Gotowe bibliografie tematyczne / Models and model making, 1952

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Gotowa bibliografia na temat „Models and model making, 1952”

Autor: Grafiati

Data publikacji: 26 lipca 2024

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Artykuły w czasopismach na temat "Models and model making, 1952"

DÜPPE, TILL. "ARROW AND DEBREU DE-HOMOGENIZED." Journal of the History of Economic Thought 34, no. 4 (2012): 491–514. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1053837212000491.

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To this day, the so-called Arrow–Debreu model represents a trademark of rigorous economic research—be it as a benchmark for extending the model, for weakening its assumptions, for structuring data sets, or for providing alternative models. But who should earn the credit? Arrow or Debreu? This essay presents “the making of” Arrow’s and Debreu’s joint article of 1954 as documented in their extensive letter exchange between their first contact in February 1952 and submission in May 1953. I show, pivotally, that Arrow and Debreu did not share the same interest in their work, that they played different roles, and drew different lessons from it. Moreover, neither Arrow nor Debreu can be identified with the way the profession would later refer to the Arrow–Debreu model. To the contrary, both, in their own ways, sought to counter what others perceived as limitations when placing their hopes in the model.

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Ankeny, Rachel A., Sabina Leonelli, Nicole C. Nelson, and Edmund Ramsden. "Making Organisms Model Human Behavior: Situated Models in North-American Alcohol Research, since 1950." Science in Context 27, no. 3 (2014): 485–509. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0269889714000155.

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ArgumentWe examine the criteria used to validate the use of nonhuman organisms in North-American alcohol addiction research from the 1950s to the present day. We argue that this field, where the similarities between behaviors in humans and non-humans are particularly difficult to assess, has addressed questions of model validity by transforming the situatedness of non-human organisms into an experimental tool. We demonstrate that model validity does not hinge on the standardization of one type of organism in isolation, as often the case with genetic model organisms. Rather, organisms are viewed as necessarily situated: they cannot be understood as a model for human behavior in isolation from their environmental conditions. Hence the environment itself is standardized as part of the modeling process; and model validity is assessed with reference to the environmental conditions under which organisms are studied.

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Heiderman, Ryan R., and Mark J. Kimsey. "A species-specific, site-sensitive maximum stand density index model for Pacific Northwest conifer forests." Canadian Journal of Forest Research 51, no. 8 (2021): 1166–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/cjfr-2020-0426.

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Maximum stand density index (SDIMAX) models were developed for important Pacific Northwest conifers of western Oregon and Washington, USA, based on site and species influences and interactions. Inventory and monitoring data from numerous federal, state, and private forest management groups were obtained throughout the region to ensure a wide coverage of site characteristics. These observations include information on tree size, number, and species composition. The effects and influence on the self-thinning frontier of plot-specific factors such as climate, topography, soils, and geology, as well as species composition, were evaluated based on geographic location using a multistep approach to analysis involving linear quantile mixed models, random forest, and stochastic frontier functions. The self-thinning slope of forest stands dominated by Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) was found to be –1.517 and that of stands dominated by western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg.) was found to be –1.461, leading to regionwide modelled SDIMAX values at the 95th percentile of 1728 and 1952 trees per hectare, respectively. The regional model of site-specific SDIMAX will support forest managers in decision-making regarding density management and species selection to more efficiently utilize site resources toward healthy, productive forests.

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Ramadhan, Ali J., Tufleuddin Biswas, Soumik Ray, et al. "Modeling and Forecasting of Coconut Area, Production, and Productivity Using a Time Series Model." BIO Web of Conferences 97 (2024): 00113. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/bioconf/20249700113.

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The study aimed to compare ARIMA and Holt's models for predicting coconut metrics in Kerala. The coconut data series was collected from the period 1957 to 2019. Of this, 80% of the data (from 1957 to 2007) is treated as training data, and the rest (20% from 2008 to 2019) is treated as testing data. Ideal models were selected based on lower AIC and BIC values. Their accuracy was evaluated through error estimation on testing data, revealing Holt's exponential, linear, and ARIMA (0,1,0) models as the bestfit choices for predicting coconut area, production, and productivity respectively. After using the testing data, we tried for the forecasting for 2020-2024 using these models, and the DM test confirmed their significant forecasting accuracy. This comprehensive analysis provides valuable insights into effective prediction models for coconut-related metrics, offering a foundation for informed decision-making and future projections.

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Juanita M. Costillas and Lorelie P. Duarte. "MODELLING PREDICTORS OF ENGLISH PROFICIENCY VIA REASONING ATTRIBUTES AMONG COLLEGE FRESHMEN." Journal of Educational and Human Resource Development (JEHRD) 2 (December 10, 2014): 133–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.61569/av09wv04.

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This study determined the model that most likely predicts English Proficiency among freshmen. Through secondary data analysis with 277 out of 554 freshmen who were randomly selected, majority were found to be on the below average level, both verbal and non-verbal reasoning attributes. Linear Regression and General Linear Models show the independent variables that most likely predict English Proficiency are verbal comprehension, verbal reasoning, figural reasoning, sex and course enrolled specifically engineering courses. Thus, this study supports James (1950), Freud (1953) and Donges (2001) who pointed out making connections on the importance of reasoning attributes towards mathematics skills of students. This is where the dual process and filtering observation theories are substantiated relative to predicting English Proficiency.

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Cooke, William N., Aneil K. Mishra, Gretchen M. Spreitzer, and Mary Tschirhart. "The Determinants of NLRB Decision-Making Revisited." ILR Review 48, no. 2 (1995): 237–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/001979399504800203.

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The authors develop a model of NLRB decision-making that, unlike the models employed in previous studies, distinguishes between decision-making in more important, complex cases and less important, simpler cases. Using a representative sample of Board decisions over 1957–86, they find that in deciding the minority (20%) of disputes that were particularly important or complex, Board members were influenced by their personal preferences and those of Presidents who appointed them—a finding consistent with the results of previous studies. In the remaining cases (about 80%), however, Board members were influenced in their decisions by little more than the recommendations of regional offices and administrative law judges. Another finding that substantially modifies the conclusions of earlier studies is that Board members appear to have been highly influenced by their accountability to the public when deciding more important, complex cases.

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McCarty, Nolan M., and Keith T. Poole. "An Empirical Spatial Model of Congressional Campaigns." Political Analysis 7 (1998): 1–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pan/7.1.1.

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Testing and estimating formal models of political behavior has not advanced as far as theoretical applications. One of the major literatures in formal theory is the spatial model of electoral competition which has its origins in the work of Black (1948) and Downs (1957). These models are used to make predictions about the policy positions candidates take in order to win elections. A lack of data on these candidate positions, especially challengers who never serve in Congress, has made direct testing of these models on congressional elections difficult.Recently, researchers have begun to incorporate campaign finance into the standard Downsian model. These models of position-induced contributions examine the tradeoff that candidates make between choosing positions favorable to interest group contributors and positions favorable to voters. A major premise of these models is that interest group contributions are based on the policy positions of candidates. This has been borne out empirically in the case of incumbents, but not challengers.To test key hypotheses of these models, we develop a simple spatial model of position-induced campaign contributions where the PAC's decision to contribute or abstain from each race is a function of the policy distance between the PAC and the candidates. We use data from political action committee contributions in order to estimate the locations of incumbents, challengers and PACs. Our model reliably estimates the spatial positions as well as correctly predicts nearly 74 percent of the contribution and abstention decisions of the PACs. Conditional upon making a contribution, we correctly predict the contribution in 94 percent of the cases. These results are strong evidence for position-induced campaign contributions. Furthermore, our estimates of candidate positions allow us to address issues of platform convergence between candidates.

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COLLANTES, FERNANDO. "Dairy Products and Shifts in Western Models of Food Consumption since 1950: A Spanish Perspective." Rural History 26, no. 2 (2015): 249–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0956793315000060.

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Abstract:Through a case study of dairy products in Spain, this article discusses the evolution of what economist Louis Malassis called ‘food consumption models’ in the West from the Second World War. Two distinct consumption models are identified: a first model based on the massification of milk consumption, and a second model featuring decreasing dairy consumption, an increasing role for second-degree processed products and the emergence of new consumer segmentations. Rather than a sudden shift from the first to the second model, there was a punctuated sequence comprising an intermediate transition period in the last two decades of the twentieth century. Using an evolutionary political economy approach, I argue that the key to this transition was a transformation in consumer preferences resulting not only from changes in nutritional discourse, but also from changes in the profit making strategies of dairy agribusinesses and from the interaction of both trajectories of structural change with consumer agency.

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Schembs, Katharina. "Staging Work in the Corporatist State. Visual Propaganda in Fascist Italy and Peronist Argentina (1922-1955)." Anuario de Historia de América Latina 58 (December 28, 2021): 270–314. http://dx.doi.org/10.15460/jbla.58.162.

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Starting in 1922, Benito Mussolini (1922-1943) reformed Italian labour relations by adopting corporatism. As such, he served as a model for many other heads of state in search of ways out of economic crisis. When the corporatist model spread throughout Latin America in the 1930s and 1940s, the Argentine president Juan Domingo Perón (1946-1955) drew significantly on the Italian precedent. Adhering to an aestheticised concept of politics and making use of modern mass media, both regimes advertised corporatism in their respective visual propaganda, in which the worker came to play a prominent role. The article analyses parallels and differences in the formation of political identities in fascist and Peronist visual media that under both corporatist regimes centred around work. Comparing different role models as they were designed for different members of society, I argue that – apart from gender roles where Peronism resorted to similarly traditional images – Peronist propaganda messages were more future-oriented and inclusive. Racist exclusions of parts of the population from the central worker identity that increasingly characterised fascist propaganda over the course of the 1930s were not adopted in Argentina after 1945. Instead, in state visual media the category of work in its inclusionary dimension served as a promise of belonging to the Peronist community.

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Bhusal, Chhabi Lal. "Models and Algorithms of Abstract Flows in Evacuation Planning." Prāgyik Prabāha 11, no. 1 (2023): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/pp.v11i1.55501.

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Flows over time generalize classical network flows by introducing a notion of time. Each arc is equipped with a transit time that specifies how long flow takes to traverse it, while flow rates may vary over time within the given edge capacities. Ford and Fulkerson’s original 1956 max flow/min cut paper formulated max flow in terms of flows on paths. In 1974, Hoffman pointed out that Ford and Fulkerson’s original proof was quite abstract, and applied to a wide range of max flow-like problems. In this abstract model we have capacitated elements and linearly ordered subsets of elements called paths that satisfy switching property. When two paths P and Q cross at an element (node) then there must be a path that is a subset of the first path up to the crossing element and a subset of the second path after the crossing element. Contraflow is a widely accepted solution approach that increases the flow and decreases the evacuation time making the traffic smooth during evacuation by reversing the required road directions from the risk areas to the safe places. In this paper, we integrate the abstract flow with contraflow, give mathematical formulations of these models and present efficient polynomial time algorithms for solving the abstract contraflow problems.

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Rozprawy doktorskie na temat "Models and model making, 1952"

Wångmar, Erik. "Från sockenkommun till storkommun : En analys av storkommunreformens genomförande 1939-1952 i en nationell och lokal kontext." Doctoral thesis, Växjö universitet, Institutionen för humaniora, 2003. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:vxu:diva-384.

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The primary aim of this study is to provide a deeper and more complete understanding of why the great municipal amalgamation (storkommunreformen) during the 1940s became the political solution to the problem that the Government believed many of Sweden’s municipalities had in satisfactorily providing for a local welfare society. The study also describes the results of this large-scale reorganization process. The events examined include the political decision-making process at the national level that took place during 1939-1949, as well as the regional/local realization of these decisions during 1946-1952. The parliamentary treatment of the municipal division issue should be viewed as a good example of what researchers have termed a Swedish decision-making model. One clear manifestation of this was the fact that the national commission that investigated the question primarily formulated the principles for the reform. The committee’s proposal received strong endorsements in the reports from the reviewers of the proposal. The government authorities and many of the municipalities felt that a new division of municipalities was justified. Opposition that did occur came mostly from rural municipalities with small populations. Many of these municipalities believed that the present municipal divisions functioned well as they were. Of those municipalities that were affected by amalgamation, 39 percent of them did not agree with the decision. The majority of these could agree to merge with other municipalities, but not with the municipalities stipulated by the authorities. Considering the fact that the then current divisions were based on a long tradition, demands for retaining independence could have been greater. At the same time, it should be borne in mind that 66 percent of all larger municipalities were formed using some level of force. This still indicated a relatively widely distributed opposition to the amalgamation decisions, however.

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Ouederni, Bechir Nacer. "Development of a strategic capital-expenditure decision model incorporating the product abandonment option." Diss., Virginia Tech, 1992. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/39036.

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Olid, Pilar. "Making Models with Bayes." CSUSB ScholarWorks, 2017. https://scholarworks.lib.csusb.edu/etd/593.

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Bayesian statistics is an important approach to modern statistical analyses. It allows us to use our prior knowledge of the unknown parameters to construct a model for our data set. The foundation of Bayesian analysis is Bayes' Rule, which in its proportional form indicates that the posterior is proportional to the prior times the likelihood. We will demonstrate how we can apply Bayesian statistical techniques to fit a linear regression model and a hierarchical linear regression model to a data set. We will show how to apply different distributions to Bayesian analyses and how the use of a prior affects the model. We will also make a comparison between the Bayesian approach and the traditional frequentist approach to data analyses.

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Saboo, Pallabi. "A decision model to aid entry-mode strategy selection." Thesis, This resource online, 1992. http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-09122009-040423/.

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Cho, Young Jin. "Effects of decomposition level on the intrarater reliability of multiattribute alternative evaluation." Diss., This resource online, 1992. http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-06062008-171537/.

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Heller, Collin M. "A computational model of engineering decision making." Thesis, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/50272.

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The research objective of this thesis is to formulate and demonstrate a computational framework for modeling the design decisions of engineers. This framework is intended to be descriptive in nature as opposed to prescriptive or normative; the output of the model represents a plausible result of a designer's decision making process. The framework decomposes the decision into three elements: the problem statement, the designer's beliefs about the alternatives, and the designer's preferences. Multi-attribute utility theory is used to capture designer preferences for multiple objectives under uncertainty. Machine-learning techniques are used to store the designer's knowledge and to make Bayesian inferences regarding the attributes of alternatives. These models are integrated into the framework of a Markov decision process to simulate multiple sequential decisions. The overall framework enables the designer's decision problem to be transformed into an optimization problem statement; the simulated designer selects the alternative with the maximum expected utility. Although utility theory is typically viewed as a normative decision framework, the perspective in this research is that the approach can be used in a descriptive context for modeling rational and non-time critical decisions by engineering designers. This approach is intended to enable the formalisms of utility theory to be used to design human subjects experiments involving engineers in design organizations based on pairwise lotteries and other methods for preference elicitation. The results of these experiments would substantiate the selection of parameters in the model to enable it to be used to diagnose potential problems in engineering design projects. The purpose of the decision-making framework is to enable the development of a design process simulation of an organization involved in the development of a large-scale complex engineered system such as an aircraft or spacecraft. The decision model will allow researchers to determine the broader effects of individual engineering decisions on the aggregate dynamics of the design process and the resulting performance of the designed artifact itself. To illustrate the model's applicability in this context, the framework is demonstrated on three example problems: a one-dimensional decision problem, a multidimensional turbojet design problem, and a variable fidelity analysis problem. Individual utility functions are developed for designers in a requirements-driven design problem and then combined into a multi-attribute utility function. Gaussian process models are used to represent the designer's beliefs about the alternatives, and a custom covariance function is formulated to more accurately represent a designer's uncertainty in beliefs about the design attributes.

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Duan, Chunming. "A unified decision analysis framework for robust system design evaluation in the face of uncertainty." Diss., This resource online, 1992. http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-06062008-170155/.

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Andrews, Rick L. "Temporal changes in marketing mix effectiveness." Diss., This resource online, 1992. http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-07282008-134759/.

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Abbas, Mustafa Sulaiman. "Consistency Analysis for Judgment Quantification in Hierarchical Decision Model." PDXScholar, 2016. https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds/2699.

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The objective of this research is to establish consistency thresholds linked to alpha (α) levels for HDM’s (Hierarchical Decision Model) judgment quantification method. Measuring consistency in order to control it is a crucial and inseparable part of any AHP/HDM experiment. The researchers on the subject recommend establishing thresholds that are statistically based on hypothesis testing, and are linked to the number of decision variables and (α) level. Such thresholds provide the means with which to evaluate the soundness and validity of an AHP/HDM decision. The linkage of thresholds to (α) levels allows the decision makers to set an appropriate inconsistency tolerance compatible with the situation at hand. The measurements of judgments are unreliable in the absence of an inconsistency measure that includes acceptable limits. All of this is essential to the credibility of the entire decision making process and hence is extremely useful for practitioners and researchers alike. This research includes distribution fitting for the inconsistencies. It is a valuable and interesting part of the research results and adds usefulness, practicality and insight. The superb fits obtained give confidence that all the statistical inferences based on the fitted distributions accurately reflect the HDM’s inconsistency measure.

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Steffanny, Elaine. "Design communication through model making a taxonomy of physical models in interior design education /." [Ames, Iowa : Iowa State University], 2009. http://gateway.proquest.com/openurl?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:dissertation&res_dat=xri:pqdiss&rft_dat=xri:pqdiss:1468135.

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Książki na temat "Models and model making, 1952"

ill, Fairclough Chris, ed. Model making. F. Watts, 1991.

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Model making. Princeton Architectural Press, 2011.

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Bracewell, Michael. Re-make, re-model: Art, pop, fashion and the making of Roxy Music, 1953-1972. Faber and faber, 2007.

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John, Thompson. Making model horse-drawn vehicles. 3rd ed. John Thompson, 1994.

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Young, Susan Bensema. Guide to making model horse tack. S.B. Young, 1998.

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Mears, Ashley. Pricing beauty: The making of a fashion model. University of California Press, 2011.

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Marrewa, Jennifer. Making a model with solid figures. Weekly Reader Pub., 2008.

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Caket, Colin. Model a monster: Making dinosaurs from everyday materials. Blandford Press, 1986.

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Caket, Colin. Model a monster: Making dinosaurs from everyday materials. Blandford Press, 1986.

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Fordham, Basil F. Making and using working drawings for realistic model animals. Guild of Master Craftsman Publications, 2000.

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Części książek na temat "Models and model making, 1952"

Bayles, Michael D. "Alternative Decision-Making Models." In Procedural Justice. Springer Netherlands, 1990. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-1932-7_8.

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Thomson, Elizabeth. "Dyadic Models of Contraceptive Choice, 1957 and 1975." In Dyadic Decision Making. Springer New York, 1989. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-3516-3_11.

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Altman, Jennifer S., and Jenny Kien. "A Model for Decision Making in the Insect Nervous System." In Nervous Systems in Invertebrates. Springer US, 1987. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4613-1955-9_22.

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Bennett, Elaine. "Folk Theorems for the Proposal-Making Model." In Game Equilibrium Models III. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1991. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-07367-4_6.

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Zhukovin, Vladimir E. "A Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision Making Model." In Optimization Models Using Fuzzy Sets and Possibility Theory. Springer Netherlands, 1987. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-3869-4_14.

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Ditterich, Jochen. "Distinguishing Between Models of Perceptual Decision Making." In An Introduction to Model-Based Cognitive Neuroscience. Springer New York, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4939-2236-9_13.

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Sun, Yong, Colin Fidge, and Lin Ma. "A Flexible Asset Maintenance Decision-Making Process Model." In Asset Condition, Information Systems and Decision Models. Springer London, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-2924-0_8.

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Hellenes, Andreas Mørkved. "Tracing the Nordic model." In The Making and Circulation of Nordic Models, Ideas and Images. Routledge, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003156925-6.

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Granadino, Alan, and Peter Stadius. "Adapting the Swedish model." In The Making and Circulation of Nordic Models, Ideas and Images. Routledge, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003156925-7.

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Kettunen, Pauli, and Klaus Petersen. "Images of the Nordic welfare model." In The Making and Circulation of Nordic Models, Ideas and Images. Routledge, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003156925-3.

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Streszczenia konferencji na temat "Models and model making, 1952"

Dragt, R. C., J. Kraus, and C. L. Walters. "Calculation of Shell Element Failure Based on the State of Stress Inside of a Neck." In ASME 2015 34th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2015-41384.

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Simulation of failure in thin-walled structures is critical for the correct determination of crash performance of ships and offshore structures. Typically, shell elements are used, but these elements are not able to adequately capture local failure, especially inside of a neck. This paper addresses these gaps by adapting the Bridgman (1952) model of a neck inside of a plate by making it three-dimensional and offering an estimate of the relationship between state parameters of a shell element and the geometry inside of a neck. Finally, recommendations are also made about how to interface this information with the Modified Mohr-Coulomb failure locus to create a practical algorithm for assessing failure in shell elements.

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Hammer, Peter E., Michael S. Sacks, Pedro J. del Nido, and Robert D. Howe. "Mass-Spring vs. Finite Element Models of Anisotropic Heart Valves: Speed and Accuracy." In ASME 2010 Summer Bioengineering Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/sbc2010-19521.

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Heat valve dysfunction can lead to heart failure and death, and surgery is the standard treatment. Valve repair surgery is performed under cardiopulmonary bypass making it difficult for the surgeon to know if a surgical modification will be effective when blood flow is restored. A surgical planning system has been proposed to improve surgical outcomes by allowing a surgeon to explore valve repair strategies on a computer model of a patient’s valve (1). Many groups have published computational models of heart valves based on the finite element (FE) method, but they are prohibitively slow for simulating valve mechanics in an interactive setting. Mass-spring (MS) networks have been used as an alternative to FE methods for modeling deformable bodies, trading off accuracy for speed.

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Kurowska, Krystyna, Hubert Kryszk, and Ewa Kietlinska. "The Use of Gravity Model in Spatial Planning." In Environmental Engineering. VGTU Technika, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/enviro.2017.109.

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The GIS tools facilitate organised and formal creation of models presenting both the current state of and the forecasted changes in physical environment (ones that will occur if specific conditions are satisfied). Formulated in 1962, D. L. Huff’s algorithm is gaining in popularity nowadays; it helps determine the probability of a particular venue being chosen from amongst several competitive ones. Initially, it was used to define the optimal location of new points of sale; but with the technological progress of the GIS and with an increased demand for studies on distribution of venues or service points, its scope of use in urban planning is becoming more and more extensive. The results of the study support decision-making processes and are invaluable help in selection of optimal locations. This article presents how Huff’s algorithm and Lakshmanan-Hansen’s channel pass-through model can be used in physical planning of cities with the focus on new trade centres. The research was based on the case study of Warsaw – the biggest city in Poland. The analysis conducted showed not only what market share particular centres had, but it also demonstrated what changes could be expected upon appearance of new trade centres.

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Deka, Angshuman, Nima Hamta, Behzad Esmaeilian, and Sara Behdad. "Predictive Modeling Techniques to Forecast Energy Demand in the United States: A Focus on Economic and Demographic Factors." In ASME 2015 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc2015-47474.

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Effective energy planning and governmental decision making policies heavily rely on accurate forecast of energy demand. This paper discusses and compares five different forecasting techniques to model energy demand in the United States using economic and demographic factors. Two Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models, two regression analysis models and one autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model are developed based on historical data from 1950–2013. While ANN model 1 and regression model 1 use Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Gross National Product (GNP) and per capita personal income as independent input factors, ANN model 2 and regression model 2 employ GDP, GNP and population (POP) as the predictive factors. The forecasted values resulted from these models are compared with the forecast made by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the period of 2014–2019. The forecasted results of ANN models and regression model 1 are close to those of the U.S. EIA, however the results of regression model 2 and ARIMA model are significantly different from the forecast made by the U.S. EIA. Finally, a comparison of the forecasted values resulted from three efficient models showed the energy demand would vary between 95.51 and 100.08 quadrillion British thermal unit for the period of 2014–2019.

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Myers, Marie J. "BRIDGING LANGUAGE GAPS OF L2 (SECOND LANGUAGE) TEACHERS BY OPTIMIZING THEIR SELF-AWARENESS." In International Conference on Education and New Developments. inScience Press, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.36315/2022v1end112.

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"During a Canada-wide consultation session of teacher trainers for future teachers of French, Canada’s official second language (L2), given the problematic situation of unprepared candidates with questionable mastery of the language, some instructors even retreated to a position stating that these students need to be encouraged although they are struggling with French. What this implies is placing role models in classes with inaccurate French, repeating the same situation if not making it even worse as indeed early French immersion is still the chosen protocol by Canadian non-French speaking parents. Young children absorb language like sponges repeating their teacher and if their French is inaccurate, learning the mistakes. What is however of more crucial importance is not to replicate language programs delivery from which learners emerge without sufficient mastery to make themselves understood because of inaccurately learnt language forms. Therefore, we have to uncover remedies to properly guide all learners, through strategies and techniques for their individual management of the language they are trying to acquire-learn. We want to ensure an economy of time in teaching programs with efficient contact times. Revisiting language programme approaches to uncover what was advocated for error correction, we looked at actional attention (Ellis, 1992), work on noticing (Fotos, 1993), markedness (Larsen-Freeman, 2018), interference (Abdullah & Jackson, 1998) interlanguage theory (Selinker, 1972), the monitor model (Krashen, 1982) and recent types of approaches, namely notional functional, communicative, and action-oriented. As well, we gleaned insights from a review of the literature on strategies and techniques including Raab, (1982) on spectator hypothesis with feedback to the whole class; through peer correction by Cheveneth, Chun and Luppesku (1983); with other innovative techniques suggested by Edge (1983); techniques advocated by Vigil and Oller (1976) for oral correction; and correction across modalities (Rixon, 1993). We will report on a qualitative study (Creswell & Poth, 2018) based on an analysis of instructor’s notes regarding the observed effect on some of the strategies that were tried and across different student groups. In this study, notes on how the instructor devised ways of drawing attention and using metacognition to obtain the best results are examined. In addition, ways involving the affective domain, through emotions and also using innovative ways through disruptions etc. were tried to see if they provided a further impact. Students reported that they appreciated the corrective feedback the way it was dispensed. However results show a variety of concerns, namely the problem with deeply fossilized errors, some students’ being over confident about their language ability, and either a deep concern for making errors that is paralyzing or a belief that over time correction will take place in interlanguage development without making any effort. Due to page limitations, in this paper we will essentially present overarching aspects."

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Mangold, David, and Ryan Huntley. "Utilizing Modern Data and Technologies for Pipeline Risk Assessment." In 2016 11th International Pipeline Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/ipc2016-64128.

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Risk management of gas and hazardous liquid pipeline systems is a core element of US integrity management regulations (49 CFR part 192, subpart O; 49 CFR 195.452) and a challenging responsibility facing operators worldwide. The importance of health, safety, and environmental protection demands a continuous evolution of industry expectations, practices, and regulations, with regulators and operators invariably seeking ways to advance risk modeling methodologies for pipeline risk assessment. The evolution to more advanced risk modeling methodologies marks a transitional trend from simple, relative risk models to robust, quantitative risk models. A common challenge when implementing a more advanced risk model is supplying sufficient supporting data. This challenge highlights a necessary, parallel progression; the expansion of data availability and improvement of data quality to support risk management. Many data resources have become available to aid this progression through advancements in spatial processing, computational technologies, and data collection and availability across industries. Powerful analysis tools are now available to supply pressure loss, overland flow, liquid trace, and gas dispersion information to enhance risk modeling, along with a vast and increasing amount of publicly available data and statistics. Proper integration of this information can greatly reduce the challenges associated with the implementation of quantitative risk assessment and better support risk-based decision making. This paper details the availability and utilization of modem data and technologies for pipeline risk assessment. Examples are provided which illustrate the integration of data and technology resources to support a robust, quantitative risk model.

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Pandi Selvaraj, Sai Prabhakar, Renata W. Yen, Rachel C. Forcino, and Glyn Elwyn. "192 Using large language models to evaluate the offer of options in clinical encounters by using a single item of observer option-5, a measure of shared decision-making." In 12th International Shared Decision Making Conference. BMJ Publishing Group Ltd, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjebm-2024-sdc.191.

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Latorre, Robert. "Development of UNO Towing Tank, 1992-1995." In SNAME 24th American Towing Tank Conference. SNAME, 1995. http://dx.doi.org/10.5957/attc-1995-017.

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This paper summaries developments in the University of New Orleans (UNO) Towing Tank equipment/facilities over the period of June, 1992 to October, 1995. During these three years seven items of towing tank and model making equipment were acquired and/or brought on line.

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Ash, Jason T., Lidvin Kjerengtroen, William M. Cross, and Jon J. Kellar. "Estimation of the True Interfacial Shear Strength for Composite Materials With the Microbond Test." In ASME 2013 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/imece2013-62981.

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Conservative estimates of the true interfacial shear strength (IFSS) were obtained by applying the Coulomb-Mohr failure theory to microbond test data in this combined experimental and computational study. Experimentally, interfacial strengths of unsaturated polyester on untreated and silane treated optical glass fibers were measured with an axisymmetric microbond test system. Commonly reported average IFSS values were 6.51 MPa for untreated fibers and 8.01 MPa for silane treated fibers with coefficients of variation that ranged from 9.7–22%, which was an improvement from the previous parallel blade system that ranged from 17–66%. Axisymmetric finite element analysis (FEA) was completed with the aid of a Microbond Input Generator program that reduced model development and analysis time by 97% from 1000 minutes to under 30 minutes making this feasible to perform FEA on every experimental microbond sample. FEA models include the complex microbond bead geometry, contact loading conditions, and constituent material properties measured according to ASTM standards. Application of the Coulomb-Mohr failure theory revealed a conservative estimate of the true IFSS in the absence of compressive radial stresses to be 19.2 MPa for untreated fibers and 25.1 MPa for silane treated fibers. Comparisons are also made with the maximum IFSS value.

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Jati, Pandu Prabowo, Ade Anggi Naluriawan Santoso, Ahmad Nurkholis Sani, and Muhammad Phanterektus Kumar. "Basic Sediment and Water (BSW) Artificial Intelligence Integration in Heavy Oil Steam Flood Central Gathering Station Facilities Through Machine Learning Regression Model Implementation." In SPE/IATMI Asia Pacific Oil & Gas Conference and Exhibition. SPE, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/215287-ms.

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Abstract The Delta field, once at its peak production in 1992 with 290,000 barrels of oil per day and a daily steam flood injection of 1 million barrels, is now experiencing a significant decline in production. Operational challenges persist and are compounded by the complex integrated facility system in the Delta Field. These challenges include production measurement, treatment, steam generation, steam distribution injection, water disposal, and injection network. Dynamic operations involving steam distribution and well stimulation activities lead to fluctuations and changes in temperature-fluid characteristics. Moreover, the treatment of heavy oil from the Delta Field is difficult due to its high viscosity and the presence of emulsion stabilizers such as asphaltenes, organic acids, and generated sand. Managing BSW (Basic Sediment & Water) has become increasingly challenging due to the complexity of operations and the extended production period of over 30 years since peak production. To address this, a BSW prediction tool was developed, utilizing existing data infrastructure to enhance processing facilities’ ability to manage BSW more effectively compared to previous practices. Previously, operators could only respond to increased BSW levels without an online prediction tool. The developed tool utilizes AI (Artificial Intelligence) and Data Science (DS) models to predict BS&W values with a remarkable R2 value of 0.945. However, challenges arise during data integration and preparation, including data supply for model training, data acquisition techniques, and measurement capabilities. Fortunately, the final DS/AI Model can provide an early warning up to 2 days before potential BSW upsets, improving safety performance in treating high-risk steam systems by enabling prompt decision-making, reducing errors, and increasing efficiency. As a result, the average percentage of BSW upset cases per year has significantly decreased from 15.08% to 1.05%. Overall, the application of this technology has led to improved management of BS&W. In this paper, we will present an overview of recent collaborative initiatives that utilize data science and machine learning-artificial intelligence as an alternative solution to address the challenges related to BSW quality in the crude oil process separation of Indonesia's steam flood operation in the Delta Field. The project team's findings suggest that the adoption of DS-AI holds great promise in unlocking additional optimization opportunities in oil and gas processing, capitalizing on the vast and expanding dataset available.

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Raporty organizacyjne na temat "Models and model making, 1952"

Nelson, Daniel, and Dean Foster. Filtering and Forecasting with Misspecified Arch Models II: Making the Right Forecast with the Wrong Model. National Bureau of Economic Research, 1992. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/t0132.

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Barhak, Jacob. Supplemental Information: The Reference Model is a Multi-Scale Ensemble Model of COVID-19. Outbreak, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.34235/b7eaa32b-1a6b-444f-9848-76f83f5a733c.

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The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated research worldwide and resulted in a large number of computational models and initiatives. Models were mostly aimed at forecast and resulted in different predictions partially since models were based on different assumptions. In fact the idea that a computational model is just an assumption attempting to explain a phenomenon has not been sufficiently explored. Moreover, the ability to combine models has not been fully realized. The Reference Model for disease progression was performing this task for years for diabetes models and recently started modeling COVID-19. The Reference Model is an ensemble of models that is optimized to fit observed disease phenomenon. The ensemble has the ability to include model components from different sources that compete and cooperate. The recent advance in this model is the ability to include models calculated in different scales, making the model the first known multi-scale ensemble model. This manuscript will review these capabilities and show how multiple models can improve our ability to comprehend the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Messina, Francesca, Ioannis Georgiou, Melissa Baustian, et al. Real-time forecasting model development work plan. Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.), 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/47599.

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The objective of the Lowermost Mississippi River Management Program is to move the nation toward more holistic management of the lower reaches of the Mississippi River through the development and use of a science-based decision-making framework. There has been substantial investment in the last decade to develop multidimensional numerical models to evaluate the Lowermost Mississippi River (LMMR) hydrodynamics, sediment transport, and salinity dynamics. The focus of this work plan is to leverage the existing scientific knowledge and models to improve holistic management of the LMMR. Specifically, this work plan proposes the development of a real-time forecasting (RTF) system for water, sediment, and selected nutrients in the LMMR. The RTF system will help inform and guide the decision-making process for operating flood-control and sediment-diversion structures. This work plan describes the primary components of the RTF system and their interactions. The work plan includes descriptions of the existing tools and numerical models that could be leveraged to develop this system together with a brief inventory of existing real-time data that could be used to validate the RTF system. A description of the tasks that would be required to develop and set up the RTF system is included together with an associated timeline.

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Carrillo, Carra, S. McKay, Safra Altman, and Todd Swannack. Ecological model development : Toolkit for interActive Modeling (TAM). Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.), 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/45101.

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Ecological models provide crucial tools for informing many aspects of ecosystem restoration and management, ranging from increasing understanding of complex ecological functions to prioritizing restoration sites and quantifying benefits for project reporting. The diversity of ecosystem types and restoration objectives often precludes the use of existing models; as such, model development is commonly required to inform restoration decision-making. Index-based habitat models are a common approach for assessing ecosystem condition. These models relate habitat quality to species’ distributions. Habitat suitability (quality) typically ranges on a scale from 0 to 1. Habitat models have been developed to assess habitat suitability for specific taxa, communities, or ecosystem functions. Restoration-project timelines often require that these models be developed rapidly and in conjunction with many external stakeholders or partners. Here, the Toolkit for interActive Modeling (TAM) is proposed as a platform for rapidly developing index-based models, particularly for US Army Corps of Engineers’ (USACE) ecosystem-restoration or mitigation planning processes. The TAM is a consistent quantitative framework that allows for development of a generic platform for index-based model development.

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Harris, Aubrey, Nathan Richards, and S. McKay. Defining levels of effort for ecological models. Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.), 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/47642.

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While models are useful tools for decision-making in environmental management, the question arises about the level of effort required to develop an effective model for a given application. In some cases, it is unclear whether more analysis would lead to choosing a better course of action. This technical note (TN) examines the role of ecological model complexity in ecosystem management. First, model complexity is examined through the lens of risk informed planning. Second, a framework is presented for categorizing five different levels of effort that range from conceptual models to detailed predictive tools. This framework is proposed to enhance communication and provide consistency in ecological modeling applications. Third, the level of effort framework is applied to a set of models in the Middle Rio Grande River system to demonstrate the framework’s utility and application. Ultimately, this TN seeks to guide planners in determining an appropriate level of effort relative to risks associated with uncertainty and resource availability for a given application.

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Leis. L51866 Field Studies to Support SCC Life Prediction Model. Pipeline Research Council International, Inc. (PRCI), 1997. http://dx.doi.org/10.55274/r0010357.

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One objective of this project was to gather and analyze SCC field data on lines being retested for use in assessing the validity of current or future SCC models. The scope of this initial study was limited to colonies of SCC in one valve section of a pipeline that runs from Texas to the northeast of the United States. This valve section had an early history of high pH SCC. The susceptibility since has been controlled through hydrotesting and modifications to the gas compression to meet upstream demand while reducing the discharge temperature. In addition to collecting data to validate models of SCC, data were also developed to evaluate the suitability of a hand-held tool to measure the depth of SCC, because such results can be critical in the use of models in making serviceability and maintenance decisions.

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Gelain, Paolo, and Pierlauro Lopez. A DSGE Model Including Trend Information and Regime Switching at the ZLB. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-202335.

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This paper outlines the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model developed at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland as part of the suite of models used for forecasting and policy analysis by Cleveland Fed researchers, which we have nicknamed CLEMENTINE (CLeveland Equilibrium ModEl iNcluding Trend INformation and the Effective lower bound). This document adopts a practitioner's guide approach, detailing the construction of the model and offering practical guidance on its use as a policy tool designed to support decision-making through forecasting exercises and policy counterfactuals.

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Moore, Gabriel, Anton du Toit, Susie Thompson, and Jillian Hutchinson. Effectiveness of secondary triage models for residents of aged care facilities. The Sax Institute, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.57022/uvfy9478.

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This Evidence Snapshot provides a rapid review of the evidence around the effectiveness of secondary triage models for residents of aged care facilities. Models analysed included those with or without medical support, those with additional intervention in the residential aged care facilities (RACFs), and those with referral to vs collaboration with alternative services. Outcomes included were ED presentations, hospital admissions and ambulance demand. While the strength of the overall evidence is low, the strongest evidence was found for interventions in RACFs and a community-based early pre-hospital assessment model. The authors also looked at other outcomes of interest including cost-effectiveness; staffing, training and qualifications; and resident and patient participation in decision-making.

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Kumar, Kaushal, and Yupeng Wei. Attention-Based Data Analytic Models for Traffic Flow Predictions. Mineta Transportation Institute, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.31979/mti.2023.2211.

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Traffic congestion causes Americans to lose millions of hours and dollars each year. In fact, 1.9 billion gallons of fuel are wasted each year due to traffic congestion, and each hour stuck in traffic costs about $21 in wasted time and fuel. The traffic congestion can be caused by various factors, such as bottlenecks, traffic incidents, bad weather, work zones, poor traffic signal timing, and special events. One key step to addressing traffic congestion and identifying its root cause is an accurate prediction of traffic flow. Accurate traffic flow prediction is also important for the successful deployment of smart transportation systems. It can help road users make better travel decisions to avoid traffic congestion areas so that passenger and freight movements can be optimized to improve the mobility of people and goods. Moreover, it can also help reduce carbon emissions and the risks of traffic incidents. Although numerous methods have been developed for traffic flow predictions, current methods have limitations in utilizing the most relevant part of traffic flow data and considering the correlation among the collected high-dimensional features. To address this issue, this project developed attention-based methodologies for traffic flow predictions. We propose the use of an attention-based deep learning model that incorporates the attention mechanism with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) networks. This attention mechanism can calculate the importance level of traffic flow data and enable the model to consider the most relevant part of the data while making predictions, thus improving accuracy and reducing prediction duration.

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Herman, Brook, Todd Swannack, Molly Reif, Nathan Richards, Tomma Barnes, and Candice Piercy. Framework for a general restoration model for ecosystems with anadromous fish for U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Phase 1 : conceptual model development. Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.), 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/46645.

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Salmonid species are critically important ecologically, socially, and economically for North American coastal regions. Alterations to the structure (e.g., channelization) and function (e.g., sediment transport) of estuaries, rivers, and streams have greatly impacted these species, many are now listed as federally threatened or endangered. As part of environmental compliance procedures and policy, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) is required to assess the impacts and/or benefits of proposed water resource projects (e.g., levee maintenance, ecosystem restoration, etc.) to the environment. The USACE is required to predict and quantify environmental benefits using models to justify federal investment in ecosystem restoration projects. The purpose of this effort is to develop a general model or model framework that can be used during the USACE planning process that will serve as a unified standard Salmonid model. The primary purpose of the model will be to project future environmental benefits that will result from proposed restoration measures. Additionally, the model needs to be sensitive to different combinations of restoration measures in order to assist the USCAE in the planning and decision making process. This report presents the results of the first phase of model development using the mediated model development process.

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