Dissertationen zum Thema „Vector Error Correction Models (VEC)“

The supervising institutions do not give to commercial banks indications what models have to be used for stress testing. This research was done in order to find out which mathematical/statistical models are and can be used in credit risk stress testing. Credit risk is one of the biggest financial risks that every bank faces. Stress testing is a tool of credit risk assessment that helps to estimate the consequences of the events that have really small probability to happen but if they occur, banks can have significant losses. This study determined that the most plausible event is adverse macroeconomic conditions. For this reason, models that include macroeconomic impact were presented. Vector autoregression and vector error correction model were tested using the empirical data received from Swedish central bank, Swedish statistics and Eurostat. For financial stability it is worth using vector autoregression or vector error correction model as they describe the macroeconomic environment in the most suitable way and they are appropriate for shock analysis by showing how the impact of any factor can change the whole system. Structure: introduction, main part (credit risk, methods and empirical analysis), publication, conclusions, references. Thesis consists of: 50 p. text without appendices, 13 pictures, 11 tables, 26 bibliographical entries. Appendices included.
Kredito įstaigų priežiūros institucijos nepateikia komerciniams bankams kokius metodus jie turėtų naudoti testavime nepalankiomis sąlygomis. Tiriamasis darbas buvo atliktas tuo tikslu, kad būtų išsiaiškinta kokie matematiniai ir statistiniai metodai yra ir gali būti naudojami kredito rizikos vertinime testuojant nepalankiomis sąlygomis. Kredito rizika yra viena iš didžiausių finansinių rizikų su kuria bankai susiduria. Testavimas nepalankiomis sąlygomis yra kredito rizikos vertinimo įrankis, padedantis nustatyti įvykių, kurių realizavimosi tikimybės yra mažos, tačiau jiems įvykus, bankai patirtų reikšmingus nuostolius, pasekmes. Šis tyrimas nustatė, jog labiausiai tikėtinas įvykis gali būti ypatingai nepalankios ekonominės sąlygos. Dėl šios priežasties darbe yra pristatyti metodai, kurie įvertina makroekonominių veiksnių įtaką. Vektorinė autoregresija ir vektorinis paklaidų korekcijos modelis buvo patikrinti naudojant Švedijos centrinio banko, Švedijos statistikos departamento ir Eurostat empirinius duomenis. Finansinio stabilumo įvertinimui vertėtų naudoti vektorinį autoregresijos ar vektorinį paklaidų korekcijos modelius, nes šie modeliai geriausiai aprašo ekonominę aplinką bei yra labai tinkami šokų analizei, kadangi įvertina bet kurio veiksnio įtaką visai sistemai. Struktūra: įvadas, pagrindinė dalis (kredito rizika, metodai ir empirinė analizė), publikacija, išvados, literatūros sąrašas. Tiriamasis darbas sudarytas iš: 50 psl. teksto be priedų, 13 paveikslų, 11... [toliau žr. visą tekstą]

Riksbanken har under senaste åren blivit kritiserade för deras bristande prognoser av svenska valutakurser. I denna uppsats undersöks det om slumpvandring (RW) är den mest framgångsrika prognosmodellen eller om alternativa ekonometriska prognosmodeller (AR, VAR och VECM) kan estimera framtida växelkurser mer korrekt på kort sikt, ett kvartal fram, och medellång sikt, fyra kvartal fram. I dessa prognosmodeller behandlas fem Svenska makroekonomiska variabler som endogena; KPI, BNP, arbetslöshet, 3 månaders statsobligationer (T-bonds), samt en exogen variabel, Amerikansk-BNP. Den data som används är kvartalsdata från första kvartalet 1993 till andra kvartalet 2020 för respektive variabel. Resultaten från studie visar på att RW är mer ackurat än de multivariata modellerna (VAR och VECM) på både kort sikt och medellång sikt. Residualerna utvärderas genom att kolla på rotmedelkvadratfel (RMSE) från respektive prognos.
In recent years, the Riksbank has been criticized for their underperforming forecasts of Swedish exchange rates. This thesis examines whether the random walk (RW) is the most successful forecasting model when forecasting the exchange rate (SEK / USD) or whether alternative economic forecasting models (AR, VAR and VECM) can estimate future exchange rates more accurately. Both in the short and medium term, one respectively four quarters ahead. In these forecast models, five Swedish macroeconomic variables are treated as endogenous; CPI, GDP, unemployment, three-month Treasury-bonds (T-Bonds), and an exogenous variable, US GDP. The data used is quarterly data from the first quarter of 1993 to the second quarter of 2020 for each variable. Results from the study show that RW is more accurate than the multivariate models (VAR and VECM) in both the short and medium term. The residuals are evaluated by looking at root mean square error (RMSE) from the respective forecast.

Duas ou mais séries não estacionárias são cointegradas se existir uma relação de equilíbrio de longo prazo entre elas. Nas últimas décadas, o interesse na literatura sobre o tema cointegração aumentou de maneira expressiva. Os modelos tradicionais supõem que o vetor de cointegração não varia ao longo do tempo. Entretanto, existem evidências na literatura de que esta suposição pode ser considerada muito restritiva. Utilizando o conceito de ondaletas, propomos um modelo de correção de erros vetorial em que é permitido ao vetor de cointegração variar ao longo do tempo. Diferente de trabalhos similares, é permitido ao vetor de cointegração variar suave ou abruptamente, dependendo da família de ondaletas considerada. Experimentos de Monte Carlo foram utilizados para estudar os quantis e o poder do teste de razão de verossimilhanças entre as hipóteses de cointegração usual e a de cointegração variando com o tempo. Os experimentos sugerem que o teste possui poder contra alternativas que variam ao longo do tempo. Foi demonstrada a capacidade do modelo em lidar satisfatoriamente com séries cointegradas simuladas, que apresentavam mudança de regime para o vetor de cointegração. O modelo foi empregado ainda para testar a validade da hipótese de paridade de poder de compra entre Estados Unidos e doze países da Organização para Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Econômico (OECD): Canadá, Japão e mais dez países europeus. Assim como em trabalhos similares, foram verificadas evidências de cointegração variando com o tempo entre os países. Foram utilizados valores-p bootstrap para verificar a significância da estatística do teste.
Two or more non-stationary time series are cointegrated if there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between them. In recent decades, interest in the literature on the subject of cointegration increased expressively. Traditional models that address this issue assume that the cointegration vector does not vary over time. However, there is evidence in the literature that this assumption can be considered very restrictive. Using the concept of wavelets, we propose a vector error correction model in which is allowed to the cointegration vector vary over time. Unlike similar works, the cointegration vector is allowed to vary smoothly or abruptly, depending on the considered family of wavelets. Monte Carlo experiments were used to study the quantiles and the power of the likelihood ratio test of the hypotheses of usual cointegration versus the time-varying cointegration. The experiments suggest that the test has power against alternatives that vary over time. It was demonstrated the ability of the model to deal satisfactorily with simulated cointegrated series, which presented regime change for the cointegration vector. The model was also used to test the validity of the Purchasing Power Parity hypothesis between United States and twelve countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD): Canada, Japan and ten other European countries. As in similar works, evidence of time-varying cointegration was verified among countries. Bootstrap p-values were used to verify the significance of the likelihood ratio of the test.

This thesis investigates the problem of model identification in a Vector Autoregressive framework. The study reviews the existing research, conducts an extensive simulation based analysis of thirteen information theoretic criterion (IC), one of which is a novel derivation. The simulation exercise considers the evaluation of seven alternative error restricted vector autoregressive models with four different lag lengths. Alternative sample sizes and parameterisations are also evaluated and compared to results in the existing literature. The results of the comparative analysis provide strong support for the efficiency based criterion of Akaike and in particular the selection capability of the novel criterion, referred to as a modified corrected Akaike information criterion, demonstrates useful finite sample properties.

>Magister Scientiae - MSc
Purpose:This research investigates the existence of long-term equilibrium relationships among the stock market indices of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). It further investigates cointegrated stock pairs for possible implementation of statistical arbitrage trading techniques.Design:We utilize standard multivariate time series analysis procedures to inspect unit roots to assess stationarity of the series. Thereafter, cointegration is tested by the Johansen and Juselius (1990) procedure and the variables are interpreted by a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Statistical arbitrage is investigated through the pairs trading technique.Findings:The five stock indices are found to be cointegrated. Analysis shows that the cointegration rank among the variables is significantly influenced by structural breaks. Two pairs of stock variables are also found to be cointegrated. This guaranteed the mean reversion property necessary for the successful execution of the pairs trading technique. Determining the optimal spread threshold also proved to be highly significant with respect to the success of this trading technique.Value:This research seeks to expand on the literature covering long-run co-movements of the volatile emerging market indices. Based on the cointegration relation shared by the BRICS, the research also seeks to encourage risk taking when investing. We achieve this by showing the potential rewards that can be realized through employing appropriate statistical arbitrage trading techniques in these markets.

Dividend policy is widely researched in financial management, but determining whether it affects the market price per share is difficult. There has been much published on the subject, which presented theories such as the Modigliani, Miller, Gordon, Lintner, Walter and Richardson propositions and the relevance and irrelevance theories. However, little research has been done on the impact of dividend policy on shareholders’ wealth while considering the short- and long-run effects. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was used to describe the short-run and long-run dynamics or the adjustment of the cointegrated variables towards their equilibrium values in South Africa. This study attempts to explain the effect of dividend policy on the market price per share. A sample of 46 companies listed on the Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE) was selected for the period 1995-2010. Three variables were used, namely the market price per share, the dividend per share and the earnings per share. The market price per share was used as a proxy in measuring shareholders’ wealth and the dividend per share was used as a proxy in measuring the dividend policy. Fixed and random effects models were applied to panel data to determine the relation between dividend policy and market price per share. The fixed effects method was used to control the stable characteristics of the companies over a fixed period. The random effects model was applied when the companies’ characteristics differed. Results for both models indicated that dividend yield is positively related to market price per share, while earnings per share do not have a significant impact on the market price per share. To test the strength of the long-run relationship, the VECM was applied. The coefficient for dividend per share in the co-integrating equation was positive, while the coefficient for earnings per share was negative. This confirms previous research findings. The results suggest that there is a long-run relationship between dividend per share and market price per share. The Granger causality test indicates there is bi-directional Granger causality between market price per share and dividend per share in South Africa. Therefore dividend policy does have a significant long-run impact on the share price and therefore provides a signal about the company’s financial success.
Dissertation (MCom)--University of Pretoria, 2012.
Financial Management
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The dissertation analyzes data of the Brazilian household consumption and income between the years 1947 and 2009. The study aims to evaluate to what extent the aggregate consumption of Brazilian household may approximate be a random walk. The dissertation uses Johansen's cointegration techniques (1988, 1991) and super exogeneity tests as proposed by Engle and Hendry et al. (1983). The dissertation attempts to evaluate whether interventions that affect consumption will impact the dynamics of aggregate income. These interventions can occur through credit policies and tax changes, among other macroeconomic shocks. Finally, a decomposition is made following the methodology proposed by Gonzalo-Granger (1995) and evaluating the importance of shocks in permanent and temporary changes in consumption.
A dissertação analisa os dados de consumo e renda das famílias brasileiras entre os anos de 1947 e 2009. O trabalho visa avaliar em que medida o consumo agregado das famílias brasileiras pode ser bem aproximando a partir de um passeio aleatório puro. O trabalho utiliza técnicas de cointegração de Johansen (1988, 1991) e testes de super exogeneidade na forma proposta por Hendry, Engle et al. (1983). A dissertação procura avaliar se intervenções que afetam o consumo das famílias geram impacto na dinâmica da renda agregada das mesmas. Tais intervenções podem ser por políticas de crédito, alterações tributárias, choque macroeconômicos entre outras. Por fim uma decomposição entre fatores permanentes e transitórios será feita pela metodologia proposta por Gonzalo-Granger (1995) com o objetivo de avaliar-se a importância dos choques permanentes e transitórios para as variações do consumo.

Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2013.
A persistent problem for hedge fund researchers presents itself in the form of inconsistent and diverse style classifications within and across database providers. For this paper, single-manager hedge funds from the Hedge Fund Research (HFR) and Hedgefund.Net (HFN) databases were classified on the basis of a common factor, extracted using the factor axis methodology. It was assumed that the returns of all sample hedge funds are attributable to a common factor that is shared across hedge funds within one classification, and a specific factor that is unique to a particular hedge fund. In contrast to earlier research and the application of principal component analysis, factor axis has sought to determine how much of the covariance in the dataset is due to common factors (communality). Factor axis largely ignores the diagonal elements of the covariance matrix and orthogonal factor rotation maximises the covariance between hedge fund return series. In an iterative framework, common factors were extracted until all return series were described by one common and one specific factor. Prior to factor extraction, the series was tested for autoregressive moving-average processes and the residuals of such models were used in further analysis to improve upon squared correlations as initial factor estimates. The methodology was applied to 120 ten-year rolling estimation windows in the July 1990 to June 2010 timeframe. The results indicate that the number of distinct style classifications is reduced in comparison to the arbitrary self-selected classifications of the databases. Single manager hedge funds were grouped in portfolios on the basis of the common factor they share. In contrast to other classification methodologies, these common factor portfolios (CFPs) assume that some unspecified individual component of the hedge fund constituents’ returns is diversified away and that single manager hedge funds should be classified according to their common return components. From the CFPs of single manager hedge funds, pure style indices were created to be entered in a multivariate autoregressive framework. For each style index, a Vector Error Correction model (VECM) was estimated to determine the short-term as well as co-integrating relationship of the hedge fund series with the index level series of a stock, bond and commodity proxy. It was postulated that a) in a well-diversified portfolio, the current level of the hedge fund index is independent of the lagged observations from the other asset indices; and b) if the assumptions of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) hold, it is expected that the predictive power of the model will be low. The analysis was conducted for the July 2000 - June 2010 period. Impulse response tests and variance decomposition revealed that changes in hedge fund index levels are partially induced by changes in the stock, bond and currency markets. Investors are therefore cautioned not to overemphasise the diversification benefits of hedge fund investments. Commodity trading advisors (CTAs) / managed futures, on the other hand, deliver diversification benefits when integrated with an existing portfolio. The results indicated that single manager hedge funds can be reliably classified using the principal factor axis methodology. Continuously re-balanced pure style index representations of these classifications could be used in further analysis. Extensive multivariate analysis revealed that CTAs and macro hedge funds offer superior diversification benefits in the context of existing portfolios. The empirical results are of interest not only to academic researchers, but also practitioners seeking to replicate the methodologies presented.

Tourism is currently the third largest industry within South Africa. Many African countries, including South Africa, have the potential to achieve increased economic growth and development with the aid of the tourism sector. As tourism is a great earner of foreign exchange and also creates employment opportunities, especially low–skilled employment, it is identified as a sector that can aid developing countries to increase economic growth and development. Accurate forecasting of tourism demand is important due to the perishable nature of tourism products and services. Little research on forecasting tourism demand in South Africa can be found. The aim of this study is to forecast tourism demand (international tourist arrivals) to South Africa by making use of different causal models and to compare the forecasting accuracy of the causal models used. Accurate forecasts of tourism demand may assist policy–makers and business concerns with decisions regarding future investment and employment. An overview of South African tourism trends indicates that although domestic arrivals surpass foreign arrivals in terms of volume, foreign arrivals spend more in South Africa than domestic tourists. It was also established that tourist arrivals from Africa (including the Middle East), form the largest market of international tourist arrivals to South Africa. Africa is, however, not included in the empirical analysis mainly due to data limitations. All the other markets namely Asia, Australasia, Europe, North America, South America and the United Kingdom are included as origin markets for the empirical analysis and this study therefore focuses on intercontinental tourism demand for South Africa. A review of the literature identified several determinants of tourist arrivals, including income, relative prices, transport cost, climate, supply–side factors, health risks, political stability as well as terrorism and crime. Most researchers used tourist arrivals/departures or tourist spending/receipts as dependent variables in empirical tourism demand studies. The first approach used to forecast tourism demand is a single equation approach, more specifically an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model. This relationship between the explanatory variables and the dependent variable was then used to ex post forecast tourism demand for South Africa from the six markets identified earlier. Secondly, a system of equation approach, more specifically a Vector Autoregressive Model and Vector Error Correction Model were estimated for each of the identified six markets. An impulse response analysis was undertaken to determine the effect of shocks in the explanatory variables on tourism demand using the Vector Error Correction Model. It was established that it takes on average three years for the effect on tourism demand to disappear. A variance decomposition analysis was also done using the Vector Error Correction Model to determine how each variable affects the percentage forecast variance of a certain variable. It was found that income plays an important role in explaining the percentage forecast variance of almost every variable. The Vector Autoregressive Model was used to estimate the short–run relationship between the variables and to ex post forecast tourism demand to South Africa from the six identified markets. The results showed that enhanced marketing can be done in origin markets with a growing GDP in order to attract more arrivals from those areas due to the high elasticity of the real GDP per capita in the long run and its positive impact on tourist arrivals. It is mainly up to the origin countries to increase their income per capita. Focussing on infrastructure development and maintenance could contribute to an increase in future tourist arrivals. It is evident that arrivals from Europe might have a negative relationship with the number of hotel rooms available since tourists from this region might prefer accommodation with a safari atmosphere such as bush lodges. Investment in such accommodation facilities and the marketing of such facilities to Europeans may contribute to an increase in arrivals from Europe. The real exchange rate also plays a role in the price competitiveness of the destination country. Therefore, in order for South Africa to be more price competitive, inflation rate control can be a way to increase price competitiveness rather than to have a fixed exchange rate. Forecasting accuracy was tested by estimating the Mean Absolute Percentage Error, Root Mean Square Error and Theil’s U of each model. A Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was estimated for each origin market as a benchmark model to determine forecasting accuracy against this univariate time series approach. The results showed that the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model achieved more accurate predictions whereas the Vector Autoregressive model forecasts were more accurate than the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model forecasts. Policy–makers can use both the SARIMA and VAR model, which may generate more accurate forecast results in order to provide better policy recommendations.
Thesis (M.Com. (Economics))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2011.

This thesis examines the validity of the cost of carry model for pricing FTSE100 futures contracts and the relationship between FTSE100 spot and futures markets during two sub-periods characterised by different market trading systems employed by the LSE and LIFFE. The empirical work is carried out using three approaches to econometric modeling: a basic VECM for spot and futures prices, a VECM extended with a DCCTGARCH framework to account for the conditional variance-covariance structure for spot and futures prices and a threshold VECM to capture regime-dependent spot-futures price dynamics. Overall, both the basic VECM and the DCC-TGARCH analysis suggest that there are deviations from the cost of carry relationship in the first sub-sample when transactions costs in both markets are relatively high but that the cost of carry relationship tends to be valid in the second sub-sample when transactions costs are lower. This is further confirmed by the evidence of higher conditional correlations between the two markets in the second sub-sample as compared with the first, using the DCC-TGARCH analysis. This implies that the no-arbitrage cost of carry relationship between spot and futures markets is more effectively maintained by index arbitrageurs in the second period when market conditions are closer to perfect market assumptions, and hence the cost of carry model could be more reasonably used as a benchmark for pricing stock index futures. The threshold VECM analysis depicts regime-dependent price dynamics between FTSE100 spot and futures markets and leads to some interesting and important findings: arbitrage may not be practicable under some market conditions, either because it is difficult to find counterparties for the arbitrage transactions, or because there is significant risk associated with arbitrage; as a result, the cost of carry model may not always be suitable for pricing stock index futures. Furthermore, the threshold values yielded from estimating the threshold VECM reflect the average transaction costs for most arbitrageurs that are more reliable and fair than subjective estimations.

This study aims to identify the effects of oil income on economic growth in Iran over the period 1955-2014. The empirical literature indicates that countries with natural resources are growing more slowly than their counterparts. However, the results from this literature are far from conclusive, particularly in regard to the role played by oil-rich countries. Needless to say, this role depends on other factors as well, including the political situation in the country, the quality of institutions, and the efficacy of the financial system. Some empirical research has found that natural resources, particularly oil, can have a positive impact on the output of a country. although natural resources are not a factor of production in growth theories, studies have used different growth frameworks in order to discover whether having natural resources is a blessing or a curse. In line with recent studies, this work uses an augmented neoclassical growth model to develop a theoretical framework where oil enters the long-term output of the country through saving and investment. Overall, the results suggests that oil income has a positive impact on the level of output per capita in Iran. The findings of the econometric results are in line with the historical analysis of the study. Since different methods and proxies were used, a total of eight models were estimated. Interestingly, when PRIVY is used as an index of financial development, the result of the study changes and oil no longer has a significant impact on the economy. However, this can be translated to an inefficient allocation of credit to the private sector.

This research studies the relationships in Electric Energy Consumption, Carbon Dioxide Emission and Theil Index in Brazil. The period of analysis includes annual data from 1980 to 2011 in a total of 31 observations. The series presented order of integration equal one with the presence of cointegration thus to measure these influences we used a vector error correction model (VEC). By Function Impulse Response (FIR) and Variance Decomposition Analysis (ADV) we observed how each variable behaves to an abrupt change. To analyze the behavior of variables, methods of vector autoregressive (VAR) and residues control charts were used. The VAR modeling revealed that there is a significant interrelationship among the variables under study, thus showing that there is a short-term relationship between these variables. As for the residues control chart to individual measures, a problem in the original variables was avoided tha were the the autocorrelation, and showed that all variables had a period of instability and also enabled the identification of this period. The emission of carbon dioxide and Theil Index are determining factors in the explanation of environmental impacts as well as the development of the country. The variance decomposition indicates that the carbon dioxide emission is primarily responsible for mainly caused damage to the environment.
Esta pesquisa estudou as relações existentes no Consumo de Energia Elétrica, Emissão de Dióxido de Carbono e Índice de Theil no Brasil. O período de análise se refere a dados anuais de 1980 a 2011 perfazendo um total de 31 observações do Brasil. As séries apresentaram ordem de integração igual a um com a presença de cointegração, assim, para mensurar essas influências foi utilizado um modelo de Vetor de Correção de Erros (VEC). Por meio da Função Impulso Resposta (FIR) e Análise de Decomposição da Variância (ADV) foi possível verificar como cada variável se comporta a uma mudança abrupta. Para analisar o comportamento das variáveis, foram utilizadas as metodologias de vetores auto regressivos (VAR) e gráficos de controle de resíduos. Já a modelagem VAR revelou que há um inter-relacionamento significativo entre as variáveis em estudo, mostrando assim que há uma relação de curto prazo entre estas variáveis. Quanto aos gráficos de controle de medidas individuais aos resíduos, contornou-se um problema presente nas variáveis originais que era o de autocorrelação, e mostrou-se que todas as variáveis apresentaram um período de instabilidade o que também possibilitou a identificação deste período. A Emissão de Dióxido de Carbono e o Índice de Theil são fatores determinantes na explicação dos impactos ambientais, assim como no desenvolvimento do país. A decomposição da variância indica que a Emissão de Dióxido de Carbono é o principal responsável pelos danos causados principalmente ao meio ambiente.

The inability to effectively hedge against unfavourable exchange rate movements, using the current forward exchange rate as the only guideline, is a key inhibiting factor of international trade. Market participants use the current forward exchange rate quoted in the market to make decisions regarding future exchange rate changes. However, the current forward exchange rate is not solely determined by the interaction of demand and supply, but is also a mechanistic estimation, which is based on the current spot exchange rate and the carry cost of the transaction. Results of various studies, including this study, demonstrated that the current forward exchange rate differs substantially from the realized future spot exchange rate. This phenomenon is known as the exchange rate puzzle. This study contributes to the dynamics of modelling exchange rate theories by developing an exchange rate model that has the ability to explain the realized future spot exchange rate and the exchange rate puzzle. The exchange rate model is based only on current (time t) economic fundamentals and includes an alternative approach of incorporating the impact of the interaction of two international financial markets into the model. This study derived a unique exchange rate model, which proves that the exchange rate puzzle is a pseudo problem. The pseudo problem is based on the generally excepted fallacy that current non–stationary, level time series data cannot be used to model exchange rate theories, because of the incorrect assumption that all the available econometric methods yield statistically insignificant results due to spurious regressions. Empirical evidence conclusively shows that using non–stationary, level time series data of current economic fundamentals can statistically significantly explain the realized future spot exchange rate and, therefore, that the exchange rate puzzle can be solved. This model will give market participants in the foreign exchange market a better indication of expected future exchange rates, which will considerably reduce the dependence on the mechanistically derived forward points. The newly derived exchange rate model will also have an influence on the demand and supply of forward exchange, resulting in forward points that are a more accurate prediction of the realized future exchange rate.
Thesis (Ph.D. (Risk management))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2011.

La nouvelle stratégie d'intégration adoptée en 2000 par les pays Sud-Américains, après trois décennies d'instabilité économique et de crises récurrentes, est un jalon de l'histoire économique de la région. En effet, la volatilité du cycle économique de ces pays s'est réduite significativement à partir de cette date, atteignant son niveau le plus bas depuis 1950. L'analyse d'un tel phénomène est particulièrement intéressante en particulier lorsque l'on se place dans le contexte de turbulences et de crises des années 2000, à savoir, la crise financière mondiale (2008-2009) et, dans son sillage, la crise des dettes souveraines en zone euro. Dans cette thèse, l'objectif est d'étudier le projet d'intégration régionale d'Amérique du Sud, institutionnalisé en 2008 avec la création de l'Union des Nations Sud-Américaines Unasur, en tant que vecteur de stabilisation de ces économies. De ce fait, il s'agit de concentrer l'analyse sur les interactions entre les douze pays du continent Sud-Américain – Argentine, Bolivie, Brésil, Chili, Colombie, Équateur, Guyana, Paraguay, Pérou, Uruguay, Suriname et Venezuela – qui forment un groupe hétérogène autour d'un objectif commun l' "… intégration culturelle, sociale, économique et politique …" et la "… réduction des asymétries de la qualité de vie de ses citoyens … ". La thèse s'intéresse exclusivement aux aspects économiques d'un tel projet d'intégration régionale. À partir d'outils empiriques et théoriques, nous cherchons à évaluer le niveau de convergence et de vulnérabilité des économies concernées. Plus particulièrement une analyse des impacts des politiques d'intégration dans court terme et une étude de leurs performances macroéconomiques de long terme. La thèse se divise en quatre chapitres et s'appuie sur des modèles qui intègrent diverses sources de diffusion des chocs asymétriques. Le premier chapitre présente l'état de l'art de la théorie d'intégration économique régionale en soulignant le cas Sud-Américain. Le deuxième chapitre analyse, à l'aide de modèles vectoriels autorégressifs structurels et de mesures de corrélation, l'impact de chocs externes sur les secteurs réel, monétaire et budgétaire des pays membres de l'Unasur. L'analyse montre que : (i) même les pays les plus fermés (Argentine et Venezuela) et les plus industrialisées (Brésil) présentent une forte vulnérabilité aux perturbations internationales, (ii) cette vulnérabilité individuelle se traduit en une convergence de court terme des trajectoires des principales variables macroéconomiques des pays concernés. Dans le troisième chapitre, on cherche à mesurer le degré de convergence de long terme des niveaux de vie des citoyens Sud-Américains à l’aide de modèles empiriques vectoriels à correction d'erreur et de techniques de cointégration. Les résultats montrent l'existence de tendances stochastiques communes à long terme. Cela signifie que les pays sont engagés dans un processus d'évolution vers un objectif commun, autrement dit, que les conditions de vie des citoyens Sud-Américains ne divergent pas à long terme. En fin, le troisième chapitre vise à analyser l'impact de l'investissement dans la construction de réseaux régionaux de transport, de communication et d'énergie, sur la réduction de l'hétérogénéité structurelle des pays de l'Unasur (projet IIRSA). En effectuant un certain nombre d'expériences de politique dans un cadre théorique, cette analyse constate que : (i) une accroissement d'investissement public en infrastructure suscite une augmentation du commerce intra-intra-régional mais pas forcément une réduction de l'écart de production entre les pays, (ii) l'écart de production à long terme entre l'Argentine et le Brésil diminue, dans un scénario gagnant-gagnant, en termes de croissance économique, seulement si les gouvernements de ces deux pays coordonnent leur augmentation d'investissement en infrastructure, comme proposé par l'IIRSA
Economic integration seems to be a new global trend. The past two decades have witnessed the formation of several economic unions in Asia (ASEAN+3 in 1997), Europe (Eurozone in 1999), Africa, and America (Union of South American Nations, Unasur in 2008). The South American case deserves special attention because, unlike the other blocs, the Unasur emerged as a political alliance and not as an economic one. Furthermore, Unasur is conceived as a strategy for improving the socioeconomic conditions of nations that have a common history of economic instability and external dependence. However, while common concerns and political willingness exist among group members, the question of whether that consensus is sufficient to ensure economic integration remains unanswered. For instance, economic integration as a strategy for macroeconomic stability has seemed to work well in Europe after the euro was launched in 1999 (Sapir, 2011), until the breakdown of the European sovereign debt crisis in recent years has revealed the inherent weaknesses of an economic union that lacks a political union (Fligstein et al., 2012, Issing, 2011). This development suggests that the Unasur project is likely to fail if the concerned economies do not converge economically. This is the reason why, this thesis assesses the Unasur project from an economic integration perspective, thus, complementing the huge body of political literature that has been developed on the issue (Briceño-Ruiz, 2014, Sanahuja, 2012). The first chapter describes the theory of economic integration' state of art focusing on South America. The second chapter examines the reactions of the Unasur economies to external shocks. By using a structural vector autoregression approach, it measures the impact of three external shocks (monetary, commercial, and financial) in the real, monetary, and fiscal economic sectors of Unasur economies and investigates co-movement paths. The results show (i) a non-negligible degree of synchronization across the studied economies, confirming their high external vulnerability, (ii) irrespective of size or integration degree, all Unasur members share mutual weaknesses, which they must fight to overcome. The third chapter evaluates the convergence in real GDP per-capita, as a suitable proxy measure, of the concerned economies for the period 1951-2011. By relying on cointegration techniques and applying Bernard and Durlauf's (1995) stochastic definitions of convergence and common trends, the presented evidence supports the existence of common long-run trends driving output in South America, meaning that the region is involved in a dynamic process of convergence in living standards. Finally, the fourth chapter studies the economic spillovers of the most advanced structural project of the group: the Initiative for the Integration of Regional Infrastructure in South America (IIRSA). A micro-founded two-country general equilibrium model is constructed to evaluate potential gains or losses (in terms of output convergence and trade integration) of raising publicly provided transportation infrastructure in a coordinated and uncoordinated manner. The model is solved using data from Argentina and Brazil. Results show that: (i) rising public investment in infrastructure boost commercial integration but not necessarily generates output converge, (ii) the only way for the Argentina and Brazil to achieve output convergence is to coordinate their increments on public infrastructure as proposed by the IIRSA

The recent economic and financial turmoil has led central banks around the world to heavily utilize unconventional monetary policy measures. Unconventional in this sense means a deflection from traditional central bank policy measures, i.e. interest rate innovations. Although these measures were widely discussed, the uniformed, coherent and comprehensive framework of such measures is still missing. The aim of this thesis is to establish the framework for possible classification of such policies together with transmission channels to the real economy. The empirical part examines the impacts of unconventional policies on real data using vector autoregression and vector error correction models. This analysis is based on monthly data period between 1999 and 2013, which is strongly affected by implementation of the unconventional policies in its second half. The last section examines the possible future of these policies as a normal instrument of central banks and describes their main challenges and shortcomings. JEL classification: C32, E40, E44, E50, E52, E58, E60 Keywords: Unconventional monetary policy, Interest rate, Decoupling principle, Balance sheet policy stratification, Quantitative easing, Channels of transmission, Vector Autoregression, Vector error correction model Author's e-mail:...

碩士
銘傳大學
財務金融學系碩士班
92
This paper discusses the long term equilibrium and short term dynamics between stock market returns and business cycles. Most researches apply macroeconomic variables such as Industrial Production Index or GDP to predict business cycles. This paper uses the Leading Index, Coincident Index and unemployment rate to stand for macroeconomic conditions. We attempt to apply Markov-Switching Vector Error Correction Model (MS-VECM) to discover the long term and short term relations between stock market returns and Leading Index, Coincident Index and unemployment rate respectively and uses regime dependent impulse response function to analyze the effect toward the variable itself and how the variable effects other variables. We find Leading Index, Coincident Index, unemployment rate, and Taiwan’s stock index belong to I(1), which means they are stable time series after difference. The result shows that these variables have long term equilibrium relations after Johansen cointegration testing is conducted. By applying MS-VECM, we find that Taiwan’s business cycle experienced more expansion states than recession in the last 20 years. In the states of recession, we find the relation between stock market return and the Leading Index, Coincident Index is negative, however the relation is positive that is in expansion. Moreover, the relation between stock market return and unemployment rate is negative no matter in recession or expansion. After regime dependent impulse response function is conducted, we find the Coincident Index variable affects itself and other variables longer and stronger in expansion, while as we use Leading Index and unemployment rate as the substitutes variables, the effects are stronger and last longer in recession.

Η παρούσα μελέτη εξετάζει τη δυναμική σχέση μεταξύ των τιμών των ζωοτροφών και παραγωγού, καταναλωτή για τέσσερα είδη κρέατος: μοσχάρι, χοιρινό, αρνί και κοτόπουλο. Η σχετική βιβλιογραφία δείχνει ότι πολλοί παράγοντες επιδρούν στις τιμές των αγροτικών προϊόντων αλλά οι τιμές των ζωοτροφών είναι ο κυριότερος. Αυτό συμβαίνει γιατί οι ζωοτροφές αποτελούν πρώτη ύλη για την παραγωγή κρέατος και κατ΄επέκταση θα επηρέασουν τις τιμές παραγωγού και καταναλωτή. Τα δεδομένα αποτελούνται από 279 μηνιαίες τιμές που εκτείνονται από τον Ιανουάριο 1990 έως τον Ιανουάριο 2013. Χρησιμοποιώντας Johansen cointegration tests, Granger causality tests και impulse response functions τα εμπειρικά αποτελέσματα επιβεβαιώνουν πως οι τιμές των ζωοτροφών, οι τιμές παραγωγού και οι τιμές καταναλωτή δεν είναι ανεξάρτητες μεταξύ τους.
The present paper studies the relationship among feed prices, producer prices and consumer prices of meat: beef, pork, poultry and lamb. The literature indicates that there are many factors which affect agricultural commodity prices but the feed prices are the main. This is why feed has a principal role in the production of meat and will affect producer and consumer prices. The data consists of 279 monthly observations extending from January 1990 to January 2013. Using Johansen cointegration tests, Granger causality tests and impulse response functions, the empirical findings confirm that feed prices, consumer prices and producer prices are interdependent.

Tese de doutoramento em Gestão de Empresas, na especialidade de Finanças, apresentada à Faculdade de Economia da Universidade de Coimbra
O Sistema de Comércio Europeu de Licenças de Emissão (CELE) constitui um dos instrumentos centrais da estratégia da União Europeia para o combate às alterações climáticas, sendo uma ferramenta chave para o desenho de uma solução custo-eficiente na redução das emissões de gases com efeito estufa. O objetivo do nosso trabalho consiste em estudar o impacto da participação dos setores elétricos Ibéricos no CELE nomeadamente pela avaliação da ligação entre os preços das licenças de emissão transacionadas nos mercados de carbono e os preços da eletricidade transacionada nos segmentos português e espanhol do Mercado Ibérico de Energia Elétrica (MIBEL) durante a Fase II (2008-2012) e início da Fase III (2013) de operação do CELE. A eficácia do funcionamento deste mecanismo de sinalização do custo da utilização de licenças de emissão de carbono ao preço da eletricidade é fundamental para que os estímulos à redução das emissões de gases com efeito estufa se propaguem da produção ao consumo. Para testar estatisticamente o vínculo entre aqueles preços recorremos a várias técnicas de ajustamento econométrico adequadas à natureza específica das séries de dados com que trabalhamos. Na modelização mais complexa ajustamos um Modelo Vetorial de Correção de Erros (VECM) onde os preços da eletricidade, do carbono e dos combustíveis usados na geração elétrica (gás natural e carvão) são modelados em conjunto como variáveis endógenas a que se somam um conjunto de variáveis exógenas de controlo destinadas a acomodar as características especificas de operação dos sistemas elétricos Ibéricos nomeadamente no que respeita ao papel das energias renováveis no abastecimento elétrico. A estimação dos diferentes modelos econométricos permitiu-nos concluir que o preço do carbono, a par do preço dos combustíveis, é relevante para o estabelecimento da relação de equilíbrio de longo prazo (relação de cointegração) à qual o preço da eletricidade está ancorado. Os resultados a que chegamos, em linha com trabalhos publicados para outros mercados europeus de energia elétrica, permitem concluir que os produtores elétricos Ibéricos têm capacidade para fazer refletir no preço da eletricidade o custo de oportunidade associado às licenças de emissão de carbono, tendo beneficiado de condições para acumular rendas económicas (lucros extraordinários) durante a Fase II de funcionamento do CELE uma vez que essas licenças lhes foram atribuídas gratuitamente. Nesta medida, os nossos resultados suportam a decisão da Comissão Europeia de introduzir uma alteração às regras de alocação das licenças de emissão ao setor elétrico no início da Fase III, passando de atribuição gratuita à obrigação de aquisição pelas empresas. Estimando a taxa de repercussão do preço do carbono no preço da eletricidade para diferentes períodos de funcionamento do CELE, concluímos que o vínculo entre aqueles preços se vem enfraquecendo como resultado do colapso do preço nos mercados de carbono, podendo estar a pôr em causa o mecanismo de transmissão do custo do carbono ao preço da eletricidade e por essa via a comprometer a eficácia do sistema no alcance dos seus objetivos ambientais. Nesse caso, desaparecerão os incentivos para que os produtores de eletricidade reduzam as suas emissões, nomeadamente trocando para tecnologias de produção menos intensivas em carbono ou investindo em nova capacidade de geração elétrica não poluente, e os estímulos para que os consumidores (domésticos ou industriais) reduzam no médio e longo prazo o seu consumo, incrementando a eficiência energética. Esta conclusão suporta a opinião dos que defendem a necessidade de implementação de políticas no âmbito do CELE que evitem a manutenção do preço do carbono em níveis excessivamente reduzidos durante longos períodos de tempo.
The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is a cornerstone of the European Union's policy to combat climate change and it’s a key tool for reducing industrial greenhouse gas emissions cost-effectively. The aim of this work is to investigate the impact of the EU ETS on the Iberian electricity systems throughout the assessment of the link between the carbon price and the wholesale electricity price traded on Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL), Portuguese and Spanish systems. Our sample includes all Phase II (2008-2012) and the first year of Phase III (2013) of the EU ETS, from January 2008 to December 2013. The price signal mechanism between the carbon and electricity price is fundamental for an effective carbon cost transmission from production to consumption and thus provide incentives to producers and consumers to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We tested empirically the link between those two prices through several econometric adjustment techniques specially designed to deal with financial time series. In the most complex econometric modeling, a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is applied to estimate not only long-run equilibrium relationships, but also short-run interactions between the electricity price, carbon price and fuel (natural gas and coal) prices. The four commodities prices are modeled as joint endogenous variables. Additionally, and motivated by the purpose of accounting for the specific operating conditions of Portuguese and Spanish electrical systems, a set of exogenous variables was integrated into the model, namely the amount of renewable energy. We found a long-run equilibrium relationship (cointegration relationship) between electricity price, carbon price and fuel prices demonstrating that carbon price, as the other fuels, plays an important role in formulating the equilibrium price of electricity. These empirical results, in line with studies concerning other European electricity markets, show evidence of a significant link between carbon and electricity prices demonstrating that during Phase II of EU ETS Iberian power producers passed on the opportunity costs of freely allocated emission allowances to the electricity price, enabling power companies to get windfall profits. Therefore, these results support the change in the allocation rule of emission allowances to the electricity sector, from grandfathering to auctioning, implemented by the European Commission for the Phase III of the EU ETS. By estimating the dynamic pass-through of carbon price into electricity price for different periods of our sample, it is possible to observe the weakening of the link between carbon and electricity prices as a result of the collapse on carbon price and consequently putting at risk the mechanism for transmission of the carbon cost to the electricity price and therefore compromising the efficacy of the system to reach proposed environmental goals. In such case, the incentives for electricity producers to reduce their emission, through the use of less carbon intensive production technologies or the investment in renewables, and the stimuli for end-users to cut their long term consumption, through increased energy efficiency, will disappear. This conclusion is in line with the need to shape new policies within the framework of the EU ETS that prevent excessive low prices for carbon over extended periods of time.

This study provides evidence of the relationship between bank-granted credit and business cycles in South Africa. The study is conducted in three phases, namely qualitative research (Phase I), quantitative research (Phase II) and econometric analysis (Phase III). A sequential (connected data) mixed methodology (Phase I and II) is used to collect and analyze primary data from market participants. The qualitative research (Phase I) involves structured interviews with influential or well informed people on the subject matter. Phase I of the study is used to understand the key determinants of bank credit in South Africa and to appreciate how each of the credit aggregates behaves during alternate business cycles. Qualitative survey results suggest key determinants of commercial bank credit in South Africa as economic growth, collateral value, bank competition, money supply, deposit liabilities, capital requirements, bank lending rates and inflation. The qualitative results are used to formulate questions of the structured survey questionnaire (Quantitative research- Phase II). The ANOVA and Pearman’s product correlation analysis techniques are used to assess relationship between variables. The quantitative results show that there is direct and positive relationship between bank lending behavior and credit aggregates namely economic growth, collateral value, bank competition and money supply. On the other hand, the results show that there is a negative relationship between credit growth and bank capital and lending rates. Overall, the quantitative findings show that bank lending in South Africa is procyclical. The survey results indicate that the case for demand-following hypothesis is stronger than supply-leading hypothesis in South Africa. The econometric methodology is used to augment results of the survey study. Phase III of the study re-examines econometric relationship between bank lending and business cycles. The study employs cointegration and vector error correction model (VECM) techniques in order to test for existence of long-run relationship between the selected variables. Granger causality test technique is applied to the variables of interest to test for direction of causation between variables. The study uses quarterly data for the period of 1980:Q1 to 2013:Q4. Business cycles are determined and measured by Gross Domestic Product at market prices while bank-granted credit is proxied by credit extension to the private sector. The econometric test results show that there is a significant long-run relationship between economic growth and bank credit extension. The Granger causality test provides evidence of unidirectional causal relationship with direction from economic growth to credit extension for South Africa. The study results indicate that the case for demand-following hypothesis is stronger than supply-leading hypothesis in South Africa. Economic growth spurs credit market development in South Africa. Overall, the results show that there is a stable long-run relationship between macroeconomic business cycles and real credit growth in South Africa. The results show that economic growth significantly causes and stimulates bank credit. The study, therefore, recommends that South Africa needs to give policy priority to promotion and development of the real sector of the economy to propel and accelerate credit extension. Economic growth is considered as the significant policy variable to stimulate credit extension. The findings therefore hold important implications for both theory and policy.
Business Management
D.B.L.

This dissertation examines the causal relationship between inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth (GDP) in SADC countries. The study investigates, within a panel data context, whether causation is short-term, long-term or both; and explores whether the causal relationship between the two variables differs according to income level. The study covered a panel of 15 SADC countries over the period 1980-2012. In order to assess whether the causal relationship between FDI inflows and economic growth is dependent on the level of income, the study divided the SADC countries into two groups, namely, the low-income and the middleincome countries. The study used the recently developed panel data analysis methods to examine this causal relationship. It adopted a three stage approach, which consists of panel unit root, panel cointegration and Granger causality to examine the dynamic causal relationship between the two variables. Panel unit root results show that both variables in the two SADC country groups were integrated of order one. Panel cointegration tests showed that the variables for low-income country group were not cointegrated, while the variables for the middle-income countries were cointegrated. Since the low-income country group panels were not cointegrated, Grangercausality tests were conducted within a VAR framework, while causality tests for the middleincome country group were conducted within an ECM framework. Panel Granger causality results for the low-income countries showed no evidence of causality in either direction. However, for the middle-income countries’ panel, there was evidence of a unidirectional causal flow from GDP to FDI in both the long- and short- run. The study concludes that the FDI-led growth hypothesis does not apply to SADC countries. The results imply that the recent high economic growth rates recorded in the SADC region, especially middle-income countries, have been attracting FDI. In other words, it is economic growth that drives FDI inflows into the SADC region, and not vice versa. These findings have profound policy implications for the SADC region at large and individual countries.
Economics
MCOM (Economics)

Abstracts in English, Xhosa and Southern Sotho
This study critically explores the link between internationalisation theories and outward foreign direct investment (FDI) – a linkage which is well documented in the literature. Numerous studies have established that the internationalisation process recognises both firm- and market-specific aspects, which greatly determine the direction of outward FDI in terms of volume and pattern. In this interaction, path dependency is determined by the intensity of overlapping aspects or linkages, from firm-level heterogeneity and host market aspects that direct investment patterns in terms of the latter, to the volumes of firm-level adjustments. Firm-level heterogeneity comprises those traits, which enable an individual firm to make an investment decision, select a market-entry strategy and create the competitive advantages that will sustain its investments. Macro-level or country-specific aspects encompass those traits or characteristics of host markets, which encourage FDI on the part of multinational enterprises (MNEs). Most studies overlook the path dependency of country- and firm-specific aspects, which are crucial to the internationalisation processes of international business, economics and trade. Academic studies either focus on macro- or micro-level aspects, without paying specific attention to the path dependency of expansion strategies. The present study attempts to fill these gaps in the existing body of knowledge, by investigating international business in these contexts. The rationale for undertaking this study was two-fold: first, FDI holds proven benefits for host markets, which include economic growth, industry spillover, human capital development and transitory tacit knowledge. From a firm-level perspective, outward FDI largely enhances the capacity of MNEs, prompting an increase in asset accumulation, market share and human capital development, the more efficient utilisation of resources and return on equity. In this study, an argument is presented for measuring the variables of both firm- and market-specific aspects, since most existing studies in this genre focus either on micro- or macro-level determinants, or totally overlook the importance of linkages. Second, no documented research has investigated the path dependency of expansion strategies, especially in Africa. Crucially, the importance of path dependency of South Africa’s outward investment has not been documented either. Further, existing evidence on the role the path dependency of expansion strategies plays in outward FDI are scarce, with even fewer studies following a sectorial approach. This study attempts to fill these academic research gaps by reflecting both firm- and market-level data from various sources for the period 1995–2015, using panel dynamic regression models. The study found that the linkages between firm heterogeneity (firm-level evidence) and market-level aspects create a path dependency of expansion strategies. MNEs adopt either joint ventures or wholly owned subsidiaries (or both) as market-entry strategies, but the decision is informed by the intensity of those firm heterogeneity aspects that allow them to exploit opportunities and mitigate risk in host markets. Notably, the intensity of path dependency seemingly varies from one industrial segment to the next. The impulse response approach delivered evidence that one standard deviation shock of firm-specific variables led to a moderate improvement in firm-level capacities in the short run, but a significant improvement in the long run. The same result was recorded for market-level aspects, with the intensity of the results varying from one industry to the next. The causality test attempted to explore the causal relationship between the study variables in both firm- and market-level aspects. Empirical evidence from the study indicates that the size of the firm and its capacity to utilise its resources efficiently, influence their investment in host markets. As regards market-specific aspects, the size of the economy, levels of industry and trade openness were found to have a causal effect on the inflow of FDI in host markets. The intensity of causal aspects was also found to vary from one industry to the next, due to variations in firm-level heterogeneity and their linkage in terms of aspects related to the host market. In sum, this study complements existing material on the subject of international business.
Olu phononongo luphicotha ikhonkco phakathi kweengcingane zamazwe ngamazwe kunye notyalo-mali ngokuthe ngqo oluphuma ngaphandle kumazwe asemzini (i-FDI) –indibaniselo ebhalwe kakuhle kwimiqulu yoncwadi. Izifundo ezininzi ezenziweyo ziye zaqinisekisa ukuba inkqubo yamazwe ngamazwe iyazamkela zombini inkampani- kunye nemiba ekhethekileyo yemarike, ezihlola kakhulukazi imikhombandlela (izikhokelo) ye-FDI yangaphandle ngokomthamo kunye nephatheni. Kule ntsebenziswano, indlela yokuxhomekeka ifunyanwa ngobungakanani bezinto ezisebenzelelanayo/ezingenanayo okanye izenzo zokuhlangana, ukusuka kwiintlobo-ntlobo zamanqanaba enkampani kunye neemfuno zabasingathe imicimbi yeendawo zokuthengisa (iimarike) iimpahla ezilawula iiphatheni zotyalo-imali ngokweyokugqibela, kwimilinganiselo yokulungelelaniswa kwenqanaba lwenkampani. Iintlobo-ntlobo zamanqanaba enkampani ziquka ezo mpawu, ezenza inkampani nganye yenze isigqibo sotyalo-mali, ikhethe isicwangciso sokungeniswa kwimarike kwaye siyile amathuba amahle okhuphiswano aya kugcina utyalo-mali. Inqanaba eliphezulu okanye iinkalo ezithile zelizwe zibandakanya ezo zimo okanye iimpawu zeemarike ezamkelekileyo, ezikhuthaza i-FDI kwiinkampani zamazwe ngamazwe (i-MNEs). Uninzi lwezifundo aziyiniki ngqalelo indlela yokuxhomekeka yelizwe kwimicimbi ekhethekileyo nebalulekileyo yenkampani kwiinkqubo zangokwamazwe oshishino lwamazwe ngamazwe, uqoqosho norhwebo. Uphando lwemfundo ephakamileyo lugxininisa kwiinkcukacha ezikwinqanaba eliphezulu okanye eliphantsi ngokunganiki ngqalelo kwindlela yokuxhomekeka yeendlela zokwandisa. Uphononongo lwangoku luzama ukuvala izikhewu/izikroba kulwazi olukhoyo., ngokuphanda ishishini lwamazwe ngamazwe kule meko. Ingqiqo ekwenzeni olu phando yahlulwe kubini: okokuqala, i-FDI inenzuzo eqinisekisiweyo kwabasingethe iimarike, ezibandakanya ukukhula koqoqosho, ukuchuma kwamashishini, ukuphuhliswa kwezakhono zabantu kunye nolwazi oludlulileyo lwezakhono. Ngakwicala lenqanaba lenkampani, i-FDI yangaphandle iphakamisa amandla e-MNE, ikhawulezisa ukunyusa uqokelelo lwempahla, isabelo semarike kunye nophuhliso lwabantu, ukusetyenziswa ngokufanelekileyo kwezixhobo kunye nokubuyela kubulungisa bokulingana. Kolu phononongo, impikiswano inikezelwe ukulinganisa iinguqu zombini yenkampani- kunye nemimiselo ethile yemarike, njengoko olunye uphando oluninzi olwenziweyo kolu hlobo lugxininisa koonobangela abakwizinga elisezantsi okanye eliphezulu, okanye kunganikwa ngqalelo tu kukubaluleka kwezenzo zokudibana / zokunxibelelana. Okwesibini, akukho phando lubhaliweyo oluphande indlela yokuxhomekeka kweendlela zokwandisa, ngakumbi e-Afrika. Ngokusesikweni, ukubaluleka kwendlela yokuxhomekeka yotyalo-mali lwangaphandle eMzantsi Afrika alukaze nalo lubhalwe phantsi. Ukongezelela, ubungqina obukhoyo kwindima yendlela yokuxhomekeka yeendlela zokwandisa kwi-FDI yangaphandle zinqabile, kwakunye nezifundo ezimbalwa ezilandela indlela yamacandelo. Olu phononongo luzama ukuzalisa izikroba zophando zemfundo ephakamileyo ngokuzibonakalisa zombini inkampani- kunye nedatha yamanqanaba emarike avela kwimithombo eyahlukeneyo yexesha lowe-1995-2015, usebenzisa iimodeli zepaneli ezinamandla zokubuy’umva. Uphononongo lufumanise ukuba ukudibana phakathi kweentlobo-ntlobo zenkampani (ubungqina bezinga lenkampani) kunye nemilinganiselo yezinga lemarike zidala indlela yoxhomekeko yeendlela zokukhula. Ii-MNE zamkela intsebenziswano ngokuhlangeneyo okanye bazibambele ngokwabo ngokupheleleyo (okanye zombini) njengeendlela zokungena kwimarike, kodwa isigqibo siphenjelelwa bubungakanani beentlobo-ntlobo zemicimbi yenkampani evumela ukuba baxhaphaze amathuba kwaye banciphise umngcipheko kwiimarike zenkampani. Ngokuphawulekayo, ubukhulu bokuxhomekeka wendlela yokuxhomekeka kukhangeleka kusahluka ukusuka kwicandelo elinye lozoshishino ukuya kwelinye elilandelayo. Indlela yokuphendula ngokungxama inikezele ubungqina bokuba ukuphazamiseka okusesikweni kwizinto eziguquguqukayo zenkampani ezikhethekileyo zikhokelele ekuphuculeni okusezingeni eliphakathi kwinqanaba kubungakanani benqanaba lenkampani ngexeshana, kodwa ukuphuculwa okubonakalayo nokubalulekileyo ekuhambeni kwexesha. Isiphumo esifanayo sabhalwa phantsi kwiinkalo zemarike, nobukhulu beziphumo zohluka ukusuka kwelinye ishishini ukuya kwelinye. Uvavanyo lwamaxesha athile luzame ukuphonononga ubudlelwane bamaxesha athile phakathi kwezifundo zezinto eziguquguqukayo kwiinkalo zombini inkampani –kunye nenqanaba lemarike/ neemeko zemarike. Ubungqina bamava obuvela kuphando lubonisa ukuba ubungakanani benkampani kunye namandla okusebenzisa uvimba wezixhobo ngokufanelekileyo, ziphembelela utyalo-mali kwiimarike zenkampani. Ngokubhekiselele kwimimandla ethile yemarike, ubungakanani boqoqosho, amazinga oshishino kunye nokuvuleka kwezorhwebo kufunyaniswe ukuba kunefuthe elenzekayo ngamaxesha athile ekungeneni kwe-FDI kubasingathi beemarike. Ubungakanani bemicimbi eyenzeka ngamaxesha athile yafunyanwa kwakhona ukuba yohlukile ukusuka kwelinye ishishini ukuya kwelinye, ngenxa yeenguqu kwiintlobo-ntlobo zeamanqanaba enkampani kunye nokudibana kwabo ngokwemiba enxulumene nabasingethe imarike. Kafutshane esi sifundo, sigcwalisa izixhobo ezikhoyo kwisihloko sezoshishino lamazwe ngamazwe.
Dinyakišišo tše di utolla ka tsinkelo kgokagano gareng ga diteori tša peyomaemong a boditšhabatšhaba le peeletšothwii ye e tšwago dinageng tša ka ntle (FDI) – e lego kgokagano yeo go ngwadilwego ka yona kudu ka dingwalweng. Dinyakišišo tše mmalwa di utollotše gore tshepedišo ya go bea maemong a boditšhabatšhaba e lemoga bobedi dilo tša difeme le tše di amanago le difeme, tšeo di laolago kudu fao FDI ya dinaga tša ka ntle e lebilego gona mabapi le bontši le mokgwa. Ka tirišanong ye, go tšea diphetho go ya ka maemo go laolwa ke bontši bja dilo tšeo di dirwago ka nako e tee goba dikamano, go tloga go go farologanya ditšweletšwa ka femeng le dilo tša mmaraka wa ka nageng tšeo di laolago mekgwa ya dipeeletšo mabapi le go ya ka mmaraka wa ka nageng, go ya go mehuta ye mentši ya dipeakanyo tša ka femeng. Go farologanya ditšweletšwa ka femeng go bopilwe ke diphetogo tše, tšeo di kgontšhago feme ye itšego go tšea sephetho sa mabapi le peeletšo, go kgetha maano a go tsena ka mmarakeng le go hlama menyetla ye mekaone yeo e tlago tšwetša pele peeletšo ya yona. Dikokwane tša ekonomi ye kgolo goba tša ka nageng di akaretša diphetogo tšeo goba dipharologantšhi tša mebaraka ya ka nageng, tšeo di hlohleletšago FDI ka karolong ya dikgwebo tša dinaga tša ka ntle (di-MNE). Dinyakišišo tše ntši di hlokomologile go tšea diphetho go ya ka maemo ga naga le ga dilo tša ka femeng ye itšego, tšeo di lego bohlokwa go tshepedišo ya peyomaemong a boditšhabatšhaba ya dikgwebo tša boditšhabatšhaba, diekonomi le kgwebišano. Dinyakišišo tša dirutegi di ka be di lebeletše kudu dilo tša ekonomi ye kgolo goba tša ye nnyane, ka ntle le go lebiša šedi ye kgolo go go tšea diphetho go ya ka maemo a boditšhabatšhaba ga maano a katološo. Dinyakišišo tše di leka go tlatša dikgoba tše ka tsebo ye e lego gona, ka go nyakišiša dikgwebo tša boditšhabatšhaba ka maemong a. Maikemišetšo a go dira dinyakišišo tše e bile a mabedi: sa mathomo, FDI e na le dikholego tšeo di tiišeditšwego go mebaraka ya ka dinageng, tšeo di akaretšago kgolo ya ekonomi, khuetšano ya diintasteri, tlhabollo ya bokgoni bja bašomi le phetišetšo ya tsebo ye e lego nyanyeng. Go ya ka maemong a difeme, FDI ye e tšwago dinageng tša ka ntle e godiša bokgoni bja di- MNE, ya hlohleletša koketšego ya khwetšo ya dithoto, ya kabelano ya mmaraka le ya tlhabollo ya bokgoni bja bašomi, tšhomišo ye kaone kudu ya methopo le go hwetša poelo go dikabelano. Ka mo dinyakišišong tše, go hlagišwa ntlha ya go ela diphapano tša bobedi dilo tša ka femeng le tša ka mmarakeng, ka ge bontši bja dinyakišišo tše di lego gona ka mo lekaleng le la dinyakišišo di lebeletše kudu tšeo di laolago ekonomi ye nnyane goba ye kgolo goba tšeo di hlokomologago ka botlalo bohlokwa bja dikgokagano. Sa bobedi, ga go dinyakišišo tšeo di ngwadilwego tšeo di nyakišišitšego go tšea diphetho go ya ka maemo ga maano a katološo, kudukudu ka Afrika. Se bohlokwa ke gore, bohlokwa bja go tšea diphetho go ya ka maemo ga peeletšo ya Afrika Borwa ya dinaga tša ka ntle ga se gwa ngwalwa le ge go le bjale. Godimo ga fao, bohlatse bjo bo lego gona ka ga mošomo wa go tšea diphetho go ya ka maemo fao go ralokago ka ga maano a katološo ka go FDI ya dinaga tša ka ntle e se bjo bontši, gomme go na le dinyakišišo tše mmalwa go latela mokgwa wo o lebeletšego makala. Dinyakišišo tše di leka go tlatša dikgoba tše tša dinyakišišo tša dirutegi ka go laetša tshedimošo ya bobedi ka maemong a difeme le ka mebarakeng go tšwa methopong ya mehutahuta go tloga ka mengwaga ya 1995–2015, ka go šomiša mekgwa ya kakanyo ya dikamano ye e fetogago. Dinyakišišo di hweditše gore dikamano gareng ga go farologanya ditšweletšwa (bohlatse bja ka maemong a difeme) le dilo tša maemo a ka mmarakeng di hlola go tšea diphetho go ya ka maemo ga maano a katološo. Di-MNE di šomiša masolo a mohlakanelwa goba dikhamphani tša ka fasana tšeo di laolwago ka botlalo (goba ka bobedi) bjalo ka maano a go tsena ka mmarakeng, eupša sephetho se laolwa ke bontši bja dilo tšeo tša go farologanya ditšweletšwa tšeo di di dumelelago go nyaka dibaka le go fokotša kotsi ka mebarakeng ya ka nageng. Seo se lemogilwego ke gore, bontši bja go tšea diphetho go ya ka maemo go bonala go fapane go ya ka karolo ya intasteri go ya go ye nngwe. Mokgwa wa go arabela kgoketšo wo o hlagišitšwego ka bohlatseng bja gore phapogo ya tlwaelo ya diphapano tša ka femeng e feleleditše ka kaonafalo ya magareng ya bokgoni bja difeme lebakeng le lekopana, eupša ka kaonafalo ye kgolo mo lebakeng le letelele. Dipoelo tše di swanago di begilwe ka go dilo tša maemo a ka mmarakeng, gomme bontši bja dipoelo tša fapana go ya ka diintasteri. Teko ya mathata yeo e bego e leka go utolla kamano ya tšeo di bakago se gareng ga phapano ya dinyakišišo ka go bobedi ka dilo tša ka femeng le tša ka mmarakeng. Bohlatse bja maitemogelo go tšwa ka mo dinyakišišong bo laetša gore bogolo bja feme le bokgoni bja yona bja go šomiša methopo ya yona gabotse ntle le mathata, di huetša peeletšo ya yona ka mebarakeng ya ka nageng. Mabapi le dilo tša ka mmarakeng, bogolo bja ekonomi, maemo a intasteri le go hloka sephiri ka kgwebišanong di bonwe di na le seabe sa go baka seemo go tseneng ga FDI ka mebarakeng ya ka nageng. Bontši bja dilo tše di bakago maemo go hweditšwe gape gore go fapana go ya ka diintasteri, ka lebaka la diphapano ka go farologanyo ya ditšweletšwa ka difemeng le kamano ya tšona mabapi le dilo tšeo di amanago le mmaraka wa ka nageng. Bjalo ka kakaretšo, dinyakišišo tše di tlaleletša dingwalwa tšeo di lego gona ka ga hlogotaba ya dikgwebo tša boditšhabatšhaba.
Business Management
D. Phil. (Business Management)

Foreign aid has been used on the one hand by donors as an important international relations policy tool and on the other hand by developing countries as a source of funds for development. Since its inception in the 1940s, foreign aid has been one of the most researched topics in development economics. This study adds to this growing aid effectiveness literature, with a particular focus on the under-researched relationship between foreign aid and extreme poverty. The main empirical assessment is based on a sample of 120 developing countries from 1981 to 2013. The study had two main objectives, namely: (i) to estimate the impact of foreign aid on poverty reduction and (ii) to examine the direction of causality between foreign aid and poverty in developing countries. From these two broad objectives, there are six specific objectives, which include to: (i) examine the overall impact of foreign aid (total official development assistance) on extreme poverty, (ii) investigate the impact of different proxies of foreign aid on the three proxies of extreme poverty, (iii) assess whether political freedom (democracy) or economic freedom enhances the effectiveness of foreign aid, (iv) compare the impact of foreign aid on extreme poverty by developing country income groups, and (v) examine the direction of causality between extreme poverty and foreign aid. To achieve these objectives, the study employed two main dynamic panel data econometric estimation methods, namely the systemgeneralised method of moments (SGMM) technique and the panel vector error correction model (VECM) Granger causality framework. While the SGMM was used to assess the impact of foreign aid on extreme poverty, the panel VECM Granger causality was used to examine the direction of causality between foreign aid poverty. The SGMM was used because of its ability to deal with endogeneity by controlling for simultaneity and unobserved heterogeneity, whereas the panel VECM was preferred because the variables were stationary and cointegrated.
Economics
D. Phil. (Economics)