en España en diciembre de 2004, se han visto frustrados en los primeros meses. Los incumplimientos del Código son numerosos. Los programadores no acaban de asumir su responsabilidad y echan la culpa a factores externos (audiencia, necesidad de ingresos publicitarios o falta de creatividad) para justificar la baja calidad de los productos televisivos. Resulta oportuno introducir en este punto del debate la falsedad de tales argumentaciones y recordar que los emisores son los dueños de la televisión que consumimos. Las posibilidades de cambio dependerán de la presión que seamos capaces de ejercer los usuarios.

In an era of shrinking Extension resources the question of how to reach large audiences with horticulture information is a pressing concern. Now in its 23rd year, Oklahoma Gardening is an example of spreading Extension information to large audiences through television. Oklahoma Gardening is produced cooperatively by the Oklahoma Cooperative Extension Service, the Dept. of Horticulture and Landscape Architecture, and the Dept. of Ag. Education, Communication, 4-H and Youth Development. The show offers traditional how-to information about gardening, lawn care, and landscaping, as well as up-to-date university research on horticulture. Extension specialists from other disciplines such as entomology, plant pathology, human environmental sciences, and soils frequently contribute to the show fostering cooperation between these programs. Weekly, Oklahoma Gardening reaches more than 175,000 viewers in Oklahoma and surrounding states. County Extension Educators are kept informed of programming and provided with support materials for each weekly show. They are also encouraged to provide input as to content and needs in their particular area of the state. In addition, consumer horticulture programming and show content are closely tied and the show serves as a bulletin board for horticulture related events coordinated by the extension service.

This article arises from some conclusions of the «Wise´s Report » and examines the difficulties to obtain a quality TV at the moment. Data demonstrate that the audiences consume a lot of popular entertainment This fact proves that the way towards a quality TV is very difficult, after years of television channels modelling the audience´s tastes. It is necessary to start from the TV current reality to obtain a formative and cultural TV that includes the experience of «telephiles» generations. If these generations prefer entertainment formats, these formats must be used for an education in values. El «Informe de los sabios» constituye el punto de partida de este artículo en el que se examina la dificultad que entraña conseguir una televisión de calidad en el momento presente. Los datos demuestran que la audiencia es una gran consumidora de entretenimiento popular, lo que dificulta el camino hacia una televisión de calidad tras años de modelación de gustos por parte de los operadores televisivos. Ello plantea la necesidad de partir de la realidad televisiva actual para conseguir unos mínimos de televisión formativa y cultural que tengan en cuenta la experiencia de las generaciones «teléfilas». Si estas generaciones prefieren formatos de entretenimiento, éstos deben aprovecharse para una educación en valores referidos a la representación del otro.

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This research aims to investigate, to describe and to analyze the pupils opinions about the impacts of the TV programs in their daily, individual and collective existences and their implications in the school environment. It tries to observe how they behave themselves before the limits between fiction and reality and in what way they experiment the knowledge and the invention that are present in the television plots. It searches to know how they interact, respect, rebuild and subvert values, gone through by these experiences with the TV. It adopts as theoretical-methodological assumptions elements of the analysis of the discourse, the socio-historical perspective and the cultural studies, for a case study with ethnographical approach. The realization of the research occurred from the showing of television programs, with a focal group, composed by students of the 5th grade of the basic teaching, in a teaching unity of the Public System of Vitória-ES. It is yearned with this work to contribute for the esthetic improvement of our pupil, provoking his/her reflection and critical interventions about the ethical and political values of our society. Key words: Television. Interactions. Consumption. School education
Esta pesquisa tem o propósito de investigar, descrever e analisar as opiniões dos educandos acerca dos impactos dos programas de televisão nas suas existências cotidianas, individuais e coletivas e os seus desdobramentos no ambiente escolar. Procura observar como se comportam diante dos limites entre a ficção e a realidade e de que maneira vivenciam o conhecimento e a invenção presentes nas tramas televisivas. Busca saber de que modo interagem, respeitam, reconstroem e subvertem valores, atravessados por estas experiências com a TV. Adota como pressupostos teórico-metodológicos elementos da análise do discurso, a perspectiva sócio-histórica e os estudos culturais, para um estudo de caso com abordagem etnográfica. A realização da pesquisa deu-se a partir da exibição de programas televisivos, junto a um grupo focal, formado por estudantes da 5ª série do ensino fundamental, em uma unidade de ensino da Rede Pública de Vitória-ES. Almeja-se com este trabalho contribuir para o aprimoramento estético do nosso educando, provocando a sua reflexão e intervenção crítica a respeito dos valores éticos e políticos da nossa sociedade.

Doctor of Philosophy
Curriculum and Instruction Programs
John A. Hortin
This dissertation investigated parental roles in mediating television, music, and the Internet for their children--specifically their fifth graders. Seventy two parents, representing forty seven fifth graders took part in the study. The Television Mediation Scale (Valkenburg, Kremar, Peeters, & Marseille, 1991) provided a framework for the instrument used. Parents were asked a series of questions dealing with television, music, and the Internet. Responses were given on a four point Likert scale. Additionally, participants were asked to estimate the amount of time spent with each medium, discuss the rules in place, the concerns they have with the media, and what principles guide their decisions about how their child uses each type of media. Regarding television, results indicated that parents utilized the restrictive mediation style in which parents set rules for viewing television programs or even prohibit certain shows from being seen. Although parents report using restrictive mediation, more than likely co-viewing is being used most frequently (Weaver & Barbour, 1992). This is plausible when applied to this study considering how close the Mean values are between restrictive mediation (3.36) and co-viewing (3.28). Statistically, no significant findings were reported in regards to music and Internet mediation. However, from a qualitative viewpoint, a wealth of data was gathered regarding the guiding principles and rules that are in place in each home regarding the media. Overall, parents report being knowledgeable of the media that their child uses and are comfortable with the rules in place and the principles that guide their decisions. The results of the study indicate that parents are aware of how their child/children interact with the media but an element of education for parents and even educators in the schools may be missing. Parents must stay abreast of new technologies and continually monitor ways in which their child/children use that technology. If parents believe that they are helpless against the power the media has over their children they are conceding a loss to the media's influence. However, if parents stay involved in their child's life and stay up-to-date on the newest technologies and what children gain from using this technology, then there is no reason to believe that we are powerless against the media.

¿Se matricularía en un curso universitario basado en una serie de televisión? Hace más de 10 años que universidades extranjeras empezaron a innovar con la integración de ficciones audiovisuales en sus currícu- los. Con la expansión del medio televisivo y la llegada de una nueva camada de producciones cabe preguntarnos si es momento de integrar los programas de televisión como objetos de estudio académico y como ejes centrales de una asignatura. Este artículo señala algunas ventajas y posibilidades que abre la televisión en la educación superior, al tiempo que discute las condiciones necesarias para su apropiación enese contexto.

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Architecture and Planning, Program in Media Arts and Sciences, 2008.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 93-95).
This thesis explores how the merging of ubiquitous consumer electronics and the sociable web improve the user experience of these devices, increase the functionality of both, and help distribute content in a more sociable way. The project will consist of one well fleshed out principal application: a digital video recorder (manufactured by Motorola, running OCAP) connected to the Facebook social network. By connecting these two technologies, the user can now automatically watch the shows her friends like and are willing to report to the social network; in return, the user transmits her viewing data back to the social network.
Mariana Cristina Baca Del Rosario.
S.M.

This thesis presents a new typology of television advertising that re-orientates existing research into advertising effectiveness and more accurately reflects new directions in communication theory. The typology provides a consumer-centric approach to analysing television advertisements and a different conceptualisation of the advertising response process. Conventional research into advertising effectiveness has examined almost every aspect of the advertising mix to identify what makes an advertisement effective. The research is based on a number of assumptions. For example, mass communication is seen as a linear process with the advertiser at one end of a communication continuum and the consumer at the other. The function of advertising, in this reception paradigm, is to inform and then to influence the consumer and measures of its success include accuracy of recall and recognition. This process of persuasion comprises a number of hierarchical steps that should lead to purchase or to a positive propensity to purchase. The power of persuasion is related to the level of involvement between the advertised product and the potential customer and with the appropriateness of the advertised message and its execution. For example, elements such as music, humour and the use of celebrities have been studied to assess their persuasive powers and to understand their communication effects. This thesis takes a different approach to understanding how advertising works and makes a number of different assumptions. According to this thesis, before it is possible to study the effects of advertising, it is necessary to find out how people respond to it. This introduces the three key concepts that underpin this thesis. These are reader-response theory, personal construct theory and uses and gratifications theory. Reader-response theory suggests that the meaning and significance of any form of communication is co-created at the point of engagement. The meaning of a television advertisement, for example, is located, not in the advertisement itself, as in conventional research, but in the interaction between the advertisement and the viewer. The meanings that result in this process of negotiation are as much a reflection of personal, social and cultural experience as they are a response to particular executional and message strategies. To understand how consumers make sense of these communication texts it is necessary to study them at the point of reception. The second key concept, personal construct theory, proposes that the way individuals make sense of their experiences and understand the world is determined by the personal constructs that they hold. Identifying these constructs will enable researchers to understand the meanings that consumers attach to communication messages and to focus more fundamentally on the psychological basis of the response process than on its individual components. Studying advertising effectiveness in the context of personal construct theory places the consumer at the centre of the response process and focuses attention on how meaning is negotiated. This has a number of important implications for practioners both in relation to the construction of television advertisements and in understanding consumers� responses to them. For example, practioners need to recognise the importance of producing television advertisements that address their audience as readers of media texts rather than merely as consumers of media products. This re-conceptualising of the audience is clearly articulated in uses and gratifications theory, the third key concept in this study. Uses and gratifications theory, suggests that it is as important to understand what consumers do with advertising as it is to study what advertising does to consumers. This is in contrast to the emphasis on persuasion strategies in conventional advertising research. Reader-response theory, personal construct theory and uses and gratifications theory suggest a more dynamic relationship between an advertisement and a consumer than is recognised by conventional research. These theories are encapsulated in a new typology of television advertising presented in this thesis.

Several researches show that the advertisements play an important role on customers choosing goods or services and especially are more effective on children as consumer. Advertising is to offer them about new products. This study‟s‟ approach is examine if the TV advertisements affects consumers. This study will be a qualitative approach will be done with 20 respondents, and the respondents are in the ages 12-21 and 45-55.

Date: May 28, 2009

Program: MIMA – International Marketing

Course name: Master Thesis (EFO705)

Title: Consumer responses to product placements in Thai television sitcoms

Authors: Chalinee Ketrattanakul           ckl08001@student.mdh.se

Pimmanee Pongpatranon        ppn08004@student.mdh.se

Tutor: Tobias Eltebrandt

Problem: How Thai consumers identify the advertising strategy of product placements in Thai sitcoms?

Purpose: To examine the responses of Thai customers toward product placements in Thai sitcoms and measure how product placements in Thai sitcoms have influential effects on Thai consumers’ attitudes.

Method: The study is mainly based on quantitative research using experiment and survey methods. Relevant secondary data are also collected. The major framework used in the study is the Multicomponent Model of Attitude.

Conclusion: Product placements in Thai sitcoms have influential effects on the attitudes of Thai consumers depending on the category used in practice and execution style. Implicit product placement seems to be the most suitable and acceptable technique to use in Thai sitcoms since it creates positive effects on Thai consumers’ attitude toward brands and their purchase intention.

Key words: Product placement, television sitcom, attitude, cognition, affect, behavior

 

Adverts are used to make services and products known to its likely users or consumers in a very easy and dynamic way. These have become one major medium which business, organization or establishment could function effectively in a competitive environment. Manufacturers and organizations use adverts as a means of reaching their intending customers, as regards the goods and services they make available. Adverts therefore serve as agents between organizations and customers. In this paper, a mobile agent based model that would help its users to place timely and effective adverts is described. This is done to aid advert placement in television stations and it is implemented using Nigerian Television stations as case study. Agent moves from one host to another to make enquiry and place adverts. This model is designed with the assumption that each of the host grants access to the mobile agents.

The rise of the accountability movement in education has resulted in the proliferation of school report cards, school ratings and rankings, and other kinds of performance reporting for public consumption and policy use. To understand the strengths and limitations of school rating systems and the role they play in shaping public perceptions and school improvement practices, this paper situates rating systems within the broader field of comparative organizational assessments and neo-institutional theory; describes school rankings and rating systems in use by states and consumer-oriented enterprises; and details four aspects of school ratings (measurement, transformation, integration, and presentation) that affect their use and interpretation.

Economic reasons are among the basic explanatory factors of migration, whether international or internally within a country. In turn, migratory movements have effects on the economy in terms of economic growth in general, but also in the different markets (work, housing, consumer goods, etc.) and public services (education, health, social services, etc.). The purpose of this document is to offer an overview of these interactions between migration and the economy in the case of the Canary Islands. To do this, certain conceptual clarifications will be made initially involving the mutual determination of both processes, before later providing specifics with evidence on the Canarian case for the main issues considered: the economic reasons for migration, and its impact on economic growth, the labour market and the living conditions of the immigrant population. The final section alludes to the importance of the institutional framework that regulates these relations between migration and the economy, which are far from being interpretable as a mechanical relationship and isolated from the political sphere.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.