Thematische Bibliographien / Vector Error Correction Models (VEC)

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Auswahl der wissenschaftlichen Literatur zum Thema „Vector Error Correction Models (VEC)“

Autor: Grafiati
Veröffentlicht am 4. Juni 2021
Zuletzt aktualisiert am 2. Februar 2022

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Zeitschriftenartikel zum Thema "Vector Error Correction Models (VEC)"

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Pradhan, Kailash. „The Hedging Effectiveness of Stock Index Futures: Evidence for the S&P CNX Nifty Index Traded in India“. South East European Journal of Economics and Business 6, Nr. 1 (01.04.2011): 111–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/v10033-011-0010-2.

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The Hedging Effectiveness of Stock Index Futures: Evidence for the S&P CNX Nifty Index Traded in IndiaThis study evaluates optimal hedge ratios and the hedging effectiveness of stock index futures. The optimal hedge ratios are estimated from the ordinary least square (OLS) regression model, the vector autoregression model (VAR), the vector error correction model (VECM) and multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (M-GARCH) models such as VAR-GARCH and VEC-GARCH using the S&P CNX Nifty index and its futures index. Hedging effectiveness is measured in terms of within sample and out of sample risk-return trade-off at various forecasting horizons. The analysis found that the VEC-GARCH time varying hedge ratio provides the greatest portfolio risk reduction and generates the highest portfolio returns.
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Mehrara, Mohsen, und Monire Hamldar. „Optimal Hedge Ratio for Brent Oil Market; Baysian Approach“. International Letters of Social and Humanistic Sciences 37 (August 2014): 82–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.18052/www.scipress.com/ilshs.37.82.

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This paper examines the optimal hedging ratio (OHR) for the Brent Crude Oil Futures using daily data over the period 1990/17/8-2014/11/3. To gain OHR, it is employed a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Vector Error Correction (VEC) and Baysian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) models. At last, the efficiency of these calculated OHR are compared through Edrington's index.
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Mugableh, Mohamed Ibrahim. „Does Monetary Policy Affect Economic Growth in Jordan? Evidence from Ordinary Least Square Models“. International Business Research 12, Nr. 1 (06.12.2018): 27. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ibr.v12n1p27.

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The main objective of this paper is to analyze equilibrium and dynamic causality relationships between monetary policy tools and economic growth in Jordan for the period (1990-2017). For this purpose, it considers the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and vector error correction (VEC) models estimations. The results of ARDL approach show that monetary policy variables (i.e., real interest rate and money supply) have positive impact on economic growth in long-run and short-run except inflation rate. In addition, the results of VECM indicate bidirectional causal relationships between economic growth and monetary policy variables in long-run and short-run.
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Romyen, Arisara, Jianxu Liu und Songsak Sriboonchitta. „Export–Output Growth Nexus Using Threshold VAR and VEC Models: Empirical Evidence from Thailand“. Economies 7, Nr. 2 (18.06.2019): 60. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/economies7020060.

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This paper explores the relationship between export, import, and output for Thailand over the period from 1990 to 2017. The threshold vector autoregressive (VAR) and threshold vector error correction (VEC) models were applied. The empirical evidence confirms that the export-led growth hypothesis is valid, implying feedback within the export–output growth nexus. During business cycles, the export–output characteristics in economic cycles can be classified by the two-threshold VAR and VEC models. These relevant variables converge from the long-run equilibrium. As for the thresholds which are correlated, gross domestic product (GDP) vs. export and GDP vs. import exist as a long-run equilibrium relationship, while there does not seem to be a relationship of export vs. import. Furthermore, a five-year forecast was created (the period of 2018–2022). The export–output growth scenarios appear to swing upward continuously throughout the short-term trend. Therefore, policy-makers should highlight countercyclical macroeconomic policies at lower, medium, and upper regimes to strengthen the state of recovery and encourage the state of short recession.
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Surya, Henry Viriya, und Prastowo Cahjadi. „Komparasi Regresi Ekonometri pada Perekonomian Indonesia 2SLS, VEC, dan ARIMA“. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia 2, Nr. 2 (01.01.2002): 88–112. http://dx.doi.org/10.21002/jepi.v2i2.627.

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This paper compares three models of econometric analysis on economy, in this case the Indonesian economy. The regression models are the two stage least squares (2SLS) which has a strong support from the economic theory of aggregate expenditure, the Vector Error Correction (VEC) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) which both comes from the time series analysis, that do not have to be economic time series. The study tries to find out which are most suitable in analyzing the time series of Indonesian economy. After all the estimation and comparison process, we finally agree that the use of those different methods must be sinchronized with the purpose of the user's study of the economic time series.
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Setiawan, Setiawan, Moch Trianto Utomo, Alfira Mulya Astuti, M. Sjahid Akbar und Imam Safawi Ahmad. „Forecasting Financial System Stability Using Vector Error Correction Model Approach“. CAUCHY 6, Nr. 3 (19.11.2020): 109–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.18860/ca.v6i3.9811.

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Indonesia is one of the developing countries whose economic system is still very dependent on other developed countries. This reliance often becomes one of the causes of the occurrence of economic turmoil sectors that interfere with financial system stability in Indonesia. Therefore, to forecast financial system stability indicators, primarily macroeconomic variables, become essential to do to provide an accurate index value. Then, Forecasting signs of stability of the financial system in Indonesia using Vector Error Correction models (VECM) approach with financial system stability indicators used are Banking Stability Inde
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Jiang, Heng, Xiao-Hua Jin und Chunlu Liu. „The effects of the late 2000s global financial crisis on Australia’s construction demand“. Construction Economics and Building 13, Nr. 3 (18.09.2013): 65–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.5130/ajceb.v13i3.3602.

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An accurate measurement of the impacts of external shocks on construction demand will enable construction industry policymakers and developers to make allowances for future occurrences and advance the construction industry in a sustainable manner. This paper aims to measurethe dynamic effects of the late 2000s global financial crisis on the level of demand in the Australian construction industry. The vector error correction (VEC) model with intervention indicators is employed to estimate the external impact from the crisis on a macro-level construction economic indicator, namely construction demand. The methodology comprises six main stages to produce appropriate VEC models that describe the characteristics of the underlying process. Research findings suggestthat overall residential and non-residential construction demand were affected significantly by the recent crisis and seasonality. Non-residentialconstruction demand was disrupted more than residential construction demand at the crisis onset. The residential constructionindustry is more reactive and is able to recover faster following the crisis in comparison with the non-residential industry. The VEC model with intervention indicators developed in this study can be used as an experiment for an advanced econometric method. This can be used to analyse the effects of special eventsand factors not only on construction but also on other industries.
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Singh, Narinder Pal, und Sugandha Sharma. „Cointegration and Causality among Dollar, Oil, Gold and Sensex across Global Financial Crisis“. Vision: The Journal of Business Perspective 22, Nr. 4 (Dezember 2018): 365–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0972262918804336.

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Over the globe, the various financial markets are becoming integrated and the linkages among variables Gold prices, Crude Oil prices, US Dollar rate and Stock market (GODS) invite a special attention of various financial analysts and investors. For an import-dependent country like India, the interplay among these variables is vital. Thus in this study, we investigate the cointegration and causality relationship among gold, crude oil, us dollar and stock market (Sensex) across the global financial crisis of 2008. We use Johansen's cointegration technique, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Vector Auto Regression (VAR), VEC Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Test and Granger Causality, and Variance Decomposition to study cointegration and strength & direction of causality for three sub-periods. Johansen's cointegration test results indicate that there is long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables in the pre-crisis and the crisis periods but not in post-crisis period. VECM results report that none of four models of the variables show long-run causality in the pre-crisis period at 5% level of significance. During the crisis period, both crude oil and Sensex models show long run causality. However, in some cases short-run causality is indicated in results. Granger causality test results show that there is one-way causality from USD and Sensex to crude oil, and from gold and Sensex to USD. Thus, we conclude that the relationship among GODS is dynamic and has been affected by global financial crisis of 2008.
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Guillermo, Benavides-Perales, Tellez-Leon Isela Elizabeth und Venegas-Martinez Francisco. „The impact of banking and external sectors on Mexican agriculture in the period 1995–2015“. Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská ekonomika) 64, No. 1 (18.01.2018): 36–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.17221/193/2016-agricecon.

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Mexican agricultural production has been characterised by a lack of dynamism in recent years and is losing ground in terms of GDP. This may reflect the lack of funding from commercial and development banks. This research aims at studying the dynamics of the agriculture sector through econometric analysis using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Vector Error Correction (VEC) models in order to examine the short- and long-run relationships among agricultural production, terms of trade (ratio of agricultural prices and general price level), agricultural exports and lending from commercial and development banks. The main empirical findings, contrary to what was expected, is that even though there was a precarious level of funding from the banking sector, credit from commercial banking was higher than that from development banking in the last decades. Further, relative prices were found to have a negative relationship with agricultural exports, showing the importance of the external sector in agriculture.
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Hapsari, Meilina Retno, Suci Astutik und Loekito Adi Soehono. „Relationship of Macroeconomics Variables in Indonesia Using Vector Error Correction Model“. Economics Development Analysis Journal 9, Nr. 4 (06.11.2020): 374–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.15294/edaj.v9i4.38662.

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This study aims to analyze the relationship between macroeconomic variables in Indonesia, namely GDP with money supply, exchange rate of rupiah to US Dollar, exports, imports and interest rates. The background problem is to analyze the best method to influence government targets or policies on economic growth by studying the relationship of macroeconomic variables. Previous studies analyzing the relationship between macroeconomic variables in Indonesia have used multiple linear regression analysis. Using VECM analysis we can find out the short-term and long-term effects on the relationship between macroeconomic variables in Indonesia. The analysis used in this study is the Vector Error Correction Model with Maximum Likelihood estimation. Based on the result, the cointegration test found that there is a long-term relationship. Based on the VECM model (3), in the short term there is a relationship between macroeconomic variables and in the long run there is a long-term causality relationship in the GDP and export models. It is expected that the Government and the Central Bank will work together cooperatively in making policies to keep control of the money supply, exchange rate of rupiah to US Dollar and interest rates to enable to stimulate the economy.
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Dissertationen zum Thema "Vector Error Correction Models (VEC)"

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Ramanauskaitė, Giedrė. „Stress testing in credit risk analysis“. Master's thesis, Lithuanian Academic Libraries Network (LABT), 2008. http://vddb.library.lt/obj/LT-eLABa-0001:E.02~2008~D_20080620_110415-38466.

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The supervising institutions do not give to commercial banks indications what models have to be used for stress testing. This research was done in order to find out which mathematical/statistical models are and can be used in credit risk stress testing. Credit risk is one of the biggest financial risks that every bank faces. Stress testing is a tool of credit risk assessment that helps to estimate the consequences of the events that have really small probability to happen but if they occur, banks can have significant losses. This study determined that the most plausible event is adverse macroeconomic conditions. For this reason, models that include macroeconomic impact were presented. Vector autoregression and vector error correction model were tested using the empirical data received from Swedish central bank, Swedish statistics and Eurostat. For financial stability it is worth using vector autoregression or vector error correction model as they describe the macroeconomic environment in the most suitable way and they are appropriate for shock analysis by showing how the impact of any factor can change the whole system. Structure: introduction, main part (credit risk, methods and empirical analysis), publication, conclusions, references. Thesis consists of: 50 p. text without appendices, 13 pictures, 11 tables, 26 bibliographical entries. Appendices included.
Kredito įstaigų priežiūros institucijos nepateikia komerciniams bankams kokius metodus jie turėtų naudoti testavime nepalankiomis sąlygomis. Tiriamasis darbas buvo atliktas tuo tikslu, kad būtų išsiaiškinta kokie matematiniai ir statistiniai metodai yra ir gali būti naudojami kredito rizikos vertinime testuojant nepalankiomis sąlygomis. Kredito rizika yra viena iš didžiausių finansinių rizikų su kuria bankai susiduria. Testavimas nepalankiomis sąlygomis yra kredito rizikos vertinimo įrankis, padedantis nustatyti įvykių, kurių realizavimosi tikimybės yra mažos, tačiau jiems įvykus, bankai patirtų reikšmingus nuostolius, pasekmes. Šis tyrimas nustatė, jog labiausiai tikėtinas įvykis gali būti ypatingai nepalankios ekonominės sąlygos. Dėl šios priežasties darbe yra pristatyti metodai, kurie įvertina makroekonominių veiksnių įtaką. Vektorinė autoregresija ir vektorinis paklaidų korekcijos modelis buvo patikrinti naudojant Švedijos centrinio banko, Švedijos statistikos departamento ir Eurostat empirinius duomenis. Finansinio stabilumo įvertinimui vertėtų naudoti vektorinį autoregresijos ar vektorinį paklaidų korekcijos modelius, nes šie modeliai geriausiai aprašo ekonominę aplinką bei yra labai tinkami šokų analizei, kadangi įvertina bet kurio veiksnio įtaką visai sistemai. Struktūra: įvadas, pagrindinė dalis (kredito rizika, metodai ir empirinė analizė), publikacija, išvados, literatūros sąrašas. Tiriamasis darbas sudarytas iš: 50 psl. teksto be priedų, 13 paveikslų, 11... [toliau žr. visą tekstą]
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Dahlberg, Magnus, und Gombrii Anders. „Vart är kronan på väg? : Utmaningen med växelkursprognoser - en jämförelse av prognosmodeller“. Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Nationalekonomiska institutionen, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-439138.

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Riksbanken har under senaste åren blivit kritiserade för deras bristande prognoser av svenska valutakurser. I denna uppsats undersöks det om slumpvandring (RW) är den mest framgångsrika prognosmodellen eller om alternativa ekonometriska prognosmodeller (AR, VAR och VECM) kan estimera framtida växelkurser mer korrekt på kort sikt, ett kvartal fram, och medellång sikt, fyra kvartal fram. I dessa prognosmodeller behandlas fem Svenska makroekonomiska variabler som endogena; KPI, BNP, arbetslöshet, 3 månaders statsobligationer (T-bonds), samt en exogen variabel, Amerikansk-BNP. Den data som används är kvartalsdata från första kvartalet 1993 till andra kvartalet 2020 för respektive variabel. Resultaten från studie visar på att RW är mer ackurat än de multivariata modellerna (VAR och VECM) på både kort sikt och medellång sikt. Residualerna utvärderas genom att kolla på rotmedelkvadratfel (RMSE) från respektive prognos.
In recent years, the Riksbank has been criticized for their underperforming forecasts of Swedish exchange rates. This thesis examines whether the random walk (RW) is the most successful forecasting model when forecasting the exchange rate (SEK / USD) or whether alternative economic forecasting models (AR, VAR and VECM) can estimate future exchange rates more accurately. Both in the short and medium term, one respectively four quarters ahead. In these forecast models, five Swedish macroeconomic variables are treated as endogenous; CPI, GDP, unemployment, three-month Treasury-bonds (T-Bonds), and an exogenous variable, US GDP. The data used is quarterly data from the first quarter of 1993 to the second quarter of 2020 for each variable. Results from the study show that RW is more accurate than the multivariate models (VAR and VECM) in both the short and medium term. The residuals are evaluated by looking at root mean square error (RMSE) from the respective forecast.
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Fonseca, Eder Lucio da. „Modelo de cointegração variando com o tempo: abordagem via ondaletas“. Universidade de São Paulo, 2017. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/45/45133/tde-26032017-175337/.

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Duas ou mais séries não estacionárias são cointegradas se existir uma relação de equilíbrio de longo prazo entre elas. Nas últimas décadas, o interesse na literatura sobre o tema cointegração aumentou de maneira expressiva. Os modelos tradicionais supõem que o vetor de cointegração não varia ao longo do tempo. Entretanto, existem evidências na literatura de que esta suposição pode ser considerada muito restritiva. Utilizando o conceito de ondaletas, propomos um modelo de correção de erros vetorial em que é permitido ao vetor de cointegração variar ao longo do tempo. Diferente de trabalhos similares, é permitido ao vetor de cointegração variar suave ou abruptamente, dependendo da família de ondaletas considerada. Experimentos de Monte Carlo foram utilizados para estudar os quantis e o poder do teste de razão de verossimilhanças entre as hipóteses de cointegração usual e a de cointegração variando com o tempo. Os experimentos sugerem que o teste possui poder contra alternativas que variam ao longo do tempo. Foi demonstrada a capacidade do modelo em lidar satisfatoriamente com séries cointegradas simuladas, que apresentavam mudança de regime para o vetor de cointegração. O modelo foi empregado ainda para testar a validade da hipótese de paridade de poder de compra entre Estados Unidos e doze países da Organização para Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Econômico (OECD): Canadá, Japão e mais dez países europeus. Assim como em trabalhos similares, foram verificadas evidências de cointegração variando com o tempo entre os países. Foram utilizados valores-p bootstrap para verificar a significância da estatística do teste.
Two or more non-stationary time series are cointegrated if there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between them. In recent decades, interest in the literature on the subject of cointegration increased expressively. Traditional models that address this issue assume that the cointegration vector does not vary over time. However, there is evidence in the literature that this assumption can be considered very restrictive. Using the concept of wavelets, we propose a vector error correction model in which is allowed to the cointegration vector vary over time. Unlike similar works, the cointegration vector is allowed to vary smoothly or abruptly, depending on the considered family of wavelets. Monte Carlo experiments were used to study the quantiles and the power of the likelihood ratio test of the hypotheses of usual cointegration versus the time-varying cointegration. The experiments suggest that the test has power against alternatives that vary over time. It was demonstrated the ability of the model to deal satisfactorily with simulated cointegrated series, which presented regime change for the cointegration vector. The model was also used to test the validity of the Purchasing Power Parity hypothesis between United States and twelve countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD): Canada, Japan and ten other European countries. As in similar works, evidence of time-varying cointegration was verified among countries. Bootstrap p-values were used to verify the significance of the likelihood ratio of the test.
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Sharp, Gary David. „Lag length selection for vector error correction models“. Thesis, Rhodes University, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002808.

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This thesis investigates the problem of model identification in a Vector Autoregressive framework. The study reviews the existing research, conducts an extensive simulation based analysis of thirteen information theoretic criterion (IC), one of which is a novel derivation. The simulation exercise considers the evaluation of seven alternative error restricted vector autoregressive models with four different lag lengths. Alternative sample sizes and parameterisations are also evaluated and compared to results in the existing literature. The results of the comparative analysis provide strong support for the efficiency based criterion of Akaike and in particular the selection capability of the novel criterion, referred to as a modified corrected Akaike information criterion, demonstrates useful finite sample properties.
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Silber, Frank. „Makroökonometrische Anpassungsanalyse im Vector-Error-Correction-Model (VECM) : Untersuchungen an ausgewählten Arbeitsmärkten /“. Frankfurt am Main: Lang, 2003. http://www.gbv.de/dms/zbw/362076561.pdf.

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Meki, Brian. „Examining long-run relationships of the BRICS stock market indices to identify opportunities for implementation of statistical arbitrage strategies“. Thesis, University of the Western Cape, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/11394/4348.

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>Magister Scientiae - MSc
Purpose:This research investigates the existence of long-term equilibrium relationships among the stock market indices of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). It further investigates cointegrated stock pairs for possible implementation of statistical arbitrage trading techniques.Design:We utilize standard multivariate time series analysis procedures to inspect unit roots to assess stationarity of the series. Thereafter, cointegration is tested by the Johansen and Juselius (1990) procedure and the variables are interpreted by a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Statistical arbitrage is investigated through the pairs trading technique.Findings:The five stock indices are found to be cointegrated. Analysis shows that the cointegration rank among the variables is significantly influenced by structural breaks. Two pairs of stock variables are also found to be cointegrated. This guaranteed the mean reversion property necessary for the successful execution of the pairs trading technique. Determining the optimal spread threshold also proved to be highly significant with respect to the success of this trading technique.Value:This research seeks to expand on the literature covering long-run co-movements of the volatile emerging market indices. Based on the cointegration relation shared by the BRICS, the research also seeks to encourage risk taking when investing. We achieve this by showing the potential rewards that can be realized through employing appropriate statistical arbitrage trading techniques in these markets.
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Mvita, Mpinda Freddy. „The impact of dividend policy on shareholders' wealth : evidence from the Vector Error Correction Model“. Diss., University of Pretoria, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/2263/31010.

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Dividend policy is widely researched in financial management, but determining whether it affects the market price per share is difficult. There has been much published on the subject, which presented theories such as the Modigliani, Miller, Gordon, Lintner, Walter and Richardson propositions and the relevance and irrelevance theories. However, little research has been done on the impact of dividend policy on shareholders’ wealth while considering the short- and long-run effects. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was used to describe the short-run and long-run dynamics or the adjustment of the cointegrated variables towards their equilibrium values in South Africa. This study attempts to explain the effect of dividend policy on the market price per share. A sample of 46 companies listed on the Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE) was selected for the period 1995-2010. Three variables were used, namely the market price per share, the dividend per share and the earnings per share. The market price per share was used as a proxy in measuring shareholders’ wealth and the dividend per share was used as a proxy in measuring the dividend policy. Fixed and random effects models were applied to panel data to determine the relation between dividend policy and market price per share. The fixed effects method was used to control the stable characteristics of the companies over a fixed period. The random effects model was applied when the companies’ characteristics differed. Results for both models indicated that dividend yield is positively related to market price per share, while earnings per share do not have a significant impact on the market price per share. To test the strength of the long-run relationship, the VECM was applied. The coefficient for dividend per share in the co-integrating equation was positive, while the coefficient for earnings per share was negative. This confirms previous research findings. The results suggest that there is a long-run relationship between dividend per share and market price per share. The Granger causality test indicates there is bi-directional Granger causality between market price per share and dividend per share in South Africa. Therefore dividend policy does have a significant long-run impact on the share price and therefore provides a signal about the company’s financial success.
Dissertation (MCom)--University of Pretoria, 2012.
Financial Management
Unrestricted
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Prepic, Asmir. „Modelling and Forecast Swedish Electricity Consumption: A Comparison With Vector Error Correction Models“. Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Statistiska institutionen, 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-256875.

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Jang, Kyungho. „Three essays on structural vector error correction models with short-run and long-run restrictions“. The Ohio State University, 2002. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1266069553.

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Hadad, Junior Eli. „Um estudo econométrico do consumo e da renda agregados no Brasil“. Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie, 2011. http://tede.mackenzie.br/jspui/handle/tede/534.

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Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-15T19:25:37Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Eli Hadad Junior.pdf: 290403 bytes, checksum: 413b010b2b66c535b71df800b9626c61 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-08-10
The dissertation analyzes data of the Brazilian household consumption and income between the years 1947 and 2009. The study aims to evaluate to what extent the aggregate consumption of Brazilian household may approximate be a random walk. The dissertation uses Johansen's cointegration techniques (1988, 1991) and super exogeneity tests as proposed by Engle and Hendry et al. (1983). The dissertation attempts to evaluate whether interventions that affect consumption will impact the dynamics of aggregate income. These interventions can occur through credit policies and tax changes, among other macroeconomic shocks. Finally, a decomposition is made following the methodology proposed by Gonzalo-Granger (1995) and evaluating the importance of shocks in permanent and temporary changes in consumption.
A dissertação analisa os dados de consumo e renda das famílias brasileiras entre os anos de 1947 e 2009. O trabalho visa avaliar em que medida o consumo agregado das famílias brasileiras pode ser bem aproximando a partir de um passeio aleatório puro. O trabalho utiliza técnicas de cointegração de Johansen (1988, 1991) e testes de super exogeneidade na forma proposta por Hendry, Engle et al. (1983). A dissertação procura avaliar se intervenções que afetam o consumo das famílias geram impacto na dinâmica da renda agregada das mesmas. Tais intervenções podem ser por políticas de crédito, alterações tributárias, choque macroeconômicos entre outras. Por fim uma decomposição entre fatores permanentes e transitórios será feita pela metodologia proposta por Gonzalo-Granger (1995) com o objetivo de avaliar-se a importância dos choques permanentes e transitórios para as variações do consumo.
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Bücher zum Thema "Vector Error Correction Models (VEC)"

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Makroökonometrische Anpassungsanalyse im Vector-Error-Correction-Model (VECM): Untersuchungen an ausgewählten Arbeitsmarkten. Frankfurt am Main: P. Lang, 2003.

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Anderson, Richard G. Analysis of panel vector error correction models using maximum likelihood, the bootstrap, and canonical-correlation estimators. St. Louis, Mo.]: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2006.

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S, Madheswaran, und Institute for Social and Economic Change, Hrsg. Casuality between energy consumption and output growth in Indian cement industry: An application of panel vector error correction model. Bangalore: Institute for Social and Economic Change, 2010.

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4

Babeshko, Lyudmila, und Irina Orlova. Econometrics and econometric modeling in Excel and R. ru: INFRA-M Academic Publishing LLC., 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/1079837.

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The textbook includes topics of modern econometrics, often used in economic research. Some aspects of multiple regression models related to the problem of multicollinearity and models with a discrete dependent variable are considered, including methods for their estimation, analysis, and application. A significant place is given to the analysis of models of one-dimensional and multidimensional time series. Modern ideas about the deterministic and stochastic nature of the trend are considered. Methods of statistical identification of the trend type are studied. Attention is paid to the evaluation, analysis, and practical implementation of Box — Jenkins stationary time series models, as well as multidimensional time series models: vector autoregressive models and vector error correction models. It includes basic econometric models for panel data that have been widely used in recent decades, as well as formal tests for selecting models based on their hierarchical structure. Each section provides examples of evaluating, analyzing, and testing models in the R software environment. Meets the requirements of the Federal state educational standards of higher education of the latest generation. It is addressed to master's students studying in the Field of Economics, the curriculum of which includes the disciplines Econometrics (advanced course)", "Econometric modeling", "Econometric research", and graduate students."
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Potential impact of the Sixth Five Year Plan on the relationship among exports, imports, remittances, and economic growth in Bangladesh: A vector error correction modeling analysis. 2011.

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Pevehouse, Jon, und Jason D. Brozek. Time‐Series Analysis. Herausgegeben von Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier, Henry E. Brady und David Collier. Oxford University Press, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199286546.003.0019.

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This article discusses time-series methods such as simple time-series regressions, ARIMA models, vector autoregression (VAR) models, and unit root and error correction models (ECM). It specifically presents a brief history of time-series analysis before moving to a review of the basic time-series model. It then describes the stationary models in univariate and multivariate analyses. The nonstationary models of each type are addressed. In addition, various issues regarding the analysis of time series including data aggregation and temporal stability are considered. Before concluding, the article briefly reports the time-series techniques in the context of panel data. In general, time-series analysis can help improve the understanding of the political world.
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Buchteile zum Thema "Vector Error Correction Models (VEC)"

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Lütkepohl, Helmut. „Vector Error Correction Models“. In New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis, 237–67. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-27752-1_6.

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Lütkepohl, Helmut. „Estimation of Vector Error Correction Models“. In New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis, 269–324. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-27752-1_7.

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Labuschagne, Coenraad C. A., Niel Oberholzer und Pierre J. Venter. „A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) of FTSE/JSE SA Listed Property Index and FTSE/JSE SA Capped Property Index“. In Advances in Panel Data Analysis in Applied Economic Research, 95–111. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-70055-7_8.

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Bhowmik, Debesh. „Econometric Analysis of India's Foreign Direct Investment Inflows“. In Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) and Opportunities for Developing Economies in the World Market, 248–75. IGI Global, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-5225-3026-8.ch012.

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In this chapter, the author explains the trend lines, random walk, stationary, structural breaks, and volatility of FDI inflows in India during 1971-2015. Both log linear and exponential trends are significant. FDI inflows are stationary and showed four structural breaks in 1985, 1994, 2000, and 2006. The author found the relation among FDI inflows, growth rate, interest rate, inflation rate, exchange rate, fiscal deficit, external debt, and trade openness with the help of Granger causality, Johansen cointegration test, and vector error correction models. Trace statistic has four cointegrating equations, and Max Eigen statistic has three cointegrating equations. The speed of the vector error correction process is more or less slow except for change in interest rate and change in inflation rate, which are significant where VECM is stable and diverging. Limitations and future scope of research is added. Policy recommendations are also included.
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Lütkepohl, Helmut. „Vector Autoregressive and Vector Error Correction Models“. In Applied Time Series Econometrics, 86–158. Cambridge University Press, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511606885.004.

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Ozer, Mustafa, und A. Erinç Yeldan. „The Relationship between Current Account Deficits and Unemployment in Turkey“. In Handbook of Research on Comparative Economic Development Perspectives on Europe and the MENA Region, 492–510. IGI Global, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-4666-9548-1.ch020.

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In this chapter, we test the nature of the variety of empirical relationships between current account deficits and unemployment in Turkey over 2000Q1–2012Q1. Our working hypothesis in this paper is that the meager job creation in Turkey over 2000s is the direct symptom of a speculative-led growth environment (Grabel, 1995) together with an excessively open and unregulated capital account in the age of relatively cheap and abundant global finance. Based on the vector error correction model (VECM), we found that there is a unidirectional causality running from current account deficits to unemployment. Both Impulse Response and Variance Decomposition analyses are quite consistent with results of VECM. We interpret these findings as evidence of the structural characteristics of unemployment, reflected in output elasticities, being embedded under the deepening external fragility of the Turkish economy over the 2000s.
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Mills, Terence C. „Vector Autoregressions With Integrated Variables, Vector Error Correction Models, and Common Trends“. In Applied Time Series Analysis, 255–79. Elsevier, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-12-813117-6.00015-6.

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Naser, Hanan. „The Economic and Environmental Impact of Large Financial Developments in an Oil-Dependent Economy“. In Handbook of Research on Creating Sustainable Value in the Global Economy, 221–40. IGI Global, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-7998-1196-1.ch013.

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This study examines the economic and environmental impact of large financial developments in Bahrain from year 2006 to 2016. To do so, the relationship between energy consumption, oil prices, market shares, dividend yields, and economic growth has been investigated using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The key findings are summarized as follow: (1) Long run relationship exists between the suggested variables. (2) Both energy and financial markets are significant in the long run relationship, and positively affect the economic growth of Bahrain. (3) According to the estimated ECM term, the model is stable in the short run. (4) Decline in oil price has negative significant drawback on the economic growth of Bahrain. Accordingly, it is recommended that policy makers in Bahrain focuses on implement strong strategies that aim at encouraging investments in non-oil sectors without impeding energy sector or economic growth in order to move towards sustainability.
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Mukherjee, Sovik. „Anatomy and Significance of Public Healthcare Expenditure and Economic Growth Nexus in India“. In Social, Health, and Environmental Infrastructures for Economic Growth, 120–44. IGI Global, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-5225-2364-2.ch007.

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The objective of this chapter is to take a closer look at the liaison between the two focus variables viz. growth and public healthcare expenditure, and the associated implications for public health infrastructure development. Initially, a theoretical model has been proposed which brings out the link between the focus variables. Panel cointegration and causality are the techniques applied in a Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VECM) set-up using panel data from 1980-2015. Next, a health infrastructure index has been constructed using the Euclidean distance function approach for India for two time points i.e. 2005-06 and 2014-15, to evaluate the interstate performance in public healthcare infrastructure. The findings validate the existence of a cointegrated relationship between health expenditure and economic growth coupled with a bidirectional causality linking the focus variables in this model. It comes to a close by highlighting the policy implications and the future research possibilities in this regard.
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Mukherjee, Sovik. „Anatomy and Significance of Public Healthcare Expenditure and Economic Growth Nexus in India“. In Health Economics and Healthcare Reform, 122–45. IGI Global, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-5225-3168-5.ch008.

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The objective of this chapter is to take a closer look at the liaison between the two focus variables viz. growth and public healthcare expenditure, and the associated implications for public health infrastructure development. Initially, a theoretical model has been proposed which brings out the link between the focus variables. Panel cointegration and causality are the techniques applied in a Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VECM) set-up using panel data from 1980-2015. Next, a health infrastructure index has been constructed using the Euclidean distance function approach for India for two time points i.e. 2005-06 and 2014-15, to evaluate the interstate performance in public healthcare infrastructure. The findings validate the existence of a cointegrated relationship between health expenditure and economic growth coupled with a bidirectional causality linking the focus variables in this model. It comes to a close by highlighting the policy implications and the future research possibilities in this regard.
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Konferenzberichte zum Thema "Vector Error Correction Models (VEC)"

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Xiong Jiping und Wu Ping. „An Analysis of Forecasting Model of Crude Oil Demand Based on Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Model (VEC)“. In 2008 International Seminar on Business and Information Management (ISBIM 2008). IEEE, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/isbim.2008.97.

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Suharsono, Agus, Auliya Aziza und Wara Pramesti. „Comparison of vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction models (VECM) for index of ASEAN stock price“. In INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE AND WORKSHOP ON MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS AND ITS APPLICATIONS (ICWOMAA 2017). Author(s), 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.5016666.

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Elmas, Bekir, und Ömer Esen. „Determining a Dynamic Relationship Between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: An Empirical Study on Eurasia“. In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c01.00168.

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The stock price has a close relationship with some macroeconomic variables. As examples of the main macroeconomic variables can be shown that exchange rates, inflation, interest rate, growth rates. This paper empirically examined the relationship between the local stock market indexes and exchange rate (USD) in six Eurasian countries namely Turkey, Germany, France, Netherlands, Russia, France and India. The paper set out by testing existence of a long-term relationship between considered two variables using the Engle-Granger (1987), Johansen (1988, 1995) and Johansen-Juselius (1990) cointegration methods. Results of Engle- Granger cointegration test showed that there is no cointegration linkage between two variables under consideration. Furthermore, The Johansen cointegration test found that there is a long-term relationship between two variables (variables in the two countries). Under the VAR (Vector Autoregressive) and VEC (Vector Error Correction) models appllied the Granger causality test, revealed an unidirectional casual relationship between two variables in each of the six countries. In addition as regards the relationship While there is a unidirectional causal relationship running from exchange rate to stock market for four countries. However this relation is casual running from stock market to exchange rate for other two countries. According to the direction of the relationship these results that relationship between stock prices and exchange rate in four countries supports for the “Traditional Approach”. Furthermore, this relation also supports for the “Portfolio Approach” for other two countries.
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Asnawi, Asnawi, Naufal Bachri, Rasyidin Rasyidin und Aiyub Aiyub. „The Revenue and Regional Expenditure in Aceh Province: Vector Error Correction (VEC) Approach“. In Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Finance Economics and Business, ICOFEB 2018, 12-13 November 2018, Lhokseumawe, Aceh, Indonesia. EAI, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.4108/eai.12-11-2018.2288824.

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Lestari, Reni. „Analysis of Stock Market Integration Among ASEAN Countries by Using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Approach“. In Japan International Business and Management Research Conference. RSF Press & RESEARCH SYNERGY FOUNDATION, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.31098/jibm.v1i1.220.

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Globalization has driven the economy of countries to relate to each other. It brings relationships in the capital among countries in the world, especially in ASEAN region countries. This study aimed to analyze the integration of the stock market among countries in the ASEAN region. The stock market was analyzed are the Indonesia Stock Exchange, Malaysia Stock Exchange, Singapore Stock Exchange, Thailand Stock Exchange, Vietnam Stock Exchange, and Philippine Stock Exchange. This study using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) as the method. The result of this study shows that, in the long term Singapore Stock Index (STI), Malaysia Stock Index (KLSE), Philippines (PSEi), and Indonesia Stock Index (JKSE) are positively correlated. This means the change of stock index price in one country will affect other related countries in the long term. In the short term of VECM estimation, found the Vietnam Stock Index (VNI), Singapore Stock Exchange (STI), Philippine (PSEi) are positively correlated and negatively correlated with Thailand Stock Exchange (SET). For the managerial implication, the result of this study is expected as a reference or basis of consideration of investment decisions. This because long-term stock market movements are important because they impact international portfolio management and risk diversification.
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Karn, Arodh Lal, und Rakshha Kumari Karna. „Supply line engineering on importation and exportation: bimstec perspective“. In Contemporary Issues in Business, Management and Economics Engineering. Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/cibmee.2019.016.

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Purpose – the purpose of this paper is to investigate whether supply line engineering strategies of goods and service exports, exports transport services and export time have a significant impact on GDP growth of BIMSTEC countries or not. Research methodology – the study employed a panel vector error correction model (VECM) instead of loose VAR to examine the short and long-run relationship among the selected indicators and GDP growth. Findings – in the long-run, the time of export negatively and suggestively associate with GDP. Conversely, VECM based Granger causality test signposted that in short-run only unidirectional causality running from goods and service exports (GSE), trade duration like exports time (ET) toward GDP and for the rest of the variables no causality found. Research limitations – this study is contextualized only on Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand. Practical implications – to investigate the current position of the link between supply line logistics strategies and economic growth by using annual data for the period of 1980 to 2014 and possible weaknesses and logistics presence. Originality/Value – this paper is an attempt, first of its kind, to fill up this shortfall, to estimate the relationship of exports transport services, exports time, and goods and services exports with GDP growth of BIMSTEC countries.
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Algan, Neşe, Başak Gül Aktakas und İpek Tekin. „The Relationship between Corruption and Economic Growth as a Social Issue: A Case Study on Turkey“. In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c05.00996.

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The present study aims to investigate the relationship between corruption and economic growth by taking the driving force of education into account. A significant contribution of the education level to the reduction process of corruption is expected to occur. For this reason, the number of those who are convicted of corruption offenses depending on their educational status for Turkey are to be taken into account, whereas the effect of education being a separate variable on growth and corruption will not be considered. In this regard, Vector Error Correction (VECM) model will be used as a method for the years between 1980-2011 and the relationship between corruption and economic growth will be analyzed. The contribution of the study to the literature is to reveal the impact of those who cause corruption depending on their education level on growth by undertaking the education levels separately. According to the empirical findings, considering corruption convicts who are literate but not graduated from a school and those having graduated from primary and secondary education, it was observed that corruption affects growth in a negative way. In contrast, given the corruption crimes which were committed by the graduates of both high school and vocational school at high school level and higher education, it was determined that there is a positive relationship between corruption and economic growth.
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Berichte der Organisationen zum Thema "Vector Error Correction Models (VEC)"

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Hoffman, Dennis, und Robert H. Rasche. STLS/US-VECM 6.1: A Vector Error-Correction Forecasting Model of the US Economy. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 1997. http://dx.doi.org/10.20955/wp.1997.008.

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Anderson, Richard G., Hailong Qian und Robert H. Rasche. Analysis of Panel Vector Error Correction Models Using Maximum Likelihood, the Bootstrap, and Canonical Correlation Estimators. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.20955/wp.2006.050.

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