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Artykuły w czasopismach na temat „Anthropogenic forcing”

Autor: Grafiati

Data publikacji: 12 października 2024

Data aktualizacji: 31 lipca 2025

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1

Sexton, David M. H., Howard Grubb, Keith P. Shine, and Chris K. Folland. "Design and Analysis of Climate Model Experiments for the Efficient Estimation of Anthropogenic Signals." Journal of Climate 16, no. 9 (2003): 1320–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442-16.9.1320.

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Abstract Presented herein is an experimental design that allows the effects of several radiative forcing factors on climate to be estimated as precisely as possible from a limited suite of atmosphere-only general circulation model (GCM) integrations. The forcings include the combined effect of observed changes in sea surface temperatures, sea ice extent, stratospheric (volcanic) aerosols, and solar output, plus the individual effects of several anthropogenic forcings. A single linear statistical model is used to estimate the forcing effects, each of which is represented by its global mean radi

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2

Polson, Debbie, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Xuebin Zhang, and Timothy J. Osborn. "Causes of Robust Seasonal Land Precipitation Changes*." Journal of Climate 26, no. 17 (2013): 6679–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00474.1.

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Abstract Historical simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archive are used to calculate the zonal-mean change in seasonal land precipitation for the second half of the twentieth century in response to a range of external forcings, including anthropogenic and natural forcings combined (ALL), greenhouse gas forcing, anthropogenic aerosol forcing, anthropogenic forcings combined, and natural forcing. These simulated patterns of change are used as fingerprints in a detection and attribution study applied to four different gridded observational datasets of gl

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3

Beenstock, M., Y. Reingewertz, and N. Paldor. "Polynomial cointegration tests of anthropogenic impact on global warming." Earth System Dynamics Discussions 3, no. 2 (2012): 561–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esdd-3-561-2012.

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Abstract. We use statistical methods for nonstationary time series to test the anthropogenic interpretation of global warming (AGW), according to which an increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations raised global temperature in the 20th century. Specifically, the methodology of polynomial cointegration is used to test AGW since during the observation period (1880–2007) global temperature and solar irradiance are stationary in 1st differences whereas greenhouse gases and aerosol forcings are stationary in 2nd differences. We show that although these anthropogenic forcings share a comm

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4

Knutson, T. R., T. L. Delworth, K. W. Dixon, et al. "Assessment of Twentieth-Century Regional Surface Temperature Trends Using the GFDL CM2 Coupled Models." Journal of Climate 19, no. 9 (2006): 1624–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli3709.1.

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Abstract Historical climate simulations of the period 1861–2000 using two new Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) global climate models (CM2.0 and CM2.1) are compared with observed surface temperatures. All-forcing runs include the effects of changes in well-mixed greenhouse gases, ozone, sulfates, black and organic carbon, volcanic aerosols, solar flux, and land cover. Indirect effects of tropospheric aerosols on clouds and precipitation processes are not included. Ensembles of size 3 (CM2.0) and 5 (CM2.1) with all forcings are analyzed, along with smaller ensembles of natural-only a

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5

Penner, J. E., Y. Chen, M. Wang, and X. Liu. "Possible influence of anthropogenic aerosols on cirrus clouds and anthropogenic forcing." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 8, no. 4 (2008): 13903–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-8-13903-2008.

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Abstract. Cirrus clouds have a net warming effect on the atmosphere and cover about 30% of the Earth's area. Aerosol particles initiate ice formation in the upper troposphere through modes of action that include homogeneous freezing of solution droplets, heterogeneous nucleation on solid particles immersed in a solution, and deposition nucleation of vapor onto solid particles. Here, we examine the possible change in ice number concentration from anthropogenic soot originating from surface sources of fossil fuel and biomass burning, from anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, and from aircraft that de

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6

Hao, Xin, Shengping He, Huijun Wang, and Tingting Han. "Quantifying the contribution of anthropogenic influence to the East Asian winter monsoon in 1960–2012." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 19, no. 15 (2019): 9903–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-9903-2019.

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Abstract. The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is greatly influenced by many factors that can be classified as anthropogenic forcing and natural forcing. Here we explore the contribution of anthropogenic influence to the change in the EAWM over the past decades. Under all forcings observed during 1960–2013 (All-Hist run), the atmospheric general circulation model is able to reproduce the climatology and variability of the EAWM-related surface air temperature and 500 hPa geopotential height and shows a statistically significant decreasing EAWM intensity with a trend coefficient of ∼-0.04 yr−1,

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7

Hansen, J., M. Sato, A. Lacis, and R. Ruedy. "The missing climate forcing." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences 352, no. 1350 (1997): 231–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.1997.0018.

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Observed climate change is consistent with radiative forcings on several time–scales for which the dominant forcings are known, ranging from the few years after a large volcanic eruption to glacial–to–interglacial changes. In the period with most detailed data, 1979 to the present, climate observations contain clear signatures of both natural and anthropogenic forcings. But in the full period since the industrial revolution began, global warming is only about half of that expected due to the principal forcing, increasing greenhouse gases. The direct radiative effect of anthropogenic aerosols c

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8

Baker, Hugh S., Tim Woollings, and Cheikh Mbengue. "Eddy-Driven Jet Sensitivity to Diabatic Heating in an Idealized GCM." Journal of Climate 30, no. 16 (2017): 6413–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0864.1.

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The eddy-driven jet is studied using a dry idealized model to determine its sensitivity to thermal forcings. The jet latitude, speed, and variability are investigated under a series of Gaussian patch thermal forcing simulations applied systematically on a latitude–sigma grid in the troposphere. This work builds on previous studies by isolating the responses of the jet speed and latitude as opposed to combining them into a single annular mode index. It also explores the sensitivity of the jet to much smaller spatial heatings rather than applying forcing patterns to simulate anthropogenic climat

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9

Penner, J. E., Y. Chen, M. Wang, and X. Liu. "Possible influence of anthropogenic aerosols on cirrus clouds and anthropogenic forcing." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 9, no. 3 (2009): 879–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-879-2009.

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Abstract. Cirrus clouds have a net warming effect on the atmosphere and cover about 30% of the Earth's area. Aerosol particles initiate ice formation in the upper troposphere through modes of action that include homogeneous freezing of solution droplets, heterogeneous nucleation on solid particles immersed in a solution, and deposition nucleation of vapor onto solid particles. Here, we examine the possible change in ice number concentration from anthropogenic soot originating from surface sources of fossil fuel and biomass burning, from anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, and from aircraft that de

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10

CHARLSON, R. J., S. E. SCHWARTZ, J. M. HALES, et al. "Climate Forcing by Anthropogenic Aerosols." Science 255, no. 5043 (1992): 423–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.255.5043.423.

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11

Ocko, Ilissa B., V. Ramaswamy, and Yi Ming. "Contrasting Climate Responses to the Scattering and Absorbing Features of Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcings." Journal of Climate 27, no. 14 (2014): 5329–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00401.1.

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Abstract Anthropogenic aerosols comprise optically scattering and absorbing particles, with the principal concentrations being in the Northern Hemisphere, yielding negative and positive global mean radiative forcings, respectively. Aerosols also influence cloud albedo, yielding additional negative radiative forcings. Climate responses to a comprehensive set of isolated aerosol forcing simulations are investigated in a coupled atmosphere–ocean framework, forced by preindustrial to present-day aerosol-induced radiative perturbations. Atmospheric and oceanic climate responses (including precipita

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12

Fyfe, John C., Viatcheslav V. Kharin, Benjamin D. Santer, Jason N. S. Cole, and Nathan P. Gillett. "Significant impact of forcing uncertainty in a large ensemble of climate model simulations." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118, no. 23 (2021): e2016549118. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2016549118.

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Forcing due to solar and volcanic variability, on the natural side, and greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, on the anthropogenic side, are the main inputs to climate models. Reliable climate model simulations of past and future climate change depend crucially upon them. Here we analyze large ensembles of simulations using a comprehensive Earth System Model to quantify uncertainties in global climate change attributable to differences in prescribed forcings. The different forcings considered here are those used in the two most recent phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP),

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13

Knutson, Thomas R., and Jeffrey Ploshay. "Sea Level Pressure Trends: Model-Based Assessment of Detection, Attribution, and Consistency with CMIP5 Historical Simulations." Journal of Climate 34, no. 1 (2021): 327–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0997.1.

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AbstractObserved sea level pressure (SLP) trends for 1901–10, 1951–10, and 1981–2010 are assessed using two observed data sources (HadSLP2_lowvar and 20CRv3) compared to a CMIP5 multimodel ensemble. The CMIP5 simulations include runs with (i) no external forcing (Control runs), (ii) natural external forcing only (Natural-Forcing), or (iii) natural plus anthropogenic forcings combined (All-Forcings). We assess whether the CMIP5 All-Forcing ensemble is consistent with observations and whether there is model-based evidence for detectable anthropogenic influence for the observed SLP trends. For th

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14

Leibensperger, E. M., L. J. Mickley, D. J. Jacob, et al. "Climatic effects of 1950–2050 changes in US anthropogenic aerosols – Part 1: Aerosol trends and radiative forcing." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 12, no. 7 (2012): 3333–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-3333-2012.

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Abstract. We calculate decadal aerosol direct and indirect (warm cloud) radiative forcings from US anthropogenic sources over the 1950–2050 period. Past and future aerosol distributions are constructed using GEOS-Chem and historical emission inventories and future projections from the IPCC A1B scenario. Aerosol simulations are evaluated with observed spatial distributions and 1980–2010 trends of aerosol concentrations and wet deposition in the contiguous US. Direct and indirect radiative forcing is calculated using the GISS general circulation model and monthly mean aerosol distributions from

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15

Charles, Elodie, Benoit Meyssignac, and Aurélien Ribes. "Observational Constraint on Greenhouse Gas and Aerosol Contributions to Global Ocean Heat Content Changes." Journal of Climate 33, no. 24 (2020): 10579–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0091.1.

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AbstractObservations and climate models are combined to identify an anthropogenic warming signature in the upper ocean heat content (OHC) changes since 1971. We apply a new detection and attribution analysis developed by Ribes et al. that uses a symmetric treatment of the magnitude and the pattern of the climate response to each radiative forcing. A first estimate of the OHC response to natural, anthropogenic, greenhouse gas, and other forcings is derived from a large ensemble of CMIP5 simulations. Observational datasets from historical reconstructions are then used to constrain this estimate.

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16

Zhang, Yu, Zengchao Hao, Xuan Zhang, and Fanghua Hao. "Anthropogenically forced increases in compound dry and hot events at the global and continental scales." Environmental Research Letters 17, no. 2 (2022): 024018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac43e0.

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Abstract Remarkable increases in compound dry and hot events (CDHEs) have been observed in different regions in recent decades. However, the anthropogenic influence on the long-term changes in CDHEs at the global scale has been largely unquantified. In this study, we provide evidence that anthropogenic forcings have contributed to the increased CDHEs over global land areas. We compare the spatial and temporal changes in CDHEs based on climate model simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and observations from different datasets. The results show observed occurrences of C

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17

Wang, Xiaoxin, Xianmei Lang, and Dabang Jiang. "Detectable anthropogenic influence on summer compound hot events over China from 1965 to 2014." Environmental Research Letters 17, no. 3 (2022): 034042. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4d4e.

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Abstract Compared with independent hot days or nights, compound hot extremes have more adverse effects on society. In this study, hot extremes are categorized into three types: independent hot days, independent hot nights and compound hot events combining daytime and nighttime hot extremes based on daily maximum and minimum temperatures. Using observations from the gridded dataset CN05.1 and experiments undertaken with 22 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, we analyze the observed changes in summer hot extremes and compare them with model simulations over China betwee

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18

Ma, Shuangmei, Tianjun Zhou, Dáithí A. Stone, et al. "Detectable Anthropogenic Shift toward Heavy Precipitation over Eastern China." Journal of Climate 30, no. 4 (2017): 1381–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0311.1.

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Abstract Changes in precipitation characteristics directly affect society through their impacts on drought and floods, hydro-dams, and urban drainage systems. Global warming increases the water holding capacity of the atmosphere and thus the risk of heavy precipitation. Here, daily precipitation records from over 700 Chinese stations from 1956 to 2005 are analyzed. The results show a significant shift from light to heavy precipitation over eastern China. An optimal fingerprinting analysis of simulations from 11 climate models driven by different combinations of historical anthropogenic (greenh

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19

Deng, Jiechun, Aiguo Dai, and Haiming Xu. "Nonlinear Climate Responses to Increasing CO2 and Anthropogenic Aerosols Simulated by CESM1." Journal of Climate 33, no. 1 (2019): 281–301. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0195.1.

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Abstract Atmospheric CO2 and anthropogenic aerosols (AA) have increased simultaneously. Because of their opposite radiative effects, these increases may offset each other, which may lead to some nonlinear effects. Here the seasonal and regional characteristics of this nonlinear effect from the CO2 and AA forcings are investigated using the fully coupled Community Earth System Model. Results show that nonlinear effects are small in the global mean of the top-of-the-atmosphere radiative fluxes, surface air temperature, and precipitation. However, significant nonlinear effects exist over the Arct

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20

Shi, Xiangjun, Chunhan Li, Lijuan Li, Wentao Zhang, and Jiaojiao Liu. "Estimating the CMIP6 Anthropogenic Aerosol Radiative Effects with the Advantage of Prescribed Aerosol Forcing." Atmosphere 12, no. 3 (2021): 406. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos12030406.

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The prescribed anthropogenic aerosol forcing recommended by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) was implemented in an atmospheric model. With the reduced complexity of anthropogenic aerosol forcing, each component of anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) can be estimated by one or more calculation methods, especially for instantaneous radiative forcing (RF) from aerosol–radiation interactions (RFari) and aerosol–cloud interactions (RFaci). Simulation results show that the choice of calculation method might impact the magnitude and reliability of RFari. The R

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21

Slangen, Aimée B. A., John A. Church, Xuebin Zhang, and Didier P. Monselesan. "The Sea Level Response to External Forcings in Historical Simulations of CMIP5 Climate Models*." Journal of Climate 28, no. 21 (2015): 8521–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0376.1.

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Abstract Changes in Earth’s climate are influenced by internal climate variability and external forcings, such as changes in solar radiation, volcanic eruptions, anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG), and aerosols. Although the response of surface temperature to external forcings has been studied extensively, this has not been done for sea level. Here, a range of climate model experiments for the twentieth century is used to study the response of global and regional sea level change to external climate forcings. Both the global mean thermosteric sea level and the regional dynamic sea level patt

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22

Gillett, Nathan P., Hideo Shiogama, Bernd Funke, et al. "The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v1.0) contribution to CMIP6." Geoscientific Model Development 9, no. 10 (2016): 3685–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3685-2016.

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Abstract. Detection and attribution (D&amp;A) simulations were important components of CMIP5 and underpinned the climate change detection and attribution assessments of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The primary goals of the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) are to facilitate improved estimation of the contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing changes to observed global warming as well as to observed global and regional changes in other climate variables; to contribute to the estimation of how historical

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23

Schönwiese, Christian-D. Walter, and Sven Brinckmann. "Statistical assessments of anthropogenic and natural global climate forcing. An update." Meteorologische Zeitschrift 19, no. 1 (2010): 3–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2010/0421.

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Shi, Xiangjun, Wentao Zhang, and Jiaojiao Liu. "Comparison of Anthropogenic Aerosol Climate Effects among Three Climate Models with Reduced Complexity." Atmosphere 10, no. 8 (2019): 456. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos10080456.

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The same prescribed anthropogenic aerosol forcing was implemented into three climate models. The atmosphere components of these participating climate models were the GAMIL, ECHAM, and CAM models. Ensemble simulations were carried out to obtain a reliable estimate of anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF). The ensemble mean ERFs from these three participating models with this aerosol forcing were −0.27, −0.63, and −0.54 W∙m−2. The model diversity in ERF is clearly reduced as compared with those based on the models’ own default approaches (−1.98, −0.21, and −2.22 W∙m−2). This is

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25

Chan, Duo, and Qigang Wu. "Attributing Observed SST Trends and Subcontinental Land Warming to Anthropogenic Forcing during 1979–2005." Journal of Climate 28, no. 8 (2015): 3152–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00253.1.

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Abstract Attribution studies conclude that it is extremely likely that most observed global- and continental-scale surface air temperature (SAT) warming since 1950 was caused by anthropogenic forcing, but some difficulties and uncertainties remain in attribution of warming in subcontinental regions and at time scales less than 50 years. This study uses global observations and CMIP5 simulations with various forcings, covering 1979–2005, and control runs to develop confidence intervals, to attribute regional trends of SAT and sea surface temperature (SST) to natural and anthropogenic causes. Obs

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26

Diao, Chenrui, Yangyang Xu, and Shang-Ping Xie. "Anthropogenic aerosol effects on tropospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (1980–2020): separating the role of zonally asymmetric forcings." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 21, no. 24 (2021): 18499–518. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-18499-2021.

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Abstract. Anthropogenic aerosols (AAs) induce global and regional tropospheric circulation adjustments due to the radiative energy perturbations. The overall cooling effects of AA, which mask a portion of global warming, have been the subject of many studies but still have large uncertainty. The interhemispheric contrast in AA forcing has also been demonstrated to induce a major shift in atmospheric circulation. However, the zonal redistribution of AA emissions since start of the 20th century, with a notable decline in the Western Hemisphere (North America and Europe) and a continuous increase

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Lohmann, U., L. Rotstayn, T. Storelvmo, et al. "Total aerosol effect: radiative forcing or radiative flux perturbation?" Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 9, no. 6 (2009): 25633–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-9-25633-2009.

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Abstract. Uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcings, especially those associated with clouds, contribute to a large extent to uncertainties in the total anthropogenic forcing. The interaction of aerosols with clouds and radiation introduces feedbacks which can affect the rate of rain formation. In former assessments of aerosol radiative forcings, these effects have not been quantified. Also, with global aerosol-climate models simulating interactively aerosols and cloud microphysical properties, a quantification of the aerosol forcings in the traditional way is difficult to properly define. H

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Lohmann, U., L. Rotstayn, T. Storelvmo, et al. "Total aerosol effect: radiative forcing or radiative flux perturbation?" Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 10, no. 7 (2010): 3235–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-3235-2010.

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Abstract. Uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcings, especially those associated with clouds, contribute to a large extent to uncertainties in the total anthropogenic forcing. The interaction of aerosols with clouds and radiation introduces feedbacks which can affect the rate of precipitation formation. In former assessments of aerosol radiative forcings, these effects have not been quantified. Also, with global aerosol-climate models simulating interactively aerosols and cloud microphysical properties, a quantification of the aerosol forcings in the traditional way is difficult to define pr

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Mikšovský, J., E. Holtanová, and P. Pišoft. "Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data." Earth System Dynamics Discussions 6, no. 2 (2015): 2339–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-2339-2015.

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Abstract. Monthly near-surface temperature anomalies from several gridded datasets (GISTEMP, Berkeley Earth, MLOST, HadCRUT4, 20th Century Reanalysis) were investigated and compared with regard to the presence of components attributable to external climate forcings (anthropogenic, solar and volcanic) and to major internal climate variability modes (El Niño/Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and variability characterized by the Trans-Polar Index). Multiple linear regression was used to separate components related to i

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Fiedler, Stephanie, Bjorn Stevens, Matthew Gidden, Steven J. Smith, Keywan Riahi, and Detlef van Vuuren. "First forcing estimates from the future CMIP6 scenarios of anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomey effect." Geoscientific Model Development 12, no. 3 (2019): 989–1007. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-989-2019.

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Abstract. We present the first forcing interpretation of the future anthropogenic aerosol scenarios of CMIP6 with the simple plumes parameterisation MACv2-SP. The nine scenarios for 2015 to 2100 are based on anthropogenic aerosol emissions for use in CMIP6 (Riahi et al., 2017; Gidden et al., 2018). We use the emissions to scale the observationally informed anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and the associated effect on the cloud albedo of present-day (Fiedler et al., 2017; Stevens et al., 2017) into the future. The resulting scenarios in MACv2-SP are then ranked according to their streng

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Rozanov, Eugene V., Tatiana A. Egorova, Alexander I. Shapiro, and Werner K. Schmutz. "Modeling of the atmospheric response to a strong decrease of the solar activity." Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union 7, S286 (2011): 215–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1743921312004863.

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AbstractWe estimate the consequences of a potential strong decrease of the solar activity using the model simulations of the future driven by pure anthropogenic forcing as well as its combination with different solar activity related factors: total solar irradiance, spectral solar irradiance, energetic electron precipitation, solar protons and galactic cosmic rays. The comparison of the model simulations shows that introduced strong decrease of solar activity can lead to some delay of the ozone recovery and partially compensate greenhouse warming acting in the direction opposite to anthropogen

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32

Triacca, Umberto, and Antonello Pasini. "On the Unforced or Forced Nature of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation: A Linear and Nonlinear Causality Analysis." Climate 12, no. 7 (2024): 90. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cli12070090.

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In recent years, there has been intense debate in the literature as to whether the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a genuine representation of natural climate variability or is substantially driven by external factors. Here, we perform an analysis of the influence of external (natural and anthropogenic) forcings on the AMO behaviour by means of a linear Granger causality analysis and by a nonlinear extension of this method. Our results show that natural forcings do not have any causal role on AMO in both linear and nonlinear analyses. Instead, a certain influence of anthropogenic fo

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Pinault, Jean-Louis. "Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing: Positive Feedbacks." Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 6, no. 4 (2018): 146. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jmse6040146.

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This article is based on recent work intended to estimate the impact of solar forcing mediated by long-period ocean Rossby waves that are resonantly forced—the ‘Gyral Rossby Waves’ (GRWs). Here, we deduce both the part of the anthropogenic and climate components within the instrumental surface temperature spatial patterns. The natural variations in temperature are estimated from a weighted sum of sea surface temperature anomalies in preselected areas of subtropical gyres representative of long-period GRWs. The temperature response to anthropogenic forcing is deduced by subtracting the climate

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Dunstone, N. J., D. M. Smith, B. B. B. Booth, L. Hermanson, and R. Eade. "Anthropogenic aerosol forcing of Atlantic tropical storms." Nature Geoscience 6, no. 7 (2013): 534–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1854.

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Erickson, David J., Robert J. Oglesby, and Susan Marshall. "Climate response to indirect anthropogenic sulfate forcing." Geophysical Research Letters 22, no. 15 (1995): 2017–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/95gl01660.

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Fyfe, W. S. "Global change: anthropogenic forcing?the moving target." Terra Nova 4, no. 3 (1992): 284–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3121.1992.tb00816.x.

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Ramaswamy, V., W. Collins, J. Haywood, et al. "Radiative Forcing of Climate: The Historical Evolution of the Radiative Forcing Concept, the Forcing Agents and their Quantification, and Applications." Meteorological Monographs 59 (January 1, 2019): 14.1–14.101. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/amsmonographs-d-19-0001.1.

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Abstract We describe the historical evolution of the conceptualization, formulation, quantification, application, and utilization of “radiative forcing” (RF) of Earth’s climate. Basic theories of shortwave and longwave radiation were developed through the nineteenth and twentieth centuries and established the analytical framework for defining and quantifying the perturbations to Earth’s radiative energy balance by natural and anthropogenic influences. The insight that Earth’s climate could be radiatively forced by changes in carbon dioxide, first introduced in the nineteenth century, gained em

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38

Rupp, David E., Sihan Li, Philip W. Mote, Neil Massey, Sarah N. Sparrow, and David C. H. Wallom. "Influence of the Ocean and Greenhouse Gases on Severe Drought Likelihood in the Central United States in 2012." Journal of Climate 30, no. 5 (2017): 1789–806. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0294.1.

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Abstract The impacts of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and anthropogenic greenhouse gases on the likelihood of extreme drought occurring in the central United States in the year 2012 were investigated using large-ensemble simulations from a global atmospheric climate model. Two sets of experiments were conducted. In the first, the simulated hydroclimate of 2012 was compared to a baseline period (1986–2014) to investigate the impact of SSTs. In the second, the hydroclimate in a world with 2012-level anthropogenic forcing was compared to five “counterfactual” versions of a 2012 world un

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39

Leibensperger, E. M., L. J. Mickley, D. J. Jacob, et al. "Climatic effects of 1950–2050 changes in US anthropogenic aerosols – Part 1: Aerosol trends and radiative forcing." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 11, no. 8 (2011): 24085–125. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-11-24085-2011.

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Abstract. We use the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model combined with the GISS general circulation model to calculate the aerosol direct and indirect (warm cloud) radiative forcings from US anthropogenic sources over the 1950–2050 period, based on historical emission inventories and future projections from the IPCC A1B scenario. The aerosol simulation is evaluated with observed spatial distributions and 1980–2010 trends of aerosol concentrations and wet deposition in the contiguous US. The radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols is strongly localized over the eastern US. We find that

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Zhu, Xiaowei, Zhiyong Kong, Jian Cao, Ruina Gao, and Na Gao. "Attributing the Decline of Evapotranspiration over the Asian Monsoon Region during the Period 1950–2014 in CMIP6 Models." Remote Sensing 16, no. 11 (2024): 2027. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs16112027.

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Evapotranspiration (ET) accounts for over half of the moisture source of Asian monsoon rainfall, which has been significantly altered by anthropogenic forcings. However, how individual anthropogenic forcing affects the ET over monsoonal Asia is still elusive. In this study, we found a significant decline in ET over the Asian monsoon region during the period of 1950–2014 in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. The attribution analysis suggests that anthropogenic aerosol forcing is the primary cause of the weakening in ET in the historical simulation, while it is only pa

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Smith, Christopher J., Ryan J. Kramer, Gunnar Myhre, et al. "Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 20, no. 16 (2020): 9591–618. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020.

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Abstract. The effective radiative forcing, which includes the instantaneous forcing plus adjustments from the atmosphere and surface, has emerged as the key metric of evaluating human and natural influence on the climate. We evaluate effective radiative forcing and adjustments in 17 contemporary climate models that are participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and have contributed to the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP). Present-day (2014) global-mean anthropogenic forcing relative to pre-industrial (1850) levels from climate models stands at 2.0

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O'Connor, Fiona M., N. Luke Abraham, Mohit Dalvi, et al. "Assessment of pre-industrial to present-day anthropogenic climate forcing in UKESM1." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 21, no. 2 (2021): 1211–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-1211-2021.

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Abstract. Quantifying forcings from anthropogenic perturbations to the Earth system (ES) is important for understanding changes in climate since the pre-industrial (PI) period. Here, we quantify and analyse a wide range of present-day (PD) anthropogenic effective radiative forcings (ERFs) with the UK's Earth System Model (ESM), UKESM1, following the protocols defined by the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) and the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). In particular, quantifying ERFs that include rapid adjustments within a full ESM enables the

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Mikšovský, Jiří, Eva Holtanová, and Petr Pišoft. "Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data." Earth System Dynamics 7, no. 1 (2016): 231–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-231-2016.

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Abstract. Monthly near-surface temperature anomalies from several gridded data sets (GISTEMP, Berkeley Earth, MLOST, HadCRUT4, 20th Century Reanalysis) were investigated and compared with regard to the presence of components attributable to external climate forcings (associated with anthropogenic greenhouse gases, as well as solar and volcanic activity) and to major internal climate variability modes (El Niño/Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and variability characterized by the Trans-Polar Index). Multiple linear r

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Stevens, Bjorn, Stephanie Fiedler, Stefan Kinne, et al. "MACv2-SP: a parameterization of anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomey effect for use in CMIP6." Geoscientific Model Development 10, no. 1 (2017): 433–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-433-2017.

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Abstract. A simple plume implementation of the second version (v2) of the Max Planck Institute Aerosol Climatology, MACv2-SP, is described. MACv2-SP provides a prescription of anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomey effect. It was created to provide a harmonized description of post-1850 anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing for climate modeling studies. MACv2-SP has been designed to be easy to implement, change and use, and thereby enable studies exploring the climatic effects of different patterns of aerosol radiative forcing, including a Twomey effect. MACv2-SP is

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Mueller, B. L., N. P. Gillett, A. H. Monahan, and F. W. Zwiers. "Attribution of Arctic Sea Ice Decline from 1953 to 2012 to Influences from Natural, Greenhouse Gas, and Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcing." Journal of Climate 31, no. 19 (2018): 7771–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-17-0552.1.

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The paper presents results from a climate change detection and attribution study on the decline of Arctic sea ice extent in September for the 1953–2012 period. For this period three independently derived observational datasets and simulations from multiple climate models are available to attribute observed changes in the sea ice extent to known climate forcings. Here we direct our attention to the combined cooling effect from other anthropogenic forcing agents (mainly aerosols), which has potentially masked a fraction of greenhouse gas–induced Arctic sea ice decline. The presented detection an

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Collins, William D., Daniel R. Feldman, Chaincy Kuo, and Newton H. Nguyen. "Large regional shortwave forcing by anthropogenic methane informed by Jovian observations." Science Advances 4, no. 9 (2018): eaas9593. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aas9593.

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Recently, it was recognized that widely used calculations of methane radiative forcing systematically underestimated its global value by 15% by omitting its shortwave effects. We show that shortwave forcing by methane can be accurately calculated despite considerable uncertainty and large gaps in its shortwave spectroscopy. We demonstrate that the forcing is insensitive, even when confronted with much more complete methane absorption spectra extending to violet light wavelengths derived from observations of methane-rich Jovian planets. We undertake the first spatially resolved global calculati

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Beenstock, M., Y. Reingewertz, and N. Paldor. "Polynomial cointegration tests of anthropogenic impact on global warming." Earth System Dynamics 3, no. 2 (2012): 173–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-3-173-2012.

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Abstract. We use statistical methods for nonstationary time series to test the anthropogenic interpretation of global warming (AGW), according to which an increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations raised global temperature in the 20th century. Specifically, the methodology of polynomial cointegration is used to test AGW since during the observation period (1880–2007) global temperature and solar irradiance are stationary in 1st differences, whereas greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings are stationary in 2nd differences. We show that although these anthropogenic forcings share a commo

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Yun, Y., J. E. Penner, and O. Popovicheva. "The effects of hygroscopicity of fossil fuel combustion aerosols on mixed-phase clouds." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 12, no. 8 (2012): 19987–20006. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-12-19987-2012.

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Abstract. Fossil fuel black carbon and organic matter (ffBC/OM) are often emitted together with sulfate, which coats the surface of these particles and changes their hygroscopicity. Observational studies show that the hygroscopicity of soot particles can modulate their ice nucleation ability. To address this, we implemented a scheme that uses 3 levels of soot hygroscopicity (hydrophobic, hydrophilic and hygroscopic) and used laboratory data to specify their ice nuclei abilities. The new scheme results in significant changes to anthropogenic forcing in mixed-phase clouds. The net forcing in off

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Quaas, Johannes, Hailing Jia, Chris Smith, et al. "Robust evidence for reversal of the trend in aerosol effective climate forcing." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 22, no. 18 (2022): 12221–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12221-2022.

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Abstract. Anthropogenic aerosols exert a cooling influence that offsets part of the greenhouse gas warming. Due to their short tropospheric lifetime of only several days, the aerosol forcing responds quickly to emissions. Here, we present and discuss the evolution of the aerosol forcing since 2000. There are multiple lines of evidence that allow us to robustly conclude that the anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) – both aerosol–radiation interactions (ERFari) and aerosol–cloud interactions (ERFaci) – has become less negative globally, i.e. the trend in aerosol effective rad

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Stier, P., J. H. Seinfeld, S. Kinne, and O. Boucher. "Aerosol absorption and radiative forcing." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 7, no. 3 (2007): 7171–233. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-7-7171-2007.

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Abstract. We present a comprehensive examination of aerosol absorption with a focus on evaluating the sensitivity of the global distribution of aerosol absorption to key uncertainties in the process representation. For this purpose we extended the comprehensive aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM by effective medium approximations for the calculation of aerosol effective refractive indices, updated black carbon refractive indices, new cloud radiative properties considering the effect of aerosol inclusions, as well as by modules for the calculation of long-wave aerosol radiative properties and ins

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