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Rozprawy doktorskie na temat „Vector autoregression”

Autor: Grafiati

Data publikacji: 4 czerwca 2021

Data aktualizacji: 25 lipca 2025

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1

Dutta, Bordoloi Suwodi. "Interdependence of US Industry Sectors Using Vector Autoregression." Digital WPI, 2009. https://digitalcommons.wpi.edu/etd-theses/1073.

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"In this study, we explore the interdependence among different US industries by examining their correlations of the stock portfolios. Furthermore, we focus on the dynamics of their interdependent relations during peaceful and volatile periods; as such relations may change due to different sensitivities of each industry to the macroeconomic conditions. More specifically, we apply Vector Autoregression (VAR) methodology on the US industry portfolios and we use variance decomposition and generalized impulse response functions to identify the strength of the impact of each industry on the others.

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Brännström, Tomas. "Bias approximation and reduction in vector autoregressive models /." Stockholm : Economic Research Institute, Stockholm School of Economics [Ekonomiska forskningsinstitutet vid Handelshögsk.] (EFI), 1995. http://www.hhs.se/efi/summary/405.

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Jeon, Kyung-Seong. "An examination of stock market properties : vector autoregression approach /." free to MU campus, to others for purchase, 1997. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/mo/fullcit?p9841304.

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Unosson, Måns. "A Mixed Frequency Steady-State Bayesian Vector Autoregression: Forecasting the Macroeconomy." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Statistiska institutionen, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-297406.

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This thesis suggests a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) model which allows for explicit parametrization of the unconditional mean for data measured at different frequencies, without the need to aggregate data to the lowest common frequency. Using a normal prior for the steady-state and a normal-inverse Wishart prior for the dynamics and error covariance, a Gibbs sampler is proposed to sample the posterior distribution. A forecast study is performed using monthly and quarterly data for the US macroeconomy between 1964 and 2008. The proposed model is compared to a steady-state Bayesian VAR m

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5

Zhang, Wei. "A sensitivity study on identification schemes of the structural vector autoregression /." free to MU campus, to others for purchase, 2001. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/mo/fullcit?p3025669.

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Petrov, Krassimir M. "Forecasting the dairy price complex : an application of Bayesian Vector autoregression modelling /." The Ohio State University, 2000. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1488193272066522.

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Brännström, Tomas. "Bias approximation and reduction in vector autoregressive models." Doctoral thesis, Handelshögskolan i Stockholm, Ekonomisk Statistik (ES), 1995. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hhs:diva-878.

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In the last few decades, vector autoregressive (VAR) models have gained tremendous popularity as an all-purpose tool in econometrics and other disciplines. Some of their most prominent uses are for forecasting, causality tests, tests of economic theories, hypothesis-seeking, data characterisation, innovation accounting, policy analysis, and cointegration analysis. Their popularity appears to be attributable to their flexibility relative to other models rather than to their virtues per se. In addition, analysts often use VAR models as benchmark models. VAR modeling has not gone uncriticised, th

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8

Jordanov, Jordan V. "The size anomaly in the London Stock Exchange : an empirical investigation." Thesis, Loughborough University, 1998. https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/7067.

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This study tests the size effect in the London Stock Exchange, using data for all nonfinancial listed firms from January 1985 to December 1995. The initial tests indicate that average stock returns are negatively related to firm size and that small firm portfolios earn returns in excess of the market risk. Further, the study tests whether the size effect is a proxy for variables such as the Book-to- Market Value and the Borrowing Ratio, as well as the impact of the dividend and the Bid- Ask spread on the return of the extreme size portfolios. The originality of this study is in the application

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9

White, Alexander B. "Pre- and post-retirement asset allocation: a simulation of retirement investment strategies for agricultural producers." Diss., Virginia Tech, 1995. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/38097.

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This research simulates pre-retirement investment scenarios for agricultural producers. Thirty-two investment scenarios are examined, with each scenario differing with respect to retirement vehicle, investment strategy of the producer, and the use of a cash margin for reinvestment in the operation versus prepaying term debt (cash preference). The retirement vehicles included in this study are Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs), Simplified Employee Pension Plans (SEPs), and 401(k) plans. Investment strategies reflect the producer's preference for investing in conservative, balanced, or aggre

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10

Brüggemann, Ralf. "Model reduction methods for vector autoregressive processes /." Berlin [u.a.] : Springer, 2004. http://www.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy0818/2003067373-d.html.

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Wong, Kin-man, and 黃健文. "A vector autoregression (VAR) model of housing starts and housing price in Hong Kong." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10722/194603.

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It is observed that there are many different models about housing price. Yet, this is relatively smaller number of studies about housing starts. This thesis is an empirical study to work out the relationship between housing starts, housing price and other economic and policy instrumental factors. To achieve this objective, a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model is built since there is inter-relationship between housing starts and housing price. By applying previous models filled with the research gaps, a new VAR model about the housing starts and housing price in Hong Kong is built. Four hypot

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12

Cheong, Onn Kee. "A Study of the Interdependence of Four Major Stock Markets Using a Vector Autoregression." Thesis, University of North Texas, 1989. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc500682/.

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The question for this thesis is whether the four major stock markets--the United States, Great Britain, West Germany, and Japan are interdependent or segmented. The study period runs from February 1979 to June 1987, with the Wall Street Journal as a source of data. The Granger causality test is used to test for relationships among the four major stock markets. The thesis is divided into five chapters-- 1) statement of the problem; 2) survey of literature; 3) methodology; 4) results and 5) conclusions. The overall findings of this thesis indicate that there are few or no comovement similarities

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13

Sharp, Gary David. "Lag length selection for vector error correction models." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002808.

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This thesis investigates the problem of model identification in a Vector Autoregressive framework. The study reviews the existing research, conducts an extensive simulation based analysis of thirteen information theoretic criterion (IC), one of which is a novel derivation. The simulation exercise considers the evaluation of seven alternative error restricted vector autoregressive models with four different lag lengths. Alternative sample sizes and parameterisations are also evaluated and compared to results in the existing literature. The results of the comparative analysis provide strong supp

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14

Lee, Joo Young, and Youn Mi Lee. "Dynamic Impact of Aging on Income Inequality in the U.S. with Vector Autoregressive Model." Digital Commons @ East Tennessee State University, 2020. https://dc.etsu.edu/secfr-conf/2020/schedule/57.

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Income inequality has been showing a steady increase for past decades and will be worsened in the future (Piketty, 2014). One of the most important factors to explain the worsening income inequality can be aging. Previous studies on aging focus on its impact on traditional issues such as health, retirement, and economic growth. This study finds the direct relationship between aging and income inequality using the vector autoregressive (VAR) model (Blanchard and Quah, 1989). The VAR model is useful to analyze the long-run response of aging on income inequality. The empirical results will verify

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15

Afonso, Ana Catarina Leitão. "Bond fund runs: The financial crisis case." Master's thesis, NSBE - UNL, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/11686.

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A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics<br>This paper studies the monthly flows of bond fund geographically focused on Europe and on the United States in the period between 2002 and 2012, with special attention to the effect of the financial crisis of 2008. Through the usage of the panel quantile regression model, this study aims to identify which funds, in terms of their characteristics, are more likely to suffer a run. The main finding is that the impact of the characteristics of fund

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16

Gilleran, Sean. "Online Regime Switching Vector Autoregression Incorporating Spatio-temporal Aspects for Short Term Wind Power Forecasting." Thesis, KTH, Elkraftteknik, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-217117.

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This master thesis examines short term wind power forecasting time series models focusing on regimes conditioned to meteorological conditions and the incorporation of spatio-temporal aspects. Novel regime switching autoregressive and vector autoregressive models are proposed, implemented in a .NET framework, and evaluated. The vector autoregressive framework takes advantage of cross-correlation between sites incorporating upstream online production information from all wind farms within a given region. The regimes are formed using K-means clustering based on forecast meteorological conditions.

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17

Barassi, Marco Raffaele. "Identifying causal structures of cointegrated vector autoregression with an application to the G7 interest rates." Thesis, Imperial College London, 2001. http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/8719.

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18

Singh, Isha. "Reinforcement Learning For Multiple Time Series." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2019. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1573223551346074.

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19

Andersson, Sebastian. "On the Specification of Local Models in a Global Vector Autoregression: A Comparison of Markov-Switching Alternatives." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Statistiska institutionen, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-226918.

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In this paper, focus is on the global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model. Its attractiveness stems from an ability to incorporate global interdependencies when modeling local economies. The model is based on a collection of local models, which in general are estimated as regular VAR models. This paper examines alternative specifications of the local models by estimating them as regime-switching VAR models, where transition probabilities between different states are studied using both constant and time-varying settings. The results show that regime-switching models are appealing as they yield i

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20

Abdul-Hadi, Ahmad Ibrahim Malawi. "The impact of monetary policy on consumer durable goods : empirical study by using vector autoregression (VAR) models /." free to MU campus, to others for purchase, 1999. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/mo/fullcit?p9953841.

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Lytsenko, M., Тетяна Олександрівна Маринич, Татьяна Александровна Маринич, and Tetiana Oleksandrivna Marynych. "Econometric modeling of nonstationary processes." Thesis, Karazin National University, 2015. http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/68631.

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Econometric research of nonstationary time series on causality, cointegration relation and adequate simulation methods was conducted. VAR and VEC models were found to be the most appropriate ways to make reliable prediction and scenario analysis of macro financial data under unstable economic conditions. These econometric techniques were approbated on the financial indicators of Ukrainian economy.

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22

Crawford, Claudia. "The Sectoral Impact of Monetary Policy in Australia: A Structural VAR Approach." Thesis, Discipline of Economics, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/2123/2293.

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In recent years, the global resources boom has had a major impact on the Australian economy. In the mining rich state of Western Australia, rapid commodity price growth has contributed to strong economic conditions. However, state economies that rely heavily on manufacturing industries have fared less well, forced to cope with higher input costs as well as the effects of a stronger exchange rate. The resulting 'two-speed economy' presents a challenge for monetary policy, which must manage the diverging performances of different sectors and regions. In light of these issues, this thesis develop

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23

Modin, Johan. "An Interest Rate Benumbed : Evidence from a structural VAR; can a structural break be found in recent monetary policy transmission?" Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Nationalekonomiska institutionen, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-376792.

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The reliability of monetary policy as an economic stabilisation tool depends on the understanding of the empirical effects of policy intervention on macroeconomic aggregates. Since investigating the interdependencies between macroeconomic variables necessarily involves studying their interactions over time, time series analysis is an important tool. This thesis sets out to examine the presence and effects of nonstationarity in the form of a structural break in a basic VAR of four endogenous variables. Specifically, the transmission of a monetary policy shock on the macroeconomic aggregate of 1

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Kalmár, Marcus, and Joel Nilsson. "The art of forecasting – an analysis of predictive precision of machine learning models." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Statistiska institutionen, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-280675.

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Forecasting is used for decision making and unreliable predictions can instill a false sense of condence. Traditional time series modelling is astatistical art form rather than a science and errors can occur due to lim-itations of human judgment. In minimizing the risk of falsely specifyinga process the practitioner can make use of machine learning models. Inan eort to nd out if there's a benet in using models that require lesshuman judgment, the machine learning models Random Forest and Neural Network have been used to model a VAR(1) time series. In addition,the classical time series models A

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25

Sumner, Steven W. "Bank equity and the monetary transmission mechanism /." Diss., Connect to a 24 p. preview or request complete full text in PDF format. Access restricted to UC campuses, 2003. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/ucsd/fullcit?p3099930.

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Ribeiro, Teresinha Pontes. "Analysis of monetary policy on the collection of VAT in the state of Ceara using the model of vector autoregression." Universidade Federal do CearÃ, 2010. http://www.teses.ufc.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=4773.

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nÃo hÃ<br>This research aims to analyze quantitatively the impact of monetary policy promoted by the Central Bank of Brazil on the behavior of the tax revenue of ICMS in CearÃ. Thus, we considered information on the collection of industrial, retail and electric, beyond the rate of open unemployment in Fortaleza, and how the transmission mechanism of monetary policy used the Selic interest rate. The model used here is composed of vector autoregression and arguments based on Toda and Yamamoto (1995), and impulse response functions and variance decomposition. The results suggest that a positive s

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Pilström, Patrick, and Sebastian Pohl. "Forecasting GDP Growth : The Case of The Baltic States." Thesis, Jönköping University, JIBS, Economics, 2009. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-9776.

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<p>The purpose of this thesis is to identify a general model to forecast GDP growth for the Baltic States, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. If the model provides reliable results for these states, then the model should be able to forecast GDP growth for other countries of interest. Forecasts are made by using a reduced vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The VAR models make use of past values of Gross Domestic Product-Inflation-Unemployment as explanatory variables.</p><p>The performed forecasts have provided good results for horizons up to t+8. The forecasts for 2009 (t+12) are in line with thos

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Ozdemir, Duygu. "Stock Market Liquidity Analysis: Evidence From The Istanbul Stock Exchange." Master's thesis, METU, 2011. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12613789/index.pdf.

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The purpose of this thesis is to identify the factors playing a key role in the determination of the Turkish stock market liquidity in aggregate terms in a time series context and discuss the joint dynamics of the market-wide liquidity with its selected determinants and the trade volume. The main determinants tested are the level of return, the return volatility and the monetary stance of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. The expected positive relationship between the liquidity and the return is confirmed, while the negative effect of the volatility on liquidity appears one-week lat

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An, Lian. "THREE ESSAYS ON EXCHANGE RATE AND MONETARY POLICY." UKnowledge, 2006. http://uknowledge.uky.edu/gradschool_diss/491.

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There are four chapters in my dissertation. Chapter one gives a brief introduction of the three essays. Chapter two empirically analyzes the interaction among conventional monetary policy, foreign exchange intervention and the exchange rate in a unifying model for Japan. I have several findings. First, the results lend support to the leaning-against-the-wind hypothesis. Second, conventional monetary policy has as great influence on the exchange rate as foreign exchange intervention in Japan. Third, intervention in Japan is ineffective or may be counter-effective, so escaping liquidity trap by

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Lennman, Oscar. "The Fiscal Spending Multiplier in a Panel of OECD Countries." Thesis, Umeå universitet, Nationalekonomi, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-129233.

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This thesis sets out to explain the relationship between fiscal spending and economic growth. The relationship is established using a panel vector autoregression model estimated by GMM, using GDP growth and government spending on a panel of 30 OECD countries. The model used is tested with slight variations in specification which are concluded to be important in the finalized results. By altering the specification used in the model this thesis produces relatively different sizes on the multiplier effect both in the short run and in the long run effect. The size of the multiplier effect produced

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Dong, Juntao. "Reinforcement Learning for Multiple Time Series: Forex Trading Application." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2020. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1613745680121778.

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Sålder, Christofer. "In search of a smoking gun : The repo rate’s effect on household debt-to-income ratio." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Nationalekonomiska institutionen, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-217562.

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The Swedish households’ debt relative to income has increased for some time now, with the Riksbanks’ executive board expressing its concern for the risk it brings. It has been debated whether or not to take the high indebtedness into account when setting the policy rate. There is at the same time no consensus about the relationship between the repo rate and household debt. This study aims to examine the effect of a change in the repo rate on household debt-to-income ratio, using a VAR-model. The result is that a 1 percentage point shock to the repo rate for one quarter will have a negative imp

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33

Hallberg, David, and Erik Renström. "PC Regression, Vector Autoregression, and Recurrent Neural Networks: How do they compare when predicting stock index returns for building efficient portfolios?" Thesis, KTH, Optimeringslära och systemteori, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-252557.

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This thesis examines the statistical and economic performance of modeling and predicting equity index returns by application of various statistical models on a set of macroeconomic and financial variables. By combining linear principal component regression, vector autoregressive models, and LSTM neural networks, the authors find that while a majority of the models display high statistical significance, virtually none of them successfully outperform classic portfolio theory on efficient markets in terms of risk-adjusted returns. Several implications are also discussed based on the results.<br>D

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Gudmundsson, Gudmundur Stefan. "Essays in network modelling." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/663096.

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This thesis consists of two chapters on time series modelling. The ﬁrst chapter introduces a class of vector autoregressive (VAR) models with a community structure for large panels of time series. In the model, the series are parti-tioned into latent groups such that spillovers are stronger within groups than between them. We then propose an algorithm that uses the eigenvectors of a function of the estimated autoregressive matrices to recover the communities. We study the properties of the procedure and establish its consistency. The algorithm motivates us to suggest a regularised VAR estimato

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Fernandes, Pedro Manuel Ribeiro. "The role of banks in economic growth : an empirical application to Portugal." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/19408.

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Mestrado em Economia Monetária e Financeira<br>Esta dissertação avalia o contributo dos bancos para o crescimento económico em Portugal desde a adopção do Euro, usando testes de cointegração e causalidade, bem como funções de resposta a impulsos. Usando rácios de passivos líquidos (depósitos) dos bancos e empréstimos em percentagem do PIB nominal como medidas do desenvolvimento financeiro, encontramos forte evidência de que o crescimento económico exerce um impacto positivo no desenvolvimento financeiro, de acordo com Demetriades e Hussein (1996). Concluiu-se também que os empréstimos bancário

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36

Duong, Thithuy Nga. "Ciblage de l'inflation et politique monétaire au Vietnam." Thesis, Lyon 2, 2012. http://www.theses.fr/2012LYO22020.

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Le ciblage de l’inflation est le cadre le plus récent de la politique monétaire dans le monde. Il est désormais largement choisi par les pays avancés ainsi que par les pays émergents. Cependant, deux questions principales sont encore en débat particulièrement dans les pays émergent et en développement. Ils s’agissent des avantages du ciblage d’inflation et du respect de conditions préalables afin d’assurer le succès de ce régime. Empiriquement, on conclut que le ciblage d’inflation est un cadre de politique monétaire réussie pour les pays émergents. En plus, il n'est pas nécessaire pour ces pa

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Lundberg, Otto. "GDP forecasting and nowcasting : Utilizing a system for averaging models to improve GDP predictions for six countries around the world." Thesis, Umeå universitet, Institutionen för matematik och matematisk statistik, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-131718.

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This study was issued by Swedbank because they wanted too improve their GDP growth forecast capabilites. A program was developed and tested on six countries; USA, Sweden, Germany, UK, Brazil and Norway. In this paper I investigate if I can reduce forecasting error for GDP growth by taking a smart average from a variety of models compared to both the best individual models and a random walk. I combine the forecasts from four model groups: Vector autoregression, principal component analysis, machine learning and random walk. The smart average is given by a system that give more weight to the pr

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Hassanzadeh, Mohammadtaghi. "A New State Transition Model for Forecasting-Aided State Estimation for the Grid of the Future." Diss., Virginia Tech, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/64407.

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The grid of the future will be more decentralized due to the significant increase in distributed generation, and microgrids. In addition, due to the proliferation of large-scale intermittent wind power, the randomness in power system state will increase to unprecedented levels. This dissertation proposes a new state transition model for power system forecasting-aided state estimation, which aims at capturing the increasing stochastic nature in the states of the grid of the future. The proposed state forecasting model is based on time-series modeling of filtered system states and it takes spati

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Wang, Ruolin. "Essays on the information flow between equity and credit markets: Before, during and after the financial crisis." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2020. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/200152/1/Ruolin_Wang_Thesis.pdf.

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This thesis examines the information flow between equity, credit default swap (CDS) and bond markets between 2003 and 2017 using firm-level data for developed and emerging countries. The findings suggest that the information flow between financial markets is dependent on the market condition. The research demonstrates that the relationship between equity and credit markets has been restructured since the global financial crisis with more rapid adjustment of CDS market to equity market returns. The strength of interaction between equity and credit markets is found to be related to the creditwor

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Perez, Tomas Rene. "Oil Price and the Stock Market: A Structural VAR Model Identified with an External Instrument." Miami University / OhioLINK, 2020. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=miami1595877677072786.

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Achsani, Noer Azam, and Hans Gerhard Strohe. "Dynamische Zusammenhänge zwischen den Kapitalmärkten der Region Pazifisches Becken vor und nach der Asiatischen Krise 1997." Universität Potsdam, 2002. http://opus.kobv.de/ubp/volltexte/2007/1214/.

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Dynamische Zusammenhänge zwischen den internationalen Kapitelmärkten sind seit Anfang 90-er Jahre erforscht worden. Die meisten dieser Untersuchungen betrafen dieUSA und die anderen entwickelnden Märkte. Es gibt nur wenige Untersuchungen zu diesem Thema in den sich entwickelnden Märkten. Mit Hilfe von vektorautoregressiven(VAR) Modellen überprüft diese Arbeit den dynamischen Zusammenhang zwischen den Börsen der Region Pazifisches Becken vor und nach der Asiatischen Krise 1997.Unsere Studie zeigt, dass alle Börsen in der Region Asien-Pazifik mit den anderen Börsen statistisch zusammenhängen, mi

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42

Dahlberg, Magnus, and Gombrii Anders. "Vart är kronan på väg? : Utmaningen med växelkursprognoser - en jämförelse av prognosmodeller." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Nationalekonomiska institutionen, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-439138.

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Riksbanken har under senaste åren blivit kritiserade för deras bristande prognoser av svenska valutakurser. I denna uppsats undersöks det om slumpvandring (RW) är den mest framgångsrika prognosmodellen eller om alternativa ekonometriska prognosmodeller (AR, VAR och VECM) kan estimera framtida växelkurser mer korrekt på kort sikt, ett kvartal fram, och medellång sikt, fyra kvartal fram. I dessa prognosmodeller behandlas fem Svenska makroekonomiska variabler som endogena; KPI, BNP, arbetslöshet, 3 månaders statsobligationer (T-bonds), samt en exogen variabel, Amerikansk-BNP. Den data som används

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naz, saima. "Forecasting daily maximum temperature of Umeå." Thesis, Umeå universitet, Institutionen för matematik och matematisk statistik, 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-112404.

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The aim of this study is to get some approach which can help in improving the predictions of daily temperature of Umeå. Weather forecasts are available through various sources nowadays. There are various software and methods available for time series forecasting. Our aim is to investigate the daily maximum temperatures of Umeå, and compare the performance of some methods in forecasting these temperatures. Here we analyse the data of daily maximum temperatures and find the predictions for some local period using methods of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), exponential smoothing

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Akpan, Nkereuwem I. "The Impact of External Shocks on Nigeria’s GDP Performance within the Context of the Global Financial Crisis." Thesis, University of Bradford, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10454/17454.

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This research examines the impact of external shocks on Nigeria’s output performance for the period 1981 – 2015. It aims to bring to the fore the importance of considering external shocks during policy design and implementation. The multivariate VAR and VECM frameworks were used to evaluate the impact of the shock variables on Nigeria’s output performance and to achieve the stated objectives. Findings show that the external shock and domestic policy variables have short-run effects on Nigeria’s output performance. Also, all the measures of external shocks and domestic policies display some via

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Kim, Gil. "THREE ESSAYS ON EXCHANGE RATE ECONOMICS." UKnowledge, 2009. http://uknowledge.uky.edu/gradschool_diss/752.

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A country’s economy is becoming more and more dynamic and complicated in its scale and mobility. So, the concerns of exchange rate economics have become more popular. My research interest is in international economics with its major factor, exchange rates and other macroeconomic variables. Chapter 1 presents a brief introduction of the three studies. Chapter Two investigate the role of exchange rate changes with particular attention to international capital flows. With liberalization of capital movements, international capital movements became free and unrestricted in many emerging market econ

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Wichmann, Roberta Moreira. "Ensaios econométricos sobre política fiscal no Brasil." reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRGS, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/54598.

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O presente artigo apresenta um estudo econométrico da política fiscal brasileira com o objetivo de avaliar, no período que se estende de 2001 a 2010 utilizando dados mensais, como os diferentes componentes da política fiscal respondem à dinâmica do produto. Primeiramente é feito a identificação e a análise dos componentes da política: impulso fiscal e regra fiscal seguindo a orientação de distintas metodologias (OCDE, FMI, método Holandês e filtro de Kalman). Dessa forma, é possível avaliar se a política é oportuna e ágil, observar qual o tamanho do impacto da resposta de cada componente a cho

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Chung, Joonho. "Empirical study on the effects of monetary policy on the exchange rates : the role of uncertainty in monetary policy /." free to MU campus, to others for purchase, 1998. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/mo/fullcit?p9901229.

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Liu, Guangling. "Forecasting with DSGE models : the case of South Africa." Thesis, University of Pretoria, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/2263/25396.

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The objective of this thesis is to develop alternative forms of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models for forecasting the South African economy and, in turn, compare them with the forecasts generated by the Classical and Bayesian variants of the Vector Autoregression Models (VARs). Such a comparative analysis is aimed at developing a small-scale micro-founded framework that will help in forecasting the key macroeconomic variables of the economy. The thesis consists of three independent papers. The first paper develops a small-scale DSGE model based on Hansen's (1985) indivisible

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Karl, Velander, and Callerud Karin. "The development of the financialsystem and economic growth in Sweden : A Granger causality analysis." Thesis, Karlstads universitet, Handelshögskolan (from 2013), 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kau:diva-78703.

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Semião, Patrícia Margarida Floro. "Efeitos macroeconómicos do investimento público central e local: uma comparação internacional." Master's thesis, ISEG, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/21971.

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Mestrado em Economia.<br>O investimento público tem sido alvo de interesse por parte das investigações económicas mais recentes, enquanto uma variável que pode fomentar o crescimento económico. Através da observação dos seus impactos na economia, consegue-se compreender se os esforços empreendidos no investimento público são eventualmente produtivos. Este estudo pretende analisar essa produtividade, medindo os efeitos do investimento público no PIB, no investimento privado e no emprego, no longo prazo. A especificidade do exposto neste trabalho consiste numa desagregação diferente do investim

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