Auswahl der wissenschaftlichen Literatur zum Thema „Temporary market impact“

The United States currently provides Temporary Protected Status (TPS) to more than 300,000 immigrants. TPS is typically granted if dangerous conditions prevail in migrants' home countries. Individuals with TPS are allowed to stay and work in the United States temporarily. Little is known about how TPS affects beneficiaries, most of whom are unauthorized prior to receiving TPS. Our results suggest that TPS eligibility leads to higher employment rates among women and higher earnings among men. The results have implications for recent programs that allow millions of unauthorized immigrants to receive temporary permission to remain and work in the United States.

We model an informed agent with information about the future value of an asset trying to maximize profits when the agent’s trades are subjected to a transaction cost as well as a market maker tasked with setting fair transaction prices. In a single auction model, equilibrium is characterized by the unique root of a particular polynomial. Analysis of this polynomial with small levels of risk-aversion and transaction costs reveal a dimensionless parameter which captures several orders of asymptotic accuracy of the equilibrium behavior. In a continuous time analogue of the single auction model, incorporation of a transaction costs allows the informed agent’s optimal trading strategy to be obtained in feedback form. Linear equilibrium is characterized by the unique solution to a system of two ordinary differential equations, of which one is forward in time and one is backward. When transaction costs are in effect, the price set by the market maker in equilibrium is not fully revealing of the informed agent’s private signal, leaving an information gap at the end of the trading interval. When considering vanishing transaction costs, the equilibrium trading strategy and pricing rules converge to their frictionless counterparts.

We examine the labor market consequences of recent global supply chain disruptions induced by COVID-19. Specifically, we consider a temporary increase in international trade costs similar to the one observed during the pandemic and analyze its effects on labor market outcomes using a quantitative trade model with downward nominal wage rigidities. Even omitting any health related impacts of the pandemic, the increase in trade costs leads to a temporary but prolonged decline in U.S. labor force participation. However, there is a temporary increase in manufacturing employment as the United States is a net importer of manufactured goods, which become costlier to obtain from abroad. By contrast, service and agricultural employment experience temporary declines. Nominal frictions lead to temporary unemployment when the shock dissipates, but this depends on the degree of monetary accommodation. Overall, the shock results in a 0.14% welfare loss for the United States. The impact on labor force participation and welfare across countries varies depending on the initial degree of openness and sectoral deficits.

A problem of an optimal liquidation is investigated by using the Almgren-Chriss market impact model on the background that the n agents liquidate assets completely. The impact of market is divided into three components: unaffected price process, permanent impact, and temporary impact. The key element is that the variable temporary market impact is analyzed. When the temporary market impact is decreasing linearly, the optimal problem is described by a Nash equilibrium in finite time horizon. The stochastic component of the price process is eliminated from the mean-variance. Mathematically, the Nash equilibrium is considered as the second-order linear differential equation with variable coefficients. We prove the existence and uniqueness of solutions for the differential equation with two boundaries and find the closed-form solutions in special situations. The numerical examples and properties of the solution are given. The corresponding finance phenomenon is interpreted.

PurposeThe authors explicitly evaluate the dynamic impact of five most concerned supply chain disruption scenarios, including: (1) a short-term shortage and price jump of corn supply in hog farms; (2) a shortage of market hogs to packing facilities; (3) disruption in breeding stock adjustments; (4) disruption in pork import; and (5) a combination of scenario (1)–(4).Design/methodology/approachThe agricultural supply chain experienced tremendous disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic. To evaluate the impact of disruptions, the authors employ a system dynamics model of hog market to simulate and project the impact of COVID-19 on China hog production and pork consumption. In the model the authors explicitly characterize the cyclical pattern of hog market. The hog cycle model is calibrated using market data from 2018–2019 to represent the market situation during an ongoing African swine fever.FindingsThe authors find that the impacts of supply chain disruption are generally short-lived. Market hog transportation disruption has immediate impact on price and consumption. But the impact is smoothed out in six months. Delay in import shipment temporarily reduces consumption and raises hog price. A temporary increase of corn price or delay in breeding stock acquisition does not produce significant impact on national hog market as a whole, despite mass media coverage on certain severely affected regions.Originality/valueThis is the first evaluation of short-term supply chain disruption on China hog market from COVID-19. The authors employ a system dynamics model of hog markets with an international trade component. The model allows for monthly time step analysis and projection of the COVID-19 impact over a five-year period. The results and discussion have far-reaching implications for agricultural markets around the world.

The number of suicides has increased in the last decades in several developed countries. For instance, Spain has experienced a gradual but steady increase in suicides since the 80’s and it is currently the leading external cause of death in the country. At the same time, the dualisation of the labor market, with a strong and persistent incidence of temporary contracts, has increased the instability of employment conditions. Both developments have a stronger incidence for individuals with lower levels of education. Therefore, in this paper we use rich administrative data in order to estimate the impact of the wide spread use of temporary contracts on suicides. In order to do that we exploit a reform that liberalised the use of fix-term contracts in Spain in 1984. Our results show strong long-term effects of the reform, which increased the suicide mortality rate of affected cohorts (those entering the labor market just after the liberalisation) by at least 25.3%. We believe that this result has important policy implications and should be taken into account in the design of the national suicide prevention plans.

We consider intraday hedging of an option position, for a large trader who experiences temporary and permanent market impact. We formulate the general model including overnight risk, and solve explicitly in two cases which we believe are representative. The first case is an option with approximately constant gamma: the optimal hedge trades smoothly towards the classical Black–Scholes delta, with trading intensity proportional to instantaneous mishedge and inversely proportional to illiquidity. The second case is an arbitrary non-linear option structure but with no permanent impact: the optimal hedge trades toward a value offset from the Black–Scholes delta. We estimate the effects produced on the public markets if a large collection of traders all hedge similar positions. We construct a stable hedge strategy with discrete time steps.

The negative impact of unemployment on individuals and its spillover to spouses is widely documented. However, we have a gap in our knowledge when it comes to the similar consequences of temporary employment. This is problematic, because although temporary jobs are often considered better alternatives to unemployment for endowing individuals with income and opportunities to connect to employers, they are also associated with stressors such as high levels of job insecurity and poor quality work, the effects of which might spill over to spouses. Using matched data from the British Household Panel Study, I show that temporary work is at least as detrimental as unemployment for spouses’ subjective well-being, although there are differences. When experienced by husbands, temporary work, like unemployment, has a negative effect on wives’ psychological well-being and life satisfaction. Yet, as opposed to unemployment, wives’ temporary employment also spills over and negatively affects husbands’ psychological well-being. Furthermore, coupled individuals’ well-being is most affected when men are either unemployed or temporarily employed and their wives have permanent jobs, suggesting that the effect is related to gender deviation. The effects are robust after controlling for fixed individual characteristics that can influence both employment status and well-being outcomes.

We extend the self-exciting model by assuming that the temporary market impact is nonlinear and the coefficient of the temporary market impact is an exponential function. Through optimal control method, the optimal strategy satisfies the second-order nonlinear ordinary differential equation. The specific form of the optimal strategy is given, and the decreasing property of the optimal strategy is proved. A numerical example is given to illustrate the financial implications of the model parameter changes. We find that the optimal strategy of a risk-neutral investor changes with time and investment environment.

In recent years there has been a significant shortage of workers in Iceland. The traditional method of arranging temporary work, through direct contracts between employees and employers, has not sufficed. Moreover, there is a skills mismatch that compounds the shortage of workers as the sectors that have grown most rapidly in recent years mainly employ unskilled labor. This study examined the historical background of temporary work in Iceland, recent developments and in particular the growing importance of temporary staffing agencies, as well as the economic rationale for temporary staffing agencies, and the segmented labor market in Iceland. The study employs expert opinion approach, together with content and statistical analysis. Experts placed strongest emphasis on temporary workforce dependency on economic conditions, closely followed by sector triggered temporary workforce fluctuation. Socio-legal infrastructure for temporary workforce had the third strongest emphasis with other themes being less emphasized. These dramatic changes to the Icelandic labor market have undoubtedly had a significant impact on Icelandic society but there is surprisingly little research available into this. The efforts of unions and the Federation of Employees have helped to push through legislation on temporary staffing agencies and the rights of foreign workers, however, as long as there is economic rationale for their operation and a legal and regulatory framework that accommodates them the agencies can be expected to continue bringing temporary staff to Iceland. The impact on the labor market and society thus seems likely to be permanent.

The impact of labor market insecurity on immigrants’ mental health is understudied. This current study investigated whether labor market insecurity, as measured by different employment arrangements, has detrimental impact on immigrants’ depression, and if so, how it compares to the role of unemployment. Furthermore, this study investigated whether labor market insecurity had more detrimental impact on immigrants than non-immigrants. To do so, data from seventh wave of European Social Survey (2014/2015) was divided into three separate immigrant groups; first-generation immigrants, second-generation immigrants and non-immigrants. The results shows that labor market insecurity among immigrants had detrimental impact on mental health. The effects were not restricted to the first- generation immigrants’ mental health, they could also be observed in the second-generation immigrants and among non-immigrants. The results presented in this thesis show that not only unemployment, but also insecure employment arrangement have negative impact on mental health, both among immigrants and non-immigrants.

Over decades, job satisfaction has generated active empirical research. Similarly, organizational commitment, another attitudinal variable in the work domain, strongly related to, but distinctly different from job satisfaction, received comparatively equal research scrutiny. However, research on the impact of labour broking on employees’ job satisfaction and organizational commitment is nonexistent in Namibia. Using a quantitative approach, within a positivist paradigm, the purpose of this thesis was to examine the impact of labour broking on employees’ job satisfaction and organizational commitment as well as to determine the dynamics that mediate such experiences. These experiences were examined through a 5-dimensional, 72-item Job Descriptive Index and a 3-dimensional, 12-item Organizational Commitment Questionnaire over a sample size of 108 temporary and permanent employees, drawn through random probability sampling in a number of Namibian organizations that make use of labour hire services. These experiences were further amplified by face-to-face interviews over a sub sample of 20 employees. Data analysis was carried out using the chi-square, correlation, t-tests and multiple regression techniques of the STATISTICA software. Drawing on the principles of the multi dimensional theory of organizational commitment, the Cornell dispositional theory of job satisfaction and the temporary employee stigmatization model, results revealed that variables of employment status, tenure, inadequate income, inappropriate supervision and fear of job losses ahead of a newly proposed piece of legislat st labour hire ractices significantly influenced job satisfaction and organizational commitment of employees. Estimates indicate that for a mere change in tenure, job satisfaction levels will significantly rise by 0.26 units, whereas organizational commitment will augment by 0.03 units. However, for every N$ fall in employees’ pay, we can expect job satisfaction levels to decrease by 26%, but with significant effects. The study recommends that organizations must adopt policies that grant permanent tenure to all their employees, position them in respected and challenging jobs in which they will grow skills and ensure that all employees are remunerated with pay that signals their contribution to the organizations. In doing so, the negative effects of labour broking will disappear and employees will be satisfied with their jobs and Tommitted to their organizations.

Diese Dissertation besteht aus vier Aufsätzen, die einen Beitrag zur Literatur über die empirische Analyse von lokalen Arbeitsmärkten leisten. Der erste Aufsatz nutzt den Abzug eines Großteils der US-Stationierungsstreitkräfte in Deutschland seit 1990 als ein natürliches Experiment, das die Identifikation von kausalen Effekten von Nachfrageschocks in lokalen Arbeitsmärkten ermöglicht. Als Datengrundlage dient ein neu aufbereiteter Datensatz zu den regionalen Veränderungen der Personalstärke der U.S. Stützpunkte. Die empirischen Ergebnisse belegen, dass der Abzug zu einem signifikanten Rückgang der Beschäftigung in der lokalen Privatwirtschaft und einem nachfolgenden Anstieg in der lokalen Arbeitslosenrate führte. Im Gegensatz dazu weisen die Ergebnisse keine Evidenz für signifikante Anpassungen in den lokalen Löhnen oder Wanderungssalden auf. Der zweite Aufsatz vertieft die Frage der lokalen Lohnrigiditäten angesichts des Nachfrageschocks. Der Einfluss von zwei Institutionen wird als mögliche Quelle von heterogenen Lohnanpassungen in lokalen Arbeitsmärkten identifiziert. Die empirischen Ergebnisse zeigen, dass der Einfluss der beiden Institutionen isoliert mit keinen heterogenen Lohnanpassungen verbunden ist, aber das Zusammenwirken beider Dimensionen verbunden ist mit differenziellen Lohnreduktionen. Der dritte Aufsatz erweitert die Analyse der Folgen des amerikanischen Truppenabzugs um die Frage nach der Entwicklung der lokalen Kriminalitätsrate. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass der Truppenabzug mit einem Rückgang der Kriminalität insbesondere von Drogen- und Sexualstraftaten verbunden ist. Der vierte Aufsatz untersucht die langfristige Entwicklung der Zeitarbeit in den regionalen Arbeitsmärkten in Deutschland seit 1979. Dabei zeigt sich, dass die anfängliche Verteilung der Beschäftigungsanteile für manuelle Nicht-Routine- und Routine-Tätigkeiten eine starke Vorhersagekraft für das unterschiedliche regionale Beschäftigungswachstum von Zeitarbeit in Deutschland besitzt.
This thesis consists of four essays that contribute to the empirical analysis of local labor markets. The first essay exploits the massive withdrawal of U.S. Armed Forces in the aftermath of the German Reunification as a natural experiment that enables the identification of the causal impact of local labor demand shocks. It introduces a novel dataset that details the evolution of the U.S. manpower levels at the disaggregated regional level and thereby enables the measurement how U.S. base closures affected the demand for local non-tradable goods and services. The results from the empirical analyses suggest that the drop in local labor demand caused a significant loss of private sector employment and generated a subsequent rise in local unemployment rates. In contrast, wages and migration patterns do not exhibit any significant responses. The second essay further explores the rigidity of wages in local labor markets in response to the U.S. base closures. The presence of two types of institutions (i.e. works councils and the German Trade and Crafts Code) and their interplay are characterized as potential sources of wage heterogeneities. While in isolation these two institutions do not seem to alter the pattern of insignificant wage adjustments, their interaction is found to introduce a channel for small downward wage adjustments. The third essay is concerned with the change in local crime rates in response to the U.S. presence and withdrawal. The empirical findings suggest that the drawdown of the U.S. military presence can be related to large and significant drops in the local rate of drug and sex offenses. The fourth essay provides an empirical analysis of the diverging patterns of employment in temporary help services across labor markets in Germany over the last 30 years. The differential growth pattern both at the level of occupations and across regional labor markets are found to be related to the initial intensity of routine and non-routine manual tasks.

Dans cette thèse, nous étudions plusieurs problèmes de mathématiques financières liés à la présence d’imperfections sur les marchés. Notre approche principale pour leur résolution est l’utilisation d’un cadre asymptotique pertinent dans lequel nous parvenons à obtenir des solutions approchées explicites pour les problèmes de contrôle associés. Dans la première partie de cette thèse, nous nous intéressons à l’évaluation et la couverture des options européennes. Nous considérons tout d’abord la problématique de l’optimisation des dates de rebalancement d’une couverture à temps discret en présence d’une tendance dans la dynamique du sous-jacent. Nous montrons que dans cette situation, il est possible de générer un rendement positif tout en couvrant l’option et nous décrivons une stratégie de rebalancement asymptotiquement optimale pour un critère de type moyenne-variance. Ensuite, nous proposons un cadre asymptotique pour la gestion des options européennes en présence de coûts de transaction proportionnels. En s’inspirant des travaux de Leland, nous développons une méthode alternative de construction de portefeuilles de réplication permettant de minimiser les erreurs de couverture. La seconde partie de ce manuscrit est dédiée à la question du suivi d’une cible stochastique. L’objectif de l’agent est de rester proche de cette cible tout en minimisant le coût de suivi. Dans une asymptotique de coûts petits, nous démontrons l’existence d’une borne inférieure pour la fonction valeur associée à ce problème d’optimisation. Cette borne est interprétée en terme du contrôle ergodique du mouvement brownien. Nous fournissons également de nombreux exemples pour lesquels la borne inférieure est explicite et atteinte par une stratégie que nous décrivons. Dans la dernière partie de cette thèse, nous considérons le problème de consommation et investissement en présence de taxes sur le rendement des capitaux. Nous obtenons tout d’abord un développement asymptotique de la fonction valeur associée que nous interprétons de manière probabiliste. Puis, dans le cas d’un marché avec changements de régime et pour un investisseur dont l’utilité est du type Epstein-Zin, nous résolvons explicitement le problème en décrivant une stratégie de consommation-investissement optimale. Enfin, nous étudions l’impact joint de coûts de transaction et de taxes sur le rendement des capitaux. Nous établissons dans ce cadre un système d’équations avec termes correcteurs permettant d’unifier les résultats de [ST13] et[CD13]
In this thesis, we study several mathematical finance problems related to the presence of market imperfections. Our main approach for solving them is to establish a relevant asymptotic framework in which explicit approximate solutions can be obtained for the associated control problems. In the first part of this thesis, we are interested in the pricing and hedging of European options. We first consider the question of determining the optimal rebalancing dates for a replicating portfolio in the presence of a drift in the underlying dynamics. We show that in this situation, it is possible to generate positive returns while hedging the option and describe a rebalancing strategy which is asymptotically optimal for a mean-variance type criterion. Then we propose an asymptotic framework for options risk management under proportional transaction costs. Inspired by Leland’s approach, we develop an alternative way to build hedging portfolios enabling us to minimize hedging errors. The second part of this manuscript is devoted to the issue of tracking a stochastic target. The agent aims at staying close to the target while minimizing tracking efforts. In a small costs asymptotics, we establish a lower bound for the value function associated to this optimization problem. This bound is interpreted in term of ergodic control of Brownian motion. We also provide numerous examples for which the lower bound is explicit and attained by a strategy that we describe. In the last part of this thesis, we focus on the problem of consumption-investment with capital gains taxes. We first obtain an asymptotic expansion for the associated value function that we interpret in a probabilistic way. Then, in the case of a market with regime-switching and for an investor with recursive utility of Epstein-Zin type, we solve the problem explicitly by providing a closed-form consumption-investment strategy. Finally, we study the joint impact of transaction costs and capital gains taxes. We provide a system of corrector equations which enables us to unify the results in [ST13] and [CD13]

Esta tese propõe-se a investigar a relação entre o trabalho infanto-juvenil e o trabalho adulto, sob o ponto de vista das famílias e do mercado, através de dois ensaios. No primeiro ensaio, investiga-se o impacto do programa Bolsa Escola sobre o trabalho de crianças e adultos. Programas de transferência condicional de renda, como o Bolsa Escola, tornaram-se bastante utilizados em países pobres e em desenvolvimento como uma forma de aliviar a pobreza presente e incentivar investimentos em capital humano que podem levar as famílias (e indivíduos) a melhores condições de vida no longo prazo. No entanto, esses programas podem influenciar a decisão de trabalhar entre os membros das famílias beneficiárias. A partir dos dados da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostras de Domicílios – PNAD 2003, conclui-se que o programa Bolsa Escola reduz a probabilidade de trabalho das crianças mas, condicional à decisão de trabalhar, a jornada de trabalho não é alterada. Por outro lado, a decisão de trabalho de pais e mães não é afetada pela participação no programa, mas a jornada semanal é alterada nas famílias que participam do Bolsa Escola. O objetivo do segundo ensaio é investigar a relação entre o emprego de jovens e adultos no Brasil sob o ponto de vista do mercado de trabalho. Utilizam-se dados da Pesquisa Mensal de Emprego – PME de janeiro de 1991 a dezembro de 1999 e o ferramental econométrico de séries temporais. Os resultados obtidos mostram que o emprego de jovens está positivamente relacionado com o emprego de homens e mulheres adultos.
This dissertation presents two papers in which we investigate the relationship between child/youth and adult labor from the family and from the labor market point of view. In the first paper, we aim to measure the impact of Brazilian conditional cash transfer program – Bolsa Escola – on children's and parents' labor status using the econometric framework of policy evaluation. Conditional Cash Transfer - CCT programs have become widespread in developing and underdeveloped countries as a way to alleviate current poverty and provide investments in human capital that could lead families to better life conditions in the long-term. However, these programs may also have impacts on time use decisions within beneficiary families, particularly with respect to time spent working. The usual probit and Heckman econometric models show that the Bolsa Escola program reduces the probability of work for children but not their time spent in the labor market and that the program is more efficient for girls than for boys. On the other hand, parents' labor participation is not affected but their working hours change due to the program. The aim of the second paper is to investigate the relationship between youth and adults in Brazilian labor force from the labor market perspective. We compare data on youth (15-17 years) employment from January 1991 to December 1999 with data on employment of adult (18-64) males and adult females in six metropolitan regions. We estimate multivariate autoregressive models to perform impulse-response and forecast-error variance decomposition analysis. Our findings suggest that adult and youth employment are positively related, although male adult employment explains a smaller proportion of youth employment variance than female employment.

This thesis draws on David Harvey’s concept of “accumulation by dispossession” and an international political economy (IPE) approach centred on the institutional arrangements and power structures that privilege certain actors and values, in order to critique current capitalist practices of primitive accumulation by the global corporate extractive industry. The thesis examines how accumulation by dispossession by the global extractive industry is facilitated by the “free entry” or “free mining” principle. It does so by focusing on Canada as a leader in the global extractive industry and the spread of this country’s mining laws to other countries – in other words, the transnationalisation of norms in the global extractive industry – so as to maintain a consistent and familiar operating environment for Canadian extractive companies. The transnationalisation of norms is further promoted by key international institutions such as the World Bank, which is also the world’s largest development lender and also plays a key role in shaping the regulations that govern natural resource extraction. The thesis briefly investigates some Canadian examples of resource extraction projects, in order to demonstrate the weaknesses of Canadian mining laws, particularly the lack of protection of landowners’ rights under the free entry system and the subsequent need for “free, prior and informed consent” (FPIC). The thesis also considers some of the challenges to the adoption and implementation of the right to FPIC. These challenges include embedded institutional structures like the free entry mining system, international political economy (IPE) as shaped by international institutions and powerful corporations, as well as concerns regarding ‘local’ power structures or the legitimacy of representatives of communities affected by extractive projects. The thesis concludes that in order for Canada to be truly recognized as a leader in the global extractive industry, it must establish legal norms domestically to ensure that Canadian mining companies and residents can be held accountable when there is evidence of environmental and/or human rights violations associated with the activities of Canadian mining companies abroad. The thesis also concludes that Canada needs to address underlying structural issues such as the free entry mining system and implement FPIC, in order to curb “accumulation by dispossession” by the extractive industry, both domestically and abroad.

In this paper, we use monthly administrative data covering the universe of individuals registered as unemployed in 278 Portuguese municipalities to study the impact of Covid-19between March and August 2020. Using event study difference-in-differences, we document a large causal impact on unemployment, with year-on-year growth rate increases of39 and 38 percentage points in June and July, respectively. New job placements dropped significantly, especially in April. We also employ triple difference-in-differences to show that younger and middle educated individuals fell more into unemployment, while there is no evidence of differences across genders. Portugal has a dual labor market, with a larges hare of workers employed on temporary contracts. Relying on this specific characteristic, we show that the heterogeneous effects were accentuated in municipalities with a higher share of temporary workers.

This dissertation aims to study the impact of currency crises on stock markets and to conclude on the existence of cointegration relationships through the estimation of cointegrating equations using VECM models. Taking into account the currency crises of the Russian Ruble, Chinese Yuan, British Pound and the Turkish Lira, different samples were collected for each currency and subsequently divided in three time periods: the period before, during and after the currency depreciation. The dissertation analyses the connection between the daily results of the exchange rates and the stock indexes chosen from each country where the crisis occurred and from each continent (American, European and Asian indexes) in order to understand whether there is cointegration between the stock markets and the currencies studied. The results suggest the existence of interdependence between currency crises and stock markets, concluding that currency crises strengthened and reinforced the markets comovements. There is a greater proximity of Russia to European markets, the growth of the American and British markets lead to a strengthening of the Chinese Yuan against the Dollar and the Dollar against the Pound, respectively, Brexit had a greater impact on European markets than on British, most currencies had a slow recovery, currency crises had an impact on global markets and finally the FTSE 100 and Shanghai Composite Index after the currency crisis showed better results than in the period before the crisis, coming out stronger.
Esta dissertação tem como objetivo estudar o impacto das crises cambiais nas bolsas de valores e concluir sobre a existência de relações de cointegração ao estimar as equações de cointegração usando modelos VECM. Tendo em conta as crises cambiais do Rublo Russo, Yuan Chinês, Libra Britânica e Lira Turca, foram recolhidas amostras para cada moeda e subsequentemente divididas em três períodos temporais: período antes, durante e depois da depreciação da moeda. A dissertação analisa a conexão entre os resultados diários das moedas e índices de ações escolhidos de cada país onde a crise ocorreu e de cada continente (índices americanos, europeus e asiáticos) de forma a compreender se existe cointegração entre os mercados de ações e as moedas estudadas. Os resultados sugerem a existência de interdependência entre as crises cambiais e os mercados de ações, concluindo que as crises cambiais fortaleceram e reforçaram os comovimentos dos mercados. Existe maior proximidade da Rússia aos mercados europeus, o crescimento do mercado americano e britânico levam ao refortalecimento do Yuan Chinês em relação ao Dólar e do Dólar em relação à Libra, respetivamente, o Brexit teve maior impacto no mercado europeu que no britânico, a maioria das moedas tiveram uma recuperação lenta, as crise cambiais tiveram impacto nos mercados globais e finalmente o FTSE100 e Shanghai Composite Index depois da crise cambial apresentaram melhores resultados do que no período antes da crise, saindo refortalecidos.

Nos últimos anos tem-se assistido a uma mudança, a nível global, da conjuntura económica e industrial. Há cada vez mais, uma maior preocupação pelos impactos que o processo de globalização e industrialização têm causado quer em termos climáticos quer em termos ambientais. Nesse sentido, assiste-se a um processo de tentativa de reversão destes efeitos, o processo de descarbonização. Este caracteriza-se essencialmente pela substituição de fontes de energia poluentes por fontes de energia renováveis. Contudo, e conforme será testado neste estudo, a aposta neste tipo de energias nem sempre promove a estrutura de um mercado liberalizado, sobretudo quando falamos do mercado da eletricidade. Ora, sendo esta forma de mercado em muito semelhante a um mercado de concorrência, a aposta no sector de energias renováveis poderá trazer efeitos indesejáveis para o mercado. Assim, através da metodologia econométrica e do uso de Dados em Séries Temporais, será analisada a evolução dos preços da eletricidade no mercado ibérico após o processo de liberalização e de constituição do MIBEL e de que forma a geração de energia elétrica, através de fontes de energia renovável, impacta no preço da eletricidade. Serão ainda utilizadas variáveis cujo comportamento retrata as alterações do mercado após o processo de liberalização, medindo também o seu impacto sobre o preço da eletricidade. Este estudo conclui que, de facto, se verifica o paradoxo entre os ideais de um mercado liberalizado e a conjuntura ambiental que leva ao recurso por fontes menos poluentes na geração de eletricidade.
The global economic and industrial environment has been changing, in recent years. There is a growing focus on the processes of globalization and industrialization and the environmental and climate concerns that they impact. In order to prevent and reverse those impacts, the economies are now adopting a new process, the decarbonization, which is characterized by the replacement of polluting energy sources by renewable energy sources. However, as it will be tested in this study, this type of strategy does not always promote the structure of a liberalized market, especially when considering the electricity market. Since this market is very similar to a competitive one, the renewable energies strategy could bring undesirable effects to this type of market. By using the econometric methodology with Time Series Data, this study will analyze the electricity prices behavior in Portugal and Spain after the liberalization and the MIBEL process. This methodology will also be used to study how renewable energy sources used for electricity generation affect electricity prices. Variables that represent the behavior of the market after the liberalization process will also be will be included in the model to measure their impact on the electricity prices. This study concludes that there is, in fact, a paradox between the ideals of a liberalized market and the environmental scenario that leads to the use of less polluting sources in the electricity generation.

This book is a way to learn from the Persian Gulf – to use its cities, cultures, and politics to broaden our understanding of how wealth and power operate in the world today. To learn from cities of the Arabian Peninsula -- places like Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha -- does not mean celebrating them or ridiculing them either. It means looking closely at how they operate and their prospects for future impacts inside and outside the region. Here, a group of scholars from across the disciplines and much of the world, strives to emplace the new developments in wider histories of trade, of technology, and of design. They trace where the money, ideas and projects come from and where they end up going. They show how Gulf elites import planning and design solutions, along with brands and prestige cultural institutions, from the West – and also what they then send out. The Gulf set-ups – in real estate, finance, and governance -- function as “test beds” for new state-market arrangements. Also involved is the massive import of temporary labor and, almost incidentally, severe ecological deficit. Gulf Cities display extreme manifestations of urbanization trends that, however unanticipated in the grand traditions of urban scholarship, now impact the world.

The chapter presents a small open-economy model to study the first-round effects of international food-price shocks in developing countries. First-round shocks are defined as changes in headline inflation that, holding core inflation constant, help implement relative price adjustments. The model features three goods (food, a generic traded good, and a non-traded good), varying degrees of tradability of the food basket, and alternative international asset market structures. First-round effects depend crucially on the asset market structure. Under complete markets, inter-temporal substitution prevails, making the inflationary impact of international food price shocks proportional to the food share in consumption, which in developing countries is typically large. Under financial autarky, the income channel is dominant, and first-round effects are instead proportional to the country’s food trade balance, which is typically small. The results cast some doubt on the view that international food price shocks inherently have large inflationary effects in developing countries.

This chapter examines the spatial and temporal dynamics shaping the development of financial markets and activities to account for the rise of Singapore as an international financial centre (IFC). The analysis draws upon the preceding 1997 Asian financial crisis as industry changes and policy response back then set the stage for subsequent industry shifts, which have shaped the responses and impacts of firms, regulators, and consumers following the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Key industry shifts include banking liberalization and changing forms of financial consumption in Singapore. The growing prominence of financial markets and emerging sectors, such as Islamic banking and finance (IBF) and offshore renminbi (RMB), and fintech are also examined in terms of their importance for Singapore’s future role as an IFC.

This chapter commences with the Panic of 1873 and its profound impact on operatic production in 1870s America. The failure of Italian- and German-language troupes facilitated the triumph of grand opera in the vernacular—especially the company of Louise Kellogg, which enjoyed extraordinary success during the worst years of the Long Deprecession. Comic opera (including operetta, light opera, and opera bouffe) was important during the period, as were the activities of several pivotal performer/managers (Emily Soldene, Sallie Holman, Alice Oates). Italian- and German-language activity during the late 1870s–1880s and the generally unsettled operatic times of the mid-1880s are covered. During this period German-language opera and its associated principle of cultural uplift first challenged and ultimately replaced Italian-language opera (temporarily) in the American foreign-language market. The chapter ends with the explosion of vernacular-opera activity in the 1880s and the enthusiasm of Americans for all types of opera performed in English.

In 2010, because of a geopolitical incident between China and Japan, seventeen elements of the periodic table known as rare earths became notorious overnight. An “unofficial” and temporary embargo of rare-earth shipments to Japan alerted the world to China’s near monopoly position on the production and export of these indispensable elements for high-tech, defense, and renewable energy sources. A few months before the geopolitical confrontation, China had chosen to substantially cut export quotas of rare earths. Both events sent shockwaves across the markets, and rare-earth prices skyrocketed, prompting reactions from industrial nations and industry itself. The rare-earth crisis is not a simple trade dispute, however. It also raises questions about China’s use of economic statecraft and the impacts of growing resource competition. A detailed and nuanced examination of the rare-earth crisis provides a significant and distinctive case study of resource competition and its spill-over geopolitical effects. It sheds light on the formulation, deployment, longevity, effectiveness, and, perhaps, shortsightedness of policy responses by other industrial nations, while also providing an example of how China might choose to employ instruments of economic statecraft in its rise to superpower status.

This book honors the memory of Brian Hesse, a scholar of Near Eastern archaeology, a writer of alliterative and punned publication titles, and an accomplished amateur photographer. Hesse specialized in zooarchaeology, but he influenced a wider range of excavators and ancient historians with his broad interpretive reach. He spent much of his career analyzing faunal materials from different countries in the Middle East-including Iran, Yemen, and Israel, and his publications covered themes particular to animal bone studies, such as domestication, ancient market economics, as well as broader themes such as determining ethnicity in archaeology. The essays in this volume reflect the breadth of his interests. Most chapters share an Old World geographic setting, focusing either on Europe or the Middle East. The topics are diverse, with the majority discussing animal bones, as was Hesse's specialization, but some take a nonfaunal perspective related to the problems with which Hesse grappled. The volume is also broad in temporal scope, ranging from Neolithic Iran to early Medieval England, and it addresses theoretical matters as well as methodological innovations including taphonomy and the history of computers in zooarchaeology. Several of the essays are direct revisits to, inspirations from, or extensions of Hesse's own research. All the contributions reflect his intense interest in social questions about antiquity; the theme of social archaeology informed much of Brian Hesse's thinking, and it is why his work made such an impact on those working outside his own disciplinary research.

AbstractIn wake of the 1970s energy crisis, labour markets in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries changed considerably: deindustrialisation, low economic growth, and high structural unemployment challenged the standard employment relationship (SER), and a flexibilisation of employment was promoted. Tertiarisation and increasing female labour market participation fuelled the spread of non-standard forms of employment (NSER) such as part-time and temporary work. Since the 1990s, EU member countries aligned their NSER regulation to that of the SER, while in other OECD countries, NSERs remained un(der)regulated. The chapter illustrates the transformation of labour markets and the development of NSER regulation for selected countries, relying on national Labour Force Surveys and the Cambridge Labour Regulation Index. It tells the story of how membership in a supranational organisation has shaped national labour legislation.

AbstractThis chapter, Infrastructural connectivity and difference, presents two strategic planning proposals dealing with “direct” impacts of the construction of the China-Laos Railway. Practices of “sustainable” development, in those practices’ approaches, however genuine, to physically and economically connect communities to new markets and generate new economies, disrupt preexisting modes of connectivity, whether socioeconomic, cultural or ecological. One proposal offers strategies to mitigate the socioecological impacts of temporary access roads built tends of kilometers into rural landscape to construct the China-Laos Railway, while the other proposal offers physical and organizational strategies for impacted agricultural communities to mitigate the disruption of irrigation networks, fragmented farmlands, issues of development transparency and uncertainty in compensation timelines. Through these proposals’ analyses and strategic deployment of connectivity and emphasis of cultural and ecological difference, they may help reform discourse on the assessment of cumulative impacts in the development process.

Verbal aspect in the Macedonian dialect of Boboshtica-Drenova and Albanian-Slavic language contact - Long-term subdominant bilingualism with Albanian has had a significant impact on verbal aspect marking in the Macedonian dialect of Boboshtica-Drenova (South-East Albania). The Slavic formal opposition of perfective and imperfective aspect marked through a variety of derivational methods has been preserved. However, under Albanian influence two continuous aspect con­structions have been grammaticalised in the dialect, one of them based on the locative ǵe, and the other on the adversative conjunction toko. The paths of grammaticalization of these markers are investigated, which include structural transfer (ǵe < locative and temporal tek, toko < adversative and continuous po), which is partially supported by the phonetic similarity between the respective Albanian and Macedonian dialectal markers (toko || duke, tek).

AbstractIn graphic and industrial printing applications inkjet technologies are gaining attention and market coverage. Beside some key success factors as scalability there is an inherent difficulty of temporally or permanent defective/non operating nozzles. These non working nozzle have a severe impact on printed quality. Several approaches are known to reduce these artefacts. One is to use multi-pass printing, sometimes in combination with the use of defect nozzle information. Another is to detect these nozzles direct or indirect and use for example so called reserve nozzles. A predecessor thereof is the detection of pen lines (Beauchamp et al (1992) Hewlett-Packard J 12:35–41). In multi-nozzle systems individual or groups of nozzles are addressed to fire using a matrix scheme. This method reduces the number of used address lines.Here an automated working scheme is sketched to firstly identify defect nozzles using a sample print by means of a dedicated pattern. A digital picture taken by scan or camera is the basis of an image analysis procedure afterwards. Secondly it is shown that, once the matrix configuration is known, possible defects of the address lines may be identified too. Finally a pattern dedicated to a specific print head is introduced to check the later fact visually.

AbstractFor universities and colleges around the world the COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant disruption, which has created new challenges and possibilities, as well as amplifying existing trends. This chapter focuses on several dimensions of the pandemic-related disruption that affected universities and their students in many countries and has had widespread impacts on operations and teaching. The chapter examines some dimensions of government policy that widely affected universities: focussing on two main dimensions of those policies that temporarily reduced student movement, and those that involved a direct reduction in investment in public university education. It explores some of what government responses have meant for university operations, and the delivery of their teaching, and implications for the scholarship of teaching and learning. Focussing on the case of Australia as example of government policy responses that did little to address the specific issues universities faced resulting from the pandemic, and instead the government response was guided by ideology and reflected an attachment to using competitive mechanisms and market dynamics. The actions of the Australian government appear extreme compared to many jurisdictions, such as in many countries in Europe and in the United States, yet they align with their recent approach and their adherence to the New Public Management. That the pandemic significantly affected higher education policies is unsurprising, nonetheless examining how this occurred is instructive.

Abstract Prior to the 1990s, social compromise and job security typically characterized Japan’s employment relations, although they were marked by distinctive gendered and unequal patterns. From the 1990s onwards, there has been a gradual growth of neoliberalism and increased use of flexible non-regular workers, which has deepened inequality and insecurity, particularly for female workers. By tracing the historical development, this chapter demonstrates how a lack of willingness to achieve gender equality and persistent bias against women continue to dominate Japan’s political and economic domain. In so doing, the chapter highlights obstacles to Japanese labour market reforms, which have a profound impact on women in the long term.

We investigate the impact of labour relations (including use of flexible labour and certain HRM practices) on a firm’s innovative output. Using firm-level data for the Netherlands, we find that active HRM practices such as job rotation, performance pay, high qualification levels of personnel, as well as making use of employees with long-term temporary contracts contribute positively to innovative output, the latter being measured by the log of new product sales per employee. Furthermore, firms that retain high levels of highly qualified personnel are more likely to introduce products that are new to the market (other than only’new to the firm’). Our findings contribute to the growing literature on determinants of innovative performance.

Competition law as one of the foundations of a market economy whose main purpose is to ensure an equal position of entrepreneurs in the market, regardless of the size, market power and other features of the implied system of state aid both at central and local and regional level. The aim and purpose of this research is a clear and tentative way of pointing out the importance of competition in relation to coronavirus. In order to achieve this goal, the paper seeks to provide scientifically based answers to a number of current issues, starting from detention from the definitions of competition and coronavirus. In addition to the above, it is necessary to consider how this disease affected entrepreneurship, which had positive and negative consequences. In addition, it is important to note that it has left a significant impact on our mental health. The main results of the research point to the fact that the coronavirus as a global, economic and health crisis suddenly caught us all overnight and as such changed our lives. In addition to greatly affecting the economy, there is also a blow to the company. In case of suspicion of infection, the obligation to call a doctor, ie a territorially competent epidemiologist, and the obligation to go to an outpatient clinic are determined as a preventive measure. In this paper, qualitative research in correlation with quantitative research was used. Starting from the fact that quantitative research is based on the description of individual conditions, ie the establishment of cause-and-effect relationships, the paper in a representative way seeks to simplify the concept of competition as the driving force of a market economy that entails many benefits consumer choice, innovation. In addition, considering the coronavirus from a quantitative point of view, it is manifested in how the coronavirus as a new strain of virus, discovered in humans, 'stirred' the whole world as such forced people to care about their health and the health of our loved ones. Also, an obligation to adhere to epidemiological measures to prevent the spread of coronavirus infection has been introduced. Qualitative research, as a term used to describe research that focuses on the way individuals and groups view and understand the world, also has a significant impact on this work, primarily because it considers how the pandemic affected the health of people interacting with each other.

Ongoing urbanization, combined with market fundamentalism as the prevailing mode of political management, is leading to the spatial and social segregation of economic classes in cities. The housing market, being driven by economic interests rather than public policy, favors inflexible forms of ownership or tenancy that are increasingly incompatible with the more diverse forms of live-work patterns and family structures occurring in the society. This paper presents a research-by-design project that explores a speculative future scenario of housing, based on current developments in digital technologies and their impact on the mobility and accessibility to services enjoyed by urban residents. It references technology platforms that underpin the 'sharing economy' or 'gig economy', such as 'pay-as-you-go' car and bike sharing programs or internet and smartphone-based services for taxis or temporary accommodation. The study explores how new forms of participation in the housing market could circumvent the current segregation of different communities across the city. It describes a speculative system of distributed residential spaces, accessible to all on a 'pay-for-time-used' basis. By offering freedom of choice across domestic functions of greater range and accessibility than found within existing housing or hotel accommodation, the system would enable opportunistic or nomadic forms of living linked to the dynamic spatio-temporal occurrences of social, cultural or economic opportunities. The research references how new forms of social networking create new challenges and opportunities to participate in communities and explores how new technologies, applied to housing, can help to find a 'sense of belonging' within the technological society.

In this study, the effects of credit volume, stock market trading volume and currency protected deposit (CPD) system on financial deepening (M2/M1) of the Turkish economy for the period 2010M1:2023M2 (T=158) are analyzed by Structural VAR (SVAR) method. According to the findings, credit volume shocks have a significant effect while the effect of stock market trading volume is limited. In advanced financial systems, the M2/M1 ratio hovers between 4 and 6. The financial deepening ratio, which was measured as 4.86 at the beginning of the analyzed period, was at its lowest level of 2.41 in 2021M12 when the CPD system was announced. After the implementation of the CPD system, the financial deepening ratio improved slightly to 2.67. At the same time, the existence of structural change before and after the CPD system is found to be significant according to the Chow test. On the other hand, when the developments in financial markets are analyzed, the significant increase in credit volume was not reflected positively on financial deepening. The inflationary process in recent years has had a significant impact on this process. In conclusion, inflationary expectations and the increase in asset purchases are the main factors behind the decline in financial deepening in the Turkish economy. Although the CPD system has been reasonably successful, rationally based policies are needed to replace this practice, which is expected to be temporary, as well as to strengthen financial deepening.

The outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic was a shock for the global economy. It affected almost every country, but certainly in developing countries its impact was harder. The immediate effect was the shortage of several medical and paramedical equipment which were necessary to prevent the virus spread. This shortage was felt in Albanian markets as well and was rapidly followed by a sharp increase of prices in paramedical products. The consumers suffered the highly increased prices amongst fear that in absence of these products, their life was threatened. This behaviour of the market participants was considered suspicious by the Competition Authority which decided to initiate a preliminary investigation to find out whether this behaviour was abusive, or it normally reflected the sudden shortage and the state of emergency. The instigation of this procedure was based on several complaints reported in the media and complaints directly submitted by consumers to the Competition Authority. At the first glance, the traders were exploiting the health emergency to maximise their profits. Subsequently, the Competition Authority (CA) decided to apply some preliminary measures on the wholesale market operators. Furthermore, the CA intervened even in a case of a company in dominant position which was furnishing selected pharmacies. These interventions aimed at restoring somehow the distorted competition in paramedical and medical products. This article will try to shed light on the current market situation and on the effectiveness of the interventions of the CA. How should the Competition Authority behave to restore the distorted competition? Are the current introduced measures enough to help all market participants overcome this state of health emergency? These questions and other issues related with the peculiar situation will be addressed in the current article. The article will be organized as follows: First, a glimpse of the regulation of Albanian competition law will be given. Second, the situation under COVID-19 emergency will be elaborated taking into consideration the guidelines of Communication of the Commission on “Temporary Framework for assessing antitrust issues related to business cooperation in response to situations of urgency stemming from the current COVID-19 outbreak” (2020/C 116 I/02). Lastly, the evaluation of the measures introduced by the Competition authority will be analysed and recommendations will be provided.

An analysis of the impact of hydrokinetic energy technology schemes has been carried out on the following river parameters: water quality, the riverbed and bank stability, sediment dynamics, coastal and aquatic vegetation, fish communities, noise, aesthetics, fishing and riverbed practicability (kayaks and barges). Hydrokinetic energy generation technologies are compared to conventional tidal technologies. Each parameter assessed was evaluated for minor, notable, high, and very high likelihood of constant and temporary exposure. Subordinate elements, such as aesthetics, fishing, and river practicability were determined to be the greatest possible use of hydrokinetic energy schemes in the world rather than river ecosystem elements. The researchers carried out an approximate assessment of the economic indicators because Lithuania does not operate hydrokinetic power plants. An assessment of reduced investment and electricity market energy purchase price indicates that the approximate payback period is six years and the net present value in the seventh year of operation is EUR 7,450.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) capture with amine scrubbing at coal-fired power plants can remove 90% of the CO2 from flue gas, but operational energy requirements reduce net electrical output by 20–30%. Temporarily reducing the load on energy intensive components of the amine scrubbing process could temporarily increase power output and allow additional electricity sales when prices are high. Doing so could entail additional CO2 emissions, or amine solvent storage can be utilized to allow increased power output without additional CO2 emissions. Price-responsive flexible capture is studied for $0–200/tCO2 and $2–11/MMBTU natural gas using a nominal 500 MW coal-fired facility in the 2010 Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid. CO2 capture systems use a 7 molal monoethanolamine (MEA) solvent. Venting additional CO2 while increasing electrical output provides significant benefit only at $30–60/tCO2 and when natural gas prices exceed $4/MMBTU. Solvent storage can improve profitability with CO2 capture at higher CO2 emissions penalties, but primarily at low-to-moderate natural gas prices when power plant capacity factor is less than 90%.

Market basket analysis is a powerful technique for understanding customer behavior and optimizing business strategies based on that understanding. Market-based analysis over time using visualization techniques can provide insights into market trends and relations, simplify complex data, and communicate insights effectively, which can help organizations make more informed decisions. This paper leverages a dataset focused on the users’ incomes and temporal aspects of market purchases. We modeled this dataset as three distinct temporal networks and performed an exploratory evaluation identifying patterns and anomalies in the data. More specifically, we identified groups of related products, indicating thematic purchases, and evaluated the impact of demographic factors, such as income, on customer spending.

Abstract Organic Chloride is organic compound that have chlorine atoms as part of its chemical composition. Over the last four years, there has been continuous increase of number of research papers addressing the corrosion impact of organic chlorides in processes that includes high temperature like distillation towers. Where chlorine atoms start to detach and form free radicals in moisture wetting metal surfaces and result in severe corrosion of distillation towers. The Fact that led regulatory agencies to set a threshold number for maximum allowable content of organic chloride in crude beyond which crude is either not accepted or depreciated. That puts pressure on oil producers to maintain acceptable levels of organic chloride content. Companies working in Refineries are more familiar with organic chlorides than upstream operators are. Having the regulatory agencies pushing on setting limits on maximum allowable content of organic chlorides in crude. Now many operators are looking for a way to keep monitoring OC within limits and to define potential sources. Organic Chlorides rarely naturally exist in crude oil. That means there should be external source to contaminate crude such as chemicals used during the extensive operations in the oil field from drilling chemicals, stimulation, production, process, ETC. A leading example from Gulf of Suez, late 2021 a concern was raised on organic chlorides levels in crude of one of the prolific fields and the risk was to have negative impact on crude oil pricing. The risk would be dramatic on the large scale since all crude from different fields gather at the processing facilities then goes to same storage tank. An integrated Multidisciplinary in house task force team was formed to investigate the root causes for OC levels. The team reviewed MSDS of all chemicals consumed in all operations, qualified a Lab from Local Market for testing OC in crude Following ASTM D4929. Developed a comprehensive sampling and tracing strategy to be able to trace back to root causes. Over 5 Months of Monitoring, tracing and correlation between ongoing daily operations and OC levels. In addition to testing chemicals for OC. It was concluded that batches of organic solvent from one supplier are contaminated by OC. Contaminated Batches were quarantined and not used for daily operations. Another supplier was qualified for temporary supply of this type of solvent. As a result of the deep investigation a set of lessons learnt and recommended practices were generated and communicated with different disciplines for awareness and compliance to maintain OC levels manageable. Which in return saved operator company from the risk of depreciation of Crude oil price. Testing Chemicals with organic components are key for eliminating OC in crude and this should be done in Batch basis.

There is a wide literature that temporary shocks in real exchange rates and volatility will cause structural breaks in foreign trade. As a result of temporary shocks in real exchange rates, the real exchange rate elasticity of imports decreases. The decrease in the sensitivity of the import volume to real exchange rates and the failure to return to its former levels after the temporary shock is expressed as the hysteresis situation. In case the exchange rates return to their previous levels after the temporary shock, the main dynamic of hysteresis is that the firms exhibit the behavior of staying in the market due to sunk costs. In the study, foreign trade flows in the Turkish economy were analyzed for the period 2003Q1-2021Q2 by using the asymmetry hypothesis in order to test the hysteresis effects. According to the findings obtained from the asymmetry hypothesis, the absence of a decrease in the import volume during the period of depreciation of the domestic currency indicates the existence of the hysteresis effect. The fact that the firms exhibited the behavior of staying in the market in exchange rate depreciation in the Turkish economy means that sunk costs are extremely effective in hysteresis. Based on this information, as a solution to the hysteresis effects in foreign trade flows in the Turkish economy at the point of policymaking, reducing the sunk costs in market entry to reasonable levels and ensuring stability in exchange rates come to the fore as suggestions in terms of hysteresis.

The increase in electricity prices, which peaked in August 2022, has affected the various activities carried out in the Spanish electricity sector differently. This paper analyses the impact of this increase on the sector, distinguishing between electric power companies and electricity retailers, paying special attention to their operating profit and, particularly, to the influence of aspects such as (i) the incidence of forward contracts with a fixed price, (ii) asymmetric exposure to price increases in wholesale electricity markets, or (iii) belonging to vertically integrated groups, in the case of electricity retailers. The effect on the sector of the measures rolled out by the authorities to mitigate the impact of higher electricity costs on households and companies in Spain is also analysed. Of note among these measures are the Iberian Exception (a mechanism to cap the cost of the gas used in electricity generation) and the temporary deduction of the so-called excess remuneration arising from higher gas prices. Lastly, this paper studies the impact of the extraordinary temporary levy that energy companies must pay on net turnover for 2022 and 2023.

*Chapter 9 of the forthcoming book "Economic Analysis of Land Use in Global Climate Change Policy," edited by Thomas W. Hertel, Steven Rose, and Richard S.J. Tol The goal of this Chapter is to study the complex interaction between agriculture, economic growth and the environment, given future uncertainties. We combine economic concepts and biophysical constraints in one consistent modeling framework to be able to quantify and analyze the long-term socio-economic and environmental consequences of different scenarios. Here, we present the innovative methodology of coupling an economic and a biophysical model to combine state of the art knowledge from economic and biophysical sources. First, a comprehensive representation of the agricultural and land markets is required in the economic model. Therefore we included a land demand structure to reflect the degree of substitutability of types of land-use types and we included a land supply curve to include the process of land conversion and land abandonment. Secondly, the adapted economic model (LEITAP) is linked to the biophysical-based integrated assessment model IMAGE allowing to feed back spatially and temporarily varying land productivity to the economic framework. Thirdly, the land supply curves in the economic model are parameterized by using the heterogeneous information of land productivity from IMAGE. This link between an economic and biophysical model benefits from the strengths of both models. The economic model captures features of the global food market, including relations between world regions, whereas the bio-physical model adds geographical explicit information on crop growth within each world region. An illustrative baseline analyses shows the environmental consequences of the default baseline and a sensitivity analyses is performed with regard to the land supply curve. Results indicate that economic and environmental consequences are very dependent on whether a country is land scarce or land abundant.

Between 2014 and 2020 over 1.8 million refugees fled from Venezuela to Colombia as a result of a humanitarian crisis, many of them without a regular migratory status. We study the short- to medium-term labor market impacts in Colombia of the Permiso Temporal de Permanencia program, the largest migratory amnesty program offered to undocumented migrants in a developing country in modern history. The program granted regular migratory status and work permits to nearly half a million undocumented Venezuelan migrants in Colombia in August 2018. To identify the effects of the program, we match confidential administrative data on the location of undocumented migrants with department-monthly data from household surveys and compare labor outcomes in departments that were granted different average time windows to register for the amnesty online, before and after the program roll-out. We are only able to distinguish negative albeit negligible effects of the program on the formal employment of Colombian workers. These effects are predominantly concentrated in highly educated and in female workers.

Annual Report on Migration and Asylum gives overview of statistics and developments in migration in 2022. The European Migration Network (EMN) Ireland within the ESRI has published its annual review of migration and asylum in Ireland. The EMN is an EU network that provides objective, comparable policy-relevant information on migration and international protection. EMN Ireland is located in the ESRI and is funded by the European Union and the Department of Justice. With an overview of the latest data as well as policy and operational developments, research, and case law from 2022, this report is a comprehensive reference that gives an opportunity to view the entire migration landscape in Ireland. The report shows that many forms of migration are recovering quickly from COVID-19 travel restrictions. It also shows that migration is being impacted by shortages in the labour market and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. As a result of these developments and others, Ireland saw a significant increase in immigration, with 141,600 people arriving in the year leading up to April 2023, according to CSO figures. This represents a 31% increase from the year to April 2022. However, emigration also increased, with 64,000 individuals leaving Ireland during the same period, marking a 14% increase from the previous year. 2022 saw a significant increase in first residence permits (which are granted to migrants from outside the EEA) from 2021. 85,793 permits were issued in 2022, with education the most common reason for permits (48%). Partially reflecting changes to eligible occupations for employment permits, the number of employment permits issued was the highest in the last 10 years. 39,995 employment permits were issued, with the information and communication sector the largest recipient of permits. Key developments in this area highlighted by the report include discussions on and progress with the Employment Permits Bill, changes to the Atypical Working Scheme, plans for a single application procedure for employment permits and immigration permissions, and changes to employment permits occupation lists to respond to labour market shortages. The report analyses international protection, showing significant increases in international protection applications as well as details of applications, decisions made, and statuses awarded. It shows an expansion of decision-making in response to increased applications. Looking at the broader EU situation, the report shows that applications for international protection in Ireland accounted for 1.3% of the EU total in 2022. The report also details the pressure on the reception and accommodation system for international protection applicants and beneficiaries of temporary protection, as well as the extraordinary measures taken to scale these up. It highlights measures taken to implement the White Paper to End Direct Provision and informs on a review of timelines of the plan. It discusses changes made by the International Protection Office to speed up processing, and criticism of these measures by NGOs, as well as details of the regularisation scheme for undocumented migrants and the humanitarian admission of Afghans. The Temporary Protection Directive – an EU Directive that creates an exceptional measure to provide immediate and temporary protection in the event of a mass influx of displaced persons – was triggered for the first time in March 2022, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. As a result, the report includes a dedicated chapter with statistics relating to arrivals and a detailed overview of Ireland’s response to displaced persons from Ukraine. It also gives a comprehensive overview of other areas of migration, as well as research and case law from 2022, providing a crucial reference text for anyone working in the area.

La regulación económica es determinante para que los servicios de infraestructura se provean con eficiencia, calidad y a precios asequibles. La literatura económica se ha concentrado en los impactos de la regulación en los mercados de infraestructura, siendo mucho más escasa la que analiza los impactos macroeconómicos y distributivos de dicha regulación. Este paper mide los impactos del desempeño del regulador en variables macroeconómicas crecimiento económico, actividad de los sectores que utilizan servicios de infraestructura y bienestar de los hogares. Para ello elaboramos un modelo de Equilibrio General Computado (CGE) y utilizamos las Matrices de Contabilidad Social (MCS) de Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Costa Rica, Jamaica y Perú para evaluar el papel del regulador. Se modelan dos casos extremos. (i) Regulador ineficiente: el regulador no tiene la habilidad o los instrumentos para que los precios estén alineados a los costos, estableciendo un markup del 10%. (ii) Regulador benevolente: el regulador fija un markup del 10% temporal (solo en el primer período) para fondear obras de infraestructura con tres outputs diferenciados en calidad del servicio: (ii-a) aumento del stock de infraestructura sin cambios en calidad del servicio; (ii-b) aumento del stock de infraestructura y mejoras de calidad en la provisión de los servicios; y (ii-c) aumento del stock de infraestructura y pérdidas de calidad del servicio producto de inversión en proyectos inadecuados. Para (ii-b) diferenciamos en qué medida el impacto sobre la actividad y el bienestar de los hogares son explicados por mejoras de calidad en el entramado productivo y en qué medida a través de mejoras directas a los hogares; esto constituye un aspecto novedoso en la literatura. Los resultados muestran que cuando el regulador es benevolente la inversión genera crecimiento económico en todos los países; en estos casos, el bienestar de los hogares suele ser positivo, aunque su magnitud varía. Cuando el regulador estimula inversión que genera mejoras de calidad (ii-b) se generan los mayores impactos en bienestar y crecimiento. El principal impacto de las mejoras de calidad se da a través de la industria, ya que los sectores que forman parte del entramado productivo tienen un efecto multiplicador más grande que los hogares. En el escenario de un regulador benevolente, asignaciones de recursos a inversiones que empeoran la calidad del servicio (ii-c) tienen costos significativos en términos de crecimiento y bienestar de los hogares. Los resultados del escenario del regulador ineficiente muestran la importancia de desarrollar y capacitar a los reguladores económicos. No hacerlo reduce el crecimiento económico y empeora la distribución del ingreso.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

This paper critically evaluates debates over the causes of U.S. inflation. We first show that claims that the Biden stimulus was the major cause of inflation are mistaken: the key data series – stimulus spending and inflation – move dramatically out of phase. While the first ebbs quickly, the second persistently surges. We then look at alternative explanations of the price rises. We assess four supply side factors: imports, energy prices, rises in corporate profit margins, and COVID. We argue that discussions of COVID’s impact have thus far only tangentially acknowledged the pandemic’s far-reaching effects on labor markets. We conclude that while all four factors played roles in bringing on and sustaining inflation, they cannot explain all of it. There really is an aggregate demand problem. But the surprise surge in demand did not arise from government spending. It came from the unprecedented gains in household wealth, particularly for the richest 10% of households, which we show powered the recovery of aggregate US consumption expenditure especially from July 2021. The final cause of the inflationary surge in the U.S., therefore, was in large measure the unequal (wealth) effects of ultra-loose monetary policy during 2020-2021. This conclusion is important because inflationary pressures are unlikely to subside soon. Going forward, COVID, war, climate change, and the drift to a belligerently multipolar world system are all likely to strain global supply chains. Our conclusion outlines how policy has to change to deal with the reality of steady, but irregular supply shocks. This type of inflation responds only at enormous cost to monetary policies, because it arises mostly from supply-side difficulties that require targeted solutions. But when supply plummets or becomes more variable, fiscal policy also has to adapt: existing explorations of ways to steady demand over the business cycle have to embrace much bolder macroeconomic measures to control over-spending when supply is temporarily constrained.

The objectives of this project were to develop procedures and models, based on neural networks, for quality sorting of agricultural produce. Two research teams, one in Purdue University and the other in Israel, coordinated their research efforts on different aspects of each objective utilizing both melons and tomatoes as case studies. At Purdue: An expert system was developed to measure variances in human grading. Data were acquired from eight sensors: vision, two firmness sensors (destructive and nondestructive), chlorophyll from fluorescence, color sensor, electronic sniffer for odor detection, refractometer and a scale (mass). Data were analyzed and provided input for five classification models. Chlorophyll from fluorescence was found to give the best estimation for ripeness stage while the combination of machine vision and firmness from impact performed best for quality sorting. A new algorithm was developed to estimate and minimize training size for supervised classification. A new criteria was established to choose a training set such that a recurrent auto-associative memory neural network is stabilized. Moreover, this method provides for rapid and accurate updating of the classifier over growing seasons, production environments and cultivars. Different classification approaches (parametric and non-parametric) for grading were examined. Statistical methods were found to be as accurate as neural networks in grading. Classification models by voting did not enhance the classification significantly. A hybrid model that incorporated heuristic rules and either a numerical classifier or neural network was found to be superior in classification accuracy with half the required processing of solely the numerical classifier or neural network. In Israel: A multi-sensing approach utilizing non-destructive sensors was developed. Shape, color, stem identification, surface defects and bruises were measured using a color image processing system. Flavor parameters (sugar, acidity, volatiles) and ripeness were measured using a near-infrared system and an electronic sniffer. Mechanical properties were measured using three sensors: drop impact, resonance frequency and cyclic deformation. Classification algorithms for quality sorting of fruit based on multi-sensory data were developed and implemented. The algorithms included a dynamic artificial neural network, a back propagation neural network and multiple linear regression. Results indicated that classification based on multiple sensors may be applied in real-time sorting and can improve overall classification. Advanced image processing algorithms were developed for shape determination, bruise and stem identification and general color and color homogeneity. An unsupervised method was developed to extract necessary vision features. The primary advantage of the algorithms developed is their ability to learn to determine the visual quality of almost any fruit or vegetable with no need for specific modification and no a-priori knowledge. Moreover, since there is no assumption as to the type of blemish to be characterized, the algorithm is capable of distinguishing between stems and bruises. This enables sorting of fruit without knowing the fruits' orientation. A new algorithm for on-line clustering of data was developed. The algorithm's adaptability is designed to overcome some of the difficulties encountered when incrementally clustering sparse data and preserves information even with memory constraints. Large quantities of data (many images) of high dimensionality (due to multiple sensors) and new information arriving incrementally (a function of the temporal dynamics of any natural process) can now be processed. Furhermore, since the learning is done on-line, it can be implemented in real-time. The methodology developed was tested to determine external quality of tomatoes based on visual information. An improved model for color sorting which is stable and does not require recalibration for each season was developed for color determination. Excellent classification results were obtained for both color and firmness classification. Results indicted that maturity classification can be obtained using a drop-impact and a vision sensor in order to predict the storability and marketing of harvested fruits. In conclusion: We have been able to define quantitatively the critical parameters in the quality sorting and grading of both fresh market cantaloupes and tomatoes. We have been able to accomplish this using nondestructive measurements and in a manner consistent with expert human grading and in accordance with market acceptance. This research constructed and used large databases of both commodities, for comparative evaluation and optimization of expert system, statistical and/or neural network models. The models developed in this research were successfully tested, and should be applicable to a wide range of other fruits and vegetables. These findings are valuable for the development of on-line grading and sorting of agricultural produce through the incorporation of multiple measurement inputs that rapidly define quality in an automated manner, and in a manner consistent with the human graders and inspectors.

Key Message Ontario long-term care (LTC) home residents have experienced disproportionately high morbidity and mortality, both from COVID-19 and from the conditions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. There are several measures that could be effective in preventing COVID-19 outbreaks, hospitalizations, and deaths in Ontario’s LTC homes, if implemented. First, temporary staffing could be minimized by improving staff working conditions. Second, homes could be further decrowded by a continued disallowance of three- and four-resident rooms and additional temporary housing for the most crowded homes. Third, the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in staff could be minimized by approaches that reduce the risk of transmission in communities with a high burden of COVID-19. Summary Background The Province of Ontario has 626 licensed LTC homes and 77,257 long-stay beds; 58% of homes are privately owned, 24% are non-profit/charitable, 16% are municipal. LTC homes were strongly affected during Ontario’s first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. Questions What do we know about the first and second waves of COVID-19 in Ontario LTC homes? Which risk factors are associated with COVID-19 outbreaks in Ontario LTC homes and the extent and death rates associated with outbreaks? What has been the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the general health and wellbeing of LTC residents? How has the existing Ontario evidence on COVID-19 in LTC settings been used to support public health interventions and policy changes in these settings? What are the further measures that could be effective in preventing COVID-19 outbreaks, hospitalizations, and deaths in Ontario’s LTC homes? Findings As of January 14, 2021, a total of 3,211 Ontario LTC home residents have died of COVID-19, totaling 60.7% of all 5,289 COVID-19 deaths in Ontario to date. There have now been more cumulative LTC home outbreaks during the second wave as compared with the first wave. The infection and death rates among LTC residents have been lower during the second wave, as compared with the first wave, and a greater number of LTC outbreaks have involved only staff infections. The growth rate of SARS-CoV-2 infections among LTC residents was slower during the first two months of the second wave in September and October 2020, as compared with the first wave. However, the growth rate after the two-month mark is comparatively faster during the second wave. The majority of second wave infections and deaths in LTC homes have occurred between December 1, 2020, and January 14, 2021 (most recent date of data extraction prior to publication). This highlights the recent intensification of the COVID-19 pandemic in LTC homes that has mirrored the recent increase in community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 across Ontario. Evidence from Ontario demonstrates that the risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks and subsequent deaths in LTC are distinct from the risk factors for outbreaks and deaths in the community (Figure 1). The most important risk factors for whether a LTC home will experience an outbreak is the daily incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the communities surrounding the home and the occurrence of staff infections. The most important risk factors for the magnitude of an outbreak and the number of resulting resident deaths are older design, chain ownership, and crowding. Figure 1. Anatomy of Outbreaks and Spread of COVID-19 in LTC Homes and Among Residents Figure from Peter Hamilton, personal communication. Many Ontario LTC home residents have experienced severe and potentially irreversible physical, cognitive, psychological, and functional declines as a result of precautionary public health interventions imposed on homes, such as limiting access to general visitors and essential caregivers, resident absences, and group activities. There has also been an increase in the prescribing of psychoactive drugs to Ontario LTC residents. The accumulating evidence on COVID-19 in Ontario’s LTC homes has been leveraged in several ways to support public health interventions and policy during the pandemic. Ontario evidence showed that SARS-CoV-2 infections among LTC staff was associated with subsequent COVID-19 deaths among LTC residents, which motivated a public order to restrict LTC staff from working in more than one LTC home in the first wave. Emerging Ontario evidence on risk factors for LTC home outbreaks and deaths has been incorporated into provincial pandemic surveillance tools. Public health directives now attempt to limit crowding in LTC homes by restricting occupancy to two residents per room. The LTC visitor policy was also revised to designate a maximum of two essential caregivers who can visit residents without time limits, including when a home is experiencing an outbreak. Several further measures could be effective in preventing COVID-19 outbreaks, hospitalizations, and deaths in Ontario’s LTC homes. First, temporary staffing could be minimized by improving staff working conditions. Second, the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in staff could be minimized by measures that reduce the risk of transmission in communities with a high burden of COVID-19. Third, LTC homes could be further decrowded by a continued disallowance of three- and four-resident rooms and additional temporary housing for the most crowded homes. Other important issues include improved prevention and detection of SARS-CoV-2 infection in LTC staff, enhanced infection prevention and control (IPAC) capacity within the LTC homes, a more balanced and nuanced approach to public health measures and IPAC strategies in LTC homes, strategies to promote vaccine acceptance amongst residents and staff, and further improving data collection on LTC homes, residents, staff, visitors and essential caregivers for the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic. Interpretation Comparisons of the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in the LTC setting reveal improvement in some but not all epidemiological indicators. Despite this, the second wave is now intensifying within LTC homes and without action we will likely experience a substantial additional loss of life before the widespread administration and time-dependent maximal effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines. The predictors of outbreaks, the spread of infection, and deaths in Ontario’s LTC homes are well documented and have remained unchanged between the first and the second wave. Some of the evidence on COVID-19 in Ontario’s LTC homes has been effectively leveraged to support public health interventions and policies. Several further measures, if implemented, have the potential to prevent additional LTC home COVID-19 outbreaks and deaths.

Channel Islands National Park includes the five northern islands off the coast of southern California (San Miguel, Santa Rosa, Santa Cruz, Anacapa, and Santa Barbara Islands) and the surrounding waters out one nautical mile. There are approximately 176 miles of coastline around the islands, about 80% of which is composed of rock. The diversity and undisturbed nature of the tidepools of this rocky coastline were recognized as special features of the islands in the enabling legislation. To conserve these communities unimpaired for future generations, the National Park Service has been monitoring the rocky intertidal communities at the islands since 1982. Sites were established between 1982 and 1998. Site selection considered visitation, accessibility, presence of representative organisms, wildlife disturbance, and safety. This report summarizes the 2018–2019 sampling year efforts (from November 2018 to April 2019) and findings of the Channel Islands National Park Rocky Intertidal Community Monitoring Program. Specific monitoring objectives are 1) to determine the long-term trends in percent cover of key sessile organisms in the rocky intertidal ecosystem, and 2) to determine population dynamics of black abalone (Haliotis cracherodii), owl limpets (Lottia gigantea), and ochre sea stars (Pisaster ochraceus). Objectives were met by monitoring percent cover of core species in target intertidal zones using photoplots and transects, and by measuring size frequency and abundance of black abalone, owl limpets, and sea stars using fixed plots or timed searches. Twelve key species or assemblages, as well as the substrate, tar, have been monitored twice per year at 21 sites on the five park islands as part of the rocky intertidal community monitoring program. Fixed photoplots were used to monitor the percent cover of thatched and acorn barnacles (Tetraclita rubescens, Balanus glandula/Chthamalus spp., respectively), mussels (Mytilus californianus), rockweeds (Silvetia compressa, and Pelvetiopsis californica (formerly Hesperophycus californicus), turfweed (Endocladia muricata), goose barnacles (Pollicipes polymerus) and tar. Point-intercept transects were used to determine the percent cover of surfgrass (Phyllospadix spp.). Information about size distribution (i.e., “size frequency” data) was collected for owl limpets in circular plots. Size distribution and relative abundance of black abalone and ochre sea stars were determined using timed searches. The maximum number of shorebirds and pinnipeds seen at one time were counted at each site. The number of concession boat visitors to the Anacapa tidepools was collected and reported. All sites were monitored in 2018–2019. This was the third year that we officially reduced our sampling interval from twice per year (spring and fall) to once in order to streamline the program and allow for the implementation of additional protocols. Weather conditions during the site visits were satisfactory, but high wind coupled with strong swell and surge limited or prevented the completion of some of the abalone and sea star searches. The percent cover for most key species or assemblages targeted in the photoplots was highly variable among sites. Mussel (Mytilus californianus) cover remained below average at Anacapa and Santa Barbara Islands. Record or near record low abundances for Mytilus were measured at Middle West Anacapa (Anacapa Island), Harris Point (San Miguel Island), Prisoner’s Harbor (Santa Cruz Island), and Sea Lion Rookery (Santa Barbara Island) sites. The only site that appeared to have above average Mytilus cover was Scorpion Rock on Santa Cruz Island. All other sites had mussel cover near or below the long-term mean. Qualitatively, Mytilus recruitment appeared low at most sites. Both rockweed species, Silvetia compressa and Pelvetiopsis californica (formerly Hesperophycus californicus), continued to decrease markedly in abundance this year at the majority of sites compared to combined averages for previous years. Fossil Reef and Northwest-Talcott on Santa Rosa Island, Sea Lion Rookery on Santa Barbara Island, and South Frenchy’s Cove on Anacapa Island were the only sites that supported Silvetia cover that was near the long-term mean. No sites exhibited above average cover of rockweed. Extremely high levels of recruitment for Silvetia and Pelvetiopsis were documented at many sites. Most sites exhibited marked declines in S. compressa abundances beginning in the early 2000s, with little recovery observed for the rockweed through this year. Barnacle (Chthamalus/Balanus spp.) cover fell below the long-term means at all islands except Anacapa, where barnacle cover was slightly above average. Endocladia muricata abundances remained comparable to the grand mean calculated for previous years at Santa Barbara, Santa Cruz, and Santa Rosa Islands, while cover of the alga decreased slightly below the long-term means at Anacapa and San Miguel Islands. Black abalone (Haliotis cracherodii) abundances at the islands remain less than one percent of 1985 population levels. Zero abalone were found throughout the entire site at Landing Cove on Santa Barbara Island and South Frenchy’s Cove on Anacapa Island. Above average abundances relative to the long-term mean generated from post-1995 data were observed at all but five sites. Juvenile black abalone were seen at all islands except Santa Barbara. Ochre sea star (Pisaster ochraceus) populations crashed in 2014 at all monitoring sites due to Sea Star Wasting Syndrome, an illness characterized by a suite of symptoms that generally result in death. The mortality event was widely considered to be the largest mortality event for marine diseases ever seen. Beginning in June 2013, the disease swiftly and significantly impacted P. ochraceus (among other species of sea stars) populations along the North American Pacific coast from Alaska to Baja California, Mexico. By the beginning of 2014, P. ochraceus abundances had declined by >95% at nearly all Channel Islands long-term intertidal monitoring sites, in addition to numerous other locations along the West Coast. At various times during the past decade, extremely high abundances (~ 500 P. ochraceus) have been observed at multiple sites, and most locations have supported >100 sea stars counted during 30-minute site-wide searches. This year, abundances ranged 0–13 individuals per site with all but one site having fewer than 10 P. ochraceus seen during routine searches. Insufficient numbers of sea stars were seen to accurately estimate the size structure of P. ochraceus populations. Only two juveniles (i.e., <50 mm) were observed at all sites combined. Giant owl limpet densities in 2018–2019 were comparable or slightly above the long-term mean at seven sites. Exceptionally high densities were measured at Northwest-Talcott on Santa Rosa Island, Otter Harbor on San Miguel Island, and Willows Anchorage on Santa Cruz Island. The sizes of L. gigantea this year varied among sites and islands. The smallest L. gigantea were observed at Otter Harbor followed closely by Willows Anchorage and Anacapa Middle West, and the largest were seen at Northwest-Talcott. Temporally, the mean sizes of L. gigantea in 2018–2019 decreased below the long-term mean at each island except Anacapa. Surfgrasses (Phyllospadix spp.) are typically monitored biannually at two sites each on Santa Cruz and Santa Rosa Islands. Beginning in 2015, all transects at each of the monitoring sites were only sampled once per year. At East Point on Santa Rosa Island, the conditions were not conducive to sampling the surfgrass transects, but qualitatively, percent cover of surfgrass appeared to be near 100% on all three transects. Relative to past years, cover of surfgrass increased above the long-term mean at Fraser Cove on Santa Cruz Island, fell slightly below the mean at Trailer on Santa Cruz Island, and remained approximately equivalent to the mean at the two Santa Rosa Island sites. Overall, the abundance and diversity of shorebirds in 2018–2019 at all sites appeared similar to observations made in recent years, with the exception of elevated numbers of brown pelicans (Pelecanus occidentalis) observed at East Point on Santa Rosa Island. Black oystercatchers (Haematopus bachmani) were the most ubiquitous shorebird seen at all sites. Black turnstones (Arenaria melanocephala) were not common relative to past years. Pinniped abundances remained comparable in 2018–2019 to historical counts for all three species that are commonly seen at the islands. Harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) were seen in the vicinity of eight sites this year. As in past years, harbor seals were most abundant at Otter Harbor and Harris Point on San Miguel Island. Elephant seals (Mirounga angustirostris) were seen at six sites during the year, where abundances ranged 1–5 individuals per location. California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) were common at Santa Barbara Island; 117 individuals were observed at Sea Lion Rookery. Sea lion abundances were higher than usual at Harris Point (N = 160) and Otter Harbor (N = 82) on San Miguel Island. Relative to past years, abundances this year were considered average at other locations.